Event
Lima's mayor, Susana Villarán, obtained enough votes in the March 17th recall referendum to remain in office. However, the process became the vehicle for her rival, Lourdes Flores, to make a political comeback, as she was vocal in her opposition to the recall vote.
Analysis
Despite her victory, Ms Villarán is still facing an uphill struggle. According to a recent opinion poll published by El Comercio, a major newspaper, she still has a disapproval rating of 55%. Her position as the head of the capital's government is also weakened because she has lost a majority of her Fuerza Social (FS) party's city councillors. Preliminary results showed 19 out of FS's 21 councillors have seen their mandates revoked in the recall vote (making it probable that the party has lost its majority). Furthermore, new council elections are expected to take place in 2014, and it is likely that a majority in the body will be formed from opposition parties.
In contrast, preliminary results show that the Partido Popular Cristiano (PPC) lost only one of its 13 councillors. The vocal support of the PPC's Ms Flores, who lost to Ms Villarán in the 2010 municipal race, was a key factor behind the mayor's victory. As a result, Ms Flores emerged as the biggest winner following the process, which became a platform for her to raise her profile and confirm that she retains political clout despite her 2010 electoral defeat. The 2014 municipal election will indicate by how much the PPC has benefited from Ms Flores's performance.
The great losers of the process are Ms Villarán's predecessor, Luis Castañeda, and his Solidaridad Nacional (SN) party. Mr Castañeda was perceived as dishonest for refusing to admit his role in promoting the referendum-which only came to light when audio tapes were disclosed to local media shortly before the vote, confirming his backing of the process from the outset. Furthermore, by indirectly joining the campaign against Ms Villarán, former President Alan García made his Alianza Popular Revolucionaria Americana (APRA ) party a loser in the process, undermining its already weak position in the capital.
March 25, 2013
Ollanta Humala
Following an unsuccessful presidential run in 2006, when he narrowly lost to the former president, Alan García (2006-11),
Mr Humala moderated his radical nationalist discourse and distanced himself from his former ally, Hugo Chávez, the president of Venezuela. Coached by advisors from the Brazilian ruling party, the Partido dos Trabalhadores (PT), in the ten months of the electoral campaign, Mr Humala transformed his radical leftist position into a moderate, centre-left stance to emulate a popular former Brazilian president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. Although this was partly a campaign strategy,
Mr Humala's narrow win over a conservative populist, Keiko Fujimori, has led him to acknowledge that he does not have broad enough support to implement radical policy shifts. Since his inauguration in July 2011 he has enacted surprisingly pragmatic and centrist policies, while appointing a largely technocratic cabinet. But some uncertainty persists over his policy orientation. Mr Humala's military background and former position on issues such as freedom of the press and constitutional reforms could present a risk for democratic institutions. Similarly, his firm belief in an active role for the state in the economy will continue to weigh on the minds of the private sector.
Alejandro Toledo
After peaking in the polls in March, Mr Toledo came fourth in the first-round presidential election in April 2011. His sharp fall was partly the result of the public's recollection of his presidency (2001-06)-during which much of his popularity remained in the single digits-owing to his allegedly frivolous lifestyle and a string of minor scandals involving his family. Nonetheless, his track record of orthodox economic policies allowed him to obtain the third-largest group in Congress (the legislature). Mr Toledo gave his support to Mr Humala shortly before the presidential run-off. The two politicians agree on several fronts, most notably social inclusion, but their alliance will prove a difficult one, given Mr Toledo's more market-friendly economic policy position and Mr Humala's nationalistic position. Mr Toledo's own political ambitions-he is likely to run for president in 2016-could also undermine the cohesion of the Gana Perú-Perú Posible (PP) alliance.
Keiko Fujimori
A popular legislator in 2006-11, Ms Fujimori narrowly lost to Mr Humala in the June 2011 presidential election, owing to her inability to distance herself from the excesses of the regime of her father and a former president, Alberto Fujimori (1990-2000), who is currently serving a 25-year sentence for human rights violations and corruption. Nonetheless, she proved to be a stronger than expected contender, increasing support for Fujimorismo beyond its core base of loyalists, which constitute around one-fifth of the electorate. During the outlook period Ms Fujimori will seek to mend the fractures her defeat has provoked in her party, while boosting discipline within Fuerza 2011, the main opposition parliamentary group. Her leadership could be contested by old-guard Fujimorista legislators, who still defend the imprisoned Mr Fujimori, preventing the renewal of the party Ms Fujimori appears to be seeking. Ms Fujimori is likely to run in the 2016 general election.
