Puea Thai, the main party in Thailand's governing coalition, is divided over how to approach the sensitive issue of Thaksin Shinawatra's return to the country. The party has already abandoned a reconciliation bill amid strong public backlash, and is currently considering the merits of holding a referendum on making amendments to the 2007 military-backed constitution, which would pave the way for Thaksin's homecoming. However, this course of action could be scuppered if voter turnout is low. Instead, Puea Thai appears to favour a slower but surer approach to constitutional change. Indeed, there appears to be no pressing need for the party to bring the former prime minister home in a hurry.
Supporters of the prime minister, Thaksin's younger sister, Yingluck Shinawatra, attribute her landslide election win in July 2011 to a number of factors, including pledges of higher minimum wages, support for rice prices and her promises to help to heal the country's gaping political divide. There was another aspect to her victory, however: her commitment to bring her big brother back to Thailand. Since a military coup ousted the billionaire populist politician in 2006, Thaksin has spent much of his time living overseas to avoid imprisonment on a 2008 corruption conviction. He says that the charges were trumped up to eliminate any possibility that he could make a political comeback and, since Yingluck became prime minister, she and her ministers have looked at a number of ways to bring Thaksin back to Thailand a free man. The trouble is that they cannot figure out how to do this. The biggest problem is the uproar that Thaksin's return would cause, and how it could mobilise his opponents onto the streets of Bangkok.
Divisive figure
The former prime minister is one of the most divisive figures in Thai history. He is championed by poorer Thais for his rural-centric policies. However, his powerful grassroots political machine continues to trouble Thailand's traditional ruling powers-the country's royalist bureaucracy and the influential military. Although the vast street protests which greeted other pro-Thaksin governments since the 2006 coup have largely been absent since Yingluck became prime minister, large-scale protests are likely to accompany any prospect of Thaksin's return. When parliament attempted a third and final reading for a "reconciliation" bill as part of changes to the constitution that could help to exonerate Thaksin and other persons charged with politically linked crimes in the aftermath of the 2006 coup, the opposition Democrat Party obstructed debates in the lower chamber while protesters caused mayhem outside, forcing the government to abandon its plans, at least for the time being.
Now the government is looking at other approaches to achieve its goals, including holding a referendum that could reaffirm its mandate to make changes to the military-backed 2007 constitution. The government views constitutional change as a way of resetting Thai democracy, as well as gaining some leverage to secure broad support for an amnesty law that would allow Thaksin to make his homecoming. Thaksin himself has indicated his support for a referendum, apparently confident of his continuing popularity among Thai voters, even to the extent of appearing on a Thai boxing television show beamed from Macau. Others in the Puea Thai party, including Yingluck, seem to want to strike a more cautious note. They view a referendum as a risky proposition and, to some extent, a trap laid by the army-backed drafters of the 2007 constitution. That is because the referendum can be declared void if one-half of the country's eligible voters fail to turn up at the ballot box-a real possibility given the potential for an opposition boycott and a widening sense of fatigue over the country's seemingly endless political squabbles.
Already the opposition leader, Abhisit Vejjajiva, has suggested that opposition supporters not vote, and pro-Thaksin figures, such as Chaturon Chaisang, a former deputy prime minister, have warned against a referendum, instead urging Yingluck to adopt a more cautious approach by amending the constitution line-by-line if necessary. This would be a long process but has the advantage of not being required to be put to a popular vote. The referendum approach is also problematic in that it requires a plebiscite to give the go-ahead to redrafting the constitution, and then another vote on whether the changes are acceptable, in effect doubling the risk of the entire process being rendered void if the referendum fails to attract sufficient voters. But Yingluck and others note that they will be able to continue with a step-by-step amendment process even if the referendum does not deliver the result they desire.
