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  • Author: Patrick O'Reilly
  • Publication Date: 01-2014
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Atlantic Council
  • Abstract: NATO leaders have cited missile defense as an example of applying the principles of the Smart Defense initiative endorsed at the 2012 NATO Summit to enhance collective defense at minimum cost. As ballistic missiles continue to proliferate and become more accessible to both state and nonstate actors, it is important to foster global partnerships to pursue NATO's missile defense mission and protect North American and European interests. NATO should consider opportunities to further apply the principles of Smart Defense now to reduce future costs of deterring and countering missile proliferation.
  • Topic: Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation
  • Political Geography: Europe, Middle East, Asia, North America
  • Author: Pinar Dost-Niyego, Orhan Taner
  • Publication Date: 04-2014
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Atlantic Council
  • Abstract: The recent events in Ukraine have revived the question of European dependence on Russian natural gas. The security of Europe's natural gas supply has been a consistently important issue in Russian-European Union (EU) relations. Russia provided 34 percent of EU gas in 2012, and Russian policies can have a direct impact on EU supplies. After the West-Russian confrontation over Ukraine, a lot has been said about the 'US shale gas revolution' and the possibilities of the United States becoming an energy exporter for future European energy needs. Although US energy independence seems to promise new perspectives for future European energy security, as well as for the balance of power in the Middle East, this is not for this decade. We cannot expect that the European Union would be able to cut off all of its energy relations with Russia, but we can foresee–or at least agree–that the European Union should diversify its natural gas supplies.
  • Topic: Security, Foreign Policy, Economics, Energy Policy
  • Political Geography: Russia, United States, Europe, Ukraine, Middle East, Asia
  • Author: Banning Garrett, Robert A. Manning
  • Publication Date: 03-2013
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Atlantic Council
  • Abstract: As China's National Party Congress gathered in early March to anoint Xi Jinping and the next generation of Chinese leaders, Beijing's behavior at home and abroad strongly suggested that, while they have strategic goals, they have no strategy for how to achieve them. Beijing seems unable to change course from following a development model it has outgrown and pursuing assertive, zero-sum foreign policies that are counter to its long-term interests.
  • Topic: International Relations, Foreign Policy, Corruption, Governance, Reform
  • Political Geography: China, Asia
  • Author: Henry M. Paulson
  • Publication Date: 07-2012
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Atlantic Council
  • Abstract: For nearly four decades, there has been a broad consensus among US policy and opinion leaders that China's success will, ultimately, be good for the United States. But this long-standing consensus is now fraying. We need a new consensus, based on an updated framework that reflects the reality that China is no longer a "developing" economy but an increasingly established one.
  • Topic: Development, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Bilateral Relations
  • Political Geography: Asia, North America
  • Author: Isabelle Francois
  • Publication Date: 12-2012
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Atlantic Council
  • Abstract: Conventional arms control in Europe remains relevant more than two decades after the singing of the Conventional Forces in Europe Treaty (CFE). Today, it could serve as a useful vehicle for collaboration with Russia on a broad range of security issues, and productive movement forward would also do much to reassure and secure smaller NATO allies and regional partners. Ultimately, what is needed is a paradigm shift away from "mutual assured destruction" and towards a concept of "mutual assured stability."
  • Topic: NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, International Security
  • Political Geography: Russia, Europe, Asia
  • Author: Barbara Slavin
  • Publication Date: 09-2011
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Atlantic Council
  • Abstract: Sanctions and China's growing economic clout have altered Iran's trading patterns in ways that are reducing Iran's access to hard currency but may also be insulating the Iranian government and political elite from further US unilateral pressures.
  • Topic: Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, Bilateral Relations, Sanctions, Nuclear Power
  • Political Geography: China, Iran, Middle East, Asia
  • Author: Boyko Noev, Harlan Ullman
  • Publication Date: 04-2010
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Atlantic Council
  • Abstract: NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen is overseeing the drafting of NATO's latest Strategic Concept, set to replace the current version approved in 1999. Even though only a decade has passed, changes across the globe have been stunning and in some cases revolutionary. For NATO, we believe the challenge of the Strategic Concept is to address the question of whether NATO is still relevant or whether it has become a relic. We strongly believe the former. However, that can no longer be taken for granted. Twenty years after the Soviet Union imploded, the Alliance must finally find a new strategic anchor for its raison d'être or deal with the implications of becoming a relic or an Alliance that may have served its purpose.
