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912. Shifting Sands: Power, Uncertainty and the Form of International Legal Cooperation
- Author:
- Timothy Meyer
- Publication Date:
- 01-2016
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Abstract:
- This article argues that the form of international agreements – binding hard law agreements versus non-binding soft law agreements – can be partially explained by states’ interests in promoting renegotiation in the presence of uncertainty and shifting power. I make this argument in three steps. First, I explain that states regularly use unilateral non-compliance as a renegotiation strategy. Second, I argue that making an agreement soft facilitates this use of unilateral non-compliance. Third, I analyse the conditions – uncertainty characterized by common interests (but not uncertainty characterized by distributive concerns) and shifting power – under which facilitating renegotiation through soft law will appeal to states. In particular, I argue that in the presence of these conditions preventing renegotiation creates long-term costs for states that can inhibit short-term cooperation. In effect, under these conditions the shadow of the future can inhibit cooperation rather than support it, as is conventionally thought. These conditions are common to many major contemporary subjects of international cooperation in a way they were not during the latter half of the 20th century, partially explaining the increased importance of soft law to contemporary international governance.
- Topic:
- International Relations, International Law, International Trade and Finance, Treaties and Agreements, and United Nations
- Political Geography:
- Europe, United Nations, and Global Focus
913. Backlash against International Courts in West, East and Southern Africa: Causes and Consequences
- Author:
- Karen J. Alter, James T. Gathii, and Laurence R. Helfer
- Publication Date:
- 01-2016
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Abstract:
- This article discusses three credible attempts by African governments to restrict the jurisdiction of three similarly situated sub-regional courts in response to politically controversial rulings. In West Africa, when the Court of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) upheld allegations of torture by opposition journalists in Gambia, that country’s political leaders sought to restrict the Court’s power to review human rights complaints. The other member states ultimately defeated Gambia’s proposal. In East Africa, Kenya failed in its efforts to eliminate the East African Court of Justice (EACJ) and to remove some of its judges after a decision challenging an election to a sub-regional legislature. However, the member states agreed to restructure the EACJ in ways that have significantly affected the Court’s subsequent trajectory. In Southern Africa, after the Southern African Development Community (SADC) Tribunal ruled in favour of white farmers in disputes over land seizures, Zimbabwe prevailed upon SADC member states to suspend the Tribunal and strip its power to review complaints from private litigants. Variations in the mobilization efforts of community secretariats, civil society groups and sub-regional parliaments explain why efforts to eliminate the three courts or narrow their jurisdiction were defeated in ECOWAS, scaled back in the EACJ and largely succeeded in the SADC.
- Topic:
- Civil Society, Human Rights, International Law, and Courts
- Political Geography:
- Kenya, Africa, Europe, South Africa, Zimbabwe, and Gambia
914. Shifting Sands: Power, Uncertainty and the Form of International Legal Cooperation
- Author:
- Timothy Meyer
- Publication Date:
- 01-2016
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Abstract:
- This article argues that the form of international agreements – binding hard law agreements versus non-binding soft law agreements – can be partially explained by states’ interests in promoting renegotiation in the presence of uncertainty and shifting power. I make this argument in three steps. First, I explain that states regularly use unilateral non-compliance as a renegotiation strategy. Second, I argue that making an agreement soft facilitates this use of unilateral non-compliance. Third, I analyse the conditions – uncertainty characterized by common interests (but not uncertainty characterized by distributive concerns) and shifting power – under which facilitating renegotiation through soft law will appeal to states. In particular, I argue that in the presence of these conditions preventing renegotiation creates long-term costs for states that can inhibit short-term cooperation. In effect, under these conditions the shadow of the future can inhibit cooperation rather than support it, as is conventionally thought. These conditions are common to many major contemporary subjects of international cooperation in a way they were not during the latter half of the 20th century, partially explaining the increased importance of soft law to contemporary international governance.
- Topic:
- International Law, International Trade and Finance, Treaties and Agreements, and United Nations
- Political Geography:
- Europe, United Nations, and Global Focus
915. The Right to Leave by Sea: Legal Limits on EU Migration Control by Third Countries
- Author:
- Nora Markard
- Publication Date:
- 07-2016
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Abstract:
- The EU and its member states are progressively involving third countries in their border control measures at sea. Relevant instruments of cooperative migration control range from capacity building measures to joint patrols in third-country territorial waters and shared surveillance intelligence on ship movements. So far, the discussion on migration control at sea has mainly focused on the illegality of ‘push-backs’ of migrant boats by EU member states to their point of departure. By contrast, the increasing incidence of departure prevention or ‘pull-backs’ by third countries in the service of EU member states has been largely neglected. In particular, such measures raise grave concerns with respect to the right to leave any country, including one’s own. Of central importance during the Cold War, this human right is of no lesser relevance at Europe’s outer borders. This paper explores to what extent departure prevention and pull-back measures are compatible with the right to leave and the law of the sea and discusses the responsibility of EU member states for internationally wrongful acts committed by third countries in such cooperative migration control scenarios.
- Topic:
- Human Rights, International Law, Migration, Border Control, and Maritime
- Political Geography:
- Europe and European Union
916. Asia's Ambivalence about International Law and Institutions: Past, Present and Futures
- Author:
- Simon Chesterman
- Publication Date:
- 10-2016
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Abstract:
- Asian states are the least likely of any regional grouping to be party to most international obligations or to have representation reflecting their number and size in international or ganizations. That is despite the fact that Asian states have arguably benefited most from the security and economic dividends provided by international law and institutions. This article explores the reasons for Asia’s under-participation and under-representation. The first part traces the history of Asia’s engagement with international law. The second part assesses Asia’s current engagement with international law and institutions, examining whether its under-participation and under-representation is in fact significant and how it might be explained. The third part considers possible future developments based on three different scenarios, referred to here as status quo, divergence and convergence. Convergence is held to be the most likely future, indicating adaptation on the part of Asian states as well as on the part of the international legal order.
- Topic:
- International Law, International Organization, History, Courts, and Colonialism
- Political Geography:
- Japan, China, Europe, India, and Asia
917. Ukrainian Identity: Changes, Trends, Regional Aspects
- Author:
- Valeriya Klymenko
- Publication Date:
- 01-2016
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- National Security and Defence
- Institution:
- Razumkov Centre
- Abstract:
- The Razumkov Centre has been studying the identity of Ukrainian citizens since 2005, when for the first time in history of an independent Ukraine distinctions between the society’s different identity groups have created a foundation for a large-scale socio-political conflict known as the Orange Revolution. These studies, conducted in the period of 2005-2009 in Ukraine and its separate regions, including Crimea, uncovered a number of special features of Ukrainian identity, the major ones being: contradictions in the process of forming a common, national civic identity and vagueness of its prospects; presence of an opposing trend – formation of regional sub-national identities on the basis of regional localisation of different linguistic, cultural, national and ethnic, denominational identities of citizens in various parts of Ukraine. The studies have also found interdependence and cross impact between different identity distinctions, in particular linguistic and cultural, and the civic identity.1 Subsequently, starting from 2010, a whole number of events of different scale have taken place in the history of Ukraine due to internal and external factors. These events have, on the one hand, significantly influenced national identity formation in Ukraine and, on the other hand, have themselves become the consequence of the existing trends. In particular, the Razumkov Centre has expressed warnings that since a common national identity of Ukrainian citizens has not been fully formed yet, there is a risk of sub-national identities of some communities integrating with other foreign national identities. Unfortunately, this came true, with such tragic consequences as annexation of Crimea by Russia, attempts by several Eastern and Southern regions to split away from Ukraine (known as the “Novorossiya project”) and the armed conflict in Donbas with thousands of casualties. Results of opinion polls conducted in 2014-2015 demonstrate changes in different dimensions of Ukrainian citizens’ identity. Along with this, due to the circumstances, these changes are of different, at times inconsistent nature, and consequently may bring different outcomes for further development of Ukrainian society and statehood. This creates a need for deeper comprehensive study of Ukrainian identity, changes that occurred during 2006-2015, current processes and trends. The Razumkov Centre’s Project “Identity of Ukrainian Citizens: Changes, Challenges and National Unity Prospects” aims to solve these tasks. A national opinion poll was conducted as part of this project.2 The presented informational and analytical materials contain main results of this poll in terms of different aspects of citizens’ identity3 (“identities”) and their attitude to major topical problems in the society,4 and also describe aspects of identity of citizens from different regions and social groups.
- Topic:
- Politics, Citizenship, Language, and Identity
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Ukraine
918. Constitutional Process: Current Results, Risks and Prospects
- Author:
- Valeriya Klymenko
- Publication Date:
- 01-2016
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- National Security and Defence
- Institution:
- Razumkov Centre
- Abstract:
- The current stage of the constitutional process was initiated by the President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko in March 2015 with the establishment of the Constitutional Commission.1 Already on 1 July 2015, the Parliament registered the Draft Law of Ukraine “On Amendments to the Constitution of Ukraine – on decentralisation” (Reg. No. 2217a), developed by the Constitutional Commission and submitted by the President of Ukraine. On 31 August 2015, the day this bill was approved, grenades exploded in front of the Parliament on the Constitution Square. The presence in this bill on decentralisation of the controversial Paragraph 18 “Transitional Provisions” did not allow entering the process of final adoption of amendments to the Constitution (on decentralisation) in compliance with requirements of Article 155. On 25 November 2015, the subsequent Bill “On Amendments to the Constitution – on justice” (Reg. No. 3524) was registered in Parliament. In February 2016, the bill was approved, and on 2 June 2016, finally adopted by the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine. For the first time since the “political reforms” of December 2004, significant amendments to the Constitution of Ukraine were legally introduced. The adoption of a decision by Parliament to amend the Constitution of Ukraine in the part of justice, did not complete the reform of the judiciary. The fact that a number of amendments to the Constitution raised deep concerns among representatives of the expert community, and even more the judicial community, cannot be ignored. However, a number of updated provisions of the Constitution, implemented in effective mechanisms of special laws, are capable of positively influencing the judiciary. In this regard, firstly, the adoption by Parliament of the Law of Ukraine “On Judicial System and Status of Judges” in an unconstitutional way, with a gross violation of the Verkhovna Rada requirements cannot but cause concern. Second, the main content of the implemented law, introduced to the Parliament without obtaining opinions of the Scientific Experts Office or the Venice Commission, or discussing it in the expert community, can cause a real chaos in the process of implementing constitutional changes. The question remains uncertain about the prospects of the Draft Law of Ukraine “On Amendments to the Constitution of Ukraine – on human rights and freedoms” prepared by the Working Group of the Constitutional Commission. The analytical report has summarized theoretical grounds of regulations contained in the draft law. Since the work on the draft amendments to the Constitution was completed by the Working Group, the Constitutional Commission must make a final conclusion as to its readiness for submission to the President, who will decide on the introduction of a relevant bill to the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine. Both aspects of constitutional amendments were analysed in the study by the Razumkov Centre, which is reflected in the content of the Analytical Report.
