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35381. Power Imbalance: Iran’s Gains, Saudi’s Challenges

Author:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:
01-2015
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
There is no one, sweeping reason for declining oil prices, but Iran and Russia have publicly and explicitly placed the blame on Saudi’s shoulders. The reality is, however, is that the drop in oil prices is just one more point of contention between Iran and Saudi in a line of regional issues that have brought to light the reality of an Iran-Saudi showdown. Iran’s growing regional expansion, the conflict over a Syrian resolution, and the Houthis’ increasing control over Yemen are all more convincing factors which help explain why Saudi is adamantly refusing to reduce its oil production. This position paper analyses Saudi’s challenges as it attempts to counter Iran’s gains in the Arab region, particularly in light of a possible nuclear deal between Iran and the US.
Topic:
International Relations, Oil, Regional Cooperation, and Economy
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Iran, Middle East, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, and Syria

35382. President Hadi's Resignation: Dangers and Alternatives

Author:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:
02-2015
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
With President Abd Rabbuh Mansur Hadi’s resignation, Yemen lost a leader who had the ability to facilitate considerable consensus among diverse political forces involved in fierce conflicts over various issues, including the territorial conflict between north and south; the sectarian conflict between Zaidis and Shafiis; the political conflict between the old guard (represented by deposed president Ali Abdullah Saleh) and the new post-revolution regime headed by Hadi; and the armed conflict between al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) and the Yemeni armed forces. As it stands, it appears that none of these warring forces can single-handedly force their will on the nation. Rather, it is clear they need to somehow work together and attain a degree of regional and international recognition. This also requires that these forces reposition themselves accordingly. This paper addresses the dynamics that drove Yemen to this state of affairs, and discusses probable scenarios for Yemen’s future.
Topic:
Domestic Politics, Conflict, and Political Crisis
Political Geography:
Middle East and Yemen

35383. Sisi’s Harvest: Illusion of Stability, Perpetuation of Unrest

Author:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:
02-2015
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
Events in Egypt last Sunday, the fourth anniversary of the 25 January revolution, had been gestating for almost nineteen months. Popular opposition to the 3 July 2013 regime has continued at varying scales, ranging from massive assemblies at the Rabaa al-Adawiya and al-Nahda squares to small demonstrations all over the country, with larger ones on Fridays. But the fourth anniversary’s events marked a deep change in the popular opposition’s temperament, and the sheer size of the demonstrations was more massive than any of last year’s popular movements. This image presents a stark contrast to the message that the regime has been trying to disseminate regionally and globally, claiming it is finally and successfully in control of the country, and that the sole challenge it has to overcome today is that of the economy. This paper presents an initial reading of the events of that day, and their implications for the futures of both the popular opposition and the regime, ending with a discussion on how regional and global forces view the regime.
Topic:
Authoritarianism, Revolution, Civil Unrest, and Abdel Fattah el-Sisi
Political Geography:
Middle East, North Africa, and Egypt

35384. Libyan Dialogue: Uphill Battle, Limited Chances for Success

Author:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:
02-2015
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
As analysts and observers attempt to parse out the intricacies of the current Libyan conflict, the United Nations is sponsoring a dialogue to bring together the warring parties and attempt to find a political solution. This paper proposes that while there are factors which increase the likelihood of successful dialogue, the reality is that internal disputes within each of the political parties, as well as regional and international attention to other, more pressing matters, mean that the dialogue is actually an uphill battle.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, United Nations, Conflict, Negotiation, Political Parties, and Dialogue
Political Geography:
Libya and North Africa

35385. Daesh Trumps Assad Amid Shifting International Priorities in Syria

Author:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:
02-2015
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
As the Syrian crisis enters its fifth year, regional and international priorities in Syria have changed as a result of Daesh or the so-called Islamic State (IS) group’s expansion. Attempts to repackage the conflict and transform its essence into “fighting terrorism” have increased. In this context, initiatives have been launched to revamp the Syrian regime’s image on the grounds that the conditions that led to the first Geneva Communique no longer exist.(1) However, the prospect that Assad’s regime can be rehabilitated to make it acceptable domestically, regionally or internationally are at best a delusion. The regime’s repressive policies during the years that followed the revolution’s outbreak has made it a polarising rather than a unifying actor, one that has broken all possible lines of political capital and made its institutions even more sectarian during the crisis. In addition, armed groups representing divergent trends have emerged, and they will necessarily play a major role in any future arrangement, one that will not present itself unless power is redistributed in a way that changes the existing system’s structure.
Topic:
Non State Actors, Violent Extremism, Islamic State, Syrian War, and Bashar al-Assad
Political Geography:
Middle East and Syria

35386. Risks of Egypt’s Military Intervention in Libya

Author:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:
02-2015
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
An armed group calling itself the Tripoli Province of the Islamic State executed twenty-one Egyptian Copts in the Libyan city of Sirte last week, sparking a global wave of anger. This provoked the Egyptian government to launch hasty air raids; however, these raids surprisingly did not target Sirte, where the executions took place, but rather the city of Darna, killing and wounding civilians. This paper argues that the Egyptian government’s strikes were retaliatory and misguided by any standards. Not only did the air strikes clearly hit civilian targets, but the extent of damage, if any, inflicted on rebels belonging to the Darna Mujahideen Shura Council is still unclear. Also unclear are the whereabouts of the rebels and their camps, raising speculations about whether the air raids were just a prelude to wider Egyptian intervention, as well as the nature and extent of any such intervention.
Topic:
Government, Violent Extremism, Islamic State, and Military Intervention
Political Geography:
Middle East, Libya, North Africa, and Egypt

35387. Implications of Operation Decisive Storm

Author:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:
03-2015
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
Saudi Arabia, along with nine of its allies, has launched an offensive on the Houthi groups in Yemen. This offensive will have implications on not only Saudi Arabia and its immediate neighbours, but also on other international actors, including Iran and western countries such as the United States. This paper addresses the repercussions of this operation in light of growing Iranian expansion in the Arab world.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Military Intervention, and Houthis
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, and United States of America

35388. King Salman’s Priorities: Revamping Alliances to Stop Iranian expansion

Author:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:
03-2015
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
Immediately after Saudi Arabia’s King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz passed, his successor, King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud, made successive major decisions affecting key positions in the structure of the political system. It appeared that Salman was restructuring the government entirely. Naturally, numerous questions have been raised about whether the major changes in the structure of rule and government will be associated with parallel changes in Saudi foreign policy. If there has been a serious incident that set off warning bells in Saudi Arabia over the past few months, it has undoubtedly been the events in Yemen, where the Houthis have seized control of most of the north and thus opened the country’s doors to Iranian influence. The Saudis’ response, Operation Decisive Storm, are further evidence of Saudi’s changing priorities, but it is too early to make extreme predictions on the impact of these changes on specific regional issues and policies.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Government, Alliance, and Regional Power
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, and Saudi Arabia

35389. Operation Decisive Storm: Reshuffling Regional Order

Author:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:
04-2015
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
Operation Decisive Storm is being interpreted as a first step towards curbing Iranian expansion in the Arab world rather than a step towards protecting Yemen and its legitimacy. Pakistan and Turkey’s support for this operation is significant in light of the US’ visible withdrawal from the region. With the operation still in its early days, it has become imperative to re-examine its goals, their feasibility, and implications of the attacks.
Topic:
Military Affairs, Military Intervention, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Turkey, Middle East, Yemen, and United States of America

35390. Turkish Parliamentary Elections: Risks and Predictions

Author:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:
06-2015
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
Turkey’s president and prime minister have not hidden the Justice and Development Party’s (AKP) intention to write a new constitution which converts the system of governance from parliamentary to presidential. In some ways, the 7 June 2015 Turkish parliamentary elections, the fourth parliamentary elections the AKP will contest, will decide the future of the country’s constitution and its system of governance. The most difficult factor to predict in this election has been the Kurdish vote, because the pro-Kurdish People’s Democratic Party (HDP) ran candidates as independents in the last parliamentary elections and received six per cent of the vote share. This time, the party has decided to run under its party banner, which will surely increase their vote share. The only question is how much.
Topic:
Elections, Domestic Politics, Political Parties, and Parliamentarism
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East