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252. The Return of US Leadership in Europe: Biden and the Russia Crisis
- Author:
- Riccardo Alcaro
- Publication Date:
- 02-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- In dealing with Russia’s aggressive policies towards Ukraine, US President Joe Biden has put up a powerful display of competent crisis management. While it may not be enough to stop President Vladimir Putin from escalating, Biden’s policy has nonetheless re-affirmed US leadership in Europe.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Transatlantic Relations, Vladimir Putin, and Joe Biden
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Turkey, Ukraine, Caucasus, Balkans, and United States of America
253. A Digital Euro in Search of an Identity
- Author:
- Franco Passacantando
- Publication Date:
- 02-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- The recent proliferation of crypto assets and other digital currencies is rapidly transforming the financial industry and the very concept of money. In response to these developments, many central banks are considering the possibility of introducing a central bank digital currency (CBDC), to be used as an alternative to cash. These trends have led to a lively debate on the role that a new sovereign digital currency could play in the monetary system. Some claim that the creation of a CBDC looks like a solution in search of problem because the private sector is already responding to the needs of faster and cheaper payment services.[1] The opposite view is that, if nothing is done, central banks could eventually lose the capacity to conduct monetary policy, to preserve financial stability and to ensure the proper functioning of the payment system. While the European Central Bank (ECB) has yet to make a final decision, in July 2021 it announced the start of a two-year “investigation phase” on the possible introduction of a euro CBDC, in which the views of prospective users and of those who will distribute the new currency will be sought.
- Topic:
- European Union, Finance, Currency, and Digital Policy
- Political Geography:
- Europe
254. Inequalities and Local Infrastructure: The Challenges of Post-Covid Recovery Investments
- Author:
- Filippo Barbera
- Publication Date:
- 02-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- Rather than being mere “productive environments”, localities embedded in infrastructure are distinctive living places in which communities of people live and establish a greater part of their daily social relationships. As a result, infrastructure represents the backbone of citizenship rights and strongly affect territorial inequalities. Infrastructure is chiefly understood in physical terms as reticulated systems of highways, pipes, wires or cables. This physical reductionism is by no means sufficient to encompass the multiple facets of the concept or to make sense of the many ways infrastructure affects socio-political inequalities. Knowledge infrastructure, for instance, may indicate robust networks of people, equipment and institutions that generate, share and maintain specific knowledge about the human and natural worlds. Infrastructure furthermore refers to the interplay between information technologies, transportation and other intermodal transport devices. All of these kinds of infrastructure affect inequalities in different ways.
- Topic:
- Political Economy, Politics, Infrastructure, Governance, European Union, Sustainable Development Goals, and Institutions
- Political Geography:
- Europe
255. Israeli Apartheid and the West’s Dwindling Moral Credibility
- Author:
- Andrea Dessì
- Publication Date:
- 02-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- Amidst spiralling tensions on the European continent, East-West animosities have returned to dominate daily news cycles. Predictably, this has revived rhetoric on competing political systems and norms, giving rise to a flurry of reporting contrasting Western democracy’s support for the “rules-based international order” vs an informal “alliance of autocracies” led by Russia and China which embrace military might or economic and political blackmail in “a bid to make the world safe for dictatorship”, as recently opinionated the Washington Post.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Apartheid, Human Rights, International Law, and European Union
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, United States of America, and Mediterranean
256. Europe’s Post-Cold War Order Is No More
- Author:
- Riccardo Alcaro
- Publication Date:
- 02-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- Russian President Vladimir Putin’s decision to recognise the independence of the self-styled separatist republics of Donetsk and Luhansk in the Donbas may very well be the beginning of the end of Ukraine as an independent nation. For Ukraine, a nation of almost 44 million people, catastrophe looms large on the horizon. For Europe, these events are the harbinger of the end of an era. Europe’s post-Cold War order is no more.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, NATO, Diplomacy, and Transatlantic Relations
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Turkey, Ukraine, Caucasus, Balkans, and United States of America
257. A G7/G20 Pact for Sustainable Urbanisation? Building on the Positive Legacy of Italy’s G20 Presidency
- Author:
- Nicholas J. A. Buchoud, Michael Keith, Susan Parnell, and Martin van der Pütten
- Publication Date:
- 02-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- The G20 as we know it emerged from the 2008 global financial crisis. What is rarely acknowledged, however, is that this grouping of the world’s twenty largest economies emerged at a time when the world was fast becoming more “urban” than “rural”. The impact of urbanisation on the world economy has received scant attention in global decision-making arenas because the post-2008 stabilisation of the global financial system came with significant costs. In particular, the financial crisis had important recentralising effects. The OECD, for instance, has regularly underlined the lasting impact of the financial crisis on sub-national investment capabilities.
- Topic:
- International Political Economy, Infrastructure, Governance, Urbanization, G20, and Sustainable Development Goals
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Italy
258. Putin’s Use and Abuse of History: Back to the 19th Century?
- Author:
- Leo Goretti
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- “Ukraine is not just a neighbouring country for us. It is an inalienable part of our own history, culture and spiritual space.” This is how Putin introduced the “decisions being made” in his 55-minute address to the nation on 21 February 2022, which paved the way for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Several commentators noted how Putin’s speech was replete with historical references: as historian Benjamin Nathans pointed out, Vladimir Putin seems to be “quite obsessed with history. So part of our attention […] should be looking at how Putin is using history”. Indeed, almost one-quarter of Putin’s speech was devoted to a rather erratic and convoluted discussion of pre-1991 Russian and Soviet history, departing from the assumption that this was necessary “to explain the motives behind Russia’s actions and what we aim to achieve”.
- Topic:
- Nationalism, History, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Ukraine, Caucasus, and Balkans
259. Chinese Surveillance Devices: Coming to a Neighborhood Near You
- Author:
- Jayson Browder, Valerie Shen, and Mike Sexton
- Publication Date:
- 06-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Third Way
- Abstract:
- The Chinese government conducts cyber espionage against the US on an unprecedented scale. Senior US intelligence officials have warned the “Internet of Things” is a US counterintelligence and cybersecurity vulnerability. Tens of billions of connected physical devices from Chinese-made webcams to “smart” appliances could be exploited at scale by the Chinese intelligence services. In 2016, the malware “Mirai” was able to weaponize more than half a million devices in a Denial-of-Service attack causing a massive East Coast Internet outage. Unaddressed, these threats will only increase as China exports surveillance devices around the world.
- Topic:
- Science and Technology, Cybersecurity, Surveillance, and Innovation
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
260. Three Reasons Why CHIPS-plus is a Big Win for US National Security
- Author:
- Tom Klein
- Publication Date:
- 08-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Third Way
- Abstract:
- On August 9th, 2022, President Biden signed vital bipartisan legislation to compete with China. H.R. 4346, called the CHIPS and Science Act or “CHIPS-plus,” would pave the way for nearly $280 billion in incentives to boost US-based chip manufacturing, scientific research, technology standards setting, and STEM education. These initiatives directly protect our immediate security vulnerabilities in the US military and support our long-term national security competition with China by promoting democratic norms and spurring critical defense innovations.
- Topic:
- Security, National Security, Science and Technology, Military Strategy, Innovation, and CHIPS
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, North America, and United States of America
261. A Saudi-Pakistani Reset: Business as Usual?
- Author:
- Joshua Albin Cheyaden
- Publication Date:
- 01-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
- Abstract:
- “Saudi Arabia and Pakistan are back on track,” declared ʿAli ʿAwadh ʿAsseri, a former Saudi ambassador to Pakistan, following Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan’s state visit to Riyadh in May 2021.[1] Khan’s visit ended a two-year diplomatic rift that had marred a close relationship spanning seven decades.[2] The Pakistani Prime Minister’s visit reopened vital channels of communication that had been shut for almost a year and signaled a “reset” in Saudi-Pakistani relations.[3] The rift between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia began in 2019 and peaked in 2020, while the year 2021 was marked by calls for a reset in their relations.[4] Saudi Arabia’s deepening ties with India remain at the heart of the Saudi-Pakistani split, and they are unlikely to change despite any presumptive diplomatic reset between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia’s increasing engagement with India as a key energy client is just one aspect of a broader transformation the Kingdom is experiencing under Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.[5] At the same time, Pakistan is in a deep economic crisis and is looking for foreign investment in major infrastructure projects to generate employment in the country.[6] In 2021, Pakistan declared its intention to pursue a foreign policy guided by its focus on economic security over its geopolitical interests.[7] Therefore, the long-term prospects for the Saudi-Pakistani reset depends on Pakistan’s ability to accept Saudi Arabia’s more even-handed India-Pakistan policy and the Saudis’ willingness to invest in an economic partnership with Pakistan.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, and Economy
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, South Asia, Middle East, India, and Saudi Arabia
262. The UAE Under Attack: A Foreign Policy Test
- Author:
- Moran Zaga
- Publication Date:
- 02-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
- Abstract:
- January 2022 was an exceptional month in Abu Dhabi’s history. For the first time, this peaceful city suffered casualties as a result of a direct airstrike on two strategic sites – a petroleum storage site and Abu Dhabi International Airport.[1] The January 17 attacks, associated with the Houthis in Yemen, were followed by several failed attempts to attack the United Arab Emirates’ (UAE) capital again. After the initial shock, the UAE launched an international campaign, calling for a multinational response.[2] And indeed, a chain of Arab leaders arrived in Abu Dhabi through the same airport that was attacked just a few days earlier.[3] The goal of their visit was clear – to express their full support and affirm their countries' solidarity with the UAE, its leaders, and its people. For the UAE, these high-level visitors reinforced the Emirati message that it was not alone on this front. The expressions of solidarity with the Emiratis transcended the region - leaders from around the world reached out to the Emirati leaders with messages of support and through other diplomatic channels.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Political stability, and Houthis
- Political Geography:
- Yemen, United Arab Emirates, and Gulf Nations
263. Hizballah, Lebanon, and Reconciliation with the Gulf: The Impasse
- Author:
- Carl Yonker
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
- Abstract:
- On February 14, in Beirut’s southern, Hizballah-dominated suburb of Ghobeiry, Bahraini opposition groups marked the anniversary of the 2011 failed popular uprising in Bahrain. The gathering, organized by the Bahraini opposition group al-Wifaq, took place despite the Lebanese interior ministry’s orders to cancel it, which were issued in order to avoid offending Bahrain and its Gulf allies.[1] Lebanese ties with a quartet of Gulf states – Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Kuwait, and the United Arab Emirates – have been at an impasse since October 2021. The diplomatic crisis, which has yet to be resolved, was sparked by Lebanese Information Minister George Kurdahi's critical comments regarding Saudi Arabia’s military intervention in Yemen. At its core, however, the crisis in Lebanese-Gulf relations is a dispute over Hizballah and its growing political influence in Lebanon – a source of tension for several years.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Non State Actors, Hezbollah, and Reconciliation
- Political Geography:
- Saudi Arabia, Lebanon, Bahrain, United Arab Emirates, and Gulf Nations
264. Politics, War and Eastern Mediterranean Gas
- Author:
- Joshua Krasna
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
- Abstract:
- In the past two months, there have been several significant, interlocking developments regarding Eastern Mediterranean gas. In January, the Biden Administration withdrew American support for the Israeli-Cypriot-Greek EastMed gas pipeline. In February, U.S. officials shuttled between Israel and Lebanon for another round of talks to resolve the question of the maritime border and the exclusive rights to exploit gas in their disputed waters. Most importantly, the Russian aggression against Ukraine, which began in late February, has transformed the long-discussed European need to reduce its dependence on Russian gas (and oil) into an urgent priority. It has also exposed the disconnect between optimistic policies that anticipated an imminent shift to renewable resources and the reality that the developed world will, in the short- to medium-term, remain dependent on fossil fuels. Confronted with this new reality, does Europe's need to rapidly diversify its sources of energy increase the strategic value of Eastern Mediterranean gas? And can the Eastern Mediterranean contribute meaningfully to reducing Europe's dependence on Russian gas?
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Energy Policy, Politics, War, and Gas
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Turkey, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Lebanon, Egypt, and United States of America
265. Tunisia’s Turbulence: On the Road to Economic and Political Collapse
- Author:
- Daniel Zisenwine
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
- Abstract:
- Thousands of Tunisians took to the streets of the capital Tunis in mid-March, demonstrating against Tunisian president Kais Saied’s July 2021 power grab and the country’s ongoing economic crisis. Citing alleged threats to Tunisia’s political order, Saied dismissed the government on July 25, 2021, suspended parliament, and moved to rule by decree. Critics, including opposition Islamist parties but also the country’s powerful trade unions, civil society groups, and foreign experts have since assailed Saied’s moves, contending that he effectively re-imposed one-man rule on Tunisia, and secured unchecked control over all branches of government. This political crisis intensified in late March, after Saied dissolved the Tunisian parliament which convened online and voted to repeal his decrees. The March protest differed from previous ones, as it was organized by the anti-Islamist Free Destourian Party (FDP), which has been critical of democratic measures adopted in Tunisia after the 2011 revolution that overthrew Zayn al-ʾAbidin Ben ʿAli’s authoritarian regime. The protest, led by a right-wing party not unsympathetic to some of Saeid’s grievances, focused on the president and the deteriorating economic crisis.[1] It was another indication of Tunisia’s growing unrest.
- Topic:
- Politics, Democracy, Civil Unrest, Economic Crisis, and Instability
- Political Geography:
- North Africa and Tunisia
266. A Tale of Two Normalizations: Israeli Normalization with the United Arab Emirates (UAE) – Part I
- Author:
- Joshua Krasna
- Publication Date:
- 05-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
- Abstract:
- The “Treaty of Peace, Diplomatic Relations and Full Normalization Between the United Arab Emirates and the State of Israel” was signed on September 15, 2020. On the same day, Bahrain and Israel signed their “Declaration of Peace, Cooperation, and Constructive Diplomatic and Friendly Relations.” Since then, bilateral relations between the two states and Israel have progressed speedily, with many more issue-specific agreements signed and economic relations with the Emirates burgeoning. The Negev Conference on March 28, 2022, which was attended by the U.A.E., Bahrain, Egypt, and Morocco, as well as the United States, symbolized a maturing and coalescence of the regional normalization processes between Israel and conservative Arab states. This paper will address recent developments in the foreign policy of U.A.E. that impact the current status of relations with Israel, as well as recent developments in relations between the two states.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Normalization, and Abraham Accords
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, United States of America, Gulf Nations, and UAE
267. A Tale of Two Normalizations: Israeli Normalization with the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Bahrain – Part II
- Author:
- Joshua Krasna
- Publication Date:
- 06-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
- Abstract:
- Bahrain and Israel signed their “Declaration of Peace, Cooperation, and Constructive Diplomatic and Friendly Relations” on September 15, 2020; the “Treaty of Peace, Diplomatic Relations and Full Normalization Between the United Arab Emirates and the State of Israel” was signed on the same day. Since then, bilateral relations between the two states and Israel have rapidly progressed, with many more issue-specific agreements signed. The Negev Summit on March 28, 2022, which was attended by Bahrain, U.A.E., Egypt, and Morocco, as well as the United States, symbolized a maturing and coalescence of the regional normalization processes between Israel and conservative Arab states. A follow-up to the Negev Summit took place in Manama on June 27, 2022 and the steering committee, which was chaired by Bahraini Undersecretary for Political Affairs Sheikh Abdullah bin Ahmed Al Khalifa, formed working groups on security, health, education, tourism, food and water security, and energy.[1] A previous paper addressed recent developments in the foreign policy of U.A.E. which impact on the current status of relations with Israel, as well as recent developments in the two states’ bilateral relations. This paper will look at the context and content of relations between Israel and Bahrain, and analyze the overall state of normalization in the region at this stage.[2]
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Normalization, and Abraham Accords
- Political Geography:
- Israel, Palestine, Bahrain, United Arab Emirates, and Gulf Nations
268. Saudi Arabia’s New Nationalism: Embracing Jahiliyyah
- Author:
- Ilan Zalayat
- Publication Date:
- 07-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
- Abstract:
- For more than two-thousand years, the walled city of al-ʿUla has been laying peacefully in a northwestern oasis of the Arabian Peninsula. While in ancient times it was an important oasis on the Spice Route, in the modern era, only the approximately five-thousand inhabitants of this far-flung town on the Saudi periphery know it to be the home of well-preserved stone monuments made by Nabataean sculptors. Its relative anonymity stands in stark contrast to its world-renowned twin city in Petra of the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan. However, ever since the de-facto Saudi ruler, Prince Mohammed bin Salman (“MbS”), became Crown Prince in June 2017, Saudi Arabia has gone to great lengths to publicize forgotten al-ʿUla: The government has invested $15 billion on advertising and developing the site, attracting hundreds of thousands of visitors.[1] The government also used the site to host the Saudi reconciliation with Qatar in 2021. Al-ʿUla was also the setting for the first-ever movie that was shot and produced in Saudi Arabia.[2] The counterintuitive choice to feature pagan monuments as the new symbol of Saudi Arabia,[3] a country that has long touted itself as the custodian of Islam, epitomizes the kingdom's effort to reimagine its pre-Islamic history in a nationalist frame.
- Topic:
- Islam, Nationalism, History, and Legitimacy
- Political Geography:
- Saudi Arabia and Gulf Nations
269. Is there anything new in Mansour Abbas’ declaration concerning the “Jewish State”?
- Author:
- Arik Rudnitzky
- Publication Date:
- 02-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
- Abstract:
- The current issue of Bayan includes two articles that discuss the ideological and political characteristics of the Ra’am party, which is the political arm of the Islamic Movement, headed by Mansour Abbas. Dr. Arik Rudnitzky's article examines the declaration by Abbas regarding the Jewish State from a historical point of view.
- Topic:
- Politics, History, Ideology, Arabs, and Mansour Abbas
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, and Palestine
270. Nuclear Waste Policy Actions for the 117th Congress and Biden Administration
- Author:
- Matt Bowen
- Publication Date:
- 01-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
- Abstract:
- In the 117th Congress, the United States Senate is evenly divided, 50-50, between the two major political parties, and the margin for control of the US House is small. One nonpartisan—and overdue—policy issue that Congress and the executive branch could focus on is the US nuclear waste management program. The US is currently paying billions to utilities to house spent nuclear fuel (SNF) at operating and shutdown facilities, and high-level waste (HLW) remains at former nuclear weapons complex sites around the country. Add to this the potential for greater future reliance on nuclear power in a decarbonizing economy, and the need to finally get a handle on managing radioactive waste is clear. An earlier report from the Center on Global Energy Policy on the US nuclear waste management program examined larger structural changes that the federal government could pursue to help the program make progress, such as fixing the funding mechanism and updating regulatory standards.[1] This commentary discusses the US program as it stands in the 117th Congress and proposes a series of comparatively smaller actions that could be considered and perhaps pursued on a bipartisan basis in the next few years.
