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Begin New Search Topic Terrorism Content Type Policy Brief Publishing Institution Atlantic Council

1. Defeating the Jihadists in Syria: Competition before Confrontation

Author:
Faysal Itani
Publication Date:
04-2015
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
Since August 2014, the US-led air campaign against the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) has successfully inflicted casualties on ISIS and weakened its oil revenues. However, the same efforts have also accelerated the rise of the Nusra Front, an al-Qaeda affiliate, and the near-collapse of nationalist rebel forces. In "Defeating the Jihadists in Syria: Competition before Confrontation," Faysal Itani of the Atlantic Council's Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East details the unintended consequences of the coalition air campaign and proposes a revised US strategy. He argues that the United States can effectively assist nationalist insurgents to defeat ISIS and the Nusra Front by enabling them to compete with and contain these groups before ultimately confronting them. Itani writes that the US-led campaign thus far and the train-and-equip initiative set to begin next month undermine and weaken nationalist rebel forces. He criticizes these efforts for failing to provide sufficient support to the rebel forces, while directing them to target ISIS instead of the regime. Meanwhile, the Nusra Front and other jihadist organizations have greater resources and have been effective in targeting the Assad regime. As such, nationalist rebel forces and local populations have increasingly aligned with the Nusra Front and even tolerate ISIS in order to protect themselves against regime violence, criminality, and chaos. Itani's proposed US strategy offers a practical and workable response to the rise of jihadists groups in Syria; this revised strategy seeks to support rebel forces to compete with the Nusra Front for popular support and to take control of the insurgency, contain ISIS, and build capacity for an eventual offensive against the jihadists. This approach will build on positive results in southern Syria by significantly increasing direct financial and material support and training for vetted nationalist groups that have already shown significant success. Simultaneously, in the north the campaign can provide sufficient material support to nationalist forces while expanding coalition air strikes to target ISIS's frontlines, allowing the nationalist insurgency to defend and govern territory. Only once nationalist insurgent forces have successfully competed with the Nusra Front and contained ISIS can they confront and ultimately defeat the jihadist groups in Syria.
Topic:
Politics, Terrorism, and International Security
Political Geography:
Iraq and Syria

2. ISIS War Game III: The Final Phase

Author:
Bilal Y. Saab
Publication Date:
12-2015
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
September 2015 marked the one-year anniversary of President Barack Obama's speech outlining the administration's strategy to "degrade and ultimately destroy" the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS). Yet, ISIS celebrated in June its own first-year anniversary of setting up a state by conducting three nearly simultaneous terrorist operations in three different countries—France, Tunisia, and Kuwait. Just this past month, ISIS also shocked the world with its attacks in Paris and Beirut and its downing of a Russian airliner in Egypt, killing more than 400 people combined and injuring hundreds more. While nobody expected the destruction of a resilient and agile foe such as ISIS within a couple of years, it is deeply troubling that the coalition is having such a hard time even disrupting its activities.
Topic:
Islam, Terrorism, War, Counterinsurgency, Fragile/Failed State, and ISIS
Political Geography:
Middle East

3. A Blueprint for a Comprehensive US Counterterrorism Strategy in Yemen

Author:
Danya Greenfield and Barbara K. Bodine
Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
With the rise of the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) and the explosion of violent conflicts from Tripoli to Gaza, the Middle East is looking more unstable and unpredictable than ever. While the focus in Washington is centered on jihadist extremists in Iraq and Syria at present, the threat from al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) against the United States continues. Top al-Qaeda leadership in Yemen is hailing the territorial gains of ISIS in Iraq, and some al-Qaeda operatives are imitating ISIS' techniques such as public slaughters of those deemed infidels, prompting fears of cooperation between two of the most active Islamist militant networks. Recent aggression by the Houthi movement, a Zaydi Shia rebel militia, against state institutions and tribal opponents has opened a new front of instability and security vacuum that AQAP is all too ready to exploit. Inattention to the interconnected nature of tribal conflict, terrorist activity, poor governance, economic grievances and citizen discontent is proving to be a dangerous combination for both Yemen and the United States. The Yemeni context may seem far from the current focus on Baghdad and Damascus, but getting the US strategy right in Yemen will have consequences for regional stability and core US interests throughout the Arabian Peninsula and beyond.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Economics, Terrorism, Foreign Aid, Labor Issues, and Reform
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Arabia, and Syria

