Content Type: Journal Article / Political Geography: / Topic: Security

201. Colombian Military Transformation: Strategic Reality and Overcoming Resistances

Author:: Victor M. Mijares and Paula Alejandra Gonzalez
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
Institution:: Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Abstract:: After the signing of peace in Colombia, attention has been directed to the difficult process of implementing the agreements. This complex scenario has downplayed the problem of Colombian military transformation. The basis of that transformation, the Damasco doctrine, the, has encountered resistance within the Colombian Military Forces. Through the application of a process tracing method, we infer that there is a non-linear process, but in progress towards the fulfillment of the objectives of the doctrine. Thus, we identify three drivers that are making this transformation progress: a renewed confrontation with Venezuela; the changing nature of the domestic conflict; and the Colombia’s NATO global partner status.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Military Strategy, and Training
Political Geography:: Colombia and South America

202. The US Strategy for Short-Term Military Artificial Intelligence Development (2020-2030)

Author:: Daniel Barreiros and Italo Barreto Poty
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
Institution:: Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Abstract:: This article analyses the US Department of Defense initiative formalized in the Summary of the 2018 Department of Defense Artificial Intelligence Strategy. The conclusion is that the US emphasis on the use of artificial intelligence to expand C4ISR capabilities (command, control, communications, computers, intelligence, reconnaissance and surveillance) and the denunciation of “ethical risks’’ involving Lethal Autonomous Weapon Systems (LAWS) are narrative strategies aimed at dealing in the short term with the inability of the US technology agencies to master autonomous military platform technologies and with the Russian resolve on the development of these lethal autonomous military platforms.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Development, Military Strategy, Innovation, Artificial Intelligence, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

203. The Enduring Relevance of Naval Power: Reflections on Defence, Security and Power Projection of Sea Frontier

Author:: Samuel Oyewole
Publication Date:: 07-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
Institution:: Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Abstract:: The sea/maritime domain is a critical frontier of human exploration and exploitation for food production, transportation, commerce, research, communication, mining, defence, security, power projection and prestige in international system. These made it a frontier of strategic cooperation, competition and conflict. Consequently, the sea has been militarised by littoral states, which have led to the rise of naval powers, across time and space. Naval power is strategically relevant in defence, security and power projection, as evident in its roles in warfare, deterrence, policing, and diplomacy across history. This is even more pronounced during the golden age of naval power, when the roles of the navy were decisive in outcomes of war, territorial defence and conquest, empire building and maintenance, bargaining, industrialisation, commerce and global policing. However, the strategic relevance of naval power has undergone notable changes with the rise of air, nuclear and space powers. Against this background, this article examines the enduring strategic relevance of naval power over the last century, vis-à-vis its challenges and prospects among other instruments of force and frontiers of defence, security and power projection that have emerged.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Military Strategy, Navy, and Maritime
Political Geography:: Global Focus

204. Prioritization of Multilaterialsm Agreements on Export Control of Defense Products and Sensitive Technologies by Hierarchical Analysis Process

Author:: Luiz Octavio Gaviao, Luciano Dias Dutra, and Sergio Kostin
Publication Date:: 07-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
Institution:: Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Abstract:: This paper proposes a model to support the decision to choose which multilateral export control regime of defense products and sensitive technologies in which Brazil does not yet participate, namely, Wassenaar Arrangement, Australia Group and Zangger Committee, should be prioritized for adhesion. For the development of this model, the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) method was used, considered adequate for solving problems where criteria are qualitative and decisions tend to be based on personal experiences. The hierarchical structure of the problem used seven criteria (Country Legislation, Regulatory System, Licensing Structure, Enforcement Capacity, International Cooperation, Costs of Adhesion and Benefits for the Defense Industrial Base) to compare the three mentioned agreements. A questionnaire was set up and specialists related to National Defense were selected to answer them, after which their answers were collected, standardized, processed and analyzed. At the end, the agreements were ordered by preference to support decision making, illustrating the application of the proposed model.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Military Strategy, Multilateralism, and Defense Industry
Political Geography:: Global Focus

205. Defense Expenditure and Strategic Capabilities: Dissimilarities Among South American Countries

Author:: Angela Nogueira Neves and Tassio Franchi
Publication Date:: 07-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
Institution:: Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Abstract:: We take into account that interpretations of security complexes, traditions of long peace, and violent peace do not fully explain how South American countries are organized regarding Defense. Given those, we ran a cluster analysis with data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) and Military Balance report with economic defense expenditure and capabilities investment from South American countries to identify how they are organized, determining those that are most similar to each other (which would form complexes) and how they differ from the others (dissimilarities). The results showed four different clusters: the first formed by Chile, Peru, Argentina, and Bolivia; the second by Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador and Paraguay; the third only by the Guyana; and the fourth, formed only by Uruguay. We interpreted these clusters considering the history of conflicts, current countries threats and treaties.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Military Strategy, Military Spending, and Defense Industry
Political Geography:: South America

206. Globalization and the Changing Concept of NATO

Author:: Umair Pervez Khan and Kashaf Sohail
Publication Date:: 07-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
Institution:: Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Abstract:: North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) has been the most important and successful multilateral military cum political organization, pursuing the agenda of exporting democracy globally and ensuring the mutual defense of its allies. Historically, NATO was formed against the threat of communism emanating from USSR (Russia). The alliance did not use military option till the end of the cold war between the west and USSR, but post-cold war, it transformed and operated in Balkans, South Asia, Horn of Africa, and Middle East. The 9/11 incident further enhanced the military role of the organization and gave it ample reason to act internationally for ensuring the global security. America, being the leader of the alliance used it for fighting the so-called global war on terrorism and its adventures in Middle East. Nevertheless, in the last two decades the organization went through various changes and is now continuously in the state of transformation. The wave of populism which had influenced the very concept of globalization has posed serious challenges for the alliance. The Trump rhetoric of “America first”, BREXIT, challenges of migration, changing demography of Europe, assertion of Russia in global politics, confrontation between the NATO allies like Turkey and France, and rise of China are few factors which may affect the future of the so-called intergovernmental military alliance. This article concurrently discusses the new challenges for the NATO and sheds light on the possible options to the strategy of Biden administration to reverse the policies of its predecessor which have influenced the cooperation of different allies of NATO. In the end researcher has tried to put forth few recommendations which may help the policy makers to cope with the challenges NATO is facing. The study is qualitative and analytical in nature whereas primary as well as secondary sources are used for data collection.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, NATO, Globalization, Regional Cooperation, and Military Strategy
Political Geography:: Europe and North America

207. Security Studies in International Relations: Evolution, Approaches and Contemporary Challenges

Author:: Ali Muhammad and Sugeng Riyanto
Publication Date:: 07-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
Institution:: Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Abstract:: This article examines the growth and evolution of security studies since its emergence to the end the Cold War. Security studies as a subfield in international relations was dominated by realist approach during the Cold War. However, by the of the cold war, the concept of security was debated between the widener–deepener. Not only about the concept, but variety of theoretical approaches also emerged to challenge the traditional realist/liberal approach, such as, constructivism, critical theory, feminism, human security and postcolonialism. There were crucial differences in how these competing approaches constituted referent objects, the sectors to which security is applicable, and epistemological position as well.
Topic:: Security, Political Theory, Intellectual History, and Post Cold War
Political Geography:: Global Focus

208. The Iran Nuclear Deal: A Springboard for a New Middle East Security Architecture

Author:: Nabil Fahmy
Publication Date:: 02-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: The Iran nuclear deal could be the first building block in a new Middle East security architecture.
Topic:: Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, and Military Strategy
Political Geography:: Iran and Middle East

209. What to Expect from Biden in the Middle East

Author:: William B. Quandt
Publication Date:: 02-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: A Biden administration is likely to rewrite a lot of Trump’s Middle East policies, but the Israel-Palestine issue may not be a priority.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Military Strategy, and Leadership
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, North America, and United States of America

210. “Reconciliation” in the Communiqué of the Gulf Cooperation Council

Author:: Ibrahim Awad
Publication Date:: 02-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: A lengthy diplomatic process is still needed to pave the way toward a true Arab rapprochement.c
Topic:: Security, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Regionalism, and Reconciliation
Political Geography:: Africa, Middle East, and Gulf Nations

211. The Rise of the United Arab Emirates

Author:: Abdullkhaleq Abdulla
Publication Date:: 05-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: By harnessing national confidence, proactively dealing with regional security concerns and exercising geopolitical cooperation, the UAE is positioning itself as a regional powerhouse.
Topic:: Security, Governance, Hegemony, and Regionalism
Political Geography:: United Arab Emirates and Gulf Nations

212. Maintaining the U.S.-Saudi Relationship

Author:: Hussein Ibish
Publication Date:: 05-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: The once booming strategic alliance between Riyadh and Washington has weathered a number of regional storms but is beginning to show wear and tear.
Topic:: Security, Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Alliance, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Middle East, Saudi Arabia, North America, United States of America, and Gulf Nations

213. Solving the Nuclear Stalemate between Iran and the United States

Author:: Gawdat Bahgat
Publication Date:: 05-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: To reach an agreement on Iran’s nuclear program and provide an effective security apparatus across the region, all Middle Eastern countries need to move beyond a zero-sum mentality.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, Regional Cooperation, Military Strategy, and Regionalism
Political Geography:: Iran and Middle East

214. Iran and the GCC: Prospects for a Grand Reconciliation

Author:: Sharmine Narwani
Publication Date:: 05-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: To realize shared priorities and fulfill the Persian Gulf’s potential as a global cornerstone for energy and trade, hardline Gulf states must acquiesce to waning U.S. hegemony and pursue reconciliation with Iran.
Topic:: Security, Energy Policy, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Hegemony, and Reconciliation
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, North America, United States of America, and Gulf Nations

215. Saving a Water-Stressed Middle East

Author:: Neda Zawahri
Publication Date:: 10-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: Inefficient water management exacerbates water insecurity in the MENA region, already the area most vulnerable to the catastrophic impact of the climate crisis. Building adaptive capacity is critical to ensure national and individual water security.
Topic:: Security, Water, Infrastructure, and Food Security
Political Geography:: Middle East

216. Who Feels Climate Anxiety?

Author:: Sarah Jaquette Ray
Publication Date:: 10-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: In the simplest terms, the answer is: it depends on who perceives it as a threat, and what “anxiety” means to them.
Topic:: Security, Climate Change, Environment, and Natural Disasters
Political Geography:: Global Focus

217. The Pandemic as a Geopolitical Game Changer in the Indo-Pacific: The View from Japan

Author:: Glen S. Fukushima
Publication Date:: 07-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Joint U.S.-Korea Academic Studies
Institution:: Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
Abstract:: The coronavirus pandemic that struck in late 2019 has affected the world profoundly, and Japan is no exception. But the direct impact on Japan has been relatively small considering the number of cases of infections and deaths relative to the size of Japan’s population, particularly considering its elderly population and high density. For instance, among the G7 countries, Japan has had the fewest cases of infections (4,690 per million population as of May 2, 2021) compared to 32,276 in Canada, 40,620 in Germany, 64,804 in the United Kingdom, 66,828 in Italy, 86,283 in France, and 99,652 in the United States. Similarly, among the G7 countries, Japan has had by far the fewest number of deaths (81 per million population as of May 2, 2021) compared to 638 in Canada, 996 in Germany, 1,601 in France, 1,776 in the United States, 1,870 in the United Kingdom, and 2,004 in Italy. This chapter argues that although the direct disruptions to Japan resulting from the pandemic have been less than to the other G7 countries, the effect of the pandemic on other nations with strong geopolitical importance to Japan—in particular, the United States and China—coupled with changes in Japan’s domestic political and economic environment have accelerated changes in geopolitical posture and direction that were already in progress in Japan. The fundamental geopolitical challenge facing Japan is how to ensure its military security, political independence, and economic prosperity in the face of a less reliable and less predictable United States and a more powerful and more assertive China. For Japan, the ideal resolution of this challenge is to maintain positive and constructive relations with both countries, while recognizing the reality that even as economic ties with China—whether in trade, investment, finance, tourism, or the exchange of people—are growing relative to ties with the United States, political and security ties (and the sharing of common values) with the United States remain the centerpiece of Japan’s foreign policy. Given this context, it is only natural that Japan would seek to diversify and strengthen its relationships with other countries, regions, economic arrangements, and international organizations and institutions. This diversification, which could be seen since the end of the Cold War in the early 1990s, has gained momentum in recent years, and the pandemic has served only to accelerate it. The analysis proceeds through the examination of the following: 1) pandemic chronology; 2) Japan’s domestic politics; 3) relations with the United States; 4) relations with China; 5) Japan’s diversification strategy; and 6) conclusions.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, Geopolitics, and Economy
Political Geography:: Japan and Asia

218. How COVID-19 Has Affected the Geopolitics of Korea

Author:: Jung-Yeop Woo
Publication Date:: 07-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Joint U.S.-Korea Academic Studies
Institution:: Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
Abstract:: COVID-19 has not gone away, and observers are now discussing possible long-term effects of the pandemic, including on geopolitics. A report by the European Parliament discussed five COVID-generated factors that could impact the geopolitical environment, i.e., supply chains, health multilateralism, digital diplomacy, climate change, and democratic activism. It predicted a reshuffling of value chains, where cooperation within the same “bloc” would be strengthened, while states continue their reshoring efforts, consequently shifting the current geopolitical environment. The report pointed out that the pandemic necessitated thorough scientific cooperation and information sharing beyond the level that the WHO had initially offered, suggesting changes in patterns of behavior, as in adapting to digital platforms while opening opportunities for nations to counter climate change and strengthen their geopolitical positions. Moreover, it also looked at the number of protests resulting from the pandemic and its economic effects and suggested that such pressure would encourage governments to mollify inequality. Missing is optimism that countries will be stirred to pursue common interests. Missing too is the geopolitical fallout from acutely worsening Sino-U.S. relations, as in South Korea, which stands at the forefront of states facing pressure from both sides. With the unforeseen disruption in both global and domestic economies, much attention has been paid to the effect of COVID-19 on the economic side rather than the political side, perhaps because many did not expect that the pandemic would last this long. However, recent disruptions are clearly rife with serious political implications, both domestically and globally. Above all, as seen from Seoul, their impact on the relationship between Beijing and Washington demonstrated how much the economic forces could spill into geopolitics. Koreans follow this impact attentively, realizing that worsening Sino-U.S. ties may reverberate on one or both powers, increasing pressure on Seoul’s efforts to sustain a precarious balance for the sake of its North Korean policy and its hope for regional stability. Many nations in the Indo-Pacific have recently struggled between the United States and China, trying to find the most advantageous equilibrium between security and economy. South Korea has uniquely stood on the frontlines, as in 2016-17 when it bowed to the U.S. and deployed the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) missile defense targeting North Korea, which was met with strong Chinese pressure—strict economic sanctions through unofficial channels and demands to promise the “three noes” that restricted further missile defense deployment to deescalate the tension. President Biden’s new measures to bridge security and economy through multilateralism call for Seoul to choose between acceding to U.S. requests or risking China’s threats to respond aggressively—even as some anti-THAAD sanctions remain in place. President Xi Jinping’s warnings point to China’s harsh response. South Korean concerns have grown because of the relationship between the current global supply chains and geopolitics, which is a preoccupation of the Biden administration. Situated at the juncture of supply networks centering around China, South Korea’s economy is almost certain to be heavily hit. Furthermore, the pandemic brought ongoing pressures for de-globalization and de-dollarization to the forefront with major ramifications for Seoul. Much of the anxiety has focused on the geopolitics of deteriorating relations between Beijing and Washington. The former is warning Seoul against joining the Quad, agreeing to trilateralism with Japan and the U.S., and tilting the balance away from China in the Sino-U.S.-ROK triangle. Meanwhile, the Biden administration, even before it clarifies its regional strategy, is nudging Seoul in precisely the opposite direction. The year 2020 raised challenging issues for Seoul, which loom in 2021 as more severe geopolitical tests for the Moon administration. To properly gauge the effect of COVID-19 on South Korea’s geopolitics, it is crucial to understand the world before the pandemic. Has COVID-19 functioned as an independent variable in South Korean geopolitics? If there is a discernable difference, we have to see whether that difference was caused by COVID-19. This paper proceeds in four parts: 1) outlining the pre-pandemic status quo up until 2020; 2) assessing how COVID-19 affected international geopolitics; 3) examining how it influenced South Korea’s supply chain and geopolitics; and 4) analyzing ongoing discourse on South Korea’s strategic choice amid the U.S.-China rivalry. These sections are followed by brief conclusions on implications for policy choices.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, Geopolitics, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Asia and South Korea

