Somalia

Politics:

• Analysis

  Somalia politics: Quick View - Al-Shabab renews its offensive in the south

  Event

  Militiamen loyal to Somalia's main Islamist insurgency group, al-Shabab, have captured the capital of the Bakool region, Hoddur, after the town was vacated by Ethiopian and Somali troops.

  Analysis

  Heavily armed al-Shabab fighters swept into Hoddur late on March 17th after Ethiopian and Somali forces, who had been in control of the town's security for a year, abandoned the town earlier in the day. No official reason has been offered for the withdrawal of troops. However, some observers suggest that they were redeployed to strengthen security in the neighbouring Bay regional capital, Baidoa, where 26 members of the federal parliament arrived on March 17th to meet local community leaders and government officials to discuss finance, security and the regional administration.

  The seizure of Hoddur marks al-Shabab's first territorial gain for several months and came a day after the Somali president, Hassan Sheikh Mohammed, told a press conference in the capital, Mogadishu, that the offensive against al-Shabab had been won. Although it will not significantly affect the balance of power in south-central Somalia-which will continue to tilt in favour of the government and its allies-the recapture of Hoddur has highlighted the enormous challenge of maintaining federal control, let alone stability and security, in areas wrested from al-Shabab. The recent relaxation of the UN arms embargo against Somalia should help in this respect, by making it easier for the government to equip the army. More crucially, the African Union Mission in Somalia (Amisom)-which consists of troops from Kenya, Uganda, Burundi and Djibouti-will remain in the country until at least early 2014, providing much-needed support for local troops. Nevertheless, the scale of the task confronting the government-that of building public institutions, virtually from scratch, with highly limited resources-remains daunting.

  Mr Hassan's claim is also undermined by the frequent bombings and assassinations in Mogadishu and other areas apparently under government control, which highlight that al-Shabab remains a significant threat. On March 18th a suicide car-bomb attack near the presidential palace in central Mogadishu appeared to target senior government officials, according to local police. Al-Shabab claimed responsibility for the blast, which killed at least ten people.

  March 20, 2013

• Background

  Somalia: Political forces

  Clan lineages play primary role in Somali life

  Somali political life—as well as social and commercial life—revolves around the genealogy-based clan system. It is characterised by shifting allegiances, with power and politics exercised by means of temporary alliances and coalitions of lineages. The clan elders and religious leaders, traditional brokers of justice, have lost much of their moral authority. There are six major clan families in the Somali lineage system. Four are pastoral: the Darod, the Hawiye, the Issaq and the Dir; the Digil and the Rahawayn are predominantly agricultural and occupy the inter-riverine lands of the south. The former TNG president, Abdikassim Salat Hassan, and the faction leaders, Hussein Mohamed Aideed, Ali Mahdi Mohamed and Ali Hassan Osman "Ato", are all from the Hawiye clan. Clans are also divided by multiple sub-lineages: Mr Ali Mahdi is from the Abgal sub-lineage, but Mr Hassan, Mr Aideed and Mr Osman "Ato" are all Abar Gedir. (The latter two are also members of the same Abar Gedir sub-lineage, the Saad, but are from different sub-lineages of the Saad. Mr Aideed is Rer Jalaf/Saad/Abar Gedir/Hawiye, and Mr Osman "Ato" is Rer Hilowle/Saad/Abar Gedir/Hawiye.)

  The Somaliland Republic

  Since declaring independence the Somaliland Republic has been mostly peaceful, compared with the chaotic south. Diplomatic recognition is a priority; without it, bilateral aid, needed desperately for economic reconstruction, will not be forthcoming. Tentative steps in this direction were made in 1997 when Ethiopia and Djibouti agreed to Somaliland "liaison bureaux" being established on their territories. The Djibouti office closed in April 2000 in response to Somaliland's refusal to take part in the Arta peace talks. Relations with Ethiopia improved further with the appointment of an ambassador to Somaliland in January 2002. Reunification with the south has long been off the agenda, and Somaliland applied for AU membership in late 2005—the application was still awaiting official consideration as at March 2007. Following the local council elections in December 2002, the committee for the registration of political parties recognised three parties, in line with the constitution: the Democratic United National Party (UDUB), which is, in effect, the government party; Kulmiye, which means "unifier"; and the Justice and Welfare Party (UCID). Mr Kahin, who was appointed to the presidency in May 2002 following the death of Mr Egal, was re-elected at the first multiparty presidential election in April 2003. In the country's first parliamentary election in September 2005, the UDUB, led by Mr Kahin, won 33 of the 82 seats; Kulmiye won 28 seats; and the UCID won 21 seats. Kulmiye and the UCID formed a coalition following the election and now control Somaliland's parliament.