4. Losing Syria and Iraq to Jihadists

Author:
Faysal Itani
Publication Date:
06-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
Jihadists are steadily capturing territory and resources and establishing a state in Syria and Iraq. The most capable jihadist group, the Islamic State of Iraq and Sham (ISIS), now controls swathes of territory, energy resources, and sophisticated military hardware in both countries. Although the extremists are currently occupied with fighting other nonregime armed groups and the Syrian and Iraqi regimes, these efforts are a means to an end: building a state from which to confront and target the United States, its allies, and its interests in the region. These jihadist groups also bring boundless suffering to the populations they control, and serve as a magnet for and inspiration to jihadists worldwide.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Terrorism, Armed Struggle, Sectarianism, and Sectarian violence
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Middle East, and Syria

5. Inside Libya's Wild West

Author:
Valerie Stocker
Publication Date:
07-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
The fall of Muammar Qaddafi's regime in 2011 after four decades of authoritarian rule gave rise to numerous armed groups competing for territory and influence. More than three years since the uprising began, persistent instability threatens not only Libya's fragile democratic transition but also security in North Africa and the Sahel zone. Tripoli is at the center of a power struggle among competing political factions. Benghazi is the scene of ever more brutal political violence, which now risks drawing the country into a civil war. Then there is the southwestern province of Fezzan, Libya's "Wild West," where human trafficking and smuggling thrive and transnational jihadists hide.
Topic:
Security, Terrorism, Governance, and Sectarianism
Political Geography:
Libya and North Africa

6. Beyond Spillover: Syria's Role in Lebanon's Drift Toward Political Violence

Author:
Faysal Itani and Sarah Grebowkski
Publication Date:
07-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
To describe the increase in violence and instability in Lebanon since the civil war in Syria began as simply a spillover is misleading. it risks casting Lebanon as a victim to negative externalities divorced from its own political dysfunction. in truth, Lebanon's troubles long preceded the war in Syria, and the conflict's more complex and pernicious effect on Lebanon has been the exposure and deepening of pre-existing rifts among Lebanese.
Topic:
Political Violence, Human Rights, Terrorism, Armed Struggle, and Refugee Issues
Political Geography:
Middle East, Lebanon, and Syria

7. Iran: How a Third Tier Cyber Power Can Still Threaten the United States

Author:
Barbara Slavin and Jason Healey
Publication Date:
07-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
When most people think of the "military option" against Iran, they imagine a US attack that takes out Iran's most important known nuclear facilities at Natanz, Fordow, Arak, and Isfahan. They expect Iran to retaliate by closing the Strait of Hormuz, sending missiles into Israel, and/or supporting terrorist attacks on US personnel in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Topic:
Security, Science and Technology, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
United States, Iran, Middle East, and North America

8. Morocco's Vital Role in Northwest Africa's Security and Development

Author:
J. Peter Pham
Publication Date:
11-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
The links between the United States and Morocco are among the oldest of the US' diplomatic bonds. In 1777, Morocco's Sultan Mohammed III was the first foreign sovereign to recognize the independence of the thirteen former British colonies. Subsequently, the 1786 Treaty of Peace and Friendship—negotiated by Thomas Barclay and signed by Thomas Jefferson and John Adams—established diplomatic relations between the two countries. Modified in 1836 with the addition of various security and commercial protocols, the accord is still in force, making it the United States' longest unbroken treaty relationship. But as venerable as this history is, the strategic importance of Morocco to pursuing the Atlantic community's interests in the security and development of northwestern Africa has only recently become fully apparent to US policymakers and analysts. President Barack Obama's invitation to King Mohammed VI to make an official visit to the United States this year indicates the importance that both countries attach to this significant strategic relationship.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Terrorism, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
United States, North America, Morocco, and Northwest Africa

