Chad

Politics:

• Analysis

  Chad politics: Quick View - Amended constitution will strengthen the execut

  Event

  Chad's National Assembly has approved a proposal put forward by the ruling party, Mouvement patriotique du salut (MPS), to modify the constitution.

  Analysis

  Two of the six article changes, which were approved by a large majority on January 9th but still need to be discussed by the government before final adoption, are particularly controversial. They provoked a heated debate in the National Assembly and about 20 opposition members of parliament left the room in protest. Chadian human rights and civil society organisations subsequently described the changes as an attempt to set up a dictatorship. Under the amended constitution, the president of the republic would be allowed to hold positions within political parties. Furthermore, protection for judges against interference from and dismissal by the executive arm of government would be removed.

  In essence, these constitutional amendments would give Chad's president, Idriss Deby, the opportunity to further extend his control of the MPS and state institutions. There is a real possibility that Mr Deby will now become the president of the MPS. Some senior judges also risk losing their jobs or coming under increasing pressure from the executive.

  Although these changes are likely to result in a greater concentration of power, they will not fundamentally affect our political forecast. Mr Deby, who has been at the helm since 1990, already dominates the political system. His presidential powers are extensive, and Chad is close to being a one-party state. The country ranked 166th out of 167 countries worldwide in the Economist Intelligence Unit's 2011 democracy index, with very low scores for electoral process and political participation. The constitution, which dates back from 1996, was modified in 2005, to remove the limit on the number of terms a president can serve, thereby clearing the way for Mr Deby to stand again for president in 2006 and 2011, and he has shown no sign of wanting to give up his position before the next presidential election, which is due in 2016. Although Mr Deby's growing authoritarianism could stir discontent, limited channels of expression will prevent such opposition from destabilising the president's position.

  January 29, 2013

• Background

  Chad: Constitution and institutions

  The constitution is revised

  Under the 1996 constitution the government is dominated by a strong executive branch, which has effective control over the judiciary and regional administration. The 155-seat National Assembly, whose members are elected by direct universal suffrage, remains theoretically the sole legislative body. The prime minister, appointed by the president, officially nominates the government. A revision to the electoral law, passed in 2000, gave northern and eastern electoral districts—traditional strongholds of the MPS—disproportionate representation in relation to their share of the population. It also placed the independent electoral commission under government control, as the government appoints 25 of its 31 members. The president has used these measures to ensure executive dominance over the National Assembly. In June 2005 a referendum approved significant changes to the 1996 constitution. These revisions included:

  • the removal of the limit of two five-year terms for the president;
  • the removal of the age limit of 70 for presidential candidates;
  • the abolition of the Senate (which was established in the constitution but never formed) and its replacement with an Economic, Social and Cultural Council, whose members would be nominated by the president; and
  • the stipulation that future constitutional revisions should be a presidential prerogative.

  Mr Deby Itno denied that the amendments were proposed to allow him to pursue a third term in office, claiming that they were needed to update obsolete provisions in the 1996 constitution. However, in addition to allowing him to be a candidate in the 2006 presidential election, the revisions enable Mr Deby Itno to further centralise the political decision-making processes around the presidency. With a hand-picked Economic, Social and Cultural Council and a National Assembly in which the ruling party, the MPS, holds a vast majority, Mr Deby Itno essentially has complete domination of the political system.

  June 20, 2007

• Structure

  Chad: Political structure

  Official name

  République du Tchad

  Form of state

  Unitary republic

  Legal system

  Based on the Napoleonic Code; the 1989 constitution was suspended in December 1990; a new constitution was adopted by referendum in April 1996; amended in June 2005 and in January 2013 (the latest revision has not been signed off by the president yet)

  National legislature

  National Assembly, with 188 members; elected by universal suffrage

  National elections

  A legislative election was held on February 13th 2011; a presidential poll was held on April 25th 2011; the next elections are due in 2016

  Head of state

  President; re-elected by universal suffrage in April 2011

  National government

  The prime minister and Council of Ministers

  Main political parties

  Mouvement patriotique du salut (MPS; the ruling party); Fédération action pour la République (FAR); Rassemblement national pour la démocratie au Tchad (RNDT)-le Réveil; Rassemblement pour la démocratie et le progrès (RDP); Action pour le renouveau et la démocratie (ARD); Union pour la démocratie et la République (UDR); Parti pour la liberté et le développement (PLD); Alliance tchadienne pour la démocratie et le développement (ATD)

  Key ministers

  President: Idriss Déby

  Prime minister: Joseph Djimrangar Dadnadji

  Advisor to the presidency: Beyom Malo Adrien

  Agriculture & irrigation: Dangde Laoubele Damaye

  Communications & government spokesperson: Hassane Sylla Bakari

  Defence & veterans' affairs: Benaindo Tatola

  Finance & budget: Atteib Doutoum

  Foreign affairs & African integration: Moussa Faki Mahamat

  Good governance: Hinsou Hara

  Health: Ahmed Djidda Mahamat

  Infrastructure & equipment: Gata Ngoulou

  Interior & public security: Ali Mahamat Zene Ali Fadel

  Justice, public sanitation & good governance: Abdoulaye Sabre Fadoul

  Mines & geology: Oumar Adoum Sini

  Oil & energy: Djerassem Le Bemadjiel

  Planning, economy & international co-operation: Issa Ali Taher

  Post & new information technologies: Benaiwa Djibergui Rosine Amane

  Primary education & alphabetisation: Hassan Tchonai

  Tourism & crafts: Abderahim Younous Ali

  Town and country planning & decentralisation: Yokabdjim Mandigui

  Trade & industry: Hamid Mahamat Dahalop

  Transport & civil aviation: Dilo Adoum

  Governor of Banque des Etats de l'Afrique centrale

  Lucas Abaga Nchama

  March 19, 2013

Economy:

• Background

  Chad: Education

  Chad is among the world's least-developed countries

  Development of Chad's public services has been hindered by chronic political instability, poor infrastructure and limited financial resources. However, although Chad's social indicators are low even by Sub-Saharan standards, gradual progress has been achieved in developing infrastructure and improving basic services. Education and healthcare are still hampered by shortages of qualified personnel and problems of access in rural areas, where the population is sparsely distributed. It is hoped that the implementation of Chad's oil revenue management programme, which focuses on poverty reduction and the improvement of social services, will improve health and education standards (see The economy: Economic policy). The UNDP's human development index shows that there has been some progress since the 1970s, but Chad remains among the least-developed countries in the world, ranking 171st out of 177 countries surveyed in 2006. This places it between Ethiopia and the Central African Republic (CAR).

  Education is deficient

  Educational facilities at primary and secondary level remain inadequate and mainly concentrated in the non-Islamic south. According to the World Bank's 2006 African Development Indicators, adult literacy in 2004 was just 38%. Primary and secondary gross enrolment rates are low, standing at 71% and 15% respectively. The national university has about 1,500 students. Advanced training is provided by a teacher-training college, the Ecole nationale d'administration, and several private technical schools in N'Djamena. In 2003 there were 3,653 primary schools, 209 junior high schools and 36 higher secondary schools.

  June 20, 2007

• Structure

  Chad: Economic structure

  Economic structure: Annual indicators

  	2008a	2009a	2010a	2011a	2012b
  GDP at market prices (CFAfr bn)	3,744.0	3,344.0	4,230.0	4,476.0	5,589.8
  GDP (US$ bn)	8.4	7.1	8.5	9.5	10.9
  Real GDP growth (%)	-0.4	-1.2	13.0	3.1	6.2
  Consumer price inflation (av; %)	10.3	10.0	-2.1	-4.9	10.2a
  Population (m)	10.7b	10.9b	11.2b	11.5b	11.8
  Exports of goods fob (US$ m)	4,232b	2,876b	3,593b	4,803b	4,907
  Imports of goods fob (US$ m)	-1,976b	-2,573b	-3,580b	-3,116b	-3,190
  Current-account balance (US$ m)	-1,146b	-1,218b	-2,958b	-1,323b	-1,457
  Foreign-exchange reserves excl gold (US$ m)	1,345	617	632	951	1,076
  Exchange rate (av) CFAfr:US$	447.8	472.2	495.3	471.9	510.5a
  a Actual. b The Economist Intelligence Unit estimates.

  Download the numbers in Excel

  Origins of gross domestic product 2011a		% of total	Components of gross domestic product 2010b		% of total
  Primary sector		52.2	Private consumption		76.1
  Secondary sector		9.0	Government consumption		13.2
  Tertiary sector		38.8	Gross domestic investment		31.8
  			Exports of goods & services		39.0
  			Imports of goods & services		-61.0
  Principal exports 2011c		CFAfr bn	Principal imports 2011c		CFAfr bn
  Oil		1,836.1	Oil sector		460.5
  Cattle		115.6	Non-oil sector		468.9
  Cotton		33.2	Public sector		177.9
  Main destinations of exports 2011d		% of total	Main origins of imports 2011d		% of total
  US		83.2	Cameroon		16.9
  China		6.8	France		15.7
  France		5.6	China		10.7
  Netherlands		1.1	Finland		6.5
  Germany		0.5	Sweden		6.0
  a The Economist Intelligence Unit estimates. b World Bank World Development Indicators. c Banque des Etats de l'Afrique centrale official estimates. d Drawn from partners' trade returns, subject to a wide margin of error.

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  Download text file (csv format)

  March 19, 2013

• Outlook

  Chad: Country outlook

  Chad: Country outlook

  FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT

  OVERVIEW: Chad's political situation is set to remain largely stable over the 2013-14 forecast period. The president, Idriss Déby, has a large majority in the National Assembly and has consolidated his power over the political system. The risk of insecurity has increased as a result of Chad's military intervention in Mali, amid ongoing religious and social tensions at home and a regional spread of Islamist activism. The Economist Intelligence Unit does not expect the government to make significant progress on fiscal reform over the forecast period, as it has persistently demonstrated that it lacks the incentive to do so. We forecast a real GDP growth rate of 4% in 2013 owing to lower oil output at the country's Doba fields. New oil developments will drive an acceleration of economic growth to 5% in 2014. The current-account deficit is set to widen from 13.3% of GDP in 2012 to 14.1% of GDP in 2013, before narrowing back to 13.5% of GDP in 2014, in line with fluctuations in oil output and prices.

  DOMESTIC POLITICS: Mr Déby, who has been in power since 1990 and was re-elected comfortably in April 2011, has a large pro-government majority in the Assembly. The latest constitutional revision, which was passed by parliament in January 2013 but still awaits promulgation, will remove Supreme Court judges' security of tenure and will enable the president to hold a position within a political party. Mr Déby will maintain his policy of stifling dissent and concentrating power in the hands of a small number of people. His frequent and arbitrary sackings in the administration, as illustrated by the first reshuffle of the cabinet of the prime minister, Joseph Djimrangar Dadnadji, only a few days after its establishment, will help him to prevent the emergence of rivals within the ruling Mouvement patriotique du salut. The opposition is weak and usually unable to rally much popular support. It will seek to capitalise on labour and wage disputes between the government and Chad's powerful unions, but it is unlikely to be able to take advantage of this, given its divisions and poor co-ordination. Our 2012 democracy index ranks Chad 165th of 167 countries, putting it third from bottom globally and among the 50 countries considered to be governed by authoritarian regimes. The authorities increased fuel retail prices in November 2012, but the lingering possibility of cost-of-living protests will limit their ability to implement any economic reforms that entail substantial reductions in government subsidies for food and fuel products. Mr Déby broadly commands the support of the army, but there is a persistent danger of his being toppled in a palace coup. It remains possible that senior members of the president's inner circle will defect, particularly if allies believe themselves to have been passed over for government posts. There is also potential for inter-ethnic hostility, especially if Mr Déby's Zaghawa ethnic group is seen to receive preferential access to state services and funds. These ethnic rivalries, together with the country's extremely low population density and the lack of a large and frustrated middle class, suggest that a popular uprising similar to those seen recently in North Africa is unlikely. A growing security concern will arise from Chad's foreign military operations in the Central African Republic (CAR) and Mali. Given the army's reduced domestic firepower, lingering religious tensions and the rapid regional spread of Islamist activism, Chad will be vulnerable to unrest, especially around its porous borders.

  INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS: The rapprochement with Sudan is expected to hold in 2013-14 as both sides become more interested in enhancing crossborder transport infrastructure, with the aim of developing the trade route between Chad and the Red Sea. Chad's relations with and influence on the CAR will remain strong, bolstered by the Chadian army's intervention in December 2012 against a rebel insurgency that aimed to overthrow the CAR president, François Bozizé. Mr Déby suggested in early 2013 that a regional security force consisting predominantly of around 500 Chadian soldiers would remain deployed until 2014. Chad will struggle to build the same warm ties with the current Libyan regime as those it enjoyed with the country's former dictator, Colonel Muammar Qadhafi. In any event, the new Libyan government is likely to review the extensive state investments in Chad and may cancel some of them. As the Chadian government will work hard to limit the fall in investment, we expect the strain on relations between the two countries to subside over the forecast period. Chad's effective contribution to the military intervention aimed at quelling an Islamist insurgency in Northern Mali, spearheaded by France, will boost its international influence. In particular, it is likely to bolster relations with France, which have been rather frosty of late, partly because of discord over human rights-a major theme in the new French government's relations with Africa. The two countries' hitherto successful co-operation in Mali may weigh on decisions regarding the future of France's decades-long military presence in Chad, currently around 1,000 troops. Prolonged instability in the Sahel may rekindle France's interest in maintaining a regional military base. Likewise, Chad's commitment in the fight against regional terrorism will ensure strong co-operation with the US. A small counter-terrorism programme already exists and could soon be enlarged, especially if a regional terrorist group, al-Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb, is deemed to be active in the country. The US also has a major stake in Chad's oil industry and is set to remain by far the largest market for Chadian oil exports. China will remain a leading player in helping to sustain Chad's declining oil sector and other areas of the economy, and is also expected to extend soft loans to finance the fiscal deficit.

  POLICY TRENDS: In the absence of a staff-monitored programme, the IMF assesses Chad's economic and policy performance through yearly Article IV consultations. The latest Fund mission to Chad, in September 2012, once again highlighted that issues regarding fiscal policy remain unaddressed. There are concerns over the direction, efficiency and management of public spending, as well as the government's overdependence on oil revenue. The Fund has recommended that the government improve public expenditure management as well as non-oil revenue collection. However, we do not expect this to be acted upon strongly during the forecast period, as the government has demonstrated a lack of incentive to reform while oil revenue remains reasonably strong. Although these inflows are set to remain highly volatile, they will not fall sufficiently to alter the government's current lack of political will. Despite ranking next-to-bottom in the 2013 edition of the World Bank's Doing Business report, Chad does not seem intent on trying to improve the business environment, which we expect to remain unfavourable. While a new agreement for a Fund staff-monitored programme during the forecast period is not impossible, it is far from being assured owing to the authorities' lack of political will. From a surplus in 2011, the fiscal account reverted to a deficit in 2012 as a result of below-target non-oil revenue collection and extra-budgetary spending, on areas including defence and subsidies for public enterprises. Overall, we estimate that the budget deficit came in at 2.3% of GDP. These trends are set to continue in 2013-14, as public expenditure management remains weak and subsidies continue to weigh on the fiscal balance. Although the country may end up receiving financial support for it, Chad's deployment of troops to Mali will exert additional strain on the fiscal accounts. The government may also end up paying substantial salary arrears to public-sector workers. As a result, we now expect the deficit to widen to 3.7% of GDP in 2013 and 3.9% of GDP in 2014. This forecast remains subject to substantial changes, as government revenue, around two-thirds of which comes from oil, is strongly influenced by international oil prices. The government is likely to turn to China and to domestic borrowing to cover these shortfalls.

  ECONOMIC GROWTH: Although we expect government spending on infrastructure to fall well short of targets, it will continue to rise in 2013-14, boosting the contribution made to growth by construction, especially through road building. Oil production from the Doba fields, estimated at around 105,000 barrels/day during the first half of 2012, is expected to dwindle further in 2013-14, as the country's challenging geology has made it increasingly difficult to extract oil. Meanwhile, the China National Petroleum Corporation is continuing its exploration and construction programme in the Ronier field in the Bongor basin, north of Doba, which is expected to yield 60,000 b/d once it reaches full capacity (although this figure is speculative and production will remain at or below the field's current capacity, estimated at 20,000 b/d, throughout the forecast period). Canada-based Griffiths Energy hopes to kick off commercial production at its Mangara fields in late 2013; we expect output to reach significant levels from 2014 onward. Therefore, we provisionally forecast a drop in the country's total oil output in 2013, before a return to growth in 2014. Chad's manufacturing sector-the output of which comprises basic goods such as soap, cigarettes, sugar and some textiles-will remain small. However, a cement factory with an annual capacity of 200,000 tonnes opened in February 2012 and will boost the industrial contribution to growth. After some disruption early in 2012, Chad's new oil refinery (Djermaya, which opened in 2011) is likely to operate continuously, while its on-site 20-mw electricity plant will come on stream in 2013, further supporting industrial activity. Nevertheless, constraints on larger-scale industrialisation, including small market size, low credit availability and the lack of skilled labour and infrastructure, will persist. Services, which account for around 40% of economic output (including government services), will experience some growth in 2013-14, led by telecommunications and banking. Overall, we expect real GDP growth to moderate from 6.2% in 2012 to 4% in 2013, before accelerating to 5% in 2014, driven by a recovery in the oil sector. However, given the importance to GDP of rain-fed agriculture-which includes livestock, forestry and fishing and is highly vulnerable to climatic fluctuations-our forecasts remain tentative.

  EXTERNAL ACCOUNT: Trends in oil production and prices will remain crucial for the current account during the forecast period. After it firmed to US$112/barrel in 2012, we expect the price of Brent Blend to drop to US$104.5/b in 2013 and to nudge back up to US$104.8/b in 2014. Export volumes are likely to drop slightly in 2013 before recovering in 2014 as some new wells come on stream. Assuming average weather conditions, cotton exports will increase moderately as prices recover from a 40% fall in 2012 and output improves. If rains are plentiful, we expect livestock exports to continue their improvement in 2013 and 2014. Total exports will decline from US$4.9bn in 2012 to US$4.5bn in 2013, before increasing to US$4.8bn in 2014. Imports are driven by investment in the oil sector and were estimated at US$3.2bn in 2012. They are likely to increase only slowly in 2013-14, owing to the domestic production of cement and refined oil, as well as lower import prices and (at least in 2013) a stronger currency. We therefore forecast an import bill of US$3.3bn in 2013 and US$3.4bn in 2014. The services deficit will widen gently between 2012 and 2014, from US$2.7bn to US$2.9bn, in line with the growth in imports. We expect the income deficit, driven mainly by profit repatriation by oil companies, to move in line with oil production and prices, causing a slight narrowing over the forecast period-especially in 2013, when oil prices and output are expected to ease. The current transfers surplus will increase slightly to an average of US$900m during the forecast period, following movements in remittances from workers in both Western and neighbouring countries. Overall, we forecast the current-account deficit to widen from 13.3% of GDP in 2012 to 14.1% of GDP in 2013, before narrowing back to 13.5% of GDP in 2014. The deficit will be financed by borrowing from China and by investments from the foreign parent companies of local oil firms.

  March 18, 2013

View detailed map

Country Briefing

Land area

1,284,000 sq km

Population

12.1m (2012 World Gazetteer estimate)

Main towns

Population in 2012 (World Gazetteer estimates; '000)

N'Djamena (capital): 1,092

Moundou: 137

Sarh: 103

Abéché: 76

Climate

Tropical in the south, semi-arid in the Sahelian belt, and desert and semi-desert in the north

Weather in N'Djamena (altitude 295 metres)

Hottest month, April 23-42°C; coolest month, December, 14-33°C; driest months, November-March, 0 mm average rainfall; wettest month, August, 320 mm average rainfall

Languages

French and Chadian Arabic (Tourkou) are the official languages; over 100 local languages, including Sara derivatives, are also widely spoken

Measures

Metric system

Currency

CFA franc

Time

1 hour ahead of GMT

Public holidays

Fixed holidays: January 1st (New Year's Day), May 1st (Labour Day), August 11th (Independence Day), November 1st (All Saints' Day), November 28th (Republic Day), December 1st (Freedom and Democracy Day), December 25th (Christmas)

Moveable holidays (according to Christian and Muslim calendars): Eid al-Adha, El am Hejir (New Year), Mawlid al-Nabi (birth of the Prophet), Eid al-Fitr (end of Ramadan), Easter

March 01, 2012