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8702. Protecting the Protectors: Preventing and Mitigating Domestic Violent Extremism in the Military, Veteran, and Law Enforcement Communities
- Author:
- Carrie Cordero, Katherine L. Kuzminski, Arona Baigal, and Josh Campbell
- Publication Date:
- 12-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Center for a New American Security (CNAS)
- Abstract:
- In recent years, the involvement of currently serving military members and law enforcement officers, as well as veterans of those two professions, in domestic violent extremist organizations and activities has received public attention. While they represent the minority of those engaged in domestic violent extremism (DVE), their participation merits additional scrutiny, given the nature of their professions—which includes taking a sworn oath to defend the Constitution and the nation, possessing the authority to use force to safeguard national security and public safety, and adhering to a professional ethic. It is especially important to scrutinize their participation in DVE because members of these communities have engaged in violence against the very system they are sworn to protect. There are three phases in the service lifecycle to identify and prevent individual engagement in or sympathy for DVE organizations: screening during the recruitment process; training and managing currently serving personnel; and screening, educating, and resourcing individuals transitioning out of service. Efforts to identify and address DVE are approached differently in the Department of Defense (DoD) and the law enforcement community. For military service members, a centralized, top-down structure with formal policies, practices, and programs provides guidance from the DoD, the military departments, and the military services across all three phases of the service lifecycle. By contrast, the law enforcement community operates across a patchwork of decentralized federal, state, county, and local hierarchies, resulting in wide variation between policies and practices across approximately 18,000 local police agencies. Even though the DoD has a formal structure to address DVE, the department still faces challenges similar to those of the law enforcement community in managing participation in DVE organizations and activities by current and former service members. While recent efforts to update policies regarding the screening, management, and transition of service members are necessary, they are not sufficient to prevent the appeal of DVE. Similarly, the absence of a cohesive structure connecting law enforcement agencies prevents opportunities to develop and implement formal mechanisms to address the challenge. Members of the military and law enforcement communities (both those currently serving and veterans) play a unique role in the American social contract. In exchange for authorities to use force in the name of the state for the protection of society, members of these professions are expected to uphold a stricter moral standard than their civilian counterparts. Moreover, members of the profession are expected to regulate entry into their ranks and enforce norms of acceptable behavior through individual and communal allegiance to a code of ethics. While externally imposed laws and policies can define the boundaries of acceptable behavior within the profession, internal enforcement of a shared professional ethos is more likely to intrinsically motivate behavior that aligns with the high standards of the profession. The DoD, the military services, and law enforcement organizations would benefit from thoughtful and consistent updates to social media screening processes. Law enforcement organizations should follow best practices to include counter-DVE training within existing training modules on related topics. Beyond updates to policy, real opportunities exist for engaging in communicating, modeling, and enforcing the professional ethic internally across the lifecycle of service. Increased formal education and training of the professional ethic by respected leaders within these communities may be more impactful than externally required “box checking” activities. Membership organizations, including police-, military-, and veteran-serving organizations, can provide consistent, standardized professional development and a sense of community and purpose for those currently serving, and can also reach transitioning and veteran members of the military and law enforcement communities who may be disconnected from support.
- Topic:
- Law Enforcement, Violent Extremism, Veterans, Countering Violent Extremism, and Military
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
8703. No I in Team: Integrated Deterrence with Allies and Partners
- Author:
- Stacie L. Pettyjohn and Becca Wasser
- Publication Date:
- 12-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Center for a New American Security (CNAS)
- Abstract:
- The United States faces a strategic landscape unlike anything it has encountered in its recent history. It faces a rising great power in China, a diminished but still dangerous Russian military threat, and myriad “lesser threats” in the form of Iran, North Korea, and violent extremist organizations. Moving forward, the United States will need to deter aggression by two nuclear armed great-power adversaries while also keeping other threats at bay to protect the U.S. homeland and its global interests. But Washington finds itself in a precarious position where it may not have sufficient capacity, capability, nor readiness to contend with multiple advanced threats and crises. The Pentagon, therefore, needs allies and partners to help it deter Chinese and Russian aggression and manage the lesser but persistent threats that could grow if ignored. To overcome these challenges, the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) has advanced the concept of integrated deterrence in the 2022 National Defense Strategy (NDS). Integrated deterrence seeks to integrate all tools of national power across domains, geography, and spectrum of conflict, while working with allies and partners. But what integrated deterrence entails in practical terms remains unclear, particularly to the very allies and partners Washington wants more from. This ambiguity raises the risk that integrated deterrence may find itself dead on arrival—and along with it, the ally and partner line of effort in the NDS. This risk is particularly high since the unclassified version of the NDS, which is the only one that is available to most allies and partners, was long delayed and finally released in late October 2022. To enable the DoD’s NDS implementation efforts and turn integrated deterrence from rhetoric to reality, the authors developed a framework to help the department think about and implement its strategy of integrated deterrence with allies and partners. This framework highlights three levels of integration between the United States and its allies and partners: tactical, institutional, and strategic.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, Alliance, and Deterrence
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus and United States of America
8704. CTC Sentinel: November/December 2022 Issue
- Author:
- Bruce Hoffman, Jacob Ware, Paul Cruickshank, Wassim Nasr, and Samira Gaid
- Publication Date:
- 12-2022
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- CTC Sentinel
- Institution:
- The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
- Abstract:
- In December 2007, the Combating Terrorism Center at West Point launched a new monthly publication with the aim of drawing on the “Center’s network of scholars and practitioners dedicated to the study of terrorism and counter-terrorism to provide the most well-informed forum” for the analysis of the most pressing security challenges facing the United States and its allies. This issue marks the 15th anniversary of CTC Sentinel. It has been my great privilege to serve as editor in chief for exactly half that period. We hope the publication has helped contribute to greater understanding of the complex and continuously evolving counterterrorism problem set. My predecessor, Erich Marquardt, deserves special credit for the years he spent building CTC Sentinel into a powerhouse of scholarly research. I’d like to also acknowledge the extraordinary contribution of our managing editor, Kristina Hummel, and the wise counsel of our editorial board members: Colonel Suzanne Nielsen, Brian Dodwell, Don Rassler, and Colonel Sean Morrow. The huge time and energy invested in CTC Sentinel by our leadership and faculty over the past 15 years has helped drive us forward in our mission of relentless improvement. Our choice of cover for this anniversary issue reflects our immense gratitude to our many contributors over the years whose insights and scholarship have been essential to the counterterrorism mission. In this month’s feature article, Bruce Hoffman (whose insights were featured in the inaugural issue of CTC Sentinel) and Jacob Ware examine the terrorist trends and threats to watch out for in 2023 and beyond. Our interview is with Harun Maruf, the longest-serving editor of VOA Somali, the Somali-language service of the U.S. government-funded broadcast service Voice of America. Samira Gaid argues that “recent military breakthroughs against al-Shabaab have provided Somalis with an historic opportunity to now do what is necessary to bring lasting security to the country” but that making enduring gains will require learning lessons from previous failures. Wassim Nasr outlines how the Wagner Group is aggravating the jihadi threat in Mali, creating the risk of further destabilization in the Sahel region.
- Topic:
- Counter-terrorism, Jihad, Al Shabaab, and Wagner Group
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Somalia, and Sahel
8705. Child Sexual Abuse in Botswana: An Evaluation of The Effectiveness of Child Protection Institutions in selected villages
- Author:
- Thabile A. Samboma
- Publication Date:
- 11-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Botswana Institute for Development Policy Analysis
- Abstract:
- Child Sexual Abuse (CSA) in Botswana is a big social problem with proven lifelong effects on the victims. Botswana has established various child protection institutions (CPI) and amended children’s protection laws to ensure that children are safe from all harm. However, despite this development, Botswana CSA cases are still rising. This study provides the first attempt to evaluate the effectiveness of child protection institutions in Botswana. A case study method was used in Old Naledi and Letlhakeng through an indepth interview with twenty-two (22) participants. The findings of the study revealed that there is;(i) the absence of a national child strategy, (ii) poor coordination of child protection institutions, (iii) weak child legislation framework, (iv) lack of capacity, (v) inadequately financed child protection, (vi) lack of systematic data collection, (vii) lack of evidence-based research, (viii) Decline of family structure and (iv) lack of public awareness. All these combined hinder the effectiveness of child protection institutions in Botswana. The study recommends as follows: reviewing the Children’s Act of 2009, developing a national child protection strategy, strengthening coordination of CPI, increasing resource allocation, creating a centralised database on CSA and strengthening evidence-based research on CSA in Botswana.
