Author: / Political Geography: Europe

4601. An Alliance in Crisis: Europe Needs to Act Quickly to Defend Itself

Author:: Max Bergmann
Publication Date:: 06-2017
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for American Progress - CAP
Abstract:: President Donald Trump’s European trip has thrown the trans-Atlantic alliance into crisis. The president’s unwillingness to reaffirm the U.S. commitment to Article 5 of the NATO treaty—that an attack on one NATO member is an attack on all—not only has revealed that America has become an unreliable ally but also has cast doubt on the integrity of NATO’s Article 5 and therefore the alliance itself. This is incredibly dangerous, as Europe is facing a clear and present security threat from the Russian Federation. Weakness invites aggression, and President Trump’s disdain for the alliance, as well as his apparent desire to appease Russia by removing sanctions,1 is practically inviting Russian President Vladimir Putin to test the strength of America’s Article 5 commitment. For the past 70 years, Europe has relied on America to guarantee its security, but should Putin instigate a security crisis, Europe will not be able to count on a Trump-led America to deter Russia or to come to Europe’s aid. Europe may now be on its own. Yet in this volatile and dangerous geopolitical moment, Europe is presently not ready or able to ensure its own defense. It needs to act fast.
Topic:: Defense Policy, NATO, Military Strategy, and Regionalism
Political Geography:: Europe

4602. The European Union and Turkey in 2017: Move On or Apart?

Author:: Michael Werz
Publication Date:: 07-2017
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for American Progress - CAP
Abstract:: Turkey’s efforts to negotiate for full membership in the European Union have now dragged on for more than a decade. Instead of bringing Turkey and the EU closer together, today the two are more estranged than ever before—and rapidly moving in opposite directions. While many of the relevant European countries have—albeit with difficulties—managed to stave off a wave of populist nationalism for the time being and are on a solid or at least stable growth path, the economic and political environment in Turkey continues to deteriorate. With mounting private debt, often denominated in foreign currencies, Turkey is desperately dependent on foreign direct investment—two-thirds of which comes from EU member states—and a renegotiation of the customs union.1 Even more concerning has been the profound political polarization, ethnic tensions, and sectarianism that have come to dominate public life in Turkey. The ruling party has overseen an enormous centralization of power, jailing opposition parliamentarians, reassigning thousands of judges and prosecutors, and bringing relentless political pressure to bear on Turkish civil society organizations. At last count, 15 of Turkey’s 191 universities have been closed by government decree, more than 130 journalists have been jailed, 178 media outlets have been shut down or put under government control, and 5,000 university professors from 112 universities have been dismissed.2 At the same time, a low-intensity civil war continues between the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) and the Turkish state in Eastern Anatolia, with dozens of casualties on both sides every week.3 Cumulatively, these developments have brought the relationship between the EU and Turkey to a decision point—it is time for the EU to revisit past strategies, readjust, and devise a path forward that encompasses both elements of a hard line approach when it comes to human rights and democracy within Turkey and an even stronger emphasis on continued engagement. At times, these strategies will exclude each other, but given the current state of affairs, there is no alternative. All elements of the complex relationship are at play and should be considered assets in a redefined EU strategy, one that will increasingly have to shift from political pressures to economic quid pro quo to generate the necessary leverage. A stronger approach is not only needed to save Turkey from further deterioration; these developments also have a direct impact on Europe, given Turkey’s close ties with the continent and with large emigrant communities, especially in Germany, the Netherlands, and France. While there is consensus that the current turmoil within the European Union and in Turkey requires decisive action, EU policymakers still disagree about the best path forward. Traditional tools of policy engagement—the membership process, high-level consultations, and increased economic cooperation—more often have seemed to exacerbate problems in recent years than resolve them, and other options are lacking. Each one of these tools has become less effective the more Turkey has gravitated into a state of centralized authoritarianism. Given this current situation, a more systematic and strategic engagement with Turkish civil society is one of the few potentially productive avenues open to EU policymakers who seek to support Turkish democracy and maneuver it toward more enlightened EU-Turkish relations.
Topic:: Diplomacy, International Trade and Finance, Regional Cooperation, Treaties and Agreements, European Union, and Regionalism
Political Geography:: Europe and Turkey

4603. Turkey’s Parliament

Author:: Alan Makovsky
Publication Date:: 12-2017
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for American Progress - CAP
Abstract:: The combination of post-coup emergency rule and the phasing in of the new presidential system has reinforced President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s role as the virtually unassailable ruler of Turkey. Emergency rule has now been extended five times since the attempted coup in July 2016, with no end in sight. But even without emergency rule, the new presidential system affirmed in the April 16 referendum promises the hollowing out of institutions that once, for better or worse, were fairly autonomous. The judiciary is now little more than an arm of the Justice and Development Party, better known as AKP, government; its key positions are appointed by Erdoğan—who is AKP leader as well as president of the nation—and by the AKP-dominated Parliament. The military, too, is now mostly under the thumb of the government—unlike the judiciary, appropriately so, if not politicized. Following the next election, the prime ministry will be abolished. The president will stand alone atop the executive branch, his power of appointment unreviewable. The reach of the executive branch itself will be significantly broadened, including increased authority even over civil society.1 Many observers expect that Erdoğan’s position will remain unchallenged and that the AKP will hold onto power for many years to come. But AKP dominance of Turkish governance actually could be limited or removed entirely in elections that must be held by November 3, 2019—assuming those elections are conducted fairly.2 The winning presidential candidate must win with a majority of votes cast, at least by the second round. This requirement is enshrined in the constitution; unlike the rules on parliamentary elections, it is not changeable without a constitutional amendment. And, although the polarizing Erdoğan is far ahead of other potential candidates in popularity thus far,3 it is by no means clear that he would win a majority of votes in a fairly conducted, head-to-head second round.4 As for Parliament, the AKP has won a sizable majority of seats in 4 of the 5 elections it has contested since its founding—winning a clear plurality of seats in the other election. The AKP has also captured more than 49 percent of the popular vote in 2 of the last 3 elections.5 Yet, the next election will be Turkey’s first in which voters cast separate, simultaneous votes for president and Parliament. It is difficult to predict how that may affect voter preferences. Significantly, the result of the parliamentary vote could still affect how Turkey is governed. As suffocating as presidential power is likely to be under the new system, there may nevertheless be some breathing room for a meaningful Parliament, and some measure of parliamentary checks and balances on the presidency, depending on the preferences of the Turkish voter. The following briefly details the duties and responsibilities of Parliament under the new system.
Topic:: Authoritarianism, Democracy, Leadership, Legislation, Parliamentarism, and Power
Political Geography:: Europe, Turkey, and Asia

4604. Is Turkey Experiencing a New Nationalism?

Author:: John Halpin, Michael Werz, Alan Makovsky, and Max Hoffman
Publication Date:: 02-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for American Progress - CAP
Abstract:: A new CAP study finds broad consensus among Turks about the dimensions of Turkish national identity and the nation's relationship to the rest of the world.
Topic:: Civil Society, Nationalism, Social Order, and Identity
Political Geography:: Europe, Turkey, and Asia

4605. A New Era of EU-NATO Cooperation: How to Make the Best of a Marriage of Necessity

Author:: Kristi Raik and Pauli Järvenpää
Publication Date:: 05-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
Abstract:: The challenges confronting both the European Union and NATO today are severe and complex: e.g. terrorism, refugee and migration crisis, hybrid and cyber threats, and a Russia willing to break international law and other treaties and agreements, thus undermining the post-World War II international order. This report argues that the importance of EU-NATO cooperation, based on shared values and interests, has become more critical than ever. Hence, the report seeks to identify and analyse the most crucial and promising areas of cooperation between the EU and NATO. It is divided into three parts. The first examines the short history of EU-NATO cooperation on defence and security from 1998 up to the present day. The second part focuses on two areas of cooperation: hybrid threats and strengthening defence capabilities. The third part offers conclusions and recommendations, stressing that for EU and NATO member states there is no “business as usual“. The two areas highlighted in the report, countering hybrid threats and developing European defence capabilities, offer avenues for new and much-needed cooperation. The member states should understand that developing these capabilities is not beyond their reach, should they decide to act together.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, NATO, European Union, and Hybrid Threats
Political Geography:: Europe and Baltic States

4606. Building Capacity for the EU Global Strategy

Author:: Tony Lawrence, Henrik Praks, and Pauli Järvenpää
Publication Date:: 06-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
Abstract:: A degraded security situation, the Brexit referendum and the election of a US President at best indifferent to European security matters have led the Member States to search for new security and defence solutions and for new ways to demonstrate European cohesion. The debate on an EU defence dimension is thus livelier than it has been for many years. But, EU security and defence efforts will amount to little if the EU’s new level of ambition is not underpinned by effective military capabilities. Until very recently, European defence budgets have been in decline, and agreed capability shortfalls have not been addressed. Defence cooperation, long recognised as a necessity if the Member States are to deliver the real capability that both the EU and NATO require, is limited by political concerns over sovereignty and trust, technical issues, and the continued preference of the Member States to procure from national suppliers. The uncoordinated and inefficient use of defence budgets leads to a lack of standardisation, poor interoperability, duplication, diminished competitiveness in Europe’s defence industry, and the wasting of money. New initiatives are on the table – Permanent Structured Cooperation, the Coordinated Annual Review on Defence and the Commission’s Defence Action Plan and Defence Fund – which together can have a positive and transformative impact. They will provide the Member States with a recharged set of tools to support collaborative capability development. Historically, though, the obstacle to defence cooperation has not been the lack of tools, but the lack of political will to make use of them.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Markets, European Union, Brexit, and Defense Industry
Political Geography:: Europe

4607. First on the Front Lines – the Role of Volunteers in Countering Russia’s Military Aggression against Ukraine

Author:: Dmitri Teperik, Anna Bulakh, and Grigori Senkiv
Publication Date:: 08-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
Abstract:: Russia’s military aggression gave rise to many spontaneous social and economic developments in Ukraine. At this critical moment, and against the backdrop of a series of dramatic events – the Revolution of Dignity in 2013–2014, the subsequent annexation of Crimea, and the armed conflict in the east of the country that developed from artificially provoked separatist sentiments directed from outside the region – people showed a strong will to self-organise, albeit for a short period of time. Thus, one can say that the birth of the mass volunteer movement played a decisive role in preserving the integrity of the Ukrainian state, thereby meeting the demands of the period of crisis. The patriotically-minded population, aware of the significant dangers posed by ongoing events, sought to fill the gaps of leadership that existed not only in political and socio-economic realms, but also in defence and national security. The voluntary movement thus partly assumed several functions of a government that had shown itself unable to respond effectively to hybrid threats – making it a unique phenomenon in the history of modern Europe. But just who were these volunteers? What motivated them and brought them together? How could ordinary people spontaneously organise themselves to contain the military threat – and to be first on the front lines? To explore such questions, ICDS established an interdisciplinary research team to study the involvement of volunteers in defending Ukraine against Russia’s aggression. Recognising that our study cannot cover every single aspect of this complex phenomenon, our objective instead has been a more modest one: to provide the public with an outside perspective that can foster deeper understanding of how a volunteer military movement can be formed during a chaotic period of active military operations. We hope that this analysis will be also useful to the Baltic states, where volunteers are already extensively involved in national defence. As expected, when we started the project we found that the phenomenon of military volunteers in Ukraine had been rather thinly studied. It is thus welcome that some publications covering and highlighting this topic have been released during our research period. It should also be noted that the personal stories of those who were “first on the front lines” still carry enormous emotional weight. In a country that is de facto still at war, it is difficult to track, fully understand, or reliably analyse complex processes such as the volunteer movement. Accordingly, our work required the development of an effective and objective approach to analysing the processes of creating, developing and integrating volunteer units. We hope that this report will serve as a starting point for further research and expert discussion.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Civil Society, Armed Forces, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

4608. Ethics vs. Ethos in US and UK Megabanking

Author:: Edward J. Kane
Publication Date:: 05-2017
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:: Company law in the US and UK fails to acknowledge that authorities’ propensity to rescue giant banks from the consequences of insolvency assigns taxpayers a coerced and badly structured equity stake in too-big-to-fail institutions. The entrenched managerial norm of maximizing stockholder value lends a misplaced legitimacy to efforts by TBTF managers to take on dangerous levels of tail risk because their bank’s deep downside is effectively eliminated by the prospect of unlimited taxpayer support. Conventional tools of prudential regulation constrain but do not de-legitimate this behavior. To accomplish that end, this paper calls for: (1) a formal recognition of the fiduciary duties that TBTF firms owe to taxpayers and (2) criminalizing aggressive pursuit of safety-net subsidies as “theft by safety net.”
Topic:: Finance, Ethics, Banks, Banking, and Ethos
Political Geography:: United Kingdom, Europe, North America, and United States of America

4609. Basic Principles and Means of the Formation of a Common Identity of Ukrainian Citizens

Author:: Valeriya Klymenko and Hanna Pashkova
Publication Date:: 06-2017
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: National Security and Defence
Institution:: Razumkov Centre
Abstract:: The materials presented in this issue are a result of the third stage of the Razumkov Centre’s project “Formation of a Common Ukrainian National Identity under New Conditions: Features, Prospects and Challenges”. From the results of the previous stages of the project we were able to form a comprehensive picture of various identity aspects of Ukrainian citizens, their hierarchy and interrelations and to identify features determined by the impact of national, linguistic, cultural, age and other factors. A particular task of the project’s third stage was the research focus on basic components of identity: the system of values inherent to the citizens of Ukraine, their features and regional differences. The struggle to promote European values in Ukraine was the driving force of the Revolution of Dignity; and the continuing confrontation of Ukraine with Russian aggression represents a struggle of different value-based systems. Establishing common values as the basis for a common national identity is a critical task for consolidation of Ukrainian society. The results of the public opinion survey conducted by the Razumkov Centre in March 2017 and published herein make it possible not only to understand value orientations of Ukrainian society, but also to compare them with values of citizens of some European countries as well as values of Russian citizens. This was made possible by having the Razumkov Centre’s survey include the same questions used in the international comparative World Values Survey research. The results of the study confirm that formation of the value system of Ukrainians and their identity is affected by complex social and political processes – the military conflict with Russia, protracted economic crisis, and political instability. This leads to a conflicted and internally contradictory nature of these value orientations. Positive trends may be considered to include the predominance of a common civil identity, an increase in Ukrainian national identification. On the other hand, there is a concern about the low level of trust among citizens of Ukraine in other members of society and government institutions and reliance on a “strong leader”. Another task was to determine the key components of state policy on the formation of a common national identity in terms of its content, institutional and organisational elements. For this purpose the Razumkov Centre conducted the expert survey of 106 experts: representatives of national and local government, research and higher educational institutions, political parties and non-governmental organisations. Survey results demonstrated an understanding among the expert community of the procedural nature of a national identity formation and, at the same time, the need for targeted government actions in this area, including the development and implementation of the appropriate national policy. To gain a more comprehensive approach to formation of a common national identity, the Razumkov Center has conducted interviews with leading national scientists and experts in philosophy, political science, sociology, ethnic policy, linguistics, and cultural studies. Based on the results of all stages of the project, the Razumkov Centre has prepared an updated draft Conceptual Approach to the formation of a common national identity of Ukrainian citizens. The Razumkov Centre believes that this document could be the basis for further discussion, elaboration, adoption and implementation by the government. “Hybrid” war waged against Ukraine makes these steps especially urgent.
Topic:: Citizenship, Ethnicity, Language, Nation-State, and Identity
Political Geography:: Europe and Ukraine

4610. Political Culture and Parliamentarism in Ukraine: Current State and Main Problems

Author:: Valeriya Klymenko and Hanna Pashkova
Publication Date:: 12-2017
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: National Security and Defence
Institution:: Razumkov Centre
Abstract:: The Revolution of Dignity, countering Russia’s aggression and the controversial, at times painful for society, process of reform implementation in different sectors have significantly aggravated the problem of efficiency of people’s interests representation mechanisms operated by government bodies, as well as the issue of people exercising their constitutional right to participate in the management of public affairs. The evolving relationship between government and society attests, on yet another occasion in the modern history of Ukraine, to the exact same phenomenon: the period of society’s enthusiasm, active, even sacrificial participation in political processes, and high public expectations change to disappointment, despair and apathy threatening to turn into aggression. Electing candidates, who in the moment of elections seemed to match public expectations for government representatives, changes to negative, even hostile attitude with time. The level of trust in elected higher government institutions in such periods drops from highest possible to minimal levels, as it happened in 2005-2009 and 2014-2017. Today, the growing activism of civil society and manifestations of its major creative potential after the second Maidan are combined with the risks and dangers that this energy might become destructive for democracy. This problem has two components: special aspects of people’s political culture, on the one hand, and the efficiency of mechanisms for implementing their political will, representative institutions – on the other. Without understanding these aspects, their mutual influence and correlation, the process of improving democracy institution in Ukraine will keep going on according to the “trial and error” scenario, while political system operation remains doomed to regular crises, which might turn into more “revolutions” at extreme points. Democratic system stability today is impossible without further constructive (not just protesting) participation of citizens equipped with knowledge of political institutions and skills to participate in them. The main goal of the Razumkov Centre’s Project “Political Culture and Parliamentarism in Ukraine: Ways to Improve Representative Democracy” is to use the study of the current state and special aspects of Ukrainian citizens’ political culture, in particular, their attitude to interest representation institutions, and analysis of the most topical problems influencing the efficiency of operation of the highest representative and the only legislative body in Ukraine – the Verkhovna Rada, in order to create recommendations for the development of an adequate policy for citizens’ political culture formation and optimisation of political institutions with the purpose of raising the quality of democratic representation.
Topic:: Citizenship, Domestic Politics, Political Culture, and Parliamentarism
Political Geography:: Europe and Ukraine

4611. Fear Thy Neighbor. Radicalization and Jihadist Attacks in the West

Author:: Lorenzo Vidino, Francesco Marone, and Eva Entenmann
Publication Date:: 06-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
Abstract:: Over the last three years Europe and North America have been hit by an unprecedented wave of terrorist attacks perpetrated by individuals motivated by jihadist ideology. Who are the individuals who have carried out these attacks? Were they born and raised in the West? Or were they an “imported threat”, refugees and migrants? How did they radicalize? Were they well educated and integrated, or social outcasts? Did they act alone? What were their connections to the Islamic State? The answers to these and other questions have large implications for our understanding of the threat facing us and, consequently, help us design sounder policy solutions built on empirical evidence. This study, the first of its kind, seeks to analyze the demographic profile, radicalization trajectories and connections to the Islamic State of all the individuals who have carried out attacks.
Topic:: Radicalization, Refugees, Islamic State, Ideology, and Jihad
Political Geography:: Europe and North America

4612. Out of Africa. Why People Migrate

Author:: Giovanni Carbone
Publication Date:: 10-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
Abstract:: The EU is struggling to cope with the so-called “migration crisis” that has emerged over the past few years. Designing the right policies to address immigration requires a deep understanding of its root causes. Why do Africans decide to leave their home countries? While the dream of a better life in Europe is likely part of the explanation, one also needs to examine the prevailing living conditions in the large and heterogeneous sub-Saharan region. This Report investigates the actual role of political, economic, demographic and environmental drivers in current migration flows. It offers a comprehensive picture of major migration motives as well as of key trends. Attention is also devoted to the role of climate change in promoting migration and to intra-continental mobility (two-thirds of sub-Saharan migrant flows start and end within the region). Two country studies on Eritrea and Nigeria are also included to get a closer sense of local developments behind large-scale migration to Europe.
Topic:: Demographics, Migration, Politics, Economy, and Crisis Management
Political Geography:: Africa, Europe, and Sub-Saharan Africa

4613. In Conversation with Diane Abbott

Publication Date:: 11-2017
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Mile End Institute, Queen Mary University of London
Abstract:: Diane Abbott talks to Professor Philip Cowley about her career and current topics happening in UK politics and the labour party.
Topic:: Governance, Leadership, Domestic Politics, and Labour Party
Political Geography:: United Kingdom and Europe

4614. Hennessy Lecture 2017 - In Conversation with Lord Neil Kinnock

Publication Date:: 11-2017
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Mile End Institute, Queen Mary University of London
Abstract:: Peter Hennessy in conversation with Neil Kinnock
Topic:: Governance, Leadership, and Domestic Politics
Political Geography:: United Kingdom and Europe

4615. Mile End Institute - In Conversation with John Bercow

Publication Date:: 11-2017
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Mile End Institute, Queen Mary University of London
Abstract:: John Bercow talks to Professor Phil Cowley about why he didn't invite Donald Trump to the houses of parliament and other current issues facing British politics.
Topic:: Politics, Governance, Leadership, and Conservatism
Political Geography:: United Kingdom and Europe

4616. The Impact of Energy Prices on Product Innovation: Evidence from the UK Refrigerator Market

Author:: François Cohen, Matthieu Glachant, and Marie Söderberg
Publication Date:: 01-2017
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for International Environmental Studies, The Graduate Institute (IHEID)
Abstract:: This paper uses product-level data from the UK refrigerator market to evaluate the impact of electricity prices on product innovation. Our best estimate is that a 10% increase in the electricity price reduces the average energy consumption of commercialized refrigerator models by 2%. A large share of this reduction is explained by a reduction of freezing space. We also show that the exit of energy-inefficient products contributes more to energy reduction than the launch of new energy-efficient models. These findings suggest that innovation – the development of better technologies embodied in new products – does not respond strongly to energy price variations.
Topic:: Innovation, Electricity, Efficiency, and Energy
Political Geography:: United Kingdom and Europe

4617. The EU and Israel – Partnership and the weight of history

Author:: Toby Vogel
Publication Date:: 09-2017
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:: Fifty years ago, a fierce war between Israel and its neighbours changed the map of the Middle East and transformed Israeli politics and its relations with the wider world. The effects of that Six-Day War are still being felt today. They created an enduring cycle of Israeli occupation, Palestinian resistance, terror, and Israeli repression. The Arab defeat of 1967 also led to the formation of a Palestinian national movement, at the time embodied by the Palestine Liberation Organization. The most immediate outcome of the war was Israel’s occupation of the Sinai Peninsula, the Gaza Strip, the West Bank, East Jerusalem, and the Golan Heights, all condemned in UN Security Council Resolution 242 of November 1967. Israel later handed Sinai back to Egypt and withdrew from Gaza and some of the West Bank, but still maintains an iron grip on both territories, which have also witnessed accelerated settlement construction under Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Israel has not only flouted countless UN Security Council resolutions, it has also committed widespread human rights violations and war crimes, notably during the war in Gaza in August 2014. David Ben-Gurion, the country’s founding prime minister, said a few months after the Six-Day War: "If I have to choose between a small Israel, without territories, but with peace, and a greater Israel without peace, I prefer a small Israel." In pursuing a hardline course, Israel’s leadership dismissed Ben-Gurion’s views as out-of-touch sentimentality. Ben-Gurion’s position was not an expression of human kindness: he was seeking to preserve Israel as a Jewish homeland, which would be impossible with a large share of Arabs on its territory. But he also understood that the permanent occupation of Gaza and the West Bank would undermine Israel’s security and its democratic institutions
Topic:: History, European Union, Partnerships, Leadership, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Europe, Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

4618. Democracy and its Deficits: The path towards becoming European-style democracies in Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine

Author:: Ghia Nodia, Denis Cenusa, and Mikhail Minakov
Publication Date:: 12-2017
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:: Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine are three participating states of the European Partnership that have chosen to conclude Association Agreements with the European Union, often at the expense of relations with their most powerful neighbour, Russia. They are also rather similar in their levels of democratic development. Within a post-Soviet space, they stand out for their relatively high level of democratic freedoms and political pluralism; none of them, however, can be considered a consolidated democracy, and most analysts describe them as uncertain or hybrid political regimes that combine features of autocracy and democracy. This paper offers a comparative analysis of the three countries’ political systems and aims to interpret both the roots of their relative success, and the nature of the deficits that prevent them from consolidating their democratic institutions. Among these deficits are problems stemming from ethnic, regional and cultural conflicts; strong and weak features in their general constitutional systems; the links between democratic development and government capacity to produce public goods; state capture (including control over the most influential media organisations) by powerful oligarchs and endemic corruption; underdevelopment of political parties and party systems; insufficient trust towards institutions of electoral democracy and a resulting propensity to use extra-constitutional means of political struggle. Civil society organisations have also failed penetrate the wider public and the anti-liberal discourse of traditionally dominant churches and anti-Western media and civil society groups is often supported by Russia. Despite these structural challenges, the commitment to European values and norms demonstrated by societies in these three countries gives hope that they can eventually consolidate their democratic institutions. It is argued that closer ties to the EU are important in explaining their relatively high level of democratic development. For this reason, the consistent and enhanced commitment of the European Union to this region is crucial to their continued success in this area.
Topic:: Democratization, Politics, European Union, Partnerships, Democracy, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:: Europe, Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia

4619. EU-Armenian Relations: Charting a fresh course

Author:: Hrant Kostanyan and Richard Giragosian
Publication Date:: 11-2017
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:: The EU-Armenia Comprehensive and Enhanced Partnership Agreement (CEPA), initialled in March 2017, presents a fresh start for the deepening of relations between the two parties in the wake of Armenia’s abortive Association Agreement and related Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement (DCFTA). Despite a difficult and complicated context, both the EU and Armenia have demonstrated the necessary political will to negotiate a new compromise agreement that takes into account Armenia’s commitments and limitations as a member of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU). CEPA retains a considerable amount of content from the sacrificed Association Agreement, as seen in the areas of political dialogue, justice and freedom, and even security. The new agreement also includes a substantial amount of the EU acquis in legally binding provisions across a range of sectoral areas of cooperation, although the effectiveness of CEPA’s essential degree of conditionality remains an open question. The issues most affected by Armenia’s EAEU membership are core trade policy elements and the consequential loss of any DCFTA. CEPA may be viewed in EU policy terms as an example of ‘differentiation’ and greater flexibility, as advocated by the 2015 European Neighbourhood Policy review, although this was prompted by Russian force majeure. The ultimate impact of CEPA remains a test of implementation, which still poses undeniable challenges for Armenia.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, Regional Cooperation, European Union, and Free Trade
Political Geography:: Europe and Armenia

4620. The Fifth Eastern Partnership Summit: Between hyperbole and understatement

Author:: Hrant Kostanyan
Publication Date:: 11-2017
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:: Summits are glitzy events that bring together the highest level of officials – the heads of state and government. These occasions naturally attract the interest of both the media and the public, raise expectations, increase tensions, create drama and heighten the rhetoric – but sometimes they end in disappointment. And this is exactly what the EU would like to avoid in the upcoming 5th Eastern Partnership (EaP) summit, which will bring together most of the leaders of the EU and its Eastern partners – namely Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine – on November 24th in Brussels. The summit will be essentially a stocktaking exercise in which its principals reflect on the difficulties that the Partnership has encountered and the reforms it has undertaken to meet and mitigate the growing challenges. But more importantly, in the midst of the political hyperbole, the summit will aim to chart a pragmatic way forward to bring about tangible and positive results for citizens in a host of sectors ranging from energy efficiency and transport to youth employment and SMEs.
Topic:: European Union, Partnerships, Regional Integration, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:: Europe, Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia

4621. The case for a Euro-Arab summit

Author:: James Moran
Publication Date:: 09-2017
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:: The EU holds regular summit meetings with key partner countries such as the US, China and India and with various regions, notably Africa, Latin America and Asia. But there is one major region that has been conspicuous by its absence from the summit agenda. I refer, of course, to the Arab world, which is an odd omission to say the least, given the host of common challenges that preoccupy both the EU and this region. For years, a number of EU member states, and virtually all those on the Arab side, have pushed for such a meeting, or at least did not obstruct it, but it was only last December at the EU-Arab League Foreign Ministers’ Cairo meeting that a consensus in favour of a summit was found, and a commitment made to “work towards” it. Since then, the idea has been endorsed by the LAS (League of Arab States) annual summit, and there have been some working-level exchanges, with a date sometime next year in mind. But preparations have yet to get underway. Without greater impetus now, there is little chance of it taking place in 2018, given the lead time needed to ensure that the 50 countries involved (28 plus institutions on the EU side and the 22 Arab League member states) are properly represented at Head of State and/or Government level. Why the delay? Clearly, new schisms have appeared in recent months on the Arab side, namely the crisis over Qatar, which affects both the GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council) countries and most of the rest of the LAS, which is split on the Saudi-led initiative to isolate Doha. There may also be some doubts on the EU side about the prospects for a good turnout, given ‘summit fatigue’ and domestic distractions such as Brexit. And it certainly won’t be easy for either side to come up with meaningful political messages on the most important issues, and there is a risk that it will degenerate into a talking shop, albeit an elevated one.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, European Union, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Europe and Arab Countries

4622. Allies Against Atrocities: The Imperative for Transatlantic Cooperation to Prevent and Stop Mass Killings

Author:: Lee Feinstein and Tod Lindberg
Publication Date:: 03-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide, United States Holocaust Memorial Museum
Abstract:: A generation after Rwanda and Bosnia, many of the world powers who apologized for their lack of an early and effective response to genocide during the 1990s have yet to organize themselves sufficiently to act early and effectively to prevent or stop mass atrocities. The horror of Syria is Exhibit A. As responses to past atrocity crimes show, averting and halting atrocities requires a coordinated and sustained effort by local, regional, and international actors. This report argues that a multilateral response is necessary and that the transatlantic region has a critical role to play in shaping and leading these efforts. The governments of the transatlantic community—the United States, Canada, and Europe—already devote significant resources and political capital to the prevention and amelioration of crises and conflicts, as well as to the pursuit of international development agendas. Without better cooperation among themselves and their like-minded cousins, efforts to address mass atrocities will continue to be reactive, slow, and devastating to human life and potential. Individual transatlantic countries should be involved in those efforts, each bringing its unique capacities to the table. From the vantage point of the report's authors, the United States has a particularly important role to play in encouraging greater transatlantic cooperation among states on this issue. Principle Recommendations: Devise and implement coordinated transatlantic atrocity prevention efforts Internationalize atrocity prevention efforts Improve coordination of financial sanctions Develop an international legal framework adequate to the challenge of atrocity prevention Prioritize civilian protection in military responses that include peacekeeping
Topic:: International Cooperation, Sanctions, Peacekeeping, Civilians, Atrocities, Transatlantic Relations, Atrocity Prevention, and Protection
Political Geography:: Europe, Canada, North America, and United States of America

4623. Assessing the Prospects for Transitional Justice in Georgia

Author:: Howard Varney
Publication Date:: 02-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The International Center for Transitional Justice (ICTJ)
Abstract:: After the 2012 parliamentary elections, there have been various attempts to address this past. These included the introduction of amnesties, the rehabilitation of torture victims, a proposed commission on miscarriages of justice; the creation of a unit for land restitution in the Office of the Prosecutor; and criminal proceedings against former senior officials. However, none of these measures proved effective. The proposed commission on miscarriages of justice was criticized and abandoned. Efforts at prosecutions were seen as politically motivated and lacking due process. Institutional reforms effected so far have not realized the desired results. Victims have received little or no support or acknowledgment. Towards the end of 2015, the International Center for Transitional Justice (ICTJ) was invited to Georgia to consider whether current conditions were conducive to a serious exploration of the past and the implementation of substantive transitional justice steps to reckon with its past conflicts and human rights abuses. ICTJ conducted interviews with key stakeholders and discussed a range of ideas with them. Interviewees pointed to the need for concerted steps to address the past, but highlighted the lack of political will as an inhibiting factor and noted that, outside of victim communities and organized civil society, the wider public prioritized economic prosperity over addressing past injustices. Nonetheless, victims of torture and property violations continue to push for restoration of property, guarantees of non-recurrence, and institutional reform. Based on this research and findings, this report assesses the prospects for transitional justice in Georgia and makes recommendations in this regard. Th is assessment takes place some seven years after ICTJ last carried out an assessment in Georgia. 2 In 2009 ICTJ stopped short of recommending formal transitional justice steps on the grounds that conditions were not conducive at that stage. Th is report makes recommendations for several steps for the consideration of Georgians. It does so on the understanding that while conditions may not necessarily be perfect, waiting longer may have a deleterious impact on the country. Indeed, ICTJ finds that it is time for concrete and meaningful steps to be taken to address the past as a contribution to reform and nation building.
Topic:: Elections, Transitional Justice, Accountability, and Truth and Reconciliation
Political Geography:: Europe, Caucasus, and Georgia

4624. Justice Mosaics: How Context Shapes Transitional Justice in Fractured Societies - Report

Author:: Roger Duthie
Publication Date:: 05-2017
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The International Center for Transitional Justice (ICTJ)
Abstract:: The contexts in which societies attempt to address legacies of massive human rights violations—by confronting impunity, seeking effective redress, and preventing recurrence—are integral to the concept of transitional justice. Such contexts can vary widely: they can include ongoing conflicts, post-authoritarian transitions, post-conflict transitions, and post-transitional periods. They can also differ in terms of institutional and political fragility as well as levels of economic and social development. Broad policy objectives in such contexts can range from rule-of-law promotion to conflict resolution, peacebuilding, vindication and protection of human rights, democratization, development, and social change. As the term suggests, however, the contexts in which societies undertake transitional justice processes are usually to some degree transitional. This is important because transitions create opportunities for addressing past injustice, while at the same time they retain continuities with the past that pose constraints or obstacles for doing so. The fact that context varies is important because the broader context affects the objectives of transitional justice efforts as well as the processes through which they develop, which in turn affect the specific responses that are most appropriate and feasible in each setting. Here processes refer to the different ways in which ideas and movements develop, promote, and coalesce in demands for accountability, acknowledgment, and reform in the aftermath of massive human rights violations.
Topic:: Reform, Criminal Justice, Institutions, Justice, Reparations, Gender, Truth and Reconciliation, and Youth Engagement
Political Geography:: Africa, Europe, Middle East, Asia, South America, and North Africa

4625. Trouble on the tracks: Averting the Turkey-EU ‘train wreck’

Author:: Asli Aydıntaşbaş
Publication Date:: 11-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:: With the European Parliament decision to “freeze” accession talks, Turkey’s decades-long engagement with Europe is in crisis. In 2016 Turkey-EU relations took a step forward, with a historic deal on refugee resettlement, but also a step back, with a sweeping crackdown in the wake of the failed 15 July coup and global criticism of Turkey’s human rights situation. Instead of populism and resentment, both Europe and Turkey need to develop “strategic patience” to anchor Turkey to Europe. Turkey’s history has been an ebb and flow between Westernisation and nativist reaction. It is important for the EU to think long-term about Turkey. One way to bypass the current impasse might be to offer Ankara an upgraded customs union, with political benchmarks for market access. Despite tensions, Turkey and the European Council should think about their shared interests and high degree of integration to avert a “train-wreck”.
Topic:: International Security and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Europe and Turkey

4626. EU differentiation and the push for peace in Israel-Palestine

Author:: Hugh Lovatt
Publication Date:: 10-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:: The adoption and streamlining of differentiation measures represents a unique and effective European contribution towards Israeli-Palestinian peace at a time in which the Middle East Peace Process in its current configuration has failed. Differentiation disincentives Israel’s illegal acquisition of territory and re-affirms the territorial basis of a two-state solution. It also feeds an Israeli debate over national priorities by framing the negative consequences that Israel will face in its bilateral relations if it continues its annexation of Palestinian territory. Despite Israeli efforts to erode consensus within the EU, differentiation continues to receive broad support among member states. EU officials must allow the correct, full, and effective implementation of existing legislation and policy positions relating to Israeli settlements European entities engaging in financial activity with Israeli settlements – even indirectly – could face serious legal, financial and reputational risks. The EU and its member states should offer more advice on the consequences of doing business with settlement-related entities.
Topic:: International Relations and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Europe and Israel

4627. Europe’s new counter-terror wars

Author:: Anthony Dworkin
Publication Date:: 10-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:: In recent years, several EU member states have launched military operations against terrorist groups overseas, but have given little apparent thought to the risks that these operations involve. Military action is only likely to succeed against terrorist groups when it is matched by a political solution on the ground. Otherwise it will be ineffective in reducing the threat of terrorism and may even be counterproductive. European countries are at risk of setting damaging legal precedents for the expansive use of force if they do not articulate clearer standards for when attacking terrorists overseas is permissible, both outside and within armed conflict. There has been an unnoticed convergence in the military practice of European countries and the US. Both are conducting operations that mix attempts to recapture ground from armed groups with direct counter-terrorist strikes. Even though ISIS is now on the defensive, the threat of jihadist groups in regions surrounding Europe will persist. EU member states should develop tighter guidelines for deciding when military force should be used against them.
Topic:: International Security and Counter-terrorism
Political Geography:: Europe

4628. From Renzi with Love: Italy’s Constitutional Referendum

Author:: Alexandr Lagazzi
Publication Date:: 11-2016
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Europeum Institute for European Policy
Abstract:: Regardless of its outcome, the Italian constitutional referendum will affect Italy’s position within the EU. Prime Minister Matteo Renzi proposes to simplify the legislative process by stripping the Senate of most its role in the law-making process whilst boosting the power of the executive branch. Voters will have the opportunity to decide whether to approve or decline these substantial constitutional changes on December 4, 2016, in the third constitutional referendum of the country’s history. The aim of this paper is to analyse the proposed bill and offer a prognosis of both the outcomes of the referendum in terms of Italy’s position within the EU before the 60th anniversary of the Rome Treaty in March 2017.
Topic:: International Relations and Political structure
Political Geography:: Europe and Italy

4629. Not a Leap but a Step in the Right Direction: Mogherini’s Structural and Personnel Reform of the EU’s Diplomatic Service

Author:: Tereza Novotná
Publication Date:: 03-2016
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Europeum Institute for European Policy
Abstract:: Federica Mogherini, the EU’s foreign policy chief, has recently been praised for mediating the Iran nuclear deal. However, policy action (or inaction) should not be the only metric by which to judge Mogherini’s successes and failures. Any High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy/Vice- President of the European Commission (HRVP) is also responsible for the effective organization and management of the European External Action Service (EEAS) and its officials. The importance of this issue lies in the fact that it is the EEAS personnel who prepares HRVP’s foreign policy proposals and represents the EU in third countries.
Topic:: International Relations and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Europe

4630. Should We Upgrade the V4-Turkey Dialogue?

Author:: Lucia Najšlová
Publication Date:: 06-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Europeum Institute for European Policy
Abstract:: At a time when the Visegrad Group (V4) is becoming a more ambitious regional bloc, several policymakers and analysts have floated the idea of deepening a dialogue with Turkey, a country of tremendous importance for the EU, and one that is enjoying unprecedented interest of policymakers, business circles and publics at large.2 Perhaps this should not come as a surprise – although the V4’s approach to the refugee crisis left some Western EU leaders questioning whether accepting the Eastern Europeans in the 2004 enlargement was a mistake – the V4 has a track-record of constructive engagement in the EU neighborhoods, and consistent support for further enlargement, including Turkey’s accession.
Topic:: International Cooperation and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Europe and Turkey

4631. Current Populism in Europe: Impact on the Political Landscape

Author:: Europeum
Publication Date:: 05-2016
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Europeum Institute for European Policy
Abstract:: Conference Programme
Topic:: Political stability and Populism
Political Geography:: Europe

4632. A New Helsinki Needed? What Security Model for Europe?

Author:: Stefan Meister
Publication Date:: 04-2016
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:: The Germany-Poland-Russia Trialogue Workshop held at the DGAP in December 2015 focused on security. It brought together a group of Russian, Pol- ish, and German experts to discuss their respective national security discourses and the security situation in Europe more generally. The three short papers includ- ed here provide brief analyses of how the security situation is currently perceived in each of the three countries. From the German side, the answer was the refugee crisis. Polish experts pointed to the threat posed by Russia, while the Russian speakers described their worries about color revolutions and regime change in the post-Soviet sphere. Certainly, perceptions of security threats differ greatly among EU member states, to say nothing of the difference between Russia and the EU as a whole. Only real understanding of our counterparts can help in forging a new modus vivendi and overcoming the dangerous situation in which Europe currently nds itself. The Germany-Poland-Russia Trialogues aim to forge better understand- ing of “the other side” through presentations and opportunities for discussion, offering crucial rst steps toward overcoming misperceptions and stereotypes. The Trialogue meets regularly under the aegis of the DGAP (German Council on Foreign Relations), IMEMO (Primakov Institute of World Economy and International Relations Russian Academy of Sciences), and PISM (Polish Institute of International Affairs) and in cooperation with and nancial support from SDPZ (Foundation for Polish-German Cooperation) and the Heinrich Böll Foundation’s Warsaw office
Topic:: International Security
Political Geography:: Europe

4633. The Eastern Mediterranean in 2020: Possible Scenarios and Policy Recommendations

Author:: Thanos Dokos
Publication Date:: 04-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:: ELIAMEP Policy Paper 26/2016 deals with the Eastern Mediterranean in 2020. It is edited by Director General of the Foundation Dr Thanos Dokos. The policy paper employs scenarios and includes policy recommendations. Findings are based on a conference organised by ELIAMEP and Konrad Adenauer Stiftung (KAS) in Athens on “The Eastern Mediterranean in 2020: Possible Scenarios and Policy Recommendations” . The conference was organised in cooperation with the EU Institute for Security Studies (EU-ISS) and with the support of NATO’s Public Diplomacy Division.
Topic:: Political Theory
Political Geography:: Europe

4634. The Juncker Plan 2.0 : the Belgian view

Author:: Fabian Willermain and Quentin Genard
Publication Date:: 10-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: A few weeks after the presentation by the European Commission of ‘Juncker Plan 2.0’, it is high time to look back at what has so far been achieved by the earlier version of the Juncker Plan – and how well it has worked for Belgium.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Europe

4635. Plan B after Brexit – What Britain can expect negotiating a Swiss-type arrangement with the EU

Author:: Jacqueline Breidlid and Cenni Najy
Publication Date:: 06-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: For those wishing to see the UK exit from the EU, Switzerland has become a poster child, an example of how a country outside the EU can retain access to the EU’s internal market, thereby flourishing economically, and yet retaining its sovereignty and independence. But can a similar arrangement to that of Switzerland really provide a suitable alternative – a “Plan B” – for the UK’s relationship with the EU? With the referendum providing potential exit for the UK from the EU rapidly approaching, a Swiss-type plan B deserves some serious consideration. This paper examines the central claims made by those who see Switzerland as a model for the UK’s future relationship with the EU and argues that the Swiss model is no Holy Grail for the UK.
Topic:: International Affairs and Brexit
Political Geography:: Europe

4636. Forgotten lessons for the Eurozone

Author:: John Ryan
Publication Date:: 05-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: A Monetary Union is one where there is a single fiat currency with a single monetary authority (a central bank). It also has a single interest and exchange rate, and a single legal entity responsible for issuing that currency across a geographic area. This combination of features required for a true monetary union suggests that many previous monetary unions, including the Latin Monetary Union (LMU) and the Scandinavian Monetary Union (SMU) were not proper monetary unions as such, while the Austro-Hungarian Monetary Union (AHMU) was and the Eurozone is.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Europe

4637. The rise of single motherhood in the EU: analysis and propositions

Author:: Sophie Heine
Publication Date:: 05-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: This paper will address a rising issue within the EU – the increase of single parent families. Firstly, we will draw a general picture of the disadvantages faced by single parents and outline the possible causes of this phenomenon. Secondly, we will attempt to sketch possible alternative solutions that could inspire policymakers at the national and European levels. Both in our analysis and recommendations, we will put a particular emphasis on the dynamic role played by norms and representations.
Topic:: International Affairs and Global Political Economy
Political Geography:: Europe

4638. What To Do With the UK? EU perspectives on Brexit

Author:: Charles Wyplosz
Publication Date:: 10-2016
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Slovak Foreign Policy Association
Abstract:: The negotiating table is almost set for Britain’s exit from the European Union. In recent months, the Brexit debate has been primarily focused on the UK’s future position within Europe. Little has been discussed about how this decision will affect the remaining 27 member states. With a preliminary date of March 2017 chosen to invoke Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty, now is the time to begin formally discussing the challenges that both the UK and EU will face during negotiations.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Europe

4639. Slovakia: (Re)Discovering of the international crisis management

Author:: Samuel Goda
Publication Date:: 04-2016
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Slovak Foreign Policy Association
Abstract:: The security environment in “wider Europe” has changed significantly in recent years. Depending on one’s preferences, a wide range of milestones may be named – the airstrikes in Yugoslavia, the 9/11 attacks, the Madrid attacks, the war in Afghanistan, the invasion of Iraq, etc. In this study, however, the main issue we are addressing is the Ukrainian crisis (or war), Ukraine being our direct neighbor and a country of special interest – and this being the issue, according to a wide range of experts, that has had the most impact on the region’s security in decades.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Europe

4640. Relations Between Russia and Europe: No Simple Solutions in Sight

Author:: S. Karaganov
Publication Date:: 12-2016
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: East View Information Services
Abstract:: The Crisis between Russia and the West is associated with Crimea and Russia’s actions in Donbass and Ukraine; in fact, it has deeper roots while its long-term repercussions might prove to be much graver than expect- ed. a large-scale armed clash cannot be excluded even if this possibility is gradually reducing; we should be ready to political confrontation and contracted economic ties. Today, Europe is facing an even greater threat: a civilizational divorce with Russia.
Topic:: International Relations and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Russia and Europe

4641. An “Atomized Caliphate” in Europe

Author:: Armen Oganesyan
Publication Date:: 12-2016
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: East View Information Services
Abstract:: A part of the western world, Europe, however, has been very selective about alien cultures and civilizations; not a “melting pot” american style, it is paying dearly for this function imposed on it. The disagreements on the migration issues in the european corridors of power threaten the cohesion of the european Unity. Frau Merkel who demon- strated a no mean determination to meet a new wave of migrants with maximal openness and tolerance had already accepted the failure of mul- ticulturalism. This means that Berlin has no answer to the question about how to cope with the migrants who have arrived in thousands and mil- lions to europe to stay.
Topic:: International Relations and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Europe

4642. The EU’s Policy Response to the Uprisings

Author:: Andrea Teti
Publication Date:: 04-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Arab Transformations Project, University of Aberdeen
Abstract:: The EU claimed it would learn the lessons of the Arab Uprisings with a ‘qualitative step forward’ in its approach to development, democracy, and security. However, an examination of the conceptual structure of revised EU Neighbourhood Policy (ENP) suggests EU policy changed little, and that in later incarnations it displayed a retrenchment towards conventional notions of democracy, development, and security, prioritising the latter over the former two. The Union seems to have failed to re-examine its approach to democracy, development, and security, falling back on approaches to all three which have been tried – and have failed – in the past.
Topic:: International Relations and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Europe and Middle East

4643. V Informe sobre El estado de la Unión Europea 2016: La encrucijada política de Europa

Author:: Fundación Alternativas
Publication Date:: 06-2016
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Fundación Alternativas
Abstract:: Informe en español. Versión pasapáginas aquí.
Topic:: International Relations and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Europe

4644. The state of the European Union 2016: Europe at the political crossroads

Author:: Fundación Alternativas
Publication Date:: 06-2016
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Fundación Alternativas
Abstract:: The 4th Report on the State of the European Union –”Europe at the political crossroads”– is published as a contribution to a campaign to relaunch the EU, motivated by the belief that the serious problems with which the Union is currently grappling can only be resolved if we address the political challenges it faces. The publication of this report coincides with perhaps the most difficult moment for the Union since its creation. With the EU still struggling to overcome the drastic impact of the economic crisis, it is threatened by the storm clouds of another recession or, at the very least, weak growth.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Europe

4645. Informe sobre sostenibilidad en España 2016: hoja de ruta hacia un modelo sostenible

Author:: Ana Belén Sánchez
Publication Date:: 05-2016
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Fundación Alternativas
Abstract:: Hace unos años propuse que entre los Informes que la Fundación Alternativas dedica a los grandes temas de nuestro país y de Europa –la Democracia, la Desigualdad, la Unión Europea, la Cultura– no podía faltar uno consagrado a la Sostenibilidad.
Topic:: International Relations and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Europe

4646. Al Qaeda and ISIS: Existential threats to the US and Europe

Author:: Frederick W. Kagan, Kimberly Kagan, Jennifer Cafarella, Harleen Gambhir, and Katherine Zimmerman
Publication Date:: 01-2016
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Institute for the Study of War
Abstract:: The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) and the Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute conducted an intensive multi-week exercise to frame, design, and evaluate potential courses of action that the United States could pursue to defeat the threat from the Islamic State in Iraq and al Sham (ISIS) and al Qaeda in Iraq and Syria. The planning group weighed the national security interests of the United States, its partners, its rivals, and its enemies operating in or influencing the conflicts in Iraq and Syria. It considered how current policies and interests are interacting in this complex environment. It identified the minimum endstates that would satisfy American national security requirements as well as the likely outcomes of current policies. The group also assessed the threat posed by al Qaeda and ISIS to the United States, both in the immediate and long term, and tested the probable outcomes of several potential courses of action that the United States could pursue in Iraq and Syria.
Topic:: Intelligence and International Security
Political Geography:: Europe and Middle East

4647. Czech-German Relations: A Dialogue in Place of Strategy, in Hope of Strategy and in Need of Strategy

Author:: Benjamin Tallis
Publication Date:: 12-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Institute of International Relations Prague
Abstract:: The Czech-German Strategic Dialogue has been hailed as a significant upgrading of relations between the two countries. However, while it holds great potential, the dialogue mainly covers practical or tactical cooperation and is currently lacking in real strategic content. This deficit reflects a wider lack of strategic convergence between the partners and requires political, rather than bureaucratic action to address it. Doing so will require a larger shift in foreign policy thinking and action, particularly on the Czech side," writes Benjamin Tallis in his newest policy paper
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Europe

4648. Migration: A Crisis Europe Can’t Keep Out

Author:: Benjamin Tallis
Publication Date:: 12-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Institute of International Relations Prague
Abstract:: Difficulties in persuading EU Member States (EUMS) to act in solidarity with each other – or with refugees – have led to a focus on the ‘external dimensions’ of the migration crisis. This has created a misleading impression of the crisis as external to, rather created by, the EU and EUMS. Equally misleadingly, this framing suggests that the crisis can be dealt with outside, rather within the EU – generally by trying to stop the flow of migrants to Europe. This policy paper challenges this framing and argues that the migration crisis is one of Europe’s own making – and one which must be addressed, primarily, at home," writes Benjamin Tallis in his new policy paper on migration.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Europe

4649. Czech Strategic Partnerships: A Practice in Need of a Vision

Author:: Michal Šimečka and Benjamin Tallis
Publication Date:: 09-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Institute of International Relations Prague
Abstract:: The concept of a strategic partnership is gaining prominence in Czech diplomatic practice, but its meaning and implications remain inadequately understood. The policy paper seeks to redress the situation by unpacking the concept and building a framework for understanding strategic partnerships in the Czech context. It argues that while it is not necessary to construct a rigorous definition, more coherence and clarity is needed for strategic partnerships to serve as a meaningful instrument of Czech foreign policy.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Europe

4650. Success or Failure? Assessment of the Readmission Agreement Between the EU and Turkey from the Legal and Political Perspectives

Author:: Berfin Nur Osso
Publication Date:: 10-2016
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Institute of International Relations Prague
Abstract:: The discussion paper by Berfin Nur Osso, former intern at the Institute of International Relations Prague and a senior undergraduate student at the Koç University in Istanbul majoring in Law and minoring in International Relations, focuses on the assessment of the readmission agreement between the EU and Turkey.
Topic:: International Affairs and Europe Union
Political Geography:: Europe and Turkey

4651. Empowered or Disempowered? The Role of National Parliaments during the Reform of European Economic Governance.

Author:: Aleksandra Maatsch
Publication Date:: 01-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies
Abstract:: This paper investigates how the intergovernmental reform process of European economic governance affected national parliaments’ oversight of this policy area. Which parliaments became disempowered and which managed to secure their formal powers – and why? The dependent variable of the study is operationalized as the presence or absence of “emergency legislation” allowing governments to accelerate the legislative process and minimize the risk of a default by constraining national parliaments’ powers. The paper examines how national parliaments in all eurozone states were involved in approving the following measures: the EFSF (establishment and increase of budgetary capacity), the ESM, and the Fiscal Compact. The findings demonstrate that whereas northern European parliaments’ powers were secured (or in some cases even fostered), southern European parliaments were disempowered due to the following factors: (i) domestic constitutional set-up permitting emergency legislation, (ii) national supreme or constitutional courts’ consent to extensive application of emergency legislation, and (iii) international economic and political pressure on governments to prevent default of the legislative process. Due to significant power asymmetries, national parliaments remained de jure but not de facto equal in the exercise of their control powers at the EU level. As a consequence, both the disempowerment of particular parliaments and the asymmetry of powers among them has had a negative effect on the legitimacy of European economic governance.
Topic:: Politics, Governance, Law, and Reform
Political Geography:: Europe

4652. Afghanistan’s Age of Transformation

Author:: Hamdullah Mohib
Publication Date:: 04-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Ambassadors Review
Abstract:: The Afghanistan of today would surprise most outsiders, even those who closely follow developments in the country. We are often wrongly branded as a failing state with a struggling government whose young people are fleeing en masse for Europe and whose military has lost control of the security situation. While anecdotal evidence can always be found to lend isolated support to such claims, this sweeping characterization offers a distorted picture of reality.
Topic:: Security, Fragile/Failed State, Governance, and Military Affairs
Political Geography:: Afghanistan and Europe

4653. The United States and the European Union: Essential Partners in a Turbulent World

Author:: Anthony Luzzatto Gardner
Publication Date:: 04-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Ambassadors Review
Abstract:: Four years ago the European Union won the Nobel Peace Prize for the “over six decades [in which it has] contributed to the advancement of peace and reconciliation, democracy, and human rights in Europe.” How quickly the mood has changed. While it has become fashionable to charge that the European Union is on the verge of collapse in the face of dire current challenges, rumors of the European Union’s demise would appear premature. The successes achieved in 2015, as well as the potential future areas of good news, are frequently underappreciated. The United States is firmly committed to investing in its relationship with the European Union. This is a partnership that delivers, as it will bring dividends to both the United States and the European Union for the long term.
Topic:: Peacekeeping, Democracy, Europe, and Europe Union
Political Geography:: Europe, United States of America, and European Union

4654. Europe and Israel: A Complex Relationship

Author:: Giorgio Gomel
Publication Date:: 05-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: There is some degree of ambivalence, mistrust, and even hostility between Europe and Israel. Europeans see Israel on a path of permanent occupation of Palestinian territories. Israel sees the European posture as unbalanced and biased against Israel. Economic and institutional linkages are strong. A further strengthening of relations is however difficult unless a peaceful settlement of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is reached. For the EU resolving the conflict is a matter of both interests and values. The engagement of the EU can take different forms, in the realm of sticks one may point to legislation concerning the labelling of products from Israeli settlements in the occupied territories and carrots such as the EU offer of a special privileged partnership with Israel. For the Israeli public a clearer perception of the costs of non-peace and the benefits from a resolution of the conflict could help unblock the stalemate and remove the deceptive illusion that the status quo is sustainable.
Topic:: Politics, Geopolitics, Israel, and Europe Union
Political Geography:: Europe and Israel

4655. Migration In Europe Bridging the Solidarity Gap

Author:: Pierre Vimont and Pierre Vimont
Publication Date:: 09-2016
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: Painfully and hesitatingly, the EU has managed to stem its migration crisis, regaining control of its borders and ensuring a dramatic drop in the flow of migrants. Yet, the migration issue is not going away, and the political debate around it persists. Europeans need to work together in a field where in the past they have been eager to act on their own; and they must define an integrated policy based on a genuine sense of solidarity.
Topic:: Migration
Political Geography:: Europe and European Union

4656. Does Party Politicization of Corruption Affect Voter Turnout

Author:: Andreas Bagenholm, Stephan Dahlberg, and Maria Solevid
Publication Date:: 11-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Quality of Government Institute, University of Gothenburg,
Abstract:: In this paper, we argue that the effects of corruption on voter turnout not necessarily have to be negative. We argue that voters’ willingness to participate in elections will increase when parties politicize the issue of corruption in electoral campaigns, as it indicates party responsiveness to voter concerns. We test this claim by using individual-level data from CSES coupled with unique context data on party politicization of corruption in campaigns. Our findings show that higher perceived levels of corruption are associated with lower voter turnout but that the negative effect of perceiving high corruption on turnout is reduced in an electoral context where corruption is politicized. The results thus show that if corruption is not politicized, individuals’ corruption perceptions exert a significant negative impact on turnout. By politicizing anti-corruption measures, political parties are acting policy responsive and by that they are also affecting voters’ decision whether to vote or not.
Topic:: Politics, Political Theory, and Political stability
Political Geography:: Europe, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand

4657. China’s Global Rise Can the EU and U.S. Pursue a Coordinated Strategy?

Author:: Philippe Le Corre and Jonathan Pollack
Publication Date:: 10-2016
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Brookings Institution
Abstract:: China’s emergence as a global economic power and its fuller integration in the international order are among the principal policy challenges facing Europe and the United States in the early 21st century. At the time of Beijing’s entry into the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2001, China (though already growing rapidly) was in global terms an economic actor of limited consequence. A decade and a half later, China’s transformation is without parallel in economic history. Over the past 15 years, China has experienced an eightfold increase in GDP, enabling it to serve as the pri- mary engine of global economic growth in the early 21st century. It has leapfrogged from sixth to second place among the world’s economies, trail- ing only the United States in absolute economic size. In addition, China has become the world’s leading trading state and is now the second largest source of outward foreign direct investment. Change of this magnitude has enhanced China’s political power and eco- nomic leverage. It has also stimulated China’s internal economic evolution, simultaneously expanding the power of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) while also contributing to major growth in the private sector. China has also begun to think bigger, devoting increased attention to the rules of global economic governance. Although Beijing insists it has no intention of supplanting the existing international order, China contends that chang- ing power realities will require modification of global rules.
Topic:: International Cooperation, International Political Economy, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:: China, America, and Europe

4658. Back from the Brink Toward Restraint and Dialogue between Russia and the West

Author:: William Perry and Deep Cuts Commission
Publication Date:: 06-2016
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Brookings Institution
Abstract:: This report contains a number of bold proposals on how to better manage relations between the West and Russia in order to avert worst-case scenarios. Specifying that cooperative solutions are pos- sible without giving up on the fundamental interests of each side, it warrants a close look by officials in both Moscow and Washington.
Topic:: International Relations, International Cooperation, International Security, International Affairs, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:: Russia, America, Europe, and Global Focus

4659. EU 2017: We Will Rise to the Occasion

Author:: David O’Sullivan
Publication Date:: 09-2016
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Council of American Ambassadors
Abstract:: This may sound like a gloomy time to ponder Europe’s future, particularly in print, but as a veteran of many ups and downs in the EU’s history, I believe it’s important to go beyond the headlines and take stock of what is being done to relaunch the European Union in a way that is both sustainable and better understood by everyday people. It is this gap between the perception and reality of what the European Union is and does that poses perhaps the biggest internal challenge to European integration.
Topic:: Political stability, Europe Union, and Brexit
Political Geography:: Europe

4660. The Role of the European Parliament: Between External and Internal Challenges

Author:: Tuomas Iso-Markku
Publication Date:: 11-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: As a result of the Spitzenkandidaten process, the relationship between the European Parliament and the European Commission – and particularly their leaders – has strengthened. This inter- institutional connection also has a party-political dimension, being intrinsically linked to the emergence of a ‘grand coalition’ between the two biggest groups of the EP. However, in an EU beset by crises, the political agenda is firmly under the control of the member states and the European Council, which makes it difficult for the EP to take advantage of its closer relationship with the Commission, as the latter acts very cautiously.
Topic:: International Organization, International Affairs, Democracy, and Europe Union
Political Geography:: Europe

4661. Brexit's Impact on the EU Institutions: Immediate implications and possibilities for reform

Author:: Teija Tiilikainen
Publication Date:: 10-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: The direct implications of Brexit for the EU’s political system will be less significant than the indirect consequences, opening up possibilities for reform. The treaty rules on a qualified majority in the Council might need to be reconsidered due to Brexit, which will also lead to a major reshuffle of the EU’s critical political groups in the European parliament after the 2019 EP elections. The political pressure to consolidate the EMU in terms of strengthening its governance and its own fiscal capacity may grow as a part of the general reform process following on from Brexit. If the treaties are reopened, principled amendments to the institutions and decision-making of the common foreign and security policy as well as further steps within the common security and defence policy are very likely to occur. Any internal reform project shouldn’t compromise the unity and coherence of the EU any further, however, as it is currently highly exposed to both internal and external pressures.
Topic:: International Relations, International Political Economy, European Union, and Brexit
Political Geography:: Europe

4662. WHAT EUROPE CAN EXPECT FROM GERMANY'S CHANGING MIGRATION POLICY

Author:: Fabrizio Tassinari and Sebastian Tetzlaff
Publication Date:: 11-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: While the refugee crisis has exposed the severe limitations of EU decision-making, German choices have had a knock-on effect on the rest of Europe. The politicization of German migration policy will likely force Angela Merkel to take a step towards more conservative positions ahead of the 2017 federal election. This will again require the EU to adjust to Berlin’s policy turns.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Migration, Immigration, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:: Europe and Germany

4663. PEOPLE FACE INSECURITY AND THREATS AFTER FORCED RETURNS

Author:: Maybritt Jill Alpes and Ninna Nyberg Sørensen
Publication Date:: 11-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: The current European Agenda on Migration aims at reducing the arrival of asylum seekers and irregular migrants. For this purpose, various mechanisms of ‘effective and humane return’ are introduced. But can deportation ever be humane and what would be required? VU postdoc researcher Maibritt Jill Alpes and DIIS senior researcher Ninna Nyberg Sørensen take a closer look at international cooperation on migration and the risks migrants and rejected asylum seekers may face upon a forced return. They argue that international cooperation on migration has criminalized departure and consequently contributed to put forcible retuned people at risk not only of economic and psychosocial harm, but also of monetary extraction, arbitrary detention and criminal persecution in the hands of state agents. They argue that more emphasis must be put on different post-deportation risks and measures to avoid them in order to guarantee the safety of border apprehended and returned persons.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, International Cooperation, Immigration, and Refugee Crisis
Political Geography:: Europe

4664. Eritrea's Economy: Ideology and Opportunity

Author:: Seth Kaplan
Publication Date:: 12-2016
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: Eritrea is often in the news for all the wrong reasons: its high rates of migration to Europe (it has sent more refugees to Europe in recent years than any other African nation), its conflicts with neighboring Ethiopia and Djibouti, and controversy over its mandatory and indefinite national service conscription program. Human rights activists, in particular, have long singled out the country for criticism, calling it “the North Korea of Africa.” The inappropriateness of that comparison is increasingly recognized—but misunderstandings about the nature of the Eritrean regime continue to abound.
Topic:: Migration and Refugee Crisis
Political Geography:: Africa, Europe, and Eritrea

4665. FROM EU STRATEGY TO DEFENCE SERIES New kid on the block The European Commission and European defence

Author:: Dick Zandee
Publication Date:: 12-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:: The newly launched European Defence Action Plan (EDAP) opens the door to EU spending on defence. This Policy Brief analyses why the EDAP has been launched, what it is and how it will work in practice. It argues that the plan is a step change in the European Commission’s growing involvement in defence and a potential game changer in solving the problem of European military shortfalls. European capitals should therefore embrace the new kid on the block and make full use of the potential offered by the EDAP.
Topic:: Defense Policy, International Political Economy, and Military Affairs
Political Geography:: Europe and Global Focus

4666. FROM EU STRATEGY TO DEFENCE SERIES EU Strategy and European Defence What Level of Ambition?

Author:: Luis Simon
Publication Date:: 11-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:: The global proliferation of precision-strike systems and the concomitant emergence of anti-access and area denial (A2/AD) capabilities challenges the foundations of Western global military-technological supremacy. What does this mean for current EU debates on military ambition? This policy brief argues that the assumption of the freedom of (military) access and movement, which has guided European strategic thinking since the end of the Cold War, is no longer valid. Europeans should get to grips with the new military-strategic paradigm and translate this into an updated ambition level and related capabilities.
Topic:: International Affairs, Military Strategy, Military Affairs, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:: Europe and European Union

4667. European insurance union and how to get there

Author:: Dirk Schoenmaker
Publication Date:: 12-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Bruegel
Abstract:: What are the arguments for and against centralisation of insurance supervision? What would be the scope of a possible insurance union, and what would the legal basis be? How rapid should the move to insurance union be? This Policy Brief sets out to answer these questions.
Topic:: Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: Europe

4668. The Trump Presidency Will Force Defining Choices On Europe

Author:: Vibeke Schou Tjalve
Publication Date:: 11-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: Despite the general impression that the US president-elect Donald Trump has given us very little clue to predict his foreign policy doctrine, a guiding framework behind his scattered statements does exist. In this DIIS Policy Brief, Senior Researcher Vibeke Schou Tjalve takes a closer look at the surprisingly consistent philosophy of power and interest that Trump has aired during the past two decades. Trump is labelled a ‘nationalist’ and an ‘isolationist’. These are understandable labels, and yet: Trump is not your classical cultural-conservative nostalgic with deep veneration for old alliances or shared norms. His American nationalism does not linger on the memories of the New World European roots. Rather, it is founded on a deeply Darwinist conception of the world as a cutthroat competition, in which raw strength - not cultural characteristics – matters. As such, Trump will have no sentimentality for NATO or Europe, and he will view the world through largely value-neutral eyes. This leaves Europe with a defining set of questions, and to influence a Trump presidency, we should understand and appreciate this not-so-simple nationalism, Tjalve writes.
Topic:: International Relations and Political Power Sharing
Political Geography:: America and Europe

4669. NATO’s Future: A Tale of Three Summits

Author:: Hans Binnendijk
Publication Date:: 11-2016
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Transatlantic Relations
Abstract:: NATO tends to make progress on key policy issues and capability from summit to summit. Major shifts in the orientation of the Alliance can be traced to significant summits like London (1990), Washington (1999), Prague (2002), and Lisbon (2010). During the past two years, NATO has held a summit in Wales (4-5 September 2014) and one in Warsaw (8-9 July 2016). A third minisummit is planned for Brussels in 2017. These first two summits taken together again significantly shifted the focus of the Alliance in the face of a series of new and dangerous challenges in the East and South. They shifted NATO’s posture in the East from benign neglect to allied reassurance to some degree of deterrence. The proposed force posture is inadequate to defeat a determined Russian short warning attack. Considerable increases in forward deployed forces (perhaps seven brigades) plus strengthened reinforcements would be necessary for NATO to hold its ground. But the Warsaw formula does provide what might be called “deterrence by assured response.” In the South, Allies recognized the complexity of the threats to Europe and sought to define NATO’s role in dealing with them. The third summit next year in Brussels could set the stage for further progress on both fronts. Much more still needs to be done. But with these fairly dramatic changes, NATO is in the process of once again restructuring itself so that it will not be “obsolete” in the effort to provide security for the transatlantic allies. This paper briefly analyzes 20 key issues now facing the Alliance and highlights the progress made in Wales and Warsaw. It also suggests some directions for the Brussels summit and beyond.
Topic:: Defense Policy, NATO, International Cooperation, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Brussels, Warsaw, and Wales

4670. The Eastern Question: Russia, the West and Europe’s Grey Zone

Author:: Daniel S. Hamilton and Stefan Meister
Publication Date:: 08-2016
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Transatlantic Relations
Abstract:: Russia under Vladimir Putin has become a revisionist power seeking to undo the post-Cold War settlement, control its neighborhood, and disrupt Western influence. By annexing the eastern Ukrainian region of Crimea and waging war in other parts of the country, the Kremlin seeks not only to undermine Ukraine's sovereignty but the European security order. The comfortable verities of the ''post-Cold War era'' are a paradigm lost. The Soviet succession continues to rumble, and a new era has begun - more fluid, more turbulent, more open-ended.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, NATO, Treaties and Agreements, Partnerships, Grand Strategy, Conflict, and Putin
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and North America

4671. Private Security in Practice: Case Studies from Southeast Europe

Author:: Franziska Klopfer, Nelleke van Amstel, Ola Çami Arjan Dyrmishi, Rositsa Dzhekova, Donika Emini, Anton Kojouharev, Marko Milošević, Žarko Petrović, and Mentor Vrajolli
Publication Date:: 01-2016
Content Type:: Case Study
Institution:: Geneva Centre for Security Sector Governance (DCAF)
Abstract:: Why and how should private security be regulated? A group of researchers from Albania, Bulgaria, Kosovo, Serbia and Switzerland has been examining these questions as part of a multi-year project called the Private Security Research Collaboration Southeast Europe (“PSRC”) 1 . The interest of the state in interfering with the activities of private security companies is twofold: first, to ensure that basic pillars of the modern democratic state such as the protection of human rights and the democratic order are not threatened. Second, because the stability of the state and the happiness and prosperity of its citizens also depend on factors such as functioning security and economy. In order to better target its regulation of private security, it would therefore be important for the state to know how private security companies (PSCs) impact on a country’s human rights situation, the democratic order, a functioning security and (to a lesser extent) economy. For Private Security in Practice: Case studies from Southeast Europe the PSRC researchers assembled eight case studies that explore the impact that private security has on security, human rights and the democratic order in four Southeast European countries: Albania, Bulgaria, Kosovo and Serbia. Since regulation should not only limit the negative impact but also foster the positive contribution that private security can make, the authors specifically looked at how challenges posed by PSCs could be avoided and how opportunities can be seized.
Topic:: Security, Governance, Law Enforcement, and Weapons
Political Geography:: Geneva, Europe, Kosovo, Serbia, Bulgaria, and Albania

4672. Citizens of Ukraine on Security: Personal, National, and its Elements

Author:: Alla Chernova and Valeriya Klymenko
Publication Date:: 01-2016
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Geneva Centre for Security Sector Governance (DCAF)
Abstract:: BACK TO RESOURCES CITIZENS OF UKRAINE ON SECURITY SURVEY 2016 Abstract This publication presents the results of a nationwide sociological survey conducted by the Razumkov Centre's Sociological Service in the framework of Ukraine's security governance challenges monitoring project, implemented by the Geneva Centre for the Democratic Control of Armed Forces (DCAF), jointly with Razumkov Centre, with support from the Kingdom of the Netherlands. The survey and the publication were made possible through financial support from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Kingdom of the Netherlands. The assessments and conclusions made by the authors do not necessarily coincide with official position of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Kingdom of the Netherlands. The survey was conducted by the Razumkov Centre's Sociological Service on 27-31 May 2016, in all regions of Ukraine, except Crimea and the occupied territories of Donetsk and Luhansk regions. 2,019 respondents aged above 18 years were polled. The sampling error does not exceed 2.3%.
Topic:: Security, Gender Issues, Human Rights, Sociology, Law Enforcement, Reform, Conflict, and State
Political Geography:: Geneva, Europe, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe

4673. The Complaint-Handling System and Civilian Oversight of the Palestinian Security Sector

Author:: Mahmoud Alawna, Nora-Elise Beck, Vlatko Cvrtila, Fatima Itawi, Saša Janković, Arnold Luethold, Frederic Maio, and Felix Tusa
Publication Date:: 08-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Geneva Centre for Security Sector Governance (DCAF)
Abstract:: This working paper aims to support the ongoing efforts of the Palestinian executive authorities, security forces, independent institutions, civil society organisations (CSOs) and the media to strengthen the Palestinian complaints system. It identifies deficits in the complaints system of the Palestinian security sector and proposes recommendations to rectify them. It particularly stresses the need to improve coordination between the vast number of complaints units and calls for greater clarity on the role of civil society and the media. It hopes to raise awareness for these issues among Palestinian decision-makers and citizens and international actors. When fully functioning, the complaint handling system can be an effective source of information for the government to improve its performance and develop its services. The paper builds upon the discussions of the complaints working group, consisting of Palestinian government officials and representatives of the security forces, civil society and the media. DCAF presented the recommendations to senior Palestinian decision-makers in late September 2016, providing these with cases of international best practice.
Topic:: Security, Civil Society, Human Rights, Governance, and Law Enforcement
Political Geography:: Geneva, Europe, Palestine, and West Bank

4674. Exploring the Uncharted Export: An Analysis of Tourism-Related Foreign Expenditure with International Spend Data

Author:: Michele Coscia, Ricardo Hausmann, and Frank Neffke
Publication Date:: 11-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:: Tourism is one of the most important economic activities in the world: for many countries it represents the single largest product in their export basket. However, it is a product difficult to chart: "exporters" of tourism do not ship it abroad, but they welcome importers inside the country. Current research uses social accounting matrices and general equilibrium models, but the standard industry classifications they use make it hard to identify which domestic industries cater to foreign visitors. In this paper, we make use of open source data and of anonymized and aggregated transaction data giving us insights about the spend behavior of foreigners inside two countries, Colombia and the Netherlands, to inform our research. With this data, we are able to describe what constitutes the tourism sector, and to map the most attractive destinations for visitors. In particular, we find that countries might observe different geographical tourists' patterns - concentration versus decentralization -; we show the importance of distance, a country's reported wealth and cultural affinity in informing tourism; and we show the potential of combining open source data and anonymized and aggregated transaction data on foreign spend patterns in gaining insight as to the evolution of tourism from one year to another.
Topic:: Economics, Political Economy, and Tourism
Political Geography:: Europe, Colombia, South America, and Netherlands

4675. Governance and the Challenge of Development Through Sports: A Framework for Action

Author:: Matt Andrews, Stuart Russell, and Cristina Barrios
Publication Date:: 07-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:: Previous papers such as Russell, Barrios & Andrews (2016), Guerra (2016), and Russell, Tokman, Barrios & Andrews (2016) have aimed to provide an empirical view into the sports economy. This proves to be a difficult task, given the many definitions of ‘sports’ and data deficiencies and differences in the sports domain (between contexts and over time). The emerging view in these previous papers provides interesting information about the sports sector, however: it shows, for instance, that different contexts have differently intensive sports sectors, and that sports activities overlap with other parts of the economy. This kind of information is useful for policymakers in governments trying to promote sports activities and use sports to advance the cause of broad-based social and economic development. This paper is written with these policymakers in mind. It intends to offer a guide such agents can use in constructing sports policies focused on achieving development goals (what we call development through sports[1]), and discusses ways in which these policymakers can employ empirical evidence to inform such policies. The paper draws on the concept of ‘governance’ to structure its discussion. Taking a principal-agent approach to the topic, governance is used here to refer to the exercise of authority, by one set of agents, on behalf of another set of agents, to achieve specific objectives. Building on such a definition, the paper looks at the way governmental bodies engage in sports when acting to further the interests of citizens, most notably using political and executive authority to promote social and economic development. This focus on governance for development through sports (asking why and how governments use authority to promote sports for broader social and economic development objectives[2]) is different from governance of sports (which focuses on how governments and other bodies exercise authority to control and manage sports activities themselves), which others explore in detail but we will not discuss.[3] The paper has five main sections. A first section defines what we mean by ‘governance’ in the context of this study. It describes an ends-means approach to the topic—where we emphasize understanding the goals of governance policy (or governance ends) and then thinking about the ways governments try to achieve such goals (the governance means). The discussion concludes by asking what the governance ends and means are in a development through sports agenda. The question is expanded to ask whether one can use empirical evidence to reflect on such ends and means. One sees this, for instance, in the use of 'governance indicators' and 'governance dashboards' in the international development domain. A second section details the research method we used to address these questions. This mixed method approach started by building case studies of sports policy interventions in various national and sub-national governments to obtain a perspective on what these policies tend to involve (across space and time). It then expanded into an analysis of sports policies in a broad set of national and sub-national governments to identify common development through sport ends and means. Finally, it involved experimentation with selected data sources to show how the ends and means might be presented in indicators and dashboards—to offer evidence-based windows into development through sports policy regimes. Based on this research, sections three and four discuss the governance ends and means commonly pursued and employed by governments in this kind of policy process. The sections identify three common ends (or goals)—inclusion, economic growth, and health—and a host of common means—like the provision of sports facilities, organized activities, training support, financial incentives, and more—used in fostering a development through sports agenda. Data are used from local authorities in England to show the difficulties of building indicators reflecting such policy agendas, but also to illustrate the potential value of evidence-based dashboards of these policy regimes. It needs to be stated that this work is more descriptive than analytical, showing how data can be used to provide an evidence-based perspective on this domain rather than formally testing hypotheses about the relationship between specific policy means and ends. In this regard, the work is more indicative of potential applications rather than prescriptive. A conclusion summarizes the discussion and presents a model for a potential dashboard of governance in a development through sports policy agenda.
Topic:: Development, Governance, Sports, and Economic Policy
Political Geography:: Europe and England

4676. Keeping One's Eye on the Ball: Exploring the Intensity of Sports Activities across Europe

Author:: Stuart Russell, Carla Tokman, Douglas Barrios, and Matt Andrews
Publication Date:: 07-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:: As described in Russell, Barrios & Andrews (2016), past attempts to understand the sports economy have been constrained by a number of data limitations. For instance, many of these accounts use revenues when value added measures would be more appropriate. Similarly, many accounts use top-down definitions that result in double counting and an inflated estimate of the size of the sports economy. More importantly, past accounts have focused most of their efforts estimating the overarching size of the sports economy. Constrained by aggregated data that groups a wide range of sports-related economic activities together, they primarily discuss the size of the sports-related economic activity. Their focus on answering the question of "How big?" conceals substantial differences between activities. Core sports activities, such as professional sports teams, behave very differently than activities, like sporting goods manufacturing that are closer to the periphery of the sports economy. Likewise, there are even important differences amongst core sports activities. Professional sports teams are very different than fitness facilities, and they might differ in different respects. Guerra (2016) demonstrates that, when detailed, disaggregated data are available, the possibilities to analyze and understand the sports are greatly increased. For instance, Guerra (2016) were able to conduct skills-based analyses, magnitude analyses, employment characterizations, geographic distribution analyses, and calculations of the intensity of sports activities. The sector disaggregation, spatial disaggregation, and database complementarity present in the Mexico data used in that paper therefore enables a more detailed and nuanced understanding of sports and sports-related economic activity. Data with characteristics similar to those found in Mexico are few and far between. We have, unfortunately, been unable to completely escape such data limitations. However, we have compiled and analyzed a large array of employment data on sports-related economic activities in Europe. In the paper that follows, we describe our analyses of these data and the findings produced. Section 1 begins with a discussion of employment in sports and an explanation of why we chose this variable for our analyses. Section 2 provides an overview of the data used in this paper particularly focusing on the differences between it and the Mexico data discussed in Guerra (2016). It also describes the methodology we use. We analyze these data using one of two related measures to understand the intensity of sports-related activities across different geographic areas in countries. We also construct measures at the level of a single country in order to compare across entire economies. At the international level, we adopt the revealed comparative advantage (RCA) measure that Balassa (1965) first developed to analyze international trade. Within specific countries, however, we use a population-adjusted version of the RCA measure known as RPOP. Section 3 presents the most relevant findings and Section 4 discusses their limitations. Section 5 concludes with the lessons learned and avenues for future research. While there are limitations on these analyses, they can give policymakers a better understanding of the distribution and concentration of sports across space. Such information can serve as an important input for sports-related investment decisions and other sports-related policies.
Topic:: Employment, Sports, Economy, and International Development
Political Geography:: Europe, Central America, and European Union

4677. Getting the Ball Rolling: Basis for Assessing the Sports Economy

Author:: Stuart Russell, Douglas Barrios, and Matt Andrews
Publication Date:: 07-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:: Data on the sports economy is often difficult to interpret, far from transparent, or simply unavailable. Data fraught with weaknesses causes observers of the sports economy to account for the sector differently, rendering their analyses difficult to compare or causing them to simply disagree. Such disagreement means that claims regarding the economic spillovers of the industry can be easily manipulated or exaggerated. Thoroughly accounting for the industry is therefore an important initial step in assessing the economic importance of sports-related activities. For instance, what do policymakers mean when they discuss sports-related economic activities? What activities are considered part of the "sports economy?" What are the difficulties associated with accounting for these activities? Answering these basic questions allows governments to improve their policies. The paper below assesses existing attempts to understand the sports economy and proposes a more nuanced way to consider the industry. Section 1 provides a brief overview of existing accounts of the sports economy. We first differentiate between three types of assessments: market research accounts conducted by consulting groups, academic accounts written by scholars, and structural accounts initiated primarily by national statistical agencies. We then discuss the European Union’s (EU) recent work to better account for and understand the sports economy. Section 2 describes the challenges constraining existing accounts of the sports economy. We describe two major constraints - measurement challenges and definition challenges - and highlight how the EU's work has attempted to address them. We conclude that, although the Vilnius Definition improves upon previous accounts, it still features areas for improvement. Section 3 therefore proposes a paradigm shift with respect to how we understand the sports economy. Instead of primarily inquiring about the size of the sports economy, the approach recognizes the diversity of sports-related economic activities and of relevant dimensions of analysis. It therefore warns against attempts at aggregation before there are better data and more widely agreed upon definitions of the sports economy. It asks the following questions: How different are sports-related sectors? Are fitness facilities, for instance, comparable to professional sports clubs in terms of their production scheme and type of employment? Should they be understood together or treated separately? We briefly explore difference in sports-related industry classifications using data from the Netherlands, Mexico, and the United States. Finally, in a short conclusion, we discuss how these differences could be more fully explored in the future, especially if improvements are made with respect to data disaggregation and standardization.
Topic:: Development, Sports, Economy, and Economic Policy
Political Geography:: Europe and European Union

4678. Off Pitch: Football’s financial integrity weaknesses, and how to strengthen them

Author:: Matt Andrews and Peter Harrington
Publication Date:: 01-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:: Men’s professional football is the biggest sport in the world, producing (by our estimate) US $33 billion a year. All is not well in the sector, however, with regular scandals raising questions about the role of money in the sport. The 2015 turmoil around FIFA is obviously the most well known example, creating a crisis in confidence in the sector. This study examines these questions, and the financial integrity weaknesses they reveal; it also offers ideas to strengthen the weaknesses. The study argues that football’s financial integrity weaknesses extend far beyond FIFA. These weaknesses have emerged largely because the sector is dominated by a small elite of clubs, players and owners centered in Europe’s top leagues. The thousands of clubs beyond this elite have very little resources, constituting a vast base of ‘have-nots’ in football’s financial pyramid. This pyramid developed in recent decades, fuelled by concentrated growth in new revenue sources (like sponsorships, and broadcasting). The growth has also led to increasingly complex transactions—in player transfers, club ownership and financing (and more)—and an expansion in opportunities for illicit practices like match-fixing, money laundering and human trafficking. We argue that football’s governing bodies – including FIFA – helped establish this pyramid. We explore the structural weaknesses of this pyramid by looking at five pillars of financial integrity (using data drawn from UEFA, FIFA, clubs, primary research, and interviews). In the first pillar of Financial Transparency and Literacy we find that a vast majority of the world’s clubs and governing bodies publish no financial data, leaving a vast dark space with no transparency. In the second pillar of Financial Sustainability we estimate that a majority of global clubs and governing bodies are at ‘medium to high risk’ of financial failure. We find, additionally, that European tax debts have grown despite Financial Fair Play, and confederations and FIFA contribute to a pattern of weak Fiscal Responsibility. We then create a new metric of Financial Concentration and find that the football sector is at ‘high risk’ of over-concentration, which poses existential questions for many clubs and even leagues. In the final pillar of Social Responsibility and Moral Reputation, we find that football’s governing bodies face a crisis of legitimacy stemming from a failure to tackle moral turpitude, set standards and regulate effectively. We suggest a set of reforms to re-structure FIFA in particular, separating its functions and stressing its regulatory role.
Topic:: Crime, Sports, Economy, and World Cup
Political Geography:: Europe, Global Focus, and European Union

4679. The Workforce of Pioneer Plants

Author:: Ricardo Hausmann and Frank Neffke
Publication Date:: 01-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:: Is labor mobility important in technological diffusion? We address this question by asking how plants assemble their workforce if they are industry pioneers in a location. By definition, these plants cannot hire local workers with industry experience. Using German social-security data, we find that such plants recruit workers from related industries from more distant regions and local workers from less-related industries. We also show that pioneers leverage a low-cost advantage in unskilled labor to compete with plants that are located in areas where the industry is more prevalent. Finally, whereas research on German reunification has often focused on the effects of east-west migration, we show that the opposite migration facilitated the industrial diversification of eastern Germany by giving access to experienced workers from western Germany.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Labor Issues, Labor Policies, Human Capital, Diversification, and Mobility
Political Geography:: Europe, Germany, and European Union

4680. Britain and the European Union: Lessons from History

Publication Date:: 03-2016
Content Type:: Research Paper
Institution:: Mile End Institute, Queen Mary University of London
Abstract:: Over the last four decades, membership of the European Union has touched almost every area of national life. It affects how we trade, the laws by which we are governed, where we go on holiday and who is entitled to live here. Its influence has been felt across British politics, from the Northern Ireland peace process to the struggle for equal pay. The ‘European question’ divided the Labour Party in the 1970s, split the Conservative Party in the 1990s, and drove the two most successful insurgent parties of modern times: the Social Democratic Party and the United Kingdom Independence Party. This summer, the UK will hold only the third nationwide referendum in its history, on whether to remain in the EU or to seek a new position outside.
Topic:: Politics and Elections
Political Geography:: Britain, Europe, and Northern Ireland

4681. Corruption Reports 2016: Hidden Economy in Turkey

Author:: Hasan Kirmanoğlu and K. İpek Miscioğlu
Publication Date:: 12-2016
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
Abstract:: SELDI network have proposed to prepare a hidden economy overview to contribute to understanding the hidden economy and tracing its links with corruption that are significant for both anti-corruption practices and increasing welfare in Southeastern Europe (SEE) countries. Anti-corruption policies alone are unlikely to produce wide societal support, unless they are imbedded in economic reform and increase in prosperity. Therefore, a broadening of the anti-corruption debate from sheer law enforcement towards more economic grounded rationale, such as addressing the nexus between corruption and hidden economy, is needed.
Topic:: Corruption, Law Enforcement, Economy, Business, and Tax Systems
Political Geography:: Europe, Turkey, and Middle East

4682. Study and Reports on the VAT Gap in the EU-28 Member States: 2016 Final Report

Author:: Grzegorz Poniatowski, Mikhail Bonch-Osmolovsky, and Misha V. Belkindas
Publication Date:: 09-2016
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:: The analysis serves as the Final Report for the DG TAXUD Project 2015/CC/131, “Study and Reports on the VAT Gap in the EU-28 Member States”, which is a follow up to the reports published in 2013, 2014, and 2015. In this report, estimates of the VAT Gap and the Policy Gap for the year 2014 are presented, as well as revised estimates for the years 2010–2013 “due to the transmission” of Eurostat national accounts from the ESA95 to the ESA10. This update covers Croatia, which was not included in the previous updates. While it was hoped that the update would also cover Cyprus, it has not been possible due to incomplete national accounts data. The VAT Gap is a measure of VAT compliance and enforcement that provides an estimate of revenue loss due to fraud and evasion, tax avoidance, bankruptcies, financial insolvencies, as well as miscalculations. It is defined as the difference between the amount of VAT collected and the VAT Total Tax Liability (VTTL), which is expressed in the report in bothabsolute and relative terms. The VTTL is the theoretical tax liability according to tax law, and is estimated using a “top-down” approach.
Topic:: Economic Growth, Tax Systems, Macroeconomics, Fiscal Policy, Innovation, VAT, and Trade
Political Geography:: Europe, Poland, Croatia, and European Union

4683. The impact of pension system reform on projected old-age income: the case of Poland

Author:: Elena Jarocinska and Anna Ruzik-Sierdzińska
Publication Date:: 05-2016
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:: This paper analyses the distributional effects of the Polish old-age pension reform introduced in 1999. Following a benchmark Mincer earnings equation, and using a newly developed microsimulation model we project future pension benefits for males born in years 1969–1979. We find that inequality of predicted first pension benefits measured by the Gini coefficient increases from 0.119 to 0.165 for cohorts of men retiring between 2036 and 2046. The observed increased inequality of pension benefits is due to the decreasing share of initial capital that is based on a more generous DB formula in the total accumulated pension capital. At the same time, inequality in replacements rates decreases due to a stronger link between contributions paid through the entire working life and pension benefits.
Topic:: Demographics, Economics, Labor Issues, Inequality, Social Policy, Public Policy, Innovation, and Aging
Political Geography:: Europe, Poland, and European Union

4684. Interaction between monetary policy and bank regulation: lessons for the ECB

Author:: Marek Dabrowski
Publication Date:: 02-2016
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:: The European Central Bank (ECB) recently became engaged in macro-prudential policies and the micro-prudential supervision of the largest Euro area banks. These new tasks should help complete financial integration, and make the Euro area more resilient to financial instability risks. However, the multiplicity of mandates and instruments involves a risk of their inconsistency which could compromise the ECB’s core price-stability mandate as well as its independence. The experience of central banks during the recent global financial crisis confirms that such risks are not purely hypothetical.
Topic:: Monetary Policy, Economic Growth, Banks, Macroeconomics, Innovation, Trade, and European Central Bank
Political Geography:: Europe and European Union

4685. Fiscal Sustainability: Conceptual, Institutional, and Policy Issues

Author:: Marek Dabrowski
Publication Date:: 08-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:: 'Since 2008, the world economy has been facing the consequences of the global financial crisis. As a result, many economic policy paradigms have been revised, and this process is far from complete. The policy area, which needs a fundamental rethinking (especially in advanced economies), relates to the role of public finance and fiscal policy in ensuring economic growth and financial stability. The primary task will be to develop a new analytical approach and detailed indicators, which are necessary to provide a correct diagnosis and effective recommendations.' What are the “safe” levels of budget deficit and public debt during “normal” or “good” times? Is there a single norm of fiscal safety?
Topic:: Debt, Financial Crisis, Finance, Global Financial Crisis, Macroeconomics, Fiscal Policy, and Deficit
Political Geography:: Europe, Global Focus, and Global Markets

4686. Change in Economic Policy Paradigm: Privatization and State Capture in Poland

Author:: Piotr Kozarzewski and Maciej Bałtowski
Publication Date:: 07-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:: Piotr Kozarzewski and Maciej Bałtowski analyse the causes and manifestations of Poland’s recent shift in economic policy towards a more active role of the state, and use privatization policy as an example. The authors examine the effects of the privatization policy and point to a large unfinished agenda in ownership transformation that has had an adverse impact on the institutional setup of the Polish state, creating grounds for rent seeking and cronyism, which, in turn, impede the pace of privatization. They find out that it is the increasing capture of the state by rent-seeking groups, and not, contrary to popular opinion, the global financial crisis, that most contributes to the growing statist trends of Poland’s economic policy. The publication is a part of a CASE Working Papers series.
Topic:: Privatization, Financial Crisis, Reform, State, Economic Policy, Institutions, and Macroeconomics
Political Geography:: Europe and Poland

4687. The Collaborative Economy in Poland and Europe: A Tool for Boosting Female Employment?

Author:: Karolina Beaumont
Publication Date:: 07-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:: The collaborative economy is a relatively new economic approach based on peer-to-peer transactions. It includes the shared creation, production and consumption of goods and services accessible for all through online platforms and smartphone applications. It is a burgeoning business model that is experiencing increased interest in all European countries. Statistics show that Poland already has an above-average number of women who are interested in self-employment. Furthermore, formal female employment in Poland is quite low by European standards. This situation implies great potential for the development of the participation of women in the collaborative economy. The paper “The Collaborative Economy in Poland and Europe: A Tool for Boosting Female Employment?” by Karolina Beaumont discusses the challenges of the collaborative economy as a system stimulating female social and economic empowerment and assesses the opportunities offered by the collaborative economy in increasing the female labour participation rate amongst Polish women.
Topic:: Gender Issues, Labor Issues, Women, Employment, Inequality, Economy, Social Policy, and Labor Policies
Political Geography:: Europe and Poland

4688. On Economic Growth in Europe, or, The Uncertain Growth Prospects of Western Countries

Author:: Aleksander Łaszek, Andrzej Rzońca, and Andrzej Halesiak
Publication Date:: 11-2016
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:: Growth in the European Union since the outbreak of the global financial crisis is slower (1) than before the crisis, (2) than the trend would indicate, (3) than forecast and (4) than in the United States. The factors driving its weakness lie more on the supply side than the demand side. The loss of potential output after the crisis was exacerbated by inequalities from before the crisis; fiscal stimulus from 2007-2009, increasing public expenditure despite the lack of fiscal space; excessive liquidity support for banks; and inflexibility of the market for goods at the moment the crisis broke out. The problems with growth may deepen and become permanent if social support for anti-market parties continues to grow. Extremist parties are supported by divergence among the countries of the “old” EU and the slowdown of convergence in the new member states, as well as tendencies related to inequality, in particular the reduction of households’ mobility between income groups. The 144th mBank - CASE Seminar Proceedings consist of the main paper "On Economic Growth in Europe, or, The Uncertain Growth Prospects of Western Countries" by Andrzej Rzońca and Aleksander Łaszek and the commentary "Economic Growth in Western Europe: The Investment Perspective" by Andrzej Halesiak.
Topic:: Economic Growth, Investment, Economic Policy, Macroeconomics, and Trade
Political Geography:: Europe, Western Europe, and European Union

4689. Economic policy and macroeconomic developments in Hungary, 2010-2015

Author:: Gábor Oblath
Publication Date:: 09-2016
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:: The publication "Economic policy and macroeconomic developments in Hungary, 2010–2015" discusses the factors responsible for Hungary’s growth performance. In the 143rd mBank - CASE Seminar Proceedings Gábor Oblath argues that that the factors essentially responsible for Hungary’s growth performance over the last five or six years were mainly exogenous to Hungarian government policy. The acceleration of economic growth observed in 2014 was due to, in particular, exceptionally large transfers from EU funds, which have nothing to do with the government’s so called “unorthodox” economic policy. By contrast, the decline in the quality of the institutional environment of the economy is a direct consequence of both the spirit and the methods of the economic policy pursued.
Topic:: Government, Economic Growth, Economic Policy, and Macroeconomics
Political Geography:: Europe, Hungary, and European Union

4690. VAT non-compliance in Poland under scrutiny

Author:: Grzegorz Poniatowski, Jarek Neneman, and Tomasz Michalik
Publication Date:: 07-2016
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:: Since 2009, despite constant growth in the tax base and only slight variations in effective rates, the trend in VAT revenue in Poland has been reversed, and inflows have become less stable. The ongoing decline in VAT collection and the increase in the uncertainty related to the main component of budget revenues is a very important problem, which in the light of growing budget spending may threaten the stability of public finances. In the new mBank - CASE Seminar Proceedings three experts: Grzegorz Poniatowski, dr. Jarosław Neneman and Tomasz Michalik examine the structure and the causes of the VAT gap as well as the legal context and possible methods of improving VAT compliance at national and European level.
Topic:: Budget, Economic Growth, Tax Systems, Fiscal Policy, and VAT
Political Geography:: Europe, Poland, and European Union

4691. The condition of and prospects for the private equity funds market in Poland

Author:: Barbara Nowakowska, Piotr Noceń, Michał Surowski, and Michał Popiołek
Publication Date:: 02-2016
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:: In the publication, Barabara Nowakowska and Piotr Noceń discuss 'Poland’s Private Equity Market: Current Conditions and Development Prospects', and Michał Surowski and Michał Popiołek describe 'Private Equity From a Bank’s Perspective'.
Topic:: Development, Markets, Financial Markets, Economic Growth, Banks, Innovation, and Trade
Political Geography:: Europe, Poland, and European Union

4692. Quo vadis, Ukraine? Is there a chance for success?

Author:: Ivan Mikloš
Publication Date:: 01-2016
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:: "If I were to say just one thing about Ukraine, I think I would have to stress it is the most underperforming country of all the countries I know. Ukraine has had, and indeed still does have, a lot of potential. In the beginning of 1990s, in 1992 to be precise, Deutsche Bank prepared an analysis of the chances for the former Soviet Union states to be reformed and developed successfully, and according to this analysis, Ukraine had the best chance among them all to be successful. We know that in reality the opposite happened, and Ukraine is in a very difficult situation now. The main reason for this situation is that when at the beginning of 1990s communist countries collapsed, the old system in Ukraine was not replaced by a new one, one of functioning market economy. It was eroded, but not exactly replaced the way it happened for example in Poland, Czechoslovakia, Hungary, and the Baltic states. The country was captured by oligarchs, and a very strange, dysfunctional, and corrupted system was created instead."
Topic:: Development, Economies, Finance, Economic Growth, Trade, and Post-Socialist Economies
Political Geography:: Europe, Central Asia, Ukraine, Caucasus, Eastern Europe, and Poland

4693. Russia’s Asia Pivot: Engaging the Russian Far East, China and Southeast Asia

Author:: Bhavna Dave
Publication Date:: 05-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:: The Russia-ASEAN summit being held in Sochi on 19-20 May 2016 to mark twenty years of Russia’s dialogue partnership with ASEAN is a further indicator of President Vladimir Putin’s ‘pivot to Asia’ policy, triggered also by its current confrontation with the west. Through this pivot, Moscow wants to assert Russia’s geopolitical status as a Euro-Pacific as well as Asia- Pacific power. It is a pragmatic response to the shifting of global power to Asia. It also builds on the growing Russo-Chinese relations to develop the Russian Far East, a resource-rich but underdeveloped region into the gateway for expansion of Russia into the Asia Pacific. At the same time, the growing asymmetry in achieving the economic and strategic goals of Russia and China has resulted in fears that the Russian Far East will turn into a raw materials appendage of China. Moscow lacks the financial resources to support Putin’s Asia pivot. Therefore, Russia needs to strengthen ties with other Asia-Pacific countries and ASEAN as a regional grouping so as to attract more diversified trade and investments into its Far East region. It is in this context that the Sochi summit takes on added significance. However, given Russia’s sporadic interest in Southeast Asia and its strategic role defined mainly by the limited potential of Russian energy and arms exports to ASEAN Member States, the PR diplomacy and summitry at Sochi may not deliver substantive outcomes for Russia. Nonetheless, Moscow aims to enhance its status in the east and seek business and strategic opportunities through the summit thereby compensating to some extent Russia’s loss following the sanctions imposed by the west over the annexation of Crimea.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Military Strategy, and Infrastructure
Political Geography:: Russia, United States, China, Europe, and Asia

4694. Economic and Strategic Dimensions of Mega-FTAs: A Perception Survey of Asian Opinion Leaders

Author:: Xianbai Ji, Pradumna B. Rana, Wai-Mun Chia, and Changtai Li
Publication Date:: 12-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:: The advent of mega-free trade agreements (mega-FTAs) including the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) is a defining feature of global trade governance in the 21st century. What are the costs and benefits of mega- FTAs? What is the political and strategic calculus behind mega-FTAs? Is there a “domino effect” triggering off the mega-FTA troika in a chain of reactions? Does mega-regionalism reinforce or undermine multilateralism? Since commonly used econometrics models cannot shed light on non-economic issues, this paper examines mega-regionalism by conducting a perception survey. This survey received responses from 648 opinion leaders located in 31 Asian countries. Respondents felt that mega-FTAs are good trade policy instruments that are “building blocks” to multilateralism. Linked by a “domino effect”, the mega-FTAs have important political and strategic dimensions. The United States wants to socialise China by writing high- standard “rules of the road” through the TPP. China then pivoted to RCEP to counter the TPP. Brussels through TTIP wanted to join the mega-FTA bandwagon to stay relevant. Additionally, remaining questions on decentralising global economic architecture highlight the need for regional and global institutions to complement each other.
Topic:: European Union, Multilateralism, Trans-Pacific Partnership, Free Trade, and Decentralization
Political Geography:: United States, China, Europe, Asia, and Global Focus

4695. The French Counter-radicalisation Strategy

Author:: Romain Quivooij
Publication Date:: 12-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:: Since April 2014, France has been developing a three-stage counter-radicalisation model, covering the areas of detection, prevention and de-radicalisation. Little has been said in the English literature on the organisation, the effectiveness and the challenges of this approach. France’s centralised tradition led to the implementation of a vertical structure of action dominated by the Interior Ministry. A major difficulty faced by the French authorities is to manage various “profiles” of at-risk individuals, including converts, underage individuals and young women. This illustrates a significant diversification of the groups of population affected by Salafi-Jihadist radicalisation. The French counter-radicalisation strategy is expected to lead the fight against violent extremism, but it remains hampered by divisions over the role of Islam. This bone of contention, which is indicative of the French state and society’s complex relationship with religion, substantially affects the consistency of deradicalisation programmes.
Topic:: Religion, Violent Extremism, Counter-terrorism, and Radicalization
Political Geography:: Europe, Paris, France, and Western Europe

4696. Command Decision: Leadership Lessons from the Strategic Air War Against Germany

Author:: Lee Lacy
Publication Date:: 04-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Military and Strategic Studies
Institution:: Centre for Military, Security and Strategic Studies
Abstract:: The history of strategic bombing in World War II is well-documented, but is also found in the unlikeliest of places, in a theatrical production performed in the New York theater—on Broadway— in 1947. The play, Command Decision, by William Wister Haines, is an examination of the decision making process involved with the strategic bombing campaign in the European Theater of Operations. This paper uses Command Decision to examine real events in 1943—notably the raids on industrial targets of Regensburg, Schweinfurt and Stuttgart, where the 8th USAAF sustained punishing losses. Out this terrible episode of the war, when thousands of airmen lost their lives, the lessons of the bombing campaign’s Combined Bomber Offensive are significant. The leaders, events and decisions that influenced this intense and deadly episode of World War II remain relevant. The powerful lessons of leadership and command— mixed with human failing and the suffering of mankind, make a compelling story.
Topic:: Military Strategy, World War II, and Air Force
Political Geography:: United States, Europe, and North America

4697. The European Union-Greenland relations after 2015 – a partnership beyond fisheries

Author:: Piotr Kobza
Publication Date:: 04-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Military and Strategic Studies
Institution:: Centre for Military, Security and Strategic Studies
Abstract:: he introduction of a new, enhanced autonomy status for Greenland within the Danish Realm since 21 June 2009, after the referendum of 25 November 2008, brought about a new chapter in the history of the emancipation of Greenland from Copenhagen. In comparison with the previous status, in force since 1979, competences of the home-rule government in Nuuk were broadened, especially in the domains of jurisprudence, public order and management of the natural reserves. It was recognized that the Greenlandic nation was a subject of the international law with an inherent right to declare independence, which in turn should be respected by Denmark. The financial subsidies from Denmark were to be reduced, and economic dependence of Greenland on the Danish budget – diminished. All these introduced new possibilities for the Greenlanders to shape political and economic development of their island. The purpose of this text is to set out the reasons, ways and methods of the process of deepening relations between the European Union and Greenland, seen against the background of interests and activities of other international actors.
Topic:: Regional Cooperation, European Union, and Economic Cooperation
Political Geography:: Europe and Greenland

4698. Beyond the Central Eurasian Pivot?

Author:: Michael Tierney
Publication Date:: 08-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Military and Strategic Studies
Institution:: Centre for Military, Security and Strategic Studies
Abstract:: Central Eurasia has long been an area that occupies utmost geostrategic importance inthe international system. Scholars throughout the 20th century identified Central Eurasia as the singlemost pivotal area for powerful states to gain influence and control. Their theories were based upon the fact that the region contained vast natural resources, a large population, high economic potential, and was geographically situated in a location strategically important for all world powers. As aresult, Central Eurasia’s importance in international affairs influenced geostrategic thinking during the inter-war years into WWII, the Cold War, and the post-Cold War era. Yet the shift in power that has occurred globally in recent years has caused scholars to signal the emergence of a new multipolar world. Some scholars have additionally hypothesized that there will be new geostrategic pivot states and regions located outside of Central Eurasia as a result. This study uses both historical and contemporary literature from the field of geopolitics to construct a list of potential pivots in the current international system. It then compares potential new pivot areas to the traditional Central Eurasian region using the variables listed above. The study finds that there are in fact comparable geostrategic pivots located outside of the Central Eurasian region in the contemporary international system. The implications of these findings are then discussed in the context of geostrategy and international security.
Topic:: Cold War, International Affairs, Natural Resources, Geopolitics, and World War II
Political Geography:: Europe, Eurasia, Asia, and Central Eurasia

4699. Networked security between “restraint” and “responsibility”? Germany’s security policy towards Africa

Author:: Ulf Engel
Publication Date:: 10-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal of Military and Strategic Studies
Institution:: Centre for Military, Security and Strategic Studies
Abstract:: Ulf Engel assesses the recent evolution of German security policy towards and engagement in Africa which should serve as a useful comparative model for Canada. Notably, in 2014 the German government adopted a comprehensive and networked approach through its Africa Policy Guidelines which is something completely lacking in Canada.
Topic:: Security, International Cooperation, and Foreign Aid
Political Geography:: Africa, Europe, Canada, Germany, and North America

4700. Selected Essays on the Transition to a New Nuclear Order

Author:: Judith Reppy and Catherine M. Kelleher
Publication Date:: 07-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Judith Reppy Institute for Peace and Conflict Studies
Abstract:: What conditions are needed for a stable transition to a new nuclear order, one in which the total number of nuclear weapons would be reduced to very low numbers, perhaps even zero? We have addressed the myriad issues raised by this question with funding from a grant on “Creating Conditions for a Stable Transition to a New Nuclear Order,” co-directed by Catherine Kelleher and Judith Reppy, from the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation to the Judith Reppy Institute for Peace and Conflict Studies at Cornell University. The essays collected here are a sample of the work supported by the grant. The goals of our project are three-fold: to take a fresh look at the theoretical underpinnings of the arguments about strategic security and nuclear doctrines; to encourage members of the younger generation (NextGen) scholars working on nuclear security issues to see themselves as part of a network that stretches from scholars in the field to active participants in the policy process; and to disseminate the products of the project to the policy community, in Washington and elsewhere. We have convened four workshops—in Berlin (December 2014); Ithaca, NY (November 2015); Monterey, CA (February 2016); and Washington, DC (May 2016)—and held several discussion dinners in Washington, DC. We received very welcome assistance in organizing these events from the German Marshall Fund, which hosted our Berlin workshop, and Bill Potter and Jeffrey Lewis at the Middlebury Institute for International Studies in Monterey. Elaine Scott and Sandra Kisner at Cornell provided invaluable support throughout, as did Ari Kattan, Jessica Gottesman, and Debak Das.A number of themes have emerged from these meetings, which we outline below. First, however, it is worth discussing the broader context in which the project has unfolded. In a very real sense, the seeds of our project were sown by the “Gang of Four” op-ed in the Wall Street Journal in January 2007 calling for worldwide nuclear disarmament. This call, coming from four highly respected individuals in the policy world, re-invigorated the debate over the usefulness and dangers of nuclear weapons around the world, and spurred a number of similar calls from diplomats and politicians in other countries. In April 2009, President Obama gave an important speech in Prague, in which he stated that the United States was committed “to seek the peace and security of a world without nuclear weapons.”2 The shift in the political discussion encouraged scholars to return to the topics of strategic security and nuclear deterrence, topics that had fallen into neglect following the end of the Cold War. One such effort was a series of meetings organized by Catherine Kelleher under a grant from the Carnegie Corporation, which resulted in our co-edited book, Getting to Zero. In that volume the question of what a transition to nuclear zero would look like was broached, but not analyzed in detail. The current project is intended as a step toward filling that gap. The dangers that nuclear weapons pose—from accidents, miscalculation in times of crisis, or their acquisition by non-state actors—have persuaded many people that a nuclear-weapons free world is desirable. The optimism that nuclear disarmament might be feasible was based in large part on the success of European countries following World War II in building a zone of peace across the European continent, historically the site of so many bloody wars, and on the peaceful dissolution of the Soviet Union. The Russian annexation of Crimea in spring 2014, however, ushered in a period of conflict in Ukraine and threw the validity of the European model into question. In Asia, stability has been threatened by North Korea’s detonation of nuclear devices and a more assertive international policy on the part of China. These shifts in the international situation have made it clear that a new nuclear order will have to be robust enough to weather unexpected political shocks, as well as the challenges arising from technological changes that can undercut strategic balances and other changes that we cannot foresee. As Harald Müller has cogently argued, global nuclear disarmament will not happen in a world that looks like the world of today, minus nuclear weapons. Instead, it will be the result of a step-by-step process of changing ideas, building new modes of cooperation and trust among states, and finding ways to respect regional differences within a global order. The essays in this Occasional Paper offer ideas for this process. We have selected them from the larger number of commissioned papers and commentaries produced by the participants in the project. We have confined our choices to papers by NextGen participants and included examples from each of the four workshops. The issues discussed include new ways to frame deterrence logics, important both for understanding the history of the Cold War and current questions of nuclear learning (Harrington; Akhtar). Security perspectives both within and between regions are analyzed (Zhao; Martin), and the importance of cooperative approaches to security addressed (Kühn; Gheorghe).
Topic:: National Security, Nuclear Power, Denuclearization, and Transition
Political Geography:: Russia, United States, China, Europe, Asia, and North America

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COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS