Under Portugal's bail-out agreement with international creditors, the government is committed to making permanent spending cuts totalling EUR4bn-the equivalent of about 2.5% of GDP-over 2014 and 2015. The prime minister, Pedro Passos Coelho, has framed this as an opportunity to rethink the role and functions of the state. The plan, coming on top of a 2013 budget that already includes the biggest tax increases in recent history, is fuelling a heated political debate, not only on the social and economic impact of the planned cuts, but also on the future of the welfare state that emerged from the country's 1974 revolution. Achieving consensus will be difficult.
In October 2012, the troika of the European Commission, IMF and European Central Bank (ECB) agreed to give Portugal an extra year to meet previously agreed budget deficits targets, setting the new deficit goals at 5% of GDP in 2012 (adjusted from 4.5% previously) and 4.5% in 2013 (3% previously). To meet the new 2014 target of 2.5% of GDP, the government will have to introduce savings equivalent to a further 1.75% of GDP in that year, after a planned consolidation equivalent to 3% of GDP in 2013. To achieve this, the government is undertaking a "comprehensive expenditure review" to identify "additional sources of savings" amounting to EUR4bn. The review is due to be concluded by mid-February 2013 and fiscal consolidation plans for 2014-15 will be fully detailed in the 2013 update of Portugal's stability programme, which has to be approved by the troika.
Expenditure cuts will total 2.5% of GDP
After almost three years of increasingly tough fiscal measures and two years of economic recession, the scale of the additional expenditure cuts planned for 2014 onwards has moved the debate in Portugal on from the effectiveness or otherwise of austerity to the size and nature of the state itself. The idea of seeking a political and social consensus on far-reaching changes to what the state provides and who pays for it has been instigated by Mr Passos Coelho with the full support of the troika. The IMF has called for an "open debate" in which political parties and social partners can reach agreement on appropriate levels of spending and taxation.
The planned debate is based on an acknowledgement that the current balance of state spending and taxation is unsustainable. Expenditure has been climbing for many years, particularly on public wages and social transfers, which account for more than two-thirds of total state spending. The IMF has identified what it calls a "weak link" between the goals the state has been trying achieve and the actual spending allocations made in annual budgets. Correcting this imbalance is almost certain to involve further reductions in public-sector employment, more changes to state wage structures, reforms to pension and other social payments and significant changes in the level of public services the state provides and how they are paid for.
Political consensus on state reform unlikely
For the centre-right government and the troika, reform is essentially an issue of rationalising state spending, making public services more efficient and ensuring that the redistribution of state income through social transfers is more equitable. Although Portugal spends a relatively high proportion of state revenue on pensions, international benchmarks show these to be relatively inefficient in alleviating poverty among the elderly, for example. However, the idea of cutting back public services and introducing more extensive means-tested payments has touched a raw nerve in Portugal, where many see a national health service, universal free schooling, old-age pensions and welfare benefits as inalienable "conquests" of the 1974 revolution that overthrew 48 years of right-wing authoritarian rule.
Vitor Gaspar, the minister of finance, says there is "an enormous divergence between what the Portuguese believe the state should deliver and the amount of taxes they are prepared to pay". However, any hope of achieving political consensus on how to close this gap seems remote. The centre-left Socialist Party (PS), the main opposition party, has firmly rejected Mr Passos Coelho's overtures to engage in a national debate on reforms, with Antonio Jose Seguro, the PS leader, describing the government proposal as an attack on the welfare state. Trade unions, the Communists, the radical Left Bloc (BE) and the left-wing of the PS all portray the plan as an attempt to advance what they see as the prime minister's "neo-liberal" ideology, which they believe would involve privatising large sections of the public health and education services.
Root-and-branch reform or simple cuts?
Mr Passos Coelho has made clear that his plans will not require any changes to the 1976 constitution, which enshrines rights such as free basic education and access to the national health service. Such changes would, in any case, require the backing of the PS, which would clearly not be forthcoming. Lacking any prospect of a meaningful national consensus, the government will be limited to pushing EUR4bn in spending cuts through parliament in the 2014 and 2015 budgets. Even commentators close to Mr Passos Coelho's Social Democratic Party (PSD) believe that there has never been any likelihood of a political consensus or any coherent government plan for state reform, describing the prime minister's idea of "remaking" the welfare state as mere window-dressing for another round of painful cuts.