  The Somaliland Republic: provisional election results in Somaliland, 2005
  Region	UDUB	Kulmiye	UCID	Total
  Awdal (Borama)	7	3	3	13
  Sahil (Berbera)	4	2	4	10
  Togdheer (Burao)	5	6	4	15
  Sanaag (Ceerigaabo)	5	5	2	12
  Sool (Laascaanood)	6	4	2	12
  Hargeisa	6	8	6	20
  All	33	28	21	82
  Source: Somaliland National Election Commission.

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  Puntland

  The lack of progress towards a peaceful solution to differences among southern groups prompted north-eastern-based clan factions to declare regional autonomy for Puntland in July 1998, under the presidency of Abdullahi Yusuf Ahmed, following a 70-day conference at Garoe. Colonel Yusuf stepped down from his post during the conference of reconciliation between Somali factions in Kenya in 2002-03. Representatives of Puntland's 65 districts elected a new president, General Adde Muse Hirsi, for a three-year term in Garoe in January 2005. Puntland claims to comprise the Bari, Nugaal and Mudug regions, and the Sanaag and Sool regions, which Somaliland also claims. Somaliland disputes any territorial claims made by the Puntland administration, and armed clashes between forces from Puntland and Somaliland continue to occur occasionally to the present day.

  South-west Somalia

  The Rahawayn Resistance Army (RRA) declared regional autonomy for six provinces in Somalia—Bakool, Bay, Gedo, Jubbada Dhexe, Jubbada Hoose and Shabeellaha Hoose—in March 2002. The RRA, an Ethiopian-backed grouping, controls the Bay and Bakool regions, but has little presence in the other regions. Colonel Hasan Mohamed Nur Shatigadud was inaugurated as president in Baidoa, the capital, on April 1st 2002, but insecurity and sporadic violence broke out following a split from his deputies in July 2002. Reconciliation talks involving elders from the Rahawayn clans resolved the dispute in July 2004.

  April 27, 2007

• Structure

  Somalia: Political structure

  Official name

  Somali Democratic Republic

  Form of state

  A federal republic; in May 1991 the Somali National Movement (SNM) unilaterally declared the creation of an independent state in the north, the Somaliland Republic; a significant part of the country remains under the control of the Islamist militia, al-Shabab

  Legal system

  Somalia's new constitution, approved by the 825-member National Constituent Assembly in August 2012, has a basis in sharia (Islamic law); in practice, local authorities or elders enforce laws based on custom

  National legislature

  The People's Assembly has not been active since 1991; the Federal Transitional Parliament (FTP) was replaced by a new, 275-seat federal parliament in August. The new parliament, based in Mogadishu, is also made up of representatives from Somalia's four major clans (each has been allocated 61 seats), while a fifth grouping (an alliance of minority clans) has 31 seats

  National elections

  Last elections in 1967 (presidential) and 1969 (legislative); national elections have been postponed from mid-2012 to mid-2016 owing to continued insecurity and the lack of government control in the country

  National government

  The president, prime minister and cabinet; a new president, Hassan Sheikh Mohammed, was elected by the federal parliament in September 2012; a new prime minister, Abdi Farah Shirdon, was appointed in October 2012 and a cabinet is due to be appointed shortly

  Main political factions

  The main political factions are the Alliance for the Re-Liberation of Somalia (formerly based in Djibouti), the National Salvation Council (NSC), the Somali Restoration and Reconciliation Council (SRRC), various regional administrations, and various civil society and traditional leaders; al-Shabab (the biggest insurgent jihadi group, which incorporates another Islamist militia, Hizbul Islam); Alliance for the Re-Liberation of Somalia (ARS; based in Eritrea)

  Key ministers

  President: Hassan Sheikh Mohammed

  Prime minister: Abdi Farah Shirdon

  Deputy prime minister & defence: Vacant

  Deputy prime minister & foreign affairs: Vacant

  Deputy prime minister, trade & industry: Vacant

  Agriculture & livestock: Vacant

  Finance & Treasury: Vacant

  Internal affairs & security: Vacant

  Somaliland Republic

  The Somaliland Republic was declared independent in 1991, with Hargeisa as its administrative capital; it has a functioning legislature and executive; in the long-delayed presidential election, finally held in June 2010, the incumbent, Dahir Riyale Kahin, came second; the winner was Ahmed Mohamed Mohamoud Silanyo, who was the candidate of the Kulmiye ("unifier") party; Mr Kahin leads the Democratic United National Party (UDUB); the Justice and Welfare Party (UCID), is led by Faisal Ali Warabe, who came third in the presidential poll; in August 2011 a law was passed allowing the formation of additional political parties; four new parties have been formed since then; council and parliamentary elections are due to be held by December 2012 (initially April) and May 2013 respectively

  November 01, 2012

Economy:

• Background

  Somalia: Population

  The World Bank estimated the population to be 8.2m in 2005 and the annual population growth rate to be 3.3%. The population is highly mobile because of the large number of nomads, moving mainly in the central and northern areas, and because of refugee movements in response to food shortages and clan warfare. The UN estimates that close to 1m people (including those in refugee camps outside the country) have been displaced since the collapse of government in 1991.

  Efforts are made to gather data on Somalia's population

  The new Socio-Economic Survey 2002 of Somalia was published in January 2004, the first in a proposed series of annual publications on the country (subsequently, no further surveys have been published). A joint initiative between the World Bank, the UN Development Programme (UNDP) and several other UN agencies, the report is designed to help to support the process of rebuilding. The survey is the result of a nationwide household survey and is the first to be published on Somalia since the civil war broke out in 1991. The absence of government institutions since then has led to a complete lack of reliable data. According to the survey, 43% of Somalis live in extreme poverty, with an income of US$1 a day or less. Average life expectancy at birth is put at 47 years, the adult literacy rate is 19% and 47% of the economically active population is unemployed. The difficulties associated with carrying out a survey of this type in Somalia are significant, and the data, although extremely useful, should not be considered strictly accurate. The magnitude of the collapse in Somalia is difficult to quantify, and some indicators (health, education, household incomes) are likely to be worse than were recorded in the survey because of the inaccessibility of the most dangerous and remote places.

  April 27, 2007

• Structure

  Somalia: Economic structure

  Economic structure: Annual indicatorsa

  	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010
  Population (m)	8.5	8.7	8.9	9.1	9.3
  Exports fob (US$ m)b	292.1	353.6	426.8	430.8	515.8
  Imports fob (US$ m)b	-814.7	-919.7	-1,179.4	-1,024.7	-1,262.6
  Total external debt (US$ bn)c	2.8	2.9	2.9	2.9	2.9
  a There are only limited reliable economic data for Somalia; all figures are rough estimates from official or other sources. b Based on partners' trade returns; subject to a wide margin of error. c There have been no new loan disbursements since 1991; statistical changes in the debt stock reflect currency fluctuations and arrears accrued since 1991.

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  Origins of gross domestic product 2009	% of total	Components of gross domestic product 2009	% of total
  Agriculture	60.2	Private consumption	72.6
  Industry	7.4	Government consumption	8.7
  Manufacturing	2.5	Fixed investment	20.0
  Services	32.5	Stockbuilding	0.1
  		Exports of goods & services	0.3
  		Imports of goods & services	1.7
  Main destinations of exports 2010a	% of total	Main origins of imports 2010a	% of total
  UAE	50.9	Djibouti	30.7
  Yemen	19.6	Kenya	8.0
  Oman	12.8	Pakistan	7.2
  Saudi Arabia	3.3	China	6.3
  a Based on partners' trade returns; subject to a wide margin of error.

  Download the numbers in Excel

  Download text file (csv format)

  November 01, 2012

• Outlook

  Somalia: Country outlook

  Somalia: Country outlook

  FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT

  OVERVIEW: The balance of power in south-central Somalia will continue to shift in favour of the federal government as various African troops and forces loyal to the government make further military gains against al-Shabab during the 2013-14 forecast period. This will not put an end to civil conflict, with al-Shabab regrouping in the Galgala Mountains in Puntland and continuing to switch to more guerrilla-style tactics. Prospects for stability will be supported by the recent UN-backed transition to a new government, although this does not mark the beginning of a permanent political order, as national elections have been deferred to 2016. We expect economic growth to pick up, facilitated by improvements in security, although the pace of change will be held back by the lack of a credible lasting political settlement and continued civil conflict. The Somaliland government will continue to seek formal recognition of the region as a sovereign state, but is unlikely to succeed. The region's economy will be supported by remittances and sizeable foreign investment.

