Senegal

Politics:

• Analysis

  Senegal politics: Quick View - ECOWAS poses the government a problem

  Event

  The ECOWAS Court of Justice has ruled that the travel ban imposed by the Sengalese authorities on Karim Wade, the son of former president Abdoulaye Wade, is legally void.

  Analysis

  Karim Wade and six other senior officials of the Parti Démocratique Sénégalais (PDS) have been under investigation for suspected corruption since mid-2012. In November they were banned from leaving the country. However, although Mr Wade has been subjected to several lengthy sessions of formal questioning, he and the other senior PDS suspects have not so far been charged with any offence.

  The Wade camp appealed over the handling of their case to the Court of Justice of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). On March 20th the ECOWAS court declared the Senegalese authorities to be in breach of justice principles on three key points: the travel ban, because Wade and his colleagues have not yet been formally charged; the absence of their lawyers from interview sessions; and the fact that statements by the special prosecutor could prejudice a fair trial. The government must now decide whether to ignore the ruling, risking the public reputation of the president, Macky Sall, for democratic good governance, or to comply with it, and thus take the risk that Mr Wade and his fellow suspects might escape abroad.

  Karim Wade is a hugely controversial figure, seen as an emblem of the flaws in his father's highly personalised governance. After Mr Sall assumed the presidency, Karim Wade became a prime target of the new authorities' probe into failings of governance under the previous administration. He initially went to France, but he returned to Senegal in November after the issue of an international warrant. Investigators are working under the authority of the Cour de répression d'enrichessement illicite (CREI), Senegal's anti-corruption court, which was marginalised during the Wade presidency but has been revived by Mr Sall. Mr Wade is under pressure to explain how he accumulated vast personal wealth that, according to CREI's estimates, is not commensurate with his official remuneration as a minister.

  March 25, 2013

• Background

  Senegal: Key figures

  Abdoulaye Wade

  The 82-year-old leader of the Parti democratique senegalais (PDS) and its candidate in every presidential election since 1978, Mr Wade was first elected president in March 2000 and re-elected in February 2007. His victory in the first round of the poll confirmed his overall popularity, although the perception of cronyism and widespread corruption, his authoritarian drifts and frequent cabinet reshuffles have dented his image. Although he is yet to rule himself out of the presidential election due in 2012, he would meet vociferous opposition from opposition groups and PDS members, both on constitutional grounds and in view of his age.

  Karim Wade

  The son and adviser of the president, his supporters within the ruling PDS, known as the generation du concret (concrete generation), are reputed to be business-friendly but non-ideological. He has risen to greater domestic and international prominence recently, having co-ordinated preparations for Senegal's hosting of the Organisation of the Islamic Conference (OIC) in the capital, Dakar, in March 2008, and having reportedly held negotiations with the French president, Nicolas Sarkozy, in August about plans to construct a nuclear power station in Senegal. It is widely speculated that his father is grooming him for succession, possibly at the presidential election due in 2012, although such a dynastic transfer of power is fiercely resisted both by opposition parties and by his rivals and their supporters within the PDS. Furthermore, his popular support is undermined by his mother being French and the fact that, having been brought up mainly abroad, he does not speak Wolof fluently.

  Macky Sall

  Currently president of the National Assembly, Mr Sall has held various ministerial posts, becoming prime minister in April 2004. He carries significant political clout within the PDS and was the campaign manager for Mr Wade and the PDS in the 2007 elections, but his enemies within PDS and Mr Wade's growing mistrust of him finally led to his being dismissed as prime minister in June 2007. Mr Sall's summoning of Karim Wade to appear before the National Assembly's finance committee to answer questions about his management of construction projects for the OIC meeting in Dakar only deepened the enmity towards him from the Wade camp. In October 2008 a PDS initiative to reduce the term of office of the president of the National Assembly from five years to one—a move clearly calculated to marginalise him—was successfully passed into law. However, Mr Sall has shown himself undaunted by the efforts of his enemies within the ruling party and has sought to raise his profile abroad, notably visiting the upper house of the French legislature, the Senate, in September 2008. He would be among the front-runners in the 2012 presidential election, should he decide to stand.

