Zimbabwe

Politics:

• Analysis

  Zimbabwe politics: Quick View - Voters approve new constitution

  Event

  Zimbabwean voters have overwhelmingly approved a new constitution.

  Analysis

  According to results released on March 19th, nearly 95% of voters supported the new constitution, with 3.08m people voting for it and only 179,500 against. However, the overwhelming majority, and reports by the US embassy in Harare and the Southern African Development Community (SADC) that the vote was fair, mean relatively little given that all of the three main political parties-Robert Mugabe's Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF) and the two wings of the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC)-campaigned for a "yes" vote. Much more significant have been the complaints of human rights abuses by the police, the arrest of the country's top civil rights lawyer along with senior members in the office of the MDC leader, Morgan Tsvangirai. This does not augur well for the conduct of national elections later this year, for which the adoption of the new constitution has opened the way. The date of the polls is still unknown. Government sources insist that the polls will be held as early as end-June, but those engaged in organising the elections say that it will take longer, and that a vote before September is unlikely.

  The new constitution is seen as a modest improvement on the existing one, in particular because it imposes term limits for the presidency. The next president will be allowed a maximum of two five-year terms in office. However, this will not apply retrospectively, meaning that Mr Mugabe, the 89-year-old who has governed the country as prime minister or president since independence in 1980, will in theory be able to remain in power for another decade.

  MDC supporters are not sure how to interpret the result: although the party is strongly in favour of the new constitution, it is disconcerted by the level of support in some rural areas that traditionally support Mr Mugabe. Meanwhile, in some MDC areas-notably Matabeleland-the turnout was low. ZANU-PF analysts have been quick to claim that if this pattern of voting were to be repeated at the legislative elections, their party would win. The most recent opinion poll, conducted late last year, showed the two main parties neck-and-neck, with 32% expressing support for ZANU-PF, 31% for the MDC and one-third of the electorate undecided. Overall, it would be unwise to read too much into the referendum result, other than that it points to a high turnout in national polls, when there will be a fierce, and quite possibly violent, campaign.

  March 19, 2013

• Background

  Zimbabwe: Key figures

  Robert Mugabe

  Robert Mugabe led the Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF) in the resistance war of the 1970s. First as prime minister and then as president, he has retained the top job since independence in 1980. He has used the power of incumbency and the resources of the state to suppress all forms of opposition to his regime as the economy has collapsed. Despite ongoing concerns about his health and international condemnation, he remains a very skilful political operator who will be hard to remove from office.

  Joyce Mujuru

  Joyce Mujuru has been the senior of the two vice-presidents since 2005, although as a woman in a deeply patriarchal society her ability to contest the presidency has been limited. However, she is the wife of Solomon Mujuru, an influential retired army commander, and the Mujurus have built up a substantial power base. They will be key power brokers in any deal to succeed Mr Mugabe, and as such have been the subject of some barely veiled criticism by the president.

  Simba Makoni

  Simba Makoni, a former finance minister and a member of the ZANU-PF decision-making body, the politburo, was expelled from the party in February 2008 when he announced his intention to stand against Mr Mugabe in the March presidential election. Although he finished a distant third in the elections, his candidacy highlighted the divisions present in ZANU-PF over Mr Mugabe's rule and he could represent a compromise president between the opposition and ZANU-PF should Mr Mugabe be forced out of office.

  Morgan Tsvangirai

  Morgan Tsvangirai is the former secretary-general of the Zimbabwe Congress of Trade Unions (ZCTU). IN 2005 following the splitting into two factions of the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC), of which he was president, he now leads the largest faction. Mr Tsvangirai probably won the 2008 presidential election, but it appears likely that this victory will be stolen from him by Mr Mugabe and his allies fixing the results.

  Constantine Chiwenga

  The commander-in-chief of the armed forces, Constantine Chiwenga, is a Mugabe loyalist. This means that the army can be used effectively to suppress any domestic political unrest.

