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62. Cuba, Itamaraty, and Brazil: Same Old Song?
- Author:
- William Barr
- Publication Date:
- 05-2003
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- The New York Times was by no means the lone voice in criticizing Brazil's abstentions on the Cuba-related motions before the UN Human Rights Commission. Much tougher criticism has come from a wide range of Brazilians, including a substantial segment of academics, journalists, and even politicians who have long praised Cuba's independence from the U.S. orbit and criticized the United States' economic blockade.
- Topic:
- Security, Economics, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- United States, New York, Brazil, Cuba, United Nations, and Latin America
63. Argentina Alert (Double Issue)
- Author:
- Miguel Diaz and Carlos M. Regúnaga
- Publication Date:
- 05-2003
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- Argentina's national mania to experiment with new rules, procedures, and institutions never ceases to produce surprising, and sometimes stunning results. This time, the electoral process has been managed in such a bizarre way that as a result, the primary election of the Peronist Party will take place after the general election rather than before, as one would expect in a normal, more boring country.
- Topic:
- Security, Economics, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Argentina, South America, and Latin America
64. Argentina Alert: Summary of the Elections
- Author:
- Carlos M. Regúnaga
- Publication Date:
- 05-2003
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- Voter turnout for the April 27 elections was among the highest in record: about 80 percent of the total population eighteen years old and older. The number of empty ballot envelopes was less than 1 percent, and votes annulled were within the normal margins in any election. All of this indicates that the protest vote (“voto bronca”), which was so high in the 2001 congressional elections, was not a factor in this election. The large number of candidates—and the exceptionally high number of candidates with the possibility of reaching the second round presidency on May 18 in particular—may have convinced electors to cast positive votes.
- Topic:
- Security, Economics, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Argentina, South America, and Latin America
65. Cuba Alert: Cuban Dissidents Under Siege
- Author:
- Brian Latell
- Publication Date:
- 04-2003
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- The campaign against internal opposition launched last month by Fidel Castro's regime is among the most inhumane of the numerous crackdowns conducted during the more than 44 years he has ruled Cuba. Beginning in mid March, Cuban security personnel, often acting violently, rounded up more than 100 men and women associated with groups committed to peaceful democratic change on the island.
- Topic:
- Security, Economics, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Cuba, Latin America, and Caribbean
66. Chile Uses Institutional Strength-To Counter Corruption Scandals
- Author:
- Luis Pinto
- Publication Date:
- 04-2003
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- Since Augusto Pinochet stepped down as president in 1989, Chile has been one of the most politically, socially, and economically successful countries in the region. The country has been able to move forward because of its aggressive promotion of exports, strength of its institutions, and the trust it has built with the international community. Recently however, Chile has found itself opposing the United States, a long time champion and supporter; it was also embroiled in several domestic corruption scandals. Chile has turned to the strength of its institutions and its international credibility to get back on track.
- Topic:
- Security, Economics, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- United States, South America, Latin America, and Chile
67. Canada Alert: The 2003 Quebec Provincial Election: A Vote for Change in La Belle Province
- Author:
- Andre Belelieu
- Publication Date:
- 04-2003
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- On April 14, Quebeckers voted for change while keeping with half a century of tradition. With 70 percent of Quebec's 5.5 million registered voters casting their ballots, the Liberal Party (PLQ) under Jean Charest ended nine years of Parti Quebecois (PQ) rule, winning 45.9 percent of the popular vote and 76 out of 125 seats in Quebec's National Assembly. The governing PQ, which won 33.2 percent of the vote and picked up 45 seats in the National Assembly, was therefore swept from power despite a fairly positive record in government, proving that no matter how competently a government rules in Quebec, it is not immune to the political reality that no party has been able to win a third consecutive term in office since the Union Nationale in 1952.
- Topic:
- Security, Economics, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Canada, Latin America, and North America
68. Argentina Alert-Argentine Election: Fateful Choice
- Author:
- Carlos M. Regúnaga
- Publication Date:
- 04-2003
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- Observers unfamiliar with Argentine history may see in the present campaign a lack of real confrontation and choice of ideas. And they may be misled in that direction by the fact that candidates have devoted great time and effort to expose flaws in their opponents' character and background and very little to explain platforms and proposals. One should not be deceived, however, by appearances. The ideological spectrum represented by the five candidates is much wider than has been seen in any U.S. election in recent history. That statement needs, however, some historical perspective.