Alan García
In his second term as president (2006-11), Mr García espoused pro-business policies and maintained orthodox macroeconomic policies in order to bury the record of his first term (1985-90), when his heterodox policies led the country to economic collapse. Although he benefited from low inflation and continued strong economic growth-with a brief slowdown in 2009-Mr García's popularity was undermined by repeated corruption scandals affecting his party and administration. Given his declared intention to run for a third presidential term in 2016, he will seek to position himself as one of Mr Humala's opponents. He will also look to rebuild his party-the Partido Aprista Peruano (APRA)-which lost considerable influence in the 2011 election, only keeping four of the 36 seats it had in the last Congress.
Walter Aduviri
An Aymara Indian leader with an anti-mining agenda, Mr Aduviri gained notoriety in mid-2011, during violent protests in Puno, a southern region that borders Bolivia, where Mr Humala obtained close to 80% of the vote. While Mr Aduviri is not the only indigenous leader with the ability to challenge the central government by organising violent protests-Alberto Pizango, an Amazonian leader, is another-he is a greater destabilising force, owing to his links to radical members of Mr Humala's entourage. These include the president's brother, Antauro Humala (who was jailed for an assault on a police station in 2005). Mr Aduviri has given the new government a three-month truce before resuming protests in Puno, calling for a permanent end to mining activities in the mineral rich region. Mr Aduviri has not been able to turn his local agenda into a nationwide one, but the risk of this is not to be discounted. Such a scenario would cause a sharp rise in political risk and threaten the important mining industry.
Nadine Heredia
Mr Humala's wife has emerged as an increasingly influential and popular figure on the political scene. Ms Heredia is thought to harbour political ambitions and holds significant power within the government. However, she is constitutionally barred from running in the next election (due in 2016). Unless a deal is negotiated to allow her to run-which cannot be discounted-Ms Heredia is likely to be limited to wielding considerable influence over the president in 2012-16.
September 20, 2012
Official name
Republic of Peru
Form of state
Presidential democracy
The executive
The president, who is directly elected for a five-year term, may not be re-elected to a second consecutive term; he appoints a Council of Ministers
Head of state
Elected president, currently Ollanta Humala, who was inaugurated in July 2011
National legislature
Congress consists of a 130-member single chamber, which can be dissolved once during a presidential term
Legal system
Courts of first instance in the provincial capitals; the Supreme Court sits in Lima
National elections
Presidential and congressional elections took place in April and June 2011. The next regional and local elections will be held in October 2014; the next presidential and legislative elections will take place in April 2016
National government
Ollanta Humala leads the government; his Gana Perú alliance has 43 of the 130 seats in Congress
Main political organisations
Government: Gana Perú
Opposition: Fuerza 2011; Perú Posible (PP); Somos Perú (SP); Acción Popular (AP); Alianza por el Gran Cambio (APGC); Partido Solidaridad Nacional (PSN); Partido Aprista Peruano (APRA)
President: Ollanta Humala Tasso
President of the Council of Ministers & prime minister: Juan Jiménez Mayor
Key ministers
Agriculture: Milton von Hesse
Culture: Luis Peirano
Defence: Pedro Cateriano
Development & social inclusion: Carolina Trivelli
Economy & finance: Luis Miguel Castilla
Education: Patricia Salas
Energy & mines: Jorge Merino
Environment: Manuel Pulgar Vidal
Foreign relations: Rafael Roncagliolo
Health: Midori de Habich
Housing, construction & sanitation: René Cornejo
Interior: Wilfredo Pedraza
International trade & tourism: José Luis Silva
Justice: Eda Riuas
Labour: Teresa Laos Cáceres
Production: José Urquizo
Transport & communications: Carlos Paredes
Women & social development: Ana Rosario Jara
Central Bank president
Julio Velarde
March 01, 2013
Outlook for 2013-17
Review
March 01, 2013
Fact sheet
| Annual data | 2011 | Historical averages (%) | 2007-11 | ||
| Population (m) | 30.4 | Population growth | 1.4 | ||
| GDP (US$ bn; market exchange rate) | 176.7 | Real GDP growth | 7.0 | ||
| GDP (US$ bn; purchasing power parity) | 302.0 | Real domestic demand growth | 8.1 | ||
| GDP per head (US$; market exchange rate) | 5,819 | Inflation | 3.1 | ||
| GDP per head (US$; purchasing power parity) | 9,946 | Current-account balance (% of GDP) | -1.5 | ||
| Exchange rate (av) Ns:US$ | 2.754 | FDI inflows (% of GDP) | 4.9 | ||
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Background: More than 12 years of military rule ended in 1980. Following a decade of economic and social instability, the government of Alberto Fujimori (1990-2000) ended hyperinflation and advanced reforms to liberalise the economy. However, it subverted Peru's democratic institutions and the government collapsed over a corruption scandal. The two subsequent governments, led by Alejandro Toledo (2001-06) and Alan García (2006-11), were successful in consolidating macroeconomic stability, but largely overlooked structural reforms required to raise productivity levels and ensure long-term growth. Ollanta Humala was elected president in June 2011 with a mandate to increase social spending and improve public services, in order to reduce still high levels of poverty and inequality.
