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12. Maneuvering: Why Iran is Cozying up to Taliban?
- Author:
- FARAS
- Publication Date:
- 01-2019
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
- Abstract:
- Iran is currently making unremitting efforts to further its relations with the Afghan Taliban. Although these attempts are not new, as there have always been unannounced channels of communication between the two parties, Iran is keen to uncover the presence of these channels and its efforts to foster relations with the movement. This was evident in the recent statements of Iranian officials such as its Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif and the Secretary of the Supreme Council for National Security Ali Shamkhani. This is, without a doubt, inseparable from the Iranian attempts to pave the Afghan arena for the return of elements of the Fatimid militia, and perhaps prepare in advance for a possible and sudden US withdrawal from the country, like the recent US decision to withdraw from Syria.
- Topic:
- Non State Actors, Taliban, Conflict, and Militias
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, Iran, South Asia, Middle East, North America, and United States of America
13. Preemption: How Iran Is Reacting to the Warsaw Summit
- Author:
- FARAS
- Publication Date:
- 01-2019
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
- Abstract:
- Following the announcement of hosting an international summit on February 13 and 14, 2019, Iran has launched a diplomatic offensive against Poland, where one of the conference main elements will be how to respond to the Iranian interventions in the region. In addition, Iran has also begun to take preemptive moves both to send messages to the powers concerned with the repercussions of those interventions and to tout its ability to contain the pressures of US policy. These moves include attempts to pivot to the East, particularly towards some neighboring countries, and hints at its ability to withdraw from the nuclear deal and resume its suspicious program again.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, European Union, and Donald Trump
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Iran, Middle East, Poland, North America, and United States of America
14. Possible Repercussions: Why is Iran Interested in the Venezuelan Crisis?
- Author:
- FARAS
- Publication Date:
- 02-2019
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
- Abstract:
- Iran was quick to support President Nicolas Maduro's regime, rejecting any attempt to take over power unlawfully, and at the same time considering the U.S. position on the Venezuelan crisis as a direct interference in its internal affairs. It has even instructed its allied militias, like Hezbollah, to adopt a similar position on the crisis in Caracas.
- Topic:
- Oil, Hezbollah, Donald Trump, Juan Guaido, and Nicholas Maduro
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, South America, Venezuela, North America, and United States of America
15. Tough Test: Baghdad’s Options Amid the Iranian-US Escalation
- Author:
- FARAS
- Publication Date:
- 02-2019
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
- Abstract:
- While the US prepares to withdraw its troops from Syria, it considers redeploying its troops in Iraq. Although this might not have caused a crisis between the two countries, as the US troops have been in Iraq for the past 15 years, the US president Donald Trump justification for the move, to “watch Iran”, has pushed relations between Washington and Baghdad to this path. To make things worse, this move was accompanied by selecting a site in the Anbar governorate for that purpose, which is to reduce Iran’s movements towards Syria through the Iraqi territory, putting Baghdad in trouble with its frenemies.
- Topic:
- Bilateral Relations, Crisis Management, Donald Trump, and Hassan Rouhani
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America
16. The Last Option: Impact of the Battle for Idlib on the Syrian Conflict
- Author:
- FARAS
- Publication Date:
- 02-2019
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
- Abstract:
- Idlib has been the delayed battle in the Syrian conflict throughout its various stages, but this seems to be coming to an end, as many indicators reveal. For example, Russia, for the time being, is keen to resolve Idlib’s issue which would reinforce the specter of military intervention. Moscow indicates that there are no options left for the parties to the Sochi agreement, pointing also to the difficulty of implementing its terms. The 10 points-agreement has not achieved its purpose for five months, given the terrorist organizations’ control over the area, in particular al-Nusra Front. This happens amid lack of actions from the Turkish side, which has threatened, more than once, to deter those who jeopardize the agreement, which compelled it to agree, ostensibly, with the other parties on launching a military offensive in Idlib. Despite the challenges and consequences of this option, it is the scenario that looms large over the Syrian scene at present.
- Topic:
- Terrorism, Military Affairs, Conflict, and Syrian War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Iran, Turkey, Middle East, Syria, and Idlib
17. Extreme Messages Reasons: Behind Appointing Ebrahim Raisi as Chief of the Judiciary
- Author:
- FARAS
- Publication Date:
- 03-2019
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
- Abstract:
- The decision of the supreme leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran, Ali Khamenei, to appoint Ebrahim Raisi, the head of the Imam Reza Shrine in Mashhad, as the judiciary chief, earlier this month, is not only linked to the former’s continued efforts to readjust the balance of power in the Iranian regime. It is also related to the impact of the pressures facing Tehran on Khamenei’s vision of the regime itself, especially since these pressures have not only affected the domestic situation but also spread abroad. International and regional powers have become increasingly concerned over Iran’s role in the region, its missile and nuclear programs, and its human rights violations.
- Topic:
- Human Rights, Protests, Judiciary, and Hassan Rouhani
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, and Tehran
18. Consequences of Alignment: Why do Qatar and Turkey oppose designating the Pasdaran as a terror group?
- Author:
- FARAS
- Publication Date:
- 04-2019
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
- Abstract:
- Qatar and Turkey were quick to express their opposition to the US designation, on April 8, 2019, of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corp (IRGC) as a foreign terrorist organization. This stance cannot be separated from Doha and Ankara's perception of the repercussions that such a move could have on their position on various regional crises or the bilateral relations with Iran, which appear to be heading toward difficult challenges. The most critical of these challenge are the continuous pressures it faces at home and abroad. This could spell serious problems for Qatar and Turkey if they insist on siding with Iran in the coming period.
- Topic:
- Economics, Terrorism, Sanctions, Alliance, and Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corp (IRGC)
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Turkey, Tehran, Qatar, Ankara, and Doha
19. Cautionary Anticipation: How did Iran deal with the newly imposed American Sanctions?
- Author:
- FARAS
- Publication Date:
- 09-2019
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
- Abstract:
- Iran is still anticipating the various alternatives that the United States may utilize to address the Iranian escalatory behavior, during the coming period. Such actions may not be limited to the new sanctions imposed on September 20, 2019 that included the Central Bank of Iran, National Development Fund and Etemad Tejarat Pars. Arguably, the procedural steps planned by the Donald Trump's administration will substantially determine the possible alternatives for the Iranian reciprocal behavior/ which Iran may rely on.
- Topic:
- Oil, Sanctions, and Economy
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America
20. A Difficult Trade-off: Can Moscow Trade Iran’s Influence in Syria for Sanctions?
- Author:
- FARAS
- Publication Date:
- 11-2018
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
- Abstract:
- Currently, Russia is trying to maintain its political and security understandings with key parties to the Syrian conflict. But one of the main obstacles facing it is the intertwining and conflicting interests of parties, which leaves Russia with limited options and narrow room for maneuvering. Furthermore, it strains its relations with these parties, as is the case with Israel, following the Russian accusation to Israel of shooting down the Ilyushin Il-20 in September 17, 2018.
- Topic:
- Security, Sanctions, Donald Trump, Vladimir Putin, Hassan Rouhani, and Bashar al-Assad
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Iran, and Syria