According to government leaks reported in the Portuguese media, the bulk of cuts will fall on social security (EUR2.7bn) and education (EUR1bn), with spending on health being reduced by only EUR180m and a further EUR500m in savings planned in justice, defence and home affairs. This would make a total of EUR4.4bn in cuts over 2014 and 2015, with EUR832m of this amount expected to be brought forward to 2013. These will be difficult cuts to push though. But expected proposals to raise university tuition fees and the small charges made for some health services, which were already more than doubled in January 2012, as well as plans to extend mean-testing in these areas are likely to prove the most controversial measures in a political and social climate where a previous broad consensus in support of the adjustment programme is already being severely tested.
December 14, 2012
Pedro Passos Coelho
Mr Passos Coelho became prime minister after the general election in June 2011. He heads a government coalition of the centre-right Social Democratic Party (PSD) and right-wing Popular Party (CDS-PP). Although relatively young (aged 48), he has long been well known in the PSD, owing to his leadership of the youth section of the party in the early 1990s. He was absent from the national stage for some time, working in the private sector, then returned to active politics late in the last decade and became PSD leader on his second attempt in April 2010. Mr Passos Coelho is socially conservative, and belongs to the more economically liberal wing of the PSD, but he has rowed back from pledges to go "beyond the troika" recommendations in implementing Portugal's economic adjustment programme. Although the decline in Mr Passos Coelho's public approval ratings during his first year in office has not been dramatic, it will be difficult to reverse.
Vítor Gaspar
A 51-year-old economist and academic, Vítor Gaspar is minister of finance in the current PSD/CDS-PP government. Mr Gaspar is one of four cabinet ministers who are not affiliated with the political parties of the coalition and he was not well known to the domestic public at the time of his appointment. He is, conversely, well known among European economists and policymakers, having spent several years at the European Central Bank (ECB) as head of the research department (in 1998-2004) and as head of a key European commission think-tank, the Bureau of Economic Policy Advisers (since 2007). His main challenge will be to deliver the policy targets defined by his government and in particular the short-term objectives of the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with the European Commission, the IMF and the ECB. His ability to deal with a bloated public administration and political opposition in an economically depressed environment will be essential to the government's success and survival, as well as Portugal's continuation as a euro area member.
Carlos Moedas
Carlos Moedas, at 42-years of age, is one of the youngest members of government and heads the team, ESAME, that closely follows the implementation of the MoU across ministries. He was unknown to the general public before joining the government. His career differs from those of most government members, mainly because it was in the private sector. An engineer, Mr Moedas then pursued an MBA at Harvard University. He held positions in property investment, as well as at banks such as Goldman Sachs and Eurohypo and as an engineer at Suez Lyonnaise des Eaux. Although not a minister, Mr Moedas reports directly to the prime minister and is, together with Mr Gaspar, one of the most vocal government members in dealing with international organisations and investors.
José António Seguro
Mr Seguro, a 40-year-old graduate in political science, replaced José Sócrates as the leader of the main opposition Socialist Party (PS) at an election in July 2011. Currently a member of parliament, he also has been a member of the European parliament (in 1999-2001) and occupied several ministerial posts in earlier PS governments (1995-99 and 2001-02). He also led the youth section of the PS in 1990-94. As a PS leader in opposition, his criticism of the government's general fiscal and economic stance has been limited, given that the PS also signed the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU. He has focussed more on opposing further tax measures and the dilution of social security and labour market protection, a strategy aimed at shoring up party's left flank. Perceived as lacking charisma, he is not guaranteed to win the next election, although the expected decline in living standards over the coming years will ensure he is in a position to mount a strong challenge.
Aníbal Cavaco Silva
Mr Cavaco Silva, 73, was elected for a second term as president of the republic in January 2011, securing victory in the first round. A former PSD leader and prime minister between 1985 and 1995, Mr Cavaco Silva came out of retirement from active politics to stand at the 2006 presidential election. In his first term, Mr Cavaco Silva, an economics professor, backed the then PS government's economic reforms and was a steadfast defender of political stability, but later became more critical of the government. At present, even though he is not close to Mr Passos Coelho, the president has been supportive of the government's fiscal and economic policy. He is expected to continue to emphasise the importance of avoiding measures that could undermine political and social stability, although the population's resentment against government austerity measures has unexpectedly been directed towards him.
