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511. Round Table I – Regional Security

Author:
Graeme P. Herd
Publication Date:
01-2018
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Warsaw East European Review (WEER)
Institution:
Centre for East European Studies, University of Warsaw
Abstract:
I am delighted to be in Warsaw on this panel. In 1994 when I graduated with a PhD, and held my first academic post, the first international conference I went to was in Wrocław, and obviously I had to travel through Warsaw. So, it’s really nice to be back in Poland and have the opportunity to present in the capital when older and wiser. Today, I am going to try and look at how we understand the rationality, the logic of Russia’s foreign policy, particularly the destabilization efforts against neighbours and come to a conclusion has to how sustainable and long-term this approach will be. Will it gradually diminish or is it set to stay as it is or even increase? To try and understand Russia’s foreign policy, we need to look into the domestic eco- nomic, political, and social system created by a system-forming figure that is President Vladimir Putin. The two key data points here really are two strategic vulnerabilities that Russia has to deal with. The first is the hydrocarbon dependence, 50% of GDP and 70% of exports, and 98% of corporate tax. The vulnerability is that Russia is dependent on hy- drocarbon revenues but cannot affect the price of oil globally (which sets the price of gas). Oil can be priced at $110pb or at $25pb and the shift can take place over a matter of months. The second vulnerability is the popularity of the president. When Putin has de-modernized Russia, de-institutionalized and de-globalized Russia it means that if his popularity decreases then you have an existential crisis within the federation. The destabi- lizing question is: “If not Putin, then whom?” There are no contingency plans, no succession mechanism to replace the leader. So, essentially we are looking at Russia’s foreign policy operating in a context where the economy is in the toilet as reflected in a 0.2% average GDP growth since 2009; 2012 – 0% growth and since 2012 when Kudrin resigned from the government. Normally, the popularity of a president – as was the case in the first 8 years of Putin’s presidency from 2000 to 2008 – tracks the economy, or maybe lags a little bit behind. As economic performance increases and revenues distributed to the population, so the popularity of the president. So, this is very abnormal politics.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Regional Cooperation, and Military Strategy
Political Geography:
Russia and Europe

512. Change of the Security Environment in the Transatlantic Region and its Impact on the Evolution of Foreign and Security Policy of the State

Author:
Valeriy Kravchenko
Publication Date:
01-2018
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Warsaw East European Review (WEER)
Institution:
Centre for East European Studies, University of Warsaw
Abstract:
The analysis report includes research of the main trends and their components of relevant change in the European security environment; considers political steps of the main international actors within the sphere of the security architecture of the region. The author de- scribes the possibilities of enhancing a regional cooperation, an implementation of multilateral initiatives in the context of modern security challenges. The report reviews the effect of these changes on the defense policy of Ukraine, suggests and substantiates appropriate recommen- dations for Ukrainian public authorities on the need for more active involvement in the forma- tion of the new sub-regional security system.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Military Strategy, and Multilateralism
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

513. Round Table I – Regional Security

Author:
Matthew Rhodes
Publication Date:
01-2018
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Warsaw East European Review (WEER)
Institution:
Centre for East European Studies, University of Warsaw
Abstract:
I will try to talk about a little bit about what NATO in particular as a core part of this community has been doing to respond. A starting point is to recognize that this confer- ence is taking place at almost exactly the one year anniversary of NATO’s summit here in Warsaw. I had an opportunity to participate during this summit at the parallel Warsaw Summit Experts Forum that was organized by NATO together with the Polish Institute of International Affairs here in Warsaw. While the adults were meeting in the Warsaw National Stadium about 300 other professors and experts such as myself were meeting in a circus tent across the parking lot. Sometimes this felt a little bit silly but it was very interesting to hear firsthand from many of the people attending the main summit and one of the open- ing speakers there was President Duda. One thing that stuck with me was his remark that for him this summit was the second most important thing that had happened for Poland since the end of the Cold War and the only thing that topped it was Poland’s entry to NATO itself, so for him this was really a big deal. What I will try to do in my time is to talk a little bit about why the Warsaw Summit was so important for President Duda and other leaders of the alliance, and try to reflect on where we are a year after that summit and what remains to be done for NATO to respond to the Russian threat especially of hybrid warfare.
Topic:
Security, NATO, Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, Military Strategy, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Europe, Poland, and North America