  Idrissa Seck

  Previously the PDS's second-in-command and prime minister from November 2002 to April 2004, Mr Seck has been a source of controversy within the party and with several of the PDS's allies. He was accused of mismanaging public funds in July 2005, but an additional charge against him of endangering state security was dropped in 2006. Mr Seck was tried on corruption charges by a special tribunal and expelled from the PDS in August 2005, thereby changing from the president's protege to a serious political rival. This was confirmed by Mr Seck's creation of his own opposition party, Rewmi, in September 2006 and his second place in the 2007 presidential election. He appeared at the High Court of Justice in April 2008, announcing to the press that the charges against him of financial mismanagement would be withdrawn. Although some commentators believed that this heralded his reunion with the president and the PDS, his call in June for civil disobedience in response to the planned dissolution of Thies municipality, where he is mayor, will have reopened the rift.

  November 04, 2008

• Structure

  Senegal: Political structure

  Official name

  République du Sénégal

  Form of state

  Unitary republic

  Legal system

  Based on the Napoleonic Code and the constitution of January 2001

  National legislature

  National Assembly, with 150 members elected for five years by universal suffrage in a mixed system of first-past-the-post and proportional representation

  Head of state

  President, elected by universal suffrage, currently serves a five-year term of office and may stand for re-election once

  National elections

  February/March 2012 (presidential); June 2012 (legislative); next presidential and parliamentary elections due by 2017

  National government

  The president and his Council of Ministers

  Main political parties

  Benno Bokk Yakaar coalition (119/150 seats), including the president's Alliance pour la République (APR), Alliance des forces de progrès (AFP), And-Jëf/Parti africain pour la démocratie et le socialisme (AJ/PADS); Parti socialiste (PS), Union pour le renouveau démocratique (URD); Rewmi; Parti démocratique Sénégalais (PDS); Bokk Giss Giss coalition; Mouvement citoyen pour la refondation nationale (MCRN); Mouvement républicain pour le socialisme et la démocratie; Parti de la vérité pour le développement (PVD)

  President: Macky Sall

  Prime minister: Abdoul Aziz Mbaye

  Agriculture & rural equipment: Benoit Sambou

  Ministers of state

  Armed forces: Augustin Tine

  Civil service & labour: Mansour Sy

  Communication, telecommunications & information technology: Abou Lô

  Culture & Tourism: Youssou N'Dour

  Ecology & protection of nature: Ali Haïdar

  Economy & finance: Amadou Kane

  Education: Ibrahima Sall

  Energy & mines: Ngouille Aly Ndiaye

  Fishing & maritime affairs: Aminata Mbengue Ndiaye

  Foreign affairs & Senegalese diaspora: Alioune Badara Cissé

  Health & social action: Eva Marie Coll Seck

  Higher education, universities & research: Serigne Mbaye Thiam

  Infrastructure & transport: Mor Ngom

  Interior: Mbaye Ndiaye

  Justice: Aminata Touré

  Livestock: Aminata Mbengue Ndiaye

  Planning: Cheikh Bamba Dieye

  Trade, industry & handicrafts: Mata Sy Diallo

  Urbanisation & housing: Khoudia Mbaye

  Water & sanitation: Oumar Guèye

  Women, children &Female entrepreneurship: Mariama Sarr

  Youth, professional raining & employment: Aly Koto Ndiaye

  Governor of the regional central bank (BCEAO)

  Koné Tiémoko Meyliet

  January 23, 2013

• Outlook

  Senegal: Key developments

  Outlook for 2013-17

  • Having subsided after the peaceful presidential transition, political and social tension is likely to remain low, safeguarding Senegal's democratic credentials.
  • Separatist violence in the Casamance region has calmed, with both the president and rebel groups having signalled their willingness to enter negotiations to end the seemingly intractable 30-year insurgency.
  • The government will begin to restore control over public spending; the Economist Intelligence Unit forecasts that the fiscal deficit will shrink over the forecast period, averaging 4.8% of GDP, as economic growth accelerates.
  • With FDI inflows robust, industrial and agricultural output growing and public works picking up, we forecast that real GDP growth will accelerate to 5.1% in 2017. Unreliable power supply will remain a key downside risk.
  • Having moderated to 1.4% in 2012, average inflation will tick back up to 1.7% in 2013-14, restrained by a stable currency and lower commodity prices, accelerating thereafter as global commodity prices rise.
  • The current-account deficit is forecast to narrow from an estimated peak of 11.9% of GDP in 2012, to average 7.5% in 2013-17.

  Review

  • In November the president, Macky Sall, enacted his first cabinet reshuffle, replacing two loyalists and increasing the number of portfolios. A journalist and anti-corruption campaigner, Abdou Latif Coulibaly, takes on good governance.
  • The prime minister, Abdoul Mbaye, came under pressure for allowing the bank he managed two decades ago to accept deposits from the former Chadian dictator, Hissène Habré.
  • On November 6th the energy and mines minister, Ngouille Aly Ndiaye, said that the government planned to review mining contracts.
  • Karim Wade, the son of the ex-president, Abdalouye Wade, and a former minister, is at the heart of multiple fraud investigations. A number of other former ministers have also been accused.
  • Eight Senegalese being held prisoner by a branch of a Casamance separatist rebel group were released on December 9th.
  • Following its Article IV consultation and fourth policy support instrument review, the IMF was satisfied with Senegal's programme implementation.
  • The government passed the 2013 budget on December 9th. Spending is planned to rise only marginally by 1.9% to CFAfr2.19trn (US$4.4bn). Revenue is predicted to rise by 5.2% to CFAfr1.81trn.

  January 23, 2013

Economy:

• Background

  Senegal: Economic background

  Real gross domestic product by sector
  (% share of GDP)
  	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007
  Agriculture	17.6	17.3	17.7	16.6	16.0
  Industry	19.8	20.1	20.0	19.2	19.4
  Services	62.6	62.6	62.3	64.1	64.6
  Source: Economist Intelligence Unit.

  Download text file (csv format)

  Measured by expenditure, GDP is dominated by private consumption, which accounted for an estimated 79.1% in 2007. The contribution of government consumption to GDP declined from 13.9% in 2004 to 12.7% in 2006, before rising again in 2007, to 13%, driven by increasing expenditure to cover energy and food price subsidies. The contribution of investment has increased significantly, from 20.4% in 2004 to 25.2% of GDP in 2007, largely reflecting the stepping up of public works.

  November 04, 2008

• Structure

  Senegal: Economic structure

  Data and charts: Annual trends charts

  
  

  

  January 23, 2013

• Outlook

  Senegal: Country outlook

  Senegal: Country outlook

  FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT

  POLITICAL STABILITY: Having come under pressure ahead of the March 2012 presidential election, Senegal's record as one of the most democratically developed and stable polities in Sub-Saharan Africa was reaffirmed by the peaceful transfer of power to a new president, Macky Sall, after the former incumbent, Abdoulaye Wade, conceded defeat. There had been widespread anti-Wade protests, but Mr Wade's swift concession and decision not to challenge the result averted the possibility of even greater unrest.

  ELECTION WATCH: With the backing of all other opposition candidates, Mr Sall, a former prime minister, was elected as Senegal's new president in the second round of the election on March 25th. He has promised to shorten the presidential term from seven to five years, so no presidential election is expected until at least mid-2017. Mr Sall's Benno Bokk Yakaar coalition took 119 of the 150 seats in the National Assembly in the July legislative election, with the Parti démocratique sénégalais (PDS) a distant second with 12. Signs of strain within the alliance emerged only three months in, and it is conceivable that it could fracture by the time of the next legislative election, due by 2017, given that the constituent parties will not have the unifying experience of opposition and may want to stake out their own territory. Former PDS luminaries have since established their own parties, which may weaken the party further. Senate elections were due in September 2012, but the upper house was abolished two weeks beforehand in order to save money.

  INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS: Despite universal international support for his election, Mr Sall will concentrate on domestic issues early on. The fragile post-coup civilian administration in Guinea-Bissau will focus on restoring domestic stability rather than assisting Senegal's anti-separatist campaign in Casamance, where rebels reportedly draw support from kinsmen in Guinea-Bissau. Relations with Guinea may improve, given that the Guinean president, Alpha Condé, had accused Mr Wade of complicity in a mid-2011 attempted assassination. Disputes over Air Senegal's expansion are unlikely to damage regional relations seriously. France (Senegal's main trading partner) and the US have welcomed the peaceful transfer of power, while relations with China and the Gulf States are flourishing. Relations with The Gambia will remain volatile, souring following the execution of two Senegalese prisoners in Banjul, the capital of The Gambia, in September, but warming in December after The Gambia's involvement in securing the release of Senegalese prisoners held by the MFDC.

  POLICY TRENDS: The new president has made a bold start in unpicking the patronage networks of his predecessor, auditing a number of government projects and institutions, and shutting down 59 state bodies in order to save public money and restore investor confidence. He will also focus on rural development and bringing down the cost of living rather than high-profile infrastructure projects, and has abolished the upper house in order to direct more money into flood prevention. Senegal retains IMF approval for its reform programme; the Fund approved a new three-year policy support instrument in December 2010 to assist economic reform through reducing the fiscal deficit, increasing transparency, encouraging the private sector and strengthening the financial sector. The new government will continue to reduce private-sector arrears. It targets annual real GDP growth of 7%--an unrealistic figure given the economy's structural constraints, let alone the adverse global economic conditions. Nonetheless, higher investment, particularly in energy, infrastructure, agriculture, fisheries, tourism, textiles, information technology and increasingly mining, will encourage growth. The former government's energy plan, Plan Takkal, expected to cost US$1.5bn in 2012-15, is being audited. A number of former ministers are also being investigated for corruption and abuse of office. With the US$500m Eurobond issue of May 2011, Senegal has reached its IMF-agreed ceiling for non-concessional borrowing. The country has reversed its slippage in the World Bank's Doing Business competitiveness survey, climbing three places in 2012 to 153rd out of 183 countries. A review of customs and tax codes, as well as plans to reduce bureaucratic delays, should improve the business environment.

  ECONOMIC GROWTH: Economic growth rebounded in 2012 to an estimated 3.9% owing in large part to a recovery in agricultural output. Growth should continue to accelerate over the forecast period, driven by infrastructure investment (albeit slimmed down) funded by the US$500m Eurobond issued in 2011. Agriculture will continue to benefit from government investment in horticulture. Industrial production should also rise as power reliability improves and cement and phosphates output continues to recover. A pick-up in iron ore exploitation, having stalled again in 2012, remains a distant prospect. Services growth will be led by banking and telecommunications, as well as by Dakar's expanded air and sea logistics capacity. Private consumption, restrained by higher consumer prices in 2012, will pick up over the forecast period, contributing to an acceleration of real GDP growth from an estimated 3.9% in 2012 to 5.1% in 2017. Deepening ties with China will also boost investment.

  INFLATION: Food remains the primary driver of price growth (also felt through the enlarged weighting of the restaurants sub-index). Higher domestic food production, government subsidies and price caps on essential goods will help to anchor local food prices. Having dipped to 1.4% in 2012 as global commodity prices eased and agricultural output recovered, average inflation is forecast to pick up only marginally, to 1.7% in 2013-14, as the currency stabilises and global commodity prices fall. Rising global commodity prices from 2015 and robust domestic demand will see inflation accelerate to 2.3% in 2015-17.

  EXCHANGE RATES: The CFA franc--which is pegged to the euro at CFAfr655.96:EUR1--will fluctuate against the US dollar in line with the euro:dollar exchange rate. Having recovered against the US dollar over the second half of 2012, we now expect the euro to firm slightly in 2013 as financial turmoil in the euro zone settles, risk tolerance of global investors returns and the external position for many euro zone economies improves, despite a persistently weak economic outlook. The euro-pegged franc is forecast to remain broadly stable in 2013 at CFAfr511:US$1, before resuming its downward trend to CFAfr518:US$ in 2014. This downward trend is expected to reverse only in 2016-17. A euro zone break-up, although now much less likely, would lead to significant volatility.