- Topic:
- Children, Institutions, Protection, and Child Sexual Abuse (CSA)
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Botswana
8706. Understanding the Firm-Level Export Diversification Characteristics in Botswana
- Author:
- Pinkie Gertrude Kebakile
- Publication Date:
- 01-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Botswana Institute for Development Policy Analysis
- Abstract:
- This Policy Brief unravels interesting insights pertaining to firm-level export diversification characteristics in Botswana, which is an approach that views export diversification at the micro-level. The following are the key highlights from the Policy Brief: • Exporters whose export portfolios are varied in terms of products and export markets, commonly referred to as multi-product multi-destination exporters in the literature fetch high export values, which is a prerequisite for sustained economic growth in the country. • The growth and diversification of Botswana’s export bundle is undermined by the exporters’ inability to break into new export markets. • The main policy message is therefore that to transition from the upper-middle income status to high-income status by 2036, the country needs to nurture and develop the multi-product multi-destination exporters. Targeted interventions aimed at developing these exporters are therefore called for.
- Topic:
- Business, Economic Growth, Diversification, Exports, and Trade
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Botswana
8707. Does GNH Determine Contextual QoL? A Case of Thimphu Urban
- Author:
- Gonpo Tenzin
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Journal of Bhutan Studies
- Institution:
- Centre for Bhutan & GNH Studies (CBS)
- Abstract:
- The empirical assessment of happiness or life satisfaction is emerging as a key research area across the world. Studies in this area, however, are pursued mostly by determining generalized Quality of Life (QoL) and fails to reflect contextual and place-based QoL. This study aims to fill this gap by examining how placed-based attributes could determine QoL by taking the case of Thimphu, the capital city of Bhutan. Subsuming the attributes of Gross National Happiness (GNH) the study determines QoL of Thimphu for the first time. The study applies empirical QoL model and employs both qualitative and quantitative approach, and it also considers wide range of literature reviews. The findings reveal that both GNH and most QoL cases are multidimensional in approach and bears high correlation between the attributes. There is inherent commonness and similar patterns between the two. Converging the findings from recent GNH survey 2015 and this QoL assessment, the analysis demonstrated that there is correlation close to R2 = 0.91 and the line of best fit at y=01236x+1.7333. The significance of the findings confirm that the QoL mechanism would be efficient, effective and realistic if it is place-based and contextual in approach, but not undermining dynamism in change around. The findings of the QoL assessment also recommends set of significant propositions to address the dispossession of QoL. The policy review, program alignment and innovative infrastructural integration in education, psychology and community vitality domains of QoL are underscored as main recommendations from the study.
- Topic:
- Quality of Life, Well-Being, Life Satisfaction, and Gross National Happiness (GNH)
- Political Geography:
- South Asia and Bhutan
8708. Determinants of Cottage and Small Industries Growth in Thimphu Thromde
- Author:
- Tashi Norbu, Tendri Gyeltshen, and Phuntsho Drukpa
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Journal of Bhutan Studies
- Institution:
- Centre for Bhutan & GNH Studies (CBS)
- Abstract:
- The main purpose of this study was to investigate the determinants of the growth of Cottage and Small Industry (CSI) under Thimphu Thromde. We adopted a cross-sectional study design where samples were drawn using proportionate stratified random sampling technique. The analysis is based on the 102 CSI owners who responded to the online survey. Descriptive analysis shows that CSI sector in Thimphu Thromde is growing both in terms of employment generation and capital accumulation. Furthermore, multiple linear regression (MLR) test indicates that management know-how, technology, support CSIs get, and marital status are statistically significant with capital growth while access to finance, government rules and regulations and firm age were statistically significant with employment growth.
- Topic:
- Employment, Economic Growth, Management, Capital, and Small Industries
- Political Geography:
- South Asia, Bhutan, and Thimphu Thromde
8709. Watching the Words: A Situational Analysis of Selfcensorship in Bhutanese Media
- Author:
- Sonam Wangdi
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Journal of Bhutan Studies
- Institution:
- Centre for Bhutan & GNH Studies (CBS)
- Abstract:
- Self-censorship in journalism is a global phenomenon. Against the rapidly changing media landscape, experts have posed selfcensorship as a severe threat to the future of journalism. Bhutan is no exception. There are no empirical studies conducted in the country on self-censorship in Bhutanese media. Therefore, the paper attempts to examine the perceptions and practices of self-censorship and its characteristics in the media society, especially after the country transitioned to a constitutional democratic monarchy. It also tries to understand the situation for policy interventions to empower the media in fostering a healthy democratic society. For the study, the paper views self-censorship as the act of journalists limiting or ignoring a story or parts of a story for various reasons and not limited to external threats or the fear of negative repercussions. Sixty-one journalists, including freelancers, were interviewed online during the study. Based on their accounts, there is a common consensus that selfcensorship is an issue in Bhutan. But it is not a result of an oppressive media environment as journalists generally enjoy professional freedom in covering various topics. Instead, it is exercised more like a coping mechanism to professional demands and consequences such as protecting sources and avoiding prosecutions. Moreover, journalists also self-censor as an ethically guided judgement. At the same time, the results suggest that agencies concerned could reduce the instances of self-censorship in the Bhutanese media fraternity through specific interventions.
- Topic:
- Democracy, Media, Constitution, Journalism, Monarchy, Censorship, and Freedom
- Political Geography:
- South Asia and Bhutan
8710. The Force of the Police: An Analysis of Police Violence Based on Experience in the United States and the Imperative to Restore Legitimacy
- Author:
- Robert Cornelli
- Publication Date:
- 12-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The International Center for Transitional Justice (ICTJ)
- Abstract:
- Egon Bittner, an early scholar of policing, noted that one of the peculiarities of the institution of the police is that it swings into action in response to “something that ought not to be happening and about which someone had better do something now.” The situations in which the police are called on to act are often emergencies, and it is at junctures such as these that, paradoxically, police officers sometimes take actions that ought not to happen. This is precisely what occurred in Minneapolis, Minnesota on May 25, 2020, when George Floyd, a 46-year-old Black man, was stopped by the police and subsequently killed by an officer who knelt on his neck for over nine minutes, ignoring his frequent pleas for help. The words he spoke as he suffocated under the officer’s knee—"I can’t breathe”—became an instant rallying cry for the protest movement that started in Minneapolis and quickly reverberated throughout the United States and the world. Floyd’s death reignited existing anger over American society’s deep and festering racial wounds. The litany of historical abuses in the United States is indeed long. His death also triggered significant social uprisings that have challenged the methods of policing that have emerged over the course of several decades. These uprisings have attributed greater responsibility to the police than in the past, for their perpetuation of stereotypes and discrimination. The time for an in-depth rethinking of the legitimacy of law enforcement bodies in the United States is ripe, and not only as a result of the new political approach ushered in by President Joe Biden and the greater awareness of police brutality triggered by demands of the Black Lives Matter movement.
- Topic:
- Law Enforcement, Reform, Criminal Justice, Memory, Institutions, Police, Truth, Violence Prevention, and Youth Engagement
- Political Geography:
- Colombia, South America, North America, Peru, Guatemala, and United States of America
8711. Truth, Reconciliation, and Redress for Racial Injustice in the United States: Insights from Experiences of Commissions Around the World
- Author:
- The International Center for Transitional Justice (ICTJ)
- Publication Date:
- 12-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The International Center for Transitional Justice (ICTJ)
- Abstract:
- The United States has never collectively confronted its history of colonialism, slavery, and racism in an effort to reform the systems that perpetuate harms to Black communities and other marginalized and oppressed groups, or to redress these wrongs. However, events over the past few years—including local, national, and global protests in response to the murders of members of Black communities—have amplified calls for meaningful action to reckon with the past and forge a more just and equitable future for the country. While the United States is not emerging from armed conflict or authoritarian rule, as may be the case for many countries that have undertaken a transitional justice process, it can learn from the experiences of these countries to confront its legacy of human rights violations. This report from ICTJ and the International Arbitration Group-Racial Justice Initiatives, a coalition of practitioners from multiple law firms, examines the experiences of official truth commissions from around the world to identify relevant considerations for US stakeholders at the local, state, and national levels. Truth seeking is integral to the investigation of past wrongs. It can help create a shared narrative about the past, determine factors that led to violations, and articulate proposals for further justice measures and broader transformation. All transitional justice processes should be formulated with direct input from members of the affected communities and take into account their experiences and concerns. In the United States, this means scrutinizing the causes and consequences of historical and structural injustices and assessing the need for systemic reform. The report therefore looks in particular to truth commissions that have dealt with a long history of injustices, racism, discrimination, and inequality. In addition, most existing truth-seeking initiatives in the United States have been at the state, city, or county level, a trend that is likely to continue in the near future. While this report draws primarily from the experiences of national commissions, these experiences are relevant for ongoing and future efforts in the United States at both subnational and national levels. In the United States, racial injustice is both historical and current as well as systemic and felt by individuals in their everyday lives. It is therefore crucial that truth-seeking efforts provide guidance on material and symbolic reparations and institutional and structural reforms, including those to law enforcement and the criminal justice system. Experience from other countries has demonstrated the vital role that civil society as well as victims and others affected by past violations can play. It also shows that wider society must be committed to the process. Truth seeking can help push open the window of opportunity for transformative change in the United States.
