Somalia

Politics:

• Analysis

  Somalia politics: Quick View - Somaliland court confirms disputed election

  Event

  A regional court in the Somaliland capital, Hargeisa, has approved the disputed results of municipal council elections in the city and three other towns.

  Analysis

  A regional court judge announced on December 16th that he approved the results of the municipal council elections in Hargeisa and three settlements in the north-western province of Woqooyi Galbeed-Sallahley, Gabiley and Baligubadle-where tensions have been high since the elections took place on November 28th. The initial announcement of the results in Hargeisa on December 6th sparked clashes between security forces and supporters of the Haqsoor political association in which three people were killed. Two days later, the National Electoral Commission (NEC) announced that it would recount the votes cast in Hargeisa and other disputed districts following complaints of unfairness from four of the seven political associations involved in the elections. The recount found errors in the process, although it did not change the share of seats won by each political association, and the court validated the names of the 72 members who won council seats in the four districts after the recount. The court's decision sparked a further protest in one Hargeisa district where the angry crowd was dispersed by local police shooting live rounds into the air.

  Protests were also reported from Erigavo, the capital of the Sanaag region, where the newly elected local council re-elected Erigavo's mayor and deputy mayor during its first session on December 17th. The town's deep political divisions were evident because although the election of the mayor and his deputy was unanimous, their offices were secured with a majority of just one, as ten of the 20 new councillors abstained.

  The NEC had still not announced by mid-December which three of the seven political associations contesting the local elections will become Somaliland's official political parties, as determined under the constitution, eligible to contest national elections for the next decade.

  December 19, 2012

• Background

  Somalia: Political forces

  Clan lineages play primary role in Somali life

  Somali political life—as well as social and commercial life—revolves around the genealogy-based clan system. It is characterised by shifting allegiances, with power and politics exercised by means of temporary alliances and coalitions of lineages. The clan elders and religious leaders, traditional brokers of justice, have lost much of their moral authority. There are six major clan families in the Somali lineage system. Four are pastoral: the Darod, the Hawiye, the Issaq and the Dir; the Digil and the Rahawayn are predominantly agricultural and occupy the inter-riverine lands of the south. The former TNG president, Abdikassim Salat Hassan, and the faction leaders, Hussein Mohamed Aideed, Ali Mahdi Mohamed and Ali Hassan Osman "Ato", are all from the Hawiye clan. Clans are also divided by multiple sub-lineages: Mr Ali Mahdi is from the Abgal sub-lineage, but Mr Hassan, Mr Aideed and Mr Osman "Ato" are all Abar Gedir. (The latter two are also members of the same Abar Gedir sub-lineage, the Saad, but are from different sub-lineages of the Saad. Mr Aideed is Rer Jalaf/Saad/Abar Gedir/Hawiye, and Mr Osman "Ato" is Rer Hilowle/Saad/Abar Gedir/Hawiye.)

  The Somaliland Republic

  Since declaring independence the Somaliland Republic has been mostly peaceful, compared with the chaotic south. Diplomatic recognition is a priority; without it, bilateral aid, needed desperately for economic reconstruction, will not be forthcoming. Tentative steps in this direction were made in 1997 when Ethiopia and Djibouti agreed to Somaliland "liaison bureaux" being established on their territories. The Djibouti office closed in April 2000 in response to Somaliland's refusal to take part in the Arta peace talks. Relations with Ethiopia improved further with the appointment of an ambassador to Somaliland in January 2002. Reunification with the south has long been off the agenda, and Somaliland applied for AU membership in late 2005—the application was still awaiting official consideration as at March 2007. Following the local council elections in December 2002, the committee for the registration of political parties recognised three parties, in line with the constitution: the Democratic United National Party (UDUB), which is, in effect, the government party; Kulmiye, which means "unifier"; and the Justice and Welfare Party (UCID). Mr Kahin, who was appointed to the presidency in May 2002 following the death of Mr Egal, was re-elected at the first multiparty presidential election in April 2003. In the country's first parliamentary election in September 2005, the UDUB, led by Mr Kahin, won 33 of the 82 seats; Kulmiye won 28 seats; and the UCID won 21 seats. Kulmiye and the UCID formed a coalition following the election and now control Somaliland's parliament.