  • Topic: Foreign Policy, NATO, Terrorism
  • Political Geography: Asia
  • Publication Date: 03-2008
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Atlantic Council
  • Abstract: The 2007 U.S.-China Energy Security Cooperation Dialogue was held in a period when a broad range of activities and policy recommendations have been proposed to address global energy security and environmental issues. The Dialogue identifi ed a number of further steps that China and the United States could cooperatively undertake to accelerate developments.
  • Topic: Economics, Energy Policy, Environment, Bilateral Relations
  • Political Geography: United States, China, Asia, North America
  • Publication Date: 05-2008
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Atlantic Council
  • Abstract: Because of their significant contribution to global demand for improved living standards, meaningful actions by the United States and China on transportation and energy will be important in any effort to reduce global consumption of traditional energy sources. Together the United States and China consume 40% of the world's energy and are responsible for 50% of the world's greenhouse gas emissions. Given their economic size and impact on global markets, it is imperative that the U.S. and China join in a mutually beneficial process.
  • Topic: Economics, Energy Policy, Environment, Bilateral Relations
  • Political Geography: United States, China, Asia, North America
  • Publication Date: 06-2007
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Atlantic Council
  • Abstract: The Atlantic Council of the United States and the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations organized the first "U.S.-China Energy Security Cooperation Dialogue," held in Beijing on 31 October-1 November 2006. Conference participants included foreign policy analysts and energy experts from the U.S. and Chinese governments, international organizations, non-governmental organizations, and universities in both the United States and China. The agenda covered a broad spectrum of energy and energy-related geopolitical issues, including long-range forecasts for energy supply and demand, energy sources ranging from oil and gas to coal, nuclear and renewables.
  • Topic: Climate Change, Energy Policy, International Cooperation
  • Political Geography: United States, China, Beijing, Asia
  • Author: Kenneth Katzman
  • Publication Date: 03-2007
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Atlantic Council
  • Abstract: This compendium contains the text of major regulations, laws, and other documents governing U.S. interactions with North Korea. Also provided are the text of U.N. Resolutions, agreements, and other documents that represent major policy decisions in U.S. relations with North Korea. Accompanying each major document, law, or regulation is a brief analysis discussing the policy reflected by that document and major significance of the provisions of the law or regulation promulgated.
  • Topic: Foreign Policy, International Affairs
  • Political Geography: United States, Asia, North Korea
  • Author: James Goodby, Jack N. Merritt
  • Publication Date: 04-2007
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Atlantic Council
  • Abstract: The United States has few more important policy goals than eliminating North Korea's nuclear weapons program. The risk that the repressive Pyongyang regime could transfer nuclear weapons and materials to rogue states or terrorist groups weighs particularly heavy on the minds of U.S. policymakers.
  • Topic: Foreign Policy, Weapons of Mass Destruction
  • Political Geography: United States, Asia, North Korea
  • Author: Harry Harding
  • Publication Date: 01-2006
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Atlantic Council
  • Abstract: China has done remarkably well in its development over the last twenty-five years. It has achieved and sustained high rates of economic growth, lifting millions out of poverty. It has achieved a significant place in the international economy. It is widely regarded as a major power, not only in Asia but also increasingly on a global stage. Looking ahead, however, things could go wrong – possibly quite seriously wrong – for China, and if China experiences serious problems, its size and its expanded role in the world mean that there could be serious consequences for the broader international community as well.
  • Topic: Development, Economics, International Trade and Finance
  • Political Geography: China, Asia
  • Author: Albert Kiedel
  • Publication Date: 01-2006
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Atlantic Council
  • Abstract: What are the implications if China sustains nine-percent growth through 2010? This is the basic question posed by conference organizers. The relevant time frame is what matters most. If China merely maintains nine-percent growth until the year 2010, the implications are not great. Too much is left unknown about what comes after 2010. Even with nine-percent growth over the next five years, China in 2010 will still be at a relatively low level of performance, both overall and in per-capita terms. But if sustaining nine-percent growth to 2010 means that China has launched on-going reforms that will continue to engineer institutional changes needed for a market economy's successful commercial and political management, then the resulting successful development trajectory in the rest of the century will generate profound and, from today's perspective, unexpected consequences.
  • Topic: International Relations, Development, Economics
  • Political Geography: China, Asia
  • Author: Edward J. Lincoln
  • Publication Date: 01-2006
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Atlantic Council
  • Abstract: China ought to be able to produce a relatively high economic growth rate over at least the next decade. There are a number of problems confronting the economy, but one of the great lessons of the past half-century of world economic growth is how much growth can result even when economies have considerable institutional flaws. Economists usually speak about the need to get the “fundamentals” right to produce economic growth, but we should also keep in mind that nations need not get have a perfect set of institutions and rules to generate growth.
  • Topic: Economics, International Trade and Finance, Regional Cooperation
  • Political Geography: China, Asia
  • Author: F. Stephen Larrabee, Jeffrey Simon, Jan Neutze, Steven Pifer
  • Publication Date: 02-2006
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Atlantic Council
  • Abstract: Since his inauguration in January 2005, Ukrainian President Viktor Yush-chenko has repeatedly stated that his foremost foreign policy goal is his country's integration into European and Euro-Atlantic institutions. “Joining Europe” today, be it preparing a country for a bid to enter the European Union or NATO, is an extraordinarily complex business. It will require the development of a consensus on a Euro-Atlantic policy course among the country's political leadership. It will also require an effective and coherent policy coordination structure. As the experience of other Eastern European countries has demonstrated, integration into the European Union or NATO is not just the responsibility of the foreign and defense ministries. It also requires coordination with the ministries of economy, justice, agrarian policy, transportation and communications, internal affairs – indeed, virtually every ministry in the Ukrainian Cabinet.
  • Topic: International Relations, NATO
  • Political Geography: Russia, Europe, Ukraine, Asia
  • Author: Banning Garrett, Franklin Kramer, Jonathan M. Adams
  • Publication Date: 03-2006
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Atlantic Council
  • Abstract: At the beginning of 2006, Taiwan is confronted with difficult choices that it currently seems unprepared to face. Cross-Strait tensions have diminished in the last year and Taiwan's economy has grown at an annualized rate of about 3.6 percent, which is respectable if not robust by East Asian standards. Taiwan, however, also faces an East Asian future which likely includes an increasingly important role for its relations with the Mainland as China becomes an ever more important economic and political factor regionally and globally.
  • Topic: Foreign Policy, Economics, International Trade and Finance
  • Political Geography: China, Taiwan, East Asia, Asia
  • Author: Robert Kapp
  • Publication Date: 12-2005
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Atlantic Council
  • Abstract: Peter Bottelier, the principal presenter of this topic, opened by noting that much discussion now surrounds the evolving “new line” embodied in China's economic plans for the next five years. The three agricultural questions, self-innovation, regional adjustment, opening up of a win-win “harmonious society,” and economizing on energy use: what do these and other much-discussed new terms really mean?
  • Topic: Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance
  • Political Geography: China, Asia
  • Author: Thomas Rawski
  • Publication Date: 12-2005
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Atlantic Council
  • Abstract: Beginning with the start of reform in the late 1970s, China's industry has recorded impressive growth of output, labor productivity, and exports as well as dramatic upgrading of the quality and variety of output. These gains have occurred in spite of difficulties arising from lethargic state enterprises, inadequate corporate governance, excessive official intervention, corruption, and weak financial institutions.
  • Topic: Economics, Industrial Policy, International Trade and Finance
  • Political Geography: China, Asia
  • Author: Kenneth Lieberthal
  • Publication Date: 12-2005
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Atlantic Council
  • Abstract: This article seeks to examine two key issues that will be major drivers of consumption in China over the coming five years: urbanization and environmental amelioration. Whether the issues identified will be the largest factors over this time frame remains unclear, but each of these two areas warrants considerable attention as a very significant contributor to the future of consumer demand in China.
  • Topic: Economics, Environment, International Trade and Finance
  • Political Geography: China, Asia
  • Author: Arthur R. Kroeber
  • Publication Date: 12-2005
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Atlantic Council
  • Abstract: China's impressive economic growth of the past quarter century (9.4 percent average annual real GDP growth between 1980 and 2004, by official figures) is not miraculous; on the contrary, it can largely be explained by conventional models of economic development.
  • Topic: Economics, Human Welfare, International Trade and Finance
  • Political Geography: China, Asia
  • Author: Joseph Fewsmith
  • Publication Date: 12-2005
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Atlantic Council
  • Abstract: China has now sustained two and a half decades of high-speed growth. This growth has been even faster with regard to exports and China's role in international trade. Domestically, a capitalist tendency seems to be everywhere, while internationally the rise of China, whether peaceful or not, seems – at least to some – to threaten Western jobs, prosperity, and the international order. The focus of this paper, however, is not this question of whether or how China poses a threat to the West but rather an old (but new) question of how this “capitalist” conversion is compatible with the continued rule of a communist party. This is a question of considerable practical import, as people contemplate what the continued growth of the Chinese economy might mean for the political stability of that country, but it is also a question of considerable theoretical import: Leninist parties that sought to “include” external interests, it was argued, are on the way to collapse. It is only a matter of time. The time frame for China has lasted longer than theoreticians had supposed, though they might yet prove to be right – perhaps the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has lasted longer than people imagined but it might still be on the road to collapse. This point of view would find supporters, both in the West and in China, but even if they prove right, it is important to inquire more deeply about what is going on in China, whether institutions are being created, and if so whether they might provide a foundation for a post-communist China or whether they suggest a more chaotic future.
  • Topic: Economics, International Trade and Finance
  • Political Geography: China, Asia
  • Author: Lt. Colonel Gordon B. Hendrickson
  • Publication Date: 12-2005
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Atlantic Council
  • Abstract: Following the dissolution of the Soviet Union and the Warsaw Pact, NATO has enlarged its membership twice with countries formerly under Soviet influence and control, and the Alliance is now preparing to begin the process for a third expansion effort. During this time, Russia has watched the borders of NATO creep ever closer to its own, but has generally been powerless to prevent it. Although NATO has taken pains to include and consult with Russia regarding its actions and future plans, the Kremlin cannot reasonably be expected to continue to watch NATO's expansion eastward without eventually pushing back hard. Without question, many significant issues and challenges must still be solved before enlarging the Alliance once again. In light of this, NATO must work rigorously to continue to keep Russia engaged in a productive and mutually beneficial relationship as both sides work through the future obstacles that inevitably will arise in the NATO -Russia relationship.
  • Topic: International Relations, NATO
  • Political Geography: Russia, Europe, Asia, Soviet Union
  • Author: Frances G. Burwell
  • Publication Date: 04-2005
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Atlantic Council
  • Abstract: By the beginning of 2005, the improvement in relations between Russia and the West had lost momentum and come to a standstill, as serious concerns emerged in the United States and Europe about developments in Russia. European and U.S. commentators who disagree over economic policies and Iraq find themselves in broad critical consensus about Russian political and economic evolution. Will the term that has been moribund since the death of the Cold War — “containment” — emerge as an option for those in the United States and Europe making policy toward Russia? Already some argue for isolating Russia from Ukraine, Georgia, and other former Soviet republics; will they encourage the building of a new fence around Russia? Or will there be a new effort at engagement, albeit one that is more cautious about Russia's future in the West?
  • Topic: Cold War, Development, International Cooperation
  • Political Geography: Russia, United States, Europe, Asia
  • Author: Frances G. Burwell
  • Publication Date: 02-2005
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Atlantic Council
  • Abstract: For the past decade, both the United States and the governments of Europe — including the European Union — have sought to engage Russia with the goal of having a stable and democratic country increasingly integrated into the western political and economic system. Recently, however, many U.S. and European observers have become concerned that the Russian government seems to be moving in a more authoritarian direction, centralizing government decision-making, while backsliding on some reforms and neglecting others. Although economic growth has been robust, there is less confidence about the application of the rule of law. Instability persists in many of the states neighboring Russia, offering opportunities for regional conflict and for misunderstanding between Russia and the West.
  • Topic: International Relations
  • Political Geography: Russia, United States, Europe, Asia
  • Author: Richard L. Lawson, John R. Lyman, Donald L. Guertin, Tarun Das, Shinji Fukukawa, Yang Jike
  • Publication Date: 07-2003
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Atlantic Council
  • Abstract: For China and India, rapid economic growth is imperative to alleviate poverty, raise income levels and improve their citizens' quality of life. In 2000, China and India's combined populations of 2.3 billion represented over 38 percent of the world's population. With both countries determined to grow their economies rapidly, there will be an associated rapid rise in energy demand. One of the most significant problems facing the two countries is the existing and increasing level of air pollution that will accompany growing energy consumption. This report focuses on the challenge of developing economic, energy, and environmental policies that will complement existing policies designed to reconcile the drive for economic growth with the need for greater environmental protection of air quality.
  • Topic: Economics, Environment
  • Political Geography: United States, Japan, China, India, Asia
  • Author: Walter B. Slocombe, C. Richard Nelson, Michael P.C. Carns, Jacques S. Gansler
  • Publication Date: 06-2003
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Atlantic Council
  • Abstract: The prospect of North Korea developing both nuclear weapons and long–range missiles has been at the core of the U.S. rationale for early deployment of a missile defense and of Japan's interest in defense for itself. In the face of North Korea's missile programs and its acknowledgement of an active program to develop nuclear weapons, the problem of defense against those weapons assumes new urgency — as does the question of how defenses affect the broader dynamic of security in Northeast Asia.
  • Topic: Security, International Law
  • Political Geography: United States, Japan, Asia, North Korea
  • Author: Charles Grant, Christopher J. Makins, Sergey Rogov, Christoph Bertram, Robert Nurick
  • Publication Date: 09-2002
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Atlantic Council
  • Abstract: The integration of Russia into the West will be one of the most important, and most difficult, tasks facing the United States and Europe during the next decade. Yet a closer relationship with the West will be key to the development of Russian prosperity, democracy, and stability – achievements that will benefit the West as well as Russia. The attacks on September 11 and the resulting campaign against terrorism have given a decisive push to this effort, providing the political will for closer cooperation between Russia and the West.
  • Topic: Development
  • Political Geography: Russia, United States, Europe, Asia
  • Author: Gen. Jack N. Merritt
  • Publication Date: 09-2002
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Atlantic Council
  • Abstract: The People's Republic of China (PRC). As of mid-2002, the PRC's policy is to emphasize the positive, stressing its desire for an improved – and hopefully more stable – relationship with the United States. This policy reflects China's recognition of the need for stability at a time of many challenges. In the next few years, the PRC leadership will be seeking to extend economic reform and build prosperity beyond the limited areas in big cities and the eastern provinces that have made great strides in recent years. China will need to adjust the economy to the market-opening demands that World Trade Organization (WTO) membership will bring and it will face the problem of moving successfully over the next decade through a transition in leadership without compromising the continued power of the Party leadership group.
  • Topic: International Relations, Foreign Policy
  • Political Geography: United States, China, Asia
  • Author: Richard L. Lawson, Donald L. Guertin, Shinji Fukukawa, Kazuo Shimoda
  • Publication Date: 11-2000
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Atlantic Council
  • Abstract: Given the dramatic increases in economic growth, energy use and attendant environmental problems in Asia, it is timely for Japan and the United States to increase their bilateral cooperation and cooperation with other Asian countries in the energy field as an integral part of their efforts to help Asia achieve sustainable development. The magnitude of growth in Asia in energy use is well illustrated, for example, by a projected doubling in China from 1990 to 2020. Projections indicate energy demand in China could triple by 2050, relative to 1990. These increases are not only of great significance to individual Asian economies, but also globally, as projections indicate that most of the growth in energy demand in the next century will occur in Asia (and principally in China and India). Achievement of such growth in energy demand, to improve the living standards of the 3.3 billion Asians that now represent about half of the world's population, is essential from the viewpoint of equity, social development and the economic well-being of people throughout Asia.
  • Topic: Energy Policy, International Cooperation
  • Political Geography: United States, China, Israel, East Asia, Asia
  • Author: C. Richard Nelson, James E. Goodby, Tomohisha Sakanaka, W. Neal Anderson, Tomohide Murai, Shinichi Ogawa
  • Publication Date: 05-1999
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Atlantic Council
  • Abstract: The main challenge for Asia is to build a security community that transforms a legacy of military competition into security cooperation. This transformation will be difficult because of the high level of distrust among the states and considerable uncertainty about future relations. Asia lacks the kinds of developed, institutionalized multilateral security arrangements that contribute to transparency, confidence-building and long-term stability. Furthermore, a “ business as usual ” approach that focuses on managing bilateral relationships is unlikely to result in a security community. More attention needs to be devoted to multilateral security efforts. Without the reassurance of a network of cooperative arrangements, including verifiable arms limitations, potential adversaries may place their hopes in achieving unilateral military advantages. Such efforts could foster fears of regional domination and, in turn, a potential arms race that includes nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles.
  • Topic: Security, NATO
  • Political Geography: United States, Israel, East Asia, Asia
  • Author: Donald L. Guertin, Richard E. Balzhiser, Christian Gobert, William J. Dirks, Joy C. Dunkerley, Stephen P. Pettibone
  • Publication Date: 02-1999
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Atlantic Council
  • Abstract: Despite the recent global economic slowdown, the demand for energy services is bound to increase over the long term in order to provide improved living standards for growing populations, in particular in developing countries. In recognition of its unique characteristics, the demand for electricity will rise even faster than total energy. Several studies present scenarios that show a doubling of global installed capacity over the next twenty years.
  • Topic: Energy Policy, Nuclear Weapons
  • Political Geography: United States, Asia