- Topic:
- Reform, Criminal Justice, Institutions, Reparations, Racism, and Truth and Reconciliation
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
8712. Horizontal inequalities and multi-sectarian societies: a study about the perception by Syrian refugees in Brazil of the socioeconomic situation and groups inequalities in Syria before the 2011 uprising
- Author:
- Danny Zahreddine
- Publication Date:
- 10-2022
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Conjuntura Austral: Journal of the Global South
- Institution:
- Conjuntura Austral: Journal of the Global South
- Abstract:
- After the beginning of the Arab Spring and the conflict in Syria, researchers worldwide are trying to understand the reasons that led to the civil war in that country. Many hypotheses are raised, from the deterioration of socioeconomic conditions, the increasingly harsh political and police repression against the regime's opponents, to the interest of regional powers in changing the Syrian regime. In this article, we decided to explore another dimension of conflict. After applying a questionnaire to a group of Syrian refugees in Brazil, we sought to understand the perception of respondents about the existence or not of horizontal inequality between the Syrian religious groups, in the economic, social, religious, political and cultural spheres. The result sheds light on the important role of the perception of horizontal inequality between groups as an essential source of discontent and frustration, which may have contributed to the breaking of the Syrian state's social-political pact.
- Topic:
- Refugees, Inequality, Syrian War, and Perception
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Brazil, South America, and Syria
8713. Unknown Knowns How the Bush Administration Traded Failure for Success in Iraq
- Author:
- David Cortright, George A. Lopez, and Alistair Millar
- Publication Date:
- 07-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Fourth Freedom Forum
- Abstract:
- This is the story of a road not taken, how the United States discarded a proven system of United Nations weapons inspections and multilateral sanctions and opted for an unnecessary war in Iraq. The saga of what happened twenty years ago may seem like ancient history to some, but many negative consequences are still evident. From the imposition of sanctions on Iraq in 1990 until the calamitous invasion in 2003, our research team produced a steady stream of reports and publications documenting the most significant policy failure by the United States since the Vietnam War.1 With the twentieth anniversary of the invasion approaching, it is time for a fresh look at those events to assess the strategic and ethical implications of the decisions made then and their relevance for today. George W. Bush was gripped by a messianic zeal to overthrow Saddam Hussein by force.2 The president and his advisers were determined to implement a policy of armed regime change regardless of all evidence, logic, or reason.3 The White House concocted a false narrative of weapons of mass destruction in the hands of a dictator with supposed links to al-Qaida.4 Bush ignored the unequivocal conclusion of the U.S. intelligence community that Iraq had nothing to do with either 9/11 or al-Qaida.5 The result of the administration’s campaign of deception was a costly war of choice that ended in “strategic defeat,” to cite the conclusion of the U.S. Army history of the war.6 Many studies have examined what went wrong in Iraq,7 but few have looked at the alternative security approaches that were available at the time. We examine those alternatives here to document that the war was unnecessary and to highlight the policy advantages of multilateral nonmilitary security strategies.
- Topic:
- Security, Military Strategy, Multilateralism, Iraq War, and George W. Bush
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Middle East, North America, and United States of America
8714. A Survey of Importers: Results of a Survey Conducted in Collaboration with the Ethiopian Economics Association
- Author:
- Ricardo Hausmann, Tim O'Brien, Tim Cheston, Nikita Taniparti, and Ibrahim Worku Hassen
- Publication Date:
- 11-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
- Abstract:
- Ethiopia suffers from a chronic shortage of foreign exchange (forex).[1] The resulting lack of access to imports prevents firms from accessing imported inputs required for production. This creates a vicious cycle as exporters are constrained by this same problem, which further reduces overall supply of foreign exchange in the Ethiopian economy. The inability to reliably access foreign exchange for imports affects firm decisions on sourcing, capacity, and output. While the cost of this constraint is known to be high on the Ethiopian economy and firms are known to use a range of measures to attempt to bypass this constraint, quantitative assessments of the problem and response actions by firms are limited. It is in this context that an importer survey was conducted with the goal of informing policy decisions. A total of 202 firms with an active importing license were interviewed in March-April 2022. These firms were randomly sampled from firms registered with an importer license. All firms interviewed reported that they were operating below capacity, often well below capacity. Foreign exchange shortages were the main reason respondent firms cited for not operating at full capacity (63% of firms reporting this as their biggest constraint). Forex shortages far surpass the second and third reasons cited for not operating at full capacity — constraints due to the conflict (13%) and COVID-19 restrictions (11%). Firms operating below capacity cited forex shortages as the main constraint, regardless of whether they imported or not in the previous year. This was the most pressing constraint reported by firms of all sizes and sectors surveyed. It was the most pressing constraint faced by exporters and by foreign-owned firms as well as non-exporters and domestic firms. Amongst the total sample of firms with a renewed importer license, more than one-third of respondent firms (37%) had not imported in FY2020-21. Overall, 74% of firms reported experiencing challenges in accessing forex. Access to forex was reported as most challenging for manufacturing firms and smaller firms but impacted all sectors and firm sizes. The losses attributed to forex scarcity at the firm level were largest for agricultural firms, for micro-firms, and for firms that did not import at all in the previous year. In general, the larger the firm sales, the higher the likelihood that they were able import. The survey found different types of imports for different sectors. Manufacturing firms imported a large share semi-finished goods as imports as compared to agricultural firms that primarily imported finished goods. The survey results find that foreign exchange shortages and an inability to import are most severe for the manufacturing and agriculture sectors, small and micro-sized firms, and all non-exporters. However, the constraint is also the top problem facing all firm types in the survey, including exporters and foreign-owned firms. The primary means of accessing foreign exchange where it did occur was through specialized forex accounts or ‘diaspora’ accounts. The second most common means of accessing foreign exchange was through retention accounts available to exporters. The black market featured in many responses, but questions across the survey suggest that self-reported use of the black market by survey participants is underreported versus actual usage. The ability to source foreign exchange differed significantly by firm size. Exporting firms primarily used retention account earnings, as compared to non-exporters, which relied more on forex accounts. For faster access to forex, most firms reported that they approach banks, followed by turning to the black market. Friends and family abroad also served as a source of forex for one-quarter of firm respondents, and that foreign exchange was often used immediately. Foreign exchange access from banks is nevertheless a major pain point for firms. Most firms (55%) requested forex from a bank in the past year. On average, fulfilled forex requests took three months to be processed when they were fulfilled, but many firms reported that they have an unfulfilled request that has been in the system for more than a year. These firms are especially likely to report foreign exchange access as their top challenge. The survey finds that individual firms do not tend to use both official and black-market foreign exchange sources but rather tend to access all their forex at the (lower) official rate or all at the (higher) black-market. Large firms import most of their products at the official rate. By contrast, most small and micro firms import through other means. Manufacturing firms are also more likely to import all their production through other means and outside of the banking system. Non-exporting firms tended to import through other means than the official rate and outside of the banking system at a higher prevalence than exporting firms. The survey gleaned new insights on the implicit exchange rate that firms face as they navigate official and black-market channels of foreign exchange access. The survey does not allow for a precise estimate of the transaction-weighted exchange rate facing the economy but finds firm-level estimates align with previous macro-level estimates. The implicit exchange rate was higher for non-exporting firms, which show a greater willingness to pay a higher exchange rate to access imports. This signals the importance of the retention account for exporters to guarantee an import price closer to the official exchange rate. When asked about the maximum rate firms would pay to guarantee access to forex, some groups of firms were willing to pay higher amounts, including all non-exporters, firms that imported in the past year, and those that declared forex access a challenge. When compared to the implied rate they paid in the past year, many firms are willing to pay more than the implied rate to guarantee access to forex. Firm perspectives on policy changes to the exchange rate underscored challenges faced by policymakers. Current policy has been one of a crawling peg, with changes within the last several years to increase the rate of devaluation. The survey asked respondents about their support for faster devaluation, for a one-off movement to unify the official rate with the black-market rate, or about alternative exchange rate systems such as a floating exchange rate. Most respondents (71%) opposed maintaining the current regime, yet no option received majority support. Most firms appear to want both a stronger exchange rate and easier access to foreign exchange despite a tradeoff between these two priorities. The largest share of support for policy change was to adjust the exchange rate such that the official rate matches the black-market rate.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, Imports, and Collaboration
