221. Revising down the rise of China
- Author:
- Roland Rajah and Alyssa Leng
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Lowy Institute for International Policy
- Abstract:
- China will likely experience a substantial long-term growth slowdown owing to demographic decline, the limits of capital-intensive growth, and a gradual deceleration in productivity growth. Even with continued broad policy success, our baseline projections suggest annual economic growth will slow to about 3% by 2030 and 2% by 2040, while averaging 2–3% overall from now until 2050. China would still become the world’s largest economy, but it would never enjoy a meaningful lead over the US and would remain far less prosperous and productive per person even by mid-century.
- Topic:
- Demographics, Economy, Economic Growth, and Strategic Competition
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, and United States of America