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Begin New Search Political Geography United States Content Type Policy Brief Publishing Institution Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

41. Putin's Decline and America's Response

Author:
Anders Åslund
Publication Date:
08-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Russia's regime has gone through a major aggravation during the first year of President Vladimir Putin's second term. The regime suffers from serious overcentralization of power, which has led to a paralysis of policy making. Putin's power base has been shrunk to secret policemen from St. Petersburg. Although his popularity remains high, it is falling. Neither unbiased information nor negative feedback is accepted. As a result, the Putin regime is much more fragile than generally understood. Russia's current abandonment of democracy is an anomaly for such a developed and relatively wealthy country, and it has made Russia's interests part from those of the United States. The United States should not hesitate to promote democracy in Russia, while pragmatically pursuing common interests in nonproliferation and energy.
Topic:
International Relations, Democratization, and Government
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, America, Europe, and Asia

42. The Key to Arab Reform: Moderate Islamists

Author:
Amr Hamzawy
Publication Date:
07-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Before any significant political reform can take place in the Arab world, the United States and Europe need to begin engaging moderate Islamists, an action less thorny than it might seem because Islamists have embraced democratic procedures and have shown a strong commitment to the rule of law. For a long time Arab regimes have frightened the United States and Europe into supporting regimes' repressive measures toward Islamist movements by invoking the nightmare of anti-Western fanatics taking power through the ballot box. However, today's moderate Islamists—while illiberal in many important respects—no longer match the nightmare. Excluding them from the political sphere weakens the chances of democratic reform and increases the likelihood that eventually they will resort to violence.
Topic:
International Relations, Politics, and Religion
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, and Arabia

43. China's Currency: Not the Problem

Author:
Albert Keidel
Publication Date:
06-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
In Washington, politicians and pundits have settled on a single magical solution for the country's economic ills: getting China to revalue its currency, the RMB. By any reasonable economic measure, however, the RMB is not undervalued. China does have a trade surplus with the United States, but it has a trade deficit with the rest of the world. And China's accumulation of dollar reserves is not the result of trade surpluses, but of large investment inflows caused in part by speculators' betting that China will yield to U.S. pressure. Focusing on China's currency is a distraction. If the United States wants to improve its economy for the long haul, it had best look elsewhere beginning with raising the productivity of American workers.
Topic:
Economics and Government
Political Geography:
United States, China, America, Washington, and Asia

44. South Asian Seesaw: A New U.S. Policy on the Subcontinent

Author:
Ashley J. Tellis
Publication Date:
03-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The widely noted decision to resume F-16 sales to Pakistan and, even more, the largely ignored commitment to assist India's growth in power represent a new U.S. strategy toward South Asia. By expanding relations with both states in a differentiated way matched to their geostrategic weights, the Bush administration seeks to assist Pakistan in becoming a successful state while it enables India to secure a troublefree ascent to great-power status. These objectives will be pursued through a large economic and military assistance package to Islamabad and through three separate dialogues with New Delhi that will review various challenging issues such as civil nuclear cooperation, space, defense coproduction, regional and global security, and bilateral trade. This innovative approach to India and Pakistan is welcome—and long overdue in a strategic sense—but it is not without risks to the United States, its various regional relationships, and different international regimes.
Topic:
Foreign Policy and Peace Studies
Political Geography:
Pakistan, United States, South Asia, India, and Islamabad

45. Judicial Reform in China: Lessons from Shanghai

Author:
Veron Mei-Ying Hung
Publication Date:
04-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The George W. Bush administration in September 2002 laid out in the “National Security Strategy of the United States” its strategy toward China: “We welcome the emergence of a strong, peaceful, and prosperous China.” During a trip to Asia in March 2005, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice adopted a similar phrase to welcome “the rise of a confident, peaceful, and prosperous China.”
Topic:
International Relations and Politics
Political Geography:
United States, China, Shanghai, and Asia