August 20, 2012
Official name
Portuguese Republic
Form of state
Parliamentary republic, based on constitution of 1976, amended most recently in 2004
National legislature
Unicameral Assembléia da República (parliament) of 230 members, who are elected for a maximum term of four years
Electoral system
Universal direct suffrage from the age of 18; the d'Hondt system of proportional representation is used in 20 multimember constituencies
National elections
Last general (legislative) election took place on June 5th 2011; the next one is due by 2015. Next local elections will take place in 2013
Head of state
President, directly elected for a maximum of two consecutive five-year terms; currently Aníbal Cavaco Silva (independent, but formerly of the PSD), elected to his second term on January 23rd 2011. The presidential election will take place in January 2016
National government
Council of Ministers, led by the prime minister, who is appointed by the president; the legislative programme must be approved by the Assembléia da República
Main political parties
Social Democratic Party (PSD, 108 seats in parliament); Socialist Party (PS, 74 seats); Popular Party (CDS-PP, 24 seats); Portuguese Communist Party (PCP)/Green Ecologist Party (16 seats); Left Bloc (BE, eight seats)
Prime minister: Pedro Passos Coelho (PSD)
Council of ministers (ministers of state)
State & foreign affairs: Paulo Portas (CDS-PP)
State & finance: Vítor Gaspar (independent)
Key ministers
Agriculture, marine affairs, the environment & spatial planning: Assunção Cristas (CDS-PP)
Defence: José Pedro Aguiar Branco (PSD)
Economy & employment: Álvaro Santos Pereira (independent)
Education & science: Nuno Crato (independent)
Health: Paulo Macedo (independent)
Home affairs: Miguel Macedo (PSD)
Justice: Paula Teixeira da Cruz (PSD)
Parliamentary affairs: Miguel Relvas (PSD)
Solidarity & social security: Pedro Mota Soares (CDS-PP)
Central bank governor
Carlos da Silva Costa
December 01, 2012
Outlook for 2013-17
Review
December 01, 2012
Fact sheet
| Annual data | 2011 | Historical averages (%) | 2007-11 |
| Population (m) | 10.6 | Population growth | 0.1 |
| GDP (US$ bn; market exchange rate) | 237.9 | Real GDP growth | -0.2 |
| GDP (US$ bn; purchasing power parity) | 270.0 | Real domestic demand growth | -1.1 |
| GDP per head (US$; market exchange rate) | 22,361 | Inflation | 1.8 |
| GDP per head (US$; purchasing power parity) | 25,383 | Current-account balance (% of GDP) | -10.0 |
| Exchange rate (av) US$:€ | 1.39 | FDI inflows (% of GDP) | 1.9 |
Download the numbers in Excel
Background: Portugal emerged from decades of dictatorship after a bloodless military coup in 1974. A series of provisional governments ran the country until a parliamentary election was held in 1976. Portugal joined the European Community, now the EU, alongside Spain in 1986 and was in the group of the first 11 countries to adopt the euro in 1999. In 2011, Portugal became the third euro area country to ask for a bail-out from its fellow member states and the IMF.
Political structure: Executive power is vested in the government, which is accountable to the Assembléia da República (parliament). The parliament is a single, 230-seat chamber elected by proportional representation for a term of four years. The president, who is elected directly for a five-year term, is head of state. His powers, although limited, include the right to appoint the prime minister (following a parliamentary vote of confidence), the right to call an election if the government loses the support of parliament, and the ability to refer bills to the constitutional court.
Policy issues: The central policy issues are reducing the large budget deficit and making structural economic reforms that raise the economy's growth potential, as stipulated by the bail-out agreement with the EU and IMF. This will provide official financing for public deficits and debt repayment, but will be accompanied by spending cuts and tax rises, as well as structural reforms for the labour market, some product and professional markets, and privatisation of state property and companies. Large-scale public-works programmes will remain on hold indefinitely. The banking system is still dependent on central bank support, and part of the bail-out funds are being used to recapitalise the banking system.
Taxation: A number of tax rates have been raised in order to tackle the fiscal deficit, and more increases are likely to be necessary. The main value-added tax (VAT) rate was raised to 23% in 2011. Personal income-tax rates have been raised by 1-1.5 percentage points, with a top rate of income tax at 46.5% for salaries over EUR150,000. The rate of corporate income tax has risen by 2.5 percentage points to 27.5%, and rates in most municipalities are higher again. Capital gains tax has been raised from 20% to 21%. Property taxes are set to be raised.
Foreign trade: Portugal runs a significant structural trade deficit. In 2011 goods exports were worth US$59bn and the import bill was US$78bn, giving a trade deficit of US$18bn. The current-account deficit fell to an estimated US$15bn in 2011, from US$23bn in 2010, dropping as a proportion of GDP to 6.5%, from 10% in 2010.
| Major exports 2011 | % of total | Major imports 2011 | % of total |
| Misc industrial supplies | 35.4 | Misc industrial supplies | 28.6 |
| Vehicles, vessels & aircraft | 18.5 | Mineral products | 17.3 |
| Misc consumer goods | 18.1 | Machinery & electrical equipment | 13.5 |
| Machinery & electrical equipment | 8.5 | Vehicles, vessels & aircraft | 12.5 |
| Leading markets 2011 | % of total | Leading suppliers 2011 | % of total |
| Spain | 24.9 | Spain | 31.5 |
| Germany | 13.6 | Germany | 12.3 |
| France | 12.0 | France | 6.9 |
| Angola | 5.4 | Italy | 5.3 |
| EU | 74.0 | EU | 73.0 |
Download the numbers in Excel
Download text file (csv format)
December 01, 2012
Data and charts: Annual trends charts
December 01, 2012
Portugal: Country outlook
FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT
POLITICAL STABILITY: The governing coalition of the Social Democratic Party (PSD) and the Popular Party (CDS-PP) should hold together for much of the 2011-15 parliamentary term, helped by its majority status, but political instability is expected to rise as the country's economic adjustment programme cuts severely into living standards. Portugal's three-year bail-out agreement with the troika of international creditors--the European Commission, IMF and European Central Bank (ECB)--provides fiscal financing into early 2014 in return for deep fiscal cuts and far-reaching reforms that will have a negative impact on a range of vested interests. Mid-way through the programme, the coalition has received broadly positive appraisals from the troika, but relations are likely to become more strained in 2013 as targets become increasingly difficult to meet. The government's domestic standing has been undermined by rising unemployment and recent coalition divisions over sharp increases in personal income tax contained in the draft 2013 finance bill (currently before parliament). With both parties committed to supporting the draft budget and plans to cut a further EUR4bn from spending in 2013, the risk of an imminent political crisis is low. However, coalition infighting and the public backlash have highlighted the risk that the government may not be able to serve its full term.
ELECTION WATCH: The next general election is due by 2015, with a presidential election scheduled for 2016. The government holds a solid majority in parliament, and is expected to remain committed to the bail-out agreement, having been involved in its negotiation. Nevertheless, a fiscal and economic adjustment on the scale being attempted in Portugal bears risks for any kind of government, and another early general election will remain a possibility, although probably not before 2014. Municipal elections are due in 2013, and could provide a pointer for a shift in political sentiment away from the government.
INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS: Portugal's main international relationship will be with the troika of international creditors. Since agreeing a bail-out in May 2011, the government has maintained good relations with the troika. Greater slippage on targets over the coming year will raise tension with the official creditors, but the government will generally acquiesce to their demands. This should ensure that Portugal is granted a second assistance programme, as the Economist Intelligence Unit believes will be necessary to ensure financing beyond 2013. The troika will therefore retain considerable influence over economic and fiscal policy for years to come.
POLICY TRENDS: The government's economic policy plans conform closely to the conditions imposed by the EU/IMF/ECB bail-out programme. Apart from a severe process of fiscal consolidation, the mandated structural economic reforms involve making the labour market more flexible, opening up closed product markets and protected professions, and either privatising large parts of the wider public sector or making them financially viable, stand-alone entities. In healthcare, co-payments by patients are being raised, both to curb use of the healthcare system and to reduce government funding. Pharmaceutical prices are being negotiated down, and healthcare provision is to be moved to larger, more specialised centres. In education, measures focus on cost-cutting and increasing efficiency by merging schools. Judicial reforms aim to increase the efficiency of the system and clear backlogs, but this will be a particularly intractable area. A series of privatisations is under way in the transport, communications and energy sectors.
