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1. The Role of Umbrella States in the Global Nuclear Order

Author:
Tytti Erästö
Publication Date:
06-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Abstract:
This paper focuses on countries under extended nuclear deterrence arrangements, or ‘umbrella’ states. The paper explores the ways in which umbrella states both in the Asia-Pacific region and in Europe have supported prevailing nuclear deterrence practices or distanced themselves from such practices. While there is a tendency for these countries to side with their nuclear-armed patron on matters related to nuclear weapons and nuclear disarmament norms, at times they have taken steps away from the allied mainstream position by advocating for anti-nuclear weapon policies. As long as extended deterrence has a nuclear dimension, allies will need to balance between normative pressures to support nuclear disarmament and alliance commitments that require at least passive support for nuclear deterrence practices.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, Treaties and Agreements, Alliance, and Deterrence
Political Geography:
Europe and Asia-Pacific

2. Tritium Troubles: The Politics of Fukushima’s Treated Water Release in the Asia-Pacific and Beyond

Author:
Aurelio Insisa
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Following approval from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Japan has begun to release into the Pacific Ocean treated radioactive water from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant on 24 August. The power plant was the site of the nuclear disaster that occurred on 11 March 2011 as a consequence of the Tōhoku earthquake and tsunami. Water has been continuously pumped into the nuclear power plant to cool down the reactors’ fuel rods since the disaster. However, current treatment methods are unable to eliminate tritium, a radioactive isotope of hydrogen, resulting in the storage of tons of contaminated water in thousands of tanks on site. The current plans consequently entail the release of more than a million tons of tritium-contaminated water. The Japanese authorities, the IAEA and a majority of scientists concur that the concentration of tritium in the stored water falls within the safety limits.[1] Nevertheless, the release of water containing tritium from the site has encountered opposition from environmental activists and ordinary citizens within and outside Japan. It has also faced criticism from a minority of scientists who argue that the consequences of the release remain unpredictable. This cross-border measure has highlighted, and somehow even exacerbated, political tensions in the Asia-Pacific. Indeed, it has occurred within a regional political order that remains in flux, featuring rampant competition between the US and China, Japan’s own ongoing overhaul of national defence and a consequential tilt in the foreign policy of South Korea after the 2022 elections in favour of Washington and Tokyo. Furthermore, the media clamour surrounding the water release has also extended beyond the region, fuelling the public debate on nuclear energy in several Western countries, including Italy.
Topic:
Environment, Natural Disasters, Nuclear Energy, and Radiation
Political Geography:
Japan, China, South Korea, Asia-Pacific, and Fukushima

3. Biden’s Foreign Policy Casts a Long Shadow

Author:
Riccardo Alcaro
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Upon taking office as US president, Joseph R. Biden vowed he would bring the United States back to the centre of the international stage after the erratic course followed by Donald Trump. One year later, it can hardly be said that he has been successful.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Transatlantic Relations, Donald Trump, and Joe Biden
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Iran, North America, Asia-Pacific, and United States of America

4. Drug trafficking in the Pacific Islands: The impact of transnational crime

Author:
Jose Sousa-Santos
Publication Date:
02-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
The Pacific “drug highway” has spilled over into domestic markets for illicit drug consumption and production in the Pacific Islands region. Drug trafficking has evolved significantly with the rise of local actors in transnational criminal networks. Capacity shortfalls and a disconnect between regional law enforcement infrastructure and national law enforcement agencies undermine trust and are detrimental to intelligence sharing and interoperability in cross-border policing efforts. The deportation policies of Australia, New Zealand, and the United States are exacerbating crime and addiction within Pacific nations. They undermine the policy objectives of development partners in the region and will need urgent review.
Topic:
Crime, Non State Actors, Law Enforcement, Transnational Actors, and Drug Trafficking
Political Geography:
Australia, New Zealand, Asia-Pacific, and United States of America

