Trinidad and Tobago

Politics:

• Analysis

  Trinidad and Tobago politics: Quick View - Tobago Assembly elections will t

  Event

  The Tobago House of Assembly (THA), an elected body with administrative controls over the internal affairs of Tobago, Trinidad's sister island, was dissolved on October 27th, three months before the end of its four-year term. Elections are now expected to take place in mid- to late January.

  Analysis

  The elections will be a key test for the main opposition party, the People's National Movement (PNM), which was battered in the 2010 general election. Tobago has been a PNM stronghold since the 1990s, but the ruling People's Partnership coalition government has expressed confidence that the Tobago Organisation of the People (TOP)-which is a member of the coalition-will pick up seats at the polls. In the 2009 THA elections, the PNM won eight of the Assembly's 12 seats, with the TOP taking the remaining four.

  Tensions between the PNM and the central government increased recently after the prime minister, Kamla Persad-Bissessar, ordered two multimillion-dollar projects in Tobago to be halted and referred to the attorney-general and the Integrity Commission for investigation. She claims that the contracts, negotiated by the THA, lack transparency and contravene existing legislation. The chief secretary of the now-dissolved Assembly, Orville London, has defended the projects, alleging that the prime minister's actions are politically motivated and are aimed at attracting voters away from the PNM.

  November 12, 2012

• Background

  Trinidad and Tobago: Key figures

  Patrick Manning

  Prime minister and leader of the People's National Movement (PNM). A geologist by training, Mr Manning was first elected to parliament in 1970 and became PNM leader in 1986. As prime minister from 1991 to 1995 he presided over the beginnings of an economic recovery. He came under severe pressure as a result of election defeats in 1995 and 2000 and only narrowly staved off challenges to his leadership. Appointed prime minister in December 2001 and re-elected in general elections in October 2002 and November 2007, his quiet delivery contrasts sharply with the more aggressive style of Basdeo Panday.

  Basdeo Panday

  Leader of the opposition and chairman of the United National Congress (UNC). As prime minister from 1995 to 2001 he embraced market-oriented economic policies, supported by expenditure on infrastructure and social development. Although an effective political communicator, he is prone to public outbursts that have antagonised some groups, and his reputation remains tainted by corruption charges that are still before the courts.

  Winston Dookeran

  Leader of the Congress of the People (COP), which he formed in September 2006. Mr Dookeran lectured in economics at the University of the West Indies and entered parliament in 1981 as a member of Mr Panday's United Labour Front (ULF). He was a widely respected minister for planning in the 1986-91 National Alliance for Reconstruction (NAR) government, remaining with the party when Mr Panday left in 1988. He was governor of the Central Bank of Trinidad and Tobago from 1997 to July 2002 and joined the UNC at Mr Panday's request, winning a parliamentary seat in that year's election and subsequently forming the moderate wing of the UNC.

  The judiciary

  The judicial system is based on English common law and practice. Judicial authority is divided between a higher judiciary, the Supreme Court of Judicature, and a lower judiciary, the Magistracy. The Supreme Court consists of the High Court of Justice and the Court of Appeal. Other courts include courts of summary jurisdiction and petty civil courts. According to the constitution, the High Court of Justice consists of the chief justice, who serves ex-officio, and a prescribed number of other judges. The judges have equal power, authority and jurisdiction. The Court of Appeal consists of the chief justice, who serves as president, and a prescribed number of justices of appeal. The Court of Appeal is a superior court of record and has all the powers of such a court. The chief justice is appointed by the president, after consultation with the prime minister and the leader of the opposition. The other judges of the Supreme Court are also appointed by the president, acting on the advice of the Judicial and Legal Service Commission. The constitution states that appeals from the Court of Appeal may be made to the Judicial Committee of the Privy Council in London under certain circumstances. Criminal defendants are presumed innocent and are afforded the right to representation by counsel. In practice, the court system suffers from a backlog of cases owing to inadequate resources and inefficiency.