219. China, ASEAN, and the Covid-19 Pandemic

Author:: Joseph Chinyong Liow
Publication Date:: 07-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Joint U.S.-Korea Academic Studies
Institution:: Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
Abstract:: For Southeast Asia, the COVID-19 pandemic was not only a public health crisis. It also provided an occasion for China to deepen its engagement in the region by dint of its own successful containment of the virus within its borders, and the resources it possessed to extend help to regional countries battling COVID-19 and its consequences, including economic, on their own shores. While Chinese help was welcomed, Southeast Asia also sought to avoid being beholden to any single external power. To that end, Southeast Asian states have actively pursued such diversification not only through efforts at reinforcing cooperation within ASEAN but also by using ASEAN as a vehicle to engage external powers. At the end of 2019, Chinese health authorities reported a cluster of pneumonia cases that had emerged in Wuhan, in the province of Hubei, which eventually led to the confirmation of a novel coronavirus. Several weeks later in January, the pandemic struck Southeast Asian shores when the first case outside of China was detected in Thailand. Within a few months, the world found itself in the grip of a global pandemic. By the end of January 2021, there were more than 100 million recorded cases of the COVID-19 infection, with over two million deaths. While the fatality rates are lower than those of previous pandemics of the SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome) strain, it has by far been the most infectious, prompting Singapore foreign minister Vivian Balakrishnan to opine that with the pandemic “we are facing a global life and death crisis which requires extraordinary measures.” Threats posed by pandemics are not new to Southeast Asia. In the last two decades alone, the region had been beset by several transnational health crises, of which SARS and the H5N1 Avian Flu were arguably the most lethal. What is striking about the current climate, however, is the backdrop against which the pandemic is playing out: the COVID-19 pandemic has hastened the further bifurcation of an international order that was already threatening to come undone because of the intensification of Sino-U.S. rivalry and American withdrawal from multilateralism under Donald J. Trump. Southeast Asian states found themselves increasingly compelled to reassess their relationships with external powers. Taking the present pandemic as a point of entry, this paper considers its impact on Southeast Asia’s relations with China and the U.S. The paper makes three main arguments. First, it contends that Sino-U.S. rivalry has sharpened over the COVID-19 pandemic by dint of the politicization of this public health crisis by both parties. Second, it argues that China has identified and seized upon opportunities presented by the pandemic to enhance its regional and global standing through continued support for multilateralism and economic engagement through initiatives such as the BRI, in turn creating favorable conditions for the advancement of its foreign policy interests. Conversely, because of the severe deficiencies in how the Trump administration handled the pandemic domestically, the Biden administration will have to prioritize its domestic challenges at the expense of greater bandwidth and resources for foreign policy, especially in Southeast Asia, a region that since the end of the Vietnam War has never featured prominently in Washington’s pursuit of its overseas interests. Third, it posits that while Southeast Asia has doubtless benefited from Chinese support during this crisis, the region remains skeptical of Chinese strategic intent and concerned about overreliance. States have tried to diversify relations with regional powers while strengthening cooperation within ASEAN. The paper first looks, by way of background, at how the pandemic emerged as the latest arena of Sino-U.S. rivalry. It then explores how China has handled the pandemic domestically, where its success has allowed it to expand its influence as a putative provider of “global public goods.” In the interest of brevity, the paper then focuses on ASEAN by documenting collective regional efforts and strategies to navigate great power rivalry in the realm of global public health.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, ASEAN, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: China and Asia

220. The COVID-19 Pandemic and Geopolitics in the Indo-Pacific: A View from the United States

Author:: Jacques deLisle
Publication Date:: 07-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Joint U.S.-Korea Academic Studies
Institution:: Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
Abstract:: The COVID-19 pandemic poses significant geopolitical challenges and presents opportunities for the United States in the Indo-Pacific. The Trump administration bungled the crisis, damaging the U.S.’s standing as a paragon of competence in public health, and functional governance more generally. The international face of the U.S. response deepened preexisting concerns—especially significant in the Indo-Pacific—that the U.S. had retreated from its post-Second World War and post-Cold War role of providing international public goods and leadership and supporting international institutions. Opportunities for the U.S. amid the crisis and in its aftermath stem primarily from shortcomings or unappealing features in China’s handling of the epidemic, and stumbles in China’s self-presentation as a provider of foreign assistance and international cooperation, and from U.S. policies—many of them embraced by the Biden administration—that could correct missteps and ameliorate trends that have diminished U.S. standing (especially during Donald Trump’s presidency). For the U.S. to reap potential gains, it also must adapt its policies to the implications of some Indo-Pacific states’ comparatively successful responses to the pandemic, and the pandemic-spotlighted nature of contemporary international problems.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, Foreign Policy, Domestic Politics, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: United States of America and Indo-Pacific

221. The Pandemic as a Geopolitical Gamechanger in the Indo-Pacific: The View from China

Author:: Yun Sun
Publication Date:: 07-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Joint U.S.-Korea Academic Studies
Institution:: Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
Abstract:: How has the COVID-19 pandemic reshaped or influenced China’s geopolitical outlook and its grand strategy for the years to come? This is a question that will determine China’s relationship with the United States, the Indo-Pacific region, and the rest of the world. In the Chinese strategic community, the pandemic has been regarded as a “watershed” event that has reshaped the structure of the international system and the power equilibrium. Its importance is elevated to the same status as the end of World War II, which determined the bipolar international system between the U.S. and the Soviet Union, and the end of the Cold War which began thirty years of U.S. hegemony in a unipolar world. Although China began as a sheer loser in the pandemic given its culpability in the origin of COVID and its early poor management of the domestic spread of the disease, Beijing believes that it has eventually emerged as a pure winner in the pandemic: the relative gain China has made vis-à-vis the U.S.’s bigger losses in disease control, national power, economic growth, global leadership, and credibility has strengthened Chinese confidence that the tide is turning in China’s favor. The “effectiveness” of the Chinese political system, as manifested in its domestic disease control, has reinforced China’s ideological conviction of its superiority. As China uses COVID diplomacy to demonstrate the superiority and desirability of its political system, the pandemic is perceived as an opportunity for it to shape the new international order and promote China’s desired “Community of Common Destiny.” Challenges remain, as the U.S. revamps its alliance system under the Biden administration and as regional powers and Western countries grow increasingly concerned and anxious about China’s growing confidence and capabilities. However, for China, the pandemic has been a great opportunity, and China has emerged from it as a pure winner. It is an interesting question as to how the pandemic has changed the nature and the dynamics of the great power competition between the U.S. and China. Most would agree that the pandemic exacerbated, accelerated, and aggravated the deterioration of relations that the U.S. and China had already been experiencing before 2020. However, the differences lie in the degree, intensity, velocity, and extensiveness of the damage. Without the pandemic, the downward slope U.S. and China had already been on would not have come to a state of “freefall” in 2020. And that “freefall” period has long-lasting and significant implications for their bilateral relations in the post-COVID world. The damaged trust, confidence, and credibility, and the deeply entrenched sense of hostility, or even antagonism, have made any effort to repair the relations extremely difficult, if not completely impossible. And this reality will affect the regional dynamics in the Indo-Pacific region for the many years and decades to come.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, Foreign Policy, Geopolitics, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, United States of America, and Indo-Pacific

222. Georgia After the Second Karabakh War

Author:: Mamuka Tsereteli
Publication Date:: 08-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Baku Dialogues
Institution:: ADA University
Abstract:: The outcome of the Second Karabakh War between Azerbaijan and Armenia significantly transformed the geopolitical reality in the South Caucasus, with implications for the wider Black Sea‑Caspian region. The unsettled political geography of the South Caucasus and the ethno‑political separatism fueled by external actors since the early 1990s left bleeding wounds on the bodies of the newly re‑emerged sovereign states of Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia. These conflicts have determined the trajectory of the geopolitical developments of the region for the last 30 years, including on the foreign policy orientations of these new states. The conflicts in the South Caucasus were the primary challenge for transforming the strategic assets of this region into greater political and economic success. Three major conflict areas in the South Caucasus were former autonomous regions, created in the early Soviet period: Nagorno‑Karabakh, Abkhazia, and the Tskhinvali region, what was called South Ossetia. (Briefly: the latter term was introduced by the Soviets in the 1920s as a name for the newly created autonomous area in Georgia, populated by Ossetians alongside ethnic Georgians. The historic homeland of Ossetians is located to the north of the Greater Caucasus mountains. Following the Soviet tradition of planting ethno‑political time bombs, Ossetia proper—located in the Russian Federation—was named North Ossetia, while the Tskhinvali region of Georgia—with the Ossetian population at the time concentrated in the border areas with Russia—was named South Ossetia.) As of today, all three of these areas are self‑proclaimed independent states, are formally ruled by de facto governments, and saw fierce military confrontation in the early 1990s. In 2008, the Tskhinvali region became the battleground between Russian and Georgian forces. In 2020, Azerbaijan regained through a combination of military action and diplomatic brinksmanship all seven regions outside of Nagorno‑ Karabakh that had been occupied by Armenia, as well as one‑third of the former Nagorno‑Karabakh region. In the case of Abkhazia and the Tskhinvali region/South Ossetia, as of mid‑2021, these territories remain, in reality, governed by Russian occupational forces. The Russian military influence was inserted into Karabakh after the war that ended on November 10th, 2020, with Russian peacekeepers playing an increasing role in the governance of the region. In terms of geopolitical orientation, Armenia willingly allowed Russian troops onto its territory, seeing them as a security guarantee and deterrent against Azerbaijan. Georgia aligned itself with the Western powers, determined to join NATO and the EU. The conflicts on Georgian territory are seen as punishment from Russia for Georgia’s pro‑Western focus. As a result, there has been a heavy Russian military presence in the separatist areas of Georgia since the Russian invasion to Georgia in 2008.
Topic:: Security, Economics, Military Strategy, Conflict, and Peace
Political Geography:: Europe, Asia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia

223. From Struggle to Permanent Failure Why the Karabakh Attempt at Secession Failed

Author:: Azer Babayev
Publication Date:: 04-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Baku Dialogues
Institution:: ADA University
Abstract:: After 44 days of fighting, the Second Karabakh War came to an end on 10 November 2020 as a result of a Russian‑brokered ceasefire agreement. The most important questions here appear to be: what led to this dangerous military escalation, and what does it mean for the conflict, given that it seems to have now entered into a (new) political phase, again? In the declining Soviet Union, what was originally a status dispute over the autonomous Nagorno‑Karabakh region escalated into an international violent conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan in the early 1990s. Following the end of a bloody war in 1994 (the First Karabakh War, 1992‑ 1994), a fragile situation around the conflict region took root: the “frozen conflict,” as it came to be known, lasted for nearly three decades and led to conditions of neither war nor peace. And during this period, it was feared that the longer the sides had to wait for a peace agreement to be reached, the more likely the conflict would re‑escalate and eventually erupt again into a hot war. As it turned out, this is exactly what happened: an all‑out six‑week war erupted again unexpectedly between the conflict parties in late September 2020, and, as a result, the Armenian side more or less capitulated. But first things first: in the First Karabakh War, Azerbaijan suffered a major defeat, ceding to Armenian forces not only the secessionist region itself but also seven surrounding territories. These other lands were, as a whole, twice the size of Nagorno‑ Karabakh itself and contained five times the old oblast’s population, the entirety of which was expelled by the time an armistice was signed in 1994. And that is why during this war the UN Security Council responded by passing four resolutions demanding the withdrawal of Armenian forces from the occupied areas of Azerbaijan. However, the UN resolutions failed to have any effect. Since that time, no international protagonists felt a strong, compelling need to try to resolve the Nagorno‑ Karabakh conflict. In addition, all international actors dismissed the idea of “power mediation.” Moreover, although Russia as a key international actor is directly involved in all the conflicts on the territory of the former Soviet Union, its involvement in the Nagorno‑Karabakh dispute has been rather indirect: in the Karabakh case, Moscow has been both a critical and a questionable actor. On the one hand, the Kremlin has taken a central position in mediating a peaceful settlement to the conflict while, on the other hand, it has been delivering weapons to both sides. This last represents perhaps the most striking situation regarding the international dimension of the conflict. Russia is militarily allied with Armenia and has a military presence in the country. It has provided security guarantees to Yerevan, primarily through their shared membership in the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), which neutralized to a certain extent the potential effects of Russian arms being sold to financially strong Azerbaijan on a purely commercial basis.
Topic:: Security, War, Conflict, and Peace
Political Geography:: Europe, Asia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan

224. Beijing’s Long Way to the Gulf Region Oil, Security, Geopolitics

Author:: Fuad Shahbazov
Publication Date:: 04-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Baku Dialogues
Institution:: ADA University
Abstract:: Energy cooperation has been a key aspect of growing bilateral cooperation between China and the Arab states of the Gulf region for the past several years. Since 1996, China has become a net importer of crude oil and, as the second‑largest energy consumer in the world after the United States, is now the third‑largest importer of oil after the United States and Japan. Therefore, it should not come as a surprise that China is eying a deep and strategic partnership with the states of a region that sits on top of the world’s largest proven crude oil and natural gas reserves. The deepening political and economic cooperation between China and the member states of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) has received increasing attention from the region’s more established strategic players: foremost the United States, but also the UK as well as the EU and some of its member states. Indeed, the region’s apparent geopolitical challenges— such as the American withdrawal from the Middle East, the escalation of sectarian wars in the region, the outbreak and development of the Syrian conflict followed by the spread of Islamic radicalism and similar threats—have encouraged the Arab states in the Gulf (as well as Iran) to look more to the East for new reliable partners. This has provided China with an opportunity to obtain a foothold in the region, which sits adjacent to the Silk Road region and is therefore of significant and lasting interest to readers of Baku Dialogues. With the rapid growth of its economy and consequent heightened energy demands, China is viewed as a potential investor by the oil rich GCC states, each of which needs to diversify its economy. Ongoing Western sanctions directed against Iran also make China an attractive proposition for Tehran. Although the Chinese interest in, and policy towards, the region is increasingly complex, this new axis between the Gulf region (especially the Arab half) and China has not received much attention from the think tank and academic communities—at least in the West.
Topic:: Security, International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, Oil, Natural Resources, Hegemony, and Energy
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and Gulf Nations

225. Ukraine’s Strategic Relations with the South Caucasus With References to Turkey and Russia

Publication Date:: 04-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Baku Dialogues
Institution:: ADA University
Abstract:: kraine’s relations with the three Southern Caucasian states of Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Armenia have been varied during the three decades since the disintegration of the Soviet Union. Ukraine has paid greater attention to pro‑Western Georgia and multivectoral Azerbaijan, and the least attention to pro‑Russian Armenia. In Soviet times, the Ukrainian and Georgian dissident and nationalist movements maintained close ties, and this influenced the development of friendly relations between Ukraine and Georgia in the post‑Soviet era. From the late 1990s onwards, Ukraine and Georgia made joining both NATO and the EU priority goals, which also played a role in bringing Kyiv and Tbilisi together. Azerbaijan pursued a multi‑vector foreign policy of integration without membership in these two institutions, managing to be cautiously pro‑Western but at the same time not anti‑Russian. Armenia, on the other hand, has been a member of all Russian‑led regional integration projects since the early 1990s, and therefore Kyiv has had few common interests with Yerevan. Relations with Armenia have deteriorated since 2014 because of Armenia’s support for Russia’s annexation of Crimea and the presence of Armenian mercenaries fighting against Ukraine in the ranks of Russia’s proxies in the Donbas. During the Second Karabakh War, the Ukrainian media, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and all political parties (except one pro‑Russian one) enthusiastically supported Azerbaijan.
Topic:: Security, International Cooperation, Regionalism, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Turkey, and Ukraine

226. Mexico 2018-2021: Pandemic, Crisis, Security and Geopolitics/México 2018-2021: Pandemia, Crisis, Seguridad y Geopolítica

Author:: Raúl Benítez Manaut
Publication Date:: 05-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:: Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:: The article starts from the hypothesis that the COVID-19 pandemic re-evaluates the concept of multidimensional security, which emerged from the 2003 meeting of the Organization of American States. It is argued that, at the level of hemispheric geopolitics, it is in the three most populous countries, under the nationalist and populist leaderships of Donald Trump, Jair Bolsonaro and Andrés Manuel López Obrador, where the pandemic has wreaked the most havoc. The similarities in the initial handling of the pandemic, its minus-valuation, the so-called Fourth Transformation policy and its characteristics, deployed by President López Obrador in Mexico and its effect on the militarization of the country are analyzed as well as the impact of the pandemic on the population and the great economic crisis induced. It is concluded that Mexico is experiencing a "militarization with popular support", and that the pandemic has favored the public image of the military. / El artículo se desarrolla sobre la hipótesis de que la pandemia COVID-19 revalora el concepto de seguridad multidimensional, desprendido de la reunión de la Organización de Estados Americanos de 2003. Se afirma que, a nivel de la geopolítica del hemisferio, es en los tres países más poblados, los liderazgos nacionalistas y populistas de Donald Trump, Jair Bolsonaro y Andrés Manuel López Obrador, donde la pandemia ha causado más estragos. Se analizan las similitudes en el manejo inicial de la pandemia, su minusvaloración, la llamada política de la Cuarta Transformación y sus características, desplegada por el presidente López Obrador en México y el efecto que tiene en la militarización del país; el impacto de la pandemia en la población y la gran crisis económica inducida. Se concluye que México vive una “militarización con respaldo popular”, y que la pandemia ha sido un elemento que ha favorecido a los militares en su imagen pública.
Topic:: Security, Populism, COVID-19, and Militarization
Political Geography:: Brazil, Latin America, Mexico, and United States of America

