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You searched for: Content Type Policy Brief Remove constraint Content Type: Policy Brief Publishing Institution The Conference Board Remove constraint Publishing Institution: The Conference Board Political Geography United States Remove constraint Political Geography: United States Topic Economics Remove constraint Topic: Economics
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  • Publication Date: 05-2003
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: The Conference Board
  • Abstract: The Conference Board announced today that the U.S. leading index increased 1.0 percent, the coincident index increased 0.1 percent, and the lagging index decreased 0.1 percent in May.The leading index increased sharply in May following a slight gain in April. This increase was largely due to stock prices, real money supply, and consumer expectations, but most other components also increased slightly. It is possible that these two consecutive increases reflect the beginning of an upward trend, thereby ending the flat trend that began in early 2002.The strength in the leading indicators has become more widespread as shown by a pick-up in the diffusion indexes, which measure the proportion of the components that are rising. The one- and six-month diffusion indexes are now at or above fifty percent, up from lower levels earlier in the year. The coincident index, a measure of current economic conditions, increased modestly in May after holding steady in the previous two months. The coincident index remained essentially flat in the second quarter, but is likely to increase in the second half of the year reflecting the recent gains in the leading index.
  • Topic: Economics, Political Economy
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Publication Date: 04-2003
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: The Conference Board
  • Abstract: The Conference Board announced today that the U.S. leading index increased 0.1 percent, the coincident index decreased 0.1 percent, and the lagging index decreased 0.5 percent in April.After declining in February and March, the leading index increased slightly in April. Since early 2002, the leading index has been fluctuating around a flat trend. This is consistent with real GDP growth continuing to fluctuate around a 2% to 2.5% average annual rate.Despite rebounding financial indicators and consumer expectations, there is still weakness in the labor market and manufacturing indicators. Weakness in these components reflects the recent declines in manufacturing capacity utilization.The coincident index, a measure of current economic conditions, decreased in April after holding steady in March. The slight decline in the coincident indicators in April is consistent with the weakness in the leading index in the first quarter of 2003.
  • Topic: Economics, Political Economy
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Publication Date: 03-2003
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: The Conference Board
  • Abstract: The Conference Board announced today that the U.S. leading index decreased 0.2 percent, the coincident index held steady, and the lagging index decreased 0.1 percent in March.The leading index declined for a second consecutive month in March, but the information available so far in April suggests that these declines will not continue. The leading index has been fluctuating around a flat trend since December 2001.The flatness in the leading index suggests that U.S. real GDP growth will stay in the 2-3% range for now. As long as economic growth is constrained in this range, the labor market cannot improve.The coincident index has been essentially flat in recent months with gains in income and sales offset by weakness in employment and industrial production. With economic growth at or slightly below potential, the coincident index is unlikely to grow strongly.
  • Topic: Economics, Political Economy
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Publication Date: 02-2003
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: The Conference Board
  • Abstract: The Conference Board announced today that the U.S. leading index decreased 0.4 percent, the coincident index held steady, and the lagging index decreased 0.1 percent in February.The leading index fell in February for the first time since September 2002. Uncertainty over war in Iraq, as well as severe winter weather in February, is reflected in the widespread weakness, particularly in stock prices, consumer expectations, and the labor market. Some of these weaknesses have persisted through March.More generally, the leading index has been fluctuating around a flat trend over the past 15 months with a balance between rising and falling components. The index fell in the third quarter of 2002, rose in the fourth quarter, and is now declining again in the first quarter.After flattening in the fourth quarter of last year, the coincident index, a measure of current economic activity, increased 0.2 in January and held that level in February (with a decline in employment offsetting the gains in income, production, and sales). At this point, the leading index is suggesting that economic growth may be on the sluggish side in the second quarter.
  • Topic: Economics, Political Economy
  • Political Geography: United States, Iraq
  • Publication Date: 01-2003
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: The Conference Board
  • Abstract: The Conference Board announced today that the U.S. leading index decreased 0.1 percent, the coincident index increased by 0.2 percent, and the lagging index decreased 0.1 percent in January.A sharp drop in claims for unemployment insurance offset the weak expectations of consumers in January. The leading index remains well above its peak prior to the 2001 recession and just below the previous high achieved in May 2002.The coincident index turned up again in January after pausing in the last quarter of 2002. This month's increase in the coincident index, the largest in six months, is consistent with the gains in the leading index late last year and reflects better current conditions in the beginning of this year.Barring any shock or prolonged uncertainty in the Middle East, the leading and coincident indexes point to a more robust pace of economic activity in the coming months.
  • Topic: Economics, Political Economy
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Publication Date: 12-2002
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: The Conference Board
  • Abstract: The Conference Board announced today that the U.S. leading index increased by 0.1 percent, the coincident index held steady, and the lagging index decreased 0.3 percent in December.After declining from May through September 2002, the leading index has now improved for three straight months, suggesting a stronger economic recovery in the first half of 2003.The negative contribution from unemployment insurance claims in December was more than offset by the positive contributions from housing permits, average manufacturing workweek, and consumer expectations. The leading index has almost regained its level in May 2002, or when it started to decline.The coincident index, a measure of current economic activity, was flat in each of the last three months of 2002. But it\'s still 0.8 percent above its cyclical low reached in November 2001.
  • Topic: Economics, Political Economy
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Publication Date: 11-2002
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: The Conference Board
  • Abstract: The Conference Board announced today that the U.S. leading index increased by 0.7 percent, the coincident index increased by 0.1 percent, and the lagging index decreased 0.2 percent in November.This month's gain in the leading index is the largest since December of last year. With this increase, the index has now recovered its losses since May 2002, and is nearly 3.6 percent above its most recent trough in March 2001.Strength in the financial sector - coupled with a rebound in consumer expectations and a decline in unemployment insurance claims - contributed to the increase in the leading index this month.The coincident index, a measure of current economic activity, increased modestly in November. Despite this increase, the coincident index remains essentially flat since July 2002, reflecting a sluggish recovery from the last recession.
  • Topic: Economics, Political Economy
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Publication Date: 10-2002
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: The Conference Board
  • Abstract: The Conference Board announced today that the U.S. leading, coincident and lagging indexes all held steady in October.Strong real money growth and lower unemployment claims in October offset weak consumer expectations and faster deliveries, as measured by vendor performance.The coincident index performance continues to suggest a recovering yet fragile economy. Industrial production has shed some of its gains from the first half of the year and nonagricultural employment has essentially remained unchanged. Moderate growth in personal income and manufacturing and trade sales continue to sustain economic growth.Although the leading index has been flat or declining over the past five months, it is only 0.2 percent below its level from April of this year.
  • Topic: Economics, Political Economy
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Publication Date: 09-2002
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: The Conference Board
  • Abstract: The Conference Board announced today that the U.S. leading index decreased 0.2 percent, the coincident index held steady, and the lagging index decreased 0.6 percent in September.The leading index declined for the fourth consecutive month in September. This weakness has been primarily fueled by weak equity markets, a narrowing interest rate spread, and deteriorating consumer expectations.The six-month diffusion index of the leading index, which measures the proportion of components that are rising in a six-month span, is at 50 percent. Over the past several months, this index has continued to deteriorate, which is an indication of spreading weakness among the leading components.The coincident index continues to show a weak economic recovery. Industrial production and nonagricultural payrolls showed mild weakness in September but were offset by modest gains in income and manufacturing and trade sales.
  • Topic: Economics, Political Economy
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Publication Date: 08-2002
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: The Conference Board
  • Abstract: The Conference Board announced today that the U.S. leading index decreased 0.2 percent, the coincident index increased 0.1 percent, and the lagging index decreased 0.1 percent in August.The leading index declined for the third month in a row in August. This was the first time in fifteen months that the six-month growth rate was negative.The weakness in the leading index was widespread, with a majority of the components showing declines.The coincident index continues to indicate a weak economic recovery. Industrial production declined for the first time this year and the other three components showed little improvement.
  • Topic: Economics, Political Economy
  • Political Geography: United States