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242. Can German Locomotive Drive the European Economy?
- Author:
- Jan Neutze and Frances G. Burwell
- Publication Date:
- 03-2007
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- During the second half of 2006 and in early 2007, the German economic engine seemed to gain speed, moving into recovery after several years of stagnation. Whether this recovery is sustainable is still unclear, however. With its reliance on exports, Germany remains vulnerable to any downturn in the global economy. Nor is it yet clear that the recent upswing will result in long term job growth and increased consumer spending. To reinforce this recovery, the chancellor should go beyond an economic policy based on balancing the budget and reducing corporate taxes. She should focus now on creating more flexible conditions of employment, so that more workers can be hired and companies can expand, and should work with German business to develop the successor industries to today's export champions. Her government must also rethink the failed policy of subsidizing the eastern Länder, and take steps to deal with the long term challenges of an aging workforce and an education system that does not produce workers with the right skills. Chancellor Merkel knows that coping with globalization will require a liberalized economy with more freedom and flexibility for its workers and its companies.
- Topic:
- Economics, Political Economy, and Regional Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- Germany
243. What Could Go Wrong?
- Author:
- Harry Harding
- Publication Date:
- 01-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- China has done remarkably well in its development over the last twenty-five years. It has achieved and sustained high rates of economic growth, lifting millions out of poverty. It has achieved a significant place in the international economy. It is widely regarded as a major power, not only in Asia but also increasingly on a global stage. Looking ahead, however, things could go wrong – possibly quite seriously wrong – for China, and if China experiences serious problems, its size and its expanded role in the world mean that there could be serious consequences for the broader international community as well.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
244. China Succeeding Beyond Expectations
- Author:
- Albert Kiedel
- Publication Date:
- 01-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- What are the implications if China sustains nine-percent growth through 2010? This is the basic question posed by conference organizers. The relevant time frame is what matters most. If China merely maintains nine-percent growth until the year 2010, the implications are not great. Too much is left unknown about what comes after 2010. Even with nine-percent growth over the next five years, China in 2010 will still be at a relatively low level of performance, both overall and in per-capita terms. But if sustaining nine-percent growth to 2010 means that China has launched on-going reforms that will continue to engineer institutional changes needed for a market economy's successful commercial and political management, then the resulting successful development trajectory in the rest of the century will generate profound and, from today's perspective, unexpected consequences.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Development, and Economics
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
245. Comments on China as a Regional Player
- Author:
- Edward J. Lincoln
- Publication Date:
- 01-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- China ought to be able to produce a relatively high economic growth rate over at least the next decade. There are a number of problems confronting the economy, but one of the great lessons of the past half-century of world economic growth is how much growth can result even when economies have considerable institutional flaws. Economists usually speak about the need to get the “fundamentals” right to produce economic growth, but we should also keep in mind that nations need not get have a perfect set of institutions and rules to generate growth.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Regional Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
246. Ukraine's Euro-Atlantic Ambitions: Building an Effective Policy Coordination Process
- Author:
- F. Stephen Larrabee, Jeffrey Simon, Jan Neutze, and Steven Pifer
- Publication Date:
- 02-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- Since his inauguration in January 2005, Ukrainian President Viktor Yush-chenko has repeatedly stated that his foremost foreign policy goal is his country's integration into European and Euro-Atlantic institutions. “Joining Europe” today, be it preparing a country for a bid to enter the European Union or NATO, is an extraordinarily complex business. It will require the development of a consensus on a Euro-Atlantic policy course among the country's political leadership. It will also require an effective and coherent policy coordination structure. As the experience of other Eastern European countries has demonstrated, integration into the European Union or NATO is not just the responsibility of the foreign and defense ministries. It also requires coordination with the ministries of economy, justice, agrarian policy, transportation and communications, internal affairs – indeed, virtually every ministry in the Ukrainian Cabinet.
- Topic:
- International Relations and NATO
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and Asia
247. Taiwan In Search of a Strategic Consensus
- Author:
- Banning Garrett, Franklin Kramer, and Jonathan M. Adams
- Publication Date:
- 03-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- At the beginning of 2006, Taiwan is confronted with difficult choices that it currently seems unprepared to face. Cross-Strait tensions have diminished in the last year and Taiwan's economy has grown at an annualized rate of about 3.6 percent, which is respectable if not robust by East Asian standards. Taiwan, however, also faces an East Asian future which likely includes an increasingly important role for its relations with the Mainland as China becomes an ever more important economic and political factor regionally and globally.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- China, Taiwan, East Asia, and Asia
248. Transatlantic Transformation: Building a NATO-EU Security Architecture
- Author:
- David C. Gompert, Jan M. Lodal, Leslie S. Lebl, Walter B. Slocombe, and Frances G. Burwell
- Publication Date:
- 03-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- Since 1989, the security environment facing the United States and its European allies has changed beyond recognition. The Soviet Union has disintegrated, as has the division of Europe between East and West, and new threats have arisen. The disintegration of Yugoslavia in the 1990s demonstrated that instability and war emerging from failing states could affect the peace and security of Europe. After 2001, global terrorism became the priority threat, especially when linked with the prospect of proliferation of weapons of mass destruction.
- Topic:
- Security, NATO, and Development
- Political Geography:
- United States, Europe, Soviet Union, and Yugoslavia
249. Libya and the United States: The Next Steps
- Author:
- Ronald Bruce St. Jon
- Publication Date:
- 03-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- On the evening of December 19, 2003, the Libyan Foreign Ministry issued a statement, the product of nine months of tough negotiations with the United Kingdom and United States, renouncing weapons of mass destruction and related missile delivery systems. The statement said Libya had “decided, with its own free will, to get rid of these substances, equipment and programmes and to be free from all internationally banned weapons.” It added Libya intended to comply with the Missile Technology Control Regime, the nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, the International Atomic Energy Agency (iaea) Safeguards Agreement and Additional Protocol, and international biological and chemical weapons agreements and treaties. It pledged to “take these measures in a transparent way that could be proved, including accepting immediate international inspection.” Soon after the issuance of this statement, Libyan leader Muammar al-Qaddafi publicly endorsed the move, terming it a “wise decision and a courageous step.”
- Topic:
- International Relations and Security
- Political Geography:
- United States, United Kingdom, Middle East, Libya, and North Africa
250. China and the World Economy Workshop. Conference Summary
- Author:
- Robert Kapp
- Publication Date:
- 12-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- Peter Bottelier, the principal presenter of this topic, opened by noting that much discussion now surrounds the evolving “new line” embodied in China's economic plans for the next five years. The three agricultural questions, self-innovation, regional adjustment, opening up of a win-win “harmonious society,” and economizing on energy use: what do these and other much-discussed new terms really mean?
- Topic:
- Economics, Globalization, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
251. China as Producer: Chinese Industry After 25 Years of Reform
- Author:
- Thomas Rawski
- Publication Date:
- 12-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- Beginning with the start of reform in the late 1970s, China's industry has recorded impressive growth of output, labor productivity, and exports as well as dramatic upgrading of the quality and variety of output. These gains have occurred in spite of difficulties arising from lethargic state enterprises, inadequate corporate governance, excessive official intervention, corruption, and weak financial institutions.
- Topic:
- Economics, Industrial Policy, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
252. China as Consumer
- Author:
- Kenneth Lieberthal
- Publication Date:
- 12-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- This article seeks to examine two key issues that will be major drivers of consumption in China over the coming five years: urbanization and environmental amelioration. Whether the issues identified will be the largest factors over this time frame remains unclear, but each of these two areas warrants considerable attention as a very significant contributor to the future of consumer demand in China.
- Topic:
- Economics, Environment, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
253. China as Employer and Consumer: Economic Outlook for the 11th Five-Year Plan (2006-2010)
- Author:
- Arthur R. Kroeber
- Publication Date:
- 12-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- China's impressive economic growth of the past quarter century (9.4 percent average annual real GDP growth between 1980 and 2004, by official figures) is not miraculous; on the contrary, it can largely be explained by conventional models of economic development.
- Topic:
- Economics, Human Welfare, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
254. Hu Jintao's Outbox
- Author:
- Joseph Fewsmith
- Publication Date:
- 12-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- China has now sustained two and a half decades of high-speed growth. This growth has been even faster with regard to exports and China's role in international trade. Domestically, a capitalist tendency seems to be everywhere, while internationally the rise of China, whether peaceful or not, seems – at least to some – to threaten Western jobs, prosperity, and the international order. The focus of this paper, however, is not this question of whether or how China poses a threat to the West but rather an old (but new) question of how this “capitalist” conversion is compatible with the continued rule of a communist party. This is a question of considerable practical import, as people contemplate what the continued growth of the Chinese economy might mean for the political stability of that country, but it is also a question of considerable theoretical import: Leninist parties that sought to “include” external interests, it was argued, are on the way to collapse. It is only a matter of time. The time frame for China has lasted longer than theoreticians had supposed, though they might yet prove to be right – perhaps the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has lasted longer than people imagined but it might still be on the road to collapse. This point of view would find supporters, both in the West and in China, but even if they prove right, it is important to inquire more deeply about what is going on in China, whether institutions are being created, and if so whether they might provide a foundation for a post-communist China or whether they suggest a more chaotic future.
