Content Type: Journal Article / Publication Year: 3 selected

1101. Explaining Egypt’s January 2011 Revolution between Conspiracy and Conventional Wisdom

Author:: Mustapha Kamel Al-Sayyid
Publication Date:: 02-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: Ten years on, conspiracy theories about the root causes of the 2011 Egyptian uprising still abound.
Topic:: Revolution, Civil Unrest, Conspiracy Theory, and Uprising
Political Geography:: Africa and Egypt

1102. Africa and the United States: Reengaging with Africa’s Prosperity in Mind

Author:: Carl Manlan
Publication Date:: 02-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: With China as a dominant foreign power in Africa, the only option left for United States to engage with the continent is to follow its priorities: namely, prioritizing African youth.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, International Cooperation, Hegemony, Youth, Strategic Competition, and Rivalry
Political Geography:: Africa, China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

1103. Does the Biden Administration Have Time for Foreign Policy?

Author:: Basant Samhout
Publication Date:: 02-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: As the United States moves back to a more traditional presidency, the world questions the new administration’s ability, much less willingness, to take a leading role in world politics amid more demanding issues at home
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Governance, Hegemony, Leadership, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

1104. Why the Phrase “Arab Spring” Should be Retired

Author:: Sean David Hobbs
Publication Date:: 02-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: It’s time to stop using a Western-based concept ten years on from the events that began the Arab Uprisings.
Topic:: Social Movement, Arab Spring, Decolonization, and Civil Unrest
Political Geography:: Africa, Middle East, and MENA

1105. Messages to America

Author:: Nabil Fahmy
Publication Date:: 02-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: I look forward to a more positive U.S. posture in the world arena, however I also call on the international community to take initiatives toward reforming the international system. The matter isn’t an American issue or responsibility alone and should not be. It affects us all.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, International Cooperation, Leadership, Strategic Interests, and Intervention
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

1106. “Reconciliation” in the Communiqué of the Gulf Cooperation Council

Author:: Ibrahim Awad
Publication Date:: 02-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: A lengthy diplomatic process is still needed to pave the way toward a true Arab rapprochement.c
Topic:: Security, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Regionalism, and Reconciliation
Political Geography:: Africa, Middle East, and Gulf Nations

1107. The Future of Work: Between Technology and Inequality

Author:: Dania El Akkawi
Publication Date:: 02-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: While the future is foggy in light of the pandemic, the importance of technology is real and certain, and the creation of new jobs will pave the way for new global work arrangements.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Labor Issues, Inequality, Work Culture, and Workforce
Political Geography:: Global Focus

1108. Funding Feminism: Grantmaking for Women’s Rights

Author:: Sydney Wise
Publication Date:: 02-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: Anne Firth Murray, founding president of the Global Fund for Women, chronologizes a lifetime of harms faced by women and posits community as a remedy.
Topic:: Gender Issues, Women, Feminism, and Equality
Political Geography:: Global Focus

1109. Can the Arab Region meet the Sustainable Development Goals by 2030?

Author:: Mourad Wahba
Publication Date:: 02-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: There are multiple challenges which need to be confronted in both data collection and public policy so that the SDGs can be attained.
Topic:: Development, Sustainable Development Goals, Public Policy, and Sustainability
Political Geography:: Africa, Middle East, and Arab Countries

1110. A Visualization of Egypt’s Economic Performance During COVID-19

Author:: Omar Auf
Publication Date:: 02-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: In this infographic article, we illustrate Egypt’s economic performance, pandemic response, and future based on commentary from IMF economist Said Bakhache.
Topic:: Economics, Public Health, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Africa and Egypt

1111. Yemen’s Peace Process: A Path to Conflict?

Author:: Abdullah Hamidaddin
Publication Date:: 05-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: The possibilities and risks of Yemen embracing peace and stability after a long period of internal civil war remain bleak.
Topic:: Civil War, Diplomacy, Conflict, and Peace
Political Geography:: Yemen and Gulf Nations

1112. The Rise of the United Arab Emirates

Author:: Abdullkhaleq Abdulla
Publication Date:: 05-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: By harnessing national confidence, proactively dealing with regional security concerns and exercising geopolitical cooperation, the UAE is positioning itself as a regional powerhouse.
Topic:: Security, Governance, Hegemony, and Regionalism
Political Geography:: United Arab Emirates and Gulf Nations

1113. Maintaining the U.S.-Saudi Relationship

Author:: Hussein Ibish
Publication Date:: 05-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: The once booming strategic alliance between Riyadh and Washington has weathered a number of regional storms but is beginning to show wear and tear.
Topic:: Security, Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Alliance, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Middle East, Saudi Arabia, North America, United States of America, and Gulf Nations

1114. Solving the Nuclear Stalemate between Iran and the United States

Author:: Gawdat Bahgat
Publication Date:: 05-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: To reach an agreement on Iran’s nuclear program and provide an effective security apparatus across the region, all Middle Eastern countries need to move beyond a zero-sum mentality.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, Regional Cooperation, Military Strategy, and Regionalism
Political Geography:: Iran and Middle East

1115. The End of Corporate Janissaries in the Gulf

Author:: Muhammad Al-Ubayadi
Publication Date:: 05-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: Gulf family companies and businesses must learn to wean off the Kafala system that has created short-sighted dependency on elite migrant workers, much like the flawed Janissary model of governance.
Topic:: Labor Issues, Governance, Family, Corporations, and Migrant Workers
Political Geography:: Gulf Nations

1116. The Long Road to Economic Transformation in the Gulf

Author:: Nader Kabbani
Publication Date:: 05-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: To successfully reinvent their economies, Gulf states must move past the deadweight of legacy policies and their adverse consequences.
Topic:: Economics, Governance, Economic Growth, and Legal Theory
Political Geography:: Gulf Nations

1117. Iran and the GCC: Prospects for a Grand Reconciliation

Author:: Sharmine Narwani
Publication Date:: 05-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: To realize shared priorities and fulfill the Persian Gulf’s potential as a global cornerstone for energy and trade, hardline Gulf states must acquiesce to waning U.S. hegemony and pursue reconciliation with Iran.
Topic:: Security, Energy Policy, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Hegemony, and Reconciliation
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, North America, United States of America, and Gulf Nations

1118. The UAE Art Scene: Challenges and Opportunities

Author:: Sultan Sooud Al Qassemi
Publication Date:: 05-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: Sustainability and longevity of a thriving cultural sector in the Gulf must be treated as a priority, which is why long-term planning is essential in order to ensure the ability of the art field to meet with both current and future challenges.
Topic:: Development, Arts, Culture, and Cultural Diplomacy
Political Geography:: United Arab Emirates and Gulf Nations

1119. Transforming Domestic Extremism in the United States

Author:: Chris Bosley
Publication Date:: 04-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: In the aftermath of the Capitol insurrection, efforts to counter domestic extremism should address the social and structural dynamics that contribute to violence.
Topic:: Violent Extremism, Radicalization, Radical Right, Insurrection, Political Extremism, and January 6
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

1120. Summers of Strife: From Libya to Ethiopia

Author:: Nabil Fahmy
Publication Date:: 05-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: Ethiopia’s obstinance puts the region at a sensitive crossroads again
Topic:: Water, Infrastructure, Conflict, Institutions, and Regionalism
Political Geography:: Africa and Ethiopia

1121. Women and Children First

Author:: Elena Habersky
Publication Date:: 04-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: Women and children migrant voices, especially after the pandemic, must be amplified in discussions around the Global Compact, which aims to bring world governments in line with good and safe migration governance.
Topic:: Migration, Governance, Children, Women, Humanitarian Crisis, and Gender
Political Geography:: Global Focus

1122. African Podcasting: Challenges and Chances

Author:: Kim Fox and Josephine Karianjahi
Publication Date:: 08-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: While podcasting in Africa faces many challenges, including prohibitive data consumption costs and the digital divide, it offers the amplification of regional perspectives and audience expansion in return.
Topic:: Globalization, Science and Technology, Innovation, Regionalism, Digital Culture, and Podcast
Political Geography:: Africa

1123. The Renaissance Dam after the Security Council

Author:: Nabil Fahmy
Publication Date:: 08-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: Egypt and Sudan continue to insist on a tripartite agreement to manage Ethiopia’s contentious plan to execute its Renaissance dam on the Nile.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, Infrastructure, and Dams
Political Geography:: Africa, Sudan, Ethiopia, and Egypt

1124. More than a Monolith

Author:: Ariana Bennett
Publication Date:: 08-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: Home to 54 unique countries, ancient civilizations and cultures, Africa is much more than meets the world’s eye.
Topic:: Civil Society, Economics, Environment, Culture, Social Policy, and Regionalism
Political Geography:: Africa

1125. A Pandemic of Vaccine and Technology Hoarding: Unmasking Global Inequality and Hypocrisy

Author:: Lauren Paremoer
Publication Date:: 08-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: Intellectual property waivers are key to dismantling global vaccine apartheid and providing equitable vaccination to Africa and other continents.
Topic:: Globalization, Science and Technology, Intellectual Property/Copyright, Vaccine, and Medicine
Political Geography:: Africa

1126. Africa is Climbing the Prosperity Ladder but Some Rungs are Broken

Author:: Musaazi Namiti
Publication Date:: 08-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: Africa is a continent with six of the world’s ten fastest-growing economies, but can it overcome its major challenges?
Topic:: Economics, Inequality, Economic Growth, and Prosperity
Political Geography:: Africa

1127. The Long Road to African Tourism Recovery

Author:: Helmo Preuss
Publication Date:: 08-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: The Covid-19 pandemic wreaked havoc on the tourism industry in 2020, but this year a slow vaccine rollout and new variants means it will take a while to recover to pre-pandemic levels.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Tourism, Public Health, Vaccine, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Economic Recovery
Political Geography:: Africa

1128. Millions of People Continue to be Forcibly Displaced in Africa

Author:: Maysa Ayoub
Publication Date:: 08-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: Even though forced displacement is a global crisis, it is no more obvious than in Africa.
Topic:: Humanitarian Aid, Displacement, Conflict, Humanitarian Crisis, and Forced Migration
Political Geography:: Africa

1129. In Malawi, the battle to save mangoes

Author:: Charles Mkoka
Publication Date:: 08-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: Malawi, like other African fruit producers, is drawing on local and global resources to combat a pest which threatens vital fruit exports.
Topic:: Agriculture, Economics, Exports, Farming, and Crops
Political Geography:: Africa and Malawi

1130. A New Water Paradigm for Sub-Saharan Africa

Author:: Djiby Thiam
Publication Date:: 08-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: To make clean water and sanitation truly accessible to local communities across the continent, African institutions must take the lead in understanding the specific challenges and opportunities they face.
Topic:: Development, Regional Cooperation, Water, Infrastructure, Sanitation, Sustainability, and Africa Union
Political Geography:: Africa

1131. This Watershed Moment for the Land(s) between the River and the Sea

Author:: Richard Silverstein
Publication Date:: 06-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: The recent war between Israel and Hamas has transformed the moral calculus of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Military Strategy, Territorial Disputes, Conflict, Hamas, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

1132. Shaping Africa’s New Normal

Author:: Amina Abdel-Halim
Publication Date:: 04-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: In the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, African nations are working through the Aswan Forum for Sustainable Peace and Development to set the continent back on track with its developmental Agenda 2063.
Topic:: Development, Regional Cooperation, Peace, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Africa

1133. Young People Are Leading Climate Activism in the Middle East

Author:: Neeshad Shafi
Publication Date:: 10-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: Across the Arab World and the Middle East, young people are mobilizing to raise climate change awareness.
Topic:: Climate Change, Environment, Social Movement, and Youth
Political Geography:: Middle East

1134. Climate Change and the Global South: The Case of Africa

Author:: Agnes Babugura
Publication Date:: 10-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: Should climate change continue unaddressed, it is estimated that of the additional 30–170 million people who are likely to suffer from malnutrition or under-nutrition globally in the coming years, three-quarters will be in Africa.
Topic:: Climate Change, Environment, Poverty, Inequality, and Nutrition
Political Geography:: Africa

1135. The U.N. Climate Summit and Its Aftermath

Author:: Nabil Fahmy
Publication Date:: 10-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: Developing countries see the call for equal actions with their richer counterparts as serving the interests of the latter.
Topic:: Climate Change, Development, Environment, International Cooperation, and United Nations
Political Geography:: Global Focus

1136. Saving a Water-Stressed Middle East

Author:: Neda Zawahri
Publication Date:: 10-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: Inefficient water management exacerbates water insecurity in the MENA region, already the area most vulnerable to the catastrophic impact of the climate crisis. Building adaptive capacity is critical to ensure national and individual water security.
Topic:: Security, Water, Infrastructure, and Food Security
Political Geography:: Middle East

1137. Who Feels Climate Anxiety?

Author:: Sarah Jaquette Ray
Publication Date:: 10-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: In the simplest terms, the answer is: it depends on who perceives it as a threat, and what “anxiety” means to them.
Topic:: Security, Climate Change, Environment, and Natural Disasters
Political Geography:: Global Focus

1138. Locked-in Emissions: The Climate Change Arms Trade

Author:: Wendela de Vries
Publication Date:: 10-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: With militaries’ locked-in fossil fuel systems and looming climate chaos, the arms industry continues to take advantage of nefarious profit opportunities.
Topic:: Climate Change, Energy Policy, Environment, Military Strategy, Natural Resources, Fossil Fuels, Private Sector, and Defense Industry
Political Geography:: Global Focus

1139. A Climate Crisis in Africa: The Case of South Sudan

Author:: Nhial Tiitmamer
Publication Date:: 10-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: The African continent will be the most severely affected by climate change. Within Africa, the least developed and politically unstable nations like South Sudan are likely to be the hardest hit. What can be done, and who should be at the forefront of these changes?
Topic:: Climate Change, Development, Environment, Infrastructure, and Health Crisis
Political Geography:: Africa and South Sudan

1140. The Slow Violence of Climate Change

Author:: Garret Barnwell and Savo Heleta
Publication Date:: 10-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: A warming planet places the heaviest burden on the countries and people least responsible for climate destruction. Survival necessitates justice, redress, and structural change.
Topic:: Climate Change, Environment, Infrastructure, Conflict, and Violence
Political Geography:: Global Focus

1141. Covid-19’s Not Through With Us Yet

Author:: Dahr Jamail
Publication Date:: 09-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: As vaccines offer hope for a world after Covid, experts warn that in many ways, the fight is only beginning.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Vaccine, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Medicine
Political Geography:: Global Focus

1142. A New Water Paradigm for Sub-Saharan Africa

Author:: Djiby Thiam
Publication Date:: 10-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: To make clean water and sanitation truly accessible to local communities across the continent, African institutions must take the lead in understanding the specific challenges and opportunities they face.
Topic:: Climate Change, Environment, Water, Infrastructure, Food Security, and Sanitation
Political Geography:: Africa

1143. The Climate Crisis Needs a Global Green New Deal

Author:: Ariana Bennett
Publication Date:: 09-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: A Global Green New Deal would equitably prevent dangerous levels of warming, but it must be implemented soon.
Topic:: Climate Change, Environment, Green Technology, and Green New Deal
Political Geography:: Global Focus

1144. COVID-19, Supply Chains, and Dependence on China: The Indian Perspective

Author:: Amitendu Palit
Publication Date:: 07-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Joint U.S.-Korea Academic Studies
Institution:: Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
Abstract:: China is India’s largest source of imports, nearly 15 percent of which are sourced from China. Many of India’s major imports—electrical machinery, electronic and semiconductor devices, fertilizers, antibiotics, iron and steel products, and vehicular parts—are extensively sourced from China. The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic highlighted the critical dependence of India’s pharmaceutical industry on China for active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs). The dependence on China for both intermediate and finished products, has encouraged India to incentivize greater production at home through production-linked-incentives (PLIs) and to work with Japan and Australia on reorganizing regional supply chains. The paper examines the repositioning of supply chains in the strategic industry of pharmaceuticals. Efforts to reduce dependence on China assume great importance in this regard as India strives to become the leading supplier of affordable vaccines for tackling COVID-19.) The decade of the 2020’s has begun with India embarking on the dedicated mission of reducing import dependence and increasing self-reliance. The COVID-19 pandemic has starkly exposed the frailties of supply chains relying heavily on China. For India, which relies extensively on China for several critical imports, no sector is more vulnerable to disruptions from over-dependence than its pharmaceuticals. India’s reputation as the “pharmacy of the world” drawn from its great proficiency in making affordable pharmaceutical formulations and vaccines, relies fundamentally on sourcing essential drug intermediates from China. As one of the leading actors in the world’s fight against COVID-19, India is wary of sourcing disruptions from China affecting its ability to contribute to expanding global health security. After focusing on the import dependence of India’s pharmaceutical industry on China, this paper analyzes the recent initiatives announced by India for increasing economic self-reliance and reducing such dependence. It concludes by reflecting on the prospects of India decoupling from China in sourcing pharmaceutical ingredients.
Topic:: Economics, COVID-19, Imports, and Supply Chains
Political Geography:: China, South Asia, India, and Asia