227. The "Venezuela Factor": COVID-19 in times of Bolivarian Revolution/El “factor Venezuela”: Covid-19 En Tiempos De Revolución Bolivariana

Author:: Rafael Rincón-Urdaneta Zerpa
Publication Date:: 05-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:: Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:: COVID-19 pandemic has exposed gaps and vulnerabilities around the world and, at the same time, has highlighted the demand for more cooperation and commitment from countries to address global risks and challenges. However, not all nations are in a position to meet these demands. In Latin America, hard hit by the pandemic, Venezuela appears as one of the most critical countries. COVID-19 has arrived in a country whose institutional and economic deterioration has been affected by two decades of steep decline. Its democratic institutions are among the worst evaluated on the planet and its economic and social situation has been dramatically reported with the massive exodus of Venezuelans. This article presents a very general diagnosis of what could be called "the Venezuela factor" in the regional context under the prism of COVID-19. / La pandemia del COVID-19 ha expuesto falencias y vulnerabilidades en todo el mundo y ha advertido la demanda de más cooperación y compromiso por parte de los países para enfrentar los riesgos y desafíos globales. Sin embargo, no todas las naciones están en condiciones de asumir estas exigencias. En América Latina, duramente golpeada por la pandemia, Venezuela aparece como uno de los factores más críticos. El COVID-19 ha llegado a un país cuyo deterioro institucional y económico supera las dos décadas de acentuado declive. Sus instituciones democráticas se encuentran entre las peor evaluadas del planeta y su situación económica y social se ha expresado dramáticamente en el éxodo masivo de venezolanos. En este artículo se presenta un diagnóstico muy general de lo que podría llamarse «el factor Venezuela» en el contexto regional bajo el prisma del COVID-19.
Topic:: Security, Regional Cooperation, Leadership, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Latin America and Venezuela

228. COVID-19 and the security sector in Ecuador: A case of strategic surprise/El COVID-19 y el sector securitario en Ecuador: Un caso de sorpresa estratégica

Author:: Lester Cabrera Toledo
Publication Date:: 05-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:: Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:: This article tries to reflect on the situation experienced by the security sector in Ecuador during the first 3 months of the COVID-19 pandemic. In this sense, it starts presenting the diffuse strategic planning, the weakness of the strategic intelligence system existing in Ecuador and how as a consequence of the events experienced in October 2019, the security sector was hit by a “strategic surprise” when the pandemic occurred and, as a result, short-term responses were produced without an adequate planning process. It is concluded that although the country has overcome the moment of "strategic surprise", the main challenge lies in the necessity to discuss and make a diagnosis of the situation, through lessons learned, to achieve an understanding of security as a state policy./El presente artículo tiene como principal objetivo reflexionar sobre la situación vivida por el sector securitario en Ecuador, durante el contexto de los primeros 3 meses que el país experimentó los efectos de la pandemia del COVID-19. En este sentido, parte de la hipótesis de que, como consecuencia de los acontecimientos vividos en octubre de 2019, una planificación estratégica difusa, y la debilidad del sistema de inteligencia estratégica, el ámbito securitario se vio envuelto en un proceso de “sorpresa estratégica”, lo que dio como resultado respuestas coyunturales sin el marco de un adecuado proceso de planificación. Se concluye que, si bien el país superó el momento de “sorpresa estratégica”, el principal desafío recae en la necesidad de contar con una discusión sobre el diagnóstico de la situación, por medio de lecciones aprendidas, con el principal objetivo de concebir a la seguridad como una política de Estado.
Topic:: Security, COVID-19, and Strategic Planning
Political Geography:: Latin America and Ecuador

229. Dynamics of insecurity and violence during the pandemic in Colombia/Dinámicas de la inseguridad y la violencia durante la pandemia en Colombia

Author:: Jerónimo Ríos and César Niño
Publication Date:: 05-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:: Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:: The purpose of the following article is to present the main dynamics of criminal activities and violence produced by the armed conflict in Colombia during the pandemic caused by COVID-19. After a review of the most relevant literature produced in 2020, this study presents trends in criminal violence, lato sensu, and those associated with the internal armed conflict. The situation of paralysis that the confinement produced has not translated into a mitigation of the phenomenon of violence. Thus, the massacres and murders of social leaders, activists, human rights defenders or ex-guerrillas of the FARC-EP has remained constant if not increasing during this time. This must also be related to a context of difficulty added to a Peace Agreement signed with the FARC-EP in November 2016. This must also be related to a context of added difficulty to a Peace Agreement signed with the FARC-EP in November 2016, which, in addition to governmental resistance and non-compliance, is overcome by an increasingly intense violence, which hinders the prospects of a peace-building scenario in the country./El propósito del siguiente trabajo es el de presentar cuáles han sido las principales dinámicas de las actividades delictivas y de la violencia producida por el conflicto armado en Colombia durante la pandemia ocasionada por la COVID-19. Tras una revisión de la literatura más relevante producida en 2020, se presentan las tendencias de la violencia delictiva, lato sensu, y las asociadas con el conflicto armado interno. La situación de parálisis que produjo el confinamiento no se ha traducido en una mitigación del fenómeno de la violencia. Así, las masacres y asesinatos de líderes sociales, activistas, defensores de derechos humanos o exguerrilleros de las FARC-EP se ha mantenido constante cuando no creciente durante este tiempo. Ello debe relacionarse, además, con un contexto de dificultad añadida a un Acuerdo de Paz suscrito con las FARC-EP en noviembre 2016, que además de por las resistencias gubernamentales e incumplimientos, se encuentra superado por una geografía de la violencia cada vez más intensa, que aleja los visos de un escenario de construcción de paz en el país.
Topic:: Security, Violence, COVID-19, and Armed Conflict
Political Geography:: Colombia and South America

230. COVID-19 and its impact on Chile security and defense scenario/El COVID-19 y su impacto en el escenario de seguridad y defensa de Chile: Impacto nacional y regional

Author:: John Griffiths Spielman and Aldo Cassinelli Capurro
Publication Date:: 05-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:: Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:: The COVID19 pandemic has hit Chile in the midst of a social outbreak, consequently, its impact and effect has also had a degree of politicization among the various political actors. Nonetheless, the health crisis has been skillfully managed by the current authorities, with Chile´s efforts being internationally prominent, both in obtaining supplies and in handling the crisis. The foregoing has presented risks, threats and also opportunities, which in the national case have been overcome thanks to the integration and effective coordination of the various state and non-state actors. In this, the participation of the armed forces has played a crucial role together with other organizations, in the search for solutions that in the case of Chile have allowed to adequately face the pandemic. Notwithstanding, at the regional level, cooperation efforts have not been adequately reflected since an individualistic and competitive attitude has prevailed, without prejudice to the existence of some specific actions or events of interstate solidarity./La pandemia COVID19 ha golpeado a Chile en pleno desarrollo de un estallido social, en consecuencia, su impacto y efecto también ha tenido un grado de politización entre los diversos actores políticos. Sin embargo, la crisis sanitaría ha sido hábilmente manejada por las actuales autoridades, siendo el esfuerzo de Chile destacado internacionalmente, tanto en la obtención de insumos, como en el manejo de la crisis. Lo anterior, ha presentado riesgos, amenazas y también oportunidades, que en el caso nacional se han podido sortear gracias a la integración y efectiva coordinación de los diversos actores estatales y no estatales. En ello, la participación de las fuerzas armadas (FFAAs) ha sido clave junto a otros organismos, para la búsqueda de soluciones que han permitido en el caso de Chile enfrentar adecuadamente la pandemia. Sin embargo, en el plano regional no se han podido plasmar adecuadamente los esfuerzos de cooperación ya que ha primado una actitud individualista y de competencia, sin perjuicio de existir algunas acciones o hechos específicos de solidaridad interestatal.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Regional Cooperation, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Health Crisis
Political Geography:: Latin America and Chile

231. Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in Argentina and in the regional security scenario/Impacto de la pandemia COVID-19 en Argentina y en el escenario regional

Author:: María Lourdes Puente Olivera and Antonio López Llovet
Publication Date:: 05-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:: Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:: The article reviews the effects of the pandemic in Argentina, with a special focus on the areas of security and defense, as well as its effects on the country's foreign policy, in view of the regional and global scenario it has to face. The final conclusion shows the challenges that Argentina has to face to operate in this strategic field, under the uncertainties of the world to come./El artículo versa sobre los efectos que tuvo la pandemia en la Argentina y hace un foco especial en las áreas de seguridad y defensa; además sus efectos en la política exterior del país, en vistas del escenario regional y global que enfrenta. La conclusión final da cuenta de los desafíos que enfrenta Argentina para desenvolverse en este campo estratégico, en la incertidumbre del mundo que viene.
Topic:: Security, Armed Forces, Conflict, Risk, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Argentina and Latin America

232. COVID-19 and the militarization of the State in Brazil/COVID-19 y la militarización del Estado en Brasil

Author:: Thiago Rodrigues, Maíra Fedatto, and Mariana Kalil
Publication Date:: 05-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:: Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:: Brazil has been hit hard by the new coronavirus pandemic. In such a context, there has been an increasing transference of decision-making and policy-making power to the military, and the Brazilian national response to COVID-19 has eventually come under military authority. Based on the current debate on the on-going securitization of public health in the world following the outbreak of the new coronavirus, we engage with recent literature in an attempt to demonstrate Brazil’s singular pattern of military interference in public health. It is our hypothesis that in Brazil there is a process of militarization of the responses to the pandemic without, however, a concomitant process of securitization. This is possible because the Bolsonaro Administration combines denialism toward the COVID-19 pandemic with the gradual delegation of key political roles to the military. We claim, finally, that the Brazilian case of military response to COVID-19 offers analytical instruments to study other cases of imbalance in civil-military relations throughout the Global South./La pandemia del nuevo coronavirus ha impactado severamente a Brasil. En este contexto, las fuerzas armadas han recibido sustancial aumento en su capacidad de decisión y de elaboración de políticas públicas de respuesta a la COVID-19. A partir del presente debate sobre la creciente securitización de la salud pública global en tiempos de pandemia, nosotros convocamos a la literatura reciente sobre el tema con el objetivo de demostrar la originalidad del caso brasileño respeto a la interferencia militar en salud pública. Nuestra hipótesis destaca que en Brasil ha existido un proceso de militarización de las respuestas a la pandemia sin que haya un simultaneo proceso de securitización. Ello es posible porque el Gobierno Bolsonaro combina negacionismo respeto a la pandemia con una gradual delegación a los militares de puestos claves en la toma de decisiones. Argumentamos que el caso brasileño ofrece instrumentos de análisis importantes para el estudio de otros casos de desequilibrio de las relaciones cívico-militares en el Sur Global.
Topic:: Security, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Militarization
Political Geography:: Brazil and Latin America

233. La dimensión informativa sobre la guerra: su aplicación al caso de la intervención militar turca en Rojava

Author:: José Alberto Moreno
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:: Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:: The Turkish Military Intervention in the Syrian part of the Kurdistan region, known as Rojava, shows that the Syrian Civil War presents a great number of different sides. The objective of the intervention is to create a safe zone where two million syrians could be resettle, expelling from the area the kurd militias that oppose the government in Ankara. The present article wants to deep in the use of frames used by the Spanish written press when covering the Turkish military intervention in the Arab country. Through a classic and cuantitative methodology, named analysis of content, this paper will go into the mediatic discourses of the national press with the purpose of exploring what explanations are having a biggest importance. This contribution tries to explore if the humanitarian question weights more heavily that the ones focused on security./La intervención militar turca en el Kurdistán sirio, conocido como Rojava, demuestra que la guerra civil siria presenta una gran cantidad de aristas. El objetivo de la misma es crear una zona de seguridad donde reasentar a más de dos millones de refugiados sirios y expulsar del lugar a las milicias kurdas, opositoras al gobierno de Ankara. El presente artículo tiene como finalidad ahondar en el uso de encuadres utilizados por la prensa escrita española a la hora de cubrir la intervención militar turca en el país árabe. A través de una metodología clásica y cuantitativa, análisis de contenido, se ahondará en los discursos mediáticos de la prensa nacional con el objetivo de investigar qué narrativas están teniendo mayor peso. Esta contribución intenta explorar si las cuestiones humanitarias presentan mayor relevancia que las explicaciones centradas en la seguridad.
Topic:: Security, War, Mass Media, Military Intervention, Conflict, and Syrian War
Political Geography:: Turkey, Syria, and Rojava

234. Strategic autonomy in security and defense: The EU geopolitical aspiration that is not being realized/Autonomía estratégica en seguridad y defensa: un anhelo geopolítico que no se hace realidad en la Unión Europea

Author:: María José Molina and Miguel Ángel Benedicto
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Revista UNISCI/UNISCI Journal
Institution:: Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:: In the troubled and insecure global and regional international systems, the European Union is committed to become an operational, autonomous and credible actor in the present international relations, despite a certain internal erosion of the pillars of integration, the lack of a common strategic culture that prevents a clear identification of political and security priorities, plus the new US approaches towards the European Union, no longer its strategic priority. The US would only provide assistance to the EU when its national interests are affected. Consequently, Europe must modify its approaches to face contemporary geopolitical and strategic changes and perhaps the change of paradigm in world governance. This study tries to explain the current policies and initiatives of the Union in the field of security and defense, questioning its consistency./En el convulso e inseguro contexto global y regional, la Unión Europea apuesta por reivindicarse como un actor operativo, autónomo y creíble en las actuales relaciones internacionales, pese al cierto desgaste interno que acusan los pilares que cimentan la integración, la falta de una cultura estratégica común que impide una clara identificación de prioridades políticas y de seguridad y la nueva actitud de EE.UU. hacia el concierto europeo, que deja de ser una prioridad para sólo aportar asistencia cuando sus intereses nacionales se vean afectados. Consecuentemente, Europa debe modificar sus planteamientos para enfrentarse a las coordenadas geopolíticas y estratégicas contemporáneas, y quizás al cambio de paradigma en la gobernanza mundial. Estas consideraciones encauzan el objeto general de nuestro estudio destinado a comprender y cuestionar cuál es el perfil real y actual de la Unión en el ámbito de la seguridad y defensa regional e internacional.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, European Union, Geopolitics, International Order, and Strategic Autonomy
Political Geography:: Europe

235. Do IT Tools Help Develop Community Policing? Lessons Learned from the Implementation of The National Security Threat Map in Poland

Author:: Robert Gawlowski, Mariusz Kubiak, Juliusz Piwowarski, and Dariusz Minikiewicz
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Polish Political Science Yearbook
Institution:: Polish Political Science Association (PPSA)
Abstract:: In many countries, the police, as a part of public administration, have witnessed many changes during the last few years. This article explores the process of the reform of the Polish police force, which took place between 2015 and 2017. Doing so examines in detail the process of implementing an IT tool – The National Security Threat Map – by paying particular attention to the mechanism of engaging external stakeholders. This study is conceptual but empirically focused. The paper posits that, despite the hierarchical nature of the police administration structure, it is possible to build an engagement of external stakeholders.
Topic:: Security, National Security, Cybersecurity, Police, and Information Technology
Political Geography:: Europe and Poland

236. Cybersecurity Politics – Conceptualization of the Idea

Author:: Marek Gorka
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Polish Political Science Yearbook
Institution:: Polish Political Science Association (PPSA)
Abstract:: The cybersecurity issue discussed in the paper is seen from the perspective of political science with the indication that the subject under discussion concerns the multifaceted nature of the state’s actions, which consists of political, economic, social, and cultural factors. At the same time, the work also intends to prove that cybersecurity is not only a domain of technology because it is the mentioned aspects that shape the conditions of stable development of the state and its citizens in a space dominated by cyber technology in a much more decisive way. Given the growing role of cybertechnology in almost all areas of human life, its importance also forces and inspires political science to question the shape and model of modern policy, which is significantly evolving under the influence of new technologies. On the one hand, emerging cyber threats reveal the weakness of the state and the dependence of state institutions on cybertechnologies, but on the other hand, existing cyber incidents may also motivate many governments to take action to increase the level of cybersecurity.
Topic:: Security, International Cooperation, Politics, Cybersecurity, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Global Focus

