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452. Chavismo in the World
- Author:
- Angelo Rivero Santos and Javier Morales Hernández
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- The Bolivarian Revolution shook up the geopolitical map. Rebuilding Venezuela’s fractured relations in the hemisphere remains its chief foreign policy challenge.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, Geopolitics, and Hugo Chavez
- Political Geography:
- South America and Venezuela
453. An Independent Union Wins Landslide Victory Among MexicanGM Workers
- Author:
- Dan DiMaggio and Luis Feliz Leon
- Publication Date:
- 02-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- The vote by auto workers in Guanajuato to replace the previous employee-friendly union with the National Auto Workers Union in early February is a breakthrough for labor rights.
- Topic:
- Labor Issues, Industry, Labor Rights, Workforce, and Labor Unions
- Political Geography:
- North America and Mexico
454. Venezuela's Missing Center
- Author:
- Francisco Rodríguez
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- With the country caught in a pitched winner-take-all contest, it is unsurprising that voters feel apathetic. Solutions must come from the space between the extremes.
- Topic:
- Elections, Domestic Politics, Voting, and Centrism
- Political Geography:
- South America and Venezuela
455. The Feminist Revolution That Wasn't
- Author:
- Yoletty Bracho and Marisela Betancourt
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- Chavismo co-opted women’s rights rhetoric but failed to deliver on core feminist demands. For grassroots movements, abortion access remains a key struggle.
- Topic:
- Politics, Women, Feminism, Abortion, and Grassroots Organizing
- Political Geography:
- South America and Venezuela
456. Displaced and Insecure: Understanding the Exodus and Its Effects
- Author:
- María Isabel Puerta Riera
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- From brain drain to mental health issues, the mass migration of millions of Venezuelans has far-reaching impacts at home and abroad.
- Topic:
- Migration, Brain Drain, Displacement, and Mental Health
- Political Geography:
- South America and Venezuela
457. Chavismo, Student Movements, and the Future of the Left
- Author:
- Fabrice Andreani and Damian Alifa
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- Partisan polarization wiped out autonomous stances within Venezuela’s universities for more than 15years. Rebuilding a pluralist Left from the grassroots is key to reclaiming combative struggles.
- Topic:
- Social Movement, Leftist Politics, Students, Polarization, and Grassroots Organizing
- Political Geography:
- South America and Venezuela
458. Navigating Alternate Realities
- Author:
- Alexander Main
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- When political tensions run high and misinformation proliferates, there’s no better way to get a clear view than with your own eyes.
- Topic:
- Domestic Politics, Protests, Misinformation, and Political Crisis
- Political Geography:
- South America and Venezuela
459. Making the Dominican Republic Great Again?
- Author:
- Lorgia García-Peña
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- The Dominican government has always aligned itself with white supremacism, following the United States’ lead on immigration policies towards Haitians.
- Topic:
- Immigration, Border Control, and White Supremacy
- Political Geography:
- Caribbean, Haiti, Dominican Republic, and United States of America
460. The Devastating Costs of Puerto Rico’s Solar “Farms”
- Author:
- Ruth Santiago, Hilda Lloréns, and Catalina de Onís
- Publication Date:
- 02-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- The road to achieving sustainable energy in Puerto Rico should not be paved by bulldozing agricultural lands and coastal plains.
- Topic:
- Agriculture, Climate Change, Environment, Sustainability, Solar Power, and Energy
- Political Geography:
- Caribbean and Puerto Rico
461. Remembering María Elena Moyano: 30 Years Later
- Author:
- Néstor David Pastor
- Publication Date:
- 02-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- Decades after her shocking murder, the Afro-Peruvian activist and organizer’s legacy for affirming life and collective dignity is more relevant than ever.
- Topic:
- Assassination, Activism, and Grassroots Organizing
- Political Geography:
- South America and Peru
462. Environmental Justice in the Age of Unnatural Disaster
- Author:
- Chris N. Lesser
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- The recent mudslides in Petrópolis are just the latest examples of the issues of unequal access to land and precarious housing in Brazil.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Environment, Natural Disasters, Inequality, Justice, Land, and Housing
- Political Geography:
- Brazil and South America
463. Colombia Joins the Green Wave
- Author:
- David Díaz Arias and Joshua Collins
- Publication Date:
- 02-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- In a historic win for reproductive rights, Colombia’s highest court strikes down law that made abortion a crime.
- Topic:
- Human Rights, Social Movement, Courts, and Abortion
- Political Geography:
- Colombia and South America
464. Why Haiti Advocacy Needs New Strategies
- Author:
- Mark Schuller
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- As the Biden administration continues to ignore Haitian civil society proposals for a pathway out of crisis, confronting white supremacy across borders is essential.
- Topic:
- Civil Society, Borders, Crisis Management, and White Supremacy
- Political Geography:
- Caribbean, Haiti, and United States of America
465. Cooking Revolutions in the Community Pot
- Author:
- Virginia Tognola
- Publication Date:
- 02-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- In Argentina, culinary cooperatives provide food and support for vulnerable communities.
