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101. Canada-US Arctic Marine Corridors and Resource Development

Author:
James Manicom, John Higginbotham, and Andrea Charron
Publication Date:
11-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
The shrinking Arctic ice cap is creating unprecedented geophysical change in the circumpolar region, a trend that is very likely to continue. Together, this “great melt” and the delineation of extended national economic zones afford increased access to economic resources in the Arctic Ocean. Intense activities in commercial, investment, diplomatic, legal, scientific and academic sectors abound in the new Arctic, but the region's long-term significance is only gradually penetrating North American public consciousness. Media reports such as the recent, virtually ice-free trans-polar transit of a Chinese icebreaker through the Russian Northern Sea Route, or the transit of the Northwest Passage by a large cruise ship, are only the tip of the proverbial economic iceberg. In preparing for the commercialization of the Arctic Ocean, Canada and the United States, as major nations bordering the Arctic, face enormous opportunities in protecting economic and environmental interests; however, a number of challenges impede the fulfillment of this vision.
Topic:
Climate Change, Development, Economics, Environment, Oil, Natural Resources, and Infrastructure
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, China, Canada, and North America

102. A Global Trust for Rule of Law

Author:
Mark P. Lagon
Publication Date:
10-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
The rule of law is critical for people to have a meaningful opportunity to thrive. Still, for billions of people around the world today, the rule of law exists on paper but not in practice. Even though a theme for the United Nations General Assembly High-Level Panel in fall 2012 is rule of law, various UN programs devoted to rule of law have not had a transformative impact. Traditional intergovernmental institutions will never offer enough to achieve systemic change. To supplement them and achieve what they alone cannot, the United States should take the lead to forge a more nimble partnership with public, private, and nonprofit sectors and establish a Global Trust for Rule of Law (“Global Trust”). Similar to the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria (“Global Fund”), a diverse board of donor states, philanthropists, rule of law experts, and civil society representatives would run this Global Trust. Its purpose would be to build developing nations' capacity to implement rule of law and unleash the potential of marginalized groups worldwide, promoting not only human dignity but, crucially, global economic growth.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Human Rights, International Cooperation, International Law, Non-Governmental Organization, and United Nations
Political Geography:
United States

103. A New Paradigm? Prospects and Challenges for U.S. Global Leadership

Author:
Tural Ahmadov
Publication Date:
12-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Global Political Trends Center (GPoT)
Abstract:
Throughout the years the overwhelming preponderance of US global leadership is debated by scholars and politicians. In light of the 'rise of the rest', this preponderance is either diminishing or still standing. As of now, yet again, the US is a dominant player both economically and militarily. However, economic recession is likely to make the United States put more emphasis on domestic problems and less emphasis on foreign challenges. Since political and economic landscape is swiftly changing overseas, the United States should act accordingly and cooperate with regional powers on issues of mutual interest. Similarly, as current development is under way in the Middle East, the United States should staunchly back Turkey as the regional hub in dealing with Syrian crisis and foiling Iranian menace.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Economics, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, and Asia

104. How Can Trade Policy Help America Compete?

Author:
Robert Z. Lawrence
Publication Date:
10-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
America deserves credit for not having succumbed to the global financial crisis by repeating the protectionist mistakes of the 1930s. Nonetheless, since 2007, although lip service has been paid to boosting US exports, its trade policy accomplishments have been modest. This is unfortunate because active trade policies can promote American living standards and facilitate America's return to full employment and sustained growth. These policies can also help to create a global trade order that advances American interests. This policy brief argues that the United States needs new initiatives that discipline foreign practices, increase access to foreign markets, revitalize the World Trade Organization (WTO), improve the administrative and regulatory environment for trade, and assist workers and communities adversely affected by change.
Topic:
Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Global Recession, Monetary Policy, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
United States and America

105. Combating Widespread Currency Manipulation

Author:
Joseph E. Gagnon Gagnon
Publication Date:
07-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
Widespread currency manipulation, mainly in developing and newly industrialized economies, is the most important development of the past decade in international financial markets. In an attempt to hold down the values of their currencies, governments are distorting capital flows by around $1.5 trillion per year. The result is a net drain on aggregate demand in the United States and the euro area by an amount roughly equal to the large output gaps in the United States and the euro area. In other words, millions more Americans and Europeans would be employed if other countries did not manipulate their currencies and instead achieved sustainable growth through higher domestic demand.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Monetary Policy
Political Geography:
United States, America, and Europe

106. Currency Manipulation, the US Economy, and the Global Economic Order

Author:
C. Fred Bergsten and Joseph E. Gagnon
Publication Date:
12-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
More than 20 countries have increased their aggregate foreign exchange reserves and other official foreign assets by an annual average of nearly $1 trillion in recent years. This buildup of official assets—mainly through intervention in the foreign exchange markets—keeps the currencies of the interveners substantially undervalued, thus boosting their international competitiveness and trade surpluses. The corresponding trade deficits are spread around the world, but the largest share of the loss centers on the United States, whose trade deficit has increased by $200 billion to $500 billion per year as a result. The United States has lost 1 million to 5 million jobs due to this foreign currency manipulation.
Topic:
Economics, Globalization, International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, and World Trade Organization
Political Geography:
United States

107. Restoring Fiscal Equilibrium in the United States

Author:
William R. Cline
Publication Date:
06-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
Halfway through this presidential election year, there is great uncertainty about how, when, and even whether the United States will restore fiscal sustainability. As shown by the near-default because of the impasse over the debt ceiling in July 2011, the two parties have been in sharp opposition on this issue. The Republicans have insisted that adjustment be accomplished by spending cuts rather than tax increases. Two hundred and thirty eight Republican congressmen and 41 Republican senators have signed the Grover Norquist pledge to oppose any attempt to raise marginal tax rates or reduce deductions without implementing offsetting tax reductions. In contrast, Democratic lawmakers have tended to emphasize the maintenance of social and entitlement programs and expressed a willingness to restore higher tax rates if necessary.
Topic:
Economics, Monetary Policy, Financial Crisis, Governance, and Law
Political Geography:
United States

108. Right Idea, Wrong Direction: Obama's Corporate Tax Reform Proposals

Author:
Gary Clyde Hufbauer and Martin Vieiro
Publication Date:
05-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
The need for US corporate tax reform is blindingly obvious. Conservatives contend that the top corporate tax rate— whether measured in statutory or effective terms—is the second highest in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). Liberals argue that the US corporate tax system is riddled with complex “loopholes,” enabling many firms—whether incorporated or not—to pay less than their fair share.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Monetary Policy, and Governance
Political Geography:
United States

109. US Tire Tariffs: Saving Few Jobs at High Cost

Author:
Gary Clyde Hufbauer and Sean Lowry
Publication Date:
04-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
In his 2012 State of the Union address, President Obama claimed that "over a thousand Americans are working today because we stopped a surge in Chinese tires." The tire tariff case, decided by the president in September 2009, exemplifies his efforts to get China to "play by the rules" and serves as a plank in his larger platform of insourcing jobs to America.
Topic:
Economics, Industrial Policy, International Trade and Finance, and Governance
Political Geography:
United States, China, and America

110. Projecting China's Current Account Surplus

Author:
William R. Cline
Publication Date:
04-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
For several years China has run persistent current account surpluses that have been widely seen as the most serious single source of global imbalances on the surplus side, and mirrored by persistent systemically large US current account deficits on the other side. In recent years, however, both imbalances have shown moderation (figure 1). China's surpluses have posed questions of international policy rules, because they have reflected in part an unwillingness to allow the exchange rate to appreciate sufficiently to act as an effective equilibrating mechanism. Exchange rate intervention resulted in a massive buildup of international reserves, which rose from $615 billion at the end of 2004 to $3.2 trillion at the end of 2011 (IMF 2012a).
Topic:
Economics, Emerging Markets, Foreign Exchange, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States, China, and Israel

111. A China – US bilateral investment treaty: A template for a multilateral framework for investment?

Author:
Karl P. Sauvant and Huiping Chen
Publication Date:
12-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:
China is the largest foreign direct investment (FDI) host and home country among emerging markets, the United States among developed countries. As host countries, both seek to maintain policy space to pursue their own legitimate public policy objectives; as home countries, both seek to protect their investors' outward FDI. The development of their bilateral investment treaties (BITs) over the past decade reflects this: Chinese BITs have become more protective of investors, US ones more respectful of host country interests. If agreement is reached between both, it would provide a template for future investment agreements.
Topic:
Economics, Emerging Markets, Treaties and Agreements, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:
United States and China

112. Kazakhstan and the United States: Twenty Years of Ambiguous Partnership

Author:
Sean R. Roberts
Publication Date:
01-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
In looking at twenty years of independence in the former Soviet region of Central Asia, Kazakhstan stands out in most respects as a stable oasis in a desert of uncertainty. It is the wealthiest country in Central Asia. It has not suffered any serious conflict since gaining independence, and the development of its economy, financial sector, and private sector has been steadily moving forward as has its engagement with the global economy. It is little wonder, therefore, that the most stable and fruitful bilateral partnership for the United States in the region over the past twenty years has been with the Republic of Kazakhstan. US-Kazakhstan relations have never experienced a significant crisis, and there has been ongoing cooperation between the two countries in a variety of areas, including nuclear non-proliferation, economic development, and energy extraction.
Topic:
Democratization, Diplomacy, Economics, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
United States, Central Asia, and Kazakhstan

113. The United States and the Global Future

Author:
Banning Garrett, James B. Steinberg, David Ignatius, and Uri Dadush
Publication Date:
03-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
How will the US economy evolve over the next twenty years and what might be the impact of various US economic scenarios on the global system? Will the United States have a Japan-like decade or two of anemic growth? If so, would this lead the United States to reduce its foreign involvement and commitments, become more protectionist, and focus on its internal problems? Or will the United States solve its fiscal and debt problems, reinvigorate growth and innovation, and return to sustainable economic growth? Would this underpin a renewed commitment to active US global leadership in mobilizing international cooperation to manage security, economic growth, and global challenges?
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Debt, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Hegemony
Political Geography:
United States and North America

114. Another Shot at Protection by Stealth: Using the Tax Law to Penalize Foreign Insurance Companies

Author:
Gary Clyde Hufbauer
Publication Date:
01-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
The United States suffers from a severe self-inflicted wound. Together, federal and state governments impose almost the highest corporate tax rate found among advanced countries, 39 percent. Only Japan is fractionally higher. The high US rate has adverse consequences—lost investment, lost jobs, and less innovation—and goes a long way to explain slipping US competitiveness in the world economy.
Topic:
Economics, Industrial Policy, International Trade and Finance, and Markets
Political Geography:
United States and Japan

115. The Fed moves to provide more transparency

Publication Date:
01-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Economics
Abstract:
The Federal Reserve has taken additional actions to make its monetary policy more transparent to markets. The latest moves include the release of FOMC members' expectatins for the federal funds rate at the end of each of the next few years and in the longer term. Another is an statement of strategy for meeting its dual mandates of price stability and full employment. Although the statement included an explicit target for inflation but not for unemployment, the equal weights given to each goal afford the Fed more discretion in setting monetary policy.
Topic:
Economics, Government, Global Recession, Monetary Policy, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
United States

116. Fixing Mortgage Finance: What to Do with the Federal Housing Administration?

Author:
Mark A. Calabria
Publication Date:
02-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
While Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and private subprime lenders have deservedly garnered the bulk of attention and blame for the mortgage crisis, other federal programs also distort our mortgage market and put taxpayers at risk of having to finance massive financial bailouts. The most prominent of these risky agencies is the Federal Housing Administration (FHA).
Topic:
Debt, Economics, Government, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
United States

117. How Verbal Threats to Close Oil Transit Chokepoints Lead to Military Conflict

Author:
John Bowlus
Publication Date:
01-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Global Political Trends Center (GPoT)
Abstract:
On December 26, 2011, in response to US, European, and potential Asian sanctions on Iranian oil exports, the government in Tehran issued a threat to “cut off the Strait of Hormuz.” The US Defense Department responded that any blockade of the strait would be met with force. On first read, it is easy to dismiss such saber rattling as another chapter in the new Cold War in the Middle East between Iran and its allies – including Syria, Hamas, and Hezbollah – and the US, Israel, and the Sunni Gulf States, mostly notably Saudi Arabia. Iran has since backed away from its threat, but the event still carries importance because it is unclear how both the US and Iran will continue to respond, particularly as the diplomatic and economic pressures grow more acute while Iran's controversial nuclear program advances. Could such a verbal threat by Iran to cut off the Strait of Hormuzignite a military conflagration in the region? The relationship between military conflict and oil supply disruptions is well established; however, policymakers and analysts tend to focus on the incidents in which military conflict causes disruptions in oil supplies and sharp increases in prices. The first and most obvious example of this dynamic was the Arab-Israeli War of 1973. The subsequent oil embargo by the Arab members of the Organization for Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) against the United States and the Netherlands for their support of Israel caused prices to soar as oil-consuming nations endured supply shortages. The Iranian Revolution from 1978 to 1979 was another event that curtailed Western nations' access to oil and caused prices to spike. When thinking about the relationship between military conflict and oil supply disruptions, however, policymakers and analysts should also recognize that the competition over oil – and even verbal threats to disrupt oil supplies by closing oil transit chokepoints – have either led directly to military conflict or have provided a useful cover under which countries have initiated military conflict. By examining past episodes when countries issued threats to close oil transit chokepoints, this Policy Brief helps illuminate the dangers associated with the current crisis over the Strait of Hormuz.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Economics, and Sanctions
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, Middle East, Asia, and Arabia

118. Gold Exchange Standard in its 40th Year of Abolition: Jacques Rueff Re-Visited

Author:
Onur Bayramoğlu
Publication Date:
03-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Global Political Trends Center (GPoT)
Abstract:
While the post-war international monetary system that evolved under the leadership of the U.S. dollar has secured credit abundance – and hence contributed to global growth – the system has also revealed its deficiencies already by 1950's. In contrary to the 1930's when the world's main problem was chronic deflation; two decades later, the problem has become chronic inflation and fiscal deficits. Since then many blamed the indiscipline of the Keynesian school of thought and the inability of the U.S. dollar to become a global “public good” by being a stable international currency. In this Policy Brief, I overview the many aspects of the post-war international monetary system through the lens of the post-war French economist, Jacques Rueff, and question the applicability of his longproposed gold standard in today's highly integrated and speculative money markets.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Monetary Policy, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
United States

119. To Stay Ahead of China, Stay Engaged in Asia

Author:
Michael Beckley
Publication Date:
01-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
Despite the hype about the rise of China, current power trends favor continued U.S. dominance. National power has three main material components: wealth, innovation, and military power. Over the last twenty years, China has fallen further behind the United States in all of these areas.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
United States, China, and Asia

120. U.S.-Turkey Relations: A New Partnership

Author:
Stephen J. Hadley, Steven A. Cook, and Madeleine Albright
Publication Date:
05-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
Among the most important developments in international affairs of the past decade is the emergence of Turkey as a rising regional and global power. Turkey has long been an important country as a stalwart member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), an aspirant to European Union (EU) membership, and an important link between the West and the East. Yet the changes in Turkey over the past decade have been so dramatic—with far-reaching political and economic reforms, significant social reforms, and an active foreign policy—that the country is virtually unrecognizable to longtime Turkey watchers. Today Turkey is more democratic, prosperous, and politically influential than it was five, ten, and fifteen years ago.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Political Violence, Democratization, Economics, Human Rights, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, Central Asia, Turkey, and Middle East

121. State-controlled entities control nearly US$ 2 trillion in foreign assets

Author:
Karl P. Sauvant and Jonathan Strauss
Publication Date:
04-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:
Developing country sovereign wealth funds (SWFs) as players in the world foreign direct investment (FDI) market have received considerable attention. While outward FDI from emerging markets has indeed risen dramatically, that by SWFs has been negligible: their outward FDI stock is around US$ 100 billion (compared to a world FDI stock of US$ 20 trillion in 2010).
Topic:
Development, Economics, Emerging Markets, Government, International Law, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:
United States

122. The Freedom Savings Credit: A Practical Step to Build Americans' Household Balance Sheets

Author:
Lisa Mensah, Raymond O'Mara III, Colby Farber, and Robert Weinberger
Publication Date:
02-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Aspen Institute
Abstract:
The imbalance of too much debt and not enough assets fuels financial insecurity in many American households. Building Americans' household balance sheets should start with making savings and asset-building incentives more efficient and equitable. Although millions of working Americans currently receive little or no tax incentive to save, modest reforms to our tax code have the potential to dramatically improve their financial futures. The Aspen Institute Initiative on Financial Security (Aspen IFS) proposes the Freedom Savings Credit to create a more equitable and economically efficient savings system that will benefit millions of American households and the nation as a whole.
Topic:
Security, Debt, Economics, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
United States and America

123. Economic patriotism: Dealing with Chinese direct investment in the United States

Author:
Sophie Meunier
Publication Date:
05-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:
China is investing throughout the world, in industries from automobiles to zinc. In the US, Chinese foreign direct investment (FDI) accounted for only 0.25% of total FDI stock in 2010,but it is likely to increase as China diversifies its holdings and seeks to obtain technology, managerial know-how and easier access to US consumers. As these investments multiply, we expect a few cases to attract negative attention in the media and political arena. Chinese companies are predominately state-controlled, raising the specter that they act to fulfill strategic, rather than profit maximizing, goals. China is also an ideological rival, causing irrational concern that Chinese investment in the US may act as a Trojan Horse of Chinese values and politics --fueled by rational concerns about subsidies, piracy, and economic espionage.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:
United States and China

124. US Agricultural Exports to ASEAN Grow - But Face Competition

Author:
Michael McConnell
Publication Date:
03-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
ASEAN countries have long been an important international market for US agricultural exports. The United States, in 2011, exported almost $9.6 billion of agricultural products to ASEAN, making it the sixth-largest export destination for US farmers, ranchers, and agribusinesses—behind Japan ($14 billion) and just behind the European Union ($9.6 billion), but well ahead of South Korea ($7 billion). Moreover, the value of agricultural trade between the United States and ASEAN almost doubled between 2007 and 2011, with the top four ASEAN markets in 2011 for the United States being Indonesia ($2.8 billion), the Philippines ($2.1 billion), Vietnam ($1.7 billion), and Thailand ($1.3 billion). With a population of 614 million and strong economic growth, it is expected that ASEAN will continue to be an important market for US agricultural products. However, the United States is likely to face increasing competition, particularly from China, Australia, and New Zealand, all of which have free trade agreements (FTAs) with ASEAN.
Topic:
Agriculture, Demographics, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Food
Political Geography:
United States, China, Europe, East Asia, South Korea, Australia, Southeast Asia, and New Zealand

125. U.S.-China Competition in Asia: Legacies Help America

Author:
Robert Sutter
Publication Date:
02-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
As Sino-American competition for influence enters a new stage with the Obama administration's re-engagement with Asia, each power's legacies in the region add to economic, military and diplomatic factors determining which power will be more successful in the competition. How the United States and China deal with their respective histories in regional affairs and the role of their non-government relations with the Asia- Pacific represent important legacies that on balance favor the United States.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Diplomacy, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
United States, China, America, and Asia

126. Taiwan: Crisis Deferred, But Maybe Not For Long

Author:
Denny Roy
Publication Date:
01-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Taiwan's elections on January 14, which for the first time combined polls for the presidency and the legislature, displayed further positive evolution in Taiwan's now well-established democracy. The results also precluded an immediate disruption in relations between Taiwan and the PRC, which is good news in Washington. In Beijing's view, however, the goal is not stability across the Taiwan Strait, but unification. Chinese impatience might weigh more heavily on President Ma Ying-jeou, and by extension on the United States, during Ma's second term.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, Democratization, Economics, and Politics
Political Geography:
United States, China, Washington, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia

127. EIU: Global outlook summary

Publication Date:
06-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Economist Intelligence Unit
Abstract:
The global economy remains in precarious shape. Europe's debt crisis rages on, and although the euro appears to have survived its most recent test in the form of the Greek election on June 17th, austerity and financial-market uncertainty are depressing economic activity in Europe and, by extension, in much of the rest of the world. The Economist Intelligence Unit continues to expect global GDP growth to slow in 2012, and while our forecasts for the G3 economies—the US, euro zone and China—are essentially unchanged this month, we have cut our projections for Brazil and India.
Topic:
Debt, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
United States, China, Europe, India, and Brazil

128. Turkey and Saudi Arabia: Newly Discovered Partners?

Author:
Muhittin Ataman
Publication Date:
07-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
SETA Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research
Abstract:
When we consider Saudi Arabian large population, territories and natural resources, it is obvious that it will continue to preserve its geopolitical, geo-economic and geo-cultural importance in future. The assumption of King Abdullah as the ruler of the country provided an opportunity to restructure the country's foreign policy. The new king began to follow a more pragmatic, rational, interdependent, multilateral and multidimensional foreign policy. He pursues an active foreign policy required to be less dependent on a single state (the United States) and on a single product (oil).
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Oil, Political Economy, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
United States, Turkey, Middle East, Arabia, and Saudi Arabia

129. Prospects for Global Growth in 2012

Author:
Onur Bayramoğlu
Publication Date:
03-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Global Political Trends Center (GPoT)
Abstract:
The current concern among many is that what we are faced today is not a usual crisis that is part of the economic cycle, but an era of great stagnation with low growth and high unemployment, not witnessed since the Great Depression of the 1930's. One wonders which country will drive global growth while major actors such as the European Union are now financial casinos, the United States is continuously losing its dynamism, Japan is struggling under demographical problems, and the emerging markets are still too small and volatile. Once again, policy makers acknowledge that the problems of growth are global and systematic; such that if one faces an issue, all of them get contaminated. However, they still seek for solutions in mercantilist national policies.
Topic:
Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
United States and Europe

130. Global Oil Production is Surging: Implications for Prices, Geopolitics, and the Environment

Author:
Leonardo Maugeri
Publication Date:
06-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
Oil Production Growth is Global. Global oil output capacity is likely to grow from 93 million barrels per day today to 110 million barrels per day by 2020—the largest increase in a single decade since the 1980s. The surge in oil production capacity will occur almost everywhere, with the largest increases in Iraq, the United States, Canada, Brazil, and Venezuela. United States Will Experience Unprecedented Output. Technological advances will increase the production of “unconventional” oil in the United States, which is in the midst of a shale boom. The Bakken/Three Forks formation in North Dakota alone has as much untapped shale/tight oil as a Persian Gulf country. Oil Prices May Collapse. If oil prices remain at or above $70 per barrel, investments will sustain the 20 percent increase in oil production capacity by 2020. However, world demand is sluggish due to the lagging economy and focus on energy efficiency. If these trends continue, we could see a significant dip—or even a temporary collapse—of oil prices. Shifting Market Has Geopolitical Consequences. While the Western Hemisphere could become oil self-sufficient by 2020, Iraq's oil output will also substantially increase as it stabilizes. China may escalate its competitive and political influence in the Persian Gulf and other oil-producing hotspots, including Canada, Venezuela, and possibly the United States. Oil Boom Must Trigger Environmental Action. Enforcement of environmental regulation and major investment in emission-reducing technologies must accompany the development of unconventional oil. Without this balance between industry and environmental interests, new oil production projects will be stymied or delayed.
Topic:
Economics, Industrial Policy, Oil, Political Economy, and Natural Resources
Political Geography:
United States

131. Unleashing Competition in EU Business Services

Author:
Henk L.M. Kox
Publication Date:
09-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
In most EU member states, the business services industry has booked no productivity growth during the last two decades. The industry's performance in the other member states was weaker than that of its US counterparts. Exploring what may be causing this productivity stagnation, this policy brief reports that weak competition has contributed to the continuing malaise in European business services. The study analyzed the persistence (over time) of firm-level inefficiencies. The evidence further suggests that competition between small firms and large firms in business services is weak. Markets for business services work best in countries with flexible regulation on employment change and with low regulatory costs for firms that start up or close down a business. Countries that are more open to foreign competition perform better in terms of competitive selection and productivity.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
United States and Europe

132. Korea, Colombia, Panama: Pending Trade Accords Offer Economic and Strategic Gains for the United States

Author:
Mauricio Cá¡rdenas and Joshua Meltzer
Publication Date:
07-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
A trio of trade agreements now pending before Congress would benefit the United States both economically and strategically. Carefully developed accords with South Korea, Colombia and Panama will boost U.S. exports significantly, especially in the key automotive, agricultural and commercial services sectors. Among the other benefits are: increased U.S. competitiveness enhancement of U.S. diplomatic and economic postures in East Asia and Latin America new investment opportunities better enforcement of labor regulation and improved transparency in these trading partners' regulatory systems.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Treaties and Agreements, and Labor Issues
Political Geography:
Kenya, United States, Israel, Colombia, and Latin America

133. What Should the United States Do about Doha?

Author:
Jeffrey J. Schott
Publication Date:
06-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
The Doha Round of multilateral trade negotiations in the World Trade Organization (WTO) remains stalled despite the political impetus provided by the Seoul G-20 Summit in November 2010. The major trading nations have not revised their positions enough to propel new negotiations on agriculture, manufactures, and services. There is now little chance to complete an agreement this year and little indication that current efforts could succeed next year.
Topic:
Economics, International Cooperation, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States

134. Shaping global business conduct: The 2011 update of the OECD Guidelines for Multinational Enterprises

Author:
Manfred Schekulin
Publication Date:
09-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:
On May 25, 2011, US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton joined ministers from members of the Organisation of Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and developing economies to celebrate the Organisation\'s 50th anniversary and agree on an update of the OECD Guidelines for Multinational Enterprises, the fifth revision since their adoption in 1976. This marked the culmination of an intense one-year negotiating process involving a large number of stakeholders, international organizations and emerging economies.
Topic:
Development, Economics, International Cooperation, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:
United States

135. Beyond treasuries: A foreign direct investment program for U.S. infrastructure

Author:
Geraldine McAllister and Joel H. Moser
Publication Date:
09-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:
In his jobs address to a joint session of Congress last week, President Obama returned to a familiar theme: a call for nontraditional infrastructure investment as a generator of economic growth and, ultimately, jobs. The President's frequent references to “private investment” and “fully paid” infrastructure are encouraging, yet there is no assurance that domestic private capital investment alone is sufficient to reverse the degradation of the nation's infrastructure. As host to the largest flows of inward foreign direct investment (FDI), it is time that the United States employs this critical source of capital in tackling the nation's infrastructure deficit.
Topic:
Economics, Labor Issues, Infrastructure, Foreign Direct Investment, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
United States

136. US Tax Discrimination Against Large Corporations Should Be Discarded

Author:
Gary Clyde Hufbauer and Martin Vieiro
Publication Date:
10-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
The United States holds contradictory views about large corporations. When Americans speak of breakthroughs in research and engineering, they are justly proud of large firms that pioneered railroads and steam engines in the 19th century, automobiles, electric power, and oil exploration in the 20th century, and computers, software, and biotechnology in the 21st century. Yet when talk turns to paying taxes, public opinion holds that large corporations should pay a higher statutory tax rate than other business firms, and enjoy fewer deductions in computing their taxable income. Despite common sense and the teachings of economics, tax discrimination is alive and well.
Topic:
Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
United States and America

137. Herbert Hoover: Father of the New Deal

Author:
Steven Horwitz
Publication Date:
09-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
Politicians and pundits portray Herbert Hoover as a defender of laissez faire governance whose dogmatic commitment to small government led him to stand by and do nothing while the economy collapsed in the wake of the stock market crash in 1929. In fact, Hoover had long been a critic of laissez faire. As president, he doubled federal spending in real terms in four years. He also used government to prop up wages, restricted immigration, signed the Smoot-Hawley tariff, raised taxes, and created the Reconstruction Finance Corporation-all interventionist measures and not laissez faire. Unlike many Democrats today, President Franklin D. Roosevelt's advisers knew that Hoover had started the New Deal. One of them wrote, "When we all burst into Washington ... we found every essential idea [of the New Deal] enacted in the 100-day Congress in the Hoover administration itself."
Topic:
Economics, Markets, Political Economy, Financial Crisis, and Governance
Political Geography:
United States and Washington

138. Chinese FDI in the United States is taking off: How to maximize its benefits?

Author:
Daniel H. Rosen and Thilo Hanemann
Publication Date:
10-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:
China's outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) grew rapidly in the past decade, but flows to developed economies have been limited. Now China's direct investment flows to the United States are poised to rise substantially. This new trend offers tremendous opportunities for the U. S., provided policymakers take steps to keep the investment environment open and utilize China's new interest productively.
Topic:
Climate Change and Economics
Political Geography:
United States and China

139. Austerity ahead: How will a conservative victory change Spanish politics?

Author:
Teemu Sinkkonen
Publication Date:
11-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The electoral defeat suffered by the ruling Socialist Party (Partido Socialista Obrero Español, PSOE) in the municipal elections and the prolonged financial crisis has forced Prime Minister Zapatero to call an early general election on 20 November. The Conservative People's Party (Partido Popular, PP) is ahead in the polls by a clear margin and is likely to gain an absolute majority in the parliament. The economic outlook for Spain looks bleak, which means that the new government will have to create new jobs quickly and push through harsh and unpopular reforms, particularly regarding the fiscal and administrative structures. The Indignados protest movement is gaining support, and looks set to challenge the legitimacy of the system and force the future government to produce speedy results. Spain is expected to enhance its role in international politics through pragmatic bilateral relations. In particular, relations with the US seem to be warming up, while Spain can turn to the UK and Poland in the EU for companionship
Topic:
Debt, Democratization, Economics, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
United States, United Kingdom, Europe, and Spain

140. What Can and Cannot Be Done about Rating Agencies

Author:
Nicolas Véron
Publication Date:
11-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
Credit Rating Agencies (CRAs) are prominent participants in the assessment of credit risk by financial markets. They determine and publish credit ratings, which represent the CRA's opinions on issuers' relative probability of default. The market for credit ratings is currently dominated in most western countries by three players: n Standard Poor's (S) is a division of the McGraw- Hill Companies, a US-based media group whose ownership is dispersed (the largest shareholder is Capital Group, with 12 percent of shares); n Moody's Corporation is an autonomous US-based listed company with dispersed ownership (the largest shareholder is Berkshire Hathaway, with 12.5 percent of shares); n Fitch Ratings is a division of the Fitch Group which is jointly owned by Fimalac, a Paris-based listed investment vehicle (60 percent of shares), and the US-based Hearst Corporation (40 percent of shares).
Topic:
Debt, Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, and Markets
Political Geography:
United States

141. The United States Should Establish Permanent Normal Trade Relations with Russia

Author:
Gary Clyde Hufbauer and Anders Åslund
Publication Date:
11-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
After 18 years, Russia is finally on the verge of acceding to the World Trade Organization (WTO). No country has struggled for so long to become a member of this important organization. The last impediment was removed on November 9, when Russia and Georgia concluded an agreement on monitoring trade flows across their disputed border. The WTO Working Party, which oversaw the negotiations, then approved Russian accession on November 10, clearing the way for formal membership to be adopted at the WTO ministerial conference to be held December 15–17, 2011 (WTO 2011).
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, and Georgia

142. The Current Currency Situation

Author:
William R. Cline and John Williamson
Publication Date:
11-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
The currency markets have been extremely disturbed for the last three months. The period witnessed a major strengthening of the US dollar in September, then the European currency crisis, a recovery of the euro when the markets believed that the crisis was being controlled, and then a rebound of the dollar. In view of these developments, those who follow currency movements need a new guide as to how the current values of currencies compare to our estimates of fundamental equilibrium exchange rates (FEERs). That is the main object of this paper.
Topic:
Economics, Globalization, International Political Economy, and Monetary Policy
Political Geography:
United States and Europe

143. Toward Greater Pragmatism? China\'s Approach to Innovation and Standardization

Author:
Dieter Ernst
Publication Date:
08-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
University of California Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation (IGCC)
Abstract:
China\'s innovation policy and its perceived threat to American innovation and competitiveness is a hot topic in U.S.-China economic relations. The role of standardization, together with intellectual property rights and government procurement, are at the center of this conflict. Fundamental differences in their levels of development and economic institutions lead to quite different approaches to standards and innovation policy by the two countries. China\'s strategy of pursuing indigenous innovation based on local standards faces internal challenges in trying to bring together a diverse group of stakeholders with conflicting interests, as well as external pressures to adopt international standards. Enhanced cooperation on standards and innovation policies should be possible, once the United States and China accept that, while their economic and innovation systems are different, they are deeply interdependent. Both sides would benefit, creating new Chinese markets for American firms and easing technology licensing restrictions for Chinese firms.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Science and Technology, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
United States, China, America, Asia, and North America

144. Future Perspectives of U.S.-Czech Relations

Author:
Ondřej Ditrych and Nik Hynek
Publication Date:
03-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Institute of International Relations Prague
Abstract:
In the area of security, the Czech Republic and the U.S. should build closer cooperation around President Obama's Prague Agenda, NATO Ballistic Missile Defence project and in the field of post-conflict reconstruction while working together to mitigate obstacles to constructive NATO-EU relations. In economic relations, they should enhance cooperation taking full advantage of the Strategic Dialogue framework both in terms of discussing global and transatlantic trade issues, and in boosting bilateral commerce. Regarding values, they should cooperate more on democratic transition in Eastern Europe, including through the framework of Eastern Partnership in which the U.S. should become involved.
Topic:
Security, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
United States and Europe

145. Crisis in the Congo: CPA Contingency Planning

Author:
Joshua Marks
Publication Date:
05-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
The government of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) led by President Joseph Kabila faces the prospect of collapse. Popular disaffection has grown as a consequence of endemic corruption and a failure to provide broad and sustained economic growth. The possibility of widespread violence around national elections scheduled for November 2011 as well as the emergence of antigovernment movements in the Kivus, Bas Congo, Katanga, or Equateur provinces could precipitate a major political and humanitarian crisis with destabilizing consequences for the region. Having provided billions in foreign assistance and UN peacekeeping support to the DRC and eager to avoid another violent catastrophe in central Africa, the United States faces a looming foreign policy challenge.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Economics, and Sanctions
Political Geography:
Africa and United States

146. The EU's Response to the Financial Crisis: A mid-term review

Author:
Karel Lannoo
Publication Date:
04-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
Two years after the London G-20, CEPS Chief Executive Karel Lannoo finds that the EU is well advanced in delivering on the commitments made for the 2013 target date. Important steps have been taken on the institutional side, and regulatory changes are moving ahead. On some issues, in fact, such as remuneration, the EU has made even greater headway than the US. But certain key sensitive matters remain, such as bank resolution or structural changes.
Topic:
Debt, Economics, Global Recession, Monetary Policy, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, and London

147. Revitalizing the Export-Import Bank

Author:
Gary Clyde Hufbauer, Meera Fickling, and Woan Foong Wong
Publication Date:
05-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
The United States has experienced persistent trade deficits for decades, and thoughtful observers have concluded that deficits cannot be sustained at levels much exceeding 4 percent of GDP annually. There are only two ways to decrease the trade deficit: reduce imports or increase exports. For global economic health, increased exports are a far better proposition.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Monetary Policy
Political Geography:
United States

148. Estimates of Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rates, May 2011

Author:
William R. Cline and John Williamson
Publication Date:
05-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
This policy brief updates our estimates of fundamental equilibrium exchange rates (FEERs) to the latest available data, which for exchange rates are the average rates of April 2011, and for the IMF's balance of payments forecasts, those published in the April 2011 issue of World Economic Outlook (WEO; see IMF 2011a). It is the central study in what has now become a regular annual cycle, in which we draw out what we believe to be the implications of the IMF's forecasts for the pattern that exchange rates need to take if the world is to approach a reasonably satisfactory medium-run position. This past year we also published an interim policy brief (Cline and Williamson 2010b) in which we updated our calculations to the average exchange rates of October 2010, as well as commented on Brazilian Finance Minister Guido Mantega's description of international monetary events as constituting "currency wars." As in the previous year, however, the November 2010 policy brief updated our estimates only for intervening changes in market exchange rates. We did not make use of the IMF's revised autumn WEO forecasts to update our estimates of FEERs; on the contrary, we assumed the FEERs estimated in May 2010 were correct. In contrast, this policy brief presents totally new estimates of FEERs.
Topic:
Economics and Monetary Policy
Political Geography:
United States and China

149. Corporate Tax Reform for a New Century

Author:
Gary Clyde Hufbauer and Woan Foong Wong
Publication Date:
04-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
In his State of the Union address, President Barack Obama stressed four ingredients of American prosperity: faster innovation, better education, less deficit, and more jobs. As the president recognized in his address, the US free enterprise system drives the private sector to innovate, invest, and create jobs. This policy brief concentrates on how reforming the corporate tax system can strengthen the private sector, thereby spurring both innovation and job.
Topic:
Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Monetary Policy, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
United States

150. The role of multinationals in sparking industrialization: From "infant industry protection" to "FDI-led industrial take-off"

Author:
Terutomo Ozawa
Publication Date:
06-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:
Although not yet fully conceptualized as a new catch-up model in mainstream development economics, the infant industry argument (protectionism designed to replace imports with domestic substitutes) is giving way to a foreign direct investment (FDI)-led model of industrialization.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Industrial Policy, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, and China

151. The coming harmonization of climate change policy and international investment law

Author:
Daniel M. Firger
Publication Date:
05-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:
Developments in climate change policy and international investment law may be ushering in a new era characterized by profound harmonization between the two regimes. Although policy instruments such as the Kyoto Protocol's “Clean Development Mechanism” (CDM) have been in existence for years, it is only relatively recently that the international community has turned to low-carbon foreign direct investment (FDI) and away from command-and-control regulation as the preferred means by which to achieve future greenhouse gas emissions reductions. Meanwhile, states have begun to renegotiate international investment agreements (IIAs) or sign new treaties to take into account policy goals, including climate change mitigation, that extend beyond the regime's traditional preoccupation with investor protection. Though still somewhat tentative, emerging trends in both arenas are thus showing unmistakable signs of convergence.
Topic:
Climate Change, Economics, Industrial Policy, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:
United States and China

152. Is the party-appointed arbitrator a "pernicious institution"? A reply to Professor Hans Smit

Author:
Giorgio Sacerdoti
Publication Date:
04-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:
Some readers of the Columbia FDI Perspective No. 33 of December 14, 2010 may have been surprised to read Hans Smit's contribution against party-appointed arbitrators. The opening of his Perspective could not be expressed in more sweeping terms: "In my judgment, party-appointed arbitrators should be banned unless their role as advocates for the party that appointed them is fully disclosed and accepted. Until this is done, arbitration can never meet its aspiration of providing dispassionate adjudication..."
Topic:
Economics, Human Rights, Foreign Direct Investment, and Law
Political Geography:
United States

153. The world economic crisis as a changed circumstance

Author:
Hermann Ferré and Kabir Duggal
Publication Date:
08-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:
In September 2008, the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers sent financial markets in the United States into a spin. Credit markets froze as banks began to mistrust counterparties, not knowing the extent of toxic assets in loan portfolios that could lead to another major bank collapse. The crisis quickly spread around the world. Governments were urged to take drastic measures. Experts discussed the possible nationalization of portions of the U.S. banking industry and other sectors. Other countries also considered measures to save key industries.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
United States

154. From the FDI Triad to multiple FDI poles?

Author:
Karl P. Sauvant and Persephone Economou
Publication Date:
07-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:
Twenty years ago, in the inaugural issue of the World Investment Report, the United Nations highlighted a shift in the global pattern of foreign direct investment (FDI) from bipolar, dominated by the United States and the European Community, to tri-polar (the FDI Triad), dominated by the European Community, the United States and Japan.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, United Nations, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, and Europe

155. U.S. European Command and NATO'S Strategic Concept: Post-Afghanistan and Beyond

Author:
Harlan Ullman
Publication Date:
07-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
Regardless of how the conflict in Afghanistan (along with NATO's role, presence, and draw down) is resolved, one consequence will be to increase the importance of U.S. European Command (EUCOM) both in Europe and for the entire transatlantic community. Whether Operation Enduring Freedom and International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) produce a stunning victory in which Afghanistan emerges as a stable state under the rule of law with a viable government or a rocky withdrawal in the midst of continuing violence with no clear solution in sight, NATO nations will have long tired of that war. Fortunately, the Lisbon Summit with a 2014 end date has eased domestic political pressures over Afghanistan. However, that relief is by no means permanent.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Economics, International Cooperation, Military Strategy, and Reform
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United States, and Europe

156. Iran Sanctions: Preferable to War but No Silver Bullet

Author:
Barbara Slavin
Publication Date:
06-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
The broadest and toughest sanctions regime imposed on any country except Libya has not convinced Iran's leaders to abandon a program that appears aimed at developing nuclear weapons. Instead of seeking even more crippling economic penalties—such as an oil embargo—that would fracture the international consensus on Iran, the United States should tighten implementation of measures already in force and enact more sanctions linked to human rights, which have a wide constituency in Europe and demonstrate to the Iranian people that international concerns extend beyond nuclear weapons. The U.S. should also work with its diplomatic partners to craft new proposals that would couple acceptance of limited uranium enrichment with rigorous international monitoring, and encourage China, Iran's major trading partner, to use its leverage in support of nonproliferation.
Topic:
Economics, Human Rights, Nuclear Weapons, Sanctions, and Nuclear Power
Political Geography:
United States, China, and Iran

157. US Lessons for the Eurozone: Restoring Confidence through Transparency

Author:
Julie Chon
Publication Date:
12-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
When it comes to resolving financial crises, size matters, but so does transparency. In both the US and European crises, the drive for size—firing off enough public funds to plug the hole in the financial system—has proven to be self-defeating as markets raise ever higher, unrealistic, and inappropriate expectations for government policy. This strategy addresses some of the economics and none of the politics of crisis management. The race to meet the size test distracts policymakers from addressing the real impediment to restoring investor and public confidence: the inherent uncertainty and lack of transparency associated with extraordinary government actions in times of crisis. The absence of transparent decision-making inflicts a costly blow to the credibility of policymakers because markets and citizens cannot see or believe what leaders are doing to stabilize the financial system.
Topic:
Debt, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
United States and Europe

158. Social Security: The House that Roosevelt Built

Author:
Pamela J. Perun and Patricia E. Dilley
Publication Date:
07-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Aspen Institute
Abstract:
Critics of the Social Security program are fond of disparaging it as a "Ponzi" scheme or as a redistributive transfer of income from the young to the old. Others go even further, labeling the Social Security trust fund as a fiction or claiming the program is bankrupt. Some also suggest that the government bonds held in the trust fund are mere IOUs. Still others say that the program's legal basis is ephemeral, subject to the whims of Congress.
Topic:
Demographics, Economics, and Government
Political Geography:
United States

159. Fannie, Freddie, and the Subprime Mortgage Market

Author:
Mark A. Calabria
Publication Date:
03-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
The recent financial crisis was characterized by losses in nearly every type of investment vehicle. Yet no product has attracted as much attention as the subprime mortgage.
Topic:
Economics, Government, Markets, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
United States

160. The Future of Pakistan

Author:
Stephanie Flamenbaum, Megan Neville, and Constantino Xavier
Publication Date:
03-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Growing economic and political instability, rising support for extremism and increasing tensions in Pakistan's relationship with the United States currently threaten the country's prospects for a stable future.
Topic:
Political Violence and Economics
Political Geography:
Pakistan, United States, and South Asia

161. U.S. BITs and financial stability

Author:
Kevin P. Gallagher
Publication Date:
02-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:
Almost immediately after taking office, the Obama administration charged the U.S. Department of State's Advisory Committee on International Economic Policy with reviewing the U.S. Model bilateral investment treaty (BIT). The group established a sub-committee of business groups, labor and environmental organizations, and a handful of academic experts and tasked it to make official recommendations for reforming U.S. investment treaties. When completed, the Obama Administration hopes to proceed with official negotiations with China, India, Vietnam, and possibly Brazil.
Topic:
Economics, Globalization, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
United States, China, India, Brazil, and Vietnam

162. President Obama's International Tax Proposals Could Go Further

Author:
Reuven S. Avi-Yonah
Publication Date:
02-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:
The Obama Administration's 2011 budget proposals include revenues of $122 billion over ten years from “international tax reform.” This set of proposals is similar to but narrower than the ones advanced by the Administration in May 2009, which would have raised $210 billion.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
United States

163. The Impact of the Crisis on the Real Economy

Author:
Daniel Gros and Cinzia Alcidi
Publication Date:
01-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
This crisis was caused by a combination of asset price bubbles, mainly in the real estate sector, and a credit bubble that led to excessive leverage. This is wellknown. What is less well-known is that on both accounts the euro area was affected by both 'bubble' symptoms as much as the US.
Topic:
Economics, Markets, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
United States and Europe

164. Comparing EU and US Responses to the Financial Crisis

Author:
Karel Lannoo
Publication Date:
01-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
Since 2003, the EU and the US have conducted a vibrant regulatory dialogue on financial regulation, but domestic priorities seem to have taken precedence in response to the financial crisis. This paper compares the institutional and regulatory changes occurring on both sides of the Atlantic. On the institutional side, it compares macro- and micro-prudential reforms. On the regulatory side, it compares four key areas: bank capital requirements, reform of the OTC derivative markets, and the regulation of credit ratings agencies and hedge funds. It concludes by highlighting certain implications for the regulatory dialogue.
Topic:
Economics, Monetary Policy, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
United States and Europe

165. The Sustainability of China's Recovery from the Global Recession

Author:
Nicholas R. Lardy
Publication Date:
03-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
China's policy response to the global financial and economic crisis was early, large, and well-designed. Although Chinese financial institutions had little exposure to the toxic financial assets that brought down many large Western investment banks and other financial firms, China's leadership recognized that its dependence on exports meant that it was acutely vulnerable to a global recession. Thus they did not subscribe to the view sometimes described as “decoupling,” the idea that Asian countries could passively weather the financial storm that originated in the United States and other advanced industrial economies. They understood that absent a vigorous policy response China inevitably would suffer from the backwash of a sharp economic slowdown in its largest export markets—the United States and Europe.
Topic:
Economics and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
United States, China, Europe, and Asia

166. The Substitution Account as a First Step Toward Reform of the International Monetary System

Author:
Peter B. Kenen
Publication Date:
03-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
Today, the international monetary system is based largely on the US dollar, but reserve currency diversification has begun, thanks to the advent of the euro, and it is apt to continue. Eventually, the renminbi could acquire reserve currency status, and the resulting reserve currency diversification could be more disruptive than it has been to date. To forestall that possibility the quasi-currency issued by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Special Drawing Rights (SDRs), could be made to play a larger role in the international monetary system, precluding potentially disruptive diversification and achieving more orderly growth in the stock of international reserves.
Topic:
Economics, International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance, and Monetary Policy
Political Geography:
United States

167. The Case for Auditing the Fed Is Obvious

Author:
Arnold Kling
Publication Date:
04-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
Recently, the Federal Reserve has significantly altered the procedures and goals that it had followed for decades. It has more than doubled its balance sheet, paid interest to banks on reserves held as deposits with the Fed, made decisions about which institutions to prop up and which should be allowed to fail, invested in assets that expose taxpayers to large losses, and raised questions about how it will avoid inflation despite an unprecedented increase in the monetary base.
Topic:
Economics, Government, Political Economy, Politics, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
United States

168. Economic Growth and Institutional Innovation: Outlines of a Reform Agenda

Author:
William A. Galston
Publication Date:
06-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
When experts and pundits are asked what the president and Congress should do to promote economic growth, they typically respond with a list of policies, often mixed with stylistic and political suggestions. Few focus on institutional change, which is too easy to conflate with yawn-inducing “governmental reorganization.”
Topic:
Economics and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
United States

169. Spurring Innovation Through Education: Four Ideas

Author:
Grover J. (Russ) Whitehurst
Publication Date:
06-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
A nation's education system is a pillar of its economic strength and international competitiveness. The National Bureau of Economic Research analyzed data from 146 countries, collected between 1950 and 2010, and found that each year of additional average schooling attained by a population translates into at least a two percent increase in economic output. A 2007 World Bank policy research working paper reported similar results. Based on these findings, if the United States increased the average years of schooling completed by its adult population from the current 12 years to 13 years—that is, added one year of postsecondary education—our gross domestic product would rise by more than $280 billion.
Topic:
Economics and Education
Political Geography:
United States

170. The Future of Small Business Entrepreneurship: Jobs Generator for the U.S. Economy

Author:
Martin Neil Baily, Karen Dynan, and Douglas J. Elliott
Publication Date:
06-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
As the nation strives to recover from the “Great Recession,” job creation remains one of the biggest challenges to renewed prosperity. Small businesses have been among the most powerful generators of new jobs historically, suggesting the value of a stronger focus on supporting small businesses— especially high-growth firms—and encouraging entrepreneurship. Choosing the right policies will require public and private decision-makers to establish clear goals, such as increasing employment, raising the overall return on investment, and generating innovations with broader benefits for society. Good mechanisms will also be needed for gauging their progress and ultimate success. This brief examines policy recommendations to strengthen the small business sector and provide a platform for effective programs. These recommendations draw heavily from ideas discussed at a conference held at the Brookings Institution with academic experts, successful private-sector entrepreneurs, and government policymakers, including leaders from the Small Business Administration. The gathering was intended to spur the development of creative solutions in the private and public sectors to foster lasting economic growth.
Topic:
Economics and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
United States

171. Revisiting the NAFTA Agenda on Climate Change

Author:
Jeffrey J. Schott and Meera Fickling
Publication Date:
07-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
A year ago, we wrote a policy brief titled Setting the NAFTA Agenda on Climate Change, which explored issues of energy and environmental cooperation among the three North American countries in light of the climate legislation that had recently passed the US House of Representatives. Similar legislation did not pass the Senate, and Congressional leaders are now considering much more modest measures aimed at reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and reforming US energy policy.
Topic:
Climate Change, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
United States and North America

172. The Big U-Turn: Japan Threatens to Reverse Postal Reforms

Author:
Gary Clyde Hufbauer and Julia Muir
Publication Date:
06-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
On May 31, 2010 a majority of the Lower House of the National Diet of Japan approved legislation that would reverse a decade's worth of effort to fully privatize key subsidiaries of Japan Post Holdings Co. Ltd. Besides postal services, the state-run postal system offers banking and insurance services, through Japan Post Bank (JPB) and Japan Post Insurance (JPI), respectively. These are the financial engines of Japan Post and were the units slated for privatization. Both subsidiaries have long received favorable government treatment, tilting the playing field against private banks and insurance firms, whether foreign or domestic. The government of Japan is in clear violation of its commitments under the World Trade Organization (WTO), and if the Upper House approves the legislation, Japan will reverse the efforts made by the United States and the European Union, as well as domestic private banks and insurance firms, to establish a level playing field. What's more, Japan risks having a formal WTO dispute brought against it.
Topic:
Economics, Government, and Privatization
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, and Europe

173. Deepening China-Taiwan Relations through the Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement

Author:
Daniel H. Rosen
Publication Date:
06-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
On Sunday, June 13, 2010 representatives from China and Taiwan held a third round of talks in Beijing on an Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA) that would liberalize important aspects of cross-Strait economic relations. Details of what was agreed and what remains under negotiation are still trickling out, and in any case the nature of this framework is that various elements will be agreed upon on an ongoing basis rather than at once. But it is clear from available details that ECFA will be an ambitious accord that fundamentally changes the game between Taiwan and China and hence affects the regional economy and even the transpacific tempo for the United States.
Topic:
Economics, International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, Treaties and Agreements, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
United States, China, and Taiwan

174. Hobbling Exports and Destroying Jobs

Author:
Gary Clyde Hufbauer and Theodore H. Moran
Publication Date:
06-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
The US House of Representatives has just passed the American Jobs and Closing Tax Loopholes Act (HR 4213). This bill will hurt American workers, reduce American exports, and make American companies less competitive in the international marketplace. Since the US Senate has already passed companion legislation, the American Workers, State, and Business Relief Act (S 3336), these ill-considered bills could soon be reconciled in conference and become the law of the land. If so, American firms and workers will pay the price.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Labor Issues
Political Geography:
United States and America

175. Higher Taxes on Multinationals Would Hurt US Workers and Exports

Author:
Gary Clyde Hufbauer and Theodore H. Moran
Publication Date:
05-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
As presidential candidate, Barack Obama repeatedly advocated tax “reforms” aimed squarely at US-based multinational enterprises (MNEs). As president, he again declared—in the same State of the Union address that laid out an ambitious goal for export expansion—that “it is time to finally slash the tax breaks for companies that ship our jobs overseas, and give those tax breaks to companies that create jobs right here in the United States of America."
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Monetary Policy
Political Geography:
United States

176. Protection by Stealth: Using the Tax Law to Discriminate against Foreign Insurance Companies

Author:
Gary Clyde Hufbauer
Publication Date:
04-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
These are difficult times. Not only are 10 percent of Americans unemployed but the federal budget is out of whack thanks to the specter of rising entitlement outlays. A natural impulse in difficult times is to protect domestic products and domestic producers. The tone of political economy during the global recession of 2007–09 is no different from that in past recessions—but louder because the economic damage is more severe. Emblematic of this spirit is a proposal to discriminate against foreign-owned insurance companies, using the tax code.
Topic:
Economics, Labor Issues, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
United States

177. China's Defense Electronics Industry: Innovation, Adaptation, and Espionage

Author:
James Mulvenon and Matthew Luce
Publication Date:
09-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
University of California Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation (IGCC)
Abstract:
Contrary to popular perceptions of China as either "technology thief" or "technology superpower," the success of the Chinese defense electronics sector can be attributed to a combination of indigenous innovation, adaptation of foreign technology, and large-scale technology espionage. Advanced defense electronics components and systems play a key role in this revolution in military capability, making it imperative to understand the strengths and weaknesses of the Chinese defense electronics industry and their implications for U.S. interests in the region.
Topic:
Economics, Science and Technology, and Military Strategy
Political Geography:
United States, China, and Asia

178. An Update on EU Financial Reforms

Author:
Nicolas Véron
Publication Date:
12-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
In the context of a transatlantic comparison, the first thing to be mentioned is the difference between the time sequence of financial reforms in the European Union and its equivalent in the United States. The financial crisis started simultaneously on both sides of the Atlantic, with the initial disruption of some financial market segments in August 2007 and the major panic episode of September through October 2008. But they are not at the same stage of policy reaction and especially regulatory reform now. At least four reasons can be identified for this difference.
Topic:
Economics, Global Recession, Monetary Policy, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
United States and Europe

179. NATO Initiatives for an Era of Global Competition

Author:
Franklin D. Kramer
Publication Date:
03-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
The transatlantic partnership has historically been at the heart of U.S. foreign policy, and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization has been at the heart of the partnership. But the factors that long made "transatlantic" the dominant foreign policy construct have fundamentally changed – and with it has come a need for concomitant strategic and operational changes to meet new requirements.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Economics, International Cooperation, and Reform
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United States, Europe, and North America

180. Central Europe and the Geopolitics of Energy

Author:
Franklin D. Kramer, John R. Lyman, and Mihaela Carstei
Publication Date:
12-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
Energy security presents quintessential geopolitical challenges. In Central Europe, achieving energy security can be a critical element for a continent seeking to resolve vestigial Cold War complexities with Russia and toward meeting 21st century challenges including balanced economic development, energy diversity and climate change. Central Europe, utilizing both European Union support and Western European national assistance and enhanced by United States technical assistance, can take five key steps that will go far toward resolving energy security challenges and help to reframe the geopolitics of the continent.
Topic:
Security, Economics, Energy Policy, Oil, and Natural Resources
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, and Europe

181. Renminbi Undervaluation, China's Surplus, and the US Trade Deficit

Author:
William R. Cline
Publication Date:
08-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
On June 21, 2010, in the run-up to the G-20 meeting in Toronto, China announced that it would shift to a more flexible exchange rate policy. From mid-June to July 30 the yuan rose 0.8 percent against the dollar. In contrast, the currency had remained fixed (at about 6.83 yuan to the dollar) from September 2008 to early June 2010. Pressure not only from the United States and the European Union but also from Russia, Brazil, and India as well as the IMF seems likely to have played a role in China's decision, although concerns about domestic inflation may also have been a factor.
Topic:
Economics and Monetary Policy
Political Geography:
United States and China

182. FDI incentives pay — politically

Author:
Nathan M. Jensen and Edmund J. Malesky
Publication Date:
06-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:
Despite broad skepticism about the benefits of globalization, the majority of U.S. states have offered lucrative tax incentives to attract investment. The size of these incentives is generally considered too large to be welfare enhancing, and many economists are skeptical of the effectiveness of these policies. Yet despite the mounting evidence to the contrary, the incentives offered by U.S. states (and foreign countries) continue and have actually increased in their generosity over time.
Topic:
Economics, Political Economy, Politics, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:
United States

183. Foreign direct investment and U.S. national security: CFIUS under the Obama Administration

Author:
Mark E. Plotkin and David N. Fagan
Publication Date:
06-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:
There was considerable public scrutiny of the Obama Administration's performance in its inaugural year, but comparatively little focus on one of the Administration's key processes governing the flow of investment into the United States — namely, the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS). Yet, this is a frequent question we receive from foreign investors -- has the change in the administration affected CFIUS?
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Monetary Policy, Foreign Direct Investment, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
United States

184. Pakistan\'s Roller-Coaster Economy: Tax Evasion Stifles Growth

Author:
S. Akbar Zaidi
Publication Date:
09-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Over the last sixty years, Pakistan\'s economy has seen severe ups and downs. Once considered a model for other developing nations, Pakistan has been unable to sustain solid growth. Furthermore, a third of its population now lives below the poverty line, and its literacy rate is abysmally low. Pakistan\'s economic instability stems in large part from low government revenue resulting from the elite\'s use of tax evasions, loopholes, and exemptions. Fewer than three million of Pakistan\'s 175 million citizens pay any income taxes, and the country\'s tax-to-GDP ratio is only 9 percent. Tax evasion means fewer resources are available for essential social services. Pakistan spends too much on defense and too little on development: It has spent twice as much on defense during peacetime as it has on education and health combined. The government knows how to increase its revenue through tax reform, but the rich and powerful have resisted such measures for fear of lowering their own incomes. Without sufficient revenue the government will continue to be burdened with an unsustainable debt. It needs to end tax exemptions for the wealthy and develop broader, long-term economic plans for sustain able growth. In the past, the United States and other Western nations have come to Pakistan\'s rescue by paying off debts and funding development initiatives. Pakistan\'s elite has no reason to support reform as long as these bailouts come with no conditions attached.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and Monetary Policy
Political Geography:
Pakistan and United States

185. Five Surprises of the Great Recession

Author:
Uri Dadush and Vera Eidelman
Publication Date:
11-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The Great Recession included five major surprises: (1) the severity of the global trade and output collapse, (2) the United States suffered a milder than expected recession, (3) Europe saw the onset of a severe sovereign debt crisis, (4) China grew at an extraordinary rate even though it's greatly dependent on exports, and (5) Latin America showed remarkable resilience.
Topic:
Economics, Globalization, Global Recession, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
United States, China, Europe, and Latin America

186. A Bright Future for International Law?

Author:
Steven Haines
Publication Date:
06-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
During the period of the Bush presidency, from 2001-2009, there was much concern expressed, both domestically within the United States and internationally, about Washington's apparently cavalier attitude towards international law. 1 Much of this – though by no means all – was prompted by the US reaction to the 2001 attacks on New York and Washington (the so-called 'global war on terrorism'), and the decision in 2002/3 to opt for regime change in Iraq. For many commentators it seemed as though US policy in that period provided solid evidence that law within the international system was of little influence in the face of determined power. This perception reflects realist assumptions about the pre-eminence of national interest and power as determinants of policy. Of particular moment is the power of those states that fall within the category of 'great power' – and 'superpower' has a special quality all its own.
Topic:
Economics, International Law, International Affairs, and Power Politics
Political Geography:
United States

187. Iran's Youth, The Unintended Victims of Sanctions

Author:
Djavad Salehi-Isfahani
Publication Date:
08-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
The effect of the international sanctions on Iran is to deepen its current economic recession and make recovery very difficult if not impossible. In doing so, it will inflict pain on the general population. By prolonging the recession, the sanctions will hurt Iran's youth (15-29 year olds) particularly harshly, as they will bear the brunt of the resulting unemployment. They account for 70 percent of unemployment, and any improvement in their condition depends on economic recovery.
Topic:
Economics and Sanctions
Political Geography:
United States and Iran

188. Can the U.S. Remain an Attractive Host for FDI in the Auto Industry? New Labor Policy and Flexible Production

Author:
Terutomo Ozawa
Publication Date:
10-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:
President Obama has been supporting a new bill, the Employee Free Choice Act, designed to promote the labor unions' drive for unionization. This bill, if enacted, will surely be a big boon for unions as it helps enlarge their membership, enhance their bargaining power vis-à-vis businesses, and enrich their coffers to wield political clout. An important issue here, however, is how such reinforced unionism contributes to the U.S.'s much needed industrial competitiveness and employment—and, more specifically, how this new policy will affect the U.S. as a host to FDI in the auto industry.
Topic:
Economics, Industrial Policy, International Trade and Finance, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:
United States

189. The global economic crisis and FDI flows to emerging markets: for the first time ever, emerging markets are this year set to attract more than half of global FDI flows

Author:
Laza Kekic
Publication Date:
10-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:
The global economic and financial crisis has had a major impact on foreign direct investment (FDI) flows. After declining in 2008 by 17% to US$1.73trn from US$2.09trn in 2007—the high point of a four- year long boom in cross-border mergers and acquisitions (M) and FDI—global FDI inflows are forecast to plunge by 44% to less than US$1trn in 2009. The big drop in 2009 is occurring despite the improvements in the global economy in recent months. A notable feature of trends in 2009 is that, for the first time ever, emerging markets are set to attract more FDI inflows than the developed world.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Foreign Direct Investment, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
United States

190. International Investment Arbitration: Winning, Losing and Why

Author:
Susan D. Franck
Publication Date:
06-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:
We know several things about foreign investment. First, foreign investment matters, reaching US$1.7 trillion in 2008. Second, we know that foreign investors have new international law rights to protect their economic interests. Third, we know that those rights are now being used.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:
United States

191. The global financial crisis: will state emergency measures trigger international investment disputes?

Author:
Anne Van Aaken and Jürgen Kurtz
Publication Date:
03-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:
Several developed countries have introduced emergency measures to mitigate the effects of the Global Financial Crisis, including Australia, Germany, Ireland, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Although the measures taken are still undergoing changes by the executive branch and are thus a “moving target”, our survey reveals early evidence of differentiation between foreign and domestic actors in the emergency plans adopted by this sample grouping. It is this differentiation that may give rise to liability as breaching guarantees against discrimination of foreign investors under international investment law.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, International Affairs, Foreign Direct Investment, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
United States, United Kingdom, Germany, Australia, and Ireland

192. The revised national security review process for FDI in the US

Author:
Mark E. Plotkin and David N. Fagan
Publication Date:
01-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:
On December 22, 2008, new regulations setting forth the U.S. government's national security review process for foreign mergers and acquisitions of U.S. businesses became effective. They are the ultimate step in a lengthy effort to revise and strengthen the reviews undertaken by the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (“CFIUS”).
Topic:
Economics, National Security, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:
United States

193. The Economic Impact of International Students from a Cross-National Perspective

Author:
Robert Gutierrez, Patricia Chow, Jason Baumgartner, and Yuriko Sato
Publication Date:
05-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Institute of International Education (IIE)
Abstract:
IIE Open Doors Data on U.S. International Educational Exchange. Project Atlas: Global Student Mobility. International Student Economic Impact in the U.S. Comparison of International Student Economic Impact in USA, Japan and Australia.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Economics, Markets, and Migration
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, China, Asia, California, Australia, and Texas

194. A Solution for Europe's Banking Problem

Author:
Adam S. Posen and Nicolas Véron
Publication Date:
06-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
Since mid-2007, public authorities in the European Union have broadly met the challenge of ensuring a functional degree of liquidity and preventing financial meltdown. The Eurosystem has even been ahead of the curve compared with the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England in discounting early on a wide variety of assets to a range of counterparties. However, despite unprecedented central bank intervention, extensive government guarantees since October 2008, and macroeconomic assistance (with the International Monetary Fund) to the European Union's weakest member states, the underlying state of continental Europe's banking industry remains very fragile.
Topic:
Economics, Markets, and Monetary Policy
Political Geography:
United States, United Kingdom, and Europe

195. Understanding Special Drawing Rights

Author:
John Williamson
Publication Date:
06-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
A once-familiar but long-neglected acronym has reappeared in newspapers in recent weeks. We have read that the G-20 meeting in London endorsed a proposal that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) should create $250 billion in Special Drawing Rights (SDRs). We have been told that one problem with this proposal is that most of the SDR allocation would accrue to countries that are unlikely to use them, and some readers may have seen proposed ways around this difficulty. We have read that the governor of the People's Bank of China, Zhou Xiaochuan, has proposed that the SDR should gradually displace the dollar at the center of the international monetary system and that surplus countries should be able to convert their dollar holdings into SDR-denominated assets. No one can doubt that the SDR is back.
Topic:
Economics, International Cooperation, International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance, and Monetary Policy
Political Geography:
United States and China

196. How Do We Know This is Not Another Great Depression? Lessons for Policymakers from the 1930s

Author:
Jeffrey Frankel
Publication Date:
07-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
The current economic crisis is fundamentally different from those we have experienced in recent past. The proximate causes of previous recessions (1980-2 and 1990-91) were increases in interest rates in response to inflation. This time around, however, low interest rates and loose monetary policy during the period 2003-2005 had contributed to a bubble in asset prices, rather than to inflation. This-coupled with an underestimation of risk in our financial system, failures of corporate governance, and excessive debt by both households and government-caused the crisis of 2007-09.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Monetary Policy, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, and Germany

197. The Future of the Dollar

Author:
Richard N. Cooper
Publication Date:
09-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
The US dollar is not the world's key currency by policy design, just as English is not the leading global language by policy design. It is the evolutionary outcome of practice and experience. It would take both a major shock to the dollar and a viable alternative to dislodge it from widespread use. Like a common language, the dollar enjoys “network externalities”— the greater the number of people who use and accept it, the more useful it is to everyone, and the more entrenched it becomes. Also, what is not quite the same thing, the dollar enjoys a large market in low-risk and highly liquid securities, most notably US Treasury bills; the liquidity both enhances and is enhanced by the network externalities. Most of the world's foreign exchange transactions directly involve the US dollar. It is easy to hold and easy to use, even on a large scale. In short, it is highly convenient.
Topic:
Economics, Foreign Exchange, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States

198. Why SDRs Could Rival the Dollar

Author:
John Williamson
Publication Date:
09-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
In a recent Cato Institute paper, Swaminathan S. Anklesaria Aiyar (2009) asserts that the International Monetary Fund's special drawing rights (SDRs) cannot rival the US dollar, as suggested by the Chinese central bank governor (Zhou Xiaochuan 2009). “The SDR is not a currency and never can be,” Swami declares confidently in the first paragraph of his paper. He presents two arguments, which are presumably supposed to be proofs of this proposition.
Topic:
Economics, Foreign Exchange, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States

199. The 2008 Oil Price "Bubble"

Author:
Mohsin S. Khan
Publication Date:
08-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
As oil prices began to rise in 2009 from a low point of about $40 a barrel in January to around $70 a barrel in July, a key question is whether the world is in for another oil price spike in the near term similar to that witnessed in early 2008. Several hypotheses were advanced when world oil prices started their inexorable climb from 2003–04 onwards, then skyrocketed from $92 a barrel in January 2008 to cross the $140 a barrel mark in June, finally hitting a record high of $147 a barrel on July 11, 2008, before collapsing to less than $40 a barrel in December (figure 1). There was the “peak oil” explanation, based on the theories of M. King Hubbert of “Hubbert's Peak” fame and his supporters, notably Colin Campbell and Matthew Simmons, that the world was running out of oil. There were the market “fundamentalists,” including importantly John Lipsky, the first deputy managing director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), and Philip Verleger, a well-known oil expert, who argued that the fundamentals of demand and supply were primarily behind the extraordinary rise in oil prices in the first half of 2008 (Lipsky 2009a, 2009b; Verleger 2005, 2008). Interestingly, this fundamentals view was also shared by the US Treasury and was articulated by David McCormick, then undersecretary for international affairs, in a presentation in July 2008 at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. Finally, there were those who maintained that such an increase could only be a “bubble,” unexplained by peak oil theory or market fundamentals. Many financial-market participants were proponents of this third view, notably Michael Masters (2008), as well as the main oil producers, who were as surprised as anyone at the speed and size of the price increase over only a few months. Their argument was that the phenomenal increase in financialization of commodity markets during 2006–08, including in particular the oil market, led to speculation and momentum trading, which pushed oil prices way beyond their long-term equilibrium level as determined by fundamentals.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Oil
Political Geography:
United States

200. The Global Economic Crisis after One Year: Is a New Paradigm for Recovery in Developing Countries Emerging?

Author:
Wim Naudé
Publication Date:
08-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
T HE ECONOMIC DOWNTURN AND RECESSION, WHICH spread across the globe following the US sub-prime mortgage crisis in September 2008, has become the dominant news topic of the past year. One year into the crisis it has become clear that the paradigm for international development has changed irrevocably. With leadership, moral authority and the capacity of the West diminishing, developing countries' recovery and future growth will critically depend on their own initiatives and solutions.
Topic:
Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
United States