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Ethiopia
8715. Development in a Complex World: The Case of Ethiopia: A Compendium of Project Research on Advancing Economic Diversification in Ethiopia
- Author:
- Ricardo Hausmann, Tim O'Brien, Tim Cheston, Ibrahim Worku Hassen, and Can Soylu
- Publication Date:
- 11-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
- Abstract:
- This research compendium provides an explanation of Ethiopia’s fundamental economic challenge of slowing economic growth after an exceptional growth acceleration — a challenge that has been compounded by COVID-19, conflict, and climate change impacts. Ethiopia has experienced exceptional growth since the early 2000s but began to see a slowdown in the capacity of the economy to grow, export, and produce jobs since roughly 2015. This intensified a set of macroeconomic challenges, including high, volatile, and escalating inflation. This compendium identifies a path forward for more sustainable and inclusive growth that builds on the government’s Homegrown Economic Reform strategy. It includes growth diagnostics and economic complexity research as well as applications to unpack interacting macroeconomic distortions and inform diversification strategies. Drawing on lessons from past success in Ethiopia and new constraints, this compendium offers insights into what the Government of Ethiopia and the international community must do to unlock resilient, post-conflict economic recovery across Ethiopia. The research across the chapters of this compendium was developed during the Growth Lab’s research project in Ethiopia from 2019 to 2022, supported through a grant by the United States Agency of International Development (USAID). This research effort, which was at times conducted in close collaboration with government and non-government researchers in Ethiopia, pushed the boundaries of Growth Lab research. The project team worked to understand to intensive shocks faced by the country and enable local capability building in the context of limited government resources in a very low-income country. Given the value of this learning, this compendium not only discusses challenges and opportunities in Ethiopia in significant detail but also describes how various tools of diagnostic work and economic strategy-building were used in practice. As such, it aims to serve as a teaching resource for how economic tools can be applied to unique development contexts. The compendium reveals lessons for Ethiopian policymakers regarding the country’s development path as well as numerous lessons that the development community and development practitioners can learn from Ethiopia.
- Topic:
- Development, Economic Growth, Diversification, and Structural Transformation
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Ethiopia
8716. Economic Costs of Friend-shoring
- Author:
- Beata Javorcik, Lucas Kitzmueller, Helena Schweiger, and Muhammad A. Yıldırım
- Publication Date:
- 09-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
- Abstract:
- Geo-political tensions and disruptions to global value chains have led policymakers to reevaluate their approach to globalisation. Many countries are considering regionalisation and friend-shoring – trading primarily with countries sharing similar values – as a way of minimising exposure to weaponisation of trade and securing access to critical inputs. If followed through, this process has the potential to reverse global economic integration of recent decades. This paper estimates the economic costs of friend-shoring using a quantitative model incorporating inter-country inter-industry linkages. The results suggest that friend-shoring may lead to real GDP losses of up to 4.6% of global GDP. Thus, although friend-shoring may provide insurance against extreme disruptions and increase the security of supply of vital inputs, it would come at a significant cost.
- Topic:
- Trade, Production, Regionalization, and Friend-shoring
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
8717. An Integrated Epidemiological and Economic Model of COVID-19 NPIs in Argentina
- Author:
- Adolfo Rubinstein, Eduardo Levy-Yeyati, Alejandro López Osornio, Federico Filippini, and Adrian Santoro
- Publication Date:
- 11-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
- Abstract:
- We added a multi-sectoral economic framework to a SVEIR epidemiological model, combining the economic rationale of the DAEDALUS model with a detailed treatment of lockdown fatigue and declining compliance with Public Health and Social Measures reported in recent empirical work, to quantify the epidemic and economic benefits and costs of alternative lockdown and PHSM policies, both in terms of intensity and length. Our calibration replicates key features of the case and death-curves and economic cost for Argentina in 2021. The model allows us to quantify the short-term policy trade-off between lives and livelihoods and show that it can be significantly improved with targeted pharmaceutical policies such as vaccine rollout to reduce mainly severe disease and the death toll from COVID-19, as has been highlighted by previous studies.
- Topic:
- Economics, COVID-19, and Epidemiology
- Political Geography:
- Argentina, South America, and Latin America
8718. Yet it Endures: The Persistence of Original Sin
- Author:
- Barry Eichengreen, Ricardo Hausmann, and Ugo Panizza
- Publication Date:
- 11-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
- Abstract:
- Notwithstanding announcements of progress, "international original sin" (the denomination of external debt in foreign currency) remains a persistent phenomenon in emerging markets. Although some middle-income countries have succeeded in developing markets in local-currency sovereign debt and attracting foreign investors, they continue to hedge their currency exposures through transactions with local pension funds and other resident investors. The result is to shift the locus of currency mismatches within emerging economies but not to eliminate them. Other countries have limited original sin by limiting external borrowing, passing up valuable investment opportunities in pursuit of stability. We document these trends, analyzing regional and global aggregates and national case studies. Our conclusion is that there remains a case for an international initiative to address currency risk in low- and middle-income economies so they can more fully exploit economic development opportunities.
- Topic:
- Markets, Economy, Investment, and Sovereign Debt
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
8719. Small States and Shelter Theory: Iceland’s External Affairs
- Author:
- Yeliz Kulali Martin
- Publication Date:
- 12-2022
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Uluslararasi Iliskiler
- Institution:
- International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
- Abstract:
- 2020’s international system, which according to John Mearsheimer “shifts from unipolarity to multipolarity,”1 is more welcoming for small states and small state studies. In this environment where the number of actors is growing, small states have a stronger voice through the alliances they make, the projects they create or the roles they play in international organisations. The book named “Small States and Shelter Theory: Iceland’s External Affairs”, analyses the current foreign policy decision-making processes of small states as system actors, with the purpose of adding a new theory to the International Relations (IR) discipline. Shelter theory, is presented as an alternative to the numerous IR theories explaining the behaviours of small states and this concept was initially introduced by the editor of the book, Baldur Thorhallsson, in 2010.2
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Book Review, Small states, Multipolarity, and Decision-Making
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Iceland
8720. Twilight of Democracy: The Seductive Lure of Authoritarianism
- Author:
- Jonathan Nash
- Publication Date:
- 12-2022
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Uluslararasi Iliskiler
- Institution:
- International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
- Abstract:
- In her book, Twilight of Democracy: The Seductive Lure of Authoritarianism, Anne Applebaum explores a political shift that many democracies face today. In her analysis of global democracies, Applebaum explains why authoritarianism is on the rise and how it is being welcomed by many. She argues that the world is becoming more authoritarian, and democracy is starting to slip, especially with the recent election of US President Donald Trump. Through her writing, Applebaum hopes to bring awareness to this phenomenon with the hope of recognizing it and resisting it. Anne Applebaum is a Pulitzer Prize winning journalist, who has worked for several magazines and newspapers. These include The Spectator, The Evening Standard, Slate, The Daily and Sunday Telegraph, The Economist, The Independent, The Washington Post, and currently The Atlantic. Her career provides her with great access to the top decision-making circles both in Europe and the United States during critical times, including the fall of the Berlin Wall, or the Brexit referendum and its aftermath.
- Topic:
- Authoritarianism, Democracy, Book Review, and Journalism
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Global Focus, and United States of America
8721. A Brief History of Equality
- Author:
- Melek Aylin Özoflu and Samet Yılmaz
- Publication Date:
- 12-2022
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Uluslararasi Iliskiler
- Institution:
- International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
- Abstract:
- Is neoliberalism in a deep crisis or not? If yes, what are the dynamics of this crisis? Does this crisis promise social, political, and economic transformations? If it does, what are the prerequisites? Will global levels of inequality continue to be dispersed? If one desperately searches for an answer to these questions, Thomas Piketty’s latest book, A Brief History of Equality, might offer a possible starting point. Piketty is known for his valuable r>g theory. He explains that return to capital exceeds the rate of economic growth, and it, in return, increases the concentration of wealth. This time, he does not put forward a new theoretical frame. Instead, building upon his r>g theory, he elaborates on his argument for the deepening of inequality in a multi-dimensional and multi-faceted way within a large time frame between 1780 and 2020. As for the primary source of data, he utilises the World Inequality Database (WID.world), which contains evidence about the distribution of income and wealth over the years. It provides the author with a multidisciplinary approach, while interpreting the progress in economic, political, and social developments.
- Topic:
- Inequality, Economic Growth, Neoliberalism, and Book Review
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
8722. Aid and Technological Cooperation as a Foreign Policy Tool for Emerging Donors: The Case of Brazil
- Author:
- Kamil Yılmaz
- Publication Date:
- 12-2022
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Uluslararasi Iliskiler
- Institution:
- International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
- Abstract:
- There is a high concern that development assistance can be seen as national interest from the donor’s perspective. The book dwells on the specific case of Brazil and tackles the question of how a country like Brazil seeks power and influence by providing no-strings-attached foreign technical assistance. In the book, there are also some similarities and differences among Southern emerging donors like China, India and South Africa, concerning their take on foreign assistance. The book, as Farrias puts it, is mainly about foreign policy motivations and development assistance. In the particular case of Brazil, author asks what the foreign policy logic behind the no-strings-attached development assistance is. While answering the question, she gets help from a theoretical perspective, which is a combination of realism and constructivism. According to Farrias, development partnership between developing countries is understudied; and she wants to clear this gap with a specific case study. According to her, most studies deal with money-based cooperation, but from a developing country’s perspective, knowledge sharing is common. Hence, technical cooperation is ought to be explored, Farrias claims. According to Farrias, technical cooperation is mostly on non-controversial topics. She advocates that despite the weakness of development assistance, it is one of the most common foreign policy tools for developing countries.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, International Cooperation, Science and Technology, Foreign Aid, Book Review, and Development Assistance
- Political Geography:
- China, India, South Africa, Brazil, and Global South
8723. Perceptions of Turkey in the US Congress: A Twitter Data Analysis
- Author:
- Hakan Mehmetcik, Melih Koluk, and Galip Yuksel
- Publication Date:
- 12-2022
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Uluslararasi Iliskiler
- Institution:
- International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
- Abstract:
- The way we interact with individuals, companies, and communities has been altered by our usage of online social media sites and services. Simultaneously, the use of social media as a data source for social scientific inquiries has increased substantially in recent years. This study uses Twitter data analysis to investigate the views of United States (US) Members of Congress on Turkey, and to see if these perceptions reflect some of the trends in US-Turkey relations. Our initial view is that the Twitter conversations among Members of Congress appropriately reveal changes in the course of perceptions vis-a-vis relations between the two countries. With that assumption in mind, we evaluated Twitter data from 2009 to 2021, and analyzed it using statistical methodologies, network analysis, computational text analysis, and topic modeling tools. The findings indicate that Twitter data is a useful proxy for evaluating the perception of Turkey among US Members of Congress.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Social Media, Twitter, and Congress
- Political Geography:
- Turkey, Middle East, North America, and United States of America
8724. Academic Trends in European Union Studies in Turkey within the Framework of Turkey-EU Relations
- Author:
- Sezgin Mercan, Kıvılcım Romya Bilgin, Hacer Soykan Adaoğlu, and Yelda Ongun
- Publication Date:
- 12-2022
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Uluslararasi Iliskiler
- Institution:
- International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
- Abstract:
- The relationship between academics and policymakers has a complex and multi-layered structure, and there are different views on how this relationship should be. While discussing the political processes in the context of Turkey’s membership, the interactions between academics and policymakers in the relations between Turkey and the EU have the potential to provide solutions in the steps that need to be taken. However, the academic tendency of EU studies in Turkey will be revealed by answering questions such as what subjects are preferred by academics working on the EU in Turkey to study in the knowledge-production process, which subjects they prioritize in EU studies, what the effects of the ups and downs in Turkey-EU relations are on the academy, and how the academy positions itself in the field of EU studies. It is considered that such a study will contribute to further studies on how the academy’s relations with policymakers are and how they should be in studying Turkey-EU relations
- Topic:
- Bilateral Relations, European Union, Academia, Knowledge Production, and Policymaking
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Turkey, and Middle East
8725. On the Controversial Illegality of the Unilateral Use of Force for the Prevention of Genocide: The ‘Doubtfulness’ Clause Adopted by the ICJ in the Case Filed by Ukraine Against Russia
- Author:
- Fethullah Bayraktar
- Publication Date:
- 12-2022
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Uluslararasi Iliskiler
- Institution:
- International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
- Abstract:
- The ICJ in its order dated 16 March 2022, decided that the legality of the unilateral use of force to prevent acts of genocide is ‘doubtful’. Based on this order, it is possible to say that the ICJ provides a yellow light to unilateral use of force for the prevention of acts of genocide. But the ICJ expressed its opinion in this respect in 2007, underlining that every state may only act within the limits permitted by international law. The doctrine underscored that the unilateral use of force for the prevention of genocide was forbidden. In this situation, the following question arises: is it really doubtful? To find the answer to this question, it is necessary to examine the legal basis and means for the prevention of genocide. In this article, the legality of the unilateral use of force for the obligation to prevent genocide has been comprehensively discussed.
- Topic:
- Genocide, Responsibility to Protect (R2P), International Court of Justice (ICJ), Russia-Ukraine War, and Aggression
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Ukraine
8726. Gezegensel Siyaset Manifestosunun Ardından Yeşil Teorinin Uluslararası İlişkilerdeki Konumu
- Author:
- Didem Buhari Gulmez and Ertan Güler
- Publication Date:
- 12-2022
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Uluslararasi Iliskiler
- Institution:
- International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
- Abstract:
- Bu makale, Uluslararası İlişkilerde Yeşil Teoriyi daha iyi konumlandırabilmek için Gezegensel Siyaset Manifestosu üzerine yapılan güncel tartışmalara ışık tutmaktadır. Özellikle, Yeşil Teorinin disiplindeki konumuna ilişkin çalışmalarda görülen “sorun çözen teorilere karşı eleştirel teoriler” ikiliğini aşmayı hedeflemektedir. Buna yönelik olarak, Yeşil Teoriyi Uluslararası İlişkilerin ana akım teorileriyle kıyaslamak yerine, Gezegensel Siyaset Manifestosu perspektifinden Yeşil Teorinin İnşacılık, Normatif Teori, Postyapısalcılık, Eleştirel Teori, Postkolonyalizm ve Feminizm gibi başlıca eleştirel teorilerle arasındaki karmaşık ilişkiye odaklanmaktadır.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Politics, Critical Theory, Green Theory, Ecocentrism, and Ecofeminism
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
8727. A Conceptual History: Historical Sociological Analysis of Unipolarity in Structural Realist Literature
- Author:
- Burcu Sari Karademir
- Publication Date:
- 12-2022
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Uluslararasi Iliskiler
- Institution:
- International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
- Abstract:
- Unipolarity has been taken for granted and remains unquestioned in the International Relations literature. This article provides the conceptual history of unipolarity by bringing an immanent critique. It shows the evolution of unipolarity literature in the absence of counterbalancing in four stages. It focuses on the use of history in structural realism and brings a historical sociological perspective to the literature to show how tempocentric theorizing impaired the understanding of unipolarity as a distinct structure. The article concludes by underlying the importance of noticing the cost of reification of concepts for theorizing and by highlighting that unipolarity is still understudied both theoretically and methodologically.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Unipolarity, Post-Cold War, Balance of Power, Hard Balancing, and Soft Balancing
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
8728. From Media-Party Linkages to Ownership Concentration Causes of Cross-National Variation in Media Outlets’ Economic Positioning
- Author:
- Erik Neimanns and Nils Blossey
- Publication Date:
- 11-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Max Planck Sciences Po Center on Coping with Instability in Market Societies (MaxPo)
- Abstract:
- A sizable literature on media bias suggests that media coverage is frequently biased towards certain political and economic positions. However, we know little about what drives variation in political and ideological bias in news coverage across countries. In this paper, we argue that increasingly commercialized and concentrated media markets are likely to be associated with media coverage leaning more favorably towards economically more rightwing positions. Media bias should reflect the preferences of media owners and should be a result of a reduced diversity of news media content. In contrast, where media outlets continue to be oriented more closely along partisan lines, often referred to as political parallelism, bias on economic issues should be more likely to cancel out at the aggregate level. To test these claims, we combine expert survey data on partisan attachments of media outlets, party ideologies, and media ownership concentration for twenty-four European countries. Results from multilevel regression models support our theoretical expectations. With media framing potentially affecting individual-level preferences and perceptions, high and rising levels of media ownership concentration may help to explain why governments in the affluent Western democracies often do remarkably little to counter trends of rising income inequality.
- Topic:
- Politics, Media, News Analysis, and Bias
- Political Geography:
- Europe
8729. Operationalizing Growth Models
- Author:
- Lucio Baccaro and Sinisa Hadziabdic
- Publication Date:
- 10-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Max Planck Sciences Po Center on Coping with Instability in Market Societies (MaxPo)
- Abstract:
- We present a new methodology for operationalizing growth models based on importadjusted demand components. Applying the methodology to the latest release of OECD Input-Output Tables, we calculate the growth contributions of consumption, investment, government expenditures, and exports for sixty-six countries in the periods 1995 to 2007 and 2009 to 2018 and identify the respective growth models. We find that most countries are export-led or domestic demand-led and that other forms of growth are rare. Our results corroborate previous classifications in comparative political economy but also differ from them in significant respects. Importantly, our classification improves on previous ones by covering not just the advanced capitalist economies but also Central and Eastern European and South-East Asian and Latin American countries. In a further step, we illustrate how the new indicators can be used to analyze the “drivers” of different types of growth. This examination reveals that there is a clear trade-off between consumption- and export-led growth in advanced Western economies in the period 1995 to 2007 and a dependence of export-led growth in these countries on real exchange rate devaluation in the same period, while export complexity is not a significant predictor of export-led growth.
- Topic:
- Political Economy, Economy, Economic Growth, Exports, and Emerging Economies
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Latin America, and Southeast Asia
8730. Signaling Virtue or Vulnerability? The Changing Impact of Exchange Rate Regimes on Government Bond Yields
- Author:
- Zsófia Barta, Lucio Baccaro, and Alison Johnston
- Publication Date:
- 09-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Max Planck Sciences Po Center on Coping with Instability in Market Societies (MaxPo)
- Abstract:
- Do exchange rate regimes affect the conditions under which developed countries borrow? This paper argues that they do, but their impact on yields depends on the prevailing macroeconomic context. When investors regard inflation as the most relevant risk to bond holdings, monetary union has a distinct advantage over floating and fixed exchange rates because of its credible in-built mechanism to control inflation. However, once default is seen as the most relevant risk, exchange rate rigidity becomes a liability due to its constraining effect on governments’ ability to respond to adverse shocks. We test our argument with a moving window panel analysis for twenty-three OECD countries from 1980 to 2017. We find that before the late 2000s, inflation was penalized under floating and (to a lesser extent) fixed exchange rate regimes, but not in countries in monetary union. Since the 2010s, inflation carries no penalty under any exchange rate regime. Variables linked to default risk (debt and entitlement spending) did not affect yields under any exchange rate arrangements until the mid-2000s. Afterwards, countries in monetary union (and to a lesser extent in fixed exchange rate regimes) were significantly penalized for public debt and entitlement spending, whereas countries with floating regimes were not. Our results speak to the literatures on governments’ institutional commitments and “room to move.”
- Topic:
- International Political Economy, Financial Markets, Bonds, Exchange Rates, and Euro
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
8731. Private Insurance, Public Welfare, and Financial Markets: Alpine and Maritime Countries in Comparative-Historical Perspective
- Author:
- Arjen van der Heide and Sebastian Kohl
- Publication Date:
- 09-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Max Planck Sciences Po Center on Coping with Instability in Market Societies (MaxPo)
- Abstract:
- Contemporary capitalist societies use different institutions to manage economic risks. While different public welfare state and financial institutions (banks, capital markets) have been studied across coordinated and liberal market economies, this paper adds the private insurance sector to the study of countries’ security arrangements, following up on Michel Albert’s classical distinction between Alpine and Maritime insurance cultures. Building on extensive new insurance data collections (1880–2017) and institutional analysis, this paper corroborates the long-run historical existence of two worlds of private insurance. Maritime countries (USA, GBR, CAN) developed much bigger life and non-life insurance earlier, with no state-associated insurance enterprises and riskier investments steered towards financial markets. Alpine insurance (AUT, DEU, CHE), by contrast, was initially smaller, with strong state involvement, a significant reinsurance tradition and relatively heavy investments in mortgages and property, due to economic and financial backwardness. We argue that the larger and more “Maritime” the insurance sector, the more it made welfare states liberal and securities markets large. Insurance is thus a hidden factor for countries’ varieties of capitalism and world of welfare. The recent convergence on the Maritime model, however, implies that the riskier and risk-individualizing type of private insurance has added to privatization and securitization trends everywhere.
- Topic:
- History, Capitalism, Welfare, Insurance, and Financial Development
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
8732. The Rise and Fall of Social Housing? Housing Decommodification in Long-Run Perspective
- Author:
- Konstantin A. Kholodilin, Sebastian Kohl, and Sarah Hellmüller
- Publication Date:
- 08-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Max Planck Sciences Po Center on Coping with Instability in Market Societies (MaxPo)
- Abstract:
- The comparative study of housing decommodification lags behind classical welfare state research, while housing research itself is rich in homeownership studies but lacks comparative accounts of private and social rentals due to missing comparative data. Building on existing works and various primary sources, this study presents a new collection of up to forty-eight countries’ social housing shares in stock and new construction since the first housing laws around 1900. The interpolated benchmark time series generally describe the rise and fall of social housing across a residual, a socialist, and a Northern-European housing group. The decline was steeper than for the classical welfare state, but the degree of erosion was surprisingly small in some countries where public housing associations remained resilient. Within the broader housing welfare state, social housing correlates positively with rent regulation and allowances, but negatively with homeownership subsidies and liberal mortgage regulation. A multivariate analysis shows that social housing is rather explained by housing shortages and complementarities with rental and welfare policies than by typical welfare state theories (GDP, political parties). Generally, the paper shows that conventional housing typologies are difficult to defend over time and argues more generally for including housing decommodification in welfare state research.
- Topic:
- Public Policy, Housing, and Welfare State
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Global Focus
8733. No Strings Attached: Corporate Welfare, State Intervention, and the Issue of Conditionality
- Author:
- Fabio Bulfone, Timur Ergen, and Manolis Kalaitzake
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Max Planck Sciences Po Center on Coping with Instability in Market Societies (MaxPo)
- Abstract:
- This paper contributes to Comparative Political Economy (CPE), developing an analytical concept of corporate welfare. Corporate welfare — the transfer of public funds and benefits to corporate actors with weak or no conditionality — is a prominent form of state-business relations that CPE scholarship regularly overlooks and misinterprets. Such transfers should be understood as a structural privilege of business in a globalized post-Fordist capitalism, and an increasingly common strategy through which states attempt to steward national economic dynamism within a highly constrained range of policy options. However, without a well-developed concept of corporate welfare – premised upon the key criterion of conditionality – studies that identify a “return” of the state in industrial planning misrepresent these transfers to business as a reassertion of state influence and control, rather than a reflection of state weakness and subordination. The paper provides the analytical building blocks to properly conceptualize transfers to business, works out the core challenges for empirical research, and provides empirical illustrations of this burgeoning phenomenon from the fields of unconventional monetary policy, privatization, and urban political economy.
- Topic:
- Industrial Policy, Political Economy, Privatization, Monetary Policy, and Subsidies
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
8734. The Instability of Preferences: Uncertain Futures and the Incommensurable and Intersubjective Nature of Value(s)
- Author:
- Richard Bronk and Jens Beckert
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Max Planck Sciences Po Center on Coping with Instability in Market Societies (MaxPo)
- Abstract:
- The default assumption of standard economics is to treat preferences as exogenously ‘given’, consistent with one another, ‘revealed’ by past choices, and context independent. There has been increased interest recently (within behavioural economics) in the impact of inconsistent or irrational preferences and (more broadly) in dynamic and endogenous preferences. This paper builds on these challenges to standard assumptions by analysing the pivotal role of three aspects of preference formation in explaining capitalist dynamics and market instability. These are the constant creation of new preferences and the indeterminacy of choice sets in the context of widespread product innovation; the moral indeterminacy implied by conflicting and incommensurable social norms attaching to market goods where there is no single scale of value and hence no unique set of rational trade-offs; and, lastly, the contingent social and market construction of the product differentiation, quality attribution, and value assessments central to preference formation. The paper concludes by considering implications for economics as a discipline.
- Topic:
- Economics, Values, Endogenous Factors, and Preference Formation
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
8735. Factsheet: Karl Nehammer
- Author:
- Karl Nehammer
- Publication Date:
- 02-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Bridge Initiative, Georgetown University
- Abstract:
- Karl Nehammer is the current Chancellor of Austria. Three days prior to being sworn in as Chancellor on December 6, 2021, he became the managing chairman of the Austrian People’s Party (ÖVP). Previously, he served as the Minister of the Interior from 2020 to 2021, General Secretary of the ÖVP from 2018 to 2020, and a member of the National Council from 2017 to 2020. He has been a key figure in supporting anti-Muslim policies.
- Topic:
- Politics, Domestic Politics, Islamophobia, Muslims, and Karl Nehammer
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Austria
8736. Factsheet: Susanne Raab
- Author:
- Bridge Initiative Team
- Publication Date:
- 10-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Bridge Initiative, Georgetown University
- Abstract:
- Susanne Raab is the current Minister of Women and Integration of Austria. She joined the government of Sebastian Kurz of the Austrian People’s Party, which was responsible for many anti-Muslim legislations that have meanwhile been rescinded by various courts. Raab has been a key figure in supporting anti-Muslim policies in Austria.
- Topic:
- Domestic Politics, Islamophobia, Muslims, and Susanne Raab
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Austria
8737. Factsheet: Ednan Aslan
- Author:
- Bridge Initiative Team
- Publication Date:
- 11-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Bridge Initiative, Georgetown University
- Abstract:
- Ednan Aslan is a Turkish-German Professor of Islamic Religious Education at the University of Vienna in Austria. Aslan is frequently interviewed by mainstream media as an expert on Islam and a critical voice on Muslims. He has been a vocal supporter of the Austrian Chancellor Sebastian Kurz’s anti-Muslim policies, and also served in the Documentation Center Political Islam, a federally funded center that monitors, surveils, and maps Muslims in Austria.
- Topic:
- Surveillance, Islamophobia, Political Islam, and Ednan Aslan
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Austria
8738. Except for Palestine: The Limits of Progressive Politics
- Author:
- Mark Lamont Hill and Mitchell Plitnick
- Publication Date:
- 04-2021
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- Center for Security, Race and Rights (CSRR), Rutgers University School of Law
- Abstract:
- A book talk on Except for Palestine: The Limits of Progressive Politics.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Politics, and Progressivism
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Palestine, and United States of America
8739. Sustainable carbon removal
- Author:
- David R. Morrow and Simon Nicholson
- Publication Date:
- 10-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Institute for Carbon Removal Law and Policy, American University
- Abstract:
- Carbon removal, which involves capturing carbon dioxide (CO2) from the atmosphere and sequestering it, can help us meet the goals of the Paris Agreement. The key question is not just how to make large-scale carbon removal operational, but how to make it sustainable. Sustainable practices balance environmental, social, and economic goals. Sustainable carbon removal balances those goals in order to meet the needs of the future without compromising the ability of current generations to meet their own needs. To operationalize this idea, we need to ask two questions: How should we measure the environmental, social, and economic impacts of carbon? How should we decide when carbon removal strikes the right balance between future and present needs? Analyzing carbon removal at different levels can illuminate environmental, social, and economic risks and opportunities. Levels of analysis range from broad technological categories, like reforestation, to specific projects, like Climeworks’ Orca direct air capture project in Iceland. Most analyses have focused on broad technological categories, but more fine-grained analyses are crucial for delivering actionable advice. Finding metrics for environmental, social, and economic impacts is vital for quantifying positive and negative impacts and comparing approaches. One possibility is to use the indicators for the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals, which are politically negotiated, internationally accepted metrics of environmental, social, and economic sustainability. Determining which approaches are most sustainable requires balancing different positive and negative impacts that may not be easily comparable. There are several ways to do this, ranging from intuitive judgments to multicriteria decision analysis, although any decisions about which approaches are most sustainable are ultimately political decisions. In summary, to develop sustainable carbon removal, we need to identify sustainability metrics, such as the indicators behind the Sustainable Development Goals; apply those metrics at different levels of analysis; and develop strategies for determining which approaches strike the right balance between environmental, social, and economic goals.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Environment, Sustainable Development Goals, and Carbon Emissions
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
8740. The ICC and Palestine: Breakthrough and End of the Road?
- Author:
- Pearce Clancy and Richard Falk
- Publication Date:
- 09-2021
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Journal of Palestine Studies
- Institution:
- Institute for Palestine Studies
- Abstract:
- The recent ruling of the International Criminal Court (ICC) affirming territorial jurisdiction over the West Bank, including East Jerusalem, and the Gaza Strip may at first appear to be a mere procedural decision outlining the court’s authority to investigate Israeli criminality. Upon closer scrutiny, however, it is clearly much more: an indirect, yet far-reaching vindication of Palestinian resistance and struggle in the ongoing “legitimacy war” with Israel. These legal proceedings have momentous potential implications for broader accountability efforts, which could be significant over time, even if attempts to prosecute Israeli perpetrators are ultimately frustrated. This legal event already sheds light on both the limitations of the court and the legal and geopolitical challenges it faces in cases where suspected perpetrators wield significant influence in international political arenas. As of now, the ICC has gained credibility precisely because it has the institutional courage to take on the architects of Israeli criminality.
- Topic:
- Human Rights, International Law, Geopolitics, Accountability, International Criminal Court (ICC), and Oslo Accords
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, and Palestine
8741. Palestinian Refugees of the Oslo Generation: Thinking beyond the Nation?
- Author:
- Sophie Richter-Devroe
- Publication Date:
- 09-2021
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Journal of Palestine Studies
- Institution:
- Institute for Palestine Studies
- Abstract:
- This article analyzes the political narratives and critiques of young Palestinian refugees who have grown up in the bleak post-Oslo period. Based on ethnographic fieldwork and interviews conducted with refugee youth in Jordan and the West Bank between 2009 and 2014, I show that this generation of refugees endorses a collective Palestinian identity and peoplehood with claims to the (home)land while also narrating their identities and relations to land, nation, state, and rights as complex, multifaceted, and fractured. Their political imaginaries do not limit the political and epistemic project of decolonizing Palestine to the classic paradigm of a territorialized nation-state as enshrined in the Oslo two-state agenda. Rather, they point to a creative and radical, post-nation-statist, translocal politics for Palestine.
- Topic:
- Sovereignty, Refugees, Decolonization, Nation-State, Territory, Oslo Accords, Generation, and Translocality
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Palestine, Jordan, and West Bank
8742. The Journal of Palestine Studies in the Twenty-First Century: An Editor’s Reflections
- Author:
- Rashid Khalidi
- Publication Date:
- 09-2021
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Journal of Palestine Studies
- Institution:
- Institute for Palestine Studies
- Abstract:
- The Journal of Palestine Studies is celebrating fifty years of uninterrupted publication as the journal of record on Palestinian affairs since its founding in 1971. Historian, book author, and Columbia University’s Edward Said Chair of Middle East Studies, Rashid Khalidi, has been at the helm as editor for almost two decades. In this article, he reflects on the Journal’s role in knowledge production on Palestine from a number of vantage points: the situation that obtained at the Journal’s founding when Palestinians simply did not have “permission to narrate” their own story in the Western public sphere; the evolution of the academic universe in the United States and its eventual embrace of disciplines, such as race, gender, Indigenous, and Palestine studies, once considered marginal or fringe; and the concomitant and virulent Zionist campaign to tar speech critical of Israel and the Zionist project with the brush of anti-Semitism, whether in the media, politics, or academia.
- Topic:
- BDS, Academia, Progressivism, Publishing, and Knowledge Production
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Palestine, and United States of America
8743. The Anthropological Rise of Palestine
- Author:
- Sa'ed Atshan
- Publication Date:
- 12-2021
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Journal of Palestine Studies
- Institution:
- Institute for Palestine Studies
- Abstract:
- This article traces the rise of anthropological scholarship on Palestine and/ or Palestinians from 2011 through the present, providing readers with a comprehensive bibliography of anthropological publications related to Palestine over that period. Drawing upon the author’s experience as a scholar of Palestine and a publicly engaged anthropologist, it accounts for the factors fueling the proliferation of this domain of knowledge production and the implications this has for representations of individual and collective Palestinian human conditions. The article argues that contemporary anthropological research and writing provide Palestinians with intellectual tools for discursive enfranchisement. Such anthropological engagement also makes possible global solidarity wherein Palestinians are recognized as epistemic equals, rendering legible the heterogeneity and complexities of Palestinian lived experiences.
- Topic:
- Research, Solidarity, Anthropology, Ethnography, Academia, Epistemology, and Palestinians
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Palestine
8744. National Identity in the Guest Room: The Palestinian “Duyuf”
- Author:
- Alessandra Gola
- Publication Date:
- 12-2021
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Journal of Palestine Studies
- Institution:
- Institute for Palestine Studies
- Abstract:
- This article explores the manifold dimensions of Palestinian contemporary identity through the lens of the ghurfat al-duyuf (traditional guests’ room) and its design. It argues that against a backdrop of a decades-long military occupation, this domestic space devoted to social functions is the terrain where families spontaneously express the core features of their identity and their participation in Palestinian nationhood through the layout of meaningful objects. It further contends that the narratives that emerged from the ghurfat al-duyuf over a ten-year observation period necessitate the reframing of Palestinian identity as a nuanced complex of diversities. Using a combination of architectural and ethnographic methods, the article seeks to provide an alternative approach to the subject matter, based on empirical observation of small-scale, everyday realities and common practices in the guests’ room.
- Topic:
- Culture, Identity, Nationhood, and Duyuf
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Palestine
8745. The PLO and Communist Albania: Cold War Relations
- Author:
- Klejd Këlliçi
- Publication Date:
- 12-2021
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Journal of Palestine Studies
- Institution:
- Institute for Palestine Studies
- Abstract:
- This article examines Communist Albania’s support for the Palestinian cause and the relationships Tirana cultivated with the various groups comprising the Palestinian national movement. It explores the latter’s motivation for cultivating relations with Albania, a tiny Communist country that refused the logic of the bipolar world, both in its alliance with China and, later, through its disengagement from the East-West conflict and retreat into self-imposed isolationism. The article shows that, following Albania’s break with the Soviet bloc in the 1970s, the Palestine Liberation Organization, and specifically Fatah, was a more natural and logical choice for Tirana’s support than other, more self-avowedly left-wing Palestinian organizations. This study is based on primary sources from the archives of the Albanian foreign affairs ministry and the Party of Labour of Albania, as well as secondary sources such as accounts by members of the Albanian military who trained Fatah guerrilla fighters.
- Topic:
- Cold War, Communism, History, and PLO
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Palestine, Albania, and Baltic States
8746. Self-Determination and Sea-Level Rise
- Author:
- Barbara Buckinx, Matthew Edbrooke, and Rana Ibrahem
- Publication Date:
- 04-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Liechtenstein Institute on Self-Determination, Princeton University
- Abstract:
- This report summarizes a workshop held jointly by the Liechtenstein Institute on Self-Determination at Princeton University (LISD) and the Liechtenstein Mission to the United Nations, New York, between September and December 2020. The workshop and this report are products of LISD’s Project on Self-Determination, Environment, and Migration. Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the workshop was divided into four seminars, taking place via video teleconference and under the Chatham House Rule.
- Topic:
- Environment, Migration, Self Determination, Pandemic, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
8747. Climate, State, and Sovereignty: Self-Determination and Sea Level Rise
- Author:
- Christina Hioureas and Alejandra Torres Camprubi
- Publication Date:
- 06-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Liechtenstein Institute on Self-Determination, Princeton University
- Abstract:
- Climate change and sea-level rise are existential threats to low-lying island States, which face the looming submergence of their territory and the correlative depopulation and severe restrictions on their governmental capacity, at a national and international levels. Four States are particularly endangered because they are exclusively (or almost exclusively) composed of coral islands and atolls below 10 or even five meters of altitude. They are Tuvalu, Kiribati, the Marshall Islands in the Pacific Ocean, and the Maldives in the Indian Ocean. In its Fifth Assessment Report, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change foresaw an average rise of sea level of 98 cm by 2100. This prospect, often regarded as conservative, in fact represents a possible death sentence for these States. As a result, low-lying island States are considering and deploying legal and physical strategies to protect their continuity as States, sparking new debates on the potential evolution of the law on Statehood and the international law of the sea.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Environment, Sovereignty, Governance, and Self Determination
- Political Geography:
- Asia, Marshall Islands, Tuvalu, and Maldives
8748. Gender, Law, and Security: Selected Student Research from the Project on Gender and the Global Community, 2019-2020
- Author:
- Barbara Buckinx, Beth English, Jake Gutman, Seoyoung Hong, Mikaylah Ladue, Katrin Lewis, and Liza Paudel
- Publication Date:
- 11-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Liechtenstein Institute on Self-Determination, Princeton University
- Abstract:
- Who is the ‘self’ in self-determination? Feminist scholars and activists have long noted that, when self-determination means primarily non-interference in the internal affairs of a governing body, practices and traditions through which men dominate women can flourish. In order to fully realize the promise of the concept of self-determination, it is therefore best understood in both collective and individual forms. Women across the world have long sought to influence and shape the nature of their own lives, with a gendered understanding of power and how hierarchies of power are not only created and maintained, and perpetuate inequalities, but also how they can potentially be reorganized and remade. In this spirit, the research agenda and related activities of the Liechtenstein Institute on Self-Determination at Princeton University’s Project on Gender in the Global Community (GGC) uses gender as a primary lens for analysis and starting point for broader dialogues about sustainable development, state building, economic and political participation, negotiation and mediation, peace, and security. The GGC Student Fellows Program, inaugurated during the 2017-18 academic year, has been an integral complement to this work. Building on student interest in the GGC project and modeled on the successful student fellows program organized as part of LISD’s Project on Religion, Diplomacy and International Relations (PORDIR), a dedicated student cohort of Princeton students ranging from first-year undergraduates to Ph.D. candidates and postdocs, were selected through a competitive application process. Over the course of the 2019-20 fellowship year, GGC fellows pursued independent, academically rigorous research, a sampling of which is presented in this publication. In December 2019, they presented their projects alongside peers from Columbia University’s School of International and Public Affairs during a joint student research day. The papers in this volume include the written output of this independent work, which represents a variety of disciplines and methodologies and reflect the range of work undertaken by GGC students throughout the year.
- Topic:
- Governance, Law, Self Determination, Influence, and Gender
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
8749. Paving the way to the Security Council: NGOs’ activism on women’s and children’s issues
- Author:
- Yamya Rocha Rebelo
- Publication Date:
- 12-2021
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional (RBPI)
- Institution:
- Instituto Brasileiro de Relações Internacionais (IBRI)
- Abstract:
- The relationship between the United Nations Security Council and Non- Governmental Organizations has scarcely been considered in scholarship on international security. This lack of academic interest contrasts with accounts on the engagement of NGOs in the production and advancement of UNSC discussions on women and children. By drawing on international relations and social movements’ theoretical contributions, the paper traces NGOs’ strategies to participate in UNSC thematic debates. By looking at the actions of the Watchlist on Children and Armed Conflict and the NGO Working Group on Women, Peace, and Security, the analysis finds that NGOs have built coalitions among themselves and maintained networks with friendly countries and UN specialized agencies to capitalize on favorable political and institutional opportunities and expand the access to the security sector.
- Topic:
- Security, Gender Issues, United Nations, Children, Women, and NGOs
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
8750. Corporate influence and the global pandemic – reflections from the mining sector
- Author:
- Bonnie Campbell
- Publication Date:
- 11-2021
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional (RBPI)
- Institution:
- Instituto Brasileiro de Relações Internacionais (IBRI)
- Abstract:
- Power asymmetries offer a lens for understanding the reshaping of corporate strategies in the mining sector during the pandemic. Using a heterodox international political economy perspective, the first section of the article argues that regulatory frameworks are both the expression of structural power relations and a key instrument contributing to their reproduction. The second illustrates this by focusing on companies’ attempts to renegotiate fiscal concessions and keep mines open during the pandemic. The third examines how corporate actors have become directly involved in the delivery of health services and longer-term implications of such involvement. The conclusion identifies further research areas.
- Topic:
- Natural Resources, Mining, Corporations, and Influence
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus