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152. El Salvador’s State of Exception Turns One
- Author:
- Katherine Funes
- Publication Date:
- 03-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- Rather than address the root causes of violence, President Nayib Bukele’s prolonged state of emergency militarizes Salvadoran society and exacerbates state persecution of vulnerable communities.
- Topic:
- Human Rights, State Violence, Violence, LGBT+, and Mass Incarceration
- Political Geography:
- Latin America, Central America, and El Salvador
153. The Latin American Left Turns Its Back on Dictatorship
- Author:
- Raúl Zibechi
- Publication Date:
- 03-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- The Latin American Left has largely distanced itself from Nicaragua’s Ortega. Still, understanding the shift from revolution to authoritarianism remains complex.
- Topic:
- Human Rights, Authoritarianism, Revolution, and Leftist Politics
- Political Geography:
- Latin America and Nicaragua
154. The Drive Behind Tesla’s New Manufacturing Plant in Mexico
- Author:
- Mateo Crossa and Nina Ebner
- Publication Date:
- 04-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- Tesla’s plan to open a Gigafactory in Monterrey is welcomed by local business elites, but will only deepen processes of labor devaluation and technological dependency.
- Topic:
- Science and Technology, Labor Issues, Business, Manufacturing, Elites, and Tesla
- Political Geography:
- Latin America and Mexico
155. Peru's Media Faces a Crisis Within a Crisis
- Author:
- Brunella Tipismana
- Publication Date:
- 04-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- With Peru's mainstream media concentrated in a few hands, citizens turn to the internet to challenge hegemonic narratives. The results are not always utopian.
- Topic:
- Human Rights, Media, Protests, Crisis Management, and Bias
- Political Geography:
- South America, Latin America, and Peru
156. Anarchists vs. the State
- Author:
- Kirwin Shaffer
- Publication Date:
- 04-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- As Latin America swings left, activists keep alive a long anarchist tradition of critiquing the limits of state power. For them, the real alternatives are in communities, workplaces, and the streets.
- Topic:
- State, Anarchism, and Activism
- Political Geography:
- Brazil, Colombia, Latin America, Mexico, and Chile
157. The Reinvention of the Latin American Right
- Author:
- Luis Herrán-Ávila
- Publication Date:
- 04-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- Across the hemisphere and beyond, right-wing forces are leveraging the power of internationalism to galvanize hardline “resistance” against a new wave of leftist governments.
- Topic:
- Leftist Politics, Right-Wing Politics, Regional Politics, and Internationalism
- Political Geography:
- Latin America
158. Navigating Apathy and Attacks in the Struggle for Migrant Rights in Chile
- Author:
- Pablo Seward Delaporte
- Publication Date:
- 01-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- For one activist, Chile’s proposed constitution missed a historic opportunity to defend migrant rights amid a right-wing backlash that ultimately defeated the new progressive charter.
- Topic:
- Human Rights, Constitution, Domestic Politics, Right-Wing Politics, and Migrants
- Political Geography:
- South America, Latin America, and Chile
159. Anti-Abortion Organizing in Colombia
- Author:
- Radha Sarkar
- Publication Date:
- 01-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- Colombia now has one of the most liberal abortion regimes in the Americas, but with conservative groups rallying in opposition, the future of the country’s abortion rights is far from secure.
- Topic:
- Conservatism, Reproductive Rights, Abortion, and Community Organizing
- Political Geography:
- Colombia, South America, and Latin America
160. Peru: The Country of Failed Transitions
- Author:
- Roger Merino
- Publication Date:
- 01-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- Peru’s latest political crisis is rooted in the failure of key transitions to consolidate democracy and basic social coexistence.
- Topic:
- Democracy, Transition, Political Crisis, and Society
- Political Geography:
- South America, Latin America, and Peru
161. What’s Next for Bolivia After Camacho’s Arrest?
- Author:
- Pablo Solon
- Publication Date:
- 01-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- A controversial, high-profile detention reveals deep divides within the MAS and an uncertain path forward amid an ongoing conservative backlash.
- Topic:
- Politics, Domestic Politics, Conservatism, Protests, and Right-Wing Politics
- Political Geography:
- South America, Latin America, and Bolivia
162. Popular Organizing is the Only Way to Stop Bolsonarismo
- Author:
- Sabrina Fernandes
- Publication Date:
- 01-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- The essence of the phenomenon tied to Jair Bolsonaro’s rise is extreme, and it is a potent force for radicalizing people towards authoritarian and violent positions.
- Topic:
- Authoritarianism, Radicalization, Violence, Jair Bolsonaro, and Community Organizing
- Political Geography:
- Brazil and South America
163. “The Major Challenge to Brazilian Democracy Today Is Bolsonarismo”
- Author:
- Michael Fox
- Publication Date:
- 01-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- In the wake of the attack on Brasília, both the Lula administration and civil society have a major role to play in combatting the forces propelling Brazil’s far right.
