Samoa

Politics:

• Analysis

  Samoa politics: Fourth quarter marked major milestones

  Samoa politics: Fourth quarter marked major milestones

  FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT

  The final quarter of 2011 in Samoa was marked in momentous fashion, with a trio of significant events. In late December 2011, as expected, the World Trade Organisation approved Samoa's membership, in a culmination of a 13-year process. Samoa now has until mid-June to ratify its accession package, which includes the controversial relaxing of rules on the importation of left-hand-drive vehicles and high-fat turkey tails.

  The new year was marked in Samoa by the country's widely reported recrossing of the International Date Line, moving a day ahead, to align the country with key trading partners, including Australia and New Zealand. The new year also saw the marking of the 50th anniversary of Samoan independence from New Zealand. A large programme of events is planned to mark the occasion throughout 2012, including the minting of commemorative coins in May.

  Ironically, early 2012 also saw the controversial government-ordered demolition in March of the "Fale Fono"--Samoa's first parliamentary house, which was opened in 1916--on safety grounds.

  April 26, 2012

• Background

  Samoa: Key figures

  Tuiatua Tupua Tamasese Efi

  A former prime minister, and the current head of state (since June 2007).

  Tuila'epa Sa'ilele Malielegaoi

  Mr Tuila'epa has served as prime minister since 1997.

  August 27, 2008

• Structure

  Samoa: Political structure

  Official name

  Independent State of Samoa

  Form of state

  Parliamentary democracy with a UK-style cabinet-led government

  The executive

  The prime minister, chosen by a majority in the Fono (parliament), selects 12 ministers to form a cabinet; cabinet decisions may be reviewed by the Executive Council, which consists of the cabinet and the head of state

  Head of state

  Tuiatua Tupua Tamasese Efi

  National legislature

  Unicameral, 49-member Fono. Of the total, 47 members are elected by all Samoans aged 21 or over to represent 41 constituencies, while the remaining two are elected from electoral rolls made up of non-Samoans. Elections are held every five years

  Legal system

  System of lower courts leading to the Court of Appeal

  National elections

  March 2011; the next election is due in March 2016

  National government

  The Human Rights Protection Party (HRPP), led by Tuila'epa Sa'ilele Malielegaoi, currently holds 30 of the 49 seats in the Fono

  Main political parties

  HRPP; Tautua Samoa Party (TSP)

  Key ministers

  Prime minister, minister of foreign affairs, tourism & trade, attorney-general: Tuila'epa Sa'ilele Malielegaoi

  Deputy prime minister, minister of commerce, industry & labour: Fonotoe Nuafesili Pierre Lauofo

  Agriculture, forests & fisheries: Lemamea Ropati

  Communications & information technology: Tuisugaletaua Sofara Aveau

  Education, sports & culture: Magele Mauiliu Magele

  Finance: Faumuina Liuga

  Health: Tuitama Leao Tuitama

  Justice: Fiame Naomi Mataafa

  Natural resources & environment: Faamoetauloa Faale

  Police: Sala Fata Pinati

  Revenue: Tuiloma Pule Lameko

  Women, community & social development: Tolofuaivalelei Falemoe Leiataua

  Works, transport & infrastructure: Manualesegalala Enokati Posala

  HRPP parliamentary speaker

  La'aulialemalietoa Leuatea Polata'ivao

  Central bank governor

  Atalina Enari

  October 10, 2012

Economy:

• Background

  Samoa: Economic background

  Gross domestic product by industrial origin
  (Tala m; constant 2002 prices)
  	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006
  Agriculture	129.8	124.7	116.1	121.6	116.6
  Manufacturing	137.3	144.5	137.0	133.3	121.5
  Electricity, gas & water	42.1	42.2	43.1	44.7	46.7
  Construction	53.8	54.8	74.3	84.5	87.7
  Trade	196.9	201.2	206.3	218.5	232.2
  Transport & communications	104.6	113.3	120.8	126.9	130.8
  Finance	76.3	82.7	90.4	94.8	102.7
  Public administration	71.0	75.0	78.9	90.5	100.5
  Others	83.4	85.1	87.9	89.2	90.7
  Less imputed bank service charges	-10.2	-10.9	-11.6	-12.0	-12.3
  GDP	885.0	912.6	943.3	991.8	1,017.2
  Source: Asian Development Bank, Key Indicators of Developing Asian and Pacific Countries.

  Download text file (csv format)

  The Samoan economy is based on agriculture, with subsistence farming the primary economic activity. The main food crops are coconuts, breadfruit, bananas, cocoa and taro (a root vegetable). Tourism also expanded in fiscal year 2007/08 (June-May), and there is a small-scale manufacturing industry.

  August 27, 2008

• Structure

  Samoa: Economic structure

  Economic structure: Annual indicators

  	2008a	2009a	2010a	2011a	2012b
  GDP at market prices (Tala m)	1,430.0	1,420.0	1,480.0	1,510.0	1,528.1
  GDP (US$ m)	540.8	520.0	595.7	651.6	658.6
  Real GDP growth (%)	-3.7	-1.4	1.8	1.4	1.2
  Consumer price inflation (av; %)	11.6	6.3	0.8	5.2	3.7
  Population (m)	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.2
  Exports of goods fob (US$ m)	46.9	25.9	35.1	27.4	–
  Imports of goods fob (US$ m)	-249.0	-207.9	-280.0	-318.7	–
  Current-account balance (US$ m)	-53.2	-9.3	-58.7	-76.1	–
  Foreign-exchange reserves excl gold (US$ m)	87.1	165.9	209.5	166.8	–
  Total external debt (US$ m)	205.6	235.5	–	–	–
  Debt-service ratio, paid (%)	3.5	18.2	6.7	–	–
  Exchange rate (av) Tala:US$	2.64	2.73	2.48	2.32	2.32
  a Actual. b Economist Intelligence Unit estimates. c Economist Intelligence Unit forecasts.

  Download the numbers in Excel

  Origins of gross domestic product 2010	% of total
  Trade	21.0
  Transport & communications	15.3
  Construction	12.2
  Agriculture	9.4
  Public administration	8.6
  Finance	9.8
  Manufacturing	10.8
  Other	12.9
  Principal exports 2011	% of total	Principal imports 2011	% of total
  Fresh fish	35.9	Food & live animals	23.9
  Coconut oil	26.6	Machinery & transport equipment	21.5
  Noni juice	13.6	Minerals & lubricants	21.1
  Beer	7.5	Manufactured goods	15.2
  Main destinations of exports 2011	% of total	Main origins of imports 2011	% of total
  Australia	61.1	New Zealand	28.0
  New Zealand	18.9	US	11.2
  US	13.2	Australia	10.1
  Japan	0.5	Japan	9.4
  China	0.2	China	6.4

  Download the numbers in Excel

  Download text file (csv format)

  October 10, 2012

• Outlook

  Samoa: Country outlook

  Samoa: Country outlook

  FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT

  OVERVIEW: The political scene in Samoa will continue to be dominated by the ruling Human Rights Protection Party (HRPP) over the current parliamentary term, which ends in March 2016. At present the HRPP, led by the prime minister, Tuila'epa Sa'ilele Malielegaoi, enjoys the support of 37 members of parliament (MPs), including seven independents in the legislature. Tensions with the Fijian government are likely to continue to simmer throughout the 2013-14 forecast period, with the Samoan government pressing for an early return to democracy in Fiji. The Economist Intelligence Unit forecasts that real GDP will grow by 2% a year on average in 2013-14. We expect inflation to average 2.7% a year in the period as global food and fuel prices moderate. The government will record large fiscal deficits in the next two years, limiting its ability to meet the costs of financing large-scale reconstruction following a tsunami that struck the island of Upolu in 2009. The country will benefit from financial support from international donors, but this will increase significant levels of external debt.

  DOMESTIC POLITICS: The HRPP performed well in the March 2011 election, securing 29 seats in the 49-member legislature. The main opposition Tautua Samoa Party (TSP) also performed well, winning 13 seats, and poses a credible threat to the HRPP. Following the poll, a string of allegations of bribery and corruption were brought before the courts, leading to the dismissal of four MPs, including three members of the HRPP and the then leader of the TSP, Va'ai Papu Vaipule. In by-elections for these seats, in July 2011, the HRPP won all four seats, increasing its tally of MPs to 30. It also enjoys the support of seven independent MPs. Power is increasingly being concentrated with Mr Tuila'epa. In early September 2012 he appointed himself minister of the legislative assembly, a role previously held by the deputy prime minister, Fonotoe Nuafesili Pierre Lauofo. The prime minister, who now holds eight government portfolios, said that he had "hardly anything to do". The self-appointment, and the manner in which it was announced-via an interview with the Samoa Observer newspaper-will heighten concerns about Mr Tuila'epa's high-handed rule. Having successfully passed a constitutional amendment (under the previous parliament) to prohibit the formation of new parties by incumbent MPs, the HRPP will remain keen to consolidate its firm grip on power. To that end, it may seek to pass legislation that further suppresses the activities of political parties and individuals outside the ruling party, as well as tightening the eligibility requirements for independents running for office. The HRPP is likely to govern for a full five-year term. There is a perception among the electorate that the parliamentary system is biased in favour of the HRPP, especially following party-formation rules passed by the government in 2009 that prevent MPs from changing party affiliations during the course of a parliamentary term. These perceptions raise questions about the scope for opposition parties to operate effectively. However, the TSP has garnered enough seats to qualify as an official opposition party (for which it needed to win more than nine seats).

  INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS: Although the HRPP's dominance of politics draws periodic criticism from the governments of Australia and New Zealand, funding from these countries will continue. Tensions with the Fijian government are likely to continue to simmer throughout 2013-14. Samoa's leadership will remain critical of the postponement of democratic elections in Fiji until at least 2014, as well as of the Fijian administration's adversarial stance towards the governments of Australia and New Zealand.

  POLICY TRENDS: The Samoan government will focus its efforts on relief and reconstruction, following the tsunami in September 2009, which caused extensive damage to the south-west and south-east of the island of Upolu. The country's five-year reconstruction and recovery plan will end in 2013. The HRPP will need to show that it is capable of adequately managing the ongoing reconstruction efforts in order to prevent discontent among the general population from rising. In December 2011 the World Trade Organisation approved Samoa's membership, but negotiations will continue over the country's participation in a potential free-trade agreement between the Pacific island nations, Australia and New Zealand, known as the Pacific Agreement on Closer Economic Relations-Plus.

  ECONOMIC GROWTH: Real GDP (according to the Samoa Bureau of Statistics' 2002-based series) grew by 1.8% in 2010 and by 1.4% in 2011, representing relatively modest expansions. In the first quarter of 2012 real GDP expanded by 0.6% year on year, the slowest pace of growth since the third quarter of 2009, when the tsunami struck the island of Upolu. The rebuilding of parts of the island that were damaged by the disaster has had a positive impact on economic activity in the past three years, boosting the construction sector in particular, as infrastructure projects have been undertaken and homes and offices rebuilt. The positive contribution to economic activity from rebuilding is diminishing steadily, however, and the reconstruction plan is scheduled to end next year. In 2012 we estimate real GDP growth at 1.2%. The tourism sector is performing well, with visitor numbers temporarily boosted by a number of international sporting events. Economic expansion is forecast to accelerate to 1.7% in 2013 and 2.2% in 2014. Consumer price inflation averaged 5.2% in 2011, exceeding the 3% target of the Central Bank of Samoa (CBS), but the rate of price increases has slowed since then. Consumer prices rose by 3.8% year on year in July, down from a recent high of 11.4% in December 2011. We estimate that inflation averaged 3.7% in the year as a whole. In 2013 the rate of inflation is expected to slow further, to 1.9% on an annual average basis, in line with a decline in international commodity prices. We expect global oil prices (dated Brent Blend) to average US$103.4/barrel in 2013, down from an estimated US$109.5/b in 2012. In 2014 the rate of inflation will accelerate to 3.5% on average. Oil prices in that year will rise to US$104.5/b.

  EXTERNAL ACCOUNT: The tala strengthened sharply against the US dollar in 2010-11, averaging Tala2.32:US$ in 2011, taking its cumulative appreciation since 2009 to 17.8%. But in real effective terms the pace of appreciation has been much slower, as the currencies of Samoa's main trading partners, and notably Australia, have also strengthened against the US dollar. In 2012 we estimate that the tala weakened by 0.1% on average against the US dollar. The CBS will intervene to maintain a relatively stable real effective exchange rate in 2013-14, when we expect the tala to weaken by 1.5% a year on average against the US dollar. The merchandise trade deficit narrowed to Tala47.3m (around US$20m) in July, according to the CBS. However, the wide deficit will remain a matter of concern in 2013-14, reflecting still-high reconstruction-related imports and weaker demand from external markets. Exports rose by 40% year on year to Tala7.3m, while imports fell by 7.7% to Tala54.5m. Although a tsunami-related decline in tourism receipts has also negatively affected the current-account position in recent years, as reconstruction finishes we expect a return to healthier levels of services exports by 2013. This will be supported by large inflows of foreign aid and remittances on the transfers account, but the overreliance on private remittances from overseas Samoans to support the balance of payments is a concern.

  October 11, 2012

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Country Briefing

Land area

2,831 sq km

Population

180,741 (2006 census); 180,000 (2010 IMF estimate)

Major islands

Upolu and Savai'i

Capital

Apia, on Upolu (population 37,708 at 2006 census)

Climate

Tropical; temperature range: 24-30°C

Weather in Apia (altitude 2 metres)

Average rainfall is 3,000 mm per year. There is a dry season from May to August and a rainy season from November to April

Languages

English and Samoan (official languages)

Measures

Metric

Currency

Tala. Average exchange rate in 2011: Tala2.32:US$1

Fiscal year

July 1st-June 30th

Time

12 hours ahead of GMT

Public holidays

January 1st-3rd (New Year); April 6th and 9th (Easter); May 7th (Mother's Day); June 1st-3rd (Independence Day); August 13th (Father's Day); October 14th (White Monday); December 25th (Christmas Day); December 26th (Boxing Day)

July 25, 2012