No hurry
After initially embracing the idea of a referendum, Puea Thai is showing signs of cooling on this quick-fix method of constitutional change. In the cold light of day, Yingluck and other key leaders now appear to view a plebiscite as a risk and are considering slower but surer approaches to constitutional change. In the coming days the party will consider what to do before the decision is put to cabinet in January. In some ways, this approach is good for the longevity of Yingluck's administration, if not for Thaksin. Already her government has outlasted many of its critics' expectations, and Yingluck herself appears to have grown increasingly confident in the role of prime minister. She has never been entirely under Thaksin's control and is comfortable making decisions without her brother's input. In addition, Thaksin's foes in the bureaucratic and military establishment appear to be able to live with her generally low-key, non-confrontational approach. Yingluck's administration has made relatively few mistakes. There is no pressing need for Puea Thai to bring Thaksin home in a hurry.
December 28, 2012
Thaksin Shinawatra
Having been ousted in a military coup in September 2006 and found guilty of corruption and abuse of power in October 2008, Thaksin is likely to remain a fugitive in self-imposed exile abroad for the foreseeable future. However, he remains a conspicuous and wealthy figure (despite the fact that around one-half of his US$2bn in frozen assets has been confiscated), and he will continue to have a strong influence on Thailand's political scene. Thaksin, who has rejected the guilty verdict against him as politically motivated, has succeeded in rallying his red-shirted supporters via telephone and video addresses. He continues to claim that he stands ready to "work for the people" and is willing to return home to help his country. Much unconfirmed, behind-the-scenes work has been done by the Puea Thai government, led by Thaksin's youngest sister, Yingluck, to engineer the former prime minister's return to Thailand as a free man. Such a development would end the current period of calm in Thailand, as Thaksin remains a deeply divisive figure, idolised by the rural masses but loathed by the urban elite.
Yingluck Shinawatra
Yingluck had been a politician for only around two months before leading Puea Thai to victory at the July 2011 general election and becoming Thailand's first female prime minister. Her political inexperience has been more conspicuous in her policymaking than in her negotiating: she has managed to bring a degree of calm to Thailand's explosive political environment, but some of her economic policies have flirted with fiscal recklessness. Yingluck had earlier worked at Advanced Info Systems, a company founded by Thaksin that is now Thailand's dominant mobile telecommunications operator. Although a newcomer to politics, Yingluck fought a successful campaign, striking up a rapport with voters with her traditional greetings and smiling demeanour. However, her critics claim that she is simply a puppet of her elder brother.
King Bhumibol Adulyadej
Now in his 80s, the world's longest-reigning monarch is increasingly frail and may not survive the next five years; he has already withdrawn from most public functions. During King Bhumibol's 60-plus years on the throne Thailand has evolved into a modern state, but one that suffers from chronic inequality between those living in the capital, Bangkok, and those inhabiting the countryside. The king is widely regarded as being a unique stabilising and unifying force for the Thai people in times of crisis, but the September 2006 coup appeared to bear out claims by critics of the crown that King Bhumibol has kept himself politically paramount at the expense of Thailand's development as a democracy. If the king does not indicate plans for a smooth and effective succession, the resulting royal transition will convulse Thailand's political landscape.