514. Crime, citizenship and race: Latin American dilemmas in security doctrine

Author:
José Oviedo Pérez
Publication Date:
07-2018
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Conjuntura Austral: Journal of the Global South
Institution:
Conjuntura Austral: Journal of the Global South
Abstract:
Latin America (LA) over the past century has experienced a period of relative interstate peace, free from the bloody wars typically seen in other global regions, such as Europe (CENTENO, 2002; MARES, 2001). The region, however, is also the most violent and unsafe in the world. Los Cabos, Mexico, the deadliest city in the world in 2017, boasts about 111.33 deaths per every 100,000 residents (SEGURIDAD, JUSTICIA Y PAZ, 2018: 3), making many of the region’s urban areas resemble combat zones. This paradoxically results in LA having what some scholars term a “violent” or “hybrid” peace (BATTAGLIO, 2012; MARES, 2001). This article discusses and analyses the historical trajectory that contributed to this development, specifically analyzing post-Cold War security doctrine in the region through a racial lens. Using historical process-tracing and a review of previous academic literature, we describe how the constitution of national identities, as well as state articulations of “citizenship” and “crime,” has resulted in a specific way of viewing and treating afro-descend-ent people across LA. This process has also contributed to the current security crisis across the hemisphere.
Topic:
Security, Crime, Race, Citizenship, Violence, and Peace
Political Geography:
Latin America

515. Japan’s new assertiveness: institutional change and Japan’s securitization of China

Author:
Kai Schulze
Publication Date:
05-2018
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
International Relations of the Asia-Pacific
Institution:
Japan Association of International Relations
Abstract:
In recent years, Japan's foreign policy elite has started to increasingly securitize China in their security discourse. The harsher tone from Tokyo is widely evaluated as a direct reaction to China’s own assertive behavior since 2009/2010. Yet, the change in the Japanese government’s rhetoric had started changing before 2010. In order to close this gap, the present article sheds light on an alternative causal variable that has been overlooked in the literature: a change in Japan’s security institutions, more specifically, the upgrade of the Defense Agency to the Ministry of Defense, in 2007. While utilizing discursive institutionalism and securitization-approaches, the present article demonstrates that a strong correlation indeed exists between the institutional shift and the change in Japan’s defense whitepapers in the 2007–10 period. It thus opens up a research avenue for the further scrutiny of the hitherto understudied but significant causal linkage in the study of contemporary Japanese security policy toward China
Topic:
International Relations, Security, Foreign Policy, and Government
Political Geography:
Japan, China, and Asia-Pacific

516. Detecting patterns in North Korean military provocations: what machine-learning tells us

Author:
Taehee Whang, Michael Lammbrau, and Hyung-min Joo
Publication Date:
05-2018
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
International Relations of the Asia-Pacific
Institution:
Japan Association of International Relations
Abstract:
For the past two decades, North Korea has made a series of military provocations, destabilizing the regional security of East Asia. In particular, Pyongyang has launched several conventional attacks on South Korea. Although these attacks seem unpredictable and random, we attempt in this article to find some patterns in North Korean provocations. To this end, we employ a machine-learning technique to analyze news articles of the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) from 1997 to 2013. Based on five key words (‘years,’ ‘signed,’ ‘assembly,’ ‘June,’ and ‘Japanese’), our model identifies North Korean provocations with 82% accuracy. Further investigation into these attack words and the contexts in which they appear produces significant insights into the ways in which we can detect North Korean provocations.
Topic:
Security, Military Strategy, and Military Affairs
Political Geography:
Asia, South Korea, North Korea, and Asia-Pacific

