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Begin New Search Topic Conflict Prevention Political Geography Somalia Content Type Policy Brief Publishing Institution International Crisis Group

1. Somalia: The Tough Part Is Ahead

Publication Date:
01-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Somalia's Islamic Courts fell even more dramatically than they rose. In little more than a week in December 2006, Ethiopian and Somali Transitional Federal Government (TFG) forces killed hundreds of Islamist fighters and scattered the rest in a lightning offensive. On 27 December, the Council of Somali Islamic Courts in effect dissolved itself, surrendering political leadership to clan leaders. This was a major success for Ethiopia and the U.S. who feared emergence of a Taliban-style haven for al-Qaeda and other Islamist extremists, but it is too early to declare an end to Somalia's woes. There is now a political vacuum across much of southern Somalia, which the ineffectual TFG is unable to fill. Elements of the Courts, including Shabaab militants and their al- Qaeda associates, are largely intact and threaten guerrilla war. Peace requires the TFG to be reconstituted as a genuine government of national unity but the signs of its willingness are discouraging. Sustained international pressure is needed.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Government, and Religion
Political Geography:
Africa, Taliban, Ethiopia, and Somalia

2. Can the Somalia Crisis Be Contained?

Publication Date:
08-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Somalia has been drifting toward a new war since the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) was formed in late 2004 but the trend has recently accelerated dramatically. The stand-off between the TFG and its Ethiopian ally on the one hand, and the Islamic Courts, which now control Mogadishu, on the other, threatens to escalate into a wider conflict that would consume much of the south, destabilise peaceful territories like Somaliland and Puntland and possibly involve terrorist attacks in neighbouring countries unless urgent efforts are made by both sides and the international community to put together a government of national unity.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Security, and Politics
Political Geography:
Africa, Ethiopia, and Somalia