5. The 2022 Philippine Elections Primer: A Democratic Citizenship Perspective

Author:
Anthony Lawrence Borja and Ian Jayson Hecita
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:
In regards to the 2022 presidential and vice-presidential elections in Philippines, Anthony Lawrence Borja and Ian Jayson Hecita, Assistant Professorial Lecturers at the Department of Political Science and Development Studies of De La Salle University, analyze the issue of democratic citizenship. The authors state that the prospects of democratization in the Philippines are weak due to resurgent illiberalism among citizens and chronic weaknesses among key liberal democratic institutions. Therefore the importance of promoting strong democratic citizenship is highlighted by the authors as they argue that the absence of an active citizenry, ability to effectively participate in the policy process, leads to the doom of democratization.
Topic:
Elections, Democracy, and Citizenship
Political Geography:
Philippines and Asia-Pacific

6. The 2022 Philippine Elections: Religion and Politics amid Democratic Uncertainty Commentary·Issue Briefing | 2022-04-19

Author:
David T. Buckley
Publication Date:
04-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:
The Philippines is the only Catholic country in Asia and as such, the majority of Filipinos are adherents to Catholicism. Professor David T. Buckley from the University of Louisville discusses the relationship between democracy and religion in the Philippines. It is evident from recent history that religious networks are seen as the main guardians of Philippine democracy, requiring candidates to be morally honest and serve the country. However, Professor Buckley states that, though not the only cause, religion also played an important role in democratic transition. He further suggests that religious networks must respond to a new political reality that has changed both religiously and politically since the mythologized days of the 1980s.
Topic:
Religion, Elections, Democracy, and Catholic Church
Political Geography:
Philippines and Asia-Pacific

7. Violence Targeting Civilians Increased During Elections in Papua New Guinea

Author:
Regina Chung, Laura Sorica, Elliott Bynum, and Josh Satre
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:
Violence targeting civilians in Papua New Guinea rose in the lead-up to and during the campaign, voting, and vote counting periods for the country’s recent national elections. When voting began on 4 July, mob violence at polling stations became deadly amid allegations of voter fraud, missing ballots, and disputed counting. With a decentralized political system that contributes to clientelism, long-standing communal and clan conflicts also reignited during the elections.
Topic:
Political Violence, Elections, and Civilians
Political Geography:
Asia-Pacific and Papua New Guinea

8. The AUKUS Partnership: A Wake-up Call for Europe

Author:
Gabriele Abbondanza
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Now that some dust has settled over the surprise announcement of AUKUS on 16 September, it is possible to analyse the implications of this partnership not just for its members, but for Europe as well.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Politics, European Union, Partnerships, Maritime, and Institutions
Political Geography:
Europe, Asia, and Asia-Pacific

9. US-Philippines: Resetting the Security Alliance?

Author:
Julius Caesar Trajano
Publication Date:
02-2021
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
Despite Duterte’s desire to shift Philippine security policy away from its treaty alliance with the US, Manila remains a close American ally. Key domestic, strategic and humanitarian factors actually make the alliance healthier. The Biden administration might just wait for Duterte to finish his term in a year's time.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and Alliance
Political Geography:
Philippines, North America, Asia-Pacific, and United States of America

10. A Changing Climate and Its Implications for Health and Migration in the Pacific: Examples from the Marshall Islands

Author:
Laura Brewington, Kelli Kokame, and Nancy Lewis
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Climate change impacts--temperature and rainfall changes, extreme events, sea-level rise, and ocean acidification--are amplifying health risks in vulnerable populations throughout the Pacific Islands, and also influence their mobility. This nexus of climate change, health, and migration is evident in the experience of the Marshall Islands. The nation and its population are dispersed over almost two million square kilometers of ocean, with sizeable diasporas in the United States. Climate impacts in the Marshall Islands exacerbate ongoing health threats, such as limited drinking water supplies, inadequate nutrition, and poor infrastructure. The out-migration of Marshallese is largely motivated by health, economic, education, and environmental reasons; therefore, planning for migrant movements should include adaptation strategies that also reduce health risks. A better understanding of how health, mobility, and climate change interact will help shape policy responses and provide useable climate information for focused, timely interventions that maximize health and well-being among populations in motion.
Topic:
Climate Change, Health, Migration, and Infrastructure
Political Geography:
Asia-Pacific and Marshall Islands

