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22. Cost of Aging
- Author:
- Ronald Lee and Andrew Mason
- Publication Date:
- 03-2017
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- In advanced economies around the world, population growth is slowing down and populations are growing older. Economic growth is also slowing, at least in part because of the slow growth of the labor force and of populations as a whole—despite immigration. Many empirical studies have found that gross domestic product (GDP) growth slows roughly one to one with declines in labor-force and population growth—a disquieting prospect for the United States and for advanced economies in Asia and Europe. If there are fewer workers to support a growing elderly population and worker productivity remains the same, either consumption must be reduced or labor supply increased—for example, through later retirement. By 2050, the projected slowdown in growth of the labor supply could lead to a drop in consumption of 25 percent in China, 9 percent in the United States, and 13 percent in other high-income countries. The situation could be improved, however, by a rise in labor-force productivity. In fact, standard growth models predict that slower population growth will lead to rising output and wages per worker. The underlying question is whether this higher output per worker will be sufficient to offset the rise in the number of dependents per worker as the population ages. To help answer this question, this article looks more closely at how economic activity varies by age, drawing on national transfer accounts, which measure how people at various ages produce, consume, and save resources. This analysis shows that GDP and national income growth will most certainly slow down as populations age, but the effect on individuals—as measured by per capita income and consumption—may be quite different.
- Topic:
- International Relations and Global Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
23. The First Hundred Days: Trump Meets Asia...and Reality
- Author:
- June Teufel Dreyer
- Publication Date:
- 05-2017
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Foreign Policy Research Institute
- Abstract:
- The first 100 days of a president’s term—the “honeymoon period,” during which his power and influence are believed to be their greatest—are, whether rightly or wrongly, regarded as a predictor of a president’s success during the remainder of his term. Given the often bombastic tone of Candidate Trump’s campaign rhetoric, it was to be expected that the foreign powers against whom much of his vitriol was directed would seek to challenge the determination of President Trump to live up to his promises. And so it has been.
- Topic:
- International Relations and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
24. A Renewed Commitment to American Commercial Diplomacy
- Author:
- Charles A. Ford
- Publication Date:
- 09-2016
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Council of American Ambassadors
- Abstract:
- The United States is the world’s leading exporter, the world’s leading importer, and the world’s primary source and destination of funds for foreign investment. Our position as the best place in the world to do business—the most reliable in which to buy, the most lucrative in which to sell, and the safest and surest in which to invest or to raise capital—is the cause, not an effect of American global leadership. Protecting and expanding the US role as the world’s supplier and customer of choice for goods, services, ideas, capital, and entrepreneurial energy should be a foreign policy objective second only to securing the homeland.”
- Topic:
- International Relations, Diplomacy, International Political Economy, and Geopolitics
- Political Geography:
- America and Global Focus
25. Primakov Readings
- Author:
- Tatyana Alekseeva
- Publication Date:
- 01-2016
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Rethinking Russia
- Abstract:
- The International Primakov Readings Forum took place November 29-30, 2016, in commemoration of Yevgeny Primakov. The meeting was organized by the Russian Chamber of Commerce and Industry and the Primakov Institute of World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO led by Alexander Dynkin) and was backed by the World Trade Center, the Russian Science Foundation, the Council for Foreign and Defense Policy, and the University of Pennsylvania. In his address to the Forum, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin argued that Primakov had succeeded in predicting the events unfolding in today’s world, especially in the Middle East. As the Head of State put it, “Actually, I was always taking heed of Primakov’s assessments, as he was a wise and astute diplomat. I trusted him and asked to accomplish responsible and sensitive missions rather than ordered him”. Besides, the Primakov Readings Conference brought together Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, Chair of the Federation Council Valentina Matvienko, and President’s foreign policy adviser Yuri Ushakov who delivered an opening speech. The Forum was also attended by most leading experts on international relations. The Rethinking Russia Think Tank presents the comment of Tatyana Alekseeva, a participant of the Primakov Readings Forum.