  The Somaliland Republic: provisional election results in Somaliland, 2005
  Region	UDUB	Kulmiye	UCID	Total
  Awdal (Borama)	7	3	3	13
  Sahil (Berbera)	4	2	4	10
  Togdheer (Burao)	5	6	4	15
  Sanaag (Ceerigaabo)	5	5	2	12
  Sool (Laascaanood)	6	4	2	12
  Hargeisa	6	8	6	20
  All	33	28	21	82
  Source: Somaliland National Election Commission.

  Download text file (csv format)

  Puntland

  The lack of progress towards a peaceful solution to differences among southern groups prompted north-eastern-based clan factions to declare regional autonomy for Puntland in July 1998, under the presidency of Abdullahi Yusuf Ahmed, following a 70-day conference at Garoe. Colonel Yusuf stepped down from his post during the conference of reconciliation between Somali factions in Kenya in 2002-03. Representatives of Puntland's 65 districts elected a new president, General Adde Muse Hirsi, for a three-year term in Garoe in January 2005. Puntland claims to comprise the Bari, Nugaal and Mudug regions, and the Sanaag and Sool regions, which Somaliland also claims. Somaliland disputes any territorial claims made by the Puntland administration, and armed clashes between forces from Puntland and Somaliland continue to occur occasionally to the present day.

  South-west Somalia

  The Rahawayn Resistance Army (RRA) declared regional autonomy for six provinces in Somalia—Bakool, Bay, Gedo, Jubbada Dhexe, Jubbada Hoose and Shabeellaha Hoose—in March 2002. The RRA, an Ethiopian-backed grouping, controls the Bay and Bakool regions, but has little presence in the other regions. Colonel Hasan Mohamed Nur Shatigadud was inaugurated as president in Baidoa, the capital, on April 1st 2002, but insecurity and sporadic violence broke out following a split from his deputies in July 2002. Reconciliation talks involving elders from the Rahawayn clans resolved the dispute in July 2004.

  April 27, 2007

• Structure

  Somalia: Political structure

  Official name

  Somali Democratic Republic

  Form of state

  A federal republic; in May 1991 the Somali National Movement (SNM) unilaterally declared the creation of an independent state in the north, the Somaliland Republic; a significant part of the country remains under the control of the Islamist militia, al-Shabab

  Legal system

  Somalia's new constitution, approved by the 825-member National Constituent Assembly in August 2012, has a basis in sharia (Islamic law); in practice, local authorities or elders enforce laws based on custom

  National legislature

  The People's Assembly has not been active since 1991; the Federal Transitional Parliament (FTP) was replaced by a new, 275-seat federal parliament in August. The new parliament, based in Mogadishu, is also made up of representatives from Somalia's four major clans (each has been allocated 61 seats), while a fifth grouping (an alliance of minority clans) has 31 seats

  National elections

  Last elections in 1967 (presidential) and 1969 (legislative); national elections have been postponed from mid-2012 to mid-2016 owing to continued insecurity and the lack of government control in the country

  National government

  The president, prime minister and cabinet; a new president, Hassan Sheikh Mohammed, was elected by the federal parliament in September 2012; a new prime minister, Abdi Farah Shirdon, was appointed in October 2012 and a cabinet is due to be appointed shortly

  Main political factions

  The main political factions are the Alliance for the Re-Liberation of Somalia (formerly based in Djibouti), the National Salvation Council (NSC), the Somali Restoration and Reconciliation Council (SRRC), various regional administrations, and various civil society and traditional leaders; al-Shabab (the biggest insurgent jihadi group, which incorporates another Islamist militia, Hizbul Islam); Alliance for the Re-Liberation of Somalia (ARS; based in Eritrea)

