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641. Afghanistan: Before Time Runs Out

Author:
Owen Kirby
Publication Date:
08-2021
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Council on International Policy (CIP)
Abstract:
The withdrawal of remaining U.S. and NATO troops in Afghanistan is nearly complete. As they go, the country begins a new, uncertain chapter in a long uncertain history. With the U.S. and our allies having made significant investments and great sacrifices in an attempt to develop self-sustaining Afghan institutions – and the Taliban now rampaging through the countryside – this is the moment of truth for the country’s government and post-9/11 political order. Whether Afghanistan’s institutions, security forces, and civil society prove sufficiently resilient to meet current challenges is not solely a matter of local capacity and resolve (or wisdom of previous donor decisions). Nor is it a matter of free choice between competing political views, as Afghans are not going to the voting booth to decide the outcome. It is equally about the commitment of the U.S. and our allies to continue supporting the equality of Afghan women and minorities, rule of law, free speech, and basic human rights. These are not foreign impositions, as some might argue, but rather vital weapons, absent U.S. troops, in the Afghan people’s own struggle against extremism and political regression. For many, there is justifiable fatigue with America’s “forever war” and its costs; but the Taliban’s repressive rule and its consequences are not a specter of another lifetime. It has only been 20 years since Afghan girls were banned from going to school; women barred from the workforce and life outside the home; and summary justice, including stoning and decapitation, for transgressions against the Taliban’s medieval code meted out in the national stadium. It has only been 17 years since Afghans were first given the constitutional right to choose their leadership at the ballot box. Progress is recent, and the Taliban is determined to make it reversible.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Development, Military Strategy, Transition, and Foreign Interference
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

642. Israel-Palestine: Renaissance of a Two-State Solution

Author:
Jon Greenwald
Publication Date:
06-2021
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Council on International Policy (CIP)
Abstract:
Though my favorite baseball team in Kansas City was always weak, a local columnist used to write every spring that it would win the championship. I know something of hope’s unreliability as a basis for prediction. But I offer this: there will be a serious chance for a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian dispute within five years. An agreement for Jewish and Arab states to live side-by-side between the Mediterranean and the Jordan River seems increasingly improbable. Last month’s fighting between Israel and the Hamas movement that controls Gaza and simultaneous riots and brutalities between Jews and Arabs within Israel have created a near consensus that the Oslo Process to reach that objective is dead. Fair enough. Neither side has a leadership or constituency with commitment or capability to conclude that deal. The lack of interest Israel showed under Bibi Netanyahu will not change under a conflicted coalition government dominated by right-wing parties favoring more de facto annexation of Palestinian land. Nor are the Palestinians in better shape. Their bitterly divided movements are uninterested in a unified approach to their national problem. President Abbas is in the 17th year of a four-year term. His Fatah, riddled with corruption, has little legitimacy on the West Bank, while Hamas, its popularity renewed by fighting Israel, is less inclined than ever for diplomacy. Ever fewer Israelis and Palestinians believe two states are feasible, and their notions of a single state alternative differ wildly. No serious politician in Israel or Palestine, much less in Washington, will propose a comprehensive initiative this year or next. Nevertheless, a sea change is underway. Israel has long largely been spared terrorism thanks to the separation barrier and security cooperation afforded by the Palestinian Authority. Fighting with Hamas is only a periodic disturbance. The Palestinian issue featured in no recent election, and Israelis had begun to think they could ignore it, that because the Sunni Arab world wanted an anti-Iran front, they could escape regional isolation without cost to their occupation policy.
Topic:
Territorial Disputes, Conflict, Borders, and State Building
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