- Topic:
- Civil Society, Domestic Politics, Far Right, Jair Bolsonaro, and Lula da Silva
- Political Geography:
- Brazil and South America
164. Brasília and Washington
- Author:
- Chris N. Lesser
- Publication Date:
- 01-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- Beyond the parallels with the U.S. Capitol riot, the latest assault on Brazil’s democracy is marked by Washington’s long history of anti-democratic foreign policy.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Democracy, Jair Bolsonaro, January 6, and Democratic Backsliding
- Political Geography:
- Brazil, South America, North America, and United States of America
165. Despite Indigenous Resistance, Mexico Authorizes Mining Concessions in Protected Areas
- Author:
- Santiago Navarro F.
- Publication Date:
- 01-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- President Andrés Manuel López Obrador entered office promising not to grant new mining licenses. But concessions have been authorized in Indigenous territories.
- Topic:
- Natural Resources, Mining, Indigenous, Resistance, and Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO)
- Political Geography:
- Latin America, Mexico, and North America
166. Indigenous Protesters Campaign to Make "Chineo" A Hate Crime in Argentina
- Author:
- Carole Concha Bell
- Publication Date:
- 01-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- Women and Indigenous groups denounce widespread sexual violence perpetrated against Indigenous girls and women in northern Argentina.
- Topic:
- Women, Protests, Sexual Violence, Indigenous, Girls, and Hate Crimes
- Political Geography:
- Argentina, South America, and Latin America
167. Honduran Women Leaders in the Crosshairs
- Author:
- Laura Blume, Diana Meza, and Piper Heath
- Publication Date:
- 01-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- Amid a widespread culture of impunity, women public figures are killed in Honduras at an alarming rate.
- Topic:
- Women, Leadership, Impunity, and Targeted Killing
- Political Geography:
- Latin America, Central America, and Honduras
168. A Legacy of Canadian Intervention in Haiti, 20 Years On
- Author:
- Jean Saint-Vil
- Publication Date:
- 01-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- As Canada and other foreign powers consider renewed intervention in Haiti, the history of the Ottawa Initiative offers an urgent reminder of the catastrophic consequences.
- Topic:
- Colonialism, Crisis Management, and Intervention
- Political Geography:
- Canada, Caribbean, and Haiti
169. El Salvador Arrests Prominent Anti-Mining Activists
- Author:
- Giada Ferrucci and Pedro Cabezas
- Publication Date:
- 02-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- The government of Nayib Bukele opens civil war wounds by arresting five water defenders linked to the historic community of Santa Marta, raising speculation about a possible reversal of the country’s metals mining ban.
- Topic:
- Civil War, Mining, Land Rights, Activism, Arbitrary Detentions, and State of Emergency
- Political Geography:
- Latin America, Central America, and El Salvador
170. Is Colombia One Step Away from a Fracking Ban?
- Author:
- César Rodríguez
- Publication Date:
- 02-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- While lawmakers debate a proposed fracking prohibition, deepening struggles over the social and environmental impacts of oil and gas extraction loom.
- Topic:
- Environment, Oil, Gas, Legislation, Wealth Extraction, and Fracking
- Political Geography:
- Colombia, South America, and Latin America
171. Chile’s New Constitutional Process Shifts to the Right
- Author:
- Cathy Schneider and Sofía Williamson-García
- Publication Date:
- 02-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- Hollowed-out political parties and the legacy of dictatorship once again leave Chile’s constitutional process hindered by a crisis of representation.
- Topic:
- Constitution, Domestic Politics, Representation, and Dictatorship
- Political Geography:
- South America and Chile
172. Brazil’s First-Ever Ministry of Indigenous Peoples Launched Amid a State of Emergency
- Author:
- Daniela Rebello
- Publication Date:
- 02-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- Among the historic ministry's first challenges are a large-scale gold mining crackdown and an investigation of genocide against the Yanomami people.
- Topic:
- Genocide, Domestic Politics, Mining, Indigenous, and State of Emergency
- Political Geography:
- Brazil and South America
173. War in Ukraine: One Year On, Nowhere Safe
- Author:
- Nichita Gurcov
- Publication Date:
- 03-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
- Abstract:
- Since the beginning of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, ACLED records nearly 40,000 political violence events across the country. Three-quarters of these events are shelling, artillery, and missile strikes mostly affecting the northeastern, eastern, and southern regions of Ukraine. Quantifying the civilian toll of the conflict presents a challenge – especially in areas continuously engulfed by violence, like eastern Ukraine. In areas under Russian occupation, reports of abductions, forced disappearances, torture, and extrajudicial executions have been widespread, though the scale of violence against civilians becomes known only upon the liberation of territories, evidenced in the case of northern Ukraine and especially the Kyiv suburbs. Meanwhile, long-range strikes, including those deliberately targeting civilian infrastructure, pose a permanent threat and continue to induce extreme hardship for communities even farther afield from the frontline.