1145. Taiwan’s Shifting Role in the Global Supply Chain in the U.S.- China Trade War

Author:: Jinji Chen, Hong-yu Lin, and Yi-ting Lien
Publication Date:: 07-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Joint U.S.-Korea Academic Studies
Institution:: Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
Abstract:: The U.S.-China trade war and the pandemic have had a profound impact on cross-border supply chains. In the past few years of U.S.-China tensions, China has been accused of engaging in unfair competition by abusing its national power, from trade and technology to COVID-19 responses. Amid such accusations, some countries have been stepping back from cooperating with China due to national security concerns. As the lockdowns have further disrupted value chains and highlighted the vulnerability of global supply chains, enhancing supply chain resilience has now become a national imperative for the U.S., Japan, and other countries, with an emphasis on strengthening their production capabilities in the semiconductor and medical care industries.
Topic:: Economics, National Security, Trade Wars, and Supply Chains
Political Geography:: China, Taiwan, Asia, North America, and United States of America

1146. The Pandemic’s Impact on Supply Chains from China and their Evolution: The View from South Korea

Author:: Jin Kyo Suh
Publication Date:: 07-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Joint U.S.-Korea Academic Studies
Institution:: Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
Abstract:: Today’s global economy is highly interconnected and interdependent. Supply chains across the world are finely tuned to deliver parts just when they are needed, so that companies and industries do not need to waste money on maintaining big warehouses. The economic system runs with remarkable efficiency, and companies are able to keep inventory to a minimum. However, firms have started rethinking their supply chains in response to changing labor costs, advances in automation, rising protectionism, and external shocks, such as natural disasters. In particular, the COVID-19 pandemic has revealed the structural fragility of current global supply chains and has forced many global enterprises to fundamentally reconsider their approach to global manufacturing and sourcing. The crisis has also highlighted geopolitical tensions, trade restrictions, and nationalist politics aimed at promoting a country’s domestic industries, which are likely to continue reshaping the global business landscape. As a consequence, most global enterprises are going to be under greater political and competitive pressure to increase their domestic production, grow employment in their home countries, and rethink their use of lean manufacturing strategies that involve minimizing the amount of inventory held in their global supply chains. Previously, supply chains were designed to keep costs low and inventories lean. However, supply chains are now being reworked to reduce the risks of future disruption even if doing so means incurring additional costs. Because China is decidedly the world’s largest goods exporter and is also currently mired in a trade conflict with the United States, supply chains going through China may be among the most vulnerable to future disruptions. Hyundai, South Korea’s largest automaker, temporarily stopped production lines at its factories in South Korea because of shortages of Chinese parts. The Hyundai shutdown—encompassing the first factory lines to be idled outside China—could foreshadow considerably more serious disruptions in the complex networks that supply automakers with essential components and materials (Automakers are especially susceptible to interruptions in the flow of goods because the industry is global, and cars are complex products with a myriad of precision parts). Recognizing the risk that dependency on China poses to national industries, some governments have offered manufacturers incentives to exit China and ease the pain of diversification. For example, Japan put $2.2 billion of its COVID-19 economic stimulus package into supporting its manufacturers moving toward shifting production outside of China. There was also mounting public pressure in some countries, such as the United States, to move essential production of pharmaceuticals and medical equipment out of China and closer to home. It is, however, not that simple to reduce global supply chain reliance on China: the nation still retains not only considerable comparative advantages in many areas (e.g. electronics, machinery, and equipment manufacturing), but also enormous purchasing power as the world’s second largest market. Even those companies that have diversified production are finding it hard to break free of China’s pervasive influence. Anticipating a rise in tariffs due to the U.S.-China trade conflict, videogame producer Nintendo shifted the manufacturing of its blockbuster gaming console called Switch to Vietnam in 2019. There was, however, a shortage of Switch consoles in stores in early 2020 due to a lack of essential components flowing to the company’s Vietnamese factories, as COVID-19 paused production of component parts by Chinese suppliers. In addition, most businesses have developed complex interdependencies, resulting in a deep tiering of supply chains. Many manufacturers depend on first-tier suppliers which, in turn, rely on a second-tier, and so on. Therefore, relocating factories or replacing all Chinese suppliers would be infeasible in the short-term. This chapter reviews the impact of supply chain disruption caused by COVID-19 on the South Korean economy and examines the future of regional supply chains centered on China. The rest of the paper is structured as follows. How supply chain disruption caused by COVID-19 will affect the South Korean economy, including trade, is discussed in Section 2. According to the latest national GDP report by the Bank of Korea (BOK), South Korea is going to see a mere 1 percent GDP contraction for 2020, the second-best performance among major economies behind only China. Reasons for why the South Korean economy was not seriously affected by the pandemic are also discussed in Section 2. Section 3 highlights the difficulty of reducing global supply chain reliance on China. China is likely to remain a key player, and the world must look at the reality that global supply chains are highly interconnected with China and that disconnecting from China’s supply chain is not an easy economic task for many multinational companies. The final section offers a few concluding remarks on deepening regionalism specifically in Asia, including policy implications for South Korea.
Topic:: Economics, COVID-19, and Supply Chains
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and South Korea

1147. The Future of U.S. Supply Chains: National Security and the Pandemic

Author:: Troy Stangarone
Publication Date:: 07-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Joint U.S.-Korea Academic Studies
Institution:: Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
Abstract:: The COVID-19 pandemic has been the most significant economic disruption to the international economy since the Great Depression. The IMF estimates that the global economy contracted by 3.5 percent last year, while the WTO has projected a 5.3 percent decline in global trade. The economic impact on the United States has been significant as well. Early in the pandemic the United States experienced shortages of critical medical supplies and products, while the need to social distance has continued to place restrictions on the overall economy. For 2020, the pandemic saw GDP decline by 2.3 percent, while exports fell by 12.9 percent and imports by 6.4 percent. All of this has resulted an increased focus on supply chains and their vulnerabilities.
Topic:: Economics, National Security, COVID-19, and Supply Chains
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

1148. Shared History, Divided Consciousness: The Origins of the Sino-ROK Cultural Clash amid the Pandemic

Author:: Dong Xiangrong
Publication Date:: 07-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Joint U.S.-Korea Academic Studies
Institution:: Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
Abstract:: Since 1992, bilateral relations between China and South Korea have sustained a state of positive development, although there have naturally been some moments of friction and contradictions. Amid the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, a number of disputes arose between netizens in China and South Korea over such things as the origin of pickled vegetables (paocai in Chinese, kimchi in Korean) and the Van Fleet award acceptance speech of South Korea’s BTS singing group. Different interpretations of a few thousand years of bilateral interactions—cultural, political, military, historical, and other topics mutually entangling the two—have led to some sharply vitriolic disputes between netizens in the two neighboring countries. Today’s tensions over national identity issues are rooted in how history is understood in the two countries and the enduring salience of cultural symbols of identity tied to history. Nobody could have anticipated that pickled vegetables would, ultimately, become a focus of the 2020 dispute between netizens of China and South Korea. Since over a decade ago when the Gangneung Danoje (端午祭) was granted UNESCO recognition and other developments occurred, all the way up to today’s pickles, it seems that almost all ongoing Sino-South Korean identity disputes are connected to the entangled histories of the two sides. Seen from the history of cultural exchanges from long ago, is traditional medicine, after all, your Chinese medicine or my Korean medicine? Is traditional dress our Han Chinese clothing or your Korean clothing? Is the May 5 festival our Duanwujie (端午節，Dragon Boat Festival) or your Danoje? Are vegetables marinated by pickling, our “paocai” or your “kimchi”? A thousand-year cultural legacy should be a factor to strengthen shared identity and tighten cultural connections in Sino-South Korea relations. However, against the current geopolitical and geo-economical background, shared cultural connections unexpectedly became the focus of contention between the two neighbors. Geopolitically, China and South Korea have been involved in different political camps since World War II. During the decades of Cold War, these two countries unfortunately fell into hot war although they were not each other’s main enemy. Each country describes the war and justifies its actions through its own lens. Was the war, after all, our “War to Resist U.S. Aggression and Aid Korea” or your “Korean War”? Different memories of the war led to widespread, fervent protest from Chinese fans against South Korea’s popular singing group BTS’s acceptance speech in receiving the Van Fleet Award by the Korea Society. Sensitivity toward remarks about the war some 70 years ago has unexpectedly heightened recently. Geo-economically, China and South Korea have been interdependent over the past three decades. China has been the biggest trade partner of South Korea for many years. The Chinese market is bigger than the U.S. and Japanese ones combined for Korean products. The market matters. The Samsung Group and Hyundai Group have had to react to the voices of customers and stop showing an advertisement performed by BTS. Also, when Seoul and Washington decided to deploy THAAD in South Korea, Seoul had to face the negative economic consequences of its deteriorating bilateral relationship with China. Both geopolitical differences and historical memories are now capable of arousing economic retaliation. This chapter analyzes from the angle of how history and the present are linked the current identity conflicts between China and South Korea. It recognizes that using today’s concepts to evaluate history leads clearly to tearing asunder Sino-South Korean mutual historical recognition. At the same time, the influence of values, geopolitics, differences in level of development, and other factors, along with cultural clashes between China and South Korea intersecting with political and security topics mutually arouse and even worsen relations between the two peoples. Security confrontations and ideological divergence have severely worsened public relations between the Chinese and South Koreans. These disputes, such as the Korean War and THAAD, have become important backdrops for the emergence and exacerbation of cultural rifts.
Topic:: Politics, Culture, History, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and South Korea

1149. The Pandemic and its Impact on the South Korea-Japan Identity Clash

Author:: Scott Snyder
Publication Date:: 07-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Joint U.S.-Korea Academic Studies
Institution:: Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
Abstract:: The global pandemic caused by the onset of the novel coronavirus known as COVID-19 has tested governance at both the national and international levels by challenging the capacity of nations to provide effective public health solutions to protect their citizenry. The pandemic has deepened preexisting international rivalries while also creating diplomatic opportunities to promote international cooperation and public diplomacy. Rather than serving as a turning point for a new era in international relations, the pandemic and the global response appear primarily to have accelerated preexisting trends. In Northeast Asia, the pandemic has accelerated deepening rivalry between the United States and China, reinforced political paralysis between Japan and South Korea, primarily by providing a pretext for privileging domestic concerns and constituencies at the expense of international relations, and has generated heightened new foreign policy challenges resulting from deepening identity-based major power rivalries. This chapter reviews the deepening of identity-based challenges facing Japan-South Korea relations prior to 2020, examines the conditions generated by leadership responses in both countries to the pandemic, identifies missed opportunities for pandemic-related cooperation between the two countries, and addresses challenges and opportunities facing the Japan-South Korea relationship in the context of anticipated recovery from the pandemic as well as the shifting geopolitical environment as tensions mount between China and the United States.
Topic:: Culture, Domestic Politics, COVID-19, and Identity
Political Geography:: Japan, Asia, South Korea, North America, and United States of America

1150. The Coronavirus: Fueling Concerns and Contrasts between India and China

Author:: Tanvi Madan
Publication Date:: 07-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Joint U.S.-Korea Academic Studies
Institution:: Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
Abstract:: On February 26, 2020, an Indian plane landed in Wuhan carrying medical supplies for China, which was then the epicenter of the COVID-19 outbreak. On its return, it evacuated a number of Indian and Bangladeshi nationals, as well as citizens of other countries. On the face of it, this is the kind of cooperative effort that is expected during a global public health crisis, with countries—even competitors—coming together at a time of need. However, the saga of that flight reflected another (prescient) dynamic—that COVID-19 would reinforce and increase rather than alleviate competition between China and India and complicate cooperation, with pandemic response and recovery efforts being seen through a competitive prism. That flight to Wuhan was not smooth; indeed, it was much delayed. Delhi had announced it a week earlier. It was a way to help China, demonstrate India’s capacity, and assist India’s neighbors by evacuating their citizens. But then Indian officials publicly, albeit anonymously, revealed that Beijing was not clearing the flight. The reason was unclear—China, after all, had been requesting international support. There also did not seem to be a bureaucratic snafu. So, was it the visual of Beijing accepting support from India, which Chinese officials and analysts sometimes dismiss as a less capable, even chaotic, neighbor? Was it the desire not to give India a soft power win, including with its neighbors? Was it because the flight involved a military transport aircraft procured from the U.S.? Was it retaliation for the temporary Indian detention of a Chinese ship bound for Pakistan due to a tip-off of dual-use items on board? Or was the reason Chinese unhappiness about Indian travel restrictions to and from China, or Indian export limits on certain medical products? Whatever the reason, China eventually gave the flight clearance, but only a week later and after much Indian negotiation. It was an early sign that the public health arena would not be immune from the competitive atmosphere prevailing between the two countries, and in the region as a whole. Subsequent events only bore that out. There has been considerable discussion about how countries’ perceptions of China would change due to the pandemic—at the beginning because of its mishandling, and then because of its recovery. This chapter argues that, rather than change perceptions, Beijing’s handling of COVID-19 increased the largely skeptical views of China that prevail in India, which had at least 29 million cases and over 385,000 deaths in India by mid-June 2021 (the 2nd and 3rd highest in the world respectively). This trend was further bolstered by the worst boundary crisis between the two countries since they fought a war in 1962. Together, the pandemic and the boundary crisis have ensured that the competitive and conflictual elements of the India-China relationship have been front and center over the last year. They have reinforced and accelerated concerns in India about China’s lack of transparency, its uncertain commitment to the rules-based order, as well as its growing influence in the Indo-Pacific and in international institutions. And they have demonstrated that despite Delhi and Beijing’s efforts to cooperate and to stabilize their relationship over the last two decades, it remains a fundamentally competitive one that can spill over into conflict. This chapter examines the impact of first the pandemic and then the boundary crisis on perceptions of China among the Indian government, establishment, and public. It proceeds to outline the consequences of these perceptions on Indian domestic policy, its partnerships with like-minded major and middle powers, and its counter-COVID activism. Finally, it considers China’s response, particularly to Indian policy changes.
Topic:: Bilateral Relations, Culture, Domestic Politics, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: China, South Asia, India, and Asia

1151. The Russo-U.S. National Identity Gap and the Indo-Pacific in 2021

Author:: Gilbert Rozman
Publication Date:: 07-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Joint U.S.-Korea Academic Studies
Institution:: Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
Abstract:: The start of the Biden administration demonstrated how far Russo-U.S. relations had sunk. On the heels of the massive cyber-hacking of U.S. government files, attributed to Russia, hearings for Biden’s appointees showcased harsh accusations. These were compounded by the arrest of Aleksey Navalny on his return to Moscow from convalescence in Germany after a near fatal poisoning in Russia, arousing severe rebukes in the U.S. Meanwhile, Russian officials and news sources attacked Biden personally as senile or a figurehead, a flawed U.S. system of democracy as a farce and dysfunctional, and U.S. plotting through Navalny as aimed at taking down Putin. Mutual accusations intensified in mid-March 2021 when Biden responded to a query whether he considered Putin a killer by saying, “I do,” which reverberated in sharp retorts by Putin and from many in Russia. In late April, as Russia massed troops on Ukraine’s border, Biden placed new sanctions on Russia, and Russian language grew even more threatening, relations had sunk even further. If there was no direct focus on the Indo-Pacific in such vitriolic exchanges, that can be seen elsewhere, especially in a further tilt toward China in a reputed “strategic triangle.” The Indo-Pacific is where relations between Moscow and Washington have the most potential, spared of the quandaries of NATO expansion and Soviet nostalgia over a sphere of influence or Middle East intrigues leading to shifting alliances. Many in Washington thought that a win-win scenario could be achieved if Moscow accepted integration into a dynamic region, a balance of power welcoming Beijing’s rise but preventing it from domination, the denuclearization and stabilization of Pyongyang, and breakthroughs in bilateral relations with Tokyo and Seoul. All of these objectives appeared consistent with Russian aspirations in the early 1990s, but they were thwarted by the national identity that was being reconstructed in the following quarter century, especially under Vladimir Putin from the mid-2000s. Cooperation in the Indo-Pacific proved to be a casualty of Russian thinking toward the United States, most of all, but also toward China, North Korea, South Korea, Japan, and India. The Russo-U.S. identity gap has widened further in 2021. As Dmitry Medvedev wrote on January 16, the relations of Moscow and Beijing with the new U.S. administration are likely to remain extremely cold after years in which the trajectory of relations between Washington and Moscow had already been heading steadfastly downhill. Russo-U.S. bilateral relations and conflicting agendas in Europe and the Middle East draw avid interest, but the Indo-Pacific appears to be an inconsequential factor in their sharp rivalry. Nor do their differences in this region appear to have much significance for the development of the area, where China casts a broad shadow and U.S. alliances and partnerships are being renewed. To argue to the contrary leads one down several possible pathways: 1) this is the one promising arena for rebuilding relations; 2) Russia has a special role to play, distinct from China’s, due to its ties to India, North Korea, or ASEAN; 3) continued strengthening of Sino-Russian ties adds an element of concern for U.S. policies in the Indo-Pacific; or 4) Russia’s animus toward the U.S. may find an unexpected outlet in this region. Whichever pathway is explored, it is important to grasp how Russians perceive this region and its various sub-regions, while keeping in mind the context of the broader clash of national identities severely affecting the Russo-U.S. relationship. In this chapter, I offer an overview of the Russo-U.S. identity gap, turn to Russian thinking about the Biden administration, review Russian national identity, focus on aspects of Sino-Russian ties and their identity gap, subsequently shift to how Russians have viewed other parts of Asia of late, and conclude with an assessment of the prospects for Russo-U.S. relations in the region.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Culture, Domestic Politics, and Identity
Political Geography:: Russia, United States of America, and Indo-Pacific

1152. The Sino–U.S. National Identity Gap and Bilateral Relations

Author:: Danielle Cohen
Publication Date:: 07-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Joint U.S.-Korea Academic Studies
Institution:: Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
Abstract:: The national identity gap between China and the United States has become increasingly apparent. Under Xi Jinping, China has sought to reclaim its historical greatness and proclaimed itself to be a responsible great power that offers a credible alternative to Western values, while also promoting increasingly authoritarian policies at home, complete with extensive repression in Xinjiang and renewed state control of the economy. Assertions of U.S. national identity were somewhat muted under Donald Trump, confused by the battle between those who supported the administration’s “America First” policy, its transactional approach to foreign affairs, and its deemphasis on human rights and democracy promotion in U.S. foreign policy, and those who worried about the global repercussions of an isolationist, nativist policy. For a time, the United States seemed more preoccupied with its trade war with China than with claims that the United States should act as the global protector of human rights and democracy. The COVID-19 pandemic further complicated already tense Sino–U.S. relations and called both countries’ national identities into question. While China had, as of spring 2021, succeeded in keeping its COVID-19 outbreak remarkably small, the damage caused by its initial suppression of medical reports, along with successful virus mitigation in a number of non-authoritarian states, called into question its claim to be a responsible world power on the basis of its pandemic performance. Meanwhile, the Trump administration failed to protect U.S. citizens from catastrophic death tolls and prevented the United States from taking a leading role in resolving this global crisis. In January 2021, the Biden administration took office with a focus on swiftly ending the pandemic, while also reasserting the traditional U.S. global leadership role. When combined with its assessment of U.S. power after the 2008 Global Financial Crisis and of U.S. domestic social and political instability evident throughout 2020-2021, the pandemic has strengthened China’s perceptions of the United States as a country in decline, and of China as a “risen” great power that should now play a major role in shaping the global order. At the same time, although U.S. policy towards China remains firm despite the presidential transition, the underlying rationale has shifted from the “America First” approach of the Trump administration to the democratic values-infused approach of the Biden administration. As the world struggles to move beyond the pandemic, the national identities of China and the United States are increasingly defined in opposition to each other and seem likely to drive an ever more challenging bilateral relationship in the coming years.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Culture, and Domestic Politics
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

1153. The Pandemic as a Geopolitical Game Changer in the Indo-Pacific: The View from Japan

Author:: Glen S. Fukushima
Publication Date:: 07-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Joint U.S.-Korea Academic Studies
Institution:: Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
Abstract:: The coronavirus pandemic that struck in late 2019 has affected the world profoundly, and Japan is no exception. But the direct impact on Japan has been relatively small considering the number of cases of infections and deaths relative to the size of Japan’s population, particularly considering its elderly population and high density. For instance, among the G7 countries, Japan has had the fewest cases of infections (4,690 per million population as of May 2, 2021) compared to 32,276 in Canada, 40,620 in Germany, 64,804 in the United Kingdom, 66,828 in Italy, 86,283 in France, and 99,652 in the United States. Similarly, among the G7 countries, Japan has had by far the fewest number of deaths (81 per million population as of May 2, 2021) compared to 638 in Canada, 996 in Germany, 1,601 in France, 1,776 in the United States, 1,870 in the United Kingdom, and 2,004 in Italy. This chapter argues that although the direct disruptions to Japan resulting from the pandemic have been less than to the other G7 countries, the effect of the pandemic on other nations with strong geopolitical importance to Japan—in particular, the United States and China—coupled with changes in Japan’s domestic political and economic environment have accelerated changes in geopolitical posture and direction that were already in progress in Japan. The fundamental geopolitical challenge facing Japan is how to ensure its military security, political independence, and economic prosperity in the face of a less reliable and less predictable United States and a more powerful and more assertive China. For Japan, the ideal resolution of this challenge is to maintain positive and constructive relations with both countries, while recognizing the reality that even as economic ties with China—whether in trade, investment, finance, tourism, or the exchange of people—are growing relative to ties with the United States, political and security ties (and the sharing of common values) with the United States remain the centerpiece of Japan’s foreign policy. Given this context, it is only natural that Japan would seek to diversify and strengthen its relationships with other countries, regions, economic arrangements, and international organizations and institutions. This diversification, which could be seen since the end of the Cold War in the early 1990s, has gained momentum in recent years, and the pandemic has served only to accelerate it. The analysis proceeds through the examination of the following: 1) pandemic chronology; 2) Japan’s domestic politics; 3) relations with the United States; 4) relations with China; 5) Japan’s diversification strategy; and 6) conclusions.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, Geopolitics, and Economy
Political Geography:: Japan and Asia

1154. How COVID-19 Has Affected the Geopolitics of Korea

Author:: Jung-Yeop Woo
Publication Date:: 07-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Joint U.S.-Korea Academic Studies
Institution:: Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
Abstract:: COVID-19 has not gone away, and observers are now discussing possible long-term effects of the pandemic, including on geopolitics. A report by the European Parliament discussed five COVID-generated factors that could impact the geopolitical environment, i.e., supply chains, health multilateralism, digital diplomacy, climate change, and democratic activism. It predicted a reshuffling of value chains, where cooperation within the same “bloc” would be strengthened, while states continue their reshoring efforts, consequently shifting the current geopolitical environment. The report pointed out that the pandemic necessitated thorough scientific cooperation and information sharing beyond the level that the WHO had initially offered, suggesting changes in patterns of behavior, as in adapting to digital platforms while opening opportunities for nations to counter climate change and strengthen their geopolitical positions. Moreover, it also looked at the number of protests resulting from the pandemic and its economic effects and suggested that such pressure would encourage governments to mollify inequality. Missing is optimism that countries will be stirred to pursue common interests. Missing too is the geopolitical fallout from acutely worsening Sino-U.S. relations, as in South Korea, which stands at the forefront of states facing pressure from both sides. With the unforeseen disruption in both global and domestic economies, much attention has been paid to the effect of COVID-19 on the economic side rather than the political side, perhaps because many did not expect that the pandemic would last this long. However, recent disruptions are clearly rife with serious political implications, both domestically and globally. Above all, as seen from Seoul, their impact on the relationship between Beijing and Washington demonstrated how much the economic forces could spill into geopolitics. Koreans follow this impact attentively, realizing that worsening Sino-U.S. ties may reverberate on one or both powers, increasing pressure on Seoul’s efforts to sustain a precarious balance for the sake of its North Korean policy and its hope for regional stability. Many nations in the Indo-Pacific have recently struggled between the United States and China, trying to find the most advantageous equilibrium between security and economy. South Korea has uniquely stood on the frontlines, as in 2016-17 when it bowed to the U.S. and deployed the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) missile defense targeting North Korea, which was met with strong Chinese pressure—strict economic sanctions through unofficial channels and demands to promise the “three noes” that restricted further missile defense deployment to deescalate the tension. President Biden’s new measures to bridge security and economy through multilateralism call for Seoul to choose between acceding to U.S. requests or risking China’s threats to respond aggressively—even as some anti-THAAD sanctions remain in place. President Xi Jinping’s warnings point to China’s harsh response. South Korean concerns have grown because of the relationship between the current global supply chains and geopolitics, which is a preoccupation of the Biden administration. Situated at the juncture of supply networks centering around China, South Korea’s economy is almost certain to be heavily hit. Furthermore, the pandemic brought ongoing pressures for de-globalization and de-dollarization to the forefront with major ramifications for Seoul. Much of the anxiety has focused on the geopolitics of deteriorating relations between Beijing and Washington. The former is warning Seoul against joining the Quad, agreeing to trilateralism with Japan and the U.S., and tilting the balance away from China in the Sino-U.S.-ROK triangle. Meanwhile, the Biden administration, even before it clarifies its regional strategy, is nudging Seoul in precisely the opposite direction. The year 2020 raised challenging issues for Seoul, which loom in 2021 as more severe geopolitical tests for the Moon administration. To properly gauge the effect of COVID-19 on South Korea’s geopolitics, it is crucial to understand the world before the pandemic. Has COVID-19 functioned as an independent variable in South Korean geopolitics? If there is a discernable difference, we have to see whether that difference was caused by COVID-19. This paper proceeds in four parts: 1) outlining the pre-pandemic status quo up until 2020; 2) assessing how COVID-19 affected international geopolitics; 3) examining how it influenced South Korea’s supply chain and geopolitics; and 4) analyzing ongoing discourse on South Korea’s strategic choice amid the U.S.-China rivalry. These sections are followed by brief conclusions on implications for policy choices.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, Geopolitics, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Asia and South Korea

1155. China, ASEAN, and the Covid-19 Pandemic

Author:: Joseph Chinyong Liow
Publication Date:: 07-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Joint U.S.-Korea Academic Studies
Institution:: Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
Abstract:: For Southeast Asia, the COVID-19 pandemic was not only a public health crisis. It also provided an occasion for China to deepen its engagement in the region by dint of its own successful containment of the virus within its borders, and the resources it possessed to extend help to regional countries battling COVID-19 and its consequences, including economic, on their own shores. While Chinese help was welcomed, Southeast Asia also sought to avoid being beholden to any single external power. To that end, Southeast Asian states have actively pursued such diversification not only through efforts at reinforcing cooperation within ASEAN but also by using ASEAN as a vehicle to engage external powers. At the end of 2019, Chinese health authorities reported a cluster of pneumonia cases that had emerged in Wuhan, in the province of Hubei, which eventually led to the confirmation of a novel coronavirus. Several weeks later in January, the pandemic struck Southeast Asian shores when the first case outside of China was detected in Thailand. Within a few months, the world found itself in the grip of a global pandemic. By the end of January 2021, there were more than 100 million recorded cases of the COVID-19 infection, with over two million deaths. While the fatality rates are lower than those of previous pandemics of the SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome) strain, it has by far been the most infectious, prompting Singapore foreign minister Vivian Balakrishnan to opine that with the pandemic “we are facing a global life and death crisis which requires extraordinary measures.” Threats posed by pandemics are not new to Southeast Asia. In the last two decades alone, the region had been beset by several transnational health crises, of which SARS and the H5N1 Avian Flu were arguably the most lethal. What is striking about the current climate, however, is the backdrop against which the pandemic is playing out: the COVID-19 pandemic has hastened the further bifurcation of an international order that was already threatening to come undone because of the intensification of Sino-U.S. rivalry and American withdrawal from multilateralism under Donald J. Trump. Southeast Asian states found themselves increasingly compelled to reassess their relationships with external powers. Taking the present pandemic as a point of entry, this paper considers its impact on Southeast Asia’s relations with China and the U.S. The paper makes three main arguments. First, it contends that Sino-U.S. rivalry has sharpened over the COVID-19 pandemic by dint of the politicization of this public health crisis by both parties. Second, it argues that China has identified and seized upon opportunities presented by the pandemic to enhance its regional and global standing through continued support for multilateralism and economic engagement through initiatives such as the BRI, in turn creating favorable conditions for the advancement of its foreign policy interests. Conversely, because of the severe deficiencies in how the Trump administration handled the pandemic domestically, the Biden administration will have to prioritize its domestic challenges at the expense of greater bandwidth and resources for foreign policy, especially in Southeast Asia, a region that since the end of the Vietnam War has never featured prominently in Washington’s pursuit of its overseas interests. Third, it posits that while Southeast Asia has doubtless benefited from Chinese support during this crisis, the region remains skeptical of Chinese strategic intent and concerned about overreliance. States have tried to diversify relations with regional powers while strengthening cooperation within ASEAN. The paper first looks, by way of background, at how the pandemic emerged as the latest arena of Sino-U.S. rivalry. It then explores how China has handled the pandemic domestically, where its success has allowed it to expand its influence as a putative provider of “global public goods.” In the interest of brevity, the paper then focuses on ASEAN by documenting collective regional efforts and strategies to navigate great power rivalry in the realm of global public health.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, ASEAN, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: China and Asia

1156. The COVID-19 Pandemic and Geopolitics in the Indo-Pacific: A View from the United States

Author:: Jacques deLisle
Publication Date:: 07-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Joint U.S.-Korea Academic Studies
Institution:: Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
Abstract:: The COVID-19 pandemic poses significant geopolitical challenges and presents opportunities for the United States in the Indo-Pacific. The Trump administration bungled the crisis, damaging the U.S.’s standing as a paragon of competence in public health, and functional governance more generally. The international face of the U.S. response deepened preexisting concerns—especially significant in the Indo-Pacific—that the U.S. had retreated from its post-Second World War and post-Cold War role of providing international public goods and leadership and supporting international institutions. Opportunities for the U.S. amid the crisis and in its aftermath stem primarily from shortcomings or unappealing features in China’s handling of the epidemic, and stumbles in China’s self-presentation as a provider of foreign assistance and international cooperation, and from U.S. policies—many of them embraced by the Biden administration—that could correct missteps and ameliorate trends that have diminished U.S. standing (especially during Donald Trump’s presidency). For the U.S. to reap potential gains, it also must adapt its policies to the implications of some Indo-Pacific states’ comparatively successful responses to the pandemic, and the pandemic-spotlighted nature of contemporary international problems.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, Foreign Policy, Domestic Politics, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: United States of America and Indo-Pacific

1157. The Pandemic as a Geopolitical Gamechanger in the Indo-Pacific: The View from China

Author:: Yun Sun
Publication Date:: 07-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Joint U.S.-Korea Academic Studies
Institution:: Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
Abstract:: How has the COVID-19 pandemic reshaped or influenced China’s geopolitical outlook and its grand strategy for the years to come? This is a question that will determine China’s relationship with the United States, the Indo-Pacific region, and the rest of the world. In the Chinese strategic community, the pandemic has been regarded as a “watershed” event that has reshaped the structure of the international system and the power equilibrium. Its importance is elevated to the same status as the end of World War II, which determined the bipolar international system between the U.S. and the Soviet Union, and the end of the Cold War which began thirty years of U.S. hegemony in a unipolar world. Although China began as a sheer loser in the pandemic given its culpability in the origin of COVID and its early poor management of the domestic spread of the disease, Beijing believes that it has eventually emerged as a pure winner in the pandemic: the relative gain China has made vis-à-vis the U.S.’s bigger losses in disease control, national power, economic growth, global leadership, and credibility has strengthened Chinese confidence that the tide is turning in China’s favor. The “effectiveness” of the Chinese political system, as manifested in its domestic disease control, has reinforced China’s ideological conviction of its superiority. As China uses COVID diplomacy to demonstrate the superiority and desirability of its political system, the pandemic is perceived as an opportunity for it to shape the new international order and promote China’s desired “Community of Common Destiny.” Challenges remain, as the U.S. revamps its alliance system under the Biden administration and as regional powers and Western countries grow increasingly concerned and anxious about China’s growing confidence and capabilities. However, for China, the pandemic has been a great opportunity, and China has emerged from it as a pure winner. It is an interesting question as to how the pandemic has changed the nature and the dynamics of the great power competition between the U.S. and China. Most would agree that the pandemic exacerbated, accelerated, and aggravated the deterioration of relations that the U.S. and China had already been experiencing before 2020. However, the differences lie in the degree, intensity, velocity, and extensiveness of the damage. Without the pandemic, the downward slope U.S. and China had already been on would not have come to a state of “freefall” in 2020. And that “freefall” period has long-lasting and significant implications for their bilateral relations in the post-COVID world. The damaged trust, confidence, and credibility, and the deeply entrenched sense of hostility, or even antagonism, have made any effort to repair the relations extremely difficult, if not completely impossible. And this reality will affect the regional dynamics in the Indo-Pacific region for the many years and decades to come.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, Foreign Policy, Geopolitics, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, United States of America, and Indo-Pacific

1158. The Big Squeeze: Japanese Supply Chains and Great Power Competition

Author:: Mireya Solis
Publication Date:: 07-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Joint U.S.-Korea Academic Studies
Institution:: Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
Abstract:: Japan led, and was transformed, by the global supply chain revolution. Facing growing protectionism in industrialized markets and reeling from sharp yen appreciation in the aftermath of the 1985 Plaza Accord, Japanese firms responded with a drastic increase in their overseas investment activities. In so doing, many of these companies spearheaded the movement towards the fragmentation of production across national boundaries that sought efficiency gains by pooling the competitive advantages of different locations. Japan’s experience with the first supply chain revolution was transformative. It altered its export-led model with important implications for its foreign policy. Japanese investments in the United States helped abate trade frictions; integrated production was at the heart of the project to rebuild relations with China, and Japan’s lead as foreign investor in Southeast Asia has been a pillar of its blueprint for regional integration. The strains in the rules-based international trade order, however, have raised questions about the ability of global supply chains to continue to operate effectively. The U.S.-China geopolitical rivalry has manifested in a damaging trade war, and moves to restrict tech flows are creating decoupling pressures. The COVID-19 pandemic has exacerbated these trends with lockdowns that disrupt supply chains while export protectionism and calls to renationalize production are on the rise. The intensified risk environment could lead to a second supply chain revolution with a greater emphasis on redundancy and diversification and bifurcation of productive chains. How will Japan respond to the challenges to international production, a central engine of its economic prosperity, and with what consequences for its relations with major powers? To provide greater clarity on this overarching question, this paper is organized as follows. Section 1 describes the central role of Japanese firms in the emergence and deepening of regional production networks. Although Japan’s overall share of intra-regional trade has decreased in the 21st century—in tandem with China’s rise as regional hub- Japanese firms have retained their central role in GVCs (Global Value Chains) through their advanced manufacturing capabilities. Section 2 offers a glimpse of past and recent supply chain shocks—China’s embargo of rare earth metals, the Great East Japan Earthquake in Tohoku, and the Japan-Korea export control dispute—to illustrate both sources of vulnerability and resilience of Japanese GVCs. Section 3 assesses the systemic shift brought about by revived great power competition, and identifies some early adjustment responses from Japanese firms to a new normal of heightened geopolitical tension.
Topic:: Economics, Strategic Competition, and Supply Chains
Political Geography:: Japan, China, and Asia

1159. Baku Dialogues

Author:: Fariz Ismailzade
Publication Date:: 10-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Baku Dialogues
Institution:: ADA University
Abstract:: “Baku Dialogues” is a series of events featuring leading world personalities who will address subjects of current international interest by presenting their views and participating in discussion of these subjects with interested Azerbaijani and international figures. These presentations and discussions, along with other submissions, will be recorded in the “Baku Dialogues”, ADA University’s new journal of record for academic and policy research.
Topic:: Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Politics, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Global Focus

1160. ‘Azeri’ vs. ‘Azerbaijani’ Language and Identity in Nation-building

Author:: Jala Garibova
Publication Date:: 08-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Baku Dialogues
Institution:: ADA University
Abstract:: Whether in everyday conversations, media discussions, or social media, not infrequently do we hear assorted debates regarding the use of the term ‘Azeri’ in reference to the titular ethnic group and the titular language of the Republic of Azerbaijan (as well as those who belong to this same group and speak this same language beyond its borders). While the use of ‘Azeri’—although restricted to certain domains—can be traced back many years, debates around the use of this term (and its derivatives) have intensified within the framework of national revival tendencies in post‑Soviet Azerbaijan
Topic:: Nationalism, Language, Identity, and Nation Building
Political Geography:: Asia and Azerbaijan

1161. Achieving Full Resolution to the Karabakh Conflict

Author:: Steven J. Klein
Publication Date:: 08-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Baku Dialogues
Institution:: ADA University
Abstract:: Azerbaijan’s decisive defeat of Armenia in the Second Karabakh War is certainly cause for optimism that any remaining issues between the two countries can be resolved through diplomacy rather than military might. After all, Azerbaijan managed to recover all the territories outside the Karabakh enclave captured and occupied by Armenia since the 1990s—as well as parts of the former Nagorno‑Karabakh Autonomous Oblast itself—in addition to forcing Armenia to withdraw all its troops from sovereign Azerbaijani territory. However, past indisputable successes in other conflicts indicate that Azerbaijan must be careful not to overestimate its capabilities to translate the recent military triumph into full resolution of the Nagorno‑ Karabakh conflict. While it is tempting to declare the conflict over and to talk strictly of post‑conflict construction and development, a handful of countries have painfully learned that such declarations can be premature. For instance, in August 1982 Israeli Prime Minister Menachem Begin predicted that the imminent defeat of the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) in Lebanon portended 40 years of peace; and in May 2003 U.S. President George W. Bush declared “Mission Accomplished” after ousting Saddam Hussein from power in Iraq. Both of these declarations came back to haunt the respective countries that had believed they had put behind them the conflict at issue. The crucial element that both of the aforementioned leaders had missed was that they did not control completely the fate of the conflict they chose to treat as being resolved. In Israel’s case, the PLO relocated to Tunis, from where it was able to rebuild its power base and receive support from the Soviet Union, while Hezbollah—which didn’t even exist at the time of the defeat of the PLO in 1982—arose with the support of Iran to become a much more formidable and menacing force in southern Lebanon than the PLO had been. In the case of America’s wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, the resulting power vacuum allowed numerous external forces to enter the picture and disrupt the plans of the United States. Moreover, corruption and disorganization within the governments established with American help contributed to the deterioration of stability in the region.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Military Strategy, Conflict, and Peace
Political Geography:: Europe, Asia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan

1162. Spotlight on Normalization Armenian-Azerbaijani Relations in the Wake of the Second Karabakh War

Author:: Gulshan Pashayeva
Publication Date:: 08-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Baku Dialogues
Institution:: ADA University
Abstract:: More than half a year has passed since the end of the Second Karabakh War and the signing of the Moscow‑brokered trilateral statement by the President of the Republic of Azerbaijan, the Prime Minister of the Republic of Armenia, and the President of the Russian Federation on a complete ceasefire and a cessation of all hostilities in the zone of the Nagorno‑Karabakh conflict. These developments have ended the almost 30‑year‑long illegal Armenian occupation, restoring Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity. They have also contributed to the ultimate implementation of numerous decisions and resolutions adopted by various international organizations, including four resolutions of the UN Security Council (822, 853, 874, and 884) demanding the immediate, complete, and unconditional withdrawal of Armenian armed forces from the occupied Azerbaijani territories. At the same time, a new political reality has emerged in the region as a result of the war. This has brought about at least seven implications:
Topic:: Conflict, Peace, Normalization, and Rivalry
Political Geography:: Europe, Asia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan

1163. Winning the Peace Azerbaijan’s Karabakh Reintegration Challenges

Author:: F. Murat Ozkaleli
Publication Date:: 08-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Baku Dialogues
Institution:: ADA University
Abstract:: The Karabakh conflict was not resolved peacefully. Decades of unfruitful negotiations held under the auspices of the Co‑chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group (France, Russia, and the United States) produced no diplomatic solution. The 30‑year‑long stalemate ended when Azerbaijan re‑gained its occupied territories with a decisive military victory after 44 days of fighting. After the Second Karabakh War, Azerbaijan restored its territorial integrity in conformity with four UN Security Council resolutions. Formally, Azerbaijan’s sovereignty over all Karabakh was restored through the signing of a trilateral settlement that was reached between Azerbaijan and Armenia on November 10th, 2010, with Russia being the facilitator and third signatory. The settlement, which is more than a conventional truce but less than a full peace agreement, ensured the return of the remaining five occupied Azerbaijani areas immediately. A five‑kilometer‑wide corridor connecting Armenia to Karabakh was opened through Lachin, with control granted to a newly‑established Russian peacekeeping force, which also took over control of Khankendi and some surrounding areas populated by ethnic‑Armenians. Despite some delays, the trilateral settlement is being enforced and the Armenian occupation of 20 percent of Azerbaijani territories came to an end in early 2021. Other provisions of the settlement, such as the establishment of the free movement of all Azerbaijani persons, services, and capital to the region, is to follow.
Topic:: Diplomacy, United Nations, Conflict, Peace, and Reintegration
Political Geography:: Europe, Asia, and Azerbaijan

1164. Georgia After the Second Karabakh War

Author:: Mamuka Tsereteli
Publication Date:: 08-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Baku Dialogues
Institution:: ADA University
Abstract:: The outcome of the Second Karabakh War between Azerbaijan and Armenia significantly transformed the geopolitical reality in the South Caucasus, with implications for the wider Black Sea‑Caspian region. The unsettled political geography of the South Caucasus and the ethno‑political separatism fueled by external actors since the early 1990s left bleeding wounds on the bodies of the newly re‑emerged sovereign states of Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia. These conflicts have determined the trajectory of the geopolitical developments of the region for the last 30 years, including on the foreign policy orientations of these new states. The conflicts in the South Caucasus were the primary challenge for transforming the strategic assets of this region into greater political and economic success. Three major conflict areas in the South Caucasus were former autonomous regions, created in the early Soviet period: Nagorno‑Karabakh, Abkhazia, and the Tskhinvali region, what was called South Ossetia. (Briefly: the latter term was introduced by the Soviets in the 1920s as a name for the newly created autonomous area in Georgia, populated by Ossetians alongside ethnic Georgians. The historic homeland of Ossetians is located to the north of the Greater Caucasus mountains. Following the Soviet tradition of planting ethno‑political time bombs, Ossetia proper—located in the Russian Federation—was named North Ossetia, while the Tskhinvali region of Georgia—with the Ossetian population at the time concentrated in the border areas with Russia—was named South Ossetia.) As of today, all three of these areas are self‑proclaimed independent states, are formally ruled by de facto governments, and saw fierce military confrontation in the early 1990s. In 2008, the Tskhinvali region became the battleground between Russian and Georgian forces. In 2020, Azerbaijan regained through a combination of military action and diplomatic brinksmanship all seven regions outside of Nagorno‑ Karabakh that had been occupied by Armenia, as well as one‑third of the former Nagorno‑Karabakh region. In the case of Abkhazia and the Tskhinvali region/South Ossetia, as of mid‑2021, these territories remain, in reality, governed by Russian occupational forces. The Russian military influence was inserted into Karabakh after the war that ended on November 10th, 2020, with Russian peacekeepers playing an increasing role in the governance of the region. In terms of geopolitical orientation, Armenia willingly allowed Russian troops onto its territory, seeing them as a security guarantee and deterrent against Azerbaijan. Georgia aligned itself with the Western powers, determined to join NATO and the EU. The conflicts on Georgian territory are seen as punishment from Russia for Georgia’s pro‑Western focus. As a result, there has been a heavy Russian military presence in the separatist areas of Georgia since the Russian invasion to Georgia in 2008.
Topic:: Security, Economics, Military Strategy, Conflict, and Peace
Political Geography:: Europe, Asia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia

1165. What Do Energy Sanctions Say About the World?

Author:: Aurelie Bros
Publication Date:: 08-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Baku Dialogues
Institution:: ADA University
Abstract:: Statecraft is often understood as the art of conducting state affairs in order to exert a direct influence on other actors in the international system in order to get them to do what they would not do otherwise. To achieve their goals, policymakers are able to employ a variety of levers such as diplomacy, propaganda, military statecraft, and economic statecraft. According to Elizabeth Ellis of the Inter‑ Disciplinary Ethics Applied Centre of the University of Leeds, the latter category encompasses all economic means—including recourse to economic sanctions— that might be used by international actors with the intention of (i) preventing objectionable policy or behavior, (ii) sending a message, or (iii) punishing unlawful policy or behavior. Princeton University’s David A. Baldwin wrote in 1985 that economic sanctions are divided into two main categories: those with a punitive function and those aimed at encouraging or rewarding. He also noted that they impact trade (e.g. embargo, quotas, and (un)favorable tariff discriminations) as well as capital (e.g. aid suspension, controls on imports or exports, and (dis)advantageous taxation), and that they can be used wisely or unwisely, justly or unjustly, depending on the situation at hand. Although economic sanctions have a long history, with origins in Antiquity, they are unequally distributed over time. For example, their use greatly increased during the post‑World War II era, especially in the energy sector. This increasing use of energy sanctions has been particularly noticeable since the early 1970s. Over the past several decades, they have essentially become a way for energy producers and consumers to exert disapproval over one another and to weaken those considered to be morally responsible for objectionable policies (not always related to energy issues). Energy sanctions, therefore, are often paired with non‑energy economic sanctions targeting a large array of goods and services. For example, an oil embargo can take place in tandem with nuclear‑related sanctions aimed at stopping military use of civilian nuclear power technology—as in the Iranian case. Energy sanctions are always deeply rooted in a wider political and economic environment, reflecting the global order of their time. This essay will focus mainly on the bipolar international system led by the United States and the Soviet Union between 1947 and 1991, which was followed by a post‑Cold War international system in which the United States assumed the role of the world’s leading power, supported by Western‑dominated organizations. Nevertheless, this unipolar, rules‑based order is now under pressure, perhaps even duress—some argue it is coming to an end.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Energy Policy, Sanctions, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Global Focus

1166. The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor

Author:: Ali Haider Saleem and Arhama Siddiqa
Publication Date:: 08-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Baku Dialogues
Institution:: ADA University
Abstract:: The term Silk Road is used by scholars to describe a network of trading posts and markets linking East Asia to the Mediterranean. In terms of geographical context, the editors of Baku Dialogues define the region as the “geographic space looking west past Anatolia to the warm seas beyond; north across the Caspian towards the Great Plain and the Great Steppe; east to the peaks of the Altai and the arid sands of the Taklamakan; and south towards the Hindu Kush and the Indus valley, looping down around in the direction of the Persian Gulf and across the Fertile Crescent.” States falling under this parasol include China, Pakistan, Iran, Turkey, the five Central Asian republics, Azerbaijan, and Russia. China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which traverses several continents, is a long‑term, strategic investment plan with the objective of facilitating economic integration of countries in line with the historic Silk Road. In April 2015, China’s President, Xi Jinping announced the China‑Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), which amounts to BRI’s flagship project. This enterprise, which encompasses road, rail, and oil pipeline links, will help Beijing advance its influence across South and Central Asia.
Topic:: Economics, International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, Bilateral Relations, Infrastructure, and Silk Road
Political Geography:: Pakistan, China, and Asia

1167. Azerbaijan’s Pathways After the Second Karabakh War

Author:: Laurence Broers
Publication Date:: 04-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Baku Dialogues
Institution:: ADA University
Abstract:: n the aftermath of the Second Karabakh War, Azerbaijan stands at a critical moment in its history. The war has resolved many of the issues driving Azerbaijani grievances over the last three decades. Yet it leaves others both unresolved and entangled within a new regional configuration that more than ever hinges on the interactions of external great powers and the fractured local politics of the South Caucasus. The regionalization of the Armenian‑Azerbaijani conflict— meaning its transition to a Russian‑Turkish condominium— ultimately links the conflict to the vagaries of what Pavel Baev and Kemal Kirişci call the “serpentine” relations between Moscow and Ankara in the era of Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Vladimir Putin. The conflict is now one link in a string of conflict theatres where Russia and Turkey are involved, and across which Moscow and Ankara may negotiate trade‑offs that have little to do with the interests of local parties. To be sure, Azerbaijan’s closeness to Turkey assuages concerns over Russian influence for now. And the strategic, rather than tactical, outlook on Azerbaijani‑Turkish partnership means that few in Azerbaijan believe that Turkey would ever engage in trade‑offs that cross Azerbaijani red lines. This belief is reflected in the experience of the Turkish‑ Armenian “football diplomacy” normalization initiative that took place in in 2008‑2009. Nevertheless, while the Armenian‑Azerbaijani conflict is now seen by many in Azerbaijan as resolved, it has in fact been repackaged and embedded in a new, highly complex, and unpredictable web of linkages.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Conflict, Peace, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Europe, Asia, and Azerbaijan

1168. From Struggle to Permanent Failure Why the Karabakh Attempt at Secession Failed

Author:: Azer Babayev
Publication Date:: 04-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Baku Dialogues
Institution:: ADA University
Abstract:: After 44 days of fighting, the Second Karabakh War came to an end on 10 November 2020 as a result of a Russian‑brokered ceasefire agreement. The most important questions here appear to be: what led to this dangerous military escalation, and what does it mean for the conflict, given that it seems to have now entered into a (new) political phase, again? In the declining Soviet Union, what was originally a status dispute over the autonomous Nagorno‑Karabakh region escalated into an international violent conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan in the early 1990s. Following the end of a bloody war in 1994 (the First Karabakh War, 1992‑ 1994), a fragile situation around the conflict region took root: the “frozen conflict,” as it came to be known, lasted for nearly three decades and led to conditions of neither war nor peace. And during this period, it was feared that the longer the sides had to wait for a peace agreement to be reached, the more likely the conflict would re‑escalate and eventually erupt again into a hot war. As it turned out, this is exactly what happened: an all‑out six‑week war erupted again unexpectedly between the conflict parties in late September 2020, and, as a result, the Armenian side more or less capitulated. But first things first: in the First Karabakh War, Azerbaijan suffered a major defeat, ceding to Armenian forces not only the secessionist region itself but also seven surrounding territories. These other lands were, as a whole, twice the size of Nagorno‑ Karabakh itself and contained five times the old oblast’s population, the entirety of which was expelled by the time an armistice was signed in 1994. And that is why during this war the UN Security Council responded by passing four resolutions demanding the withdrawal of Armenian forces from the occupied areas of Azerbaijan. However, the UN resolutions failed to have any effect. Since that time, no international protagonists felt a strong, compelling need to try to resolve the Nagorno‑ Karabakh conflict. In addition, all international actors dismissed the idea of “power mediation.” Moreover, although Russia as a key international actor is directly involved in all the conflicts on the territory of the former Soviet Union, its involvement in the Nagorno‑Karabakh dispute has been rather indirect: in the Karabakh case, Moscow has been both a critical and a questionable actor. On the one hand, the Kremlin has taken a central position in mediating a peaceful settlement to the conflict while, on the other hand, it has been delivering weapons to both sides. This last represents perhaps the most striking situation regarding the international dimension of the conflict. Russia is militarily allied with Armenia and has a military presence in the country. It has provided security guarantees to Yerevan, primarily through their shared membership in the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), which neutralized to a certain extent the potential effects of Russian arms being sold to financially strong Azerbaijan on a purely commercial basis.
Topic:: Security, War, Conflict, and Peace
Political Geography:: Europe, Asia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan

1169. Hydrocarbon Energy Complexes Central Eurasian Keystone Triangles

Author:: Robert M. Cutler
Publication Date:: 04-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Baku Dialogues
Institution:: ADA University
Abstract:: The editorial statement of Baku Dialogues posits a certain geographic definition of what is called the “Silk Road Region,” namely “the geographic space looking west past Anatolia to the warm seas beyond; north across the Caspian towards the Great Plain and the Great Steppe; east to the peaks of the Altai and the arid sands of the Taklamakan; and south towards the Hindu Kush and the Indus valley, looping down around in the direction of the Persian Gulf and across the Fertile Crescent.” When I served on the Executive Board of the Central Eurasian Studies Society 20 years ago, its website provided a lengthy but useful geographic definition of “Central Eurasia.” This definition included “Turkic, Mongolian, Iranian, Caucasian, Tibetan, and other peoples in a broad area that geographically extends from the Black Sea region, the Crimea, and the Caucasus in the west, through the Middle Volga region, Central Asia and Afghanistan, and on to Siberia, Mongolia, and Tibet in the east.” To clarify the term “Black Sea region,” which appears in that definition, I adopt the European Union’s characterization of that region as stretching from Romania and Bulgaria, through northern Turkey and on to Georgia, but including only a thin coastal strip some 20‑60 kilometers wide within the EU itself, including the Danube delta. From that definition, it would follow that the Silk Road Region is largely embedded in Central Eurasia. The name “Central Eurasia” was sometimes used in the 1990s as a shorthand for the 15 former Soviet republics together (Russia included), but this usage has faded away. The collapse of the Soviet Union did not assure the eventual geoeconomic consolidation of Central Eurasia, but the conditions for that consolidation have now been established. This has occurred thanks to the confluence of international financial and industrial interest in the region’s energy resources, the political will of the United States (the only remaining superpower), and the freedom and rapidity of networked information exchanges made possible by the internet.
Topic:: International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, Regionalism, and Silk Road
Political Geography:: Europe and Asia

1170. The Strategic Benefits of the Southern Gas Corridor

Author:: Vitaliy Baylarbayov
Publication Date:: 04-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Baku Dialogues
Institution:: ADA University
Abstract:: At the end of 2020, the Southern Gas Corridor became fully operational. This marked the completion of a journey that began a decade ago when the government of Azerbaijan and the State Oil Company of the Azerbaijan Republic (SOCAR) took a strategic decision to launch a major natural gas export project. The Southern Gas Corridor is one of the largest and the most expensive gas supply projects in the world built to date. In December 2013, SOCAR and its partners signed a Final Investment Decision (FID) to establish a gas pipeline corridor from Azerbaijan through Georgia, Turkey, Greece, and Albania before ending in Italy. A branch pipeline is now under construction to Bulgaria, which is expected to be completed in the second half of 2021. In July 2018, the project supplied its first gas to the Turkish market and went on to change the dynamics of that country’s gas market, whereby Azerbaijan is now one of its top gas suppliers. On December 31st, 2020, inaugural commercial gas supplies arrived from the Caspian into Europe, signaling the commencement of the Southern Gas Corridor’s full operations. For Azerbaijan, the Southern Gas Corridor provides a major source of revenue unlinked to the global oil market; the project also strengthens Baku’s links with its neighbors and Europe. For SOCAR—as operator of components of the project and investor in all its segments—the project’s success represents a major step in the company’s transition from a national to an international energy company. The Southern Gas Corridor provides new gas supplies to Turkey, Georgia, and Europe and is a platform for increased supplies to these markets and also can be extended to reach additional markets in Europe. With the completion of the first stage of the Southern Gas Corridor, Azerbaijan and SOCAR, together with their partners, are examining strategies for the next phase of the corridor’s development.
Topic:: Energy Policy, International Trade and Finance, Natural Resources, and Gas
Political Geography:: Europe, Asia, and Azerbaijan

1171. The Southern Gas Corridor and the New Geopolitics of Climate Change

Author:: Morena Skalamera
Publication Date:: 04-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Baku Dialogues
Institution:: ADA University
Abstract:: It has been argued that the U.S. shale revolution, the Trump Administration’s energy policies, and the global shift towards low‑carbon energy sources and renewables have contributed to shape a new energy order—one that challenges the market power traditionally enjoyed by petro‑states. Nowhere are these developments more relevant than in Azerbaijan, as the country’s expensive investments in the Southern Gas Corridor come under increasing pressure. Unless Azerbaijani gas can be decarbonized at a competitive cost, it may risk becoming redundant within a couple of decades as Europe embraces a greener future. Geopolitics and Geo‑economics The Southern Gas Corridor (SGC) is a $45bn mega‑project ($25bn for the development of the Shah Deniz II field and at least $15bn for the delivery system) to supply natural gas from the Caspian Sea to Europe and, by so doing, reduce reliance on Russian imports. This is a priority that has taken on urgency in the wake of Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea and the sharp deterioration in relations between Moscow and Brussels that ensued. Currently, the SGC is made up of two pipelines to deliver gas from Azerbaijan’s Shah Deniz II field to Turkey and Europe—one called TANAP that is already operational and runs the length of Turkey, and another known as TAP stretching from Turkey’s border with Greece across Albania to Italy, which started pumping gas in late 2020. This is how a leading ADA University policy expert described the situation to me in October 2020, in light of technical delays in the pipeline’s inauguration and the big changes in energy markets described above: “the TAP pipeline is 90 percent completed and will be inaugurated soon. Unlike oil pipelines, whose flexible delivery to the end‑consumer can be sorted out once they are built— as oil travels via tanker, rail, etc.— gas pipelines are more rigid investment endeavors. [...] You don’t agree on a gas pipeline unless you have secured a buyer on the other end.” While natural gas supplies from Azerbaijan’s Shah Deniz field are already contracted, the project has seen numerus twists and turns since it was signed with great fanfare at the end of 2013. The SGC is an expensive endeavor and the institutions that lined up to finance it are a testament to the degree of strategic importance it carries for the EU. The project has, indeed, been designated as one of the EU’s “priority projects.”
Topic:: Climate Change, Energy Policy, Environment, Natural Resources, and Gas
Political Geography:: Europe, Asia, and Azerbaijan

1172. Oil Pipelines in the Silk Road Region Coordination and Collaboration Amidst Competition and Confrontation

Author:: Rodrigo Labardini
Publication Date:: 04-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Baku Dialogues
Institution:: ADA University
Abstract:: For centuries, numerous projects have wanted to connect the Caspian Sea to its main markets in the East (China) and the West (Europe). All vie to link energy sources (oil and gas) and goods (commodities and manufactured products) with consumers. Contemporary pipelines and transport corridors are presented as cost‑efficient, faster, and profitable, and thus sound economical alternatives to traditional hauling via tankers. Reviewing the political map, continental pathways between East and West must traverse two regional “choke‑points,” each with three alternative routes. First, the “Eastern Gap” at the Caspian Sea: Russia, Iran, and the Caspian Sea. The Caspian Sea region also includes Azerbaijan, of course, since it is the only state (together with Russia and Iran) located on its western bank, with routing options via the Caucasus to reach the Black Sea and Anatolia on to Europe. Second, the “Western Gap” at the Black Sea: Russia (again), the Black Sea, and Anatolia. The South Caucasus’ unique geographical location between East and West as well as between Russia and Iran place it at a strategic crossroads of key geopolitical interest. Furthermore, the Caucasus‑Caspian Sea‑Central Asia region (CCCA) today—this corresponds more or less to what the editors of Baku Dialogues have called the “Silk Road region”—is merging ever closer with Eurasian and Middle East politics. The politicization of energy and transport—with pipeline politics often dealing with opposing economic and partisan interests—as well as sanctions against Russia and Iran, also raises the importance of sanctions‑free routes. Compounding these issues is the fact that several countries in the region are landlocked, dependent on transit states, and vulnerable to the latter’s maneuvers.
Topic:: International Trade and Finance, Oil, Natural Resources, and Silk Road
Political Geography:: Global Focus

1173. Beijing’s Long Way to the Gulf Region Oil, Security, Geopolitics

Author:: Fuad Shahbazov
Publication Date:: 04-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Baku Dialogues
Institution:: ADA University
Abstract:: Energy cooperation has been a key aspect of growing bilateral cooperation between China and the Arab states of the Gulf region for the past several years. Since 1996, China has become a net importer of crude oil and, as the second‑largest energy consumer in the world after the United States, is now the third‑largest importer of oil after the United States and Japan. Therefore, it should not come as a surprise that China is eying a deep and strategic partnership with the states of a region that sits on top of the world’s largest proven crude oil and natural gas reserves. The deepening political and economic cooperation between China and the member states of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) has received increasing attention from the region’s more established strategic players: foremost the United States, but also the UK as well as the EU and some of its member states. Indeed, the region’s apparent geopolitical challenges— such as the American withdrawal from the Middle East, the escalation of sectarian wars in the region, the outbreak and development of the Syrian conflict followed by the spread of Islamic radicalism and similar threats—have encouraged the Arab states in the Gulf (as well as Iran) to look more to the East for new reliable partners. This has provided China with an opportunity to obtain a foothold in the region, which sits adjacent to the Silk Road region and is therefore of significant and lasting interest to readers of Baku Dialogues. With the rapid growth of its economy and consequent heightened energy demands, China is viewed as a potential investor by the oil rich GCC states, each of which needs to diversify its economy. Ongoing Western sanctions directed against Iran also make China an attractive proposition for Tehran. Although the Chinese interest in, and policy towards, the region is increasingly complex, this new axis between the Gulf region (especially the Arab half) and China has not received much attention from the think tank and academic communities—at least in the West.
Topic:: Security, International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, Oil, Natural Resources, Hegemony, and Energy
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and Gulf Nations

1174. Trilateral Cooperation Between Azerbaijan, Turkey, and Georgia

Author:: Dr. Richard Weitz
Publication Date:: 04-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Baku Dialogues
Institution:: ADA University
Abstract:: Since the breakup of the Soviet Union, Azerbaijan, Turkey, and Georgia have achieved unprecedented levels of economic and security collaboration. Through this expanding cooperation, the three countries have established themselves as a collective hub of Eurasian energy extraction and multi‑model transportation. Their growing ties have accelerated since the opening of the Baku‑Tbilisi‑Ceyhan (BTC) oil pipeline in 2006 to extend to the construction of additional pipelines, the launching in 2017 of the Baku‑Tbilisi‑Kars (BTK) railway, the holding of regular trilateral military exercises, and the convening of frequent high‑level leadership meetings. The South Caucasus remains one of the world’s most complex geopolitical regions, with several external powers competing for regional influence.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, Hegemony, Alliance, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Europe, Turkey, Asia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, North America, and United States of America

1175. Ukraine’s Strategic Relations with the South Caucasus With References to Turkey and Russia

Publication Date:: 04-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Baku Dialogues
Institution:: ADA University
Abstract:: kraine’s relations with the three Southern Caucasian states of Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Armenia have been varied during the three decades since the disintegration of the Soviet Union. Ukraine has paid greater attention to pro‑Western Georgia and multivectoral Azerbaijan, and the least attention to pro‑Russian Armenia. In Soviet times, the Ukrainian and Georgian dissident and nationalist movements maintained close ties, and this influenced the development of friendly relations between Ukraine and Georgia in the post‑Soviet era. From the late 1990s onwards, Ukraine and Georgia made joining both NATO and the EU priority goals, which also played a role in bringing Kyiv and Tbilisi together. Azerbaijan pursued a multi‑vector foreign policy of integration without membership in these two institutions, managing to be cautiously pro‑Western but at the same time not anti‑Russian. Armenia, on the other hand, has been a member of all Russian‑led regional integration projects since the early 1990s, and therefore Kyiv has had few common interests with Yerevan. Relations with Armenia have deteriorated since 2014 because of Armenia’s support for Russia’s annexation of Crimea and the presence of Armenian mercenaries fighting against Ukraine in the ranks of Russia’s proxies in the Donbas. During the Second Karabakh War, the Ukrainian media, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and all political parties (except one pro‑Russian one) enthusiastically supported Azerbaijan.
Topic:: Security, International Cooperation, Regionalism, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Turkey, and Ukraine

1176. Development or Regression? Eurasia’s Investment Attractiveness

Author:: Stanislav Pritchin
Publication Date:: 04-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Baku Dialogues
Institution:: ADA University
Abstract:: In 2021 the countries of Central Asia and the South Caucasus—some call it Eurasia, other the Silk Road region—will celebrate thirty years of independence. Theoretically, this period should have provided sufficient time for each to have formed a new economic model, set and at least partially attain long‑term development goals, and developed a foreign policy model for optimal interaction with investors, including foreign ones. However, the experience of the post‑Soviet republics under consideration in this essay, which does not aspire to be comprehensive but should rather be considered a preliminary assessment, indicates that independence is neither a prerequisite for successful development nor one that centers of achieving a sustainable increase in popular welfare. Despite the fact that in 1991 standards of living and educational and economic attainment in the Soviet republics that are examined in this essay were approximately similar, after three decades of independent development the countries under consideration have been significantly stratified in terms of national wealth, types of political and social systems, and the specifics of their economic activities.
Topic:: International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, Regionalism, and Silk Road
Political Geography:: Europe and Asia

1177. Migrant caravans in U.S.-Mexico relations/Las Caravanas de Migrantes Entre México y Estados Unidos

Author:: Julieta Espín Ocampo
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:: Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:: For decades, undocumented Central American migrants crossing Mexican territory on their way to the United States have suffered abuse and violence by cirmiinal groups, but also by law enforcement officials who should not only enforce the border law but also protect them in accordance with international agreements. Only recently the presence of this mass of people begins to attract the attention of Mexican society, especially as a result of the emergence of so-called "migrant caravans" that initiated in 2018. This article analyses the reaction of the Mexican State to caravans and American pressure to stop them, which has moved from an open-door policy with greater commitment to the defense of the rights of these foreigners in its territory, to prevent their entry, increasing deportations and using them as bargaining chip in Mexican trade negotiations with the Trump Administration. /
Topic:: Migration, Treaties and Agreements, Borders, Asylum, and Deportation
Political Geography:: Central America, Mexico, and United States of America

1178. The Terrorist Threat Forecast in 2021

Author:: Liu Chunlin and Rohan Gunaratna
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:: Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:: The pandemic year 2021 is likely to witness an overall decline in global terrorism. While the threat grew in conflict zones, it diminished off-the-battlefields. However, threat groups worldwide are expanding in cyber space during the pandemic. From Indonesia to Pakistan, Muslim majority countries, Arabization and Islamization of Muslim communities during the pandemic is disrupting national cohesion. To prevent, counter and respond to the recent developments of key terrorist organizations, governmental and non-governmental partners should understand the threat. The intelligence services, law enforcement authorities and military forces should move from counter terrorism cooperation to collaboration and partnership. Working with community, academic and private sector partners, governments should build the higher strategic and ground level operational and tactical capabilities.
Topic:: Terrorism, Cybersecurity, Al Qaeda, Islamic State, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Pakistan, Afghanistan, Indonesia, and Global Focus

1179. Mexico 2018-2021: Pandemic, Crisis, Security and Geopolitics/México 2018-2021: Pandemia, Crisis, Seguridad y Geopolítica

Author:: Raúl Benítez Manaut
Publication Date:: 05-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:: Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:: The article starts from the hypothesis that the COVID-19 pandemic re-evaluates the concept of multidimensional security, which emerged from the 2003 meeting of the Organization of American States. It is argued that, at the level of hemispheric geopolitics, it is in the three most populous countries, under the nationalist and populist leaderships of Donald Trump, Jair Bolsonaro and Andrés Manuel López Obrador, where the pandemic has wreaked the most havoc. The similarities in the initial handling of the pandemic, its minus-valuation, the so-called Fourth Transformation policy and its characteristics, deployed by President López Obrador in Mexico and its effect on the militarization of the country are analyzed as well as the impact of the pandemic on the population and the great economic crisis induced. It is concluded that Mexico is experiencing a "militarization with popular support", and that the pandemic has favored the public image of the military. / El artículo se desarrolla sobre la hipótesis de que la pandemia COVID-19 revalora el concepto de seguridad multidimensional, desprendido de la reunión de la Organización de Estados Americanos de 2003. Se afirma que, a nivel de la geopolítica del hemisferio, es en los tres países más poblados, los liderazgos nacionalistas y populistas de Donald Trump, Jair Bolsonaro y Andrés Manuel López Obrador, donde la pandemia ha causado más estragos. Se analizan las similitudes en el manejo inicial de la pandemia, su minusvaloración, la llamada política de la Cuarta Transformación y sus características, desplegada por el presidente López Obrador en México y el efecto que tiene en la militarización del país; el impacto de la pandemia en la población y la gran crisis económica inducida. Se concluye que México vive una “militarización con respaldo popular”, y que la pandemia ha sido un elemento que ha favorecido a los militares en su imagen pública.
Topic:: Security, Populism, COVID-19, and Militarization
Political Geography:: Brazil, Latin America, Mexico, and United States of America

1180. The "Venezuela Factor": COVID-19 in times of Bolivarian Revolution/El “factor Venezuela”: Covid-19 En Tiempos De Revolución Bolivariana

Author:: Rafael Rincón-Urdaneta Zerpa
Publication Date:: 05-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:: Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:: COVID-19 pandemic has exposed gaps and vulnerabilities around the world and, at the same time, has highlighted the demand for more cooperation and commitment from countries to address global risks and challenges. However, not all nations are in a position to meet these demands. In Latin America, hard hit by the pandemic, Venezuela appears as one of the most critical countries. COVID-19 has arrived in a country whose institutional and economic deterioration has been affected by two decades of steep decline. Its democratic institutions are among the worst evaluated on the planet and its economic and social situation has been dramatically reported with the massive exodus of Venezuelans. This article presents a very general diagnosis of what could be called "the Venezuela factor" in the regional context under the prism of COVID-19. / La pandemia del COVID-19 ha expuesto falencias y vulnerabilidades en todo el mundo y ha advertido la demanda de más cooperación y compromiso por parte de los países para enfrentar los riesgos y desafíos globales. Sin embargo, no todas las naciones están en condiciones de asumir estas exigencias. En América Latina, duramente golpeada por la pandemia, Venezuela aparece como uno de los factores más críticos. El COVID-19 ha llegado a un país cuyo deterioro institucional y económico supera las dos décadas de acentuado declive. Sus instituciones democráticas se encuentran entre las peor evaluadas del planeta y su situación económica y social se ha expresado dramáticamente en el éxodo masivo de venezolanos. En este artículo se presenta un diagnóstico muy general de lo que podría llamarse «el factor Venezuela» en el contexto regional bajo el prisma del COVID-19.
Topic:: Security, Regional Cooperation, Leadership, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Latin America and Venezuela

1181. A Decade of War in Syria: Current Situation and Possible Outcomes/Una Década de Guerra en Siria: Situación Actual y Posibles Desenlaces

Author:: Andrea Cocchini
Publication Date:: 10-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:: Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:: This year 2021 marks the tenth anniversary of the beginning of the armed conflict in Syria which, triggered by graffiti against the government of the al-Assad family, turned into a civil war with at least 390,000 dead, involving numerous States in the Middle East, as well as the major global powers, with their own specific geopolitical interests. This article therefore aims to provide an account of the current situation in Syria and the objectives that these powers still have in this country. Once the two main reasons for intervening in the conflict disappeared, the true nature of this war came to the surface, embedded in the broader contests of historical rivalry between the United States and Russia on the one hand, and Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Iran on the other. Apparently, none of them really wants to end it, without compensation. / En este año 2021 se cumplen diez años del comienzo del conflicto armado en Siria que, desencadenado por unos grafitis en contra del gobierno guiado con mano autoritaria por la familia al-Assad, se ha convertido en una guerra con, al menos, 390.000 muertos, que ha acabado involucrando a numerosos Estados de Oriente Próximo, así como a grandes potencias, cada una portadora de intereses geopolíticos concretos. El presente artículo pretende dar cuenta de la situación actual de Siria y, en particular, de los objetivos particulares que mantienen en el país diversos actores. Después de que desaparecieran las dos razones principales esgrimidas para intervenir en el conflicto, quedó de manifiesto su auténtica naturaleza de guerra subsidiaria y sectaria, que se inserta en las más amplias contiendas entre rivales históricos como los Estados Unidos y Rusia, por una parte, y Arabia Saudí, Turquía e Irán, por otra, y que ninguno entre ellos parece tener interés en acabar sin recibir compensaciones.
Topic:: Geopolitics, Islamic State, Military Intervention, Conflict, Syrian War, Proxy War, Operation Inherent Resolve, and Euphrates Shield
Political Geography:: Russia, Iran, Turkey, Middle East, Saudi Arabia, Syria, and United States of America

1182. The Netanyahu Doctrine: A paradigm shift in the State of Israel's foreign policy/La Doctrina Netanyahu: Un Cambio de Paradigma en la Política Exterior del Estado de Israel

Author:: Alberto Priego
Publication Date:: 10-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:: Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:: After almost 75 years of existence of the State of Israel, its foreign policy has maintained a certain continuity. Some prime ministers such as David Ben Gurion, Menahem Begin, Isaac Rabin have taken some turns in foreign policy that in the long term will condition Israel's future. Last summer Benjamin Netanyahu left the government after more than twelve years in office, becoming the longest-serving Israeli leader. Throughout these years, Benjamin Netanyahu has introduced important structural reforms in the country. One of these fields has been foreign policy, where he has implemented his own doctrine, the Netanyahu Doctrine. This article will try to present the fundamental points that make up this foreign policy doctrine. An interpretative approach will be adopted using the most important speeches of Benjamin Netanyahu. / En los casi 75 años de existencia del Estado de Israel, su política exterior ha mantenido una cierta continuidad. Algunos primeros ministros como David Ben-Gurión, Menahem Begin, Issac Rabín han dado giros a la política exterior que, a largo plazo, han condicionado el futuro de Israel. El pasado verano Benjamín Netanyahu salió del gobierno después de más de doce años en el cargo convirtiéndose en el mandatario israelí que más tiempo ha permanecido en el cargo. A lo largo de estos años, Benjamín Netanyahu ha introducido importantes reformas estructurales en país. Uno de estos campos ha sido la política exterior donde se puede considerar que se ha instalado una doctrina propia, la Doctrina Netanyahu. Este artículo tratará de construir los puntos fundamentales que componen esta doctrina de política exterior. Se adoptará una aproximación interpretativa usando los discursos más importantes de Benjamín Netanyahu.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Economy, Negotiation, Peace, and Benjamin Netanyahu
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

1183. Fall 2021 edition of Strategic Visions

Author:: Alan McPherson
Publication Date:: 09-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Strategic Visions
Institution:: Center for the Study of Force and Diplomacy, Temple University
Abstract:: Contents News from the Director . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 Fall 2021 Lecture Series . . . . . . . . 2 Fall 2021 Prizes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 New: The Emerging Scholar Graduate Award! . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 Spring 2022 Lecture Series Announcement . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 Note from the Davis Fellow . . . . . . . . . 6 CENFAD Community Interviews Q&A with Ethan Cohen, Inaugural Immerman Awardee . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 Eric J. Perinovic . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 Dr. David B. Zierler . . . . . . . . . . . 21 Dr. Silke Zoller . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32 Dr. Benjamin Talton . . . . . . . . . . 45 Book Reviews Making the Forever War: Marilyn B. Young on the Culture and Politics of American Militarism, reviewed by Alexandra Southgate . . . . . . . . . . 61 The Ends of Modernization: Nicaragua and the United States in the Cold War Era, reviewed by Joseph Edward Johnson . . . . . . . . 65
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Cold War, Military Affairs, and Diplomatic History
Political Geography:: Nicaragua and Global Focus

1184. Spring 2021 edition of Strategic Visions

Author:: Alan McPherson
Publication Date:: 04-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Strategic Visions
Institution:: Center for the Study of Force and Diplomacy, Temple University
Abstract:: Contents News from the Director Colloquium………………………..2 CENFAD sponsored lectures……...3 Prizes………………………………4 CENFAD Workshop………………4 Thanks to the Davis Fellow……….5 News from the CENFAD Community…6 Note from the Davis Fellow……………9 Book Reviews A Wall of Our Own: An American History of the Berlin Wall Review by Brandon Kinney…..11 Civil Aviation and the Globalization of the Cold War Review by Michael Fischer…..13 Imperial Metropolis: Los Angeles, Mexico, and the Borderlands of American Empire, 1865–1941 Review by Amanda Summers..15 Educating the Empire: American Teachers and Contested Colonization in the Philippines Review by Madison Ingram…17 Fantasy Island: Colonialism, Exploitation, and the Betrayal of Puerto Rico Review by Graydon Dennison..19 Beatriz Allende: A Revolutionary Life in Latin America Review by Michael Onufrak….21
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Cold War, Military Affairs, Empire, Diplomatic History, and Statecraft
Political Geography:: United States, Philippines, Germany, Latin America, Global Focus, and Puerto Rico

1185. November 2021 Issue

Author:: Andrew Watkins, Seth Morrow, Nicholas Tallant, Jerome P. Bjelopera, and Matthew Bamber
Publication Date:: 11-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: CTC Sentinel
Institution:: The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:: It has been three months since the Taliban entered Kabul and retook control of Afghanistan. According to the head of the U.N. World Food Programme, “23 million people [are now] marching toward starvation. 95% of Afghans don’t have enough food. The economy is collapsing. Winter is coming. This is going to be hell on earth.” In this month’s feature article, Andrew Watkins assesses the Taliban’s efforts to rule Afghanistan so far. He writes that “The Taliban have busied themselves consolidating control, reacting swiftly and harshly to perceived threats. They have not clearly defined the scope or structure of their state, nor have they shared long-term plans for their rank-and-file, many of which continue to operate as they did before August 15, 2021. Taliban leaders have demonstrated the continued primacy of maintaining internal cohesion, a longstanding trait that will likely stunt the group’s response to Afghanistan’s impending economic and humanitarian crises.” Watkins writes that from their perspective, “accepting aid that might sustain their state would prove worthless if doing so fueled a fissure within their own organization. The Taliban would become the very thing their origin story professes they rose up to eradicate and replace: a fractious constellation of militant bands. To put it another way, if Afghanistan’s compounding crises pose the Taliban with the prospect of either failing to provide for the desperate needs of the Afghan people or their own potential fragmentation, the Taliban will put their own organization first.” This month’s interview is with General Richard D. Clarke, commander of U.S. Special Operations Command. In a commentary, Jerome Bjelopera argues that “given that the U.S. national security establishment has taken up great power competition (GPC) as its primary concern recently, and terrorism has slipped from the top position, it is time for the security policy community to place terrorism within a new conceptual framework, one that combines terrorists, violent criminals, drug traffickers, insurgents, and others under the heading of violent non-state actors (VNSA).” Interviews that Matthew Bamber conducted with 43 former Islamic State civilian employees shed light on two distinct categories: those who became full members of the group and those who did not. He writes that “there are significant differences in how these two categories were treated by the Islamic State, the positions they were able to fill, the financial benefits they received, and the processes through which they joined and left Islamic State employment ... Understanding the nuances is important in assessing the culpability of the Islamic State’s civilian workers and the danger they may pose in the future.”
Topic:: Terrorism, Non State Actors, Military Affairs, Taliban, Counter-terrorism, Islamic State, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, Middle East, and United States of America