  Gideon Gono

  Gideon Gono is the head of the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe (RBZ, the central bank). He is the key driver of economic policy and has more power than most central bank governors. He appears to have the ear of the president and to be able to convince Mr Mugabe to make reforms to which he has so far been opposed. He has retained this position despite the ongoing implosion of the economy.

  The judiciary

  Prior to the more recent political difficulties the Zimbabwean judiciary was one of the most respected and best operating in Africa. However, there has been growing political pressure on judges in the last few years. Initially the government seemed simply to be intent on removing all white judges from the courts because of their perceived bias in favour of white farmers, which was slowing down the land reform programme. Since then all judges who seem to be unwilling to follow the ZANU-PF line have been replaced, leaving a highly politically compromised and corrupt judiciary.

  The legislature

  The constitution agreed in 1979 provided for a republic, with a prime minister heading the executive and a president as titular head. In 1987 parliament revised the constitution, replacing the office of prime minister with an executive presidency, providing for two vice-presidents and abolishing the 20 parliamentary seats reserved for the white minority. The House of Assembly has 150 members: 120 represent geographical constituencies and are elected by universal adult suffrage every five years, eight are provincial governors, ten are customary chiefs and 12 others are appointed by the president. Zimbabwe's Senate has a total of 93 seats. Six senators are elected from each of the country's 10 provinces, making a total of 60. They are joined in the chamber by ten provincial governors who are appointed by the president; the president and deputy president of the Council of Chiefs; 16 chiefs, being two chiefs from each province other than metropolitan provinces; and five senators appointed by the president.

  Media services

  Zimbabwe's press is dominated by Zimbabwe Newspapers, in which the state has a controlling interest and the newspapers are, as a result, little more than mouthpieces for the government. In recent years the privately-owned press, including the foreign media, has faced an increasing number of obstacles to operation, and many local journalists have either fled or been expelled from the country following intense intimidation. In addition, foreign correspondents have had work permits withdrawn. The government has also passed legislation to protect its monopoly on radio broadcasting. However, South African channels are also easy to tune into and satellite television, also from South Africa, provides additional news sources.

  Democracy index (for methodology, see Appendix)

  The Economist Intelligence Unit's 2006 Democracy index ranks Zimbabwe 151st out of 169 countries, putting it among the countries considered "authoritarian". This designation includes North Korea, as well as a number of other African states such as Angola and Libya.

  Given the repeated problems with recent elections in the country, including those of March 2008, Zimbabwe scores particularly badly for the Electoral process category. Elections are neither free nor fair, violence during campaigns is a major problem, opposition parties face numerous restrictions and the government has not changed hands since independence. The country scores almost as poorly in the Government functioning category: the military is often used as a tool of suppression, there is endemic corruption and a lack of confidence in government amongst the electorate.

  Political participation scores higher, although still not very high. Voter turnout at general elections is usually significant, but the score is held back by the fact that many voters, especially those in rural areas, are more pre-occupied with scraping together a living than they are with following the latest political developments. Political culture is the highest scoring category, buoyed by the general support there is amongst the electorate for democracy, even if they do not actually experience it. The score for Civil liberties is predictably low, hindered by the lack of an independent media, the frequent use of violence and the partisan nature of the judiciary.

  Democracy index
  	Overall score	Overall rank	Electoral process	Government functioning	Political participation	Political culture	Civil liberties	Regime type
  Zimbabwe	2.53	151	0.00	0.79	3.89	5.63	2.35	Authoritarian

  Download text file (csv format)

  May 09, 2008

• Structure

  Zimbabwe: Political structure

  Official name

  Republic of Zimbabwe

  Form of state

  Unitary republic

  Legal system

  Based on Roman-Dutch law and the 1979 constitution

  National legislature

  House of Assembly with 210 members, all of whom are directly elected; a Senate of 66 members (50 of whom are directly elected, six appointed by the president and ten seats held by traditional chiefs) was established in November 2005

  National elections

  March 2008 (presidential, legislative and Senate); the timing of the next elections is politically controversial, and polls are likely to be held in mid-2013

