Rwanda

Politics:

• Analysis

  Rwanda politics: Quick View -Opposition leader sentenced to eight years in

  Event

  Victoire Ingabire, the leader of the Brussels-based opposition party, the United Democratic Forces (UDF), has been found guilty of treason and sentenced to eight years in prison.

  Analysis

  Ms Ingabire had returned to Rwanda from exile in the Netherlands at the start of 2010 to run against Paul Kagame in the presidential election. She was barred from contesting in the election and has been on trial since September 2011 accused of threatening state security, genocide denial and promoting ethnic division. She withdrew from her trial in the capital, Kigali, in April this year alleging that the charges brought against her were politically motivated and that the court was not independent. Despite her walkout, the court's presiding judge, Alice Rulisa, ruled that proceedings would continue. On October 30th Ms Ingabire was found guilty on two charges-conspiring to harm the country through war and terror, and minimising the 1994 genocide-acquitted on four other charges, and sentenced to eight years in jail.

  Ms Ingabire continues to deny the allegations; her lawyer has said she will appeal the ruling and the integrity of the trial has been called into question by many. Human Rights Watch called it a flawed trial with politically motivated charges. Amnesty International's acting Africa director, Sarah Jackson, called for a prompt and fair appeal, saying that the trial was "marred by the court's failure to ensure that evidence was properly tested, combined with the prosecution's disregard for due process". One witness during the trial, a former Rwandan rebel spokesman, Michel Habimana, accused officials of intimidation.

  Regardless of the outcome of the appeal, the trial highlights the tension and heavy political influence at the heart of the judicial process. Ms Ingabire was charged under the country's genocide ideology law, a statute ostensibly aimed at outlawing pro-genocide or divisive activities, but which human-rights groups say has been used to suppress political dissent.

  November 01, 2012

• Background

  Rwanda: Key figures

  Paul Kagame

  Mr Kagame has been president since 2000, but even before then, as vice-president, he was considered to be the real power in the post-1994 government. Mr Kagame's position remains strong and he has yet to face any serious challenge from the ranks of the Rwandan Patriotic Front (RPF). Austere, unostentatious and ruthless, Mr Kagame sets high standards and is not reluctant to fire people who fall below these. The credibility of his commitment to good governance is, however, undermined by his intolerance of dissent. Mr Kagame was accused in late 2006 by a French judge of masterminding the assassination of then president, Juvenal Habyarimana, in 1994. Mr Kagame denied the charges and broke off relations with France.

  Emmanuel Ndahiro

  The secretary-general of the national security services and the most powerful person in the country after the president, Mr Ndahiro keeps a low public profile. He remains highly influential nonetheless, and is often charged with particularly sensitive missions, such as negotiations during 2006 with Joseph Kabila, the president of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), about Rwanda's security concerns regarding Congolese elections that year.

  Charles Murigande

  The secretary-general of the RPF and foreign minister since November 2002, Mr Murigande is also the ex-chairman of the powerful parliamentary forum. Mr Murigande has played a leading role in improving diplomatic relations with Uganda, following their deterioration after the clashes between the armed forces of the two countries in the DRC in 1999-2000.

  James Musoni

  Appointed as finance minister in March 2006 after joining the cabinet only in October 2005, Mr Musoni was previously the head of the Rwanda Revenue Authority (RRA), where his performance was widely commended. An economic liberal, Mr Musoni has continued the policy direction set by the long-serving former finance minister, Donald Kaberuka, though with perhaps less assurance. Mr Musoni is liked by donors and respected by his cabinet colleagues.

  Marcel Gatsinzi

  The defence minister since November 2002, Mr Gatsinzi is a Hutu and former member of the Forces armees rwandaises (FAR), which fought the RPF for control of Rwanda in 1990-94. Mr Gatsinzi's political position became precarious when he was denounced during gacaca (quasi-traditional justice) hearings in 2005 for his alleged role during the genocide. Yet, Mr Gatsinzi hung on, retaining if not the trust then at least the continued tolerance of the RPF elite.

