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  • Author: Francesco Paolo Mongelli
  • Publication Date: 12-2010
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Centre for European Policy Studies
  • Abstract: The headwinds facing the euro area are many and substantial: there is no pretence of denial. While most attention is correctly devoted to the size of rescue packages for some countries and the terms of crisis management and resolution mechanisms, we argue that these challenges must also be met from within the euro area. We are aided by a simple framework illustrating how the benefits the euro can generate depend on the degree of openness, flexibility and income correlation among euro area countries. Sharing the euro has steadily transformed euro area economies that are now deeply interconnected. This is generating largely benign effects that represent the intrinsic value of the euro area: it is a shared asset. Yet, such integration has provided the ground for the transmission of the sovereign crisis: through financial exposure, trade linkages and cross-country asset ownership.
  • Topic: Economics, Global Recession, Monetary Policy, Financial Crisis
  • Political Geography: Europe
  • Author: Daniel Gros, Stefano Micossi, Richard Baldwin, Giuliano Amato, Pier Carlo Padoan
  • Publication Date: 12-2010
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Centre for European Policy Studies
  • Abstract: Under current policies, the European Union will only be able to pull itself out of low growth and high unemployment very slowly – too slowly to exclude dangerous economic and political assaults on the Union's continuing cohesion and viability. What is needed is a substantial increase in the EU output growth rate, which has been persistently low for too long a time. With low growth, sovereign debt sustainability in a number of member states will remain uncertain, possibly leading to renewed strains in financial markets and rising spreads that will aggravate the costs of budgetary consolidation. The divergences in productivity and competitiveness and the current external imbalances they engendered can be unwound at an acceptable cost only if growth accelerates in the core and the periphery. On present trends, the adjustment burden might be unbearable for peripheral countries and generate strains that may eventually undermine the euro.
  • Topic: Economics, Regional Cooperation, Monetary Policy, Governance
  • Political Geography: Europe
  • Author: Wan-Jung Chou, Alistair Hunt, Anil Markandya, Andrea Bigano, Roberta Pierfederici, Stephane La Branche
  • Publication Date: 11-2010
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Centre for European Policy Studies
  • Abstract: There is a decided movement in EU energy markets towards a deregulated framework. This framework, however, might lack the necessary incentive structure for generators to maintain high service reliability, thus increasing the risk of generation and transmission outages. Faced with such a challenge, it is crucial for policy-makers to envisage consumer valuation of service reliability in the future so that an acceptable combination of regulatory and economic tools can be applied to maintain adequate security of energy supply that is socially optimal and economically efficient.
  • Topic: Security, Energy Policy
  • Political Geography: Europe
  • Author: Michele Benini
  • Publication Date: 11-2010
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Centre for European Policy Studies
  • Abstract: Efficient development of electricity transmission infrastructure is crucial to achieving EU targets for a secure, competitive and sustainable electricity supply. However, many uncertainties, such as future load demand, generation supply, electricity prices and increasing time requirements for the realisation of transmission infrastructures in member states, increase the risk that these targets will not be reached. Given the forecasted increase of distributed generation and the introduction of demand response techniques to control load, new decentralised network architectures must be defined to guarantee the system's efficient use and stability. Each link in the chain of electricity security of supply is crucial, from generation to transmission to distribution to demand.
  • Topic: Security, Development, Energy Policy
  • Political Geography: Europe
  • Author: Christian von Hirschhausen, Clemens Haftendorn, Johannes Herold, Franziska Holz, Anne Neumann, Sophia Rüster
  • Publication Date: 11-2010
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Centre for European Policy Studies
  • Abstract: Europe faces a paradox with respect to coal supply security. On the one hand, coal is a reliable fossil fuel, with ample reserves available from a large number of producers. Globally, coal use has risen at a rate of 4.9% annually in recent years (WCI, 2010). Yet on the other hand, Europe's climate policy objectives will not allow continued use unless this 'dirtiest' of all fossil fuels can be transformed into a 'clean' one, e.g. via new carbon capture, transport and storage (CCTS) technology. CCTS, however, this requires substantial technological advances for application in the medium and long term (MIT, 2007). The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2005) concludes that CCTS can contribute 15-55% of the cumulative emissions reduction effort through 2100, and assumes a major role in a portfolio of the low carbon technologies needed to mitigate climate change. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA, 2008), CCTS is "the most important single new technology for CO2 savings" in both power generation and industry. However, the IEA's 2009 'Blue Map' scenario also states that 100 carbon capture plants, a minimum of 10,000 km of pipelines and storage of 1.2 GtCO2 are required for CCTS to become a serious abatement technology by 2020. We are nowhere close to these and might never get there.
  • Topic: Security, Energy Policy
  • Political Geography: Europe
  • Author: Andrew Macintosh
  • Publication Date: 11-2010
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Centre for European Policy Studies
  • Abstract: Clearly the natural gas market is experiencing considerable change: a second Ukraine-Russia gas crisis, a collapse in the price of natural gas, a new European natural gas security of supply regulation and the mass production of natural gas from unconventional sources in the US as a result of technological advancements, which could yet have an impact on the EU. This Policy Brief is a summation of the European Union's vulnerability to natural gas supply security risks.
  • Topic: Security, Energy Policy
  • Political Geography: Russia, Europe, Ukraine
  • Author: Goran Tirak
  • Publication Date: 11-2010
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Centre for European Policy Studies
  • Abstract: Bosnia and Herzegovina (hereinafter: Bosnia or BiH) has often been described as a failed state, but in reality it is actually not that far behind other Western Balkan countries that have aspirations to join the EU. Due to recent developments, however, there is a danger that this gap will widen.
  • Topic: Civil War, Peace Studies, Treaties and Agreements, Territorial Disputes, Peacekeeping
  • Political Geography: Europe, Balkans
  • Author: Roderick Kefferputz
  • Publication Date: 11-2010
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Centre for European Policy Studies
  • Abstract: Relations between China and the West have been difficult at best in recent months. Frustrations on both sides have increased palpably. Besides long-standing disagreements over Beijing's policy on the renminbi, the stalled climate change negotiations and human rights, new challenges have also (re)emerged. These include, amongst others, rising concerns over China's role in the South China Sea and the conflict over the Japanese-controlled Senkaku or Diaoyu Islands in the East China Sea. Recently, however, one issue in particular has made the headlines: rare earths.
  • Topic: Environment, Industrial Policy, Science and Technology
  • Political Geography: China, Europe
  • Author: Christian Fahrholz, Cezary Wójcik
  • Publication Date: 11-2010
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Centre for European Policy Studies
  • Abstract: Roger Ailes, a former advisor to Ronald Reagan, recalls in his book an intriguing practice of the ancient Romans: when they finished building a bridge or an arch, they enforced accountability by placing the engineer in charge beneath the construction when the scaffolding was removed. If the edifice did not hold, he was the first to know. We do not follow such drastic practices these days in Europe, but with some European economies shaking and the Greek sovereign debt crisis still not over, the architecture of the euro area has been certainly come under severe stress. Unfortunately, the 28-29 October 2010 European Council Summit has not made this architecture much safer.
  • Topic: Economics, Regional Cooperation, Monetary Policy, Financial Crisis
  • Political Geography: Europe