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  • Publication Date: 11-2017
  • Content Type: Commentary and Analysis
  • Institution: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
  • Abstract: Iran appears to be trying to repeat its experience of establishing paramilitary militias, which started after the fall of Reza Shah Pahlavi’s regime in 1979. Yet, this time it is in neighboring countries. On Novem- ber 7 in Tehran, Commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), Major General Mohammad Ali Jafari, urged the visiting Pakistani Chief of Army Staff , General Qamar Javed Bajwa to establish a Pakistani version of the Iranian Basij militia to back the regular army. He even said Iran was ready to o er its experience to the neighboring Pakistan, and showed o his country’s experience in Syria and Iraq. He further claimed that their previous experiences succeeded in achieving their goals. However, his assertion is not consistent with the realities on the ground, because Iranian-led militias have exacerbated regional crises and blocked efforts to reach settlements.
  • Topic: International Relations, International Political Economy
  • Political Geography: Iran
  • Publication Date: 11-2017
  • Content Type: Commentary and Analysis
  • Institution: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
  • Abstract: Partial or complete disarmament of violent sub- state actors in border areas is a prerequisite for achieving domestic and regional stability. This applies to the Lebanese Hezbollah, Hamas in the Palestinian territories, the Houthi group in Yemen, Shi’ite and Kurdish militias in Syria, the al-Hashd al-Shaabi (Popular Mobilization Forc- es) in Iraq, tens of area-based armed groups in militias in Libya and tribal militias such as the Rapid Support Forces and the Janjaweed militia in Sudan. All these represent roving armies crossing soft borders.
  • Topic: International Security
  • Political Geography: Middle East
  • Publication Date: 11-2017
  • Content Type: Commentary and Analysis
  • Institution: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
  • Abstract: Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdo- gan continues his years-old pressure on the Central Bank to lower interest rates in a bid to encourage lending and consumption, and support the country’s economic growth, damaged by the mid-2016 failed coup attempt. The Turkish economic community considers that the move is highly risky, especially because of the possibility that the apex bank would lose credibility and weaken its ability to achieve monetary and financial stability.
  • Topic: International Affairs
  • Political Geography: Turkey
  • Author: Patrycja Sasnal
  • Publication Date: 12-2017
  • Content Type: Commentary and Analysis
  • Institution: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
  • Abstract: Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman is solidifying his position and changes to the foreign policy of Saudi Arabia. His main objective is the forceful consolidation of the Arab camp against Iran and the Muslim Brotherhood. Key decisions of Saudi foreign policy—the military intervention in Yemen, imposition of a blockade on Qatar, and pressure on the Lebanese government—have proven counterproductive. The continuation of this ill-advised policy is neither conducive towards the stability of the Middle East, nor to the Saudi posture and ability to form alliances.
  • Topic: International Security
  • Political Geography: Saudi Arabia
  • Author: Wojciech Lorenz
  • Publication Date: 12-2017
  • Content Type: Commentary and Analysis
  • Institution: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
  • Abstract: According to the new U.S. strategy for Afghanistan, winter will not stop intensified operations against the Taliban. With the increased U.S. and NATO troop level, Afghan forces will switch from defensive to offensive activities. Only stronger military pressure and other forms of influence taken together might impel the Taliban to negotiate with the government in Kabul. The political effects of the new strategy should be expected only in a longer-term perspective.
  • Topic: International Affairs
  • Political Geography: Afghanistan
  • Author: Anna Maria Dyner
  • Publication Date: 12-2017
  • Content Type: Commentary and Analysis
  • Institution: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
  • Abstract: With the International Olympic Committee excluding the Russian national team from the 2018 Winter Olympics in South Korea, the importance for Russia’s authorities of the FIFA World Cup is increasing. World Cup competition will be held from 14 June to 15 July 2018. The tournament will be used in Russia’s internal politics, especially in the presidential campaign, and in relations with other countries to strengthen bilateral contacts and portray Russia as a country with a strong international position.
  • Topic: International Affairs
  • Political Geography: Russia
  • Publication Date: 12-2017
  • Content Type: Commentary and Analysis
  • Institution: Razumkov Centre
  • Abstract: The next presidential election in Ukraine is set for 31 March 2019. The parliamentary election to the 9th Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine will take place on 27 October 2019. According to the latest survey conducted in October 2017, the following parties would be elected to the Parliament: «Petro Poroshenko Bloc «Solidarity» (13.6%), «Batkivshchyna» (10%), «Civic Position» party (8.9%), «Opposition Bloc» party (8.6%), «For Life» party (6.8%), the Radical Party of Oleh Lyashko (6.5%), «Self Help» Union (5.9%). Others would not be able to cross the 5% threshold.
  • Topic: International Affairs
  • Political Geography: Global Focus
  • Publication Date: 11-2017
  • Content Type: Commentary and Analysis
  • Institution: Razumkov Centre
  • Abstract: Before the bill “On the peculiarities of state policy on the restoration of Ukraine’s state sovereignty over the temporarily occupied territories of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts” is adopted, it needs some additional work.
  • Topic: International Affairs
  • Political Geography: Global Focus
  • Publication Date: 10-2017
  • Content Type: Commentary and Analysis
  • Institution: Razumkov Centre
  • Abstract: ANTI-CORRUPTION COURT: TO EXECUTE IMPOSSIBLE TO PARDON determined by the level of people’s awareness, candidates’ hidden motives. Society must ask questions: who is the candidate, what does he seek, does he represent a particular person, or is he an independent law-maker? We have to ask ourselves as well. Because after the election campaign of 2014, many new deputies emerged, but they did not turn out to be who they positioned themselves as. The issue of the quality of parliamentarism is a deep one, it cannot be associated with a certain law, – it is connected with political culture that needs to be developed. Full text Kharkiv oblast, and Svatove in Luhansk oblast in 2015. This year, attention of the entire country was drawn to the fires in Balaklia, Kharkiv oblast in late March, and now – the one not far from Kalynivka, Vinnytsia oblast. situation, where the corruption search campaign across all levels of the government triad has brought Ukraine to the top of corrupt states list, and the judiciary is consistently and deliberately deprived of the lion’s share of public trust, the creation of a specialised anti-corruption court will bring the fight against corruption into a practical stage. Full text The court system is largely disoriented and demoralised. It is hard to predict the results of its next modernisation in the sense of its ability to bring all of its segments together to properly administer fair justice. Today, the expert and political community is awaiting the «finalising» of assembly of the new Supreme Court and the determination of prospects for creating the anti-corruption court, especially, methods and ways this issue is to be solved.
  • Topic: International Affairs
  • Political Geography: Global Focus
  • Publication Date: 07-2017
  • Content Type: Commentary and Analysis
  • Institution: Razumkov Centre
  • Abstract: In Ukraine, every President that comes to power aspires to change the Constitution of Ukraine, however, even this Constitution has hardly ever been abided by in the 20 years. Our civil society is still underdeveloped. We still experience only occasional surges – one Maidan, then another one, where the civil society shows itself. We still have not reached the point where civil society controls the government.
  • Topic: International Affairs
  • Political Geography: Global Focus