- Topic:
- Human Rights, Reform, Constitution, and Judiciary
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Ukraine
919. Consolidation of Ukrainian Society: Challenges, Opportunities, Pathways
- Author:
- Valeriya Klymenko
- Publication Date:
- 01-2016
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- National Security and Defence
- Institution:
- Razumkov Centre
- Abstract:
- This issue of the journal summarises findings of the second stage of the Razumkov Centre’s Project “Formation of a Common Ukrainian Identity under New Conditions: Features, Prospects and Challenges”. Studies undertaken as part of the first project stage helped to identify the shifts that took place in various aspects of national identity between 2005 and 2015, including those brought about by the Revolution of Dignity and provoked by the Russian aggression against Ukraine. These studies paint a fairly detailed portrait of identities of Ukrainian citizens, including cross-regional differences and specifics attributable to citizens belonging to various social groups.1 Certain important issues remain insufficiently explored, particularly the hierarchy of various types of identity, the correlation between civil, national and ethnic components of identity, how citizens in different regions perceive one another, public assessment of the significance of cross-regional differences for the country’s future, etc. Since the previous public opinion survey, notable changes have taken place at the state and society levels as well as in the international political landscape. These changes have affected the public mood. They mainly have to do with falling living standards, a declining level of trust in government institutions, political parties and individual politicians, active attempts of the aggressor state to destabilise situation in Ukraine, lack of progress in resolving the Donbas conflict and returning Crimea, a somewhat decreased level of attention to Ukraine from the international community coupled with Russia’s growing influence on political processes in certain Western countries, the conflicting positions of some EU countries on Ukraine’s European future, certain aspects of Ukraine’s relations with the EU as well as Russia’s role in the ongoing armed conflict. With these factors in mind, the Razumkov Centre has outlined the following key research objectives for the second stage of the project: • Obtain a more detailed picture of how citizens understand specific aspects of identity (particularly civil and socio-cultural identity); • Assess the intensity and nature of the impact these socio-political and international trends have on various identity aspects of citizens, primarily the civil aspect; • Study how citizens in different regions of Ukraine perceive one another, explore the specifics of this perception and the existing beliefs and stereotypes; • Identify the specifics of the viewpoints that residents in different regions have on factors contributing to the division or consolidation of society, and assess their potential impact; • Learn about the attitudes of citizens to possible political approaches and specific efforts in “sensitive” areas, particularly those concerning language, cultural and national policies, and their impact on national unity; • Analyse the experience of specific post-Soviet and post-socialist countries of Europe in matters of shaping and preserving national identity. Formulated in this way, objectives are aligned with overriding goal of the second project stage: to devise effective and theoretically sound political tools adapted to the existing social reality (i.e., the substance of public policy and methods for implementing it) intended for shaping a common national identity among Ukrainian citizens, which would accelerate the process of consolidation of Ukrainian society, help achieve mutual understanding and support national unity.
- Topic:
- Public Opinion, Citizenship, Identity, and Society
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Ukraine, Poland, Romania, and Baltic States
920. Russia's "Hybrid" War -- Challenge and Threat for Europe
- Author:
- Valeriya Klymenko and Hanna Pashkova
- Publication Date:
- 01-2016
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- National Security and Defence
- Institution:
- Razumkov Centre
- Abstract:
- Russia’s aggression against Ukraine that started in February 2014 with the annexation of Crimea and is still going on in Donbas, demonstrated critical vulnerability of the Western world to Kremlin’s “hybrid warfare” policy. The West, divided and burdened with internal problems (“migrant crisis”, Brexit) and external challenges (D. Trump “effect”, Syrian war), is experiencing a critical deficit of unity and coordination of actions toward Russia, lack of public awareness as to the nature and goals of Putin’s regime, fears of nuclear confrontation with Russia. Meanwhile, the far-right political movements, Euroscepticism, populism, isolationism – i.e., “LePenisation” of Europe – may gain ground after the elections in France and Germany. (Quite telling in this context have been the recent elections in Bulgaria and Moldova, where pro-Russian socialists won). All of this is happening amid total depreciation of global and regional security structures, and is threatening not only with escalation of conflicts on the continent, but also with destruction of the European community. The Western world has not generated adequate and effective means, mechanisms and policies to counter Russia’s hybrid expansion. On the contrary, there is an increasing threat of disintegration of a single “sanctions front”, which Kremlin will view with impunity and encouragement for further active actions. The conflict in Syria has proven that Kremlin’s imperial policy is not limited to the post-Soviet space, and Ukraine is just a springboard for further expansion. In the past three years, the Russia-Ukraine conflict has become deep-rooted and long-term causing tectonic changes in relations between Kyiv and Moscow. Russia’s aggression has inflicted unprecedented human, territorial, economic losses on Ukraine, and from the entire range of bilateral relations (not to mention the war itself), for a long time to come has left Ukraine only the format of confrontational coexistence with Russia – limited, forced, and cold – depending on the unfolding situation. The Russia-Ukraine hybrid war is not a local, peripheral conflict. Kremlin’s aggression poses a threat not only to Ukraine’s statehood and sovereignty, but also to the unity of the EU and, in general, to the political structure of Europe. Therefore, finding adequate, effective forms of response, developing a common policy of countering Russia’s expansion is critically important.
- Topic:
- Territorial Disputes, Conflict, Hybrid Warfare, and Expansion
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Ukraine