Political structure: The 1993 constitution establishes a presidential regime with a powerful executive, elected for five years. Consecutive presidential re-election is not permitted. A 130-member unicameral legislature, elected at the same time as the president, also sits for five years. The government is decentralising revenue and responsibility to the 25 regions (including the constitutional province of Callao).
Policy issues: The Economist Intelligence Unit assumes that there will be significant continuity of orthodox economic policies and that the business environment will remain attractive. The Humala administration has shown a willingness to introduce more structural reforms than had been expected. The public education and healthcare systems will continue to underperform, despite increases in funding. The government will increase spending on social programmes to reduce poverty levels. Nonetheless, private investment in transport, energy and water infrastructure will remain strong. Bilateral free-trade agreements (FTAs) with Peru's main trading partners-including the US, China and the EU-will help to keep investment and trade flows firm in 2012-16.
Taxation: The corporate income tax rate is 30% for distributed earnings and 27% for reinvested earnings. Branch profit tax is levied at 30% and remittance tax at 10%. Royalties, currently taxed at 30%, will increase in the outlook period. Interest paid abroad stands at 5%. Value-added tax (VAT) was reduced from 19% to 18% in February 2011.
Foreign trade: Tariffs are levied on imports at either 9% or 17%; recent reductions have lowered the average effective tariff to 1.9%. Most non-tariff barriers have been eliminated. In 2011 merchandise exports totalled US$46.3bn and imports US$37bn.
| Major exports 2011 | % of total | Major imports 2011 | % of total |
| Copper | 23.2 | Intermediate goods | 49.4 |
| Gold | 21.8 | Capital goods | 31.6 |
| Fishmeal | 4.5 | Consumer goods | 18.1 |
| Leading markets 2011 | % of total | Leading suppliers 2011 | % of total |
| China | 15.5 | US | 24.8 |
| US | 12.8 | China | 13.9 |
| Canada | 9.6 | Brazil | 6.7 |
| Japan | 4.7 | Chile | 6.0 |
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March 01, 2013
Data and charts: Annual trends charts
March 01, 2013
Peru: Country outlook
FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT
POLITICAL STABILITY: During the remainder of his term (which ends in July 2016), the president, Ollanta Humala, a retired army commander, will maintain a pragmatic and broadly centrist policy stance, with initial fears that he would lurch radically to the left now allayed. The administration's moderate policies and its technocrats in key cabinet positions will sustain the support of the private sector and the urban upper and middle classes. However, disappointment on the part of the political left in the president's orthodox agenda will prove a difficulty and could lead his opinion poll rating to waver. This has improved in recent months, but remains below those for his first ten months in office, when his approval rating averaged 56%. Furthermore, recent gains in his popularity could easily be reversed in the event of a resumption of the high-profile social conflicts around large-scale mining projects, which caused the president's ratings to plunge in early 2012. More sustained gains will be achieved only by finding an enduring resolution with protesters, and delivering tangible evidence to low-income groups of a more inclusive social policy, while also improving security policy.