August 17, 2012
Official name
Kingdom of Thailand
Form of state
Constitutional monarchy
The executive
Under the 2007 constitution, the prime minister must be an elected member of parliament and may not hold office for more than eight years consecutively
Head of state
King Bhumibol Adulyadej
National legislature
Under the constitution, the National Assembly consists of the House of Representatives (the lower house) and the Senate (the upper house). At the time of the July 2011 general election the membership of the lower house was increased from 480 to 500, with 125 members elected by proportional representation under a party-list system (up from 80 previously) and 375 elected by geographical constituencies on a first-past-the-post basis. The 150-member upper house is only partly elected: 74 of its members are appointed by a selection committee
National elections
An election for 76 members of the upper house took place in March 2008; the next upper house election is due in 2014. A lower house election took place in July 2011; the opposition Puea Thai party defeated the ruling Democrat Party (DP) and holds a majority in the chamber. The next lower house election must be held by July 2015
National government and opposition
Puea Thai won a majority of seats in the lower house at the July 2011 general election but rules in coalition with five smaller parties, namely Chart Thai Pattana, Chart Pattana Puea Pandin, Palung Chon, Mahachon and the New Democrat Party. The DP is the main opposition party. Three other parties—Bhum Jai Thai, Rak Prathet Thai and Rak Santi—are also in opposition
Main political organisations
The main political parties are Puea Thai, the DP, Bhum Jai Thai, Chart Thai Pattana, Chart Pattana Puea Pandin and Palung Chon
Prime minister: Yingluck Shinawatra
Deputy prime ministers:
Yongyuth Wichaidit
Chalerm Ubumrung
Kittirat Na-Ranong
Chumpol Silpa-archa
Plodprasop Suraswadi
Surapong Towikajchikul
Phongthep Thepkanjana
Key ministers
Agriculture & co-operatives: Yukol Lim-laemthong
Commerce: Boonsong Teriyapirom
Defence: Sukampol Suwannathat
Energy: Pongsak Ruktapongpisal
Finance: Kittirat Na-Ranong
Foreign affairs: Surapong Towijakchaikul
Health: Pradit Sintavanarong
Industry: Prasert Boonchaisuk
Interior: Charupong Ruangsuwan
Justice: Pracha Promnok
Labour: Padermchai Sasomsap
Transport: Chadchart Sittipunt
Central bank governor
Prasarn Trairatvorakul
December 06, 2012
Outlook for 2013-17
Review
December 06, 2012
Fact sheet
| Annual data | 2011 | Historical averages (%) | 2007-11 |
| Population (m) | 68.2 | Population growth | 0.9 |
| GDP (US$ bn; market exchange rate) | 345.7 | Real GDP growth | 2.6 |
| GDP (US$ bn; purchasing power parity) | 601.7 | Real domestic demand growth | 2.1 |
| GDP per head (US$; market exchange rate) | 5,069 | Inflation | 2.8 |
| GDP per head (US$; purchasing power parity) | 8,822 | Current-account balance (% of GDP) | 4.2 |
| Exchange rate (av) Bt:US$ | 30.5 | FDI inflows (% of GDP) | 3.0 |
Download the numbers in Excel
Background: Thailand's constitutional monarchy has provided political continuity, but the military has staged frequent coups. The most recent, in 2006, removed the Thai Rak Thai administration led by Thaksin Shinawatra. A general election held in 2007 after more than a year of army rule was won by the pro-Thaksin People Power Party (PPP). A year later the PPP was controversially dissolved by the courts, and the Democrat Party (DP) took office at the head of a six-party coalition. The DP was defeated in the July 2011 election by the latest pro-Thaksin party, Puea Thai, led by the former prime minister's youngest sister, Yingluck Shinawatra. Following the 1997-98 Asian financial crisis, the rate of GDP growth recovered, but the 2008-09 global financial crisis and severe flooding in the country have restricted growth in recent years.
Political structure: Under the 2007 constitution, the House of Representatives (the lower house of parliament) serves a four-year term. The new charter ushered in major changes to the Senate (the upper house), which is no longer a fully elected body of 200 members as under the 1997 constitution but instead has 150 members, of whom 76 are elected and 74 are appointed. In May 2011 the Constitutional Court approved an increase in the number of seats in the lower house from 480 to 500, with 125 of the chamber's members now elected by proportional representation under a party-list system, compared with 80 previously.
Policy issues: Yingluck's administration will pursue populist economic policies modelled on those implemented by Thaksin during his time as prime minister from 2001 to 2006, nicknamed Thaksinomics. A daily minimum wage of Bt300 (US$10) was introduced by the government in seven provinces in April 2012. In an attempt to appease businesses, the Puea Thai administration has lowered the rate of corporate income tax.
Taxation: The government cut the rate of corporate income tax from 30% to 23% at the start of 2012, and it plans to lower the rate further, to 20%, in 2013. Tax concessions are available for companies that list on the stockmarket. Value-added tax (VAT) stands at 7%. Personal income tax rates rise to 37% on annual taxable earnings exceeding Bt4m (around US$130,000).
Foreign trade: Thailand recorded a merchandise trade surplus (fob-fob) of US$23.5bn in 2011, down from US$31.7bn in 2010. The current-account surplus fell to US$11.9bn (equivalent to 3.4% of GDP) in 2011, from US$13.1bn (4.1% of GDP) in the previous year. Manufactured goods now account for around 80% of Thailand's exports. The country relies heavily on oil imports.
| Major exports 2011 | % of total | Major imports 2011 | % of total |
| Machinery | 38.5 | Machinery | 32.6 |
| Food | 13.4 | Minerals, fuels & lubricants | 19.0 |
| Manufactured goods | 13.0 | Manufactured goods | 17.1 |
| Chemicals | 10.3 | Chemicals | 10.4 |
| Leading markets 2011 | % of total | Leading suppliers 2011 | % of total |
| China | 12.3 | Japan | 18.4 |
| Japan | 10.8 | China | 13.4 |
| US | 9.8 | US | 6.3 |
| Hong Kong | 7.4 | UAE | 5.9 |
Download the numbers in Excel
Download text file (csv format)
December 06, 2012
Data and charts: Annual trends charts
December 06, 2012
Thailand: Country outlook
FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT
POLITICAL STABILITY: Yingluck Shinawatra, the youngest sister of Thaksin Shinawatra (a former prime minister who was deposed in a military coup six years ago), completed her first year as prime minister in August. Yingluck's party, Puea Thai, achieved a decisive victory in the July 2011 general election, winning 265 of the 500 seats in the House of Representatives (the lower house of parliament). Although Yingluck's first year passed relatively peacefully, Puea Thai's victory has not ended the power struggle that has destabilised Thailand politically for the past six years. The country's establishment, comprising the palace, the military and high-ranking bureaucrats, toppled Thaksin in 2006 to suppress a popular movement that posed a threat to its traditional hold on power at a time of impending royal succession. Thaksin is still in self-imposed exile but is exerting a strong influence on government from behind the scenes. This was evident in a reshuffle in October 2012, the second since Yingluck took office, which saw a number of the former prime minister's allies return to government after serving five-year bans from politics. Thailand's political environment may thus be primed for further turbulence.
ELECTION WATCH: The four-year term of the lower house will end in July 2015. An election for 76 of the 150 members of the Senate (the upper house) will take place in March 2014. A number of pro-Thaksin governments have been dissolved by the courts in recent years. At present there is no sign of any legal challenges to the legitimacy of the Puea Thai-led government, but it is possible that opposition parties will seek to persuade the Constitutional Court to dissolve the administration. Such a move would trigger renewed instability.
INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS: Puea Thai's election victory has brought an improvement in Thailand's relations with Cambodia, following a series of border clashes between the two countries over the land surrounding the ancient Preah Vihear temple. The previous, Democrat Party-led government suspected the Cambodian prime minister, Hun Sen, of supporting Thaksin, and this complicated attempts to reduce bilateral tensions. In a sign of improving ties, Yingluck visited Cambodia in September 2011, in what she described as the beginning of a new chapter in relations between the two countries. In addition, Cambodia and Thailand have agreed to resume negotiations on the joint development of resource-rich maritime areas in the Gulf of Thailand that are claimed by both countries. International mediation may also succeed in reducing tensions. In mid-2011 the UN's International Court of Justice in The Hague called on both sides to withdraw their forces from a newly declared demilitarised zone, and troops were replaced by border police soon afterwards. However, although the risk of conflict has diminished, further border clashes cannot be ruled out.
POLICY TRENDS: Yingluck's administration is pursuing populist economic policies modelled on those implemented by Thaksin during his time as prime minister in 2001-06, nicknamed Thaksinomics. In line with Puea Thai's pre-election pledge to introduce a daily minimum wage of Bt300 (about US$10), wages were raised by around 40% in April 2012. Outside Bangkok and six other provinces where minimum wages are already relatively high, there will be further increases in wages in 2013. In an attempt to appease businesses, Puea Thai reduced the rate of corporate income tax from 30% to 23% at the start of 2012, and it plans to lower it again, to 20%, next year. The authorities are also spending around US$10bn on improving water management, following the floods that caused extensive damage in central and northern Thailand in late 2011. In another initiative, Puea Thai has revived a scheme whereby the state pays farmers a guaranteed price for unmilled rice of Bt15,000/tonne (a price far above the level in the international market), and has implemented a similar programme for rubber. The populist tone of the government's policies continues to give rise to concern that decisions are being taken on the basis of political considerations above all else.
ECONOMIC GROWTH: The floods in the second half of 2011 caused extensive damage to the Thai economy. In the fourth quarter real GDP shrank by 8.9% year on year, bringing growth in 2011 as a whole to just 0.1%. Owing to post-flood repair work-and in contrast to many other South-east Asian economies-Thailand's rate of economic expansion has accelerated this year. In January-March real GDP grew by only 0.4% year on year, but it was up by 10.8% in quarter-on-quarter, seasonally adjusted terms-the fastest pace of growth on this basis since records began in the early 1990s. The economy continued to recover in April-June, expanding by 4.4% year on year, but growth slowed to 3% in the third quarter. As a result, the Economist Intelligence Unit has revised down its estimate for GDP growth in 2012 as a whole to 5.8%, from 6% previously. This year's rapid pace of expansion will not be sustained in 2013, when we expect real GDP growth to slow to 4.2%. Private consumption will continue to be the main contributor to economic growth next year, reflecting increases in minimum wages and subsidies aimed at supporting disposable incomes. We estimate expansion in gross fixed investment in 2012 at 14%, the fastest pace of growth in around 20 years, owing to the rebuilding of factories and the repair of machinery following the 2011 floods, but investment growth is set to slow sharply in 2013. In 2012 the external sector has weighed on real GDP growth as Thailand shipped in goods for use in reconstruction, but next year net exports will make a positive contribution to economic expansion as import growth slows. Economic expansion will accelerate to 4.7% in 2014 and will then average 5.3% a year in 2015-17.
INFLATION: We estimate that the rate of consumer price inflation slowed to 3.1% on an annual average basis in 2012, from 3.8% in 2011. In 2013 wage pressures are likely to rise, in the formal sector at least, following the government's decision to introduce a national minimum daily wage of Bt300. For Thailand's lowest-earning workers, this represents a wage increase of almost 90%. Despite this, inflation will average only 2.5% in 2013. We expect global oil prices (dated Brent Blend) to fall to an average of US$103.8/barrel next year, from an estimated US$111.9/b in 2012, and the authorities will continue to subsidise the prices of many fuels. The impact of the government's decision to raise minimum pay rates will be cushioned by the relatively large size of Thailand's informal sector and by the supply of cheap migrant labour from Myanmar, Laos and Cambodia. In 2014-17 inflation will average 4% a year.
EXCHANGE RATES: Following rises in the value of the baht of 8.2% in 2010 and 3.9% in 2011, we estimate that the currency depreciated by 1.9% against the US dollar on average in 2012 as the current account swung from surplus to a small deficit. Next year the baht will appreciate by 2.2% on average, reflecting Thailand's relatively rapid pace of economic growth and the return of the current account to surplus. In 2014-17 the currency will appreciate by 0.6% a year on average against the US dollar. The Bank of Thailand (the central bank) will intervene in the currency markets to prevent exchange-rate volatility and may introduce further measures to deter currency speculation, but it is not expected to attempt to reverse market-driven trends in the baht's value. The currency will remain vulnerable to sudden swings in investor sentiment towards emerging markets, as occurred in September 2011, when the baht weakened by 3.7% against the US dollar in a single month owing to concerns triggered by the sovereign debt crisis in the euro zone.
EXTERNAL SECTOR: Owing to a large fall in the merchandise trade surplus, we estimate that Thailand's current account moved into deficit for the first time in six years in 2012. The country's main export markets have grown weakly, while imports have expanded strongly as manufacturing firms have shipped in equipment to replace that destroyed in last year's floods. In 2013, however, the current account will record a surplus equivalent to 1.6% of GDP, supported by a recovery in the surplus on merchandise trade. In 2014-17 the current-account surplus will average 3.1% of GDP. The services account will remain in deficit throughout the forecast period. Tourism inflows will be vulnerable to any renewed deterioration in the domestic security environment. The income account will continue to post a large deficit, reflecting the repatriation of profits and dividends by foreign-owned firms in Thailand.
December 07, 2012
Country forecast overview: Highlights
Country forecast overview: Key indicators
| Key indicators | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 |
| Real GDP growth (%) | 5.8 | 4.2 | 4.7 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.5 |
| Consumer price inflation (av; %) | 3.1 | 2.5 | 3.2 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 4.3 |
| Budget balance (% of GDP) | -4.0 | -3.6 | -3.0 | -2.7 | -2.8 | -3.0 |
| Current-account balance (% of GDP) | -0.1 | 1.6 | 2.4 | 2.9 | 3.4 | 3.8 |
| Commercial banks' prime rate (av; %) | 7.1 | 7.2 | 7.4 | 7.7 | 7.7 | 7.8 |
| Exchange rate Bt:US$ (av) | 31.1 | 30.4 | 30.1 | 30.0 | 29.8 | 29.7 |
| Exchange rate Bt:¥100 (av) | 39.2 | 36.8 | 34.7 | 33.7 | 32.4 | 32.5 |
Download the numbers in Excel
Download text file (csv format)
December 06, 2012
Total area
514,000 sq km
Population
67.8m (IMF estimate, mid-2009)
Main provinces
Population in millions (local administration departments, December 2005)
Bangkok (Metropolitan; capital): 5.66
Chiang Mai: 1.65
Nakhon Ratchasima: 2.55
Udon Thani: 1.52
Ubon Ratchathani: 1.77
Nakorn Srithammarat: 1.50
A total of 12 other provinces have populations above 1m
Climate
Subtropical
Weather in Bangkok (altitude 2 metres)
Hottest month, April, 35-40°C; coldest month, December, 20-31°C; driest months, January-March, no rain; wettest month in central and northern regions is September, with 305 mm average rainfall, and in the south it is December, with 400 mm average rainfall
Language
Thai
Weights and measures
The metric system is officially used. For local dealings, traditional units are used:
1 pikul = 60 kg
1 wah = 2 metres
1 rai = 1,600 sq metres
1 tang = 20 litres
1 tical or baht (jeweller's measure) = 15.24 grams
Currency
Baht (Bt); Bt1 = 100 satang. Average exchange rates in 2011: Bt30.5:US$1; Bt38.3:¥100
Time
7 hours ahead of GMT
Fiscal year
October 1st-September 30th
Public holidays
January 2nd (New Year's Day); March 7th (Makhabuja—regulated by Buddhist calendar); April 6th (Chakri Day); April 13th-16th (Songkran Festival); May 1st (Labour Day); May 7th (Coronation Day); June 4th (Visakhabuja—regulated by Buddhist calendar); August 2nd (beginning of Buddhist Lent—regulated by Buddhist calendar); August 13th (Mother's Day—the queen's birthday); October 23rd (Chulalongkorn Day); December 5th (Father's Day—the king's birthday); December 10th (Constitution Day); December 31st (New Year's Eve)
March 16, 2012