- Topic:
- Security, Economics, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Argentina, South America, and Latin America
69. Brazil Alert: President Lula
- Author:
- William Perry
- Publication Date:
- 04-2003
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- 100 days have now passed since Luiz Inácio “Lula” da Silva donned Brazil's presidential sash on January 1, 2003. Perhaps use of this traditional U.S. benchmark, even for preliminary judgments, is a bit unfair, as the Brazilian political calendar with Carnival holidays off, precludes Congress from really beginning to function until early March. Nevertheless, the past three months have been instructive in terms of gauging the problems and prospects of the new Workers' Party (PT) government.
- Topic:
- Security, Economics, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Brazil, South America, and Latin America
70. Mexico Alert: Economic Competitiveness in Mexico: Recent Evolution, Prospects, and Repercussions for the United States
- Author:
- Mariano Ruiz-Funes
- Publication Date:
- 04-2003
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- A country's economic competitiveness can be analyzed on two closely interrelated levels: microeconomic com-petitiveness and competitiveness in attracting investment. The first level (microeconomic competitiveness) relates to goods and services offered in the country and refers to competition arising from goods and services that are produced in another country. That competition takes place in international markets (export competitiveness) as well as in the domestic market (with imports).
- Topic:
- Security, Economics, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- United States, Latin America, North America, and Mexico
71. Mexico Alert: The Impact of the War in Iraq on Canada, the Caribbean, and Latin America
- Author:
- Phillip McLean
- Publication Date:
- 04-2003
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- Once again events elsewhere have driven news of Canada, the Caribbean and Latin America off the front pages— even from newspapers in the region. Lack of attention may be the least of those countries' concerns about the war. The more serious consequence is likely to be that the war will accentuate the hemisphere's already evident problems. To the degree that the war slows the growth of world trade, the region's near-term economic prospects will suffer, and global uncertainties will dim the promise of more open and dynamic markets.
- Topic:
- Security, Economics, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Canada, South America, Latin America, Central America, Caribbean, and North America
72. Mexico Alert: The Impact of the War in Iraq on Mexico
- Author:
- Armand Peschard-Sverdrup
- Publication Date:
- 04-2003
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- When looking at the ramifications of the war in Iraq on the Western Hemisphere, it is clear that the conflict will have the greatest impact on the two nations with which the United States shares borders—Mexico and Canada. From a national security standpoint, these nations' immediate proximity to the United States automatically heightens the threat to their own national security, particularly because we seem to have entered an era in which the use of weapons of mass destruction—be they nuclear, chemical, or biological—poses a viable threat. From a U.S. homeland security standpoint, the shared border transforms both of our friendly neighbors into possible platforms from which rogue elements could stage attacks or enter the United States to threaten our homeland.
- Topic:
- Security, Economics, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, Canada, Latin America, North America, and Mexico
73. Argentina Alert: Polls Apart
- Author:
- Carlos M. Regúnaga
- Publication Date:
- 04-2003
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- The race for the Argentine presidency is now in the next to last lap. The first ballot will be cast April 27, but for the first time in history it looks as if a second ballot will be required. If it is, it will take place on May 18. At this juncture, public opinion and pundits' predictions are poles apart. But before analyzing them, it might be useful to remember the electoral system now in effect.
- Topic:
- Security, Economics, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Argentina, South America, and Latin America
74. Mexico Alert: The Vote That Wasn't
- Author:
- Luis Rubio
- Publication Date:
- 03-2003
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- Mexico's President Vicente Fox chose a rather awkward time to take a stand supporting a multilateralist approach in foreign policy. Even though a multilateral approach matches neatly—almost naturally—with the country's history, taking such a visible stand after the events of September 11 entailed huge risks that nobody in Fox's cabinet could ignore, even if, in retrospect, few truly understood what the actual risks were. Yet, oblivious to that fact, the government pushed ahead. Even after President George W. Bush had decided not to pursue a vote in the UN Security Council on a follow-up resolution that would have de facto authorized the use of force in Iraq, the Mexican government found it necessary to state that it would have voted “no.” The critical question is less whether this constitutes an approach to foreign policy that is new for Mexico than whether the administration truly understands the implications of its newfound ways.
- Topic:
- Security, Economics, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Latin America, North America, and Mexico
75. Mexico Alert: NAFTA And Mexico's Agriculture
- Author:
- Sergio Sarmiento
- Publication Date:
- 03-2003
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- For a long time, it seemed impossible for any issue to forge an alliance between the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI)—the party that ruled Mexico from 1929 to 2000—and the leftist Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD). This issue, however, has clearly emerged now with the attempt to force President Vicente Fox, a member of the conservative National Action Party (PAN), to renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) in order to offer special protection to Mexico's agriculture.