- Topic:
- International Relations and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Russia and Global Focus
26. Russophrenia: western elites ignore their own citizens’ anger and blame Russia instead
- Author:
- Bryan MacDonald
- Publication Date:
- 01-2016
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Rethinking Russia
- Abstract:
- At the start of 1917, rumours reached London that something was stirring in Petrograd (now St. Petersburg). As a result, the concerned Prime Minister, David Lloyd George, urgently dispatched Lord Milner, a diplomat of some repute, to the Russian capital. His Lordship visited the Tsar and spoke to ministers and members of the Duma, who informed him that enemies of the state were spreading groundless yarns. Sadly, being a creature of his class, Milner believed that only the elites mattered so he neglected to consult any of the general public. Thus, cocooned in his bubble, the peer reported to London that there was nothing the government could not handle and no need to expect no major changes. However, the same British travelling party also included Lloyd George’s private secretary Philip Kerr. A little more clued in, Kerr walked the streets and interviewed the plain folk. Armed with their predictions, he sent a telegram to Downing Street which asserted that Russia was on the verge of an unstoppable revolution. As it happens, the man who stepped out of the comfort zone was right because Nikolai II was shorn of his crown before the British delegation made it home. We know this story because many years later the ‘Welsh Wizard,’ Lloyd George, revealed the details to Ivan Maisky, the Soviet ambassador to London. And almost a hundred years later, it is a salutary lesson in the dangers of the establishment refusing to acknowledge ordinary people’s concerns when evaluating the causes of political upheaval.
- Topic:
- International Relations, International Security, and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Russia and Global Focus
27. The everyday and the existential: how Clinton and Trump challenge transatlantic relations
- Author:
- Jeremy Shapiro
- Publication Date:
- 10-2016
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
- Abstract:
- The transatlantic relationship is likely to face difficult challenges whatever the result of the US election. If Trump wins he will launch a revolutionary presidency — pulling back from NATO and other security guarantees, undermining key parts of the global free trade regime and building closer relations with strong-man leaders than allies. Even if Hillary is elected the transatlantic relationship could still face difficult albeit more everyday challenges. Her poor relations with Moscow, exacerbated by gender issues, could threaten transatlantic unity on Russia. Europe would be foolish not to learn lessons from the experience of Trump’s candidacy. Trump represents only an extreme version of a growing feeling in the United States that, in a time of relative decline, the country is getting a raw deal from its allies. The EU should not be complacent in assuming that the transatlantic relationship will continue as it is and should begin to take more responsibility for its own defence and build resilience against a potentially more self-interested US.
- Topic:
- International Relations and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
28. Reasons for Russia’s War on Ukraine and its foreseeable consequences on Latin America
- Author:
- Fernando Petrella
- Publication Date:
- 06-2012
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Argentine Council for International Relations (CARI)
- Abstract:
- 1. Is the rise of emerging powers the rise of the "rest" (as Fareed Zakaria has put it) or, the somewhat more intriguing possibility, the rise of the "different"? 2. Is there a chance to build a partnership between the traditional powers - the "western constellation", mainly the G7 countries - and the emerging countries, (the "rest"; the "different"), or can we only hope for a mere "coexistence", as we seem to have today?
- Topic:
- International Relations, G7, and Emerging Powers
- Political Geography:
- Latin America and Global Focus
29. Beyond Sovereignty: The transformation of the Nation State
- Author:
- Jody Jensen
- Publication Date:
- 08-2011
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Argentine Council for International Relations (CARI)
- Abstract:
- As interdependence and interconnection on the planet become ever-more apparent, new challenges and conflicts arise for individuals and for the role of government.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Sovereignty, and State
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
30. Security Matters
- Author:
- Centre for European Security Studies
- Publication Date:
- 01-2010
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Centre for European Security Studies
- Abstract:
- Central Asia presents a broad spectrum of security challenges. These range from religious terrorism, organised crime and simmering ethnic quarrels to endemic corruption, environmental decline and a disintegrating infrastructure. Besides, the danger of instability is heightened by a lurking receptiveness to religious extremism among returned migrants.
- Topic:
- International Relations and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
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