- Topic:
- War Crimes, Conflict, Civilians, Russia-Ukraine War, and Threat Assessment
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Ukraine
174. Political Repression in Cuba Ahead of the 2023 Parliamentary Elections
- Author:
- Sandra Pellegrini and Ana Marco
- Publication Date:
- 03-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
- Abstract:
- On 26 March 2023, voters will elect 470 deputies to Cuba’s National Assembly of People’s Power, who, in addition to fulfilling legislative functions during their five-year term, will be nominating Cuba’s next head of state. The government has characterized Cuba’s political system as a grassroots democracy, where candidacies to the parliament largely emerge from municipal authorities and are approved by the National Candidate Commission, a body composed of social organizations, such as labor unions and student associations.1 In practice, however, Cuba’s electoral process has been criticized for blocking the opposition’s access to power. Notably, the Council for Democratic Transition in Cuba, a platform created by opposition members to promote pluralism, freedom, and human rights, has called voters to boycott the upcoming elections after pro-government supporters reportedly prevented several opposition candidates from running in the November 2022 municipal elections.2
- Topic:
- Elections, Domestic Politics, Repression, and Parliament
- Political Geography:
- Cuba, Latin America, and Caribbean
175. Actor Profile: The March 23 Movement (M23)
- Author:
- Ladd Serwat
- Publication Date:
- 03-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
- Abstract:
- The March 23 Movement (M23) — Mouvement du 23 Mars in French — is an armed group operating in Nord Kivu province of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), with alleged backing from the Rwandan government. The roots of the M23 go back to the disrupted integration process of Rwandophone militants following the Congo Wars, splitting those willing to return to Rwanda and others desiring to stay in DRC.1 Many fighters remained in Nord Kivu province to form the National Congress for the Defence of the People (CNDP) under the leadership of a former Rwandan Patriotic Front (RPF) militant, Laurent Nkunda. A precursor to the M23, the CNDP claimed to protect Congolese Tutsi and received Rwandan support.2 The M23’s name comes from the failed negotiation process between the CNDP and the Congolese government on 23 March 2009.3
- Topic:
- Political Violence, Non State Actors, and Armed Forces
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Democratic Republic of Congo
176. Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula: Sustained Resurgence in Yemen or Signs of Further Decline?
- Author:
- Emile Roy
- Publication Date:
- 04-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
- Abstract:
- In the first two months of 2023, suspected United States drone strikes killed two senior leaders of al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) in Yemen’s Marib governorate. One of the group’s top explosives experts, a Yemeni citizen named Husayn Hadbul (also known as Hassan al-Hadrami), was killed on 30 January. The group’s media chief and leader of the group’s Shura Council, Saudi citizen Hamad al-Tamimi (also known as Abu Abd al-Aziz al-Adnani), was killed on 26 February. These strikes on high-profile AQAP leaders took place amid a resurgence of AQAP activity in Yemen, which started during the United Nations-mediated truce between Houthi and anti-Houthi forces that lasted from April to the beginning of October 2022, and that has informally held to this date.1 The lull in fighting between Houthi and anti-Houthi forces induced by the truce allowed for a broader political and military reconfiguration within the anti-Houthi camp. At the political level, former President Abdrabbuh Mansur Hadi was replaced by an eight-member Presidential Leadership Council (PLC) to enhance coordination among anti-Houthi forces. Armed militias affiliated with the secessionist Southern Transitional Council (STC) and other United Arab Emirates (UAE)-backed forces exploited the new situation to gain control over territory in southern Yemen. As part of this territorial expansion, STC forces spearheaded several offensives against AQAP beginning in August 2022, leading to a sudden rise in AQAP activity in 2022.2 However, the nature of this overall increase is disputed, with some analysts arguing that it is a sign of AQAP’s weakness rather than its strength.3
- Topic:
- Non State Actors, Armed Forces, Conflict, Houthis, and Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP)
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Yemen
177. Anti-Government Demonstrations in Iran: A Long-Term Challenge for the Islamic Republic
- Author:
- Dana Sammy
- Publication Date:
- 04-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
- Abstract:
- Iran was rocked by mass demonstrations triggered by the September 2022 death of Mahsa Amini — a young Kurdish woman — while in the custody of the Guidance Patrol (also known as the ‘morality police’) for allegedly violating the hijab dress code. Protests over the mandatory hijab rule soon coalesced around a wide range of grievances with the regime, with participants demanding protections for civil, political, and human rights and calling for an end to the Islamic Republic. Although street demonstrations have subsided for the time being, how the protest movement will evolve — and how it will impact the stability of the Islamic Republic — remains an open question. This report explores potential answers to this question by examining notable trends and implications of the wave of demonstrations that unfolded in the country between September and December 2022. It argues that several emerging aspects of the nationwide movement may pose a long-term challenge to the regime. The demonstrations following Amini’s death were not only unique in regard to their geographical spread and longevity, but also in the way they brought together different segments of society with both distinct and overlapping grievances. Moreover, amid a harsh crackdown by Iranian authorities, engagement in violence by demonstrators has trended upward: between mid-September and December 2022, ACLED records the highest number of violent demonstration events for any round of nationwide demonstrations in Iran since the beginning of data collection in 2016. The increased use of Molotov cocktails and the killing of dozens of security personnel are among the most significant trends in demonstration violence observed in the latest round of events. The demonstrations did not reach a critical mass necessary to pose an immediate threat to the survival of the regime. Yet, this latest round in a sequence of increasingly violent demonstrations is indicative of growing resentment in Iranian society against the ruling elites and a willingness to express it forcefully despite severe repression. As the regime refuses to reform, the growing frequency and intensity of demonstrations suggests that the government will find itself in an increasingly unstable domestic position and increasingly isolated in the international arena.
- Topic:
- Government, Human Rights, Women, State Violence, and Protests
- Political Geography:
- Iran and Middle East
178. Actor Profile: The Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG)
- Author:
- Sandra Pellegrini and María Fernanda Arocha
- Publication Date:
- 04-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
- Abstract:
- The Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG) is a Mexican criminal group that emerged as a splinter group of the Milenio Cartel – one of the Sinaloa Cartel’s allies – after the capture of its leader in 2009 led to internal divisions.1 Initially, the group operated as an armed wing of the Sinaloa Cartel. As part of this alliance, it engaged in a deadly turf war against Los Zetas in Veracruz state, where the group stood out for its use of violence and involvement in numerous massacres.2 Under the leadership of Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes, also known as El Mencho, the CJNG grew as an independent organization and one of the most powerful actors in Mexico’s criminal underworld. Rivaling its erstwhile ally, the Sinaloa Cartel, the CJNG turned from an armed wing into a complex drug-producing and trafficking structure, which supplies markets across the globe.3 It has diversified its activities and sources of income, relying on extortion, kidnapping, human trafficking, illegal mining, and oil theft,4 such as the capture of the avocado and oil trade in Michoacán and Guanajuato states.5 To support its growth and international ambitions, the CJNG has expanded its presence to at least 27 of Mexico’s 32 states.6 The presence of the CJNG has often driven increased violence at the local level, notably in areas of territorial dispute with other criminal groups.
- Topic:
- Non State Actors, Violence, Organized Crime, and Cartels
- Political Geography:
- Latin America, North America, and Mexico
179. Turkey’s 2023 General Elections and the Kurdish Question
- Author:
- Ameneh Mehvar and Berk Özlü
- Publication Date:
- 05-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
- Abstract:
- The most consequential elections in Turkey’s recent history are set to be held on 14 May, when Turkish citizens will elect a new president alongside a new parliament. An ideologically disparate coalition of six opposition parties, ranging from secularists, to Islamic conservatives, and Turkish nationalists, have joined forces under the leadership of Kemal Kilicdaroglu to unseat Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Erdogan has been in power for 20 years, initially as prime minister and then as president since 2014.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Minorities, Elections, and Kurds
- Political Geography:
- Turkey and Middle East
180. The Normalization of Political Violence and the 2023 Legislative Elections in Greece
- Author:
- Niki Papadogiannaki and Vicky Yiagopoulou
- Publication Date:
- 05-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
- Abstract:
- Elections in Greece come less than three months after the deadly head-on train collision at Tempe in the north of the country that killed 57 passengers. The incident on 28 February triggered demonstrations against the government of Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis, chastising him for initially blaming the collision on “tragic human error.”1 The unrest that followed caused the government to delay announcing the election date, which had been anticipated in April. Due to a new voting law, the elections will be held under a proportional representation system, wherein the leading party needs to secure at least 46% to have a chance to win absolute majority in parliament. However, this percentage has not been reached in the last three decades,2 making a clear victory on 21 May unlikely.
- Topic:
- Political Violence, Elections, Domestic Politics, and Protests
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Greece
181. The Muqawama and Its Enemies: Shifting Patterns in Iran-Backed Shiite Militia Activity in Iraq
- Author:
- Luca Nevola and Miran Feyli
- Publication Date:
- 05-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
- Abstract:
- The post-2003 security landscape in Iraq has seen the proliferation of dozens of militias identifying with Shiite Islam. Many of these actors are integrated into the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) – a paramilitary group established in 2014 to counter the Islamic State and later incorporated into the Iraqi state forces – and have strong relations with the Iranian regime and its security apparatus.1 These Iran-backed groups include prominent militias such as Kataib Hizbullah (KH), Asaib Ahl al-Haqq (AAH), and Haraka Hizbullah al-Nujaba (HHN), as well as a number of recently formed ‘facade groups’ like Ashab al-Kahf and Qasim al-Jabarin. Such facade groups are generally assumed to operate on behalf of KH, AAH, and HHN (see graph below). These groups are notable for portraying themselves as the Muqawama, or the ‘resistance’ against the United States and other foreign forces.