237. Competition for High Politics in Cyberspace: Technological Conflicts Between China and the USA

Author:: Karina Veronica Val Sanchez and Nezir Akyeşilmen
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Polish Political Science Yearbook
Institution:: Polish Political Science Association (PPSA)
Abstract:: This paper highlighted the use of cyberspace as a conflict zone by the US and China, focusing on competition in various technological spheres, including cyberespionage, military technology, and Artificial Intelligence (AI). The main purpose of this study was to depict how great powers manipulate the cyber domain for their high political objectives through US-China rivalry. The research has been carried out mainly via literature review, discourse analysis, and relevant statistics. Consistent with previous literature and global public perception, the outcome has shown that both states are using cyberspace as a new domain for completion in trade, technology, and military purposes. Cyberespionage, the militarization of cyberspace, and AI have been the main conflict areas between these two global competitors in the last decade.
Topic:: Security, Science and Technology, Military Strategy, Cybersecurity, Conflict, Strategic Competition, and Information Technology
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

238. Mass Migration as a Hybrid Threat? – A Legal Perspective

Author:: Sascha Dov Bachmann and Anthony Paphiti
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Polish Political Science Yearbook
Institution:: Polish Political Science Association (PPSA)
Abstract:: Migration as a weapon sounds like a policy statement by resurgent nationalistic parties (and governments) in the West. However, politics and the human cost aside, what if an adversary (both state and non-state actor) does exploit the current global crisis of mass migration due to globalization, war, and political unrest? This article will look at the ongoing mass migration to the European Union within the wider security context of the so-called hybrid threats and/or ‘grey zone’ tactics. It looks at the various legal categories of migration as how the law can be weaponized as so-called ‘lawfare’ to undermine the existing legal frameworks distinguishing between legal and illegal migration. The authors recognize the possibility that this article will be used as an argument by the political actors involved for their nationalistic and anti-migration politics and policies. Yet, we believe that the potential of abusing the current vacuum for political gains along ideological party lines makes it necessary to provide a wider legal-security focused perspective on mass migration.
Topic:: Security, Migration, Immigration, Law, Border Control, and Humanitarian Crisis
Political Geography:: Global Focus

239. Public Security and Public Order – Conceptual and Institutional Scope

Author:: Janusz Gierszewski and Andrzej Pieczywok
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Polish Political Science Yearbook
Institution:: Polish Political Science Association (PPSA)
Abstract:: The publication aims to analyze public security and public order in conceptual and institutional terms as an analytical category of security sciences. The legislator defines neither public security nor public order. So far, they have been treated mainly as categories of administrative law. It is therefore important to assign them analytical content in the new scientific discipline. The research results allowed for the presentation of the thesis that public security and public order are mainly connected with protection against pathological phenomena occurring in the public space, which are minimized by institutions established to ensure it. These categories should constitute the research field (subject) of the security sciences. The research problem formulated in the form of the question: How are public security and public order treated in definitional and institutional terms? The problem was solved based on a critical analysis of the literature. The paper uses theoretical research methods, including analysis of literature and phenomena occurring in society and inference – as a cognitive factor of the subject of analysis. A critical analysis of the literature on this issue played a large role in the cognitive process.
Topic:: Security, Political Theory, Public Policy, and Social Order
Political Geography:: Global Focus

240. Protocooperation as a Model for the Russia-UAE Partnership

Author:: Andrzej Jacuch
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Polish Political Science Yearbook
Institution:: Polish Political Science Association (PPSA)
Abstract:: Russia’s intervention in Syria in 2015 marked the Russian Federation (RF) return as a key player in the Middle East and North Africa. In this context, the relations between Russia and the UAE are of utmost importance for both entities, for the region, and globally. This article seeks to fill a gap in scholarly knowledge by answering questions about the nature of the emerging cooperation between Russia and the UAE. How Russia seeks to use the UAE to expand its sphere of influence in the MENA region and how the UAE uses this cooperation to achieve its foreign policy goals. The article applies protocooperation (an analogy to the ecological relationship) as a model for the Russia-UAE partnership. The RF is strengthening its position in the MENA regarding the UAE as a key partner for regaining its political, economic, and military influence in the MENA region. Russia-UAE’s partnership aims at achieving conjunctural geopolitical interests benefiting from diminished Western, mainly the US, presence in the region.
Topic:: Security, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Military Strategy, and Foreign Interference
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Gulf Nations, and UAE

241. Cybercrime on the Example of Selected Botnets

Author:: Przemysław Mazurczak
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Polish Political Science Yearbook
Institution:: Polish Political Science Association (PPSA)
Abstract:: The article presents threat analysis resulting from botnet activity on the Internet. Botnet networks are a very common tool among cybercriminals. They enable the acquisition of large amounts of data from computers infected with the virus that creates the given network entirely subordinated to its creator. Currently, many unidentified botnets are a threat to Internet users. Those identified and diagnosed answer the problem of how dangerous a botnet is in the hands of cybercriminals. The article presents statistics and analysis of selected botnets. Currently, there is a decline in the interest in botnets in cybercrime, although many new threats appear, suggesting that botnets will continue to be popular and are still a dangerous weapon in the hands of criminals.
Topic:: Security, Crime, Cybersecurity, Information Technology, and Digitalization
Political Geography:: Global Focus

242. Poland's Reason of State in the Creation of a New International Order. Foreign Policy as Poland's Reason of State in the 21st Century

Author:: Piotr Lewandowski
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Polish Political Science Yearbook
Institution:: Polish Political Science Association (PPSA)
Abstract:: The article analyzes the Polish reason of state in changing international order understood as the loss of hegemon position by the United States. The author defines the reason of state as an analytical operant and relates it to the security and sovereignty of a state in the international environment. The text also outlines possibilities of development of Poland's reason of state in the region and global geopolitics.
Topic:: Security, Development, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Europe and Poland

243. Military Security of Poland – From Theory to Practice

Author:: Grzegorz Sobolewski
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Polish Political Science Yearbook
Institution:: Polish Political Science Association (PPSA)
Abstract:: National and international security remains a fascinating area of scientific research. Studies of phenomena and processes in military security suggest that we are witnessing great and intense changes. In their analyses of the modern security environment, both NATO and the EU wish to accommodate the existing conditions. Poland also has been affected by that process. The security policy should be based on the main assumption that Poland is a sovereign security entity, able to define its national interests and strategic objectives autonomously. However, the foundations of our security are assured by membership in the EU and NATO, good relations in the region, a strategic alliance with the USA, and an internal defense mechanism. The needs of the state and the society for national security arise from a dynamic rate of changes in challenges and hazards. The Author intends to combine theory with practice that is implemented in favor of the military security of Poland. First of all, the essence of military security is presented from theoretical and utilitarian viewpoints. The subsequent parts of the paper present research results related to the identification of contemporary challenges and hazards to the military security of Poland. This approach provided an opportunity to outline assumptions of policy and strategy underlying military security in current international security conditions.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, NATO, International Cooperation, Military Strategy, and European Union
Political Geography:: Europe and Poland

244. The Forecast of the Number of Soldiers in the Saudi Arabian Army in Terms of Military Security

Author:: Bartosz Kozicki, Jaroslaw Zelkowski, Szymon Mitkow, and Mariusz Gointarczyk
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Polish Political Science Yearbook
Institution:: Polish Political Science Association (PPSA)
Abstract:: The study concerns forecasting the number of soldiers in the Saudi Arabian army based on information obtained from the website: https://data.worldbank.org (The World Bank, 9.03.2020). The research began with a comparative analysis of the number of soldiers in the armies of Saudi Arabia and Russia. The idea for a comparative analysis of the number of armies of Saudi Arabia and the Russian Federation arises from Russian policy in the region of the Middle East countries, including the impact on world oil prices. The comparative analysis showed the similarities and differences in the dynamics of changes in the number of both armies dynamically. Subsequently, the primary time series data analysis on the number of Saudi Arabian troops was performed. The study selected methods for predicting raw data: Holt’s exponential smoothing and Klein’s model for the future. The next stage of the research was forecasting and the analysis and evaluation of the obtained forecasts. Klein’s model was the best forecasting model. The forecast of the number of soldiers in the Saudi Arabian army for 2020 is 251454, and for 2021, it has increased to 251006. The study ends with a summary and conclusions.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Military Strategy, Military Affairs, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Middle East, Saudi Arabia, and Gulf Nations

245. Common Security and Defense Policy of the European Union Through the Prism of Polish Experiences and Security Interests

Author:: Teresa Usewicz and Kinga Torbicka
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Polish Political Science Yearbook
Institution:: Polish Political Science Association (PPSA)
Abstract:: In this paper, the authors attempt to prove that the Polish position on developing the EU’s Common Security and Defense Policy (CSDP) was skeptical, despite entries in political and strategic documents which emphasized its great significance for Polish security policy. It is evidenced by Poland’s low level of involvement in EU missions and operations and other undertakings in the CSDP area. The central hypothesis adopted at the beginning of the research is that Poland has always treated security and defense within the European Union as a kind of complement to the potential and capabilities developed within the framework of the North Atlantic Alliance, and the Polish involvement in CSDP has never been adequate to the provisions contained in political and strategic documents. Poland’s stance resulted, on the one hand, from the weakness of the CSDP’s political framework, which was shaped by numerous compromises among its member states, and on the other hand, from the political elite’s conviction that only NATO’s, and de facto the United States’, security guarantees are credible. In this paper, the authors analyze Poland’s previous experience resulting from polish participation in the policy in question and the evolution of Poland’s position toward its development in the context of the Republic of Poland’s security interests formulated in political and strategic documents.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, International Cooperation, Military Strategy, European Union, and Collective Defense
Political Geography:: Europe and Poland

246. Joe Biden’s Strategy in the Asia-Pacific Region: Change or Continuity. A Comparative Analysis

Author:: Marcin Grabowski
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Polish Political Science Yearbook
Institution:: Polish Political Science Association (PPSA)
Abstract:: The election of Joseph Biden for the office of the President of the United States has brought expectations of fundamental change in American foreign policy, including policy toward the Asia-Pacific/Indo-Pacific region. As observed in the last few months, the reality has been more complex as definite changes in the US Indo-Pacific policy are not as visible as expected. It is especially in respect of the US policy toward China being more a continuation than a change from Donald Trump’s approach. Changes are rhetorical rather than actual policies. The situation is different in the case of alliances, as Joe Biden offers much more commitment to allies like Japan or South Korea. Also, multilateral dimensions (both regional and global) witness some – however still limited – change. The main goal is to make a comparative analysis of Joe Biden’s policy toward Asia, referring to the administrations of Barack Obama and Donald Trump. Hence the strategies of pivot/re-balance toward the Asia of Obama, and the free and open Indo-Pacific strategy of Trump, will be examined. The analysis refers to the complex interdependence theory and the power transition theory. Methodologically, it is based on document analysis with comparative analysis.
Topic:: Security, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Conflict, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: North America, Asia-Pacific, and United States of America

247. Fake News and the Europeanization of Cyberspace

Author:: Krzysztof Wasilewski
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Polish Political Science Yearbook
Institution:: Polish Political Science Association (PPSA)
Abstract:: As both the European Union and its member states acknowledge that the proliferation of fake news threatens their political stability and – consequently – the general idea of European integration – they have undertaken many steps to confront that problem. Them, the article examines how EU institutions, together with the member states, have tackled the spread of disinformation within the common policy of cybersecurity. The novelty of this study is that it does so concerning the ongoing process of Europeanization of cyberspace, combining the field of information technology with European studies.
Topic:: Security, International Cooperation, European Union, Cybersecurity, and Media
Political Geography:: Europe

248. Cultural Security in Shaping the Generation of Civilizational Advancement Within the Universalization of Cultural Transformations. Based on Research Conducted in Samoa

Author:: Mirosława Jaworowska
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Polish Political Science Yearbook
Institution:: Polish Political Science Association (PPSA)
Abstract:: The Author has demonstrated that Samoan youth is not indifferent to cultural universals, despite attempting to co-create them in the course of a multi-cultural dialogue and globalization processes. The study was founded on research results conducted through local observations and a questionnaire distributed among students of the Faculty of Education at the National University of Samoa in Apia. The research aimed to learn about the opinions, aspirations, attitudes, and value systems of Samoan students as they represent the educated elite of the 21st-century generation. The interviewed approve of contemporary civilizational novelties, as long as those do not harm the traditional culture. The socialization process in the Samoan youth has been occurring on a borderland between upbringing, traditional family-tribal, and the modern state-citizen education in schools and social life. Family and traditional customs are still vivid despite being more open to contemporary civilization and state developments. Although cautious towards novelties that might threaten the Samoan culture, these attitudes may be assessed as a reformatory. Based on the results obtained in Samoa, it is justifiable to state that the process of cultural transformation universalization has been occurring there in many areas of reality.
Topic:: Security, Development, Culture, and Civilization
Political Geography:: Asia-Pacific and Samoa

249. Multilateralism and the Superpower

Author:: Jeremy Greenstock
Publication Date:: 02-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: American Diplomacy
Institution:: American Diplomacy
Abstract:: Editor’s note: The author served as UK Ambassador to the UN 1998-2003. The UN, with its network of institutions and agencies, is the only truly global organisation. It is a great experiment, not in global governance, because the political direction of the UN lies firmly in the hands of sovereign nations, but in providing both norms and tools for managing the international arena 1. Its system is flawed and may well be unimprovable. But what it tries to do, and does, is indispensable for the avoidance of catastrophic war and for the development of a sustainable world. The UN as an institution is also, not unlike the American Constitution, an adversary of raw power. Born in an era of war and empire, its charter and principles provide shelter and help for weaker nations, and set limitations on the capacity of the strongest countries to throw their weight around selfishly—the generator of empires and wars. It came into being at the instigation of the great powers, and so they know —or they used to know—what they were creating and why. The United States was at the centre of it, seeing it as a great step towards the ending of the era of imperialism. The UN is not just about what happens in the Security Council. The work of the Secretariat, the funds, agencies and programmes, and indeed of several of the intergovernmental institutions such as ECOSOC, is primarily dedicated to every aspect of international development. They act on the premise that if a large part of the world is racked by poverty and disease, the more fortunate part will not have a stable environment in which to enjoy their relative success. The history of regional conflict over the last 75 years bears this out. As the UK’s Permanent Representative between 1998 and 2003, with a permanent place on the Security Council, I made a point of setting my inevitable focus on the Council’s work in the context of this wider UN purpose. The maintenance of international peace and security is an essential component of sustainable development, not just an end in itself.
Topic:: Security, United Nations, Governance, Sustainable Development Goals, Multilateralism, and Peace
Political Geography:: Global Focus and United States of America

250. The Security Challenges of European Demographics and Politics Caused by the Modern Migration Crisis

Author:: Emilia Alaverdov
Publication Date:: 06-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:: Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:: The paper aims to analyze the ongoing situation in the European Union member countries caused by modern migration flows. It shows the real impact of refugees and migrants on European demography. It describes the future scenarios of global demographic and social challenges, which lead to the socio-economic and political crisis, and the failure of European political elites. The study mainly is based on the following research methods: descriptive, statistical, and analysis. The basis of the source represents the books, scientific articles, empirical and press materials, documents published on official websites in the field of migration policy. The essence of the modern migration in Europe became very acute since the current migrants are mostly followers of Islam, which in all its aspects and completeness is currently one of the most urgent topics, and draws the special attention of political circles and international clubs. Muslims in Europe are, first, immigrants whose influx into the European continent has seriously changed its demographic picture and political situation. In this regard, it should be said that the growing number of Muslims in Europe is causing certain demographic challenges that significantly affect the European socio-cultural situation, and lead to the financial and political crisis.
Topic:: Security, Demographics, Migration, Borders, and Identity
Political Geography:: Europe

251. Rethinking the Regional Security Complex Theory: A South American view between 2008-2016

Author:: Tamires Aparecida Ferreira Souza
Publication Date:: 06-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal on International Security Studies (RESI)
Institution:: International Security Studies Group (GESI) at the University of Granada
Abstract:: With this article, we propose to reformulate the Regional Security Complex Theory, by Buzan and Waever, through a South American vision, with the time frame 2008-2016. To this end, we will analyse South America through Argentina, Brazil, and Colombia, and their forms of intra and extra-regional interaction, highlighting the Colombia-United States relations, and the South American Defence Council, of the Union of South American Nations. This article is divided into a first section marked by an understanding of the Regional Complex Theory, in which we present and discuss its theoretical elements and weaknesses, and propose theoretical changes that will guide our analysis. The second section contains information about the South American Complex in the academic view, focusing on the arguments of Buzan and Waever. In the third section, we present the South American Regional Security Complex restructured, as well as the analysis of its dynamics. The central argument of the article is the need to reformulate the Theory in question for a better understanding of the complexities and unique characteristics of South America.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:: Brazil, Argentina, Colombia, and South America

252. Research Perspectives and Boundaries of Thought: Security, Peace, Conflict, and the Anthropocene

Author:: Judith Nora Hardt
Publication Date:: 06-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal on International Security Studies (RESI)
Institution:: International Security Studies Group (GESI) at the University of Granada
Abstract:: The geological era of the Anthropocene is expected to trigger a paradigm shift across the natural and social sciences. Within International Relations(IR), the arrival of the planetary has generated various debates that range from questioning the very future of the discipline to proposals for how to fix IR. This article takes stock of different research perspectives from three disciplines, namely IR, Earth System Sciences and New Materialism/Posthumanism. With reference to these different perspectives, it examines the ways in which peace, conflict and security are related to the Anthropocene. This panoramic overview reveals also certain demarcations between the research approaches, disciplines and study fields, and aims to trigger future research on overcoming these boundaries of thought and push the research on Anthropocene thinking further.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, Conflict, Peace, and Anthropocene
Political Geography:: Global Focus

253. An Introduction to ‘Peace, Conflicts and Security in the Anthropocene: Ruptures and Limits’

Author:: Ignasi Torrent
Publication Date:: 06-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal on International Security Studies (RESI)
Institution:: International Security Studies Group (GESI) at the University of Granada
Abstract:: Throughout the last two decades, numerous disciplines across the natural and social sciences have witnessed the increasing influence of an emerging set of contemporary theoretical trends that delve into the entanglements between the human and its material milieu (see Haraway, 2016; Latour, 2005).Beyond rigid attributed labels, including new materialisms,Actor-Network theory, speculative realisms and object-orientedontology, amongst others, the genealogy of these theoretical movements arguably traces back to the confluence of two mutually reinforcing processes. On the one hand, the current unprecedented techno-scientific progress in areas such as Earth System Sciences and Science and Technology Studies has led to compelling narratives on unsettling events, including the potential effects of global warming as well as the uncertain future implications of developments in fields as, for instance, Artificial Intelligence. As a result of these challenges and speculations, the hypothetical finitude of the human being on the planet, far from abstract apocalyptic discourses, has become a strikingly perceptible experience. In other words, the stories about the distinctive, superior and masterful character of the human on Earth increasingly seem to fade, and its future seems unquestionably inextricable from broader beyond-the-human phenomena(see Tsing, 2015).The present age in which the human has compromised its own existence, or at least its position of dominance, to anthropogenic processes that surpass the sphere of human control has been defined by many scholars as the Anthropocene (see Crutzen &Stoermer, 2000).On the other hand, the tenets of this growing theoretical rubric claim the exhaustion and incapacity of the post-positivist paradigm, arguably the dominant register within critical theory over the last forty years, as unable to provide analytical tools that enhance the comprehensive understanding of the repositioning of the human in the Anthropocene era(see Bryant, Srnicek &Harman, 2011).To be precise, the limits of textual, discursive and semiotic methodological techniques are exposed as insufficient to capture and examine how Anthropocenic processes of transformation are reconfiguring the role of the human on the planet, let alone the relations with its environment.
Topic:: Security, Conflict, Peace, and Anthropocene
Political Geography:: Global Focus

254. Indo-Iran Relations in the Changing Regional Environment Implications for South Asia

Author:: Shehzada Afzal and Nazir Hussain
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: South Asian Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: International relations are determined by systemic and structural factors at the global, regional and state/domestic levels. Inter-state relations require common interests, shared goals, inter-related threat perception and eminent security challenges. Indo-Iranian relations have been on a progressive trajectory since the beginning of current century; their relations are focussed on political, economic, security and strategic spheres. As an emerging major power, India intends to enhance its influence across regions. This paper attempts to examine how Indo-Iranian relations have shaped up over the years. How convergence of interests by these two far-off neighbors have developed to join and cooperate in economic, political and social domains. For Pakistan, any development on its eastern and western borders holds important bearing on its national security; therefore, what new challenges are posed by Indo-Iranian relations in the changing regional environment of South Asia.
Topic:: Security, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, Peace, and Regionalism
Political Geography:: Iran, South Asia, Indonesia, Middle East, and Asia

255. Afghanistan: The Possible Arena for Major Powers Inevitable Cooperation

Author:: Suman Naz and Zafar Nawaz Jaspal
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: South Asian Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: Afghanistan has been a center of a struggle between major powers since the 19th century. In 2001, the fight against terrorism had sparked a new power struggle among local, regional, and international Afghanistan actors. Various state and non-state players with conflicting perspectives and conflicting approaches are trying to pursue their strategic, political, and economic goals in Afghanistan. Due to similar security threats, complex economic interdependence, and economic liberalism, different scenarios may emerge in Afghanistan, leading to the potential collaboration of major global and regional powers in Afghanistan. This partnership can be expanded for several logics and reasons, among which security comes first. The peace treaty concluded between the United States and the Taliban on February 29, 2020. The continuing peace process via intra-Afghan peace talks with regional states has fortified hopes for peace in Afghanistan through cooperative measures among major regional and international powers.
Topic:: Security, International Cooperation, Terrorism, Military Strategy, and War on Terror
Political Geography:: Afghanistan and Middle East

256. Reflections of the Reproduced State Identity on Turkish Foreign Policy: Crises With the USA

Author:: Burak Ercoşkun
Publication Date:: 10-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Academic Inquiries
Institution:: Sakarya University (SAU)
Abstract:: Factors such as regional-international developments, political, economic, social conditions and security understanding separate the foreign policies of the states from each other and differentiate the expectations of the countries in mutual relations. Turkish-American relations, which have a history of nearly seventy years, have seen a fluctuating course with sometimes cooperation and sometimes crises. Therefore, identifying the root causes of crises that arise from different reasons and damage bilateral relations gains importance in terms of collaboration between the two countries. In this context, this study argues that the reproduction of Turkey’s state identity in the changing international system after the Cold War caused crises in bilateral relations by differentiating foreign policy visions, threat perceptions and international goals with the United States. Based on this, the four crises, in the bilateral relations between Turkey and the United States, starting with the Syrian Civil War and continuing to the present day, will be examined in the dimensions of perception, discourse and politics. Then, possible policies are discussed through risks and opportunities to eliminate the tense atmosphere in Turkey-US relations. In the study, in addition to the literature review, the content and discourse analysis method is used methodologically by making use of the statements of policy makers.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Alliance, and Political Crisis
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

257. US Exit from Afghanistan: Impacts on Pakistan and India

Author:: Muhammad Muzaffar, Zahid Yaseen, and Naila Afzal
Publication Date:: 12-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Political Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: The aim of this qualitative study is to explore the impacts, challenges, and opportunities for Pakistan and India if United States of America applies full exit policy in Afghanistan. USA invade Afghanistan after 9/11 incident, almost 20 years close to pass, and Barak Obama peace deal withdrawal from Afghanistan is shortly to apply till the 20th anniversary of the said incident. Whole world has fixed her attention on this issue that how would USA successfully exit from Afghanistan by applying adequate intra-Afghan peace deal having a number of interests in the region. Ramification of the study is that USA full exit from Afghanistan is nightmare and for peace process and development of the reign Pakistan and Afghanistan must be cooperate instead of playing in enemy’s hands. It is also recommended that Pakistan need to review foreign policy on sound basis for the preservation of her interests in Afghanistan.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Politics, Economy, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Pakistan, Afghanistan, South Asia, and United States of America

258. China’s Foreign Policy and Strategic Stability towards South Asia: An Analysis

Author:: Muhammad Muzaffar and Imran Khan
Publication Date:: 07-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: South Asian Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: This study analyzes the China‟s foreign policy towards South Asia with the phenomena of strategic stability. South Asia has emerged as progressively vibrant interest to China‟s foreign policy. Chinese administration has showed consent to continue its harmonized policies towards regional states like India and Pakistan. Following the realistic approach, it is quite possible that China may not prove helpful in resolving the chronic regional territorial disputes however; it will be cooperative in bringing peace and stability in this region along with economic boom. The outcome of discussion reflects that the imperatives of regional security added new dimensions such as China‟s peaceful rise under Xi Jinping and China‟s role of strategic balance between India and Pakistan. Due to diverse Chinese interests in this region, it is expected that Beijing will pay more attention towards South Asian affairs in future and will play a role of more responsible stakeholder.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Nuclear Weapons, Economy, and Strategic Stability
Political Geography:: China, South Asia, and Asia

259. War on Terrorism and its Impacts on Pakistan's Security

Author:: Huma Bilal, Azkaa Khan, and Mian Muhammad Azhar
Publication Date:: 07-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: South Asian Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: This article moves around the security of Pakistan and examined the incident of 9/11 and counter-terrorism strategies of civil-military during the war on terror. This study tells us that big attacks increase terrorism. After 9/11 some countries actively supported America in the war against terrorism and faced its negative consequences. Terrorism is a serious issue in the world. Many countries have taken serious actions against this evil. Pakistan faces many security challenges in the war against terrorism. This article is based on qualitative research techniques and secondary data. The massive lesson here is that the decision-making process should not be one-sided otherwise it leads to serious consequences. Pakistan experienced the worst issues in the portfolio of security. This requires a serious action plan on border security. Establish the writ of the state and secure the people from all internal and external threats. Resolve the conflicts between hostile factors peacefully without compromising on rule of law.
Topic:: Security, Terrorism, Taliban, Al Qaeda, and Rule of Law
Political Geography:: Pakistan and South Asia

260. South Asia Security and Kartar Pur Border: A Path to Peace OR?

Author:: Nabeila Akbar and Arshad Syed Karim
Publication Date:: 07-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: South Asian Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: South Asia has been a unique geographical region where all member states share commonality of interests in history, politics, economics and socio-cultural aspects due to close geographical proximity. Because of this uniqueness, South Asia is considered a single geographical unit where security issue has a cross border dimension. For Sikh community, Pakistan has opened the Kartar Pur border between India and Pakistan. It is a step forward to bring peace across the region. Though it has also raised many questions on the security of South Asia; would tension between Pakistan and India be diluted or escalated? Would it trigger peace or security threat across the region? What would be behavior of India and Sikh community in the new scenario? How a sovereign state can establish relations with a community group (religious community) of neighboring sovereign state by passing later? How it would affect the pattern of state relations at regional level as well as at international level? The research paper is mainly based on an attempt to answer these queries. The descriptive and analytical method is used along with the primary sources in the form of indepth interviews and focus group activities.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Territorial Disputes, and Borders
Political Geography:: Pakistan, South Asia, and India

261. Getting NATO Ready For The Rest Of The 21st Century: Is NATO 2030 The Right Roadmap?

Author:: Jamie Shea
Publication Date:: 09-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Institution:: Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Abstract:: Visiting Brussels in June, President Biden proclaimed that “America is back”. This also means that NATO is back, as Biden reconfirmed the United States’ solemn commitment to the defense of its European allies and Washington’s willingness to once again lead a transatlantic alliance that was much derided during the Trump years. At first sight, this is all good news for NATO; but could it turn out to be a mixed blessing for the Europeans in the longer run? This article analyses whether the NATO 2030 initiative is up to the task, and whether it provides the right answers.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, NATO, Regional Cooperation, and Military Strategy
Political Geography:: Europe and North America

262. NATO And Collective Defense in Space: Same Mission, New Domain

Author:: Aurel Sari and Hitoshi Nasu
Publication Date:: 09-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Institution:: Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Abstract:: The progressive militarization of outer space presents a range of policy and legal challenges for NATO due to its reliance on space assets for operational effectiveness and the increased vulnerabilities of these assets. Indeed, dependence on space-based assets and services in the conduct of military operations has become something of an Achilles heel for NATO as peer and near-peer competitors are honing their counter-space capabilities. Given the vulnerability of space-based assets and services to hostile interference, the question presents itself whether, and under what circumstances, the collective defense commitment, as set out in Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty (NAT), arises in space. NATO’s ability and resolve to counter threats in space could be challenged due to the uncertain parameters of the right of self-defense itself when exercised in space and the geographical limits that Article 6 of the NAT imposes on the operation of Article 5 of the NAT.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, NATO, Regional Cooperation, and Military Strategy
Political Geography:: Europe and North America

263. NATO's China Problem

Author:: Blake Herzinger
Publication Date:: 09-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Institution:: Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Abstract:: The North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s strategic minds are increasingly occupied with how to handle the People’s Republic of China’s rise as a maritime power in Asia, but this focus is misguided. China is already a maritime power in the North Atlantic, and its influence is rapidly growing. This influence does not represent a crisis for the Alliance but does require addition of China to the Alliance’s strategic considerations within its area of responsibility. Additionally, the Alliance must account for extraregional competition between the U.S. and the PRC which could draw in alliance commitments in the event of escalation between the two powers.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, NATO, Regional Cooperation, Military Strategy, Hegemony, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:: China, Europe, Asia, and North America

264. Ukraine Membership Revisited: The Case For NATO's Strategic Adaption

Author:: Iulia-sabina Joja
Publication Date:: 09-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Institution:: Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Abstract:: Ukraine’s NATO membership has moved over the last decade from unlikely to mission impossible. Thirteen years after the NATO Bucharest Summit promise that Georgia and Ukraine “will join” the Alliance and Russia’s subsequent invasion of Georgia, and seven years since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the political willingness of the 30 NATO member states remains insufficient to keep their 2008 promise. Russia’s violation of Ukrainian territorial integrity makes Kiev’s integration into NATO almost impossible. But the strategic rationale for Ukraine joining NATO remains as compelling as ever. Moreover, the arguments for a revised NATO strategy towards the Black Sea region are multiplying. The current Alliance’s Strategic Revision process should be the first step towards a revised NATO policy towards Ukraine.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, NATO, Regional Cooperation, and Military Strategy
Political Geography:: Europe, Ukraine, and North America

265. NATO And Its Changing Approach To Space

Author:: Victoria Samson
Publication Date:: 09-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Institution:: Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Abstract:: While space has been a part of NATO’s interests since the beginning of the Space Age, it is just within the past three years that we have seen an increase in NATO’s efforts to use space to meet its mission needs as an organization. This is due to an increased importance of space for national security globally and concurrent proliferation of counterspace capabilities. While NATO has started evolving its policy framework to meet these new needs, much work needs to be done to ensure that the Alliance has access to space capabilities when it needs them.
Topic:: Security, NATO, Regional Cooperation, Military Strategy, and Space
Political Geography:: Europe and North America

266. There is No Easy Solution To The Western Balkans' Disinformation Challenge

Author:: Daniel Sunter
Publication Date:: 09-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Institution:: Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Abstract:: The Western Balkan countries are currently among the most vulnerable to an intentional, Kremlin-supported campaign of disinformation within the European region. The vulnerability of the Western Balkans is exacerbated for several reasons: the countries are not completely integrated into European and EuroAtlantic structures; they harbor the legacy of ethnic and religious tensions from the conflicts of the 1990s; the region continues to experience dysfunctions within its information space; and it is plagued by the unresolved Kosovo issue. Tackling a problem of this magnitude demands a comprehensive approach by governments and media associations supported by the international community
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Conflict, Disinformation, and Intervention
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Balkans

267. Spotlight Turkey: A Pivotal Swing State in NATO

Author:: Tuba Eldem
Publication Date:: 09-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Institution:: Turkish Policy Quarterly (TPQ)
Abstract:: Turkey’s geostrategic location at the crossroads of Europe, the Middle East, and Asia, and its dual identity as both a European and Asian state is unique in the world. The country safeguards strategic waterways and offers NATO critical staging bases and logistical support to extend its reach in the Middle East. With its dual identity, multiaxial foreign policy and hybrid political regime, Turkey also emerges as a pivotal swing state in shaping the contours of a stronger Transatlantic Alliance in the emerging new global world order marked by growing power competition between Western liberal democracies and Eastern autocratic regimes.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, NATO, Regional Cooperation, and Military Strategy
Political Geography:: Europe, Turkey, Asia, and North America

268. Securitising Covid-19? The Politics of Global Health and the Limits of the Copenhagen School

Author:: Daniel Elder Duarte and Marcelo Mello Valenca
Publication Date:: 08-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Contexto Internacional
Institution:: Institute of International Relations, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro
Abstract:: The COVID-19 pandemic has sparked controversies over health security strategies adopted in different countries. The urge to curb the spread of the virus has supported policies to restrict mobility and to build up state surveillance, which might induce authoritarian forms of government. In this context, the Copenhagen School has offered an analytical repertoire that informs many analyses in the fields of critical security studies and global health. Accordingly, the securitisation of COVID-19 might be necessary to deal with the crisis, but it risks unfolding discriminatory practices and undemocratic regimes, with potentially enduring effects. In this article, we look into controversies over pandemic-control strategies to discuss the political and analytical limitations of securitisation theory. On the one hand, we demonstrate that the focus on moments of rupture and exception conceals security practices that unfold in ongoing institutional disputes and over the construction of legitimate knowledge about public health. On the other hand, we point out that securitisation theory hinders a genealogy of modern apparatuses of control and neglects violent forms of government which are manifested not in major disruptive acts, but in the everyday dynamics of unequal societies. We conclude by suggesting that an analysis of the bureaucratic disputes and scientific controversies that constitute health security knowledges and practices enables critical approaches to engage with the multiple – and, at times, mundane – processes in which (in)security is produced, circulated, and contested.
Topic:: Security, Health, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Global Focus

269. Agenda OTAN 2030 y Concepto Estratégico 2022

Author:: Carmen Romero
Publication Date:: 11-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal on International Security Studies (RESI)
Institution:: International Security Studies Group (GESI) at the University of Granada
Abstract:: El momento crítico que atraviesa la seguridad europea tras la agresión de Rusia contra Ucrania ha alterado el entorno estratégico y obliga a la Alianza Atlántica a repensar su posición. Sunuevo concepto estratégico a aprobar en 2022 está marcado por este hecho histórico. Si bien, esta nueva estrategia está guiada a su vez por la Agenda OTAN 2030, adoptada en 2019, que establece una serie de principios como guía: unidad, defensa colectiva, resiliencia, salvaguarda de las infraestructuras y superioridad tecnológica. Así, este ensayo estratégico quiere reflexionar sobre este proceso para que la Alianza y la OTAN sean claves en la defensa del orden de seguridad internacional. Con este fin,analiza las claves de dicho entorno y cómo la organización pretende responder a esos desafíos, lo que tiene evidentes y potenciales implicaciones para España.
Topic:: Security, NATO, Alliance, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Europe and Spain

270. Política europea de seguridad y defensa y sus efectos en la industria de defensa

Author:: Dalia González Delgado
Publication Date:: 11-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal on International Security Studies (RESI)
Institution:: International Security Studies Group (GESI) at the University of Granada
Abstract:: La Defensa no ha sido prioritaria paralas políticas comunitarias, aunqueen los últimos años se hatomado conciencia de la necesidad de impulsarla, con una atención especial al desarrollo industrial. En 2013 se produce un hito significativo cuando el Consejo decide debatir,de forma monográfica,el futuro de la seguridad y defensa. Hasta entonces el Consejo primaba las ópticas nacionales y la Comisión actuabahacia la industria,fundamentalmente como regulador para extenderlas reglas de mercado único alámbitode defensa.La crisis de Libia de 2011 mostróla necesidad de disponer de autonomía estratégica. La crisis se produce en un momento de caída generalizada de los presupuestos de defensa que dificultabaabordar grandes programas de forma individual por las naciones. Cobra valor la necesidad de disponer de una base industrial competitiva que respalde las operaciones autónomassin dependencias externas.Eneste marco se promulga la Estrategia Global de2016,de la que derivan la aplicación a defensa de la iniciativa PESCOy el Plan Europeo de Defensa, en el que se incluye un fondo dirigidoa incentivar la cooperación industrial.La dotación del fondo entre2021 –2026 se ha rebajado, pero se ha mantenido a pesar de las presiones por reducirlo a niveles mínimos o incluso suprimirlo.Las iniciativas de los últimos años para propiciar la cooperación en defensa, con especial atención al componente industrial, están en marcha y será difícil volver atrás,aunque los europeos estén inmersos en el dilema entre proteccionismo y cooperación, y en el debate sobre el papel de la Unión en el escenario global.La crisis COVID 19 ha desviado la atenciónhacia otras políticas, pero no ha relegado la actuación en defensa. El futuro presenta un escenario de mayor inestabilidad, y mayor competencia entre grandes potencias en el que Europa no presenta una voz única. En esas condiciones se enfrenta a la necesidad de decidir entre disponer de capacidades adecuadas a sus objetivos políticos o mantener los modelos actuales.Si el objetivo es contar con autonomía suficiente para abordar acciones independientes, el desarrollo de una política industrial de defensa resultará un elementobásico y estará condicionado por las visiones de los estados, el esfuerzo presupuestario, y lacoordinación entre oferta ydemanda.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, European Union, Autonomy, Industry, and Defense Industry
Political Geography:: Europe

271. The Cyberthreat in the Contemporary Era: Challenges for the security of Pakistan

Author:: Muhammad Rizwan
Publication Date:: 12-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Rest: Journal of Politics and Development
Institution:: Centre for Strategic Research and Analysis (CESRAN)
Abstract:: Advancement in the field of information and communication technology (ICT) has transformed the world. In the contemporary era, digital technologies are playing an important role in performing daily life operations. This advancement and dependence on ICT also brought with it various types of vulnerabilities. Nowadays, institutions and individuals can be easily targeted by using cyberspace. Dependence on digital infrastructure is also increasing at a very rapid pace in Pakistan. Cyber networks are not only used by common people, but critical institutes like online banking, electric grids, and dams are also connected to digital networks. In the same way, military infrastructures like command and control systems and nuclear power plants are also linked to cyber networks. Due to this reliance on digital technologies, Pakistan is facing a constant threat of major cyber-attacks. So far, Pakistan does not have a proper mechanism to deal with the threat of cyber- attacks. This study analyses the impacts of the possible cyber-attack on the security of Pakistan.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Military Strategy, Cybersecurity, and Political stability
Political Geography:: Pakistan and Middle East

272. The U.S. Needs to Up Its Economic Game in Southeast Asia

Author:: Curtis Chin and Jose B. Collazo
Publication Date:: 11-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Ambassadors Review
Institution:: Council of American Ambassadors
Abstract:: It is important that disengagement from Afghanistan does not now foreshadow a lack of commitment to any nation in the Indo-Pacific that might be deemed by the U.S. President as not being of “vital national interest” to the U.S. With a focus on economic and trade engagement, China may well view nations differently than if it had a mindset shaped purely by military interests. Southeast Asia is at the dynamic heart of the Indo-Pacific. To America, we say, “Go Southeast, my friends.” The United States needs to up economic involvement in the region to make a sustainable and lasting presence in Southeast Asia. Then, President Biden and our U.S. Congress can say “we’re back” and “here to stay” with an all-in approach to Southeast Asia.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Military Strategy, Conflict, and Rivalry
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, Southeast Asia, and United States of America

273. Seizing a Historic Opportunity: the U.S.-DRC Privileged Partnership for Peace and Prosperity

Author:: Michael A. Hammer
Publication Date:: 11-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Ambassadors Review
Institution:: Council of American Ambassadors
Abstract:: The Congolese people have endured a tragic history, first at the hands of a colonial power and, since gaining independence, from its own homegrown rulers. A country with ample supplies of strategic minerals and natural resources has become dependent on considerable international humanitarian assistance and peacekeeping support to avoid a further calamity. Yet out of an imperfect electoral transition in 2019, the Democratic Republic of the Congo can break with the past and achieve substantial progress. Despite Congo’s unpredictability and legendary challenges, one constant has been clear throughout my time in Kinshasa: there is presently an opportunity for real change. One can envision how sustained good governance that channels resources toward development could rapidly transform this struggling nation. If President Tshisekedi can embody the vision he has ambitiously laid out, it is possible to achieve a rapid transformation of this struggling nation. But DRC cannot do it alone. Since the U.S. is a committed, reliable and long-term partner of the Congolese people and their government, it is incumbent on us to step up and make a difference. Still, given the enormity of the task at hand, U.S. interagency efforts in support of the DRC must be sustained over time even if there are setbacks and if progress is painfully slow. This is an investment well worth making!
Topic:: Security, Economics, International Cooperation, Military Strategy, Transition, and Prosperity
Political Geography:: Africa, North America, United States of America, and Democratic Republic of Congo

274. Mexico: Highest U.S. Priority in the Western Hemisphere

Author:: Earl Anthony Wayne
Publication Date:: 11-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Ambassadors Review
Institution:: Council of American Ambassadors
Abstract:: The most important bilateral relationship in Latin America for the United States is that with Mexico. Mexico is one of America’s top two trade partners and largest export markets. Economic ties support millions of jobs on both sides of the border. Mexico is an indispensable partner in improving management of migration across the southern border. Cooperation with Mexico is essential to getting a better handle on the deadly flows of drugs into the U.S. from Mexico, as well as getting better control over the billions of dollars of drug sale profits and illicit arms headed to criminal groups in Mexico. Mexico-U.S. is the quintessential example of an “inter-mestic” relationship: many of the key issues are simultaneously international and domestic for both countries. The historic, family and cultural links between these two neighbors add to the complexity and politically sensitive challenges for both governments in their efforts to guide the relationship well. For Mexico and the United States, no other international relationship has more day-to-day impact on the daily lives of their citizens. Both U.S. President Joseph Biden and Mexico’s President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO) have much to lose if the bilateral relationship goes off the rails. Yet they have some significant differences in policy priorities and in their capacities to deliver effective cooperation. Biden came to office with a deep understanding of Mexico and the region, having worked on these issues as Vice President in the Barack Obama Administration. Lopez Obrador realizes the importance of economic ties with the U.S. for his country’s well-being but has long been hesitant to be too close to Mexico’s big northern neighbor on other issues, such as public security and ownership of energy resources and networks. The Biden Administration is trying to build trust for broader cooperation through high-level visits to forge new cooperation mechanisms, generous vaccine donations, and with patience where priorities differ. The two governments are working toward a presidential meeting, building cooperation and establishing working dialogues on migration, commerce, security, pandemic recovery and the environment.
Topic:: Security, Economics, Regional Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, and Immigration
Political Geography:: North America, Mexico, and United States of America

275. Banditry in Nigeria: Insights from Situational Action and Situational Crime Prevention Theories

Author:: Tope Shola Akinyetun
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Conflict Trends
Institution:: The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:: Insecurity in Nigeria is a recurring phenomenon that threatens the well-being of its citizens. The multipronged occurrence constitutes a bane to development and leads to the proliferation of crime. As a multifaceted quandary, insecurity assumes varying dimensions in different geopolitical zones. The South West is plagued by a surge in cybercrime, armed robbery, kidnapping, domestic crime, extrajudicial killings, herder-farmer conflicts, ritual killings, and banditry. The South East is a haven for ritual killings, commercial crime, secessionist agitation, kidnapping, herder-farmer clashes, attacks by unknown gunmen, and banditry. The South remains threatened by militancy, kidnapping, and environmental agitation. The North East has been subject to a humanitarian crisis lasting over a decade and caused by the Boko Haram insurgency and the Islamic State in West Africa Province. Meanwhile, the North West is enmeshed in illegal mining, ethnoreligious killings, and banditry. It is, therefore, an axiom that insecurity in Nigeria has assumed a disproportionate geopolitical stance and that it has claimed thousands of lives and extensive damage and loss of property.
Topic:: Security, Crime, and Law Enforcement
Political Geography:: Africa and Nigeria

276. Conflict Dynamics in Mozambique’s Cabo Delgado Province

Author:: Theo Neethling
Publication Date:: 12-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Conflict Trends
Institution:: The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:: The ongoing militant insurgency and conflict in the upper north-eastern Cabo Delgado province in Mozambique has been brewing since 2017. However, it only gained the attention of the international community in mid-August 2020 when the Islamist extremist movement, Al Sunnah wa Jama’ah (or Ansar al-Sunna), captured the port town of Mocimboa da Praia in the north-eastern part of the country. This was not the first capturing of the town, as the insurgents – many of whom reportedly are originally from Mocimboa da Praia – earlier also briefly took control of the town in March 2020. At the same time, the town of Quissanga, approximately 180 km further south, then became the most targeted area in 2020, although the insurgents focused attacks on several other towns and districts. The insurgents further specifically targeted military and police forces, while the population in Cabo Delgado experienced horrific brutality in the form of killings, including beheadings, and other forms of violence that led to internal displacements and food shortages in the affected areas.[1] What followed were harsh security responses from the Forças Armadas de Defesa de Moçambique (Mozambican Defence and Security Forces) (FDS),[2] similar to indiscriminate responses elsewhere in conflict zones in Somalia, the Lake Chad Basin, the Sahel, and the Maghreb. The escalating attacks and heavy-handed responses have only heightened distrust among local residents and are alleged to have enhanced recruitment by the insurgents.[3] Currently, Cabo Delgado province is caught up in a security challenge with national, regional and international implications. The situation not only endangers the lives of tens of thousands of Mozambicans, but is also destabilising the upper north-eastern parts of Mozambique and certainly poses a threat to foreign direct investment pertaining to large-scale infrastructure, mining, exploration (especially natural gas), and other projects in Mozambique and the region.[4]
Topic:: Security, Insurgency, Governance, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Africa and Mozambique

277. Ignoring the Roots of Mozambique’s War in a Push for Military Victory

Author:: ACCORD
Publication Date:: 08-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Conflict Trends
Institution:: The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:: Nearly 2 900 people were killed[1] and most of the population displaced[2] by early June 2021 in a civil war that began in October 2017 in Cabo Delgado, Mozambique’s north-eastern province. From a single initial attack involving 30 men, insurgents now control most of four districts and parts of three others in a block roughly 70 km wide and 200 km from north to south. The second-largest natural gas field in Africa is being developed in the far north-east of Mozambique, with more than US$20 billion in investment predicted. The French company Total is developing the project, but insurgents reached the gates of the development zone in December 2020, and Total pulled out its staff and halted work on 1 January 2021. The Total Chief Executive Officer (CEO) told President Filipe Nyusi personally that Total would only return if Mozambique could guarantee security in a 25 km cordon around the gas project on the Afungi Peninsula. On 22 March 2021, Nyusi staked his personal reputation and that of the nation on a promise of security. Total agreed to resume construction. Two days later, insurgents occupied Palma, which is within the security cordon. Total withdrew its staff again and, on 26 April 2021, declared ‘force majeure’[3] on its Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) project. The company stated that it would only return if Mozambique ended the war.
Topic:: Security, Conflict, Peace, Peacebuilding, and Military
Political Geography:: Africa and Mozambique

278. Implications of Emerging Technologies on Peace and Security in Africa

Author:: Velomahanina T. Razakamaharavo
Publication Date:: 08-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Conflict Trends
Institution:: The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:: Like other continents, Africa has embraced the so-called Fourth Industrial Revolution. Emerging technologies are defined as those that are radical or novel and may have disruptive effects in the sectors where they are deployed and in society.[1] For example, in Africa, drones have improved the way healthcare is provided in Rwanda as they are being used to deliver blood in remote areas, thus helping to ensure the security of the people. Some of these emerging technologies are being researched and tested. Others have already been deployed, including mixed reality merging the virtual and the real world, Augmented Reality (AR) and Virtual Reality (VR), 5G, Artificial Intelligence (AI), and Blockchain, among others. Currently, Africa is also engaged in technological Research and Development and deployment. Some countries on the continent already have thriving AI hubs, such as Nigeria and Ethiopia. Google has its own AI hub in Ghana, and the United Nations (UN) has an AI centre, the UN Global Pulse lab, in Kampala.
Topic:: Security, Science and Technology, and Peace
Political Geography:: Africa

279. The Crisis of Ethiopian Foreign Relations

Author:: ACCORD
Publication Date:: 08-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Conflict Trends
Institution:: The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:: Amid continued domestic upheaval, Ethiopia’s foreign relations are also in crisis. This is particularly true of relations with Ethiopia’s neighbouring countries. Ethiopia’s rapprochement with Eritrea, for which Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed received the Nobel Peace Prize, has morphed into a joint security pact that has now seen Eritrean troops occupy parts of northern Ethiopia for more than six months, in an attempt to defeat the Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), whose forces are now rebranded as the Tigray Defence Forces (TDF).[1] The war between Ethiopian and Eritrean allied forces and the TPLF/TDF has led to numerous atrocities, a humanitarian and development disaster, and brought the Tigray region to the brink of widespread famine.[2] Even after sustained military operations and despite the higher number of Ethiopian federal and Eritrean troops, the TPLF/TDF have not been defeated and, as was predicted, they still retain the capacity to mount guerrilla attacks.[3] There is little prospect that the war will be won outright by either side and, to date, the Ethiopian federal government’s commitment to withdraw Eritrean forces has yet to be fulfilled.[4] Recent, albeit unconfirmed, reports have suggested that Somali troops may also be involved in the war in Tigray, prompting Somali parliamentarians to demand an investigation into the location of their troops.[5]
Topic:: International Relations, Security, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:: Africa and Ethiopia

