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1. East Vs. West: A New Cold War?

Author:
Richard Sakwa
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Institution:
Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Abstract:
Cold War has returned to dominate international politics. Expectations that the end of the Cold War in 1989 would lead to a more inclusive and comprehensive peace seems to be practically failed, and instead, by 2014, the centenary of the start of the First World War, Europe was once again wracked by conflict. On the one side, the U.S.-led Political West shaped by the Cold War remained the main protagonist. In contrast, on the other hand, a much-weakened Russia took the place of the former Soviet Union, now accompanied by a China intent on restoring its status as a great power. The article examines why a new cold war emerges again, and analyses how such a ‘Cold War II’ differs from the original.
Topic:
Cold War, Hegemony, Conflict, and Rivalry
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Europe, Asia, North America, and United States of America

2. U.S. Foreign Policy an the War in Ukraine

Author:
James A. Russell
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Institution:
Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Abstract:
This essay assesses the impact of the war in Ukraine on American foreign policy. The thesis provided here is that the war in Ukraine must be viewed as a painful but maybe necessary shock therapy that has helped to relieve the residual hangover from America’s two-decade-long, ill-advised war on terror and the lost wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. In parallel, the war has served as a vehicle for the reinvigoration of national grand strategy and the foreign policy that provides the vital connective tissue between ends, ways, and means. In this trinity, the foreign policy represents an instrumental tool to connect the assumptions that undergird grand strategy to the practical, real-world of international politics.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Military Strategy, Hegemony, Strategic Interests, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

3. The Role of Democracy Discourse in the Emerging "New Cold War"

Author:
Emre Demir and Sirma Altun
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Institution:
Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Abstract:
In the first three decades after China initiated reform and opening-up policies in 1978, its relations with the United States (U.S.) improved steadily. However, in the post-2007/2008 global financial crisis period, both countries’ attitudes toward each other began to change. Particularly since the Trump administration, as the U.S. started to define China as its main competitor, their bilateral relations deteriorated further. As a result, scholars, diplomats, and politicians worldwide began to talk about the emergence of a new Cold War between China and the U.S., encompassing economic, ideological, military, and political aspects. The ideological aspect of this emerging “new Cold War” revolves around the discourse of democracy.
Topic:
Cold War, Hegemony, Democracy, and Rivalry
Political Geography:
China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

4. Washington Zeroes in on Manila

Author:
Catharin Dalpino
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Comparative Connections
Institution:
Pacific Forum
Abstract:
With an apparent renaissance in the US-Philippine alliance, spurred by rising tensions in the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait, the Biden administration ramped up diplomatic activity with Manila as the two countries moved toward an official visit from President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos, Jr., in May. At the same time, the 42nd iteration of Cobra Gold, which returned to full strength for the first time since the 2014 coup in Bangkok, suggested momentum in the US-Thailand alliance, albeit with a lower profile. While the international environment continued to be roiled by US-China rivalry, the Russian war in Ukraine, and high food and commodity prices, Southeast Asia’s own internal turmoil was evident. The junta in Myanmar extended the state of emergency and stepped up aerial bombing of areas held by the opposition and armed ethnic groups. As Indonesia takes up the ASEAN chair, prospects for implementing the Five-Point Consensus Plan are dim, if not dead. Vietnam and Thailand began leadership transitions—Hanoi with an anti-corruption purge and Bangkok with the launch of general elections—while Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen continued to eviscerate the opposition ahead of his near-certain re-election in July. As Southeast Asian leaders work to grow their economies in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, competition among them to attract foreign domestic investment is intensifying, particularly in technology and electric vehicles. In the meantime, the region awaits the conclusion of negotiations for the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF), which will offer insight into Washington’s vision of an economic order for the region.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, and Alliance
Political Geography:
Philippines, Asia-Pacific, and United States of America

5. An Even Larger Role in Everything

Author:
Akhil Ramesh and Michael Rubin
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Comparative Connections
Institution:
Pacific Forum
Abstract:
On May 24, 2022, President Joe Biden met Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on the sidelines of the Quad summit in Tokyo. According to the White House readout of the meeting, “The leaders reviewed the progress made in the US-India Comprehensive Global Strategic Partnership. They committed to deepen the Major Defense Partnership, encourage economic engagement that benefits both countries, and expand partnership on global health, pandemic preparedness, and critical and emerging technologies.” While such statements are often aspirational and lag in implementation, the first four months of 2023 show the renaissance in US-India ties to be real.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Science and Technology, Bilateral Relations, Elections, and Partnerships
Political Geography:
South Asia, India, North America, and United States of America

6. US-Korea Relations: Nuclear New Year

Author:
Mason Richey
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Comparative Connections
Institution:
Pacific Forum
Abstract:
South Korean president Yoon Suk-yeol has tried to make a priority of transforming the traditional US-South Korea military alliance into a “global, comprehensive strategic alliance” with increasing ambitions beyond hard security issues on the Korean Peninsula and in Northeast Asia in general. Yoon and his foreign policy team get an “A” for vision and effort—joining the NATO Asia-Pacific Four (AP4) and releasing an Indo-Pacific Strategy in 2022 are evidence. But, like Michael Corleone trying to go legit in The Godfather III, every time they make progress getting out, they get pulled back into the Peninsula. To wit, during the first trimester of 2023 Korean Peninsula security issues again commanded disproportionate attention from Seoul and Washington. The proximate cause for this dynamic is North Korea’s mafioso-in-chief, Kim Jong Un, who started 2023 with a January 1 missile launch and kept at it throughout the winter. This, of course, followed record-breaking 2022 North Korean missile tests and demonstrations, which totaled approximately 70 launches of around 100 projectiles. Given the near-zero prospects for North Korean denuclearization and the growing arsenal at Pyongyang’s disposal, it is understandable that any South Korean president would be distracted from interests further afield. The audacious nature of Yoon’s re-focusing on South Korean security was surprising and controversial, however. On January 11, apparently fed up with perceived South Korean vulnerability to its nuclear-armed consanguine, and perhaps irritated with the Biden administration’s slow realization of this South Korean sentiment, he made a pronouncement that no democratic leader in Seoul has ever made publicly before: he stated that South Korea—which benefits from US extended nuclear deterrence—could still consider acquiring its own nuclear weapons, if “North Korean provocations continued intensifying.” This set off a diplomatic kerfuffle that resonated—on both sides of the 38th parallel, as well as in Washington and Beijing—for much of the rest of the January-April reporting period. Given the provocative nature of Yoon’s statement, the South Korean presidential office later backtracked, “clarifying” that Yoon was simply expressing his “firm commitment to defending the nation” against North Korea’s nuclear threats, and while the “worst case scenario must be taken into consideration,” “the principle of abiding by the [Nuclear] Nonproliferation Treaty holds.” In any event, Washington took notice of its anxious ally, responding with demonstrations of commitment to extended deterrence for South Korea—including a visit by Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin and strategic asset deployments to South Korea. All this was in addition to regular combined military exercises and naval exercises featuring US aircraft carrier strike groups. Washington also consented to more bilateral consultation with Seoul regarding the US nuclear umbrella. The saga has concluded—at least for now—with the Washington Declaration promulgated at the Biden-Yoon summit in late April. The Washington Declaration promises tightened US-South Korea extended deterrence coordination and consultation, while the leaders’ summit—in the context of Yoon’s state visit to celebrate 70 years of US-South Korea alliance relations—functioned as a renewal of Washington-Seoul ties. These ties are now perhaps as strong as they have ever been. If Pyongyang has reckoned that increased belligerence would decouple the US-South Korea alliance, it has seemingly miscalculated.
Topic:
Security, Nuclear Weapons, Bilateral Relations, Alliance, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:
Asia, South Korea, North America, and United States of America

7. US-China Effort to Set “Guardrails” Fizzles with Balloon Incident

Author:
Sourabh Gupta
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Comparative Connections
Institution:
Pacific Forum
Abstract:
The proposed “guardrail” that Joe Biden and Xi Jinping sought to erect last fall in Bali failed to emerge in the bitter aftermath of a wayward Chinese surveillance balloon that overflew the United States and violated its sovereignty. Though Antony Blinken and Wang Yi met on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference afterward, aspersions cast by each side against the other, including a series of disparaging Chinese government reports, fed the chill in ties. Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen’s meeting with House Speaker Kevin McCarthy during the return leg of her US transit added to bilateral and cross-strait tensions and were met with Chinese sanctions. Issues pertaining to Taiwan, be it arms sales or a speculated Chinese invasion date of the island, remained contentious. The administration’s attempt to restart constructive economic reengagement with China, including via an important speech by US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, appears to have fallen on deaf ears in Beijing. Following the Biden-Xi meeting on Nov. 14 on the sidelines of the G20 Leaders Summit in Bali, Indonesia, US-People’s Republic of China relations were transitioning to an improving track—or so it seemed. US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin met with his Chinese counterpart, Defense Minister Wei Fenghe, on the sidelines of the ASEAN Defense Ministers” Meeting-Plus meeting in Cambodia on Nov. 22. On Dec. 11-12, US Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs Daniel Kritenbrink held “candid, in-depth and constructive” talks in Beijing. On Jan. 18, Secretary Yellen had a “candid, substantive, and constructive conversation” with departing Vice-Premier Liu He in Zurich ahead of the World Economic Forum in Davos. Hours before Secretary Blinken was due to board a flight to Beijing on Feb. 3, which would have been the highest-ranking contact between the two sides since the Bali meeting, the budding rapprochement came to a screeching halt.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Economics, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

8. The US and Japan Build Multilateral Momentum

Author:
Sheila A. Smith and Charles McClean
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Comparative Connections
Institution:
Pacific Forum
Abstract:
2023 brings a renewed focus on the US-Japan partnership as a fulcrum of global and regional diplomacy. With an eye to the G7 Summit in Hiroshima in mid-May, Prime Minister Kishida Fumio began the year with visits to G7 counterparts in Europe and North America. Later in the spring, he toured Africa in an effort to gain understanding from countries of the Global South. The Joe Biden administration looks ahead to a lively economic agenda, as it hosts the APEC Summit in November on the heels of the G20 Summit in New Delhi in September. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan laid out in detail the economic ambitions of the Biden national strategy on April 27, giving further clarity to how the administration’s foreign policy will meet the needs of the American middle class. Regional collaboration continues to expand. Both leaders will gather in Australia on May 24 as Prime Minister Anthony Albanese hosts the third in-person meeting of the leaders of the Quad. Also noteworthy in this first quarter of 2023 is the progress in ties between Japan and South Korea. Trilateral consultations began early in the Biden administration, and after the election of President Yoon Suk Yeol last spring, the groundwork for resolving the many difficulties in the bilateral relationship began. This spring, President Yoon and Prime Minister Kishida revealed their progress in a set of visits to each other’s capitals. A trilateral summit is planned for the G7 Summit, which Yoon will attend as an observer. Overshadowing this active multilateral calendar is the continuing war in Ukraine. Both Kishida and Biden have visited President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in his capitol. The United States and Japan remain stalwart supporters of the Ukrainian defense effort as Ukrainians prepare for the spring counteroffensive against Russian forces. Yet questions have arisen within the US Congress over the scale and duration of military aide provided to Zelenskyy. Interestingly, there remains little doubt about the Kishida Cabinet’s support of Ukraine. While Japan does not provide lethal aid, it has joined in solidarity with European nations to contribute to the complex humanitarian relief needed by the Ukrainian people. Political choices will also shape the remainder of the year. President Biden on April 25 announced his run for a second term in the 2024 election. The Republican field of candidates begins to emerge with former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley officially declaring her candidacy on Feb. 14, and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, while not yet official, has been the center of media attention. Former President Donald Trump has already begun his rallies, having announced his candidacy on Nov. 15. In Tokyo, talk of a national snap election continues, with the latest rumors suggesting that Kishida, coming off his party’s good showing in local elections in April, might opt for a ballot after the G7 Summit in Hiroshima.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, and Multilateral Relations
Political Geography:
Japan, Asia, North America, and United States of America

9. Tensions Intensify as Taiwan-US IT Cooperation Blossoms

Author:
David J. Keegan and Kyle Churchman
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Comparative Connections
Institution:
Pacific Forum
Abstract:
In the wake of then US Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan in August, China’s extensive military exercises continued to impose a more threatening “new normal” in the Taiwan Strait. Taiwan continued to be the focus of heated public exchanges between the US and China. US President Biden said, for a fourth time, that the US would defend Taiwan and added an inflammatory codicil that independence was for Taiwan to decide. At the 20th Congress of the Chinese Communist Party, General Secretary Xi Jinping promised China would strive for peaceful reunification with Taiwan but would not renounce use of force. On Dec. 23, Biden signed the Taiwan Enhanced Resilience Act and a State Department appropriation providing $2 billion in loans for Taiwan to purchase US equipment. Two days later, China sent 71 military aircraft and seven ships to intimidate Taiwan, its largest-ever one-day exercise near the island. Two days later, Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen announced that Taiwan would extend its military conscription to 12 months. TSMC formally broke ground for the first of two factories in the US, a $40 billion investment. The new year will see Taiwan’s DPP and KMT parties launch their presidential election campaigns, debating visions for cross-Strait defense, dignity, and dialogue as the Chinese military appears determined to intensify its intimidation.
Topic:
Defense Policy, International Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, Information Technology, and Military
Political Geography:
China, Taiwan, Asia, and United States of America

10. Xi Moderates to US and Others Amid Continued Competition

Author:
Robert G. Sutter and Chin-Hao Huang
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Comparative Connections
Institution:
Pacific Forum
Abstract:
Southeast Asia was the center of international attention in November as regional and global leaders gathered at the G20 conference in Indonesia, which took place between the annual ASEAN-hosted summit meetings in Cambodia and the yearly APEC leaders meeting in Thailand. Acute China-US rivalry loomed large in media and other forecasts, warning of a clash of US-Chinese leaders with negative implications feared in Southeast Asia and elsewhere. The positive outcome of the Biden-Xi summit at the G20 conference and related actions eased tensions, which was welcomed, particularly in Southeast Asia, but the implications for the US and allies’ competition with China remain to be seen. Tensions over disputes in the South China Sea continued unabated. President Xi Jinping made his first trip to a major international gathering at the G20 conference followed by the APEC meeting after more than two years of self-imposed isolation in line with his government’s strict COVID-19 restrictions. His visit occurred against the background of China’s unprecedented military show of force in response to US advances in relations with Taiwan, strident criticism of US efforts to increase influence in Southeast Asia and elsewhere, and remarkable warnings about China’s determination to resist adverse international threats in his landmark report to the 20thCommunist Party Congress in October validating his third term as party leader. Representing the United States at the ASEAN and G20 summits, President Joseph Biden gave no ground on Taiwan or other sensitive issues, increased US support for the island government, signed two massive bills calling for over half a trillion dollars of spending to compete with China on high technology and climate change, and imposed strict export controls on advanced computer chip technology to undermine China’s high technology ambitions. Because of protocol and scheduling, Xi and Biden overlapped only at the G20 meeting, making the Xi-Biden summit meeting on the sidelines of that conference a focus of attention. As discussed in the US-China chapter of this edition of Comparative Connections, Xi adopted a more moderate approach in dealing with the United States. He notably ended China’s past insistence that the United States change its policies toward China before China would agree to the Biden government’s longstanding request to work with China to set guardrails to manage US-China rivalry in ways that would avoid military conflict. The Chinese leader’s new approach was accompanied by public diplomacy efforts that were remarkable because they were starkly contrary to Chinese diplomacy throughout 2022. Chinese representatives and commentary endeavored to persuade audiences in Southeast Asia and elsewhere that Xi’s report and recent strident Chinese commentary and provocative actions did not represent China’s intentions. They corrected such “misperceptions” and advised that Chinese intentions were moderate, accommodating, and positive, focused on constructive outreach for cooperation in Southeast Asia and elsewhere. In addition to the United States, targets for this call to improve ties included US allies and partners heretofore strongly criticized by China for their policies in Southeast Asia and elsewhere, notably Japan and Australia.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Leadership, Strategic Competition, Rivalry, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
China, Asia, Southeast Asia, and United States of America

11. US-Southeast Asia Relations: External Order, Inner Turmoil

Author:
Catharin Dalpino
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Comparative Connections
Institution:
Pacific Forum
Abstract:
In November three ASEAN states—Cambodia, Indonesia, and Thailand—drew favorable marks for their chairmanship of high-profile regional and global meetings: the East Asia Summit and ASEAN Leaders Meeting; the G20 Summit; and the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) meeting, respectively. Helming these meetings was particularly challenging for Southeast Asian leaders—who are naturally inclined to avoid strong alignments with external powers—in the current global environment of heightened tensions between the United States and China in the Taiwan Strait and the war in Ukraine. However, the year was a difficult period for ASEAN internally, with uneven economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic and the intractable conflict in Myanmar. The last quarter of 2022 saw two political shifts in the region: in general elections in Malaysia, Anwar Ibrahim achieved a longstanding ambition to become prime minister but will have to manage a difficult coalition to retain power. At the year’s end, Laos changed prime ministers, but it is not clear if the transition will solve the country’s debt problems, which were revealed to be more dire than estimated.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, Diplomacy, Alliance, ASEAN, and Decarbonization
Political Geography:
Southeast Asia and United States of America

12. US-India Relations: Friends with Benefits

Author:
Akhil Ramesh
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Comparative Connections
Institution:
Pacific Forum
Abstract:
2022 was a challenging year, not just for US-India relations, but for every India analyst trying to explain the Indian government’s position on the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Explaining to a non-IR audience India’s history of nonalignment during the Cold-War era and its current policy of multi-alignment was not a gratifying endeavor. While the last four months of 2022 did not have the friction and stress-tests as the first four of 2022 or the slow and steady expansion of relations that followed between May and September, they certainly had multiple surprising events that could make them the halcyon months of 2022. In mid-November, the US and Indian armies engaged in a military exercise at Auli, not far from the Line of Actual Control (LAC) separating Indian-held and Chinese-held territory. While the US and Indian armies have engaged in exercises prior to 2022, this proximity to the Indo-China border is a first. A month later, in another first, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen traveled to India to meet Indian Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman to expand the US-India “Indo-Pacific partnership.” Yellen characterized India as a “friendly shore” for supply chain diversification and as the indispensable partner for the US. A country that earned notoriety for its bureaucracy and trade protectionism over the years was suddenly characterized as “friendly”; one that was highly skeptical of foreign militaries on its shores was actively engaging the US military at one of its most sensitive and tempestuous borders. The primary catalyst for this sea change has been shared concerns over a rising, authoritarian, and hegemonic China. The events of the last four months, while making India’s multi-alignment labored, also made it abundantly clear that the US-India relations will continue to expand to maintain a free and open Indo-Pacific.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, International Cooperation, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
China, South Asia, India, North America, and United States of America

13. US-Korea Relations: Everything Everywhere All At Once, Extremely Close and Incredibly Loud

Author:
Mason Richey and Rob York
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Comparative Connections
Institution:
Pacific Forum
Abstract:
Continuing a trend from the May-August reporting period, the final reporting period of 2022 in US-Korea relations was marked by an accelerated ratcheting up of tension. In short, numerous problems reared up on the Korean Peninsula from September-December, and good solutions have been few. And not only does this describe relations between the US and North Korea, but in their own, friendly way also the situation between Washington and Seoul, whose frequent invocations of rock-solid alliance cooperation belie unease about crucial areas of partnership. Two critical issues have been increasingly affecting the US-South Korea alliance in 2022, with the September-December period no exception. First, South Korea desires ever more alliance-partner defense and security reassurance from the US in the face of a growing North Korean nuclear threat and Chinese revisionism. Yet the US has downward-trending limits on credible reassurance as North Korea masters nuclear weapons technology that threatens US extended nuclear deterrence for South Korea. The US also faces less geopolitical pressure to effusively reassure its Indo-Pacific allies—including South Korea—as China grows to menace the regional order and the US consequently faces lower risk of ally hedging or realignment.
Topic:
Security, Nuclear Weapons, Bilateral Relations, Alliance, and Military
Political Geography:
Asia, South Korea, North Korea, and United States of America

14. US-Japan Relations: Ramping Up Diplomacy and Defense Cooperation

Author:
Sheila A. Smith and Charles McClean
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Comparative Connections
Institution:
Pacific Forum
Abstract:
In the wake of the death of former Prime Minister Abe Shinzo, the fall brought unexpectedly turbulent politics for Prime Minister Kishida Fumio. In the United States, however, President Joe Biden welcomed the relatively positive outcome of the midterm elections, with Democrats retaining control over the Senate and losing less than the expected number of seats in the House. Diplomacy continued to be centered on various impacts of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, but both Biden and Kishida focused their attention on a series of Asian diplomatic gatherings to improve ties. Chinese President Xi Jinping’s attendance at the G20 Meeting in Bali and APEC gathering in Bangkok proffered the opportunity finally for in-person bilateral meetings for both leaders. Finally, Japan’s long awaited strategic documents were unveiled in December. A new National Security Strategy (NSS) took a far more sober look at China’s growing influence and included ongoing concerns over North Korea as well as a growing awareness of Japan’s increasingly difficult relationship with Russia. Accompanying the NSS is a 10-year defense plan, with a five-year build-up commitment, that gave evidence that Kishida and his ruling coalition were serious about their aim to spend 2% of Japan’s GDP on its security. The desire for greater lethality was also there, with the inclusion of conventional strike investment.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Alliance, and Defense Cooperation
Political Geography:
Japan, Asia, North America, and United States of America

15. Impact of economic sanctions on net commodity-producing and net commodity-consuming countries

Author:
Sergio R. Vale and Eduardo Viola
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional (RBPI)
Institution:
Instituto Brasileiro de Relações Internacionais (IBRI)
Abstract:
The war in Ukraine has had a marked economic impact. However, since Russia is a net producer of important commodities, the impact of sanctions on its economy was less than expected. But what would happen if there was a war involving a country that was a net importer of commodities? In the case of a possible China-US conflict over Taiwan, the impact on the world economy would be different, with a deeper recession around the world, but the impact on the Brazilian economy would still be positive on account of the possibility that would remain of agricultural exports to China.
Topic:
Agriculture, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Sanctions, Commodities, and Exports
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Europe, Ukraine, Taiwan, Asia, North America, and United States of America

16. What Losing the Iran Deal Could Mean for the Region

Author:
Seyed Hossein Mousavian
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:
School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:
If President Joe Biden is seeking to restore sustainable peace and security in the region, he has to start with reviving the JCPOA
Topic:
Security, Nuclear Weapons, Military Strategy, Peace, JCPOA, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

17. United States Foreign Policy Towards Jordan From the Political and Security Dimensions from 1990 to 2017

Author:
Ala Alkhawaldeh and Ayman Hayajneh
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
Institution:
Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Abstract:
Foreign policy cannot be dissociated from what we call the theory of international relations (Holsti, 2015). Relations between Jordan and the United States go back to 1949 when diplomatic relations were first established. The United States contributed to providing economic and military assistance to Jordan for the first time since 1951 and 1957, respectively, and has continued until now. The United States and Jordan share the common goals of a comprehensive, just, and lasting peace in the Middle East and to end violent extremism that threatens the security of Jordan, the region, and the world at large. The peace process and counterterrorism between the two countries aid American interests. The United States has helped Jordan maintain its stability and prosperity through military assistance and close political cooperation (Bush, 2009).This study examines the United States foreign policy towards Jordan from 1990 to 2017. This period witnessed important regional and international political events that significantly impacted American foreign policy in the Arab region and the United States - Jordan in particular. The political events covered in the study have the greatest impact on the development or decline of relations between the two countries in terms of politically and security aspects.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Military Strategy, Hegemony, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

18. Stablecoins, United States Competitiveness, and the Cloud

Author:
Michael B Greenwald
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Institution:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Abstract:
Recent geopolitical events and the overleveraging of U.S. sanctions has strained the relationship between the U.S. dollar and other world financial powers, bringing the current system—fundamentally grounded in the 1944 Bretton Woods Agreement—to a critical inflection point. Although the past 80 years has seen a global financial system that hinged on the chosen policy of the United States, adversaries and allies alike are actively searching for ways to diversify from a dollar-centric system. Simultaneously, the innovation of financial technology has led to the creation of blockchain based, non-state currencies and demand for more efficient settlement of transactions. These trends have given rise to a crucial moment for infrastructure that underpins these innovations: the cloud and U.S. financial policy. In developing a long-term strategy that supports a robust global financial system, policymakers should heed the revolutionary potential of innovation and the cloud, specifically related to stablecoins and Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs).
Topic:
Infrastructure, Digital Currency, Competition, and Stablecoins
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

19. A Wall of Separation Between Money and State: Policy and Philosophy for the Era of Cryptocurrency

Author:
Max Raskin and Richard A. Epstein
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Institution:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Abstract:
Throughout history, there have been two fundamental and interrelated debates over the creation and use of money.1 The first debate is whether money should be created by the market or the state.2 When money is created by private markets, individual currencies oper- ate in competition with each other, such that the value of any given currency is measured by its relative strength against the others. In contrast, under a system where the government has a monopoly over the supply of money, the sound- ness of the currency is ensured, if at all, by a set of institutional constraints to prevent its debasement. A second debate arises between those who believe that money should be a tool used by policymakers to achieve certain political, economic, and social ends and those who believe that money should be a neutral unit of measurement, like inches or kilograms.3 Today, central banks are tasked with mandates to achieve full employment, plug budget deficits, and spur real economic growth. The institutional challenge for governments is to decide how to balance these goals with the need for price stability. Discretion by central bankers with respect to these tradeoffs is intended to allow public officials to operate the system for the public benefit. By the same token, government discretion in the management of money creates the possibility of major failures—such as runaway inflation—if that discretion is misused.
Topic:
Finance, Economy, Central Bank, Currency, Cryptocurrencies, and Bitcoin
Political Geography:
Global Focus and United States of America

20. South Caucasus at the Crossroad of Peace and War

Author:
Farid Shafiyev
Publication Date:
06-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Caucasus Strategic Perspectives
Institution:
Center of Analysis of International Relations (AIR Center)
Abstract:
The current issue of the Caucasus Strategic Perspectives (CSP) journal entitled “South Caucasus at the Crossroad of Peace and War” is dedicated to the different mediation activities between Armenia and Azerbaijan, Armenia’s internationally wrongful acts and foreign policy, Armenia-Azerbaijan peace process, as well as the news initiatives in the South Caucasus region. The CSP’s new issue includes 7 articles. The CSP’s current authors analysed the EU’s and the US’s mediator roles to reconcile Armenia and Azerbaijan, Armenia’s international responsibility in relation to the formerly occupied territories of Azerbaijan, Russia-Armenia relations, the perspective of the Middle Corridor, and Iran-Armenia relations and its implications for Azerbaijan, etc.
Topic:
Nationalism, Territorial Disputes, European Union, Mediation, Peacebuilding, Regional Security, Russia-Ukraine War, and Ecocide
Political Geography:
Russia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, South Caucasus, and United States of America

21. Incivility in Diplomacy as a Reflection of the Crisis in Foreign Policy Culture

Author:
V. Chumakov
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
International Affairs: A Russian Journal of World Politics, Diplomacy and International Relations
Institution:
East View Information Services
Abstract:
The 2020s have been characterized by a profound crisis of confidence in international relations and world politics manifested in the use of political, psychological, and rhetorical methods and techniques that are atypical of traditional diplomatic practices and do not correspond to generally recognized norms of diplomatic protocol. Such manifestations include, for example, the use of unverified information and disinformation, the dissemination of deliberately false information (“fake news”), the unilateral disclosure of confidential face-to-face or telephone conversations to the media, and the publication of diplomatic correspondence not only as an unofficial translation but also as direct copies of informational documents (notes, letters, telegrams, and attachments to them). We also see the use of undiplomatic expressions (accusations, insults, namecalling, threats, blackmail, jokes) against counterpart or senior foreign or international officials, albeit primarily behind their backs, as well personal correspondence between such individuals on publicly available electronic mail services, instant messengers, and social networks.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, NATO, Diplomacy, European Union, OSCE, New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START), and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and United States of America

22. México en la rivalidad China-Estados Unidos: Las limitaciones de China en la competición comercial

Author:
Lucía Ramírez Bolívar, Gleider I. Hernández, and Nalia María Rochín
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:
Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:
El objetivo del artículo es documentar la rivalidad entre China y Estados Unidos en México. Se argumenta que el actual enfrentamiento posee connotaciones geopolíticas y geoeconómicas que tienen implicaciones importantes en el plano global. El artículo explica las peculiaridades de la política comercial de México con respecto a China, los avances y limitaciones en función de los tratados comerciales con Estados Unidos y Canadá. Se realiza un recuento de los principales momentos que han marcado dicha rivalidad y se concluye que, aún en medio de esta pugna por el liderazgo mundial, hasta el momento parece ser que el gobierno mexicano se ha concentrado en consolidar las relaciones con su vecino del Norte, pero es posible que pueda sacar ventaja de estas tensiones, ya que ambos países son de enorme importancia para México.
Topic:
Treaties and Agreements, Hegemony, Geopolitics, Trade Wars, Rivalry, and Geoeconomics
Political Geography:
China, Mexico, and United States of America

23. La puerta de Latinoamérica: Las relaciones de Panamá con Estados Unidos y China, oportunidades y desafíos

Author:
Rodrigo Matías Martín and Guillermo Enrique Boscán
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:
Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:
Este articulo analiza las relaciones de Panamá con China y Estados Unidos, las dos mayores potencias mundiales en la actualidad. En primer lugar, se revisan las relaciones que el país latinoamericano ha tenido con China desde la creación de Panamá como país, llegando hasta el cambio de reconocimiento diplomático en el año 2017, así como las nuevas relaciones con la República Popular China. Tras ello se analizan los desafíos que tiene Panamá en el contexto de sus nuevas relaciones diplomáticas. En la siguiente sección se revisan de igual manera las relaciones históricas entre Panamá y Estados Unidos, llegando hasta el día de hoy, y se analizan las oportunidades que ofrecen los Estados Unidos a Panamá.
Topic:
International Relations, Diplomacy, and Panama Canal
Political Geography:
China, Latin America, Panama, and United States of America

24. El lugar de Venezuela en las restricciones chino-estadounidenses: una mirada desde la prensa española en el marco de la invasión rusa a Ucrania