  Key ministers

  President: Hassan Sheikh Mohammed

  Prime minister: Abdi Farah Shirdon

  Deputy prime minister & defence: Vacant

  Deputy prime minister & foreign affairs: Vacant

  Deputy prime minister, trade & industry: Vacant

  Agriculture & livestock: Vacant

  Finance & Treasury: Vacant

  Internal affairs & security: Vacant

  Somaliland Republic

  The Somaliland Republic was declared independent in 1991, with Hargeisa as its administrative capital; it has a functioning legislature and executive; in the long-delayed presidential election, finally held in June 2010, the incumbent, Dahir Riyale Kahin, came second; the winner was Ahmed Mohamed Mohamoud Silanyo, who was the candidate of the Kulmiye ("unifier") party; Mr Kahin leads the Democratic United National Party (UDUB); the Justice and Welfare Party (UCID), is led by Faisal Ali Warabe, who came third in the presidential poll; in August 2011 a law was passed allowing the formation of additional political parties; four new parties have been formed since then; council and parliamentary elections are due to be held by December 2012 (initially April) and May 2013 respectively

  November 01, 2012

Economy:

• Background

  Somalia: Population

  The World Bank estimated the population to be 8.2m in 2005 and the annual population growth rate to be 3.3%. The population is highly mobile because of the large number of nomads, moving mainly in the central and northern areas, and because of refugee movements in response to food shortages and clan warfare. The UN estimates that close to 1m people (including those in refugee camps outside the country) have been displaced since the collapse of government in 1991.

  Efforts are made to gather data on Somalia's population

  The new Socio-Economic Survey 2002 of Somalia was published in January 2004, the first in a proposed series of annual publications on the country (subsequently, no further surveys have been published). A joint initiative between the World Bank, the UN Development Programme (UNDP) and several other UN agencies, the report is designed to help to support the process of rebuilding. The survey is the result of a nationwide household survey and is the first to be published on Somalia since the civil war broke out in 1991. The absence of government institutions since then has led to a complete lack of reliable data. According to the survey, 43% of Somalis live in extreme poverty, with an income of US$1 a day or less. Average life expectancy at birth is put at 47 years, the adult literacy rate is 19% and 47% of the economically active population is unemployed. The difficulties associated with carrying out a survey of this type in Somalia are significant, and the data, although extremely useful, should not be considered strictly accurate. The magnitude of the collapse in Somalia is difficult to quantify, and some indicators (health, education, household incomes) are likely to be worse than were recorded in the survey because of the inaccessibility of the most dangerous and remote places.

  April 27, 2007

• Structure

  Somalia: Economic structure

  Economic structure: Annual indicatorsa

  	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010
  Population (m)	8.5	8.7	8.9	9.1	9.3
  Exports fob (US$ m)b	292.1	353.6	426.8	430.8	515.8
  Imports fob (US$ m)b	-814.7	-919.7	-1,179.4	-1,024.7	-1,262.6
  Total external debt (US$ bn)c	2.8	2.9	2.9	2.9	2.9
  a There are only limited reliable economic data for Somalia; all figures are rough estimates from official or other sources. b Based on partners' trade returns; subject to a wide margin of error. c There have been no new loan disbursements since 1991; statistical changes in the debt stock reflect currency fluctuations and arrears accrued since 1991.

  Download the numbers in Excel

  Origins of gross domestic product 2009	% of total	Components of gross domestic product 2009	% of total
  Agriculture	60.2	Private consumption	72.6
  Industry	7.4	Government consumption	8.7
  Manufacturing	2.5	Fixed investment	20.0
  Services	32.5	Stockbuilding	0.1
  		Exports of goods & services	0.3
  		Imports of goods & services	1.7
  Main destinations of exports 2010a	% of total	Main origins of imports 2010a	% of total
  UAE	50.9	Djibouti	30.7
  Yemen	19.6	Kenya	8.0
  Oman	12.8	Pakistan	7.2
  Saudi Arabia	3.3	China	6.3
  a Based on partners' trade returns; subject to a wide margin of error.