  Media services

  Trinidad and Tobago has a free and diverse press. There are three daily newspapers: Trinidad Express, Trinidad Guardian and Newsday. There are state-owned and private terrestrial television channels, some of which can be received only on cable. Satellite and cable television are widely available, the latter carrying mainly international stations, but also local ones. There are upwards of 36 radio stations, although stagnating advertising revenue could lead to some mergers.

  Democracy index (for methodology, see Appendix)

  The Economist Intelligence Unit's 2008 democracy index ranks Trinidad and Tobago 47th out of 167 countries, putting it among the 52 countries considered "flawed democracies". This designation includes regional neighbours such as Jamaica, Suriname, Guyana and the Dominican Republic as well as Latin American countries including Mexico, Colombia, Chile, Argentina and Brazil. However, Trinidad and Tobago is well placed within this category, ranking ahead of all of these countries with the exception of Chile and Brazil. Its relatively strong position owes much to its high score in the electoral process and civil liberties categories. In these areas Trinidad and Tobago outscores several countries that fall into our designation as "full democracies", including Costa Rica. In the political participation, government functioning and political culture categories, however, Trinidad and Tobago fares somewhat worse.

  Democracy index
  	Overall score	Overall rank	Electoral process	Government functioning	Political participation	Political culture	Civil liberties	Regime type
  Trinidad and Tobago	7.21	47	9.58	6.79	6.11	5.63	7.94	Flawed democracy
  Overall and component scores are on a scale of 0 to 10; overall rank is out of 167 countries.

  Download text file (csv format)

  May 13, 2008

• Structure

  Trinidad and Tobago: Political structure

  Official name

  Republic of Trinidad and Tobago

  Form of government

  Unitary state, with some degree of regional autonomy for Tobago

  The executive

  The prime minister appoints a cabinet, which is responsible to parliament

  Head of state

  President elected by an electoral college comprising all members of parliament, currently George Maxwell Richards

  National legislature

  Bicameral parliament: 41-member directly elected House of Representatives (the lower house); 31-member Senate (the upper house), comprising members nominated by the prime minister, the leader of the opposition and the president, and appointed by the president; parliament sits for five years

  Regional legislature

  The Tobago House of Assembly was established in 1980 with certain powers over the island's finances and other delegated policy, planning and administrative responsibilities; it comprises 12 elected members, in addition, six members are appointed by the majority party and one by the minority party

  Legal system

  A full system of regional and appellate courts, with the appeals court at the apex of domestic courts; final appellate power rests with the Judicial Committee of the Privy Council in the UK

  National elections

  Next national election due in 2015

  Local government elections: last election July 2010; next election due July 2013

  Main political organisations

  Government: People's Partnership (PP) coalition consisting of the United National Congress (UNC), Tobago Organisation of the People (TOP), Congress of the People (COP), National Joint Action Committee (NJAC) and the Movement for Social Justice (MSJ)

  Opposition: People's National Movement (PNM)