- Topic:
- Energy Policy, Governance, Leadership, and Nuclear Waste
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
271. Carbon Pricing During an Energy Crisis
- Author:
- Harrison Fell and Pierre Noel
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
- Abstract:
- The European energy crisis, aggravated by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, amplifies the tension between climate mitigation action and energy affordability. Introducing a more effective safety valve to the EU carbon market could reduce affordability concerns and the political pressure associated with extreme price spikes, making the system more resilient. It could be accompanied by a more effective price floor too.
- Topic:
- Energy Policy, International Trade and Finance, Conflict, Carbon Emissions, and Energy Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Europe
272. Venezuela Oil Sanctions: Not an Easy Fix
- Author:
- Luisa Palacios and Francisco J. Monaldi
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
- Abstract:
- Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has upended global energy markets and brought energy security issues back to the forefront of global attention. The unexpected visit of a US government delegation to Caracas for talks with Nicolas Maduro on March 5th may be considered an example of official recognition of this imperative.[1] The visit led to speculation that sanctions on the Maduro regime could be lifted and that a rapid ramp up of Venezuelan oil production and export could result.[2] This commentary makes three arguments concerning these recent developments. First, rather than potentially leading to the lifting of US sanctions on the Maduro regime, the visit could result in – provided certain conditions are met – an easing or softening of existing oil sanctions via licenses for some of the international oil companies (IOCs) that still operate in Venezuela.[3] Second, in the short term, it is unlikely that this scenario, should it come to pass, would offer any meaningful relief to global oil markets, as substantial increments in oil production from Venezuela would require overcoming many obstacles and risks, even with a potential softening of oil sanctions. However, the latter would likely lead to the redirection of Venezuela’s existing oil exports to the US market. Third, Venezuela has already seen a recovery of oil production, albeit from historically low levels. In a context of no sanctions relief, continued recovery is not guaranteed and might depend on how geopolitical events impact Russian oil exports and the outcome of the Iranian nuclear negotiations.
- Topic:
- Energy Policy, Oil, Natural Resources, and Sanctions
- Political Geography:
- South America and Venezuela
273. Energy Markets and the Design of Sanctions on Russia
- Author:
- Christof Ruhl
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
- Abstract:
- Sanctions against the citizens, institutions, and products of the Russian Federation are evolving rapidly. Energy sanctions started late, but the number of countries embargoing oil, gas, or coal imports from Russia is expanding. These sanctions are likely to increase global fuel prices while depressing the price of the sanctioned fuel. The experience to date suggests that the current, gradual approach of reducing oil and gas imports from Russia one country at a time may have room to go further. Before the invasion of Ukraine, the sweeping and unprecedented sanctions promised in the event of a Russian invasion were often conceived as a two-pronged pincer movement. The idea was to isolate Russia from the global financial system while limiting its commodity and energy exports. Both moves were aimed at the source of the financial strength of “fortress Russia,” namely, its persistent balance of payment surplus.
- Topic:
- Energy Policy, International Trade and Finance, Sanctions, Financial Markets, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Russia and Europe
274. Sanctions and the Economic Consequences of Higher Oil Prices
- Author:
- Christof Ruhl
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
- Abstract:
- Sanctions against the Russian Federation are developing so fast that it is hard to keep track of them and even harder to see a consistent narrative as events unfold. But there is one. Russia is the world’s largest exporter of energy and commodities. A persistent balance of payment surplus is the source of its financial strength, in terms of both current income and the financial assets previously accumulated by “fortress Russia.” Oil, gas, and coal exports constitute the most valuable revenue streams and are therefore prime targets of sanctions policy.[1] The problem is that energy sanctions will backfire badly if they lead to price increases large enough to derail the economic performance of sanctioning countries.
- Topic:
- Economics, Energy Policy, Oil, Natural Resources, and Sanctions
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
275. Hydrogen: A Hot Commodity Lacking Sufficient Statistics
- Author:
- Anne-Sophie Corbeau
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
- Abstract:
- Hydrogen has become one of the most debated topics in the energy industry. As an energy vector,[1] hydrogen has been touted as a possible path to decarbonize energy sectors that are considered difficult to electrify, such as heavy-duty transport. While hydrogen expansion faces challenges associated with introducing it into new sectors and decreasing the cost of green (or low-emission) hydrogen, major economies such as China, the EU, and the United States have been looking to integrate its use into their decarbonization strategies.[2] Demand for hydrogen could more than quintuple in a global net-zero-carbon-emissions scenario.[3] Given that hydrogen’s role is expected to increase significantly over the coming decade and expand into new sections of the energy system, it is essential to have more clarity on its current and future demand profile. The energy community is used to relying on statistics for more traditional fuels such as oil or natural gas; they enable analysts and investors to follow market developments, identify trends, and anticipate investment needs and opportunities. For policy makers, they can help to measure progress toward decarbonization objectives or against targets set within their hydrogen strategies as well as help them compare their activity with other countries’ developments. Understanding demand, production, and trade through data transparency is also a key element in energy security.
- Topic:
- Energy Policy, Science and Technology, Decarbonization, and Hydrogen
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
276. Russia’s War in Ukraine: Identity, History, and Conflict
- Author:
- Jeffrey Mankoff
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- Russia’s invasion of Ukraine constitutes the biggest threat to peace and security in Europe since the end of the Cold War. On February 21, 2022, Russian president Vladimir Putin gave a bizarre and at times unhinged speech laying out a long list of grievances as justification for the “special military operation” announced the following day. While these grievances included the long-simmering dispute over the expansion of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and the shape of the post–Cold War security architecture in Europe, the speech centered on a much more fundamental issue: the legitimacy of Ukrainian identity and statehood themselves. It reflected a worldview Putin had long expressed, emphasizing the deep-seated unity among the Eastern Slavs—Russians, Ukrainians, and Belarusians, who all trace their origins to the medieval Kyivan Rus commonwealth—and suggesting that the modern states of Russia, Ukraine, and Belarus should share a political destiny both today and in the future. The corollary to that view is the claim that distinct Ukrainian and Belarusian identities are the product of foreign manipulation and that, today, the West is following in the footsteps of Russia’s imperial rivals in using Ukraine (and Belarus) as part of an “anti-Russia project.” Throughout Putin’s time in office, Moscow has pursued a policy toward Ukraine and Belarus predicated on the assumption that their respective national identities are artificial—and therefore fragile. Putin’s arguments about foreign enemies promoting Ukrainian (and, in a more diffuse way, Belarusian) identity as part of a geopolitical struggle against Russia echo the way many of his predecessors refused to accept the agency of ordinary people seeking autonomy from tsarist or Soviet domination. The historically minded Putin often invokes the ideas of thinkers emphasizing the organic unity of the Russian Empire and its people—especially its Slavic, Orthodox core—in a form of what the historian Timothy Snyder calls the “politics of eternity,” the belief in an unchanging historical essence. The salience that Putin and other Russian elites assign to the idea of Russian-Ukrainian-Belarusian unity helps explain the origins of the current conflict, notably why Moscow was willing to risk a large-scale war on its borders when neither Ukraine nor NATO posed any military threat. It also suggests that Moscow’s ambitions extend beyond preventing Ukrainian NATO membership and encompass a more thorough aspiration to dominate Ukraine politically, militarily, and economically. It also helps explain Russia’s military strategy. Moscow appeared to calculate that enough Ukrainians, at least in the eastern part of the country, would accept some form of reintegration into a Russian sphere of influence because of shared cultural, linguistic, religious, and other ties with Russia. Despite pre-war polls showing large numbers of Ukrainians willing to take up arms to defend their country against a Russian invasion, Moscow’s wager was not entirely implausible given the recentness of the shift and the persistence of family and other ties across the Russian-Ukrainian border. Nonetheless, Russia’s war has become bogged down in no small part because this calculation about Ukrainian identity has proven dramatically wrong.
- Topic:
- War, Military Strategy, Hegemony, Conflict, Rivalry, and Strategic Interests
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Ukraine
277. Creating an Enabling Environment for Sustainable Water Infrastructure Financing
- Author:
- Conor M. Savoy and Janina Staguhn
- Publication Date:
- 05-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- Water presents a significant global development challenge as crises over resources and access to clean water are becoming more extreme due to climate change. To reach the most disadvantaged communities in rural areas, adequate infrastructure is going to be integral. It is estimated that water infrastructure will require an additional $22.5 trillion by 2050, and to achieve Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 6, financing would need to triple to $114 billion per year. As with other forms of infrastructure, water requires more than simply building reservoirs, pipes, and holding tanks. For true sustainable infrastructure, donors and local governments should also invest in support to maintain infrastructure and create a regulatory environment that enables continued improvement. To successfully finance water infrastructure, there must be an understanding of what the current financing landscape looks like and how the United States, its Group of Seven (G7) allies, and multilateral partners should prioritize financing, especially on a local level.
- Topic:
- Environment, International Cooperation, Water, Infrastructure, and Sustainability
- Political Geography:
- North America, Global Focus, and United States of America
278. What Does $40 Billion in Aid to Ukraine Buy?
- Author:
- Mark F. Cancian
- Publication Date:
- 05-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- Congress has approved $40 billion in aid for Ukraine and other countries affected by the conflict―the sixth aid package since the war began. A major change is that this package looks ahead months rather than weeks. The aid package provides $19 billion for immediate military support to Ukraine, continuing the effort that has been vital to sustaining Ukrainian resistance, and $3.9 billion to sustain U.S. forces deployed to Europe. The package also contains about $16 billion for economic support to Ukraine, global humanitarian relief, and a wide variety of international programs as well as $2 billion for long-term support to NATO allies and DOD modernization programs. Although some elements of the aid package will be available quickly, many will take years to fully implement. This raises questions about why long-term elements could not have gone through the regular congressional authorization and budget processes.
- Topic:
- International Cooperation, Military Strategy, Military Spending, and Military Intervention
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Ukraine, North America, and United States of America
279. Why the Opposition Win in Barinas, Venezuela Matters
- Author:
- Ociel Alí López
- Publication Date:
- 01-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- The victory of opposition candidate Sergio Garrido in the governorship race in the state of Barinas on January 9 changes the symbolic map of Venezuela’s internal diatribe. The result barely affects the country’s political-territorial map; the governing party swept the regional elections on November 21 with 19 of 23 governorships and 210 of 335 mayoralties. However, it does mark a tremendous change in the sensibility with which the opposition and the government have participated in a political environment that is, if you will, hospitable—for the first time in many years.
- Topic:
- Government, Elections, Domestic Politics, and Opposition
- Political Geography:
- South America and Venezuela
280. Jogo de Bicho: Brazil’s Popular but Illegal Lottery Game
- Author:
- Constance Malleret
- Publication Date:
- 05-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- Although the game is historically tied to criminal groups, Brazil’s Congress is debating a proposal to legalize it.
- Topic:
- Crime, Domestic Politics, Legislation, and Gambling
- Political Geography:
- Brazil and South America
281. Political Prisoners to Ortega’s Narrative
- Author:
- José Luis Rocha
- Publication Date:
- 05-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- In Nicaragua, the story of a government fighting against the U.S. capitalist empire exposes deep contradictions.
- Topic:
- Government, Prisons/Penal Systems, Domestic Politics, Political Prisoners, Empire, and Daniel Ortega
- Political Geography:
- Central America, Nicaragua, and United States of America
282. Peru: The Broken Dream of Transformative Government?
- Author:
- Alejandra Dinegro Martínez
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- Though Pedro Castillo’s victory initially seemed like a glimmer of hope, the reality of the past eight months has been disappointing.
- Topic:
- Government, Elections, Domestic Politics, and Presidential Elections
- Political Geography:
- South America and Peru
283. Argentina 20 Years After La Crisis del 2001
- Author:
- María Félix Herrera and María Félix Herrera
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- As the government closed a new agreement with the International Monetary Fund, Argentine societyrevisited painful memories from its biggest financial crisis in recent history.
- Topic:
- Financial Crisis, Economy, and IMF
- Political Geography:
- Argentina and South America
284. UK Must Engage with Argentina Over Future of Falkland Islands
- Author:
- Carole Concha Bell
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- For Argentina, it’s position in the decades-old dispute over the British Overseas Territory remains clear: Las Malvinas son Argentinas.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Politics, Territorial Disputes, Conflict, and Dialogue
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom, Argentina, South America, and Falkland Islands
285. Quechua Sports Journalist Takes Language Revitalization to New Spaces
- Author:
- Jermani Ojeda Ludena
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- From Peru’s Andes, soccer commentator Qara Q’ompo’s broadcasts combat stigma while tapping intooral knowledge to expand Quechua’s reach.
- Topic:
- Sports, Language, Journalism, Soccer, and Quechua
- Political Geography:
- South America and Peru
286. Libel Conviction in Peru: A ‘Dagger’ for InvestigativeJournalism
- Author:
- Carlos Lauría
- Publication Date:
- 01-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- A recent defamation case against a Peruvian journalist and publisher has sparked concern about freedomof speech.
- Topic:
- Crime, Human Rights, Journalism, and Freedom of Press
- Political Geography:
- South America and Peru
287. 25 Years After the Peace Accords, Democracy Weak in Guatemala
- Author:
- Giovanni Batz
- Publication Date:
- 01-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- In Guatemala, safeguards against corruption, impunity, and state violence are being dismantled by the politicians, elites, and military and some fear the return of an authoritarian state.
- Topic:
- Corruption, Authoritarianism, Democracy, and State Violence
- Political Geography:
- Central America and Guatemala
288. Costa Rica's Rush to the Right
- Author:
- Andrés León Araya
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- With second round presidential elections on April 3, the country faces high levels of voter abstention, an increasingly right-wing Congress, and a choice between two candidates ringed by controversy.
- Topic:
- Politics, Elections, Democracy, Presidential Elections, and Right-Wing Politics
- Political Geography:
- Central America and Costa Rica
289. Latin America and the New Non-Aligned Movement
- Author:
- Bryan Pitts
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- While the Global North has responded as a unified front to the war in Ukraine, in Latin America, countries are choosing their own paths.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, War, Geopolitics, and Narrative
- Political Geography:
- Ukraine and Latin America
290. Mexico’s Military Knew Ayotzinapa 43 Were Kidnapped, Then Covered It Up
- Author:
- Ñaní Pinto
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- Following a new report, families of the 43 students criticized the government of President Andrés Manuel López Obrador for failing to follow through on promises to finally solve the case.
- Topic:
- Corruption, Crime, Government, Kidnapping, and Military
- Political Geography:
- North America and Mexico
291. La Encrucijada’s Dilemma: Greenwashing Oil Palm in Chiapas
- Author:
- Santiago Navarro F. and Aldo Santiago
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- On Mexico’s Pacific coast, the government and businesses are trying to legalize a huge area of illegally-cultivated oil palm by reducing the size of an environmental reserve.
- Topic:
- Environment, Government, Natural Resources, Business, Greenwashing, and Palm Oil
- Political Geography:
- North America and Mexico
292. Disobedient Histories: Descendants of Perpetrators in Argentina Join the Human Rights Movement
- Author:
- Claire Branigan
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- Decades after the return to democracy, the children of dictatorship-era human rights abusers have ignited a new movement for truth, memory, and justice throughout Latin America and beyond.
- Topic:
- Human Rights, History, Democracy, Memory, Justice, Political Movements, and Perpetrators
- Political Geography:
- Argentina and Latin America
293. Living Without Fear: Francia Márquez and Black Feminist Politics in Colombia
- Author:
- Nadia Mosquera Muriel
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- With her message of inclusion, the Afro-Colombian environmental activist—who earned the third most votes in the March primaries and a VP nomination—is making history.
- Topic:
- Environment, Elections, Feminism, Activism, and Black Feminism
- Political Geography:
- Colombia and South America
294. Integration with the United States or Latin American Independence?
- Author:
- David Barkin and Alberto Betancourt
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- At the last Community of Latin American and Caribbean States meeting, Mexico’s president proposed contradicting relationships with North America.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, Regional Cooperation, and Integration
- Political Geography:
- Latin America, Caribbean, North America, Mexico, and United States of America
295. Progressive Politics Makes Gains in Colombia's Conservative Antioquia
- Author:
- Juliana Martínez
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- After a record-breaking presidential primary, the Colombian Left has a fighting chance at winning the top office and challenging the legacy of the country's most powerful politician.
- Topic:
- Politics, Conservatism, Leftist Politics, and Presidential Elections
- Political Geography:
- Colombia and South America
296. Brazilian Youth Fight to Decolonize Climate Justice
- Author:
- Anna Beatriz Anjos
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- Activists from Brazil’s urban peripheries are among the hardest hit by the climate crisis, and they are becoming increasingly active in the fight against it.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Environment, Inequality, Urban, Justice, and Political Movements
- Political Geography:
- Brazil and South America
297. For Hemispheric Unity, a Change in U.S. Foreign Policy is Needed
- Author:
- Brett J. Kyle and Andrew G. Reiter
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- In the face of a new war in Europe, shoring up support in Latin America will not be as easy as the Biden administration thinks.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, and War
- Political Geography:
- Ukraine, Latin America, and United States of America
298. Gaining Ground in the Struggle Against Extractivism
- Author:
- Antulio Rosales and Claudia Rodríguez Gilly
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- From oil to mining, resource exploitation is the central battlefield for Venezuela’s land and environmental movements.
- Topic:
- Environment, Oil, Natural Resources, Social Movement, Mining, Land, and Extractive Industries
- Political Geography:
- South America and Venezuela
299. Will Popular Power Survive?
- Author:
- María Pilar García-Guadilla and Ulises Castro
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- Popular power was a cornerstone of the Bolivarian Revolution. Facing co-optation, crisis, and decline, its future remains in question.
- Topic:
- Government, Social Movement, Community, Nicholas Maduro, and Political Crisis
- Political Geography:
- South America and Venezuela
300. Making Art Amid Mayhem
- Author:
- Carlos Egaña
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- For a Venezuelan artist, photography offers a democratic means of expression and experimentation from differing viewpoints.
- Topic:
- Arts, Culture, and Photography
- Political Geography:
- South America and Venezuela