ELECTION WATCH: The next elections--regional and municipal--will take place in October 2014, and the next presidential and legislative elections are due in April 2016. The list of presidential hopefuls already includes a conservative populist, Keiko Fujimori, who lost to Mr Humala in the 2011 run-off, and two former presidents, Alejandro Toledo (2001-06) and Alan García (2006-11), whose parties have been severely weakened by their electoral defeat in 2011. Both Mr Humala and his popular wife, Nadine Heredia--who is thought to harbour political ambitions and holds significant influence within government--are legally barred from running in 2016, leaving the ruling party with the task of finding a successor. It remains possible that Gana Perú and the opposition Fuerza 2011--the collection of parties seeking a presidential pardon for a former president, Alberto Fujimori (1990-2000), who is serving a 25-year prison sentence for human rights violations and corruption--will negotiate a deal to allow Ms Heredia to run for president in exchange for the presidential pardon. Regional political forces will continue to undermine the influence of national traditional parties, especially in the run-up to the 2014 elections.
INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS: The Humala administration will favour regional integration efforts, such as the recently established Pacific Alliance--an integration pact to foster free movement of goods and people in Colombia, Chile, Mexico and Peru--or others implemented under the Unión de Naciones Suramericanas (Unasur, the Union of South American Nations) and the Comunidad Andina de Naciones (CAN, the Andean trading bloc). Relations with Brazil will remain strong, given growing trade and investment flows between the two countries and an energy integration pact. The pursuit of bilateral free-trade agreements (FTAs) will remain an important driver of foreign policy. A deal with the EU was ratified in December, while relations with the US and China--Peru's main trading partners--will remain anchored in bilateral FTAs in operation since 2009 and 2010, respectively. The risk of a conflict with Chile sparked by the forthcoming verdict of the International Court of Justice in The Hague on a long-standing maritime border dispute is small, given the two nations' strong commercial links.
POLICY TRENDS: The Economist Intelligence Unit expects broadly prudent policy from the Humala government in 2013-17, despite a relatively weak global outlook and the persistent risk of a major financial crisis originating in the Euro zone. Supported by robust public finances, the authorities are well placed to implement further fiscal stimulus measures should external conditions weigh on economic growth. However, administrative bottlenecks will limit the impact of such measures. While uncertainty over the global economy persists, monetary tightening is unlikely, especially given easing inflationary pressures. Robust and rising international reserves will allow the Banco Central de Reserva del Perú (BCRP, the Central Bank) to continue its policy of intervening aggressively in the currency markets to stem the nuevo sol's appreciation. Reserves will also support the currency and preserve the stability of Peru's highly dollarised financial system in the event of sudden shifts in risk aversion. The executive will make some changes to tax policy and collection--mainly to increase compliance and adapt customs legislation to comply with FTAs--but these will not significantly alter or simplify the complex tax regime. The main weaknesses in Peru's business environment--sub-par institutions, a rigid labour market and a low-skilled workforce--will persist in 2013-17, although firm GDP growth is likely to continue to reduce the poverty rate (which fell to 28% in 2011).
ECONOMIC GROWTH: Supported by robust private consumption growth and an anticipated upturn in exports, in line with gradually improving external conditions, we expect the economy to continue to expand rapidly. We expect real GDP growth of 6.2% in 2013, in line with our estimate for 2012 (which we have revised up to 6.2% from 6% on account of strong third-quarter results). This is likely to be one of the strongest rates in the region, but remains within Peru's estimated potential GDP growth range of 6-6.5%. Global uncertainties (a fragile US recovery, slower Chinese growth and volatility in the Euro zone) will persist, but the Peruvian economy has so far managed to weather the poor external environment. Assuming that global conditions improve as the forecast period progresses, GDP growth will remain firm by regional and global standards (although slower than in the past decade) at an annual average of 5.7% in 2014-17. This will be supported by strong anticipated investment in mining and other infrastructure projects. The main domestic risk to our forecast lies in conflicts over large mining projects, as demonstrated by the social unrest and protests that have caused delays to the Minas Conga project, a US$5bn investment in Cajamarca. Although this setback does not alter our 2013-17 forecast, outbreaks of social conflict could affect other areas, forcing other projects to be delayed or cancelled. This would jeopardise the US$53.4bn in expected investment in the mining sector during the coming decade. In such a scenario, business confidence would drop, dampening investment in other sectors and reducing our medium-term growth forecasts.
