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Begin New Search Political Geography United States Content Type Policy Brief Publishing Institution Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

21. Thinking Strategically About Russia

Author:
Dmitri V. Trenin
Publication Date:
12-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
U.S.–Russian relations matter again. To succeed where Bush has failed, Obama needs to approach Russia strategically: enhancing cooperation where possible, mitigating conflict where necessary. To prevent new conflict and receive Moscow's cooperation, Washington needs to deal seriously with Russian concerns. Leave Russia's domestic politics to the Russians. To keep Ukraine whole and free, the EU integration way is the way. NATO has reached the safe limits of eastward expansion. To protect against missile threats, a pan-European TMD system—which includes Russia—is the best option. On Iran and Afghanistan, Russia should be treated as an equal partner
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Russia, United States, Europe, Iran, Washington, Ukraine, and Moscow

22. Syrian–Israeli Peace: A Possible Key to Regional Change

Author:
Paul Salem
Publication Date:
12-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Peace between Syria and Israel is a real possibility—it was almost achieved twice before in 1995–1996 and 1999–2000. Both sides have indicated their interest through indirect talks hosted by Turkey. Syrian–Israeli peace would have positive effects on U.S. interests in the Middle East, including Lebanon, Iraq, and other tracks of the Arab–Israeli peace process. The downsides of U.S. mediation are limited. The two sides cannot and will not reach a peace treaty without U.S. leadership. The Obama administration should develop an integrated policy including pressure, incentives, and robust diplomacy to make this possibility a reality. The pressure would be to keep Syria out of Lebanon and Iraq. This would mean continued support for UN Security Council resolutions on Lebanon and the International Hariri Tribunal, as well as continued U.S. sanctions as long as Syria violates its neighbors' sovereignty. The incentives should include the return of the Golan Heights, ending Syria's political isolation, U.S. help in securing World Trade Organization accession, and encouraging foreign direct investment.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution and Peace Studies
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Turkey, Middle East, Israel, Arab Countries, Lebanon, and Syria

23. Stabilizing Afghanistan: Threats and Challenges

Author:
William Maley
Publication Date:
10-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Afghanistan cannot be stabilized by quick fixes. The United States, NATO, and their allies need to make a sustained commitment for the long term. Instead of a simple “surge,” there needs to be a much clearer focus on bringing security to Afghans' daily lives. Only once this is achieved will Afghanistan's government have real reservoirs of legitimacy. Afghanistan has not been served well by its 2004 Constitution, which created a dysfunctional system of government that relies too much on the president alone. The United States should support systemic reforms, first through the development of an effective executive office to support the Afghan president. Counternarcotics policies in Afghanistan must take account of domestic socioeconomic complexities, and be based on long-term development projects that increase the returns from cultivating different crops. Serious thought needs to be given to encouraging more Muslim states to contribute personnel to support the promotion of human security and development in Afghanistan. Pakistan needs to be pressured discreetly but very strongly to arrest the Afghan Taliban leadership in Pakistan.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Development, and War
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Afghanistan, United States, and Central Asia

24. Nuclear Renaissance: Is It Coming? Should It?

Author:
Sharon Squassoni
Publication Date:
10-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Expectations for nuclear energy have grown dramatically. More than thirty nations now have plans to build nuclear power plants for the first time. A nuclear renaissance, however, is not a foregone conclusion. A major expansion would require significant policy and financial support from governments. Key questions need solid answers beforehand: Can nuclear power help reduce dependence on foreign oil or contribute significantly to needed reductions in carbon emissions? Is nuclear power economically competitive? Can safety be assured and is an acceptable solution for nuclear waste at hand? Can nuclear power be expanded in such a way as to adequately control the added risks of proliferation? To minimize some of the risks of nuclear expansion—whether related to economics, safety, security, or proliferation—the United States should consider several actions: help strengthen the rules of nuclear commerce and transparency, deemphasize the element of national prestige with respect to nuclear energy, help other countries undertake clear-eyed assessments of all available options for generating electricity, and limit the acquisition of sensitive nuclear technologies like uranium enrichment and spent-fuel reprocessing.
Topic:
Energy Policy, Environment, and Government
Political Geography:
United States

25. Russian–American Security Relations After Georgia

Author:
Rose Gottemoeller
Publication Date:
10-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Washington and Moscow's failure to develop a working relationship could lead to a dangerous crisis—perhaps even a nuclear one. There is an immediate need to grab onto the superstructure of the relationship through the STA RT and CFE treaties, both of which require urgent action. A new architecture should follow that to broaden the relationship, including the creation of a new future for security in Europe. Both capitals need to devise a strategy as well as a mechanism to manage the relationship and prevent future crises. A commission of past presidents—U.S. and Russian—would have the authority to confront these monumental tasks.
Topic:
International Relations and Security
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, America, Europe, Washington, Eastern Europe, Moscow, and Georgia

26. Abolishing Nuclear Weapons: Why the United States Should Lead

Author:
George Perkovich
Publication Date:
10-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The next American president should emphasize the goal of a world without nuclear weapons and really mean it. The verification and enforcement mechanisms that would be required to achieve this would augment U.S. and global security at a time when the nuclear industry will likely expand globally. Without a clearer commitment to the elimination of all nuclear arsenals, non–nuclear-weapon states will not support strengthened nonproliferation rules, inspections, and controls over fissile materials. The accounting and control over nuclear materials that would be necessary to enable nuclear disarmament would greatly reduce risks that terrorists could acquire these materials. If nuclear deterrence would work everywhere and always, we would not worry about proliferation. If nuclear deterrence is not fail-safe, the long-term answer must be to reduce the number and salience of nuclear weapons to zero.
Topic:
Government, Nuclear Weapons, Peace Studies, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
United States and America

27. Iran: Is Productive Engagement Possible?

Author:
Karim Sadjadpour
Publication Date:
10-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Although Tehran and Washington appear hopelessly divided, issues of broad mutual concern reveal important overlapping interests. The United States can more effectively support democracy and human rights in Iran with policies that facilitate, rather than impede, Iran's modernization and reintegration in the global economy. The next U.S. president should not immediately seek comprehensive engagement with Tehran, as this might enhance Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's chances of reelection in Iran's June 2009 presidential elections. The United States must deal with those who hold power in Tehran, namely Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Given the widespread mutual mistrust between Washington and Tehran, confidence should be built with negotiations on areas of common interest, such as Iraq and Afghanistan, rather than those of little or no common interest, such as the Palestinian–Israeli conflict or the nuclear issue. When it comes to U.S.–Iranian interaction, the record shows that “secret” or “private” discussions out of public earshot have a greater success rate. Building confidence in the public realm will be difficult, as politicians on both sides will likely feel the need to use harsh rhetoric to maintain appearances. It is imperative that Washington maintain a multilateral approach toward Iran, especially regarding the nuclear issue. Tehran is highly adept at exploiting rifts in the international community and diplomatic efforts to check Iran's nuclear ambitions will unravel if key countries approach Iran with divergent redlines. Powerful spoilers—both within Iran and among Iran's Arab allies—have entrenched economic and political interests in preventing U.S.–Iranian reconciliation.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United States, Iran, Washington, Middle East, Israel, Tehran, and Palestine

28. China's Economic Rise -- Fact and Fiction

Author:
Albert Keidel
Publication Date:
07-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
China's economy will surpass that of the United States by 2035 and be twice its size by midcentury, a new report by Albert Keidel concludes. China's rapid growth is driven by domestic demand—not exports—and will sustain high single-digit growth rates well into this century. In China's Economic Rise—Fact and Fiction, Keidel examines China's likely economic trajectory and its implications for global commercial, institutional, and military leadership.
Topic:
Economics, Globalization, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States, China, and Asia

29. Iran Says “No”—Now What?

Author:
George Perkovich
Publication Date:
09-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Neither Iran nor the United States can achieve all it wants in the current nuclear standoff. Iran has demonstrated its unwillingness to comply with IAEA and UN Security Council demands to cease its enrichment activities or to negotiate seriously toward that end. The United States and other interlocutors should offer Iran a last chance to negotiate a suspension of its enrichment program until the IAEA can resolve outstanding issues in return for substantial incentives. If that package were rejected, the P-5 plus Germany should withdraw the incentives and commit to maintaining sanctions as long as Iran does not comply with IAEA demands. Simultaneously, the U.S. should take force “off the table” as long as Iran is not newly found to be seeking nuclear weapons or committing aggression.
Topic:
International Cooperation, International Organization, and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:
United States, Iran, and Middle East

30. Pakistan—Conflicted Ally in the War on Terror

Author:
Ashley Tellis
Publication Date:
12-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Many Americans have blamed the resurgence of al-Qaeda and the Taliban on Pakistan's lackluster performance in the war on terror. Islamabad has indeed been ambivalent, but the convulsive political deterioration in the North West Frontier Province in Pakistan, Islamabad's military ineptitude in counterterrorism operations, and the political failures of the Karzai government in Afghanistan have all exacerbated the problem. Making U.S. aid conditional on Pakistan's performance in the war or undertaking unilateral strikes against terrorist targets in Pakistan would inflate suspicion of Washington's motives, and risk casting Pakistan, a nuclear-armed state, as an American adversary. U.S. policy must instead convince Pakistani elites that defeating terrorist groups serves their own interest, while emphasizing that a terrorist attack emanating from Pakistan would push Washington to adopt more painful tactics.
Topic:
Security, Nuclear Weapons, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Afghanistan, United States, America, Washington, Asia, and Taliban