517. Britain’s Post-Colonial Foreign Policy Towards the Persian Gulf Security (1971-1991): An Alternative Approach

Author:
Esra Cavusoglu
Publication Date:
12-2018
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Turkish Journal of Middle Eastern Studies
Institution:
Sakarya University (SAU)
Abstract:
British withdrawal from the Persian Gulf in 1971, started a new era in the region with new political order and new security map. Iran and Saudi Arabia emerged as the guardians of the status quo to be filling the power vacuum left by the British in behalf of the West. Britain adopted a new post-imperial role in the region along with new post-colonial foreign policy in the post-withdrawal context. British policy towards the regional security is analysed in this article with central focus on the shift emerged in the aftermath of the Iranian Revolution in the British policy. After 1979, Iran, no longer a Western ally, has been defined as the major internal threat for the regional security following the major external threat of the Soviet expansion in the British foreign policy. This paper argues that the shift in the British policy came along with a sectarianist approach towards the region. The sectarianization emerged with the securitization of the Gulf based on “Iran threat” within the determinants of the Anglo-American alliance on the regional security. The sectarianist discourse adopted by the British foreign policy was employed as an effective tool of the securitization of the Gulf that was deepened during the regional conflicts, the Iran-Iraq War and the Gulf War.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Military Strategy, and Sectarianism
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, Europe, Iran, Middle East, and Persian Gulf

518. The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation in the Context of the Chinese Grand Strategy

Author:
Tommaso Rossotti
Publication Date:
07-2018
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Rest: Journal of Politics and Development
Institution:
Centre for Strategic Research and Analysis (CESRAN)
Abstract:
Being the most populous country and the second biggest economy in the world, the People’s Republic of China is under every aspect one of the most important players in today’s international system. As every great power, China acts rationally in its foreign relations, and, doing so, it follows what has been labelled as a “Grand Strategy”. The aim of this paper is to analyse Chinese Grand Strategy in a practical perspective; in particular, it will be discussed how the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) fits in Beijing foreign policy and in its Grand Strategy. The paper moves from a working definition of Grand Strategy, to suddenly analyse how and if the different aims and goals of the SCO are aligned with China’s interests and long-term objectives.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Hegemony, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:
China and Asia

519. The Armenia – Azerbaijan Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict and New Threats to the International Security Architecture in the Modern Period: Challenges and Responses

Author:
Sadir Mammadov
Publication Date:
06-2018
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Nowa Polityka Wschodnia
Institution:
Faculty of Political Science and International Studies, Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń
Abstract:
In the paper, we present new threats and dangers in the present international arena and their impact on the system of international security. We analyze the causes and development of these issues the international law system, paying particular attention to the case of Armenian-Azerbaijan Nagorno-Karabakh conflicts. We also discuss possible solutions to these problems proposed by experts. Some of the most interesting issues we address in the paper include the increasing activity of ISIL, cybercrimes, Ukraine crisis, immigration flow to Europe in recent years. All these problems are viewed from the multicultural perspective. We also analyze the genesis of ethnic conflicts, and put forward some recommendations for resolving them. We discuss the factors that led to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflicts, possible solutions to this problem, and a dangerous double standard policy. Terrorist threats, as well as “frozen” conflicts, resulted in the need for deepening interstate cooperation in the security sector.
Topic:
Security, Migration, Territorial Disputes, Ethnicity, Conflict, and UN Security Council
Political Geography:
Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Nagorno-Karabakh

520. Linkages between Political Parties and Political Violence

Author:
John Rabuogi Ahere
Publication Date:
07-2018
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
African Journal on Conflict Resolution
Institution:
The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:
Political struggles and competitions are conflictual by their very nature, and if not well managed can lead to violence. As political parties are crucial actors in political processes, it is vital to understand the roles they play in escalating or de-escalating political violence. This paper provides an analysis of political parties in Kenya and South Africa, focusing on their linkages to political violence. It concludes that political parties are indispensable actors in peacebuilding. The design and implementation of peacebuilding interventions that effectively target political violence must therefore anticipate the involvement of political parties. This applies to both case study countries, but most probably to other countries as well.
Topic:
Security, Political Violence, Peace, and Political Parties
Political Geography:
Kenya, Africa, and South Africa