  Download the numbers in Excel

  Download text file (csv format)

  November 01, 2012

• Outlook

  Somalia: Country outlook

  Somalia: Country outlook

  FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT

  OVERVIEW: The balance of power in south-central Somalia will continue to shift in favour of the federal government as various African troops and forces loyal to the government make further military gains against Somalia's main Islamist insurgency group, al-Shabab. The shift in the balance of power will not put an end to civil conflict, with al-Shabab regrouping in the Galgala mountains in Puntland and continuing to switch to more guerrilla-style tactics. The "road map" leading to a new government will be completed shortly. However, this will not herald the beginning of a new permanent political order, as national elections have been deferred to June 2016. Progress towards economic normalisation will be impeded by the lack of a credible lasting political settlement and continued civil conflict. The Somaliland government will continue to seek formal recognition of the region as a sovereign state, but is unlikely to succeed. The region's economy will be supported by remittances and sizeable foreign investment.

  DOMESTIC POLITICS: Military gains against al-Shabab, by troops from the African Union Mission in Somalia (Amisom), Ethiopians in south-central areas and forces loyal to the Somali government have continued to proceed rapidly in recent months. Amisom's capture in late September of the southern port of Kismayu-the last major city held by al-Shabab-has dealt a major blow to the militia, as the port was a vital source of revenue for it. The balance of power in south and central Somalia is expected to continue to shift in favour of the country's newly established transitional government, supported by the continued presence of Kenyan troops (who have now been absorbed into a larger Amisom contingent) as well as Ethiopian forces. Despite these gains, the eradication of the Islamist insurgency is unlikely to be achieved. Al-Shabab will carry on regrouping in the Galgala mountains in the semi-autonomous region of Puntland, an area of very difficult terrain, and will continue its switch to more guerrilla-style tactics. This will lead to an ever-present threat of suicide bombings in areas wrested from its control, as has been highlighted by the situation in the Somali capital, Mogadishu. The federal government also faces the enormous task of filling the power vacuum in areas taken over from al-Shabab. Though the presence of foreign troops will create public resentment and undermine stability, the strong influence of foreign jihadi groups over al-Shabab means that any such effect would be unlikely to lead to an increase in public support for the Islamist militia. The UN-backed "road map" to a new government is now nearing completion, which will help to secure the recent improvements in Somalia's political prospects. The adoption on August 1st of a permanent constitution-endorsed by over 95% of the National Constituent Assembly-was followed by the appointment of a new, 275-seat federal parliament, which then elected the country's new president, Hassan Sheikh Mohammed, on September 10th. The Somaliland government will continue to pursue its most important objective-formal recognition of the region as a sovereign state by the international community-throughout the 2013-14 forecast period, although with limited success. Somaliland's appearance at, and endorsement of, an international conference in London (the British capital) in February 2012 was a calculated gamble to help to achieve that goal. Recent talks between the two sides-the first formal discussions since Somaliland declared itself independent from Somalia 20 years ago-unsurprisingly, amounted to little. One continuing obstacle is that Somaliland views any dialogue as a consultation between two neighbouring countries, while many in Somalia see it as a central government talking to a regional one. The emergence of the semi-autonomous state of Khaatumo-consisting of three regions within Somaliland-further complicates the issue. It has undermined Somaliland's claims to democratic legitimacy by highlighting a striking lack of consensus on its territorial boundaries, and has presented Somaliland's president, Ahmed Mohamed Mohamoud Silanyo, with the most severe test of his leadership to date.

  INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS: Acts of piracy by Somalis off the Horn of Africa, including the hijacking of ships and the kidnapping of their crews for ransom, declined sharply in the first half of 2012 and are expected to remain at a low level, despite the expected persistence of instability onshore. The greater focus of US policy towards Somalia on the semi-autonomous region of Puntland, from where much of the piracy originates, will mean more donor-backed efforts towards the development of viable alternative livelihoods for those currently engaged in piracy, although a well-equipped and -organised hard core will remain unwilling to forgo such a lucrative racket in favour of legitimate occupations such as fishing. The US dual-track policy on Somalia-under which the US deals with both federal and sub-state actors-is also responsible, in part, for the recent proliferation of semi-autonomous regions, including Galmudug and Khaatumo, as different groups vie for the resources being offered by the US. This has undermined the relatively peaceful status quo in Puntland and Somaliland, and this disruption seems likely to continue.

  POLICY TRENDS: The Somaliland government will continue to work on improving the business environment. A major step towards this was achieved in early October, when the new Islamic banking bill was signed into law, paving the way for private commercial banks to start operating in the region. The government will also focus on trying to attract more aid, particularly through a new trust fund designed to give it greater control over aid. However, the chances of attaining sufficient donor finance for its five-year National Development Plan are slim. The government's forecast of an increase in remittances from the Somali diaspora-currently estimated to contribute 20% to GDP-is more realistic. Other bright spots in the region's economic outlook include continuing interest from oil and gas exploration companies, the Kuwaiti-sponsored renovation of the airports at Berbera and Hargeisa, and large investments in infrastructural development in and around Berbera port by Chinese investors and a French-owned firm, Bolloré Africa Logistics. The port at Berbera will continue to be the government's main source of revenue in 2013-14.

  ECONOMIC GROWTH: Despite recent substantial improvements in Somalia's political prospects, progress towards economic normalisation will continue to be impeded by civil conflict and the lack of a credible lasting political settlement. The famine triggered by last year's drought-which was described by the UN as the worst in the region in 60 years-ended in February, but the US government's Famine Early Warning Systems Network estimates that over 2m Somalis remain food insecure. Humanitarian organisations will continue to face difficulties delivering aid in the face of insecurity and the spectre of theft by contractors, distributors and armed groups. Insufficient funds are also likely to hamper the relief effort. Some improvement in infrastructure in Mogadishu is expected as Turkish projects get under way, and increased development assistance from the US will start to have an impact in Puntland. The region will also benefit from the recent start of oil exploration, although uncertainty over the regional government's authority to strike such deals will continue to deter all but the most intrepid investors.

  EXTERNAL ACCOUNT: Remittances from the Somali diaspora are expected to grow slightly, from around US$1bn per year at present, driven by improvements in money-transfer technology. This should alleviate hardship in recipient households to a limited extent. A stronger Somali shilling should also help, by lowering the cost of imported food.

  November 01, 2012

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Country Briefing

Land area

637,600 sq km

Population

9.1m (2009 UN mid-year estimate)

Main towns

Population (2009 World Gazetteer estimates)

Mogadishu (capital): 1.6m

Hargeisa: 436,232

Bossasso: 108,016

Gaalka'yo: 85,252

Berbera: 71,151

Borama: 68,851

Kismayu: 66,921

Laascaanood: 40,579

Garoe: 38,636

Climate

Hot and dry

Weather in Mogadishu (altitude 12 metres)

Hottest month, April, 26-32°C; coldest months, July and August, 23-28°C; driest months, January and February, 1 mm average rainfall; wettest month, June, 97 mm average rainfall

Languages

Somali; also Arabic, Italian (in the south) and English (in the north)

Measures

Metric system

Currency

Somali shilling (SoSh); the self-styled Somaliland Republic has its own currency, the Somaliland shilling (SolSh)

Time

3 hours ahead of GMT

Public holidays

January 1st (New Year's Day), Id al-Fitr, Id al-Adha, Ashura, May 1st (Labour Day), June 26th (Independence Day), July 1st (Foundation of the Republic); all Islamic holidays are observed in accordance with the lunar calendar; Mawlid al-Nabi (the birthday of the Prophet); Eid al-Fitr (end of Ramadan); Eid al-Adha (Feast of the Sacrifice); Islamic New Year

August 01, 2011