  EXTERNAL SECTOR: Lower global commodity prices will offset an improvement in local output in the early part of the forecast period, and US-dollar-denominated exports are forecast to edge up to an average of US$2.9bn in 2013-15, before rising to US$3.1bn in 2017. The import bill is expected to fall slightly, averaging US$5.45bn in 2013-14, owing to lower non-oil commodity prices, before rising to US$5.9bn in 2017 as domestic demand accelerates and global commodity prices rise. Tourism receipts are expected to improve only modestly given their vulnerability to economic weakness in their primary source, western Europe. Donor transfers and remittances will be constrained by hard-pressed public finances and weak labour markets in the US and the euro zone. The current-account deficit is forecast to narrow from an estimated 12% of GDP in 2012 to an average of 8.8% of GDP in 2013-14. We envisage that the deficit will narrow further to 6.9% of GDP by 2017, owing partly to an expected increase in gold output and services exports, with Senegal positioning itself as a regional transport hub. The benefits of the stalled Falémé iron ore project are unlikely to materialise during the forecast period.

  January 08, 2013

• Forecast

  Senegal: 5-year forecast summary

  Outlook for 2013-17: Forecast summary

  Forecast summary
  (% unless otherwise indicated)
  	2012a	2013b	2014b	2015b	2016b	2017b
  Real GDP growth	3.9	4.3	4.5	4.8	4.8	5.1
  Industrial production growth	4.3	5.0	6.0	6.6	7.0	8.0
  Gross agricultural production growth	4.0	3.8	3.6	3.7	3.4	3.4
  Consumer price inflation (av)	1.4c	1.5	1.9	2.3	2.3	2.3
  Lending rate	14.3	14.3	14.3	14.1	14.2	14.0
  Government balance (% of GDP)	-6.8	-5.8	-5.1	-4.6	-4.4	-4.1
  Exports of goods fob (US$ m)	2,539	2,822	2,870	2,884	3,012	3,095
  Imports of goods fob (US$ m)	-5,772	-5,537	-5,502	-5,500	-5,734	-5,896
  Current-account balance (US$ m)	-1,508	-1,186	-1,085	-1,037	-1,113	-1,157
  Current-account balance (% of GDP)	-12.0	-8.8	-7.8	-7.2	-7.1	-6.9
  External debt (year-end; US$ m)	4,231	4,228	4,180	4,093	4,018	3,938
  Exchange rate CFAfr:US$ (av)	510.2	500.7	513.5	530.1	520.6	520.0
  Exchange rate CFAfr:¥100 (av)	637.7	569.0	568.9	571.5	547.3	553.2
  Exchange rate CFAfr:€ (end-period)	656.0	656.0	656.0	656.0	656.0	656.0
  Exchange rate CFAfr:SDR (end-period)	776.8	766.5	788.7	780.2	777.1	776.9
  a Economist Intelligence Unit estimates. b Economist Intelligence Unit forecasts. c Actual.

  Download the numbers in Excel

  Download text file (csv format)

  January 23, 2013

View detailed map

Country Briefing

Total area

197,161 sq km

Population

13.6m (2012 Economist Intelligence Unit estimate)

Main towns

Population in '000 (World Gazetteer estimates, 2012)

Dakar (capital): 2,682

Thiès: 282

Mbour: 234

Kaolack: 182

Climate

Tropical

Weather in Dakar (altitude 40 metres)

Hottest months, September-October, 24-32°C; coldest month, January, 18-26°C; driest months, April-May, 1 mm average rainfall; wettest month, August, 254 mm average rainfall

Languages

French, Wolof, other local languages

Measures

Metric system

Currency

CFA franc (CFAfr), fixed to the euro, backed by a guarantee from the Banque de France; it was devalued from CFAfr50:FFr1 to CFAfr100:FFr1 in 1994 and has been pegged at CFAfr655.96:€1 since France adopted the euro in 1999

Time

GMT

Public holidays

January 1st; April 4th (Independence Day); May 1st; Christian holidays of Christmas, All Saints' Day, Assumption and variable dates for Easter Monday and Ascension Day; all Islamic holidays are observed in accordance with the lunar calendar, which may mean that the following dates are approximate: Mawlid al-Nabi (the birthday of the Prophet, February 4th); Eid al-Fitr (end of Ramadan, August 19th); Eid al-Adha (Feast of the Sacrifice, October 26th); Islamic New Year (November 15th)

January 23, 2013