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302. Campaigning for a More Dignified Colombia
- Author:
- Sita Bates
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- In Colombia, women candidates for the presidency are using their campaigns to advocate against violence.
- Topic:
- Women, Domestic Politics, Violence, and Presidential Elections
- Political Geography:
- Colombia and South America
303. In Bolivia, Ex-President Áñez’s Trial Sparks Debate About Justice
- Author:
- Amy Booth
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- Critics say her prosecution on coup charges violates due process, but the Bolivian state has a responsibility to seek justice.
- Topic:
- Accountability, Coup, Justice, and Due Process
- Political Geography:
- South America and Bolivia
304. Latin American Newsrooms Develop Creative Strategies for Survival
- Author:
- Lucia Cholakian Herrera
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- From strengthening their bonds with their readers to redefining their workflows, newsrooms in the region are determined to keep their editorial work going despite media monopolies, and organizational or financial challenges.
- Topic:
- Media and Journalism
- Political Geography:
- Latin America
305. Territories of Extreme Violence in Ecuador’s War on Drugs
- Author:
- Paula Sevilla Núñez
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- Official narratives explaining deadly riots in Ecuador’s prisons fail to recognize the state’s role in fomenting the violence.
- Topic:
- War on Drugs, Prisons/Penal Systems, State, and Violence
- Political Geography:
- Central America and Ecuador
306. The Venezuelan Opposition’s Elusive Quest for Power
- Author:
- Maryhen Jiménez and Juan Manuel Trak
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- Persistent internal conflicts have prevented Chavismo’s detractors from organizing a serious political proposal to successfully contest power. Can the opposition democratize?
- Topic:
- Democracy, Domestic Politics, and Opposition
- Political Geography:
- South America and Venezuela
307. The Rise and Fall of Barrio Adentro
- Author:
- Amy Cooper and Oscar Feo
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- With Hugo Chávez’s celebrated health care project progressively in ruins, the pandemic underlines the need to rebuild.
- Topic:
- Health Care Policy, Public Health, COVID-19, and Hugo Chavez
- Political Geography:
- South America and Venezuela
308. Breaking Through for LGBTQI Rights
- Author:
- Daniel Fermín, Paula Sevilla Núñez, and Yendri Velásquez
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- Movements fighting homophobia and transphobia in Venezuela offer an example of organizing that successfully joins forces across ideological and partisan lines.
- Topic:
- Human Rights, Social Movement, Ideology, LGBT+, Homophobia, and Transphobia
- Political Geography:
- South America and Venezuela
309. “I Left Venezuela to Defend the Constitution”: An Interview with Luisa Ortega Díaz
- Author:
- John Brown
- Publication Date:
- 02-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- The former Attorney General discusses how her country has changed since Chávez and what is required to restore democracy.
- Topic:
- Democracy, Domestic Politics, Interview, and Hugo Chavez
- Political Geography:
- South America and Venezuela
310. Fact Checking Power, April 11, 2002 and Beyond
- Author:
- David Smilde
- Publication Date:
- 02-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- In the face of a fraught conflict with missteps and misinformation on both sides, empirically informed analysis offers one tool to cut through the noise.
- Topic:
- Elections, Domestic Politics, Conflict, Protests, Misinformation, and Hugo Chavez
- Political Geography:
- South America and Venezuela
311. Chavismo in the World
- Author:
- Angelo Rivero Santos and Javier Morales Hernández
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- The Bolivarian Revolution shook up the geopolitical map. Rebuilding Venezuela’s fractured relations in the hemisphere remains its chief foreign policy challenge.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, Geopolitics, and Hugo Chavez
- Political Geography:
- South America and Venezuela
312. An Independent Union Wins Landslide Victory Among MexicanGM Workers
- Author:
- Dan DiMaggio and Luis Feliz Leon
- Publication Date:
- 02-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- The vote by auto workers in Guanajuato to replace the previous employee-friendly union with the National Auto Workers Union in early February is a breakthrough for labor rights.
- Topic:
- Labor Issues, Industry, Labor Rights, Workforce, and Labor Unions
- Political Geography:
- North America and Mexico
313. Venezuela's Missing Center
- Author:
- Francisco Rodríguez
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- With the country caught in a pitched winner-take-all contest, it is unsurprising that voters feel apathetic. Solutions must come from the space between the extremes.
- Topic:
- Elections, Domestic Politics, Voting, and Centrism
- Political Geography:
- South America and Venezuela
314. The Feminist Revolution That Wasn't
- Author:
- Yoletty Bracho and Marisela Betancourt
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- Chavismo co-opted women’s rights rhetoric but failed to deliver on core feminist demands. For grassroots movements, abortion access remains a key struggle.
- Topic:
- Politics, Women, Feminism, Abortion, and Grassroots Organizing
- Political Geography:
- South America and Venezuela
315. Displaced and Insecure: Understanding the Exodus and Its Effects
- Author:
- María Isabel Puerta Riera
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- From brain drain to mental health issues, the mass migration of millions of Venezuelans has far-reaching impacts at home and abroad.
- Topic:
- Migration, Brain Drain, Displacement, and Mental Health
- Political Geography:
- South America and Venezuela
316. Chavismo, Student Movements, and the Future of the Left
- Author:
- Fabrice Andreani and Damian Alifa
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- Partisan polarization wiped out autonomous stances within Venezuela’s universities for more than 15years. Rebuilding a pluralist Left from the grassroots is key to reclaiming combative struggles.
- Topic:
- Social Movement, Leftist Politics, Students, Polarization, and Grassroots Organizing
- Political Geography:
- South America and Venezuela
317. Navigating Alternate Realities
- Author:
- Alexander Main
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- When political tensions run high and misinformation proliferates, there’s no better way to get a clear view than with your own eyes.
- Topic:
- Domestic Politics, Protests, Misinformation, and Political Crisis
- Political Geography:
- South America and Venezuela
318. Making the Dominican Republic Great Again?
- Author:
- Lorgia García-Peña
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- The Dominican government has always aligned itself with white supremacism, following the United States’ lead on immigration policies towards Haitians.
- Topic:
- Immigration, Border Control, and White Supremacy
- Political Geography:
- Caribbean, Haiti, Dominican Republic, and United States of America
319. The Devastating Costs of Puerto Rico’s Solar “Farms”
- Author:
- Ruth Santiago, Hilda Lloréns, and Catalina de Onís
- Publication Date:
- 02-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- The road to achieving sustainable energy in Puerto Rico should not be paved by bulldozing agricultural lands and coastal plains.
- Topic:
- Agriculture, Climate Change, Environment, Sustainability, Solar Power, and Energy
- Political Geography:
- Caribbean and Puerto Rico
320. Remembering María Elena Moyano: 30 Years Later
- Author:
- Néstor David Pastor
- Publication Date:
- 02-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- Decades after her shocking murder, the Afro-Peruvian activist and organizer’s legacy for affirming life and collective dignity is more relevant than ever.
- Topic:
- Assassination, Activism, and Grassroots Organizing
- Political Geography:
- South America and Peru
321. Environmental Justice in the Age of Unnatural Disaster
- Author:
- Chris N. Lesser
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- The recent mudslides in Petrópolis are just the latest examples of the issues of unequal access to land and precarious housing in Brazil.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Environment, Natural Disasters, Inequality, Justice, Land, and Housing
- Political Geography:
- Brazil and South America
322. Colombia Joins the Green Wave
- Author:
- David Díaz Arias and Joshua Collins
- Publication Date:
- 02-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- In a historic win for reproductive rights, Colombia’s highest court strikes down law that made abortion a crime.
- Topic:
- Human Rights, Social Movement, Courts, and Abortion
- Political Geography:
- Colombia and South America
323. Why Haiti Advocacy Needs New Strategies
- Author:
- Mark Schuller
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- As the Biden administration continues to ignore Haitian civil society proposals for a pathway out of crisis, confronting white supremacy across borders is essential.
- Topic:
- Civil Society, Borders, Crisis Management, and White Supremacy
- Political Geography:
- Caribbean, Haiti, and United States of America
324. Cooking Revolutions in the Community Pot
- Author:
- Virginia Tognola
- Publication Date:
- 02-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- In Argentina, culinary cooperatives provide food and support for vulnerable communities.
- Topic:
- Food, Community, Community Engagement, and Cooperatives
- Political Geography:
- Argentina and South America
325. For Venezuelans in Colombia, the Long Path to Legal Residency
- Author:
- Liza Schmidt
- Publication Date:
- 02-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- Although providing the 10-year residence permits promised last year has been a complicated process, many maintain hope for a more stable future.
- Topic:
- Migration, Immigration, Borders, Domestic Policy, and Social Stability
- Political Geography:
- Colombia, South America, and Venezuela
326. U.S. Immigration Detention System: “A Living Hell”
- Author:
- Joseph Nevins
- Publication Date:
- 02-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- A historical and contemporary look at migrant incarceration and the detainees pushing for change inside and beyond the system.
- Topic:
- Human Rights, Immigration, Border Control, and Detention
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
327. Guatemala on Trial: Maya Land Rights Case Reaches International Court
- Author:
- María Inés Taracena
- Publication Date:
- 02-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- After a decades-long fight against transnational mining interests and state repression, the community’s case could set a new precedent for Indigenous land and resource rights.
- Topic:
- Natural Resources, Courts, Mining, Land Rights, and Indigenous
- Political Geography:
- Central America and Guatemala
328. WILL NATO MILITARY EXERCISES DETER RUSSIAN EXPANSION?
- Author:
- Brian Blankenship
- Publication Date:
- 02-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Political Violence @ A Glance
- Abstract:
- As concerns that Russia might try to seize additional territory from Ukraine have mounted in recent weeks, policymakers in the United States and NATO have considered how best to shore up the alliance and discourage a Russian offensive. These efforts are hardly new. Since Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014, the NATO alliance has attempted to dissuade Russia from further attempts to encroach on the territory of neighboring countries. These attempts have included the creation of a “Very High Readiness Joint Task Force” capable of deploying to crisis areas within 72 hours, as well as the “Enhanced Forward Presence” consisting of four multinational battalions stationed in Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland on a rotational basis. Additionally, NATO members have conducted a variety of military exercises with members around the alliance’s eastern flank, as well as some with Ukraine itself.
- Topic:
- NATO, Deterrence, Vladimir Putin, Joe Biden, and Military
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Ukraine, United States of America, and Baltic States
329. HOW DO GOVERNMENTS DECIDE WHICH GROUPS ARE “TERRORIST ORGANIZATIONS”?
- Author:
- Brian J. Phillips and Mirna El Masri
- Publication Date:
- 02-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Political Violence @ A Glance
- Abstract:
- US Senator Ted Cruz recently called for Yemen’s Houthis to be added to the Foreign Terrorist Organization list—again. The Iran-backed Houthis, also known as Ansar Allah, were designated as terrorists by the Trump administration on January 19, 2021, criminalizing support of the group, but the designation was removed by the Biden administration the following month. Around the world, national terrorist group lists vary considerably, and change over time. Last fall, the UK government announced it would add Hamas to its terrorist list. Other countries, such as the United States, have long designated Hamas a terrorist group, while others, like Russia, have not. Why do some organizations end up on countries’ terrorist group lists? Why are some terrorist lists different than others?
- Topic:
- Government, Terrorism, Non State Actors, Conflict, and Islamism
- Political Geography:
- United States of America
330. WILL COOPERATION BETWEEN THE WORLD BANK AND CHINA LAST?
- Author:
- Richard Clark
- Publication Date:
- 02-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Political Violence @ A Glance
- Abstract:
- International development organizations, which provide concessional loans and grants to help finance developing countries, often overlap with one another, performing similar tasks in similar countries. For instance, dozens of such organizations have offered COVID-19 relief to developing country member states. In one case, the World Bank approved a $95 million package for Uzbekistan to strengthen its medical systems in April 2020. The Asian Development Bank pledged another $1.1 billion to Uzbekistan over the last two years, and the World Health Organization doled out another $10 million in personal protective and laboratory equipment. Overall, 28 international organizations provide development assistance today.
- Topic:
- Development, International Organization, World Bank, and Finance
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
331. A WIDENING RIFT BETWEEN EUROPE AND THE SAHEL
- Author:
- Silvia D'Amato
- Publication Date:
- 02-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Political Violence @ A Glance
- Abstract:
- Two weeks ago, the Malian military junta, in power after a coup in May 2021, proposed to hold elections in December 2025 instead of this month as promised. The move was widely condemned. West Africa’s main regional bloc, the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), immediately imposed new sanctions while the French Minister of Defense Florence Parly floated the possibility of reviewing the French and European military engagement in the country. The French Minister of Foreign Affairs Jean-Yves Le Drian openly called the junta “illegitimate”. In response, on January 31 Malian authorities gave 72 hours to the French Ambassador in Bamako to leave the country, an unprecedented diplomatic decision. The European Union (EU) also took a firm stance by imposing targeted sanctions against 5 members of the junta, including Prime Minister Choguel Maïga. The current querelle is arguably only the latest in an ongoing dynamic of political fragmentation in the cooperation between European and regional actors in the Sahel.
- Topic:
- International Cooperation, Counterinsurgency, Armed Forces, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Europe, North Africa, and Sahel
332. ARE RUSSIA’S THREATS CREDIBLE?
- Author:
- Stephen Shulman and Stephen Bloom
- Publication Date:
- 02-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Political Violence @ A Glance
- Abstract:
- The current crisis in Europe is a head-to-head battle of policies of coercive diplomacy: compellence by Russia and deterrence by the West. Russia’s demands focus on permanently reversing the expansion of Western military power into Ukraine, backed by the threat of military attack on Ukraine in the absence of compliance. Western policy seeks to deter such an attack by threatening painful economic sanctions and arming Ukraine to make such an attack more costly to Russia. How credible is the Russian threat?
- Topic:
- NATO, Diplomacy, Sanctions, Crisis Management, and Military
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe
333. HOW GERMANY’S COALITION CHANGE CONTRIBUTED TO PUTIN’S STRATEGIC MISCALCULATION IN UKRAINE
- Author:
- Debra Leiter and Rebecca Best
- Publication Date:
- 02-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Political Violence @ A Glance
- Abstract:
- Vladimir Putin almost certainly failed to anticipate that Germany would be willing to sacrifice the benefits of cheaper Russian gas to punish Russian aggression in Ukraine. But Tuesday, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz indefinitely paused certification of the completed Nord Stream 2 pipeline to “reassess” the situation. While the move didn’t stop Putin from invading Ukraine—by that point Putin already had too much skin in the game to risk the loss of face from backing down—it has substantially raised the costs for Russia. Why did Germany do this, and why didn’t Putin see it coming?
- Topic:
- NATO, Oil, War, Gas, and Strategic Interests
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and Germany
334. CONTAINMENT 2.0: SANCTIONS FOR THE LONG HAUL
- Author:
- David A. Lake
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Political Violence @ A Glance
- Abstract:
- The West is not imposing coercive sanctions on Russia to stop its current aggression. No one seriously expects that the sanctions will cause President Putin to withdraw from Ukraine. NATO made clear before the war that its members will not defend Ukraine with military force. The European members have also, as expected, carved out exceptions to the sanctions regime for oil and gas so as not to impose too much pain on their own economies. Putin anticipated the general scope of the sanctions likely to be imposed on Russia and decided it was worth invading Ukraine anyways. While he may have been surprised by the extent of the sanctions and unity of NATO so far, this is not enough to alter his calculus. Indeed, he is doubling down on the original plan. He also knows that he has other weapons and forms of coercion against the West up his sleeve. Rather, we are seeing the birth of a possible Containment 2.0, a forced decoupling of Russia from the Western international economy. This is a long-term, not a short-term, strategy. The point is to undermine the Russian economy, stifle its technological progress, deny Russians a standard of living comparable to that of the West, and break support for the regime over time. In doing so, the West undermines Russia’s ability to compete militarily, aiming to forestall further Ukraines, and weakens Putin’s hand at home and abroad.
- Topic:
- NATO, International Trade and Finance, Sanctions, Economy, and Containment
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Ukraine, Global Focus, and United States of America
335. WILL NATO FIGHT RUSSIA OVER UKRAINE? THE STABILITY-INSTABILITY PARADOX SAYS NO
- Author:
- Andrew Kydd
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Political Violence @ A Glance
- Abstract:
- Many observers of the current war between Russia and Ukraine have expressed concern that NATO support for Ukraine could escalate the conflict to a direct major conventional war between NATO and Russia, and that from there it could easily escalate to a nuclear war. A group of foreign policy experts have proposed that NATO impose a “no-fly zone” over Ukraine, while other analysts have decried the escalatory potential of such a move. In a recent poll of international relations scholars, 40 percent thought a no-fly zone would lead to large-scale conventional war between NATO and Russia and 13 percent thought it could lead to nuclear war.
- Topic:
- NATO, Nuclear Weapons, War, Escalation, and Instability
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and United States of America
336. CAN ISRAEL REMAIN BOTH NEUTRAL AND PART OF THE WEST?
- Author:
- Michael Barnett
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Political Violence @ A Glance
- Abstract:
- Israel is getting some unwanted attention because of its reluctance to outrightly condemn the Russian invasion of Ukraine. No one believes that the failure to condemn translates into support for the attack. But Israel’s reticence has placed it in an awkward situation—one that might, in fact, translate into a loss of support from Western countries when Israel needs it most.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Geopolitics, Conflict, Neutrality, and Strategic Interests
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Ukraine, Middle East, Israel, and Eastern Europe
337. WHY A SETTLEMENT IN UKRAINE REMAINS OUT OF REACH
- Author:
- Valerie Sticher
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Political Violence @ A Glance
- Abstract:
- The Russian invasion and unfolding humanitarian catastrophe in Ukraine show the limits of diplomacy. Despite warning of an impending invasion, efforts to stop the war failed. And despite the high costs on all sides, efforts to stop this horrific war remain elusive. Why is this the case?
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, War, and Humanitarian Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe
338. HOW HISTORICAL ANALOGIES WOKE UP THE WEST
- Author:
- Eric Mosinger
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Political Violence @ A Glance
- Abstract:
- Policymakers, activists, and ordinary people often make analogies between past and present, for example, by labeling 9/11 “the Pearl Harbor of the 21st century.” In doing so, people hope to better understand surprising events and develop a plan of action for themselves and others. Vladimir Putin employed historical analogies to justify his invasion of Ukraine, while Western leaders drew on their own understanding of World War II history to mobilize a surprisingly muscular response to Russian aggression.
- Topic:
- War, History, and Vladimir Putin
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe
339. WHY OFFSHORE FINANCE LIMITS U.S. SANCTIONS AGAINST RUSSIA
- Author:
- Menevis Cilizoglu and Chelsea Estancona
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Political Violence @ A Glance
- Abstract:
- More than 1,000 individuals and entities have now been targeted with sanctions since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, including more than 50 oligarchs close to Putin and their families. These measures include the freezing of assets in international banks, seizure of yachts, private jets, and luxury real estate, and travel bans. Western policymakers hope that targeting a wide network of Russian political and economic elites, including oil executives, steel tycoons, media moguls and high-level intelligence officers will isolate Putin and pressure him to reverse course. The million-dollar question is, can these targeted measures actually hurt Russian oligarchs, let alone pressure Putin?
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, War, Sanctions, Offshore Finance, and Shell Companies
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Ukraine, and United States of America
340. The UN-Mediated Truce in Yemen: Impacts of the First Two Months
- Author:
- Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
- Publication Date:
- 06-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
- Abstract:
- Key Trends: Both Saudi-led coalition airstrikes from fighter jets in Yemen and Houthi drone and missile attacks on Saudi Arabia stopped entirely. In the year leading up to the truce, ACLED records an average of more than 40 coalition airstrike events per week in Yemen,3 and an average of four Houthi drone and missile attacks per week in Saudi Arabia.4 Shelling across the main frontlines increased significantly, becoming the main form of political violence in Yemen. During the first two months of the truce, shelling, artillery, and missile attack events accounted for 55% of all political violence events, compared to 19% in the two months preceding the truce. While armed clashes between conflict parties remained at relatively high levels in April and May 2022, their lethality decreased considerably. The lethality of armed clashes was five times lower during the first two months of the truce than during the two months prior. April and May 2022 saw the lowest levels of reported fatalities since January 2015, but civilians suffered disproportionately from political violence. Although reported fatalities from civilian targeting decreased by more than 50% from March to April, their share of the total reported fatalities increased by more than 50%.
- Topic:
- Treaties and Agreements, United Nations, Conflict, and Violence
- Political Geography:
- Yemen, Saudi Arabia, and Gulf Nations
341. Fact Sheet: Anti-LGBT+ Mobilization on the Rise in the United States
- Author:
- Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
- Publication Date:
- 06-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
- Abstract:
- Amid a wave of legislation targeting the LGBT+ community, anti-LGBT+ mobilization is increasing in the United States (see graph below). Anti-LGBT+ mobilization captured by ACLED — including demonstrations (both peaceful and violent), acts of political violence (including sexual violence, non-sexual attacks, and mob violence), and the dissemination of offline propaganda (like flyering) — rose fourfold from 15 events in 2020 to 61 in 2021. As of early June 2022 and the start of LGBT+ Pride Month, ACLED has already recorded 33 anti-LGBT+ events this year — putting 2022 on track to be a worse year for anti-LGBT+ mobilization than 2021.
- Topic:
- Political Violence, Discrimination, Protests, and LGBT+
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
342. Religious Repression and Disorder Snapshots: 2020- 2021
- Author:
- Luca Nevola
- Publication Date:
- 02-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
- Abstract:
- ACLED-Religion’s incorporation of historical back-coding data for 2020 adds over 6,000 events across the seven countries covered by the pilot project: Bahrain, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Palestine, and Yemen. The new data include nearly 2,400 harassment events, nearly 700 demonstration events, over 2,150 political violence events, and over 750 strategic developments. The back-coding release expands ACLED-Religion’s full dataset to nearly 13,000 total events from the beginning of 2020 to the present. This report identifies key trends in religious disorder and repression in the seven countries covered by ACLED-Religion across 2020 and 2021. The report is organized around two sections. The first section examines overall patterns of repression and disorder, showing how macro-trends are driven by surges of events in specific countries. It also provides a focus on protest events and targets of religious repression. The second section explores potential triggers of religious repression, addressing the role of COVID-19 protocols and religious commemorations.
