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  • Author: Andrey Korobkov
  • Publication Date: 01-2016
  • Content Type: Commentary and Analysis
  • Institution: Rethinking Russia
  • Abstract: The 58th quadrennial U.S. presidential elections were held on November 8, 2016. Republican Donald Trump won the White House. Following the elections, «Rethinking Russia» think-tank has collected a set of comments by Russian and foreign experts.
  • Topic: International Relations, International Organization, International Affairs
  • Political Geography: America
  • Author: Danielle Ryan
  • Publication Date: 01-2016
  • Content Type: Commentary and Analysis
  • Institution: Rethinking Russia
  • Abstract: As the world comes to terms with the knowledge that Donald Trump will soon be handed the keys to the White House, Moldovans are preparing to vote in a runoff presidential election which will set their country either on a firmly pro-Western course or on the path toward better relations with Russia.
  • Topic: International Relations, International Security, International Affairs
  • Political Geography: America, Moldavia
  • Author: Yan Vaslavskiy
  • Publication Date: 01-2016
  • Content Type: Commentary and Analysis
  • Institution: Rethinking Russia
  • Abstract: The 13th Valdai Discussion Club session was held in Sochi October 24-27. Ever since its establishment in 2004, the Club has gained the reputation, first of all, as a forum for Russian and foreign experts to compare notes on a wide range of international issues. Secondly, the President of Russia drops into the exclusive club on quite a regular basis.
  • Topic: International Relations, Foreign Policy, International Affairs
  • Political Geography: Russia
  • Author: Tatyana Alekseeva
  • Publication Date: 01-2016
  • Content Type: Commentary and Analysis
  • Institution: Rethinking Russia
  • Abstract: The International Primakov Readings Forum took place November 29-30, 2016, in commemoration of Yevgeny Primakov. The meeting was organized by the Russian Chamber of Commerce and Industry and the Primakov Institute of World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO led by Alexander Dynkin) and was backed by the World Trade Center, the Russian Science Foundation, the Council for Foreign and Defense Policy, and the University of Pennsylvania. In his address to the Forum, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin argued that Primakov had succeeded in predicting the events unfolding in today’s world, especially in the Middle East. As the Head of State put it, “Actually, I was always taking heed of Primakov’s assessments, as he was a wise and astute diplomat. I trusted him and asked to accomplish responsible and sensitive missions rather than ordered him”. Besides, the Primakov Readings Conference brought together Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, Chair of the Federation Council Valentina Matvienko, and President’s foreign policy adviser Yuri Ushakov who delivered an opening speech. The Forum was also attended by most leading experts on international relations. The Rethinking Russia Think Tank presents the comment of Tatyana Alekseeva, a participant of the Primakov Readings Forum.
  • Topic: International Relations, International Affairs
  • Political Geography: Russia, Global Focus
  • Author: Bryan MacDonald
  • Publication Date: 01-2016
  • Content Type: Commentary and Analysis
  • Institution: Rethinking Russia
  • Abstract: At the start of 1917, rumours reached London that something was stirring in Petrograd (now St. Petersburg). As a result, the concerned Prime Minister, David Lloyd George, urgently dispatched Lord Milner, a diplomat of some repute, to the Russian capital. His Lordship visited the Tsar and spoke to ministers and members of the Duma, who informed him that enemies of the state were spreading groundless yarns. Sadly, being a creature of his class, Milner believed that only the elites mattered so he neglected to consult any of the general public. Thus, cocooned in his bubble, the peer reported to London that there was nothing the government could not handle and no need to expect no major changes. However, the same British travelling party also included Lloyd George’s private secretary Philip Kerr. A little more clued in, Kerr walked the streets and interviewed the plain folk. Armed with their predictions, he sent a telegram to Downing Street which asserted that Russia was on the verge of an unstoppable revolution. As it happens, the man who stepped out of the comfort zone was right because Nikolai II was shorn of his crown before the British delegation made it home. We know this story because many years later the ‘Welsh Wizard,’ Lloyd George, revealed the details to Ivan Maisky, the Soviet ambassador to London. And almost a hundred years later, it is a salutary lesson in the dangers of the establishment refusing to acknowledge ordinary people’s concerns when evaluating the causes of political upheaval.
  • Topic: International Relations, International Security, International Affairs
  • Political Geography: Russia, Global Focus
  • Author: Dejan Skoric
  • Publication Date: 10-2016
  • Content Type: Commentary and Analysis
  • Institution: Belgrade Centre for Security Policy
  • Abstract: Applying the "PRO-CURE" methodology, Dejan Skoric from the Association Resource Centre Majdanpek, conducted an analysis of the expediency of the spending of public funds from the budgets of local governments for the purchase of fire-fighting vehicles and equipment.
  • Topic: Corruption, National Security
  • Political Geography: Serbia
  • Author: Ana Aćimov
  • Publication Date: 10-2016
  • Content Type: Commentary and Analysis
  • Institution: Belgrade Centre for Security Policy
  • Abstract: The case study applies "PRO-CURE" methodology to analyse performance of expenditures for equipping the traffic police at the local level. The author particularly questions the difference between the proclaimed strategic priorities of the Ministry of Interior and its annual procurement plans, as well as the the distribution of the burden of financing the traffic police between Ministry of Interior and local governments.
  • Topic: Finance
  • Political Geography: Serbia
  • Author: Miroslav Mijatović
  • Publication Date: 10-2016
  • Content Type: Commentary and Analysis
  • Institution: Belgrade Centre for Security Policy
  • Abstract: Applying the "PRO-CURE" methodology for assessing the procurement expediency, Miroslav Mijatovic of Podrinjski Anti-Corruption Tim Loznica, conducted a study on the procurement of anti-hail rockets in Loznica in 2014 and 2015. In this study the author has also provided an overview of the overall state of hail protection in Serbia, as well as recommendations for improvement of this system.
  • Topic: Defense Policy
  • Political Geography: Serbia
  • Author: Jeremy Shapiro
  • Publication Date: 10-2016
  • Content Type: Commentary and Analysis
  • Institution: European Council On Foreign Relations
  • Abstract: The transatlantic relationship is likely to face difficult challenges whatever the result of the US election. If Trump wins he will launch a revolutionary presidency — pulling back from NATO and other security guarantees, undermining key parts of the global free trade regime and building closer relations with strong-man leaders than allies. Even if Hillary is elected the transatlantic relationship could still face difficult albeit more everyday challenges. Her poor relations with Moscow, exacerbated by gender issues, could threaten transatlantic unity on Russia. Europe would be foolish not to learn lessons from the experience of Trump’s candidacy. Trump represents only an extreme version of a growing feeling in the United States that, in a time of relative decline, the country is getting a raw deal from its allies. The EU should not be complacent in assuming that the transatlantic relationship will continue as it is and should begin to take more responsibility for its own defence and build resilience against a potentially more self-interested US.
  • Topic: International Relations, International Affairs
  • Political Geography: Global Focus
  • Author: Dinshaw Mistry
  • Publication Date: 12-2016
  • Content Type: Commentary and Analysis
  • Institution: East-West Center
  • Abstract: In the early and mid-2000s, US policymakers anticipated India becoming one of America's top global partners. Have New Delhi's policies on key strategic issues actually aligned strongly with US objectives, as would be typical of close partners? An analysis of twelve prominent issues in US-India relations indicates that New Delhi's policies mostly converged moderately, rather than to a high extent, with US objectives. Specifically, the alignment between New Delhi's policies and US objectives was high or moderate-to-high on three issues--UN peacekeeping, nonproliferation export controls, and arms sales. It was moderate or low-to-moderate on six issues--China, Iran, Afghanistan, Indian Ocean security, Pakistan, and bilateral defense cooperation. And it was low or negligible on three issues--nuclear reactor contracts for US firms, nuclear arms control, and the war in Iraq. To be sure, despite the low or negligible convergence, New Delhi did not take an anti-US position on these issues.
  • Topic: International Relations, International Cooperation
  • Political Geography: America, India
  • Publication Date: 12-2016
  • Content Type: Commentary and Analysis
  • Institution: East-West Center
  • Abstract: To better understand impacts of climate change across diverse sectors in Hawaii, resource managers and scientists collaborate with climate modelers who create projections of future climate conditions, such as changes in patterns of rainfall and temperature at the end of the 21st century. To make global climate projections applicable for Hawaii, the models must be downscaled (see Figure 1) to provide increased spatial detail for resource managers and cultural stewards. Different methods and models are used, and because these are projections for many decades from now, the results often span a range of possibilities. A Workshop held in September 2015 brought climate modelers and resource managers together to discuss areas of agreement about different aspects of climate projection. The purpose of this document is to summarize levels of expert consensus across different climate projections, and to offer guidance for resource managers, cultural stewards, and community leaders to better understand applications and limitations of available projections for the State.
  • Topic: Climate Change
  • Political Geography: Hawaii
  • Author: Hans Martin Sieg
  • Publication Date: 11-2016
  • Content Type: Commentary and Analysis
  • Institution: German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
  • Abstract: The EU’s Eastern Partnership (EaP) faces a double challenge. The transformation of post-Soviet countries it was designed to support has largely failed to emerge. In its place, a conflict with Russia has arisen for which the EaP was unprepared. This spells a dilemma. Rather than support EaP governments on the basis of their reform records, the EU is tempted to back them for the geopoli- tical choices they have made (namely, for their professed pro-European positions). In the long run, however, the EaP cannot succeed without delivering on its “trans- formational agenda.” Even in countries that have already signed Association Ag- reements with the EU, the ultimate success of the EaP is in question. This analysis describes the EaP’s “transformational challenge.” It argues that geopolitical com- petition with Russia was neither avoidable nor will it be easy to overcome. The key obstacle to change, however, is not geopolitical competition but the veto power of vested interests within EaP countries themselves. Since this veto power marks a crucial difference from conditions that prevailed in EU enlargements in Central Europe, the EaP’s response must apply a different transformational logic. The EU must go beyond merely supporting reforms in the EaP and effectively take co- responsibility for them. This involves upgrading the principle of conditionality and getting involved more directly in implementation. The paper concludes by stressing the importance of human resources in state institutions and proposes concrete measures for appointing and retaining qualified personnel and, particularly, inde- pendent leaders for key law enforcement and regulatory bodies.
  • Topic: Geopolitics
  • Political Geography: Eastern Europe
  • Author: Maria Ramos, Carlos Victoria
  • Publication Date: 11-2016
  • Content Type: Commentary and Analysis
  • Institution: German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
  • Abstract: Youth unemployment rates in Spain are considerably higher than the European average. Moreover, those young people who do have jobs generally work under extremely unstable conditions on temporary contracts. Most of these temporary contracts are “involuntary” – workers would prefer to nd permanent jobs but are unable to do so. The consequences of this job insecurity in Spain are dramatic. Across the educational spectrum, young workers are at greater risk of remaining unemployed, getting stuck in temporary contracts for long periods of time, experiencing wage penalties, or being over-quali ed for their jobs. The crisis has increased the overall risk of long-term poverty and social exclusion, particularly for youth with migrant backgrounds and those who are not in education, employ- ment, or training. The paper concludes by outlining the three most urgent objec- tives for the Spanish labor market today: bridging the gap between education and work; developing active labor market policies; and reducing labor market segmen- tation between workers with temporary and permanent contracts and between “insiders” and “outsiders.”
  • Topic: Youth Culture, Employment
  • Political Geography: Spain
  • Author: Iryna Solonenko
  • Publication Date: 05-2016
  • Content Type: Commentary and Analysis
  • Institution: German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
  • Abstract: In the two years since its “Revolution of Dignity” – also known as Euromaidan – Ukraine has launched important reform initiatives. Most of them are still in the inception phase, however, and much remains to be done to ensure their sustainability. The past two years have made clear the enormity of the challenge Ukraine faces in its transformation. At the same time, it has also shown unprece- dentedly strong determination on the part of new reform-minded actors to overhaul the old system. Ukraine today can best understood as a battlefield: the old system and its structures are fighting for their survival, as new actors – from both within the system and outside it – push for a new social contract. This struggle is taking place on an everyday basis at different levels, national and local, in a number of different reform areas. External actors can best contribute by giving stronger sup- port to reformers while promoting development of institutions that limit the space for vested interests to persist. Special attention should be paid to enforcing and implementing already adopted decisions and new laws that change the rules of the game.
  • Topic: International Relations, International Affairs
  • Political Geography: Ukraine
  • Author: Stefan Meister
  • Publication Date: 04-2016
  • Content Type: Commentary and Analysis
  • Institution: German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
  • Abstract: The Germany-Poland-Russia Trialogue Workshop held at the DGAP in December 2015 focused on security. It brought together a group of Russian, Pol- ish, and German experts to discuss their respective national security discourses and the security situation in Europe more generally. The three short papers includ- ed here provide brief analyses of how the security situation is currently perceived in each of the three countries. From the German side, the answer was the refugee crisis. Polish experts pointed to the threat posed by Russia, while the Russian speakers described their worries about color revolutions and regime change in the post-Soviet sphere. Certainly, perceptions of security threats differ greatly among EU member states, to say nothing of the difference between Russia and the EU as a whole. Only real understanding of our counterparts can help in forging a new modus vivendi and overcoming the dangerous situation in which Europe currently nds itself. The Germany-Poland-Russia Trialogues aim to forge better understand- ing of “the other side” through presentations and opportunities for discussion, offering crucial rst steps toward overcoming misperceptions and stereotypes. The Trialogue meets regularly under the aegis of the DGAP (German Council on Foreign Relations), IMEMO (Primakov Institute of World Economy and International Relations Russian Academy of Sciences), and PISM (Polish Institute of International Affairs) and in cooperation with and nancial support from SDPZ (Foundation for Polish-German Cooperation) and the Heinrich Böll Foundation’s Warsaw office
  • Topic: International Security
  • Political Geography: Europe
  • Author: Christopher Davidson
  • Publication Date: 12-2016
  • Content Type: Commentary and Analysis
  • Institution: Hudson Institute
  • Abstract: Testimony before the U.S. House Committee on Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on Europe, Eurasia, and Emerging Threats
  • Topic: International Affairs
  • Political Geography: America
  • Author: David W Murray
  • Publication Date: 06-2016
  • Content Type: Commentary and Analysis
  • Institution: Hudson Institute
  • Abstract: Testimony before the U.S. Senate Committee on Homeland Security & Governmental Affairs
  • Topic: War on Drugs, International Affairs
  • Political Geography: America
  • Author: Michael Scott Doran
  • Publication Date: 05-2016
  • Content Type: Commentary and Analysis
  • Institution: Hudson Institute
  • Abstract: Testimony before the Committee on Oversight and Government Reform, United States House of Representatives
  • Topic: International Affairs, Nuclear Power
  • Political Geography: Global Focus
  • Author: Seth Cropsey
  • Publication Date: 02-2016
  • Content Type: Commentary and Analysis
  • Institution: Hudson Institute
  • Abstract: Testimony before the U.S. House Committee on Armed Services Subcommittee on Seapower and Projection Forces
  • Topic: International Security
  • Political Geography: America
  • Author: Robert M McDowell
  • Publication Date: 01-2016
  • Content Type: Commentary and Analysis
  • Institution: Hudson Institute
  • Abstract: Testimony before the U.S. House Committee on Energy and Commerce Subcommittee on Communications and Technology
  • Topic: International Affairs
  • Political Geography: America