- Topic:
- Economics and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
255. The Future of NATO-Russia Relations: Or, How to Dance With a Bear and Not Get Mauled
- Author:
- Lt. Colonel Gordon B. Hendrickson
- Publication Date:
- 12-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- Following the dissolution of the Soviet Union and the Warsaw Pact, NATO has enlarged its membership twice with countries formerly under Soviet influence and control, and the Alliance is now preparing to begin the process for a third expansion effort. During this time, Russia has watched the borders of NATO creep ever closer to its own, but has generally been powerless to prevent it. Although NATO has taken pains to include and consult with Russia regarding its actions and future plans, the Kremlin cannot reasonably be expected to continue to watch NATO's expansion eastward without eventually pushing back hard. Without question, many significant issues and challenges must still be solved before enlarging the Alliance once again. In light of this, NATO must work rigorously to continue to keep Russia engaged in a productive and mutually beneficial relationship as both sides work through the future obstacles that inevitably will arise in the NATO -Russia relationship.
- Topic:
- International Relations and NATO
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Asia, and Soviet Union
256. The Inevitable Peaking of World Oil Production
- Author:
- Robert L. Hirsch
- Publication Date:
- 10-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- The era of plentiful, low-cost petroleum is approaching an end. The good news is that commercially viable mitigation options are ready for implementation. The bad news is that unless mitigation is orchestrated on a timely basis, the economic damage to the world economy will be dire and long-lasting.
- Topic:
- Economics, Energy Policy, Environment, and Government
257. Security Cooperation and Non-State Threats: A Call for an Integrated Strategy
- Author:
- Albert Zaccor
- Publication Date:
- 08-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- There is widespread recognition that the struggle against international terrorism relies heavily on the cooperation of our partners and allies. The National Security Strategy (NSS) of the United States declares that the U.S. will hold partners responsible for doing their part in the struggle -- including efforts to stem the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and trafficking of illicit drugs -- but admits that weaker nations may not be able to fulfill that responsibility. That strategy and other subordinate strategies call for U.S. assistance to those states that lack the capacity to counter effectively those threats. This places foreign assistance and building partner and allied security capabilities at the center of the struggle against terrorism and related transnational threats.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, Development, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- United States
258. Germany and the Future of the Transatlantic Economy
- Author:
- Jan Neutze and Philipa Tucker
- Publication Date:
- 08-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- A senior delegation from the Atlantic Council of the United States, led by W. Bowman Cutter and Paula Stern, visited key government, parliamentary, and private sector stakeholders in Frankfurt, Berlin, and Brussels in spring 2005. The delegation presented the findings of the Atlantic Council report, "The Transatlantic Economy in 2020: A Partnership for the Future?" to numerous business, government, and think tank audiences. This report summarizes the delegation's discussions.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States, Europe, Germany, and Berlin
259. Topics in Terrorism: Toward a Transatlantic Consensus on the Nature of the Threat
- Author:
- Jason S. Purcell (ed) and Joshua D. Weintraub (ed)
- Publication Date:
- 07-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- The Brussels Conference on “Topics in Terrorism: Toward a Transatlantic Consensus on the Nature of the Threat” was the first of three conferences whose principal purpose was to explore specific themes associated with the world-wide effort to cope with and counter the threat of terrorists. Held in three different European capitals (Brussels, Vienna, and Budapest), the conferences drew on divergent presenters and audiences. Each conference convened subject-matter experts from the United States and Europe with the express intent of considering various perspectives on some of the most difficult challenges facing the transatlantic community. While reaching a consensus on each of the major topics would certainly have been a desirable outcome, where a consensus proved elusive, a major objective was to gain a better understanding of the divergent views and the rationale that underpins those views.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Development, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- United States, Europe, and Vienna
260. Global Futures and Implications for U.S. Basing
- Author:
- Franklin D. Kramer and C. Richard Nelson
- Publication Date:
- 06-2005
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- This report provides the working group's insights about the future of overseas bases derived from U.S. experience over the last 60 years. It highlights key assumptions about the future security environment, proposes recommendations and identifies issues that need further study.
- Topic:
- International Relations and Security
- Political Geography:
- United States