Suriname

Politics:

• Analysis

  Suriname politics: Quick View - The trial of President Bouterse has stalled

  Event

  The trial of the president, Desire Bouterse, and 24 others on charges related to the unlawful killing of 15 members of the then opposition in December 1982 has stalled. After an extended adjournment, a military tribunal failed to reach a decision on the future of the case in mid-December and has again referred a decision to a constitutional court, which has yet to be created.

  Analysis

  Legal processes in the case against Mr Bouterse arising from his period as military dictator of Suriname (1980-87) have been proceeding very slowly since trial proceedings began in November 2007. Meanwhile, amnesty legislation passed by Suriname's National Assembly on April 4th 2012 extended amnesty to crimes committed "in the context of the defence of the State", which would appear to include the 1982 killings.

  At the request of the prosecution, the presiding judge has referred the case to be heard by a constitutional court to decide if the amnesty law should be applied retroactively to a case already in progress. However, although Suriname's 1987 constitution provides for such a court, it has never been established by the National Assembly. On June 4th the public prosecutor called for the expeditious establishment of the court, but while the government insists that preparations have advanced, the creation of the court has yet to be discussed by the legislature. It seems clear that the governing coalition will resist introducing legislation to establish a constitutional court unless it can guarantee it would uphold the amnesty in favour of Mr Bouterse.

  Mr Bouterse was also convicted in absentia in the Netherlands to 11 years in prison for trafficking cocaine in July 1999. He has always denied the charge, claiming that the government's star witness had been bribed. Despite the conviction and the issue of an international warrant for his arrest in 1999, he has remained free in Suriname. However, his son, Dino Bouterse, was sentenced in 2005 to eight years imprisonment for international drug- and arms-trafficking.

  December 18, 2012

• Background

  Suriname: Key figures

  Ronald Venetiaan

  Assumed the presidency for a third (and second consecutive) term in August 2005 and is expected to step down after the next election in 2010. He served as president in 1991-96, when he tackled the military by firing the commander-in-chief, Lieutenant-Colonel Desi Bouterse, and all those who were part of his military dictatorship. He also implemented a structural adjustment programme without donor support during his first term in office. During his second term in 2000-05, he implemented a strict stabilisation programme to stabilise the exchange rate and lower inflation. He also started investigations into alleged criminal and fraudulent conduct by members of the opposition. Born in 1936 and originally a mathematics lecturer by profession, he was minister of education from 1973 to 1980 and from 1987 to 1990. He has been chairman of the Nationale Partij Suriname since 1993.

  Desi Delano Bouterse

  Leader of the opposition Nationale Democratische Partij (NDP), Mr Bouterse was one of the 16 sergeant-majors who staged a successful coup in 1980. As a result of domestic pressure and a war in the interior, Mr Bouterse had to grant free elections in 1987. In 1990 he staged a bloodless coup (popularly known as the "telephone coup" or the "Christmas Eve coup"), but again had to grant free elections in 1991. During his military regime, 15 people, including intellectuals, union leaders and journalists, were executed (in what are known as the December 1982 murders); a judicial enquiry completed in December 2004 led to his trial for murder, which was in progress in late 2008. He was also convicted in absentia in the Netherlands on charges of drug-trafficking in 2000. His half-brother, Eric, and his son, Dino, have both received prison sentences for drug-related offences.

  Jules Wijdenbosch

  An opposition member in the National Assembly, investigated but never charged after losing office for corruption while president (1996-2000). As president, he had to call a general election one year early as a wave of strikes and protests at the deteriorating state of the economy brought the government to its knees. Mr Wijdenbosch joined the military regime in 1984 and held various offices, including those of minister and prime minister. After the 1990 “telephone coup”, he became vice-president in the Kraag-Wijdenbosch government.

  December 01, 2008

• Structure

  Suriname: Political structure

  Official name

  Republic of Suriname

  Form of government

  Presidential, based on the 1987 constitution

  The executive

  Cabinet of ministers appointed and headed by the president

  National legislature

  Unicameral 51-seat National Assembly elected for a five-year term by direct universal suffrage

  Legal system

  Three cantonal courts headed by a Court of Justice, the six members of which are appointed for life

  National elections

  Last elections May 25th 2010; next national legislative election due on May 25th 2015 (indirect presidential election by the legislature follows once a new National Assembly has been sworn in)

  National government

  The coalition of the Mega Combinatie (21 seats), Volksalliantie (six seats) and the A-Combinatie (three seats) holds 30 of the 51 seats in the National Assembly

  Main political organisations

  Government: Mega Combinatie (MC), a coalition consisting of Nationale Democratische Partij (NDP), Kerukanan Tulodo Pratanan Ingil (KTPI) and Progressieve Arbeiders en Landbouwers Unie (PALU); A-Combinatie (AC), a coalition of Algemene Bevrijdings en Ontwikkeling Partij (ABOP) and Seeka; and Volksalliantie (VA), a coalition of Pertjajah Luhur (PL), Pendawa Lima, Partij Pembangunan Rakjat Suriname (PPRS), Democraten van de 21ste Eeuw (D21), Progressieve Politieke Partij (PPP), Broederschap en Eenheid in Politiek (BEP), Nationale Partij voor Leiderschap en Ontwikkeling (NPLO), Trefpunt 2000 and Middenblok, which in turn consists of Progressieve Surinaamse Volkspartij (PSV) and Unie van Progressieve Surinamers (UPS)

  Opposition: Nieuw Front voor Democratie en Ontwikkeling (NF), a coalition of Nationale Partij Suriname (NPS), Vooruitstrevende Hervormings Partij (VHP), Surinaamse Partij van de Arbeid (SPA) and Democratisch Alternatief '91 (DA-91); Nieuw Suriname (NS); Partij voor Democratie en Ontwikkeling in Eenheid (DOE)

  Key ministers

  President: Desiré Delano Bouterse (MC-NDP)

  Vice-president: Robert Ameerali (AC-ABOP)

  Agriculture & fisheries: Hendrik Setrowidjojo (MC-PL)

  Defence: Lamuré Latour (MC-NDP)

  Education: Raymond Sapoen (MC-PL)

  Finance: Adelien Wijnerman (NDP)

  Foreign affairs: Winston Lackin MC-NDP)

  Health: Celcius Waterberg (AC-BEP)

  Interior: Soewarto Moestadja (MC-PL)

  Justice & the police: Martin Misiedjan (AC-ABOP)

  Labour, technology & environment: Ginardo Kromosoeto (MC-NDP)

  Land management & forestry: Simon Martosatiman (KTPI)

  Natural resources: Jim Hok (MC-PALU)

  Public works: Ramon Abrahams (MC-NDP)

  Regional development: Linus Diko (AC-BEP)

  Social affairs & housing: Alice Amafo (AC-ABOP)

  Sport & youth affairs: Paul Abena (AC-Seeka)

  Trade & industry: Michael Miskin (Independent)

  Transport, communications & tourism: Falisie Pinas (AC-ABOP)

  Central Bank president

  Gilmore Hoefdraad (Independent)

  January 18, 2013

Economy:

• Background

  Suriname: Economic background

  Real gross domestic product by sector
  (as a % share of GDP)
  	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006
  Agriculture and fisheries	6.7	6.4	5.2	4.9	4.9
  Manufacturing	13.5	12.7	15.0	18.3	18.9
  Mining & quarrying	6.9	6.8	8.4	8.9	8.7
  Transport & communications	7.8	7.4	7.2	6.8	6.5
  Electricity, water & gas	5.8	5.6	5.5	5.1	4.6
  Construction	2.4	2.6	2.9	3.1	3.4
  Commerce	8.1	10.3	9.8	10.6	10.1
  Property	5.9	5.5	5.8	5.8	6.1
  Financial intermediation	5.5	5.1	5.5	6.0	5.5
  Public administration & social services	13.9	11.8	10.5	9.9	9.5
  Informal sector	13.0	14.1	14.3	14.0	13.4
  Source: Algemeen Bureau voor de Statistiek .