  May 01, 2008

• Structure

  Rwanda: Political structure

  Official name

  République rwandaise

  Form of state

  Unitary republic

  Legal system

  Based on Belgian law and a constitution introduced in June 2003

  National legislature

  National Assembly, with 80 members: 53 directly elected and 27 indirectly elected by representatives of special interest groups; Senate, with 24 members: 16 indirectly elected and eight appointed by the president

  National elections

  September 2008 (legislative), August 2010 (presidential); next legislative election due in September 2015, next presidential election due in August 2017

  Head of state

  The president, elected by universal suffrage to a second and final seven-year term in August 2010

  National government

  Appointed by the president in September 2010

  Main political parties and political forces

  Rwandan Patriotic Front (RPF), Parti démocrate centriste (PDC), Parti libéral (PL), Parti social démocrate (PSD), Ideal Democratic Party (IDP); the externally based opponents of the government include Forces de résistance pour la démocratie (FRD), Rassemblement pour le retour des réfugiés et la démocratie au Rwanda (RDR), and rebels based in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Forces démocratiques de libération du Rwanda (FDLR), which include the former Interahamwe and members of the former Rwandan army (Forces armées rwandaises-FAR)

  Key ministers

  President: Paul Kagame

  Prime minister: Pierre Damien Habumuremyi

  Agriculture & animal resources: Agnes Kalibata

  Cabinet affairs & information: Protais Musoni

  Defence: James Kabarebe

  East African Community: Monique Mukaruliza

  Education: Vincent Biruta

  Energy & water: Isumbingabo Emma Francoise

  Finance & economic planning: John Rwangombwa

  Foreign affairs & co-operation: Louise Mushikiwabo

  Gender & family promotion: Aloysia Inyumba

  Health: Agnes Binagwaho

  Infrastructure: Albert Nsengiyumva

  Internal security: Sheikh Hererimana Mussa Fazil

  Justice/attorney-general: Tharcisse Karugarama

  Local government: James Musoni

  Natural resources: Stanislas Kamanzi

  President's office: Venantia Tugireyezu

  Public service & labour: Anastase Murekezi

  Sports & culture: Joseph Habineza

  Trade & industry: François Kanimba

  Youth, sports & culture: Jean Philbert Nsengimana

  Central bank governor: Claver Gatete

  November 01, 2012

Economy:

• Background

  Rwanda: Economic background

  Real gross domestic product by sector
  (% share of GDP)
  	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007
  Agriculture	41.3	41.2	42.3	39.9	36.9
  Industry	21.3	20.7	20.5	20.3	21.7
  Services	37.4	38.1	37.3	39.7	41.4
  Source: Economist Intelligence Unit.

  Download text file (csv format)

  May 01, 2008

• Structure

  Rwanda: Economic structure

  Economic structure: Annual indicators

  	2008a	2009a	2010a	2011b	2012b
  GDP at market prices (Rwfr bn)	2,565.3	2,964.1	3,215.1b	3,647.6	4,164.7
  GDP (US$ bn)	4.7	5.2	5.5b	6.1	6.8
  Real GDP growth (%)	11.2	4.1	7.2	8.6	7.0
  Consumer price inflation (av; %)	15.4	10.4	2.3	5.7a	6.6
  Population (m)	10.0	10.3	10.6	10.9	11.3
  Exports of goods fob (US$ m)	257.0	188.0	297.0	372.6	357.0
  Imports of goods fob (US$ m)	880.0	961.0	1,084.0	1,367.8	1,410.6
  Current-account balance (US$ m)	-252.0	-383.0	-421.0	-683.4	-652.2
  Foreign-exchange reserves excl gold (US$ m)	596.3	742.7	812.8	1,050.0a	1,008.2
  Exchange rate Rwfr:US$ (av)	549.3	568.2	583.1	601.8a	615.8
  a Actual. b Economist Intelligence Unit estimates.

  Download the numbers in Excel

  Origins of gross domestic product 2009	% of total	Components of gross domestic product 2009	% of total
  Agriculture	34.2	Private consumption	81.1
  Industry	14.5	Government consumption	14.6
  Services	51.3	Gross fixed investment	21.8
  		Exports of goods & services	11.7
  		Imports of goods & services	-29.2
  Principal exports, fob 2011	US$ m	Principal imports, cif 2011	US$ m
  Coffee	96.8	Consumption goods	478.0
  Tea	63.9	Intermediate goods	470.0
  Cassiterite (tin ore)	74.6	Capital goods	392.4
  Coltan	38.6	Energy	289.1
  Main destinations of exports 2011a	% of total	Main origins of imports 2011a	% of total
  Kenya	30.1	Kenya	18.1
  China	13.5	Uganda	16.4
  Democratic Republic of Congo	12.0	US	10.4
  Malaysia	8.8	UAE	8.8
  a Derived from partners' trade returns.

  Download the numbers in Excel

  Download text file (csv format)

  November 01, 2012

• Outlook

  Rwanda: Country outlook

  Rwanda: Country outlook

  FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT

  OVERVIEW: The president, Paul Kagame, will dominate the political scene and the governing Rwandan Patriotic Front (RPF) will face little political opposition. The government faces a stark choice: to demonstrate that it is no longer supporting the M23 rebellion in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) or to maintain its denial and risk losing the support of donors. The DRC and Rwandan armed forces are likely to collaborate to contain the threat posed by disaffected Congolese Tutsis and a militia opposed to the Rwandan government, Forces démocratiques de libération du Rwanda (FDLR). Progress on the government's privatisation programme will pick up in 2013 after slowing in 2012. The Economist Intelligence Unit expects strong private-sector demand, owing to the high quality of the companies being divested. After real GDP growth slowed to an estimated 7% in 2012, we forecast that it will average 7.4% in the 2013-14 forecast period as a result of higher global demand, increased foreign investment and an improved power supply. Inflation is forecast to fall to 6.4% in 2013 owing to the second-order effects from lower food and oil prices. It is expected to pick up slightly to 6.7% in 2014 as high domestic and external demand adds to price pressures. Rwanda was elected to a non-permanent seat on the UN Security Council on October 18th 2012. South Africa, the DRC and Zimbabwe opposed the bid because of Rwanda's alleged activity in the DRC.

  DOMESTIC POLITICS: The overwhelming re-election of Mr Kagame to a second term in 2010 ensured his position as president until 2017, when he should step down in respect of the constitution's two-term presidential limit. Although neither he nor the RPF will face an electoral challenge in 2013-14, their Hutu opponents will seek to strengthen their position in the hope of ultimately presenting a challenge at the ballot box or, more probably, by taking up arms against the government. The Hutu-supremacist FDLR is ensconced in the eastern DRC but is under sustained military pressure and lacks international support, thus posing no serious threat to the government. The same, however, was true of the RPF during most of its long exile, and the FDLR may also strengthen in time, although we believe this to be unlikely during 2013-14. A more immediate challenge to Mr Kagame and the RPF comes from the growing number of Tutsis who used to support the party but now consider it to be corrupt and nepotistic. Worryingly for the president, these include a number of senior officers in the armed forces, some of whom have gone into exile-notably Kayumba Nyamwasa, a South Africa-based former chief of staff of the armed forces, and Patrick Karegeya, a former head of military intelligence. Some have been arrested, most notably the air-force commander, Lieutenant-General Charles Muhire, in 2010, and four senior military officers, including the head of military intelligence, Brigadier-General Richard Rutatina, in January 2012. Others remain in position and are biding their time. We still believe, however, that Mr Kagame commands the loyalty of the bulk of the armed forces and that a coup attempt, although a possibility, is not imminent. The RPF will remain the single largest party in the legislature, and the next parliamentary election is not due until 2015. The challenge for credible opposition parties, most of which are in exile, is to increase international pressure to improve the democratic process in Rwanda. The RPF professes a commitment to political pluralism, but in practice is not prepared to loosen its grip on power and allow space for genuine non-violent opposition. Mr Kagame has said that he will stand down at the next presidential election, in 2017, in keeping with the two-term constitutional limit. He would endure much international criticism were he to abandon this pledge, and we expect that such a decision will be left, publicly at least, until much closer to the 2017 election.

  INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS: Rwanda's international relations are in one of their most crucial phases since the RPF came to power in 1994. Since then foreign donors, particularly the UK and the US, have been generous benefactors of the government, providing between one-third and one-half of annual government revenue. However, following the publication in June 2012 of an interim report by a UN Group of Experts, which accused the Rwandan government of supporting a military rebellion in the eastern DRC, a number of donors suspended aid to the country at the end of July. Rwanda has long had security concerns about the DRC: the FDLR militia, which is hostile to the current government, is based there. The DRC government has committed itself to disarming and repatriating the FDLR in eastern DRC, but it has had little success. Despite repeated denials, and Rwanda's attempts to discredit the findings of the UN interim report, the Group's final report was leaked in mid-October, stating that Rwanda and Uganda continue to support the M23 rebellion in the DRC. Indeed, the Rwandan defence minister, James Kabarebe, is accused in the report of "commanding" the rebellion. The government is faced with a stark choice: to demonstrate that it is no longer supporting the rebellion or to maintain its denial and risk losing the support of donors. It is still feasible that diplomatic relations with the DRC, which have tended to wax and wane in the past, will improve again rapidly. It is likely that Rwanda will ultimately favour increased collaboration with the Congolese armed forces to contain the threat posed to both countries by the apparent alliance between the FDLR and disaffected Congolese Tutsis. Indeed, a regional bloc of 11 countries, including Rwanda and the DRC, has launched a joint verification mechanism aimed at monitoring troop movements in the eastern DRC. Bilateral discussions between Rwanda and the DRC will also focus on economic co-operation, in particular on how to share gas reserves beneath Lake Kivu, which straddles the countries' border. If reports that Burundi's Forces nationales de libération are intending to return to an armed struggle in collaboration with the FDLR prove accurate, this will serve to strengthen military co-operation between the Rwandan and Burundian governments, which is already extensive-although largely, it seems, on the Rwandan government's terms. Rwanda and France have restored diplomatic relations, but mutual suspicion will persist and we do not expect Franco-Rwandan relations to be particularly warm.

  POLICY TRENDS: A forecast dip in levels of foreign aid will act as a binding constraint on the government's spending plans, and the focus of economic policy may switch to improving the business environment in lieu of higher public spending. The authorities will push ahead with market-oriented reforms as they try to position the country as a regional trading and services hub. This strategy has achieved considerable success in improving the business environment: it takes only two procedures and three days to open a business in Rwanda, according to the World Bank. Further progress is expected in improving land rights and the legal system. An unfunded policy support instrument with the IMF will act primarily as a signal to donors of the Fund's endorsement of government economic policy. The government will continue to adhere to the economic development and poverty reduction strategy, which enjoys a high level of political commitment and the approval of donors, and is fully incorporated into the budgeting process. However, weak governance at a local level will remain a constraint on its implementation. Progress on the government's ambitious privatisation programme will pick up in 2013. It divested its stake in two companies in 2011, but there has been a delay in plans to follow this with MTN Rwanda (the local unit of the South African telecommunications company), Banque commerciale du Rwanda (a leading commercial bank) and Société nationale des assurances du Rwanda (the largest insurance company in the country). When the companies are eventually privatised, in 2013-14, we expect high private-sector demand, owing to excess domestic liquidity and the high quality of the companies.

  ECONOMIC GROWTH: Economic growth is expected to accelerate in 2013, largely owing to the services sector, which has become the main engine of economic growth. Growth will be supported by robust performance in the agricultural sector, which will benefit from good weather in 2012. Manufacturing will be constrained by strong regional competition, mainly from Kenya, and high electricity prices. Poor infrastructure will remain the largest barrier to expansion, and it will not be helped by a slowdown in the growth of government spending owing to aid cuts. US legislation to curb the export of "conflict minerals" from the DRC may temper export earnings, although growing regional demand in East Africa will prevent a hard landing. Electricity generation from methane gas in Lake Kivu is expected to add significantly to the national electricity supply. After real GDP growth slowed to an estimated 7% in 2012, we forecast that it will average 7.4% in 2013-14, as a result of higher global demand, increased foreign investment and an improved power supply. Inflation has remained relatively high in 2012, but we expect it to fall in coming months as lower global food and oil prices feed through the system. Moreover, the central bank tightened monetary policy in 2012, which should reduce price pressures. Overall we forecast a fall in the average inflation rate from an estimated 6.6% in 2012 to 6.4% in 2013 as the second-order effects from lower food and oil prices pass through the system. We forecast a slight pick-up to 6.7% in 2014 as high domestic and external demand adds to price pressures. The outlook for the Rwandan franc is uncertain, as the authorities have agreed with a Fund recommendation to move the exchange-rate system away from a peg to a more market-based arrangement, allowing greater flexibility. Years of high inflation caused a real-exchange-rate appreciation, and the currency may still be overvalued. We, therefore, forecast that the exchange rate will slip to an average of Rwfr631:US$1 in 2013 and Rwfr641:US$1 in 2014. The currency could depreciate at a faster rate, particularly if donors formally withdraw the aid pledges that they have currently suspended.

  EXTERNAL ACCOUNT: The trade deficit will remain wide over 2013-14. On the import side we expect continued growth in capital and consumer goods to support domestic economic activity. However, export earnings will be hampered by historically low international prices for tea and coffee and a reduction in recorded mining exports as tighter controls are introduced to determine whether minerals exported from Rwanda are of Rwandan or Congolese origin. Nevertheless, export earnings will increase as the global economy recovers, stimulating demand for Rwandan exports. As usual, trade with neighbouring countries worth tens of millions of US dollars will go unrecorded. Current transfers will record a surplus because of remittances and donor inflows, although aid will be lower than in previous years. Overall, the current-account deficit is forecast at 9.7% of GDP in 2013 and 9.3% of GDP in 2014.

  November 02, 2012

View detailed map

Country Briefing

Land area

26,338 sq km

Population

11.3m (2012 estimate, IMF)

Population density

429 people per sq km

Main town

Kigali (capital), population 1.17m (2012 estimate, World Gazetteer)

Climate

Tropical, moderated by altitude

Weather in Kigali

Average annual temperature, 19°C; average monthly rainfall, 85 mm

Languages

English, French and Kinyarwanda

Religion

Catholic (56.5% in 2001); Protestant (26%); Adventist (11.1%); Muslim (4.6%); indigenous beliefs (0.1%); none (1.7%)

Measures

Metric system

Currency

Rwandan franc (Rwfr)

Fiscal year

July-June

Time

2 hours ahead of GMT

Public holidays

Fixed: January 1st (New Year's Day), Jan 28th (Democracy Day), April 7th (Genocide Memorial Day), May 1st (Labour Day), July 1st (Independence Day), July 4th (Liberation Day), August 15th (Assumption), September 25th (Kamarampaka/Republic Day), October 1st (Patriotism Day), November 1st (All Saints' Day), December 25th-26th (Christmas)

Moveable: Good Friday, Easter Monday

August 01, 2012