- Topic:
- Security, Economics, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Latin America and North America
76. Mexico Alert: Mexico State Election
- Author:
- Armand Peschard-Sverdrup and George W. Grayson
- Publication Date:
- 03-2003
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- On March 9, 2003, the citizens of Mexico state (Edomex) will elect 124 municipal government officials and 75 members of the state legislature. Although local contests, these elections have attracted national attention for several reasons. First, with 13 million inhabitants Edomex is the most populous of Mexico 31 states–with approximately 4.5 million more citizens than Mexico City. Second, Mexico state also boasts more than 8 million voters, the most of any state and 12.55 percent of the nationwide total. Third, Mexico state is a microcosm of the country–with (1) a vibrant manufacturing sector, (2) one-third of its income arising from agriculture, (3) a small indigenous population, (4) a plethora of middle-class residents who work for the government, own small businesses, or practice professions such as medicine, dentistry, accounting, and teaching, and (5) poor people who eke out a living in Chalco, Texcoco, and other sprawling slums contiguous to Mexico City. Fourth, Edomex is an arena of intense political activism, involving the country's three major parties: the once-hegemonic Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI), the center-right National Action Party (PAN), and the nationalist-left Democratic Revolutionary Party (PRD). In addition, the Mexican Green Ecological Party (PVEM) boasts its largest support base in the state, while several new or small parties will also compete in the upcoming election. These include the centrist Convergencia, the leftist Workers' Party (PT), the right-wing Social Alliance (PAS), the conservative Party of the Nationalist Society (PSN), the reform-oriented México Posible (MP), the Mexican Liberal Party (PLM), Citizens' Force (FC), and the Citizens' Parliament (PC). Fifth, the importance of the state means that any major Edomex politician who distinguishes himself will wind up on the short list of contenders for the presidency in 2006. Finally, the outcome of the Mexico state balloting will provide an insight into the relative strength of contending parties as they prepare for the July 6 election of 500 members of the Chamber of Deputies and six governors (Campeche, Colima, Nuevo León, Querétaro, San Luis Potosí, and Sonora).
- Topic:
- Security, Economics, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Latin America, North America, and Mexico
77. When Wen Comes To Washington . . .
- Author:
- Yu Bin
- Publication Date:
- 12-2003
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- In the Chinese language, the character "wen" means moderation and modesty. This happens to capture the personality and policies of China's new premier, Wen Jiabao. In his first trip to the United States as premier, Wen will try to present the image of a rising China that is liberalizing at home, is confident abroad, and willing and able to work with the world's sole superpower. The U.S. side will also have a closeup look at the man who may well administer China for the next 10 years.
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, Israel, and Asia
78. Taiwan Referendum: Waving a Red Flag
- Author:
- Ralph A. Cossa
- Publication Date:
- 12-2003
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- TAIPEI – Is President Chen Shui-bian trying to provoke a crisis with the PRC in the run up to the March 2004 presidential elections in Taiwan? Taiwan government spokesmen say no, but there is a growing perception among cross-Strait watchers that Taipei is purposefully baiting Beijing in hopes of provoking a hostile response (a la the 1996 missile “tests”) that will cause the island's public to rally around the flag (and the ruling Democratic Progressive Party) in the name of Taiwanese nationalism.
- Political Geography:
- China, Israel, and Asia
79. Six-Party Talks Prospects
- Author:
- Ralph A. Cossa
- Publication Date:
- 11-2003
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- President Bush's recent offer to provide Pyongyang with written assurances that the U.S. does not intend to attack North Korea and the North's willingness “to consider” this offer provide the basis, however tentative and contentious, for a negotiated solution to the current nuclear stand-off on the Korean Peninsula. But even if the North really does return to the bargaining table – and this is by no means assured – a long and difficult road lies ahead in the search for common ground between the two primary antagonists in this six-party drama. The key to a successful outcome remains the willingness of the other four actors – China, Japan, Russia, and especially South Korea – to stand firmly behind Washington's central demand: that Pyongyang “fully, verifiably, and irreversibly” abandon its nuclear weapons programs.
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Japan, China, Israel, and Asia
80. A Bittersweet Win For Mr. Koizumi
- Author:
- Brad Glosserman
- Publication Date:
- 11-2003
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- Tokyo – In the end, the weather just wasn't bad enough. Japan's Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), which has dominated politics since 1955, claimed victory in Sunday's national election as it and its coalition partners took a comfortable majority in the Diet. Prime Minister Koizumi Junichiro's celebrations have been muted, however: The LDP's failure to win an outright majority in the lower house will embolden obstructionists within his own party who oppose his reform agenda.
- Political Geography:
- China, Israel, and Asia