  Key ministers

  Prime minister: Kamla Persad-Bissessar

  President: George Maxwell Richards

  Attorney-general: Anand Ramlogan

  Education: Tim Gopeesingh

  Energy & energy affairs: Kevin Ramnarine

  Finance & economy: Larry Howai

  Foreign affairs: Winston Dookeran

  Health: Fuad Khan

  Justice: Herbert Volney

  Legal affairs: Prakash Ramadhar

  Local government: Surujrattan Rambachan

  National security: Austin Warner

  Planning: Bhoendradatt Tewarie

  Public administration: Carolyn Seepersad-Bachan

  People & social development: Glenn Ramadhardsingh

  Housing: Roodal Moonilal

  Sports & youth affairs: Anil Roberts

  Tourism: Stephen Cadiz

  Trade, industry & investment: Vasant Bharath

  Works & infrastructure: Emmanuel George

  Central Bank governor

  Jwala Rambarran

  November 21, 2012

• Outlook

  Trinidad and Tobago: Key developments

  Outlook for 2013-17

  • Challenges facing the prime minister, Kamla Persad-Bissessar, include kick-starting the weak economy, combating crime and managing tensions within her People's Partnership (PP) coalition. The PP is likely to stay intact, however.
  • After estimated shrinkage of 0.5% in 2012, GDP will grow 2% in 2013 thanks to expansionary public spending and a pick up in energy-sector output. It will average 3.8% in 2014-17, as gas prices recover and global demand revives.
  • The fiscal accounts will stay in deficit, as the government boosts spending to stimulate economic activity and gas revenue rises only gradually. The deficit will be 4.7% of GDP in 2012/13 but will narrow to 0.3% by 2016/17.
  • Monetary policy will remain accommodative through 2014-15. We then expect the authorities to begin to raise the policy rate in line with firmer GDP growth and an increase in the Federal Reserve (the US central bank) Funds rate.
  • Consumer price inflation will ease to 5.2% at end-2013, owing to tepid local demand and more stable food prices. It will rise thereafter as demand pressures and commodity prices pick up, to an average of 6.3% in 2014-17.
  • The current-account surplus will be 7.9% of GDP in 2013, similar to that of 2012 but down from previous levels owing to lower exports and a change in methodology for measuring income flows. It will average 10.9% in 2014-17.

  Review

  • The Tobago House of Assembly was dissolved on October 27th, three months ahead of the end of its term. Elections are expected to take place in mid- to late January 2013. Self-government could emerge as a key election issue.
  • The 2012/13 budget assumes a central government deficit of TT$7.7bn (US$1.2bn; 4.6% of projected 2012/13 GDP), the third consecutive fiscal deficit, as the government seeks to provide fuel to the stagnant economy.
  • GDP shrank by 3.6% year on year in the second quarter, after contracting 0.1% in the first. This mainly reflected a decline of 7.3% in the energy sector owing to maintenance and security work. The non-energy sector shrank by 0.7%.
  • Annual consumer price inflation has been declining since May as the rate of increase in food prices has moderated. Inflation dropped to 7.7% in September from 7.9% in August, despite a month-on-month jump of 1.1%.
  • With the economy weak and inflation falling, the Central Bank cut its benchmark repurchase rate by 25 basis points (to 2.75%) in September-the first cut since July 2011-although it held it steady in October.

  November 21, 2012

Economy:

• Background

  Trinidad and Tobago: Economic background

  Economic structure: GDP by sector
  (% of GDP)
  	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005
  Industry	50.7	51.2	56.1	57.5	59.2
  Services	47.8	47.3	42.8	41.7	40.1
  Manufacturing	7.7	7.4	6.8	7.0	7.1
  Agriculture	1.5	1.5	1.1	0.8	0.7
  Source: World Bank.

  Download text file (csv format)

  On the demand side, private consumption was equivalent to 44.4% of GDP in 2006, down from 58.2% in 2002. Government consumption has also fallen as a percentage of GDP in recent years, accounting for 11.4% of GDP in 2006, compared with 13.6% in 2002. Investment has fluctuated in line with large-scale foreign investments and public works programmes.

  May 13, 2008

• Structure

  Trinidad and Tobago: Economic structure

  Data and charts: Annual trends charts

  
  

  

  November 21, 2012

• Outlook

  Trinidad and Tobago economy: Quick View - Headline inflation rises to 9.4%

  Event

  Annual inflation rose sharply in October, to 9.4%, from 7.7% in September. Month on month, inflation was 1.4%, up from 1.2% in September.

  Analysis

  Headline inflation, as measured by the 12-month change in the retail price index, accelerated in October after having slowed for four consecutive months. The increase was driven primarily by higher food prices, particularly for vegetables and fruit, which are heavily weighted in the price basket. On a year-on-year basis, food prices climbed 18.2% in October, up from 14.7% in September.

  Core inflation, which excludes food prices, inched up in October to 3.1% year on year, from 2.8% in September. Although this rate remained relatively low, it provides further evidence of lingering inflationary pressures, despite the continuing weakness of domestic demand. A big contributor to core inflation was an increase in the cost of premium gasoline, which, together with higher prices for motor vehicles, helped to boost the transport sub-index by 3.6% year on year during October.