643. Amidst Disinformation and Geopolitical Rivalry, Bulgaria Returns to the Polls July 11th

Author:
Kjell Engelbrekt
Publication Date:
07-2021
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Council on International Policy (CIP)
Abstract:
In the opinion surveys leading up to the elections, the same three biggest parties as in April enjoy support somewhere between 16 and 23 percent each, with another three-four trailing far behind and one hovering just at the 4 percent threshold. Few observers believe that the outcome will differ much from that produced on April 4th, which distributed 240 parliamentary seats among six parties. Ostensibly, the main problem in current Bulgarian politics arises from the unnecessarily sharp disagreements and mutual recriminations among the leaderships of the three main parties competing for power, aggravated during electoral campaigns. When the results were in, each of the three parties decided to reject cooperation with the other two and thereby precluded the establishment of a government tolerated by the parliamentary majority. The two top contenders are Boyko Borisov’s center-right GERB party, which has ruled the country almost uninterruptedly since it garnered 40 per cent of the popular vote in mid-2009, and There Is Such a People (Ima takav narod or ITN), run by TV personality Slavi Trifonov. The electoral campaigns ahead of either poll have largely revolved around Trifonov’s sweeping accusations of corruption directed at Borisov and his party, with the ongoing pandemic and the country’s weak economic performance featuring as issues more in the periphery. The corruption charges were also directed at the third frontrunner, the Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP) with roots in the old communist elite. After Trifonov’s ITN party had reiterated that it would under no circumstances work with the BSP, two of the smaller parties with anti-corruption platforms similarly refused even initial consultations. From that point on the BSP was out of options as well. At a deeper level Bulgaria’s troubles stem from being a relatively small country with the lowest GDP per capita in the European Union (EU), frequently exposed to cross-pressures from Brussels, Moscow, Ankara, Washington DC and Berlin. This especially applies to the energy sector, where the country’s geographic location in the corner of southeastern Europe makes it a significant player. While the EU and NATO have repeatedly urged Sofia to align with collective approaches designed to reduce the continent’s reliance on individual providers, Russian energy corporations have skillfully utilized regional relationships and ties to Bulgaria’s political class to assertively negotiate terms that above all are favorable to Moscow. Germany, a sponsor of the Nord Stream I-II pipelines, has not been in a position to object.
Topic:
Corruption, Elections, Leadership, Disinformation, and Rivalry
Political Geography:
Europe and Bulgaria

644. Strengthening Regional Stability Through the Ulaanbaatar Dialogue

Author:
Bolor Zorigt
Publication Date:
07-2021
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Council on International Policy (CIP)
Abstract:
Mongolia strives to contribute toward strengthening global peace and stability through its active role in multilateral cooperation including the UN, Asia-Europe Meeting, Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe and ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations)-led mechanisms. Mongolia perceives itself as a part of the broader Asia-Pacific region. However, Northeast Asia has been prioritized in the past decade, with the goal of preserving balanced relations with its only two neighbours, China and Russia. Mongolia promotes engagement with countries with shared democratic values, such as the US, Japan and the Republic of Korea (ROK), while maintaining friendly relations with the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK). In 2013, Mongolia initiated a regional platform called the “Ulaanbaatar Dialogue on Northeast Asian Security” (UBD), which engages all the regional countries to find common ground and chart a joint way forward to attain peace and prosperity in the region and beyond. The ultimate goal is to make a tangible contribution toward fostering regional cooperation.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, Regionalism, and Strategic Stability
Political Geography:
Mongolia and Asia

645. Russia’s domestic politics have become part of the West’s Russia policy: The stakes are rising when Navalny returns to Russia

Author:
Jussi Lassila
Publication Date:
01-2021
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
Among the most signifcant events in Russia in 2020 were the Covid-19 pandemic, reactions to the protests in Belarus, and the poisoning of top opposition politician Aleksey Navalny. Te frst two were clearly events of international signifcance, but so was the medical treatment given to Navalny, frst in Omsk and then in Berlin, after he suffered from symptoms of poisoning dur- ing a flight from Tomsk in Siberia to Moscow in August. In December, a joint study by the investigative journalist groups Bellingcat and The Insider, along with CNN, Der Spiegel and Naval- ny’s FBK Foundation, showed that it was difficult to find more con- clusive evidence of the Kremlin’s involvement in the assassination attempt by a chemical weapons- related poisoning group under the FSB that had been following Na- valny for years. This kind of op- eration would hardly have been possible without the blessing of high-level intelligence. Te ques- tion of whether the FSB leader- ship was proactive in resolving the “Navalny problem” or whether the order came from the Kremlin is irrelevant. Te revealed pattern confrms the long-standing trend of the strengthened role of the se- curity services, especially the FSB, in Russian politics. It is consistent with Putin’s approach to political processes being increasingly seen as issues of national security. Navalny’s self-confidence and style in the revelation videos related to the investigation, receiving ap- proximately 45 million views in less than a month, underscore the extent to which the FSB failed. The target did not die or become paralyzed, but recovered relatively quickly and bounced back, playing for higher and more radical stakes than before. Navalny’s role and reputation as the Kremlin’s most prominent critic has been based on the political pressure on the Kremlin generated by expos- ing elite corruption. While the will- ingness of citizens to see Navalny as an alternative to Putin varies consid- erably – with the majority indifer- ent to politics as a whole – Navalny’s numerous revelations have created an alternative to Russia’s ofcial re- ality, the political potential of which the regime obviously fears.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Conflict, Regionalism, and Domestic Policy
Political Geography:
Russia and Europe

646. Myanmar’s Generals Recoup: The recurrence of military-defined “disciplined democracy”

Author:
Bart Gaens
Publication Date:
02-2021
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
Myanmar’s generals cited election fraud as the motive behind their coup. However, as the country’s transition during the past decade has been rooted in military-orchestrated “disciplined democracy”, the real drivers behind the coup are likely different.
Topic:
Authoritarianism, Elections, Democracy, Coup, and Military Government
Political Geography:
Asia, Burma, and Myanmar

647. Israel’s 2021 election: Another deadlock in a vote on identity, the role of religion, and Bibi

Author:
Timo R. Stewart
Publication Date:
03-2021
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
Israel’s two-year government crisis was not conclusively resolved in the 23 March election. Netanyahu has led the country to the right, but the prime minister remains a divisive figure also within the right. The stalemate might give Israeli Arab parties slightly greater heft than before.
Topic:
Elections, Political Parties, Partisanship, and Electoral Systems
Political Geography:
Middle East and Israel

648. EU-China Investment Agreement: the EU’s Balancing Act between Values and Economic Interests

Author:
Saila Turtiainen
Publication Date:
03-2021
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The ratification process for the EU’s new investment agreement with China is expected to be very difficult. Although the aim is to improve EU-China relations, the process of getting the agreement approved in the EU will end up causing further tensions with China as the EU tries to strike a balance between promoting its values and economic interests.
Topic:
International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, European Union, Conflict, and Economic Cooperation
Political Geography:
China, Europe, and Asia

649. President Niinistö’s two-track initiative: towards stronger Arctic dialogue and revitalization of the Helsinki Spirit?

Author:
Matti Pesu and Henri Vanhanen
Publication Date:
04-2021
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
In his recent op-ed, President Sauli Niinistö reintroduced the idea of an Arctic summit. The timing of the meeting could be favourable. As the 50th anniversary of the 1975 Helsinki Final Act is approaching, Niinistö also hoped for a revitalization of the “Spirit of Helsinki”. The aim is hampered by global tensions, however.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and International Cooperation
Political Geography:
Europe, Finland, and Arctic

650. The EU’s new trade strategy: Gearing up for competition over values

Author:
Okko-Pekka Salmimies and Saila Turtiainen
Publication Date:
05-2021
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The EU’s new trade strategy instrumentalizes trade policy more forcefully in order to promote EU values such as democracy and human rights. A value-based and more defensive trade policy can lead to conflicts spirals, especially with China. The EU also needs to be prepared for potential setbacks in developing the transatlantic relations.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance, Regional Cooperation, European Union, Regionalism, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:
Europe