46. The Chosen Nation: The Influence of Religion on U.S. Foreign Policy

Author:
John B. Judis
Publication Date:
03-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
In putting forth his foreign policy, President George W. Bush speaks of the United States having a “calling” or “mission” that has come from the “Maker of Heaven.” Yet, while he uses explicitly religious language more than his immediate predecessors, there is nothing exceptional about a U.S. president resorting to religious themes to explain his foreign policy. U.S. goals in the world are based on Protestant millennial themes that go back to seventeenth-century England. What has distinguished Bush from some of his predecessors is that these religious concepts have not only shaped his ultimate objectives but also colored the way in which he viewed reality—sometimes to the detriment of U.S. foreign policy.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Democratization, and Peace Studies
Political Geography:
United States and England

47. Iraq: Without Consensus, Democracy Is Not the Answer

Author:
Marina Ottaway
Publication Date:
03-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The elections were a success, but they do not ensure that Iraqis can now agree on a constitutional formula that accommodates the demands of all groups and keeps the country together. Democracy as separation of powers, checks and balances, and protection of individual rights has not proven enough to avoid conflict in other deeply divided societies. Iraqis will have to confront their differences and negotiate a solution. If they fail, the United States will be faced with a choice of whether to keep the country together by force or get out—and it is better to find out sooner rather than later.
Topic:
Democratization, Government, and Peace Studies
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, and Middle East

48. Evaluating Middle East Reform: How Do We Know When It Is Significant?

Author:
Marina S. Ottaway
Publication Date:
02-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
This short paper launches the second set of studies in the Carnegie Papers Middle East Series. The first set, now also published as a book under the title Uncharted Journey: Promoting Democracy in the Middle East, examined the most important issues concerning democracy promotion and democratic change in the Middle East. One of the conclusions that emerged from those studies is that the Middle East still offers a rather discouraging political picture. There are some liberalized autocracies but no democratic countries in the region. The link between economic and political reform remains weak. Democratic reformers have failed to build strong constituencies, and the organizations with strong constituencies are Islamist rather than democratic. The integration of Islamists in the reform process remains poor. And the United States, now championing democracy in the region, has little credibility in Arab eyes, and still has not consistently integrated democracy promotion in its policy toward the area. Yet, despite all these problems, it is becoming increasingly clear that there is a ferment of reform in the Middle East. But how significant is it?
Topic:
International Relations, Democratization, and Politics
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, and Arabia

49. Iran Is Not an Island: A Strategy to Mobilize the Neighbors

Author:
George Perkovich
Publication Date:
02-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
With luck, Iran's acquisition of nuclear weapons could be delayed through a combination of Iranian technical difficulties, U.S. military action, and European diplomacy. However, neither delay nor regime change would remove the causes of proliferation pressures in Iran. Iran needs to be assured that the U.S. will respect its autonomy if it ceases nuclear weapons development, while Iran's neighbors need to be reassured that Tehran will respect their interests. Arab governments are reluctant to join in a regional security dialogue in part because of Washington's double standard regarding Israel's nuclear arsenal and treatment of Palestinians. To mobilize all of the international actors opposing Iranian nuclear development, the U.S. must recognize that Iranian proliferation, Persian Gulf security, the U.S. role in the Middle East, Israel's nuclear status, and Palestinian-Israeli relations are all linked and cannot be resolved without a more balanced U.S. stance.
Topic:
Diplomacy and Peace Studies
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, Iran, Middle East, Israel, Tehran, Palestine, and Persia

50. Libya: Security Is Not Enough

Author:
Michele Dunne
Publication Date:
10-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
President George W. Bush has suggested that other nations— Iran, North Korea, Syria—follow the example of Libya, which increased its own security by ending links with terrorist groups and surrendering weapons of mass destruction and delivery systems. Some commentators are taking a second lesson from the Libya case: The United States will forgo its declared interest in democratization and reform if a country takes positive security-related steps and has enough petroleum to offer. The United States needs to correct this impression. It has the opportunity to do so through pursuing incremental political reform and human rights improvements in Libya even while relieving sanctions and developing relations. From pressing for repeal of limits on free expression to the prosecution of cases of torture, there are many ways Washington can use its leverage to urge long-term political change that will not come about through economic liberalization alone.
Topic:
Foreign Policy
Political Geography:
Africa, United States, Middle East, and Libya