- CIAO Search Results

16201. Through the Looking Glass: The Nordic-Baltic Region and the Changing Role of the United States

Author:: Piret Kuusik
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
Abstract:: Strengths and power come from within. While the US still dominates in terms of power of attraction, its fraught domestic situation undermines its global standing. This analysis focuses on the countries in the Nordic-Baltic region – Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Latvia, Lithuania and Sweden – and assesses how they are adapting to President Donald Trump administration’s foreign policy and the changing role of the US in the world. President Trump has stirred the current world order and the US foreign policy. Previous long-term and broad US foreign policy has become narrow and shallow. Immediate gain has become the new measure of success in US external relations; setting the direction and interests of US foreign policy. To the region and Europe at large, this has been a shake-up which consequences have not been thoroughly analysed and debated in the public space. The analysis hopes to serve as an opener to a broader debate in Estonia and in the Nordic-Baltic region about the US’s changing role and the following consequences. The analysis desires to advance regional cooperation and shared thinking; helping policy-makers, journalists, researchers and politicians to contribute to the future discussions.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, European Union, Transatlantic Relations, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:: Europe, United States of America, and Baltic States

16202. Estonia’s Partners in the EU Coalition Machinery: Maximising Influence in the EU through Coalition-building

Author:: Kristi Raik and Josef Janning
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
Abstract:: This policy paper examines Estonia’s partners in the European Union with the aim of identifying ways to enhance its influence on policy-making. Effective coalition-building is also important for the EU as a whole, since it can improve the Union’s capacity to take decisions and act. The paper highlights that: Estonia has a relatively strong position in the EU, considering its small size and limited resources. It is particularly well-connected with the Nordic-Baltic partners and should seek ways to use this grouping more effectively as a means to reach out to larger member states and shape decisions in the Union. The main challenge is to build stronger links with France and Germany, something that has become all the more important due to Brexit. Teaming up with other countries that are better connected to Berlin and Paris, such as Finland, Sweden, the Netherlands and Belgium, is one way to pursue this goal. It is too early to draw conclusions about the impact of the latest change of government in Estonia on the country’s influence and image among partners in the EU. However, the research interviews show some indications of a weakened position. Estonia should avoid losing its reputation as a results-oriented member state that takes into consideration the priorities of others while pursuing its own interests in a constructive manner.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Regional Cooperation, and European Union
Political Geography:: Europe and Estonia

16203. When Russia Goes to War: Motives, Means and Indicators

Author:: Konrad Muzyka
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
Abstract:: Since Vladimir Putin declared the fall of the Soviet Union to be the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the century, prompting concerns that Moscow would seek to rebuild its influence by conquering territories on its borders, Russia has deployed combat troops into Georgia, Ukraine and Syria, and inserted private military companies into the Central African Republic, Libya, Mozambique, South Sudan and Venezuela. But there is little consensus among analysts about the meaning of Russia’s military behaviour, or how far it might go in pursuing its interests. Is it trying to rebuild a version of the former Soviet Union? Does it have the will and capability to go to war? Under what circumstances might it be ready to commit combat troops? And how do these questions relate to its immediate neighbourhood, in particular to the Baltic region? This analysis examines Russia’s fundamental motives for going to war in the ‘near abroad’, describes how Russia might wage war in the Baltic states, and identifies some of the indicators that might suggest it is preparing to do so.
Topic:: War, Military Affairs, Geopolitics, and Private Sector
Political Geography:: Russia, Ukraine, Georgia, Syria, and Baltic States

16204. Russian Naval Forces in the Syrian War

Author:: Igor Delanoe
Publication Date:: 10-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Foreign Policy Research Institute
Abstract:: Since the late 2000s, the Russian Federation has expanded its naval footprint in the Eastern Mediterranean, and even resurrected its Mediterranean Squadron in 2013. The backbone of this operational squadron is provided by units coming from the Black Sea Fleet, complemented by vessels from other Russian naval formations (namely, the Northern, Baltic, and Pacific Fleets, as well as the Caspian Sea Flotilla) on a rotational basis. As the Russian State Armament Program for the period 2011-2020 was implemented, the Black Sea Fleet received new warships and new diesel-powered submarines. Consequently, by the outbreak of the Syrian crisis, Moscow’s naval footprint in the Mediterranean had already been reconstituted. Yet, since the mid-2010s, a structural change occurred in the Mediterranean Squadron’s order of battle. The Squadron has morphed qualitatively and quantitatively, and has become more capable. Featuring fewer ex-Soviet large platforms and more modern green water units, this naval task force has been assigned mainly a defensive objective: locally counterbalance navies of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and protect Russia’s southern flank from perceived instability emanating from the Mediterranean’s southern shore, in the context of the Arab Spring. Moreover, Moscow’s direct military involvement in the war in Syria has provided the Mediterranean Squadron with a new purpose while highlighting a conventional deterrence mission.
Topic:: NATO, Armed Forces, Navy, and Syrian War
Political Geography:: Russia, Eurasia, Middle East, and Syria

16205. Russian Aerial Operations

Author:: Anton Lavrov
Publication Date:: 10-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Foreign Policy Research Institute
Abstract:: Before the start of the military intervention in Syria in 2015, even top Russian generals were uncertain what the result would be. Shortly before the start of the intervention, the Russian Aerospace Forces (RuAF) received hundreds of new airplanes and helicopters and new “smart” precision weapons. Almost all of them had never been tested in real combat. The pilots and commanders also did not have combat experience and were trained by textbooks filled with outdated concepts and tactics. The five years of war in Syria have been the most intense period of transformation for the RuAF since the war in Afghanistan in the 1980s. The Russian military not only gained an unprecedented amount of experience, but also made substantial improvements in tactics and strategy.
Topic:: Military Affairs, Military Intervention, Conflict, Syrian War, and Air Force
Political Geography:: Russia, Eurasia, Middle East, and Syria

16206. The Russian Ground-Based Contingent in Syria

Author:: Charles Bartles and Lester Grau
Publication Date:: 10-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Foreign Policy Research Institute
Abstract:: The Syrian Civil War produces a new set of problems involving extended urban combat, intense fights for key resources (oil fields, water, and lines of communication and supply), conventional combat among irregular units, ethnic and religious cleansing, a large number of foreign combatants with varying motivations, and contending outside powers fighting a proxy engagement. The Russian Federation is not an expeditionary power, and its entry into Syria on the side of the regime has strained its logistical resources. From the beginning of the Syrian campaign, it was clear that Russian involvement was initially envisaged to be through the Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS). Although the Syrian government was on the verge of collapse, and the Syrian military was on its hind legs and a shell of its former self, there was a sufficient number of Syrian ground units that were mission capable. With this understanding, the VKS was to be the principal supplier of Russian combat power aimed at disruption of the command and control and leadership of the groups fighting the Bashar al-Assad regime through the provision of reconnaissance and target destruction. In particular, Russia’s priority was the destruction of the Western-backed, moderate opposition groups, since it saw these as the greatest immediate threat to Assad. The Islamic State (ISIS) and other Sunni extremist groups were targeted, but sat lower on Russia’s priority list. As with other such operations, «mission creep” soon resulted in Russia’s involvement quickly expanding past the provision of aerospace support to planning, and, in some cases, conducting ground operations. General Valery Gerasimov, Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Russia, confirmed this expansion of Russian involvement in a December 2017 interview. Russia’s ground-based contingent in the Syrian campaign involves a diverse set of forces and capabilities. Some of the key features of this expanded ground force mission included a Russian model of military advisors, integrated and modernized fires, mobility and countermobility operations, a featured role for military police, use of coastal defense, spetznaz, and private military company (PMC) forces. Russian ground forces have benefitted from the opportunity to provide combat experience to a large number of professional soldiers, conduct battlefield testing of new systems and observe the impact of different terrain on tactics. The forces opposing the Syrian government provide a different opponent than the “enemy” encountered in normal Russian peacetime training and much of the “Syrian experience” is discussed and dissected in Russian professional military journals.
Topic:: Armed Forces, Military Intervention, and Syrian War
Political Geography:: Russia, Eurasia, Middle East, and Syria

16207. Narrowing Interests in the Middle East: Planning for Great Power Competition

Author:: Aaron Stein
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Foreign Policy Research Institute
Abstract:: The United States dramatically increased the commitment of troops and military equipment to a string of permanent bases in the Middle East after the collapse of the Soviet Union and the defeat of the Iraqi army after its 1991 invasion of Kuwait. In the nearly two decades since the Al Qaeda-linked attacks on September 11, 2001, the United States has deepened its military and political commitment to the region, following the decisions to invade Afghanistan and Iraq, and then to intervene militarily in Syria. The Barack Obama and Donald Trump administrations have sought to focus more on Asia, but have failed to disentangle the United States from conflicts in the Middle East. This report assumes that the United States will retain an overwhelming interest in ensuring close alliances and partnerships with America’s transatlantic allies (North Atlantic Treaty Organization) and close partners and allies in the Indo-Pacific even if President Trump is re-elected in 2020. It also assumes that the United States will begin to focus primarily on Asia, with the Russian Federation being considered of secondary importance to the rise of the People’s Republic of China. Given these twin assumptions, the role of American forces and Washington’s policy priorities in the Middle East require new thinking about how to wind down wars that are draining American resources and to re-allocate finite, high-demand assets that could be leveraged for operations in Europe or the Indo-Pacific. This report proposes an interlinked political and military policy that would allow for the United States to retain a robust presence in the Middle East, but in a way that would de-escalate tensions with the Islamic Republic of Iran, and alter how U.S. forces are deployed around the world.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Power Politics, and Military Intervention
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, Iraq, Middle East, Syria, and United States of America

16208. Making Sense of the Sadrists: Fragmentation and Unstable Politics

Author:: Benedict Robin-D'Cruz and Renad Mansour
Publication Date:: 03-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Foreign Policy Research Institute
Abstract:: Iraq’s Sadrist movement, led by populist Shi’i cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, has been at the heart of Iraqi politics since 2003. The movement’s political strategies have shifted dramatically during this time, encompassing militant insurgency, sectarian violence, electoral politics, and reform-oriented street protests. Consequently, despite their prominence, the Sadrists’ shifting positions mean they remain one of the most complex and frequently misunderstood movements in Iraq. This is further compounded by the near-total absence of engagement between the Sadrists and Western, particularly American, governments. As Sadr has changed his movement’s politics again, this time toward a counter-protest stance, U.S. policymakers are once more grappling with the dilemmas posed by a movement that is both powerful and obscure.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Politics, Non State Actors, and Muqtada al-Sadr
Political Geography:: Iraq and Middle East

16209. The Future of the Kurdistan Region after the Defeat of ISIS and the Failure of the 2017 Independence Referendum

Author:: Pishko Shamsi
Publication Date:: 04-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Foreign Policy Research Institute
Abstract:: In 2017, the Kurdistan Region of Iraq held an independence referendum, which triggered severe backlash, including the loss of control over the oil-rich city of Kirkuk. The backlash from the independence referendum prompted the regional government (Kurdistan Regional Government) to urgently shift policy and re-engage with Baghdad. Since then, the region has recovered politically and has implemented a pragmatic strategy to revitalize the economy and internal affairs. The KRG also launched diplomatic initiatives to restore relations with Iran and Turkey, and has pursued a policy of neutrality to manage the Region’s myriad of crises. Moreover, the KRG has pursued tactical alliances with Iraqi political parties to secure short-term gains, including the resumption of budget transfers from Baghdad. The KRG’s deal-making with Baghdad, however, has fallen short of translating into a sustainable policy, and many of the gains are fragile and dependent on Baghdad’s changing political scene. Without a long-term strategy, the KRG’s new leadership is unlikely to be able to deliver much needed institutional reforms to help curb corruption, improve governance, and enhance transparency in public affairs. And while the KRG has committed to reform politically, it remains unclear if it will bring about meaningful change and address structural challenges, such as entrenched crony networks, rentier economics, and partisan control over the public sector and security forces.The views expressed in this article are those of the author alone and do not necessarily reflect the position of the Foreign Policy Research Institute, a non-partisan organization that seeks to publish well-argued, policy-oriented articles on American foreign policy and national security priorities.
Topic:: Islamic State, Autonomy, and Referendum
Political Geography:: Iraq, Middle East, and Kurdistan

16210. “Engaged Opportunism”: Russia’s Role in the Horn of Africa

Author:: Samuel Ramani
Publication Date:: 07-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Foreign Policy Research Institute
Abstract:: After spending nearly three decades as a marginal player in the Horn of Africa, the Russian Federation has made significant progress towards recapturing its great power status in the region. Russia has engaged with all countries in the Horn of Africa and refused to take sides in the region’s most polarizing conflicts, so Moscow can be best described as an “engaged opportunist” on the Horn of Africa. Russia is principally focused on establishing itself as the region’s leading arms vendor, but prospectively, has one eye on constructing a Red Sea base. Russia’s resurgence in the Horn of Africa has generally dovetailed with the People’s Republic of China’s regional aspirations, but has placed it increasingly at odds with France and the United States. Looking ahead, Russia’s ability to link its Horn of Africa strategy to its aspirations in the Middle East will shape the future trajectory of its involvement in the region. The views expressed in this article are those of the author alone and do not necessarily reflect the position of the Foreign Policy Research Institute, a non-partisan organization that seeks to publish well-argued, policy-oriented articles on American foreign policy and national security priorities.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Engagement
Political Geography:: Africa, Russia, Eurasia, and Horn of Africa

16211. Russia’s Struggle to Gain Influence in Southeast Asia

Author:: Bennett Murray
Publication Date:: 08-2020
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Foreign Policy Research Institute
Abstract:: As the United States and People’s Republic of China jostle for influence among member-states of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), the Russian Federation has also declared the bloc a priority. Southeast Asian nations, in turn, would like third powers to counterbalance Beijing and Washington in the region. However, Russia has not made a huge impression in the bloc since its first summit with ASEAN in 2005. Economic success has been mostly limited to bilateral trade centered around arms sales, while security partnerships have not been forthcoming. Part of the problem is that Russia lacks historic ties in its former Cold War rivals, which are also ASEAN’s largest economic powerhouses, to lean on. More crucially, Southeast Asian nations perceive Moscow as deferential to Beijing’s geopolitical ambitions in the region.
Topic:: International Trade and Finance, Geopolitics, Soft Power, and Economic Diplomacy
Political Geography:: Russia, Eurasia, Asia, and Southeast Asia

16212. The Hunt for Mobile Missiles: Nuclear Weapons, AI, and the New Arms Race

Author:: Paul Bracken
Publication Date:: 09-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Foreign Policy Research Institute
Abstract:: This report examines the increasing ability of major powers to destroy moving targets, in particular, land-based mobile missiles. Yet, at the same time, it analyzes something much broader and more fundamental. Technology has changed the use of force in peace and war. These changes stem from the growing importance of advanced technologies like AI, cyber, drones, cloud computing, data analytics, and hypersonic missiles.[1] These are increasingly becoming foundational technologies for new mission areas and strategies. One of these in particular is the focus of this report: locating and destroying mobile targets. The hunt for mobile missiles, seen in this broader way, is an exemplar of advanced technologies used in national security.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, National Security, Nuclear Weapons, Science and Technology, Weapons, and Artificial Intelligence
Political Geography:: Global Focus

16213. Georgia’s Doomed Deep-Sea Port Ambitions: Geopolitics of the Cancelled Anaklia Project

Author:: Maximilian Hess and Maia Otarashvili
Publication Date:: 10-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Foreign Policy Research Institute
Abstract:: Georgia has long sought to take advantage of its strategically important location and establish itself as a significant transit hub connecting Europe and Asia. This endeavor has been slowly advanced by an array of innovative economic reforms, as well as some successful, smaller infrastructure and development projects. However, it has also been marked by repeated failures in making larger-scale initiatives happen. Despite its 190-mile-long Black Sea coastline, Georgia still does not have a deep-sea port, and enjoys very limited overall maritime capacity. This shortcoming poses a major impediment on the country’s aspirations of becoming a significant hub for the Eurasian transit system.
Topic:: Infrastructure, Geopolitics, Maritime, and Port
Political Geography:: Eurasia and Georgia

16214. A Plan to End the War in Syria: Competing with Russia in the Levant

Author:: Aaron Stein
Publication Date:: 11-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Foreign Policy Research Institute
Abstract:: The United States has an interest in allowing the Russian Federation to “win” an outright victory in Syria, so long as it secures from Moscow an agreement that is favorable to the Syrian Kurds, builds in negative consequences for an external actor targeting the Syrian Democratic Forces, and establishes a “deconflict plus”-type mechanism to continue to target Islamic State- and Al Qaeda-linked individuals in Syria. A forward-looking policy that the incoming Biden administration could consider is to deprioritize the nascent threat of the Islamic State as a key factor in driving U.S. national security strategy, and instead focus more intently on long-term competition with great powers. This approach would seek to shape how Moscow spends finite defense dollars—at a time of expected global defense cuts stemming from the COVID-19 pandemic—in ways that are advantageous to the United States. It also would seek to limit the cost of the U.S. presence in Syria—to include secondary and opportunity costs not accounted for in a basic cost breakdown of the U.S. war against the Islamic State. This approach is not without risk, particularly from a nascent Islamic State insurgency in Russian-controlled territory, but seeks to match U.S. strategic priorities with action and to impose upon a long-term competitor the costs of victory for its intervention in Syria.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Foreign Policy, War, Syrian War, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:: Russia, Middle East, Syria, and United States of America

16215. Economic Interests, Political Conflicts, and External Interferences: The Complex Interlocking of the Libyan Crisis

Author:: Karim Mezran and Alessia Melcangi
Publication Date:: 11-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Foreign Policy Research Institute
Abstract:: In the last days of September 2020, Libya’s oil industry seemed to be on the verge of restarting its production after Gen. Khalifa Haftar announced the reopening of the oil fields and terminals that he had occupied and closed in the course of his offensive against Tripoli. The main damage caused by Haftar’s blockade is the dramatic plummet of oil production to less than 100,000 barrels per day (bpd) from the previous 1.2 million. The importance of the oil and gas industry in Libya cannot be underestimated since it is the main driver of the Libyan economy and accounts for about 60% of the country’s GDP. Oil production revenues and the dividends from oil sales are one of the main causes of the conflict that has been continuously ravaging the country since the fall of Muammar Qadhafi in 2011. The announced reopening represents good news that bodes well not only for a real resumption of political talks between the warring parties, but also for a more general improvement of the economic and social condition in the country, which is now on the verge of collapse. After the January 2020 blockade, the quick shutdown of oil sales led to a budget collapse: In April 2020, oil production data showed a drop of more than 80% with a loss of more than $10 billion in oil revenues. The economic impact of this stoppage directly hit the Tripoli-based National Oil Corporation (NOC), preventing the company from fulfilling contracts with international oil companies. After so many years of civil war, it has become evident that competition among various actors is principally over the country’s resources and control of its financial institutions. According to the 2015 UN-backed Libyan Political Agreement, the Tripoli government headed by Fayez Sarraj retains control of the Tripoli-based NOC and oversees the allocation of state funds deposited in the Tripoli-based Central Bank — these are the two channels through which oil revenues can flow legally and the only two institutions recognized by the UN Security Council. Haftar and the Eastern government accuse Tripoli of mismanaging hydrocarbon revenues and state funds, using them to fund militias backing the Government of National Accord (GNA), and failing to carry out reforms to stabilize the economy. For this reason, the Eastern authorities demand a change of leadership in both institutions: The Central Bank and the NOC. Indeed, the problem for Haftar has always been that he controlled oil production, but not oil revenues. After almost a year locked in a stalemate, the situation on the battlefield was reversed in April 2020. Thanks to Turkey’s military support, the GNA was able to counterattack and defeat the Haftar-controlled Libyan National Army (LNA) and push them back to the gates of the city of Sirte near the “oil crescent,” a coastal area home to most of Libya’s oil export terminals. The ceasefire proposed by the GNA at the end of August 2020 and accepted by the Tobruk parliament and its spokesman, Aguila Saleh, has restarted the political dialogue between the conflicting parties. Meanwhile, the malcontent of the population in both Tripoli and Benghazi, due to the deterioration of living conditions and lack of economic reforms, led to protests and demonstrations in both cities.
Topic:: Security, Diplomacy, Economy, Conflict, and Proxy War
Political Geography:: Libya and North Africa

16216. The Future of the Kuomintang in Taiwan: Reform, Recalibrate, or Stay the Course?

Author:: Thomas J. Shattuck
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Foreign Policy Research Institute
Abstract:: Once again, the future of Kuomintang (KMT), the political party headed by Chiang Kai-shek for decades and that favors a closer relationship with Mainland China, is in doubt due to the results of the recent presidential and legislative elections in Taiwan. President Tsai Ing-wen of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) was reelected in a landslide against her opponent Kaohsiung Mayor Han Kuo-yu of the Kuomintang. Tsai received a record 8+ million votes, and the DPP retained its majority in the country’s national legislature by winning 61 seats—though it did lose seven compared to the 2016 election when the party won its first-ever majority. The blowout victory puts the KMT’s future into question—though more senior analysts note that this conversation occurs after every election, particularly the 2016 election, and nothing really changes. Maybe, just maybe, this time will be different.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Politics, Reform, History, and Kuomintang
Political Geography:: Taiwan and Asia

16217. Can Oman Survive Its Own Neighborhood After the Death of Sultan Qaboos?

Author:: Louisa Keeler
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Foreign Policy Research Institute
Abstract:: The small Gulf state of Oman’s identity is closely—if not inextricably—linked with the person of Sultan Qaboos, who passed away on January 10 after nearly 50 years in power. He singlehandedly transformed the country from a sleepy, closed-off country comprising disparate groups to an interconnected, modern, and unified state that has proven itself an invaluable player on the international scene. Within Oman, his portrait is ubiquitous, and his name is on countless mosques, hospitals, and institutions throughout the Sultanate, a sign of both his revered status and proof of his impact on society. Now that he is gone, he leaves behind an untested successor who is not particularly well known to the international community. Qaboos’ presence will be missed during one of the tensest moments since 1979 between the United States, Iran, and the Arab Gulf states, countries which have relied on Oman as a badly needed messenger and facilitator for negotiations. If there was ever a good time for Sultan Qaboos to die, this was not it.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Domestic Politics, Monarchy, and Sultan Qaboos
Political Geography:: Oman and Gulf Nations

16218. What North Korea’s Coronavirus Measures Say About Its System

Author:: Benjamin Katzeff Silberstein
Publication Date:: 02-2020
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Foreign Policy Research Institute
Abstract:: The North Korean government response to the coronavirus has been extreme, but prudent and reasonable in context. It has closed the border to China almost entirely to both goods and people though surely some transports are still getting through. No travel is allowed to or from China although there must be exceptions to this rule as well. The state (under the banner of the Red Cross, whose branch in North Korea operates as a government entity) has dispatched people around the country to inform people about the virus. No reports have been confirmed at this time of writing, but exile journalists based in South Korea have reported several deaths from the virus from North Korea. Its actions have been blunt and all-encompassing, mainly because the state lacks the necessary capacity to act differently. North Korea doesn’t have the sort of equipment required to monitor people coming from China or to test people at the pace required.
Topic:: Government, Health, Authoritarianism, Border Control, Coronavirus, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Asia and North Korea

16219. What To Do about Idlib

Author:: Adam Garfinkle
Publication Date:: 03-2020
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Foreign Policy Research Institute
Abstract:: Sadness and tragedy come in many forms. One form consists in knowing how to solve a problem in theory, but realizing at the same time that what that would take in practice is not available. That is the case now with the tragedy unfolding in Idlib. There is a way to turn the crisis into an opportunity, but it would take wise and bold leaderships simultaneously in Washington, Jerusalem, Riyadh, Ankara, and the capitals of Europe. And that is precisely what we lack. What should be done? The U.S. government should privately propose, organize as necessary, and backstop as required a joint Israeli-Saudi intervention, coordinated with an on-going Turkish intervention, to save the million-plus refugees now facing imminent annihilation in Idlib Province, in Syria.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Military Intervention, Conflict, Syrian War, and Humanitarian Crisis
Political Geography:: Middle East, Syria, and Idlib

16220. Lack of Demand: The Coronavirus Pandemic and China’s Belt and Road Initiative

Author:: Felix Chang
Publication Date:: 04-2020
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Foreign Policy Research Institute
Abstract:: The novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), which arose in China and swept around the globe, has devastated the lives of hundreds of thousands. But however large the health impact of COVID-19 ultimately is, hundreds of millions more have already felt its economic impact. With people worldwide ordered to social distance and stay at home, entire industries have been shuttered. And though national economies will recover in time, fully restoring them may prove to be a slow process. No doubt, the longer the disease lingers, the longer an economic recovery will take. That could create one more economic casualty: China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
Topic:: Infrastructure, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Coronavirus, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: China and Asia

16221. The Swiss Model vs. Swedish Model in Dealing with China

Author:: Joseph de Weck
Publication Date:: 05-2020
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Foreign Policy Research Institute
Abstract:: Do you want to know how Beijing would like Europe to act? Take a look at Switzerland. Switzerland and China have been close for decades. It was the first Western nation to establish diplomatic relations with the People’s Republic of China (PRC) in January 1950. Bern wanted to protect investments in the new People’s Republic from nationalization and hoped Swiss industry could lend a hand in rebuilding China’s infrastructure after the civil war. Being friendly to China paid off, but only 30 years later, once reformer Deng Xiaoping took the reins of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). In 1980, Swiss elevator producer Schindler was the first foreign company to do a joint venture in China. Today, Switzerland is the only continental European country to have a free trade agreement (FTA) with China.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, International Trade and Finance, Treaties and Agreements, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:: China, Europe, Asia, Switzerland, and Sweden

16222. Social Distancing: Australia’s Relations with China

Author:: Felix Chang
Publication Date:: 05-2020
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Foreign Policy Research Institute
Abstract:: Affronts to Australia by China’s top diplomat in Canberra and the Chinese Communist Party’s Global Times newspaper reached new heights in April 2020. What prompted their verbal barbs was the Australian government’s backing for an independent review into the origins and spread of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19). While Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison may have regarded such a review as a way to avert future pandemics, Beijing saw it as support for finger-pointing at China. Whichever is the case, the affronts shone a light on how Beijing has come to view Australia and what it and other countries in the Indo-Pacific region might expect from China in the future. Still, China’s diplomatic and editorial barbs were surprising. China has long worked to move Australia closer into its orbit and away from that of the United States. And, by and large, those efforts had been paying off. Over the last decade, several Australian foreign policy analysts had come to believe that greater accommodation of China would be needed to ensure Australia’s future prosperity. Indeed, Canberra has already shown more sensitivity on issues, like Taiwan, which Beijing deemed strategic. But rather than being content with Australia’s gradual shift, China has undertaken actions that could undermine it, from cyber-espionage to political influence-buying in Australia. China’s most recent affronts are likely to deepen Australian concerns over what Chinese power means for the region.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Economy, and Coronavirus
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and Australia

16223. The Geopolitics of Post-Brexit Britain

Author:: Geoffrey Sloan
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Foreign Policy Research Institute
Abstract:: This essay draws on the author’s previous work, specifically: The Geopolitics of Anglo-Irish Relations in the 20th Century. The greatest failure of the European referendum campaign in 2016, which can be attributed to both sides, was the inability to articulate an understanding of Britain’s geopolitical relationship to Europe. By geopolitics, I do not mean its current usage: interpreted merely as a synonym for international strategic rivalry. I refer, instead, to classical geopolitics, which is a confluence of three subjects: geography, history, and strategy. It draws attention to certain geographical patterns of political history. It fuses spatial relationships and historical causation. It can produce explanations that suggest the contemporary and future political relevance of various geographical configurations.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Geopolitics, and Brexit
Political Geography:: Britain and Europe

16224. The Implications of Withdrawing American Troops from Germany

Author:: Alexander Luck
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Foreign Policy Research Institute
Abstract:: On June 6, the Wall Street Journal set off an avalanche of commentary by reporting that U.S. President Donald Trump ordered a drastic reduction in U.S. troops deployed in Germany within a space of only six months. The move was met with significant pushback in Washington and Brussels, causing Congressional Republicans to raise their concerns in letters and public statements. Trump’s announcement, however, was in fact an extension of earlier plans mooted in June 2019, when the administration first suggested moving at least 1,000 troops from Germany to Poland. At the time, Trump suggested that the proposed move was to “affirm the significant defense cooperation between our nations.” Washington picked up this potential troop move again in a rather unrelated context following a spat over the German refusal to participate in a naval mission in the Persian Gulf to deter Iran, reinforcing the notion Trump keeps using American deployments in Germany as a bargaining chip for any interaction on foreign policy with the Merkel government.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Armed Forces, and Military Affairs
Political Geography:: Europe, Germany, North America, and United States of America

16225. No Sanctuary: China’s New Territorial Dispute with Bhutan

Author:: Felix Chang
Publication Date:: 07-2020
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Foreign Policy Research Institute
Abstract:: Resting at the eastern end of Bhutan is the Sakteng Wildlife Sanctuary. Spanning some 750 square kilometers, it is spread out across a densely forested area of the Himalayan Mountains. The sanctuary is far better known for its unique flora and fauna (including the red panda and, reputedly, the fabled yeti) than its geographic boundaries. But the latter is precisely what brought it to international attention in June 2020. Early that month, Bhutan sought a grant for the sanctuary from a global environmental organization that funds sustainable development projects. Unexpectedly, China’s representatives to that organization opposed the grant. Their reason: China considers the sanctuary to be “disputed territory.”
Topic:: Development, Environment, Territorial Disputes, and History
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and Bhutan

16226. COVID-19 and Authoritarian Regimes: China vs. Russia

Author:: Yaroslav Shevchenko
Publication Date:: 07-2020
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Foreign Policy Research Institute
Abstract:: The Russian Federation and the People’s Republic of China are certainly the two most prominent authoritarian regimes in the world today, with their quasi-alliance characterized as an “axis of authoritarians” and portrayed as a major threat to the West and global liberal democracy. However, despite unmistakable similarities that exist between Xi Jinping of China and Vladimir Putin of Russia, the reality is far more complex. Their respective responses to the COVID-19 crisis shed some light on differences between the political-governance models of these two countries.
Topic:: Authoritarianism, Economy, Crisis Management, COVID-19, and Health Crisis
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Eurasia, and Asia

16227. The Role of Russian Private Military Contractors in Africa

Author:: Anna Borshchevskaya
Publication Date:: 08-2020
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Foreign Policy Research Institute
Abstract:: It is no secret that Moscow is increasingly utilizing so-called “private military contractors” (PMCs) to pursue foreign policy objectives across the globe, especially in the Middle East and Africa. What has received less attention is that Moscow’s deployment of PMCs follows a pattern: The Kremlin is exploiting a loophole in international law by securing agreements that allow contractors to provide local assistance. The problem is, however, Russian PMCs are not simply contractors. This pattern of Russian behavior presents a new challenge that Western policymakers should address, as it speaks to broader Russian influence in Africa in the context of great power competition. This challenge is about Moscow’s erosion of broader behavioral norms.
Topic:: International Law, Military Affairs, and Private Sector
Political Geography:: Africa, Russia, and Eurasia

16228. U.S. Troops Injured in Altercation with Russian Forces: What It Means for the War in Syria

Author:: Robert E. Hamilton
Publication Date:: 08-2020
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Foreign Policy Research Institute
Abstract:: On August 26, Politico reported that U.S. service members were injured after an altercation with Russian forces in northeast Syria. This pattern of Russian challenges to U.S. forces was enabled by the Trump administration’s decision to retreat from parts of northern Syria in 2019, allowing Russia to fill the void. Until this decision was made, the two countries had agreed to make the Euphrates River the deconfliction line to keep U.S. and Russian forces separated. Russia stayed on the west side of the river, and the United on the east side, where this incident took place. Robert Hamilton, Senior Fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, commented on the story and warned that it will not be a one-off incident: “We need to respond to this immediately and forcefully. Russian forces deliberately escalated against U.S. partners when I was running the ground deconfliction cell for Syria in 2017, but tended to be careful when U.S. forces were present. Unless we make it clear that we’ll defend ourselves, these escalations will continue with dangerous and unpredictable results.” Below, we offer readers an excerpt from a chapter written by Robert Hamilton from a forthcoming edited volume on Russia’s Way of War in Syria.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, War, Military Strategy, Military Affairs, and Troop Deployment
Political Geography:: Russia, Eurasia, Middle East, Syria, United States of America, and North America

16229. Malta, Italy, and Mediterranean Migration: A Long History and an Ongoing Issue

Author:: Leslie Rogne Schumacher
Publication Date:: 09-2020
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Foreign Policy Research Institute
Abstract:: In July 2013, the Sunday Telegraph issued a report on the escalating refugee crisis in Malta. In the previous decade, Malta had seen thousands of Africans make their way to the tiny island nation, which lies just over a hundred miles from the Tunisian coast. The newspaper wanted to get some reactions from Maltese citizens on the way they were coping with this influx of desperate, often sick and traumatized, and almost uniformly poor North and Sub-Saharan Africans. Some Maltese told the Sunday Telegraph’s reporters that they had experienced no problems with their new neighbors, but others accused the Africans of being dirty, unruly, and possibly dangerous. “Every night you see them around here, drinking and making a mess,” claimed Raymond Zammit, while Gerard Camelleri said “the kids feel afraid to play in the parks” and warned that “in another few years, Malta is going to be African.” In September 2014, an anti-immigration rally in Malta saw its participants claim that the “real Maltese” were at risk of extermination due to the refugee crisis, with one saying that Malta must be “cleared of African invaders, who want to destroy Maltese culture and civilisation.”
Topic:: Migration, Refugees, History, and Borders
Political Geography:: Italy, Mediterranean, and Malta

16230. China’s Monopoly on Rare Earth Elements—and Why We Should Care

Author:: June Teufel Dreyer
Publication Date:: 10-2020
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Foreign Policy Research Institute
Abstract:: According to geologists, rare earths are not rare, but they are precious. The answer to what appears to be a riddle lies in accessibility. Comprising 17 elements that are used extensively in both consumer electronics and national defense equipment, rare earth elements (REEs) were first discovered and put into use in the United States. However, production gradually shifted to China, where lower labor costs, less concern for environmental impacts, and generous state subsidies enabled the People’s Republic of China (PRC) to account for 97 percent of global production. In 1997, Magniquench, then-America’s leading rare earths company, was sold to an investment consortium headed by Archibald Cox, Jr., son of the same-named Watergate prosecutor, with two Chinese state-owned metals firms, San Huan New Materials and China National Nonferrous Metals Import and Export Company. The chairman of San Huan, son-in-law of paramount leader Deng Xiaoping, became chairman of the company. Magniquench was shut down in the United States, moved to China, and reopened in 2003, where it fit in well with Deng’s Super 863 Program to acquire cutting-edge technologies for military applications, including “exotic materials.” This left Molycorp as the last remaining major rare earths producer in the United States until its collapse in 2015.
Topic:: International Trade and Finance, Natural Resources, Exports, and Supply Chains
Political Geography:: China and Asia

16231. The Realist Victory in Nagorno-Karabakh

Author:: Maximilian Hess
Publication Date:: 11-2020
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Foreign Policy Research Institute
Abstract:: Armenia’s accession to a Russian-mediated settlement with Azerbaijan over their long-running conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh, known as Artsakh to Armenians, on November 10 marks a major, perhaps irreversible, loss for Yerevan. But it is not just Armenian forces who stand defeated. It also marks the trouncing of a liberal approach to the region and the supremacy of realist power politics.
Topic:: Treaties and Agreements, Territorial Disputes, and Armed Conflict
Political Geography:: Eurasia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Nagorno-Karabakh

16232. Hard security dynamics in the Baltic Sea region: From turbulence to tense stability

Author:: Matti Pesu
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: This Briefing Paper looks into the fundamentals of the Baltic Sea security landscape in the early 2020s. It argues that three interconnected security dynamics shape the present, ‘post-2014’ security environment in Northeastern Europe. That is to say, Russia’s assertive behaviour in the region and in Europe more broadly, NATO’s reassurance and deterrence measures in the area, and Finland’s and Sweden’s closer integration into the Western defence network all affect hard se- curity dynamics in the Baltic Sea region. These three dynamics underlie the tense regional stability that emerged after a period of alarmism and turbulence in the immediate aftermath of Russia’s ac- tions in Ukraine. Fundamentally, the stability is the product of the interplay between the three dynamics. In other words, NATO’s reassurance and deterrence measures accompanied by Finland’s and Sweden’s in- tegration into the Western security and defence system act as a counterweight to Russia’s actions in the region, creating a balance of power holding Russia’s ambitions in check. Investigating the sources of regional balance is rele- vant for multiple reasons. The region remains a poten- tial hotspot between Russia and the West and, thus, it merits close and continuous attention. Moreover, the word ‘stability’ frequently features in foreign policy parlance in Northern Europe, particularly in Finland and Sweden. Given this rhetorical proclivity, attention needs to be paid to the factors that actually constitute stability and the state of hard security in the Baltic Sea area. The paper consists of three analytical parts. First, it provides a brief historical overview of the twists and turns in the regional security landscape from the early post-Cold War era to today. The second part introduces the three dynamics in detail, followed by an analysis of how they are interconnected. The paper concludes by contemplating how regional stability could best be preserved in the 2020s.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, NATO, International Cooperation, and Military Strategy
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Baltic Sea

16233. EU sanctions and Brexit: Losing the hard edge of European foreign policy?

Author:: Juha Jokela and Ilari Aula
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: The EU needs to assume more responsibility in defending its interests and security. Brexit will constitute an additional challenge for the EU in this respect, and has led to calls to strengthen the efficiency of the the Common Foreign and Security Policy, including EU sanctions, which currently form one of the toughest and most increasingly used tools in the EU’s foreign policy toolbox. The UK has been the most active and influential member state in formulating the EU’s sanctions policy. The EU could largely replace the technical expertise provided by the UK, yet the level of ambition of the EU’s sanctions policy is likely to decrease. Even though the UK has taken measures to maintain the sanctions regimes it agreed to as an EU member state, an independent UK sanctions policy could result in divergence. The envisaged coordination mechanisms between EU and UK sanctions policies can mitigate some of the negative implications of Brexit, but they cannot replace the UK’s EU membership.
Topic:: Regional Cooperation, Sanctions, European Union, and Brexit
Political Geography:: United Kingdom and Europe

16234. Managed leadership succession in Kazakhstan: A model for gradual departure?

Author:: Kristiina Silvan
Publication Date:: 03-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: In March 2019, Kazakhstan’s authoritarian leader, Nursultan Nazarbayev, stepped down after three decades of rule and yielded power to his nominated successor, Kassym-Zhomart Tokayev. However, Nazarbayev has paradoxically remained the most powerful political actor in Kazakhstan. Kazakhstan’s model of gradual leadership succession could serve as an example to authoritarian states around the world, but it is particularly significant in the post-Soviet context. Institutional and constitutional changes that took place in the 1990s were aimed at concentrating power in the presidency. However, modifications initiated by Nazarbayev in the 2000s and 2010s sought to weaken the Kazakh presidency while strengthening power vested in himself personally, in order to ensure the continuation of a political status quo and his family’s well-being after the transfer of power. Despite the careful preparation and Tokayev’s relatively smooth ascension to power, it is still too early to evaluate the success of the transfer due to the vast powers retained by Nazarbayev. The transition of power in Kazakhstan remains an ongoing process and, as such, unpredictable.
Topic:: Power Politics, Authoritarianism, Leadership, and Transition
Political Geography:: Central Asia and Kazakhstan

16235. Covid-19 – a trigger for global transformation? Political distancing, global decoupling and growing distrust in health governance

Author:: Mika Aaltola
Publication Date:: 04-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: Since late 2019, the world has sought – frantically at times – to appropriate policies for responding to the coronavirus pandemic (Covid-19). This Working Paper reviews the political significance of Covid-19 in order to understand the ways in which it challenges the existing domestic order, international health governance actors and, more fundamentally, the circulation-based modus operandi of the present world order. The analysis begins with the argument that contagious diseases should be regarded as complex open-ended phenomena with various features; they are not reducible to biology and epidemiology alone. In particular, politics and social reactions – in the form of panic and blamecasting, for example – are prominent features with clear historical patterns, and should not, for the sake of efficient health governance, be treated as aspects extraneous to the disease itself. The Working Paper further highlights that when a serious infectious disease spreads, a “threat” is very often externalized into a culturally meaningful “foreign” entity. Pandemics tend to be territorialized, nationalized, ethnicized, and racialized. This has also been the case with Covid-19.
Topic:: Governance, Public Health, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Global Focus

16236. Finland’s response to the Covid-19 epidemic: Long-term preparation and specific plans

Author:: Charly Salonius-Pasternak
Publication Date:: 03-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: To address Covid-19, Finland has activated its Emergency Powers Act for the first time ever. While the outcome remains uncertain, Finland’s plan for how to protect its citizens and vital functions of society has withstood its initial confrontation with reality. The authorities are cooperating with private and third-sector actors to ensure that implementation is effective and to anticipate further steps.
Topic:: Public Health, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Medicine
Political Geography:: Europe and Finland

16237. China after the pandemic: Insecurity spills over to contradictory foreign policy actions

Author:: Jyrki Kallio
Publication Date:: 03-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: China has garnered international goodwill by aiding countries hardest hit by the Covid-19 pandemic. China is in a position to show that it takes its ideal of creating a global community with a shared future seriously. However, the country’s other actions undermine its soft-power dissemination efforts.
Topic:: International Cooperation, Public Health, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: China and Asia

16238. Italy and the Covid-19 emergency: Tackling an unprecedented crisis, with limited EU solidarity

Author:: Marco Siddi
Publication Date:: 03-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: Thus far, Italy has been the EU member most affected by the Covid-19 pandemic, as well as the first one to take drastic measures to fight contagion. The country is now a reference for lessons learned and a test case for solidarity in the EU.
Topic:: European Union, Public Health, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Europe and Italy

16239. The politicization of Covid-19 in Iran: Domestic and international power play hampers the response

Author:: Mariette Hagglund
Publication Date:: 03-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: In Iran, the response to the coronavirus pandemic would require cooperation but is marred by the politicization of the crisis. Iran faces a difficult balancing act between different segments of society amid a serious economic situation that also encompasses international power politics.
Topic:: Power Politics, Public Health, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Iran and Middle East

16240. Ukraine and its regions: Societal trends and policy implications

Author:: Arkady Moshes and Ryhor Nizhnikau
Publication Date:: 03-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: Since the Euromaidan Revolution, self-identification and attitudes within Ukrainian society have changed profoundly. This report takes stock of the identity changes both nationwide and in three major oblasts, namely Lviv, Kharkiv and Odesa, representing in this study the Western, Eastern and Southern regions of the country respectively, to identify new differences and unity points. To this end, the report focuses on two major issues, looking firstly at the trajectory of the identity shifts nationwide and in three key regions, and secondly, at their political effects. The question of the sustainability of the changes is also addressed. Taking the regional aspect into consideration is crucial given that cleavages have traditionally had a visible regional pattern, and that the identity shifts coincide with a realignment of centre-periphery relations within the context of the ongoing reforms, particularly decentralization. The report also furthers understanding of the potential risks – or lack thereof – of this process for the Ukrainian state. This publication is part of a research project “Ukraine after Euromaidan” conducted by the Finnish Institute of International Affairs. The project is implemented with the financial support of the Nordic Council of Ministers 2020.
Topic:: Revolution, Local, Decentralization, Identity, and Euromaidan Revolution
Political Geography:: Europe, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe

16241. Tackling Covid-19 calls for trust: Building confidence is part of containing a pandemic

Author:: Tyyne Karjalainen
Publication Date:: 04-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: Covid-19 highlights the relevance of sharing information at a time of crisis. The revision of International Health Regulations in 2005 aimed to prevent the international spread of diseases, but the response to the novel virus shows that gaps in global health security remain. At the same time, authorities at all levels need to gain citizens’ trust in order to design an effective response.
Topic:: Leadership, Public Health, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Global Focus

16242. The Covid-19 pandemic in Russia: No applause for Putin’s political play?

Author:: Veera Laine and Jussi Lassila
Publication Date:: 04-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: In Russia, the confirmed Covid-19 infections have been suspiciously few. The official numbers do not reflect reality as there has been no systematic testing at any phase of the epidemic. Now, however, the number of cases has risen rapidly, and the new situation has an effect on the Kremlin’s position in the eyes of the people.
Topic:: Leadership, Public Health, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Eastern Europe

16243. Turkey in Africa: Chasing markets and power with a neo-Ottoman rhetoric

Author:: Toni Alaranta
Publication Date:: 04-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: Turkey’s increasing activity in Africa is part of its new foreign policy doctrine within which Turkey is conceptualized as a global ‘order-producing’ country. The export-oriented companies supporting the AKP constantly seek new markets, and President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan wants to export his brand of Islamic-conservative ideology to other Muslim-majority countries. Turkish government officials and NGOs emphasize the historical connections between the Ottoman state and the African target countries. Turkey currently plays a key role in the internal affairs of Libya and Somalia, upholding military bases and training programmes. Turkey’s emphasis on humanitarian aid and equality, and the use of government-affiliated NGOs, have produced positive results, but the tendency to see Africa as a terrain for hegemonic power struggles against Egypt and Saudi Arabia is likely to generate negative reactions.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Humanitarian Aid, and NGOs
Political Geography:: Africa, Europe, Turkey, and Asia

16244. Covid-19 bends the rules on internal border controls: Yet another crisis undermining the Schengen acquis?

Author:: Saila Heinikoski
Publication Date:: 04-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: Free movement within the Schengen Area has been challenged in recent years by national measures: from internal border checks after the ‘migration crisis’ to the closure of borders in the Covid-19 crisis. This is the first time in the history of Schengen that member states have categorically refused entry to other EU citizens who are not registered residents or cross-border workers. Seventeen Schengen countries have submitted a notification on reintroducing internal border control due to Covid-19: Austria, Belgium, Czechia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Hungary, Iceland, Lithuania, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Slovakia, Spain and Switzerland. The use of Schengen provisions was creative: 12 states justified their internal border controls as a case requiring immediate action (Art. 28), France and Denmark expanded their already existing internal border controls (Art. 25), Finland appealed to the ‘foreseeable event’ clause (Art. 25), and Slovakia and Poland introduced ‘healthcare-police measures’ (Art. 23) before launching border controls (Art. 28). The crisis illustrates the need to reform Schengen in order to maintain the legitimacy of commonly agreed rules.
Topic:: Regional Cooperation, European Union, Public Health, Schengen, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Europe, Finland, Norway, France, Poland, Lithuania, Germany, Estonia, Belgium, Denmark, Hungary, Spain, Switzerland, Portugal, Iceland, Austria, Czech Republic, and Slovakia

16245. Eurasian Union fails a critical test: Displaying irrelevance in the time of the corona crisis

Author:: Arkady Moshes, Ryhor Nizhnikau, and Kristiina Silvan
Publication Date:: 05-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: The pandemic is testing the effectiveness of the Eurasian Economic Union. However, its actions demonstrate the fundamental flaws of this integration project instead.
Topic:: Regional Cooperation, Public Health, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Europe and Asia

16246. International responses to the Rohingya crisis in Myanmar: From political inaction to growing legal pressure

Author:: Katja Creutz
Publication Date:: 05-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: In December 2019, Myanmar defended itself before the International Court of Justice against genocide charges for the atrocities committed in 2016–2017 against the Rohingya Muslims. The Rohingya crisis has driven several hundreds of thousands of the Rohingya as refugees into neighbouring Bangladesh with an unsettled future. In addition, questions of perpetrator accountability remain open. The UN Human Rights Council created a fact-finding mission and an international investigative mechanism for the purpose of bringing the individuals responsible to justice. With Western states generally condemning Myanmar’s actions, China’s influence in and over Myanmar has intensified, as the country has blocked robust action before the UN Security Council, leading to charges of political inaction. There is growing legal pressure against Myanmar at the national and international level, forcing it to respond. While accountability proceedings are important, problems may emerge when several courts deal with the same situation. Their capacity to provide immediate relief in relation to the crisis is also small.
Topic:: Genocide, United Nations, International Court of Justice (ICJ), and Humanitarian Crisis
Political Geography:: Myanmar

16247. Covid-19 calls for European strategic autonomy: The EU needs to manage global dependencies without pulling up the drawbridges

Author:: Niklas Helwig
Publication Date:: 05-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: Covid-19 has revealed the risks of Europe’s global dependencies in strategic sectors and intensified the debate on European strategic autonomy. While some argue for a self-sufficient Europe, a smart approach to globalization is in the EU’s interest.
Topic:: Globalization, Public Health, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Europe

16248. Rebuilding Sweden’s crisis preparedness: Lack of clarity impedes implementation

Author:: Mariette Hagglund
Publication Date:: 05-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: Changes in the security environment and Sweden’s related policy changes adopted in the early 2000s made large national-level planning and organization unnecessary. This led to a decentralization of Sweden’s crisis preparedness system. Covid-19 is the latest reminder of some of the shortcomings in Sweden’s crisis preparedness. Previous warning signs were the 2004 tsunami in Southeast Asia, and the forest fires in 2014 and 2018. A major effort is currently underway in Sweden to build a streamlined system to respond to the broad scope of vulnerabilities and threats. A functioning crisis preparedness system is not only important in itself, but also as a contribution to Sweden’s total defence efforts. Rebuilding the system, however, will be slow and costly. Sweden’s crisis preparedness system is characterized by a complex authority landscape and discrepancies between sectors and regions. While the Swedish constitution does not allow for exceptions in crises, and ministerial governance is forbidden, the Covid-19 situation may spark a discussion about the need for changes in the legal framework.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Crisis Management, Public Health, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Europe and Sweden

16249. Mapping Pacific contributions to UN peacekeeping

Author:: Lisa Sharland and Genevieve Feely
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
Abstract:: There’s a long and proud history of peacekeeping in the Pacific. Countries in the region have hosted missions, and contributed to them, to support their neighbours, resolve conflicts and maintain a more secure and peaceful region. They have also sent personnel abroad to contribute to global efforts to maintain international peace and security. Yet, this is an area that’s less explored and understood. The Pacific is frequently viewed as a beneficiary of peacekeeping rather than as a substantive contributor. In this report, we attempt to address that gap, drawing on interviews and discussions with government officials and returned peacekeepers in seven case-study countries (Fiji, Papua New Guinea, Samoa, Solomon Islands, Tonga, Timor-Leste and Vanuatu). We offer recommendations for Pacific countries, as well as the Australian Government, about opportunities for further partnerships to support the engagement of countries in the region in UN peacekeeping.
Topic:: United Nations, Peacekeeping, Partnerships, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Solomon Islands, Timor-Leste, Asia-Pacific, Samoa, Tonga, Vanuatu, Papua New Guinea, and Fiji

16250. Ensuring a trusted 5G ecosystem of vendors and technology

Author:: Rajiv Shah
Publication Date:: 09-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
Abstract:: 5G will be the next generation of mobile telecommunications. There are differing views on how quickly it will become commonplace and exactly what form it will take, but it will ultimately transform much of what we do and how society functions. The trustworthiness, security and resilience of 5G networks will therefore be critical. A key part of this will be the partnerships that network operators form with vendors to provide and maintain the network infrastructure. There’s now a good understanding that 5G will underpin critical national infrastructure in a way that previous telecommunication technologies don’t, and that supply-chain trust and security are key national security issues. Australia and some other countries have eliminated specific vendors from their 5G supply chains, but the space is globally contested and there is no consensus on what happens next. There is a need for a trusted ecosystem of vendors, which may also bring enormous opportunities for states, including Australia, to develop sovereign 5G capabilities and grow their 5G market. However, barriers to entry and a lack of consensus among key 5G stakeholders across the public and private sectors are holding up progress towards these goals.
Topic:: Markets, Science and Technology, Cybersecurity, and 5G
Political Geography:: Global Focus

16251. The Chinese Communist Party’s coercive diplomacy

Author:: Fergus Hanson, Emilia Currey, and Tracy Beattie
Publication Date:: 09-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
Abstract:: The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is increasingly deploying coercive diplomacy against foreign governments and companies. Coercive diplomacy isn’t well understood, and countries and companies have struggled to develop an effective toolkit to push back against and resist it. This report tracks the CCP’s use of coercive diplomacy over the past 10 years, recording 152 cases of coercive diplomacy affecting 27 countries as well as the European Union. The data shows that there’s been a sharp escalation in these tactics since 2018. The regions and countries that recorded the most instances of coercive diplomacy over the last decade include Europe, North America, Australia, New Zealand and East Asia. The CCP’s coercive tactics can include economic measures (such as trade sanctions, investment restrictions, tourism bans and popular boycotts) and non-economic measures (such as arbitrary detention, restrictions on official travel and state-issued threats). These efforts seek to punish undesired behaviour and focus on issues including securing territorial claims, deploying Huawei’s 5G technology, suppressing minorities in Xinjiang, blocking the reception of the Dalai Lama and obscuring the handling of the Covid-19 pandemic. China is the largest trading partner for nearly two-thirds of the world’s countries, and its global economic importance gives it significant leverage. The impacts of coercive diplomacy are exacerbated by the growing dependency of foreign governments and companies on the Chinese market. The economic, business and security risks of that dependency are likely to increase if the CCP can continue to successfully use this form of coercion.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, European Union, Economy, and Chinese Communist Party (CCP)
Political Geography:: China, Europe, and Asia

16252. Cultural erasure: Tracing the destruction of Uyghur and Islamic spaces in Xinjiang

Author:: Nathan Ruser, James Leibold, Kelsey Munro, and Tilla Hoja
Publication Date:: 09-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
Abstract:: The Chinese Government has embarked on a systematic and intentional campaign to rewrite the cultural heritage of the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region (XUAR). It’s seeking to erode and redefine the culture of the Uyghurs and other Turkic-speaking communities—stripping away any Islamic, transnational or autonomous elements—in order to render those indigenous cultural traditions subservient to the ‘Chinese nation’. Using satellite imagery, we estimate that approximately 16,000 mosques in Xinjiang (65% of the total) have been destroyed or damaged as a result of government policies, mostly since 2017. An estimated 8,500 have been demolished outright, and, for the most part, the land on which those razed mosques once sat remains vacant. A further 30% of important Islamic sacred sites (shrines, cemeteries and pilgrimage routes, including many protected under Chinese law) have been demolished across Xinjiang, mostly since 2017, and an additional 28% have been damaged or altered in some way. Alongside other coercive efforts to re-engineer Uyghur social and cultural life by transforming or eliminating Uyghurs’ language, music, homes and even diets, the Chinese Government’s policies are actively erasing and altering key elements of their tangible cultural heritage. Many international organisations and foreign governments have turned a blind eye. The UN Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) and the International Council on Monuments and Sites (ICOMOS) have remained silent in the face of mounting evidence of cultural destruction in Xinjiang. Muslim-majority countries, in particular, have failed to challenge the Chinese Government over its efforts to domesticate, sinicise and separate Uyghur culture from the wider Islamic world.
Topic:: Islam, Culture, UNESCO, and Uyghurs
Political Geography:: China and Xinjiang

16253. The flipside of China’s central bank digital currency

Author:: Samantha Hoffman, John Garnaut, Kayla Izenman, Matthew Johnson, Alexandra Pascoe, Fergus Ryan, and Elise Thomas
Publication Date:: 10-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
Abstract:: China’s central bank digital currency, known as ‘DC/EP’ (Digital Currency / Electronic Payment), is rapidly progressing and, if successful, would have major international implications that have not yet been widely considered by policymakers. DC/EP would have ramifications for governments, investors, and companies, including China’s own tech champions. It has the potential to create the world’s largest centralised repository of financial transactions data and, while it may address some financial governance challenges, such as money laundering, it would also create unprecedented opportunities for surveillance. The initial impact of a successful DC/EP project will be primarily domestic, but little thought has been given to the longer term and global implications. DC/EP could be exported overseas via the digital wallets of Chinese tourists, students and businesspeople. Over time, it is not far-fetched to speculate that the Chinese party-state will incentivise or even mandate that foreigners also use DC/EP for certain categories of cross-border RMB transactions as a condition of accessing the Chinese marketplace. DC/EP intersects with China’s ambitions to shape global technological and financial standards, for example, through the promotion of RMB internationalisation and fintech standards-setting along sites of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). In the long term, therefore, a successful DC/EP could greatly expand the party-state’s ability to monitor and shape economic behaviour well beyond the borders of the People’s Republic of China (PRC).
Topic:: Monetary Policy, Central Bank, and Digital Currency
Political Geography:: China and Asia

16254. Economic coercion: Boycotts and sanctions-preferred weapons of war

Author:: David Uren
Publication Date:: 10-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
Abstract:: This report argues that the growing use of economic coercion by both China and the United States is an emerging risk for business and undermines the world trading system. Australian businesses that have in good faith taken up the opportunities offered by the China-Australia Free Trade Agreement, signed in 2015, now find themselves facing the potential loss of market access as the Chinese administration retaliates over Australian government policies on a coronavirus inquiry and the next generation internet network. Australian businesses are not the targets of US sanctions, but US extra-territorial reach means they are at risk of serious collateral damage if they even inadvertently transact with any individual or organisation that is. The report traces the growing use of trade as an economic weapon, particularly over the last three years as the global trade environment has become increasingly fractious amid rising protectionism. The World Trade Organisation has successfully been used in the past to push back against economic coercion and the report argues the Australian government should be ready to use the disputes mechanism of the World Trade Organisation to tackle Chinese trade barriers. Multilateral forums, including APEC, the G20, the OECD and the WTO should recognise the growing threat which economic coercion represents to the freedom of commerce.
Topic:: Sanctions, Economy, Trade Wars, Free Trade, and Protectionism
Political Geography:: China, Australia, and United States of America

16255. Critical technologies and the Indo-Pacific: A new India-Australia partnership

Author:: Aakriti Bachhawat, Danielle Cave, Jocelinn Kang, Rajeswari Pillai, and Trisha Ray
Publication Date:: 10-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
Abstract:: This report by ASPI’s International Cyber Policy Centre and India’s Observer Research Foundation argues that as the India-Australia bilateral relationship continues to grow and evolve, both governments should invest in the construction of a new India–Australia partnership on technology. The foundation for such a partnership already exists, and further investment areas of complementary interests could stimulate regional momentum in a range of key critical and emerging technology areas including in 5G, Artificial Intelligence, quantum technologies, space technologies and in critical minerals. The report contains 14 policy recommendations that will help build this new technology partnership. This new report outlines what this new India-Australia technology partnership could look like. It examines the current state of the India–Australia relationship; provides an overview of current technology cooperation and where challenges and roadblocks lie; analyses each state’s competitive and complementary advantages in selected technology areas and highlights opportunities for further collaboration across the areas of 5G, Artificial Intelligence, Quantum technologies, Space technologies and in critical minerals.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Science and Technology, Bilateral Relations, Partnerships, and Cybersecurity
Political Geography:: India and Australia

16256. Covid-19 Disinformation & Social Media Manipulation

Author:: Australian Strategic Policy Institute
Publication Date:: 10-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
Abstract:: Arange of actors are manipulating the information environment to exploit the COVID-19 crisis for strategic gain. ASPI’s International Cyber Policy Centre is tracking many of these state and non-state actors online, and will occasionally publish investigative, data-driven reporting that will focus on the use of disinformation, propaganda, extremist narratives and conspiracy theories by these actors. The bulk of ASPI’s data analysis uses our in-house Influence Tracker tool - a machine learning and data analytics capability that draws out insights from multi-language social media datasets. This new tool can ingest data in multiple languages and auto-translate, producing insights on topics, sentiment, shared content, influential accounts, metrics of impact and posting patterns.
Topic:: Social Media, Coronavirus, Pandemic, COVID-19, Disinformation, and Disaster Management
Political Geography:: Australia and Global Focus

16257. Cyber-enabled foreign interference in elections and referendums

Author:: Sarah O'Connor, Fergus Hanson, Emilia Currey, and Tracy Beattie
Publication Date:: 10-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
Abstract:: Over the past decade, state actors have taken advantage of the digitisation of election systems, election administration and election campaigns to interfere in foreign elections and referendums. Their activity can be divided into two attack vectors. First, they’ve used various cyber operations, such as denial of service (DoS) attacks and phishing attacks, to disrupt voting infrastructure and target electronic and online voting, including vote tabulation. Second, they’ve used online information operations to exploit the digital presence of election campaigns, politicians, journalists and voters. Together, these two attack vectors (referred to collectively as ‘cyber-enabled foreign interference’ in this report because both are mediated through cyberspace) have been used to seek to influence voters and their turnout at elections, manipulate the information environment and diminish public trust in democratic processes. This research identified 41 elections and seven referendums between January 2010 and October 2020 where cyber-enabled foreign interference was reported, and it finds that there’s been a significant uptick in such activity since 2017. This data collection shows that Russia is the most prolific state actor engaging in online interference, followed by China, whose cyber-enabled foreign interference activity has increased significantly over the past two years. As well as these two dominant actors, Iran and North Korea have also tried to influence foreign elections in 2019 and 2020. All four states have sought to interfere in the 2020 US presidential elections using differing cyber-enabled foreign interference tactics. In many cases, these four actors use a combination of cyber operations and online information operations to reinforce their activities. There’s also often a clear geopolitical link between the interfering state and its target: these actors are targeting states they see as adversaries or useful to their geopolitical interests. Democratic societies are yet to develop clear thresholds for responding to cyber-enabled interference, particularly when it’s combined with other levers of state power or layered with a veil of plausible deniability. Even when they’re able to detect it, often with the help of social media platforms, research institutes and the media, most states are failing to effectively deter such activity. The principles inherent in democratic societies—openness, freedom of speech and the free flow of ideas—have made them particularly vulnerable to online interference.
Topic:: Elections, Referendum, Foreign Interference, and Cyberspace
Political Geography:: China, Australia, and Global Focus

16258. Submarines: Your questions answered

Author:: Peter Jennings and Marcus Hellyer
Publication Date:: 11-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
Abstract:: Prime Minister John Howard famously coined the term ‘barbeque stopper’ to refer to a political controversy so hot that it was likely to make backyard diners stop mid-shrimp-sizzle to debate the big issue of the day. If ever the specialist world of defence procurement has produced a national barbeque stopper, it would be over the question of Australia’s future submarine. Why are they so expensive? Why do we need 12 of them? Why build them here? Why not nuclear propulsion? Why a French design? Why not an American, German, Japanese or Swedish design? Aren’t submarines obsolete, to be replaced by drones? Won’t technology make the oceans transparent? There are many questions and few, if any, easily accessible, plain-English explanations. This ASPI study attempts to answer the many questions that Australians pose when it comes to the design, acquisition, cost, operational service and strategic implications of submarines. Our writing team includes a vice admiral and former Chief of Navy, two rear admirals—one a distinguished submariner who has served with the Royal Navy and the Royal Australian Navy; the other, one of Australia’s leading naval historians. Other contributors include people steeped in strategy and capability development and with deep industry experience of defence production.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Economics, National Security, Armed Forces, Navy, and Submarines
Political Geography:: Australia

16259. ‘Thinking big!’: Resetting Northern Australia’s national security posture

Author:: John Coyne
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
Abstract:: This report highlights the vast economic opportunities in northern Australia and how they can contribute to our national security. The author makes the case that, while defence spending is vital to northern economies and nation building, it’s focused more on the Defence organisation’s more narrowly conceived portfolio capital investments in defence establishments and facilities rather than on much-needed broader national security and economic decisions. Instead, there’s a need for the federal government and the Northern Territory, Queensland and Western Australian governments to take a more holistic perspective on northern Australia’s critical economic and national security role. The cities of Townsville, Cairns, Darwin and Katherine are vital to our defence, but also to our financial and national security. They’re most definitely more than home bases for the ADF.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Economics, Government, and National Security
Political Geography:: Australia and Asia-Pacific

16260. ASPI/KAS The impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on extremism dynamics: Towards national resilience

Author:: Katja Theodorakis and Leanne Close
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
Abstract:: The Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) and the Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung’s (KAS) Regional Programme Australia and the Pacific held their annual Australia–Europe Counter Terrorism Dialogue in virtual form this year. This publication provides an overview of the issues discussed at the 5th Dialogue in Europe in 2019, and the two events held in Australia and virtually with European experts, in August and September. The annual ASPI–KAS Counter-Terrorism Dialogue, now in its sixth iteration, seeks to foster knowledge exchange on continuing and emerging forms of terrorism and violent extremism across the ideological spectrum, exploring how to proactively deal with an ever-evolving threat landscape. Keynote speakers were live-streamed from Europe joining a selected group of Australian experts and representatives of the European diplomatic corps. A tried and proven format, it brings together policymakers, representatives from relevant government institutions, academic experts and practitioners from Australia, Germany and other European countries for frank discussions. Security in our countries relies on peace, civility and collaboration within and beyond our own borders. The propagation of hate speech and disinformation is being creatively used by terrorists and conspiracy theorists, as is the current global pandemic. This report focuses on the theme of the 2020 dialogues - building national resilience, including consideration of the impact of the Covid-19 crisis on the dynamics of violent extremism and terrorism.
Topic:: National Security, Counter-terrorism, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Australia and Global Focus

16261. Indo-Pacific election pulse 2020: Taiwan, Singapore, New Zealand, Myanmar and the United States: Views from The Strategist

Author:: Huong Le Thu and Alexandra Pascoe
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
Abstract:: The ‘Indo-Pacific Election Pulse’ is an annual project examining the most consequential elections in the region and the most important for Australia’s strategic environment. In what was an ‘unprecedented’ year, Taiwan, Singapore, New Zealand, Myanmar, and the United States braved the challenge of conducting elections under the shadow of a pandemic. This diverse collection of views – from experts from different countries and fields – looks at how the Covid-19 pandemic has impacted the key elections in our region. A key challenge faced this year included countering misinformation, disinformation and cyber-enabled attempts at foreign interference, as in-person campaigning was restricted, and the virus forced campaign activities online. The victories of incumbents in Singapore, New Zealand, and Myanmar showed how effective responses to the pandemic granted legitimacy to governments. Taiwan also saw an electoral win by the sitting government. But this was largely a response to Xi Jinping’s harsh politics rather than the government’s pandemic response, as the election took place in January before Covid-19 spread globally. Conversely, in the US, the Trump administration’s disastrous response to the Covid-19 crisis resulted in a change of leadership. With the Biden administration preparing for the transition, partners and allies in the Indo-Pacific are growing more hopeful to see a return of a more engaged, predictable, or at least conventional, US foreign policy. The year has been short on good news, and the Indo-Pacific democracies, like all nations, have had their fair share of challenges. But despite the creeping trend of democratic decline globally – arguably exacerbated by the Covid-19 pandemic – the results show that democratic activism and accountability are doing well.
Topic:: Defense Policy, National Security, Elections, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Taiwan, Singapore, New Zealand, Myanmar, United States of America, and Indo-Pacific

16262. The influence environment: A survey of Chinese-language media in Australia

Author:: Alex Joske, Lin Li, Alex Pascoe, and Nathan Attrill
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
Abstract:: In the past two decades, Australia’s Chinese-language media landscape has undergone fundamental changes that have come at a cost to quality, freedom of speech, privacy and community representation. The diversity of Australia’s Chinese communities, which often trace their roots to Hong Kong, Southeast Asia and Taiwan as well as the People’s Republic of China, isn’t well reflected in the media sector. Persistent efforts by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) to engage with and influence Chinese language media in Australia far outmatch the Australian Government’s work in the same space. A handful of outlets generally offer high-quality coverage of a range of issues. However, CCP influence affects all media. It targets individual outlets while also manipulating market incentives through advertising, coercion and WeChat. Four of the 24 Australian media companies studied in this report show evidence of CCP ownership or financial support.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Media, Social Media, and Cyberspace
Political Geography:: China and Asia

16263. The US and the Israeli –Palestinian Conflict: One-state solution, two-state solution or no solution at all?

Author:: Raffaella A. Del Sarto, Rashid Khalidi, Gideon Levy, and Cengiz Günay
Publication Date:: 11-2020
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Austrian Institute for International Affairs (OIIP)
Abstract:: The online discussion explored the situation on the ground, elaborated on whether and how the Trump administration’s policies have impacted the conflict in the long-run, its repercussions on the broader Middle East region, and assess the role a Biden administration might play in the next future?
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Territorial Disputes, Conflict, Negotiation, Donald Trump, and Joe Biden
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and United States of America

16264. The US Elections 2020: What Future for Democracy, Social Movements, and Human Rights?

Author:: Deva Woodly, Tina Kempin Reuter, and Saskia Stachowitsch
Publication Date:: 11-2020
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Austrian Institute for International Affairs (OIIP)
Abstract:: While Joe Biden has won the US presidential elections, it is clear that the Trump presidency was not an aberration in the democratic tradition of the US, but reflects a broader shift towards authoritarian politics that is also mirrored on the global scale. This panel discussion reflects on the domestic and international effects of these shifts on social movements, marginalized populations, human rights, and global peace-making. Together with renowned experts, we will explore the future of social justice, inclusion, and participation in the US and beyond under a Biden administration that is faced with the conditions of populism, persistent white supremacy, and rising authoritarianism.
Topic:: Authoritarianism, Elections, Populism, Social Justice, Donald Trump, and Joe Biden
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

16265. The historical origins of global jihad, revisited

Author:: Thomas Hegghammer and Daniela Pisoiu
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: Austrian Institute for International Affairs (OIIP)
Abstract:: Where does transnational jihadism come from? Why did militant Islamists start targeting the West in the 1990s after decades of operating locally? In this lecture, Thomas Hegghammer revisited the historical origins of the phenomenon often referred to as "global jihadism". Using insights from his latest book, The Caravan: Abdallah Azzam and the Rise of Global Jihad (Cambridge, 2020), he argued that the standard narrative established in the years after 9/11 was too West-focused and state-centric, and that local politics and technology played a greater role than is often acknowledged.
Topic:: Science and Technology, History, Non State Actors, Transnational Actors, Violence, Islamism, and Jihad
Political Geography:: Global Focus

16266. Central Bank Digital Currencies: Tools for an Inclusive Future?

Author:: Eve Lee
Publication Date:: 09-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:: Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) have rapidly evolved from a sci-fi concept to a plausible alternative to cash that is being studied by central banks all over the world. According to a Belfer Center tracker, over 50 central banks have pursued or are engaging in CBDC work as of August 2020. However, while 10 central banks have already piloted or announced plans to pilot a CBDC in the near term, most are in the early stages of research and experimentation. In this brief, we outline the common motivations driving central bank work on CBDCs. We then explore CBDCs’ potential impacts on financial inclusion, a primary motivation in developing and emerging markets that has also gained significant traction in developed economies during the COVID-19 related global recession. We conclude that for CBDCs to achieve its financial inclusion goals, more technical advancement in offline adaptability and policy deliberations around issues of identity and traceability are needed.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Economics, International Trade and Finance, International Affairs, and Monetary Policy
Political Geography:: Global Focus

16267. The Public-Purpose Consortium: Enabling Emerging Technology with a Public Mission

Author:: Jake Taylor
Publication Date:: 10-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:: Imagine a speculative technology, one that is destined to change lives and improve the world, but also one where many scientific and practical questions remain to be answered. Companies and entrepreneurs, already seeing the potential, have begun spinning up new efforts and launching startups to realize products and services. You know that investors are likely underestimating both the difficulty posed by the technology and the long-term impact. The science and engineering remain far from that necessary to achieve those goals, much less understand the unintended consequences. You are now tasked with enabling the economic growth implied by these opportunities while ensuring both scientific progress and minimizing unintended negative outcomes. What do you do? Faced with this challenge in the still esoteric field of quantum information science, leaders in the Government and I worked with stakeholders from across the United States and around the world to build a foundational approach for this new technology. Rather than using a roadmap with product or milestone driven development, we instead focused on building a community around the emerging technologies and scientific challenges necessary to build quantum computers. These are devices that operate at the very limits set by nature in what and how they compute and are fantastically hard to create – so much so that their basic operation and architecture are areas of active research. And their impact is fantastically broad, thus the need to both temper expectations and enable cooperation. In executing a program to enable this new sector, we developed a specific approach for solving the challenge of blending profit motive and public good that leverages the mechanism of consortia. We are at a moment in time where cooperation between public-purpose stakeholders and profit-motive stakeholders can be an effective means of integrating public purpose into technology as it emerges. This brief covers the basic concept of a public-purpose consortium (PPC), examination of what combination of factors lead to their use for emerging technologies, and considers the key principles for organizing PPCs and enabling their success: Build Community, Enable Cooperation, Ensure Value, Institute Governance, and Keep It Lightweight.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Stakeholders, and Engineering
Political Geography:: Global Focus

16268. The Future of Carbon Offset Markets

Author:: Henry Lee and Abigail Mayer
Publication Date:: 10-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:: Corporations, organizations, and even governments are purchasing offsets to reduce their carbon footprint. This policy brief provides an overview of the offset process – who buys them, who produces them, and who certifies them; describes the emerging challenges facing this market; and makes recommendations for the future.
Topic:: Climate Change, Energy Policy, Carbon Emissions, and Decarbonization
Political Geography:: Global Focus

16269. Mis/ Disinformation and Cyber Incident Communications Response: Top Takeaways

Author:: Belfer Center
Publication Date:: 10-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:: The top priority in a cyber crisis or in the face of mis and disinformation, will be to maintain public trust. The most effective way to achieve that goal is to respond confidently and quickly. Although response to both types of incidents will differ, there are a number of common best practices you can apply in your preparation ahead of election day. This summary guide helps detail common and specific responses to each type of incident.
Topic:: Communications, Elections, Misinformation, and Cyberspace
Political Geography:: Global Focus

16270. Final Week Cybersecurity Considerations: Top Takeaways

Author:: Belfer Center
Publication Date:: 10-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:: This election has already faced threats from cyber adversaries seeking to influence its outcome. The joint CISA-FBI alert confirming Russian state-sponsored activity targeting government networks on October 22 builds on other advisories around potential cyberattacks on election systems ahead of the election, including advisories of DDOS attacks against election infrastructure. Making unplanned or last-minute changes ahead of election day can introduce serious risks, especially given the short window to test changes. Here are some considerations as you work to address and prepare to counter potential cyber threats.
Topic:: Security, Science and Technology, Infrastructure, Elections, and Cybersecurity
Political Geography:: Russia and United States of America

16271. What We Can Learn From the Wonder Women of COVID-19

Author:: Izzy Ernst and Grace Pringle
Publication Date:: 11-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:: The one good news story of 2020 seems to have been the rise of female leadership. In April, a Washington Post headline declared that female leaders were “hailed as voices of reason amid the coronavirus chaos.” High-profile figures like German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen emerged as perfect foils to UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson and U.S. President Donald Trump. Since then, our research confirmed that male-led countries had 1.9 times more COVID-19 deaths per million than their female counterparts during the first five months after outbreak or roughly the first wave of coronavirus.1 However, despite the appealing headlines, our research also found that there is a catch: female leaders did not perform better because of their sex, but rather because of their leadership skills. We tested four popular theories commentators put forward to explain the coronavirus gender gap. Were female leaders more likely to: involve experts in decisions, show empathy, communicate instructions clearly, or take early action to avoid loss of life? These traits roughly track with leadership research that suggests that female leaders are more likely to be participative or democratic, other-directed, and risk averse. In contrast, male leaders tend to be authoritarian, self-directed, and risk-takers. These trends may be explained by socialization and experiences of women. As Professor Zoe Marks notes, “women in male-dominated fields often incur penalties for assertive, power-seeking behavior.” Men and white people also tend to perceive risks as less likely than women and people of color respectively. However, it turns out none of the leadership behaviors we analyzed are correlated with women any more than with men. Successful leaders with the fewest COVID-19 deaths—wonder woman New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern as well as Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison—share two leadership traits in common: early, decisive action and clear, instructive communication. They locked down earlier and communicated clearly, plainly explaining harsh realities, instructions and warnings. No one can argue that President Trump’s statement that “like a miracle, [COVID] will disappear” has aged well.
Topic:: Women, Leadership, Crisis Management, Public Health, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Global Focus

16272. An Intelligence Agenda for a New Administration

Author:: Belfer Center
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:: America’s Intelligence Community (IC) faces a daunting array of traditional national security challenges. Terrorism remains a persistent global problem in form of Islamic extremism as well as far-right nationalism. Russia, China and other nation state threats have become a higher priority after a long period of neglect. Regional conflicts simmer and occasionally boil over, reminding us that our agencies must provide global coverage. And we are now engaged in perpetual cyber conflict, with ambient digital espionage and conflict raging across global networks. At the same time, the Covid-19 pandemic has shown us that there are other threats to national security which require our intelligence agencies to broaden their focus beyond the familiar threats that have defined their missions since inception. America’s intelligence agencies must be able to support our national response to the existential challenges of our time - pandemic and biothreats, climate change, and nuclear insecurity. Each represents a high probability and high consequence set of risks for the nation and the world. As a President-Elect Biden’s team prepares to assume power, it should examine: Independence: Has political interference degraded the IC’s capability to collect and protect intelligence, and has the IC’s independence and objectivity eroded? How can we ensure that political interference never degrades IC capabilities and objectives? Priorities: How well prepared is our Intelligence Community (IC) to play its role of providing warning, perspective and options in a new world of disinformation, pandemic and climate change? Keeping Pace: Has the IC’s ability to provide intelligence needed to keep America safe kept pace with the rapid changes in technology and society?
Topic:: Security, Intelligence, and Public Policy
Political Geography:: North America

16273. China’s National Carbon Market: Paradox and Potential

Author:: Cecilia Springer
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:: China announced it would launch a national carbon market in 2017, yet this policy is taking years to come into effect. What will it take for a carbon market to work in command-and-control China? This policy brief explores an understudied challenge—emissions accounting—and identifies potential opportunities that have arisen in the first phase of China’s national carbon market.
Topic:: Climate Change, Economics, Energy Policy, Environment, Natural Resources, and Carbon Emissions
Political Geography:: China and Asia-Pacific

16274. A Proposal for a Stability Mechanism for the Gulf Cooperation Countries

Author:: Rabah Arezki and Aitor Erce
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:: The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries—Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE)—face the dual shock of a pandemic caused by the novel coronavirus and a persistent collapse in oil prices. Because of the dual shock, the growth downgrade for the GCC as a whole is 7.5 percentage points in 2020 (World Bank, 2020). This can be considered as the cost of the dual shock—Arezki and others, 2020. But there is wide uncertainty about the estimate, which could be even higher. GCC countries must act collectively and boldly today to reduce the risk of an economic depression. A delayed and tenuous response may force authorities to spend even more in the future to, among other things, rescue cash-strapped members, as non-performing loans and bankruptcies become widespread (Ari et al., 2020). A powerful joint mechanism to cushion the blow, and ensure solidarity and stability of the GCC is warranted.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Civil War, Political stability, Conflict, and Gulf Cooperation Council
Political Geography:: Middle East

16275. Technology Factsheet: Synthetic Biology

Author:: Colin O'Leary
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:: Synthetic biology (sometimes referred to as “SynBio”) is broadly defined as the application of engineering principles to biology, and in practice, refers to emerging technology that allows living organisms to be modified to serve user-defined purposes. While traditional biotechnology involves the transfer of smaller amounts of genetic material from one biological species to another, synthetic biology will permit the inten- tional construction of an entire organism.1 It has the potential to allow scientists to design living organisms distinct from any found in nature and to redesign existing organisms to have novel or enhanced qualities.2 The use cases of synthetic biology range from developing new therapeutics and vaccines for infectious disease to manufacturing novel biomaterials, biosensors, and biofuels. As scientists better understand biological systems, the potential applications of SynBio are anticipated to expand in scale and scope. The continued growth of the bioeconomy—defined as the “production, utilization and conservation of biological resources, including related knowledge, science, technology, and innovation, to provide information, products, processes and services across all economic sectors”—is giving space for synthetic biology technology to become a more significant part of the overall economic landscape.3 As with any technology that has a high potential for impact, SynBio presents a variety of pronounced opportunities, as well as risks. As the technology continues to mature and the number of market-ready applications grows, it is important for policymakers to consider how to promote the large number of opportunities the technology presents in the space of health and medicine, energy production, environmental recovery, food production, and more, while simultaneously protecting the public from foreseeable negative impli- cations and risks, such as weaponization, consumer safety, and ecological stability. Since synthetic biology bears significant similarities to previous biotechnology research on genetical- ly-modified organisms and recombinant DNA, existing regulations in the United States place the majority of synthetic biology products into the current biotechnology regulatory framework. As SynBio becomes more prominent though, it will be important for regulatory schemes to uniquely target the technology and its implications beyond those captured through biotechnology frameworks. Policymakers must continue to engage in the progression of the technology, understanding how regulation and governance must evolve to ensure the public can realize the opportunities, while being protected from the risks.
Topic:: Health, Science and Technology, and Biology
Political Geography:: Global Focus

16276. Technology Factsheet: Quantum Computing

Author:: Akhil Iyer
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:: Quantum computing refers to the use of quantum properties—the properties of nature on an atomic scale—to solve complex problems much faster than conventional, or classical, computers. Quantum computers are not simply faster versions of conventional computers, though they are a fundamentally different computing paradigm due to their ability to leverage quantum mechanics. Harnessing quantum properties, namely the ability for the quantum computer bits (called “qubits”) to exist in multiple and interconnected states at one time, opens the door for highly parallel information processing with unprecedented new opportunities. Quantum computing could potentially be applied to solve important problems in fields such as cryptography, chemistry, medicine, material science, and machine learning that are computationally hard for conventional computers. Although it is still unclear which specific tasks can benefit from parallelized quantum processing, known as quantum parallelism, it is expected that solutions to a number of problems, especially those related to optimization, can be greatly accelerated by using a quantum computer. Though the field is still in its early stages, the anticipated opportunities offered by the unique computational power of quantum computers have attracted investment from not only research universities, but also startups, technology giants like Google, IBM and Microsoft, and directed investment by governments around the world. This cross-sectoral ecosystem has supported recent progress in underlying hardware, software, and algorithms necessary to make the computers work. The field has seen rapid advancement, however systems that can accomplish various kinds of computation, and especially those that can be commercially viable, are still likely to be decades away. There are expected to be some near- term applications on the horizon though, making quantum computing as relevant as ever. Currently, U.S. governance and regulation regarding quantum computing—a subset of the broader field of quantum information science, which also encompasses quantum communication and quantum sensing—focus on investments in the technical knowhow, collaborative research ecosystem, and human capital required to advance the technology. Given quantum computing’s potential for impact, especially in the fields of digital security, healthcare, energy, and machine learning and artificial intelligence, it is important for policymakers to understand the likely trajectories of the technology over the coming decades, as well as the pace of development both within the U.S. and abroad. Furthermore, policymakers must consider how to effectively promote the development, application and implementation of general-purpose quantum technologies to realize their larger economic and social benefits, while simultaneously mitigating foreseeable risks to privacy, safety, security, and inclusion.
Topic:: Security, Science and Technology, Governance, Regulation, Privacy, and Quantum Computers
Political Geography:: United States of America

16277. Should Regulators Make Electric Utilities Pay Customers for Poor Reliability?

Author:: Shefali Khanna and Kevin Rowe
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:: In September 2017, the Delhi Electricity Regulatory Commission (DERC) required that the city’s regulated electricity distribution utilities pay compensation to customers experiencing power outages of three hours or longer. The measure was intended to incentivize the utilities to invest in the infrastructure and management practices needed to deliver higher levels of service quality. In 2019, India’s central government announced that it was considering rolling out a similar policy for utilities across the country. Can outage compensation policies help India’s power system achieve better reliability for all customers? This policy brief describes the persistent challenge of poor electricity reliability in India and how it interacts with key regulatory policies, analyzes Delhi’s experience with outage compensation since 2017, and highlights areas for additional economic and policy research on this topic.
Topic:: Energy Policy, Environment, Natural Resources, Infrastructure, Economic Policy, and Electricity
Political Geography:: South Asia, India, and Asia-Pacific

16278. Systemic Racism: Why did violent protests erupt in the USA?

Author:: Hussam Ibrahim
Publication Date:: 07-2020
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: Since May 25, the US has witnessed demonstrations in several cities due to killing of an African-American citizen. The escalation of events have led to acts of violence and vandalism, raising several questions around: the background of the protestors, their demands and their motives, and most importantly, whether such protests would in fact lead to a change in the institutional framework under which systemic racism has prevailed within the US.
Topic:: Social Justice, Protests, Police, Racism, Systemic Racism, and Police Brutality
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

16279. Paradox of Relations: Russian - Turkish Relations in the Syrian and Libyan Fronts

Author:: Dania Koleilat Khatib and Aref Bijan
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:: Over the last few years, Russia has emerged as a significant power broker and military actor in the Middle East. Russia's intervention in the Syrian crisis since 2015 has revived its relations with neighboring countries. This increase in Russia's activity has led to convergence and divergence with other countries in the region. One of those countries is Turkey, which had cooperated at times and had differences at times with Russia in the Middle East, especially in the Syrian and the Libyan crises. Ankara and Moscow are fully engaged in the global competition trying to increase their power and influence. They face off in Syria and Libya. In Syria, Turkey supports the rebels in the North West while Russia supports the Assad regime. In Libya, Turkey supports the Government of National Accord (GNA) while Russia supports Libyan National Army (LNA). Their relation becomes more intricate as both parties got involved in the Caucus, a region of prime importance to both countries. In the vicinity of Russia, the oil route goes Tbilisi-Baku ending up in Ceyhan Turkey. While Turkey supports Azerbaijan, Russia supports Armenia. The Caucus crisis showed how the two countries are rivals that are ready to accommodate each other on a quid pro quo basis. The cease happened concurrently with a partial withdrawal of Turkey from some posts in the North West in Syria. Was there an agreement between Erdogan and Putin in this regard? There are no proofs; however, the various events that are happening from the Caucus to North Africa suggest that those two powers are rivals that are ready to accommodate each other. To add to that, the American retrenchment has encouraged the two powers to flex their muscles in the region. Therefore, given the developments in the region, this article has tried to examine the paradox of Russian-Turkish relations and their strategy in Libya and Syria.
Topic:: Bilateral Relations, Conflict, Strategic Competition, and Proxy War
Political Geography:: Russia, Eurasia, Turkey, Middle East, and Libya

16280. The European Defence Fund and Norway

Author:: Karsten Friis
Publication Date:: 10-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: The establishment of the European Defence Fund (EDF) represents an important step towards a more coherent European security architecture. It is broadly recognised that Europe needs to reduce duplication between, as well as the number of, weapons systems and platforms. The EU recently opened up for associated countries to participate in the Fund, but the Norwegian government has failed to set aside money for the EDF, despite official policy to participate.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, European Union, and Trade
Political Geography:: Europe and Norway

16281. Russia’s view of Georgia: a NATO proxy yet again?

Author:: Julie Wilhelmsen
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: After the crises in Ukraine, and despite the Georgian government’s allegedly more pragmatic attitude towards Russia, official statements from Moscow increasingly project Georgia as hostile. This may be the result of the Kremlin stepping up a propaganda campaign to put pressure on Georgia, but it is also linked to growing perceptions of Georgia as becoming an agent of NATO. Moreover, Russia’s increasingly insistent rhetorical and practical support for the independent status of the two Georgian breakaway republics, Abkhazia and South Ossetia, is still framed with reference to Kosovo as a tit-for-tat in a conflict with the West. In parallel with this hardening in Russian views, there is hardly any diplomatic contact between Russia and Georgia. The regional multilateral frameworks have become dysfunctional, obstructed by polarization. Further Georgian NATO integration could entail an increasing risk of war, unless frank discussions and engagement with Russia can be promoted.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, NATO, and Proxy War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Eurasia, and Georgia

16282. Brothers in Arms and Faith? The Emerging US-Central and Eastern Europe ‘Special Relationship’

Author:: Vibeke Schou Tjalve and Minda Holm
Publication Date:: 01-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: In this policy note, we explore the nature, strength and tensions of the contemporary US-Central Eastern Europe relationship. We describe the expanding US-CEE ‘brotherhood in arms’: growing trade relations, intensified military cooperation, and rekindled diplomatic ties. Further, we unpack the striking and largely ignored dimensions of the US-CEE ‘brotherhood in faith’: the many ways in which the United States and Central and Eastern Europe are tied together by overlapping ideologies of national conservatism and a particular version of Christian ‘family values’. This involves addressing the complexities of an increasingly influential and ambitious Visegrád Group, whose key players – Poland and Hungary – may be brothers, but are by no means twins. It also means raising some broader, burning discussions about the future of NATO and the meaning of ‘Europe’. Universalist, multicultural and postnational? Or conservative, Christian and sovereigntist?
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, NATO, Military Affairs, and Trade
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe, North America, Central Europe, and United States of America

16283. China’s role in the Sustainable Development Agenda: Considerations for Norway

Author:: Hans Jørgen Gåsemyr
Publication Date:: 03-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: China’s role as an international development actor is growing, with real and increasing potential to impact Sustainable Development Goals (SDG). On some issues, Chinese initiatives align well with Norwegian interests, but China’s approach to development also diverges on some key practices and norms. While Chinese international efforts meet mixed reactions, Norway should stake out its own course for when and how to engage with China over SDGs.
Topic:: Development, International Organization, United Nations, and Sustainable Development Goals
Political Geography:: China, Europe, Norway, and Asia

16284. COVID-19 and the African Union. Challenges, prospects and side-effects

Author:: Cedric H. de Coning
Publication Date:: 04-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: The African Union is coordinating the effort to contain the spread of COVID-19 in Africa, but the measures introduced are also significantly disrupting the reforms, programmes and operations of the AU.
Topic:: International Organization, African Union, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Africa

16285. Russian approaches to military technology. The Northern dimension

Author:: Jakub M. Godzimirski
Publication Date:: 04-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: This policy brief presents the main findings of a project on Russian approaches to technological challenges, and the implications for security developments in the High North. It begins by examining the Russian debate on the technological challenges identified as posing a threat to national security by the country’s policymakers. Next, it explores how these challenges have been dealt with by Russia in the post-2014 context, paying special attention to developments in the field of military technology and how President Putin has taken advantage of these to address questions of strategic balance. Finally, the brief sets out the strategic implications for Norway, as NATO’s representative in this northern corner and Russia’s direct neighbour.
Topic:: Development, Military Affairs, and Vladimir Putin
Political Geography:: Russia and Norway

16286. The impact of COVID-19 on the performance of peace operations

Author:: Cedric H. de Coning
Publication Date:: 04-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: Between the African Union, European Union, OSCE, NATO and United Nations there are approximately 160,000 civilian, police and military personnel deployed in more than 50 missions. These missions have all been forced to take unprecedented steps to adapt and cope with the COVID-19 pandemic. This may be just the beginning and much more significant reductions and changes in the way these operations function may be needed over the coming months.
Topic:: United Nations, International Affairs, European Union, African Union, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Africa

16287. China, India and the political economy of medical supplies

Author:: Stein Sundstol Eriksen
Publication Date:: 04-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: Summary: • The pandemic and lockdowns threaten the supply of medicines, especially from India • Poor countries relying on supplies of cheap Indian medicines are especially vulnerable • New medicines and vaccines are likely to be developed and patented by Western companies and will be expensive. • Norway should help fund the supply of medicines and promote reforms of patent rules to make medicines more affordable
Topic:: Political Economy, Asia, Vaccine, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: China, South Asia, India, and Asia

16288. Lessons from the Ebola Crisis in West Africa: Community engagement, crisis communication and countering rumours

Author:: Frida Bjørneseth, Morten Bøås, Henriette U. Erstad, Alessia Iocchi, and Kari M. Osland
Publication Date:: 04-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: What lessons can we draw from the 2014-2016 Ebola crisis in Guinea, Liberia, Sierra Leone? While both the outbreak itself and the context is different, there are enough similarities between the Ebola crisis and COVID-19 to extract useful lessons and best practices. In this research note, the focus is on three key lessons from the Ebola experience: community engagement, crisis communication and countering the rumour mill. In the world’s most fragile states, an uncontrolled outbreak of COVID-19 would have devastating consequences for the population. In a scenario where the spread of the coronavirus is under control in large parts of the world, the survival of COVID-19 in fragile states would also most certainly be a source for new waves of infections to the rest of the world. Not only do fragile states lack capacity to react adequately on their own, but their ability to utilise external support and assistance is limited due to low absorption capacity.
Topic:: Ebola, Crisis Management, Public Health, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Africa and West Africa

16289. Preventing Organized Crime. The Need for a Context-Sensitive, System-Wide Approach.

Author:: Kari M. Osland and Arthur Boutellis
Publication Date:: 04-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: Recent years have seen important developments regarding the UN Security Council and the UN Secretariat. The Security Council, which has increasingly recognized organized crime as a serious threat to international peace and security—especially in relation to terrorism—has begun using sanctions to deal with organized crime and trafficking in Mali and Libya. Further, serious and organized crime (SOC) police units have been established in several UN field operations, including in the Central African Republic, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and Mali. However, there is still no UN-wide policy on organized crime, and the issue has been conspicuously absent from recent strategic documents such as the Action for Peacekeeping Declaration (A4P). This report argues that there is need for a UN system-wide approach to peace operations for preventing and addressing organized crime, and its links to terrorism. To achieve this, UN member states and the UN Secretariat should seek to consolidate and broaden its nascent law enforcement capacity- building police approach into a context sensitive, system-wide approach. Six specific recommendations for the way forward are offered.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Security, International Organization, United Nations, Peace, and Organized Crime
Political Geography:: Global Focus

16290. COVID-19 will change the way the UN conducts peacekeeping operations in the future Published: 6 May 2020

Author:: Cedric H. de Coning
Publication Date:: 05-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: The COVID-19 pandemic has significantly disrupted UN peacekeeping operations. In the short-term, activities have been reduced to the most critical, rotations have been frozen, and most staff are working remotely. Most of the missions have adapted remarkably well, but even more extreme changes are likely in the medium term, as the global economic recession that will follow in the wake of the virus may force UN peace operations to drastically contract in size and scope.
Topic:: United Nations, Peacekeeping, Peace, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Africa and Global Focus

16291. The Impact of Covid-19 on the Women, Peace and Security Agenda.

Author:: Kari M. Osland, Maria Gilen Røysamb, and Jenny Nortvedt
Publication Date:: 05-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: Summary: • Women appear to be disproportionately affected by Covid-19 • Pushback on global commitment to gender equality • Gender equality and human development are correlated: focussing on gender equality will have a catalytic effect on the SDGs • The increasing strain on peace operations is likely to have a negative effect on the WPS agenda.
Topic:: Security, International Organization, United Nations, Women, Peace, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Global Focus

16292. Conventional arms control on the Korean Peninsula: The current state and prospects

Author:: Yong-Sup Han
Publication Date:: 05-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: At the end of 2017, the Korean Peninsula reached the brink of a nuclear war, as the US president Donald Trump and the North Korean leader Kim Jong-un exchanged words of nuclear threats each other. A tug of war as to whose nuclear button is bigger and stronger exacerbated the nuclear crisis. However, the South Korean President Moon Jae-in intervened to resolve the crisis by taking advantage of the Pyeongchang Winter Olympics. In doing so, President Moon intended to pursue denuclearisation and peace-building on the Korean Peninsula at the same time. North Korean Chairman Kim Jong-un responded positively to the South Korean call to hold the inter-Korean summit and the Trump-Kim summit. In order to end the Korean war and promote peace-building on the Korean Peninsula including termination of hostile acts on inter-Korean relations, the two Koreas adopted the April 27 Panmunjom Declaration, the September 19th Pyongyang Joint Declaration and the Inter-Korean Military Agreement at their summit in 2018. The Military Agreement is aimed at reducing tension and building trust between the two Koreas through conventional arms control, while the North Korean nuclear issue is being resolved through the US-DPRK summit. The September 19th Military Agreement is a modest but remarkable success in arms control history when compared with a long-term stalemate or even retreat in the contemporary international arms control arena. Indeed, arms control is at its lowest point in history, so dim are its prospects. Nevertheless, heated debates are taking place, both at home inside South Korea and abroad, over the legitimacy and rationality of the Sept. 19th Military Agreement. With little progress on the denuclearisation issue at the Kim-Trump summit and no sign of easing economic sanctions on Pyongyang, North Korea has test-fired short-range missiles ten times to exert pressure on the United States, undermining peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula. Against this backdrop, this policy brief intends to analyse the true meaning of the September 19 Military Agreement between the two Koreas, to identify its problems and policy implications in order to draw up supplementary measures to implement it successfully. Furthermore, the paper will draw some implications for the relationship between progress on North Korea’s denuclearisation issue and further conventional arms control on the Korean Peninsula.
Topic:: Conflict Prevention, Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:: South Korea, North Korea, North America, and United States of America

16293. COVID-19 in Latin America: Challenges, responses, and consequences

Author:: Peder Østebø and Vegard Bye
Publication Date:: 05-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: While containment efforts were quickly implemented in many countries, COVID-19 may still prove to have a long-lasting effect in Latin America, a region already marked by economic disarray and political instability. Economic projections suggest that Latin American economies will be among the most affected by the current halt in global trade and consumption. As many countries have recently faced political turmoil, massive containment efforts raise a number of questions on legitimacy and citizen-state relations. In some countries, democratic processes essential for the upholding of democratic legitimacy have been halted. In Brazil, the central government’s handling of the crisis has been an important factor contributing to a severe political crisis. A geopolitical vacuum may provide China with an opportunity to increase its importance for the region.
Topic:: Economics, Geopolitics, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Destabilization
Political Geography:: China and Latin America

16294. The spiralling effects of the Sino-American trade war

Author:: Marc Lanteigne
Publication Date:: 06-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: Almost two years ago, China and the United States instigated a trade conflict which has had serious international effects, a situation since exacerbated by the Covid-19 pandemic. What has truly made a solution to this conflict elusive, however, is that its origins lie well beyond questions of trade deficits and fair competition, and are instead based on the looming question of a power transition between to the two states. The effects of this divergence are beginning to be observed in several economic realms, including the financial and the technological. Many other actors in the global economy have begun to experience the side effects of this completion, and may now have to face difficult choices about how to balance between these two emerging poles in the current fragile global economy.
Topic:: Economic Growth, Conflict, Trade, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

16295. Intergovernmental checkmate on cyber? Processes on cyberspace in the United Nations

Author:: Erik Kursetgjerde
Publication Date:: 10-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: Cyberspace is an increasingly controversial field on the international agenda. Despite the fact that processes on the thematic have been going on in the UN since 1998, a more significant international agreement is needed on what basic principles should apply in cyberspace. Small states have the opportunity of pushing cybersecurity as a thematic priority in the United Nations Security Council – a path Norway could pursue in its forthcoming 2021–2022 Security Council term. The attribution of the assumed Russian cyber operations toward the Norwegian parliament earlier this year actualizes the addressing of the issue in the Council. The policy brief discusses the GGE negotiations on cyberspace in 2015 and 2017 - and gives policy recommendations on the way forward.
Topic:: United Nations, International Affairs, and Cyberspace
Political Geography:: Global Focus

16296. In the shadow of the virus Varieties of power in the COVID-19 crisis in Venezuela

Author:: Peder Østebø
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: While all states face massive challenges when responding to COVID-19, some are in a more precarious position than others. In Venezuela, the pandemic arrived at the worst possible time for its citizens. Facing one of the deepest economic crises outside of wartime in recent years, its consequences have spilled over to all aspect of social life.1 However, the timing seems to have suited the leaders of the Venezuelan regime well. Rather than constituting a threat to the stability of a regime that has lost both democratic legitimacy and the capacity to provide services and security, the government of Nicolas Maduro (2013-present) has seemingly managed to consolidate itself after several years of instability. The starting point of the discussion is an apparent paradox: how can a regime with neither legitimacy nor capacity, two commonly invoked criteria for effective crisis management, strengthen itself during a crisis such as that spurred by COVID-19? The brief presents an overview of how the Venezuelan regime has responded to COVID-19, and how the government of Nicolás Maduro has applied different strategies to consolidate a favorable political status quo. It takes as its starting point three concepts, namely “state capacity,” “legitimacy,” and “power,” all of which are frequently upheld as fundamental for understanding the varying ways in which states have responded to the pandemic. It highlights how relative power relations have shifted in recent years, and how the pandemic has contributed to skewing the balance of power further in favor of the Maduro government.
Topic:: Government, Health, Crisis Management, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: South America, Central America, and Venezuela

16297. Measuring Russia’s attention to Europe and the world

Author:: Kristian Lundby Gjerde
Publication Date:: 12-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: Based on a mapping of mentions of country names in more than 30,000 Russian official speeches, press conferences, meeting transcripts, and official statements, this brief provides insights into changes to Russia’s engagement with the world during the 21st century. Without disentangling the subtleties of relations – such as their security, economic, or cultural dimensions and their benign or adversarial features – this approach allows the brief to sketch answers to questions that would otherwise be left to guesswork.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, Economics, and Culture
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Eurasia

16298. The coronavirus pandemic and its challenges to women’s work in Latin America

Author:: Diana Gutiérrez, Guillermina Martin, and Hugo Nopo
Publication Date:: 11-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Group for the Analysis of Development (GRADE)
Abstract:: The coronavirus pandemic has spread throughout the world and Latin America has not been exempt from its health, economic and social impacts. The economic shutdown, as a result of a combination of stringent measures (self-quarantines, mandatory lockdowns, limited capacity in shops, factories and offices, border closures, etc.), is having a profound economic and social impact. In the labor market it has shocked both supply and demand. Within households, it has resulted in an increase in the unpaid workload, burdening women disproportionately, further reducing the time they can allocate to productive activities. The crisis’s impacts and depth are felt differently by they can widen existing gender gaps. In this paper, the authors explore the impacts of the crisis on employment in sixteen countries in the region. In addition, they analize gender impacts through four lenses: young people, people living in poverty, people living in rural areas and heads of the family. Researchers present a set of policy option aimed at integrating the gender approach into the entire pandemic world. Emphasizing the need for cross-sectional solutions, the authors propose policies in three main areas: the home, work and the spaces between work and home. This will enable socio-economic recovery policies to not only soften short-term impacts, but also further equal opportunities for women and men in the medium and long terms.
Topic:: Economics, Gender Issues, Health, International Political Economy, Women, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Global Health
Political Geography:: Latin America

16299. How a pinch analysis can help visualise emission cuts for developing countries - Philippines

Author:: Dominic Foo and Raymond Tan
Publication Date:: 03-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Asia Research Institute, University of Nottingham
Abstract:: Policy makers should use the carbon emissions pinch analysis (CEPA) as a graphical technique to allow the energy-climate nexus to be analysed visually and easily. This will help decision makers achieve the emission cuts they need. We illustrate the usefulness of CEPA by applying it to the case of the Philippines as a representative developing country.
Topic:: Developing World, Sustainable Development Goals, Sustainability, and Carbon Emissions
Political Geography:: Philippines and Global Focus

16300. How a pinch analysis can help visualise emission cuts for transition economies

Author:: Dominic Foo, Raymond Tan, and Purusothmn Nair
Publication Date:: 03-2020
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Asia Research Institute, University of Nottingham
Abstract:: Policy makers should use the carbon emissions pinch analysis (CEPA) as a graphical technique to allow the energy-climate nexus to be analysed visually and easily. This will help decision makers achieve the emission cuts they need. We illustrate the usefulness of CEPA by applying it to the case of Malaysia as a representative for transition economies.
Topic:: Climate Change, Energy Policy, Sustainable Development Goals, Renewable Energy, Economic Development, Sustainability, and Carbon Emissions
Political Geography:: Malaysia

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COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS