- CIAO Search Results

Author:: Poorti Sapatnekar
Publication Date:: 06-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for International and Security Studies at Maryland (CISSM)
Abstract:: Multi-stakeholder partnerships among states and non-state actors have become increasingly prevalent models for the delivery of global public goods. Various international organizations—particularly the United Nations entities—are pouring resources into large-scale efforts such as conferences and summits to promote partnerships. Are such efforts effective? If so, what is the causal mechanism at work? Analyzing all major UN conferences and summits on climate change in the 2000-2015 period, this study finds that contrary to conventional wisdom, only two were successful in driving the growth of climate partnerships. Six organizational attributes acted as conditions of success for these efforts, enabling a mechanism this study labels the collective choreography of cooperation. They are: (1) strategic timing; (2) leaders’ level convening; (3) emphasis on ambitious, cooperative commitments; (4) sectoral orientation; (5) subsidiarity; and (6) leadership with centralized decision-making. Effective collective choreography requires high level convening power and autonomy of the summit host. Among international organizations, only the UN Secretary-General has both these two attributes. Gaining sufficient autonomy on climate change without alienating key member states took decades, during which successive Secretaries-General engaged in ‘conference activism’ and expanded the range and breadth of their good offices to help overcome intergovernmental gridlock and steer towards constructive outcomes. Achieving the Paris Agreement goals is a global policy priority that requires exponential acceleration of climate partnerships across economic sectors during the first half of this century. A five-year choreography cycle led by the Secretary-General over the next thirty years, and coinciding with the Global Stocktake of the Paris Agreement, could serve to achieve this policy priority. Four features of the climate problem have made it conducive to collective choreography that are more or less characteristic of many other global governance challenges. (1) There is dispersed control over causes of the problem and over possible solutions. (2) Economic and social benefits to non-state actors for engaging in voluntary cooperation on climate change exist or can be made to exist. (3) Barriers to cooperation exist in the form of high transaction costs, risks, and limited trust. (4) The problem is mature enough that multilateral solutions had already been attempted, without success thus far. As such, this paper provides a basis for further investigation into the potential to apply collective choreography to other global public goods.
Topic:: Climate Change, International Cooperation, United Nations, Multilateralism, and Paris Agreement
Political Geography:: Global Focus

10711. The Institutional Context of Humanitarian Helping in Contemporary Italy

Author:: Adriano Profeta, Lisa Ann Richey, and Maha Rafi Atal
Publication Date:: 05-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for Business and Development Studies (CBDS), Copenhagen Business School
Abstract:: Italy was itself a recipient of foreign aid and has now become a donor engaged in multiple forms of humanitarian helping abroad and at home. The institutional context of humanitarian helping in Italy is constituted by a moving constellation of relationships between the state, the church, and the nonprofit sector. As we see the changing institutional context for Italian nonprofits with decreasing public solidarity, negative discursive framing, and the need to diversify fund-raising channels, Italian businesses are being sought out for partnerships between profit and nonprofit actors (De Marchi and Martinez 2020). As in other donor countries, there has been a weakening of public trust in the traditional aid sector of Italian nonprofits combined with recently decreasing national funding for humanitarian helping abroad. These trends have led to an increasing need for nonprofits to pivot their fund-raising campaigns toward individuals and social networks such as Facebook (De Carli, 2019c). Today, the interface for “helping” brings together government legislation, state bodies, for-profit organizations, nonprofit organizations, the church, and individuals. To begin to understand the interface of humanitarian helping and the trends in Italy today, this working paper documents and explains the history of Italian cooperation for development and humanitarian helping. The next section will explore changes in perceptions of non-state helping and doing good. The third section will turn to government-based helping in contemporary Italy to understand the formal structures shaping humanitarianism and international development. The fourth section examines the institutional organization of the contemporary development cooperation system that links actors in helping interventions. Within this, we examine the public funding trends for development helping. Section five then examines the private funding available. Finally we conclude with some reflections on what this institutional context suggests for the mix of public and private helping abroad.
Topic:: Development, Humanitarian Aid, Foreign Aid, Public Sector, Private Sector, Non-profits, and Public-Private Partnership
Political Geography:: Europe and Italy

10712. Voices from the Coca Fields: Women Building Rural Communities

Author:: Ana Jimena Bautista-Revelo, Blanca Capacho-Niño, Luis Felipe Cruz-Olivera, Margarita Martínez-Osorio, Isabel Pereira-Arana, and Lucía Ramírez-Bolívar
Publication Date:: 02-2021
Content Type:: Book
Institution:: Dejusticia
Abstract:: In Colombia, the prohibition on drugs—better known as the “war on drugs”—has been a breeding ground for armed conflict, poverty, marginalization, and stigmatization. Coca, a sacred plant for some people and a loathsome one for others, a source of life or of death, is at the center of the debate over state building and peacebuilding in the country. According to the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC), Colombia currently has 146,000 hectares of coca;1 following the peace accord signed in 2016 between the national government and the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), the country is facing enormous pressure to reduce this number to secure peace in rural areas and to increase the state’s presence in historically neglected regions. But behind every number—behind each hectare of coca cultivation and every conflict—there are people trying to survive in the face of hostile conditions and a weak state presence; what the numbers of hectares of coca crops do not show us is the extent of poverty, exclusion, and resistance experienced by those who are involved in various aspects of the coca economy in order to scrape by and overcome everyday conditions of violence and oppression. This book explores the experience of the human faces behind these numbers—the lives of the people from a specific region in Colombia who grow coca as a means of survival within the context of precarious living conditions and constant disputes between armed actors. We selected the Andes-Amazon region of Colombia—particularly the department of Putumayo—as the focus of our study, for it is a region where violence, colonization, poverty, and state building converge around coca cultivation and pose particular challenges to the implementation of crop substitution programs as proposed in point four of the final peace accord signed between the Colombian government and the FARC. In addition to this particular region of study, we focus specifically on the experience of women coca growers. Those who grow coca in the southern part of the country share experiences of poverty, stigmatization, criminalization, and a historical state focus on militarization and resource extraction as opposed to human rights and well-being. And within this fragile panorama, the lives and bodies of women coca growers are marked by unique experiences of violence, oppression, and resistance, stemming from their being rural women in a stigmatized, militarized, and profoundly patriarchal region. The perspective of women coca growers from the Andes-Amazon region thus allows us to understand how the war on drugs has shaped particular life experiences and has resulted in specific gender-based impacts. Identifying these differentiated impacts not only helps fill existing gaps in the literature but also sheds light on the challenges facing the implementation of a gender approach as outlined in point four of the peace accord and, on this basis, propose concrete recommendations for ensuring the application of such an approach in crop substitution efforts. With this in mind, this book’s focus on the socioeconomic situation of women coca growers in the Andes-Amazon region rests on the idea that the country’s drug policy should replace its almost exclusive emphasis on the elimination of illicit crops with one that considers the differentiated impacts of the drug economy and the ways in which these impacts deepen inequality in different settings. Indeed, within the framework of the global prohibition on drugs, which stems from United Nations conventions, Colombia’s strategies to reduce the size of the drug trade have focused almost entirely on repressing coca cultivation—that is, reducing the amount of coca leaf that is harvested. Nonetheless, no solutions have been offered to address the persistent conditions of poverty in rural Colombia that have a differentiated impact on rural women.2 The policies of the war on drugs have placed an excessive emphasis on the plant’s elimination, which has meant that campesinos who derive their livelihood from coca cultivation have had to deal with a military state focused on eradicating, fumigating, and criminalizing, as opposed to a state based on the social rule of law that offers alternatives for overcoming the high rates of rural poverty. Voices from the Coca Fields sheds light on the living conditions of women coca growers with the aim of providing recommendations, mainly in the context of the implementation of the peace accord, that offer ways to effectively incorporate a rights-based perspective into the crop substitution programs and alternative development plans that are currently being carried out throughout the country. In particular, we believe that such a perspective should incorporate a gender focus as one of its key pillars, for the construction of stable and lasting peace is achieved only by addressing the state’s historical debt with women. Peace requires women—it requires their voices and experiences—and thus it is critical to listen to and take seriously their claims and demands.
Topic:: Agriculture, War on Drugs, Women, Rural, Land, Armed Conflict, Gender, and Coca
Political Geography:: Colombia and South America

10713. Civil Resistance Against 21st Century Authoritarianism: Defending Human Rights in the Global South

Author:: César Rodríguez-Garavito, Ezequiel A. Monsalve F., Ektaa Deochand, Slavenska Zec, and Kerem Çiftçioğlu
Publication Date:: 04-2021
Content Type:: Book
Institution:: Dejusticia
Abstract:: This book — and Dejusticia’s initiative that originated it — seeks to promote answers to populist challenges to human rights. To do so, they propose a new thrust characterized by three features: reflective writing, narrative writing, and voices from the Global South. First, this book contains reflective writing. Its authors are activists who work directly within organizations in the field, who stop to think about the potential, the achievements, and the challenges of their knowledge and practice. In this sense, the book seeks to amplify the voices of human rights defenders in discussions about the future of the field, which tend to be dominated by research from academia. The texts combine the methodological and analytical strengths of academic research with the practical experience of the authors, organizations, and communities with which they work. The objective is to promote a hybrid genre that contributes to maintaining and widening the window of reflection and discussion in the field of human rights. Second, the genre proposed in this book, and in the series of which it is part, is narrative writing. In part because of the prevalence of legal language and knowledge of the world of human rights, the predominant writing in their field is that of technical reports and legal pleadings. While these genres have made notable achievements over the decades, this focus has prevented organizations and activists from effectively sharing their stories and experiences firsthand: those of the victims, the campaigns, the moral dilemmas, the injustices, the victories, and more. Opening the field of human rights to other actors, other knowledge, and other audiences means telling these stories and telling them well. To this end, the authors of these chapters are involved in the stories, relating them using techniques taken from fields such as narrative journalism. Third, the stories come from the Global South, from countries and regions that have more often been the object of study rather than the subject of knowledge, making their own decisions in the field of human rights. In this sense, these chapters attempt to respond to the challenges of a more multipolar world, to counter the organizational, economic, and epistemological asymmetries between South and North that have undermined the effectiveness and legitimacy of the global human rights movement. The authors of these studies are activists, researchers, and members of human rights organizations writing from this geographical and professional perspective to enrich the global debate on the future of the field.
Topic:: Civil Society, Human Rights, Food, Authoritarianism, Populism, Political Prisoners, and Healthcare System
Political Geography:: Turkey, India, Brazil, South America, Venezuela, Mexico, Chile, and Global South

10714. Nordic cooperation amid pandemic travel restrictions

Author:: Katja Creutz, Sofie Berglund, Telli Betül Karacan, Alberto Giacometti, and Kristin M. Haugevik
Publication Date:: 11-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: Since 2020, the Nordic countries have been confronted with the Covid-19 pandemic, which has been a multi-level stress test for the region. The strong basis of open borders and free movement in Nordic cooperation has been questioned by national pandemic measures, including wide travel restrictions. The Nordic dimension to pandemic responses has largely been missing, the trust between the countries has arguably been put to test and cross-border commuters have been subjected to differential treatment. Especially cross-border regions have suffered the consequences of travel restrictions, causing disruptions to work and private life. The report draws attention to the preparedness of the Nordic Region to jointly confront global crises. It explores the different strategies and travel restrictions adopted by four Nordic countries: Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden. It also studies how Nordic cooperation functioned in a time of crisis. At the local level, it examines the economic, labour market and social implications for three cross-border regions, that is, Tornedalen, Svinesund and Öresund. The report finds that while there is room for improvement in handling a crisis like the pandemic, there are diverging views on the desirability to have all-Nordic approaches to situations affecting national security. The consequences are, however, serious for free movement and the aim to become the most integrated region in the world.
Topic:: Crisis Management, Public Health, COVID-19, and Cooperation
Political Geography:: Finland, Norway, Denmark, and Sweden

10715. The Faroe Islands, Greenland and the Åland Islands in Nordic cooperation

Author:: Katja Creutz and Sia Spiliopoulou Åkermark
Publication Date:: 12-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: Nordic political cooperation, embodied by the Nordic Council and the Nordic Council of Ministers, encompasses the five Nordic countries and the Faroe Islands, Greenland and Åland. This long-standing regional cooperation functions as a model of inclusiveness and democratic sustainability as it strengthens the cooperation networks between all the jurisdictions with legislative competences and enables the participation of the three islands that do not enjoy formal statehood. The Faroe Islands, Greenland and Åland have for decades participated in the Nordic institutions, and their contribution to Nordic cooperation extends beyond niceties. The participation of the Faroe Islands, Greenland and Åland in Nordic cooperation increases knowledge about different governance arrangements, peoples and rights. In addition, their substantive knowledge and expertise have played a decisive role in areas such as Arctic affairs and sustainability, with the protection of the environment high up on their agendas. Their participation is an incremental process, however, where the status of the Faroe Islands, Greenland and Åland in Nordic cooperation is entangled with national and international political and legal considerations. While all three seek parity, the Faroe Islands have appeared as the driving force for further integration into Nordic cooperation.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, International Cooperation, and Sustainability
Political Geography:: Finland, Sweden, Greenland, and Arctic

10716. Houthi Forces Close in on Marib City – The Yemen Review, October 2021

Author:: Sana'a Center for Strategic Studies
Publication Date:: 11-2021
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Sana'a Center For Strategic Studies
Abstract:: Many of the challenges facing humanitarian operations in conflict zones today are well known. Any package of assistance must survive the politics of individual donor countries before it even starts the journey down the pipeline to the United Nations and other aid agencies. From there, it navigates a maze of bureaucracy between headquarters and destination countries, often running the gauntlet between warring parties and local realities before hopefully making its way to people in need. Humanitarian operations, wherever in the world they occur, are almost certainly flawed. The politicized and financially constrained structures that international aid must traverse mean no single agency bears responsibility. While many individuals working within the humanitarian community certainly do their best to make the system work better where they can, it remains reasonable to expect that humanitarian aid does more good than harm. At a bare minimum, humanitarian aid should reduce the suffering of the most vulnerable. Whether that is the case in Yemen today is, at best, unclear. Last week, the Sana’a Center published a six-part report series examining UN-led humanitarian operations in Yemen since 2015, when the war escalated and the humanitarian emergency response began. While the UN regularly claims that Yemen is the world’s worst humanitarian crisis, the findings of the research would suggest that instead Yemen hosts among the world’s worst humanitarian responses. The fault lies first and foremost with the aid system and its leadership, both within and outside of Yemen. This stands in stark contrast to the tendency of senior leaders in the humanitarian effort to blame the failures of the response exclusively on the warring parties. Houthi Forces Close in on Marib City – The Yemen Review, October 2021 - Sana'a Center For Strategic Studies https://sanaacenter.org/publications/the-yemen-review/15660
Topic:: Houthis, Humanitarian Crisis, Armed Conflict, and Humanitarian Response
Political Geography:: Yemen and Gulf Nations

10717. Coalition Falls Back in Hudaydah, Fighting Shifts South – The Yemen Review, November 2021

Author:: Sana'a Center for Strategic Studies
Publication Date:: 12-2021
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Sana'a Center For Strategic Studies
Abstract:: A surprise decision by the UAE-backed Joint Forces to withdraw from areas south of Hudaydah city and the surrounding governorate shook up the military situation on Yemen’s Red Sea coast.[1] The largest members of the Joint Forces are the Giants Brigade, Tariq Saleh’s National Resistance Forces and the Tihama Resistance. The withdrawal, which began on November 9, saw the Joint Forces move out 15,000 fighters and abandon frontlines in Hudaydah city, home to Yemen’s busiest port, as well as in Al-Durayhimi and Bayt al-Faqih districts, and from the majority of Al-Tuhayta district. The frontlines had been active but largely static since the December 2018 UN-sponsored Stockholm Agreement, which ended a Saudi-led coalition push to take Hudaydah city. The UN and the Yemeni government said they had no advance notice of the withdrawal,[2] and it appeared as though the Joint Forces’ own units were confused about how it would be carried out. The process was disorganized, with units disputing the order of withdrawal with one another. Houthi forces took advantage of this, shelling Joint Forces positions and causing dozens of casualties, according to local military sources. Hundreds of Joint Forces fighters were captured by Houthi forces. The Joint Forces withdrew to the south, establishing a new defensive line from the Al-Himah area, in southwestern Al-Tuhayat district, to Hays district, about 40 kilometers to the east. The official explanation from the Joint Forces was that the withdrawal corrected what it called the “mistake” of remaining in defensive positions while frontlines elsewhere in Yemen needed support.[3] In effect, the terms of the Stockholm Agreement prevented the Joint Forces from making any serious attempt to advance in Hudaydah since 2018. Coalition Falls Back in Hudaydah, Fighting Shifts South – The Yemen Review, November 2021 - Sana'a Center For Strategic Studies https://sanaacenter.org/publications/the-yemen-review/15894
Topic:: Development, Politics, Economy, Houthis, and Armed Conflict
Political Geography:: Yemen and Gulf Nations

10718. CO21092 | Vertical Farms: Are They Sustainable?

Author:: Paul Teng and Steve Kim
Publication Date:: 06-2021
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:: Vertical farming seems like the perfect solution to tackle land-scarce Singapore’s unique food security challenges. Given Singapore’s energy mix, however, a more holistic analysis will help measure and manage the performance of vertical farms to support the local agri-food industry’s role in Singapore’s sustainable development agenda.
Topic:: Agriculture, Development, Energy Policy, Sustainability, Farming, and Farmers
Political Geography:: Asia and Singapore

10719. Humanitarian ‘Do No Harm’: Plugging Gaps in Data Governance

Author:: S. Nanthini
Publication Date:: 06-2021
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:: Data analytics have become a central component of humanitarian work. This is used to inform what affected community needs are and where they need them most. For communities who are already vulnerable, if their data is misused or shared with actors who are not bound by humanitarian principles, they can be exposed to additional risks.
Topic:: Governance, Humanitarian Intervention, Humanitarian Crisis, and Data
Political Geography:: Global Focus

10720. The Aquino Legacy: Implications for 2022 Elections

Author:: Mely Caballero-Anthony and Julius Caesar Trajano
Publication Date:: 06-2021
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:: The visible outpouring of public grief and support across the country’s political spectrum shows that the Aquino legacy endures despite the popularity of the firebrand President Duterte. This could have significant impact on the much-awaited campaign season for the 2022 national elections.
Topic:: Governance, Elections, Leadership, and Partisanship
Political Geography:: Asia and Philippines

10721. Climate Change and Food Security – Golden Rice: Triumph for Science

Author:: Paul Teng
Publication Date:: 07-2021
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:: After almost two decades, Golden Rice was approved last week by the Philippines authorities for use as food. This together with the approval of the bioengineered Bt eggplant represents a landmark victory of science over misinformation; it will provide consumers with improved nutrition (Golden Rice) and safer food (Bt eggplant).
Topic:: Agriculture, Food, Food Security, and Nutrition
Political Geography:: Asia and Philippines

10722. A Rights-Based Approach to Governing Online Freelance Labour: Towards Decent Work in Digital Labour Platforms

Author:: Julius Caesar Trajano
Publication Date:: 08-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:: The emergence of cross-border, web-based digital labour platforms has been among the major transformations in the world of work over the past decade. Through these platforms, tasks are performed online and remotely by freelance workers. Digital labour platforms facilitate the real-time hiring of freelance workers for a plethora of tasks, such as IT programming, language teaching, virtual assistance, marketing, graphic designing, project management, and even research and development. The global trend is that jobs are outsourced on these platforms by businesses located in the global North and performed by freelance workers residing in the global South. This NTS Insight offers a preliminary study on the emergence of web-based, cross-border digital labour and its impact on labour rights and social protection, with a special focus on online freelance workers from Southeast Asia. It reviews the efforts of ASEAN and national governments in the region to promote social protection of these workers and address challenges to rights-based governance for digital labour platforms. This Insight offers possible areas for action by Southeast Asian countries to promote rights and social protection for their workers who are engaged in web-based digital freelance labour.
Topic:: Labor Issues, Governance, Digital Economy, and Digitalization
Political Geography:: Global South

10723. The Social and Economic Impacts of COVID-19 Mitigation Measures on Citizens and Permanent Residents During the Circuit Breaker Period in Singapore

Author:: Patrick Daly, Caroline Brassard, Jamie McCaughey, Reuben Ng, Laavanya Kathiravelu, and Benjamin Horton
Publication Date:: 08-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:: The Singapore government instituted a set of ‘Circuit Breaker’ (CB) measures in April 2020 to combat the COVID-19 pandemic. These included restricting international travel, closing non-essential businesses, telecommuting, home-based learning, wearing faces masks in public spaces, temperature screening, rigorous contract tracing, and isolating infected and exposed persons. The COVID-19 CB measures helped the government control COVID-19 transmission in Singapore but disrupted economic and social life. This NTS Insight presents data from a representative survey on the social and economic impacts of Singapore’s COVID-19 mitigation measures during the CB period on Singaporean citizens and permanent residents from 7 May to 16 July 2020. Our results show that the top three cited disruptions caused by the CB were all social in nature. However, just under half of all respondents reported some form of direct economic disruption – while up to 80% of respondents expressed concerns about their longer-term financial situation. Finally, our disaggregated analysis shows that some of the negative impacts of the CB period disproportionately impacted potentially vulnerable segments of the population.
Topic:: Economics, Public Health, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Asia and Singapore

10724. Global Health Security COVID-19 and Its Impacts – Rebuilding Regional Economies: Role of Female Labour

Author:: Tamara Nair and Phidel Marion G. Vineles
Publication Date:: 08-2021
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:: Increasing women’s participation in regional economies will result in ASEAN’s sustainable economic growth, as part of post COVID-19 rebuilding. Hence, greater efforts must be made to advance women’s broader economic participation to achieve dynamic, resilient, and inclusive regional economies.
Topic:: Economics, Gender Issues, Regional Cooperation, Labor Issues, and Regionalism
Political Geography:: Asia and ASEAN

10725. Code Red for Humanity’: What Next for Mankind?

Author:: Margareth Sembiring
Publication Date:: 09-2021
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:: Amidst repeated warnings against the devastating consequences of climate change, a stronger commitment to climate adaptation measures is what is next for mankind.
Topic:: Climate Change, Environment, Green Transition, and Climate Justice
Political Geography:: Global Focus

10726. Framing Climate Change: The Need for a Human Security Perspective

Author:: S. Nanthini and Tamara Nair
Publication Date:: 09-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:: Climate change has now become the defining issue of the time – and one of the biggest threats to humanity. The recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report has proven to be a “reality check”, making it clear that climate change is already affecting the world by laying out its various manifestations including temperature increases, sea level rise and changes in rainfall patterns. With the stress placed on the economic, social and political systems that underpin the international system, it is now becoming increasingly clear that climate change is a development, economic, health, and security risk, – essentially a human and national security risk. The impacts of climate change range from the direct, as seen by the increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather phenomena, to the indirect, such as migration, resource scarcity and conflict – situations in which climate change acts as a ‘threat multiplier’. As such, it is now imperative to take into account the ways in which climate change is discussed, moving the discourse beyond the environmental, scientific and securitisation framings, which have dominated academic and policy discussions, into one that is more humanistic, taking into account the present and emerging vulnerabilities that are being generated through “dynamic social, political, economic, institutional, cultural and technological conditions and their historical legacies”. With the renewed interest in human security as seen in the release of the 2020 Human Development Report and its focus on the Anthropocene, as well as the latest IPCC findings released in August 2021, there is an urgency in focusing on, not only human-induced climate change but also in addressing the impacts of this climate variability on the global populations, especially the millions of vulnerable people that will be directly (and indirectly) affected. This NTS Insight will explore how investigating the impacts of climate change through a human security lens, in addition to the current narratives, might ensure the security and stability of communities in a new climate future.
Topic:: Security, Climate Change, Environment, and Strategic Stability
Political Geography:: Global Focus

10727. Planetary Health and Triple Planetary Crisis: Relevance for Multilateral Cooperation on Biodiversity Protection and Conservation in Southeast Asia

Author:: Margareth Sembiring
Publication Date:: 09-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:: The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has prompted a search of its causes. Among the various theories available, nature decline offers a compelling explanation for the outbreak and the spread of the disease. This coincides with the formulation of the term ‘triple planetary crisis’ which refers to simultaneous issues of pollution, climate change and biodiversity loss confronting the world today. These propositions give biodiversity protection a stronger focus and gain planetary health concept greater traction. In this regard, biodiversity protection and conservation measures at the regional level are particularly important given their transboundary coverage. Despite existing initiatives, they have yet to yield to outcomes sufficient to address triple planetary crisis. The rise of planetary health concept amidst this pandemic time could potentially
Topic:: Climate Change, Environment, Multilateralism, Conservation, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Asia

10728. Community Gardens: Singapore’s “Fourth Food Basket”?

Author:: Jose M. L. Montesclaros and Paul Teng
Publication Date:: 11-2021
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:: Can community gardens be a potential “basket” in Singapore’s food security strategy? As a “Fourth Food Basket” community gardens can complement imports, commercial domestic production, and overseas production, especially through the use of digital technologies.
Topic:: Environment, Science and Technology, Community, and Digital Revolution
Political Geography:: Asia and Singapore

10729. Planetary Health: A More Resilient World Post-COVID-19?

Author:: Margareth Sembiring
Publication Date:: 11-2021
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:: The care of nature offers holistic solutions to a wide range of issues that include climate change and the pandemic. The emerging concept of planetary health has the potential to contribute and, if widely adopted, may lead to a more resilient world post-COVID-19.
Topic:: Public Health, Pandemic, Resilience, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Global Focus

10730. COP26: Sustaining the Global Food System

Author:: Paul Teng
Publication Date:: 11-2021
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:: COP26 has reinforced much of what is already known about the impact of climate change on food production. But few concrete steps are emerging from COP26 that can improve the livelihoods of producers of the bulk of the world’s food.
Topic:: Food, Global Markets, Food Security, and Inequality
Political Geography:: Global Focus

10731. Annex | ALNAP Lessons Paper: Adapting humanitarian action to climate change

Author:: Véronique de Geoffroy, Paul Knox Clarke, François Grunewald, and Mihir Bhatt
Publication Date:: 10-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: ALNAP: Active Learning Network for Accountability and Performance
Abstract:: Humanitarian agencies need to reflect on the past, learn from the present and actively imagine the near and increasingly threatening future. From excessive consumption to the over-exploitation of natural resources, polluting activities to large-scale deforestation, humans have already dramatically changed the Earth’s climate and environment. As a result, we are experiencing more frequent and more intense weather events, the humanitarian consequences of which are major. Droughts, flooding and tropical storms cause death, disease, destruction and large-scale population displacement. Public health emergencies are already increasing because of these changes. Conflicts and conflict situations may increase, as may the resulting human migration and displacement. Humanitarian actors working on the ground with climate-related disasters are well placed to observe the intensification of climate-related effects and the increasing complexity of extreme weather events in all regions of the world, including regions where such events were previously rare or unknown. This annex accompanies the ALNAP Lessons Paper: Adapting humanitarian action to climate change, which aims to inform the work of humanitarian practitioners in the face of future climate-related disasters.
Topic:: Climate Change, Natural Disasters, Crisis Management, and Humanitarian Organizations
Political Geography:: Global Focus

10732. One Nation One Subscription

Author:: Usha Mujoo Munshi and Jagdish Arora
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: India International Centre (IIC)
Abstract:: One Nation, One Subscription (ONOS), an initiative proposed by the Government of India (GoI), aims to provide countrywide access to national and international scientific and academic content. ONOS is expected to sign national licenses with most of the prominent STEM publishers and database producers across the world in order to encourage easy access to highquality academic information, thus stimulating scientific research and innovation in the country. This initiative is expected to benefit research and educational institutions including universities, colleges, research organisations, as well as every citizen of the country through public libraries.
Topic:: Education, Government, Research, Academia, Publishing, and Information
Political Geography:: South Asia and India

10733. Book Launch: Lineages of the Literary: Tibetan Buddhist Polymaths of Socialist China

Author:: Nicole Willock and Gray Tuttle
Publication Date:: 10-2021
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Weatherhead East Asian Institute, Columbia University
Abstract:: In the aftermath of the cataclysmic Maoist period, three Tibetan Buddhist scholars living and working in the People’s Republic of China became intellectual heroes and were renowned as the “Three Polymaths”: Tséten Zhabdrung (1910–1985), Mugé Samten (1914–1993), and Dungkar Lozang Trinlé (1927–1997). Lineages of the Literary, by Nicole Willock, reveals how the Three Polymaths negotiated the political tides of the twentieth century, shedding new light on Sino-Tibetan relations and Buddhism during this turbulent era. An interdisciplinary work spanning religious studies, history, literary studies, and social theory, Lineages of the Literary offers new insight into the categories of religion and the secular, the role of Tibetan Buddhist leaders in modern China, and the contested ground of Tibet.
Topic:: Religion, History, Leadership, Literature, Secularism, Buddhism, and Social Theory
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and Tibet

10734. Book Launch: A Buddhist Sensibility: Aesthetic Education at Tibet's Mindröling Monastery

Author:: Dominique Townsend, Janet Gyatso, and Lauran Hartley
Publication Date:: 10-2021
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Weatherhead East Asian Institute, Columbia University
Abstract:: A Buddhist Sensibility sheds new light on the forms of knowledge valued in early modern Tibetan societies, especially among the ruling classes. Townsend traces how tastes, values, and sensibilities were cultivated and spread by Tibetan Buddhist teachers of the Nyingma School at Mindröling monastery in the 17th century and onwards, showing what it meant for a person, lay or monastic, to be deemed well-educated. Combining historical and literary analysis with fieldwork in Tibetan Buddhist communities, this book reveals how monastic institutions work as centers of cultural production beyond the boundaries of what is conventionally deemed Buddhist.
Topic:: Education, Religion, History, Buddhism, and Cultural Production
Political Geography:: Asia and Tibet

10735. Putin’s Friends? The Complex Balance Inside Italy’s Far-Right Government Coalition

Author:: Raimondo Lanza
Publication Date:: 11-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:: Italy’s new far-right government has been widely perceived as the potential weak spot of the anti-Kremlin European front following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine: traditionally pro-Putin politicians such as Matteo Salvini and Silvio Berlusconi are back in power. Yet, after Mario Draghi’s hawkish Euro-Atlantic government fell in July and Giorgia Meloni was looking forward to a probable victory, she immediately sided with the European Union and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization in a firm condemnation of Russia. Putin’s Friends? The Complex Balance Inside Italy’s Far-Right Government Coalition Download 0.66 Mo Key takeways: Italy’s good relations with Putin’s Russia have not been the prerogative of a specific party. Political, economic and energy ties developed significantly with center-left and center-right governments alike. In line with most far-right parties in the EU, Salvini’s Northern League and Meloni’s Brothers of Italy developed an appreciation for Putin’s neo-conservative regime while criticizing the EU and NATO for damaging Italy’s entente with Moscow. A potential reconciliation with Moscow goes against Italy’s national interest at this point. Russia accounts for only 1.5% of Italy’s exports against its Western partners’80%. Besides, the EU’s interconnected gas market requires a coordinated plan to overcome the energy crisis. Finally, the reconquest of Kherson by Ukraine in November makes support for the Kremlin political suicide. Meloni’s sudden pro-NATO shift has taken much of her electorate by surprise, while support for Ukraine is low in the country. Coalition allies Salvini and Berlusconi are ready to take advantage of this gap to weaken Meloni’s leadership. This is typical of Italy’s fragile parliamentary democracy. To avoid further disappointing her electorate, Meloni is rapidly satisfying other demands of theirs, on issues such as migration, family values and tax policies.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Right-Wing Politics, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Italy

10736. 2021 Guide to Women Leaders in International Affairs

Author:: Women's Foreign Policy Group (WFPG)
Publication Date:: 10-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Women's Foreign Policy Group (WFPG)
Abstract:: WFPG's Guide to Women Leaders in International Affairs highlights women shaping foreign policy around the world and the role that they play as leaders, diplomats, and policymakers. The Guide provides an index of prominent women from across the international community, including heads of state and government, government ministers and diplomats, and leaders of international organizations and corporations.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Women, Leadership, and Representation
Political Geography:: Global Focus

10737. 2021 Resource Governance Index

Author:: Natural Resource Governance Institute
Publication Date:: 12-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Natural Resource Governance Institute
Abstract:: Decisions about how the oil, gas and mining sectors are governed determine the wellbeing of the billion people living in poverty in resource-rich countries. Where policies and practices ensure informed, inclusive and accountable decision making, natural resources can enable fair, prosperous and sustainable societies, rather than undermine them. The climate crisis, the coronavirus pandemic and dramatic changes in global energy markets have increased the stakes of good governance. Complex decisions about how to enable the political and economic adaptations necessary for a managed phaseout of fossil fuels and responsible increase in production of transition minerals sit at the heart of this dual crisis. Governance of the oil, gas and mining sectors will play a central role in the transition away from fossil fuels and the return to progress against poverty. The Natural Resource Governance Institute (NRGI) produces the Resource Governance Index (RGI) as a diagnostic tool to measure the governance of oil, gas, and mining sectors in select countries and to highlight opportunities for policy and practice reforms at the global, regional and country levels. The 2021 RGI assesses the governance of extractive sectors in 18 countries, including both established mineral and hydrocarbon producers, as well as new and prospective entrants to natural resource production.
Topic:: Oil, Natural Resources, Governance, Gas, Mining, Sustainability, and Inclusion
Political Geography:: Uganda, Africa, Central Asia, Middle East, Mongolia, Colombia, South America, Azerbaijan, Lebanon, Tanzania, Mexico, Senegal, Nigeria, Morocco, Qatar, Tunisia, Peru, Ghana, Guinea, Guyana, and Democratic Republic of Congo

10738. 2021 Resource Governance Index: Lebanon (Oil and Gas)

Author:: Natural Resource Governance Institute
Publication Date:: 11-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Natural Resource Governance Institute
Abstract:: Assessed for the first time, Lebanon’s governance of its nascent oil and gas sector scored 53 out of 100 points in the 2021 Resource Governance Index. While Lebanon is not yet an oil and gas producer, its government has begun to establish an institutional framework to govern the sector before production begins. Lebanon received a “satisfactory” score of 73 points in terms of its ability to realize value from its sector according to the RGI, with the Lebanese Petroleum Administration (LPA) displaying signs of best practice in terms of extractive sector transparency. Nonetheless, “weak” revenue management and a “poor” enabling environment are causes for concern for the future of Lebanon’s resource governance.
Topic:: Corruption, Oil, Natural Resources, Governance, and Gas
Political Geography:: Middle East and Lebanon

10739. Oil and Gas in Lebanon: Time to Rethink Expectations

Author:: Aaron Sayne and Laury Haytayan
Publication Date:: 11-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Natural Resource Governance Institute
Abstract:: Lebanon’s hopes of “entering the club of oil producers” have not materialized. After almost a decade of high expectations, the country still has no proven reserves of oil or natural gas. Instead, the one well drilled so far, by partners Eni, Total and Novatek, revealed only trace amounts of gas. Now the government has extended the companies’ deadline to explore until August 2022 and has postponed a second oil and gas licensing round. Lebanon needs a new, more realistic vision of what oil and gas can do for it. For years, politicians in Beirut have told the public that exporting fossil fuels would transform the country’s failing economy, and that generating electricity from gas would turn around its mismanaged power sector. In this briefing we do not try to predict the future—especially considering how fast conditions on the ground are changing. Instead, we offer an evidence-based warning about the wisdom of Lebanon staking its economic or energy future on oil and gas. The conclusions and observations are based on analysis of the current situation and on the experiences of fossil-fuel dependent countries and other prospective new producers. The current moment, though very painful, offers the country a chance to build a new energy strategy that it can start to implement when its economic and political fortunes improve. This strategy should realistically and sustainably meet people’s needs, rather than make them worse.
Topic:: Oil, Natural Resources, Gas, Economy, and Fossil Fuels
Political Geography:: Middle East and Lebanon

10740. 2021 Resource Governance Index: Azerbaijan (Oil and Gas)

Author:: Natural Resource Governance Institute
Publication Date:: 11-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Natural Resource Governance Institute
Abstract:: Azerbaijan’s oil and gas sector scored 56 points out of 100 in the 2021 Resource Governance Index (RGI), up by nine points since the 2017 RGI. The country’s ability to realize value from the sector and its overall “enabling environment” deteriorated since the last assessment, but revenue management improved by 35 points and now places in the “good” performance band. Key messages: Governance of licensing received a “failing” 11 points, due to a lack of rules and disclosures in the licensing process, as well issues regarding disclosure of officials’ financial interests and identification of the beneficial owners of companies involved in the sector. The governance of local impacts received a “failing” score, with issues both in terms of the laws and disclosures of environmental and social impact assessments and environmental mitigation plans. SOCAR, the state-owned oil producer, scored in the lower end of the “satisfactory” performance band, with commodity sales rules and disclosures especially problematic. The implementation of fiscal rules and their monitoring boosted the national budgeting subcomponent score by 37 points since the 2017 RGI. SOFAZ, the country’s sovereign wealth fund, received a “good” score due to improvements in both the legal framework and disclosures.
Topic:: Environment, Oil, Natural Resources, Governance, and Gas
Political Geography:: Central Asia and Azerbaijan

10741. Managing Senegal’s Oil and Gas Revenues

Author:: William Davis, Andrew Bauer, and Papa Daouda Diene
Publication Date:: 12-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Natural Resource Governance Institute
Abstract:: As of late 2021, Senegal is on the cusp of becoming a significant oil and gas producer. The revenues that it can expect to mobilize present it with an important opportunity to speed the country’s development by increasing public investment. In preparation for this, Senegalese authorities are currently revising the country’s framework for managing its oil and gas revenues, which remains a work in progress. The authors of this report evaluate various aspects of Senegal’s policy framework for managing oil and gas revenues and share recommendations as to how it could be strengthened.
Topic:: Oil, Natural Resources, Gas, and Revenue Management
Political Geography:: Africa and Senegal

10742. Step by Step: Closing the Implementation Gap in Senegal's Petroleum Licensing Process

Author:: Papa Daouda Diene and Nicola Woodroffe
Publication Date:: 12-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Natural Resource Governance Institute
Abstract:: Historically, Senegal has experienced significant “implementation gaps” between rules and implementation of these rules in its petroleum licensing process. Causes have included lack of legal clarity, duplicative and conflicting institutional roles, and lack of institutional capacity. However, Senegal has made good progress on closing this implementation gap. As of 2020, Senegal’s implementation gap in the petroleum licensing process as measured by the Resource Governance Index is very small and reflects recent government reforms, investments and disclosures. Despite major progress in closing the implementation gap in the licensing process, Senegal has significant room for improvement in the transparency of the oil and gas licensing process. Senegal’s government should work to improve laws on the disclosure of assets of public officials and the disclosure of the identities of the beneficial owners of companies applying for and obtaining licenses.
Topic:: Natural Resources, Regulation, Legislation, and Policy Implementation
Political Geography:: Africa and Senegal

10743. Small States, Different Approaches: Estonia and Norway on the UN Security Council

Author:: Kristin M. Haugevik, Piret Kuusik, Kristi Raik, and Niels Nagelhus Schia
Publication Date:: 11-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
Abstract:: In 2021, Estonia and Norway served as elected members of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC). Both being relatively small states, defending multilateral cooperation and rules-based international order were important common goals. In the last decade, great power tensions have returned to the Security Council, and multilateralism has again come under pressure. The opportunities of elected members to substantially influence the UNSC agenda are arguably limited by power struggles, complex subject matter and inefficient working methods. In spite of these limitations, both Estonia and Norway achieved some important outcomes as members of the Security Council. Their experiences confirm above all the value of diplomatic experience and reputation-building for elected members. To some extent, the two states have also been able to assume ownership of matters on the UNSC agenda. As in any diplomatic setting, knowing how to “play the game” is key to the ability of small states to punch above their weight. Specific methods through which elected members work to influence the UNSC agenda include coalition-building, actively using the presidency function, organising special events, and assuming the penholder role in a specific country or thematic issue. Common priority areas of Estonia and Norway in the UNSC include conflict resolution and peacebuilding, protection of human rights and especially women’s rights, and addressing new security challenges in the fields of cyber and climate. The most significant experience of cooperation during 2021 was the Estonian-Norwegian joint penholdership of the Afghanistan file which brought the two countries to the centre stage of global diplomacy and reinforced their international profile as small states that make an active and professional contribution to multilateral cooperation. Looking at Estonia’s and Norway’s performance in 2021, some interesting differences can be identified. First, the two states assess the relative importance of the UN differently. In Norway’s foreign policy, there is a strong tradition of prioritising the UN and seeing an active role in multilateral cooperation as an important contribution to national interests and security. By contrast, for Estonia, the UN has not been a foreign policy priority in the past, and its contribution to national security continues to be seen as secondary to membership in Western organisations, notably NATO and the EU. Furthermore, Norway has generally worked a bit more behind the scenes, relying on its long experience and reputation as a constructive contributor to peace diplomacy. It has been active on issues such as the UNSC’s normative protection agenda and climate security, but also the Afghanistan, Syria and North Korea files. Meanwhile, Estonia has taken a rather bold approach as a newcomer visibly promoting its priorities, most notably the cybersecurity agenda. It has also focused on controversial issues of regional security, including the situations in Ukraine and Belarus, trying to use the UN to the advantage of national security through promoting its positions and strengthening coalitions with like-minded countries. Coordination between like-minded states is an integral part of the work of the Council. With Estonia and Norway both present, 2021 saw two Nordic-Baltic states concurrently represented in the Council for the first time. In the future, there may be scope for further strengthening Nordic-Baltic cooperation in the framework of the UN structures.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, International Cooperation, United Nations, Cybersecurity, and UN Security Council
Political Geography:: Europe, Norway, Estonia, and Baltic States

10744. Strategic Connectivity in the Black Sea: A Focus on Georgia

Author:: Batu Kutelia and Vasil Sikharulidze
Publication Date:: 12-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Foreign Policy Research Institute
Abstract:: This report argues that the government of Georgia needs to reshuffle its priorities in advancing its strategic connectivity in three major areas: democratic statecraft, economic modernization, and geopolitical identity. By prioritizing these three areas, Georgia can secure a better place as a major hub for transportation and logistics. Taking concrete actions and reforms will secure sustainable economic growth if Tbilisi reinforces its strategic partnerships. The wider Black Sea region has become a strategically important area because it connects Europe to the Eurasian landmass and allows the development of multidimensional and multimodal linkages related to energy, infrastructure, logistics, cyber, military, environment, and migration. This report provides policy recommendations on transportation, logistics, and critical infrastructure supporting proactive approaches for risk management and increasing resilience. The recommendations include innovative public-private cooperation for introducing modern technological and financial solutions. Other recommendations include a Western strategy to push back on Russian aggression and to strengthen security and stability.
Topic:: Partnerships, Geopolitics, Economy, Economic Growth, Modernization, Connectivity, and Strategic Engagement
Political Geography:: Eurasia, Georgia, and Black Sea

10745. Fixing the Economy and Public Service Provision in Iraq

Author:: Shivan Fazil
Publication Date:: 12-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Abstract:: Iraq’s ethnosectarian power-sharing system, with its weak institutions and low levels of accountability, has penetrated the economy and hindered the performance of the state and provision of basic services. Lack of access to economic opportunities and quality public services has been a recurring grievance during the protests in Iraq. The state’s failure to fulfil the protestors’ demands is a widely seen as a symptom of its weakness, which has resulted in calls from protestors for the complete overhaul of the political system. This, however, is unlikely in the short term. Based on interviews with current and former government-level officials and experts in Iraq, this policy brief presents recommendations that focus on reforms within the system to address some of the governance problems besetting Iraqis while the prospect of changing the political system remains remote.
Topic:: Governance, Economy, Accountability, Institutions, and Public Service
Political Geography:: Iraq and Middle East

10746. Fixing the Economy and Public Service Provision in Lebanon

Author:: Amal Bourhrous
Publication Date:: 12-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Abstract:: The limited accountability and weak institutions of Lebanon’s sectarian power-sharing system have had a severe impact on the country’s economy and the state’s ability to provide basic public services. Protesters have repeatedly voiced discontent with a political system that facilitates corruption and allows self-serving political and sectarian elites to capture public resources and escape accountability. Many have called for the sectarian power-sharing system to be transcended. Although a comprehensive reform of the political system remains a remote prospect, there is an urgent need to address the grievances of Lebanese people within the system. Based on interviews with current and former government-level officials and experts in Lebanon, this policy brief presents recommendations on what can be done within the existing system to fix the economy and public service provision.
Topic:: Governance, Public Service, and Economic Crisis
Political Geography:: Middle East and Lebanon

10747. Post-shipment On-site Inspections of Military Materiel: Challenges and Responses

Author:: Andrea Edoardo Varisco, Mark Bromley, and Kolja Brockmann
Publication Date:: 12-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Abstract:: Post-shipment on-site inspections enable a state to perform checks on exported military materiel after they have been delivered. This SIPRI Policy Brief is intended to inform the various national processes currently underway that are connected to the adoption and implementation of on-site inspections as well as ongoing discussions within the Arms Trade Treaty about their role in helping to prevent diversion of military materiel. The brief examines the concerns raised and challenges encountered by states in connection with adopting, requiring, and conducting on-site inspections and provides examples of practices that have been used in response. The brief also outlines how on-site inspections can be adopted and deployed in ways that help to promote cooperation between exporters and importers in preventing diversion of military materiel.
Topic:: Weapons, Arms Trade, and Oversight
Political Geography:: Global Focus

10748. Taking Stock of the Arms Trade Treaty: A Summary of Policy Options

Author:: Lucile Robin, Andrea Edoardo Varisco, and Giovanna Maletta
Publication Date:: 12-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Abstract:: Many achievements can be ascribed to the entry into force of the Arms Trade Treaty (ATT) seven years ago. At the same time, there remain areas in which the treaty can be improved or strengthened. A stocktaking exercise conducted by SIPRI has resulted in the elaboration of a series of policy options to further strengthen five aspects of the treaty: its scope, the application of its prohibitions and the risk-assessment criteria, its processes and forums, promotion of its universalization, and support for states’ implementation. Taken together, these proposed measures represent a menu of options for ATT stakeholders.
Topic:: Treaties and Agreements, Weapons, and Arms Trade
Political Geography:: Global Focus

10749. Reform within the System: Governance in Iraq and Lebanon

Author:: Amal Bourhrous, Shivan Fazil, Meray Maddah, and Dylan O'Driscoll
Publication Date:: 12-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Abstract:: The 2019 protests in Iraq and Lebanon revealed a widespread dissatisfaction with political systems based on sectarian and ethnosectarian power-sharing, which many saw as being responsible for a host of governance failures. This has given rise to demands for a wholesale change of the political systems in both countries. However, the dismantlement of identity-based power-sharing systems is a remote prospect—they are deeply entrenched, and change would depend on action from the very political elites that benefit from them. Instead, this SIPRI Policy Paper explores what can be done in the short term to address some of the key challenges confronting Iraq and Lebanon. In contexts where the political elites’ grip on the political system remains tight, every possible opportunity for reform must be grasped.
Topic:: Corruption, Governance, Reform, and Public Service
Political Geography:: Iraq, Middle East, and Lebanon

10750. Ambivalence About International Trade in Open- and Closed-ended Survey Responses

Author:: Arturo Chang, Thomas Ferguson, Jacob Rothschild, and Ben Page
Publication Date:: 10-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:: Spontaneous, open-ended survey responses can sometimes better reveal what is actually on people’s minds than small sets of forced-choice, closed questions. Our analysis of closed questions and trade-related open-ended responses to 2016 ANES “likes” and “dislikes” prompts indicate that Americans held considerably more complex, more ambivalent, and – in many cases – more negative views of international trade than has been apparent in studies that focus only on closed-ended responses. This paper suggests that contrast between open- and closed-question data may help explain why the effectiveness of Donald Trump’s appeals to trade resentments surprised many observers.
Topic:: International Trade and Finance, Survey, Models, and Polls
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

10751. Mexico’s Automotive Industry: A Success Story?

Author:: Jorge Carreto Sanginés, Margherita Russo, and Annamaria Simonazzi
Publication Date:: 10-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:: In less than three decades Mexico’s automotive industry has gone from a minor role to the 7th largest world producer of automotive vehicles. The Mexican experience is part of the more general case of the “integrated peripheries.” The development of these cannot be accounted for separately from the developments occurring in its core country. Unlike the core-periphery literature, however, our analysis emphasizes that the various clusters of cores and integrated peripheries are not alike. In the case under study, the core has been systematically lagging behind the main transformations pioneered by its competitors. The paper traces the evolution of the Mexican automotive industry, emphasizing the difficulties faced by a late-comer country in developing an independent industry, and the importance of policy choices as well as the macroeconomic context in affecting its development. NAFTA represents the culmination of an integration process that has profoundly transformed the structure of the Mexican automotive industry, deepening its dependence on the US market. While there is no doubt that it has contributed to the spectacular growth of the Mexican auto industry, whether it also increased its resilience or, rather, its dependence is still an open question. This issue is particularly relevant in view of the transformations that are taking place in the automotive sector and in the geopolitical scenario. These include the end of NAFTA and the advent of USMCA, the entry of powerful competitors into the global market, and the transition to electric and autonomous vehicles, which all entail risks and opportunities. The lens of the centre-periphery relationship can help to understand the present integration of North America and its future direction.
Topic:: International Trade and Finance, NAFTA, Regionalism, Industry, and Motor Vehicles
Political Geography:: North America and Mexico

10752. Zombies at Large? Corporate Debt Overhang and the Macroeconomy

Author:: Oscar Jorda, Martin Kornejew, Moritz Schularick, and Alan Taylor
Publication Date:: 11-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:: What are the macroeconomic consequences of business credit booms? Are they as dangerous as household credit booms? If not, why not? We answer these questions by collecting data on non- financial business liabilities (primarily bank loans and corporate bonds) for 17 advanced economies over the past 150 years. Unlike household credit, business credit booms are rarely followed by macroeconomic hangovers. Data on debt renegotiation costs—instrumented by a country’s legal tradition—show that frictions to debt resolution make recessions deeper and longer—an important factor in explaining the differences with household credit booms.
Topic:: Debt, Economics, Macroeconomics, and Corporations
Political Geography:: Global Focus

10753. The Knife Edge Election of 2020: American Politics Between Washington, Kabul, and Weimar

Author:: Thomas Ferguson, Paul Jorgensen, and Jie Chen
Publication Date:: 11-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:: This paper analyzes the 2020 election, focusing on voters, not political money, and emphasizing the importance of economic geography. Drawing extensively on county election returns, it analyzes how spatial factors combined with industrial structures to shape the outcome. It treats COVID 19’s role at length. The paper reviews studies suggesting that COVID 19 did not matter much, but then sets out a new approach indicating it mattered a great deal. The study analyzes the impact on the vote not only of unemployment but differences in income and industry structures, along with demographic factors, including religion, ethnicity, and race. It also studies how the waves of wildcat strikes and social protests that punctuated 2020 affected the vote in specific areas. Trump’s very controversial trade policies and his little discussed farm policies receive detailed attention. The paper concludes with a look at how political money helped make the results of the Congressional election different from the Presidential race. It also highlights the continuing importance of private equity and energy sectors opposed to government action to reverse climate change as conservative forces in (especially) the Republican Party, together with agricultural interests.
Topic:: Elections, Protests, Voting, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

10754. Central Banks Caught Between Market Liquidity and Fiscal Disciplining: A Money View Perspective on Collateral Policy

Author:: Jakob Vestergaard and Daniela Gabor
Publication Date:: 12-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:: Despite much attention to unconventional monetary policies after the financial crisis, the collateral policies of central banks are rarely discussed. And when they are, the haircuts applied to assets pledged to access central bank liquidity tend not to be analyzed. An exception to these trends is the recent work by Nyborg (2017), who argues that the collateral policies adopted by the European Central Bank (ECB) aggravated the sovereign debt crisis and put the survival of the euro at risk. Taking our point of departure in the money view literature (Mehrling 2011), we argue however that Nyborg’s critique of the ECB’s crisis response is misguided and that his proposal to deepen and reinforce the ECBs role in the fiscal disciplining of member states would be procyclical and destabilizing. Through our analysis of Nyborg’s work and the ECBs crisis response, we identify core principles for countercyclical collateral policies suitable for market-based financial systems.
Topic:: Monetary Policy, Financial Crisis, Finance, and Banking
Political Geography:: Global Focus

10755. Can Panel Data Methodologies Determine the Impact of Climate Change on Economic Growth?

Author:: Richard A. Rosen
Publication Date:: 12-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:: Several major papers have been published over the last ten years claiming to have detected the impact of either annual variations in weather or climate change on the GDPs of most countries in the world using panel data-based statistical methodologies. These papers rely on various multivariate regression equations which include the annual average temperatures for most countries in the world as one or more of the independent variables, where the usual dependent variable is the change in annual GDP for each country from one year to the next year over 30-50 year time periods. Unfortunately, the quantitative estimates derived in these papers are misleading because the equations from which they are calculated are wrong. The major reason the resulting regression equations are wrong is because they do not include any of the appropriate and usual economic factors or variables which are likely to be able to explain changes in GDP/economic growth whether or not climate change has already impacted each country’s economy. These equations, in short, exhibit suffer from “omitted variable bias,” to use statistical terminology.
Topic:: Climate Change, Economics, Economic Growth, and Methodology
Political Geography:: Global Focus

10756. Asset Prices Under Knightian Uncertainty

Author:: Roman Frydman, Søren Johansen, Anders Rahbek, and Morten Tabor
Publication Date:: 12-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:: We extend Lucas’s classic asset-price model by opening the stochastic process driving dividends to Knightian uncertainty arising from unforeseeable change. Implementing Muth’s hypothesis, we represent participants’ expectations as being consistent with our model’s predictions and formalize their ambiguity- averse decisions with maximization of intertemporal multiple-priors utility. We characterize the asset-price function with a stochastic Euler equation and derive a novel prediction that the relationship between prices and dividends undergoes unforeseeable change. Our approach accords participants’ expectations, driven by both fundamental and psychological factors, an autonomous role in driving the asset price over time, without presuming that participants are irrational.
Topic:: Economics, Models, and Price
Political Geography:: Global Focus

10757. Beyond Networks, Militias and Tribes: Rethinking EU Counter-Smuggling Policy and Response

Author:: Gabriella Sanchez, Kheira Arrouche, Matteo Capasso, Angeliki Dimitriadi, and Alia Fakhry
Publication Date:: 05-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: IEMed/EuroMeSCo
Abstract:: Countering migrant smuggling and its actors – described as the men behind the facilitation of migrants’ irregular journeys – are important elements of the European Union (EU)’s migration and border control policy. Under the new Pact on Migration and Asylum, the EU has proposed to promote tailor-made and mutually beneficial partnerships with third countries specifically to address migrant smuggling. EU Home Affairs Commissioner Ylva Johansson has also promised a predictable and reliable migration management system that includes “stepping up the fight against human traffickers and smugglers”. The EU has certainly taken important steps to counter irregular migration, including making considerable financial commitments to the fight against smugglers and their networks, to whom the journeys of irregular migrants into Europe are almost single-handedly attributed. Smugglers, characterised as inherently violent and exploitative, are also described as relying on a specific business model that generates incalculable earnings. Much has been written about how these profits, if unmonitored, can be funnelled by smugglers into other criminal enterprises like drug trafficking or weapons smuggling, but also into the more nefarious practices of sex trafficking or terrorism. Within this context, smugglers are also said to exploit an ever-growing number of naïve and desperate victims, primarily young men from sub-Saharan Africa who, driven solely by the power of social media and the iconography portraying European soil as a dreamed destination, do not think twice about embarking on dangerous journeys across vast deserts and seas. At high level policy events and academic exchanges, participants often cite examples of young men who, tricked by Facebook and Instagram posts, arrive in Europe after enduring harrowing experiences only to find themselves in even more desperate situations of homelessness and deprivation, having believed the lies and false promises of smugglers, friends and family members posted online. Migrant women, on the other hand, tend to be described as young sex slaves or prostitutes, victims of the depravity of sexually-predatory smugglers who do not hesitate to exploit them for profit in cities across North Africa and Europe. Migrants do face violence and intimidation at the hands of smugglers. These experiences have been documented at length in a vast number of reports targeting European audiences. Kidnapping, extortion, and physical and sexual assault are undeniable and troubling realities on the migration pathway, and migrants do experience them often at the hands of smugglers. Women, girls, and lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender, intersex and questioning migrants are also more vulnerable to specific forms of sexual and gender-based violence (SGBV), which are often compounded by racism and other forms of discrimination – this does not preclude the fact that SGBV against migrant men is also common on the migrant trail. This policy study, developed by a team of migration scholars based in EU research institutions, argues that while these general notions have guided the mainstream, collective understanding of migrant smuggling, they do in fact pose several and serious limitations that, if not considered closely, can lead to faulty conclusions and inadequate policy responses. Echoing other studies, this report shows that irregular migration and counter-smuggling policy are often based on limited empirical data, drawn from similar if not identical stakeholders, and developed by a reduced and identifiable core of researchers (most of them, European and/or Europe-based). While this body of work has to a large extent expanded the understanding of smuggling, it has simultaneously privileged Euro-centric perspectives and law enforcement priorities at the expense of silencing the experiences (other than those involving victimisation and abuse) of the very people who rely on smugglers for their journeys. Chapter one examines how research has shown that while in most law enforcement, policy and academic circles the facilitation of irregular migration for profit is articulated as a crime, for most migrants the people behind their journeys merely facilitate a service of mobility, which may be in some instances illicit but not criminal, rooted in the lack of accessible, affordable, legal and safe paths for migration. These actors, commonly depicted in academic publications and research reports as heinously violent and predatory members of tribes or other ethnic and racialised groups, are quite often valued and well-respected people in communities across North Africa and the Sahel, trusted for the efficiency of their mobility, trade and transportation services. Known or depicted as smugglers in policy reports, these facilitators are quite often ordinary men and women, recognised for their contributions to the local economy, including the provision of mobility solutions for young and adult migrants unable to secure the protections afforded by passports or visas.
Topic:: Migration, Regional Cooperation, European Union, and Trafficking
Political Geography:: Europe

10758. Post-Covid-19 EU-Southern Neighbourhood Trade Relations

Author:: Katarzyna Sidlo, Esmat Mostafa Kamel, Hussein Suleiman, and Guillaume Van der Loo
Publication Date:: 05-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: IEMed/EuroMeSCo
Abstract:: The European Union (EU) is a key trade partner, both in terms of goods and services, for the countries in its Southern Neighbourhood (SN): Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Egypt, Israel, Palestine,[1] Jordan and Lebanon.[2] The economic (and otherwise) relationship between the two partners is governed by the Euro-Mediterranean Association Agreements (EMAAs), which came into force from the early to mid-2000s. The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has, however, affected the trade exchange between the two, just as it has an adverse impact on trade globally. As pointed out in the second chapter of this policy study, one of the sectors of great importance to both the EU and the SN is agri-foods. Despite a general drop in merchandise trade, the agri-food exports from the EU actually increased globally by 0.5% during the first 10 months of the pandemic compared to the same period the year before, up to €151.8 billion. In the case of the SN, exports of agri-foods during the first three quarters of 2020 (year-on-year) grew particularly strongly in the case of Morocco (27.2%) and Algeria (20.3%) and decreased most visibly in the case of Lebanon (-37.9%). As for exports from the EU to the SN, during the same period a particularly impressive growth was witnessed in the case of Tunisia (40.3%) but the value of agri-food imports of Morocco also went up (8.4%). Trade in services, as analysed in chapter three, was hit more severely than trade in goods and declined significantly in all countries in the region during the first months of the pandemic. For Morocco, for instance, during the first three quarters of 2020 it plummeted by almost 60% (year-on-year). Because of lockdowns and travel bans, the tourism sector was among the hardest hit, even though the countries in the SN are mostly visited by travellers from nearby markets: the SN region or Europe – in 2019 the latter constituted between 29.4% (Tunisia) and 68.2% (Morocco) of all arrivals (after excluding nationals of SN countries who live abroad). As a result, tourism revenues plummeted (in Palestine, for instance, by an estimated 68%) and a significant number of people were made redundant; before the pandemic, between just under 6% (Algeria and Israel) and nearly 20% (Lebanon) of all (formally employed) workers were employed in the travel and tourism sector. The disturbances outlined above have adversely impacted food security in the region, as initial data presented in chapter four suggests. While isolating the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on food security is difficult, as many other factors – such as bad harvest due to weather conditions in Morocco – were in play in 2020, the pandemic clearly affected both supply of and demand for foodstuffs. Some countries were more affected than others, as has already been mentioned above in the case of agri-food trade with the EU. At the same time, the impact on food security within the countries was also far from homogenous, with refugees (e.g., due to loss of work in informal sector) and poorer households – spending a bigger share of domestic budget on increasingly more expensive food products – more often forced to adopt emergency livelihood coping strategies, such as limitation of daily calory intake. Looking towards the post-COVID-19 trade relations, as outlined in chapter one of this study, the EU’s post-pandemic recovery plans and trade strategy review offer a new momentum for the SN countries to strengthen and modernise their framework for trade relations with the EU, to capitalise on potential re-shoring and near-shoring trends in EU and global value chains, and to promote (intra-) regional economic integration. However, the envisaged Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Areas (DCFTAs) currently under negotiation with Tunisia and Morocco may not be the most realistic option at this stage. A more gradual approach based on sectoral agreements could be adopted in the short- to medium-term instead, leading to a DCFTA-like model of trade integration. Moreover, in order to strengthen the (intra-)regional economic and value chain integration, modernisation of the Pan-Euro-Mediterranean Convention should remain a priority. Finally, the modernisation of EU-SN trade relations should be linked and integrated into the broader (and longer-term) plans for EU-Africa trade relations, with an eye on the “continent-to-continent Free Trade Area” in the long run. Internally, governments in the SN should prioritise development of high productivity service sectors and work towards curbing their reliance on tourism and transportation. In order to achieve that goal, improving the quality of their institutions is as important as upgrading telecommunications infrastructure or adopting incentives such as tax breaks. More broadly, speeding up digital transformation would both facilitate servicification and reduce costs associated with merchandise trade.
Topic:: International Trade and Finance, Regional Cooperation, European Union, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Europe and Mediterranean

10759. Impacts of the War on the Telecommunications Sector in Yemen

Author:: Mansoor al-Bashiri
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Sana'a Center For Strategic Studies
Abstract:: The telecommunications and information technology sector in Yemen is a vital component of the country’s infrastructure and plays a critical role in economic growth. It is the second largest source of public revenue after the petroleum sector, and contributes important work opportunities, whether directly or indirectly, through its connections to other sectors of the national economy. From 2015 to 2019, the sector’s performance has varied due to the extraordinary circumstances Yemen has been going through. It is estimated that the conflict has caused about $4.1 billion in direct financial losses for the telecommunications sector due to electricity outages (at times caused by a lack of fuel), institutional fragmentation, and competing policies and financial demands by the authorities in Sana’a and Aden, as well as confiscation of assets and extortion. The sector has also lost a number of opportunities that may have otherwise been available if it were not for the outbreak of the conflict, like the development of licensing agreements and the progression to 4G technology. Investors in the telecommunications sector have been deterred from the Yemeni market despite its large size and the fact that many services are not currently being provided by the companies operating in the sector. The sector faces a large number of challenges, the most serious of which are: the unsuitability of the legal and institutional regulatory environments; fragmentation of public entities in the sector; unproductive accusations made by the parties to the conflict; the lack of separation between political, regulatory and operational roles within the sector; and the reliance on a weak and fragile infrastructure to provide these services. Other challenges include the restrictions imposed on importing equipment, difficulty accessing a number of districts and entire governorates to carry out necessary repairs, declining revenues for the companies, and the increase of fees being levied by both the authorities in Sana’a and in Aden, compounded by the population’s general impoverishment and limited purchasing power. To strengthen the role of Yemen’s telecommunications, there must be efforts in the short term to depoliticize the sector during the conflict, repair operator networks, introduce new services (such as video conferencing and digital financial services), and work to lower internet tariffs—this paper does not provide an analysis of how to achieve a viable mix of upgraded services and affordable prices while still maintaining the feasibility of new investments. In the medium and long term, efforts to draft new telecommunications laws must continue, in addition to separating regulatory and operational roles, developing the regulatory and institutional environment, encouraging private investment, and updating educational programs and university curricula to ensure that they are up-to-date with ongoing developments in the field of telecommunications and information technology. These curricula and programs must meet the local market’s needs for specialized labor.
Topic:: Economic Growth, Conflict, Information Technology, and Telecommunications
Political Geography:: Middle East and Yemen

10760. Solar-Powered Irrigation in Yemen: Opportunities, Challenges and Policies

Author:: Musaed M. Aklan and Helen Lackner
Publication Date:: 04-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Sana'a Center For Strategic Studies
Abstract:: Yemen is one of the most water-scarce countries in the world, with renewable water resources currently capable of providing only 75 m3 per capita per year – well below the water scarcity threshold. And this volume is steadily dropping. The agricultural sector in Yemen is the dominant user of groundwater resources, accounting for around 90 percent of total consumption. Due to the current crisis, fuel required for pumps has become scarce and very expensive; as a result, solar energy has begun to play a role in the extraction and supply of groundwater for irrigation. However, there is concern about the misuse of this new technology. This study examines the current trend of solar-powered irrigation system (SPIS) use in Sana’a Basin, identifying the pros and cons of this approach. It presents the perspectives of farmers and experts in terms of what is happening and what should be done to maximize the benefits and minimize the negative impacts of SPIS. The incidence of SPIS installation is increasing at a rate of more than 4 percent annually. Farmers spoken to as a part of this study expressed enthusiasm to use SPIS and cited capital cost as the biggest obstacle to their acquiring this technology. This paper proposes governance and policy recommendations for overall water management and, in particular, for future studies and regulation of SPIS-driven groundwater use. Setting appropriate policies for water-pumping powered by renewable energy will help to conserve groundwater sources and sustainably preserve livelihoods.
Topic:: Agriculture, Water, Renewable Energy, Solar Power, and Irrigation
Political Geography:: Middle East and Yemen

10761. Local Economic Councils: A Tool to Improve Business Productivity in Yemen

Author:: Sana'a Center for Strategic Studies
Publication Date:: 09-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Sana'a Center For Strategic Studies
Abstract:: Even before the events of 2014 and 2015 that led Yemen into the ongoing civil war, its economy was fragile. The years of hardship that have haunted the country ever since have been devastating. Yemen is now rated as one of the hardest places in the world for businesses to operate and is last or near last in a host of global business competitiveness indexes. From January 25-27,2021 the seventh Development Champions Forum, held virtually, focused on this dire national situation. To help address local economic challenges, the Development Champions discussed the possibility of establishing Local Economic Councils. According to their analysis, between the existing community-level local development committees (which guide targeted, small scale infrastructure investment from development funds such as the Social Fund for Development and the World Bank) and the Supreme Economic Council (which guides sector-led state investment at a national level), a space exists for a governorate-level body to drive development by guiding investment to serve local needs and strengthen ties between the governorates and the private sector.
Topic:: Development, Economy, Business, Conflict, and Local Councils
Political Geography:: Middle East and Yemen

10762. Priorities for the Recovery and Reform of the Electricity Sector in Yemen

Author:: Akram M. Almohamadi
Publication Date:: 11-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Sana'a Center For Strategic Studies
Abstract:: Electricity is the backbone of any economy and one of the necessities of modern life. Since even before the current war, poor electricity services in Yemen have been one of the key barriers to sustainable economic development and basic service provisions, such as water supply, health care, and education. This policy brief presents an overview of the electricity sector and its relevant indicators prior to the conflict. It then outlines the impact of the conflict on the sector, and concludes with a set of priorities for restoring the pre-war capacity of the electricity sector, then further reforming it to improve its performance. Immediate- to short-term recommendations include: adopting a realistic and practical recovery plan; securing funds for rehabilitating the infrastructure; reviewing the electricity tariff; reducing technical and non-technical electricity losses; purchasing electricity when needed through a competitive process and via least-cost options, such as gas and renewable energy; securing the fuel supply and the salaries of sector staff; resuming all suspended projects; finding sustainable and feasible solutions for the electricity supply in each governorate to avoid the challenges associated with the centralized grid; and installing sustainable stand-alone solar systems, compatible for connection to the national grid (when restored). The medium- to long-term priorities include specific recommendations under five categories, relating to: the legal and regulatory framework; institutional arrangements; capacity and performance; private sector participation; and technical issues. This policy brief was developed based on a more detailed research paper published under the same title by Rethinking Yemen’s Economy project in May 25, 2021.
Topic:: Reform, Economy, Conflict, Electricity, and Energy Sector
Political Geography:: Middle East and Yemen

10763. A Decade After the Uprising – The Yemen Review, March-April 2021

Author:: Sana'a Center for Strategic Studies
Publication Date:: 05-2021
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Sana'a Center For Strategic Studies
Abstract:: The Yemen Review Launched in June 2016, The Yemen Review – formerly known as Yemen at the UN – is a monthly publication produced by the Sana’a Center for Strategic Studies. It aims to identify and assess current diplomatic, economic, political, military, security, humanitarian and human rights developments related to Yemen. In producing The Yemen Review, Sana’a Center staff throughout Yemen and around the world gather information, conduct research, hold private meetings with local, regional, and international stakeholders, and analyze the domestic and international context surrounding developments in and regarding Yemen. This monthly series is designed to provide readers with a contextualized insight into the country’s most important ongoing issues
Topic:: Diplomacy, Geopolitics, Conflict, and Uprising
Political Geography:: Middle East and Yemen

10764. Wanted: A Peacemaker Who Can Deliver – The Yemen Review, May 2021

Author:: Sana'a Center for Strategic Studies
Publication Date:: 06-2021
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Sana'a Center For Strategic Studies
Abstract:: The Yemen Review Launched in June 2016, The Yemen Review – formerly known as Yemen at the UN – is a monthly publication produced by the Sana’a Center for Strategic Studies. It aims to identify and assess current diplomatic, economic, political, military, security, humanitarian and human rights developments related to Yemen. In producing The Yemen Review, Sana’a Center staff throughout Yemen and around the world gather information, conduct research, hold private meetings with local, regional, and international stakeholders, and analyze the domestic and international context surrounding developments in and regarding Yemen. This monthly series is designed to provide readers with a contextualized insight into the country’s most important ongoing issues
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Governance, Negotiation, and Peace
Political Geography:: Middle East and Yemen

10765. The View from Sana’a – The Yemen Review, Summer Edition, July 2021

Author:: Sana'a Center for Strategic Studies
Publication Date:: 08-2021
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Sana'a Center For Strategic Studies
Abstract:: The Yemen Review Launched in June 2016, The Yemen Review – formerly known as Yemen at the UN – is a monthly publication produced by the Sana’a Center for Strategic Studies. It aims to identify and assess current diplomatic, economic, political, military, security, humanitarian and human rights developments related to Yemen. In producing The Yemen Review, Sana’a Center staff throughout Yemen and around the world gather information, conduct research, hold private meetings with local, regional, and international stakeholders, and analyze the domestic and international context surrounding developments in and regarding Yemen. This monthly series is designed to provide readers with a contextualized insight into the country’s most important ongoing issues
Topic:: Diplomacy, Politics, Economy, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Middle East, Yemen, and Saudi Arabia

10766. New Fronts in the Economic War – The Yemen Review, August 2021

Author:: Sana'a Center for Strategic Studies
Publication Date:: 09-2021
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Sana'a Center For Strategic Studies
Abstract:: The Yemen Review Launched in June 2016, The Yemen Review – formerly known as Yemen at the UN – is a monthly publication produced by the Sana’a Center for Strategic Studies. It aims to identify and assess current diplomatic, economic, political, military, security, humanitarian and human rights developments related to Yemen. In producing The Yemen Review, Sana’a Center staff throughout Yemen and around the world gather information, conduct research, hold private meetings with local, regional, and international stakeholders, and analyze the domestic and international context surrounding developments in and regarding Yemen. This monthly series is designed to provide readers with a contextualized insight into the country’s most important ongoing issues
Topic:: Foreign Aid, Economy, Conflict, and Banks
Political Geography:: Middle East and Yemen

10767. Houthis at the Gates of Marib – The Yemen Review, January-February 2021

Author:: Sana'a Center for Strategic Studies
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Sana'a Center For Strategic Studies
Abstract:: The Yemen Review Launched in June 2016, The Yemen Review – formerly known as Yemen at the UN – is a monthly publication produced by the Sana’a Center for Strategic Studies. It aims to identify and assess current diplomatic, economic, political, military, security, humanitarian and human rights developments related to Yemen. In producing The Yemen Review, Sana’a Center staff throughout Yemen and around the world gather information, conduct research, hold private meetings with local, regional, and international stakeholders, and analyze the domestic and international context surrounding developments in and regarding Yemen. This monthly series is designed to provide readers with a contextualized insight into the country’s most important ongoing issues.
Topic:: Government, Politics, Conflict, and Houthis
Political Geography:: Middle East and Yemen

10768. Make Foreign Policy Feminist. A Feminist Foreign Policy Manifesto for Germany

Author:: Nina Bernarding, Kristina Lunz, Sheena Anderson, Antonia Baskakov, Damjan Denkovski, Annika Kreitlow, and Anna Provan
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Centre for Feminist Foreign Policy
Abstract:: This manifesto intends to encourage and support those inside the next government to begin the process of systematically changing how Germany’s foreign policy operates, whom it is made for, and whom it is informed by. It introduces what a Feminist Foreign Policy would look like for Germany, including a proposed definition of a German Feminist Foreign Policy. We analyse existing German Federal Foreign Policy and outline principles of a German Feminist Foreign Policy and its priority areas, presenting action items (recommendations) for a radically different way of conducting foreign policy. Among many other topics, we address climate justice, demilitarisation, health, trade and peace & security.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Government, Health, Feminism, Peace, Trade, Climate Justice, and Demilitarization
Political Geography:: Europe and Germany

10769. What the Quad Is, Is Not, and Should Not Be

Author:: Daniel Depetris
Publication Date:: 09-2021
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Defense Priorities
Abstract:: Since its establishment in 2007, the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QSD or Quad) has transformed into a multilateral forum to enhance military coordination in the Indo-Pacific among the U.S., Japan, India, and Australia and to address issues of mutual concern—particularly the rise of China. The U.S. has pushed for this transformation. Quad members speak of the group as a forum for issues in the Indo-Pacific ranging from COVID-19 and climate change to emerging technologies. But China, Asia’s biggest power, is integral to addressing each issue. In early 2021, the group’s leaders signed a joint statement reiterating the importance of a rules-based order in the Indo-Pacific—a reference to what all four members regard as China’s illegitimate claims in the South and East China Seas. Indo-Pacific Quad members also have disputes with China: India over its shared border with China; Japan over China’s sovereignty claims over the Senkaku islands; and Australia over worsening ties, including onerous trade restrictions and tariffs.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, COVID-19, and Quad Alliance
Political Geography:: Japan, China, India, Australia, and United States of America

10770. End the Failed Regime Change Campaign in Venezuela

Author:: Daniel Depetris
Publication Date:: 10-2021
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Defense Priorities
Abstract:: After Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez’s death in 2013, then-Vice President Nicolás Maduro succeeded the late socialist leader, consolidating power amid rampant economic mismanagement and increasing violence and deprivation. Venezuela’s authoritarian slide accelerated under Maduro’s rule. Electoral fraud, crackdowns on opposition figures, and human rights abuses hardened U.S. resolve to apply pressure to change Caracas’ policies. President Trump reportedly discussed using U.S. military force to oust Maduro in 2019 but pursued non-military regime change instead, increasing economic and diplomatic pressure in the false hope the Venezuelan leader would vacate his office. President Biden has continued this policy. The U.S. objective remains: (1) to delegitimize and push out Maduro as the country’s leader and (2) put pressure on Venezuela’s economy to force Caracas into reinstituting democracy.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Regime Change, Authoritarianism, Economy, Nicholas Maduro, and Mismanagement
Political Geography:: South America and Venezuela

10771. The Futility of U.S. Military Aid and Nato Aspirations for Ukraine

Author:: Sascha Glaeser
Publication Date:: 11-2021
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Defense Priorities
Abstract:: Since the 2014 Russian annexation of Crimea, the U.S. has provided $2.5 billion in military aid to Ukraine. Continued security assistance prolongs the conflict and heightens U.S.-Russia tensions. Russia shares a 1,200-mile border with Ukraine and views the prospect of Kyiv joining NATO and basing U.S. and allied forces there as a threat. Russia will absorb significant costs—monetary and human—to prevent this outcome. A resolution in Ukraine that does not account for Russia’s concerns is unrealistic; therefore, U.S. and European leaders should account for them, starting with ruling out Ukrainian accession to NATO. Because of the risk of escalation, potentially to nuclear war, the U.S. should seek détente with Russia and support the establishment of a neutral, non-aligned Ukraine that serves as a buffer state between Russia and the West.
Topic:: Security, NATO, Nuclear Weapons, Alliance, Military Aid, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, North America, Crimea, and United States of America

10772. “Maximum Pressure” Harms Diplomacy and Increases Risks of War with Iran

Author:: Daniel Depetris
Publication Date:: 11-2021
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Defense Priorities
Abstract:: With an economy less than a third the size of the U.S. defense budget and a military ill-suited for offensive operations, Iran is at best a minor threat to the U.S., and one in a region of limited strategic importance. The U.S. need not obsess over Iran policy. While Iran does not threaten vital U.S. interests, U.S. policy does seek to moderate Iran’s behavior and restrict its nuclear weapons development. That is why the U.S. negotiated the JCPOA, an agreement with Iran, Europe’s major powers, Russia, and China to constrain Iran’s nuclear activities. The Trump administration abrogated the JCPOA and imposed a policy of “maximum pressure” designed to compel Iran to renegotiate on nuclear issues and moderate its foreign policy. Rather than capitulate to U.S. demands, Iran expanded its nuclear program and increased its aggression in the Middle East. U.S. withdrawal from the JCPOA and imposition of a maximum pressure strategy harmed diplomatic efforts with Iran and increased the prospects of direct conflict. The Biden administration has so far continued the policy it inherited from the Trump administration. With nuclear negotiations between the U.S. and Iran predictably stalled, U.S. officials should abandon maximum pressure. Ongoing diplomacy is the best path to revive the JCPOA, and more importantly, lower the risks of war. Even if the JCPOA dissolves completely, U.S.-Iran diplomacy, including on nuclear issues, should continue. War with Iran is not worth the costs.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, Conflict, and JCPOA
Political Geography:: Iran and Middle East

10773. Phantom Empire: The Illusionary Nature of U.S. Military Power

Author:: Richard Hanania
Publication Date:: 12-2021
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Defense Priorities
Abstract:: The U.S. has become a “Phantom Empire,” a country that appears to be powerful because it has a robust military presence abroad but cannot use garrisoned forces to achieve geopolitical objectives. More than 225,000 U.S. troops and DoD personnel are stationed abroad in more than 150 countries. The largest deployments are to wealthy U.S. allies (Japan, Germany, and South Korea) capable of defending themselves. U.S. leaders often justify military commitments by arguing they preserve “influence.” But because American leaders are committed, in most cases, to maintaining troops abroad as a good in and of itself, the U.S. squanders most of its leverage to influence hosts. Threats to withdraw troops are not credible, making them irrelevant for most U.S. geopolitical goals. The sources of U.S. power and influence are ultimately rooted in economic prosperity and soft power. A foreign policy that cultivates these sources of strength over maintaining military commitments would better achieve U.S. geopolitical goals.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Geopolitics, Soft Power, and Military
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

10774. The Folly of a Democracy-based Grand Strategy

Author:: Benjamin Denison
Publication Date:: 12-2021
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Defense Priorities
Abstract:: President Biden’s Summit for Democracy exacerbates regime security fears in states such as Russia and China, further destabilizing relations and making it more difficult to advance U.S. interests. U.S. policymakers may claim democracy promotion and regime change are clearly different policies. But years of excessive pursuit of both to prop up U.S. hegemony mean Russia, China, and other non-democracies perceive them as part of a unified U.S. threat to their regimes. China and Russia’s fears for their regime security may be overwrought, but regardless, they encourage those states to collaborate more with each other; resist diplomacy with the United States on other issues, such as arms control; and crack down on dissidents and civil society. Viewing U.S.-backed democracy promotion as a tool of regime change, China and Russia do more to suppress democracy at home and work to undermine it abroad. The U.S. alleviating all of China and Russia’s apparent concerns is impossible and unnecessary; indeed, some regime insecurity is welcome for its restraining influence. But to advance its own interests, the United States should find ways to diminish piqued regime security fears. To reduce regime security fears, especially in China and Russia, the United States should separate democracy promotion from its grand strategy—democracy promotion is not a security priority. Democracy promotion is good but starts at home, by being an exemplar of liberal values.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Authoritarianism, Democracy, and Joe Biden
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Eurasia, Asia, and United States of America

10775. Thriving on Uncertainty: COVID-19-Related Opportunities for Terrorist Groups

Author:: Abdelhak Bassou and Youssef Tobi
Publication Date:: 06-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: IEMed/EuroMeSCo
Abstract:: The COVID-19 pandemic has had a cataclysmic impact on all aspects of the functioning of our world. The relevance of the possibility of the spread of a global virus with the spread of terrorism is not immediately obvious as it is difficult for a direct causal link to be scientifically established. However, taking into consideration how state responses and pre-existing socioeconomic grievances can be impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic can lead to innovative findings on how terrorist groups have adapted and conducted their activities during the pandemic. Analysing how the response of states impacts socioeconomic grievances and how it interacts with terrorist activities, the authors have found that the pandemic has impacted the operational and ideological frameworks of terrorist groups in multiple ways. COVID-19 was interpreted as an opportunity to spread extremist propaganda and ideology. The pandemic was presented as an act of God, punishing the ungodly and weakening enemy governments. In terms of propaganda, this virus was presented as a soldier of Allah and was used for online recruitment strategies. Concerning the operational front, poor state responses to the pandemic may have reinforced the legitimacy of terrorist groups among populations as they were continuously used as arguments advancing the agenda of these groups in their areas of intervention. In the first chapter, poor state responses and their interactions with terrorists’ activity was analysed especially in the Sahel region where the longstanding fragilities of states have been exacerbated by the pandemic. However, at this stage, a clear correlation between COVID-19 and the increase of terrorist activity is yet to be established. This property of COVID-19 as a crisis intensifier is a strong argument in the last chapter focusing on the Maghreb region: taking into account the various databases and academic viewpoints, this chapter examines the link between the growing popular discontent of the populations of Maghreb countries and the surge of the COVID-19 pandemic. As in the Sahel region, a potent and clear connection between COVID-19 and a possible increase of terrorist activities was contested. The role of state responses and their effect on the surge of terrorist activity was also addressed, especially in the second chapter of this study: for instance, when examining the changing recruitment strategies of terrorist groups in the Mashreq region, strengthening the resilience of the state and society was the viable strategy for countering violent extremism. For the European Union (EU) to achieve this endeavour, this study argues that the EU’s efforts need to work on remediating the vulnerability of fragile groups within societies and to consider the core governance fragilities leading to the surge of terrorist activities in the regions covered, namely the Sahel, the Mashreq and the Maghreb.
Topic:: Security, Terrorism, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Global Focus

10776. A Euro-Mediterranean Green Deal? Towards A Green Economy In The Southern Mediterranean

Author:: Julia Choucair Vizoso
Publication Date:: 06-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: IEMed/EuroMeSCo
Abstract:: The transition to a green economy requires nothing short of a major, structural transformation of economic models, domestic and global. The scale and pace of the change needed and the high level of uncertainty require bold commitments, cooperation, innovation and experimentation across sectors, stakeholders and countries – a fierce challenge for the globe, well beyond the shores of the Mediterranean. Each chapter in this study includes domain-specific and country- specific findings and proposes recommendations on how to accelerate the green economy in the particular context. Due to the social, economic and political heterogeneity in the region, it is obvious that a “one size fits all” solution is not suitable. Nonetheless, common findings and recommendations do emerge across the case studies.
Topic:: Climate Change, Environment, Green Technology, and Green Transition
Political Geography:: Africa, Europe, Middle East, and Mediterranean

10777. Great Expectations: Defining A Trans-Mediterranean Cybersecurity Agenda

Author:: Patryk Pawlak
Publication Date:: 08-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: IEMed/EuroMeSCo
Abstract:: European Union (EU) cooperation on cybersecurity with the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is conditioned by two competing claims. Due to the geographical proximity and broad security implications for the EU, the MENA region is one of the priorities of the EU’s external relations. Over the past two decades, and especially after the Arab Spring, the EU has invested significant resources to support the reforms in the region and align its policies with its own. At the same time, however, this ambition to cooperate closely with the region is often made more complicated by the situation on the ground. This is particularly the case of cyber resilience cooperation, where even despite overlapping interests – like the fight against cybercrime or improving the overall level of cybersecurity – the EU needs to exercise enhanced due diligence in order to avoid undermining the already fragile human rights protection in some of those countries. Reconciling these two elements – the willingness to engage in closer cooperation and the need for a cautious approach to cybersecurity cooperation – remains the key challenge. Against this background, the study aims to address two questions. First, to what extent are different initiatives and policies implemented across the region compatible with the EU’s own interests and values? Second, who are the key multipliers on cybersecurity in the region that could potentially align with the EU in certain aspects and help it achieve its policy objectives? Which of these relationships are mature enough or require further work in order to turn into concrete cooperation initiatives? These two sets of questions guide the discussion in each of the chapters.
Topic:: Security, Regional Cooperation, European Union, and Cybersecurity
Political Geography:: Africa, Europe, Middle East, North Africa, and MENA

10778. Central Banks at the Frontline of the COVID-19 crisis: Weathering the Storm, Spurring the Recovery. A View from the Mediterranean Countries

Author:: IEMed/EuroMeSCo
Publication Date:: 09-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: IEMed/EuroMeSCo
Abstract:: On 28 June 2021, the Banco de España, the Central Bank of Tunisia, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), and the European Institute of the Mediterranean (IEMed), organised the VI Conference of Mediterranean Central Banks. After the success of the last five Conferences held in Barcelona (2014, 2017), Rabat (2015), Tunis (2018) and Madrid (2019), this sixth edition counted with the first-ever participation of 10 Central Banks from the Mediterranean region, which were represented by their Governors, and the presence of high-level representatives of the European Central Bank. With the aim to foster a comprehensive dialogue on the economic and financial situation of the Mediterranean region, this VI Conference allowed organisers and participants to take a very important step forward in the ambition to strengthen cooperation ties and enhance knowledge-sharing among partner Mediterranean central banks, which is of outmost importance especially in times of crisis.
Topic:: Regional Cooperation, Finance, and Banking
Political Geography:: Mediterranean

10779. Socioeconomic Impacts of Climate Change in the Mediterranean

Author:: Octavi Quintana
Publication Date:: 11-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: IEMed/EuroMeSCo
Abstract:: The Mediterranean Basin enjoys very at- tractive geographical, climatic, and cultural features. It hosts a high-density population mainly in the coastal areas, of over 500 million people which has doubled in the last 40 years, and it is still increasing at a high pace. The region faces severe threats including water stress, impaired food production, food security, desertiﬁcation, severe pollution to mention just a few. These threats have been exacerbated in the last decades by increased demography, migration to urban areas, tourism (the ﬁrst tourist destination in the world), and very importantly, climate change. The Mediterranean suffers from an increase of temperature 20% higher than the world average. It is a real hotspot of climate change. The present monography, sponsored by the European Institute of the Mediterranean (IEMed), addresses the socioeconomic impact of climate change. There are a lot of studies on the biophysical impact of climate change. Its socioeconomic impact has been less studied probably because of its complexity. Important knowledge gaps do exist. The purpose of gathering knowledge on the socioeconomic impact of climate change is to advise decision-makers on the difﬁcult decisions to be taken to mitigate and adapt to climate change in a region facing severe threats that climate change only exacerbates. For decision-makers, the socioeconomic impact is more relevant than the biophysical impact of climate change.
Topic:: Climate Change, Environment, Pollution, and Socioeconomics
Political Geography:: Africa, Europe, Middle East, and Mediterranean

10780. Belgian Troops for Takuba: What’s at Stake?

Author:: Nina Wilen
Publication Date:: 12-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: Belgium is once again considering a significant troop contribution to one of the French-led military operations in the Sahel region – this time Task Force Takuba. Recent years’ discussions have stimulated debate about the risks and benefits linked to such a deployment but failed to result in any political consensus. Against this background, this brief answers the questions: What? Why? and So What? Belgium is once again considering a significant troop contribution to one of the French-led military operations in the Sahel region – this time Task Force Takuba. Recent years’ discussions have stimulated debate about the risks and benefits linked to such a deployment but failed to result in any political consensus. Against this background, this brief answers the questions: What? Why? and So What?
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Military Strategy, Military Intervention, and Humanitarian Crisis
Political Geography:: Africa, Europe, Belgium, and Sahel

10781. Building blocks for regional cooperation on Transitional Justice

Author:: Valerie Arnould
Publication Date:: 12-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:: This policy brief is a report on the expert workshop on AU-EU cooperation on transitional justice which was organised in October 2021 by Egmont – The Royal Institute for International Relations, the University of Leuven, the Belgian Federal Public Service Foreign Affairs, the European External Action Service and the African Union. The workshop sought to examine some of the challenges and lessons learned so far from AU and EU support for transitional justice. Discussions focused on four areas: transitional justice’s contribution to peacebuilding, the role of civil society in transitional justice, the integration of a socioeconomic dimension to transitional justice and the gendering of transitional justice.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, European Union, and Africa Union
Political Geography:: Africa and Europe

10782. Fragile States Index 2021 – Annual Report

Author:: Natalie Fiertz, Nate Haken, Patricia Taft, Emily Sample, and Wendy Wilson
Publication Date:: 05-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Fund for Peace
Abstract:: The Fragile States Index, produced by The Fund for Peace, is a critical tool in highlighting not only the normal pressures that all states experience, but also in identifying when those pressures are pushing a state towards the brink of failure. By highlighting pertinent issues in weak and failing states, The Fragile States Index—and the social science framework and software application upon which it is built—makes political risk assessment and early warning of conflict accessible to policy-makers and the public at large.
Topic:: Climate Change, Authoritarianism, Employment, Fragile States, Economy, Political stability, Conflict, Crisis Management, Peace, Resilience, COVID-19, Health Crisis, Early Warning, and Risk Assessment
Political Geography:: Africa, Europe, Middle East, Tajikistan, Germany, Armenia, Central America, Spain, Lebanon, Timor-Leste, North America, Ethiopia, Southeast Asia, El Salvador, Global Focus, and United States of America

10783. Economic Cracks in the Great Wall of China: Is China's Current Economic Model Sustainable?

Author:: Thomas J. Duesterberg
Publication Date:: 12-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Hudson Institute
Abstract:: Since Deng Xiaoping changed the trajectory of Chinese economic policy in 1978, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) has amassed an impressive record of economic growth. Many economists and political analysts, however, have come to question whether the top-down, mercantilist economic system in the PRC is sustainable in the medium to long term. This report explores the long-term structural and short-term economic problems in contemporary China, and in particular considers whether the Xi Jinping regime can avoid a financial crisis and effectively manage a transition to a stable new equilibrium. Structural issues include a looming downturn in the population and in the workforce; associated problems with an underdeveloped and underfinanced social safety and welfare net; income and regional inequality; environmental degradation; and domestic shortages of raw materials, agricultural production, and energy resources. The acute economic problems analyzed in the paper are a real estate bubble, the accumulation of dangerous levels of debt, dependence on external markets and financing, a difficult transition to a more consumer-oriented and less investment-driven economy, a crackdown on dynamic digital and financial sectors, a return to dominance of low-productivity state-owned enterprises and manufacturing firms, and weak governance from an increasingly authoritarian and unaccountable regime. Many of these acute issues result from Xi’s changes in policy since 2013. Xi’s turn toward greater economic self-reliance while maintaining mercantilist trade relations signals an effective decoupling from the US and allied economies. Some historical examples of bubble economies and financial crises are discussed as possible analogies to the current situation in China. One conclusion is that the Middle Kingdom will see a much slower-growing economy, which makes addressing the structural issues much more difficult. Inability or lack of determination to address the large array of issues may also undermine the political legitimacy of the current regime, which has been buttressed since 1978 by a rapid growth model based on debt, real estate, and investment, including infrastructure. The concluding section of this report offers policy tools that the United States and its allies could deploy to induce China to be a more responsible stakeholder in the world economy and a more reliable contributor to global sustainability. The tools considered in the study include trade policy and export controls, expanded oversight of foreign investment (both direct and portfolio investment), cooperation with allies on China policy, and defense-related sanctions. The paper also suggests that deployment of these tools could be a factor in weakening China’s economy as well as a means to convince its leadership to pursue less mercantilist and authoritarian global strategies, which are harmful to the US economy and to global stability.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, International Trade and Finance, Finance, Economy, and Economic Growth
Political Geography:: China and Asia

10784. Risking Apocalypse? Quantum Computers and the US Power Grid

Author:: Arthur Herman and Alexander Butler
Publication Date:: 12-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Hudson Institute
Abstract:: Millions without power; stores and banks shut down; vital services running on emergency generators, if at all; lines of hapless people awaiting food and water. The experience that the state of Texas underwent during February 2021 is only a preview of what we would all face should the United States’ ever-vulnerable energy grid be subject to a major cyberattack. For years, experts have been warning us of the national power grid’s vulnerability to attacks by such malicious actors as Russia, China, and Iran. A major task force within the US Department of Energy—the North American Energy Resiliency Model (NAERM)—has been tasked with determining how best to protect our energy grid from damage caused by not only natural disasters but also terrorism and cyber assaults. NAERM’s purview, however, encompasses only existing, conventional cyber threats and does not extend to quantum computer attacks, whose effects would be far more protracted and far worse than those of a conventional cyberattack. Indeed, the “smarter” a grid is, that is, the greater the extent to which it relies on computer supervision and control, the more vulnerable it would be to such an attack. The shutdown resulting from an attack by a future quantum computer, with its unprecedented power to easily decrypt existing encryption systems, could be the most catastrophic disaster our country has ever experienced. Using data supplied by global econometrics firm Oxford Economics, researchers at Hudson Institute’s Quantum Alliance Initiative are conducting a quantitative study designed to model the impact of a hypothetical future quantum cyberattack on the US power grid, and preliminary results indicate that protection of our power networks needs to be an urgent national priority. The study’s preliminary results offer important clues as to the areas on which policymakers should focus, not only to secure our power and energy grid from a large-scale quantum computer attack but also, in the event this were to be unsuccessful, to mitigate such an attack’s impact on our infrastructure, both in terms of economic and national security. As Hudson Institute founder Herman Kahn wrote in his 1962 book Thinking About the Unthinkable, “Even the most utopian of today’s visionaries will have to concede that the mere existence of modern technology involves a risk to civilization that would have been unthinkable twenty-five years ago.” Today, we must once again consider the unthinkable, not the nuclear apocalypse that haunted Kahn and his generation in the 1950s and 1960s but a quantum apocalypse that, if not as physically and permanently destructive as a nuclear attack, could cause catastrophic harm to our economy and society unless proper steps are taken now to mitigate such an attack’s attendant risk.
Topic:: Defense Policy, National Security, Science and Technology, Cybersecurity, and Electricity
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

10785. The Diminishing Path to Growth: Can Xi Jinping Avoid Crisis during China's Economic Transition

Author:: Thomas J. Duesterberg
Publication Date:: 12-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Hudson Institute
Abstract:: Since Deng Xiaoping changed the trajectory of Chinese economic policy in 1978, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) has amassed an impressive record of economic growth. Starting as a poverty-stricken agricultural society under rigid socialist rule, the country has grown steadily and rapidly to become the second largest economy in the world and carved out a growth path whose strength and longevity is historically unprecedented. As the 21st century has unfolded, the PRC has become a near peer competitor to the United States and other developed countries in terms of economic and political power. It is deploying this power in multiple ways that explicitly challenge US leadership in both the economic and global political spheres. If the PRC manages to maintain recent growth rates of around 6 percent per year, it will soon overtake the United States as the world’s largest economy and enhance its ability to challenge the global US leadership position, which has been a pillar of stability since World War II. The US and its allies had hoped that the PRC would become a responsible stakeholder in a liberal international order, but these hopes have been undermined in recent years by China’s increasingly apparent mercantilist economic policies, its aggressive expansion of political power, the resurgent dominance of state-owned enterprises, and the ever-more evident suppression of political liberties and traditional cultures in its sphere of influence. Many economists and political analysts, however, have come to question whether the top-down, mercantilist economic system in the PRC is sustainable in the medium to long term. A number of trends suggest weaknesses in the traditional economic and political structures that have propelled growth in China: growing private and public sector debt, adversely shifting demography, the return to prioritizing state-run enterprises over private firms, the continued reliance on an export-oriented economic system, growing weaknesses in the financial system, dependence on external commodity and technology suppliers, persistent economic and geographic inequality, and continued reliance on external financing. Recent economic data show that bankruptcies are growing, returns on investment are shrinking, and capital controls are contributing to unrealistic valuations of internal capital stock and housing stock. Additionally, regulations are stifling innovative sectors of the economy, and opaque and unregulated consumer financing products are undermining central bank monetary policy and contributing to over-leveraged balance sheets among consumers and small businesses. Consumer purchasing power that is consistently too weak to absorb domestic production, along with incentives to increase that production, has resulted in sustained trade surpluses that create a closed loop of increased investment in manufacturing and the need for growing markets. More recently, US-led efforts to deny China access to certain high-technology products and materials have underscored Chinese vulnerabilities in key sectors like telecommunications and semiconductors. This dynamic results in trade tensions with developing countries and in economically questionable investment in the developing world. These tensions, along with the undermining of developing world markets through subsidized PRC production, are increasingly causing costly disruptions in trade flows and placing pressure on the state banking system, which is the source of most external financing. If the mounting problems with the current Chinese economic model result in material slowing of growth or even sustained recession in the PRC, this would have substantial impact on the United States and its allies in two important ways. First, given that the PRC is the second largest (or in some measures the largest) economy in the world and has been an engine of growth for economies in Europe and the rest of Asia, slower growth or recession in China would likely lead to a global slowdown or recession. Second, because growth has immense political salience in the PRC—it justifies the authoritarian system of governance—a significant slowdown or recession could lead to political instability. Given Chinese nationalist rhetoric and revanchist ambitions toward Taiwan, political instability could in turn motivate risky military activities that escalate into confrontations with democratic, market-oriented countries. From the perspective of the United States, a slowdown could exacerbate the already serious trade and economic tensions, especially if nationalist forces in China sought to cast the US as the scapegoat for its internal problems. In sum, a better understanding of the weaknesses within the PRC growth model and its potential frailties would allow policymakers to craft targeted tools when needed to support US policy objectives, either economic or political, and to deter PRC aggression or the undermining of US economic interests. Policy tools such as trade tariffs, export controls, and limitations on direct investments and access to US financial markets could have material impact on Chinese performance. A more robust understanding of the impact of these tools would help the United States and its allies craft overall strategies to meet the Chinese economic and political challenge. Even while operating in a time frame longer than twelve months, many financial analysts have begun to describe the unfolding economic challenges in the PRC. The general public, including political opinion leaders and government analysts, have not generally understood the extent of the danger of economic crisis in China. Instead, the common assumption is that growth in the PRC, albeit a continuing economic threat to the US economy, is not in danger of faltering. This white paper takes a different view, exploring the structural weaknesses characterizing the current Chinese economic model and the recent policy changes initiated by President Xi Jinping. Its working assumption is that the combination of these two factors will result in a material weakening of the dynamic growth China has enjoyed since Deng Xiaoping set his country on a more Western-style growth path in the late 1970s. At a minimum, various factors will slow growth to levels more characteristic of modern developed economies; and at the extreme these factors may possibly lead to negative growth and weakening of the political strength that underpins the dictatorship of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP).
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Economics, Economic Growth, and Xi Jinping
Political Geography:: China and Asia

10786. Russian policy towards Central Asia 30 years after the collapse of the Soviet Union: Sphere of influence shrinking?

Author:: Kristiina Silvan
Publication Date:: 11-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: Russia views Central Asia as its sphere of influence and attempts to keep the five post-Soviet countries, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan, in its geopolitical orbit. Central Asian countries’ dependency on Russia is decreasing, albeit at a different pace in different policy spheres and geographical areas. This variation depends upon factors ranging from Moscow’s priorities, the presence and capability of Russia and other actors, and Central Asian domestic issues. Russia’s policy in Central Asia is rooted in bilateral relations, but from the early 2000s onwards, Moscow has sought to integrate the region’s states into multilateral organizations that it leads, primarily in the spheres of economy and security. Russian influence in the region is greatest in the security sphere and, due to the rise of China, smallest in the economic sector. People-to-people contacts remain strong as a result of the common Soviet past and current migration flows. Central Asian countries share Russia’s authoritarian outlook on politics. Russia remains a powerful player in Central Asia, but Moscow’s lack of a forward-looking strategy and its current great-power posturing threaten its dominance in the future.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Hegemony, Post-Soviet Space, and Influence
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Central Asia, and Asia

10787. Towards a data-centric great game: New challenges for small states in contemporary power politics

Author:: Valtteri Vuorisalo and Mika Aaltola
Publication Date:: 11-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: Technology is taking centre stage in power politics. In particular, the ability to refine and utilize data increasingly correlates with the transforming global distribution of power. The world is gravitating towards US and Chinese hubs of refined data. The convergence of data towards these two hubs accelerates the divergence of states into the haves and have-nots of data, and is likely to result in a realignment of partnership systems. Standards which enable data convergence also create forms of governance and regulatory spaces that challenge the shape and dynamic of traditional global governance. While recent Finnish security reports recognize the importance of new technologies and the cyber domain, data-centricity is not fully embraced either in policy or in practice. As the technology sector grows in significance, new forms of relationships between states as well as public and private organizations need to be envisioned and established.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Hegemony, Rivalry, and Power
Political Geography:: Global Focus

10788. Climate change and Finnish comprehensive security: Insights into enhanced preparedness

Author:: Emma Hakala
Publication Date:: 12-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: Climate change is already threatening the security and stability of societies in various ways, and the impacts will only be exacerbated in the future. The security consequences of climate change can be broadly categorised into direct, cascading and transition impacts. Direct impacts refer to the damage to people and infrastructure caused by extreme weather and other climate phenomena, while in cascading impacts climate change is combined with political, economic and cross-border effects. Transition impacts are linked to the adverse consequences of climate change mitigation and adaptation. It is increasingly imperative to comprehensively integrate climate change into foresight and preparedness activities. In addition to the identification of individual climate security impacts, it is also necessary to identify and continuously monitor broader political and economic developments relevant to climate security. Cooperation across national borders is important for advancing the climate security agenda. International organisations and individual countries should coordinate and exchange information in order to develop preparedness mechanisms and practices.
Topic:: Security, Climate Change, Environment, and Infrastructure
Political Geography:: Europe and Finland

10789. The geopolitics of the energy transition: Global issues and European policies driving the development of renewable energy

Author:: Marco Siddi
Publication Date:: 12-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: Fighting climate change makes a green energy transition imperative. The transition will have significant geopolitical consequences, notably a shift of power away from fossil fuel producers that do not adapt to a decarbonizing world. Access to critical minerals, rare earth elements and storage technology for renewable energy applications will be essential, and will determine the new geopolitics of energy. Some critical elements such as cobalt are only found in a few areas of the globe. Hydrogen is a carbon-free energy carrier that will allow the storage and dispatch of energy produced by intermittent renewable sources such as solar and wind. While hydrogen trade could lead to new dependencies, it will provide a back-up for the electricity system and strengthen energy security. Currently, China is a leader in securing resources for the energy transition. The Belt and Road Initiative could consolidate its position. As it strives to be a leader in the energy transition, the EU is focusing on securing relevant supply chains, deploying technology and developing hydrogen capacity. International cooperation will accelerate the transition and give the world a chance to avoid catastrophic climate change.
Topic:: Energy Policy, Environment, Green Technology, Renewable Energy, and Green Transition
Political Geography:: Europe and Global Focus

10790. Russia’s quest for digital competitiveness: The role of private businesses in securing state interests

Author:: Andrey Indukaev
Publication Date:: 12-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: The Russian leadership prioritizes digital technology for the country’s security and international standing, but also for its economic and technological success and development. These diverse goals are closely intertwined within the logic of geoeconomic competition. The Russian authorities have increased their involvement in the ICT sector over the years and this has led to the hybridization of business and state logic of action at all levels. While the state has an upper hand in the relationship, this does not exclude the possibility of mutually beneficial partnerships. Moscow-based start-up NtechLab’s close collaboration with the city of Moscow is a case in point. For private businesses, the Russian state’s proximity is a mixed blessing that creates business development opportunities but also major risks. These risks limit Russia’s capacity to make digital technology the driver of modernization of its economy.
Topic:: Business, Private Sector, Strategic Interests, and Digitalization
Political Geography:: Russia and Europe

10791. Imperial Mecca: An Interview with Prof. Michael Low

Author:: Michael Low and Mahdi Chowdhury
Publication Date:: 02-2021
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The Toynbee Prize Foundation
Abstract:: The hajj—that is, the annual pilgrimage to Mecca—is a pillar of faith for Muslims, but in the late nineteenth century, it was also a legal, epidemiological, and imperial frontier. In his long-anticipated Imperial Mecca: Ottoman Arabia and the Indian Ocean Hajj, Michael Christopher Low offers an account how that “very heart of Islam”—Mecca and the Hijaz—came to straddle “two imperial worlds.” Imperial Mecca charts how the British Empire came to challenge Ottoman imperial legitimacy and, subsequently, affect its pilgrimage administration, its relationship to non-Ottoman Muslims, and inspire administrative anxieties around the semi-autonomous province of the Hijaz. Since his widely-read 2008 article, “Empire and the Hajj,” Low has been a leading contributor in the now flourishing field of hajj studies. Based on archives largely based in Istanbul and London, Imperial Mecca consolidates nearly fifteen years of research, reflection, and labour and reasserts an understudied “Ottoman sense of space, place, population, environment, and territory back [into] our understanding of the transimperial hajj.” Michael Christopher Low is an Assistant Professor of History at Iowa State University and, presently, a Senior Humanities Research Fellow at NYU Abu Dhabi. Along with the publication of Imperial Mecca, he is also the co-editor of the recently published volume, The Subjects of Ottoman International Law. In our interview, we discuss—among many topics—Low’s intellectual and biographical journey as a historian, Ottoman archives and historiography, and the present and future of hajj studies.
Topic:: Imperialism, Islam, Religion, History, Ottoman Empire, and British Empire
Political Geography:: Britain, Mecca, Arabian Peninsula, and Indian Ocean

10792. Money and Colonialism in Canada: An Interview with Brian Gettler

Author:: Brian Gettler and Martin Crevier
Publication Date:: 06-2021
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The Toynbee Prize Foundation
Abstract:: On 30 April 2013, live from the International Space Station, the Canadian astronaut Chris Hadfield unveiled a new $5 banknote. It featured some of Canada’s contribution to space exploration. Here the country is imagined as a modern state, willing to contribute to multilateral scientific endeavours for the common good of humankind. Earth and the Great Lakes appear in the background, rendered from photographs supplied by the Department of Natural Resources. Having developed its own landmass, the image seems to imply, Canada now projects its knowhow to the confines of space. The twinned themes of internationalism and development are reinforced on the other side of the note. There features Wilfrid Laurier, a prime minister remembered for furthering an independent Canadian foreign policy within the British Empire and as an advocate of state-led Western settlement. If unlikely, Laurier and space exploration appear in the end an effective association for a banknote part of the “Frontier Series.” Money, we might glean from this anecdote, is far from a commonplace and benign object. It carries political significance and power even beyond the symbols emblazoned upon notes and coins. Yet money and currencies seldom emerge as a focal point in histories of colonialism and empire; normally they are an accessory to express value, a tool of exchange, or a medium of early encounters. In Colonialism’s Currency: Money, State, and First Nations in Canada, 1820–1950, Brian Gettler sets out to correct this narrative. He shows how money, in its materiality and from the practices surrounding it, can be conceived of as a political force that reshapes space, mediates the colonial project, extends sovereignty, and modulates behaviours. It is for him, more precisely, a technology that allows us to trace the emergence of the colonial state in what becomes Canada, as well as its complex and changing relationships with Indigenous peoples. Brian Gettler is an Assistant Professor at the University of Toronto. He has just published Colonialism’s Currency with McGill-Queen’s University Press. In our conversation, which has been edited for length and clarity, we discussed his new book, his historical interests, and how the history of currency in British North America can inform larger conversations about empire and colonialism.
Topic:: History, Colonialism, Empire, Money, Currency, Indigenous, and First Nations
Political Geography:: Canada and North America

10793. A More Expansive Atlantic History of the Americas: An Interview with Jorge Cañizares-Esguerra

Author:: Jorge Cañizares-Esguerra and Fernando Gómez Herrero
Publication Date:: 08-2021
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: The Toynbee Prize Foundation
Abstract:: Jorge Cañizares-Esguerra’s work intermingles the colonial histories of the Americas—the United States and Latin America. Cañizares-Esguerra’s expansive historical project is Americanist, yet not in the usual sense of the term. What “America” historically is must engage with a rich contradiction of meaning-making narratives generated by a plurality of social agents. Cañizares-Esguerra resists national containment of such historical narratives and provocatively engages with the early modern and early colonial period (1500s) and with the Enlightenment and nineteenth-century liberalism alike. Themes of belief and faith, of knowledge and science, among a variety of historical agents and subjectivities, feature prominently within his work. This interview explores Cañizares-Esguerra’s Atlanticism and his cautions regarding certain global history tendencies. Cañizares Esguerra details his current project, Radical Spanish Empire. His aim is to historicize, to radicalize, to Americanize (expansively understood), and to show that colonial Massachusetts is unintelligible without Puebla or Tlaxcala in colonial Mexico, that colonial Virginia makes no sense without its Andean and Peruvian counterparts, and that Calvinists should be understood alongside Franciscans. Cañizares-Esguerra wants to pluralize the historical narrative outside the conventional liberal moulds of modernity in the Americas. In this, he catches me by surprise when he negates that plural modernities constitute the telos of his enterprise and when he gives the cold shoulder to cultural studies and postcolonial/decolonial studies. The main intellectual thrust of our discussion regarded the intellectual inevitability of native and foreign entanglements, historical and contemporary, and the political desirability that cuts across the “Anglo” and “Latin” divide, at least initially. He offers an expansive Atlantic History, along provocative Iberianizing lines, mixing the “Anglo” and “Latin” categories. It serves as an invitation to go beyond American histories’ extant boundaries, of which there will be many more than two.
Topic:: Imperialism, History, Culture, Colonialism, and Spanish Empire
Political Geography:: South America, Central America, and North America

10794. Rethinking EU economic governance: Social investment

Author:: Laura Rayner
Publication Date:: 12-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:: COVID-19 has led to more inequality and poverty in Europe. Together with the accelerating climate crisis and ageing population, massive additional investments in education, healthcare and social infrastructure will be needed to maintain Europe's social protection systems, ease the negative impact of the digital and green transitions, and protect the Union's future prosperity. Unfortunately, the EU's current economic governance model does not leave much room for member states to make these kinds of investments in human capital - also called 'social investment'. This third Policy Brief in a series on reforming EU economic governance sets out five proposals to promote the role of social investment: Alter the pace of fiscal consolidation to be in line with economic growth; Reassess the accounting procedure for public investments, which can, in the long run, split up government investment from government spending and improve the quality of public finances overall; Establish a Future Investment Fund, whereby public investment would be excluded from the calculations of both headline and structural deficits; Reform the European Semester in a way that incorporates the lessons of austerity and prioritises social outcomes alongside fiscal and public administration reforms; Prioritise what matters to citizens - even if it challenges the existing economic orthodoxy.
Topic:: Poverty, Governance, European Union, COVID-19, and Social Investment
Political Geography:: Europe

10795. EU regions with legislative powers: Exploring the appetite, capacity and direction for EU policy influencing and delivery

Author:: Alison Hunter, Perle Petit, and Marialena Pantazi
Publication Date:: 12-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:: How can EU regions with legislative powers amplify their presence through the RLEG initiative and play a stronger role in EU decion-making? Made up of 16 regions with legislative powers, the RLEG initiative aims to contribute to and improve the functioning of EU multilevel governance systems. The joint initiative also aims to bring citizens closer to the EU, such that a stronger ‘line of sight’ is generated between them and the EU’s multilevel governance system. This requires that the role of regions with legislative powers is better acknowledged by key partners. However, that recognition is not currently present, which directly impacts the role RLEG can play in EU decision-making. This report recommends that RLEG improves the positioning of their agenda for greater coherence and visibility so as to foster improved dialogue with decision-makers.
Topic:: European Union, Legislation, Autonomy, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:: Europe, Spain, and Basque Country

10796. Dealing with the Neighbours: The case for an affiliate membership of the European Union and a new Security Council

Author:: Andrew Duff
Publication Date:: 12-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:: Brexit is proving to be even more troublesome than expected, giving rise to a gradual softening of British public opinion towards the EU. Any future UK government is likely to want to renegotiate parts of the separation deal that Boris Johnson struck with the EU. Reconciliation between Britain and Europe will take time and need careful calibration, however. The EU should prepare for this constructively and use the opportunity of a British renegotiation to review all its other association agreements - none of which are without defect. The question of governance lies at the heart of the problems which impair the EU’s relations with its neighbours. The EEA and Swiss arrangements are in any case due for overhaul and upgrading. The EU’s traditional enlargement policy to the east and south has foundered, and it would be better if this were admitted openly. Not only are candidate countries unable to meet the demands of membership, but the EU itself is too weak to take on the burden of new members. Instead, a new category of affiliate membership should be written into the EU treaties. Affiliation should allow the EU to develop close economic and cultural partnerships with its neighbours in a democratic fashion. Affiliate states would enjoy greater access to the EU institutions than is permitted under any of the current association agreements. Affiliate membership would also be available as an option for any current EU member state which, like the UK, chose not to adhere to the goal of an ever closer union. Such differentiated integration of the wider Europe will require the EU to build stronger federal government at the centre. The new structure should also be underpinned by the establishment of a European Security Council combining EU member and affiliate states with NATO — including Canada and the US — in regular strategic and operational decisions to protect Western security. The French presidency in the first half of 2022 should take the necessary first steps. The Conference on the Future of Europe might consider these proposals.
Topic:: Security, Governance, European Union, and Brexit
Political Geography:: United Kingdom and Europe

10797. Arms Control and Strategic Stability with Russia: The View from Europe

Author:: Jon B. Wolfsthal and Andrea Kendall-Taylor
Publication Date:: 12-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for a New American Security (CNAS)
Abstract:: The United States and its NATO partners have successfully managed the challenge of deterrence and reassurance for generations. The risk of conflict, even nuclear conflict, with Russia remains all too real, especially as political and military competition continues to escalate, and as new technologies and capabilities come online that could further raise the risk of direct military confrontation between the United States and Russia. Ensuring clear, consistent, and constructive communication among officials and experts within the transatlantic security community about the potential dangers posed by Russian behavior, and how to effectively pursue greater stability together, will be essential if the alliance is to remain successful in the decades to come. The following assessment is informed by conversations among such experts committed to that goal. The memo identifies European allies and partners’ views, interests, and concerns about America’s emerging dialogue with Russia on arms control and strategic stability. It is intended to inform U.S. approaches to alliance management and consultation with European allies as well as potential talks and negotiations with the Russian Federation. Although the expert discussions occurred before Russia’s military buildup on Ukraine’s border resumed in October 2021, the insights the working group produced remain relevant so long as the U.S.-Russia arms control and strategic stability dialogue persists.
Topic:: NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Strategic Stability, and Dialogue
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, North America, and United States of America

10798. Monitoring Online Political Advertising: A Toolkit

Author:: Barbara Jouan Stonestreet and Michael Baldassaro
Publication Date:: 11-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Carter Center
Abstract:: During an electoral process, electoral actors, whether contestants or noncontestants, have the right to advertise political ideas in accordance with the right of expression. However, political advertising may be subject to reasonable limitations through regulations imposed by domestic law, including who can run political advertisements, when and where they may run advertisements, restrictions on advertising expenditure levels, and reporting and disclosure requirements to ensure transparency, accountability, and a level playing field. Increasingly, election contestants and noncontestants are using social media platforms to advertise political ideas.
Topic:: Politics, Elections, Internet, and Digitalization
Political Geography:: Global Focus

10799. The pandemic will not stop us: The impact of COVID-19 on women’s peace activism in Colombia, the Philippines, South Sudan and Ukraine

Author:: Anne Marie Goetz
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Research Paper
Institution:: Global Network of Women Peacebuilders (GNWP)
Abstract:: In Fall 2020, a rapid review of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on women peace activists in Colombia, South Sudan, the Philippines and Ukraine was conducted as part of an ongoing partnership between the Global Network of Women Peacebuilders (GNWP) and the New York University Center for Global Affairs (NYU CGA).1 The review found that the crisis has delayed implementation of peace agreements, in particular their gender provisions, shifted women’s peace advocacy to online spaces, impacted the membership composition of women’s peace groups, and diverted women’s organizational energies into humanitarian action to support community resilience.
Topic:: Gender Issues, Women, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Africa, Europe, Ukraine, Asia, Philippines, Colombia, South America, and South Sudan

10800. Women, Peace, and Security and Human Rights in the Digital Age: Opportunities and risks to advance women’s meaningful participation and protect their rights

Author:: Anne-Marie Buzatu, Agnieszka Fal Dutra Santos, Dinah Lakehal, Panthea Pourmalek, and Micheala Zelenanska
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Research Paper
Institution:: Global Network of Women Peacebuilders (GNWP)
Abstract:: The need to address the persistent barriers to women’s use of ICTs for peacebuilding has never been more urgent. Much of the existing literature on ICTs and mediation is produced for and focused on mediators and how the ICTs may be helpful to them. To complement the existing analyses and resources, the Global Network of Women Peacebuilders (GNWP), in partnership with the ICT4Peace Foundation and with support from the Directorate of International Law of the Swiss Federal Department of Foreign Affairs (FDFA), developed this policy brief (#DigitalizingPeace), focused on women activists and peacebuilders. The brief explores how women can use ICTs to advance their work and how international organizations, governments, and private companies can support them.
Topic:: International Cooperation, Women, Peace, and Peacebuilding
Political Geography:: Global Focus

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COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS