- CIAO Search Results

1801. Structural transformation and sources of growth in Turkey

Author:: Ahmet Ihsan Kaya and Cumhur Çiçekçi
Publication Date:: 06-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: This paper provides a comprehensive analysis of the supply and demand side of structural transformation in Turkey. Using the GGDC/UNU-WIDER Economic Transformation Database, we find that labour productivity improvements explain more than half of economic growth in the period 1980–2021. This is mainly thanks to within-sector productivity improvements, while the contribution of structural change declines over time. Time-series regression analysis shows that structural change is driven by per capita income growth and financial openness but is halted by trade integration. Furthermore, decomposition analysis from input– output tables demonstrates that domestic final demand has been the main source of output growth since 1980 and the contribution of export expansion has increased over time, but import dependency has persisted. The intermediate goods industry stands out as the locomotive sector in the economy throughout the entire period according to forward and backward linkage analysis.
Topic:: Labor Issues, Economic Growth, Productivity, Income, Supply and Demand, and Structural Transformation
Political Geography:: Turkey and Middle East

1802. Structural change and the National Initiative for Human Development in Morocco

Author:: Al-mouksit Akim and Wissal Sahel
Publication Date:: 06-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: This paper aims to revisit the pace and patterns of structural change in Morocco with a renewed perspective focusing on subnational trends to document the macro patterns. In that perspective, we first build a within-country sectoral longitudinal dataset covering employment and value added (VA) that expands the international databases mostly used in the literature. Based on this novel dataset, our results shed light on the different contributions of subnational units (regions) to labour productivity growth and, subsequently, structural change. Taking advantage of this novel dataset, we use an instrumental variable (IV) strategy to estimate the impact of the National Initiative for Human Development (NIHD) programme on labour productivity growth and both of its components: the between (structural change) and the within components. We find that the NIHD programme positively affects productivity growth overall, mainly through structural change. The results are driven by urban areas and the participation of local actors such as associations or cooperatives in the management of NIHD projects.
Topic:: Labor Issues, Economy, Human Development, Productivity, and Structural Transformation
Political Geography:: North Africa and Morocco

1803. Forced migration, aid effectiveness, and the humanitarian–development nexus: The case of Germany’s P4P programme

Author:: Stefan Leiderer and Helge Roxin
Publication Date:: 06-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: Bridging the gap between humanitarian assistance and development cooperation has been a contentious issue in academia and development practice for decades. Drawing on an evaluation of Germany’s ‘Partnership for Prospects’ initiative, this paper argues that, whilst the supplement of ‘peacebuilding’ to the nexus (humanitarian–development–peacebuilding [HDP] nexus) brought an important context factor into the discussion in an environment of conflict, it is only of marginal help in a context of forced migration to neighbouring countries of a given conflict. For the context of host countries of refugees in a protracted crisis, it is more relevant that host countries show ownership and reliability in their policies to create long-term perspectives for refugees. These policies in turn need to be embedded in reliable rules (polity) and negotiation processes (politics) in host countries. Consequently, the paper suggests that a ‘HD–Triple-P’ nexus would take the necessary political dimension into account more adequately. However, it might also mark the boundary as to what development politics can achieve.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Development, Humanitarian Aid, International Cooperation, Refugees, Conflict, and Forced Migration
Political Geography:: Europe and Germany

1804. Structural transformation and international trade: Evidence from the China shock

Author:: Clément Nedoncelle and Julien Wolfersberger
Publication Date:: 05-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: How does international trade affect structural transformation in developing countries? We use data on sectoral allocation of labour and value-added in 46 developing economies over the period 1995–2017 and exploit for identification plausibly exogenous variation in manufacturing imports from China. We find that the so-called ‘China shock’ largely slows down the transformation of low- and middle-income economies out of agriculture. In our main specification industrialization decreases by 0.49 per cent on average for each additional per cent of manufacturing imports from China. It highlights a competition effect where exposure to Chinese imports is largely detrimental to structural transformation. These results hold across geographical regions, with a difference in Sub-Saharan Africa, where international trade causes an increase in the size of the services sector.
Topic:: Development, Economies, Trade, Industrialization, and Structural Transformation
Political Geography:: Global Focus

1805. Digital de-industrialization, global value chains, and structural transformation: Empirical evidence from low- and middle-income countries

Author:: Karishma Banga, Pankhury Harbansh, and Surendar Singh
Publication Date:: 05-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: Digitalization and shifting patterns of globalization are fast changing the rules of the game for countries embarking on a path of industrialization. In this study, we empirically examine the impact of digitalization and global value chains on structural transformation using a crosscountry panel of 51 economies in the GGDC/UNU-WIDER Economic Transformation Database for the period 1990–2018. The analysis is based on a novel cross-country panel combining information from the Economic Transformation Database with the UNCTAD EORA data set, World Development Indicators, and Penn World Tables. Structural transformation is examined through changes across three variables: changes in manufacturing labour productivity, manufacturing employment share, and country-level structural change. To address issues related to endogeneity and country fixed effects, we use methodologies of fixed effects with instrumental variables and the two-step system GMM estimator. Results indicate that digitalization has a positive impact on structural change and manufacturing labour productivity but a negative impact on manufacturing employment share, indicating a reallocation of labour from the agricultural sector into services. Overall global value chain participation, and particularly forward participation, has a positive impact on structural change and manufacturing labour productivity.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Industrialization, Global Value Chains, and Structural Transformation
Political Geography:: Global Focus

1806. Gendered implications of the waves of COVID19 and economic upgrading trajectories in digital value chains: Insights from Kenyan agricultural platforms

Author:: Aarti Krishnan, Monica Nganga, and Tim Foster
Publication Date:: 05-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: Women play a critical yet under-researched role in global digital agri-food value chains, especially in smallholder production, which affects how they are able to economically upgrade (improve crop yields and product quality, and increase product diversification). Research suggests that women’s participation in agricultural platform-driven value chains facilitates the overcoming of barriers such as access to productive resources and engenders upgrading. However, studies have shown mixed evidence of the benefits of ag-platforms, and there are very limited data on female farmers’ contribution. Their economic upgrading possibilities are further compounded by the onset of shocks such as COVID-19. Predominantly only anecdotal evidence exists of how such shocks impact women in agriculture generally, let alone those using digital platforms. This paper seeks to answer the question: To what extent has the intensity of COVID-19 affected economic upgrading possibilities for women in platform-driven ag-value chains? The paper attempts to unpack economic upgrading through the different regimes of COVID-19, illustrating the dynamic effects experienced by women living through the shock. The paper uses a mixed methods approach, combining daily transaction data for over 3,000 farmers from 2019 to 2021 with 40 interviews of various value chain actors. The results show that women have been able to upgrade through the shock in terms of crop productivity and product quality more successfully than men, although there are differences across the different regimes of COVID-19; however, women have downgraded in terms of product diversification. The results are robust using pooled OLS, fixed effects, random effects, and seemingly unrelated regressions. The paper highlights a critical need to unpack shocks as a succession of regimes, rather than treating them as homogeneous entities, in order to provide a more holistic understanding of how women cope.
Topic:: Agriculture, COVID-19, Value Chains, and Gender
Political Geography:: Kenya and Africa

1807. Language and student learning: Evidence from an ethnographic study in Mozambique

Author:: Feliciano Chimbutane and Ritva Reinikka
Publication Date:: 05-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: This ethnographic study explores the implementation of bilingual education in Mozambique: how it is understood, adapted, and resisted by school directors, teachers, and local officials. Bilingual education uses local languages in early grades before a gradual shift into Portuguese, which most Mozambican children do not speak when entering school. Our study confirms that students participate actively and understand content better in bilingual classes. Regardless of education policy, school directors decide whether or not to form bilingual classes. They report pressure from parents for Portuguese-only instruction because of misunderstanding about the nature of bilingual education, poor resourcing, and fears about students failing tests. Some teachers demonstrate an impressive ability to provide bilingual education despite a lack of training and materials. Others resist and do little to hide their negative attitude. District officers are not able to supply schools with basic materials for local-language teaching. We conclude that bilingual education has lost momentum in Mozambique.
Topic:: Education, Ethnography, Language, and Policy Implementation
Political Geography:: Africa and Mozambique

1808. Welfare losses, preferences for redistribution, and political participation: Evidence from the United Kingdom’s age of austerity

Author:: Patricia Justino, Bruno Martorano, and Laura Metzger
Publication Date:: 05-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: This paper studies the effect of austerity on forms of political participation—including voting, appealing for reform, and peaceful protesting—and the role of preferences for redistribution in shaping the relationship between individual exposure to austerity and political participation. The paper focuses on the case of the United Kingdom (UK) where, between 2011 and 2019, wide-ranging austerity policies were introduced to deal with high public debt in the aftermath of the 2007–08 financial crisis. Cuts to government spending on public investment, services, and social protection, especially during the initial fiscal consolidation phase of 2011–15, led to significant welfare losses for the population. We provide evidence from observational microeconomic data and a large-scale online experiment in the UK showing that individual exposure to welfare losses from austerity increases political participation and strengthens preferences for government redistribution. The experimental data suggests that changes in individual preferences for redistribution significantly shape the effect of austerity on political participation.
Topic:: Austerity, Welfare, Redistribution, and Political Participation
Political Geography:: United Kingdom and Europe

1809. Sanction-busting through tax havens

Author:: Kerim Can Kavakli, Giovanna Marcolongo, and Diego Zambiasi
Publication Date:: 04-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: Financial sanctions, which aim to economically hurt a target by restricting its access to financial assets and markets, require the ability to identify who owns an asset. Although experts have long claimed that offshore financial centres that offer secrecy (‘tax havens’) undermine sanctions by hiding ownership information, so far data limitations have prevented a rigorous test of this claim. We overcome this constraint using data from the Bank of International Settlements and the Offshore Leaks Database and conduct the first systematic analysis of the role that tax havens play in financial sanction evasion. Our main finding is that sanction targets reduce their funds in sanctioning countries while increasing their funds in tax havens. This displacement effect is stronger when the sanction coalition includes the United States or comprises more FATF or OECD members. Lastly, whether a tax haven is in the sanctioning coalition does not seem to make a difference. These findings confirm that target countries evade sanctions by moving large portions of their funds from sanctioning countries to tax havens. More broadly, our paper highlights a novel and geostrategically important role of tax havens in global finance.
Topic:: Sanctions, Financial Markets, Leaks, and Tax Havens
Political Geography:: Global Focus

1810. Employment transitions with high unemployment and a small informal sector: Examining worker flows during normal and recessionary periods in South Africa

Author:: Shakeba Foster
Publication Date:: 04-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: This paper examines employment transitions in the South African labour market. Using the Post-Apartheid Labour Market Series, it analyses flows between the formal sector, informal sector, and unemployment, paying specific attention to how these flows differ during recessions. It explicitly considers heterogeneity within the informal sector by separately accounting for wage employment and self-employment as well as upper-tier and lower-tier informal sector segments. Transition probabilities are estimated using dynamic discrete choice models, and the extent to which transitions affect changes in real wages is estimated using a linear model. The results provide evidence of heterogeneity within the informal sector and segmentation between wage employment and self-employment. They also show a lag in the employment impacts following a recession. Finally, the paper provides suggestive evidence that the upper-tier segment of the informal sector acts as a buffer during recessionary periods by absorbing labour that would otherwise be unemployed or relegated to precarious lower-tier informal employment.
Topic:: Employment, Labor Market, Informal Economy, and Recession
Political Geography:: Africa and South Africa

1811. More information, better knowledge? The effects of information campaigns on aid beneficiaries’ knowledge of aid projects

Author:: Alexander De Juan, Paul Hofman, and Carlo Koos
Publication Date:: 04-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: Aid beneficiaries know very little about development interventions in their own communities. This lack of transparency and information is likely to reduce beneficiaries’ ability and willingness to become active in local development. It may also dampen intended aid effects on beneficiaries’ political and social attitudes. Can targeted information campaigns strengthen beneficiaries’ understanding of aid projects? We test the effects of two types of interventions: the provision of information only and the combination of information and feedback opportunities. We embed these interventions in a panel survey in rural Mali. Our information treatment is highly customized to specific local aid projects in respondents’ locations and corresponds to beneficiaries’ ex-ante information demands. Nonetheless, two months after the campaign, we find only small treatment effects on respondents’ project-specific knowledge (type, location) and no effects on their procedural knowledge (selection mechanisms). Only people with favourable ex-ante views of the state’s rule adherence and self-identified non-beneficiaries tend to update their views on procedural knowledge. Finally, we find that the combined information and feedback treatment has an effect on respondents’ subjective knowledge, which we interpret as promising mechanisms for engaging and identifying with aid projects.
Topic:: Fragile States, Development Aid, and Information
Political Geography:: Global Focus

1812. Armed group opportunism in the face of recent crises: COVID-19 and climate change

Author:: Siobhan O'Neil
Publication Date:: 04-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: Terrorist and other types of armed groups often exploit natural and human-made disasters and emergencies to advance their causes. This paper studies how some armed groups have responded to two recent global emergencies—climate change and the COVID-19 pandemic. It examines the messaging and actions of the Boko Haram in Nigeria and Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (FARC) dissident groups in Colombia in response to COVID and climatic shifts. The paper uses assessment methodology to look into unique survey evidence from each country in order to determine the public impact of armed group decision-making and responses to these emergencies. It also considers the potential policy implications of the findings presented herein.
Topic:: Climate Change, Non State Actors, Armed Forces, COVID-19, and Decision-Making
Political Geography:: Global Focus

1813. European aid to the MENA region after the Arab uprisings: A window of opportunity missed

Author:: Thilo Bodenstein and Mark Furness
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: European official development assistance to Middle Eastern and North African (MENA) countries increased sharply after 2011, ostensibly in support of the social, economic, and above all political changes demanded by the Arab uprisings. The subsequent turn to development policies driven by security and anti-migration agendas, especially following the Syria refugee crisis in the autumn of 2015, raises the question whether initial expressions of support for democratic transformation expressed by European donors were ever backed by concrete measures. This paper discusses this question with an exploratory review of the policy and practice dimensions of four European MENA aid programmes between 2011 and 2016. The policy dimension is explored via an analysis of available documents from the EU, France, Germany, and the UK. The practice dimension is discussed with reference to OECD-DAC aid data on bilateral aid to MENA countries, focusing on aid in the social infrastructure and services sector, and in particular on the government and civil society sub-category. Our analysis reveals that, while all donors promised to support democracy in MENA countries, none had a clear strategy for doing so via their development cooperation. At the practice level, while programmes and projects were aimed at supporting change in specific contexts, increases in aid were mostly unrelated to political change. This indicates a preference for avoiding risks, which served to underpin the region’s political and socio-economic status quo. Accordingly, European donors missed an opportunity to test whether their aid could make a difference in supporting democratic transformation in the MENA. The social, economic, and political tensions behind the Arab uprisings remain unresolved more than a decade on, meaning that there is likely a need to learn lessons from the period following 2011.
Topic:: Development, Democracy, Arab Spring, and Development Assistance
Political Geography:: Europe, Middle East, and North Africa

1814. India’s economic development since independence: An interpretative survey

Author:: Kunal Sen
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: When India became a republic in 1950, the economy was primarily agrarian, with threefifths of output originating from agriculture. In the sixty years since independence, there has been a significant transformation of economic activity away from agriculture, with less than one-fifth of output now originating from agriculture and the rest from manufacturing and services. Since the 1980s, along with structural change, there has been strong economic growth, till 2010, followed by a period of declining growth. In this paper, we describe India’s economic foundation, paying particular interest to the processes of economic growth and structural change. We begin with a brief discussion of the patterns of growth and structural change since independence. We then discuss the economic policies that have underpinned India’s economic development. Next, we discuss the evolution of the three main economic sectors—agriculture, industry, and services. We then provide a summary of India’s regional performance. We end with a discussion of India’s economic performance in the post-2014 period.
Topic:: Agriculture, Development, Economic Growth, Economic Policy, and Industry
Political Geography:: South Asia and India

1815. India’s development cooperation in Africa: The case of ‘Solar Mamas’ who bring light

Author:: Veda Vaidyanathan
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: This paper examines multiple facets of New Delhi’s development cooperation with countries in Africa and argues that grassroots organizations in India that find innovative, low-cost technological solutions to developmental challenges can help governments and multilateral agencies craft inclusive, sustainable policies. The aim of this paper is threefold. First, to understand the major actors, instruments, themes, and mechanisms that make up India’s Development cooperation towards countries in Africa and how these usher in a new dimension of ‘South–South cooperation’. Second, the paper will explore the role of grassroots organizations that have found localized solutions in India that then export their learnings to other geographies and how they craft a unique role for themselves in India’s broader development cooperation framework. To explore this idea further, the paper will utilize the case study of a community-based grassroots organization, Barefoot College, Tilonia, founded by Sanjit Bunker Roy in 1972, and its solar programme. The college trains women from unelectrified, remote communities to become solar engineers who then return to their rural villages with the ability to harness solar power, earning them the title of ‘Solar Mamas’. Third, this paper argues that the uneven, fragmented Indian experience of designing development assistance programmes provides an important non-western perspective that can help decision makers craft policies for an era beyond aid.
Topic:: Development, International Cooperation, Science and Technology, Innovation, and Sustainability
Political Geography:: Africa and India

1816. Fiscal dependence on extractive revenues: Measurement and concepts

Author:: Kyle McNabb
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: The aims of this paper are twofold. It firstly identifies and discusses the extent to which public revenues from natural resources are adequately captured in existing cross-country revenue databases, before exploring the extent to which such data can be used to estimate countries’ fiscal dependence on extractives. I first discuss key conceptual, definitional and measurement issues, before comparing the coverage of key existing databases, notably the UNU-WIDER Government Revenue Dataset (GRD). I then propose a new measure of fiscal dependence on extractive revenues (FDE). Whilst a number of existing studies have attempted to better quantify countries’ resource dependence, to the best of my knowledge none has yet proposed an indicator that ties the idea of dependence to any outcomes. The FDE simply calculates the extent to which extractive-producing countries can fund day-to-day government spending with non-extractive revenues. I find that the FDE is strongly correlated with existing measures of extractive dependence but can ultimately tell us more about countries’ fiscal positions and resulting vulnerability to shocks to revenue or government spending.
Topic:: Natural Resources, Tax Systems, Extractive Industries, and Economic Dependence
Political Geography:: Africa, South Asia, and India

1817. The violent legacy of fascism: Neofascist political violence in Italy, 1969–88

Author:: Stefano Costalli, Daniele Guariso, Patricia Justino, and Andrea Ruggeri
Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: We still have limited knowledge about the long-term effects of fascism on European democracies. European countries experienced cycles of violence between the 1960s and 1980s. Can such violence be explained by legacies of mobilization during fascism? We study whether and how the Italian fascist experience of the 1920s affected political violence during the 1970s and 1980s. We created an original dataset of conflictual events at a subnational level in Italy. Using zero-inflated negative binomial regressions, we find that local membership of the fascist party in 1922—before the institutionalization of the fascist regime—predicts neofascist political violence at the provincial level more than 40 years later. New windows of opportunity facilitate the resurfacing of local fascist legacies: in the months when a new Minister of Interior is appointed, we observe higher levels of neofascist violence in provinces where the early presence of the fascist party was stronger.
Topic:: Terrorism, History, Fascism, Conflict, and Violence
Political Geography:: Europe and Italy

1818. Assessment of institutional set-up of results measurement and reporting systems for non-sovereign operations in development finance institutions

Author:: Patrick Mabuza, Francis H. Kemeze, Oluwatoba J. Omotilewa, Mamadou Bah, and Btissam Benkerroum
Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: Development finance institutions (DFIs) foster sustainable development through financing, advisory services, and technical assistance. They complement public investments in developing and underserved markets to unlock development opportunities and deliver development results. Whereas DFIs’ missions are known among practitioners, their development achievements are often less understood. Consequently, DFIs have developed different results measurement and reporting systems to document the impacts of their interventions. This includes recent efforts to harmonize development impact indicators for results measurement and reporting. However, less is known about methodologies used in development outcomes assessments, or institutional set-ups for measuring and reporting these outcomes. This hampers knowledge on what works or does not work from a development finance perspective, preventing feedback mechanisms for DFIs to learn from prior interventions, mitigate risks, and ultimately improve subsequent interventions. Using a newly developed integration index score of hard versus soft integration of results measurement and reporting systems, and primary and secondary data from eleven such systems within DFIs, this study examines the set-up and effectiveness of different results reporting systems and mechanisms currently in place in DFIs. Findings reveal that although all interviewed DFIs measure anticipated (ex-ante) and ex-post development outcomes, only 27 per cent operate a fully integrated results measurement and reporting system that permits a 360- degree feedback loop for development effectiveness.
Topic:: Development, Finance, and Assessment
Political Geography:: Global Focus

1819. Absolute or relative: perceptions of inequality among young adults in Mozambique

Author:: Giulia Barletta, Ines A. Ferreira, and Vincenzo Salvucci
Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: Different concepts of inequality lead to different positions in discussions about whether economic growth leads to increasing inequality. This study investigates how over 1,100 young adults in Mozambique perceive inequality and whether their perceptions are based on relative or absolute terms. It follows the line of work which examines attitudes (perceptions and preferences) towards different distributional axioms, and focuses on scale and translation invariance. Most of our respondents believe that inequality in their neighbourhood is too high and that circumstances beyond their control explain why some people are poor. We conclude that, while some respondents think in absolute terms, many do not agree with either the scale-invariance or the translation-invariance axioms, and there is great variation depending on the scenario presented to the respondents. We find some correlation between their way of thinking and gender, but no clear link with level of education and type of employment.
Topic:: Education, Inequality, Economic Growth, Youth, and Gender
Political Geography:: Africa and Mozambique

1820. Building resilience knowledge for sustainable development: Insights from development studies

Author:: Albert Sanghoon Park
Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: This paper explores how the concept of resilience has been used in development studies. Set amidst the rise of resilience in sustainable development, it offers insights for scholars and policy-makers, alike. Sampling 419 resilience-oriented journal articles from 2017–22, it uses Kuhnian paradigms to analyse development knowledge production. This produces three key findings. First is the absence of a coherent resilience paradigm (with shared definitions, problems, and methods) in development studies. Second is its use, instead, by pre-existing paradigms as a theoretical add-on to better address complexity and/or as a new buzzword to repackage prior arguments. Third are latent possibilities for resilience as both a rallying call and siren song in sustainable development. Here, resilience discourses open vital space for development cooperation and climate action. However, its outcomes will depend on whether we can first understand precisely what we talk about when we talk about resilience.
Topic:: Development, Politics, Sustainability, Resilience, and Knowledge Production
Political Geography:: Global Focus

1821. Migration out of poverty: The case of post-war migration in Mozambique

Author:: Maimuna Ibraimo and Eva-Maria Egger
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: Internal migration plays an important role in the economic development of individuals, their families, and their country. This study describes Mozambique’s most common migration patterns from 1992 until 2017 using data from three population censuses. We focus on the most important moves between regions, provinces, and rural and urban areas. Further, we document the characteristics of migrants to assess selection patterns. In the final step, we estimate the relationship between migration and multidimensional poverty by applying inverse probability weighted regression adjustment (IPWRA). We find that migration in Mozambique was very high, especially between rural areas, after the war ended as people returned from displacement. Still, it is very low in the most recent period. Recently, migration has been the main contributor to the urbanization of the greater Maputo area (capital city). Migrants appear to be positively selected on education, and are, on average, less likely to be poor.
Topic:: Migration, Poverty, Displacement, Rural, Economic Development, and Post-Conflict
Political Geography:: Africa and Mozambique

1822. Armed groups’ modes of local engagement and post-conflict (in)stability: Insights from the Ethiopian and Somali civil wars

Author:: Marine Gassier
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: What distinguishes post-war governments that succeed in establishing a stable political order and prevent recurring conflict from those that do not? This comparative study considers the specific threats that typically lead to the collapse of the post-conflict political order to offer new hypotheses on the conditions that affect post-war governments’ ability to sustainably restore stability. The threats considered include (i) fragmentation of the main actors in the conflict, (ii) inadequate demobilization, and (iii) enduring dependence of the post-war government on local brokers. Post-war regimes are more vulnerable to such risks after wars in which the dominant armed groups have established themselves by co-opting local power structures and drawing on existing socio-political networks, as this process redistributes power from the central to the local level. Empirically, this paper uses a novel dataset documenting the practices through which rebel groups may alter local power structures to highlight the connection between this wartime process of transformation and patterns of conflict recurrence. In addition, it contrasts the transition of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front from rebellion to government in Ethiopia in the 1990s with the trajectory of the armed movements in Somalia that also overthrew the incumbent military regime but then failed to establish a viable state.
Topic:: Conflict Prevention, Armed Forces, Conflict, Post-Conflict, and Instability
Political Geography:: Africa, Ethiopia, and Somalia

1823. ‘Ten pound touts’: post-conflict trust and the legacy of counterinsurgency in Northern Ireland

Author:: Kristin M. Bakke and Kit Rickard
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: This paper explores the legacies of wartime rebel governance and counterinsurgency tactics. Insurgents rely on civilian support for resources, information, and cover. To defeat insurgents, the state attempts to extract information from communities where support for insurgents is highest. We argue that strong norms against civilian collaboration emerge in these areas, which may have long legacies for local community trust. To explore these legacies, we conduct a case study of post-conflict Northern Ireland. While both Republican and Loyalist paramilitary groups established wartime institutions, the counterinsurgency targeted Republican groups in urban areas with the use of informants. Drawing on secondary literature and a survey, we show that strong norms against informers—‘touts’—persist long after the end of the conflict in Republican strongholds. These areas show lower levels of local community trust than their Loyalist counterparts. The Northern Irish case demonstrates the detrimental effects of dynamics likely to shape other post-conflict states.
Topic:: Counterinsurgency, Governance, Civilians, Survey, and Trust
Political Geography:: Europe and Northern Ireland

1824. Trade sanctions and informal employment

Author:: Ali Moghaddasi Kelishomi and Robert Nisticò
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United Nations University
Abstract:: This paper examines how trade sanctions affect the allocation of workers across formal and informal employment. We analyse the case of the unexpected and unprecedented trade sanctions imposed on Iran in 2012. We use a difference-in-differences approach and compare the probability of working in the informal sector before and after 2012 for individuals employed in industries with pre-existing different levels of exposure to international trade. Combining employment data from the Iranian Labour Force Survey and trade data from Iran’s Customs Administration database for the years 2008–14, we find that workers employed in industries initially facing higher exposure to trade are significantly more likely to experience informal employment in the years after 2012 than workers employed in industries with lower trade exposure. This result suggests that, in the short run, the informal sector may absorb a significant fraction of workers displaced by the trade shock caused by the sanctions. We estimate that the increase in informal employment is highest for poorly educated workers, highlighting the unequal labour market consequences of trade sanctions. We exclude that industries differentially exposed to international trade were already following a different trend in the share of informal employment in the years prior to 2012, thus providing empirical support for the validity of our identification strategy. Moreover, we show that our main result holds when accounting for potential sorting issues by an instrumental variable approach. Our findings shed light on a potentially important dimension of labour reallocation whereby trade sanctions can affect the economy of the target country. They also provide important implications for policies designed to address informal employment and to assist trade-displaced workers.
Topic:: Labor Issues, Sanctions, Employment, Trade, and Informal Economy
Political Geography:: Iran and Middle East

1825. Gender and poverty as a feminist foreign policy priority

Author:: Joanne Crawford
Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Women's Development Agency (IWDA)
Abstract:: This issues paper is dedicated to the late Sylvia Chant, who named household-level measurement as a barrier to evidence related to the ‘feminization of poverty.’ Her work underpinned the commitment of the author and International Women‘s Development Agency (IWDA) to change the way that poverty is measured so that its gendered dimensions are visible. As IWDA worked with othersi to create an alternative quantitative measure of poverty, Chant’s focus on the “feminization of responsibility and obligation – women’s increasing liability for dealing with poverty (responsibility), and their progressively less choice other than to do so (obligation)” ii informed the inclusion of voice, unpaid work and time use as dimensions of gendersensitive measurement of multidimensional poverty.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Poverty, Feminism, and Gender
Political Geography:: Global Focus

1826. Peacebuilding and feminist foreign policy

Author:: Federico Casolari and Patricia Sango Pollard
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Women's Development Agency (IWDA)
Abstract:: In this paper, Dr Frederica Caso from La Trobe University and independent researcher Patricia Sango Pollard examine the added value of a Feminist Foreign Policy (FFP) approach to peacebuilding in the Pacific by looking at the case of Australia and Solomon Islands. In the strategic competition over allies, a FFP will promote a value-based approach that can attract and secure key partners and bolster the idea of the Pacific Family.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Feminism, Intersectionality, and Gender
Political Geography:: Australia

1827. Enhancing Market Size, Scalability, and Regional Integration

Author:: Pepe Zhang
Publication Date:: 06-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: How does the private sector perceive Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC)? What opportunities do firms find most exciting? And what precisely can companies do to seize on these opportunities and support the region’s journey toward recovery and sustainable development? To answer these questions, the Atlantic Council collaborated with the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) to glean insights from its robust network of private-sector partners. Through surveys and in-depth interviews, this report identified five vital opportunities for the private sector to drive socioeconomic progress in LAC, with sixteen corresponding recommendations private firms can consider as they take steps to support the region.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Economy, Business, Economic Growth, Innovation, Trade, and Inclusion
Political Geography:: Latin America and Caribbean

1828. How Monarchies End

Author:: Stephen Grand
Publication Date:: 06-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: In a new Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative issue brief, “How Monarchies End”, Atlantic Council’s Nonresident Senior Fellow Stephen R. Grand flips the analytical script on the spate of notable publications covering “how democracies die.” Grand examines what happens when autocratic rule corrodes and what pushes it to ultimately crumble. Under what circumstances do kings and queens, emperors and caliphs, cease to rule — either because their throne is transformed into a more ceremonial post or because they lose power entirely? For the eight remaining Arab monarchs, the downfall of their former global peers offer critical insights and parallels. The issue brief examines these topics and provides strategies for managing challenges to power, as well as a series of lessons for Arab monarchs to consider.
Topic:: Politics, Reform, Monarchy, and Resilience
Political Geography:: Middle East and Gulf Nations

1829. US-China lessons from Ukraine: Fueling more dangerous Taiwan tensions

Author:: John K. Culver and Sarah Kirchberger
Publication Date:: 06-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: The lessons that Washington and Beijing appear to be learning from Russia’s February 2022 invasion of Ukraine, and from Ukraine’s resistance and counteroffensive, could set the stage for a crisis over Taiwan in the next few years. This grim prospect is driven by the United States and China arraying themselves for a strategic rivalry since 2017 through the continuing trade war, economic decoupling, and increasing rhetorical and military positioning for confrontation over Taiwan. In light of the Chinese military’s threatening gestures, belligerent rhetoric, and other recent actions that read like they could be preparation for war, there is a danger that the successive warnings by senior US military commanders that Chinese CCP General Secretary and President Xi Jinping has already decided to use military force in the near term could become the proverbial tail wagging the dog — and could impose a logic that makes a US-China war more likely, rather than enhancing deterrence.1 Therefore, the key question for the United States and its allies is how an increasingly truculent and belligerent Chinese leadership can be incentivized to walk back from the brink. This paper examines what lessons China, the United States, and European allies have drawn from the Ukraine conflict and how such lessons have shaped these actors’ strategic assumptions. It concludes with a discussion of policy recommendations for the transatlantic community confronting the possibility of a US-China conflict over Taiwan.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Diplomacy, Politics, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: China, Ukraine, Taiwan, Asia, North America, and United States of America

1830. Accelerating digitalization and innovation in Latin America and the Caribbean

Author:: Pepe Zhang
Publication Date:: 06-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: How does the private sector perceive Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC)? What opportunities do firms find most exciting? And what precisely can companies do to seize on these opportunities and support the region’s journey toward recovery and sustainable development? To answer these questions, the Atlantic Council collaborated with the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) to glean insights from its robust network of private-sector partners. Through surveys and in-depth interviews, this report identified five vital opportunities for the private sector to drive socioeconomic progress in LAC, with sixteen corresponding recommendations private firms can consider as they take steps to support the region.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Economy, Business, Economic Growth, Innovation, Internet of Things, and Inclusion
Political Geography:: Latin America

1831. US strategy and force posture for an era of nuclear tripolarity

Author:: Keir A. Lieber and Daryl G. Press
Publication Date:: 05-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: The term “nuclear tripolarity” describes a world in which China has joined the United States and Russia as a leading nuclear power. As China modernizes its existing nuclear forces and deploys new weapons, it is on track to roughly double its deployed nuclear arsenal in the next few years—from approximately 350 to 700 deliverable warheads. The US Department of Defense projects that China will go further, expanding its arsenal to at least 1,500 warheads by 2035.1 At those force levels, China’s arsenal would be comparable to US and Russian deployed nuclear forces, currently capped at 1,550 by the New START Treaty.2 What are the consequences of emerging tripolarity for US nuclear strategy and force posture? If the United States retains its current approach to nuclear force planning, the growth of China’s arsenal (and the ongoing modernization of Russia’s nuclear weapons) will likely compel the United States to significantly increase its own arsenal. The easiest way to do so would be to upload one to two thousand additional warheads from US reserves onto existing delivery systems when the New START treaty expires in 2026. Unfortunately, a major increase in US forces would likely mark just another step in an intensifying arms competition among the three leading nuclear powers, since China and Russia would then feel pressure to respond.
Topic:: Defense Policy, National Security, Nuclear Weapons, Geopolitics, Deterrence, and Multipolarity
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

1832. India’s personal data protection act and the politics of digital governance

Author:: Stephen Weymouth
Publication Date:: 05-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: India recognizes the importance of establishing policy foundations for digital commerce, as cross-border data flows are essential to firms in all sectors, not just in technology. In manufacturing, three dimensional printing and robotics are revolutionizing production processes. Agriculture is benefiting from sensors and analytics, which optimize crop yields and resource usage. Healthcare is being transformed by electronic medical records, health information exchanges, and algorithms that analyze patient data and detect illness. Financial services are using blockchain technologies and AI to enable faster and more secure transactions. All industries rely on electronic payments, data analytics, and cloud storage to streamline various processes. With customers located worldwide, cross-border data flows are the byproduct of digital transactions. Data privacy frameworks can facilitate these flows by building consumer trust, thereby unlocking innovation and efficiency in all sectors. Given the significance of cross-border data flows to its economy, India has actively engaged in multilateral and bilateral discussions on digital trade governance. It is a member of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad), a strategic forum comprising the United States, Japan, India, and Australia, a possible venue for coordination on digital governance. India has also joined the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF), a US-led framework for economic cooperation which will facilitate conversations seeking “high-standard rules of the road in the digital economy, including standards on cross-border data flows and data localization.” The US-India Initiative on Critical and Emerging Technologies (iCET), launched by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and US President Joe Biden during the Quad summit in May 2022, presents an opportunity to build India-US trade ties through an industry-focused agenda. Finally, India and the United States have launched a new bilateral Defense Industrial Cooperation Roadmap to accelerate technological cooperation. This issue brief delves into the politics of India’s evolving digital governance, focusing on the draft Digital Personal Data Protection Bill of 2022 (DPDPB). The DPDPB aims to balance the interests of Indian consumers seeking enhanced privacy and data security against the business need for unconstrained data flows. The government’s responsive approach to stakeholder feedback on previous versions of the bill indicates that achieving these goals is feasible. However, concerns persist about ambiguities surrounding data transfers and institutional arrangements that exempt the government from complying with the law in ways that may encourage surveillance and censorship of opposing viewpoints.
Topic:: Economy, Business, Rule of Law, Data, and Data Governance
Political Geography:: South Asia and India

1833. Bangladesh draft data protection act 2023: Potential and pitfalls

Author:: Christabel Randolph
Publication Date:: 05-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: The Bangladesh government’s updated draft data protection bill is a welcome revision of its 2022 attempt to address the country’s lack of a comprehensive data protection law, but there is still room for constructive change to heighten regulatory certainty. The Information and Communications Technology Division of the Ministry of Posts, Telecommunication, and Information Technology released the proposed Data Protection Act 2023 (DPA 2023 or the bill) 1 on March 14—just days after the publication of the South Asia Center’s March issue brief—and the revised version responds to some of the criticism of the digital protectionism and restrictive provisions on digital business activity in the 2022 draft. Specifically, the proposed legislation reflects an operational sensibility based on stakeholder feedback on significant issues. It has incorporated more flexibility to frame rules to address changing situations, provided for a transition period, relaxed data localization requirements, and expressly recognized the importance of international cooperation and safeguard measures for facilitating data flows.
Topic:: International Cooperation, Science and Technology, Legislation, Innovation, and Digital Policy
Political Geography:: Bangladesh and South Asia

1834. China’s subsea-cable power in the Middle East and North Africa

Author:: Dale Aluf
Publication Date:: 05-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: In a new Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative issue brief, “China’s subsea-cable power in the Middle East and North Africa,” Aluf analyzes China’s campaign to make countries in the region more dependent on Chinese networks, while reducing its own dependence on foreign cables. For a country that seeks to alter the internet’s physical form and influence digital behavior while exerting supreme control over information flows, China’s growing presence in the Middle East and North Africa’s cable industry is significant because Beijing has the power to shape the route of global internet traffic by determining when, where, and how to build cables.
Topic:: Security, Diplomacy, Politics, Science and Technology, Partnerships, and Innovation
Political Geography:: China, Middle East, Asia, and North Africa

1835. Holding the Islamic Republic of Iran accountable for atrocity crimes

Author:: Celeste Kmiotek, Alana Mitias, and Nushin Sarkarati
Publication Date:: 04-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: With little to no prospect for accountability within Iran’s domestic courts, victims and survivors of serious violations of international law are turning toward an increasing number of foreign jurisdictions—most commonly in Europe and North America, but also in Latin America, Africa, and other regions—to pursue justice for human rights violations carried out by the Islamic Republic of Iran. Under the principle of universal jurisdiction, certain domestic justice systems allow prosecutions in national courts for crimes committed abroad, regardless of the victim’s or perpetrator’s nationality. Universal jurisdiction stems from the concept that certain crimes are of such gravity that they harm the international community as a whole, so national courts outside the country where the violations took place may prosecute them to protect the international order. Although the crimes subject to universal jurisdiction provisions differ by state, they generally include crimes against humanity, torture, war crimes, and genocide. Limitations on universal jurisdiction also vary between states, however, as do the processes for filing complaints and procedures for investigations, trials, and appeals. As was shown by the trial and conviction of Hamid Noury in Sweden for his involvement in the massacre of Iranian political prisoners in 1988, national prosecutions of international crimes can be a fruitful avenue to justice for victims of the Islamic Republic. To this end, the Atlantic Council’s Strategic Litigation Project has compiled a guide to aid practitioners and independent investigators in navigating the legal systems of European states with the highest likelihood of prosecuting Iranian human rights violators. Focusing on five states—France, Germany, the Netherlands, Sweden, and Switzerland—this manual outlines the crimes and violations subject to universal jurisdiction, best practices for investigating and documenting crimes, and processes for requesting investigations and participating in prosecutions as a victim, witness, or NGO. For information that is beyond the scope of this manual, the annex includes printed resources to consult and organizations to contact for additional assistance.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Human Rights, Politics, Rule of Law, Accountability, Norms, Atrocities, Resilience, and Society
Political Geography:: Iran and Middle East

1836. Harnessing allied space capabilities

Author:: Robert Murray, Tiffany Vora, and Nicholas Eftimiades
Publication Date:: 04-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: The United States’ vast network of alliances and partnerships offers a competitive advantage—this is especially evident in outer space. Often characterized as a global commons, space holds value for all humankind across commercial, exploration, and security vectors. As technological advancements trigger a proliferation in spacefaring nations, the United States and its allies and partners are confronted with new challenges to and opportunities for collective action. This series examines how US space strategy can recognize the comparative advantages of allies and partners in space and best harness allied capabilities.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, International Trade and Finance, National Security, Science and Technology, Space, Institutions, and Defense Industry
Political Geography:: Europe, Eurasia, Canada, United States of America, and Indo-Pacific

1837. The NewSpace market: Capital, control, and commercialization

Author:: Robert Murray
Publication Date:: 04-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: Commercial opportunities in space-based technologies are expanding rapidly. From satellite communications and Earth observation to space tourism and asteroid mining, the potential for businesses to capitalize on these emerging technologies is vast and known as “NewSpace.”1 The NewSpace model is important for governments to understand because the dual-use nature of space, specifically its growing commercialization, will influence the types of space-based technologies that nations may leverage, and consequently, impact their national security paradigms. By capitalizing on the private sector’s agility and combining it with the essential research efforts and customer role played by the public sector, the NewSpace industry can play a critical function in addressing current and future national security challenges through public-private codevelopment. As the NewSpace industry expands, the role of government is evolving from being the primary developer and operator of space assets to facilitating their commercialization, while still prioritizing key advancements. US and allied governments can capitalize on this competitive landscape by strategically investing in areas that align with their national security objectives. However, it is crucial for them to first understand and adapt to their changing roles within this dynamic environment. Indeed, the benefits of the burgeoning NewSpace industry extend beyond the United States. International collaboration and competition in this area can lead to faster technological advancements and economic gains. The global NewSpace landscape is driving down costs, increasing access to space, and fostering innovation that can improve not only economic well-being, but also impact national security models. To that end, this memo will examine the broad state of the space market, discuss the industry drivers, and propose recommendations for US and allied policymakers as they consider future government investments in those enabling space-based activities that support wider national security ambitions.
Topic:: Defense Policy, International Trade and Finance, National Security, Science and Technology, European Union, Space, and Defense Industry
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Eurasia, Canada, Asia, and United States of America

1838. Integrating US and allied capabilities to ensure security in space

Author:: Nicholas Eftimiades
Publication Date:: 04-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: Over the last two decades, the world entered a new paradigm in the use of space, namely the introduction of highly capable small satellites, just tens or hundreds of kilograms in size. This paradigm has forever changed how countries will employ space capabilities to achieve economic, scientific, and national security interests. As is so often the case, the telltale signs of this global paradigm shift were obvious to more than just a few individuals or industries. Air Force Research Laboratory’s Space Vehicles Directorate began exploring the use of small satellites in the 1990s. The Air Force also established the Operationally Responsive Space program in 2007, which explored the potential use of small satellites. However, both research efforts had no impact on the US Department of Defense’s (DOD’s) satellite acquisition programs. The advancement of small satellites was largely driven by universities and small commercial start-up companies.1 The introduction of commercial and government small satellites has democratized space for states and even individuals. Space remote sensing and communications satellites, once the exclusive domain of the United States and Soviet Union, can now provide space-based services to anyone with a credit card. Eighty-eight countries currently operate satellites, and the next decade will likely see the launch of tens of thousands of new satellites.2 Commercial and government small satellites have changed outer space into a more contested, congested, and competitive environment. The United States has shared space data with its allies since the dawn of the space age.3 Yet it also has a history of operating independently in space. Other domains of warfare and defense policy are more closely integrated between the United States and its allies and partners. The United States has military alliances with dozens of countries and strategic partnerships with many more.4 In recent years, there have been calls to coordinate with, or even integrate allied space capabilities into US national security space strategy and plans. In this regard, the US government has made significant advances. However, much work needs to be done. There is pressure on the United States to act quickly to increase national security space cooperation and integration, driven by rapidly increasing global capabilities and expanding threats from hostile nations and orbital debris. This paper examines the potential strategic benefits to US national security of harnessing allied space capabilities and the current efforts to do so, as well as barriers to achieving success. The paper identifies pathways forward for cooperating with allies and strategic partners on their emerging space capabilities and the potential of integrating US and allied capabilities.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, NATO, National Security, European Union, and Space
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Canada, North America, and United States of America

1839. Beyond launch: Harnessing allied space capabilities for exploration purposes

Author:: Tiffany Vora
Publication Date:: 04-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: The “United States Space Priorities Framework,” released in December 2021, confirmed the White House’s commitment to American leadership in space.1 Space activities deliver immense benefits to humankind. For example, satellite imaging alone is crucial for improvements in daily life such as weather monitoring as well as for grand challenges like the fight against climate change. Such breakthrough discoveries in space pave the way for innovation and new economies on Earth. Exploration is at the cutting edge of this process: it expands humankind’s knowledge of the universe, transforming the unknown into the supremely challenging, expensive, risky, and promising. US allies and partners accelerate this transformation via scientific and technical achievements as well as processes, relationships, and a shared vision for space exploration. By integrating these allied capabilities, the United States and its allies and partners set the stage for safe and prosperous space geopolitics and economy in the decades to come. However, harnessing the capabilities of US allies and partners for space exploration is complex, requiring the balance of relatively short-term progress with far-horizon strategy. Space exploration has changed since the US-Soviet space race of the 1960s. In today’s rapidly evolving technological and geopolitical environment, it is unclear whether the processes, relationships, and vision that previously enabled allied cooperation in space, epitomized by the International Space Station (ISS), will keep pace. Here, China is viewed as the preeminent competitor for exploration goals and capabilities—as well as the major competitor for long-term leadership in space.2 This development drives fears of space militarization and weaponization, prompting protectionist legislation, investment screening, and industrial policies that can disrupt collaboration among the United States and its key allies and partners.3 Further complication stems from the rise of commercial space, with opportunities and challenges due to the decentralization, democratization, and demonetization of technologies for robotic and crewed space exploration. This paper serves as a primer for current US space exploration goals and capabilities that will be critical to achieving them. It highlights arenas where US allies and partners are strongly positioned to jointly accelerate space exploration while also benefitting life on Earth. This paper concludes with recommended actions—gleaned from interviews with international experts in space exploration—for the US government as well as allied and partner governments to increase the number and impact of global stakeholders in space exploration, to remove friction in collaboration, and to guide the future of space toward democratic values.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, NATO, National Security, Science and Technology, European Union, Partnerships, and Space
Political Geography:: China, Europe, and Asia

1840. Kazakhstan could lead Central Asia in mitigating the world’s energy and food shortages

Author:: Margarita Assenova, Ariel Cohen, and Wesley Hill
Publication Date:: 04-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: Russia’s war against Ukraine has had significant economic and political repercussions across the globe, including energy shortages and growing food insecurity. The war has forced Central Asian states to emphasize their independence from Moscow and accelerate their economic diversification. Central Asia—comprising Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan—has the potential to mitigate global shortages of energy, food, and fertilizers, caused by Russia’s war of aggression. The primary challenges for Central Asia and its Western partners remain diversifying export routes and expanding the capacity of alternative transportation corridors, especially the Trans-Caspian International Transportation Corridor, or the “Middle Corridor.” Kazakhstan is the leading producer of uranium ore in the world, grows 2 percent of the world’s wheat, and has major hydrocarbon reserves. Kazakhstan has the opportunity to lead Central Asia forward on the path to becoming an important supplier of energy, grain, fertilizers, and nuclear fuel to world markets. The energy crisis in Europe spurred renewed interest in the long-planned Trans-Caspian natural gas pipeline. A potential United States and European Union ban on uranium civilian-reactor fuel exports from Russia could ensure Kazakhstan’s importance as a nuclear fuel exporter to Europe. To do this, Kazakhstan first needs to build its own conversion and enrichment facilities. This would allow it to double its share in the European market while utilizing the Middle Corridor. By encouraging Western investment, the states of Central Asia can become an important force in global commodity markets. To this end, they should implement the recently signed far-reaching regional agreements on cooperation and integration, so that they are less susceptible to “divide and conquer” strategies from predatory foreign powers and can exercise greater leverage when negotiating as a bloc. The US and the EU should also recognize that Central Asia’s energy and agricultural potential and resources make the region an area of strategic interest with promising business opportunities. The Central Asian states need to intensify their Western-oriented diplomatic outreach to attract support from state and private actors for investment and technological partnerships. Geographic proximity to Russia and China means Central Asian countries will always have economic relationships with Moscow and Beijing. But greater Western engagement in the region can diminish the chances for Russo-Sino cooperation in Central Asia. Russia’s war against Ukraine has weakened its geopolitical position and the Western sanctions on its economy have opened up new opportunities for Central Asia to supply critical energy and food commodities to world markets. Kazakhstan, as the region’s largest economy and its largest producer of oil, uranium, and grain, is well-positioned to lead this transition.
Topic:: Security, Environment, Food Security, Geopolitics, and Energy
Political Geography:: Europe, Central Asia, Eurasia, and Kazakhstan

1841. Humanitarian aid: Defining new areas of US-LAC collaboration

Author:: Pepe Zhang and Isabel Bernhard
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: The US humanitarian assistance and disaster relief (HADR) system—well practiced and extensively developed—could further serve US and partners’ needs in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) and beyond through targeted improvements. Based on our experience as HADR practitioners with operational and academic expertise, we share insights from many years of working with partners in the Americas. The task is urgent: fragile governments and organizations further impacted by COVID-19 and climate change have exposed HADR deficiencies that need to be rapidly strengthened. Redoubling the US’s HADR commitment to allies and partners can also have strategic benefits during a period of renewed competition with the People’s Republic of China. We believe that the United States can strengthen its HADR work globally, and particularly with LAC countries, through partnership and relationship building as well as education and exercises. By deepening its strengths and address- ing room for improvement, the United States can remain the partner of choice for LAC countries and conserve its positional advantage over China and other strategic competitors. How can LAC and partner nations (such as the United States), nongovernmental organizations, and regional and other global organizations strengthen their abilities to respond to natural disasters? What can the United States do to improve its disaster preparedness and response in LAC? And what can Washington learn from Beijing’s approach to disaster assistance in LAC? In crafting this report to address these questions, we drew from a roundtable discussion, verbal and written consultations with subject matter experts, and written material. A full description of the methodology is provided in the appendix. The findings of the report include eight recommendations grouped under two mutually complementary areas: (1) partnership and relationship building, and (2) education and exercises. Not only are these recommendations timely and relevant for HADR practitioners, but taking these steps would strengthen Western hemispheric security by investing in the region’s infrastructure and human capital. As the United States and its LAC partners consider future room for cooperation and collaboration, HADR work will form an indispensable centerpiece of their strategies.
Topic:: NATO, Climate Change, Diplomacy, Environment, Humanitarian Aid, International Organization, Politics, Partnerships, Resilience, and Energy
Political Geography:: China, Latin America, Caribbean, North America, and United States of America

1842. An imperative for women’s political leadership: Lessons from Brazil

Author:: Valentina Sader and Isabel Bernhard
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: In politics and positions of power, the lack of equitable representation of women is striking. Women represent 49.7 percent of the world population, yet only twenty-seven countries have a female leader as of February 2023.2 Brazil, which elected its first and only woman president in 2011, has seen slow progress in ensuring greater female participation in politics. Political violence against women, among other factors, is a deterring factor for women’s political participation. Political violence is not a new phenomenon, nor it is exclusive to women. However, evolving analysis has identified differences between political violence generally and political violence against women. The latter is directed at women with the intent of restricting their political participation and active voice, while also generalizing women’s participation as “wrong.” In the Brazilian context, political violence against women is a “physical, psychological, economic, symbolic, or sexual aggression against women, with the purpose of preventing or restricting access to and exercise of public functions and/or inducing them to make decisions contrary to their will.” As such, political violence against women plays an important role in deterring women’s active participation in politics—and even more daunting for black, indigenous, or LGBTQI+ (lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender, or queer) women. Brazil has a unique opportunity to adjust its legislation and reframe the incentives in the political sphere tackle this issue now, ahead of municipal elections in 2024. Doing so will ensure greater and more equitable political participation, enrich the political debate, strengthen the legislative agenda, and further solidify the country’s democratic ethos, even if other challenges to democracy remain. This report presents solutions Brazil could take to reach this more representative and resilient version of democracy.
Topic:: Civil Society, Diplomacy, Politics, Elections, Women, Leadership, and Disinformation
Political Geography:: South Asia, Brazil, and Latin America

1843. The future of women in India: Barriers, facilitators and opportunities

Author:: Amita Vyas, Misha Iqbal, Capucine Querenet, Harris Samad, and Irfan Nooruddin
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: The barriers South Asian women face in the workforce are deep and intersecting, including but not limited to: accessing digital technology; disruptions to supply chains; the dual burden of managing eldercare and childcare; limited physical and mental health services; and the increased risk of gender-based violence (GBV). These are key obstacles to women’s labor force participation, and all were exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic. According to a joint report published by the International Finance Corporation and the United Nations Entity for Gender Equality and the Empowerment of Women (UN Women), 35 percent of women entrepreneurs in India reported that they have suffered declining revenues due to COVID-19, and 72 percent of female small business owners in Sri Lanka reported experiencing difficulties accessing their usual financial services. The same report found that female job-loss rates resulting from COVID-19 are about 1.8 times higher than male job-loss rates globally. Women’s participation and advancement in the labor force not only benefits women themselves, but also men, families, communities, and the entire nation. Despite this, women’s work is a minefield of visible and invisible barriers, rooted in inequality, patriarchy, and privilege. Global corporations, civil society, governments, and businesses across the South Asian region and the globe are committed and poised to support women’s advancement in the workplace, and are well positioned to accelerate and complement these efforts through direct investments and advocacy. But, first, two key areas must be explored, and they serve as the foci for this issue brief: Raise awareness of key economic challenges facing women across the region. Explore best practices and opportunities for addressing these pressing challenges.
Topic:: Education, Women, Resilience, and Society
Political Geography:: South Asia and India

1844. China in Sub-Saharan Africa: Reaching far beyond natural resources

Author:: Amin Mohseni-Cheraghlou and Naomi Aladekoba
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: This work empirically examines China’s growing footprint in Sub-Saharan Africa’s investment, trade, cultural, and security landscape over the past two decades. It highlights China’s increasing appetite for Sub-Saharan Africa’s natural resources and growing young labor force—identifying the region’s consumer market as an important destination for Chinese goods and services over the next few decades. The analysis identifies more than 600 Chinese investments and construction contracts in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), valued at over $303 billion, signed between 2006 and 2020. Four sectors attract 87 percent of China’s investment and construction in the region: energy at 34 percent; transport, 29 precent; metals, 13 percent; and real estate, 11 percent. This is very similar to the Middle East and North Africa Region, where the energy sector attracts close to 50 percent of China’s investment, followed by transport, 19 percent; real estate, 15 percent; and metals, 6 percent. In terms of trade, this work shows that between 2001 and 2020, China’s merchandise trade with the region increased by a whopping 1,864 percent—surpassing SSA’s trade with both the United States and the European Union. In other words, from 2001 to 2020, China’s share in total merchandise trade in SSA rose from 4 percent to 25.6 percent, while during the same period, the shares of the United States and the EU in SSA’s total trade declined by 10 percentage points and 8 percentage points, respectively. The report also takes a look at China’s arms trade with the region. Twenty-two percent of SSA’s arms imports are sourced from China, making China the region’s second-largest supplier of arms and military equipment, with Russia in the lead (24 percent). Finally, the report highlights the fact that the size of Chinese migrants in Africa is estimated at one to two million, with around one million permanently residing in the region. The largest numbers are in Ghana, South Africa, Madagascar, Zambia, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo.This work is the first in a series of empirical analyses that will be conducted on China’s presence in developing economies and low-income countries.
Topic:: Natural Resources, Economy, Business, Economic Growth, Macroeconomics, Trade, and Inclusion
Political Geography:: Africa, China, Asia, and Sub-Saharan Africa

1845. Undermining Ukraine: How the Kremlin employs information operations to erode global confidence in Ukraine

Author:: Roman Osadchuk and Andy Carvin
Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: In the lead-up to Russia’s February 2022 invasion of Ukraine, the Kremlin and its proxies perpetrated information operations to justify military action against Ukraine, mask its operational planning, and deny any responsibility for the war. DOWNLOAD PDF Once the war began in earnest, Russia expanded its strategy with an additional emphasis on undermining Ukraine’s ability to resist in hopes of forcing the country to surrender or enter negotiations on Russia’s terms. This strategic expansion included efforts to maintain control of information and support for the war effort at home, undercut Ukrainian resistance, derail support for Ukrainian resistance among allies and partners, especially in the immediate region, and engage in aggressive information operations internationally to shape public opinion about Russia’s war of aggression, including in Africa and Latin America. Building upon daily monitoring by the Digital Forensic Research Lab (DFRLab), this report synthesizes Kremlin attempts to undermine Ukraine by targeting local, regional, and global audiences over the course of 2022 since the start of the war on February 24 of that year.
Topic:: Media, News Analysis, Conflict, Information Warfare, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

1846. United States–China semiconductor standoff: A supply chain under stress

Author:: Jeremy Mark and Dexter Tiff Roberts
Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: In August 2022, the US Congress passed the CHIPS and Science Act, a law that approves subsidies and tax breaks to help jump-start the renewed production on American soil of advanced semiconductors.1 Just two months later, the Joe Biden administration issued wide-ranging restrictions on the export to China of chips and chip-making technology to undercut that country’s ability to manufacture the same class of integrated circuits.2 Taken together with a steady stream of Biden administration prohibitions on technology sales to key Chinese companies, the US initiatives represent a profound turn toward competition with China in the high-tech realm.3 They also highlight an effort to restructure the complex, multinational supply chains centered on East Asia that manufacture hundreds of billions of dollars of semiconductors a year. As such, the Biden administration has set in motion a process that could alter the business strategies—and fortunes—of homegrown and foreign-invested semiconductor companies based in China, world-leading chipmakers in Taiwan and South Korea, and suppliers around the world that provide the industry with the machinery and myriad inputs that fuel chip production. The Biden administration insists that its restrictions on sales to China are intended only to limit China’s ability to produce the cutting-edge chips that can feed into the development of weapons and other strategically important technologies—and not to cripple its semiconductor industry. But the current state of play of sanctions and support for US-based semiconductor production, including by Taiwanese and Korean chipmakers, is not the endpoint in this process. Rather, the momentum to constrain Beijing’s semiconductor program is likely to continue in the coming months, at the very least with additional restrictions on Chinese companies and government-linked entities, and unprecedented bureaucratic scrutiny of American venture-capital and equity-financing flows to China. That amounts to more bad news for corporate leaders in Asia, North America, and Europe who have spent the past generation building a globe-spanning semiconductor industry that has faced few barriers to expansion. As US restrictions mount, and sales of certain technologies to China flag, the once-unimaginable process of reorienting semiconductor supply chains will become an ever-present reality. The CHIPS and Science Act already is becoming an important factor in corporate strategy, providing incentives for Taiwanese, Korean, and American companies to make big bets on new factories in places like New York, Ohio, Texas, and Arizona—witness Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company’s (TSMC’s) recent decision to build a second factory in Phoenix.4 This paper explores the potential implications of US semiconductor policy for the global semiconductor supply chains and the competition for primacy in an industry that is constantly changing the face of the global economy and one that has implications for global security in all its dimensions. It begins by examining the policies put in place by the Biden administration, and then discusses the changes taking place across the industry, with a focus on Asia.
Topic:: Economy, Business, Supply Chains, Semiconductors, and Economic Competition
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

1847. Implementing NATO’s Strategic Concept on China

Author:: Hans Binnendijk and Daniel S. Hamilton
Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: Set against the backdrop of Russia’s war on Ukraine, the June 2022 Madrid NATO Summit set the tone for the next decade of the Alliance’s shared future. Allies made it clear that they consider Russia their most immediate and direct threat. Yet they also made headlines by addressing challenges emanating from the People’s Republic of China (PRC). Allies laid out actions to be taken across the diplomatic, economic, and military spheres. Now the Alliance must implement those responses. Beijing will be watching closely.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, NATO, Diplomacy, Politics, and Strategic Planning
Political Geography:: China, Europe, Eurasia, Canada, Asia, and United States of America

1848. How allied Sweden and Finland can secure Northern Europe

Author:: Anna Wieslander, Eric Adamson, and Jesper Lehto
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: NATO is approaching its ninth round of enlargement. The accession of Sweden and Finland—two solid democracies and defenders of the international-rules based order—into the Alliance will strengthen the core of the transatlantic community. Their NATO membership opens up new opportunities to bolster regional deterrence and defense in Northern Europe, increase transatlantic burden sharing, and secure the Alliance as a whole in ways not previously possible. This issue brief sets the stage by suggesting that the Alliance use the accession of Sweden and Finland to create an ambitious deterrence-by-denial “bubble” over Northern Europe. Such a strategy does not merely include military capabilities but must be underpinned by civil robustness and resilience that stretch across NATO territory. Operationally, allies in Northern Europe should prepare to assume greater responsibility as first responders in case of a severe security situation, below or at the level of Article 5. For this to succeed, political cooperation and agenda setting must intensify among Northern European allies.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, NATO, Alliance, and Resilience
Political Geography:: Finland, Sweden, and Northern Europe

1849. Energy investment in a time of inflation

Author:: Charles Lichfield and Joseph Webster
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: High rates of inflation across the world are forcing central banks to reluctantly tighten monetary policy despite accompanying recession risks. Moreover, restricted credit access could jeopardize energy investments, particularly for capital-intensive clean energy projects, potentially rendering the world more vulnerable energy to price shocks, which are a significant contributor to the current crisis. This paper briefly considers the macroeconomic drivers of inflation in late 2022, including Russia’s war in Ukraine and uncertainties around energy supply, supply-chain resets, and lingering COVID-19 disruptions, before examining the persistent energy underinvestment of the past decade and how this has left markets exposed to varying degrees. As such, this paper also considers how private capital can accelerate cleaner energy adoption, suited to different markets’ unique conditions and needs. Borrowing costs will rise, but this doesn’t have to bring the transition to a standstill. With the Great Moderation of low volatility, interest rates, and inflation perhaps a relic of the past, assets offering inflation protection, such as infrastructure, may become increasingly attractive to investors. There is a fear that global inflation will sharply curtail energy investment into emerging markets. The fear is justified. Higher interest rates in developed markets mean higher rates of return which will lure emerging markets investors back to the US and Europe. Still, it’s not all bad news for emerging markets. Quasi-state actors like Pension and Sovereign Welfare funds are interested in very long term, high-yield projects—two criteria to which emerging market energy infrastructure correspond. Disruptions to interest rates and inflation, triggered in part by energy underinvestment, will cause disparate impacts in different markets. Inflation is not, perhaps, everywhere and always a monetary phenomenon. Energy investment faltered from 2014 to 2020, despite low interest rates. Meanwhile, aggregate supply shocks—first due to COVID, then from Putin’s invasion of Ukraine—have pressured energy production and prices, raising inflation and necessitating interest rate hikes. The consequences of persistent energy underinvestment are now becoming apparent. The need for new energy infrastructure cannot be met without private investment. This was the case when inflation was lower; it is even more important now.
Topic:: Environment, Markets, Oil, Governance, Gas, Economy, Investment, Inflation, and Energy
Political Geography:: Global Focus

1850. China and the new globalization

Author:: Franklin D. Kramer
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: The unitary globalized economy no longer exists. Driven in significant part by security considerations, a new and more diverse globalization is both required and being built. The transition is ongoing, and its final form is yet to be determined. Many of the causal factors for this very significant change revolve around China and the consequent responses to its actions by the United States, other democracies of the transatlantic alliance, and the advanced democratic economies of the Indo-Pacific. There are other important factors generating this new globalization including the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war both on energy markets and on trade and investment with Russia generally, as well as the global requirements for mitigating and adapting to climate change. However, China has been a critical element in what might be described as the “maximum trade-centered globalization,” which has dominated trade and investment policy in the three decades since the end of the Cold War. This issue brief describes the still-developing new globalization focusing on the issues surrounding China. A fundamental challenge that China presents arises because its actions have generated significant security and economic challenges, yet it nonetheless is a massive trade and investment partner for the “advanced democratic economies” (ADEs),1 which for purposes of this analysis include the Group of Seven (G7) countries,2 plus Australia, Norway, the Republic of Korea, and the European Union. Adapting to a new globalization requires establishing a strategic approach that resolves the inherent contradictions between those conflicting considerations.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Diplomacy, Environment, Politics, Science and Technology, Economy, Business, and Energy
Political Geography:: China, Europe, Eurasia, Canada, Asia, United States of America, and Indo-Pacific

1851. Authoritarian kleptocrats are thriving on the West’s failures. Can they be stopped?

Author:: Francis Shin and Ben Judah
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: A hidden web of power revealed itself to Internet users in early 2022. Following a brutal government crackdown in Kazakhstan in January, anyone using open-source flight-tracking websites could watch kleptocratic elites flee the country on private jets. A little more than a month later, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine brought a new spectacle: social media users were able to track various oligarchs’ superyachts as they jumped from port to port to evade Western sanctions. These feeds captured a national security problem in near real time: In Eurasia and beyond, kleptocratic elites with deep ties to the West were able to move themselves and their assets freely despite a host of speeches by senior officials, sanctions, and structures designed to stop them. Kleptocratic regimes—kleptocracy means “rule by thieves”—have exploited the lax and uneven regulatory environments of the global financial system to hide their ill-gotten gains and interfere in politics abroad, especially in the United States, the United Kingdom, and the European Union. They are aided in this task by a large cast of professional enablers within these jurisdictions. The stronger these forces get, the more they erode the principles of democracy and the rule of law. Furthermore, the international sanctions regime imposed on Russia in response to its invasion of Ukraine has little hope of long-term success if the global financial system itself continues to weaken. The West still has a long way to go to rein in the authoritarian kleptocrats who have thrived on the institutional dysfunction, regulatory failure, and bureaucratic weakness of the transatlantic community for far too long. We need to rethink not just how we combat kleptocracy, but also how we define it. Policy makers need to understand that authoritarian regimes that threaten transatlantic security are closely linked to illicit financial systems. As it stands, our thinking about how foreign corruption spreads is too constrained by stereotypes about kleptocratic goals and actions.
Topic:: Corruption, Diplomacy, Intelligence, Politics, Sanctions, Authoritarianism, Reform, European Union, Regulation, Finance, Economy, Rule of Law, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, United Kingdom, Europe, Ukraine, Canada, and United States of America

1852. Impact of economic sanctions on net commodity-producing and net commodity-consuming countries

Author:: Sergio R. Vale and Eduardo Viola
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional (RBPI)
Institution:: Instituto Brasileiro de Relações Internacionais (IBRI)
Abstract:: The war in Ukraine has had a marked economic impact. However, since Russia is a net producer of important commodities, the impact of sanctions on its economy was less than expected. But what would happen if there was a war involving a country that was a net importer of commodities? In the case of a possible China-US conflict over Taiwan, the impact on the world economy would be different, with a deeper recession around the world, but the impact on the Brazilian economy would still be positive on account of the possibility that would remain of agricultural exports to China.
Topic:: Agriculture, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Sanctions, Commodities, and Exports
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Europe, Ukraine, Taiwan, Asia, North America, and United States of America

1853. The impacts on the change of training architecture for UN Peacekeeping Operations in Brazil

Author:: Edson Ramon Lima Pereira dos Santos and Mariana Pimenta Oliveira Baccarini
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional (RBPI)
Institution:: Instituto Brasileiro de Relações Internacionais (IBRI)
Abstract:: This article seeks to analyze how norms and procedures created in International Organizations spread to member states. More specifically, the analysis focuses on how changes in the training architecture for UN peace operations, driven by the Brahimi report, caused institutional and procedural changes on the administrative, political and military spheres in Brazil. Combining official documents and analytical literature, through process tracing, we find that the main causal mechanism observed was emulation, given Brazil’s desire to adapt to use the capacity building as a tool for international action.
Topic:: International Cooperation, United Nations, Public Policy, Peace, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Global Focus

1854. What Losing the Iran Deal Could Mean for the Region

Author:: Seyed Hossein Mousavian
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: If President Joe Biden is seeking to restore sustainable peace and security in the region, he has to start with reviving the JCPOA
Topic:: Security, Nuclear Weapons, Military Strategy, Peace, JCPOA, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

1855. Navigating R2P Between Norm and Practice

Author:: Omar Auf
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: The idea that states are responsible for the protection of their own people is a powerful normative and transformative one, but is far from complete or conclusive
Topic:: Security, Governance, Police, and Responsibility to Protect (R2P)
Political Geography:: Global Focus

1856. Democratizing International Relations

Author:: Antonio de Aguiar Patriota
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: Former UN Secretary-General Boutros Boutros-Ghali deserves to be remembered for his defense of the application of democratic principles to the international order. Today, the multipolarity of the contemporary world can help further Botrous-Ghali’s vision
Topic:: International Relations, International Cooperation, United Nations, Democracy, Multilateralism, and International Order
Political Geography:: Global Focus

1857. Strategic Survival in Syria

Author:: Omar Abu Layla
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: How Russia and Iran maintain their grip in Syria under the shadows of the Ukraine war
Topic:: Defense Policy, Conflict, Strategic Stability, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Iran, Ukraine, Middle East, and Syria

1858. Fortune and Hazard for Algeria

Author:: Zine Labidine Ghebouli
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:: School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:: War in Ukraine has brought new cash flow to Algiers, but the state must walk an ever-narrowing path to maintain its non-alignment
Topic:: Security, Military Strategy, Conflict, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Africa and Algeria

1859. From a space of conflict to a space of peace: The role of urban planners in advancing the peace process

Author:: Oded Haas
Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Research Paper
Institution:: Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
Abstract:: This review paper is based on the concept of creating space to understand the ongoing Israeli-Palestinian conflict. In fact, the paper argues, the conflict produces and is produced by a process of creating conflict spaces. Therefore, intervention is proposed in the process of generating space in order to create an alternative to the conflict space – a space for peace. A joint planning model places urban planners at the heart of the space producing process, and identifies urban planning as activity with great impact potential, both because it mediates between the global economy, national policy, and individual daily life in the production of space, and because it can promote the creation of a peace space born of professional consensus. Joint planning is the practice of bringing knowledge, experience and an alternative perspective into the planning process. Mixed cities that constitute core spaces in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict are proposed as spaces that currently offer an opportunity to create change, or can be created as change, which will serve as a basis for turning the Israeli-Palestinian conflict space into the Israeli-Palestinian peace space.
Topic:: Conflict, Peace, Urban Planning, and Peacebuilding
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

1860. Area C: From a Hub of the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict to a Space for “Creeping Peace”

Author:: Omer Zanany
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
Abstract:: Area C of the Occupied Palestinian Territories is a key hub of the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict claimed by Israelis and Palestinians and left under temporary Israeli responsibility by the Interim Agreement (1995). For almost three decades, Israel has been reducing the Palestinian living space in the area and deepening its hold, managing all planning and building processes, expanding settlement areas and so-called “state lands” and demarcating “military zones” and “nature reserves” for itself. The collapse of the peace process also encouraged the Palestinian Authority (since 2009) to act unilaterally on the ground. While Israel has assumed a “piecemeal” approach and sees Area C as a vital space for settlement and security, the Palestinians have taken a “holistic” approach, viewing the area as a necessary space for a contiguous and sustainable state. The campaign currently being waged on the ground perpetuates friction and a bloody struggle over land and infrastructure, distances the chance of a stable Israeli-Palestinian agreement, prevents development and construction for Palestinians, poses a tangible danger to nature and the environment, and deepens humanitarian and legal challenges of population expulsion and relocation. Turning this important area into a foundation for Israeli-Palestinian progress requires two types of policies – a reactive policy in the short term to prevent further deterioration, and a long-term policy of practical cooperation. In light of the new radical right-wing government’s policy advocating the de facto annexation of Area C to Israel, the pro-peace camp must take preventive measures: promote a campaign to “unmask” the government’s moves and intentions and expose the dangers of annexation as a fatal blow to Israel’s identity, security, and political and economic standing; expand demonstrations in conjunction with the overall protest against the new government’s anti-democratic policies; file objections to settlement construction and to harmful measures against the Palestinians. Down the line, Israel and the Palestinians must abandon their “zero sum game” approach and instead formulate joint systemic planning and promote positive steps in Area C: approve outline plans for Palestinian construction that were already submitted to Israel for approval, prevent crime and piracy, and promote joint projects with international and Arab assistance. These include solar power fields, agricultural and food cultivation areas, water and wastewater treatment facilities, and industrial zones. Advancing these measures without a political horizon will result, at most, in some specific improvement. On the other hand, advancing measures with a view to a political settlement – including the transfer of parts of Area C to the Palestinian Authority (PA) and the advancement of a comprehensive economic plan for the Palestinians – will lead to a real change, strengthen Palestinian ability and motivation to prevent terrorism, and make it possible to gradually advance the two-state vision based on the “Creeping Peace” strategy.
Topic:: Occupation, Conflict, Peace, and Peacebuilding
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

1861. Building Resilience? The Cybersecurity, Economic & Trade Impacts of Cloud Immunity Requirements

Author:: Matthias Bauer
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
Abstract:: EU Member States should call on the EU’s Cybersecurity Agency (ENISA) and the European Commission to abandon immunity requirements in the proposed EU Cloud Certification Scheme (EUCS). With immunity requirements in the EUCS, the EU risks opening a Pandora’s box, paving the way for data localisation, foreign ownership restrictions, and local establishment requirements in digital industries globally leading to rising trade tensions. ENISA’s current proposal could increase policymakers’ appetite for data localisation in the EU. It would empower the European Commission and Member State authorities to exclude foreign businesses from domestic cloud services markets and set a dangerous precedent for any data-intensive sector. The list of “sectors of high criticality” could be logically extended to both existing services (e.g., financial services) and to new technologies and business models, such as IoT in the energy and healthcare sectors, and autonomous driving in the transport sector. Non-EU jurisdictions would be pressured to respond in kind. EUCS immunity requirements would increase cloud adopters’ exposure to cybersecurity risks. Data localisation often creates obstacles to an integrated management approach towards cybersecurity risks. Country of headquarter and foreign ownership restrictions in the proposed EUCS risk removing global frontier cybersecurity technologies from Member State markets. Excluding these and other EU and non-EU companies from EU Member States could result in a long-lasting security deficit of EU cloud adopters vis-à-vis organisations that are still able to use reliable and often best-practice cloud services offered by providers from outside EU Member States. Immunity requirements in the EUCS are discriminatory by design. They could provoke retaliatory measures by EU trading partners, either unilaterally or through WTO or bilateral FTA (e.g., UK-EU) Dispute Settlement. Local establishment requirements and foreign ownership restrictions would by design discriminate against foreign cloud providers. US-headquartered companies, which currently serve more than 75% of the EU market, would be most affected by EU immunity requirements.[1] Depending on US preferences and the scope of the proposed EUCS, the EU could be subject to retaliatory tariffs of up to USD 12 billion worth of EU goods exports or equivalent restrictions for EU services exports to the US. Other governments could lodge complaints via the WTO as well (e.g., Singapore, Japan, Canada and others, where cloud development is advancing rapidly). EU suppliers are currently in no position to manage a broad-based transition to cloud, and thus such requirements would delay significant efficiency and security gains that current foreign suppliers could offer. A blanket exclusion of non-EU cloud vendors would also likely undermine Europe’s objective to achieve a 75% cloud adoption rate for EU enterprises. Sensitive European businesses and public sector organisations would have to delay migration and make do with legacy systems for a very long time. Contrary to large countries, these negative impacts would be much more pronounced for smaller EU Member States, which lack the presence of large domestic incumbents and generally rely much more on an open international trading regime for digital services. ENISA’s cloud certification scheme should be limited to technical and transparency requirements. Immunity requirements for non-personal data should be addressed in bilateral initiatives such as the EU-US Trade and Technology Council (TTC) or agreements requiring a company that sought to offer services of the highest level of sensitivity to be headquartered in a country granted adequacy with EU data protection rules, or a country that is an adherent to the OECD’s Trusted Government Access principles, or (concerning the US) a participant in the upcoming Trans-Atlantic Data Privacy Framework. Excluding foreign companies from operating in the EU would have far-reaching consequences. If that is the intent, it should require a sound legal analysis and the decision should be taken through a formal legislative procedure at the EU level.
Topic:: Economics, Markets, European Union, Cybersecurity, Digital Economy, Trade, and Resilience
Political Geography:: Europe

1862. The Economic Dividend of Competitiveness

Author:: Fredrik Erixon, Oscar Guinea, Philipp Lamprecht, Elena Sisto, and Erik van der Marel
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
Abstract:: In a world of technological and economic rivalry, the EU must devote increased attention to its competitiveness. Higher levels of competitiveness will help the EU build a more prosperous economy which will in turn produce innovation and resources to address the great challenges of our time. ECIPE published a study presenting a competitiveness compass with concrete policy recommendations that will improve EU’s competitiveness. These policy recommendations, once implemented, will bring tangible benefits to the EU economy in the form of higher levels of trade and productivity. This report presents five scenarios in which the EU pursues competitiveness policies that lead to higher economic growth.
Topic:: Economics, Science and Technology, European Union, Economic Growth, and Competition
Political Geography:: Europe

1863. Building a Mature UK Trade Policy

Author:: David Henig
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
Abstract:: Global Britain has not delivered according to the hopes expressed by supporters of leaving the EU. Trade with the rest of the world has not grown to make up for leaving a bloc with seamless trade, early Free Trade Agreements with Australia and New Zealand are of minor economic significance, and it is hard to discern much of a strategy beyond completing a few more similar deals. Meanwhile the world of trade policy is transformed since 2016, negatively. The US has essentially declared its national interests to be more important than global rules, while the EU wants to act unilaterally as the global regulator. In both, the climate crisis is being used as an excuse to reintroduce protectionist measures threatening economic damage and global stability. Expectations of what a UK outside of the EU could achieve were exaggerated, but nonetheless the country could be doing a lot better in its trade policy. There is no good reason for such tensions as exist with a broad range of frustrated stakeholders, the absence of clear purpose on UK strengths such as services, or the defensiveness that seemingly takes pride in secrecy and resistance to proper scrutiny. Adjustment time was inevitable, but six years should have been enough.
Topic:: Economics, European Union, Free Trade, and Trade Policy
Political Geography:: United Kingdom and Europe

1864. In Support of Market-Driven Standards

Author:: Matthias Bauer, Fredrik Erixon, Oscar Guinea, and Vanika Sharma
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
Abstract:: The EU published its new Standardisation Strategy in 2022. The strategy contains some good ideas to improve the way European standards are set. However, in its attempt to gain more control over technical standards, the EU risks killing the goose that lays the golden egg. The primary motivation behind the strategy is the belief that the process governing the way CEN, CENELEC, and ETSI – the three European Standardisation Organisations – take decisions over EU standards favours non-EU multinationals. To address this perceived imbalance, EU National Standardisation Bodies will have the exclusive power to accept standardisation requests, and adopt, revise and withdraw European technical standards. These changes are particularly significant for ETSI, Europe’s Standardisation Body in charge of telecommunication standards and one of Europe’s most successful organisations. ETSI is a prime example of EU normative power since it hosts companies from more than 60 countries, while retaining a large membership of EU firms. The regulatory changes included in the strategy are not risk-free. There could be unintended consequences that may undermine a standardisation system that has delivered significant economic benefits for the EU and the world. First, giving more responsibility to EU’s National Standardisation Organisations will turn a European discussion into 30 (EU and EEA) national debates. As a consequence, small companies will not be able to contribute to each and every one of the National Standardisation Organisations, diluting their contribution, while multinational companies, with the resources needed to cooperate with a larger number of bodies, will benefit from an expanding role in the EU standard setting process. Second, if standards are fragmented along national borders and companies must multiply their efforts to take part in several Standardisation Development Organisations, there will be less resources for Research and Development spending. Finally, if each and every National Standardisation Organisation needs to have a position with regards to the acceptance of a standardisation request, or adoption, revision and withdrawal of European technical standards, the time period required to adopt a technical standard may be extended rather than shortened, which is the exact opposite of what the European Commission wants to achieve. The regulatory changes included in the EU Standardisation Strategy are akin to cracking a nut with a sledgehammer. If the European Commission is concerned about the influence of non-EU companies in European Standardisation Bodies, it does not need to overhaul their governance systems. Supporting greater participation of European firms in the European standard system will ease EU’s concerns without the downside risks associated with changing the rules of the game that govern Europe’s Standardisation Bodies. The success of the European standardisation system, which is market-driven and based on consensus, has had significant economic benefits in the development of specific industries, like the European Information and Communication Technologies (ICT). Technical standards in ICT have shaped a European industry that is not only dynamic and international but also enjoys some of the highest levels of wages and Research and Development spending. Moreover, if technical standards are not developed through an open, consensus-based, and industry-led voluntary process, they will be developed in different ways. For instance, governments and private companies can develop standards by themselves. Both solutions are inferior to the current market-driven approach that governs European standards. However, the European market-driven approach to set standards is voluntary, and its success and continuation must not be assumed. European policymakers should be worried about tinkering with a European standardisation system which has produced economic specialisation and innovation to the benefits of EU firms and consumers.
Topic:: Markets, European Union, Regulation, Economy, and Standardization
Political Geography:: Europe

1865. What is Wrong with Europe’s Shattered Single Market? – Lessons from Policy Fragmentation and Misdirected Approaches to EU Competition Policy

Author:: Matthias Bauer
Publication Date:: 04-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
Abstract:: What is wrong with Europe’s Single Market? The brief answer to that question is that it does not really exist – it is unsingle. The Single Market is in many ways a political illusion. It exists only nominally. Any company doing business in Europe faces significant barriers to cross-border exchanges within the EU, and it is these barriers that hamper companies’ ability to scale and compete internationally on the back of innovation and economic integration. We outline that Brussels and national governments need to beat the drum for eliminating policy fragmentation in Europe’s internal market and at the same time change course in competition policy to sufficiently support investments in innovation, business growth, and the adoption of advanced technologies across industries. Major economic indicators show that Europe is caught in a protracted corporate and technology crisis. The EU has for a very long time now been tailing US corporate and innovation leadership. At the same time, competition with technology-intensive imports from China is getting increasingly intense. Europe’s underperformance is rooted in a legally fragmented internal market which is disincentivising business growth and innovation. On top of that, an outdated approach to competition policy is discouraging businesses from adopting innovation and scaling across national borders, risking that EU companies continue to lose clout and international competitiveness. 30 years have passed since the formal establishment of Europe’s Single Market. Data reveals that regulatory convergence has reversed or come to a halt in most policy areas. Recent policies for technologies and digital business models, which are key sources of cross-industry competitiveness, created new layers of regulation and legal uncertainty in EU and Member State law. Overall, EU policies have not significantly helped European companies, large and small, to do business in another Member State or use advanced technology-enabled services. EU competition policy does not live up to its promise to “enable the proper functioning of the EU’s internal market”. Europe’s competition policy is still fragmented along national borders and largely ignorant to dynamic effects of competition, especially investments in innovation. Due to mixed legal competences, competition rules are often enforced differently by Member States’ national authorities and can be appropriated to support protectionist industrial policy ambitions. The recently enacted Digital Market Act (DMA) demonstrates that the European Commission and Member State authorities favour protection and discretionary enforcement over innovation and economic disruption, without providing solid evidence of abusive business behaviour and consumer harm. With the DMA, the EU introduced legislation with serious ambiguities in objectives, concepts, and rules, and explicitly allows national Member States to regulate competition at their own discretion. A recent attempt by Germany’s competition authority, the Bundeskartellamt, to enforce its own rulebook for large digital companies (Section 19a of the German Competition Act) risks creating a patchwork of competition rules for large providers of advanced digital services across the EU. Local adopters of advanced digital services, particularly small businesses, that use advanced technology services to compete in their markets would be confronted with less choice and quality. Recently imposed policies under the umbrella of European Strategic Autonomy will hardly help policymakers in their ambition to achieve “innovation and technology leadership”. The paramount task for the EU and national governments is to eliminate policy fragmentation in Europe’s internal market, accompanied by an approach to competition policy that embraces investments in innovation and business growth while accounting for the substantial value created through the adoption of innovative technologies and disruptive business models across industries in the EU.
Topic:: Markets, European Union, Economy, and Competition
Political Geography:: Europe

1866. Reforming Standard Essential Patents: Trade, Specialisation, and International Jurisprudence

Author:: Fredrik Erixon and Oscar Guinea
Publication Date:: 04-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
Abstract:: The European Commission is considering a radical overhaul of the system governing Standard Essential Patents (SEPs). A leaked proposal suggests that the Commission wants to take control over the registration of SEPs, take efforts to regulate their essentiality, and intervene in negotiations over royalty rates if parties do not come to an agreement. The underlying assumption is that such a system will benefit SEP implementers and the European economy, and that the common holders of SEPs will be cut down a size or two. The logic behind this policy is that, since there are more SEP implementers than holders, any change in favour of implementers will have a net positive effect on the EU economy. However, this is doubtful. The EU is a R&D powerhouse for many of the technologies protected under SEPs and since most of the global production of the goods using these technologies is done outside Europe, the EU is a net exporter of innovation and a receiver of revenues from the licensing of these technologies. Using data on trade, specialisation, and market revenues, this paper comes to a different conclusion: the EU economy is likely to be a net loser if the balance between holders and implementers is changed. Moreover, there is a general and fundamental interest for Europe to preserve a system of standards and SEPs that allows it to punch above its weight in international policies and practices in standards and patents.
Topic:: Reform, European Union, Trade, Patents, Specialization, European Commission, and Jurisprudence
Political Geography:: Europe

1867. Strategic Autonomy and the Competitiveness of Europe’s Innovative Pharmaceutical Sector: A Wake-up Call

Author:: Fredrik Erixon and Oscar Guinea
Publication Date:: 04-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
Abstract:: It is high time for Europe to break its relative decline in the pharmaceutical sector. Europe used to be the preeminent region in the world for Research and Development and innovation in the sector – being the location for a majority of R&D and the development of new medicines. However, its competitiveness has been going down for several decades – and, in more recent time, the pace of the decline is now accelerating. Europe is not just outpaced by the United States. Unless there is a new direction, China will soon be ahead of Europe too. Europe is behind the global frontier in innovation and new product development in medicines. It is not just Europe’s share of global R&D that is going down. Of all the new chemical and biological entities that are developed, Europe is contributing a falling share. There is a similar development in the drug pipeline – medicines that are in the regulatory approval process. The location of clinical trials for Advanced Therapy Medicinal Products – an area of new frontline drug development – is moving out of Europe. If Europe is to improve its strategic autonomy and restore competitiveness in the pharmaceutical sector, better policies are needed to incentivise innovation and attract R&D investment. A new strategy for the pharmaceutical industry should include – among other things – better protection of intellectual property, more and focused R&D expenditures, and streamlined regulatory and reimbursement processes.
Topic:: European Union, Pharmaceuticals, Strategic Autonomy, Research and Development, and Competition
Political Geography:: Europe

1868. Trade and Competitiveness: Putting the Firm at the Centre of the Analysis

Author:: Lucian Cernat and Oscar Guinea
Publication Date:: 06-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
Abstract:: The European Commission published its communication for the long-term competitiveness of the EU. Trade and Open Strategic Autonomy were among the selected policy areas that will drive EU competitiveness in the future and trade with the rest of the world as a share of EU Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was the selected indicator to measure progress. This Policy Brief proposes a new set of indicators that complement this and similar indicators that focus on the value of trade. Using the Trade by Enterprise Characteristics (TEC) database, this paper produces indicators that measure the number of exporters, non-EU suppliers, non-EU customers, and foreign companies. By putting the firm at the centre of the analysis, these indicators offer insights that complement policy-makers’ views on trade and competitiveness.
Topic:: European Union, GDP, Trade, Strategic Autonomy, European Commission, Economic Competition, and Competition
Political Geography:: Europe

1869. Increasing Systemic Legal Risks in the EU: The Economic Impacts of Changes to the EU’s Product Liability Legislation

Author:: Matthias Bauer and Elena Sisto
Publication Date:: 06-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
Abstract:: The EU’s Product Liability Directive (PLD) determines the rules for strict product liability in the EU. It establishes a framework in which manufacturers’ liability is determined solely based on the presence of defects in the product, regardless of the manufacturer’s fault. The PLD is intended to serve as a “safety net” when fault-based or contractual liability rules do not offer sufficient compensation to consumers. It operates independently from contractual arrangements between businesses and consumers, and it cannot be weakened by contractual agreements between businesses and consumers. The PLD is a horizontal regulation that applies to a wide range of industries in the EU because it applies to all products available on the EU market. The recently proposed changes by the European Commission would increase systemic legal uncertainty for producers and sellers of technology-intensive goods and services in the EU. The impact assessment of the European Commission does not sufficiently account for changes to the PLD proposed in 2022. Nor does it sufficiently account for the major impacts of increased legal uncertainty for European businesses. Legislators in the Council and the European Parliament should slow negotiations to allow time for policymakers to collect more evidence on the impacts on businesses, insurers, and courts we detail in this paper. This would be an opportunity to improve regulatory quality in light of the high levels of legal uncertainty associated with the changes proposed by the Commission.
Topic:: Economics, European Union, Legislation, and Risk
Political Geography:: Europe

1870. The Insurance Implications of Government Student Loan Repayment Schemes

Author:: Martin Gervais, Qian Liu, and Lance Lochner
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for Human Capital and Productivity (CHCP), Western University
Abstract:: A large literature examines the extent to which consumption responds to idiosyncratic earnings shocks.1 This paper studies whether student loan repayments serve as a source of insurance, much like government tax and transfer programs.2 Indeed, this insurance mechanism is an explicit aim of formal income-contingent repayment schemes in many countries, where the efficient structure of contingencies depends on such market frictions as moral hazard, adverse selection, and costly income verification (Lochner and Monge-Naranjo, 2016). We use new administrative data that links detailed information on Canadian student loan recipients with their repayment and income histories from the Canada Student Loans Program (CSLP), income tax filings, and post-secondary schooling records to measure the extent to which student borrowers adjust loan repayments to insure against income variation.3 Several mechanisms are available for students to adjust loan repayments in response to income fluctuations: formal, like CSLP’s Repayment Assistance Plan (RAP); and informal, such as delinquency or default. Close to 30% of students are enrolled in RAP soon after graduation, although that fraction falls as incomes rise thereafter. ∗ Gervais: University of Georgia, Athens, mgervaisca@gmail.com. Liu: Brock University, St. Catharines, Canada, qliu@brocku.ca. Lochner: Western University, London, Canada, llochner@uwo.ca. We thank the Statistics Canada Research Data Centres at Western University and McMaster University. Lochner gratefully acknowledge support from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada. 1See, e.g., the survey by Meghir and Pistaferri (2011) and references therein. 2Brzozowski et al. (2010) show that the tax and transfer system in Canada is very effective at absorbing income movements. 3Lochner, Liu and Gervais (2021) document sizable transfers implicit in the CSLP through differences in repayment by expected post-school income. Within 5 years of graduation, nearly 10% of borrowers have defaulted on their debt. In addition, borrowers can make larger payments than required should they experience unexpectedly high income: 40% of borrowers have fully repaid their student debt within 5 years of graduation. Indeed, loan payments are shown to increase in income, more so in early years and for individuals with higher initial debt. More formally, we estimate that on average, an unexpected $1,000 change in yearover-year income is associated with a $30 change in loan payment: from a $50 change the year after graduation, declining to a $20 change 5 years after graduation. Loan repayments are also used to absorb income variation that is more permanent in nature: for borrowers whose income is consistently below or above expected income at graduation, the magnitude of average repayment adjustment is similar to the average yearly response.
Topic:: Debt, Education, Economy, Insurance, and Student Loans
Political Geography:: Canada and North America

1871. The Putin Doctrine: What is it? The Russian Strategic Issue and the Enlarged National Security

Author:: Jose Alexandre Altahyde Hage
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
Institution:: Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Abstract:: One can mention that this essay is only a contribution for an urgent issue in International Relations that is igniting debates in part of the academic community and the press in general, Russian expansionism and its conception of international security that, in our view, can be defined as enlarged national security. For Moscow, the dividing line between the international and the domestic whereas considering this issue is very thin4. This is why it is not a part of our objective to exhaust such a broad and complex topic, but to present some of its features.The period analysed in this article begins in 1991, with the demise of the Soviet Union, till January 2022, that marks the beginning of military exercises in some parts of Ukraine, namely the Donbass region, promoted by Putin ́s government. Our theoretical and methodological framework is based on classical and contemporary geopolitical literature, Halford Mackinder and Zbigniew Brzezinski, and International Relations realist thinkers such as Henry Kissinger and John Mearsheimer. Nevertheless, that does not mean that we will not be able to reference some liberal authors, such as Francis Fukuyama and Joseph Stiglitz.Apart from this Introduction, our essay is divided as such: a first part in which we propose a brief review of the concept of doctrine, as used by interstate politics and the State ́s national power principle. Following, we present an analysis of the Putin Doctrine, seen as both a result and as a drive for Moscow ́s revisionism in the face of the current geopolitical balance. In the third part, we examine some passages of the 1990s and of this emerging system, as an era of globalization, liberalization and “shock therapy” that disturbed the Russian quantum. Last, but not least, in our Final Thoughts some reflections will be brought.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, Military Strategy, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Russia and Europe

1872. Political Analysis of the Purchase and technology Transfer Process for Gropen Fighters

Author:: Francisco Porto Junior and Marco Antonio Alves
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
Institution:: Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Abstract:: This article aims to present a descriptive study from a qualitative perspective through a bibliographical analysis, according to Coutinho (2014), which aims to discuss the political process of purchase and Technology Transfer (TT) of GRIPEN NG fighters. For this, we resort to the study of the decision-making process involving interrelationships between the main actors, consensus, interests and values. The goals is to present some reflections about the results of the political game that had taken place during the FHC, Lula and Dilma governments, to verify their relationship with the neoliberal political-social project and its actors in the international sphere. As a guide for this study, questions are presented, which must be answered throughout the text referring to political actors: Who were these actors? How did political actors act? What are the reasons for their actions?
Topic:: Science and Technology, Governance, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Global Focus

1873. The East Mediterranean Gas Forum: Convergence of Regional and Energy Security Concerns

Author:: Stefy Joseph and Aneeta Thomas Peedikayil
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
Institution:: Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Abstract:: As energy insecurity remains an imminent characteristic of energy security, it can simultaneously influence the securitization of non-energy referent objects in other sectors (Adamides and Odysseas 2015). This leads one to examine the geopolitical underpinnings behind the formation of the EMGF which by and large has affected the region as a whole. Egypt, the region’s star player has always played a fundamental role in harbouring relations based on energy and regional security and hence its relations with Greece, Cyprus, Israel, France, Italy and the EU needs examination in the wake of the establishment of the EMGF. The EMGF has been kept as the central pillar in understanding the international political economy behind the energy and regional security convergences by the above-mentioned member states. The objective behind undertaking this study has been to point out the inadequacies in establishing the EMGF which has inevitably shaped the geopolitics of the region.
Topic:: Security, Energy Policy, Natural Resources, and Gas
Political Geography:: Global Focus

1874. United States Foreign Policy Towards Jordan From the Political and Security Dimensions from 1990 to 2017

Author:: Ala Alkhawaldeh and Ayman Hayajneh
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
Institution:: Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Abstract:: Foreign policy cannot be dissociated from what we call the theory of international relations (Holsti, 2015). Relations between Jordan and the United States go back to 1949 when diplomatic relations were first established. The United States contributed to providing economic and military assistance to Jordan for the first time since 1951 and 1957, respectively, and has continued until now. The United States and Jordan share the common goals of a comprehensive, just, and lasting peace in the Middle East and to end violent extremism that threatens the security of Jordan, the region, and the world at large. The peace process and counterterrorism between the two countries aid American interests. The United States has helped Jordan maintain its stability and prosperity through military assistance and close political cooperation (Bush, 2009).This study examines the United States foreign policy towards Jordan from 1990 to 2017. This period witnessed important regional and international political events that significantly impacted American foreign policy in the Arab region and the United States - Jordan in particular. The political events covered in the study have the greatest impact on the development or decline of relations between the two countries in terms of politically and security aspects.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Military Strategy, Hegemony, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

1875. The Foreign Policy of Post-Revolutionary Iran: Expediency at the Crossroad of Suprra-Nationalism and Soverignty

Author:: Hamoon Khelghat-Doost
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
Institution:: Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Abstract:: The direction of the Islamic Republic of Iran’s foreign policy has been a source of argument among scholars since the establishment of the revolutionary regime in 1979. Iran’s foreign policy just like its revolution is still a mystery to many researchers as it is difficult to find an appropriate theoretical framework for it. Revolution and how revolutionary states such as China and Cuba view the world and build their foreign relations with other nations have been long discussed in the works of prominent scholars including Leng (1972), Armstrong (1993), Walt (1996), Halliday (2002), and Doma-Nguez & Domínguez (2009). However, what makes the foreign policy of revolutionary Iran different from other revolutionary states (mostly Marxist revolutions) and, therefore, more confusing to study, is the Shi’a Islamic nature of it.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Military Strategy, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Iran and Middle East

1876. The Belt and Road Initiative: Dynamics for Latin America and the Caribbean Region

Author:: Anurag Tripathi, Abhishek R.L., and Arun Teja
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
Institution:: Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Abstract:: To examine the challenges and risks arising from the Belt and Road Initiative, this article, in its initial section undertakes a case study of Venezuela in explaining the probable debt-trap situation arising in the Latin American region. Following it, the next section examines the risks arising from BRI from the perspective of dependency theory. It is observed that the US has taken the Latin American region for granted. However, China appears to encroach into what the US considers as its backyard. With this hindsight, China’s increasing involvement in the region is dichotomously analyzed to ponder whether it is a strategy to gain influence or an extension of peaceful rise in the third section. China’s post-pandemic investments in LAC have been analyzed to enhance the argument of a tussle between the US and China. This provides a clear picture of how the two global economic giants are scrambling their money to sustain their influence over LAC. Finally, digital geopolitics has also been considered in explaining the risks and challenges of BRI. It is observed that without any data regulation regime currently across the world, would end up LAC states into what we call data-trap. As all the above is considered, it cannot be ignored that the future of geopolitics is no more validly explained through hegemonic stability theory or hierarchical structures. It is either going to be a horizontally varied power poles anchored to the regional institutions or going back to the idea of sovereignty as the main concept
Topic:: International Cooperation, Infrastructure, Hegemony, and Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)
Political Geography:: China, Asia, South America, and Venezuela

1877. tarr Forum: Iran and the Struggle for 'Normalcy': Woman, Life, Freedom

Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: MIT Center for International Studies
Abstract:: The death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini on September 16, 2022, in government custody sparked what is commonly referred to as the "hijab protests" but the uprising is about much more, including such themes as agency, women rights, human rights, democracy, political freedoms, due process and justice. This panel investigates how women are at the forefront of resistance to the "Resistance State" in the struggle for "normalcy."
Topic:: Gender Issues, Feminism, Equality, and Activism
Political Geography:: Iran and Middle East

1878. Refugees Revitalizing Emptied Spain

Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: MIT Center for International Studies
Abstract:: Susan Akram is a Clinical Professor at the Boston University School of Law and the Director of the International Human Rights Clinic. Her research and publications focus on immigration, asylum, refugee, forced migration, and human and civil rights issues, with an interest in the Middle East, the Arab, and Muslim world. She is currently leading the "Refugees Revitalizing Emptied Spain" project, which would place refugees and asylum seekers in municipalities that are struggling to survive in the face of massive population loss, as young people move to larger cities in search of economic opportunities.
Topic:: Immigration, Refugees, Asylum, and Humanitarian Crisis
Political Geography:: Europe and Spain

1879. Starr Forum: Ukraine and Russia One Year On: The Domestic Impact of the War

Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: MIT Center for International Studies
Abstract:: Ukraine and Russia One Year On: The Domestic Impact of the War
Topic:: Defense Policy, Military Strategy, Governance, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

1880. Enhancing the Benefits of Human Mobility through Development Interventions

Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: MIT Center for International Studies
Abstract:: During each academic year, the Committee sponsors a seminar series on international migration, The Myron Weiner Seminar Series on International Migration, held at MIT's Center for International Studies. The seminars explore factors affecting international population movements and their impact upon sending and receiving countries and relations among them.
Topic:: Development, Migration, Displacement, and Mobility
Political Geography:: Global Focus

1881. Crossing the Divide: Rural to Urban Migration in Developing Countries

Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Video
Institution:: MIT Center for International Studies
Abstract:: Robert E.B. Lucas is Professor of Economics at Boston University. His research has focused largely, though not exclusively, on developing countries. Most of the contributions are empirical with a few theory papers, encompassing international and internal migration, employment and human resources, income distribution and inter-generational inequality, international trade and industry, sharecropping, and the environment. His publications include seven books, the most recent of which are Migration and Development: The Role for Development Aid (2019) and Crossing the Divide: Rural to Urban Migration in Developing Countries (2021).
Topic:: Development, Migration, Governance, Urban, and Rural
Political Geography:: Global Focus

1882. State Upgrading in Global Value Chains and Production Networks: A Conceptual Note

Author:: Andries Bezuidenhout and Søren Jeppesen
Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for Business and Development Studies (CBDS), Copenhagen Business School
Abstract:: Despite the contribution and influence of the Global Value Chains (GVCs) and Global Production Networks (GPNs) perspectives on our understanding of processes of economic and social development, the understanding of the role of the state within in this framework has some limitations. Based on an assessment of perspectives on the role of the state within GVCs/GPNs, we propose that there is a need to supplement these existing understandings of the state with an analysis of ‘state upgrading’. Recognizing state upgrading as a distinct process, but related to economic and social upgrading, provides an opportunity to analyze in more detail the dynamic exchange between state institutions and GVCs/GPNs. This allows for the development of an enhanced understanding of what the substantive dimensions of the role of the state within GVCs/GPNs consists of. We suggest that such dimensions should include ‘state representational upgrading’ and ‘state institutional upgrading’. We further propose to extent the analysis to what we term the ‘upgrading nexus’ – describing the dynamic interaction between the three types of upgrading in relation to the main actors in GVCs/GPNs (the private sector/industry, the civil society/labor, and the state). With such an approach, we imply an analytical understanding of how economic, social, and state upgrading in GVCs/GPNs are either mutually reinforcing, or potentially mutually undermining. Our aim is to suggest a way of analytically addressing the role of the state within GVCs/GPNs to supplement and refine existing approaches, not to propose to develop an original theory of the state.
Topic:: Economy, Business, Networks, Institutions, Global Value Chains, Production, and State Upgrading
Political Geography:: Global Focus

1883. Potential and Pitfalls for African Industrialization in Chinese-built Standard Gauge Railways

Author:: Yunnan Chen
Publication Date:: 04-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for Business and Development Studies (CBDS), Copenhagen Business School
Abstract:: Railway development has been a key feature of transport infrastructure investments in several African economies, with several new standard gauge railways (SGR) built in the last ten years in Ethiopia, Nigeria, and Kenya. These planned projects have also entailed substantial Chinese involvement through construction contractors, in financing, and in the operations and management, becoming part of the wider Chinese discourse of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). They also have significant potential in supporting the industrialization plans of African states, and in some cases, have been explicitly linked to plans for a green transformation. This brief draws from case studies across Africa with a focus on Ethiopia, to highlight the significant potential of railway investments as a low-cost, low-carbon transport for green industrialization, but also its pitfalls and challenges as an infrastructure for governance, and local technology transfer.
Topic:: Development, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Industrialization, and Railways
Political Geography:: China and Africa

1884. Electric Vehicles and the Changing Automotive GVC: A Window of Opportunity for African Countries?

Author:: Tobias Wuttke
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for Business and Development Studies (CBDS), Copenhagen Business School
Abstract:: Only two African countries have successfully integrated with the automotive GVC to date: South Africa and Morocco. Their experiences, compared to other even more successful developing and emerging economies with automotive industries, highlight both the opportunities as well as the limitations of automotive GVC participation as an economic development engine. Scale in vehicle production, facilitated by government industrial policy, is the key prerequisite for successful participation with localisation benefits. These fundamentals do not change with the shift to electric vehicles. Governments in Africa and elsewhere need to attract FDI in electric vehicle production and from there can support the development of a local component and materials value chain. Once these basics are covered, governments and local firms can aim for making use of the technological window of opportunity by investing in EV-related technology, mainly battery technology, to potentially capture more value from automotive GVC participation than has traditionally been possible in the ICE vehicle value chain.
Topic:: Development, Industrial Policy, Foreign Direct Investment, Global Value Chains, Automotive Industry, and Electric Vehicles
Political Geography:: Africa

1885. Current Capabilities and Future Potential of African Textile and Apparel Industries

Author:: Lindsay Whitfield and Chema Triki
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for Business and Development Studies (CBDS), Copenhagen Business School
Abstract:: The textile and apparel industry is a globalised industry characterised by a high degree of dependency and fragmentation in global supply chains. From the mid-20th century, cotton textile and apparel manufacturing production relocated from industrialised to developing countries, particularly in Asia, and was quickly followed by the emergence of the petrochemical industry and synthetic fibre production in East Asian countries, while South Asia continued to focus on cotton and natural fibres. China, Bangladesh, and Vietnam are currently the central players in global apparel supply chains, with China and increasingly Vietnam having vertically integrated industries with access to a diverse range of fabrics and thus a large product portfolio. The largest apparel consumer markets are concentrated in Europe, North America, and other wealthy countries such as Japan, as they have higher purchasing power and economically larger markets. Large emerging economies such as China and India largely supply their domestic markets but have not yet become major destination consumption markets for other developing economies. Changes in international trade over the past 30 years fostered the textile and apparel global value chain dynamic. These changes were marked by opening trade borders, lowering tariffs, tax breaks or subsidies offered by various governments, and free trade agreements. Low labour costs and lower production costs have shaped the decisions of global actors to relocate their operations from one country to another. Current global trends are set to transform the global value chains of textiles and apparel again. These trends include increasing production costs in China, the drive to shorten supply chains post-Covid pandemic through nearshoring and seeking countries with yarn-to-garment (or vertical) production capabilities, and a sustainability shift. These trends are leading global apparel buyers to diversify their sourcing away from China and Asia more generally and to consider new supply bases. These structural trends in the industry, together with the AfCFTA, represent a window of opportunity for African countries. African industry actors and their governments should build new textile and apparel industries that seek to participate in global and regional markets and engage with global technologies and international partnerships. Attracting foreign firms with the necessary technical, organisational, and managerial capabilities is essential. The AfCFTA represents a powerful tool to respond to the verticality need of the industry, considering the current production levels of raw materials, but also an opportunity to increase the number of African countries with industrial capabilities in textile and apparel. The ongoing negotiations on rules of origin will significantly impact the continent's potential to create synergetic regional value chains.
Topic:: Development, Industrial Policy, International Trade and Finance, Business, Supply Chains, and Textile Industry
Political Geography:: Africa

1886. Climate Change Mitigation for Late Industrialisers: The Role of Technology Intensity in Manufacturing

Author:: Elvis Korku Avenyo and Fiona Tregenna
Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for Business and Development Studies (CBDS), Copenhagen Business School
Abstract:: Many developing countries now have a renewed focus on industrialisation and industrial policy. This is based on the recognition that industrialisation is a key driver of long-term economic progress and is the central route to improve the well-being of citizens in developing countries (Chenery, 1955; Tregenna, 2016; United Nations Industrial Development Organization [UNIDO], 2016). At the same time, the climate crisis poses an existential threat to the global economy and to humanity and has emerged as a challenge to the industrial development prospects and pathways of developing countries. This is because industrialisation is an important contributor to global warming, specifically to anthropogenic emissions of cardon dioxide (CO2.) (Adom et al., 2012; Han & Chatterjee, 1997). Late industrialisers thus face a dual challenge: industrialising while mitigating climate change (Altenburg & Rodrik, 2017). Hence, there is now a degree of tension as to how late industrialisers can achieve long-term economic development under paths involving heavy or intensive industrialisation, while mitigating emissions and environmental damage more broadly. An emerging discourse recognises the critical need for developing countries to push towards industrial development that, while generating growth in productivity and jobs, is also environmentally sustainable. This is especially important, as poorer countries are particularly vulnerable to the immediate effects of the climate crisis (Altenburg & Rodrik, 2017; Padilla, 2017). Thus, transforming towards sustainable production systems and green industrial policies offers developing countries opportunities to industrialise in an environmentally sustainable way while contributing to job creation and economic prosperity (Altenburg & Rodrik, 2017; Padilla, 2017; Rodrik, 2014). However, the high ‘green premia’ and new access barriers to the ‘green’ energy technologies from advanced economies directly threaten this potential sustainable industrial development pathway in developing countries.
Topic:: Climate Change, Development, Science and Technology, Manufacturing, Industrialization, Sustainability, and Carbon Emissions
Political Geography:: Global Focus

1887. Centralization in National High-Performance Sports Systems: Reasons, Processes, Dimensions, Characteristics, and Open Questions

Author:: Wolfgang Maennig
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Chair for Economic Policy, University of Hamburg
Abstract:: Centralization provides for the bundling of tasks that are relevant to the achievement of an institution's goals. Centralization is discussed in almost all areas of life: For example, in politics (more centralized structures in France vs. more decentralized structures in Germany), in economics (centrally planned organization as in the former COMECON-Countries), decentralized decision-making at the individual level in market economies), and at the corporate level. Objects of centralization can be, for example, decision-making processes, products, personnel and customer groups. In some cases, the aim is to centralize (only) certain objects, while other activities are to remain decentralized, for example. In some cases, centralization in some areas virtually necessitates decentralization in others: For example, centralization by product usually leads to decentralization by sales area. Synergy effects, specialization advantages and, ultimately, cost degression effects are cited as benefits or advantages of more centralization; duplication of work and infrastructure can be avoided. Decision-making processes can be accelerated and simplified – subordinate or geographically distant units do not participate in the decision-making process. Unified concepts and strategies can be better enforced. “Density effects" must also be taken into account: There often are positive spill-over effects between people with related activities, for example, due to imitation and learning effects, but also due to the exchange of experience, which leads to an increase in the productivity of those involved. However, the decentralization tendencies that have emerged as a result of the Corona pandemic, for example through homeworking, partly question this finding. One of the disadvantages of centralization is that large centralized companies have high demands on information and decision-making systems because the experience, problems and ideas for solutions that arise decentrally have to reach the decisionmakers and therefore often (but not always) react more slowly to external changes. Less consideration may be given to regional peculiarities. Due to the standardization usually associated with centralization the scope for adaptation to specific circumstances may be lost. Centralization can increase the distance of decision-makers from "grassroots" concerns. The non-central units can suffer from devaluation, delegitimization, and demotivation, possibly associated with a long-term decrease of activities. The restricted competition of ideas can lead to a long-term decline in competitiveness, since the reduced competencies of the decentralized employees can inhibit their individual performance development. Centralization leads to a greater burden on central decisionmakers because the quantity and complexity of decisions increase. Individuals affected by centralization (in a different location) may experience family relocation problems and additional financial problems. The Corona pandemic and the current China discussion have brought additional arguments into the discussion with contagion risks for (too) many and (too) strong dependencies/blackmail possibilities on centralized procurement. And Ukraine's energy supply, which is based on relatively few large nuclear power plants, illustrates the possible increased susceptibility of certain centralized structures to crises.
Topic:: Sports, Economic Policy, Olympics, and Centralization
Political Geography:: Europe, Germany, and Global Focus

1888. Erdoğan's Re-election as President Raises Concerns among Allies

Author:: Aleksandra Maria Spancerska
Publication Date:: 06-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s win in the presidential election and ministerial appointments promises to further weaken democracy, move Türkiye further away from EU standards, and continue so-called personal diplomacy and transactionalism in foreign policy. This could prolong the Turkish parliament’s ratification of Sweden’s accession to NATO.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, NATO, Diplomacy, Elections, European Union, and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan
Political Geography:: Europe, Turkey, Middle East, and Sweden

1889. EU-South Korea Extend Cooperation Beyond the Economy

Author:: Oskar Pietrewicz
Publication Date:: 06-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: The 10th EU-Republic of Korea Summit, held on 22 May in Seoul, reaffirmed the importance of South Korea as a critical Asian partner of the Union. The meeting also signalled the growing importance of security issues in bilateral relations. South Korea shares the EU’s assessment of Russian aggression against Ukraine and intends to continue to support the invaded country, but not with supplies of military equipment for now. The announcement of a “green” partnership indicates both sides’ willingness to engage in other areas of cooperation, which also will benefit the development of Polish-South Korean relations.
Topic:: Security, International Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, and European Union
Political Geography:: Europe, South Korea, and Poland

1890. Examining Changes in Regional Cooperation in Central Europe from a Polish Perspective

Author:: Tomasz Żornaczuk
Publication Date:: 06-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: The Visegrad Group (V4), until recently the most active and multidimensional cooperation platform in Central Europe, does not serve currently to strengthen the voice of the region on the most essential issues concerning its security. This is because Hungary’s stance on Russia’s attack on Ukraine is different than that of its partners. That is why Poland is tightening relations with the other Visegrad countries—Czechia and Slovakia. At the same time, Poland is also intensifying cooperation with the Baltic states, which has its source in joint actions on security and eastern affairs in the years preceding the war.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Regional Cooperation, Visegrad Group, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Ukraine, Poland, Hungary, Central Europe, Slovakia, and Czechia

1891. What is the Significance of Prigozhin's Revolt for Russian Security Policy?

Author:: Anna Maria Dyner
Publication Date:: 06-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: On the night of 23-24 June, Yevgeny Prigozhin, the head of the Wagner Group private military company, which has been fighting in Ukraine and operating elsewhere, stood up to the Russian Ministry of Defence and began an armed march on Moscow. However, in the end he and his forces did not storm the capital, officially as a result of negotiations led by Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenka. Prigozhin’s actions will worsen the morale of Russian soldiers and mercenaries fighting in Ukraine but will not change Russia’s hostile actions towards NATO countries.
Topic:: NATO, Wagner Group, Russia-Ukraine War, Private Military Companies (PMCs), and Yevgeny Prigozhin
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

1892. EU Development Cooperation Policy Shifts from Charity to Self-interest

Author:: Patryk Kugiel
Publication Date:: 06-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: In recent years, the EU’s development cooperation policy has evolved, moving away from an approach based on poverty eradication and the needs of partner countries to focusing more on its own interests. This change is supported by the majority of EU members. This gives the EU the opportunity to exert strategic influence in the world but risks the loss of its unique identity as an altruistic donor and attractive partner in development cooperation. The change in the Union’s approach is consistent with the position of Poland, which can use it to reform and strengthen its development aid system.
Topic:: Development, Regional Cooperation, European Union, and Development Aid
Political Geography:: Europe and Poland

1893. Syria returns to the Arab League

Author:: Sara Nowacka
Publication Date:: 05-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: The decision to restore Syria’s membership in the Arab League (AL) is aimed at Arab states gaining greater control over the situation in the region and reducing external influence, including that of the West. Although the AL imposed a number of obligations on Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad, such as holding elections, it is doubtful whether the League can enforce them. The organisation’s decision to normalise relations with Syria will be used to undermine the effectiveness of the sanctions in counteracting violations of international law, also in the context of the Russian aggression against Ukraine.
Topic:: International Law, Sanctions, Syrian War, Normalization, Bashar al-Assad, Arab League, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Arab Countries and Syria

1894. Using Frozen Russian Assets to Rebuild Ukraine: Possibilities for the EU

Author:: Elzbieta Kaca
Publication Date:: 05-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: The EU wants to finance the reconstruction of Ukraine, using for this purpose frozen Russian assets, among others. The European Commission proposes to improve the system of confiscation of private assets of sanctioned persons in case of criminal activity and to obtain income from the active management of immobilised Russian public assets. These solutions may yield limited results. To be more effective, the EU would have to reach an international agreement to confiscate the reserves of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation.
Topic:: Sanctions, Reconstruction, European Union, Assets, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

1895. Ending the War in Sudan will be Difficult

Author:: Jędrzej Czerep
Publication Date:: 05-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: Fighting in Sudan between the regular army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) has been ongoing since 15 April. The clashes are mainly taking place in the capital, Khartoum, and in the Darfur region, causing the destruction of infrastructure, a humanitarian disaster, and the displacement of the population. Although neither side has achieved military superiority or the support of the population, they are determined to continue fighting until the opponent is eliminated, which makes efforts to achieve a permanent ceasefire difficult. In the longer term, international support for a political solution to the crisis should aim to restore civilian control of the state.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, War, Armed Forces, and Humanitarian Crisis
Political Geography:: Africa and Sudan

1896. West and China Compete for Tech Influence in Arab Persian Gulf States

Author:: Sara Nowacka
Publication Date:: 05-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: New technologies are an increasingly important element of the Sino-American rivalry in the Persian Gulf. China has become the preferred partner in this area due to, for example, the dominant role of government (vs. private) investment in the technology sector in both China and the Gulf states. The intensification of cooperation between the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and China in the field of new technologies may increase the influence of authoritarian states in setting technological standards.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Authoritarianism, Investment, Rivalry, and Gulf Cooperation Council
Political Geography:: China, Middle East, United States of America, and Gulf Nations

1897. China Becoming Globally More Active in the Security Sphere

Author:: Marcin Przychodniak
Publication Date:: 05-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: China is expanding its potential to project power abroad. It includes legal changes, expansion of military infrastructure in other countries, and cooperation with partners in the Pacific. An example of their activity in the field of security is the operations of Chinese security companies, mainly in the Middle East and Africa. This should encourage NATO to further deepen cooperation with its members and partners, including with Pacific countries, as well as to strengthen the coordination of EU and U.S. policy towards developing countries.
Topic:: Security, NATO, Infrastructure, and Partnerships
Political Geography:: Africa, China, Middle East, Asia, and Asia-Pacific

1898. Businesses, EU Strengthening International Supply Chains

Author:: Piotr Dzierżanowski
Publication Date:: 04-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: Over the past three years, global supply chains have experienced problems on an unprecedented scale. Given the rising political tensions and changes in the perception of the role of the economy in international rivalries, a return to international economic relations based on globalisation and trade liberalisation is highly unlikely. Instead, we will witness a necessary strengthening of supply chains, both at the individual business and national levels. For Western economies, the main challenge will be the reduction of related costs.
Topic:: Globalization, European Union, Economy, Business, and Supply Chains
Political Geography:: Europe and Global Focus

1899. Building a Coalition - the U.S. Faces Down Competition with China in the Chip Sector

Author:: Damian Wnukowski
Publication Date:: 04-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: In recent months, the U.S. has intensified its international efforts to limit China’s ability to produce the most advanced chips. The result includes the introduction by Japan and the Netherlands of restrictions on the export of modern machines for chip production. In response, China is trying to attract foreign investment and develop its own potential in this sector. The U.S. actions may significantly slow the pace of China’s technological development and economic growth and limit its potential to further strengthen its military capabilities. This may make it difficult for China to support Russia with dual-use products and render possible offensive actions against Taiwan harder.
Topic:: Economy, Production, Semiconductors, and Competition
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

1900. South Africa-Russia Maintain Special Relations

Author:: Jędrzej Czerep
Publication Date:: 04-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: Although South Africa declares it is neutral regarding the war in Ukraine and offers mediation, it remains a de facto ally of Russia. This is due to the strong sentiment among the ruling elites for the period of cooperation with the USSR, its successor Russia and its activity and influence in this country, and the perception that BRICS will help elevate South Africa’s international importance. If Vladimir Putin visits Johannesburg as scheduled in August, the authorities of the state, which is party to the Rome Statute, will not be willing to fulfil their obligation to arrest him or may even leave the International Criminal Court.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, BRICS, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:: Africa, Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and South Africa

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