  Head of state

  President, elected by universal suffrage

  National government

  The president and his appointed cabinet; a power-sharing government was formed in February 2009 in accordance with an agreement signed after the disputed 2008 elections

  Main political parties

  Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF), the ruling party since 1980; the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC), formed by the trade union movement in September 1999; a breakaway MDC movement, the MDC-N, is in the government of national unity, while a number of smaller parties and independent candidates also contest elections

  President: Robert Mugabe

  Prime minister: Morgan Tsvangirai

  Key ZANU-PF ministers

  Agriculture, mechanisation & irrigation: Joseph Made

  Defence: Emmerson Mnangagwa

  Energy & water development: Kenneth Konga

  Environment & natural resources management: Francis Nhema

  Foreign affairs: Simbarashe Mumbengegwi

  Justice & legal affairs: Patrick Chinamasa

  Lands & rural resettlement: Herbert Murerwa

  Media, information & publicity: Webster Shamu

  Mines & minerals development: Obert Mpofu

  Transport & infrastructural development: Nicholas Goche

  Key MDC ministers

  Economic planning & investment promotion: Tapiwa Mashakada

  Education, sport, art & culture: David Coltart

  Energy & power development: Elton Mangoma

  Finance: Tendai Biti

  Health & child welfare: Henry Madzorera

  Home affairs: Theresa Makone

  Housing & social amenities: Giles Mutsekwa

  Industry & commerce: Welshman Ncube

  Labour & social security: Paurina Gwanyanya

  Public works: Joel Gabuza

  Reserve Bank governor

  Gideon Gono

  December 05, 2012

• Outlook

  Zimbabwe: Key developments

  Outlook for 2013-17

  • Zimbabwe's electoral schedule has yet to be agreed, but polls are likely to be held in 2013.
  • A free and fair poll would probably see the election of Morgan Tsvangirai and his Movement for Democratic Change (MDC). However, previous polls have been deeply flawed, and the 2013 vote is likely to be similarly skewed.
  • The MDC will continue to turn to regional powers to put pressure on the president, Robert Mugabe, to implement a new constitution and hold polls under its terms, but this may not prove successful.
  • The IMF has suggested that a staff-monitored programme could take effect from early 2013, but this timetable is likely to prove overambitious given Fund doubts about spending plans and the transparency of diamond revenue.
  • Despite a planned reduction in public spending, the government is likely to continue to run up domestic arrears and seek loans from non-traditional sources as revenue streams disappoint.
  • Growth in 2013 will largely be determined by the conduct and outcome of elections, but is highly unlikely to reach the official forecast of 5%.
  • The current-account deficit as a percentage of GDP is set to rise in 2013-14, reflecting stagnant exports.

  Review

  • A stakeholder conference on the planned new constitution has been held, but has not fundamentally changed existing political positions and could be a waste of time and money.
  • Although it has made progress in some areas, Zimbabwe remains at the bottom of the World Bank's global Doing Business rankings.
  • The IMF has relaxed most of its restrictions on technical assistance to Zimbabwe, potentially opening the way for a shadow economic programme and, ultimately, debt restructuring.
  • The finance minister has revised down growth projections for 2012-13, and says that expansion is contingent on a stable political environment and restrained government spending, neither of which seems likely.
  • South Africa's Anglo Platinum is reportedly considering construction of a US$400m second platinum mine in Zimbabwe, to reduce dependence on South African output. However, details remain scarce.
  • A 1,200-mw, US$3.5bn thermal power plant has been mooted, as part of an ambitious programme to help to address the country's power deficit.

  December 05, 2012

Economy:

• Background

  Zimbabwe: Economic background

  GDP by sector
  (% share of GDP)
  	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005
  Agriculture	20.1	16.3	18.0	18.2	17.5
  Industry	26.1	24.3	23.2	23.3	22.0
  Manufacturing	18.1	16.4	15.8	14.9	13.2
  Services	53.7	59.4	58.8	58.6	60.5
  Source: World Bank.

  Download text file (csv format)

  May 09, 2008

• Structure

  Zimbabwe: Economic structure

  Data and charts: Annual trends charts

  
  

  

  December 05, 2012

• Outlook

  Zimbabwe: Country outlook

  Zimbabwe: Country outlook

  FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT

  POLITICAL STABILITY: Political uncertainty is set to rise substantially in 2013-14 in the run-up to and aftermath of elections. Relations are poor between the two main parties in the power-sharing government-Robert Mugabe's Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF) and Morgan Tsvangirai's Movement for Democratic Change (MDC)-although the two have co-existed since the signing of the Global Political Agreement (GPA) in September 2008. In previous polls ZANU-PF has used violent and intimidatory tactics against MDC supporters, often via so-called war veterans (many of whom are too young to have served in the country's liberation war), and the party may well do so again-although opinion polls suggest that the MDC is steadily losing support. Equally, many high-ranking members of the security forces remain determined to prevent an MDC victory, and although they are not expected to intervene overtly (by staging a coup, for example), it is likely that they will contribute to an unstable environment in which the vote is neither free nor fair, and may also collaborate in (or at least fail to prevent) vote-rigging.

  ELECTION WATCH: Zimbabwe's electoral schedule remains in a state of flux. Mr Mugabe stated in September 2012 that a referendum on a new constitution would be held in November 2012, to be followed by harmonised presidential and legislative polls at the end of March 2013. However, the MDC has dismissed this timetable as unrealistic, while members of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) have reaffirmed that there should be no elections in Zimbabwe before the terms of the GPA-including the installation of a new constitution-are fully implemented. While a stakeholder conference on the proposed constitution was held in October 2012, there are a number of reasons why a public referendum is unlikely to take place before the end of the year. The government does not have the administrative resources-and, in particular, the US$100m in finance-necessary to meet such a deadline, while logistically speaking it would be very difficult to hold a referendum at the height of the rainy season. Equally, outstanding clauses have yet to be agreed, meaning that the process could be delayed for months. The earliest likely date for a referendum is therefore April or May 2013, which in theory opens the way for polls in the first half of 2013. Mr Mugabe continues to insist that, regardless of the constitutional process, Zimbabwe must hold elections in March 2013, when the current parliament's five-year term ends. For his part, Morgan Tsvangirai says that there will be no elections until a new constitution is in place, while the justice minister, Patrick Chinamasa, continues to warn that the military will not accept an MDC victory and will stage a coup rather than allow that to happen. All of these are extreme positions, however. The most likely scenario is that the constitution will be finally amended and agreed by the three political leaders, leading to a referendum, perhaps in the second quarter of 2013, and elections in October or November of that year. Furthermore, the military is highly unlikely to resort to direct post-election action, although it is expected to intervene as much as it can to engineer a victory for Mr Mugabe and ZANU-PF.

  INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS: Mr Mugabe and ZANU-PF continue to take an antagonistic approach towards Western states, threatening to nationalise companies based in Western nations that have imposed sanctions against Zimbabwe. They will continue to call for the lifting of the measures while continuing to blame them-rather than ill-advised domestic policymaking-for the country's economic underperformance. The MDC, for its part, will continue to turn to regional powers-notably South Africa-to bolster its weak domestic position, but there are signs that the region is tiring of the protracted dispute. In addition, it is far from clear what practical assistance regional states can offer, given that they are highly unlikely to countenance the use of force in the event of fraudulent elections. There are signs that some donors believe they should encourage Zimbabwe to hold free and fair elections by lifting sanctions. However, measures may well stay in place (or be reimposed) if, as seems likely, there are serious concerns about the conduct of the next elections. However, a new ZANU-PF government would increasingly turn its attention to Asia for trade and aid. An MDC victory, by contrast, would open the way for renewed relations with OECD states and a substantial influx of foreign aid.

  POLICY TRENDS: In the early part of the forecast period economic policy will continue to be driven by political considerations, with the prospect of elections overshadowing policy reform. The government remains split on proposed indigenisation legislation under which firms would have to ensure that at least 51% of their shares were held by indigenous (black) Zimbabweans, and ministers are unlikely to agree a common position-as underscored by public ministerial disagreements over a suggestion by the finance minister, Tendai Biti, that the indigenisation law should be relaxed. The government has also announced a long-term "comprehensive" farming strategy that will include the "finalisation" of the land-reform programme and a range of initiatives covering finance and marketing programmes. However, although financing is clearly acting as a major constraint on growth in the agricultural sector, the programme looks unlikely to solve other underlying difficulties (including the underperformance of land that has been redistributed). The IMF has relaxed most of its restrictions on technical assistance to Zimbabwe, potentially opening the way for a shadow economic programme and, ultimately, a debt-restructuring agreement that would lead to resumed lending by the multilateral agencies. However, the suggested timeframe-with a staff-monitored programme (SMP) taking effect from January 2013-looks to be overambitious given the Fund's ongoing concerns, such as the size of the public-sector wage bill and the transparency of diamond-sector finances.

  ECONOMIC GROWTH: Growth prospects for 2013-14 will be determined largely by the conduct and outcome of any elections. In a best-case scenario, polls would be conducted under international supervision and would reflect the will of the people-which would probably equate to a moderate MDC victory. This would open the way for substantial foreign aid and more business-friendly economic policies, thus fuelling more rapid economic growth. At the other end of the spectrum, elections that are violent, or palpably neither free nor fair, would depress business and investor sentiment still further (outside site-specific sectors such as mining), while macroeconomic policymaking would probably remain inadequate and Zimbabwe could well fall back into recession. In November Mr Biti reduced his 2012 growth estimate again, to 4.4%, from 5.6% in mid-year and 9.4% in late 2011. The finance minister is currently suggesting that growth will accelerate slightly to 5% in 2013-driven by mining (which he expects to grow by 17% in 2013) and agriculture (expanding by 6.5%)-before rising again to an annual average of 6% in 2014-15. This looks to be overly optimistic, however. Mr Biti himself concedes that the outlook for 2013 is being affected by factors including a deeper global downturn, financial sector instability and a domestic poor business climate. Furthermore, this does not take into account the possible impact of next year's elections, which are likely to contribute to economic and policymaking uncertainty during the first half of the year, and could well derail growth should the electoral process prove violent. Given the additional possibility of a decline in international prices for some of Zimbabwe's key commodities, notably platinum and tobacco, the Economist Intelligence Unit is forecasting growth of just 2.2% in 2013. Projected declines in the price of tobacco and-in particular-gold could affect investment in those sectors and, thus, Zimbabwean growth in the latter part of the forecast period, although the international price of platinum is expected to increase by an annual average of 4.6% in 2016-17. If an MDC-led administration is in place, these trends should be ameliorated somewhat by an upturn in foreign investment. If, however, ZANU PF is returned to power, or a protracted period of inter-party negotiations leads to another fractious "unity" administration that deters potential investors, growth could well fall sharply again. At the same time, slow progress in addressing structural bottlenecks, including infrastructural deficiencies and a poor business climate, will act as a constraint on growth. We therefore project annual growth to increase from 2.4% in 2014 to 3.6% by 2017, but this is again subject to a significant margin of error.

  INFLATION: International food prices will remain high by historical standards, partly because of the still-low level of stocks but also because of population growth, developing-world urbanisation and the impact of biofuels production. This will be compounded by increasing domestic wage demands as workers (in the public sector, in particular) seek to address the long-term erosion of their spending power. Official inflation data show that year-on-year inflation eased fractionally, from 3.97% in June to 3.94% in July, but the figures remain deeply unreliable; they are largely failing to reflect rapid wage inflation, for example. In addition, the authorities are expected to boost spending and wage awards in the run-up to polls, and this is likely to boost average inflation to 8.7% in 2013. However, inflation should remain contained by historical standards, moderating to 4.9% in 2017, provided that the next government does not revert to the disastrous policies used previously, such as printing money to finance deficits.

  EXCHANGE RATES: Emmerson Mnangagwa, the minister of defence and one of the front-runners to succeed Mr Mugabe-has pledged that ZANU-PF will return to use of the Zimbabwe dollar "once" it wins the next election. Although Mr Mnangagwa does not speak for all in the party, renewed use of the currency-which contributed to the country's earlier catastrophic inflation-certainly cannot be ruled out should ZANU-PF come out on top in elections. An MDC administration would be more likely to take a gradualist approach, but it too might consider a return to use of the Zimbabwe dollar, given business concerns about Zimbabwe's ability to operate effectively with the US dollar as its currency, not least because much of the country's trade is with Southern African states that do not use the US unit.

  EXTERNAL SECTOR: Ferro-alloys, platinum, gold and tobacco will continue to dominate export earnings, while diamonds are becoming an increasingly important source- notwithstanding the imposition of US sanctions and concerns about the revenue being diverted. Tobacco farmers are expected to seek to boost output over the forecast period, but the sector is increasingly dominated by smallholder producers, whose yields and output quality are far lower. Equally, global tobacco prices are expected to shrink by annual averages up to 8.4% over the next five years. Expansion in the mining sector will be influenced by international mineral prices, the government's approach to international investment and the success of attempts to boost the power supply. Increased mining-sector activity and humanitarian assistance are helping to boost imports, which are dominated by consumer imports rather than investment goods or inputs for industry; both could be undermined by political developments, particularly if the election process becomes violent. The services account is likely to remain in deficit in 2013-17, not least because tourism will recover slowly at best; the sector could be further undermined should elections be accompanied by serious unrest. The income account is also set to remain in deficit, even though the repatriation of profits and debt-service payments will be limited. Only the current transfers account will be in surplus, owing to continued remittances by the 3.5m-plus Zimbabweans living abroad. After shrinking as a percentage of GDP in 2012-largely as a result of a substantial rise in tobacco prices (reflecting poor harvests from other key producers)-the current-account deficit is set to increase in 2013-14, reflecting in part political and business concerns in the run-up to and aftermath of polls, before trending down to average 25.3% annually in 2016-17. However, there are a number of downside risks to this forecast, including export price declines, the negative impact of over-hasty indigenisation, more persistent political and business uncertainty and higher than anticipated increases in import food and fuel prices.

  December 07, 2012

View detailed map

Country Briefing

Land area

390,580 sq km

Population

12.8m (a) (2012, World Gazetteer estimate)

Main towns

Population in '000, 2012 (World Gazetteer estimates)

Harare (capital): 1,792

Bulawayo: 767

Chitungwiza (b): 365

Gweru: 142

Climate

Subtropical

Weather in Harare (altitude 1,472 metres)

Hottest months, October and November, 16-27°C; coldest months, June and July, 7-21°C (average daily minimum and maximum); driest month, July, 1 mm average rainfall; wettest month, January, 196 mm average rainfall

Languages

English (official), Shona, Ndebele and local dialects

Measures

Metric system

Currency

Zimbabwe dollar (Z$) = 100 cents; however, because of rampant inflation the government has moved to a multi-currency system, using the US dollar and South African rand in preference to the Zimbabwe dollar

Time

2 hours ahead of GMT

Public holidays

January 1st (New Year's Day), Good Friday, Easter Monday, April 18th (Independence Day), May 1st (Workers' Day), May 25th (Africa Day), August 11th (Heroes' Day), August 12th (Defence Forces' National Day), December 22nd (Unity Day), December 25th and 26th (Christmas Day and Boxing Day); many firms close for a summer break of one to two weeks over the Christmas and New Year period

(a) Estimates of Zimbabwe's population vary considerably depending on how they account for the impact of AIDS. The last census was in 2002, which showed a population of 11.6m—about 2m below earlier projections. (b) Harare's former township.

March 21, 2012