- Topic:
- Security, Non State Actors, Armed Forces, and Militias
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Iran, and Middle East
182. European Security and Defence: Don’t Get Your Hopes Up Just Yet
- Author:
- Adaja Stoetman
- Publication Date:
- 03-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- “2022 will be the year of European defence”.[1] These were the words of European Council President Charles Michel in October 2021. When he gave his speech at the Charlemagne Prize Award Ceremony in Aachen, no one expected that his statement would materialise in the way it did. Yes, headway was to be expected with the adoption of the Strategic Compass and European countries demonstrating commitment to investing more in defence cooperation. Although there is still a world of difference between ambitions and reality, the degree of progress accomplished in the past twelve months was not foreseen.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, NATO, Politics, European Union, and Institutions
- Political Geography:
- Europe
183. The War against Ukraine and Russia’s Position in Europe’s Security Order
- Author:
- Stephen Blank
- Publication Date:
- 03-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- Russia’s aggressions against its neighbours since 2008 – first Georgia, then Ukraine twice – impel the urgent reconstruction of European security. While articulating a post-war European security order and Russia’s place there is easy, implementing it is extremely difficult. Nevertheless, in Ukraine, Russia has unilaterally, and unprovokedly, violated or broken at least eight major international treaties and accords, ranging from the 1994 Budapest Memorandum, according to which Moscow had pledged to respect Ukraine’s territorial integrity, to the 1968 Non-Proliferation Treaty, which prohibits nuclear threats against non-nuclear states.[1] It has also broken NATO’s (and especially Washington’s) conventional deterrence.[2]
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, NATO, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Ukraine
184. Turkey vis-à-vis Russia’s War against Ukraine
- Author:
- Özgür Ünlühisarcıklı
- Publication Date:
- 03-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- Characterising Turkey’s policy towards Russia’s war on Ukraine is not an easy task. Elements of both support for Ukraine and neutrality have emerged in the past year. An analysis of the fundamentals of Turkey–US relations and Russia–Turkey relations is thus helpful.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, NATO, Bilateral Relations, European Union, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Turkey, Ukraine, and United States of America
185. Diplomacy and the War against Ukraine
- Author:
- Ferdinando Nelli Feroci
- Publication Date:
- 02-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- Normally, diplomacy is meant as the set of rules and processes that preside over international relations to prevent or resolve disputes and conflicts, or even as a special skill in dealing with complex issues and finding compromises. If this is the case, one may be tempted to conclude that diplomacy has so far failed with respect to the year-long conflict in Ukraine. But perhaps it is worth analysing the issue more closely.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Diplomacy, Crisis Management, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Ukraine
186. The War against Ukraine and Its Lessons for NATO Militaries: Food for Thought
- Author:
- Alessandro Marrone
- Publication Date:
- 02-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- One year of full-fledged conventional war fought on the European continent between two large countries, including a nuclear power, is obviously a historical watershed for NATO and the whole Euro-Atlantic area, whose strategic implications are yet to be fully assessed. The conflict has already destroyed a number of expectations widely shared in Western Europe, including the ideas that Putin would not have invaded the whole of Ukraine, that Western sanctions would have paralysed his ability to wage a prolonged military campaign, or that Europeans would have diminished their military support to Ukraine over the first wartime winter. Given the ongoing “fog of war” and uncertainty about future scenarios, it is perhaps too early to identify lessons for allies and their militaries. Still, the following elements may be considered food for thought for the Western defence policy communities, cum grano salis.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, NATO, Military Affairs, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Ukraine
187. The Existential Value of Ukraine’s Freedom
- Author:
- Nathalie Tocci
- Publication Date:
- 02-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has turned the international spotlight back onto the value of democracy and the contrast between liberal democracies and authoritarian systems. However, it has done so by adding nuance and emotional power to what was previously a rather sterile debate. When Joe Biden was elected President of the United States, putting an end – at least for the time being – to the traumatic years for US democracy epitomised by Donald Trump’s presidency, international politics reacquired a distinctively normative, if not ideological, taste. Powers like Russia and China should be opposed, not “only” because of their aggressive or unfair behaviour – be it in the South China Sea, Taiwan, Ukraine, cyber, energy, technology or trade – but because that malign behaviour, so the argument went, is intrinsically linked to the nature of their political systems: it’s democracy versus autocracy, stupid.
- Topic:
- Authoritarianism, Democracy, Freedom, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Ukraine
188. Italy’s Response to the Russian Invasion of Ukraine
- Author:
- Nona Mikhelidze
- Publication Date:
- 02-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- In line with the EU’s policy, former Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi and current Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni have taken a strong stance in response to the Russian aggression against Ukraine by firmly condemning the invasion and offering their full support for Kyiv’s territorial integrity, sovereignty and independence.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, European Union, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and Italy
189. Reach for the Stars: Bridging Italy’s Potential in Space with Its Foreign and Security Policy
- Author:
- Karolina Muti
- Publication Date:
- 01-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- Italian capabilities, expertise and potential in the space sector are not widely known. Among state actors, Rome has actually been a pioneer in the field, boasting a long tradition that started in 1964 when Italy became the third country, after the Soviet Union and the United States, to send a nationally manufactured satellite into orbit.[1] From an industrial standpoint, Italy is among the few countries whose companies cover the whole space value chain.[2] In Europe, Rome is ranked second for total number of assets in orbit and is currently the third contributor to the European Space Agency (ESA).[3] An Italian astronaut, Samantha Cristoforetti, has recently become the first European woman to take command of the International Space Station (ISS).[4]
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, NATO, Military Strategy, European Union, and Space
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Italy
190. The United States Is Rapidly Losing Arab Hearts and Minds Through Gaza War, While Competitors Benefit
- Author:
- Munqith Dagher and Karl Kaltenthaler
- Publication Date:
- 11-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Throughout the fifteen years that following the 2011 withdrawal from Iraq, each American presidential administration has experienced domestic calls to leave the Middle East. However, each time these voices grew louder, a new regional variable emerged that compelled the American administration to return to its traditional role dictated by urgent strategic security and economic interests. After the withdrawal from Iraq, a strategic vacuum led to the emergence of and fight against ISIS, with the deaths of thousands both locally and internationally, and millions from the region displaced. The U.S. military was forced to return to the region to contribute to the efforts to eliminate ISIS. When this goal was declared completed, new regional threats emerged in the form of Iran and its weapons, which threatened not only America’s allies but also the free flow of global oil supplies. While the Biden administration thought this problem could be resolved through a package of incentives and agreements with Iran, the war in Gaza has emerged to confirm once again the error of U.S. assessments that contend that this region is no longer important to America’s strategic interests. According to the third section of the U.S. National Security Strategy document signed by President Biden in October 2022, America's top priority on the global stage is to surpass China, followed by limiting Russia's influence. The national security priorities also include combating terrorism in the Middle East.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Public Opinion, Islamic State, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, and United States of America
191. Why China Is Taking Sides Against Israel—and Why It Will Likely Backfire
- Author:
- Michael Singh
- Publication Date:
- 11-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- When news broke of the Hamas attack on Israel last month, the silence from Beijing was conspicuous amid the din of international statements. When the government finally addressed the conflict at a press conference the day after, its words were remarkable for being unremarkable. An unnamed Foreign Ministry spokesperson expressed “deep concern,” called on “relevant parties to remain calm, exercise restraint, and immediately end the hostilities,” and lamented the “protracted standstill of the peace process”—a diplomatic endeavor in which Beijing has never shown more than a passing interest. The wording was nearly identical to China’s reactions during past Gaza conflicts, despite the fact that the circumstances were radically different. Because the brief remarks failed to condemn Hamas or even recognize the scale of the horrors that occurred on October 7, Israeli commentators interpreted them not as neutral, but as hostile. Beijing soon confirmed that interpretation. On October 14, Foreign Minister Wang Yi asserted that Israel’s actions went “beyond the scope of self-defense” and demanded that it stop imposing “group punishment” on Palestinians, while still refusing to condemn Hamas. (For a full listing of Beijing’s official statements on the conflict, see The Washington Institute’s statement tracker.) Chinese media have likewise presented the war as one of Israeli aggression—despite being heavily censored, their early reports were rife with anti-Semitic, anti-Israel commentary claiming that Hamas was defending the two-state solution, even though the group’s past and present actions are patently bent on destroying the Israeli state. Notably, the strident tone in online Chinese commentary moderated in the run-up to President Xi Jinping’s November 15 meeting with President Biden, underscoring the government’s well-established influence over such messaging. This approach is a stark departure from Beijing’s past impassivity toward Middle East conflicts, in which Chinese officials had usually sought to avoid entanglement. Rather, it reflects the government’s new inclination to use far-flung conflicts as opportunities to undermine the United States and score points in the “Global South.” Yet it could also hold longer-term consequences for China, particularly regarding the government’s three-decade effort to improve relations with Israel. In addition, using the current crisis to take potshots at Washington may constrain Beijing’s ability to project impartiality in other regional conflicts.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Politics, Strategic Competition, and Palestinians
- Political Geography:
- China, Middle East, Israel, Asia, and Gaza
192. Making Sense of Iraq’s Politicized Supreme Court Rulings
- Author:
- Selin Uysal
- Publication Date:
- 12-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- On November 14, Iraq’s Federal Supreme Court (FSC) made waves by ruling on a complaint against Speaker of Parliament Mohammed al-Halbousi, ultimately deciding to revoke his membership in the legislature. In the absence of any appeal mechanism, Halbousi will have to step down from the speakership he has held since 2018—a development that will have ripple effects on the provincial elections scheduled for December 18.
- Topic:
- Politics, Supreme Court, and Judiciary
- Political Geography:
- Iraq and Middle East
193. Nonviolent Protest Movement in Suweida Continues to Resurrect Calls from the Syrian Revolution
- Author:
- Ishtar Al Shami
- Publication Date:
- 12-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- On December 8, residents of Suweida city and the surrounding areas came out to protest the Assad regime yet again. Days later, as the movement entered its sixteenth week, a long line of protesters appeared in the town of Salkhad in the south of Suweida province. On these streets, waves of protesters chant “the people want the downfall of the regime,” echoing cries of the Arab Spring that has in the past sparked swift military backlash from the Syrian Regime. Syrian opposition flags are common, along with the Druze flag—the community to which the large majority of Suweida’s inhabitants belong. Meanwhile, several residents of Salkhad and nearby Shahbaa city broke into their local Baath party offices to either close down or take documents from an already closed building. These offices joined the fate of other Baath party offices throughout the province that have been shut down in towns including Melh, Arman, al-Qurayya, and Sama al-Bardan. In videos posted to social media, these protesters tore up pictures of Bashar al-Assad in a clear challenge and explicit rejection of the regime’s legitimacy, demanding its departure. In the events of this one week, Syrians following the protests could see a microcosm of the larger Suweida protest movement, now over a hundred days in and with no signs of stopping. Although the peaceful demonstrations in Suweida are no longer in the international spotlight since the outbreak of the Gaza war, the movement is remarkable for its longevity and continued open articulation of so many of the ideas that initially motivated Syrians to take to the streets in 2011, and that the Syrian regime has tried so desperately to repress in the intervening years. These protests are the means through which the demonstrators communicate with the world, and have become a symbol for many Syrians both within the country and outside of it. When they began in mid-August 2023, their unprecedented scope meant that they were almost immediately hailed as a second wave of the Syrian revolution. At the time, many wondered: Will Suweida be the turning point? Will this movement be able to oust the Assad regime and usher in a democratic political process that could make reconstruction possible, allowing the return of refugees and the displaced? While protesters in Suweida have not yet accomplished these admittedly audacious goals, neither have they been silenced or forced into submission in the intervening months. This in itself should be seen as a victory; the Suweida movement has become the longest, most organized, widespread, and participatory movement since the outbreak of the Syrian civil war, a mixed-gender civilian movement with broad and influential participation from all segments of Suweida’s society.
- Topic:
- Reform, Democracy, Protests, and Nonviolence
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Syria, and Suwayda
194. New Poll Sheds Light on Saudi Views of Israel-Hamas War
- Author:
- Catherine Cleveland and David Pollock
- Publication Date:
- 12-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- AWashington Institute poll conducted from November 14 to December 6, a nationally representative sample of 1,000 Saudi citizens measured how Saudi attitudes have shifted due to the Israel-Hamas war. According to responses, the Saudi popular attitude towards the outcome of the war is clear: the overwhelming majority (91%) express agreement with the statement that “despite the destruction and loss of life, this war in Gaza is a win for the Palestinians, Arabs, and Muslims.” And as for the role of the broader Arab world, almost all (96%) agree with the proposal that “Arab countries should immediately break all diplomatic, political, economic, and any other contacts with Israel, in protest against its military action in Gaza.” Polling during a war is likely to produce more volatile results as circumstances shift quickly on the ground—during the current polling period, for instance, the Israel-Hamas war had several major shifts, including a temporary ceasefire from November 24-30 and the subsequent expansion of Israel’s incursions into southern Gaza. However, comparisons with Saudi polling fielded in August can help provide a barometer as to just how sharply this conflict has, at least temporarily, shifted certain attitudes, and how little it has moved others. While Hamas as a movement remains unpopular among the majority of Saudis—in contrast to a new trend of widespread popular support in countries like Lebanon, Jordan, and Egypt—just 16% of Saudis say that “Hamas should stop calling for the destruction of Israel, and instead accept a permanent two-state solution to the conflict based on the 1967 borders.” Nor do most believe that Hamas’s attack on October 7 targeted Israeli civilians—the overwhelming majority of Saudis (95%) responded that Hamas did not actually kill civilians when asked about whether they believed the Hamas killing of civilians was against Islam. This view is widespread across the eight countries polled by TWI, and similar results appear in a recently released poll of Palestinians from PSR. There, the overwhelming majority reported that they had not seen any videos of Hamas members committing atrocities, and only 10% of Palestinians (17% of Gazans and 5% of West Bankers) stated that they believed that Hamas committed war crimes in the current war, in comparison to 95% who say the same about Israel. While the majority of Saudis continue to express a negative opinion of Hamas, the Israel-Hamas war has generated a significant boost in its popularity. There has been a thirty point shift in positive attitudes towards Hamas, from just 10% in August to 40% in November/December. Responses in the most recent poll, alongside those in 2014 and 2021, demonstrate the increased popularity Hamas achieves among some Saudis during or in the immediate aftermath of conflict between Hamas and Israel, along with its likely disappearance over time. In the aftermath of the 2021 Hamas-Israel conflict, for instance, five years of steadily decreasing popularity in Saudi Arabia suddenly reversed, though just to a quarter (23%) of the total population.
- Topic:
- Public Opinion, Conflict, Hamas, and Polls
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, and Gulf Nations
195. What Does the War in Gaza Mean for Jordan's National Security?
- Author:
- Saud Al-Sharafat
- Publication Date:
- 12-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- As the war between Israel and Hamas continues, focus is turned towards the Gaza Strip and Israel proper. Although the ongoing hostilities will eventually die down or cease altogether, the lasting impacts of the war on the broader region are still unknown. Nowhere is this truer than in neighboring Jordan. When Hamas launched its attack on October 7, it had an immediate impact on the Jordanian street and the country’s national security. Despite the chaotic and passionate outpouring of emotion among the public, bilateral cooperation between Jordan and the United States can contribute to assisting the conflicting parties in ultimately achieving peace and security.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, National Security, Conflict, and Regional Security
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Palestine, Gaza, and Jordan
196. Civil Society in Tunisia: Resetting Western Policy Expectations
- Author:
- Sabina Henneberg, Amy Hawthorne, and Jean-Louis Romanet Perroux
- Publication Date:
- 01-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- On January 23, The Washington Institute held a virtual Policy Forum with Sabina Henneberg, Amy Hawthorne, and Jean-Louis Romanet Perroux. Henneberg is the Institute’s Soref Fellow and author of its new study Civil Society in Tunisia: Resetting Expectations. Hawthorne is deputy director for research at the Project on Middle East Democracy (POMED). Perroux is director of the Tunisia-based North African Policy Initiative. The following is a rapporteur’s summary of their remarks.