  DOMESTIC POLITICS: Military gains against al-Shabab by troops from the African Union Mission in Somalia, Ethiopians in south-central areas and forces loyal to the Somali government have continued to proceed rapidly in recent months. Despite these gains, the eradication of the Islamist insurgency is unlikely to be achieved, with al-Shabab switching to more guerrilla-style tactics. This will lead to an ever-present threat of suicide bombings in areas wrested from its control. Somalia's political prospects have been supported by the completion in late 2012 of the UN-backed transition to a new government. The adoption in August 2012 of a permanent constitution-endorsed by over 95% of the National Constituent Assembly-was followed by the appointment of a new, 275-seat federal parliament, which then elected the country's new president, Hassan Sheikh Mohammed, in September. Mr Hassan's record is largely untested and his government could face the same crisis of credibility that characterised the former transitional federal government. The political transition does not mark the beginning of a permanent political order, because the country's new parliament has not been elected and will exist only until June 2016, when elections are scheduled to be held. The Somaliland government will continue to pursue its most important objective-formal recognition of the region as a sovereign state by the international community-throughout the forecast period, although it is unlikely to succeed.

  INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS: Acts of piracy by Somalis off the Horn of Africa have declined sharply and are expected to remain at a low level. The decline seems to have been driven by a rapid increase in the use of private security firms by commercial shipping companies, as well as the impact of the various counter-piracy missions operating off the Somali coast. The greater focus of US policy towards Somalia on the semi-autonomous region of Puntland, from where much of the piracy originates, will mean more donor-backed efforts towards the development of viable alternative livelihoods for those currently engaged in piracy, although a well-equipped and -organised hard core will remain unwilling to forgo such a lucrative racket in favour of legal occupations such as fishing. The US dual-track policy on Somalia-under which the US deals with both federal and sub-state actors-is also responsible, in part, for the recent proliferation of semi-autonomous regions, including Galmudug and Khaatumo, as different groups vie for the resources being offered by the US. This has undermined the relatively peaceful status quo in Puntland and Somaliland, and this disruption seems likely to continue.

  POLICY TRENDS: The Somaliland government will continue to work on improving the business environment. A major step towards this was achieved in October 2012 when the new Islamic banking bill was signed into law, paving the way for private commercial banks to start operating in the region. The government will also focus on trying to attract more aid, particularly through a new trust fund designed to give it greater control over aid. However, the chances of attaining sufficient donor finance for its five-year National Development Plan are slim.

  ECONOMIC GROWTH: The Somali capital, Mogadishu, has begun to experience a minor economic boom as further improvements in security have led to an influx of investment-a trend that is likely to continue. However, persisting security threats in the capital, combined with civil conflict in much of the rest of the country, will impede broader progress towards economic normalisation. In the wake of the famine in late 2011 and early 2012-which was described by the UN as the worst in the region in 60 years-an estimated 2m Somalis remain food insecure. The relief effort is likely to continue to be hampered by insufficient funds.

  EXTERNAL ACCOUNT: Remittances from the Somali diaspora-currently estimated to contribute 20% to GDP-are likely to grow slightly, from around US$1bn a year at present, driven by improvements in money-transfer technology. This should alleviate hardship in recipient households to a limited extent. Other bright spots in the region's economic outlook include continuing interest from oil and gas exploration companies, the Kuwaiti-sponsored renovation of the airports at Berbera and Hargeisa, and large investments in infrastructural development in and around Berbera port by Chinese investors and a French-owned firm, Bolloré Africa Logistics. Increased development assistance from the US will start to have an impact in Puntland.

  January 30, 2013

View detailed map

Country Briefing

Land area

637,600 sq km

Population

9.8m (2012 UN mid-year estimate)

Main towns

Population (2012 World Gazetteer estimates):

Mogadishu (capital): 1.6m

Hargeisa: 478,514

Bossasso: 107,326

Berbera: 78,047

Gaalka'yo: 76,149

Borama: 67,103

Kismayu: 57,321

Laascaanood: 42,674

Garowe: 32,523

Climate

Hot and dry

Weather in Mogadishu (altitude 12 metres)

Hottest month, April, 26-32°C; coldest months, July and August, 23-28°C; driest months, January and February, 1 mm average rainfall; wettest month, June, 97 mm average rainfall

Languages

Somali; also Arabic, Italian (in the south) and English (in the north)

Measures

Metric system

Currency

Somali shilling (SoSh); the self-styled Somaliland Republic has its own currency, the Somaliland shilling (SolSh)

Time

3 hours ahead of GMT

Public holidays

January 1st (New Year's Day), May 1st (Labour Day), June 26th (Independence Day), July 1st (Foundation of the Republic). All Islamic holidays are observed in accordance with the lunar calendar: Mawlid al-Nabi (the birthday of the Prophet); Eid al-Fitr (end of Ramadan); Eid al-Adha (Feast of the Sacrifice); Ashura; Islamic New Year.

February 01, 2013