- Topic:
- Religion, Repression, Data, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and North Africa
343. Fact Sheet: Global Demonstrations Against the Russian Invasion of Ukraine
- Author:
- Sam Jones
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
- Abstract:
- Following the Russian invasion, a wave of demonstrations in solidarity with Ukraine spread around the world. Between 24 February and 4 March, ACLED records more than 1,800 demonstrations in support of Ukraine and against Russian aggression globally. During this time, demonstrations were reported across at least 93 countries and territories (see map below). Nearly all of these demonstrations — over 99% — were peaceful (i.e. protesters engaged in neither violence nor destructive activity).
- Topic:
- Solidarity, Conflict, Demonstrations, and Intervention
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Ukraine, Eastern Europe, and Global Focus
344. How to make Indonesia’s sovereign wealth fund work
- Author:
- Kyunghun Kim
- Publication Date:
- 07-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Lowy Institute for International Policy
- Abstract:
- The Indonesian government has established a sovereign wealth fund: the Indonesia Investment Authority (INA). Unlike many other sovereign wealth funds that manage large national savings, INA seeks to attract foreign co-investors to help fund economic development. INA’s near-term role is to purchase assets from heavily-indebted infrastructure-related state enterprises to improve their financial health and allow them to carry out further development projects. INA’s corporate governance arrangements are reasonable on paper. Much will depend on implementation. INA has attracted interest from a variety of international financiers, including state-backed investors from the United States, Japan, United Arab Emirates, and China. Clarifying INA’s investment goals and strengthening external monitoring mechanisms could help attract greater interest.
- Topic:
- Sovereign Wealth Funds, Economy, Investment, and Corporate Governance
- Political Geography:
- Indonesia and Southeast Asia
345. Turning point? Putin, Xi, and the Russian invasion of Ukraine
- Author:
- Bobo Lo
- Publication Date:
- 05-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Lowy Institute for International Policy
- Abstract:
- Putin’s war in Ukraine has highlighted the resilience but also the limitations of Sino–Russian partnership. Far from being an “arc of autocracy”, this is an interests-based relationship between strategically autonomous powers. Foreign policy coordination between China and Russia is limited by their different views of global order. Beijing is invested in a stable international system, albeit one skewed in its favour, whereas Moscow thrives on disorder and uncertainty. Xi Jinping aims to preserve the Sino–Russian partnership while maintaining ties with the West. But Beijing’s balancing act will become harder to sustain as the war continues. The balance of power within the bilateral relationship has tilted sharply towards Beijing. Russia is more reliant on China than ever. The long-term outlook for the relationship is unpromising.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Partnerships, Conflict, and Vladimir Putin
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, and Ukraine
346. Revising down the rise of China
- Author:
- Roland Rajah and Alyssa Leng
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Lowy Institute for International Policy
- Abstract:
- China will likely experience a substantial long-term growth slowdown owing to demographic decline, the limits of capital-intensive growth, and a gradual deceleration in productivity growth. Even with continued broad policy success, our baseline projections suggest annual economic growth will slow to about 3% by 2030 and 2% by 2040, while averaging 2–3% overall from now until 2050. China would still become the world’s largest economy, but it would never enjoy a meaningful lead over the US and would remain far less prosperous and productive per person even by mid-century.
- Topic:
- Demographics, Economy, Economic Growth, and Strategic Competition
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, and United States of America
347. Drug trafficking in the Pacific Islands: The impact of transnational crime
- Author:
- Jose Sousa-Santos
- Publication Date:
- 02-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Lowy Institute for International Policy
- Abstract:
- The Pacific “drug highway” has spilled over into domestic markets for illicit drug consumption and production in the Pacific Islands region. Drug trafficking has evolved significantly with the rise of local actors in transnational criminal networks. Capacity shortfalls and a disconnect between regional law enforcement infrastructure and national law enforcement agencies undermine trust and are detrimental to intelligence sharing and interoperability in cross-border policing efforts. The deportation policies of Australia, New Zealand, and the United States are exacerbating crime and addiction within Pacific nations. They undermine the policy objectives of development partners in the region and will need urgent review.
- Topic:
- Crime, Non State Actors, Law Enforcement, Transnational Actors, and Drug Trafficking
- Political Geography:
- Australia, New Zealand, Asia-Pacific, and United States of America
348. Big data and national security: A guide for Australian policymakers
- Author:
- Miah Hammond-Errey
- Publication Date:
- 02-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Lowy Institute for International Policy
- Abstract:
- Data abundance, digital connectivity, and ubiquitous technology now enable near complete coverage of human lives across the planet, often in real-time. The Covid-19 pandemic, by forcing more interactions online and greater social reliance on technology, has significantly added to the global pool of data. Advances in the scale, application, and commercial uses of data significantly outpace regulation of the big data landscape. Technical and analytical capabilities that are essential for the functioning of societies are increasingly concentrated in the hands of a small number of commercial entities. The implications of big data for surveillance, real or potential interference, and kinetic war are underappreciated in policy and public discussions. Identifying and protecting the uses of critical data should be a national security priority for government on par with safeguarding critical digital infrastructure.
- Topic:
- Government, National Security, Science and Technology, Surveillance, and Data
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
349. The Pandemic Exposes and Exacerbates Existing Problems of Inequality and Polarization
- Author:
- Joshua Kurlantzick
- Publication Date:
- 01-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- East Asia Institute (EAI)
- Abstract:
- During the COVID-19 pandemic, while some democracies (such as Canada and Australia) have been able to respond effectively, the five large democracies of the United States, Brazil, India, Indonesia, and the Philippines have suffered severe effects on public health. In this commentary, Joshua Kurlantzick, a Senior Fellow for Southeast Asia at the Council on Foreign Relations, explains how social and economic inequalities in these countries are the cause of their ineffective responses to the pandemic. He then points out how populist politicians in these countries have exacerbated inequality during the pandemic with their rhetoric and policy. The author then argues that despite political, economic, and social problems in these countries, leaders have an opportunity to alleviate inequality through major democratizing reforms, as there is a public sentiment of wanting to work together to overcome the pandemic.
- Topic:
- Democracy, Inequality, Populism, Public Health, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Indonesia, India, Brazil, Philippines, and United Nations
350. Democratic Backsliding in Indonesia
- Author:
- Luky Sandra Amalia
- Publication Date:
- 01-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- East Asia Institute (EAI)
- Abstract:
- Democracy in Indonesia is in a state of overall decline according to many indicators. The indices commonly point to the issues of weakened democratic institutions, increased discrimination and violence against minorities, and reduced civil liberties in Indonesia for the democratic decline. Luky Sandra Amalia, Associate Researcher at Research Center for Politics, National Research and Innovation Agency, argues that corrupt political officials who have made efforts to weaken the Corruption Eradication Commission (KPK), increase in identity politics for political gain, and the reduced space for freedom of speech are some specific factors that have resulted in this democratic backsliding.
- Topic:
- Corruption, Democracy, Violence, Civil Liberties, and Democratic Backsliding
- Political Geography:
- Indonesia and Southeast Asia
351. How Authoritarian Legacies Play a Role in Shaping Electoral Volatility in Asia
- Author:
- Don S. Lee and Fernando Casel Bertoa
- Publication Date:
- 02-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- East Asia Institute (EAI)
- Abstract:
- High electoral volatility can result in the disillusionment of the democratic system, allowing illiberal politicians and anti-political-establishment parties to gain a foothold. In this briefing, Don S. Lee, an Assistant Professor in the School of Governance and the Department of Public Administration at Sungkyunkwan University, and Fernando Casal Bertoa, an Associate Professor in the School of Politics and International Relations at the University of Nottingham, evaluate the impacts of different authoritarian legacies on electoral volatility across Asia. Their study also analyzes the effect time has on the electoral stability of democracies across varying authoritarian legacies. Finally, they explain how through deliberate routinization of political behavior, political leaders can protect democracy and stabilize party politics, regardless of their country’s authoritarian history.
- Topic:
- Politics, Authoritarianism, Elections, and Democracy
- Political Geography:
- Asia
352. Natural Disasters and Women’s Rights in Vietnam
- Author:
- Trung Xuan Hoang
- Publication Date:
- 02-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- East Asia Institute (EAI)
- Abstract:
- The majority of Vietnamese people live in rural areas and are dependent on agriculture, an industry in which men play a dominant role and is heavily impacted by natural disasters and climate change. Vietnam is also characterized to have high gender inequality and violence against women. Trung Xuan Hoang, a research fellow at the Vietnam Academy of Social Sciences, explores the relationship between natural disasters and women’s empowerment. Through empirical research, he explains that factors that increase women’s power and control or resources, such as participation in labor, access to microcredit, education, and ownership of immovable property, increase women’s empowerment. Data suggest that increased natural disasters cause a fall in agricultural income. The author argues that as a result, men’s influence vis-a-vis women’s in domestic decision-making decreases, meaning that natural disasters increase women’s household power in Vietnam.
- Topic:
- Human Rights, Natural Disasters, Women, and Empowerment
- Political Geography:
- Vietnam and Southeast Asia
353. The Geopolitics of Human Trafficking and Gendered North Korean Migration
- Author:
- Eunyoung Christina Choi
- Publication Date:
- 02-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- East Asia Institute (EAI)
- Abstract:
- According to the “White Paper on Human Rights in North Korea 2021,” human-trafficking targeted at North Korean defectors in China remains a grave issue ? not only are North Korean women sold without their consent, but they are also forced to prostitution at entertainment establishments. In this commentary, Eunyoung Christina Choi, Senior Fellow at the Institute for Peace and Unification Studies (IPUS) at Seoul National University, looks into the dire circumstances North Korean women defectors find themselves in during their pursuit to defect. She explains that the international community’s interest in and measures against the human-trafficking of North Korean female defectors have been dominated by geopolitical interests and have in turn exacerbated women’s prospects to safely defect.
- Topic:
- Women, Borders, and Human Trafficking
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, and North Korea
354. The 2022 Philippine Elections Primer: A Democratic Citizenship Perspective
- Author:
- Anthony Lawrence Borja and Ian Jayson Hecita
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- East Asia Institute (EAI)
- Abstract:
- In regards to the 2022 presidential and vice-presidential elections in Philippines, Anthony Lawrence Borja and Ian Jayson Hecita, Assistant Professorial Lecturers at the Department of Political Science and Development Studies of De La Salle University, analyze the issue of democratic citizenship. The authors state that the prospects of democratization in the Philippines are weak due to resurgent illiberalism among citizens and chronic weaknesses among key liberal democratic institutions. Therefore the importance of promoting strong democratic citizenship is highlighted by the authors as they argue that the absence of an active citizenry, ability to effectively participate in the policy process, leads to the doom of democratization.
- Topic:
- Elections, Democracy, and Citizenship
- Political Geography:
- Philippines and Asia-Pacific
355. After Deterrence: Implications of the Russia-Ukraine War for East Asia
- Author:
- Yang Gyu Kim
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- East Asia Institute (EAI)
- Abstract:
- Notwithstanding explicit warnings of the U.S. and its European allies, Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24th. In this Commentary, Yang Gyu Kim, Executive Director at the East Asia Institute (EAI), identifies the Russia-Ukraine war as a case of deterrence failure from the U.S. and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)’s perspective. He points out weakened U.S. feasibility of military and political punishments against Russia’s Fait Accompli Strategy as the cause behind the escalation of the crisis. Additionally, the author underscores the importance of maintaining the feasibility of punishment in order to deter China and North Korea from launching provocations in East Asia by misperceiving the credibility of the U.S. alliance system’s deterrence posture in East Asia.
- Topic:
- NATO, War, European Union, and Deterrence
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Ukraine, Eastern Europe, and North Korea
356. South Korea’s 2022 Presidential Election: A Vox Populi that is Evenly Divided
- Author:
- Jung Kim
- Publication Date:
- 05-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- East Asia Institute (EAI)
- Abstract:
- During the recent March election, presidential candidate Suk-yeol Yoon of the opposition party overtook candidate Jae-myung Lee of the current ruling party by a close margin. Jung Kim, Professor at the University of North Korean Studies, points out that upon entering office, present-elect Yoon will be faced with the challenges of a divided cabinet, divided government, and divided public. He explains that this is due to extensive partisan mobilization and that the future of Korean democracy lies in the Yoon administration`s response to such multi-level challenges.
- Topic:
- Politics, Elections, Democracy, and Presidential Elections
- Political Geography:
- Asia and North Korea
357. An Assessment of North Korea’s ICBM Technology and South Korea’s Countermeasures
- Author:
- Sangmin Lee
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- East Asia Institute (EAI)
- Abstract:
- In this Commentary, Sangmin Lee, Director of the North Korean Military Research Division at the Korea Institute for Defense Analyses (KIDA), provides an evaluation of North Korea’s ICBM technology, discusses the threat behind North Korea’s development of tactical nuclear weapons, and suggests ways in which South Korea can deter North Korean military threat. While North Korea has accelerated progress in its pursuit towards technological advancements in nuclear weapons and missile capabilities, Dr. Lee claims that ICBM development still remains as a daunting task for North Korea due to difficulties in acquiring technology and strategic materials. Nonetheless, formidable threats lie behind North Korea’s aspirations to secure military superiority on the Korean Peninsula. In this regard, the author states that the “imbalance of fear” between South and North Korea arising from Seoul’s lack of facilities protective of nuclear attacks is a key issue and underscores the need for Seoul to offset the discrepancy and prepare in advance.
- Topic:
- Weapons of Mass Destruction, Alliance, and Deterrence
- Political Geography:
- Asia, South Korea, North Korea, and United States of America
358. Political Polarization in Asia: Cleavages and Agencies of Polarization in India, the Philippines, South Korea, and Thailand
- Author:
- Sook Jong Lee
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- East Asia Institute (EAI)
- Abstract:
- Political polarization is a process of simplifying politics by presenting either-or-choices to the public. In many cases, polarization damages democracy by dividing the electorate into two mutually mistrustful camps. Political polarization is mainly used by political elites, including government and party leaders, as a strategy to mobilize their supporters and concentrate their power. Based on the literature of political polarization, EAI Senior Fellow Sook Jong Lee (professor at Sungkyunkwan University) examines four Asian case countries (India, the Philippines, South Korea, and Thailand). The author notes that characteristics of political polarization differ from country to country, which is evidenced through the division of political ideology during various Thai military coups and the separation between the Hindu and Muslim communities in India. She also warns against the possible aftermaths of political polarization such as the breakdown or erosion of democracy.
- Topic:
- Politics, Democracy, Polarization, and Democratic Backsliding
- Political Geography:
- India, Asia, South Korea, Philippines, and Thailand
359. The 2022 Philippine Elections: Religion and Politics amid Democratic Uncertainty Commentary·Issue Briefing | 2022-04-19
- Author:
- David T. Buckley
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- East Asia Institute (EAI)
- Abstract:
- The Philippines is the only Catholic country in Asia and as such, the majority of Filipinos are adherents to Catholicism. Professor David T. Buckley from the University of Louisville discusses the relationship between democracy and religion in the Philippines. It is evident from recent history that religious networks are seen as the main guardians of Philippine democracy, requiring candidates to be morally honest and serve the country. However, Professor Buckley states that, though not the only cause, religion also played an important role in democratic transition. He further suggests that religious networks must respond to a new political reality that has changed both religiously and politically since the mythologized days of the 1980s.
- Topic:
- Religion, Elections, Democracy, and Catholic Church
- Political Geography:
- Philippines and Asia-Pacific
360. Political Debacle in Pakistan Detached from People’s Life
- Author:
- Haider Kaleem
- Publication Date:
- 05-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- East Asia Institute (EAI)
- Abstract:
- The vote of no confidence that resulted in Imran Khan`s dismissal is a significant event in Pakistan`s political and constitutional history. After PM Khan was ousted, Shehbaz Sharif took over as prime minister. Under these political conditions, Haider Kaleem, a manager of the Nigar Ahmad Research and Advocacy Fund at the South Asia Partnership ? Pakistan, states that neither the previous opposition nor the current administration appear to have a comprehensive strategy in place to rid Pakistan of the primary problems that threaten the masses. However, as Pakistan faces socio-economic crises, he argues that despite assuming victory in the elections, the new government should make efforts on various fronts to restore the system destroyed by Khan`s policies and not lose public trust.
- Topic:
- Elections, Democracy, Prime Minister, and Imran Khan
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan and South Asia
361. Sri Lanka’s Arab Spring Moment: Can Asia’s Oldest Democracy Weather the Crisis?
- Author:
- Niranjan Sahoo
- Publication Date:
- 05-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- East Asia Institute (EAI)
- Abstract:
- Sri Lanka, Asia`s oldest democracy, faces political and economic crisis, and protests continue on the streets day after day. Niranjan Sashoo, a Senior Fellow at the Observer Research Foundation, discusses the deeper structural factors and historical background behind the political and economic crisis in this issue briefing. Dr. Sahoo states that it`s hard to predict where Sri Lanka`s future democracy will go, but the long-running rule of the Rajapaksa family is likely to end as protests continue to demand the resignation of President Gotabaya Rajapaksa. He argues that the resignation of the pro-China Rajapaksa family is an opportunity for Sri Lanka to move away from China`s influence and deepen ties with major democracies in Asia and the West.
- Topic:
- Corruption, Democracy, and Populism
- Political Geography:
- South Asia and Sri Lanka
362. The Inadequacy of Nepal’s Democracy for Marginalized Peoples
- Author:
- Pradip Pariyar
- Publication Date:
- 06-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- East Asia Institute (EAI)
- Abstract:
- This May, the Nepalese government released its annual budget for the 2022-23 fiscal year and carried out the second iteration of local level elections since the institution of its new constitution in 2015. In the wake of these events, Pradip Payar, Executive Chairperson of the Samata Foundation, provides an overview of the current state of human rights for minorities and marginalized populations in Nepal, addressing caste-based discrimination against the Dalit population, ongoing challenges to transitional justice for victims of the People’s War, gender-based violence against women and girls, and issues affecting the LGBTQI+ community. Pariyar concludes that, though the new constitution provided hope for an improved future for Dalits and other marginalized communities, the reality of change has been woefully inadequate.
- Topic:
- War, Democracy, LGBT+, Marginalization, and Dalits
- Political Geography:
- South Asia and Nepal
363. Transitional Justice and Reconciliation in Asia: Lessons Learned from Korea, Sri Lanka, and Taiwan
- Author:
- Hun Joon Kim
- Publication Date:
- 07-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- East Asia Institute (EAI)
- Abstract:
- In this issue briefing, Dr. Hun Joon Kim, professor of Political Science and International Relations at Korea University, provides an overview and analysis of the ADRN’s Working Paper Series on Transitional Justice and Reconciliation in Asia. He finds that in Sri Lanka, Korea, and Taiwan, past instances of human rights violations were complex and unique; perpetrators, international dynamics, and the inevitable “politicization” of justice efforts have each created unique obstacles to and nuances in the pursuit of justice. Kim argues, however, that a few conclusions can be drawn from the three cases: first, that the trend in Asia is towards justice and away from impunity; second, that the transitional justice process is gradual, winding, and cannot be solved in one fell swoop; and third, that transitional justice is not simply a state-led process-the pursuit of reconciliation involves the entire nation: government, civil society, and civilians.
- Topic:
- Human Rights, Transitional Justice, Accountability, Reconciliation, and Reparations
- Political Geography:
- Taiwan, Asia, Sri Lanka, and Korea
364. The role of Nagorno-Karabakh in the shaping of Armenian and Azeri identity
- Author:
- Ricardo Juan Torres
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Argentine Council for International Relations (CARI)
- Abstract:
- The paper discusses the effect of the 19th century rebirth of Armenian nationalism in the Ottoman or Western Armenia and Russian or Eastern Armenia and that of Azeri nationalism in Russian Azerbaijan with its ramifications in Iran and Ottoman Turkey on the formation of Armenian and Azeri identity from the late 1800s to the present and the key role of Nagorno-Karabakh - called Artsakh by the Armenians - from the beginning of the 20th century, using the theories of Anthony D. Smith.
- Topic:
- Nationalism, Territorial Disputes, Conflict, and Identity
- Political Geography:
- Caucasus, Eastern Europe, Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Nagorno-Karabakh
365. Latin America Reacts to the Russian Invasion of Ukraine*
- Author:
- Ariel González Levaggi and Nicolás Albertoni
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Argentine Council for International Relations (CARI)
- Abstract:
- The post-Cold War international order drastically changed after the Russian military intervention in Ukraine. Now Latin America must face an international order marked by competition between great powers, fragmentation, and crisis. Latin American countries' relationships with Russia will bear an additional cost.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Military Intervention, Crisis Management, International Order, and Fragmentation
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Ukraine, and Latin America
366. Foresight and its application in ministries of foreign affairs
- Author:
- Javier Ignacio Santander
- Publication Date:
- 05-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Argentine Council for International Relations (CARI)
- Abstract:
- Based on previous research regarding foresight capabilities of ministries of foreign affairs, this work focuses on the modern concept of foresight and of its application to foreign relations. Specifically, it aims to provide a summary of similiarities observed in the way in which foreign affairs ministries have developed foresight capacity.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Government, and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
367. The Russian invasion to Ukraine: An agribusiness perspective
- Author:
- Hugo Krajnc
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Argentine Council for International Relations (CARI)
- Abstract:
- It is quite relevant that the arguments used to justify the Russian invasion to Ukraine do not highlight economic components. Although it may be difficult to assert that such decision was also driven by economic issues, it is quite hard as well to deny that those were not involved, given the traditional Russian geopolitical perspective.