- Topic:
- Food, Community, Community Engagement, and Cooperatives
- Political Geography:
- Argentina and South America
466. For Venezuelans in Colombia, the Long Path to Legal Residency
- Author:
- Liza Schmidt
- Publication Date:
- 02-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- Although providing the 10-year residence permits promised last year has been a complicated process, many maintain hope for a more stable future.
- Topic:
- Migration, Immigration, Borders, Domestic Policy, and Social Stability
- Political Geography:
- Colombia, South America, and Venezuela
467. U.S. Immigration Detention System: “A Living Hell”
- Author:
- Joseph Nevins
- Publication Date:
- 02-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- A historical and contemporary look at migrant incarceration and the detainees pushing for change inside and beyond the system.
- Topic:
- Human Rights, Immigration, Border Control, and Detention
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
468. Guatemala on Trial: Maya Land Rights Case Reaches International Court
- Author:
- María Inés Taracena
- Publication Date:
- 02-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- After a decades-long fight against transnational mining interests and state repression, the community’s case could set a new precedent for Indigenous land and resource rights.
- Topic:
- Natural Resources, Courts, Mining, Land Rights, and Indigenous
- Political Geography:
- Central America and Guatemala
469. WILL NATO MILITARY EXERCISES DETER RUSSIAN EXPANSION?
- Author:
- Brian Blankenship
- Publication Date:
- 02-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Political Violence @ A Glance
- Abstract:
- As concerns that Russia might try to seize additional territory from Ukraine have mounted in recent weeks, policymakers in the United States and NATO have considered how best to shore up the alliance and discourage a Russian offensive. These efforts are hardly new. Since Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014, the NATO alliance has attempted to dissuade Russia from further attempts to encroach on the territory of neighboring countries. These attempts have included the creation of a “Very High Readiness Joint Task Force” capable of deploying to crisis areas within 72 hours, as well as the “Enhanced Forward Presence” consisting of four multinational battalions stationed in Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland on a rotational basis. Additionally, NATO members have conducted a variety of military exercises with members around the alliance’s eastern flank, as well as some with Ukraine itself.
- Topic:
- NATO, Deterrence, Vladimir Putin, Joe Biden, and Military
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Ukraine, United States of America, and Baltic States
470. HOW DO GOVERNMENTS DECIDE WHICH GROUPS ARE “TERRORIST ORGANIZATIONS”?
- Author:
- Brian J. Phillips and Mirna El Masri
- Publication Date:
- 02-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Political Violence @ A Glance
- Abstract:
- US Senator Ted Cruz recently called for Yemen’s Houthis to be added to the Foreign Terrorist Organization list—again. The Iran-backed Houthis, also known as Ansar Allah, were designated as terrorists by the Trump administration on January 19, 2021, criminalizing support of the group, but the designation was removed by the Biden administration the following month. Around the world, national terrorist group lists vary considerably, and change over time. Last fall, the UK government announced it would add Hamas to its terrorist list. Other countries, such as the United States, have long designated Hamas a terrorist group, while others, like Russia, have not. Why do some organizations end up on countries’ terrorist group lists? Why are some terrorist lists different than others?
- Topic:
- Government, Terrorism, Non State Actors, Conflict, and Islamism
- Political Geography:
- United States of America
471. WILL COOPERATION BETWEEN THE WORLD BANK AND CHINA LAST?
- Author:
- Richard Clark
- Publication Date:
- 02-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Political Violence @ A Glance
- Abstract:
- International development organizations, which provide concessional loans and grants to help finance developing countries, often overlap with one another, performing similar tasks in similar countries. For instance, dozens of such organizations have offered COVID-19 relief to developing country member states. In one case, the World Bank approved a $95 million package for Uzbekistan to strengthen its medical systems in April 2020. The Asian Development Bank pledged another $1.1 billion to Uzbekistan over the last two years, and the World Health Organization doled out another $10 million in personal protective and laboratory equipment. Overall, 28 international organizations provide development assistance today.
- Topic:
- Development, International Organization, World Bank, and Finance
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
472. A WIDENING RIFT BETWEEN EUROPE AND THE SAHEL
- Author:
- Silvia D'Amato
- Publication Date:
- 02-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Political Violence @ A Glance
- Abstract:
- Two weeks ago, the Malian military junta, in power after a coup in May 2021, proposed to hold elections in December 2025 instead of this month as promised. The move was widely condemned. West Africa’s main regional bloc, the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), immediately imposed new sanctions while the French Minister of Defense Florence Parly floated the possibility of reviewing the French and European military engagement in the country. The French Minister of Foreign Affairs Jean-Yves Le Drian openly called the junta “illegitimate”. In response, on January 31 Malian authorities gave 72 hours to the French Ambassador in Bamako to leave the country, an unprecedented diplomatic decision. The European Union (EU) also took a firm stance by imposing targeted sanctions against 5 members of the junta, including Prime Minister Choguel Maïga. The current querelle is arguably only the latest in an ongoing dynamic of political fragmentation in the cooperation between European and regional actors in the Sahel.
