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2. Anti-Government Demonstrations in Iran: A Long-Term Challenge for the Islamic Republic
- Author:
- Dana Sammy
- Publication Date:
- 04-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
- Abstract:
- Iran was rocked by mass demonstrations triggered by the September 2022 death of Mahsa Amini — a young Kurdish woman — while in the custody of the Guidance Patrol (also known as the ‘morality police’) for allegedly violating the hijab dress code. Protests over the mandatory hijab rule soon coalesced around a wide range of grievances with the regime, with participants demanding protections for civil, political, and human rights and calling for an end to the Islamic Republic. Although street demonstrations have subsided for the time being, how the protest movement will evolve — and how it will impact the stability of the Islamic Republic — remains an open question. This report explores potential answers to this question by examining notable trends and implications of the wave of demonstrations that unfolded in the country between September and December 2022. It argues that several emerging aspects of the nationwide movement may pose a long-term challenge to the regime. The demonstrations following Amini’s death were not only unique in regard to their geographical spread and longevity, but also in the way they brought together different segments of society with both distinct and overlapping grievances. Moreover, amid a harsh crackdown by Iranian authorities, engagement in violence by demonstrators has trended upward: between mid-September and December 2022, ACLED records the highest number of violent demonstration events for any round of nationwide demonstrations in Iran since the beginning of data collection in 2016. The increased use of Molotov cocktails and the killing of dozens of security personnel are among the most significant trends in demonstration violence observed in the latest round of events. The demonstrations did not reach a critical mass necessary to pose an immediate threat to the survival of the regime. Yet, this latest round in a sequence of increasingly violent demonstrations is indicative of growing resentment in Iranian society against the ruling elites and a willingness to express it forcefully despite severe repression. As the regime refuses to reform, the growing frequency and intensity of demonstrations suggests that the government will find itself in an increasingly unstable domestic position and increasingly isolated in the international arena.
- Topic:
- Government, Human Rights, Women, State Violence, and Protests
- Political Geography:
- Iran and Middle East
3. Institutionalizing Downward Accountability: The Bangladesh Experience
- Author:
- Shaheen Anam
- Publication Date:
- 02-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- East Asia Institute (EAI)
- Abstract:
- In this issue briefing, Shaheen Anam, Executive Director at Manusher Jonno Foundation, explores the challenges of institutionalizing downward accountability and assesses how such difficulties are projected in development projects of various sizes. Anam argues that effective bottom-up planning requires expertise of stakeholders, strong political will from above, and most importantly, active participation of the local community. Through a Bangladesh case study, Anam offers a successful example of the civil society taking advantage of social accountability tools to channel its voice and improve the transparency of the authorities.
- Topic:
- Civil Society, Development, Government, Accountability, Institutions, and Transparency
- Political Geography:
- Bangladesh and South Asia
4. The Number of Countries with Coups d’etats and Other Constitutional Changes in Government is Rising: How should donors stay engaged?
- Author:
- Sarah Cliffe, Renata Dwan, Betty N. Wainaina, and Leah Zamore
- Publication Date:
- 03-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Center on International Cooperation
- Abstract:
- Last week, CIC released a major new joint report with Chatham House on aid to “politically-estranged” settings – countries where donor relations with national authorities are frayed or broken because of unconstitutional changes in government, internationally contested elections, and major sanctions. Development aid to these countries has been suspended or severely curtailed, often because of domestic pressures to disengage, leaving the problem to traditional humanitarian approaches. In this report, CIC and Chatham House argue that development engagement is needed, and outline the ways to do so without legitimizing unconstitutional regimes, in concertation with regional actors. This piece focuses on two major areas: Why should donors care in this current moment? What has been new in our thinking about the major challenges and solutions for how to work in these contexts?
- Topic:
- Government, Constitution, Multilateralism, Coup, and Donors
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
5. Big data and national security: A guide for Australian policymakers
- Author:
- Miah Hammond-Errey
- Publication Date:
- 02-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Lowy Institute for International Policy
- Abstract:
- Data abundance, digital connectivity, and ubiquitous technology now enable near complete coverage of human lives across the planet, often in real-time. The Covid-19 pandemic, by forcing more interactions online and greater social reliance on technology, has significantly added to the global pool of data. Advances in the scale, application, and commercial uses of data significantly outpace regulation of the big data landscape. Technical and analytical capabilities that are essential for the functioning of societies are increasingly concentrated in the hands of a small number of commercial entities. The implications of big data for surveillance, real or potential interference, and kinetic war are underappreciated in policy and public discussions. Identifying and protecting the uses of critical data should be a national security priority for government on par with safeguarding critical digital infrastructure.
- Topic:
- Government, National Security, Science and Technology, Surveillance, and Data
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
6. Foresight and its application in ministries of foreign affairs
- Author:
- Javier Ignacio Santander
- Publication Date:
- 05-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Argentine Council for International Relations (CARI)
- Abstract:
- Based on previous research regarding foresight capabilities of ministries of foreign affairs, this work focuses on the modern concept of foresight and of its application to foreign relations. Specifically, it aims to provide a summary of similiarities observed in the way in which foreign affairs ministries have developed foresight capacity.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Government, and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
7. Why the Opposition Win in Barinas, Venezuela Matters
- Author:
- Ociel Alí López
- Publication Date:
- 01-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- The victory of opposition candidate Sergio Garrido in the governorship race in the state of Barinas on January 9 changes the symbolic map of Venezuela’s internal diatribe. The result barely affects the country’s political-territorial map; the governing party swept the regional elections on November 21 with 19 of 23 governorships and 210 of 335 mayoralties. However, it does mark a tremendous change in the sensibility with which the opposition and the government have participated in a political environment that is, if you will, hospitable—for the first time in many years.
- Topic:
- Government, Elections, Domestic Politics, and Opposition
- Political Geography:
- South America and Venezuela
8. Political Prisoners to Ortega’s Narrative
- Author:
- José Luis Rocha
- Publication Date:
- 05-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- In Nicaragua, the story of a government fighting against the U.S. capitalist empire exposes deep contradictions.
- Topic:
- Government, Prisons/Penal Systems, Domestic Politics, Political Prisoners, Empire, and Daniel Ortega
- Political Geography:
- Central America, Nicaragua, and United States of America
9. Peru: The Broken Dream of Transformative Government?
- Author:
- Alejandra Dinegro Martínez
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- Though Pedro Castillo’s victory initially seemed like a glimmer of hope, the reality of the past eight months has been disappointing.
- Topic:
- Government, Elections, Domestic Politics, and Presidential Elections
- Political Geography:
- South America and Peru
10. Mexico’s Military Knew Ayotzinapa 43 Were Kidnapped, Then Covered It Up
- Author:
- Ñaní Pinto
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- Following a new report, families of the 43 students criticized the government of President Andrés Manuel López Obrador for failing to follow through on promises to finally solve the case.
- Topic:
- Corruption, Crime, Government, Kidnapping, and Military
- Political Geography:
- North America and Mexico