- Topic:
- War, Economy, Conflict, and Agribusiness
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe
368. The 3+3 Regional Cooperation and Georgia: What Is at Stake?
- Author:
- Soso Dzamukashvili
- Publication Date:
- 01-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
- Abstract:
- During the past decades, many initiatives have been proposed for regional cooperation in the South Caucasus, mainly coming from Georgia and Turkey. In 1999, the then Georgian President, Eduard Shevardnadze, conceived the idea of the ‘Peaceful Caucasus Initiative’ with an objective to defend the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the states in the region. In the following year, a similar proposal was laid down by the then Turkish Prime Minister, Suleyman Demirel, who intended to create the ‘Stability Pact for the Caucasus’ initiative. Later in 2008, the then Prime Minister of Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, floated plans to establish the ‘Caucasus Stability and Cooperation Platform’ that would bring the three states of the South Caucasus together with Turkey and Russia in order to tap the sustainable economic development of the region. In 2010, the then Georgian President, Mikheil Saakashvili, promoted the idea of the ‘United Caucasus’ platform (Kaleji 2021). Despite coming up with a plethora of ambitious cooperation initiatives, none of the leaders managed to push their initiatives to come into motion.
- Topic:
- Security, Development, Diplomacy, and Regional Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- Turkey, Georgia, and South Caucasus
369. Major Non-NATO Ally Status - Chance for Survival Or A Vision Doomed to Failure?
- Author:
- Nino Lezhava
- Publication Date:
- 01-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
- Abstract:
- The ongoing war in Ukraine has confirmed that NATO as an institution of 30 members still lacks the readiness to integrate Ukraine and Georgia into the Alliance, continuing to avoid confrontation with Russia.1 The unprecedented tragedy taking place in Ukraine was not a surprise and there were several lessons for the West to learn such as the August War in Georgia in 2008, Russia’s invasion of Crimea in 2014, the open letters and statements from Russia’s president drawing a new world order,2 Russian military drills and so-called peacekeepers in and around neighboring countries. Nevertheless, 14 years have passed since the NATO Bucharest Summit3 and Georgia and Ukraine are still paying for their independence and sovereignty with blood. Meanwhile, NATO’s promise of eventual membership for both countries is fading.4 Russia’s so-called “military operation” has revealed that the Kremlin does not need Casus Belli to start waging a full-scale war against independent countries and, now more than ever, Ukraine and Georgia5 need to strengthen their defense capabilities and search for an alternative foreign security policy until NATO provides well-deserved places for them. In this light, many believe that in the absence of NATO unity, the United States is the only strategic partner that can protect Ukraine and Georgia by designating them as Major Non-NATO Allies (MNNA).6 Indeed, the impact of a timely provided designation could have a decisive political and practical role for Ukraine and Georgia’s security, especially when both countries7 are reliant on US defense sales and actively cooperate with the US while transforming their defense capabilities.8
- Topic:
- NATO, Alliance, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia and Ukraine
370. How Russia’s War Against Ukraine Will Affect Abkhazia and the Tskhinvali Region
- Author:
- Badri Belkania
- Publication Date:
- 01-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
- Abstract:
- On February 21, 2022, Russian President, Vladimir Putin, signed the document recognizing independence of the so-called Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics (Lenta, 2022) which was officially supported by the de facto leaders of Abkhazia and the Tskhinvali region. The de facto leadership of the Tskhinvali region, which recognized the DNR and LNR back in 2014, hailed President Putin’s decision of February 21 as an «expected, reasonable and justified» step (RIA Novosti, 2022). Russia’s move was also lauded by the de facto President of Abkhazia, Aslan Bzhania, who said the decision was «fair, geopolitically adequate» and in line with modern challenges and threats (TASS, 2022). In a few days, the de facto leader of Abkhazia signed the document recognizing independence of the so-called Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics (Ekho Kavkaza, 2022). The recognition of Donetsk and Luhansk is in itself a remarkable geopolitical step on the part of Russia which also brings significant changes in terms of Abkhazia and the Tskhinvali region. However, within days of its recognition, it became clear that Moscow needed the move as a launch pad for war in Ukraine. Consequently, the recognition of the de facto republics was accompanied by a Russian military aggression in Ukraine which, from the prospective of Sukhumi and Tskhinvali, changes even more than just the recognition of the Donbas region. As the domestic and foreign policy characteristics of Sukhumi and Tskhinvali differ, both will be discussed separately in this article.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Territorial Disputes, Geopolitics, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Ukraine, Eastern Europe, and Abkhazia
371. Armenia-Turkey Normalization Process: Opportunities and Barriers
- Author:
- Nino Chanadiri
- Publication Date:
- 01-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
- Abstract:
- Armenia-Turkey relations have experienced numerous tensions over the decades associated with both the historic issues between the two nations and contemporary regional developments. Turkey’s refusal to recognize the mass killings of Armenians as a genocide1 in the Ottoman Empire during World War I has long been an important difficulty in bilateral relations. However, relations significantly worsened during the Nagorno-Karabakh war between Armenia and Azerbaijan in the 1990s. As a response to Armenia’s capture of the territories surrounding NagornoKarabakh, Turkey closed the border with Armenia in 1993 in support of its ally Azerbaijan.2 The attempts to normalize relations did not have any fruitful outcome in the past decades which resulted in the two countries not having diplomatic or commercial relations for almost 30 years.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Territorial Disputes, Geopolitics, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Turkey and Armenia
372. Importance of Maintaining and Strengthening NATO’s Nuclear Deterrence: A Historical Overview
- Author:
- Megi Benia
- Publication Date:
- 01-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
- Abstract:
- Nuclear deterrence is a core pillar of NATO’s defense and deterrence policy. At the same time, the Alliance, which is not a formal party to any arms control negotiation, has a long-standing commitment to an active policy in arms control, disarmament and non-proliferation. The Alliance has been regularly conducting consultations in different fora - the North Atlantic Council, the Nuclear Planning Group and the Defense Planning Committee – to constantly address the ongoing challenges of the arms control architecture. Currently, NATO successfully maintains the balance between its nuclear deterrence and disarmament aspirations. However, it does not represent an easy task for the organization of 30 member states. Over the years, NATO has suffered from a serious nuclear identity crisis. Many Allies tried to increase the Alliance’s arms-control profile while others gradually opposed any further changes in this direction. The positioning of NATO in this regard has been constantly shaped by significant shifts in the international security environment. Despite the contested view on maintaining NATO’s nuclear deterrence, the Alliance managed to evolve as a nuclear alliance, effectively ensuring peace and security in the Euro-Atlantic area. Today, European security faces the biggest security challenge since World War II when one state wages an unprovoked and unjustified war against another sovereign and independent state on the doorsteps of NATO, threatening the world with the use of nuclear weapons. In this unprecedented environment, it is important for NATO to maintain and further strengthen its nuclear deterrence posture to ensure peace and stability for generations to come. Therefore, this article will demonstrate a historical overview of the evolution of NATO as a nuclear alliance and the importance of strengthened nuclear deterrence and conventional defense capabilities.
- Topic:
- Security, NATO, Nuclear Weapons, History, and Deterrence
- Political Geography:
- Europe
373. War, Censorship and Public Opinion in Russia: Putin’s Struggle at Home and Abroad
- Author:
- Eka Javakhishvili
- Publication Date:
- 01-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
- Abstract:
- Russia’s “special military operation,” as the Kremlin calls its full-scale war against Ukraine, has been underway for the second month in a row. However, the Russian army has not been able to cope with the combat tasks as effectively as Kremlin leaders originally planned. The incredible resilience and courage of the Ukrainian nation has fascinated the world but it has become an additional challenge for the Putin regime. In addition to the fact that the Russian government had to radically change its officially declared military objectives, it also faced the need to tighten measures to maintain control over the situation inside the country. At this stage, the Kremlin has to take effective steps both inside and outside of the country in order to fulfill Putin’s imperialist ambitions.
- Topic:
- Security, War, Public Opinion, Censorship, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe
374. China - A Non-neutral Party in the Russo-Ukrainian War
- Author:
- Medea Ivaniadze
- Publication Date:
- 01-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
- Abstract:
- In the Russo-Ukrainian war, we cannot call the position of one of the main challenges of the 21st century, communist China, “neutral”. Beijing’s position was obvious even before the war: it is pro-Russian, clearly antiWestern, and especially anti-American. China does not condemn Russia’s actions in Ukraine, nor does it call it an invasion. At the same time, reports have emerged of the prospect of Beijing providing military assistance to Moscow, and it is not beyond imagination that China will also help Moscow avoid the sanctions. The course of the war, and time, will show China’s level of support for its strategic partner, Russia. However, despite Moscow’s support and negative attitude towards the West, Beijing will still act according to its long-term strategic goals, and if China distances itself from Russia on specific issues, it will not be because of solidarity with Ukraine, but for its own strategic interests.
- Topic:
- Security, Sanctions, Military Affairs, Partnerships, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe
375. Economic Consequences of Sanctions on Russia
- Author:
- Davit Shatakishvili
- Publication Date:
- 01-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
- Abstract:
- Russia’s military intervention in Ukraine, coupled with Western political support for Ukraine, was followed by a tough economic response through an unprecedented package of sanctions against Russia set forth by the West. Their decision to do so seeks to make Russia pay an economic price for its military aggression, aiming to reduce its economic and martial capabilities, which are currently costing the lives of thousands of innocent people. The sanctions have already had quite severe economic consequences for Russia, but it is interesting to see whether they will achieve the West’s political goals and push President Putin to suspend the military aggression. Generally, a medium- to long-term period is required to see the effects of sanctions, and, currently, despite heavy economic losses, Russia is managing to coexist with the restrictions. Today, Russia is experiencing its biggest economic downturn since the end of the Cold War. The World Bank estimates that gross domestic product in Russia will reduce by 11% in 2022 (World Bank, 2022), while the International Monetary Fund forecasts this figure to be 8.5% (IMF, 2022). According to some estimates, the economic scale of the reduction may even reach 15% (IIF, 2022). Clearly, this largely depends on the potential consequences of the sanctions already imposed and the possibility of enacting new sanctions, including in terms of energy embargoes. As a result of the global economic crisis of 2008, the Russian economy shrank by about 8%, and now this figure is almost twice as high. Consequently, we can get some idea of its scale. The losses caused by sanctions will become more visible and tangible over time, resulting in much more severe social and economic effects in the coming years. According to the International Finance Institute, Russia will have lost the wealth it generated over the last 15 years by the end of 2023 (IIF, 2022). One of the main reasons for this will be reduced domestic demand, and if the trade-related sanction package is expanded, exports will fall further than expected, which in turn will lead to a sharp decline in budget revenues. Clearly, the Russian military aggression has also caused global economic consequences, such as rising prices for basic consumer goods, disruption of supply chains, and delays in international trade. However, since invading Ukraine, Russia’s financial losses have been high. It is interesting to take a look at what actual consequences the Russian Federation has faced in terms of sanctions, and how the country will be able to continue coexistence with the restrictions and expand its own aggressive foreign policy.