- Topic:
- International Cooperation, Counterinsurgency, Armed Forces, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Europe, North Africa, and Sahel
473. ARE RUSSIA’S THREATS CREDIBLE?
- Author:
- Stephen Shulman and Stephen Bloom
- Publication Date:
- 02-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Political Violence @ A Glance
- Abstract:
- The current crisis in Europe is a head-to-head battle of policies of coercive diplomacy: compellence by Russia and deterrence by the West. Russia’s demands focus on permanently reversing the expansion of Western military power into Ukraine, backed by the threat of military attack on Ukraine in the absence of compliance. Western policy seeks to deter such an attack by threatening painful economic sanctions and arming Ukraine to make such an attack more costly to Russia. How credible is the Russian threat?
- Topic:
- NATO, Diplomacy, Sanctions, Crisis Management, and Military
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe
474. HOW GERMANY’S COALITION CHANGE CONTRIBUTED TO PUTIN’S STRATEGIC MISCALCULATION IN UKRAINE
- Author:
- Debra Leiter and Rebecca Best
- Publication Date:
- 02-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Political Violence @ A Glance
- Abstract:
- Vladimir Putin almost certainly failed to anticipate that Germany would be willing to sacrifice the benefits of cheaper Russian gas to punish Russian aggression in Ukraine. But Tuesday, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz indefinitely paused certification of the completed Nord Stream 2 pipeline to “reassess” the situation. While the move didn’t stop Putin from invading Ukraine—by that point Putin already had too much skin in the game to risk the loss of face from backing down—it has substantially raised the costs for Russia. Why did Germany do this, and why didn’t Putin see it coming?
- Topic:
- NATO, Oil, War, Gas, and Strategic Interests
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and Germany
475. CONTAINMENT 2.0: SANCTIONS FOR THE LONG HAUL
- Author:
- David A. Lake
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Political Violence @ A Glance
- Abstract:
- The West is not imposing coercive sanctions on Russia to stop its current aggression. No one seriously expects that the sanctions will cause President Putin to withdraw from Ukraine. NATO made clear before the war that its members will not defend Ukraine with military force. The European members have also, as expected, carved out exceptions to the sanctions regime for oil and gas so as not to impose too much pain on their own economies. Putin anticipated the general scope of the sanctions likely to be imposed on Russia and decided it was worth invading Ukraine anyways. While he may have been surprised by the extent of the sanctions and unity of NATO so far, this is not enough to alter his calculus. Indeed, he is doubling down on the original plan. He also knows that he has other weapons and forms of coercion against the West up his sleeve. Rather, we are seeing the birth of a possible Containment 2.0, a forced decoupling of Russia from the Western international economy. This is a long-term, not a short-term, strategy. The point is to undermine the Russian economy, stifle its technological progress, deny Russians a standard of living comparable to that of the West, and break support for the regime over time. In doing so, the West undermines Russia’s ability to compete militarily, aiming to forestall further Ukraines, and weakens Putin’s hand at home and abroad.
- Topic:
- NATO, International Trade and Finance, Sanctions, Economy, and Containment
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Ukraine, Global Focus, and United States of America
476. WILL NATO FIGHT RUSSIA OVER UKRAINE? THE STABILITY-INSTABILITY PARADOX SAYS NO
- Author:
- Andrew Kydd
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Political Violence @ A Glance
- Abstract:
- Many observers of the current war between Russia and Ukraine have expressed concern that NATO support for Ukraine could escalate the conflict to a direct major conventional war between NATO and Russia, and that from there it could easily escalate to a nuclear war. A group of foreign policy experts have proposed that NATO impose a “no-fly zone” over Ukraine, while other analysts have decried the escalatory potential of such a move. In a recent poll of international relations scholars, 40 percent thought a no-fly zone would lead to large-scale conventional war between NATO and Russia and 13 percent thought it could lead to nuclear war.
- Topic:
- NATO, Nuclear Weapons, War, Escalation, and Instability
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and United States of America
477. CAN ISRAEL REMAIN BOTH NEUTRAL AND PART OF THE WEST?
- Author:
- Michael Barnett
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Political Violence @ A Glance
- Abstract:
- Israel is getting some unwanted attention because of its reluctance to outrightly condemn the Russian invasion of Ukraine. No one believes that the failure to condemn translates into support for the attack. But Israel’s reticence has placed it in an awkward situation—one that might, in fact, translate into a loss of support from Western countries when Israel needs it most.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Geopolitics, Conflict, Neutrality, and Strategic Interests
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Ukraine, Middle East, Israel, and Eastern Europe
478. WHY A SETTLEMENT IN UKRAINE REMAINS OUT OF REACH
- Author:
- Valerie Sticher
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Political Violence @ A Glance
- Abstract:
- The Russian invasion and unfolding humanitarian catastrophe in Ukraine show the limits of diplomacy. Despite warning of an impending invasion, efforts to stop the war failed. And despite the high costs on all sides, efforts to stop this horrific war remain elusive. Why is this the case?
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, War, and Humanitarian Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe
479. HOW HISTORICAL ANALOGIES WOKE UP THE WEST
- Author:
- Eric Mosinger
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Political Violence @ A Glance
- Abstract:
- Policymakers, activists, and ordinary people often make analogies between past and present, for example, by labeling 9/11 “the Pearl Harbor of the 21st century.” In doing so, people hope to better understand surprising events and develop a plan of action for themselves and others. Vladimir Putin employed historical analogies to justify his invasion of Ukraine, while Western leaders drew on their own understanding of World War II history to mobilize a surprisingly muscular response to Russian aggression.