- Topic:
- Civil Society, Reform, Democracy, and Economy
- Political Geography:
- North Africa and Tunisia
197. Egypt’s Economic Freefall Provides an Opening for U.S. Assistance—and Leverage
- Author:
- Ben Fishman
- Publication Date:
- 01-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- As Secretary of State Antony Blinken prepares to visit Cairo on January 29-30, Egypt’s economy has been busy plummeting to new lows. Part of the blame can be laid on the twin shocks of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Ukraine war, which disproportionately affected the country due to its heavy reliance on threatened resources such as wheat and tourism revenue from Russia and Ukraine. Yet the bulk of its struggles can be attributed to Cairo’s broad economic mismanagement under President Abdul Fattah al-Sisi, which has included everything from currency manipulation to misplaced spending priorities, wasteful megaprojects, and undue state and military control over the economy. Since March 2022, Egypt’s currency has lost half its value and now stands at 30 pounds to the U.S. dollar—a drop spurred by the flight of dollars and the IMF’s requirement to adopt a flexible exchange rate. As a result, official inflation reached nearly 22% in December, fifteen points higher than it was at the end of 2021. Shortages are now frequent, and prices for basic goods have soared by nearly 40%. The rising cost of essential bread in particular will be difficult to maintain much longer. Meanwhile, the debt-to-GDP ratio has risen to 95%, with a record $100 billion in loan payments due over the next four years. Egypt’s 2022-23 budget allocates over 50% to debt servicing and loan repayments, and this sky-high figure will only increase further over time because the loans are dollar-denominated.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Human Rights, Foreign Aid, Reform, and Economy
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, North Africa, Egypt, and United States of America
198. Earthquake in Syria and Turkey: U.S. Policy Implications
- Author:
- Can Selcuki, Amany Qaddour, Soner Cagaptay, and Andrew J. Tabler
- Publication Date:
- 02-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- A panel of experts offers on-the-ground insights from the disaster zone and discusses the political and policy consequences of the still-unfolding humanitarian crisis.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Natural Disasters, and Earthquake
- Political Geography:
- Turkey, Middle East, and Syria
199. To Prevent the PA from Unraveling, Address Internal Reform
- Author:
- Ghaith al-Omari
- Publication Date:
- 02-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Last year was one of the bloodiest in the West Bank since the second Palestinian intifada two decades ago, and 2023 is already on track to surpass it. Worse yet, the latest surge of violence comes at a time of exceptional fragility within the Palestinian Authority. Much of this fragility can be attributed to Israeli actions that chip away at the PA’s credibility and effectiveness—a fact driven home by Israel’s deadly February 22 raid in Nablus (see below). Yet the PA’s poor governance and political ossification are key contributors as well, as leaders in Ramallah steadily lose control over parts of the West Bank in a vicious cycle of instability and ever-eroding legitimacy. If this trajectory continues, the PA might even run the risk of unraveling altogether. As the United States seeks diplomatic ways to restore calm and curb escalatory policies on both sides, it should pay closer attention to domestic Palestinian factors that contribute to these damaging trends.
- Topic:
- Security, Corruption, Diplomacy, Reform, Democracy, and Palestinian Authority
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, and Palestine
200. Can Federalism Work in Lebanon?
- Author:
- Robert Rabil
- Publication Date:
- 03-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- As Lebanon’s economic and socio-political conditions have spiraled downward since the rise and fractionalization of the 2019 popular protests—known as the October 17 Revolution—various proposals have emerged as to how to remedy the bankrupt and virtually failed state. All agree that the current outlook is grim; today, the Lebanese currency has lost almost all its value and the presidential seat is contested and remains vacant. Political elites are at loggerheads and blamed for robbing the state, society is polarized across intra- and inter-confessional lines, and poverty has reached a popular level not seen since the Great Famine of World War I. Among the proposed suggestions is the federal option, put as an alternative to the country’s confessional system. Such ideas are not new; in fact, the federal option had been championed and the subject of debate among mainly Christian politicians and parties prior to and during Lebanon’s civil war (1975-1990). President Camille Chamoun (1952-1958) offered a detailed plan for a federal Lebanon; the Lebanese Front, representing mainly Maronite aspirations, likewise presented a federal project during the Lebanon National Dialogue in Lausanne in 1984; and president-elect Bashir Gemayel, assassinated in 1982, toyed with the idea of federalism. However, Lebanon’s civil war ended when the antagonistic parties signed the Document of National Reconciliation of 1989, also known as the Taif Agreement, which introduced administrative decentralization instead of federalism. And while the agreement ended the civil war, it subsequently ushered in an era of Lebanese politics marked by the Syrian occupation of Beirut until 2005 and the rise of the Islamist Shia party Hezbollah, effectively building a state within a state and commanding a militia more or less better equipped than the Lebanese Armed Forces. Meanwhile, Lebanon’s political elites entered into a Faustian pact with Hezbollah under which they legitimized the ‘Party of God’ in exchange for turning a blind eye to their theft of the state. It is this bargain that has brought Lebanon to its almost total collapse as a state and a nation.
- Topic:
- Security, Politics, Reform, Shia, and Federalism
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Lebanon