  Despite the increase in headline inflation, and given flat or negative economic growth this year (we estimate a contraction of 0.5%), the relative containment of core inflation led the Central Bank of Trinidad and Tobago to keep its policy interest rate, the repo rate, steady at 2.75% in November (it reduced it to this level in September, from 3%).

  December 17, 2012

• Forecast

  Trinidad and Tobago: 5-year forecast summary

  Outlook for 2013-17: Forecast summary

  Forecast summary
  (% unless otherwise indicated)
  	2012a	2013b	2014b	2015b	2016b	2017b
  Real GDP growth	-0.5	2.0	2.5	3.8	4.5	4.2
  Industrial production growth	-0.5	3.0	3.5	4.2	4.4	4.0
  Gross agricultural production growth	-1.0	3.0	4.0	5.0	5.0	6.0
  Unemployment rate (av)	6.3	6.0	6.0	5.8	5.6	5.6
  Consumer price inflation (av)	9.1	4.3	5.8	6.1	6.4	6.9
  Consumer price inflation (end-period)	7.2	5.2	5.9	6.2	6.5	7.4
  Treasury bill rate	0.5	0.6	1.0	1.5	2.0	2.5
  Central government balance (% of GDP)	-4.0	-4.7	-3.1	-1.7	-1.1	-0.3
  Exports of goods fob (US$ bn)	14.3	14.6	16.0	17.4	19.0	20.9
  Imports of goods fob (US$ bn)	9.9	10.1	10.5	11.1	11.9	12.8
  Current-account balance (US$ bn)	1.9	2.0	2.8	3.3	3.8	4.4
  Current-account balance (% of GDP)	7.9	7.9	10.2	10.8	11.2	11.6
  External debt (year-end; US$ bn)	4.9	4.9	5.1	5.3	5.6	5.9
  Exchange rate TT$:US$ (av)	6.40	6.43	6.47	6.51	6.54	6.58
  Exchange rate TT$:¥100 (av)	8.06	7.78	7.46	7.31	7.10	7.19
  Exchange rate TT$:€ (end-period)	8.29	8.11	8.03	8.20	8.27	8.32
  Exchange rate TT$:SDR (end-period)	9.93	9.78	9.75	9.82	9.84	9.91
  a Economist Intelligence Unit estimates. b Economist Intelligence Unit forecasts.

  Download the numbers in Excel

  Download text file (csv format)

  November 21, 2012

View detailed map

Country Briefing

Land area

5,128 sq km, of which Trinidad covers 4,827 sq km and Tobago 301 sq km

Population

1.34m (2010; IMF data)

Main towns

Population in '000, 1995

Port of Spain (capital): 345

San Fernando: 58

Arima: 30

Scarborough: 5

Climate

Tropical

Weather

Hottest month, May, 22-32°C; coldest month, January, 21-31°C (average daily minimum and maximum); driest month, February, 41 mm average rainfall; wettest month, August, 246 mm average rainfall

Language

English

Measures

Conversion to the metric system has now been completed. However, US and imperial units remain in use, and are used as standard by the energy sector

Currency

Trinidad and Tobago dollar (TT$) = 100 cents. The currency has remained around its quasi-fixed level of TT$6.3-TT$6.4:US$1 since 1998

Time

4 hours behind GMT

Public holidays

January 1st; March 30th (Shouter Baptist Liberation Day); Good Friday; Easter Monday; May 30th (Indian Arrival Day); June 19th (Corpus Christi and Labour Day); August 1st (Emancipation Day); August 31st (Independence Day); September 24th (Republic Day); Diwali (November 13th in 2012); Eid ul Fitr (end of Ramadan; August 19th in 2012); December 25th and 26th (Christmas). Businesses are also closed for the annual Carnival, which is held in the two days before Ash Wednesday

March 13, 2012