280. Counter Terrorist Trends and Analyses (CTTA) – Volume 12 Issue 03: COVID-19 and Terrorism

Author:: Raffaello Pantucci, Abdul Basit, Kyler Ong, Nur Aziemah Azman, V. Arianti, and Muh Taufiqurrohman
Publication Date:: 04-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Counter Terrorist Trends and Analysis
Institution:: Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:: The Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has redefined almost all spheres of modern life. While states around the world are redeploying their financial resources, energies and military capabilities to cope with the challenge of the coronavirus, terrorist groups across the ideological spectrum have positioned themselves to exploit the gaps created by these policy re-adjustments. Terrorist groups are milking people’s fears amid confusion and uncertainty to promote their extremist propagandas. The rearrangement of global imperatives will push counter-terrorism and extremism down the priority list of the international community. Anticipating these policy changes, existing counter-terrorism frameworks and alliances should be revisited to devise cost-effective and innovative strategies to ensure continuity of the fight against terrorist groups. With these considerations in mind, this special issue of the Counter Terrorist Trends and Analyses (CTTA) features four articles that identify and assess important security risks around COVID-19, given its far-reaching social, economic and geopolitical impact. In the first article, Raffaello Pantucci reasons that COVID-19 will have a deep-seated and prolonged impact across government activity, both in terms of the categorisation of risks, as well as the resources available to tackle other issues. Perceptions of risk around terrorist threats may shift, with states grappling with stark economic, social and political challenges. At the same time, security threats continue to evolve, and may even worsen. According to the author, some of the tools developed to deal with the pandemic can potentially be useful in tracking terrorist threats. However, resource constraints will require states, on a global scale, to think far more dynamically about how to adequately buffer much-needed security blankets both within and beyond their borders. In the second article, Abdul Basit outlines the opportunities and potential implications that COVID-19 has created for terrorist groups across the ideological divide. According to the author, terrorist groups have exploited the virus outbreak to spread racial hatred, doomsday and end-of-times narratives. Among jihadist groups, IS has taken a more totalitarian view of the coronavirus pandemic, while Al-Qaeda (AQ) and the Taliban have used it as a PR exercise to gain political legitimacy. Far-right groups in the West have spun it to promote native nationalism, border restoration and anti-immigration policies. Terrorist groups have increased their social media propaganda to radicalise and recruit vulnerable individuals. At the same time, these groups have urged their supporters to carry out lone-wolf attacks and use the coronavirus as a bioweapon. In the post-COVID-19 world, revisiting existing counter-terrorism frameworks to devise more adaptable and cost-effective strategies would be needed to continue the fight against terrorism. In the next article, V. Arianti and Muh Taufiqurrohman observe that the COVID-19 outbreak has had a varied impact on Indonesia’s security landscape. On the one hand, it has emboldened IS-affiliated Indonesian militant groups to step up calls for attacks, with the government seen as weakened amidst a worsening domestic health crisis. On the other, ongoing indoctrination and recruitment activities of militant groups have also faced disruptions. According to the authors, counter-terrorism strategies will need to be reoriented as circumstances evolve, particularly in dealing with the arrest of militants and the subsequent processes of their prosecution and incarceration. Finally, Kyler Ong and Nur Aziemah Azman examine the calls to action by far-right extremists and the Islamic State (IS), which reveals varying degrees of organisational coherence in the respective movements. According to the authors, such variations influence these two groups’ preferred techniques, tactics and procedures adopted in seeking to exploit the health crisis. For its part, IS has a more organised hierarchical structure, even if it has increasingly granted autonomy to its affiliates to plan and execute attacks. In comparison, the absence of a central authority, or command structure in the far-right, can lead to a fragmentation of interests. These factors invariably create uncertainties in how, when and where extremists of both ilk may seek to operationalise an attack.
Topic:: Security, Government, Health, Terrorism, Counter-terrorism, Al Qaeda, Islamic State, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: South Asia, Indonesia, Southeast Asia, and Global Focus

281. Counter Terrorist Trends and Analyses (CTTA) – Volume 12 Issue 02: Geopolitics and Jihadism in a Post-Soleimani Era

Author:: James M Dorsey, Raffaello Pantucci, Bilveer Singh, and Noor Huda Ismail
Publication Date:: 03-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Counter Terrorist Trends and Analysis
Institution:: Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:: The high-profile assassination of General Qassim Soleimani, the commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps’ Quds Force (QF), on January 3 in Baghdad marked the lowest point in US-Iran relations in recent times. It triggered a new spell of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East with far-reaching consequences for South and Southeast Asia. Soleimani’s killing has also coincided with the potential rejuvenation of the Islamic State (IS), and ongoing anti-government protests in Iraq, Iran and Lebanon. Soleimani’s killing was bound to have reverberations beyond the Middle East. Muslim-majority states in South and Southeast Asia, where both Saudi Arabia and Iran have engaged in sectarian proxy wars by funding and influencing the Sunni and Shia segments of the population. While states in both regions have condemned Soleimani’s killing, they have stayed largely neutral to avoid getting sucked into rising geopolitical tensions. Against this backdrop, the March issue of the Counter Terrorists Trends and Analyses (CTTA) features three articles that explore different dimensions of Soleimani’s death and their geopolitical implications. In the first article, James M. Dorsey argues that as US-Iran tensions have eased in recent months, Iranian hardliners, emboldened by a sweeping mandate earned in recent domestic elections, remain committed to a well-honed strategy of escalating asymmetric warfare. According to the author, this raises the prospects for a full-scale war, with the United States also still pursuing a maximum pressure campaign on Iran that has to date, yet to produce tangible results. In the second article, Raffaello Pantucci reasons that despite a general consensus that the US-Iran rupture will ease pressure on transnational jihadist groups in the Middle East theatre, it remains unclear how Soleimani’s killing will shape their future behaviour. On the one hand, Iran-backed Shia militias are likely to step up their operations, which will exacerbate sectarian fault-lines in the region and feed into IS’ self-portrayal as the saviours of Sunnis. Conversely, pragmatism continues to define interactions between Tehran and Sunni jihadist groups such as the Islamic State and Al Qaeda, who appear happy to cooperate to ensure broader strategic goals. Next, Bilveer Singh examines the implications of Soleimani’s assassination for South and Southeast Asia. regions where both Iran and Saudi Arabia enjoy ideological influence among the Muslim-majority states. Sunni Malaysia and Indonesia have reservations about Tehran, but domestic political pressures are likely to endear Iran to them more than the US. The impact in South Asia could be more varied, mostly affecting Afghanistan and Pakistan. Iran through its Shia militant proxies can undermine US interests in Afghanistan. The QF has also recruited significant Shia militias in Afghanistan and Pakistan respectively for operations in Syria. Moreover, Pakistan has to walk a tight rope given Iran has an inside track to its significant Shia population. Besides cross and intra-regional assessments of Soleimani’s assassination within the broader US-Iran fissures, the threat landscapes in Indonesia and West Africa, both long-time hotbeds for terrorist activity in their respective regions, are also examined in this issue. Firstly, Noor Huda Ismail takes a closer look at pro-IS terrorist networks in Indonesia, a country that is home to the world’s largest Muslim population. By examining the background, tactics and modus operandi of local terrorist groups, both online and offline, and comparing their legacy with those of previous militant Islamist movements, the author believes important learning lessons can be drawn to help mitigate future security threats. Finally, Atta Barkindo analyses the jihadist threat in the Sahel region, where a landscape conducive to terrorist activities provides the fertile ground for IS and Al-Qaeda to grow by linking up with local militant networks. The tactical sophistication exhibited in terrorist attacks by Sahelian jihadist groups, particularly in Nigeria and the Lake Chad region, testifies to a growing footprint of global jihadism. Sahel provides an arterial life-line through the region, by facilitating the movement of goods and people between the Mediterranean and West Africa, which has been enormously beneficial to terrorist groups involved in organised criminal enterprises. Moreover, desertification and environmental degradation have also created a conducive environment for criminal activities and terrorism.
Topic:: Security, Terrorism, Bilateral Relations, Counter-terrorism, Al Qaeda, Islamic State, and Protests
Political Geography:: Iraq, Iran, Middle East, Lebanon, Southeast Asia, and United States of America

282. Counter Terrorist Trends and Analyses (CTTA) – Volume 12 Issue 01: Annual Threat Assessment

Author:: Ong Keng Yong, Noorita Mohd Noor, Iftekharul Bashar, Muhammad Saiful Alam Shah Bin Sudiman, Nodirbek Soliev, Remy Mahzam, and Amalina Abdul Nasir
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Counter Terrorist Trends and Analysis
Institution:: Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:: The January issue provides an overview of terrorist and violent extremist threats in key countries and conflict zones in the Asia-Pacific throughout 2019. Regional specific threats and responses covering Southeast Asia, South Asia, Central Asia, China and the Middle East are assessed. In addition, themes such as the online narratives propagated by global threat groups and counter-ideological dimensions of terrorism and violent extremism are analysed. Globally, despite suffering severe territorial, leadership and organisational losses in 2019, Islamist terror groups Islamic State (IS) and Al Qaeda (AQ) continued to pose the most potent terrorist threat. Early in the year, IS’ territorial reign was ended by American-backed coalition forces, following which its networks became scattered and, in a bid to overcome its physical decimation, more decentralised across the globe. The death of IS’ “Caliph”, Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi, in October 2019, raised further questions about the group’s continued resiliency. Yet, IS has proved persistent and adaptive. The group’s violent ideology continues to bind its myriad followers across regions. In the aftermath of its territorial and leadership losses, IS’ terror attacks and online offensives have been sustained. The global security landscape was further complicated by the emergence of Right Wing Extremist groups as violent actors on the world stage in 2019. Mass political protests around the world further underscored growing dissatisfaction with the present status quo, amid perceptions that some states are unable to articulate masses’ aspirations and meet their demands. The threat of Islamist terrorism will persist into 2020, especially with escalating geo-political tensions in the Middle East. Overcoming the physical and ideological threat by global militant groups, including far-right extremist groups, will remain very much a work in progress in the year ahead.
Topic:: Security, Terrorism, Counter-terrorism, Al Qaeda, Islamic State, Protests, and Violence
Political Geography:: China, South Asia, Central Asia, Middle East, North Africa, and Southeast Asia

283. The Significance of Targeting Soleimani

Author:: Ophir Falk
Publication Date:: 05-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: American Diplomacy
Institution:: American Diplomacy
Abstract:: On January 3, 2020, American drone-launched missiles killed Major General Qassem Soleimani shortly after his landing at Baghdad International Airport in what may turn out to be the most significant targeted killing of the 21st century to date.[i] While it is too early to determine the long-term implications and effectiveness of this operation, there is no question that the US action showed it will hold Iran accountable for terrorist actions.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Qassem Soleimani, and Assassination
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, and United States of America

284. Cybersecurity: State Attack and Response Strategies

Author:: Josephine Wolff and Ta-Chun Su
Publication Date:: 07-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Fletcher Security Review
Institution:: The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:: . One of the questions that has always been very interesting to me is “Who do we hold responsible when something goes wrong with cybersecurity?” While that is a technical question—because often when something goes wrong, there is a technical component since you are dealing with a computer and the Internet—it also very much has to do with what our liability regimes say, what our policies say, what our social norms and expectations say about who we hold accountable and who is expected to pay for the damage. So for me, I think cybersecurity is about trying to understand what we mean when we talk about the "secure Internet,” what it looks like to have a secure Internet, and who we hold responsible for all the different components of how you get there. To whom do we say “It’s your job not to answer the phishing emails,” or “It’s your job to look for bug traffic on the network.” How do we piece together that entirely complicated ecosystem of different stakeholders, and how do we identify what their different roles and responsibilities should be? ...
Topic:: Security, Science and Technology, Cybersecurity, and Interview
Political Geography:: Global Focus

285. India's "Africa Adventure" in the Indian Ocean Commission

Author:: Jagannath P. Panda
Publication Date:: 07-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Fletcher Security Review
Institution:: The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:: On March 6, 2020, India secured the distinction of ob‐ server status to the Indian Ocean Commission (IOC), an association that consists of five Indian Ocean states—Mauritius, Seychelles, Madagascar, Comoros, and Réunion (France). New Delhi is now formally clubbed in the IOC along with the four other observer countries of China, Malta, the European Union, and the International Organisation of La Francophone (OIF). What does this mean for India’s power play in the Indo-Pacific? Fundamentally, inclusion in the IOC points to a more serious structural maritime engagement for India in the Western Indian Ocean region. The IOC is a key grouping working to foster cooperation on both traditional and non-traditional security matters of the Western Indian Ocean, which connects the Southeastern Coast of Africa with the mainstream Indian Ocean. In other words, this association opens the gateway for a more formal "continental connection" between India and the Eastern African coastal countries bordering the Indian Ocean. It not only enhances India’s stature as a rising maritime power in the Western Indian Ocean, but also exemplifies India’s security-based desire for institutionalized association with countries in the region. It promotes cooperation between India and the littoral countries on the Eastern African Coast in a number of key activities in the region: maritime-military aid and assistance, capacity building, joint military exercises, sea patrolling, logistics and intelligence assistantship, and naval training...
Topic:: Security, Geopolitics, and Maritime
Political Geography:: Africa, South Asia, India, and Indian Ocean

286. Crime in the Northern Triangle

Author:: Mark L Schneider
Publication Date:: 07-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Fletcher Security Review
Institution:: The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:: Violence and crime in the Northern Triangle Countries (NTC) of El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras continue to endanger citizen security in those countries, as well as in Mexico and in the United States. The extent, conditions, and policy responses are important in and of themselves, but also because this violence constitutes one of the significant factors driving migration toward the United States.
Topic:: Security, Crime, Human Rights, and Migration
Political Geography:: Central America, North America, Mexico, Honduras, Guatemala, and El Salvador

287. Secure Communities A Conversation with Carrie Conway

Author:: Alexandra Heffern
Publication Date:: 07-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Fletcher Security Review
Institution:: The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:: I have worked in development for almost twenty years, but when I declared my focus, I had not originally thought “I definitely want to do conflict-related programming and work in conflict zones.” Given my trajectory though, I organically started to do that. I received my undergraduate degree from the University of Vermont, and at that point the only way to study international development was through their Agricultural Economics program. After finishing school, my first real introduction to the field was when I started working with Oxfam in Boston. At first it was a very administrative position, but then I was lucky and had the opportunity to go overseas as the program officer in Cambodia, which is where I would say I began my career. At that point, I really wanted to work with an NGO — I had not even thought about working with USAID or a contractor — but in Cambodia I had the opportunity to work as a local American hire with USAID. After that I went to Clark University for graduate school, and after Clark I had a number of program management roles for USAID, all of which were in conflict zones. For example, I spent time working in Timor-Leste with Tetra Tech ARD, I spent time in Afghanistan, and I served as Chief of Party in Sudan for a conflict transition program. After being overseas I decided to return to the United States and began working with Chemonics, specifically supporting their Libya and Lebanon programs in the Office of Transition Initiatives...
Topic:: Security, Conflict, Interview, and USAID
Political Geography:: Global Focus and United States of America

288. Journal of Advanced Military Studies: Spring 2020

Author:: Donald M. Bishop, Valerie Jackson, Christopher Davis, Evan N. Polisar, Kerry K. Gershaneck, Troy E. Mitchell, James R. R. Van Eerden, Rosario M. Simonetti, Paolo Tripodi, David E. McCullin, Christopher Whyte, and Jeannie L. Johnson
Publication Date:: 03-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Advanced Military Studies
Institution:: Marine Corps University Press, National Defense University
Abstract:: In 2010, MCU Press published the first issue of this journal, formerly known as Marine Corps University Journal, to serve as the bridge between the military Services and the professional military educators, strategists, and historians within the greater Department of Defense community. During the ensuing years, the press and the journal have evolved to offer innovative and active content that continues to serve as a forum for interdisciplinary discussion of national security and international relations issues and how they impact the Department of Defense, the Department of the Navy, and the U.S. Marine Corps. Now, 10 years later, we see the need to evolve and offer a wider base for those conversations to take place. To celebrate this 10-year anniversary and to reflect the journal’s change in focus over time, the journal has been renamed the Journal of Advanced Military Studies (JAMS) to honor the constant innovation of our content, our authors, and the topics we present to our readers. JAMS will continue to offer readers thematic, biannual issues that encourage and continue the debates happening across Marine Corps University, the Services, and the Department of Defense. It is no coincidence then that this issue of JAMS focuses on innovation and the future of warfare. Each of the articles presented offers the readers a deep dive into a historical, current, or forward-looking perspective on innovation and the military Services. As with any discussion of the military and abstract concepts such as innovation, we must first set the parameters of our discussion. For many readers, the term innovation evokes thoughts of technology, shiny gadgets, and artificial intelligence. While innovation is not necessarily synonymous with technology, it is certainly a challenge to say what in fact it is—a thing, a concept, an action, the people involved, or all of the above. The experts may not agree on what innovation is, but they can agree that it requires change or transformation to be successful. Sun Tzu’s The Art of War compares the nature of warfare to that of water for “just as water retains no constant shape, so in warfare there are no constant conditions.” More contemporary agents of innovation include military theorists such as Earl H. Ellis, John R. Boyd, Michael D. Wyly, and John F. Schmitt. Lieutenant Colonel Earl Ellis’s work on Advanced Base Operations in Micronesia (Operation Plan 712) in 1921 clearly demonstrated his ability to forecast the future needs for amphibious warfare in the Pacific two decades prior to World War II. Though most readers will recognize former Air Force colonel John R. Boyd for his observe-orient-decide-act (OODA) decision-making loop, his more innovative work may well be seen in the energy maneuverability (E-M) theory, a mathematical study of fighter aviation. Then-major Wyly was tasked with reforming the Marine Corps concept of maneuver warfare in the wake of the Vietnam War. The work of Wyly, Boyd, and William S. Lind would serve as the foundation for Warfighting, Marine Corp Doctrinal Publication (MCDP) 1, that was later formally written by then-captain John Schmitt, along with several other doctrinal publications, including Ground Combat Operations, Campaigning, Command and Control, Planning, Expeditionary Operations, and a revision of Warfighting. The articles in this issue of JAMS continue the discussion fostered by these innovative pathfinders. Our introductory section from the Brute Krulak Center for Innovation and Creativity discusses the conception and creation of the center and some of its most innovative programs, including the award-winning Destination Unknown graphic novel and the center’s first essay contest, the U.S. Marine Corps Postmortem, and offers insight from Marine Corps leaders who consider both success and failure as critical measures for the strength of an organization. For example, Lieutenant General Loretta E. Reynolds contemplates how the Corps “must find a way to manage today’s risks while constantly readying ourselves for the emerging challenges of the future fight.”
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Military Strategy, Counterinsurgency, Culture, Armed Forces, Authoritarianism, Cybersecurity, Democracy, Geopolitics, History, Surveillance, Think Tanks, Propaganda, Innovation, Armed Conflict, and Game Theory
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Haiti, North America, United States of America, and Indo-Pacific

289. The New Institutionalism: A tool for analysing defence and security institutions

Author:: Valerijs Bodnieks
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:: War Studies University
Abstract:: The aim of this paper is to investigate new institutionalism, its trends and their application in the analysis of security and defence institutions. The research is based on an analysis of theoretical literature to explore a system of assumptions about new institutionalism. Different approaches have been examined, including historical, rational choice, and sociological approaches. Historical institutionalism can be applied to identify the usefulness of past decisions, policy choices, appropriate strategy choices, and specific acquisitions for future policymakers, whereas rational choice institutionalism allows us to determine the influence of security and defence institutions on actors and their choices, how actors use the institutional framework for their own benefit, and how actors’ choices influence the state policy. Finally, sociological institutionalism focuses on recognising actors’ cognitive scripts and the changes they undergo, as well as causes that influence and determine cognitive scripts. Defence institutions are based on a precise regulative and normative framework and cognitive scripts of the highest authorities. Therefore, the external framework and the particular political impact on the supranational level can cause changes on the national level. New institutionalism provides an important perspective on the specifics of security and defence policy, actors’ individual and collective goals, their strategies and interests as well as cognitive scripts.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Institutions, and Rational Choice
Political Geography:: Global Focus

290. Assessment of the effectiveness of the security features of personal wireless networks

Author:: Janusz Gierszewski and Michał Matuśkiewicz
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:: War Studies University
Abstract:: Wireless network communication standards have become very common due to the huge benefits of their application. The use of radio waves to create networks has reduced infrastructure costs and increased the mobility of devices. The advantages of wireless communication (WLAN) also pose a challenge to the security of transmitted data. However, the use of a wireless signal poses certain threats to network security. The aim of the study was to analyse problems related to the security of WLAN 802.11. and assess its resistance to various attack strategies. It was assumed that wireless networks have an insufficient level of security. The assumed assumption is verifiable due to the ability to monitor events in networks. In order to verify the hypothesis, a number of experiments have been carried out in laboratory conditions, concerning the currently used WLAN protections from the IEEE 802.11 family of standards. The electromagnetic waves used for communication are available to the public at a distance of a few / several dozen metres from the communicating devices. It is easy to monitor air traffic using a network card that operates in monitor mode. The communication itself cannot be secured in any way, so data encryption is one way of secure transmission. During the research, the applied security features were successfully broken with the help of publicly available tools. The obtained results are distinguished by a high level of objectivity and reliability in the assessment of applied wireless network security. It was shown that there are still imperfections in the security and it is possible to break the security measures. The consequences of attacks are very serious and lead to a breach of each of the attributes of secure information. Practice has shown that it is impossible to create a wireless network that is fully secure. The findings of the study should be used to develop methods to improve information security, as well as to raise users’ awareness of existing threats. Not all users of wireless networks are aware of how easy some of the commonly used security features are to break.
Topic:: Security, Cybersecurity, and Networks
Political Geography:: Global Focus

291. Testing the efficiency of laser technology to destroy the rogue drones

Author:: Mohamed Zied Chaari and Somaya Al-Maadeed
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:: War Studies University
Abstract:: A large body of research shows the increasing numbers of drones attacks despite RF jammer systems and other technologies. This incredible increase in drone attacks means that the existing solutions are not enough to stop it. The objective of the article is to present a study on the combination of a laser beam with an optical focusing system to create a new cannon to crush rogue drones. The experimental method relies on an innovative design incorporating a laser module and groups of optical lenses to focus the power in one point to carbonize any target. Specifically, it is the laser with an adjustable lens position from 477mm to 617mm to focus the laser beam on the desired distant object. We measured the necessary time to burnt acrylic plastic, wood, and hard carton from a distance of 55 metres. It was noticed that the laser efficiency is proportional to the laser power and time the cannon is turned on. Tests on the laser cannon revealed that laser burner technology can destroy illegal drones. However, it was found that the laser is affected by adverse weather conditions, such as fog, rain, and clouds. Apart from that, the frailty of this technique is connected with the stabilizing system requirements, energy, overheating, and the time needed to destroy an object. Regardless of the drawbacks of the technique, the laser is the only solution with high efficiency that can ruin or intercept autonomously programmed drones, as this cannot be achieved by the RF jammer or any other solutions. The procedure can be repeated with new changeables to achieve a postive result, specifically, the use CO2 laser tube with a high-efficiency chiller to increase the laser power.
Topic:: Security, Science and Technology, Weapons, Drones, and Laser Technology
Political Geography:: Global Focus

292. The Hellenic air – space violations by Turkish aircraft: A statistical assessment and a forecast

Author:: Vasileios Symeonidis and George Andrew Zombanakis
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:: War Studies University
Abstract:: This paper aims to assess the extent to which repeated attacks against sovereign Hellenic air space by Turkey along with the inevitably ensuing engagements between aircraft of the two sides follow a certain predetermined pattern of behaviour that can be detected based on a given statistical model, and if so, to what extent this pattern is predictable in terms of its intensity and the frequency of incidents. To this end, we use the Weibull statistical distribution as an appropriate tool for interpreting and quantifying the pattern of aggressive Turkish behaviour and calculating probabilities of occurrences. Based on this choice, we then proceed with a forecast of this behaviour in the near future. We provide specific mathematical formulae that can be readily used to calculate probabilities and forecast air space violations and engagements. Our models, based on historical data, assume that both Hellenic air space violations and engagement incidents will keep increasing but will inevitably reach a monthly maximum, constrained by the availability of property and human resources on the Turkish side. The conclusions drawn point to the fact that Turkey will at some point in the near future reach its capacity limits in terms of property and human resources used in such offensive exercises, and that there is very little that can be done to enhance the margins of such activities given the room provided by the Turkish economy, which seem to be prohibitive
Topic:: Security, Military Affairs, Airspace, and Military Exercises
Political Geography:: Turkey, Greece, and Mediterranean

293. Countering terrorism in the shadows: The role of private security and military companies

Author:: Iveta Hlouchova
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:: War Studies University
Abstract:: The article identifies the main features of the PSMCs’ involvement in counterterrorism operations and outlines what their future involvement might look like with its implications for international peace and security. The main methods used to gather data and to draw inferences are a content analysis of relevant primary and secondary sources, and a discourse analysis, used as a method of examining the prevailing discourse surrounding the activities of PSMCs, seeking to understand the level of transparency, accountability and attributability of these actors. So far, the PSMCs’ potential for counterterrorism has not been fully exploited. There are many challenges surrounding the existence and operations of PSMCs, mainly lack of transparency and accountability, the continuous significance of the plausible deniability and political expediency PSMCs provide to nation governments, and an insufficient and inadequate international regulatory and control framework with no sanction or enforcement mechanisms. Most recently, the tendency to re-legitimise PSMCs’ activities can be identified. There will most probably be an expansion of PSMCs’ activities in the near future, as climate change consolidates security as a commodity, not a right. Therefore, there is a renewed urgency for adequate and effective international regulatory and control mechanisms on their activities on the international level.
Topic:: Security, Privatization, Counter-terrorism, Regulation, and Proxy War
Political Geography:: Global Focus

294. Family as a fundamental social unit shaping security culture: Polish realities

Author:: Agnieszka Wioletta Filipek
Publication Date:: 09-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:: War Studies University
Abstract:: The overall goal of the paper is to address the phenomenon of security culture. The conducted research was focused on analysing the possibilities of influencing the shaping of security culture by looking at the role of family. The study is based on a review of theories and published research about security culture and family. The aim of the paper is to answer the following research questions: What is security culture, what elements make up its structure and what role does family play in shaping it? The research methods were based on the classical theoretical methods used in security sciences and included an analysis of literature and scientific articles with the use of synthesis, abstraction and generalisation. Security culture is a category that characterises every security entity. Its structure consists of both basic and detailed elements such as: values, norms, attitudes, actions, cooperation and activity, reasonable openness, wise trust and risk. Based on the literature research, it can be stated that the basic outline of security culture is shaped during childhood and school years. It is shaped mainly in the family and in educational institutions. The research shows that the high level and appropriate nature of security culture can have a positive impact on the security of subjects and their environment, while the unfavourable form of security culture will have the opposite effect. The conducted research reveals that the role of the family in shaping security culture among children is indisputable and very significant and it should not be overestimated.
Topic:: Security, Values, Family, Norms, and Attitudes
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe and Poland

295. The rules and organisation of air traffic at airstrips during military operations: Based on experience gained on missions in Chad and Afghanistan

Author:: Rafał Zajkowski
Publication Date:: 09-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:: War Studies University
Abstract:: The aim of the article is to present the characteristics of airstrips used by Polish and allied aircraft during military operations in Chad and Afghanistan. The main goal is to examine their organisation and the management of air traffic by Polish ATC staff as well as to answer the question: How did Polish controllers plan the air operation? Answers to this question were sought through empirical and theoretical research. The theoretical methods were a study of literature (analysis, synthesis, abstraction, generalisation, interpretation, analogy and comparison). The empirical method – “opinion poll” took the leading role, which used different techniques conducted in a tested environment to gather the data (interviews with experts and an ex post facto experiment). Consequently, the article looks at the method of planning and preparing air operations and the rules of air traffic organisation in the area of responsibility of Polish controllers. The selected issues discussed herein include the rules of airspace segmentation, the adopted air traffic control solutions and the landing zone infrastructure used. All in all, the experience discussed herein constitutes valuable information regarding air traffic security and may prove helpful in organising landing zones and preparing air personnel for future operations conducted by Polish and allied Military Contingents at home and abroad.
Topic:: Security, Military Affairs, and Air Force
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, Africa, South Asia, and Chad

296. Compulsory military service as a social integrator

Author:: Ronen Itsik
Publication Date:: 09-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:: War Studies University
Abstract:: Compulsory military service has become very rare over the last 30 years, in the western world. In the past, most countries considered military service as a socialisation platform, given the fact that most of the population was recruited and military units were a "meeting point" for different cultures – because of that the service then was functional as a social integrator. The current research studied changes in social attitude during compulsory military service in Israel, where the society is considered to be essentially divided around ethnical and national issues. This study is based on an analysis of the attitudes of 3200 internet questionnaire participants via social networks in Israel, followed by a U-test of the collected data. Half of the participants were high-school students (average age 17) and half of them discharged soldiers (average age 23). Analysis of the results reveals significant evidence: discharged soldiers tend to be more tolerant then high-school students with regard to other cultures and ethnic origins. A discharged IDF soldier is less afraid of security threats and considers budget prioritisation towards social welfare to be more important than security challenges. These findings show that compulsory military service can still be effective as a social integrator, even in the post-modern world where countries are dealing with migration issues and ethno-national tensions.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Army, Conscription, and Social Integration
Political Geography:: Israel and Global Focus

297. The future of energy security of states

Author:: Jarosław Gryz
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:: War Studies University
Abstract:: The work focuses on the controversy about technological progress and unlimited access to all kinds of energy acquisition, storage and distribution. It suggests a formula for energy acquisition and usage which embraces issues of peace and war, social conflicts, and stability determined by access to energy conditioned by the state of the climate of our planet. The question is how will an interdisciplinary combination of progress and future implementation of technologies influence energy security of states and social entities, their natural environment, up to 2030 and beyond? The methods used in the work rely on a non – linear approach to disruptive technologies combined with empirical verifiability of scientific progress in the field of energy acquisition and use. They are reinforced with drivers taken from development scenarios gained through technological development in quantum mechanics, molecular biology, and computational techniques. The result is a conceptual approach to energy acquisition and distribution for states, their communities and individuals regardless of whether the technologies are “civil” or “military” in their essence. The recalled disruptive technologies shape factors of social development and create conditions for human existence and the natural environment that influence the security of states and social entities. The development of automation and robotics, digital transformation, bio-technologies and cognitive science creates new energy security for states, social entities and the natural environment. Technologies for the generation, processing and distribution of energy create an almost unlimited perspective of reconfiguration of existing forms of life and their safety.
Topic:: Security, Energy Policy, Science and Technology, and State
Political Geography:: Global Focus

298. What Allies Want: Reconsidering Loyalty, Reliability, and Alliance Interdependence

Author:: Ian D. Henry
Publication Date:: 04-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: International Security
Institution:: Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:: Leaders often believe that states that demonstrate disloyalty toward an ally will acquire a reputation for disloyalty, and thus damage other alliances. But in some circumstances, excessive loyalty to one ally can damage—perhaps even destroy—other alliances. The First Taiwan Strait Crisis (1954–55) shows that alliance interdependence is governed not by a reputation for loyalty, but by assessments of allied reliability.
Topic:: Security, History, Partnerships, Alliance, and State
Political Geography:: Taiwan, Asia, North America, and United States of America

299. Counterterrorism and Preventive Repression: China’s Changing Strategy in Xinjiang

Author:: Sheena Chestnut Greitens, Myunghee Lee, and Emir Yazici
Publication Date:: 02-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: International Security
Institution:: Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:: In early 2017, the Chinese Communist Party changed its internal security strategy in Xinjiang, escalating collective detention, ideological re-education, and pressure on Uyghur diaspora networks. This strategy shift was likely catalyzed by changing perceptions of Uyghur involvement in transnational Islamic militancy in Southeast Asia and the Middle East, heightening perceived domestic vulnerability to terrorism.
Topic:: Security, Human Rights, Minorities, Counter-terrorism, and Repression
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and Xinjiang

300. Coronavirus and the Future of Globalization

Author:: Aamer Raza
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Review of Human Rights
Institution:: Society of Social Science Academics (SSSA)
Abstract:: Coronavirus Pandemic has generated a discussion regarding the future of globalization. This article places this new wave of pessimism regarding the future of globalization in the broader tension surrounding globalization that has existed in international relations discourse since the end of the Cold War. The article points out some of the previous challenges endured by globalization. It also points out that whereas at this point popular media and news commentary portray pessimism as the dominant feeling, the trend towards multilateralism and global cooperation is also discernable in other responses to the pandemic.
Topic:: Security, Globalization, Populism, Multilateralism, Coronavirus, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Global Focus

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