  Download text file (csv format)

  December 01, 2008

• Structure

  Suriname: Economic structure

  Economic structure: Annual indicators

  	2008a	2009a	2010a	2011a	2012b
  GDP at 1990 prices (Sr$ m)	8,396	8,650	9,003	9,381	9,803
  GDP at market prices (US$ m)	3,527	3,884	4,342	2,701	2,982
  Real GDP growth (%)	4.2	3.0	4.1	4.2	4.5
  Consumer price inflation (av; %)	14.7	-0.1	6.9	17.7	6.0
  Population ('000)	515	520	525	529	532
  Exports of goods fob (US$ m)	1,708	1,404	2,084	2,467	2,927
  Imports of goods fob (US$ m)	-1,350	-1,296	-1,398	-1,679	-1,838
  Current-account balance (US$ m)	353	210	653	251	577
  Foreign-exchange reserves excl gold (US$ m)	562	597	602	708	870
  Total external debt (US$ m)	552.1	602.1	806.1	869.0	905.0
  Official exchange rate (year-end) Sr$:US$	2.75	2.75	2.75	3.30	3.30a
  a Actual. b Economist Intelligence Unit estimates.

  Download the numbers in Excel

  Origins of gross domestic product 2010	% of total	Components of gross domestic product 2007	% of total
  Manufacturing	18.1	Private consumption	51.5
  Informal sector	15.4	Government consumption	11.6
  Mining	11.1	Fixed investment	31.6
  Commerce	10.3	Exports of goods & services	63.4
  Government	10.2	Imports of goods & services	58.1
  Agriculture, forestry & fishing	4.8	GDP at market prices	100
  GDP at factor cost incl others	100
  Principal exports 2010	US$ m	Principal imports 2010	US$ m
  Alumina	410.1	Machinery & transport equipment	361.422
  Gold	1,050.8	Manufactured goods	193.752
  Crude oil	179.6	Fuels & lubricants	163.944
  Shrimp & fish	34.3	Food & live animals	130.41
  Main destinations of exports 2011	% of total	Main origins of imports 2011	% of total
  US	24.4	US	28.0
  Canada	19.9	Netherlands	16.8
  Belgium	17.5	UAE	9.2
  UAE	9.1	China	8.8

  Download the numbers in Excel

  Download text file (csv format)

  January 18, 2013

• Outlook

  Suriname: Country outlook

  Suriname: Country outlook

  FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT

  OVERVIEW: The ruling coalition led by a former military dictator, Desiré "Desi" Bouterse, holds a comfortable nine-seat legislative majority and the government will be able to advance its legislative reform programme unopposed. Legal action taken against Mr Bouterse relating to his military dictatorship of Suriname (1980-87) has stalled and is unlikely to advance. This will aid political stability, but will continue to sully the president's reputation. International concern over Mr Bouterse's conviction in absentia in the Netherlands on drug-trafficking charges will prove an obstacle to acquiring development finance from bilateral sources. Fiscal revenue will remain healthy on the back of firm commodity prices, while tax increases, spending cuts and the ending of some subsidies, together with other pending reforms, will gradually restore fiscal health. The devaluation of the exchange rate in 2011, followed by the introduction of a narrow trading band and a growing cushion of foreign reserves, will support currency stability in the 2013-14 forecast period. The economy will continue to grow at above recent trend rates, with real GDP growth averaging 4.5% in 2013-14 on the back of investment in oil, mining and manufacturing. The current account will move into deficit as import demand rebounds and the trade, services and transfers accounts slide into deficit, but an upturn in foreign investment will support an overall balance-of-payments surplus.

  DOMESTIC POLITICS: Mr Bouterse won the presidential election in 2010 and holds a comfortable majority in the National Assembly. Mr Bouterse is in the middle of a five-year term at the head of a broad coalition government, which itself consists of three major coalitions-the Mega Combinatie, the A-Combinatie and the Volksalliantie. The government's majority will facilitate the passage of its legislative programme. However, factional in-fighting and public discontent over reforms to cut public spending could make the coalition vulnerable to dissent and fragmentation as the government moves into the latter half of its term. The hasty passage in April 2012 of an amendment to an amnesty law-aimed at absolving the perpetrators of any crimes committed during Suriname's 1980-92 military rule-favours Mr Bouterse and his allies, but has raised tensions. The law precludes conviction of the president and 24 others accused of involvement in the so-called 1982 December murders of 15 political opposition members. After a lengthy adjournment, the president's trial was finally referred by the military tribunal presiding over the case to the constitutional court in December 2012. The need for a constitutional ruling on the amnesty law will require the constitutional court-which does not yet exist-to be created before the case can be heard. The creation of a constitutional tribunal (an idea that has been debated for decades) will not advance swiftly. Even if a tribunal were to be set up in 2013, which seems unlikely, given a lack of political will to advance the issue, the president would probably have a strong influence over the appointment of its members, which in turn would undermine the chances of a ruling against the amnesty measure, thereby ending the current trial. This would leave the president free to consolidate his hold on power and encourage him to stand for re-election. The amnesty manoeuvre has raised fears of government interference in judicial affairs and concern that Mr Bouterse's reputation will negatively impact on Suriname's ability to attract foreign aid and investment. This is proving divisive for some members of the governing coalition and may benefit the opposition Nieuw Front coalition, which will remain a strong political force and could, at times, frustrate policymaking if it is able to attract disgruntled governing coalition members to break ranks with the government. Aside from the challenge of maintaining its governing alliance, the administration faces important national security problems, including drug-trafficking, money-laundering and illegal gold-mining. Efforts to curtail drug-trafficking and a programme to formalise further the gold-mining sector are producing results. Violent crime will be a less pressing problem than in neighbouring Guyana or the English-speaking Caribbean.

  INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS: The amnesty amendment and subsequent decision by a military tribunal not to proceed with the trial of Mr Bouterse will further isolate the administration at the international level. Already difficult relations, characterised by a lack of foreign support for Mr Bouterse, who has been convicted in absentia in the Netherlands on drug-trafficking charges, will complicate international relations going forward, as Mr Bouterse's ability to travel to the EU is impeded. Concerns remain that Mr Bouterse's leadership could create security risks, including covert support for money-laundering and drug-trafficking. Any such developments would severely erode confidence, damaging external budget financing and development programmes. Mr Bouterse will focus his foreign relations efforts on nearby countries such as Guyana and Venezuela. He will work to shore up international support for his government by strengthening ties within the Caribbean Community. In January 2011, Suriname acceded to the Unión de Naciones Suramericanas (the Union of South American Nations). Suriname is also participating in the Initiative for the Integration of the Regional Infrastructure in South America. Through this, the country hopes to play a role in the development of an East-West link, connecting Venezuela, Guyana, Suriname, French Guiana and Brazil.

  POLICY TRENDS: The government is maintaining fiscal discipline to support macroeconomic stability and this, together with the standing of the independent technocrats who lead the Centrale Bank van Suriname (the Central Bank), will help to retain investor confidence. The government's plans for infrastructure spending were emphasised in the 2012 budget, which provides for the construction of housing for low-income groups, and for repair and building of roads, bridges and state-owned schools. Political controversy over the amnesty law is not expected to hamper political support for these projects. Suriname's low level of indebtedness and stronger recent fiscal revenue performance-with a fiscal surplus of 0.9% of GDP in 2011 and a close to balanced budget estimated for 2012-has enabled it to pay down debt. Total net public and publicly guaranteed debt has fallen from a peak of 19.1% of GDP at end-2011 to an estimated 18.6% of GDP at end-2012 and is expected to decline further to average around 18% of GDP in 2013-14 (against a median of 38% of GDP for the region's economies). Assuming a continued gradual fiscal improvement and the introduction of a new value-added tax in 2013, Suriname could comfortably afford to increase borrowing to finance infrastructure investment. The expected improvement in the fiscal position, together with a more stable monetary environment and closer supervision of the currency markets, should allow a more conducive environment for investment and production. After a marked fiscal deterioration in 2009-10, tax rises in 2011 (including a 70% increase in fuel tax), spending cuts and the elimination of some subsidies, have combined with favourable international commodity prices and a sharp increase in non-tax revenue-mainly in the form of dividend payments from Staatsolie, the state-owned oil company-to stabilise the fiscal accounts. The authorities are planning to pursue a series of reforms to create a sovereign wealth fund, rationalise the budget process and overhaul the tax system. The timely implementation of these reforms would help to reduce policy uncertainty and strengthen the public finances. However, recent stability gains are at risk from demands for salary increases to reinstate earnings lost to inflation, with consumer price increases peaking at an annual rate of 22.6% in April 2011, owing largely to the fuel tax rise. Organised labour unions have the potential to undermine advances on fiscal stability by pressuring for higher wages. The government, backed by the IMF, is to implement further legal and administrative reforms for five state-owned enterprises. It will seek technical assistance from the Inter-American Development Bank and the World Bank to implement a programme to improve the management and governance of public-sector enterprises and reform the tariff structure of major utilities in order to reduce the potential for incurring losses that would rebound negatively on the public accounts. The Economist Intelligence Unit expects some progress as the government appears committed to reforms, which will boost the sustainability of the public finances in the event of adverse external shocks emanating from volatility in prices for hard commodities and oil. We assume that the positive outlook for Suriname's main commodities exports will continue to underpin fiscal revenue growth and that the benefits of recent fiscal reforms will continue to be felt. As long as the government can reach modest wage settlements with public-sector workers and it does not have to lower the fuel tax, we expect it to be able to keep the fiscal accounts close to balance in 2013-14.

  ECONOMIC GROWTH: Revised and improved national accounts data, rebased to 2007, indicate that nominal GDP in 2010 was 20% higher than previously reported. The data suggest that growth accelerated to 4.2% in 2011 and 4.5% in 2012, supported by strong activity in the oil and gold sectors, as well as in public investment. We expect growth to average around 4.5% in 2013-14, owing to a strong performance by the external sector (boosted by mining and energy). The mining sector and hard-commodity prices are the mainstay of Suriname's economic performance; investments in mining (particularly gold) and energy over the next few years will support above-trend growth rates, although earnings will be blunted by a modest weakening of hard-commodity prices in 2013. Export growth, particularly of metals, will help to buoy the economy, despite a tepid global growth outlook. Prospects for gold production are good, with investment and output steadily increasing. This should partly compensate for the uncertain outlook in the bauxite sector, the largest contributor to mining in recent years-ores in eastern Suriname are depleted and the state-owned bauxite firm will continue to import bauxite from Brazil. The government will seek to develop bauxite deposits in western Suriname, but these are unlikely to become productive in 2013-14. The oil industry, which has a drilling programme under way, also has potential to expand modestly. Agriculture is a major employer, but its prospects remain mixed. Prospective investments in palm oil will help to boost employment and exports. The banana industry, which has been restructured, faces strong competition from other Latin American producers as changes to the EU's preferential import-tax regime have undercut its competitive advantage. The rice industry, which remains saddled with heavy debt and which operates with a high cost base, will continue to struggle.

  EXTERNAL ACCOUNT: The external sector will be supported by the improving outlook for foreign direct investment (FDI) in 2013-14. However, the lack of any new bauxite output in the short term, owing to the time lag involved in exploring and developing new sources of supply, will weigh on export earnings growth. A resurgence in import growth on the back of pent-up domestic demand and foreign investment will push the trade balance firmly into deficit in 2013-14. Combined with a recent erosion of the surpluses on the services, current transfers and income accounts, the current account will slide deeper into deficit in 2013-14. However, an upsurge in FDI flows to an annual average of above US$500m in 2013-14 will meet financing requirements, and the balance-of-payments position will stay positive with continued accumulation of international reserves. Net reserves topped US$1bn at the end of 2012, equivalent to around five months of import cover.

  January 21, 2013

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Country Briefing

Land area

163,820 sq km, with lowlands, savannah and interior highlands

Population

534,000 (UN estimate, July 2012)

Main regions

Population in 2004 (national census data):

Paramaribo (capital & outskirts): 243,640

Wanica: 86,072

Sipaliwini & Brokopondo: 41,501

Nickerie & Coronie: 39,420

Commewijne: 24,657

Climate

Tropical

Weather in Paramaribo (altitude 4 metres)

Hottest months, September and October, 23-33o C; coldest month, February, 22-29o C (average daily minimum and maximum); driest month, October, 76 mm average rainfall; wettest month, May, 310 mm average rainfall

Languages

Dutch; Sranan Tongo, Sarnami-Hindi, Suriname-Javanese, English, Portuguese, Chinese, Maroon and Amerindian languages are also spoken

Measures

Metric system

Currency

Suriname dollar (Sr$) = 100 cents (one Suriname dollar replaced 1,000 Suriname guilders in January 2004)

Time

3 hours behind GMT

Public holidays

January 1st; Holi Phagwa; Good Friday and Easter Monday; May 1st; July 1st; November 25th; Id-Ul-Fitr; December 25th and 26th; plus other Hindu and Muslim religious holidays

January 18, 2013