9. Iran, Afghanistan, and South Asia: Resolving Regional Sources of Instability

Author:
Barbara Slavin and Fatemah Aman
Publication Date:
11-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
When compared to its often rocky relations with Arab countries to the west, the Islamic Republic of Iran has managed to retain largely cordial ties with its neighbors to the east. Historic linguistic, religious, and cultural connections have helped Iran keep its influence in South Asia and become a key trading partner despite US-led sanctions. Because of its strategic location on the Persian Gulf and Arabian Sea, Iran provides India with access to Afghanistan and Central Asia that does not require transit through Pakistan. However, Iran and its neighbors, including Pakistan, face acute challenges such as scarce and poorly managed water resources, ethnic insurgencies, energy imbalances, and drug trafficking that require regional solutions.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Terrorism, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Afghanistan, United States, Iran, South Asia, Central Asia, Middle East, Arabia, North America, and Persia

10. Beyond Attribution: Seeking National Responsibility in Cyber Attacks

Author:
Jason Healey
Publication Date:
02-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
For more than two decades, cyber defenders, intelligence analysts, and policymakers have struggled to determine the source of the most damaging attacks. This "attribution problem" will only become more critical as we move into a new era of cyber conflict with even more attacks ignored, encouraged, supported, or conducted by national governments.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Science and Technology, Terrorism, International Security, and Reform
Political Geography:
China

11. Preparing for Cyber 9/12

Author:
Jason Healey
Publication Date:
06-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
Experts have warned about a massive surprise cyber attack since at least 1991, when Winn Schwartau testified to Congress about the dangers of an "electronic Pearl Harbor." More recently, the analogy has changed to a "cyber 9/11" but the fear is generally the same: the dependence of modern economies and societies on cyberspace means a digital attack could fundamentally disrupt our way of life and be remembered for decades as the day everything changed.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Economics, Science and Technology, and Terrorism

12. On Cyber Peace

Author:
Les Bloom and John Savage
Publication Date:
08-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
The best deterrence to cyber conflict is to aggressively pursue national and international risk mitigation at the same time that we explore a full-spectrum of cyber capabilities. Nations should strive to reduce the emerging cyber arms race by developing a basis for trust. The international community has already taken useful steps in this direction with, for example, the European Convention on Cybercrime and the UN report on cyber security which calls for a set of actions that would make information infrastructures more secure.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Science and Technology, Terrorism, War, and International Security
Political Geography:
United Nations

13. Egypt's Imperiled Transition: Pakistan on the Nile?

Author:
Michele Dunne
Publication Date:
11-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
As Egypt prepares to hold its first post-Tahrir elections, the transitional military government is trying to turn de facto influence into de jure powers written into the new constitution, such as freedom from civilian control over senior appointments and budgetary oversight. While most political parties have agreed not to challenge the extensive influence and economic perquisites of the military for now—understanding that full civilian oversight might take years to achieve—allowing the military to formalize such powers would create enormous new obstacles to eventual democratization. Egypt is now in danger of producing a post-revolutionary system similar to that of Pakistan, where elected civilian institutions are relatively powerless while unelected and unaccountable military and intelligence services actually run the country, fanning the flames of sectarianism and terrorism.
Topic:
Democratization, Terrorism, Sectarianism, and Political Power Sharing
Political Geography:
Pakistan and Middle East

14. The Five Futures of Cyber Conflict and Cooperation

Author:
Jason Healey
Publication Date:
12-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
The word cyberspace is nearly thirty years old, and during that time, academics, theorists, and strategists have been considering how conflict will unfold in this new domain .As yet, though, little has been published on what kinds of different futures may await us .For example, many writers seem to imply that cyberspace itself is relatively static, when it is in fact constantly transformed through changes in usage and technology. Indeed, today's generation of digital natives has never known a world without the Internet, and their experience of cyberspace—especially in terms of security, privacy, and collaboration—will be very different from that of previous generations weaned on mainframes, modems, desktop computers, and AOL. If cyberspace is different and younger generations use it differently, then future conflict and cooperation in cyberspace may be unlike anything experienced or even envisioned by Cold War-era thinkers and strategists.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Science and Technology, Terrorism, and International Security
Political Geography:
North America

15. Afghanistan, Pakistan and NATO's Strategic Concept

Author:
Boyko Noev and Harlan Ullman
Publication Date:
04-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen is overseeing the drafting of NATO's latest Strategic Concept, set to replace the current version approved in 1999. Even though only a decade has passed, changes across the globe have been stunning and in some cases revolutionary. For NATO, we believe the challenge of the Strategic Concept is to address the question of whether NATO is still relevant or whether it has become a relic. We strongly believe the former. However, that can no longer be taken for granted. Twenty years after the Soviet Union imploded, the Alliance must finally find a new strategic anchor for its raison d'être or deal with the implications of becoming a relic or an Alliance that may have served its purpose.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, NATO, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Asia

16. NATO, Terrorism and Irregular Threats

Author:
Julian Lindley-French and Sebastian Gorka
Publication Date:
06-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
Today's NATO is not the NATO of the Cold War. Nor is it even the NATO of just a decade ago. If the dissolution of the Warsaw Pact and then the USSR were not enough to fundamentally alter the geopolitical reality the Alliance found itself in, then the events of September 11, 2001 should be considered an evolutionary marker in the development of modern history's "most successful" alliance.
Topic:
Cold War, Terrorism, and Non State Actors
Political Geography:
Europe and North America

17. Cyber Security: An Integrated Governmental Strategy for Progress

Author:
Franklin D. Kramer
Publication Date:
09-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
Cyber security has emerged as a critical challenge in an era defined by global interconnectedness and digital information. While there are multiple ongoing efforts that seek to enhance cyber security, an integrated governmental strategy to meet that challenge has only begun and has yet fully to take shape. All strategies demand recognition of risk and prioritization of resources, and cyber strategy will be no different.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Intelligence, Science and Technology, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
United States and North America

18. Conflicting Policy Presumptions about Cyber security: Cyber–Prophets, –Priests, –Detectives, and –Designers, and Strategies for a Cybered World

Author:
Chris Demchak
Publication Date:
08-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
A spate of attacks from both state and nonstate actors have provoked other Western nations to join the United States in emphasizing cyber security as a national security priority. As noted by Deputy Secretary of Defense William Lynn last July, any peer state, proxy organization, or skilled group of close friends anywhere in the world with unfettered internet access is able to attack in milliseconds due to the global, open, and easy nature of the world's now huge telecommunications systems. The world of "cybered conflict" is one in which even the part-time foreign attacker can to an unprecedented degree flexibly choose the scale, proximity, and precision of any attempted attack. They can at their leisure aim at any state's military, government or commercial networks, or those of any of our allies, or associates.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Science and Technology, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
United States

19. NATO Missile Defense: Is Europe Ready?

Author:
Edgar Buckley
Publication Date:
11-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
No wonder everyone looks forward to a positive decision on making territorial missile defense a NATO task at the upcoming Lisbon Summit. Allies will breathe a collective sigh of relief for two reasons. First, proliferation of missile technology has exposed Europe to real future risks and threats, which can only be countered defensively through early preparation and deployments. Second, absent such a decision, the United States' Phased Adaptive Approach (PAA) – to be deployed in Europe whatever the summit decides – is a fundamental challenge to NATO, detracting from its overall responsibility for collective defense and raising acutely uncomfortable issues, such as the prospect of U.S.-commanded defenses operating in parallel with Article 5 defense of NATO.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Nuclear Weapons, Terrorism, and International Security
Political Geography:
Europe

20. Law the Lone Superpower: Rebuilding a Transatlantic Consensus on International Law

Author:
Frances G. Burwell and William H. Taft IV
Publication Date:
04-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
Throughout 2006, allegations of U.S. involvement in "renditions" of suspected terrorists from Europe to prisons in Afghanistan and elsewhere reverberated around European capitals. Charges that the United States had established secret prisons in some European countries raised the temperature even further. The European Parliament and the Council of Europe initiated investigations, while some European leaders called for the United States to close its detention facility in Guantanamo, describing the facility as contrary to international law.
Topic:
Terrorism and Torture
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United States, and Europe

21. Security Cooperation and Non-State Threats: A Call for an Integrated Strategy

Author:
Albert Zaccor
Publication Date:
08-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
There is widespread recognition that the struggle against international terrorism relies heavily on the cooperation of our partners and allies. The National Security Strategy (NSS) of the United States declares that the U.S. will hold partners responsible for doing their part in the struggle -- including efforts to stem the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and trafficking of illicit drugs -- but admits that weaker nations may not be able to fulfill that responsibility. That strategy and other subordinate strategies call for U.S. assistance to those states that lack the capacity to counter effectively those threats. This places foreign assistance and building partner and allied security capabilities at the center of the struggle against terrorism and related transnational threats.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, Development, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
United States

22. Topics in Terrorism: Toward a Transatlantic Consensus on the Nature of the Threat

Author:
Jason S. Purcell (ed) and Joshua D. Weintraub (ed)
Publication Date:
07-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
The Brussels Conference on “Topics in Terrorism: Toward a Transatlantic Consensus on the Nature of the Threat” was the first of three conferences whose principal purpose was to explore specific themes associated with the world-wide effort to cope with and counter the threat of terrorists. Held in three different European capitals (Brussels, Vienna, and Budapest), the conferences drew on divergent presenters and audiences. Each conference convened subject-matter experts from the United States and Europe with the express intent of considering various perspectives on some of the most difficult challenges facing the transatlantic community. While reaching a consensus on each of the major topics would certainly have been a desirable outcome, where a consensus proved elusive, a major objective was to gain a better understanding of the divergent views and the rationale that underpins those views.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, and Vienna

23. The Post 9/11 Partnership: Transatlantic Cooperation Against Terrorism

Author:
David L. Aaron, Frances G. Burwell, C. Richard Nelson, Anna M. Beauchesne, K. Jack Riley, and Brian Zimmer
Publication Date:
12-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
On September 11, 2001, the world was introduced to a new type of terrorism, one that was truly global in its organization and its impact. In both Europe and the United States, it was immediately clear that an effective response would require new levels of cooperation across the Atlantic and around the world. The initial response was in part military, as NATO invoked its mutual defense clause for the first time ever and a military campaign began in Afghanistan. But equally important was the decision by both the European Union and the United States to boost the capacity of their domestic law enforcement agencies and judiciary to respond to global terrorism and to look for ways to cooperate with each other in doing so. Since then, U.S.-EU cooperation in combating terrorism has been one of the success stories of transatlantic relations.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United States, and Europe

24. NATO's Role in Confronting International Terrorism

Author:
Richard A. Clarke, C. Richard Nelson, and Barry R. McCaffrey
Publication Date:
06-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
Leaders on both sides of the Atlantic agree that a successful global effort to confront terrorism will require a multi–faceted approach that draws on the strengths and unique assets of many international organizations. One such, the European Union (EU), has already taken a leading role in coordinating national efforts in areas closely tied to many of that organization's key functions (i.e. judicial and law–enforcement cooperation, financial controls and border security). Similarly, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) has and ought to have an important role coordinating other aspects of Western national responses, notably – though not exclusively – those in which military forces are likely to play a primary or a supporting part.
Topic:
NATO, International Cooperation, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
United States and Europe

25. Do Economic Sanctions Work? Lessons from ILSA Other Sanctions Regimes

Author:
Stuart E. Eizenstat
Publication Date:
04-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
The 1990s saw a cascade of contentious sanctions legislation. Congress passed the Antiterrorism and Effective Death Penalty Act of 1996, including an amendment to the Sovereign Immunities Act, which permits lawsuits against governments on the terrorism list – a major step in denying foreign governments normal immunity from suit in U.S. courts. The Iran–Libya Sanctions Act (ILSA) was also passed in 1996, with the goal of discouraging third–country companies from investing in Iran or Libya. This sparked outrage from European countries, which objected to the act's “extra–territorial” reach, and from the European Union (EU) institutionally, which responded with a law barring any European company from complying with the legislation (and with similar provisions regarding Cuban trade under the controversial Helms–Burton Act).
Topic:
International Relations, Economics, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
United States and Europe

26. U.S. - Libyan Relations: Toward Cautious Reengagement

Author:
C. Richard Nelson and Chester A. Crocker
Publication Date:
04-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
The current U.S. strategy towards Libya – an implicit strategy of isolation – was developed for a very different international context than the one that currently exists. Put in place during the 1980s, the strategy was appropriate for the Cold War context and for dealing with Libya's hostile behavior at the time. Since then, however, both the general context and specific Libyan behavior have changed, rendering the current set of accumulated laws and regulations that govern U.S. relations with Libya outdated and inappropriate. Furthermore, the current strategy provides no vision for U.S.–Libyan relations once the remaining issues surrounding the 1988 bombing of Pan Am flight 103 are resolved. Thus, U.S. strategy needs to be changed to reflect better the new environment and new opportunities.
Topic:
Security and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Africa and United States