- Topic:
- Economics, Sanctions, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe
376. Putin’s Infantrymen: Kadyrov’s Involvement in the 2022 Ukrainian Conflict
- Author:
- Aleksandre Kvakhadze and Cerwyn Moore
- Publication Date:
- 01-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
- Abstract:
- External involvement in the Ukrainian conflict, particularly pro-Russian volunteerism, has been a prominent feature of the Russian war effort. Chechen involvement in the conflict is more complex than is often reported. Pro-Russian groups known as kadyrovtsy serve a number of functions, including bolstering Kadyrov’s cult of personality in Chechnya, although their military significance is negligible. Chechen volunteer groups are involved in support of the Ukrainian military: this raises issues about the role of foreign fighters and volunteerism. The political implications of pro-Kremlin Chechen volunteerism in Ukraine are linked to fierce institutional infighting within Russia.
- Topic:
- Conflict, Vladimir Putin, Foreign Fighters, Russia-Ukraine War, and Ramzan Kadyrov
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Ukraine, Eastern Europe, and Chechnya
377. Military Effects Of Economic Sanctions On Russia
- Author:
- Davit Shatakishvili
- Publication Date:
- 01-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
- Abstract:
- Russia’s military industry is a fundamental factor of its national power. The enterprises operating in its defense sector are largely state-owned. Consequently, Russia’s sizeable military corporations and their subsidiary organizations operate not on the principles of a competitive domestic market, which is one of the key foundations of technological progress, but their main goal is to pursue Moscow’s political interests and ensure the stability of the regime. Accordingly, along with military capabilities, having a powerful economic leverage in the form of energy resources, encourages Russia not only to pursue its own economic interests but also intimidate neighboring countries and extort their territories to satisfy its imperialist intentions. The responsibility of the defense industry in Moscow’s current governing model is exactly on what the Russian government itself has based its legitimacy - military modernization, restoring Russia’s strength and greatness. One of its ill-favored manifestations is the military aggression in Ukraine which is claiming the lives of thousands of innocent people. The unprecedented scale of sanctions imposed by the West will clearly affect Moscow’s defense capabilities but the only questions are - when and to what extent? Russian military production, on the one hand, helps the country to pursue an aggressive foreign policy and, on the other hand, arms exports are an important source of country’s budgetary revenues. At the same time, this allows it to exert political influence over the purchasing states. The collapse of the Russian attack on Ukraine may not only sacrifice the hegemonic goals of the latter but also lead to the loss of existing and potential customers of its military weapons. There is no doubt that Russia is experiencing colossal military losses as a result of the war and, at the same time, questions are being raised about the quality of its arms and heavy equipment. Until now, there has been a consensus that Russian armaments were a viable and affordable alternative to Western weapons, although this statement could also be another victim of the war. As a result of the sanctions, Russia faced not only financial but also technical problems. In addition to Western countries, Asia’s leading technology powers have restricted Russia’s access to critical components needed for military production. Existing restrictions apply to advanced technologies such as semiconductors, telecommunications equipment, software and encryption, microelectronics, aviation systems, oil extraction equipment and other manufacturing components. In this context, it is important to discuss the impact that economic sanctions may have on Russia’s military capabilities, its recovery prospects and its aggressive foreign policy in the future.
- Topic:
- Sanctions, Military Affairs, Economy, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe
378. Georgia and the Baltics: Relations Amidst the War in Ukraine
- Author:
- Nino Chanadiri
- Publication Date:
- 01-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
- Abstract:
- Georgia and the Baltic states – Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia – have a history of friendship that is strengthened through the common Soviet past and shared experiences of Russian influence and violence as well as by the common vision of the contemporary Russian threat towards Eastern Europe. All of this creates the shared desire in these countries to put themselves as far from the Russian sphere of influence as possible. The Baltic states along with Ukraine (and Belarus) are neighbors of Russia and the touch point between Europe and Russia1 while Georgia is located between Russia and Turkey and performs a significant role in linking them. The partnership between Georgia and the Baltic states in terms of decreasing Russian influence in Eastern Europe, as one of the joint aims, requires the cooperation to be on the highest of levels in order for it to be successful. The partnership not only stands on the common past of the four countries but also on their common security visions and shared values which can ultimately contribute to making the partnership stable and long lasting.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, Regional Cooperation, and War
- Political Geography:
- Lithuania, Estonia, Georgia, Latvia, and Baltic States
379. NATO-Georgian Relations in the Coming Decades
- Author:
- Irakli Sirbiladze
- Publication Date:
- 01-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
- Abstract:
- At the 2022 Madrid Summit, NATO unveiled its new Strategic Concept.1 The update of the 2010 Strategic Concept2 was naturally necessitated by the momentous developments seen in the 2010s such as, among others, Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014, the more outward-looking and ambitiously rising China, Brexit, the election of Donald Trump and its attendant implications for transatlantic relations as well as the election of Joe Biden as the President of the United States and the reinvigoration of the transatlantic and the democracy agenda. The renewal of the Strategic Concept seemed apt amid Russia’s re-invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 that put NATO-Russian relations at a historic low. NATO was forced to let go of its desire to forge ‘a true strategic partnership’ with Russia and instead referred to Russia as “the most significant and direct threat to the Allies’ security and to peace and stability in the Euro-Atlantic area.”3 NATO’s new agenda for 2030 is also full of issues that go beyond the immediate geopolitical challenges. Issues such as climate change, technology, healthcare, space and cyberspace are equally significant for the Alliance’s ability to meet the challenges of the new decade.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, NATO, and Sovereignty
- Political Geography:
- Caucasus and Georgia
380. A New and Better Security Order for Europe
- Author:
- Rajan Menon
- Publication Date:
- 02-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Defense Priorities
- Abstract:
- Far-reaching changes in the global balance of power and Europe’s security environment call for a new U.S. strategy toward Europe—for the benefit of Americans and Europeans alike. European states should take deliberate steps toward autonomy in defense, which the U.S. should foster by reducing its military presence in, and security commitments to, Europe, gradually and in coordination with its NATO allies. The eventual goal should be to eliminate permanent U.S. military deployments in Europe. Europe, particularly France and Germany, possesses the material wherewithal to balance Russia’s military power. What Europe lacks is the motivation, something it will not acquire so long as it can count on a blanket, open-ended American commitment. Europe’s stability and security demand a regional order into which Russia—the continent’s strongest single military power—is eventually integrated, rather than one from which it has become progressively alienated. The post-Cold War crises over Ukraine arose from complex circumstances; but one of them has been the absence of a pan-European security order that extends from the Atlantic to the Urals and contains provisions for engagement with Russia, including arms control and crisis management, as well as confidence-building measures designed to reduce the risk of war. Restructuring Europe’s security order to promote European strategic autonomy will improve, not harm, trans-Atlantic relations and cooperation. The U.S. and Canada are bound to Europe by centuries-old ties—historical, cultural, and economic. While the extent and nature of these ties will necessarily change over time, their existence does not depend on an American willingness to serve indefinitely as Europe’s prime defender.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, NATO, and Strategic Stability
- Political Geography:
- Europe, France, Germany, North America, and United States of America
381. NATO Should Defend Europe, Not Pivot to Asia
- Author:
- Jan Gerber
- Publication Date:
- 02-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Defense Priorities
- Abstract:
- In 2021, the U.K., France, and Germany deployed 21 naval ships to the Indo-Pacific with a stated aim of helping the U.S. shoulder the burden of collective security and sustaining the “rules-based international order.” Naval deployments by the U.K., France, and Germany are symbolic and unlikely to affect the balance of power in Asia. A European pivot to the Indo-Pacific draws scarce attention and resources away from defense issues in Europe. Instead of encouraging Asian forays, the U.S. should encourage its European allies to assume primary responsibility for European security, freeing the United States to focus on the Pacific, if needed.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, and NATO
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom, Europe, Asia, France, Germany, and Indo-Pacific
382. To Prevent War and Secure Ukraine, Make Ukraine Neutral
- Author:
- Stephen W. Van Evera
- Publication Date:
- 02-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Defense Priorities
- Abstract:
- The U.S.-NATO-Russia-Ukraine crisis could be resolved by a grand bargain among the parties that defines Ukraine as a neutral state. Neutrality deals worked well in the past to forestall Franco-British conflict over Belgium in the 1830s and East-West conflict over Finland and Austria in the Cold War. The Belgian, Finnish, and Austrian neutrality deals enhanced the security of the states they made neutral. Neutrality was an asset for Belgium, Finland, and Austria, not a handicap. Major powers never calmly accept the close approach to their borders of unfriendly powers or alliances. Russia is no exception. It will not accept a settlement that leaves open the possibility of Ukraine in NATO or NATO in Ukraine. Hence, a neutrality solution is both sufficient and necessary to resolve the current crisis. Ukraine is not worth a costly confrontation for the U.S. Hence, U.S. leaders should be open to compromise. If compromise proves elusive, the U.S. should not pay high costs or run large risks to impose a deal on its terms, as it has higher priorities at home and elsewhere.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, NATO, Alliance, Conflict, and Crisis Management
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Ukraine
383. Apply the Logic of the Afghanistan Withdrawal to Syria
- Author:
- Natalia Armbruster
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Defense Priorities
- Abstract:
- The logic President Biden used for removing U.S. troops from Afghanistan applies to Syria. Since a U.S. intervention should be defined by clear, achievable goals, and since long-range strikes, instead of occupying forces, can accomplish U.S. counterterrorism goals, there is no good case for keeping U.S. troops in Syria either. Around 900 U.S. forces currently occupy territory in eastern and southern Syria, risking conflict with Syrian forces and local militias, as well as Russian, Iranian, and Turkish forces. ISIS’s territorial caliphate in Syria was eliminated in 2019. The few, small, remote areas the remnants of ISIS now hold are largely within territory held by Syrian government forces. Local forces can fight the remnants of ISIS. None of the other standard rationales for keeping U.S. forces in Syria—protecting the Kurds, countering Iran and Russia, unseating the Assad regime—justifies keeping troops in Syria either.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Islamic State, Military Intervention, Syrian War, and Joe Biden
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, Middle East, Syria, and United States of America
384. The Wisdom of U.S. Military Withdrawal from Afghanistan
- Author:
- Andrew Doris
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Defense Priorities
- Abstract:
- Afghanistan was not Korea. False analogies to peacetime military garrisons cheapen war and conflate wildly different forms of “support” to U.S. allies. War in Afghanistan was costly—to taxpayers, to civilians, to American soft power, to democratic legitimacy, and to the West’s strategic attention. Thus, withdrawal saved a fortune, saved lives, aided America’s reputation, honored democratic and constitutional principles, and focused Western strategists. War was not protecting Americans from terrorism. Keeping troops in but one of many places terrorists may operate did not meaningfully reduce Americans’ microscopic risk of being harmed in a terrorist attack. War was not helping Afghanistan. Democracy is a strong word for what U.S. forces propped up. Far from maintaining stability, the continued presence of those forces only prolonged armed struggle against a corrupt rentier state, impeding organic or sustainable long-term development. Credibility is highly contextual and unaffected by admitting defeat after 20 years of futile effort. If anything, the resources freed up by withdrawal make the United States better able to honor other commitments.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Terrorism, Military Affairs, Taliban, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, South Asia, and United States of America
385. Raising the Minimum: Explaining China’s Nuclear Buildup
- Author:
- Lyle J. Goldstein
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Defense Priorities
- Abstract:
- China’s nuclear buildup, consisting of new ICBMs, submarine-launched weapons, a new generation of strategic bombers, and advances in hypersonic weapons, implies a significant recalibration of Beijing’s traditional “minimum deterrence” strategy. Beijing deliberated for decades about whether to increase its nuclear arsenal, and it finally seems to be doing so, at least partially in response to the precipitous decline in U.S.-China relations, U.S. initiatives to develop ballistic missile defense, and U.S. nuclear doctrine. China is not bidding for numerical nuclear superiority against the United States with its buildup. Rather, China is likely looking to secure its “second strike” deterrence forces and negate any perception of U.S. nuclear predominance to avoid being coerced by the United States, especially with respect to Taiwan. China’s buildup reflects a strengthening of its deterrent and thus does not contradict China’s long-time policy of no first use (NFU). Beijing wants decision-makers in Washington to recognize its credible deterrent. The United States should both preserve strong nuclear deterrent forces and avoid an overreaction to China’s buildup. U.S. nuclear modernization should focus on survivability and be accompanied by attempts at dialogue, arms control, and the development of crisis management mechanisms.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Nuclear Weapons, Crisis Management, and Deterrence
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, and United States of America
386. How Militarily Useful Would Taiwan Be to China?
- Author:
- Mike Sweeney
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Defense Priorities
- Abstract:
- The military value of Taiwan to China should be viewed in the aggregate. There are detriments that could come with seizing the island in addition to advantages for China’s military position. Taiwan is likely to be of greater utility to China in consolidating its hold over the East and South China Seas, as opposed to projecting power deep into the Pacific Ocean. Basing sensors on Taiwan would enhance the effective range of China’s anti-access and area denial (A2/AD) capabilities against mobile targets, like U.S. aircraft carriers. The technical deficiencies of Chinese nuclear submarines will limit the advantages of occupying Taiwan in terms of undersea warfare, but there could be gains with respect to operation of China’s conventionally powered submarines. Depending on the depth of resistance China encounters, force requirements for permanently garrisoning Taiwan could place major stress on Chinese military and security forces.
- Topic:
- Security, Nuclear Weapons, Strategic Competition, and Military
- Political Geography:
- China, Taiwan, and Asia
387. Bases, Logistics, and the Problem of Temptation in the Middle East
- Author:
- Benjamin Denison
- Publication Date:
- 05-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Defense Priorities
- Abstract:
- The wisdom of making wars easier depends on the wisdom of the wars. Rapid military response to all global trouble may sound good, but it can tempt policymakers to intervene even for non-vital interests. U.S. military bases and logistics hubs in and near the Middle East are the primary examples—they make foolish wars too easy to start. Maintaining the ability to use rapid military force in the region has become an end unto itself, unmoored from any clear vital strategic interest. Closing bases will make wars more challenging to start, which will help spur public debate about potential interventions due to the transparent upfront costs required. This will give diplomacy an opportunity to return as the primary policy option in the region. This recommendation is consistent with the U.S. Constitution’s logic. Democracy’s benefit for foreign policymaking is its ability to consider many options and give more time to think through various proposals.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Military Affairs, and Strategic Interests
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and United States of America
388. Deterring a Chinese Invasion of Taiwan: Upholding the Status Quo
- Author:
- Peter Harris
- Publication Date:
- 05-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Defense Priorities
- Abstract:
- The U.S. has a goal to avoid a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, but the overriding U.S. interest is to avoid a ruinous war with China. The imperative to avoid a conflict with China should take priority for U.S. leaders. Proposals to deter China by bolstering U.S. military deployments in the Western Pacific are unlikely to succeed and fraught with danger. China has advantages in terms of geographical proximity to Taiwan and superior commitment to resolving the issue on favorable terms. The United States should not commit to fighting a great-power war at a time of China’s choosing. The Taiwanese obviously have the strongest interest in deterring a Chinese invasion of their island. Regional powers such as Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, and Australia have the next-strongest interests in preserving stability in East Asia. These actors should do the heavy lifting in deterring China. The U.S. should encourage Taiwan and other regional actors to develop their own means of deterring a Chinese invasion. Working with others, Taiwan has the capacity to inflict severe costs upon Beijing in the event of an armed attack. If calibrated correctly, Taiwan and others might convince Beijing that the various costs of invasion—economic sanctions, opprobrium, military balancing—outweigh the benefits and thus deter China from invading. America’s role should be to support Taiwanese-led efforts to deter China while working to convince all sides that the status quo is sustainable and the U.S. remains committed to its longstanding One China policy. This is the best chance of preventing a war in the Taiwan Strait.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Deterrence, Military, Status Quo, and Invasion
- Political Geography:
- China, Taiwan, and Asia
389. Hypotheses on the Implications of the Ukraine-Russia War
- Author:
- Barry R. Posen
- Publication Date:
- 06-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Defense Priorities
- Abstract:
- Structural realism is a useful tool to examine the implications of the war in Ukraine for global politics. Because structural realism emphasizes the anarchic nature of international relations, it suggests the war is unsurprising, a reminder that states still compete for security, sometimes violently, and the prudent will prepare for it with tools for self-preservation. The realist lens also sees lessons for nuclear deterrence: The prospect of mutual nuclear destruction constrains great power war and has limited U.S. and NATO support for Ukraine. Other states may take note and seek their own nuclear deterrents. The war demonstrates some limits of economic interdependence, which not only failed to pacify Russia, but also left Russia exposed to economic coercion, in a way both it and China may look to avoid in the future. Other important lessons for states from a realist perspective include the importance of military power—large, capable armies and the enduring advantages of defensive warfare, especially when infused with nationalism. The war leaves the “liberal international order,” a byproduct of the eroding post-Cold War U.S. power position, looking threadbare, but it is thus far reviving the U.S. Cold War coalition—a less liberal grouping—which could prove useful in dealing with China.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, NATO, Sanctions, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Eurasia, and Ukraine
390. Ukraine-Russia War Military Analysis
- Author:
- Daniel L. Davis
- Publication Date:
- 07-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Defense Priorities
- Abstract:
- In the opening phase of its invasion of Ukraine, Russian armed forces made major errors in both the operational and tactical realm, costing the lives of thousands of its troops. Ukraine, by contrast, performed well above expectations and brought the Russian offensive against Kyiv and Kharkiv to a halt. Russia subsequently redeployed a major portion of its combat power, away from Kyiv and Kharkiv, to reinforce its attack on Donbas. This shift plays to Russia’s strengths and exposes Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF) to greater risk. Russian forces have made slow but methodical progress on the northern shoulder of the Battle of Donbas, putting 10,000 UAF at risk of encirclement in the Sievierodonetsk pocket, like the loss they suffered at Mariupol. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky declared Ukraine will not stop fighting until all Ukrainian territory has been liberated.1 To have a chance of accomplishing that objective, Ukraine would likely need to recruit and train an additional 100,000 troops, at least, a task that would take 12–18 months, and equip its forces with a comprehensive set of modern, heavy weaponry, provided by the West, numbering in the thousands of armored vehicles and associated weaponry. There is great risk for Ukraine in undertaking such an attempt. It is unclear whether NATO will provide sufficient modern weapons or whether Ukraine can successfully hold off Russia while also recruiting and training so many more troops. If Russia defeats Ukraine in the Battle of Donbas, Kyiv will face a difficult choice: (1) to dig in and continue fighting, even though much of its most effective forces will have been captured or killed, and risk steadily losing more territory or (2) negotiating with Russia to trade territory lost since 2014 for peace to stanch further losses of Ukrainian lives and land.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, NATO, Armed Forces, Conflict, Military, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Eurasia, and Ukraine
391. Questions Concerning Finnish Membership in NATO
- Author:
- Mike Sweeney
- Publication Date:
- 06-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Defense Priorities
- Abstract:
- Admitting Finland into NATO constitutes a permanent defense commitment by the alliance. In the case of the United States, it also entails a further extension of its nuclear umbrella. Such moves warrant a fulsome public debate, not a rush to action. Consideration of the defensibility of Finland must take into account a revitalized, long-term Russian threat, not just the force currently mired in a grinding war in Ukraine. More thorough discussion is needed about Finland’s capacity to defend itself and the level of outside support it would require from NATO and, specifically, the U.S. military. Regardless of whether it admits Finland, NATO should support it in any future crises with Russia. But the nature of that support changes depending on whether Finland is an alliance member or not, with attendant implications for the level of risk NATO incurs. U.S. forces cannot be everywhere at once. New, permanent security commitments in northern Europe need to be examined relative to other U.S. global priorities.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, NATO, Alliance, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Ukraine, Finland, and Eastern Europe
392. At the End of Its Tether: U.S. Grand Strategy of Advancing Democracy
- Author:
- David C. Hendrickson
- Publication Date:
- 06-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Defense Priorities
- Abstract:
- Over the past several decades, the United States has made the advance of democracy its great purpose in foreign policy. The Biden administration’s rhetoric about a global struggle between autocracy and democracy is the old habit in new form. U.S. leaders market this goal as consonant with the U.S. liberal tradition, but it in fact offends the nation’s founding ethos, especially in relegating state sovereignty and national independence to secondary status. In the older teaching, accepted even by liberal internationalists like President Woodrow Wilson and President Franklin Roosevelt, free institutions were to expand by example, not by force. After the Cold War, U.S. efforts to push states into becoming democracies by instruction, war, and sanctions have been an abject failure, in large part because they offended against the principle of national independence. Defining U.S. efforts today as the defense of democracy obscures vital problems in the U.S. alliance system, including its expansionist tendencies, its unfair sharing of burdens, and the risks it poses of a major war that would be detrimental to U.S. security. The U.S. should reject the revolutionary policy of regime change and return to the respect for national independence once embedded in the U.S. diplomatic tradition. Overturning autocratic governments is an aim that is antithetical to peace, the most favorable environment for the growth of liberal democracy.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Cold War, Democracy, and Grand Strategy
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
393. Implications of a Melting Arctic
- Author:
- Sascha Glaeser
- Publication Date:
- 07-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Defense Priorities
- Abstract:
- Melting ice is making the Arctic more accessible, which in turn may affect three key issues in the region—militarization, maritime trade, and natural resource development. U.S. security interests in the Arctic remain deterring an attack on the United States and NATO allies and ensuring the lawful use of Arctic waters. The United States can secure both at minimum cost and risk. Greater accessibility does not increase threats emanating from the Arctic, so the United States does not need to do more militarily to ensure its security. Militarization absent threats could lead to a destabilizing security dilemma. Trans-Arctic maritime trade routes and natural resource development present potential economic opportunities; however, both still face significant challenges that limit their near-term viability. The United States should be vigilant to Russian and Chinese activity in the Arctic and avoid overreacting or reflexively mirroring their behavior. A U.S. Arctic strategy built on the reality that the United States enjoys a strong conventional and nuclear deterrent, a robust network of Arctic allies, and favorable geography, is the best avenue to protect U.S. interests and keep the Arctic at peace.
- Topic:
- Security, Climate Change, Natural Resources, Trade, and Militarization
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, Arctic, and United States of America
394. War Is a Choice, Not a Trap: The Right Lessons from Thucydides
- Author:
- Michael C. Desch
- Publication Date:
- 07-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Defense Priorities
- Abstract:
- A careful reading of the Greek Thucydides’ The History of the Peloponnesian War suggests that a U.S.-China war is hardly inevitable. Such a war is a choice, not a trap, and selecting the appropriate U.S. grand strategy is the way to avoid it. China faces important geographical and technological obstacles to expanding its hegemonic position in the region. Thucydides’ fundamental lessons for the contemporary United States in its rivalry with China is that democratic Athens erred when it sought primacy by expanding its empire during the Peloponnesian War; today we do not need to preserve a position of primacy in East Asia but can instead rest content with maintaining a balance of power. Despite China’s rise, the United States and its regional allies are in a strong position to maintain a regional balance of power that keeps a peace and serve U.S. interests in Asia.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Defense Policy, War, History, Alliance, and Geography
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, North America, and United States of America
395. Spheres of Influence in a Multipolar World
- Author:
- Andrew Latham
- Publication Date:
- 09-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Defense Priorities
- Abstract:
- Throughout the modern era, great powers have routinely staked out geographic zones within which they have limited the autonomy of weaker states—often as buffer zones between themselves and potential adversaries or rival empires. Since the nineteenth century, these geopolitical spaces have typically been referred to as spheres of influence. The specific configuration of such spheres depends largely on the distribution of power in the international system. During moments of multi-polarity, multiple great powers will attempt to assert spheres of influence; during the Cold War era of bipolarity, the international order was defined by two superpower-dominated spheres; during the post-Cold War moment of unipolarity, the U.S. alone was able to assert a sphere of influence. Given this, it was inevitable that the return of multipolarity from the 2010s on would result in the crystallization of a new, multipolar, configuration of spheres of influence—one involving multiple great powers each asserting their own sphere. The relevant question now, therefore, is not if the transition to a world of multiple spheres of influence will take place (given the structural changes at the level of international order, it most certainly will), but how Washington should manage this development in ways that are both realistic and conducive to U.S. interests. The most realistic answer to this how question is to adopt a differentiated strategy that recognizes that, while the U.S. will not be able to prevent spheres of influence as a feature of international order tout court, it may be able to thwart specific spheres in certain specific circumstances.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Multipolarity, and International Order
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus and United States of America
396. Semiconductors Are Not a Reason to Defend Taiwan
- Author:
- Christopher McCallion
- Publication Date:
- 10-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Defense Priorities
- Abstract:
- Taiwan’s dominance in advanced semiconductor manufacturing and rising U.S.-China tensions have produced alarm that a Chinese invasion or blockade of Taiwan could cause a major disruption of the global semiconductor supply chain. This has led some to claim that the U.S. should defend Taiwan in order to maintain its supply of advanced chips. Fears that China could seize Taiwan’s chip-manufacturing capacity and leapfrog the U.S. technologically are overblown. Interdependence cuts both ways; if China invaded Taiwan, it would be cut off from the vital inputs controlled by the U.S. or its allies, and therefore unable to resume chip production under new management. Others fear Taiwanese chips could be disrupted during a Chinese blockade or a protracted conflict and tend to recommend bolstering U.S. capabilities to deter China. However, there are strong reasons to doubt the U.S. can ultimately deter Beijing if it feels that force is its only option for national reunification. Further efforts by the U.S. to deter China may only present Beijing with a closing window, encouraging it to use force before its prospects worsen, and precipitating the very conflict the U.S. seeks to prevent; a war between the U.S. and China would be exponentially costlier than any potential semiconductor supply shock resulting from a cross-strait invasion. Instead, the U.S. should seek to dial down the temperature with Beijing in order to maintain the political and territorial status quo and buy the time needed to diversify its own semiconductor supplies by onshoring or “allyshoring” chip manufacturing. The U.S. should therefore avoid provoking Beijing unnecessarily, and reaffirm the substance of the One China Policy while seeking to develop a longer-term settlement with Beijing over the future of the region.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Manufacturing, and Semiconductors
- Political Geography:
- China, Taiwan, Asia, and United States of America
397. Who Is an Ally, and Why Does It Matter?
- Author:
- Natalie Armbruster and Benjamin H. Friedman
- Publication Date:
- 10-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Defense Priorities
- Abstract:
- In addition to the 51 allies the United States is obligated by treaty to defend, it has a number of quasi-allies: states the United States is not committed to defend but to which it provides a substantial degree of military and political support. By creating uncertainty about U.S. commitments both at home and abroad, quasi-allies’ ambiguous status creates dangers for both the United States and the quasi-allies. For the United States, the danger is entanglement; having quasi-allies can pull the United States into trouble outside its core interests, creating needless cost, risk, and even war. Quasi-allies may suffer a kind of moral hazard; they may falsely believe they have U.S. military protection and fail to secure themselves sufficiently or become emboldened and dangerously provoke adversaries. U.S. leaders should be more wary of these dangers and avoid loose talk and policy acts that imply a commitment to non-allies’ defense.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Alliance, and Military
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
398. Lessons for Taiwan from Ukraine
- Author:
- Sascha Glaeser
- Publication Date:
- 10-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Defense Priorities
- Abstract:
- The Russo-Ukraine war is analogous in several ways to a hypothetical war between China and Taiwan. Like Ukraine, Taiwan is a relatively weak state, threatened by a neighboring great power with a sizable nuclear arsenal who makes historical claims to its territory, and has some backing from the United States. Ukraine’s experience provides several lessons for Taiwan. War remains an instrument of statecraft that great powers use in pursuit of their perceived national interests; smaller, weaker states should plan accordingly. In Taiwan’s case, that means continuation of the status quo which has helped provide peace for decades. Taiwan should assume the United States will not engage in direct conflict with China on its behalf. This assumption should encourage Taiwan to focus its military strategy on securing an advantage by acquiring more anti-access, area-denial capability and reforming its reserve force to help it deter or resist an invasion. While Ukraine shows Taiwan could expect an outpouring of global humanitarian and military aid if attacked, its island geography and the likely course of the war means it might not manage to receive or access those supplies, and should therefore maintain strategic stockpiles of weapons, ammunition, food, fuel, and other supplies. The United States and others will likely impose economic sanctions on China. However, sanctions are unlikely to alter China’s behavior in any meaningful way if it has already committed to war.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Sanctions, Conflict, Military Aid, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Ukraine, Eastern Europe, Taiwan, and Asia
399. Violent Fraternity: An Interview with Dr. Shruti Kapila
- Author:
- Shruti Kapila and Mahia Bashir
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The Toynbee Prize Foundation
- Abstract:
- Historical considerations of modern South Asia have been marked by a predisposition towards political, material and socio-cultural analyses. Seldom has the remit of ideas as autonomous objects taken centre stage in the historiography of modern South Asia. Shruti Kapila’s new book Violent Fraternityveers off this established trajectory and breaks new ground by looking at ideas as the wellspring of political innovation and fundamental to the republication foundations of the nations of India and Pakistan during what she terms the ‘Indian age’. A work of remarkable scope that defies easy summarisation, the premise of Violent Fraternity is that violence became fraternal in 20th-century India: it was the intimate kin rather than the colonial other that became the object of unprecedented violence. “Violence, fraternity and sovereignty,” Kapila writes, “made up an intimate, deadly and highly consequential triangle of concepts that produced what has been termed here the Indian Age” (p.4) India’s founding fathers, who as opposed to the conventional figure of the detached scholar-philosopher were also actively straddling echelons of the political world, repeatedly engaged with the question of how to forge life with others in an intimate context rife with hatred and violence. In seeking these answers, they authored a new canon of political thought that defied “fidelity to any given ideology, whether it be liberalism, Marxism or communism”. As Kapila demonstrates, global political thought of the Indian age departed from its western counterpart by reconceptualising the place and potential of violence. In the western canon, the state has been the natural habitus of violence. However, Indian political thinkers like Tilak and Gandhi dissociated violence from the orbit of state, and in a radical rewriting of established political vocabularies, posited violence as an individual capacity, thereby reconceptualising the notion of sovereignty and summoning a subject-centred political horizon. Dr. Shruti Kapila is an Associate Professor of Indian History and Global Political Thought at the University of Cambridge and presently the Co-Director of the Global Humanities Initiative. Her research centres on modern and contemporary India and on global political thought in the twentieth century. In her recent book Violent Fraternity and in her earlier work on intellectual history of modern India, Dr. Kapila has pushed the boundaries of the field beyond its conventional focus on the West. In our interview, we spoke about modern India’s founding fathers and their intellectual contributions, writing global intellectual histories of the non-west, the future of the field of global intellectual history and Dr. Kapila’s engagements beyond her illustrious academic career.
- Topic:
- Politics, History, Intellectual History, and Violence
- Political Geography:
- South Asia and India
400. How China’s Environments Changed its Modern History: An interview with Micah Muscolino
- Author:
- Micah Muscolino and Rustam Khan
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The Toynbee Prize Foundation
- Abstract:
- It is hard to imagine the environmental calamities of our age without invoking China today. The “world’s factory” – as it is colloquially and sometimes derogatively called – has come to forefront of many discussions about the need to avert the dangers of planetary degradation. Images such as the thick carpets of smog covering Beijing or gripping documentaries, such as Death by Design (AMBRICA, 2016) and Plastic China (Jiu-Liang Wang, 2016), have revealed how China’s social and natural landscapes have experienced the ‘Anthropocene’s’ coming of age. In such narratives, the environment in China is usually seen as the victim of unfettered industrial production and global consumption starting with the country’s ‘reform and opening up’ period in the late 1970s. But to what extent does this periodization and the logics of the Anthropocene that rest upon it make sense against the longer historical record? A wave of scholarship has scrutinized the abstract idea of the environment in China’s restless history over the past two centuries. Bracketing the origins of the today’s environmental crises exclusively within the globalization debate is to miss something important. Namely, ecological thinking featured prominently in the country’s experiences with modernization, colonialism, and nation-building starting in the long 19th century. Micah Muscolino’s work is a great example that rethinks the conventional framework of modern Chinese history. Muscolino shows how the making of Qing, National, and PRC rule were often built on its relationships to natural resources. He has also come to see many similarities between today’s environmentalist transformations and China’s past. China stands, as he asserts, at the heart of the world’s present-day predicaments. The Toynbee Prize Foundation had the pleasure of interviewing Professor Micah Muscolino. He is the author of two acclaimed monographs, Fishing Wars and Environmental Change in Late Imperial and Modern China (2009) and The Ecology of War in China: Henan Province, the Yellow River, and Beyond, 1938-1950 (2015). With his Ph.D. in Chinese history from Harvard in hand, Muscolino taught at St. Mary’s College of California, Georgetown University, and the University of Oxford, before taking up the Pickowicz Endowed Chair in Modern Chinese History at UC San Diego in 2018. He took the time to tell us more about the China’s past and present entanglements with the environment.
- Topic:
- Environment, Globalization, History, Displacement, Ecology, and Food Crisis
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia