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252. China as Consumer
- Author:
- Kenneth Lieberthal
- Publication Date:
- 12-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- This article seeks to examine two key issues that will be major drivers of consumption in China over the coming five years: urbanization and environmental amelioration. Whether the issues identified will be the largest factors over this time frame remains unclear, but each of these two areas warrants considerable attention as a very significant contributor to the future of consumer demand in China.
- Topic:
- Economics, Environment, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
253. China as Employer and Consumer: Economic Outlook for the 11th Five-Year Plan (2006-2010)
- Author:
- Arthur R. Kroeber
- Publication Date:
- 12-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- China's impressive economic growth of the past quarter century (9.4 percent average annual real GDP growth between 1980 and 2004, by official figures) is not miraculous; on the contrary, it can largely be explained by conventional models of economic development.
- Topic:
- Economics, Human Welfare, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
254. Hu Jintao's Outbox
- Author:
- Joseph Fewsmith
- Publication Date:
- 12-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- China has now sustained two and a half decades of high-speed growth. This growth has been even faster with regard to exports and China's role in international trade. Domestically, a capitalist tendency seems to be everywhere, while internationally the rise of China, whether peaceful or not, seems – at least to some – to threaten Western jobs, prosperity, and the international order. The focus of this paper, however, is not this question of whether or how China poses a threat to the West but rather an old (but new) question of how this “capitalist” conversion is compatible with the continued rule of a communist party. This is a question of considerable practical import, as people contemplate what the continued growth of the Chinese economy might mean for the political stability of that country, but it is also a question of considerable theoretical import: Leninist parties that sought to “include” external interests, it was argued, are on the way to collapse. It is only a matter of time. The time frame for China has lasted longer than theoreticians had supposed, though they might yet prove to be right – perhaps the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has lasted longer than people imagined but it might still be on the road to collapse. This point of view would find supporters, both in the West and in China, but even if they prove right, it is important to inquire more deeply about what is going on in China, whether institutions are being created, and if so whether they might provide a foundation for a post-communist China or whether they suggest a more chaotic future.
- Topic:
- Economics and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
255. The Future of NATO-Russia Relations: Or, How to Dance With a Bear and Not Get Mauled
- Author:
- Lt. Colonel Gordon B. Hendrickson
- Publication Date:
- 12-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- Following the dissolution of the Soviet Union and the Warsaw Pact, NATO has enlarged its membership twice with countries formerly under Soviet influence and control, and the Alliance is now preparing to begin the process for a third expansion effort. During this time, Russia has watched the borders of NATO creep ever closer to its own, but has generally been powerless to prevent it. Although NATO has taken pains to include and consult with Russia regarding its actions and future plans, the Kremlin cannot reasonably be expected to continue to watch NATO's expansion eastward without eventually pushing back hard. Without question, many significant issues and challenges must still be solved before enlarging the Alliance once again. In light of this, NATO must work rigorously to continue to keep Russia engaged in a productive and mutually beneficial relationship as both sides work through the future obstacles that inevitably will arise in the NATO -Russia relationship.
- Topic:
- International Relations and NATO
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Asia, and Soviet Union
256. The Inevitable Peaking of World Oil Production
- Author:
- Robert L. Hirsch
- Publication Date:
- 10-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- The era of plentiful, low-cost petroleum is approaching an end. The good news is that commercially viable mitigation options are ready for implementation. The bad news is that unless mitigation is orchestrated on a timely basis, the economic damage to the world economy will be dire and long-lasting.
- Topic:
- Economics, Energy Policy, Environment, and Government
257. Security Cooperation and Non-State Threats: A Call for an Integrated Strategy
- Author:
- Albert Zaccor
- Publication Date:
- 08-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- There is widespread recognition that the struggle against international terrorism relies heavily on the cooperation of our partners and allies. The National Security Strategy (NSS) of the United States declares that the U.S. will hold partners responsible for doing their part in the struggle -- including efforts to stem the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and trafficking of illicit drugs -- but admits that weaker nations may not be able to fulfill that responsibility. That strategy and other subordinate strategies call for U.S. assistance to those states that lack the capacity to counter effectively those threats. This places foreign assistance and building partner and allied security capabilities at the center of the struggle against terrorism and related transnational threats.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, Development, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- United States
258. Germany and the Future of the Transatlantic Economy
- Author:
- Jan Neutze and Philipa Tucker
- Publication Date:
- 08-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- A senior delegation from the Atlantic Council of the United States, led by W. Bowman Cutter and Paula Stern, visited key government, parliamentary, and private sector stakeholders in Frankfurt, Berlin, and Brussels in spring 2005. The delegation presented the findings of the Atlantic Council report, "The Transatlantic Economy in 2020: A Partnership for the Future?" to numerous business, government, and think tank audiences. This report summarizes the delegation's discussions.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States, Europe, Germany, and Berlin
259. Topics in Terrorism: Toward a Transatlantic Consensus on the Nature of the Threat
- Author:
- Jason S. Purcell (ed) and Joshua D. Weintraub (ed)
- Publication Date:
- 07-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- The Brussels Conference on “Topics in Terrorism: Toward a Transatlantic Consensus on the Nature of the Threat” was the first of three conferences whose principal purpose was to explore specific themes associated with the world-wide effort to cope with and counter the threat of terrorists. Held in three different European capitals (Brussels, Vienna, and Budapest), the conferences drew on divergent presenters and audiences. Each conference convened subject-matter experts from the United States and Europe with the express intent of considering various perspectives on some of the most difficult challenges facing the transatlantic community. While reaching a consensus on each of the major topics would certainly have been a desirable outcome, where a consensus proved elusive, a major objective was to gain a better understanding of the divergent views and the rationale that underpins those views.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Development, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- United States, Europe, and Vienna
260. Global Futures and Implications for U.S. Basing
- Author:
- Franklin D. Kramer and C. Richard Nelson
- Publication Date:
- 06-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- This report provides the working group's insights about the future of overseas bases derived from U.S. experience over the last 60 years. It highlights key assumptions about the future security environment, proposes recommendations and identifies issues that need further study.
- Topic:
- International Relations and Security
- Political Geography:
- United States