11. The Drug War Rages on in the Philippines: New Data on the Civilian Toll, State Responsibility, and Shifting Geographies of Violence

Author:
Roudabeh Kishi and Tomas Buenaventura
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:
New supplemental data for the Philippines add nearly 1,000 events and more than 1,100 fatalities to the ACLED dataset for the period of 2016 to the present, expanding our coverage of the country’s war on drugs. This report analyzes key trends from the data and sheds new light on the drug war’s civilian death toll. Download the data and check the Resource Library for more information about ACLED methodology.
Topic:
State Violence, Drugs, Civilians, and Data
Political Geography:
Philippines and Asia-Pacific

12. Translating tension: Chinese-language media in Australia

Author:
Fan Yang
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
Chinese-language media outlets in Australia are more likely to support Australian government policy than Chinese government policy when reporting on tensions in the Australia–China relationship, but editorialise to soften or remove criticism of China and the Chinese government. This is, in part, because Chinese-language media outlets in Australia produce little original content, and instead translate and reproduce the majority of their content from Australian, rather than Chinese, news sources. Chinese-language media professionals say they prefer to re-publish Australian content because this helps Chinese migrants integrate into society. However, self-censorship is embedded in these media organisations’ editorial processes. This is particularly the case for Chinese-language media outlets whose content is distributed to mainland China via WeChat, news apps, and websites. Outlets self-censor out of concerns for a loss of market share and reprisals from Beijing.
Topic:
Diaspora, Media, News Analysis, and Translation
Political Geography:
China, Australia, and Asia-Pacific

13. Malaysia`s emergency ordinance and the clampdown on public discourse

Author:
Imran Shamsunahar
Publication Date:
06-2021
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:
Upon the demise of the controversial Anti-Fake News Act of 2018, Malaysia witnessed the emergence of a similar mechanism to target fake news amid the COVID-19 crisis. The Emergency (Essential Powers) (No. 2) Ordinance 2021 was designed to combat the rise of fake news, which bears grave consequences to public health such as stifling COVID-19 vaccinations. However, upon its declaration, it has only stirred controversy. Imran Shamsunahar, Executive for External Relations at the Institute for Democracy and Economic Affairs (IDEAS), explains that a recent series of unwarranted events associated with the pandemic led many to believe that the ordinance serves to stifle public discourse regarding the state of emergency, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the government’s poor management of the crisis. Having failed to draw the line between ‘fake news’ and its counterpart, the ordinance was subject to criticism from not only civil society organizations but also politicians. He argues that in order for the government to properly engage with the public amid the crisis, it must find ways that align with values such as transparency rather than through means that are restrictive and repressive.
Topic:
Elections, Democracy, COVID-19, and Fake News
Political Geography:
Malaysia and Asia-Pacific

14. The Pandemic Situation in Myanmar is Getting Worse Under the Military Government

Author:
Khine Win
Publication Date:
08-2021
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
East Asia Institute (EAI)
Abstract:
Amid the ongoing military rule in Myanmar, the public health crisis has been reaching new heights. According to Khine Win, founder and director of Sandhi Governance Institute, hopes were high among citizens in Myanmar for a healthcare system that could aptly combat the COVID-19 pandemic upon the election of the NLD in November 2020. However, progress has been reversed and is yet stalled under the elongated military rule. Despite dire civil health and poverty predictions issued by the UNDP, World Food Programme, and other international organizations, the military government turned a blind eye to their warnings, exacerbating the ongoing health crisis. COVID-19 cases have been increasing exponentially, with the number of actual COVID-19 cases expected to be higher than official numbers. News that military rule is expected to continue into 2023 paints a dull future for the public health situation in Myanmar.
Topic:
Governance, Democracy, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Military
Political Geography:
Myanmar and Asia-Pacific

15. Youth, God, and Empire: Interview With Dr. Joy Schulz

Author:
Joy Schulz
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The Toynbee Prize Foundation
Abstract:
With young activists like Malala Yousafzai, Greta Thunberg, and Xiuhtezcatl Roske-Martinez coming to the fore of headlines and social movements, the present has proven itself to be an opportune moment to reassess the role of youths in historical change. In this vein, Dr. Joy Schulz's book Hawaiian By Birth: Missionary Children, Bicultural Identity, and U.S. Colonialism in the Pacific (2017) stands out as crucial reading. Emphasizing the centrality of American missionary children in the domination of the Hawaiian Islands during the second half of nineteenth century, Schulz's analysis exposes the potency of youth power through a series of chapters that trace the development of these young evangelists into colonizers and revolutionaries. In the process, she draws attention to the complexities born at the intersections of childhood and empire and underscores the capacity of children to record their own histories in ways that may complement or complicate adult ambitions. Dr. Schulz and I discuss these themes, and the challenges and opportunities that children present as the subjects of transnational histories.
Topic:
Religion, Political Activism, Children, Colonialism, Youth, and Empire
Political Geography:
Asia-Pacific and Global Focus

16. The Costs of Covid: Australia’s Economic Prospects in a Wounded World

Author:
John Edwards
Publication Date:
08-2020
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
Despite Victoria’s second wave of infection, Australia’s economic recovery from the coronavirus is underway. The bitter aftermath includes high and rising unemployment, vastly increased government debt, and a markedly less congenial global economy. Though formidable, the fiscal challenge is well within Australia’s means, especially if the Reserve Bank remains willing to acquire and hold Australian government debt. It may need to do so anyway to suppress an unwelcome appreciation of the Australian dollar in a world where major central banks are committed to low long term interest rates. Australia’s increasing integration into the East Asia economic community offsets the drag from the major advanced economies, but the US–China quarrel and the dislocation of global trading and investment relationships it threatens heightens the tension between Australia’s economic and security choices.
Topic:
Debt, Economy, Fiscal Policy, Unemployment, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
China, Asia, Australia, North America, Asia-Pacific, and United States of America

17. The Australia–India Strategic Partnership: Accelerating Security Cooperation in the Indo–Pacific

Author:
Dhruva Jaishankar
Publication Date:
09-2020
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
India and Australia have successfully managed to overcome prior inhibitions about security cooperation. Since 2000, the two countries have significantly improved their strategic coordination, military interoperability, and maritime cooperation, motivated by China’s rise and behaviour, faltering regional security institutions, and uncertainty about the United States’ role. Today, India–Australia security relations comprise regular military exercises, professional exchanges, operational coordination, and nascent defence technology cooperation. But the two countries’ different capabilities, priorities, and strategic circumstances will have to be overcome if relations are to deepen. Future priorities should include institutionalising bilateral and multilateral coordination mechanisms, improving military interoperability, deepening defence technology collaboration, and broadening relations to give ballast to the security relationship.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, International Cooperation, and Partnerships
Political Geography:
China, India, Australia, Asia-Pacific, United States of America, and Indo-Pacific

18. The Economic Impact of COVID-19 on Asia-Pacific

Author:
Oxford Economics
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Oxford Economics
Abstract:
In this report, Oxford Economics looks at the impact the COVID-19 pandemic on the economies of Asia-Pacific. We look at the impact of lockdown measures to contain the pandemic in China and other economies in the region, and their toll on business and households. As the COVID-19 pandemic continues around the globe, governments, investors, business and households are beginning to understand the financial and economic costs more clearly. In this report we examine the channels through which COVID-19 has impacted on the economies of the Asia-Pacific region. We explore the economic cost of lockdown measures, particularly so in China, as well as knock-on effects through supply-chains, tourism, and financial markets. We set out our forecasts for an historically-sharp downturn in the first half of 2020, but potential for a rapid recovery starting later this year and into 2021. Finally, we examine a downside scenario, simulated using our Global Economic Model, in which lockdown measures spread globally and the economic cost is even greater than in our baseline forecast.
Topic:
Economics, Public Health, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Asia and Asia-Pacific

19. Mobilizing the Pacific Diaspora: A Key Component of Disaster Resilience

Author:
Siautu Alefaio
Publication Date:
09-2020
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Of all the earth’s regions, the Pacific is one of the most prone to natural disasters. Climate-related disasters such as floods, droughts, and tropical cyclones make the headlines, along with other natural disasters such as earthquakes, tsunamis, and volcanic eruptions. These may be accompanied by crises in public health. Today, many Pacific Island countries rely heavily on government relief and international aid when they face a disaster. Traditional sources of resilience can still play an important role, however, both within local communities and within the broader diaspora of Pacific communities in Aotearoa-New Zealand, Australia, and the US. A better understanding of Pacific cultures from within and a better recognition of the role of the Pacific diaspora and of churches in Pacific communities would also help improve development efforts and disaster response.
Topic:
Development, Humanitarian Aid, Natural Disasters, and Diaspora
Political Geography:
Australia, New Zealand, Asia-Pacific, and United States of America

20. Fire and Rain: The Legacy of Hurricane Lane in Hawai'i

Author:
Alison D. Nugent, Ryan J. Longman, Clay Trauernicht, Matthew P. Lucas, Henry F. Diaz, and Thomas W. Giambelluca
Publication Date:
08-2020
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Hurricane Lane, which struck the Hawaiian islands on 22–25 August 2018, presented a textbook example of the compounding hazards that can be produced by a single storm. Over a four-day period, the island of Hawaiʻi received an average 17 inches of rainfall. One location received 57 inches, making Hurricane Lane the wettest tropical storm ever recorded in the state and the second wettest ever recorded in the US. At the same time, three wildfires on the island of Maui and one on Oʻahu burned nearly 3,000 acres of abandoned agricultural land. As the global climate warms, the number and strength of hurricanes is expected to increase, both in Hawaiʻi and in the Pacific region generally. A better understanding of the relationship between hurricanes and global climate change is critical in order to predict the vulnerability of people and resources during a severe weather event and to plan an appropriate course of action.
Topic:
Climate Change, Natural Disasters, Natural Resources, and Crisis Management
Political Geography:
North America, Asia-Pacific, and Hawaii

21. An Aging Population in Asia Creates Economic Challenges

Author:
Andew Mason, Sang-Hyop Lee, and Donghyun Park
Publication Date:
05-2020
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Elderly populations in Asia are expanding more quickly than other age groups. This shift in population age structure had two major impacts: demand for income support for the elderly will rise because their labor income tends to be extremely low; and gross domestic product (GDP) and other aggregate economic indicators will grow more slowly as growth in the effective labor force declines. In countries where government programs play an important role in old-age support, tax rates will have to rise or benefits will have to be curtailed or both—all options with significant political costs.
Topic:
Demographics, Labor Issues, Population, GDP, and Economy
Political Geography:
Asia and Asia-Pacific

22. China is Not Conducting Debt Trap Diplomacy in the Pacific--At Least Not Yet

Author:
Jonathan Pryke
Publication Date:
03-2020
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
In an atmosphere of heightened geostrategic competition, China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has raised questions about the risk of debt problems in less-developed countries. Such risks are especially worrying for the small and fragile economies of the Pacific. A close look at the evidence suggests that China has not been engaged in debt-trap diplomacy in the Pacific, at least not so far. Nonetheless, if future Chinese lending continues on a business-as-usual basis, serious problems of debt sustainability will arise, and concerns about quality and corruption are valid.There have been recent signs that both China and Pacific Island governments recognize the need for reform. China needs to adopt formal lending rules similar to those of the multilateral development banks, providing more favorable terms to countries at greater risk of debt distress. Alternative approaches might include replacing or partially replacing EXIM loans with the interest-free loans and grants that the Chinese Ministry of Commerce already provides.
Topic:
Debt, Development, Diplomacy, Geopolitics, and Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)
Political Geography:
China, Asia, and Asia-Pacific

23. Indonesia's Economy: Between Growth and Stability

Author:
Roland Rajah
Publication Date:
08-2020
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
Indonesia has much economic potential but the trade-off between growth and stability continues to bind its growth ambitions. Indonesian economic policy continues to prioritise stability over growth but the adequacy of economic growth has become the bigger issue. President Joko Widodo’s commendable pro-growth efforts have so far only stabilised Indonesia’s trajectory rather than boost it. Doing better will require reforms to be calibrated to make the trade-off between growth and stability less binding while enhancing productivity.
Topic:
Government, International Trade and Finance, Economy, and Economic Growth
Political Geography:
Indonesia and Asia-Pacific

24. Alpine Environments under Threat in Hawai'i and New Zealand

Author:
Abby G. Frazier and Laura Brewington
Publication Date:
11-2019
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Of all the earth's environments, alpine regions are arguably the most vulnerable to climate change. This is especially true for alpine areas on islands. In both Hawai'i and New Zealand, about 11 percent of the land area is above the tree line, the definition of an alpine environment. In addition to climate change, these island ecosystems are particularly vulnerable to damage from human activity and the invasion of alien species.
Topic:
Climate Change and Environment
Political Geography:
New Zealand, Asia-Pacific, and Hawaii

25. Strengthening US Relations with ASEAN: A Critical Element of the US Indo-Pacific Strategy

Author:
East-West Wire
Publication Date:
10-2019
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
With a population of 650 million and an annual GDP of $2.8 trillion, ASEAN is a key component of the US Indo-Pacific Strategy. Two visitors to the East-West Center, Kavi Chongkittavorn and Anu Anwar, emphasized that the United States needs to take several steps to strengthen working relations with ASEAN. Priorities for the Trump administration include: Attend the annual ASEAN-sponsored East Asia Summit; Establish personal rapport with ASEAN leaders; Participate actively in all ASEAN-led mechanisms, including the ASEAN Regional Forum, the ASEAN Defense Ministerial Meeting Plus, and the Lower Mekong Initiative; Appoint an American envoy to ASEAN, a position that has been vacant for more than 30 months; Maintain the ASEAN-focused programs and activities initiated under previous US administrations; Expand educational, cultural, and youth programs; Strengthen the US-ASEAN security commitment, in particular maritime and cyber security.
Topic:
International Relations, Geopolitics, Donald Trump, and ASEAN
Political Geography:
North America, Asia-Pacific, United States of America, and Indo-Pacific

26. Ocean of Debt? Belt and Road and Debt Diplomacy in the Pacific

Author:
Roland Rajah, Alexandre Dayant, and Jonathan Pryke
Publication Date:
10-2019
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
China has not been engaged in debt trap diplomacy — at least not yet. China has not been the primary driver behind rising debt risks in the Pacific, although a continuation of business as usual would risk future debt problems in several countries. There is scope for a new Australian infrastructure financing facility to provide loans to the Pacific without causing debt problems, particularly as it has adopted key sustainable lending rules. Pacific nations have an opportunity to obtain more favourable financing from official development partners but care must be taken to avoid overly geopolitical aid.
Topic:
Debt, Development, Infrastructure, Geopolitics, Soft Power, and Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)
Political Geography:
China, Australia, and Asia-Pacific

27. Once More With Feeling: Russia and the Asia-Pacific

Author:
Bobo Lo
Publication Date:
08-2019
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
The rise of Asia is the central challenge of Vladimir Putin’s foreign policy, calling into question long-standing assumptions about Russia’s place in the world. Moscow is now more committed to engagement with the Asia-Pacific than it has ever been. This reflects belated recognition of the region’s critical importance in global affairs. Russia’s ambition to become a major player in the Asia-Pacific faces considerable hurdles. Overcoming them will depend on larger changes in its foreign policy mindset — an uncertain prospect at best.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Geopolitics, Economy, and Vladimir Putin
Political Geography:
Russia and Asia-Pacific

28. New Caledonia's Independence Referendum: Local and Regional Implications

Author:
Denise Fisher
Publication Date:
05-2019
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
As 30 years of peace agreements come to an end, stability in New Caledonia is now at risk. New Caledonia faces an uncertain future as it prepares for its last local elections under the Noumea Accord, and as it enters a four-year process ending 30 years of peace agreements. The continued stark ethnic divide over independence revealed in the November 2018 referendum, the first of potentially three such votes, revives old tensions and complicates essential discussions about future governance, which will have consequences for France, Melanesian neighbours and the wider region. While strategically Australia benefits from continued French regional engagement, its support should not be at any cost.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Elections, Political stability, and Referendum
Political Geography:
Australia, Asia-Pacific, New Caledonia, and Melanesia

29. New Caledonia's Independence Referendum: Local and Regional Implications

Author:
Denise Fisher
Publication Date:
05-2019
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
As 30 years of peace agreements come to an end, stability in New Caledonia is now at risk. New Caledonia faces an uncertain future as it prepares for its last local elections under the Noumea Accord, and as it enters a four-year process ending 30 years of peace agreements. The continued stark ethnic divide over independence revealed in the November 2018 referendum, the first of potentially three such votes, revives old tensions and complicates essential discussions about future governance, which will have consequences for France, Melanesian neighbours and the wider region. While strategically Australia benefits from continued French regional engagement, its support should not be at any cost.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Elections, Political stability, and Referendum
Political Geography:
Australia, Asia-Pacific, New Caledonia, and Melanesia

30. Politics in Indonesia: Resilient Elections, Defective Democracy

Author:
Ben Bland
Publication Date:
04-2019
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
he pressures on Indonesian democracy are not likely to abate under a second-term Jokowi or a Prabowo presidency. Incumbent President Joko Widodo is the front-runner to defeat long-time rival Prabowo Subianto in Indonesia’s fourth direct presidential election on 17 April. Constrained by compromises and knocked off balance by the rise of identity politics, if Jokowi wins a second (and final) term, he is unlikely to make significant progress on much-needed economic, legal, and political reforms. Despite these concerns, there is hope for the future with a new generation of politicians from outside the elite now seeking to follow Jokowi’s path to national office. Indonesia’s future will depend on how far they use their electoral mandates to shake up a defective system.
Topic:
Politics, Reform, Elections, and Democracy
Political Geography:
Indonesia, Australia, and Asia-Pacific

31. 'New' Malaysia: Four Key Challenges in the Near Term

Author:
James Chin
Publication Date:
03-2019
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
In the aftermath of Malaysia’s momentous regime change, the new government faces a number of challenges to implementing wholesale political reform. Malaysia’s new government will need to deal with several key issues in the next 12 months to establish itself as a ‘change and reform’ administration, namely the Malay/Bumiputra Agenda, the 1963 Malaysia Agreement (MA63), political Islam, and a clear timetable for transition of power. Each of these issues is crucial to Malaysia’s political stability in the near term and to laying the foundation for long-term institutional reforms. If these reforms are not handled properly, the new Pakatan Harapan (Alliance of Hope) administration under Mahathir may be a one-term government and the country could easily revert to the old regime.
Topic:
Government, Politics, Regime Change, Reform, and Political stability
Political Geography:
Malaysia and Asia-Pacific

32. Reinforcing Indonesia-Australia Defence Relations: The Case for Maritime Recalibration

Author:
Evan A. Laksmana
Publication Date:
10-2018
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
A maritime realignment of Australia–Indonesia defence relations could shape the broader Indo-Pacific security architecture and provide an additional strategic hedge for both countries. One of the key prerequisites for the implementation and sustainability of the newly announced Indonesia–Australia Comprehensive Strategic Partnership is the stabilisation of bilateral defence relations. To achieve such sustainability, bilateral defence engagement should focus on joint maritime challenges. Canberra should formulate long-term plans to assist the modernisation of Indonesia’s armed forces with a focus on maritime security operations, and should increase the number and scope of maritime exercises.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Military Strategy, Bilateral Relations, and Armed Forces
Political Geography:
Indonesia, Australia, and Asia-Pacific

33. Unregulated Population Migration and Other Future Drivers of Instability in the Pacific

Author:
Rita Parker
Publication Date:
07-2018
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
Potential drivers of unregulated population migration in the Pacific Islands require attention from regional governments including Australia. The challenges of unregulated population migration in the Pacific Islands region are the result of several push-pull factors and can lead to instability and insecurity in the region. Unregulated population migration in the Pacific Islands region has implications for more than one nation state and civil society and the balance of security and domestic stability can be disrupted. The challenge for policymakers is to recognise that drivers of unregulated population migration, including political or economic uncertainty, natural disasters, pandemics, climatic or environmental change, food or water scarcity, civil conflict, or organised crime, do not occur in isolation.
Topic:
Security, Government, Migration, Natural Disasters, Immigration, and Political stability
Political Geography:
Australia and Asia-Pacific

34. Getting Singapore in Shape: Economic Challenges and How to Meet Them

Author:
Manu Bhaskaran
Publication Date:
06-2018
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
Without bold adjustments, Singapore’s extraordinary economic performance may prove difficult to sustain. The Singapore economy retains many strengths but is facing growing challenges, including to its key regional hub status. Singapore’s ability to adjust effectively to these challenges may have weakened compared to the past. The major reason for this diminished capacity is that the policy responses required to support a successful adjustment may not be evolving quickly enough. Moreover, the capacity for companies to make more spontaneous bottom-up adjustments seems to be lacking.
Topic:
Government, Economy, Business, Economic Growth, Economic Policy, and Capacity
Political Geography:
Singapore, Southeast Asia, and Asia-Pacific

35. Instability in the Pacific Islands: A Status Report

Author:
Stewart Firth
Publication Date:
06-2018
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
Domestic developments in the Pacific Island states matter more than ever to Australia. The challenges to internal resilience in the Pacific Islands are both structural — in the form of issues arising from population growth, urbanisation, land, immigration, health, and gender relations — and particular to the political situation in each Island nation. The inability of Pacific states to match service provision in cities with their growing populations is a major challenge to resilience. Of all political issues in Papua New Guinea, loss of customary land is the most likely to provoke protest and conflict.
Topic:
Politics, Political stability, State Formation, and Services
Political Geography:
Australia, Australia/Pacific, Solomon Islands, Asia-Pacific, Vanuatu, Papua New Guinea, and Melanesia

36. Safeguarding Australia's Security Interests Through Closer Pacific Ties

Author:
Greg Colton
Publication Date:
04-2018
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
Greater Australian engagement in the Pacific Islands region is needed if Canberra wants to ensure regional stability and underpin Australia’s national security. Inconsistent engagement by Australia, the United States, France and New Zealand in the Pacific Islands region has created space that non-traditional powers have exploited to engage with sovereign Pacific Island states. There is an increasing risk of geostrategic competition in the region, particularly with the growing influence of China and the economic leverage it holds over some indebted Pacific Island nations. The Australian Government should pursue a deliberate strategy of forging stronger links with its traditional partners in the region, and more equitable partnerships with its Pacific Island neighbours, if it is to underpin regional stability and strengthen Australia’s national security.
Topic:
International Relations, National Security, Regional Cooperation, Geopolitics, and Economy
Political Geography:
China, France, Australia, Asia-Pacific, and United States of America

37. The US in the Asia-Pacific: Continuing rebalance towards a region in flux

Author:
Bart Gaens
Publication Date:
11-2016
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The evolving Asia-Pacific region is marked by increased balancing strategies, the forging of flexible partnerships between countries, and economic interconnectedness. In order to retain a central role and achieve a new equilibrium, the US will need to adapt to these changes.
Topic:
International Cooperation, International Affairs, Geopolitics, and Political stability
Political Geography:
America and Asia-Pacific