INFLATION: Having overshot since April 2011, annual inflation finally returned to within the Central Bank's 1-3% target range in November as supply-side pressures subsided. Notwithstanding our forecast for very firm domestic demand throughout 2013-17, we expect inflation to remain within this target range during the forecast period. Reflecting strong domestic demand, inflation is set to average 2.7% annually in 2013-17--above the annual average rate of 2.4% in the 2000s. Upside risks to these forecasts remain, stemming from potential supply shocks, including spikes in food and oil prices and the impact of adverse weather on crops and distribution networks. Nonetheless, under our baseline forecast, easing producer prices will help to contain inflationary pressures. Wage demands in the private sector will also remain relatively subdued in 2013-17, owing to continued high (albeit falling) underemployment and a large informal sector, encompassing around 60% of the workforce. The Instituto Nacional de Estadística e Informática (INEI, the national statistics institute) began to publish a nationwide consumer price index (CPI) in 2012. Its monthly movements have so far mirrored that of the Lima CPI, which we shall continue to use in our forecasts for as long as it remains the BCRP's main inflation-targeting measure.
EXCHANGE RATES: The Central Bank will continue to raise reserve requirements--in an attempt to curb credit growth and speculative capital inflows--to slow the nuevo sol's appreciation against the US dollar. Although appreciating steadily, the nuevo sol has remained relatively stable considering the sharp swings in risk aversion during 2012. This is owing to the BCRP's policy of intervening in currency markets--without targeting a specific exchange rate--to ensure the stability of Peru's financial sector. Barring a sharp rise in risk aversion stemming from an external shock, appreciation pressures--owing to improved fundamentals and US dollar inflows--will persist, leading the nuevo sol to strengthen slightly to Ns2.56:US$1 by end-2013. The exchange rate will be supported by a manageable current-account deficit, confidence in the monetary policy framework, a large reserves cushion and long-term capital inflows. Mild depreciation pressures are expected in the latter part of the forecast period, when we expect US interest rates to start to rise again and the current-account deficit to widen further in US dollar terms.
EXTERNAL SECTOR: We expect the current account to remain in deficit during the forecast period, widening in nominal terms, but remaining relatively stable as a percentage of GDP (between 2.5% and 3%). Firm growth in export earnings will help to offset strong growth in import spending (driven by imported inputs for the mining sector), keeping the trade surplus at an annual average of 3.9% of GDP in 2013-17. Driven by freight costs, the services deficit will average 0.9% of GDP in 2013-17. Increasing profit repatriations by foreign companies will widen the income deficit to 8.2% of GDP by 2017 (from 6.5% of GDP in 2012). The current transfers surplus will average 2% of GDP in 2013-17, similar to the average of the previous five years. The persistent current-account deficits will be comfortably financed by strong inward investment, which will also allow the authorities to continue to accumulate foreign reserves, which will reach US$73.9bn by 2017 (representing 15.5 months of import cover).
January 07, 2013
Country forecast overview: Highlights
March 01, 2013
Land area
1,285,216 sq km
Population
29.4m (2010, IMF estimate)
Main towns
Population in '000 (2005 census). Apart from Lima, the following refer to population of regional departments:
Lima (capital): 8,153
Cusco: 1,208
Piura: 1,679
Junín: 1,182
La Libertad: 1,596
Arequipa: 1,173
Cajamarca: 1,412
Lambayeque: 1,122
Puno: 1,290
Áncash: 1,089
Climate
Varies by region and altitude. In general, temperate on the coast, tropical in the jungles, cool in the highlands; the western highlands have a dry climate, but there is heavy rainfall in the eastern and northern highlands between October and April
Weather in Lima (altitude 120 metres)
Hottest month, February, 19-28°C (average daily minimum and maximum); coldest month, August, 13-19°C; driest months, February, March, 1 mm average monthly rainfall; wettest month, August, 8 mm average monthly rainfall
Languages
Spanish is the principal language and the lingua franca for the large numbers of Quechua and Aymara speakers; Quechua and Aymara also have official status
Measures
Metric system; also old Spanish measures, particularly in rural areas
Currency
Nuevo sol (Ns). There are 100 céntimos in one nuevo sol. Average exchange rates in 2011: Ns2.75:US$1; Ns3.83:EUR1
Time
5 hours behind GMT
Public holidays
January 1st; Easter (half-day Maundy Thursday and all day Good Friday); May 1st (Labour Day); June 29th (Saint Peter and Saint Paul); July 28th (Independence Day); August 30th (Santa Rosa de Lima); October 8th (Battle of Angamos); November 1st (All Saints' Day); December 8th (Immaculate Conception); December 25th (Christmas Day)
January 07, 2013