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You searched for: Content Type Policy Brief Remove constraint Content Type: Policy Brief Publishing Institution Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Remove constraint Publishing Institution: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Political Geography United States Remove constraint Political Geography: United States Topic Globalization Remove constraint Topic: Globalization
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  • Author: Uri Dadush, Vera Eidelman
  • Publication Date: 11-2010
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
  • Abstract: The Great Recession included five major surprises: (1) the severity of the global trade and output collapse, (2) the United States suffered a milder than expected recession, (3) Europe saw the onset of a severe sovereign debt crisis, (4) China grew at an extraordinary rate even though it's greatly dependent on exports, and (5) Latin America showed remarkable resilience.
  • Topic: Economics, Globalization, Global Recession, Financial Crisis
  • Political Geography: United States, China, Europe, Latin America
  • Author: Michael Pettis
  • Publication Date: 05-2009
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
  • Abstract: Participants in the recently completed G20 meeting in London agreed on a number of measures, some substantial and some merely symbolic, but they sidestepped the real issues dividing the major economic powers and, in so doing, failed to address the root causes of the global trade and investment imbalances. This was almost inevitable. China, Europe, and the United States have incompatible conceptual frameworks for understanding the causes of the global financial crisis; furthermore, their conflicting domestic political constraints make agreement on solutions hard to reach. Europeans believe that the root cause of the crisis was excessively deregulated financial systems, and they are skeptical about U.S. and Chinese calls for fiscal expansion, worrying that excessive spending would prolong the imbalances and make the ultimate adjustment more difficult. China also believes that the roots of the crisis lie within the structure of the global financial system, although Beijing insists that it was mainly the reserve status of the U.S. dollar that permitted imbalances to develop to unsustainable levels. China is particularly vulnerable to trade protection and seeks to maintain open markets for its continued export of domestic overcapacity. Like the United States, it is pushing for more aggressive, globally coordinated fiscal expansion. However, because of rigidities in its financial system and development model, its fiscal response to the crisis may exacerbate the difficult global adjustment and may, ironically, increase the chances of trade friction. In a time of contracting demand, the United States controls two-thirds of the most valuable resource in the world: net demand. Consequently, it is U.S. policies that will determine the pace and direction of the global recovery, along with the institutional framework that will govern trade and investment relationships for decades to come. The crisis puts the United States more firmly at the center of the emerging world order than ever. So far, the United States has not understood the need to consider the global outcomes of its recovery policies. Until the major powers can reach consensus about the roots of the imbalance and cooperate on policies to promote recovery, it is likely that the world economy will get worse before it gets better. The United States will drive the recovery process, but in order to do so effectively it will need to recognize its position of strength and negotiate the appropriate agreements with other major powers, especially China, on the pace and nature of the adjustment.
  • Topic: Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Monetary Policy
  • Political Geography: United States, China, Europe, London
  • Author: Albert Keidel
  • Publication Date: 07-2008
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
  • Abstract: China's economy will surpass that of the United States by 2035 and be twice its size by midcentury, a new report by Albert Keidel concludes. China's rapid growth is driven by domestic demand—not exports—and will sustain high single-digit growth rates well into this century. In China's Economic Rise—Fact and Fiction, Keidel examines China's likely economic trajectory and its implications for global commercial, institutional, and military leadership.
  • Topic: Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance
  • Political Geography: United States, China, Asia
  • Author: Albert Keidel
  • Publication Date: 09-2007
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
  • Abstract: Surging food prices in China indicate a serious risk of inflationary overheating. Past steps to control inflation caused social protest and deadly unrest. China faces the same risk now. China could avoid severe inflation by learning from its past failures and quickly raising interest rates—but politics make this unlikely. “Cooling off” policies in the future will thus be harsher than necessary. Beyond short-term fixes, China should increase imports of fine grains, with long-term U.S. supply assurances, both to stabilize prices and to promote lucrative farm diversification. U.S. intelligence analysis of this overheating risk should refute the conventional wisdom that China's growth is export-led—it is clearly domestically driven. Policy makers need to realize that China's rapid economic rise is homegrown and sustainable. The United States should quietly remind China that harsh handling of inflation-related unrest could seriously damage U.S.-China relations—especially in a U.S. election year.
  • Topic: Economics, Globalization
  • Political Geography: United States, China, Asia
  • Author: Sandra Polaski
  • Publication Date: 07-2007
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
  • Abstract: U.S. wages have stagnated for the past three decades, while the workforce has also faced an erosion of job security, health care, and pension plans. This increasing economic insecurity has coincided with rapid globalization. Is there a causal relationship between the two?
  • Topic: International Relations, Economics, Globalization
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Author: Sandra Polaski
  • Publication Date: 05-2004
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
  • Abstract: These are not normal times. Two changes in the past decade have produced a huge global oversupply of labor and intense competition for an expanding array of jobs. First, the Cold War's end threw millions of workers, who formerly produced only for the socialist bloc, onto the global labor market. And second, that market has become integrated by technological change that now permits outsourcing of service as well as manufacturing jobs. The current economic recovery will not solve the resulting global mismatch of supply and demand, and it cannot be addressed by the United States alone. Many current policies aggravate the problem. This paper proposes that the United States revise its policies and devote a concerted effort to get the major countries to work together to expand employment at that global level.
  • Topic: Economics, Globalization, Industrial Policy
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Author: Daniel Bodansky
  • Publication Date: 04-2002
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
  • Abstract: With the U.S. withdrawal from the Kyoto Protocol and the agreement's likely entry into force, it appears that the United States and the rest of the world will go their separate ways on climate change. The United States now faces a stark choice: Do nothing, join Kyoto, or come up with a policy of its own. The first option would be unwise, environmentally and politically. The second would require an embarrassing flip- flop by the Bush administration. This leaves the third option: proposing a credible U.S. approach separate from Kyoto.
  • Topic: Energy Policy, Environment, Globalization, Industrial Policy, Science and Technology
  • Political Geography: United States