ECONOMIC GROWTH: The outlook for the economy is poor. Real GDP contracted for the eighth consecutive quarter in July-September 2012 (by 0.8% quarter on quarter), and we expect the fiscal consolidation process to keep the economy in deep recession throughout 2013. Weak GDP growth may return by the end of the forecast period, but even this outlook has downside risks. Domestic demand is expected to be in recession until 2015, but net exports will support the economy, initially through import repression, and later because of more rapid export growth. The economic forecast assumes that Portugal remains in the euro area, but it faces structural economic challenges to do so, and thus the possibility of an even steeper decline in Portuguese GDP upon exit remains.
INFLATION: Inflation (on the EU harmonised measure) fell to 2.2% year on year in October 2012, from 3% in September, as an increase in value-added tax (VAT) in October 2011 dropped out of annual comparisons. Underlying inflation also fell, to 1.1%, and should remain benign as the weak economy curbs pricing power, although further rises in indirect taxes will exert some upward pressure. We expect headline inflation to average 2.8% in 2012, but to be more muted in 2013, at 1.9%, falling to an average of 1.7% during 2014-17. Moderate deflation remains a medium-term risk.
EXCHANGE RATES: Although not our central forecast, there is a high risk that several countries will be forced to leave the euro in 2012-13. Such fears have caused flight from euro assets and partly explain the volatility of the single currency, which has fluctuated in a range between US$1.20:EUR1 and US$1.35:EUR1 during 2012, standing at US$1.27:EUR1 in mid-November. Even assuming that it survives in its present form, the euro will remain volatile in response to shifting risk appetites, protracted economic weakness and lower reserve accumulation by China. We expect it to average US$1.26:EUR1 in 2013 and US$1.25:EUR1 in 2014-17, but there is a significant risk of sharp movements either way.
EXTERNAL SECTOR: The current-account deficit has shrunk rapidly since 2010, briefly returning to a small surplus by mid-2012 for the first time since 1995. This is mainly attributable to the cyclical weakness of imports, but also because external financing to fund the deficit is now harder to obtain. We forecast a further near-term contraction in the trade deficit, which will be offset by large surpluses on the services account, but sustained surpluses on the current account as a whole are unlikely to emerge until 2015-17, as the impact of improved competitiveness is felt.
December 01, 2012
Country forecast overview: Highlights
Country forecast overview: Key indicators
| Key indicators | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 |
| Real GDP growth (%) | -3.0 | -2.8 | -0.5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.8 |
| Consumer price inflation (av, %; EU harmonised measure) | 2.8 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.9 |
| General government budget balance (% of GDP) | -6.1 | -5.5 | -4.4 | -2.9 | -2.0 | -1.3 |
| Current-account balance (% of GDP) | -2.0 | -0.5 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| 3-month interbank rate (av; %) | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 1.8 |
| Exchange rate US$:€ (av) | 1.28 | 1.26 | 1.25 | 1.24 | 1.26 | 1.26 |
| Exchange rate US$:€ (year-end) | 1.29 | 1.26 | 1.24 | 1.26 | 1.26 | 1.26 |
| Exchange rate ¥:€ (av) | 101.88 | 104.31 | 108.60 | 110.13 | 116.13 | 115.09 |
Download the numbers in Excel
Download text file (csv format)
December 01, 2012
Land area
91,906 sq km, of which 36% forestry, 34% arable or under permanent crops, 9% under pasture
Population
10.6m (end-2007 estimate)
Main cities
Estimated population in '000 (end-2006)
Lisbon (capital): 2,100 (2,794 incl greater urban area)
Oporto: 1,280 (incl greater urban area)
Climate
Mediterranean in the south, temperate in the north
Weather in Lisbon (altitude 77 metres)
Hottest month, August, 17-28°C (average daily minimum and maximum); coldest month, January, 8-14°C; driest month, July, 3 mm (average monthly rainfall); wettest month, January, 111 mm
Language
Portuguese
Weights and measures
Metric system. Local measures no longer used included 1 alqueire=3.75 imperial gallons; 1 arroba=15 kg=33.07 lb; 1 fanega=1.5 bushels
Currency
Euro (€) = 100 cents
Fiscal year
January-December
Time
GMT in winter; 1 hour ahead in summer
Public holidays
January 1st (New Year's Day); April 6th-9th (Good Friday and Easter); April 25th (Liberation Day); May 1st (Labour Day); June 7th (Corpus Christi); June 10th (Portugal Day); August 15th (Assumption); October 5th (Proclamation of the Republic); November 1st (All Saints' Day); December 1st (Restoration of Independence); December 8th (Immaculate Conception); December 25th (Christmas Day)
March 26, 2012