1186. October 2021 Issue

Author:: Don Rassler, Michael Knights, Michael Smith, Crispin Smith, Hamdi Malik, Sean Morrow, and Jonathan Schroden
Publication Date:: 10-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: CTC Sentinel
Institution:: The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:: In this month’s feature article, Michael Knights, Crispin Smith, and Hamdi Malik examine the increased discordance within the Iran Threat Network militias in Iraq (muqawama) based on their detailed tracking of recent dynamics for the “Militia Spotlight” platform at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. They find that “while the IRGC-QF (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-Quds Force) still runs Iran’s covert operations inside Iraq, they face growing difficulties in controlling local militant cells. Hardline anti-U.S. militias struggle with the contending needs to de-escalate U.S.-Iran tensions, meet the demands of their base for anti-U.S. operations, and simultaneously evolve non-kinetic political and social wings.” The authors assess that, having under-performed in the recent elections, the muqawama will likely prioritize a bottom-up approach to building up their political base. And they warn that “any shift from Iran’s de-escalatory position, perhaps linked to a failure of U.S.-Iran nuclear talks—or a more significant loss of Iranian influence over muqawama factions—could trigger a sustained escalation of muqawama operations against the U.S.-led coalition in 2022 and beyond.” In this month’s interview, former U.S. National Security Advisor Lieutenant General (Ret) H.R. McMaster provides his perspective on what led to the Taliban takeover in Afghanistan. In a commentary, Don Rassler argues that the United States needs to better leverage its vast terrorism data holdings by creating a new terrorism and counterterrorism data action plan that exploits the power of data-science and artificial intelligence driven approaches. That plan, he writes, should include five key precepts: 1) reinvest in and advance core terrorism data, 2) strategically leverage captured material, 3) better develop and utilize counterterrorism data, 4) practice data alchemy, and 5) automate basic and other analytical tasks, and augment data. Jonathan Schroden looks at lessons learned from the 2021 collapse of the Afghan National Defense and Security Forces’ (ANDSF). He writes that six themes that emerge are: “the ANDSF collapse was months—if not years—in the making; the United States did not give the ANDSF everything they needed to be independently successful; the ANDSF did put up a fierce fight in many areas; the ANDSF were poorly served by Afghan political leaders; the ANDSF were poorly served by their own commanders; and the Taliban strategy overwhelmed and demoralized the ANDSF. From these themes, there are three key lessons: the ANDSF’s failure had many fathers; the U.S. model of security assistance requires reform; and greater emphasis on non-material factors (e.g., morale) is needed in future security force assessments.”
Topic:: Military Affairs, Counter-terrorism, Artificial Intelligence, Data, and Militias
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, Iraq, Iran, and Middle East

1187. September 2021 Issue

Author:: Paul Cruickshank, Don Rassler, Kristina Hummel, Raffaello Pantucci, Asfandyar Mir, Charles Lister, Elisabeth Kendall, Tricia Bacon, Jason Warner, and Colin Clarke
Publication Date:: 09-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: CTC Sentinel
Institution:: The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:: It has been 20 years since 9/11. In the wake of the attacks, the Combating Terrorism Center at West Point (CTC) was established to provide cadets and policymakers with best-in-class research so that they could better understand and confront the threat. With the Taliban returning to power in Afghanistan, with Africa emerging as the new epicenter of global jihadi terror, and with it likely becoming more difficult for the intelligence community to track threats in jihadi conflict zones from which the United States has withdrawn militarily, objective and rigorous open-source research is more critical than ever. To mark the 20th anniversary of 9/11, this special issue of CTC Sentinel, supported by the Recrudescence Project, features interviews with five former officials who have made immense contributions to the counterterrorism enterprise: former Acting Director of the CIA Michael Morell, former CENTCOM Commander Joseph Votel, former State Department Coordinator for Counterterrorism Dell Dailey, former FBI Special Agent Ali Soufan, and former Chief of the U.K. Secret Intelligence Service (MI6) Sir Alex Younger. Their reflections on 9/11 and their lessons learned across key parts of the counterterrorism spectrum—intelligence; military; diplomacy; law enforcement—and across the Atlantic are essential reading. Video highlights of several of the interviews are available on the CTC website: Michael Morell, Joseph Votel, Dell Dailey, and Ali Soufan. (Please right-click and open new tab to view.) The special issue also features five articles by leading scholars on the evolving global terror threat landscape. Asfandyar Mir focuses on Afghanistan. Charles Lister examines Syria. Tricia Bacon and Jason Warner look at Africa. Elisabeth Kendall surveys Yemen and Saudi Arabia. And Colin Clarke evaluates the future of the global jihadi movement. On this anniversary, our deepest sympathies are with those who have lost loved ones to terrorism. Responding to this threat, as General Votel puts it, has been a noble undertaking. We deeply appreciate those who have served. Their sacrifices have saved countless lives.
Topic:: Intelligence, Taliban, Counter-terrorism, 9/11, and Jihad
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, Africa, Syria, Arabian Peninsula, and United States of America

1188. July/August 2021 Issue

Author:: Graham Macklin, Don Rassler, Paul Cruickshank, Matthew Kriner, Jon Lewis, Yassin Musharbash, Milo Comerford, Jakob Guhl, and Elise Thomas
Publication Date:: 08-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: CTC Sentinel
Institution:: Centre for the Study of Terrorism and Political Violence, St. Andrews University, Scotland
Abstract:: Six months have now elapsed since the events of January 6. This issue of CTC Sentinel focuses in large part on the evolving threat of extreme far-right violence around the world. In the feature article, Graham Macklin examines in detail the thwarted October 2020 conspiracy to kidnap Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer. He writes that the plot “highlights how anti-government ‘militias’ have continued to adapt and evolve, exploiting conspiracy theories and deliberate disinformation surrounding the pandemic, to remold traditional grievances about the ‘tyranny’ of the U.S. government.” In a wide-ranging interview, Deputy to the Under-Secretary-General Raffi Gregorian, the director of the United Nations Office of Counter-Terrorism (UNOCT), says the United Nations needs to counter extreme far-right violence around the world. “It’s worth reflecting about the origins of the United Nations as a group of allies fighting Nazis,” he states. “We ought to be doing this. We have a legal basis to do it. It would be nice to have a clear political signal to do it. I think we’ll get it. And I think we’ll get it because the countries that are most afflicted with it right now are ones that are also very interested in doing something about it.” The reporting of Yassin Musharbash and a team of his colleagues at Die Zeit has shed significant light on the globalization of the violent far-right. In an article that outlines and elaborates on this reporting, Musharbash writes that “right-wing extremists today, in many cases, no longer subscribe to the narrow concept of nationalism but instead imagine themselves as participants in a global struggle against a global enemy.” Matthew Kriner and Jon Lewis examine the Proud Boys, a violent far-right group alleged to have played a significant role in the U.S. Capitol siege. They write that the group has “continued to mobilize, sometimes armed and violently, in response to the continued disinformation narratives related to the ‘Stop the Steal’ movement, vaccines, and more, appearing at more than 20 events in 13 cities since January 6.” Milo Comerford, Jakob Guhl, and Elise Thomas profile Action Zealandia, outlining how the extreme far-right group fits into a “small but persistent far-right extremist ecosystem” in New Zealand and its “growing links with violent extreme far-right movements internationally.” This September, to mark the 20th anniversary of 9/11, the Combating Terrorism Center will be publishing a special issue of CTC Sentinel on the evolution of the global jihadi threat.
Topic:: Counter-terrorism, Violence, Far Right, and Proud Boys
Political Geography:: Europe, New Zealand, and United States of America

1189. June 2021 Issue

Author:: Florian Flade, Jason Warner, Alex Newhouse, and Peter Kirechu
Publication Date:: 06-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: CTC Sentinel
Institution:: The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:: “A series of extreme far-right cases among members of Germany’s military and police highlight the threat of the enemy within: radicalized extremists within security services, with access to weapons, training, and confidential information,” Florian Flade writes in this month’s feature article. According to Flade, “The specter of armed underground cells being trained by former or current members of the security services has been a wake-up call for authorities. New measures have already been implemented within Germany’s domestic and military intelligence agencies to more effectively root out enemies of the state wearing uniforms. Nevertheless, the threat will most likely persist in the coming years.” He adds that “with the United States and other countries also grappling with this problem set, it is vital to share lessons learned and best practices at the international level.” This month’s interview is with Idriss Mounir Lallali, the Deputy Director and Acting (Interim) Director of the African Centre for the Study and Research on Terrorism (ACSRT), a structure of the African Union Commission (the secretariat of the African Union). Alex Newhouse examines “the multi-node structure” of a global network of violent neo-fascist accelerationists seeking system collapse. He writes that “evidence from Atomwaffen’s development and collapse reveals that it was not the apex of a hierarchy of groups, but rather one node in a larger network of violent accelerationists. This network is built on membership fluidity, frequent communications, and a shared goal of social destruction. This framework is vital to understanding how and why action against individual groups is not sufficient, and why the threat from Atomwaffen has not faded in spite of its reported ‘collapse.’ The lesson to be drawn from the history of the Atomwaffen Division is that the current threat of neo-fascist accelerationism exists more in the evolution of the network as a whole, rather than in any one individual group.” Peter Kirechu examines “Iran’s Currency Laundromats in the Emirates.” He writes that “Since 2014, the United States has sanctioned dozens of Iranian nationals and commercial entities for the illicit acquisition of U.S. and other foreign currencies. A close review of these designations reveals the organized character of Iran’s illicit currency laundering operations and the role of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) in their orchestration. It also shows that Iran relies on a diverse network of illicit commercial entrepreneurs to covertly access foreign currencies abroad. These actors operate under the cover of legitimate commerce and exploit the vulnerabilities of regional economic centers—such as the United Arab Emirates—to provide covert financial resources to the Revolutionary Guards.”
Topic:: Military Affairs, Counter-terrorism, Fascism, Far Right, and Police
Political Geography:: Africa, Iran, Germany, and United Arab Emirates

1190. April/May 2021 Issue

Author:: Audrey Alexander, Brian Hughes, Cynthia Miller-Idriss, Tim Lister, Abdul Sayed, Tore Hamming, and Aaron Edwards
Publication Date:: 05-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: CTC Sentinel
Institution:: The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:: Ten years ago, the United States launched Operation Neptune Spear, the May 2011 raid on Usama bin Ladin’s compound in Abbottabad, Pakistan, which resulted in the death of al-Qa`ida’s founder. In this issue, CTC Sentinel speaks with Admiral (Retired) William McRaven and Nicholas Rasmussen to compare vantage points of the operation from a military and policy perspective. A decade after the raid, the operation continues to offer practitioners, policymakers, and researchers valuable lessons for the future. While some of their reflections pertain to counterterrorism policies and practices, others speak to the importance of leadership at times of uncertainty, discipline, interagency collaboration, and most of all, commitment to a shared mission. According to Rasmussen what makes it “such a compelling story at the 10-year mark is that it has such an important operational story to tell, but also … it’s a remarkable window into presidential decision-making under extraordinary conditions of uncertainty and risk.” McRaven stresses the mission was about justice for the victims of 9/11 and other al-Qa`ida attacks: “We were honored to have the opportunity to go on the mission, but make no mistake about it, this was about 500,000 plus soldiers, sailors, airmen, Marines that took this fight to al-Qa`ida.” In this month’s feature article, Brian Hughes and Cynthia Miller-Idriss assess that the storming of the U.S. Capitol on January 6, 2021, provided a boost to far-right extremists who seek total political and social collapse, an objective sometimes referred to as “accelerationism.” They write that “although many disagreements and personality clashes continue to emerge within and among groups since the storming of the Capitol, there are increasing indications that the typically fractious world of the extreme far-right is becoming more unified toward an objective of overthrowing the country’s prevailing political and social order.” Tim Lister examines the jihadi threat landscape in Mozambique in the wake of an attack by Islamic State-aligned militants on the town of Palma in March 2021. He writes: “for four days, they were rampant, killing at least dozens of local people and destroying much of the town’s infrastructure, including banks, a police station, and food aid warehouses. The attack reverberated around the world because Palma was home to hundreds of foreign workers, most of them contractors for the Total liquefied natural gas (LNG) project on the nearby Afungi Peninsula.” Abdul Sayed and Tore Hamming warn that “after reabsorbing a number of splinter groups, and addressing internal tensions,” the Pakistani Taliban (TTP) has “intensified its campaign of terrorism in Pakistan and is again growing in strength.” Aaron Edwards argues a new approach toward security in Northern Ireland is necessary in the wake of the April 2021 loyalist violence.
Topic:: Military Affairs, Taliban, Counter-terrorism, Violence, 9/11, Jihad, and January 6
Political Geography:: Pakistan, Mozambique, United States of America, and Northern Ireland

1191. March 2021 Issue

Author:: Audrey Alexander, Kristina Hummel, Brian Michael Jenkins, Thomas Ruttig, and Douglas Weeks
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: CTC Sentinel
Institution:: The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:: President Biden soon has to decide whether to withdraw the remaining 2,500 U.S. troops from Afghanistan to meet a May 1 deadline agreed to by the previous administration. With time ticking down, the Biden administration has launched a major diplomatic push to broker a peace settlement for Afghanistan. As noted by Thomas Ruttig in this month’s feature article, “Whether and how much the Taliban have changed since their repressive rule over Afghanistan before the fall of 2001 is key to whether a potential peace settlement can create a social and political landscape in Afghanistan that is acceptable to the people of Afghanistan, as well as the United States and NATO allies.” Ruttig assesses that “While the Taliban have softened their rhetoric on some issues (for example, on women’s rights and education) and there is evidence of real policy change in certain areas (for example, on the use of media, in the education sector, a greater acceptance of NGOs, and an acceptance that a future political system will need to accommodate at least some of their political rivals), their policy adjustments appear to have been largely driven by political imperatives rather than any fundamental changes in ideology.” He assesses that “Whether some changes in approach will be perpetuated will depend on the ability of Afghan communities and political groups to maintain pressure on the Taliban. This, in turn, depends on continued international attention toward Afghanistan.” Brian Michael Jenkins, in a feature commentary, examines several possible courses of action the Biden administration could take if the U.S. efforts to broker a peace settlement in Afghanistan do not result in a major breakthrough in the coming weeks. He writes: “What makes a decision on which path to follow so difficult is that each option carries a high risk of resulting in bad outcomes.” He notes that “Decisive action always looks good, but a turbulent world also means calculating risks, avoiding unintended consequences, and hedging bets.” This month’s interview is with Mary McCord, the executive director of the Institute for Constitutional Advocacy and Protection at the Georgetown University Law Center, whose previous service in government included working as Acting Assistant Attorney General for National Security at the U.S. Department of Justice from 2016 to 2017. She offers insights on the heightened threat of far-right extremist violence in the United States and how the country’s legal architecture could evolve to counter it. Douglas Weeks argues that there is “too much pessimism” in the United Kingdom about the possibility of deradicalizing terrorist offenders. He writes: “To address the root causes of the threat, the United Kingdom needs to learn lessons from what has worked for successful ‘deradicalization’ mentors and empower their efforts.”
Topic:: Terrorism, Military Affairs, Taliban, Counter-terrorism, and Radicalization
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, United Kingdom, and United States of America

1192. February 2021 Issue

Author:: Ali Soufan, Matthew Kriner, Jon Lewis, Johannes Saal, Felix Lippe, and Hassan Abbas
Publication Date:: 02-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: CTC Sentinel
Institution:: The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:: In this month’s feature article, Ali Soufan provides a comprehensive profile of Saif al-`Adl, an Egyptian charter al-Qa`ida member who could soon become the group’s third emir. Soufan writes that “with the confirmed deaths of Hamza bin Ladin and Abu Muhammad al-Masri, as well as the reported (but as yet unconfirmed) demise of al-Qa`ida’s second emir, Ayman al-Zawahiri, the likely next in line to inherit the leadership is … Saif al-`Adl. Like the late Abu Muhammad, Saif lives in Iran and is apparently restricted from leaving the country. Little is known about his current movements or activities. Nevertheless, Saif’s revered status within the movement, as well as his deep experience as a military, intelligence, and security leader and a terrorist planner, make him a potentially dangerous emir.” In this month’s feature analysis, Matthew Kriner and Jon Lewis assess that the Boogaloo movement “has quickly evolved into a significant domestic violent extremist threat” with “an accelerationist faction within Boogaloo” seeking to “instigate decentralized insurrectionary violence.” They write that the movement “is best conceptualized as a decentralized, anti-authority movement composed of a diverse range of actors,” including white supremacists, neo-Nazis, militia movement members, accelerationists, and ultra-libertarians, who are mobilized in part by the “belief that they are following in the footsteps of the United States’ founders and participating in a revolution against tyranny.” Johannes Saal and Felix Lippe provide a case study of the November 2020 Vienna terrorist attack. They write that “the Vienna attacker, Kujtim Fejzulai, grew up in the city he attacked and had longstanding connections within the jihadi extremist milieu in Austria as well as jihadi contacts in other European countries and further afield. His two failed attempts to join the Islamic State overseas and the failure of efforts to deradicalize him after he was convicted for seeking to join the group underline the threat that can be posed by failed jihadi travelers and terrorist convicts after their release, as well as the difficulties in rehabilitating jihadi prisoners.” Hassan Abbas writes that “even as Pakistan has made progress in reducing the threat from terrorist sanctuaries in the Pakistan-Afghanistan tribal areas, an increased crime-terror nexus in urban centers and a new terrorist recruitment drive by Islamic State Khorasan province, or ISK, in Baluchistan has raised alarms. Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) is trying to stage a comeback, and sectarianism is also rising, creating a congenial environment for terrorist and extremist organizations, including some Kashmir-focused groups that have evaded counterterrorism scrutiny.”
Topic:: Counter-terrorism, Al Qaeda, Far Right, Political Extremism, and Boogaloo Bois
Political Geography:: Europe, Middle East, Austria, and United States of America

1193. January 2021 Issue

Author:: Bruce Hoffman, Jacob Ware, Stephen Hummel, Paul Cruickshank, Don Rassler, Jonathan Schroden, and Nodirbek Soliev
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: CTC Sentinel
Institution:: The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:: The violent storming of the U.S. Capitol on January 6, 2021, has heightened concerns about the threat posed by far-right extremism in the United States. In examining the wide range of terrorism and counterterrorism challenges facing the incoming Biden administration in this month’s feature commentary, Bruce Hoffman and Jacob Ware write that “the January 6 events at the U.S. Capitol offered a stark, frightening picture of the powerful forces fueling a conspiratorial mindset eschewing both the country’s foundational democratic values and the rule of law” and “serves as a salutary and timely reminder of the danger of potential violence to come.” Given the continued threat posed by “a stubbornly resilient Islamic State and an implacably determined al-Qa`ida,” they write that “it may be that as the United States and its allies enter the third decade of war against international salafi-jihadi terrorism, we need to recalibrate our immediate expectations away from ‘winning’ and ‘losing,’ toward ‘accepting’ and ‘managing’ this conflict. Such an admission would not be popular, but it would be a fairer reflection of the current state of the fight against terrorism, and a more honest prediction of what to expect over the next four, or more, years.” Our interview is with David Lasseter, the Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Countering Weapons of Mass Destruction. He notes that “advances in synthetic biology and other related biotechnologies hold the potential for both promise and peril in their application. And so we’ve got to be cognizant of how such technological shifts can alter the threat landscape [and] impose new defense and security challenges. We’ve heard it said that biological weapons are ‘a poor man’s nuke,’ given the potentially enormous impact of their usage. I think COVID-19 has further accelerated this mindset. The U.S. has had a watchful eye on bio threats and has elevated bio threats as a core national security priority over the past several years.” In an assessment that has far-reaching implications for the U.S. military mission in Afghanistan, Jonathan Schroden finds that if the United States were to withdraw the remainder of its troops from the country, the Taliban would have “a slight military advantage” over Afghanistan’s security forces, “which would then likely grow in a compounding fashion.” Nodirbek Soliev examines the Tajik connection in an Islamic State plot against U.S. and NATO air bases in Germany thwarted in April 2020.
Topic:: NATO, Taliban, Counter-terrorism, Islamic State, Joe Biden, and January 6
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, Europe, Tajikistan, Germany, and United States of America

1194. The Human Rights Situation in the Nagorno-karabakh Conflict: A Synopsis from the Un Protection Mechanisms/La situación de los derechos humanos en el conflicto de Nagorno-Karabaj. Una visión desde los mecanismos de protección de Naciones Unidas

Author:: Dorothy Estrada Tanck
Publication Date:: 10-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:: Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:: The conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh has deep historical roots and has been exacerbated by the armed conflict of 2020. In this context, the human rights situation of those affected, and especially of women and girls, is often left invisible. Thus, this article analyses the conflict by referring to the general position of the UN and public international law and by widening the lens, in particular, on international human rights law and the UN mechanisms articulated for the protection of those rights. A distinct focus on the human rights of women and girls is presented, giving an account of the empirical situations they face, to then study them through the lens of human rights with a gender perspective, emphasizing what the main international protection mechanisms dedicated to the issue have expressed in this regard./El conflicto entre Armenia y Azerbaiyán sobre el Nagorno-Karabaj presenta hondas raíces históricas y se ha visto exacerbado por el conflicto armado de 2020. En este contexto, a menudo la situación de los derechos humanos de las personas afectadas y, en particular, los de las mujeres y niñas, queda invisibilizada. Así, este artículo analiza el conflicto refiriendo la postura general de la ONU y el Derecho Internacional Público y ampliando el lente, en especial, sobre el Derecho internacional de los derechos humanos y los mecanismos de Naciones Unidas articulados para su protección. Se presenta un enfoque específico sobre los derechos humanos de las mujeres y niñas, dando cuenta de las situaciones empíricas que enfrentan, para estudiarlas después bajo la mirada de los derechos humanos con una perspectiva de género, poniendo énfasis en lo que al respecto han manifestado los principales mecanismos de protección internacional dedicados al tema.
Topic:: Human Rights, United Nations, Women, Conflict, and Girls
Political Geography:: Caucasus, Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Nagorno-Karabakh

1195. The European Union and the Nagorno-Karabaj conflict/La Unión Europea y el Conflicto de Nagorno-Karabaj

Author:: Juan Jorge Piernas López
Publication Date:: 10-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:: Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:: The purpose of this article is to analyse the European Union's policies and activities in relation to the Armenia-Azerbaijan Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. To this end, the article first describes the broad outline of the conflict. Secondly, the article analyzes the role of the European Union in the conflict and the policies and measures it proposes for its resolution within the framework of the Neighborhood Policy and the Eastern Partnership the Union maintains with the two States involved in the conflict, Finally, the article concludes with a series of considerations highlighting the role that the EU can play in the future in relation to this conflict./El presente artículo tiene por objeto analizar la actuación de la Unión Europea en relación con el conflicto entre Armenia y Azerbaiyán sobre Nagorno-Karabaj. Con este fin, el trabajo describe, en primer lugar, la evolución a grandes rasgos del conflicto. En segundo lugar, el artículo analiza el papel de la Unión Europea en el conflicto y las medidas que propone para contribuir a su resolución en el marco de la relación que la Unión mantiene con los dos Estados implicados en el mismo, con los que colabora a través de la Política de Vecindad y la Asociación Oriental. Finalmente, el trabajo presenta una serie de consideraciones a modo de conclusión en las que se destaca el papel que la Unión Europea puede desempeñar en el futuro en relación con este conflicto.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, European Union, Partnerships, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Europe, Caucasus, Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Nagorno-Karabakh

1196. From the Barcelona Process to the New Agenda for the Mediterranean: In Search of an Appropriate Model of Cooperation/Del Proceso de Barcelona a la nueva agenda para el Mediterráneo: En busca de un modelo apropiado de cooperación

Author:: Antonio Blanc and Eimys Ortíz
Publication Date:: 10-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:: Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:: This article analyses the Euro-Mediterranean relations in its twenty-fifth anniversary since the launch of the Barcelona Process in 1995 until its last review, the New Mediterranean Agenda. The EuroMediterranean policy is characterised by the search for an appropriate cooperation model and due to that fact, it has gone through different stages without achieving tangible results. The successive initiatives, the European Neighbourhood Policy and the Union for the Mediterranean, are mainly based on internal events that required updating their relationship with the region, including parameters that were difficult to reach as well. After examining the different policies, the article tries to explain whether the New Agendal will continue to make a contribution to its decline or can reactivate the common vision for a stable, secure and prosperous Mediterranean./El presente artículo analiza las relaciones euro-mediterráneas en los veinticinco años transcurridos desde el lanzamiento del Proceso de Barcelona en 1995 hasta su última revisión, la Nueva Agenda Mediterránea. La política euro-mediterránea se caracteriza por la búsqueda de un modelo apropiado de cooperación que ha pasado por distintas etapas desde la Conferencia de Barcelona sin lograr resultados tangibles. Las sucesivas iniciativas, la Política Europea de Vecindad y la Unión por el Mediterráneo, parten principalmente de acontecimientos internos que exigen actualizar su relación con la región, así como de parámetros de difícil alcance. Tras examinar las distintas políticas, el trabajo aborda si la Nueva Agenda continuará incurriendo en el declive o puede reactivar la visión común de un Mediterráneo estable, seguro y próspero.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:: Europe and Mediterranean

1197. Great Expectations and a Missed Opportunity. The Special Tribunal For Lebanon and the Objectives of the United Nations Security Council. A Critical Perspective/Grandes expectativas y una oportunidad perdida. El tribunal especial para el Líbano y los objetivos del Consejo de Seguridad de Naciones Unidas. Una mirada crítica

Author:: María Torres Pérez
Publication Date:: 10-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:: Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:: Among the various ad hoc international criminal tribunals that have been established since the end of the twentieth century, the Special Tribunal for Lebanon stands out for its singularity, both at the jurisdictional level and for its contribution to the treatment of victims. The work of the Special Tribunal for Lebanon began in 2009, delivering its first sentence on 18 August 2020. Through its constitution, the United Nations Security Council sought not to abandon the path initiated in 1993 with the creation of the Yugoslavia and Rwanda tribunals; however, the result has not been as expected. This article aims to analyze the peculiarities of the Tribunal and its work, making a critical analysis of it, considering it as a lost opportunity for the reconstruction process in Lebanon./Entre los diversos tribunales penales internacionales ad hoc que se han creado desde finales del siglo XX, el Tribunal Especial para el Líbano destaca por su particularidad, tanto a nivel jurisdiccional como por su contribución al tratamiento de las víctimas. La labor del Tribunal Especial para el Líbano comenzó en 2009, dictando su primera sentencia de instancia el 18 de agosto de 2020. Mediante su constitución, el Consejo de Seguridad de Naciones Unidas apostó por no abandonar el camino iniciado en 1993 con la creación de los tribunales de Yugoslavia y Ruanda; sin embargo, el resultado no ha sido el esperado. Este trabajo pretende analizar las peculiaridades del Tribunal y su trabajo, realizando un análisis crítico del mismo como oportunidad perdida para el proceso de reconstrucción del Líbano.
Topic:: International Law, United Nations, History, Impunity, and UN Security Council
Political Geography:: Yugoslavia, Lebanon, and Rwanda

1198. Saudi Arabia: A Colossus with Clay Feets/Arabia Saudí: Un coloso con los pies de barro

Author:: Eugenia López-Jacoiste Díaz
Publication Date:: 10-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:: Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:: The political-religious foundation of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is Wahhabism that marks its identity, society and politics. The Al Saud dynasty defends and expands Sunni Islam in the region and beyond its borders. In order to understand the interests and objectives of Saudi foreign policy, this article analyzes the main geopolitical elements at the service of the stability and hegemony of the Al Saud house in the most turbulent region of the Middle East. The Saudi government is developing a foreign policy, unsuspected in the past, to maintain its historic alliance with Washington, despite the ups and downs, and to transform the old rivalries between Riyadh and Tehran into new opportunities, including with Israel. This change in Saudi foreign policy is due to the controversial Crown Prince Mohamed bin Salman who knows how to take advantage of the changing regional geopolitics and Saudi financial instruments, but also the military and technological in favor of a more proactive and modern Saudi Arabia, despite his weaknesses./El fundamento político-religioso del Reino de Arabia Saudí es el wahabismo que marca su identidad, su sociedad y su política. La dinastía Al Saud defiende y expande el islam sunní en la región y fuera de sus fronteras. Para poder entender los intereses y objetivos de la política exterior saudí, este artículo analiza los principales elementos geopolíticos al servicio de la estabilidad y hegemonía de la casa Al Saud en la región más convulsa de Oriente Medio. El Gobierno saudí está desarrollando una política exterior, insospechada en el pasado para mantener su histórica alianza con Washington, a pesar de los altibajos, y transformar las viejas rivalidades entre Riad y Teherán en nuevas oportunidades, incluso con Israel. Este cambio en la política exterior saudí se debe al controvertido Príncipe Heredero Mohamed bin Salmán que sabe aprovechar la cambiante geopolítica regional y los instrumentos financieros saudíes, pero también los militares y tecnológicos a favor de una Arabia Saudí más proactiva y moderna, a pesar de sus debilidades.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Government, Oil, Military Affairs, Geopolitics, and Wahhabism
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, Israel, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Persian Gulf, and United States of America

1199. President Biden’s Challenges in the Middle East after Former President Trump’s successes (?). From Trump to Biden: Continuity or Discontinuity?/Los retos del presidente Biden en el Medio Oriente tras los ¿éxitos? obtenidos por el ex -presidente Trump. De Trump a Biden ¿ruptura o continuidad?

Author:: Romualdo Bermejo García
Publication Date:: 10-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:: Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:: The Middle East has recently seen a few bright spots in Arab Israeli relations, as evidenced by the wellknown Abraham Accords, led by former President Donald Trump and former Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. There remain, however, two major unresolved issues: one is that of Iran and the armed groups massively supported by Tehran, such as Hamas, Hezbollah and others that are beginning to have a certain relevance in both Iraq and Syria, as highlighted by international news; and the other, which is more defined, concerns the issue of Iran’s nuclear programme, an aspect that is currently being addressed in the Vienna nuclear negotiations, following the Donald Trump withdrawal from the July 2015 nuclear deal. This highlights the fact that Iran has become one of the most important players in the region and Israel continues to keep a close eye on its activities, not only nuclear, but also those of the various armed groups under its economic, military and political patronage./La zona del Medio Oriente ha encontrado en los últimos tiempos unos vigorosos rayos de luz en las relaciones árabes-israelíes, como lo demuestran los ya conocidos Acuerdos de Abraham, liderados por el ya ex-presidente Donald Trump y por el también ya ex-primer ministro israelí Benjamin Netanyahu. Quedan, sin embargo, dos grandes temas muy importantes sin resolver: uno de ellos es el de Irán y los grupos armados apoyados masivamente por Teherán, como Hamás, Hezbolláh y otros que empiezan a tener una cierta relevancia tanto en Irak como en Siria, como lo pone de relieve la actualidad internacional; y el otro, que es más preciso, atañe a la cuestión del programa nuclear iraní, aspecto que se está tratando actualmente en las negociaciones nucleares de Viena, tras la retirada de los Estados Unidos del acuerdo nuclear de julio de 2015 por parte de Donald Trump. Esto pone de manifiesto que Irán se ha convertido en uno de los actores más importantes de la zona, lo que trae consigo que Israel siga vigilando de cerca sus actividades, y no solo las nucleares, sino también la de los diversos grupos armados que se encuentran bajo su patrocinio económico, militar y político.
Topic:: Nuclear Weapons, Sanctions, Negotiation, Hezbollah, International Court of Justice (ICJ), Donald Trump, Hamas, and Joe Biden
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, and Israel

1200. Impact of COVID-19 in Peru: Unpredictability, inefficiency and institutional crisis/Impacto del COVID-19 en Perú: Imprevisión, ineficiencia y crisis institucional

Author:: Paz Milet and Gabriela Bravo
Publication Date:: 05-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:: Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:: This article addresses the degree of institutional preparedness of Peru to deal with the effects of the pandemic COVID-19. It is argued that the country was not in the best condition to face this health phenomenon, in a context of institutional weakness, economic stagnation and the inability to overcome some of its historical and permanent structural deficiencies. Despite the political efforts made and the measures adopted, all these have failed to have a positive impact on the population due to the structural fragility of the health system. In addition, Peru had to face an internal political crisis that negatively affected the strategic direction of the pandemic. The armed forces have played a limited role essentially reduced to logistical support. All in all, a dissociation between restrictive policies and the results obtained have been identified, due to structural deficiencies. of the health system to cope with the pandemic./El presente artículo aborda el grado de preparación institucional del Perú para enfrentar los efectos de la pandemia conocida como COVID-19. Se plantea que el país no estaba en la mejor condición para hacer frente a este fenómeno sanitario, en un contexto de debilidad institucional, estancamiento económico y con la incapacidad de superar algunas de sus deficiencias estructurales históricas y permanentes. Pese a los esfuerzos políticos desarrollados y las medidas adoptadas, estas no han logrado tener un impacto positivo en la población por la fragilidad estructural del sistema de salud. Adicionalmente, el Perú ha debido enfrentar una crisis política interna que ha afectado negativamente el direccionamiento estratégico de la pandemia en que las fuerzas armadas han tenido un papel limitado a capacidades logísticas. Con todo, se identifica una disociación entre las políticas restrictivas y los resultados obtenidos, producto de la incapacidad de las deficiencias estructurales.
Topic:: Fragile States, Institutions, COVID-19, and Political Crisis
Political Geography:: Latin America and Peru

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