Author:
Iván Luis Alonso Peláez
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:
Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:
El artículo hace un recorrido histórico para conocer cuál ha sido el papel de Venezuela en el marco de las relaciones chino-estadounidenses, especialmente los cambios ocurridos a partir de 1999 con los gobiernos de Hugo Chávez y Nicolás Maduro. Acorde con lo descrito por la abundante bibliografía sobre el tema, se constata que se ha producido un cambio de roles en el que China progresivamente ha ido ocupando en Venezuela el espacio comercial preferente que tradicionalmente había ostentado Estados Unidos desde el restablecimiento de la Democracia en 1958. A través de un análisis informativo utilizando como fuente un grupo de textos periodísticos publicados en los seis principales diarios de circulación nacional editados en España, se valora cómo la invasión rusa a Ucrania promueve un todavía incipiente deshielo en el curso de las sanciones impuestas por Washington a la industria petrolera venezolana.
Topic:
Oil, Sanctions, Energy Crisis, Newspapers, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Ukraine, South America, Venezuela, and United States of America

25. Perú entre Estados Unidos y China: Adaptación de la política exterior peruana de cara a las divergencias chino-estadounidenses

Author:
Bruno Macciotta Pulisci and Pablo Biderbost
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:
Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:
Desde hace un tiempo China viene compitiendo con Estados Unidos por una posición dominante en el mundo. La competencia es, sobre todo económica, aunque implica, por supuesto, aspectos también políticos, sociales y militares. Una de las regiones más disputadas es, sin duda, América Latina, en la que Estados Unidos pierde cada vez más terreno y China se posiciona como el mayor socio comercial. En este contexto, los países latinoamericanos han tenido que reconfigurar sus políticas exteriores para poder satisfacer sus expectativas de la mano de quien le ofrezca mejores posibilidades. Perú no ha sido una excepción y, de hecho, se ha acercado en los últimos años más a China como principal socio comercial, aunque no ha soltado la mano de Estados Unidos del todo. El presente artículo explora cómo se ha reconfigurado la política exterior peruana de cara a la competencia entre China y Estados Unidos.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Economics, Trade, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:
China, South America, Peru, and United States of America

26. Despliegue del poder blando chino en América Latina y recepción en los países de la región

Author:
Juan Ignacio Brito Munita and Francisco Javier Tagle Montt
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:
Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:
El concepto del poder blando ha cobrado relevancia en Relaciones Internacionales. Asociado típicamente a EE.UU., en los últimos años también China ha promovido su poder blando, llegando a América Latina. Tras revisar las dificultades para acordar una definición del término, esta investigación observa el fenómeno desde una doble perspectiva: por un lado, analiza el despliegue del poder blando chino en la región; por otro, evalúa la respuesta de los países latinoamericanos ante él. Postula que, mientras China usa una definición amplia del poder blando que aplica en la región y la vincula prioritariamente a aspectos de su política doméstica, la recepción de los gobiernos latinoamericanos la hace depender de la variable siguiente: aunque todos acogen la ofensiva económica china y se acercan al gigante asiático, la manera en que reaccionan a ella está condicionada a la postura que mantienen hacia EE.UU.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, Soft Power, and Hard Power
Political Geography:
China, Latin America, and United States of America

27. La política exterior argentina: Equilibrios y continuidades entre China y Estados Unidos

Author:
Florencia Rubiolo and Diego Telias
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:
Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:
La competencia entre Estados Unidos y China en el ámbito comercial, tecnológico y geopolítico tiene repercusiones globales. América Latina, a pesar de una creciente irrelevancia, también es una arena donde estas potencias están compitiendo. Argentina no ha quedado fuera de esta disyuntiva y, al igual que otros países de la región, ha intentado mantener un equilibrio entre ambas potencias, por la importancia que cada una reviste: Estados Unidos en lo financiero y China tanto en lo comercial como en materia de inversiones. En este artículo, a través de un repaso teórico, análisis de documentos oficiales y entrevistas, se analiza la política exterior de Alberto Fernández hacia China en el contexto de las divergencias entre ambos Estados. Concluimos que Argentina ha intentado de manera continua un equilibrio, aunque no implica equidistancia, ante una situación en donde los gobiernos aún no han sido presionados a optar.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Finance, Investment, Trade, Competition, and Equilibrium
Political Geography:
China, Argentina, South America, and United States of America

28. Brasil-Estados Unidos-China en el orden global a principios del siglo XXI: Un análisis desde la perspectiva de la política exterior brasileña

Author:
Maria da Luz Ramos, Carla Guapo da Costa, and Gabrieli Gaio
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:
Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:
Este artículo aborda las diversas orientaciones de la política exterior brasileña (PEB) en el siglo XXI teniendo en cuenta el contexto de las relaciones establecidas entre Brasil y dos importantes actores del orden geopolítico contemporáneo: Estados Unidos (EEUU) y China. Desde una lectura geopolítica Norte-Sur del orden global, se analiza la(s) forma(s) en que el PEB y sus actores construyen sus representaciones sobre dichos actores y estructuran, en consecuencia, su agenda externa en relación con ellos.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, History, Geopolitics, and International Order
Political Geography:
China, Brazil, South America, United States of America, Global South, and Global North

29. Ilusión de la verdad y fake news: Las mentiras repetidas de Hitler, Trump, el independentismo catalán y los bulos de la COVID-19

Author:
Juan Antonio Martínez-Sánchez
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:
Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:
La investigación en psicología ha mostrado que tendemos a dar mayor veracidad a aquella información que recibimos de manera repetida y reiterada. Este sesgo cognitivo, denominado efecto de ilusión de verdad o de verdad ilusoria, se basa en la mayor facilidad que tenemos los seres humanos para procesar cognitivamente la información que nos resulta familiar. En este artículo se describe este sesgo cognitivo y su relación con la propagación de noticias falsas en determinados contextos y acontecimientos sociohistóricos, como instrumento para confundir y manipular a la opinión pública. Entre estos acontecimientos podemos citar las mentiras difundidas por la Administración Bush en 2003 en torno a la supuesta posesión de armas de destrucción masiva por parte de Irak; el uso indiscriminado de fakes por el expresidente de los Estados Unidos, Donald Trump; la campaña de distribución de información falsa por parte del independentismo catalán; y la propagación incontrolada de fakes y bulos en nuestro país durante la pandemia de COVID-19.
Topic:
Public Opinion, COVID-19, Disinformation, Fake News, and Cognitive Bias
Political Geography:
Spain, Global Focus, and United States of America

30. Los retos de Honduras en materia de inseguridad. El dilema de Xiomara Castro ante el populismo punitivo y de la seguridad.

Author:
Javier Lozano Cobos
Publication Date:
10-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:
Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:
La militarización y el combate como herramienta casi exclusiva contra la violencia y la inseguridad ha sido el paradigma de profundo calado en Honduras y la mayor parte de la región, lo que implica la solución a los problemas de inseguridad en clave de guerra. Este conflicto asimétrico entre los grupos criminales y los Estados se recrudeció a raíz de la Guerra contra las Drogas iniciada por el presidente mexicano Calderón, y no es sino la continuación de las diversas guerras contra ya ensayadas en Centroamérica bajo inspiración de los EEUU. Con la llegada al poder de la presidenta hondureña, Xiomara Castro, se advertía un cambio en relación a las políticas de seguridad que no se enfocaran exclusivamente en la mano dura, sino que abordara la reforma integral del Estado priorizando la lucha contra la corrupción y la impunidad, así como la mejora de la calidad de la democracia. Una ola de populismo punitivo recorre la región, pero la mejora en los niveles de inseguridad en Honduras no será sostenible mediante el uso exclusivo de la fuerza ni estados de excepción.
Topic:
Corruption, Human Rights, War on Drugs, Democracy, Geopolitics, Inequality, Populism, and Militarization
Political Geography:
Latin America, Honduras, and United States of America

31. Exploring the Interplay between Trade and Industrial Policies and the Impact of Geopolitics on the Transformation of Taiwan’s Economy

Author:
Ying-Jun Lin
Publication Date:
10-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:
Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:
Over the past five decades, Taiwan's economy has shifted from inward-oriented to outward-oriented, from an import-substitution policy to an export-expansion policy. This evolution in economic structure has also brought about changes in the industrial landscape. While there is an ongoing debate about the respective roles of the market and the government in promoting Taiwan's economic growth, this article argues that the history of Taiwan's economy demonstrates a mutually beneficial relationship between trade and industrial policies. The integration of market forces and government intervention has played a crucial role in Taiwan's economic success story. However, the dynamics between the United States and China, as well as the emergence of new Asian regionalism, pose challenges to Taiwanese industries and enterprises. In conclusion, this article emphasises the importance of refining trade and industrial policies in line with the geopolitical context in order to maintain the momentum of Taiwan's economy.
Topic:
Economics, Bilateral Relations, Trade, and Dependency
Political Geography:
China, Taiwan, Asia, and United States of America

32. CTC Sentinel: August 2023 Issue

Author:
Amira Jadoon, Andrew Mines, Abdul Sayed, Aymenn Jawad Al-Tamimi, Lucas Webber, and Alec Bertina
Publication Date:
08-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
CTC Sentinel
Institution:
The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:
As we enter a new era of calibrated counterterrorism 22 years after 9/11, in this month’s feature article senior analysts at the U.S. National Counterterrorism Center provide a unique window into the U.S. government’s continuing efforts to suppress international terrorism. NCTC director Christine Abizaid writes: “It is clear to me that Americans at home and abroad would be confronted with a more severe terrorism threat if it were not for the sustained and focused efforts of the entire U.S. CT community over the past 22 years. As we approach another 9/11 anniversary, I asked senior analysts from NCTC to share more with the public and academic community about the constant, behind-the-scenes work of CT professionals across the government. It is my hope that, through this product, others can gain a greater degree of insight into what this community regularly confronts in its mission to protect innocent civilians from persistent terrorist adversaries.” In the second feature article, Amira Jadoon, Andrew Mines, and Abdul Sayed examine the enduring threat posed by Islamic State Khorasan (ISK). They write: “An analysis of ISK’s operations, outreach, and clashes with the Taliban indicate that the organization remains capable of strategic adaptation and is only broadening and deepening its influence in the region, posturing to become a truly regional organization. And while the Taliban have demonstrated some capacity in targeting ISK commanders, any security gains are unlikely to hold in the absence of sustained counter-ISK operations.” With the Islamic State earlier this month announcing the appointment of its fifth caliph, Abu Hafs al-Hashimi al-Qurashi, Aymenn Al-Tamimi examines what little is known about the group’s recent paramount leaders. He writes: “Despite the fact that the group’s caliphs are now very much ‘men of the shadows,’ there is little evidence pointing to the prospect of the group’s fragmentation in Iraq, Syria, or elsewhere around the world, with the group’s affiliates seemingly willing to accept successor caliphs about whom little or nothing is publicly known.” Lucas Webber and Alec Bertina profile the Russian Imperial Movement (RIM) and its paramilitary wing, the Russian Imperial Legion (RIL), tracing their involvement in the Ukraine conflict since 2014. They write: “With the Wagner Group’s resources waning, there may be an opportunity for RIM/RIL to deepen its involvement in Russia’s efforts in Ukraine. This could bolster the group’s recruitment, paramilitary capabilities, and thus increase the broader threat it poses. However, the organization may face sanctions in the future from the Russian state if the Kremlin continues to clamp down on Russian pro-war ultra-nationalist elements.”
Topic:
Security, Taliban, Counter-terrorism, Islamic State, 9/11, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Russia, Syria, North America, and United States of America

33. CTC Sentinel: July 2023 Issue

Author:
Matthew Levitt, Lauren Von Thaden, Don Rassler, and Tore Hamming
Publication Date:
07-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
CTC Sentinel
Institution:
The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:
In this month’s feature article, Matthew Levitt and Lauren von Thaden examine the recent heightened smuggling challenge at Israel’s borders with Jordan and Egypt. They write: “The guns and drugs that are flowing into Israel are creating societal problems and public safety issues. The influx of weapons is also a major counterterrorism concern. Smuggled weapons have been a contributing factor to the surge of violence that has plagued the West Bank and Israel.” Building on the assessments of Israeli, Jordanian, and Egyptian officials, their study draws on a dataset they compiled of “105 cases of identified, thwarted, or disrupted weapons or drug smuggling attempts into Israel from March 2021 through April 2023 across all of Israel’s borders.” Our interview is with Ravi Satkalmi, the director of intelligence of the United States Capitol Police. He describes the post-January 6 security challenge as “fundamentally different than that posed by 9/11. The risk is fundamentally different when we’re discussing this kind of normalization of political violence against each other—an erosion of our civic norms—rather than a terrorist organization seeking to launch an attack from overseas.” He says that “our goal is essentially to be the premier intel shop for anti-government violence, full stop. We are sitting on a vast trove of threat information that’s being sent to us by our members’ offices and that we are finding on our own. And the key distinction here is we get it from all sides all the time. We’re protecting Democrats; we’re protecting Republicans, people of all political persuasions.” Satkalmi came out publicly as a gay man while previously working at NYPD and describes the importance of inclusivity in the national security and counterterrorism domain. He notes that “essentially, anybody can experience the challenge of belonging and anybody can be part of the solution. If we can check some of our own assumptions about who may be struggling and who effective change agents can be, we improve the likelihood for progress.” Tore Hamming draws on a new cache of Islamic State documents he collected to examine how the Islamic State’s General Directorate of Provinces has managed the Islamic State’s global network. He writes: “With the deaths of successive caliphs, the territorial demise in the Levant, and the growing importance of its external provinces, the General Directorate of Provinces has emerged as the organization’s most decisive body.” His article “describes the institution’s decisive role in the group’s military and economic affairs and its growing responsibility managing its external attack planning and execution.”
Topic:
Political Violence, Counter-terrorism, Weapons, Islamic State, Borders, LGBT+, Drugs, Smuggling, and January 6
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, North America, Egypt, Jordan, and United States of America

34. CTC Sentinel: June 2023 Issue

Author:
Pierre Boussel, Kristina Hummel, Teddy Macdonald, Ashley A. Mattheis, Amarnath Amarasingam, Graham Macklin, and Marc-Andre Argentino
Publication Date:
06-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
CTC Sentinel
Institution:
The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:
In this month’s feature article, Pierre Boussel provides a deep examination of the Quds Force in Syria. He writes: “The key mission of the Quds Force of the Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) is to defend the Iranian Islamic Revolution and create armed militias in the countries of its ‘Axis of Resistance.’ Its organization is opaque and complex, coordinating combat operations with soft-power actions aimed at, among other initiatives, establishing a Pax Irania in the Middle East, a ‘peace’ of which it is the initiator and guarantor. Although the Quds Force’s apparatus in Syria has been under pressure from Israeli airstrikes, Tehran is sticking to its mission set: infiltrating Syrian civil society and sending fighters to the north, where the civil war will one day end, and to the south, on the edge of the Golan Heights, to establish a base against Israel if necessary.” Our interview is with Brian Nelson, the Under Secretary of the Treasury for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence. He describes how his office “marshals the Department’s intelligence and enforcement functions with the dual aims of safeguarding our financial system against illicit use and also combating corrupt regimes, terrorist facilitators, weapons of mass destruction proliferators, money launderers, drug kingpins, and other national security threats.” On May 6, 2023, Mauricio Garcia, a man with longstanding neo-Nazi views, murdered eight people in a mass shooting at the Allen Premium Outlets mall in Allen, Texas. Ashley Mattheis, Amarnath Amarasingam, Graham Macklin, and Marc-André Argentino look at what led to the attack. They write that the deceased perpetrator “had an ideologically fuzzy tapestry of extreme thoughts tied to rampant violence. He appeared to view neo-Nazis and other members of the extreme far-right as living the ‘real’ masculine ideal in its fullest form by their commitment to generating dominance through violent, radical, racial, and cultural action. This interaction between race and gender is an increasingly present aspect of far-right violence and needs to be better understood.”
Topic:
Counter-terrorism, Financial Crimes, Far Right, Mass Shootings, Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corp (IRGC), Political Extremism, Quds Force, Domestic Terrorism, and Axis of Resistance
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Syria, North America, United States of America, and Golan Heights

35. CTC Sentinel: May 2023 Issue

Author:
Paul Cruickshank, Abdul Sayed, Tore Hamming, Colin Clarke, and Mollie Saltskog
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
CTC Sentinel
Institution:
The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:
With Pakistan engulfed by political and economic turmoil, the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP)—better known as the Pakistani Taliban—is again growing as a threat. In our feature article, Abdul Sayed and Tore Hamming write: “With the Taliban’s victory in Afghanistan, the TTP has obtained new more sophisticated weapons and relocated fighters from Afghanistan to Pakistan and is now turning its focus back to its war against the Pakistani state. Over the past two years, the group has gone through a series of mergers, strengthened its media and operational activities, moved away from the indiscriminate targeting of civilians in suicide attacks, implemented a range of new internal policies centralizing its organizational structure, and settled on a localized strategy. With a solid organizational foundation and its eyes set on the Pakistani state, the TTP appears ready to follow in the footsteps of the Afghan Taliban and take control of territory in Pakistan’s tribal areas. The Taliban victory in Afghanistan has emboldened and strengthened the TTP. With the Taliban in control of Afghanistan and sympathetic to the TTP, the TTP now enjoys a level of ‘strategic depth’ that is arguably unparalleled in its history.” Our interview is with Robin Simcox, the United Kingdom’s Commissioner for Countering Extremism. He talks about tackling violent and non-violent extremism across the ideological spectrum and the findings of the recent independent review of the United Kingdom’s “Prevent” counter-extremism pillar. Wassim Nasr recounts his journey through Idlib in late April and early May 2023 on a reporting assignment for France24. He met with senior leaders of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, including its leader Abu Muhammad al-Julani, who told him they have definitively turned away from global jihad. In Nasr’s words: “You have a core jihadi group with core leaders saying, ‘OK, we don’t want anything to do with international jihad anymore.’ This is unique. It’s never happened before.” Colin Clarke, Mollie Saltskog, Michaela Millender, and Naureen Fink examine the recent targeting of infrastructure by America’s violent far-right. They write that “the increased focus and attacks on critical infrastructure by far-right extremists has the potential to wreak extensive, multifaceted societal disruption and damage, impacting communications, the economy, mobility, and basic human necessities.”
Topic:
Infrastructure, Taliban, Counter-terrorism, Far Right, Jihad, Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), and Political Extremism
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Afghanistan, United Kingdom, South Asia, Middle East, Syria, North America, and United States of America

36. CTC Sentinel: April 2023 Issue

Author:
Christopher Faulkner, Raphael Parens, Marcel Plichta, Paul Cruickshank, and Lucas Webber
Publication Date:
04-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
CTC Sentinel
Institution:
The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:
The late General Wayne A. Downing, a former distinguished chair of the Combating Terrorism Center at West Point, used to tell his colleagues at the Center, “Who thinks wins.” In this month’s feature article, Christopher Faulkner, Raphael Parens, and Marcel Plichta argue that smarter counterterrorism in the Sahel, and across sub-Saharan Africa, can pay big dividends for the United States on the field of great power competition. They write that “the United States is at a critical juncture as it looks to adapt its counterterrorism mission. Nowhere is this more evident than in the Sahel region of Africa, where for the past decade, the United States has relied on France to serve as the counterterrorism lead. Those days are over, at least for now, and the United States is left attempting to balance its counterterrorism efforts in the frame of great power competition. However, too often these two strategic objectives are cast as zero-sum. In reality, U.S. counterterrorism in the Sahel, if appropriately reassessed, designed, and implemented, can generate real wins for the United States as it seeks to counter Russian and Chinese influence in the region. Additionally, and most importantly, it can improve the prospects for stability and security for African states in desperate need of both.” Our interview is with two counterterrorism officials at the Catalan Police – Mossos d’Esquadra: Inspector Lluis Paradell Fernandez, head of the Central Analysis Unit, Intelligence and Counterterrorism Service, and Deputy Inspector Xavier Cortés Camacho, head of the Counterterrorism Central Area. They discuss lessons learned as a result of the 2017 Islamic State-inspired attacks in Barcelona and Cambrils, the evolving threats Catalonia faces, and the importance of “a joined-up effort in working to prevent violent extremism.” Lucas Webber and Daniele Garofalo write that “the Islamic State’s leadership and central propaganda apparatus have been pushing to boost the Somalia branch’s profile, while pro-Islamic State-Somalia groups have been producing media content to help the movement’s message reach Somali, Amharic, Oromo, and Swahili speakers to boost fundraising, recruitment, and violent incitement efforts as well as to grow grassroot support in regions populated by these ethnolinguistic communities.” They argue that “these developments could have regional security implications if the Islamic State is able to strengthen the Somalia branch using these means. Bolstered transnational connections could enable violent incitement and attacks directed into neighboring countries.” Nodirbek Soliev examines digital terror financing by central Asian jihadis. He writes that “their online financing efforts tend to involve three stages. The first is the dissemination of fundraising propaganda and contacting prospective donors via online public accounts. The second is communication via encrypted messaging apps to identify a suitable mode of transaction and to provide security protocols. The third is the transaction itself. Understanding these mechanisms can help enhance relevant countries’ response strategies against terrorism financing risks.”
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Counter-terrorism, Islamic State, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:
Africa, Russia, China, Spain, North America, Somalia, Sahel, and United States of America

37. The Growing Presence of Faith-Based Hospitals in California Restricts Access to Sexual and Reproductive Healthcare

Author:
Yuki Hebner, Kayla Lim, Natalie Gehred, and Zoe Guttman
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
California Journal of Politics and Policy
Institution:
Institute of Governmental Studies, UC Berkeley
Abstract:
Sexual and reproductive healthcare restrictions imposed by faith-based hospitals prevent women, sexual minorities, and gender minorities from accessing the full range of comprehensive healthcare. The share of faith-based hospitals in California has increased rapidly in recent years, but no analysis has been completed to understand their distribution and rate of growth. In this paper, we calculate the percentage of religiously affiliated acute, short-term hospital beds per California county. We find that faith-based hospitals have a majority market share in 17 out of 58 California counties. Furthermore, while the percentage of faith-based hospitals in these counties has remained relatively stable from 2000-2010, this proportion has increased tenfold in the past decade. Our data suggest that the expansion of faith-based healthcare systems in California presents a significant barrier to sexual and reproductive healthcare access.
Topic:
Health Care Policy, Faith, Sexual Health, and Reproductive Health
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

38. Examining Child Deprivation Across California and How It Could Be Addressed with Early Childhood Education

Author:
Jamshid Damooei and Ruslan Korchagin
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
California Journal of Politics and Policy
Institution:
Institute of Governmental Studies, UC Berkeley
Abstract:
Socioeconomic deprivation can create adverse conditions with direct impacts on the development of children. The Early Childhood Deprivation Index (ECDI) shows that there are significant differences in the extent of deprivation of young children (aged 0 to 5 years) among the counties in California. Our research shows that the cost of childcare forms a significant proportion of family income among low- and middle-income families. It indicates that families can pay for a high proportion of such costs if they could access the available federal and state government entitlements. A universal high-quality early childhood education system brings about an efficient way of providing the childcare without the unnecessary cost of employing a means-tested entitlement mechanism. However, even with universal early childhood education, families need support to be able to take advantage of the program, since pre-schooling will be on a voluntary basis. It is therefore important that in addition to providing education universally- communities, and the state make every effort to increase the ability of California families to benefit from this important opportunity.
Topic:
Education, Poverty, Children, Inequality, and Child Care
Political Geography:
California, North America, and United States of America

39. Alaska Electoral Reform: The Top 4 Primary and Ranked-Choice-Voting

Author:
Jerry McBeath
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
California Journal of Politics and Policy
Institution:
Institute of Governmental Studies, UC Berkeley
Abstract:
Why did Alaska develop a top 4, Ranked Choice Voting (RCV) system? This article explains the role a blanket primary played in the evolution of Alaska’s nominating process, beset by demands of the rising Alaska Republican Party (ARP) to protect its rights as a political association while the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision in California v. Jones constrained states’ interests. In 2019-2020 reformers proposed a new system emphasizing a nonpartisan primary with RCV, which political party leaders opposed. Voters narrowly approved the ballot measure in the 2020 general election; it was used for the first time in a special election, and primaries in 2022 and the following general election. The most significant outcomes were the election of Mary Peltola, a Democrat (and Alaska Native) to the state’s sole seat in the U.S. House of Representatives, and reelection of Republican Lisa Murkowski, senior U.S. senator, who defied former President Donald Trump. The article presents information on major political party registrations, showing switching dominance (from Democratic to Republican). However, from 1970 to 2023, a majority of registrants were either nonpartisan or undeclared, a different pattern than found in the other states. The report compares Alaska’s experience with those of other states using RCV, and concludes with a discussion of the broader implications of the Alaska case.
Topic:
Reform, Elections, Voting, and Partisanship
Political Geography:
North America, Alaska, and United States of America

40. Alaska’s New Electoral System: Countering Polarization or “Crooked as Hell”?

Author:
Marie O'Reilly, David Lublin, and Glenn Wright
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
California Journal of Politics and Policy
Institution:
Institute of Governmental Studies, UC Berkeley
Abstract:
In November 2020, Alaska introduced a new electoral system, combining a “top four” all-party primary with ranked choice voting (RCV) general elections. Supporters of this reform claimed it would reduce the partisan polarization and minority victories generated by closed primaries and plurality elections. But critics suggest that it could make polarization worse by weakening political parties—an important check on political extremism. These are high-stakes issues that go well beyond Alaska, given the problem of political polarization and the search for institutional reforms in America today. Placing the Alaskan reforms in this broader national context, this paper presents an initial assessment of Alaska’s new system at the 2022 primary and mid-term elections. We find the reform was both consequential and largely beneficial, promoting greater choice for voters, more accommodative campaigning, and generally more moderate outcomes than likely under the old rules.
Topic:
Reform, Elections, Voting, and Party System
Political Geography:
North America, Alaska, and United States of America

41. Fentanyl Precursors from China and the American Opioid Epidemic

Author:
Martin Purbrick
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
China Brief
Institution:
The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
The fentanyl epidemic was born in America, rose from the supply of precursor chemicals made in China and is now even more destructive as Mexican drug cartels profit from huge demand. The involvement of suppliers of fentanyl precursors from China is a controversial issue that negatively impacts U.S.-China relations. The U.S. government has claimed that not enough is being done to curtail the production and trafficking of fentanyl precursors from China. The People’s Republic of China (PRC) government has claimed that it has taken strong action while also emphasizing China’s antipathy to illegal drugs by falling back on the historical legacy of the harm wrought by Western merchants’ trading of opium with China in the 19th century.
Topic:
Narcotics Trafficking, Organized Crime, Cartels, Opioid Crisis, and Fentanyl
Political Geography:
China, Mexico, and United States of America

42. Ten Years of Democratizing Data: Privileging Facts, Refuting Misconceptions and Examining Missed Opportunities

Author:
Donald Kerwin and Robert Warren
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal on Migration and Human Security
Institution:
Center for Migration Studies of New York
Abstract:
The Center for Migration Studies of New York (CMS) initiated its “Democratizing Data” project in 2013 to make detailed demographic information widely available on the US undocumented, eligible to naturalize, and other non-citizen populations. The paper begins by outlining top-line findings and themes from the more than 30 CMS studies under this project. It then examines and refutes four persistent misconceptions that have inhibited public understanding and needed policy change: (1) migrants never leave the United States; (2) most undocumented migrants arrive by illegally crossing the US-Mexico border; (3) each Border Patrol apprehension translates into a new undocumented resident; and (4) immigrants are less skilled than US-born workers. The paper then offers new analyses in support of select policy recommendations drawn from a decade of democratizing data. It concludes with a short reflection and a case study on the failure of data, evidence-based policy ideas, and national ideals to translate into necessary reform.
Topic:
Border Control, Democracy, Data, and Migrants
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

43. The Polarized American Electorate: The Rise of Partisan-Ideological Consistency and Its Consequences

Author:
Alan I. Abramowitz
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Political Science Quarterly
Institution:
Academy of Political Science
Abstract:
Alan I. Abramowitz presents evidence from American National Election Studies surveys showing that party identification, ideological identification and issue positions have become much more closely connected over the past half century. He argues that as a result, the ideological divide between Democratic and Republican identifiers has widened considerably. The rise of partisan-ideological consistency has contributed to growing affective polarization as well as increasing party loyalty and straight ticket voting.
Topic:
Elections, Ideology, Political Science, Survey, Polarization, Republican Party, and Democratic Party
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

44. The Monroe Doctrine as the Will and Idea of the United States of America

Author:
Boris Martynov
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
International Affairs: A Russian Journal of World Politics, Diplomacy and International Relations
Institution:
East View Information Services
Abstract:
On February 24, 2022, international relations entered a whole new stage of development affecting, albeit to varying degrees, practically all states, with no end in sight. On September 7, 2022, speaking at the Eastern Economic Forum, Russian President Vladimir Putin said that the world was experiencing “fundamental transformations.” Such transformations generally require several years to be completed. By the middle of the third decade of the 21st century, two highly important signs of a new situation have become absolutely clear: a crisis of the old institutions of global governance and the new rising and developing centers of power. At the same time, the opinion that the new is just the “well-forgotten old” is confirmed. This is especially true of the US and its policies.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, History, Governance, Law, Psychology, Identity, and Monroe Doctrine
Political Geography:
Russia, Global Focus, and United States of America

45. ‘Follow the Money’: tracking the diffusion of the American anti-money laundering policy in Latin America (1990s-2000s)

Author:
Mariana Medeiros Bernussi, Priscila Villela, and Lívia Jardinovsky Debatin
Publication Date:
04-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Conjuntura Austral: Journal of the Global South
Institution:
Conjuntura Austral: Journal of the Global South
Abstract:
Given the wide reach of transnational crimes and the illegal flow of money, policing at an international level has become a new frontier for authorities who aim to control these threats. The United States has taken the center stage in this effort ever since the proclamation of the War on Drugs and the continuing War on Terror by promoting the ‘Follow the Money’ principle as a fundamental strategy to be adopted worldwide. The main goal of this paper is to identify the US efforts to formulate and expand the anti-money laundering agenda and policies to Latin America, from the 1990s to the 2000s, mobilizing the policy diffusion approach. By incorporating this thinking tool, we also aim to highlight the United States hegemonic position when establishing agendas and priorities internationally. Therefore, based on a qualitative design, we trace US official documents describing strategies, practices and policies aimed at promoting anti-money laundering policies in Latin American institutions through coercion, competition, learning and emulation mechanisms. As a result, by promoting training events and formulating evaluation mechanisms, the US has stimulated Latin American countries to elaborate their own law enforcement efforts inspired by these same paradigms, indicating that the US uses these anti-money launderinginstruments to promote its policy agenda internationally.
Topic:
War on Drugs, Financial Crimes, War on Terror, Money Laundering, and Policy Diffusion
Political Geography:
Latin America and United States of America

46. The Transition from Nationalism to Islamism in Iran’s Foreign Policy

Author:
M. Reza Pashayi and Timuçin Kodaman
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
AURUM Journal of Social Sciences
Institution:
Altinbas University
Abstract:
The 1979 Iranian Revolution is a multifaceted phenomenon with intricate causes, complex evolution and far-reaching outcomes. Rooted in the Constitutional Revolution of the early 20th century and the rise to power of the Ayatollahs, its beginnings are distinct but interconnected. Unlike many revolutions of the 20th century, the 1979 Iranian Revolution was a departure from the socialist or communist model and manifested itself as a revolt against both Western and Eastern systems, with unique outcomes. The 1979 Revolution shook a traditional and established order and paved the way for the rise of Islamism within a new political framework. This ideology, like its predecessors, adopted a singular leadership based on religious doctrine. To differentiate itself from global and regional powers and focus on its unique revolution, the Iranian regime shaped a foreign policy summarized by the slogan “neither East nor West, the Islamic Republic” and aimed to export this ideology globally. The policy focused primarily on political and ideological interests, resulting in permanent sanctions imposed by the United States. This economic aspect contributes to the changes in Iran’s foreign policy towards the United States, from pre-revolutionary Persian nationalism to post-Revolutionary political Islam, emphasizing its strength and adaptability in the face of external pressures.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, History, Shiism, and Iranian Revolution
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, and United States of America

47. Dominating the Superpower: A Bounded Rationality Approach to Nuclear Proliferation and Inhibition in the U.S. / North Korea Dyad

Author:
Sercan Canbolat and Stephen Benedict Dyson
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:
International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:
Why was the United States, despite its overwhelming superiority in power, unable to prevent North Korea from developing nuclear weapons? Why did North Korea persist in its nuclear pursuit in the face of U.S. opposition? In this article, we represent nuclear proliferation and counter-proliferation as situations of subjective strategic interaction between states. We measure preferences over strategies and outcomes using operational codes of the leaders of each country, derived via linguistic analysis. Our results indicate that neither the U.S. nor North Korea accurately understood the other side’s preference ordering, and that their operational codes interacted in such a way as to produce an outcome favorable to North Korea – the weaker party - and unfavorable to the U.S. – the stronger. The wider contribution is to show that (mis)perceptions of the goals and resolve of the opponent play a crucial role in the success or failure of strong states to compel weak states and vice versa.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, Politics, Leadership, and Perception
Political Geography:
Asia, North Korea, North America, and United States of America

48. Book Review: Sebastian Rosato, Intentions in Great Power Politics: Uncertainty and the Roots of Conflict (Yale University Press, 2021)

Author:
Orhan Mehmed Irfan
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:
International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:
Students and practitioners of International Relations have always been wondering whether the effects of anarchy can be mitigated, where anarchy stands for the absence of hierarchical organization among states. In other words, is it possible for states to abandon their endemic suspicions and anxieties, and start to trust each other? Sebastian Rosato, with his timely and much needed work, concludes that this cannot be the case and those who foresee rosy scenarios for the United States (US)-China rivalry are, to put it mildly, mistaken.
Topic:
Power Politics, Book Review, Conflict, and Rivalry
Political Geography:
China, Global Focus, and United States of America

49. Do Campaign Speeches Predict Foreign Policy? An Operational Code and Leadership Trait Analysis of Donald Trump’s MENA Policies

Author:
Merve ÖZDEMİRKIRAN-EMBEL, B. Toygar Halistoprak, and Michael Young
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:
International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:
This article investigates whether campaign speeches during the US presidential elections can help predict foreign policy behavior. We use speeches made by Donald J. Trump during his bid for president in 2016. We compare the analysis from 2016 with his actual foreign policy decisions during his tenure, 2017-2020. Operational code analysis and leadership traits analysis approaches are used to analyze candidate Trump’s foreign policy beliefs and strategies associated with them. We use Profiler Plus software to conduct content analysis which produces OCA and LTA results. We use three separate datasets to analyze Trump’s beliefs and traits focusing on his general foreign policy speeches, the MENA region, and a third one only about Islamic State and Syria. Our results show that Trump’s profile indicates a foreign policy orientation that avoids involvement in affairs that are perceived as beyond immediate interests. The consistency between his beliefs and traits during the 2016 campaign and his actual foreign policy behavior leads us to conclude that individual level analysis, and specifically OCA and LTA approaches, are useful tools to analyze, explain and predict foreign policy.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Politics, Elections, Leadership, Donald Trump, and Political Beliefs
Political Geography:
Middle East, North America, and United States of America

50. Reagan in China: Don’t Say Anything about the Turkeys

Author:
Beatrice Camp
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
American Diplomacy
Institution:
American Diplomacy
Abstract:
Twelve years after President Nixon’s historic opening to China, President Ronald Reagan visited the People’s Republic of China (PRC) in April 1984. The visit was a vast undertaking with an enormous entourage – Ambassador Arthur Hummel was reportedly stunned to hear that the president’s party would number over 800. For a politician like Reagan who had repeatedly criticized President Jimmy Carter for establishing diplomatic relations with Beijing, it was a huge move. For the Chinese, it was a very welcome symbol of acceptance. First lady Nancy Reagan accompanied her husband; some 600 journalists covered the trip. The Reagans toured historical and cultural sites in Beijing and attended a State Dinner at the Great Hall of the People before traveling on to Xian and Shanghai.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and Memoir
Political Geography:
China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

51. Stepping Up Our Climate Diplomacy

Author:
Charles Ray
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
American Diplomacy
Institution:
American Diplomacy
Abstract:
At the opening of the COP27 summit in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, on November 7, 2022, United Nations Secretary General Antonio Guterres told the representatives of the countries attending that they faced a choice: work together to cut greenhouse gas emissions or condemn the planet to climate catastrophe. “Humanity has a choice,” Guterres said. “Cooperate or perish. We are on a highway to climate hell with our foot on the accelerator.” Guterres called for the world’s richest and poorest countries to work together to speed up the transition from fossil fuels, and for the wealthy to help with funding to enable poor countries reduce emissions and deal with the negative impacts that they have already suffered due to climate change. “The two largest economies—the United States and China—have a particular responsibility to join efforts to make this pact a reality,” he went on to say. Left unsaid, but understood by most, is that China and the U.S. are also the world’s two largest emitters of greenhouse gases. While the U.S. and much of the rest of the world are still preoccupied with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, rampant inflation, energy shortages, and the fallout from the Covid pandemic, the existential problem of climate change cannot be ignored.
Topic:
Climate Change, Diplomacy, and Carbon Emissions
Political Geography:
China, Global Focus, and United States of America

52. Would You Say No to Shirley Temple on Thanksgiving?

Author:
Raymond F. Smith
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
American Diplomacy
Institution:
American Diplomacy
Abstract:
During the Reagan presidency, “trust, but verify” became the operating principle for negotiations with the Soviet Union on strategic matters, particularly on arms control agreements. The administration’s guidance to those of us in the trenches remained as it had been for previous administrations of both parties. We were to continue to adhere to the principle of reciprocity. In the day-to-day business of managing relations with the Soviet Union, reciprocity essentially meant that if they cut us some slack, we would do the same. Generally, the Soviet Union did not cut us any slack, so we did our best not to cut them any. The top-down authoritarianism of the Soviet system gave them some inherent advantages on these matters, since they faced no pressures to relax the treatment accorded to our diplomats, whereas we frequently did. In the early 1980s, I oversaw the bilateral relations section of the State Department’s Soviet desk, responsible for managing the nitty-gritty of everyday relations. While serving in Moscow just a few years previously, I had been on the receiving end of Soviet “hospitality” toward American diplomats and was generally immovable on issues of reciprocity. Which brings us to Shirley Temple. Those of us of a certain age remember her as the irresistible tyke who tap-danced and sang her way into our hearts on the silver screen. Shirley Temple as a child, curtsey, right hand under chin, right foot forward As an adult, Shirley Temple Black developed an interest in international affairs and served as U.S. ambassador to Ghana, then later to Czechoslovakia. And now, on this chilly November day in Washington, my secretary informed me that she was on the phone and wanted to speak to me. She had, she told me, invited the Soviet consul general in San Francisco to her home in the hilly outskirts of the city for Thanksgiving. She believed that enabling him to experience this quintessential American holiday in a real American home would help him to develop a better understanding and appreciation of our way of life. He had replied that he would be delighted to come, but the State Department would not let him because her home was in an area that Soviet diplomats were not allowed to visit. (At this point, I quietly asked one of my staff to find out whether her home was in a closed area and learned shortly that, in fact, it was.) He had told her that unless she could persuade the State Department to grant him an exception to visit her home he would very regretfully have to decline her generous offer.
Topic:
Cold War, Diplomacy, International Affairs, and Memoir
Political Geography:
Soviet Union and United States of America

53. Where the “Marshall Plan” Became the Organization for European Economic Cooperation

Author:
Renee M. Earle
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
American Diplomacy
Institution:
American Diplomacy
Abstract:
In 2022, Europe and the U.S. marked the 75th anniversary of the Marshall Plan, and this year is the 20th anniversary of a permanent Paris exhibit that documents its achievements. When I was posted to Paris as the Public Affairs Officer from 2002 to 2006, the public affairs offices (except for the press section), along with the consular affairs services, were in the Hôtel de Talleyrand facing the Place de la Concorde, about a block from the main U.S. embassy building. The Talleyrand, as we called it, gave visitors easier access for these more public functions of the embassy. Running back and forth to meetings at the embassy was a small price to pay for offices overlooking the majestic Concorde. In 2003, the Talleyrand marked a new milestone. Following initial restorations of the Talleyrand’s State Apartment rooms, the embassy invited representatives of the Marshall Plan’s participating nations and restoration sponsors to celebrate the opening of the George C. Marshall Center and its permanent exhibit, “The Marshall Plan: The Vision of a Family of Nations,” created by French and American historians and curators to memorialize the project that revitalized Europe after the devastation of World War II. The Talleyrand has an illustrious history dating from the 18th century and a no-less- illustrious list of inhabitants that included the building’s namesake today, Charles-Maurice de Talleyrand-Périgord, and the Rothschild family, who made the Talleyrand their home until the German occupation of Paris. The “hôtel particulier” (private urban mansion) lived through an evolving history of changes, including its own salvation when only quick action by the Allied forces saved the Place de la Concorde and surrounding buildings from Hitler’s order to destroy Paris.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Memoir, Economic Cooperation, and Marshall Plan
Political Geography:
Europe and United States of America

54. The Guinea Worm, President Carter and Me: A Journey Through Health Diplomacy

Author:
Lisa Rotondo
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
American Diplomacy
Institution:
American Diplomacy
Abstract:
In September 2001, just days before 9/11, I arrived in Pissila, Burkina Faso for my Peace Corps assignment. I was eager to get to work helping my new home community do surveillance for a neglected tropical disease (NTD) called dracunculiasis, or Guinea worm disease. As a Peace Corps Volunteer in rural Burkina Faso, I biked from village to village, asking community members if they were aware of anyone with Guinea worm disease, an infection that has impacted both humans and animals since ancient times. Thanks, in part, to the work of volunteers before me, I never actually saw a person with Guinea worm disease during my two years as a volunteer. Burkina Faso was on the brink of eliminating the disease, and I remember thinking that the children in my community would never know the word for Guinea worm in their language, Moorè; it would not be in their vocabulary because they would never have to worry about it. I’ve reflected on that more than once during my career in public health. Knowing that we are truly making diseases history has been the drive underlying my efforts for the last two decades.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Health, Memoir, and Public Health
Political Geography:
Africa, United States of America, and Burkina Faso

55. A Mongoose Walked into a Narcotics Den…

Author:
Ed Marks
Publication Date:
08-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
American Diplomacy
Institution:
American Diplomacy
Abstract:
The American embassy in Sri Lanka, like its counterparts worldwide, has the task of liaison and coordination with local authorities on the subject of narcotics. When I served there from 1986 to 1989, narcotics’ use was not a major problem, nor was the country an exporter or a major transit point. Nevertheless, these are relative terms, and the Sri Lankan government was worried that narcotics activity in the country was growing. Both governments were concerned about the increasing evidence that at least one of the Tamil separatist groups was funding its activities by drug smuggling from South Asia to Europe. Soon after my arrival in Colombo, a young colleague who held the narcotics portfolio (among his other duties) arranged a luncheon with four of his most important contacts in the narcotics area: police, customs, etc. We discussed various aspects of the problem and of our bilateral cooperation in the field. At one point, we discussed inspection and control mechanisms at airports and ports, and especially the virtues of specially trained sniffer dogs. The subject interested me as I had some knowledge of the subject from my days in counterterrorism. We all realized that, useful as they are, dogs have disadvantages: scarcity, cost of procurement and maintenance, difficulty of adaptation to tropical climates, and a negative cultural reaction to them among many Moslems. I cannot remember exactly who first broached the thought (although I would like to take credit), but suddenly we were discussing the possibility of replacing sniffer dogs in Sri Lanka and elsewhere in Asia with an indigenous animal, to wit, the mongoose. The more we talked, the more the idea seemed worth pursuing. The senior police officer present claimed experience with local mongooses as pets and insisted that they were clever and trainable, and notable for their ability to smell.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Memoir, and Drugs
Political Geography:
South Asia, Sri Lanka, and United States of America

56. Secret Baseball in China

Author:
W. Robert Pearson
Publication Date:
08-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
American Diplomacy
Institution:
American Diplomacy
Abstract:
My wife Maggie, our two-year-old son Matthew, and I arrived in China in 1981 as part of a rapidly expanding cohort of American diplomats surging into the country following the formal establishment of diplomatic relations in 1979. We were excited to be in the early wave of American diplomats going back to China after 30 years of separation and enmity. We also were prepared for some difficult times, but could only anticipate what would be facing a young American diplomatic family in Beijing. China was just beginning its ascent from the disaster of the Cultural Revolution, and the reality of the past was all around us. The average annual income in China in 1981 was $100. The Beijing air was thick with coal dust, and our hotel room attracted rats while we waited months for permanent housing. One main dish at a Peoples’ Restaurant we visited was dumplings with coffee grounds. Our Chinese counterparts were both curious and cautious, delighted to be able to engage with us and also making excellent use of the impenetrable bureaucracy as necessary. Washington was eager to make headway, and we, as did many Americans, saw a genuine opportunity to open new doors for shared benefit. The sounds and sights, the scenes and senses were fascinating, and for us every day was challenging. We considered it the most important gamble for American diplomacy in the 20th century.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Sports, and Memoir
Political Geography:
China, Asia, and United States of America

57. The Role of US Diplomacy in a Changing World

Author:
David Satterfield
Publication Date:
08-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
American Diplomacy
Institution:
American Diplomacy
Abstract:
In the 1933 movie Dinner at Eight, Jean Harlow’s character notes to her society grande dame hostess that she had read an author who asserted technology would soon take the place of every profession. The hostess eyes her platinum blonde guest and responds with the classic line “My dear, that’s something you need never worry about.” And neither do we in our line of work. There is an enduring critical role for diplomacy—personal and institutional—in a world that is always changing. Today’s diplomacy is facilitated by technology in terms of access to information and communication within Washington, from Washington agencies, between DC and overseas posts, and among our missions to an extent unimaginable when I entered the Foreign Service in 1980. The days of the airgram are long past, of waiting for encrypted teletype messages to be deciphered and printed, of mastering Wang computers and the art of producing documents on daisy wheel printers—and good riddance to all!
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and Public Service
Political Geography:
Global Focus and United States of America

58. Mission Strategic Plans: A Neglected Developmental Tool

Author:
Mark Wentling
Publication Date:
08-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
American Diplomacy
Institution:
American Diplomacy
Abstract:
US missions are required to prepare Integrated Country Strategies (ICS) every three years. In addition, missions with USAID programs are required to prepare Country Development Cooperation Strategies (CDSS) every five years. In developing countries, the strategies usually focus on increasing food crops and nutritional levels. I found during fifty years of work in a dozen missions that few read these strategies and even fewer apply them in their work. Missions go through a stressful period of completing these documents, but once Washington approves them they are often forgotten in a flurry of competing action requirements. Missions are usually engaged with applying the latest U.S. policy or assistance directives. And work priorities and budgetary allocations can shift dramatically with the installation of a new US administration.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Agriculture, Development, International Cooperation, and Food Security
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

59. The Monroe Doctrine After 200 Years: A Strategic Hinge Period in American History

Author:
Thomas E. McNamara
Publication Date:
08-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
American Diplomacy
Institution:
American Diplomacy
Abstract:
Our oldest remaining national policy, the Monroe Doctrine, is 200 years old this December. Historically, it was an anchor in the ever-changing currents of world events for over a century and its influence continues into its third century. It is worth looking at its origins and early history.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, History, and Monroe Doctrine
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

60. Reconciling with a Former Enemy: Post-War Diplomacy between the US and Vietnam

Author:
Justin Ahn
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
American Diplomacy
Institution:
American Diplomacy
Abstract:
After the Vietnam War ended in 1975, US–Vietnam relations were marked by continuing hostility. Deaths during the war have been estimated as 58,220 American soldiers and, on the Vietnamese side, a staggering two million civilians and one million soldiers.[1] The US had no diplomatic ties with Vietnam and imposed a full trade embargo on the country.[1] Less than fifty years later, the two countries are close economic and strategic partners thanks to their successful diplomatic efforts.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Reconciliation, and Vietnam War
Political Geography:
Vietnam, North America, Southeast Asia, and United States of America

61. HIV, the Legacy of America’s Response, and Lessons for Future Outbreaks

Author:
Alisha Smith-Arthur
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
American Diplomacy
Institution:
American Diplomacy
Abstract:
As I stood in line (safety distanced) to receive a COVID test before returning home to the US after a trip to Cote d’Ivoire in 2022, I was able to see and reflect upon the enduring legacy of the American public health diplomacy effort to fight the global pandemic of HIV. The testing site had the unmistakable dual-flag PEPFAR (The President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief, announced by George W. Bush in 2003) logo outside, indicating that the testing equipment (and likely the training for the personnel inside) came via a PEPFAR project. I’ve seen similar stamps on rural labs and remote health posts across the countries I’ve worked in (as well as on the airport welcome signs of many a friendly health worker who has readily included me in their work), and it always serves to remind me of the common goals we are working towards in these health diplomacy projects.
Topic:
HIV/AIDS, Diplomacy, Public Health, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Africa, North America, and United States of America

62. Plurilateral Controls and a New Export Control Regime are Needed to Make Export Controls More Effective and Less Counterproductive

Author:
Kevin Wolf
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Fletcher Security Review
Institution:
The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:
If the first rule of export control regulation is to define clearly the problem to be solved, the second, with some exceptions, is to ensure that the rule is both effective and not counterproductive. By “effective,” I mean that the rule actually stops or hinders the end users of concern from getting the items at issue from any source. My reference to “not counterproductive” means ensuring that foreign competitors of U.S. companies do not gain outsized advantages in markets to which U.S. firms no longer have access thanks to export controls. The income gained in these instances could allow the foreign competitors to out-innovate, out-compete, or even displace entirely the U.S. company. The exceptions pertain to situations where the U.S. should impose a unilateral control to express objection to and not otherwise support human rights violations or move quickly when the issue to be addressed is urgent, particularly if there is a threat to the warfighter. In both cases, the point remains that the eventual adoption of multilateral or plurilateral controls will make them more effective.
Topic:
Regulation, Exports, Unilateralism, and Economic Competition
Political Geography:
North America, Global Focus, and United States of America

63. BlackRock ve ABD Hegemonyası

Author:
Muhammet Sait Pınarbaşi
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Bilgi
Institution:
Sakarya University (SAU)
Abstract:
1980’lerde başlayan uluslararası ekonomi politik gelişmeler kurumsal yönetişim rejimini de etkileyerek, varlık yöneticisi kapitalizmi olarak adlandırılan bir sürece girilmesine ve bu sürecin sonunda yeni ekonomi politik aktörler olan dev varlık yöneticisi şirketlerinin önemli ölçüde büyümesine sebep olmuştur. Ekonomik sistemde hâkimiyetin, rızaya dayalı tahakküm biçimi olarak hegemonyanın ön koşullarından birisi olarak sayılması, bu şirketlerin en büyüğü olan BlackRock’ın ABD hegemonyasındaki konumunun değerlendirilmesinin önünü açmıştır. Konuyla ilgili eserlerin incelendiği literatür taramasının yanında yorumsamacı yaklaşımdan yararlanılarak yapılan çalışmada BlackRock’ı ABD hegemonyası perspektifinden araştırmak hedeflenmiştir. Bu amaç doğrultusunda yapılan araştırmanın sonucunda, yönetimi altındaki varlıkların 10 trilyon dolara ulaştığı BlackRock’ın; ABD ile yakın ilişkisi, ekonomik kriz dönemlerindeki kurtarıcı rolü, dünyanın en büyük finans kuruluşlarına (merkez bankaları dahil) danışmanlık yapması, hissedar olduğu binlerce şirketin genel kurulunda oylama hakkı bulunması ve 2012’den itibaren her yıl yayınlanan mektuplar aracılığıyla küresel ekonomik sisteme önemli ölçüde etki etme kabiliyeti bir bütün olarak değerlendirildiğinde ABD hegemonyası lehine konumlandığı gözükmektedir.
Topic:
Political Economy, Hegemony, Capitalism, and BlackRock
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

64. Moonshot vs. Long March: Contrasting the United States’s and China’s Space Programs

Author:
Katherine Kurata and David Lin
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
China Brief
Institution:
The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
On the morning of November 2, 2023, the Gobi Desert’s silence was shattered: From a remote launchpad at the Jiuquan Satellite Launch Center (中国酒泉卫 星发射中心), the Hyperbola-2 (双曲线二号), a slender rocket bearing the iSpace emblem (星际荣耀), surged upwards, before gracefully alighting back on Earth (iSpace WeChat, November 2; CNSA, November 2). This suborbital hop marked a major achievement for iSpace as the company progresses towards developing reusable medium-lift rockets. The test demonstrated key technologies like the methalox engine and landing capabilities that will enable iSpace’s larger reusable rocket plans with Hyperbola-3. In China’s rapidly growing commercial space industry, iSpace, alongside other ambitious startups like Galactic Energy (星河动力), CAS Space (中科宇航探索技术), and Deep Blue Aerospace (深蓝航天), are striving to replicate the success of American pioneers such as SpaceX (Galactic Energy WeChat, July 24; CAS Space WeChat, April 4; Deep Blue Aerospace WeChat, May 7, 2022). Their goal: to revolutionize orbital access with reusable rocket technology. The success on November 2 was more than an engineering accomplishment; it was a testament to China’s emerging “innovation power”—its capacity to create, adopt, and seamlessly integrate new technologies (Foreign Affairs, February 28; US House of Representatives, May 17). This successful launch marks not just a step forward in technological capability but also a strategic shift in the global space race. With a unique mix of state guidance and entrepreneurial zeal, China is charting an alternate path in space exploration, contrasting sharply with the United States’s focus on private sector innovation. As the United States and China advance their respective space programs, their differing approaches are reshaping the landscape of space leadership. While America champions private sector innovation, China exerts centralized state control. Yet amidst an increasingly congested orbital environment, it is clear that the future trajectory of space exploration hinges not solely on innovation itself, but specifically on the capacity for nations to effectively combine government direction with commercial dynamism. The country that strikes this balance will harness the strengths of both its public and private sectors to accelerate advancement, and will be positioned to spearhead humanity’s future in the final frontier.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Space, Innovation, and Public-Private Partnership
Political Geography:
China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

65. U.S.-China Data War Intensifies as Bilateral Relations Nosedive

Author:
Willy Wo-Lap Lam
Publication Date:
04-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
China Brief
Institution:
The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
U.S.-China relations appear headed for further deterioration despite the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) efforts to lure back American multinationals and Beijing’s relatively limited support for Russia in its war with Ukraine. Washington has characterized the “existential competition” with the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) as an entrenched struggle on all fronts, but the data and information sectors have recently become areas of particularly intense contention. The Xi Jinping leadership has sternly retaliated against purported efforts by the U.S. and its allies to choke off the PRC’s high-tech development pathways. Recent moves targeting American and other foreign firms are also closely linked to General Secretary Xi Jinping’s obsession with cybersecurity and control of data. Last weekend, the Cyberspace Administration of China (CAC), the administrative arm of the policy-setting Central Cyberspace Affairs Commission (CCAC) that Xi chairs, announced an investigation into the operations of leading American memory-chip maker Micron Technology. The CAC cited the need to safeguard the supply chains of Chinese IT and data companies. Regardless, Micron, whose China operations account for 11 percent of worldwide sales, has insisted that it “stands by the security of our products” (Straits Times, April 1; South China Morning Post [SCMP], March 31).
Topic:
Bilateral Relations, Cybersecurity, Information Technology, and Data Governance
Political Geography:
China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

66. Strategic Competition between USA and China in Asia Pacific Region

Author:
Muhammad Soban Arif, Syeda Lubna Shah, and Muhammad Talha
Publication Date:
07-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
South Asian Studies
Institution:
Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:
The USA is increasingly engaged in the Asia Pacific region to secure its interest in maintaining its status quo over the globe. As China becomes an economic giant within two decades and poses a threat to the hegemony of the USA, the USA is engaging with its partners and allies in the region. For this purpose, the USA initiated multiple alliances like AUKUS & QUAD shifted its perspective towards Asia, and Introduced an Asia-Pacific policy for containing China. In contrast to the USA, China is sucking the countries in its economic system to build infrastructure, ports, roads, and railways and by providing loans to developing countries by introducing projects like BRI, OBOR & BRICS. China is using the strategy of Sun Tzu by maneuvering opponents into such a place from which escape is impossible. Both countries are in Thucydides' trap from which escape is impossible. The USA & and China confronted each other through a Trade War. Now achieving geoeconomics interest is important in the contemporary century. The perspective of war on the battlefield shifted toward confronting geo-economic interests due to nuclear doctrine. According to realists, conflict is inevitable in human interactions.
Topic:
Cold War, Strategic Competition, Regional Politics, and Strategic Engagement
Political Geography:
China, Asia-Pacific, and United States of America

67. Shifting Dynamics in the Middle East: Implications for Pakistan

Author:
Zosha Noor, Muhammad Javed, and Shakeel Ahmed
Publication Date:
07-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
South Asian Studies
Institution:
Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:
China's resurgence as a global actor has significantly altered international relations, particularly in the Middle East, particularly with Saudi Arabia and Iran. Pakistan's unique geographical location and complex international interactions present an intriguing situation due to these changes. Pakistan's close relations with China, Saudi Arabia, and Iran, along with its shared border and cultural ties with Iran, influence its security concerns, domestic politics, economy imperative, and foreign policy. China's growing relationship with Saudi Arabia is driven by its oil needs, global influence, and regional stability. Iran offers China a valuable counterbalance and potential ally in the Middle East due to its geostrategic position and abundant natural resources. The United States' long-standing hegemony in the Middle East has been put to the challenge by China's growing influence and strategic alliances in the region. This qualitative study investigates the issues relating to Middle East with an objective to evaluate the role of great powers‘ politics in the region. The Middle East's shifting geopolitical environment could be advantageous for projects like the ChinaPakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), Chabahar Port Development, and Iran-Pakistan Gas Pipeline.
Topic:
International Relations, Political stability, Rapprochement, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Pakistan, China, Iran, Middle East, Saudi Arabia, and United States of America

68. Tackling Russian Gray Zone Approaches in the Post-Cold War Era

Author:
Ryan Burkholder
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Advanced Military Studies
Institution:
Marine Corps University Press, National Defense University
Abstract:
To undermine U.S. military strength, state actors are increasingly operating in the ambiguous environment between peace and war known as the “gray zone.” These actions test U.S. response by exploiting the West’s rigid notion of conflict. Soviet actions toward the United States and other nations during the Cold War shared many similarities with contemporary Russian strategy. There is no current uniform definition of the gray zone, and the United States has not developed doctrine to address this challenge. Russia has adapted Soviet Cold War techniques for the digital and globalized age and effectively integrates instruments of power against the United States by targeting seams within culture, maintaining ambiguity, and controlling narratives. Countering these tactics requires that the United States modify its mindset toward conflict and improve integration of its own instruments of power.
Topic:
Cold War, Politics, Conflict, Gray Zone, and Hybrid Warfare
Political Geography:
Russia, Eurasia, North America, and United States of America

69. The Cold War Computer Arms Race

Author:
Bryan Leese
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Advanced Military Studies
Institution:
Marine Corps University Press, National Defense University
Abstract:
The Cold War computer arms race illustrates the military’s role in strategic competition. The Soviets bought and stole, versus creating computer technology themselves. A U.S.-led coalition integrated economic, diplomatic, and information mechanisms, embargoing computer technology to disadvantage the Soviets. President Ronald W. Reagan’s offset strategy integrated military power, openly demonstrating computer-infused weapons lethality that jeopardized Soviet quantitative military advantage. President Reagan’s use of the computer arms race shows a way to conduct and integrate a strategic competition campaign of deterrence that includes coercive diplomacy with diplomatic efforts that can deter China and Russia while encouraging them to reverse harmful foreign and domestic policies.
Topic:
Cold War, Science and Technology, Deterrence, Espionage, Embargo, Coercion, Competition, and Computers
Political Geography:
Russia, China, North America, and United States of America

70. Revisiting the Global Posture Review: A New U.S. Approach to European Defense and NATO in a Post-Ukraine War World

Author:
Maxwell Stewart
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Advanced Military Studies
Institution:
Marine Corps University Press, National Defense University
Abstract:
This article revisits the 2021 Global Posture Review’s determination for a status quo European force posture in the wake of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Considering the poor Russian performance and attrition in the war, and the likely frozen conflict that will emerge, the article lays out the process by which the United States can draw down its permanent presence in Europe to refocus on the Pacific and restructure its relationship with the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), all while maintaining alliance unity. The article has two main recommendations. The first is a time line for a reduced U.S. force posture in Europe from the present to 2035 while placing more emphasis on a European role in NATO leadership. The second is focused on how to maintain strategic flexibility while reassuring NATO allies of U.S. commitment. It then identifies and provides mitigations for the anticipated risks associated with the recommendations.
Topic:
Defense Policy, NATO, Deterrence, Russia-Ukraine War, and Rebalancing
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Ukraine, North America, and United States of America

71. Including Africa Threat Analysis in Force Design 2030

Author:
Glen Segell
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Advanced Military Studies
Institution:
Marine Corps University Press, National Defense University
Abstract:
This article examines the threat analysis across Africa that should be included in Force Design 2030 for the United States Marine Corps to be deployed landward to Africa or seaward of the continent. It is a strategic guidance document examined from a threat analysis of China, Russia, Korea, Iran, and violent extremist organizations. Africa is not mentioned, and this is a notable omission given that high level interventions in the past to Africa have not been overtly successful. Given geostrategic significances and hot spots it is inevitable that the Marines will be deployed there again. This article examines lessons learned from failures in Somalia, Libya, and Lebanon and successes in Syria and Iraq as well as the experiences of others—France in Mali and Burkina Faso and United States Africa Command. Great power competition, violent extremist organizations, and the gray zone phenomena across Africa are examined as are security, intelligence, counterintelligence, and hybrid warfare.
Topic:
Security, Intelligence, Counterinsurgency, Violent Extremism, Gray Zone, Strategic Competition, and US Marine Corps
Political Geography:
Africa and United States of America

72. The Nationalization of Cybersecurity: The Potential Effects of the Cyberspace Solarium Commission Report on the Nation’s Critical Infrastructure

Author:
H. Chris Tecklenburg and José de Arimatéia da Cruz
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Advanced Military Studies
Institution:
Marine Corps University Press, National Defense University
Abstract:
The United States is susceptible to cyberattacks. The Cyberspace Solarium Commission Report provides several recommendations to prevent and respond to such attacks. However, many of these recommendations attempt to nationalize cybersecurity. This article presents a historical overview involving the Department of Homeland Security, the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, and the Commerce Clause, which outlines nationalization and its effects. It will note a similar trend for cybersecurity. Finally, the positive and negative consequences of nationalization are presented.
Topic:
Cybersecurity, Homeland Security, Cyberspace, Commerce, Nationalization, and Critical Infrastructure
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

73. Sovereignty, Cyberspace, and the Emergence of Internet Bubbles

Author:
Eldar Haber and Lev Topor
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Advanced Military Studies
Institution:
Marine Corps University Press, National Defense University
Abstract:
The cyber domain emerged as a perfect platform for international struggle over power and influence. International powers are actively engaged in cyber proxy warfare due to the relatively low risk of escalation, various enforcement challenges, and the vagueness of international law within this realm. These indirect conflicts might lead some global powers to close or restrict their virtual borders to avoid or reduce the plausibility of cyber proxy warfare or unwanted foreign influence in general. The formation of such restricted networks, articulated in this article as “internet bubbles,” is already shaping within the realm of actors like Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran. The authors argue that liberal democracies like the United States might be at a severe disadvantage to fight against cyber proxy warfare due to legal and constitutional barriers. But at the same time, the emergence of platform governance and self-regulation might be proven as a new force within these proxy wars and reshape its boundaries.
Topic:
Sovereignty, Cybersecurity, Internet, Proxy War, and Cyberspace
Political Geography:
Russia, China, North America, and United States of America

74. The Geopolitical Consequences of COVID-19: Assessing Hawkish Mass Opinion in China

Author:
Joshua Byun, D. G. Kim, and Sichen Li
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Political Science Quarterly
Institution:
Academy of Political Science
Abstract:
JOSHUA BYUN, D.G. KIM, and SICHEN LI examine the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the Chinese public’s foreign policy attitudes. Drawing on original surveys fielded in China during the first six months of the global pandemic, they find that ordinary Chinese citizens are optimistic about China’s future global position, and that this optimism corresponds with the widespread perception that the COVID-19 pandemic is accelerating China’s rise relative to the United States.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Public Opinion, Geopolitics, Survey, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
China, Asia, and United States of America

75. After Trump: Enemies, Partisans, and Recovery

Author:
Christopher J. Fettweis
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Political Science Quarterly
Institution:
Academy of Political Science
Abstract:
CHRISTOPHER J. FETTWEIS discusses what political polarization in the United States has in common with the relationship between the Cold War superpowers. He argues that in both cases the “enemy image” warps perception of the other side and prevents meaningful reconciliation. Applying insight from international relations to U.S. domestic politics, he discusses the pernicious effects of the enemy image and how to overcome it.
Topic:
International Relations, Domestic Politics, Donald Trump, and Polarization
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

76. Spring 2022 edition of Strategic Visions

Author:
Casey VanSise and Alan McPherson
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Strategic Visions
Institution:
Center for the Study of Force and Diplomacy, Temple University
Abstract:
News from the Director . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 Spring 2022 Colloquium . . . . . . . . 2 Columnist Trudy Rubin at CENFAD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 Spring 2022 Prizes . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 First CENFAD Emerging Scholar . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 Thanks to the Davis Fellow . . . . . . 4 News from the CENFAD Community . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 Note from the Davis Fellow . . . . . . . . 9 CENFAD Community Interviews Dr. Robert “Bob” Vitalis . . . . . . . 11 Dr. Elizabeth R. Varon . . . . . . . . . 15 Dr. Matthew Specter . . . . . . . . . . 19 Dr. Miguel La Serna . . . . . . . . . . 25 Dr. Paul Adler . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31 Short Essay: “The Stable Republic of Brazil,” by Dr. Philip Evanson . . . . . 35 Book Reviews Her Cold War: Women in the U.S. Military, 1945-1980, reviewed by Ariel Natalo-Lifton . . . . . . . . . . . 40 American Exceptionalism: A New History of an Old Idea, reviewed by Graydon Dennison . . . . . . . . . 46
Topic:
Economy, History, Interview, COVID-19, Strategic Interests, and Military
Political Geography:
Brazil, Global Focus, and United States of America

77. International Law and Order Enforcement: Police Assistance Programs and Politics in US-Brazil Relations

Author:
Priscila Villela
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional (RBPI)
Institution:
Instituto Brasileiro de Relações Internacionais (IBRI)
Abstract:
Police Assistance programs have been a permanent part of US foreign policy towards Latin America, with Brazil being one of the most important beneficiaries. Throughout their history, they have been oriented according to changing agendas, from anticommunism to the war on drugs. Based on documentary sources and specialized literature, we analyze the politics of US policing in Brazil, reconstituting agendas and interests that motivated police assistance programs through the lens of critical police studies in IR. In doing so, we demonstrate that police cooperation is historically a crucial part of US-Brazil bilateral relations, despite the unfrequent prominence in the literature.
Topic:
International Cooperation, International Law, Bilateral Relations, and Police
Political Geography:
Brazil, South America, North America, and United States of America

78. The Systemic Cycles of Accumulation in the Work of Giovani Arrighi: The 2008 Crisis, The End of US Hegemony and the Role of China

Author:
Analúcia Danilevicz Pereira and Igor Estima Sardo
Publication Date:
08-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
Institution:
Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Abstract:
This article seeks to discuss whether the terminal crisis of the US cycle has already occurred and whether, therefore, the World-System would experience a new SCA. As a hypothesis to the question, it is assumed that the 2008 crisis can be interpreted as the terminal crisis of the US cycle and that, after this event, a dichotomous SCA begins between the United States (US) and the People’s Republic of China (PRC), expanding the organic core of capitalism and the decision-making bodies of the world economy in the G20 (Silver; Arrighi 2011).In a broader sense, the purpose of this article is to contribute to the debate, left open after the death of Giovanni Arrighi in 2009 (Harvey 2009), about the successions of SCAs, the signal and terminal crises and the hegemonies of the World-System. This work intends to review the main works of the author The Long Twentieth Century: money, power and the origins of our time, Chaos and governance in the Modern World System and Adam Smith in Beijing4 and to analyze the context of the 2008 crisis, both its causes and consequences. for international relations
Topic:
Capitalism, Rivalry, World System, and Competition
Political Geography:
China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

79. China's Contribution to the Stabilization of 'Democratic' Afghanistan

Author:
Lukasz Jurenczyk
Publication Date:
08-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
Institution:
Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Abstract:
The People’s Republic of China and Afghanistan established diplomatic relations in 1955. In the following decades of the Cold War, however, relations between the countries were limited, which was due to the main directions of the foreign policies of both countries. Afghanistan focused on balancing the influence of the USSR and the US on its territory. China, in turn, adopted a rotational stance towards superpowers, and in the region, it strengthened political, economic and military cooperation with Pakistan (Zaborowski 2012, 142). In the 1970s, China supported the pro-communist Shu’lai Javid (Eternal Flame) party operating in Afghanistan. Members of Parcham, the pro-Moscow wing of the People’s Democratic Party of Afghanistan (PDPA), contemptuously described its members as Maoists (Levi-Sanchez 2017, 46). During the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan, Beijing allowed Xinjiang Uyghur Muslim fighters to pass through the Wakhan Corridor into Afghanistan to support the mujahideen insurgency there. At that time, political relations between states were maintained only at the consular level.By February 1989, the Soviets withdrew their troops from Afghanistan, and in September 1992 the last communist president - Mohammad Najibullah (09.1987-09.1992) was overthrown. However, this did not end the civil war, as individual mujahideen groups fought for influence in the country. The war destabilized not only Afghanistan, but also the border areas of neighboring countries, including the Western border of the PRC. In 1992, the President of Afghanistan - Burhanuddin Rabbani (06.1992-09.1996) tried to normalize relations with Beijing, but due to increasing military operations in 1993 China withdrew its diplomatic representation from Kabul. When the Taliban took power in Afghanistan in 1996, the country fell into international isolation in which China participated. During the Taliban regime, Afghanistan hosted al-Qaeda, which trained around 1,000 Uyghur fighters in the camps there. In Beijing, this caused serious concern and encouraged the Chinese authorities to intensify security cooperation with Pakistan. According to leaders of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), most of the security problems in the Muslim-dominated Xinjiang province were to be caused by neighboring Afghanistan. For example, the 1997 incidents in the province, known as the Yining riots, were considered to be Taliban-inspired (Cheema 2002, 308)
Topic:
Diplomacy, Hegemony, Democracy, and Stabilization
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, China, Middle East, Asia, North America, and United States of America

80. The “One China” Issue in U.S.-China Relations

Author:
Zhiqun Zhu
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Baku Dialogues
Institution:
ADA University
Abstract:
Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Armenia in September 2022 caused some limited geopolitical commotion, as most readers of Baku Dialogues are keenly aware. Without downplaying its regional significance in the slightest, it was, however, her visit to Taiwan in August 2022 that made global headlines and triggered a new round of tensions in the Taiwan Strait. At the core of that controversy is the status of Taiwan. While the People’s Republic of China (PRC) condemned the visit as a violation of the “one China principle,” the U.S. government and Pelosi herself insisted that it was consistent with America’s “one China policy.” Five decades after U.S. President Richard Nixon’s historic visit to China, the Taiwan issue remains the most difficult and potentially most explosive dispute between the United States and China. While Beijing maintains that the “one China principle,” with the PRC representing all of China, is the foundation of U.S.‑China relations, Washington emphasizes that its “one China policy” treats Taiwan as a separate entity from the PRC. Meanwhile, Taipei, under the rule of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), has asserted that Taiwan is already independent and the two sides across the Taiwan Strait are not subordinate to each other. As the U.S.‑China rivalry intensifies, Taiwan has quickly re‑emerged as the biggest hot‑button issue between the two great powers. The Taiwan issue is so serious that it routinely tops the agenda of meetings and phone calls between Chinese and U.S. officials, including calls between PRC President Xi Jinping and U.S. President Joe Biden. Shortly before Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan, Xi warned that “those who play with fire will get burned” during a phone call with Biden.
Topic:
Security, Territorial Disputes, Hegemony, Leadership, Rivalry, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:
China, Taiwan, Asia, North America, and United States of America

81. Remaking the Future of the Internet

Author:
James Lewis
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Institution:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Abstract:
A rule of thumb in Hollywood is when you have no new ideas for a 1lm, remake an old one. 5e United States is taking a similar approach to internet policy, with the well-intended “Declaration for the Future of the Internet” (hereafter referred to as “the Declaration”) reiterating themes from the dawn of the internet.1 5ere is a real opportunity for a new approach to internet policy that endorses democratic values and a reformed multistakeholder model, but the Declaration does not provide this opportunity because it ignores sovereignty and great power con6ict—the forces reshaping the internet. 5ere are 193 countries in the world. Only 60 endorsed the Declaration.2 If this had been an election, the United States would have lost. 5is outcome may partly re6ect a lack of diplomatic skill by the United States, but it also re6ects a paucity of ideas to address concerns in the developing world, which center around development, sovereignty, and the rule of law. Many nations would have welcomed a bold new vision for the internet that took their interests into account. 5ey did not get this vision from the Declaration.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Internet, and Digital Policy
Political Geography:
Global Focus and United States of America

82. The Strength of Small, Lean, and Agile

Author:
Brian Binnie
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Institution:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Abstract:
As a youngster, the 1960s wereexciting times for space exploration. In 1968, I watched Stanley Kubrick’s 2001: A Space Odyssey, a movie that sparked the minds of young adventurers everywhere. Just one year later, in 1969, I watched alongside the world as two men bounced around on the moon. With millions of others, I believed that since everything was happening so quickly, by the time we were older, there would be all sorts of opportunities available in the burgeoning 1eld of space. 9ese expectations were never realized. For 45 years, the same starry adventurers watched from the sidelines as the severed operations of NASA maintained their exclusive grip on all things space with the Shuttle and International Space Station operations. But in 2004, a small, privately owned company shocked the landscape, 0ying three space 0ights with a reusable ship to the rapt attention of millions worldwide. With the visibility provided by a $10 million prize, these 0ights became the leading story of that year.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Regulation, Space, and National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)
Political Geography:
United States of America

83. Talking About NASA: Outer Space and World A!airs

Author:
John M. Logsdon, David Del Terzo, and Luka Willett
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Institution:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Abstract:
Dr. John M. Logsdon is Professor Emeritus at George Washington University’s (GWU) Elliott School of International A!airs, where he was the founder and long-time director of GWU’s Space Policy Institute. He is an author of many articles, essays, and edited books, with his most recent publication being Ronald Reagan and the Space Frontier (Palgrave Macmillan, 2019). In 2003, he was a member of the Columbia Accident Investigation Board and was formerly a member of the NASA
Topic:
International Affairs, Space, Interview, and National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

84. Divergencias chino-estadounidenses y reconfiguración de la política exterior latinoamericana. Introducción al número especial

Author:
Pablo Biderbost and Guillermo Boscán Carrasquero
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:
Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:
Este número especial de la Revista UNISCI se centra en la rivalidad creciente entre Estados Unidos y China en el contexto latinoamericano. Pretende ofrecer una visión comprehensiva del papel de estas potencias en la región y la adaptación que han debido realizar, en el contexto de su política exterior, los estados latinoamericanos. A tales efectos, se analizan dimensiones tanto vinculadas a la seguridad como a las relaciones comerciales entre estas naciones y los, en la actualidad, dos estados dominantes del escenario geopolítico internacional.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Trade, and Competition
Political Geography:
China, Latin America, and United States of America

85. An Impact Analysis of California’s State-County Assessors’ Partnership Agreement Program

Author:
Geoffrey Propheter
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
California Journal of Politics and Policy
Institution:
Institute of Governmental Studies, UC Berkeley
Abstract:
California’s State-County Assessors’ Partnership Agreement Program (SCAPAP) provided select counties with a dollar-for-dollar matching grant from the state for assessment administration over a three-year period from fiscal year 2015 through 2017. One of the policy goals for the grant was to finance administrative activities that would lead to an increase in the property tax base, thereby increasing property tax revenue. This study evaluates how well the grant accomplished this goal. Using the synthetic control method on data from 2007 through 2018, I find little evidence SCAPAP funds increased participating counties’ property tax base. Since the purpose of the program is based on sound economic theory, I caution interpreting this conclusion as a reason to discontinue policy experimentation.
Topic:
Economics, Governance, Tax Systems, and Fiscal Policy
Political Geography:
California, North America, and United States of America

86. The Unprecedented Federal Fiscal Policy Response to the COVID-19 Pandemic and Its Impact on State Budgets

Author:
Phil Dean
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
California Journal of Politics and Policy
Institution:
Institute of Governmental Studies, UC Berkeley
Abstract:
In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, within a year’s time span, the federal government enacted unprecedented fiscal response bills totaling over $5 trillion. This response amount equates to about 25% of U.S. GDP in 2020. These massive allocations funded direct pandemic public health responses, along with vast fiscal support for households, firms, and state and local governments. This enormous response supported state and local government budgets both indirectly and directly, resulting in a marked budgetary shift from anticipated shortfalls to significant revenue growth and inflationary budget pressures.
Topic:
Budget, Fiscal Policy, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

87. Muddling Through: Alaska’s Budget Process in 2021

Author:
Glenn Wright
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
California Journal of Politics and Policy
Institution:
Institute of Governmental Studies, UC Berkeley
Abstract:
In 2021, the State of Alaska faced substantial challenges due to the public health and economic impacts of COVID-19. COVID damaged Alaska’s state revenues by driving down global oil prices. COVID also harmed the state’s economy more broadly, with substantial impacts on some extractive industries and tourism. However, Alaska’s budgetary problems—high expenditures and low revenues—long predate COVID and are related to Alaska’s historical dependence on fossil fuel extraction for state revenue. Alaska’s budget situation has improved somewhat through 2021 as oil prices have risen globally, though this may also complicate budgetary debates in Spring 2022.
Topic:
Fiscal Policy, Public Health, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
North America, Alaska, and United States of America

88. Don’t Go Chasing Windfalls: California’s 2021-2022 Budget

Author:
Brian DiSarro and Wesley Hussey
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
California Journal of Politics and Policy
Institution:
Institute of Governmental Studies, UC Berkeley
Abstract:
Amidst a global pandemic, a gubernatorial recall election, and a shaky economy, California had one of its best budget years in recent memory. Flush with cash, the state was able to make unprecedented investments in education, health, and social welfare programs, provide direct stimulus payments to many California residents, and still set aside money in its rainy-day fund. Governor Newsom handily defeated the recall effort, and the budget outlook for 2022 looks bright. 2021 was a tumultuous year, but California is proving that it’s once again the “Golden State”.
Topic:
Budget, Fiscal Policy, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
California, North America, and United States of America

89. Colorado’s Political Climate, Economy, and Budget during COVID-19

Author:
Michael Berry
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
California Journal of Politics and Policy
Institution:
Institute of Governmental Studies, UC Berkeley
Abstract:
The COVID-19 pandemic was a monumental exogeneous shock to the Colorado economy. Prior to the pandemic’s onset the state reported historically low unemployment alongside robust growth in personal income levels and state revenue. While the negative economic effects of the pandemic were sharp, the state’s economic recovery is outpacing what many economists previously projected. The General Assembly was compelled to impose major cuts to last year’s budget, many of which were restored with the enactment of the budget for the 2021–2022 fiscal year. The General Fund budget of $13.6 billion proposed by Democratic Governor Jared Polis represented a substantial spending increase of 20 percent from the prior year. The enacted $13.1 billion General Fund budget received nearly unanimous approval among Democrats and modest Republican support. Policymakers ultimately sought to balance competing priorities across many issue areas, while also preparing for the future with a major investment of $1.5 billion to the state’s reserve fund.
Topic:
Economics, Governance, Budget, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
North America, Colorado, and United States of America

90. The Year Without Tourism: Hawai‘i’s FY2022 Pandemic Budget

Author:
Colin D. Moore
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
California Journal of Politics and Policy
Institution:
Institute of Governmental Studies, UC Berkeley
Abstract:
Hawai‘i’s economy was devastated by the COVID-19 pandemic. The effective closure of the tourism industry created an unemployment crisis and led to a dramatic decline in tax revenues. Nevertheless, Hawai‘i managed to avoid mass layoffs of public employees and draconian cuts in public services because of federal relief funds. The $15.9 billion budget for FY2022 restored funding to most departments, but the state’s dependence on the visitor industry has left it particularly vulnerable to future pandemic travel restrictions.
Topic:
Tourism, Budget, Fiscal Policy, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
North America, Hawaii, and United States of America

91. Idaho FY22: Recommendations, Appropriations, and Partisanship

Author:
Elizabeth Fredericksen and Ana-Maria Dimand
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
California Journal of Politics and Policy
Institution:
Institute of Governmental Studies, UC Berkeley
Abstract:
This paper presents an overview of the State of Idaho’s FY 2022 budget recommendations and appropriations in the context of demographic changes, economic conditions, and politics. The Executive Budget for FY 2022 notes Governor Little’s historical support of education, job growth, economic opportunity, and fostering an environment for Idaho to avoid citizen migration to other states. However, this policy, along with the COVID-19 exodus, has resulted in a large influx of people from other states with the commensurate housing and infrastructure demands. As most Idaho budgets tend to move incrementally in support of education and infrastructure in the context of very healthy revenues, the state is likely to weather, though with some ambivalence, economic fluctuations. However, partisan tensions threaten education and safety net programming.
Topic:
Governance, Fiscal Policy, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
North America, Idaho, and United States of America

92. Montana’s Hard Right Turn

Author:
Paul Haber
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
California Journal of Politics and Policy
Institution:
Institute of Governmental Studies, UC Berkeley
Abstract:
Budgets, combined with tax policy, provide rich evidence of the applied values of legislative bodies and executives. This paper evaluates budget and tax legislation in Montana that resulted from the 67th legislative session in 2021 that set policy for the 2023 biennium. Montana, whose political complexation has long been purple, moved unambiguously red in the elections of November 2020. This paper speaks to how this changed things in Montana's public policy, in the areas of budget and tax, and a series of other policy areas. One of the more notable findings is that while budget and tax certainly shifted right with the dominance of the Republican Party that itself has moved further right than where it was as recently as 2019, it did not move as far right as many observers had anticipated. The explanation provided here is that this was largely a result of the large infusion of federal COVID relief funds.
Topic:
Governance, Budget, Tax Systems, and Partisanship
Political Geography:
North America, United States of America, and Montana

93. New Mexico’s Box of Pandoras

Author:
Kim Seckler
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
California Journal of Politics and Policy
Institution:
Institute of Governmental Studies, UC Berkeley
Abstract:
In the spring of 2020, the global coronavirus pandemic brought deadly disease to New Mexico, a state already struggling with inadequate health care, vulnerable populations and an unreliable state revenue base. A strong executive and mostly willing legislature met multiple times in multiple special sessions to reduce budgets, allocate federal funds, and shore up public finances. They also had to deal with social and cultural fights aggravated by strict public health orders and plunging revenues. By the close of 2020, the state was slowly regaining its fiscal footing and physical health, though the underlying problems of inadequate health care, educational and economic inequality, and a budget overly reliant on extractive industries remain. As a result of the 2020 general election, the public officials chosen to resolve these issues are more likely to be progressive Democrats, more likely to be women, and more demographically reflective of the majority-minority state they call home.
Topic:
Governance, Budget, Public Health, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
North America, United States of America, and New Mexico

94. Oregon 2020-21: Budgeting During COVID

Author:
Mark Henkels and Brent S. Steel
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
California Journal of Politics and Policy
Institution:
Institute of Governmental Studies, UC Berkeley
Abstract:
Oregon in 2020 and 2021 resembled other Western states: crisis on crisis. COVID, the COVID recession, forest fires and ice storms, and polarized politics dominated the news. Despite these challenges, the state’s fiscal situation turned out very positively. President Biden’s American Rescue Plan and the bipartisan Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act signed in November 2021 provided many billions to the state for 2021 and will cover diverse infrastructure needs over the next five years. This paper analyzes the surprisingly strong general fund and federal fund situations created by the COVID era and considers the political implications of the state’s fiscal situation.
Topic:
Budget, Fiscal Policy, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
North America, United States of America, and Oregon

95. Utah: Strategic Investments in the Wake of a Pandemic

Author:
Jennifer Robinson, Natalie Roney, and Johnson Ball
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
California Journal of Politics and Policy
Institution:
Institute of Governmental Studies, UC Berkeley
Abstract:
Threatening economic impacts from the COVID-19 pandemic on Utah’s economy proved to be short-lived, due in part to early budget cuts, federal economic relief, and an expanding economy that out-performed expectations. Subsequently, FY22 provided the Utah Legislature opportunities to invest in education, infrastructure, and social services. Legislators also used this opportunity to cut taxes for veterans, the elderly population, and families. As the state’s population continues to grow at record rates, Utah decisionmakers must grapple with rising housing prices and record-high rental rates. This report highlights specific challenges and opportunities Utah faced through negotiating a record-high budget of $25.6 billion and provides an overview of Utah’s economy and changing demographic makeup.
Topic:
Investment, Fiscal Policy, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
North America, United States of America, and Utah

96. Budgeting in Pandemic Times: Shutdowns, Social Unrest, and Spending in Washington State

Author:
Michael Artime, Erin Richards, and Francis Benjamin
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
California Journal of Politics and Policy
Institution:
Institute of Governmental Studies, UC Berkeley
Abstract:
The citizens of State of Washington have, like individuals throughout the country, had to navigate unprecedented personal and economic hardship. The supplemental budget passed by the legislature during the 2021 legislative session represents an attempt to address some of the issues that presented as an outgrowth of the pandemic. However, the legislature also considered significant policy changes with respect to, among other items, the environment, taxation, and education. These policy debates were, at times, rather contentious and are indicative of the partisan fault lines existing throughout the state.
Topic:
Budget, Fiscal Policy, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Washington, North America, and United States of America

97. Time for a Significant Reimagining of Government in Wyoming?

Author:
Robert Schumann and Jeffrey Jensen
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
California Journal of Politics and Policy
Institution:
Institute of Governmental Studies, UC Berkeley
Abstract:
Despite $430 million in spending reductions and the loss of 324 state positions, Wyoming’s 2021 supplemental budget reflected an improved pandemic-driven economic climate. Recent budgetary optimism was attributed to increased performance in energy production and pricing, pent up demand for tourism and travel, and higher than expected sales tax revenues. Continued reliance on Wyoming’s Permanent Mineral Trust Fund, and the state’s attachment to the remainder of its boom-and-bust revenue structure, left surprisingly little appetite for discussions of revenue diversificatioan. Instead, “right-sizing” state government to fit the current revenue stream seems more consistent with the spirit of the times.
Topic:
Economics, Budget, Fiscal Policy, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
North America, United States of America, and Wyoming

98. Fall 2022 edition of Strategic Visions

Author:
Alan McPherson, Brandon Kinney, Jay Lockenour, Alessandro Iandolo, Penny Von Eschen, and Ryan Langton
Publication Date:
12-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Strategic Visions
Institution:
Center for the Study of Force and Diplomacy, Temple University
Abstract:
This edition of Strategic Visions includes four interviews with visiting speakers and members of the CENFAD community. In a print-aexclusive interview, the 2022-2023 Richard Immerman Fellow Brandon Kinney talks about his current research for his dissertation. I also sat down with Temple University Professor of History Jay Lockenour to discuss his new book, Dragonslayer: The Legend of Erich Ludendorff in the Weimar Republic and Third Reich. In addition to delivering lectures at CENFAD, Alessandro Iandolo and Penny M. Von Eschen also met with me over Zoom to talk about their recent projects. These interviews appear in print and video below. Lastly, Strategic Visions features an essay and three book reviews from Temple History graduate students. In his essay, “A Reckoning for the Field,” Graydon Dennison pushes historians to think beyond traditional actors and chronologies when studying United States diplomacy. Joseph Johnson reviewed Jacob Darwin Hamblin’s The Wretched Atom: America’s Global Gamble with Peaceful Nuclear Technology, Andrew Santora reviewed David Harrisville’s The Virtuous Wehrmacht: Crafting the Myth of the German Soldier on the Eastern Front, 1941-1944, and Lucas de Souza Martins reviewed Kenneth P. Serbin’s From Revolution to Power in Brazil: How Radical Leftists Embraced Capitalism and Struggled with Leadership.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, History, and Academia
Political Geography:
Brazil, North America, and United States of America

99. The American Multi-Domain Operation as a response to the Russian concept of New Generation Warfare

Author:
Tomasz Wójtowicz
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Nowa Polityka Wschodnia
Institution:
Faculty of Political Science and International Studies, Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń
Abstract:
America’s unipolar balance of power created after the end of the Cold War is inevitably coming to an end. The dynamic economic growth of the People’s Republic of China, lasting uninterruptedly since the 1980s, the reconstruction of spheres of influence by the Russian Federation, the world war on terrorism with the accompanying costly wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, economic crises systematically weakening the economies of Western countries in 2001, 2007 and 2020, and the COVID-19 pandemic – these are just some of the many causes of geopolitical changes. Parallel to the weakening position of the United States, countries such as the Russian Federation are increasingly boldly challenging the current balance of power, provoking armed conflicts and destabilizing countries located in Central and Eastern Europe. The purpose of this article is to present the American Multi-Domain Operation concept as a response to the Russian concept of new generation warfare by which the country successfully led to the annexation of Crimea, the war in Donbas, and the political destabilization of Ukraine. The main research problem resulting from the assumed goal was to answer the following question: what is a Multi-Domain Operation and how do the United States intend to compete and win in the armed conflict taking place in Central and Eastern Europe with the Russian Federation? The following research methods were used to solve the research problems: the method of cause-effect and institutional-legal analysis, method of examining documents, and the method of analysis and criticism of literature. The monographic and comparative methods were also used. However, the main role was played by deductive reasoning which enables the identification of facts based on an in-depth analysis of source data. Taking into account the preliminary research, the author proposed the following research hypothesis: a Multi-Domain Operation is another American operational concept describing the security environment, and the Russian and American way of war. The USA will achieve victory in a possible armed conflict by locating and neutralizing the enemy’s anti-access – area denial capabilities, and then destroying its forces in the disputed area.
Topic:
Power Politics, Conflict, Multipolarity, Russia-Ukraine War, and New Generation Warfare
Political Geography:
Russia, Eurasia, North America, and United States of America

100. The Indo-pacific and Southeast Asia: The Impact of External Strategies on Southeast Asia and Asean’s Response

Author:
Gracia Abad Quintanal
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:
Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:
The Indo-Pacific concept is imprecise and designates more a geopolitical reality than a geographical space, but it is not, as is often suggested, a recent creation of the US, nor of the Trump administration. On the contrary, several actors have used it before the United States itself. And the US will not be the last actor to adopt it, either. On the contrary, it has gradually been adopted by other actors, including ASEAN, which tries to turn the concept in its favor in a way that reaffirms the importance of the group in the region as a whole and does not put in question neither “its centrality or its unity”, something that is far from being achieved.
Topic:
Geopolitics, ASEAN, and Strategic Planning
Political Geography:
China, Asia, United States of America, and Indo-Pacific