- Topic:
- War, History, and Vladimir Putin
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe
480. WHY OFFSHORE FINANCE LIMITS U.S. SANCTIONS AGAINST RUSSIA
- Author:
- Menevis Cilizoglu and Chelsea Estancona
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Political Violence @ A Glance
- Abstract:
- More than 1,000 individuals and entities have now been targeted with sanctions since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, including more than 50 oligarchs close to Putin and their families. These measures include the freezing of assets in international banks, seizure of yachts, private jets, and luxury real estate, and travel bans. Western policymakers hope that targeting a wide network of Russian political and economic elites, including oil executives, steel tycoons, media moguls and high-level intelligence officers will isolate Putin and pressure him to reverse course. The million-dollar question is, can these targeted measures actually hurt Russian oligarchs, let alone pressure Putin?
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, War, Sanctions, Offshore Finance, and Shell Companies
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Ukraine, and United States of America
481. Jihad Takes Root in Northern Benin
- Author:
- Leif Brottem
- Publication Date:
- 09-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
- Abstract:
- The 14 September 2022 killing of two customs agents days after the kidnapping of three individuals with government ties signals an alarming uptick in jihadist violence in northern Benin (Les 4 Vérités, 14 September 2022). ACLED records 28 organized political violence events in northern Benin attributed to Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) or the Islamic State between 1 November 2021 and 14 September 2022 (see map below). It is increasingly clear that jihadist cells have become deeply established in the country’s northern regions. The Beninese government is currently ramping up its threat response, which looks likely to include a security agreement with Rwanda (Radio France Internationale, 10 September 2022). It is more urgent than ever that the country’s counterinsurgency avoids the tragic mistakes of governments in the Sahel by blunting the deepening roots of the insurgency in rural areas.
- Topic:
- Counterinsurgency, Non State Actors, Violent Extremism, and Jihad
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Benin
482. Jihad Takes Root in Northern Benin
- Author:
- Leif Brottem
- Publication Date:
- 09-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
- Abstract:
- The 14 September 2022 killing of two customs agents days after the kidnapping of three individuals with government ties signals an alarming uptick in jihadist violence in northern Benin (Les 4 Vérités, 14 September 2022). ACLED records 28 organized political violence events in northern Benin attributed to Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) or the Islamic State between 1 November 2021 and 14 September 2022 (see map below). It is increasingly clear that jihadist cells have become deeply established in the country’s northern regions. The Beninese government is currently ramping up its threat response, which looks likely to include a security agreement with Rwanda (Radio France Internationale, 10 September 2022). It is more urgent than ever that the country’s counterinsurgency avoids the tragic mistakes of governments in the Sahel by blunting the deepening roots of the insurgency in rural areas.
- Topic:
- Security, Political Violence, Insurgency, Violent Extremism, and Jihad
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Benin
483. Papuan Independence and Political Disorder in Indonesia
- Author:
- Sindy Ajara, Laura Sorica, and Elliott Bynum
- Publication Date:
- 10-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
- Abstract:
- In Indonesia, political disorder in Papua and West Papua1 provinces increased in 2021 amid opposition to the revision of the Special Autonomy Law. First promulgated in 2001, the Special Autonomy Law was initially intended to give greater power to the local governments in the Papuan region. However, new revisions to the law introduced in 2021 expand the central government’s authority and have allowed for the unwelcome creation of new provinces in the region (Tempo, 16 July 2021). Tensions between the political demands of many Papuan groups and the centralized, development-oriented agenda of the Indonesian state continue to fuel unrest. This report examines disorder trends related to the issue of Papuan independence since 2018,2 focusing in particular on the rise in clashes between state forces and the West Papua National Liberation Army (TPNPB), increasing levels of violence targeting civilians by the TPNPB, and disproportionate state intervention in peaceful protests held by Papuans and Papuan groups.3
- Topic:
- Security, Political Violence, Protests, Civilians, and Independence
- Political Geography:
- Indonesia, Southeast Asia, and Papua
484. Violence in Yemen During the UN-Mediated Truce: April-October 2022
- Author:
- Raed Khelifi, Emile Roy, and Luca Nevola
- Publication Date:
- 10-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
- Abstract:
- On 2 October 2022, the UN-mediated truce in Yemen came to an end as the warring sides rejected a proposal presented by UN Special Envoy for Yemen Hans Grundberg to extend and expand the agreement (Office of the Special Envoy of the Secretary-General for Yemen, 2 October 2022). The truce had first come into effect on 2 April 2022 and was renewed twice for two-month periods, in June and August. Among other things, it provided for a halt to offensive military operations by both the Houthi and Internationally Recognized Government (IRG)1 sides. Overall, the six months of truce brought several tangible benefits to the Yemeni population, including improved access to humanitarian aid (ReliefWeb, 31 May 2022), greater economic opportunities (ACAPS, 17 May 2022), and a significant reduction in violence and casualties countrywide. ACLED’s report on the first two months of truce found that April and May 2022 saw the lowest levels of reported fatalities from political violence in Yemen since January 2015. This trend continued for the whole truce period: reported fatalities from political violence between April and September 2022 were consistently lower than any other month since January 2015.
- Topic:
- United Nations, Violence, Houthis, Armed Conflict, and Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP)
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Yemen
485. Political Violence During Brazil’s 2022 General Elections
- Author:
- Sandra Pellegrini and Maria Puolakkainen
- Publication Date:
- 10-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
- Abstract:
- Following the first round of voting in Brazil’s general elections on 2 October, left-wing two-time former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva – leader of the Workers’ Party (PT) and the ‘Brazil of Hope’ coalition – leads the race with 48.4% of the vote. He was followed closely by far-right incumbent President Jair Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party (PL) and the ‘For the Good of Brazil’ coalition, who outperformed the polls by receiving 43.2% of the votes. Lula’s inability to exceed 50% has forced a runoff election between Lula and Bolsonaro scheduled for 30 October. The narrow margin between the two candidates came as a surprise, as many predicted a first-round victory for Lula (BBC, 3 October 2022). The close outcome underscores the deepening polarization of Brazil’s electorate, with both contenders garnering significant popular support with opposed electoral programs. Amid this polarization, antagonism between Bolsonaro’s administration and the opposition has fueled increased electoral violence, which continues to pose a threat ahead of the presidential runoff election. UN experts warned that threats, intimidation, and political violence “generate terror among the population and deter potential candidates from running for office,” urging Brazilian authorities to ensure the safety of candidates and most-at-risk communities (OHCHR, 22 September 2022).
- Topic:
- Political Violence, Elections, Domestic Politics, Jair Bolsonaro, and Lula da Silva
- Political Geography:
- Brazil and South America
486. The 2022 Israeli Legislative Election and Political Violence in the West Bank
- Author:
- Ameneh Mehvar and Matan Ayash
- Publication Date:
- 10-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
- Abstract:
- On 1 November, Israelis will go to the polls for the fifth time in three-and-a-half years. This latest round of elections follows the dissolution of a historically broad coalition — headed by Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid — that consisted of right-wing, centrist, left-leaning parties, in addition to the first Arab party to serve in a ruling coalition in Israel’s history. The so-called change coalition was Israel’s first government without Benjamin Netanyahu as prime minister since 2009. The formation of an ideologically diverse coalition was borne out of the feeling of necessity to prevent Netanyahu from continuing his tenure. Netanyahu, who is currently on trial for alleged bribery, fraud, and breach of trust, has become the primary fault line in an Israeli political environment that has been deadlocked since 2019. While the majority of seats in the Knesset are held by right-wing parties, reflecting an increasing number of Jewish Israelis who self-identify as right-wing (IDI, 30 August 2022), the rift among the political right over Netanyahu has prevented the formation of a right-wing government, creating two competing blocs that have shaped Israeli politics since 2019.
- Topic:
- Political Violence, Elections, and Domestic Politics
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and West Bank
487. From the Capitol Riot to the Midterms: Shifts in American Far-Right Mobilization Between 2021 and 2022
- Author:
- Roudabeh Kishi
- Publication Date:
- 12-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
- Abstract:
- After the attack on the Capitol in January 2021 and through the November 2022 midterm elections, far-right mobilization has only continued to evolve in the United States. Currently, far-right activity in 2022 is on track to exceed the level of activity reported in 2021, driven by a significant uptick in white nationalist, white supremacist, and anti-LGBT+ organizing around the country. This report analyzes shifts in the drivers of far-right mobilization over the course of the year, with a focus on how these drivers shaped the activities of armed militias and violent groups like the Proud Boys in states with contentious elections, as well as a look at trends to watch ahead of the 2024 campaign season.
- Topic:
- Domestic Politics, LGBT+, Far Right, White Supremacy, and January 6
- Political Geography:
- Canada, North America, and United States of America
488. Political Violence During Brazil’s 2022 Presidential Runoff
- Author:
- Maria Puolakkainen and Sandra Pellegrini
- Publication Date:
- 12-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
- Abstract:
- Following his victory in the presidential runoff election on 30 October, President-elect Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva described Brazil as “one country, one people, one great nation.” While this speech may indicate the incoming president’s willingness to seek unity, it comes at a time of heightened political polarization in Brazil. Inflammatory rhetoric around the elections and spikes in political violence throughout the election period have raised concerns over the potential for further outbreaks of unrest, even beyond the aftermath of the runoff. The contestation of the election results and calls for military intervention by supporters of outgoing President Jair Bolsonaro present an ongoing challenge to the “peace and unity” promoted by President-elect Lula in his victory speech (Folha de S.Paulo, 31 October 2022).
- Topic:
- Political Violence, Elections, Jair Bolsonaro, and Lula da Silva
- Political Geography:
- Brazil and South America
489. WeChat’s role in Australian democracy: A grassroots view
- Author:
- Xueyin Zha
- Publication Date:
- 08-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Lowy Institute for International Policy
- Abstract:
- The social media messaging app WeChat is often portrayed in expert and media commentary as being inherently incompatible with democracy in Australia because the platform is subject to the scrutiny and censure of China, an authoritarian one-party state. This study provides the first in-depth snapshot of how politicians and everyday Chinese-Australians use WeChat at the grassroots level during council elections. It finds that WeChat, in these circumstances, can be broadly compatible with liberal democracy and significantly enhances democratic participation in a multicultural society. Using the December 2021 New South Wales (NSW) local elections as a case study, this paper analyses qualitative data collected from private group chats, interviews with Chinese-Australian politicians, and editors from media outlets on WeChat. The study finds that, overall, the app expanded, rather than restricted, Chinese-Australian voters’ access to quality news content to better inform their choices at the ballot box. The platform was used to bridge gaps in the provision of public services and information to Chinese-Australian communities and facilitated their civic engagement. Despite its benefits, WeChat is afflicted by issues relating to censorship, transparency, online polarisation, and mis- and disinformation. Australia’s stark political differences and fraught bilateral relations with China add additional layers of complexity to managing these challenges. However, improved oversight and governance arrangements, alongside enhanced funding for reliable Chinese-language online media, would help offset the risk of foreign influence and better harness the platform’s utility for bolstering the participation of Chinese-Australian communities in Australia’s democracy.
- Topic:
- Democracy, Social Media, Political Participation, and WeChat
- Political Geography:
- China and Australia
490. Australia in the Middle East: Enduring risks, interests, and opportunities
- Author:
- Rodger Shanahan
- Publication Date:
- 08-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Lowy Institute for International Policy
- Abstract:
- As Australia refocuses its foreign and defence policies on its near abroad, it must be careful not to allow ties with the Middle East to fall into neglect. This analysis examines the impact that two decades of security engagement in the Middle East have had on Australia’s relations with the region and argues that while Canberra may have largely ended the country’s military commitments in the Middle East, the region is more important in more ways to Australia than it was before that commitment got underway. An expanded Australian diplomatic footprint, growing economic ties, and more extensive people-to-people links with the Middle East means that the region and its security risks have greater domestic relevance for Australia than they did two decades ago.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Migration, Conflict, and Strategic Interests
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Australia
491. Chinese coercion, Australian resilience
- Author:
- Richard McGregor
- Publication Date:
- 10-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Lowy Institute for International Policy
- Abstract:
- Australians have grown in confidence about the country’s ability to withstand economic coercion from China since the imposition of punitive trade measures in 2020. Beijing suspended high-level political exchanges and imposed a range of informal sanctions and trade blockages against Australia in the wake of a series of escalating disputes, culminating in Canberra’s call for an independent inquiry into the origins of Covid-19 in April that year. Two years on, it is prudent to plan on the basis that it is still early days in China’s use of trade measure against Australia. Canberra and Beijing resumed ministerial-level dialogue after the election of the Albanese Labor government in May 2022. But given the long-term structural divide between the United States and China, and Australia’s position as a strong US ally, Australian governments of all persuasions should assume that China’s trade policies against Australia will remain largely in place. Beijing may tactically retreat now and again to fill shortfalls or if it wants for political reasons to present itself as a conciliatory partner. But a solution to the fundamental bilateral political tensions driving trade disruptions is not on the horizon. The sectors in which bilateral trade with China have continued to prosper are not those in which Australian producers are dependent on China but rather where the two countries are interdependent. Australia cannot find alternative markets to match China for commodities such as iron ore, liquefied natural gas, and wool. Nor can China wean itself off a substantial reliance on Australia as a supplier. For this reason, the core elements of bilateral trade will remain reasonably resilient for some years. However, absent a huge change in the structure of the Australian economy and its export profile, the longer-term picture for exports to China looks worse. As China’s economy grows and its structure changes and becomes less resource intensive, Australia will likely get a decreasing share of a growing pie. Over time, the cost of trade bans and other punitive measures will likely mount as Chinese investment in Australia diminishes and the cost of diversifying from the region’s largest economy grows. Australia has maintained its reputation as a reliable supplier of commodities throughout the downturn in bilateral relations with China. It is imperative that it continue to do so — both to benefit the Australian economy and to maintain leverage of its own. Control over critical commodities carries considerable strategic value, as the role of gas and oil in the Ukraine war has shown.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Commodities, Trade, Resilience, and Coercion
- Political Geography:
- China and Australia
492. Sharper choices: How Australia can make better national security decisions
- Author:
- Ben Scott
- Publication Date:
- 12-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Lowy Institute for International Policy
- Abstract:
- As Australia’s national security environment has grown more complex and competitive, the country’s governments have gradually articulated their strategic response, primarily in the 2016 Defence White Paper, the 2017 Foreign Policy White Paper, and the 2020 Defence Strategic Update. In these documents, and in major speeches, Australian governments have adopted four broad strategic concepts: the embattled rules-based order, the return of great power competition, the expansion of grey zone competition, and the increased likelihood of major power war. There is no master theory that can entirely explain Australia’s situation and guide its decision-makers. A national security strategy is necessary, but its utility will be limited by the increasingly unpredictable course of geopolitics. The strategic concepts Australia has adopted illuminate its interests, objectives, and the types of issues Canberra must grapple with. But these concepts also mask many of the difficult choices Australia will face. Focusing on the paradox of “competitive independence” brings additional clarity to the country’s policy dilemmas but does not resolve them. Responding to greater uncertainty will require greater case-by-case decision-making. But this does not mean the government should simply muddle through. Rather, it should seek to improve the quality of its decision-making by following through on Australia’s history of imposing more structure on national security decision-making. Acknowledging the complexity of the challenges it faces, the government should more often seek discrete assessments of national security problems to ensure that all relevant dimensions are considered. This would help ensure that Australia’s long-term strategic goals are considered when critical decisions are made.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, National Security, and Decision-Making
- Political Geography:
- China and Australia
493. Mixed report card: China’s influence at the United Nations
- Author:
- Courtney J. Fung and Shing-hon Lam
- Publication Date:
- 12-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Lowy Institute for International Policy
- Abstract:
- China is of growing importance to the United Nations. Beijing aims to exert influence at the world body to legitimise and disseminate its foreign policy values and interests. This report contextualises China’s growing presence at the United Nations by examining publicly available data on four metrics that gauge Beijing’s success in steering the global governance agenda. Those metrics are: funding for UN departments, programs, and initiatives; staffing of executive-level personnel positions; voting in the UN General Assembly and UN Security Council; and the use of PRC-specific discourse and language in UN-generated documentation. The United Nations has become progressively more reliant on China’s general contributions, and in turn China has used a combination of levers to elevate its position within the UN system. However, this report finds that China is still selective in its overall approach to UN participation and that efforts by the PRC do not necessarily translate into successful influence at the body. The report makes three recommendations for UN stakeholders. First, a deeper understanding must be gained of what China contributes across different UN agencies and functional areas to establish a more complete picture of its multilateral input. Second, efforts should be made to shape China’s engagement in multilateral issues, in particular those that the PRC is yet to prioritise, such as refugee management. Third, it is vital to articulate an inclusive multilateral vision for a rules-based international order that specifies under which conditions China’s contributions are embraced, rather than framing PRC input solely as a source of concern.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, United Nations, Governance, and UN Security Council
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
494. Taiwan’s Local Elections: Defeat of the Ruling DPP Amidst Negative Campaigns
- Author:
- Kai-Ping Huang
- Publication Date:
- 12-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- East Asia Institute (EAI)
- Abstract:
- Taiwan held “nine-in-one” local elections on November 26, 2022, and the ruling Democratic Progressive Party(DPP) lost many seats amidst negative campaigns, while the KMT emerged as the winner of the election. However, Kai-Ping Huang, an Associate Professor of Political Science at National Taiwan University, evaluates the biggest losers are voters who were not offered quality campaigns. Professor Huang defines the campaign’s major issues as Scandals of Plagiarism, Poor Quality of Infrastructure, Discredited Pandemic Control Performance and Economic Difficulties and Anti-China Campaign Backlash. In addition, she states that it is too early to say whether the KMT will have an advantage in the upcoming presidential election. The KMT must clarify its position on national identity. The Taipei voters don`t appreciate what the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) has done to the capital, and most voters do not believe that the TPP is a credible alternative to the two mainstream parties. Therefore, TPP needs to coordinate with the KMT to defeat the ruling DPP can be an option.
- Topic:
- Education, Elections, Democracy, and Political Parties
- Political Geography:
- Taiwan and Asia
495. Sustaining Democratic Unity for Ukraine’s Victory and South Korea’s Roles in This
- Author:
- Yang Gyu Kim
- Publication Date:
- 11-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- East Asia Institute (EAI)
- Abstract:
- The war situation regarding Russia and Ukraine seems to be changing, as Kherson has recently returned to Ukraine. Yang Gyu Kim, a principal researcher at the East Asia Institute, considers the Russia-Ukraine war a “war of value,” and stresses that Ukraine’s victory is highly important, since it involves the restoration of global governance and has strategic implications in various regions around the world. Considering the post-war measures, Kim argues that the most contentious issue to be addressed is the genocide committed by Russian troops toward Ukraine civilians. While various reports confirm the allegations of genocide, he explains establishing its allegations and filing the case to the International Court of Justice remain challenging. Finally, Kim suggests three things that the Korean government can consider to help Ukraine: closely cooperating with the United States and Japan to sanction Russia, providing further humanitarian aid to Kyiv, and supporting Ukraine to win the legal fight in proving the war crimes as genocide.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Genocide, Democracy, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Ukraine, Eastern Europe, Asia, and South Korea
496. Russia’s Partial Mobilization: Issues Pertaining Russian Migrants in Mongolia
- Author:
- Ariunbayar Bazarvaani
- Publication Date:
- 11-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- East Asia Institute (EAI)
- Abstract:
- The Kremlin recently announced a partial mobilization decree amid the continuing war between Russia and Ukraine. Along with the partial mobilization decree, the Kremlin also amended the Criminal Code that stipulates severe punishment for voluntary surrender and people who deserted from military service. While the Mongolian government holds an abstemious position towards the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Mr. Ariunbayar Bazarvaani, CEO of The Academy of Political Education, states that the non-governmental organizations in Mongolia are keeping an eye on the Russian migrants who had fled from Russia to evade mobilization. He also introduces a survey addressing Russian refugees` challenges and urges the Mongolian government to consider these issues and approach the crisis with an awareness of democracy, human rights, and freedom. Specifically, he argues that the Mongolian government should actively involve Mongolian NGOs to offer a favorable environment, including employment, and thus be recognized as a country that endorses democracy and human rights.
- Topic:
- Democracy, Migrants, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Mongolia, and Asia
497. A Congruous Multilateral Security Framework? Searching for an Asian Democratic Partnerships
- Author:
- Jagannath P. Panda
- Publication Date:
- 10-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- East Asia Institute (EAI)
- Abstract:
- Along with the rise of geopolitical competition within the region, there have been upcoming threats toward Asian democracy such as the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war. Dr. Jagannath Panda, Head of the Stockholm Center for South Asian and Indo-Pacific Affairs, discusses how the Russian-Ukraine war reveals the lack of integrity and unity among Asian democratic countries, as each states displays different attitude towards the sanctions against Russia. He considers Russian-Ukraine war as an example of how an autocratic power can undermine the international liberal order and violate the inherent democratic principles. While the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) has the potential to develop into a broader multilateral security framework and a countermeasure towards autocratic countries in the region, Dr. Panda stresses that the search for an effective democratic partnership driven by Asian states such as a new Regional Cooperation and Integration (RCI) should be ongoing in order to reinforce the resilience of smaller democratic states and counterbalance the influence of autocratic states in the region.
- Topic:
- Security, Partnerships, Democracy, Multilateralism, Regional Politics, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Asia
498. Elite Polarization in South Korea: Evidence from a Natural Language Processing Model
- Author:
- Seungwoo Han
- Publication Date:
- 10-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- East Asia Institute (EAI)
- Abstract:
- Political polarization in elite politics of South Korea has remained a serious issue in the past decade. Seungwoo Han, Adjunct Lecturer at the Rutgers, the State University of New Jersey, examines the development of political polarization in the National Assembly by analyzing the political language and expressions used in the subcommittee meeting minutes through natural language processing. The result demonstrates that while the political polarization has waxed and waned over time, a surge in polarization was spotted during the 20th National Assembly. Han attributes the intensification of polarization to the impeachment of President Park Geun-hye and the following Moon Jae-in government’s attempt to correct the injustice of the mischief of previous governments. Author also warns that severe political polarization can only lead to a deadlock in legislative decisions, thus neglecting the need of citizens in important matters irrelevant of ideological dichotomy.
- Topic:
- Democracy, Polarization, and Natural Language Processing
- Political Geography:
- Asia and South Korea
499. State of Minority Rights in Asia: Trends from India, Bangladesh, Nepal, Mongolia and Thailand
- Author:
- Niranjan Sahoo
- Publication Date:
- 09-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- East Asia Institute (EAI)
- Abstract:
- In this issue briefing, Dr. Niranjan Sahoo, Senior Fellow at the Observer Research Foundation in New Delhi, provides an analysis of five countries across Asia on the worrying trend in the erosion of civil liberties of minorities in recent years. In the case of India, Bangladesh, Nepal, and Mongolia, he first identifies how the existence of legal and constitutional provisions to protect minorities was only nominal in nature. Minorities have suffered from a lack of civil and political representation, and have faced restrictions on their religious freedoms in practice. He also points out the limited influence of global human rights actors due to a lack of coherent and sustained pressure. Sahoo, while noting the successes of Thailand’s LGBTQ rights, concludes that the inability and apathy of state institutions, lack of resources, and majoritarian politics, provide a bleak projection of the state of minority rights.
- Topic:
- Human Rights, Religion, Minorities, Democracy, and Civil Liberties
- Political Geography:
- Bangladesh, India, Mongolia, Asia, Nepal, and Thailand
500. Direct Democracy: Changing Contexts and Trends in Asia
- Author:
- Francisco A. Magno
- Publication Date:
- 08-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- East Asia Institute (EAI)
- Abstract:
- In this issue briefing, Dr. Francisco A. Magno, Director of the Jesse M. Robredo Institute of Governance at De La Salle University, provides an overview and analysis of the seven country case studies included in ADRN’s Working Paper Series on Direct Democracy in Asia. Magno highlights the disparity between theoretical legal frameworks for direct democracy and the actual implementation of said initiatives across three categories of democratic mechanisms: formal direct democratic mechanisms, namely referendums, recalls, and petitions; participatory planning and budgeting mechanisms; and platforms for digital citizen engagement. He concludes that, though new trends in formal and informal citizen participation are promising, direct democracy is being stifled by the dominance of existing representative democratic systems and officials, and the participation of civil society in governance is often only nominal in nature. Asian democracies will need to achieve a better balance between representative and direct democracy if they aim to genuinely pursue democratic ideals.
- Topic:
- Science and Technology, Democracy, Accountability, Participation, and Direct Democracy
- Political Geography:
- Asia