Oman

Politics:

• Analysis

  Oman politics: Quick View - Oman chosen as regional centre for cyber-securi

  Event

  Oman will host a cyber-security centre for the Arab region following the signing of a Memorandum of Understanding between the UN's International Telecommunication Union (ITU) and the sultanate's International Technology Authority (ITA).

  Analysis

  The memorandum was signed on behalf of the ITU by the International Multilateral Partnership Against Cyber Threats (IMPACT), an alliance of 144 states, companies and academia, which acts as the UN's cyber-security arm. IMPACT's chairman, Datuk Mohd Noor Amin, said he was impressed at the backing given by many of the 21 Arab-region countries to the choice of Oman as the partnership's first regional hub. It is also a vote of confidence in the ITA's Computer Emergency Readiness Team (CERT), launched in 2010, which is the official hosting body. Oman has increased investments in cyber-security in recent years and has taken a lead in terms of regional conferences on the issue.

  The government hopes that besides improving Oman's own cyber-security, the centre will raise the sultanate's profile in this field, so boosting foreign investment. Cyber security is rising up the agenda for governments and businesses in the Middle East, with the number and scale of attacks intensifying in recent years. There are also hopes that new jobs will be created for Omanis, a high priority for the government. However, if the centre is to provide meaningful jobs for locals, safeguards must be put in place to ensure that the expatriates that will undoubtedly be needed to fill positions initially have Omani counterparts whom they are required to train as part of their contracts.

  The government may be able to generate revenue by selling e-security services, including helping Arab countries, which have not yet established CERTs. The support of organisations with an interest in the field such as large cyber-security companies, universities, and international organisations could also be attracted.The UK's Government Communications Headquarters (GCHQ), which recently unveiled a scheme to help British organisations and companies deal with cyber-threats, has worked closely with the Omani government for many years.

  December 18, 2012

• Background

  Oman: Key figures

  Sultan Qaboos bin Said al-Said

  Since 1970, both in theory and in fact, decision-making has been heavily concentrated in the hands of Sultan Qaboos. As well as being head of state, he is prime minister, commander-in-chief of the armed forces, foreign minister, defence minister and finance minister.

  Ali bin Majid al-Maamari

  Palace Office affairs minister and head of the Defence Council, Mr Maamari is a powerful behind-the-scenes player in Oman, overseeing matters of internal security. His long tenure in office is a mark of the sultan's personal trust, which extends to giving him a decisive role in ensuring a smooth succession process.

  Youssef bin Alawi bin Abdullah

  Although the sultan formally holds the foreign affairs portfolio, Mr Abdullah is trusted with the day-to-day management of policy. He has held the position of minister responsible for foreign affairs for more than a decade.

  Haithem bin Tariq al-Said

  A first cousin of the sultan, Haithem al-Said is one of the three members of the royal family mooted as possible successors. He was promoted to the cabinet in 2002, as the national heritage and culture minister, but the position affords him little opportunity to build a power base from which to challenge the sultan.

  Shihab bin Tariq al-Said

  Shihab al-Said is Haithem al-Said's brother and another possible successor to the sultan. In 2004, following several years as commander of the Omani Royal Navy, he was promoted to become a personal representative of the sultan.

  Assad bin Tariq al-Said

  Special representative for the sultan and widely seen as his most likely successor, Assad al-Said is brother to Shihab and Haithem. His current position involves a range of ceremonial duties, as well as travel delivering messages on behalf of the sultan. Until early 2002 he headed the higher committee of conferences, before which he served as head of the armoured corps, attaining the rank of Brigadier-General.

  June 01, 2007

• Structure

  Oman: Political structure

  Official name

  Sultanate of Oman

  Form of state

  Monarchy

  Legislature

  There is no national legislature, but the Council of Oman debates policy and was given some legislative powers in October 2011. It comprises the 84-member Majlis al-Shura (Consultative Council) and the Majlis al-Dawla (State Council), whose members were appointed in November 2007

  Elections

  The Majlis al-Shura was elected by universal suffrage in October 2011. The next election is in October 2015

  Head of state

  Qaboos bin Said al-Said assumed power in July 1970

  Executive

  The sultan rules by decree, assisted by the Council of Ministers (cabinet). The most recent cabinet reshuffle was in March 2011

  Main political parties

  Political parties are not permitted

  Adviser of the sultan

  Shihab bin Tariq al-Said

  Personal representative of the sultan

  Assad bin Tariq al-Said

  The government

  Prime minister, minister of defence,finance & foreign affairs: Qaboos bin Said al-Said

  Deputy prime minister for cabinet affairs: Fahd bin Mahmoud al-Said

  Key ministers

  Agriculture & fisheries: Fuad bin Jaafar bin Mohammed al-Sajwani

  Awqaf & religious affairs: Abdullah bin Mohammed al-Salimi

  Commerce & industry: Ali bin Masoud al-Sunaidy

  Defence affairs: Badr bin Saud al-Busaidi

  Diwan of the Royal Court: Khalid bin Hilal al-Busaidi

  Education: Madiha bint Ahmed al-Shibaniyah

  Environment & climate affairs: Mohammed bin Salim bin Said al-Toobi

  Financial affairs: Darwish bin Ismail al-Balushi

  Foreign affairs: Youssef bin Alawi bin Abdullah

  Health: Ahmed bin Mohammed al-Saidi

  Heritage & culture: Haithem bin Tariq al-Said

  Higher education: Rawya bint Saud al-Busaidi

  Housing: Saif al-Shabibi

  Information: Abdulmunem bin Said al-Hasani

  Interior: Sayyid Hamoud bin Faisal al-Busaidi

  Justice: Abdulmalik bin Abdullah bin Ali al-Khalili

  Legal affairs: Abdullah bin Mohammed al-Saidi

  Manpower: Abdullah bin Nasir al-Bakri

  Oil & gas: Mohammed bin Hamad al-Rumhi

  Municipalities & water resources: Ahmed bin Mohammed al-Shuhi

  Social development: Mohammed bin Said bin Saif al-Kalbani

  Sports affairs: Saad bin Mohammed bin Said al Saadi

  Tourism: Ahmed bin Nasser bin Hamad al-Mehrzi

  Transport & communications: Ahmed bin Salim al-Futaisi

  Central Bank executive president

  Hamood Sangour al-Zadjali

  December 13, 2012

• Outlook

  Oman: Key developments

  Outlook for 2013-17

  • The monarchy will remain in power over the forecast period. To prevent a repeat of the protests of 2011, it will enact political and economic reforms, as well as increase wages further and create public-sector jobs for Omanis.
  • Oman will maintain its military ties with the West while nurturing cordial relations with Iran. However, if there is a military confrontation between the West and Iran, Oman, under the GCC umbrella, may be forced to take sides.
  • Fiscal policy will remain expansionary to support economic development and limit protests. As a result, we forecast that the budget surplus will narrow sharply in 2013-17, to an average of 1.8% of GDP.
  • Oil and gas development remains a priority, but the government will also push ahead with its economic diversification programme. This will focus on infrastructure and port development, downstream oil activities and tourism.
  • Strong domestic demand, an expansionary fiscal policy and gains in the non-oil economy will ensure that economic growth is robust, averaging 5.1% in 2013-17. However, growth remains vulnerable to a downturn in oil prices.
  • Inflation is forecast to average 3.7% a year in 2013-17. This is much lower than in 2007-08 but still high by historical standards as expanding government spending and strong domestic demand will push up prices.
  • The current account will maintain a healthy surplus, at an average of about 5.5% of GDP in 2013-17, as it will closely follow oil price movements.

  Review

  • Oman's ruler, Sultan Qaboos bin Said al-Said, used his annual speech to the nation to take both the private sector and Omani youth to task. The sultan made clear his priority for boosting Omani employment in the private sector.
  • The number of expatriates officially employed by the private sector at the end of September 2012 was 1.3m, 14% higher year on year, but the number of Omani employees in the sector fell slightly over the same period.
  • The financial affairs minister, Darwish bin Ismail al-Balushi, announced details of the 2013 state budget, including further large increases in public expenditure to OR13bn (US$33.8bn)-up by 30% on the initial 2012 budget.
  • The government's late payment of OR0.5m (US$1.3m) to a local construction firm reinforces the government's poor reputation for prompt payment of contractors.
  • Bondholders of Oman's ill-fated Blue City real estate and tourism project have been made an offer by the Oman Investment Fund, the country's sovereign wealth fund.

  December 13, 2012

Economy:

• Background

  Oman: Population

  Population by origin, 2005
  (m)
  	Omani	Non-Omani	Total
  Population	1.843	0.666	2.509
  Source: Ministry of National Economy.

  Download text file (csv format)

  Unemployment is a growing concern as Oman has a young population, with almost 55% of citizens under the age of 20 and 83% under the age of 35. Economic development and perceived better job prospects in cities have gradually attracted young Omanis to urban areas. The 2003 census recorded just over 70% of the population as "urban", and showed that more than half now live in the area around the capital, Muscat. Other major population centres include the Dhofari port of Salalah and the northern towns of Sohar, Nizwa and Sur.

  The bulk of the Omani population is Muslim. The ruling family and a substantial proportion of ordinary citizens adhere to Ibadhism, a breakaway sect of Shia Islam. Most of the rest of the population is Sunni, although there are some Shia, mainly in the capital area. The "Basic Law" specifies that the sultan must be a Muslim, but ordinary Omani nationals are subject to no such requirement; indeed, one prominent trading family is of Indian Hindu descent. As a result of Oman's trading history, the country is a mixture of races. Slavery existed in living memory, and some former slaves still live as retainers to the families they previously served.

  June 01, 2007

• Structure

  Oman: Economic structure

  Data and charts: Annual trends charts

  
  

  

  December 13, 2012

• Outlook

  Oman: Country outlook

  Oman: Country outlook

  FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT

  POLITICAL STABILITY: The long-established structures of political power in Oman are expected to remain in place over the forecast period. Oman's ruler, Sultan Qaboos bin Said al-Said, still commands wide popular support, shored up by the loyalty of the security services and the strength of the country's traditional social structures. Moreover, Sultan Qaboos has initiated political and economic reforms in response to protests in the first five months of 2011. The most important political measure involved the granting of legislative powers in October 2011 to the Majlis al-Shura (Consultative Council) by amending the Basic Law of State. However, criticism of the authorities and the sultan himself has increased since June 2012, and arrests and convictions in June-November of bloggers and activists who have been demanding greater political reform are an indication that the government is attempting to clamp down on freedom of expression. If heavy-handed, this could prove counterproductive. Although protests of the magnitude seen in Sohar in 2011 have come to a halt, further demonstrations are likely, pressing for greater job creation or faster political reform, including in the sphere of freedom of expression. The political reforms that have been implemented so far suggest a desire to shift gradually away from a system of absolute monarchy and towards a constitutional monarchy (although the present system is still a long way short of the latter arrangement).

  ELECTION WATCH: The Council of Oman (parliament) comprises the Majlis al-Dawla (State Council) and the Majlis al-Shura. Members of the Majlis al-Dawla are appointed by the sultan for a four-year term. Members of the 84-seat Majlis al-Shura are elected for a four-year term by universal suffrage. The Majlis al-Shura election was held on October 15th 2011. Two days after the election was held, the sultan amended the Basic Law of State, granting some legislative powers to the Majlis al-Shura, which, together with the Majlis al-Dawla, is now able to propose draft laws and refer them to the government for assessment. Municipal elections scheduled for October 2012 have been delayed and are expected to be held in the coming months; new members of the Council of Oman will not be able to stand as candidates. The next Majlis al-Shura election is due to be held in October 2015.

  INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS: Oman's ties with its most important international allies--the US and the UK--will remain strong in 2013-17. Relationships with Asian countries, especially India, will become increasingly important owing to trade and investment. Oman will closely monitor relations between the West and Iran over the latter's nuclear programme. The sultanate has a long-standing diplomatic approach and continues, so far, to strengthen its relations with the West while maintaining cordial relations with Iran. Oman has also played an active role in facilitating the release of US and European citizens who have been detained by Iran. However, if tensions between the West and Iran escalate, Oman will find it hard to sustain a neutral stance, particularly given the fact that the US and the UK have military facilities on Omani territory.

  POLICY TRENDS: The government will continue to pursue reforms aimed at diversifying the economy away from oil and gas and promoting non-oil exports. To facilitate non-oil exports, it will increase spending on expanding the downstream sector and on infrastructure projects, including the development of tourism, ports and railways. Piracy in Omani waters has increased in recent years, and if attacks on oil tankers occur frequently there is a risk that this might hinder port development. The latest five-year development plan (2011-15) allocates more than OR8bn (US$20.8bn) to infrastructure development. Investment in expanding crude oil production will continue through the use of enhanced oil recovery (EOR) techniques, but the Economist Intelligence Unit forecasts that the growth rate of crude production in 2013-17 will be around 1% annually. Increased investment in energy-intensive industry and new power generation capacity has put more pressure on gas supplies, but the government realises this and is committed to increasing gas output by developing new gas-processing plants. The government will also be more stringent in prioritising the allocation of gas supplies to large projects. There is a move to consolidate the two state-owned liquefied natural gas producers to reduce costs and make the companies more competitive on an international scale. This policy of consolidation may be applied to other state-owned energy players if the merger proves successful. The development of alternative sources of energy is expected to pick up from a low base, but the government is prioritising further gas exploration, which is expected to yield large gains in gas output after 2017.

  ECONOMIC GROWTH: We estimate that real GDP growth will have remained robust in 2012, at 5%, driven primarily by expanding government spending and domestic demand, both boosted by high oil prices. In 2013-17 oil activity will continue to dominate the economy, but average daily oil production will expand only moderately, by around 1% annually--compared with an annual average of 5.7% in 2008-11 and an estimated 2.8% in 2012. Oil export growth will be modest over the forecast period as domestic consumption rises. Omani oil exports would not be directly affected if Iran were to follow through with its intermittent threat to close the Strait of Hormuz, as Oman's oil export terminals are located on the Arabian Sea. Strong growth in non-oil production will compensate for some of the weakness in oil production. High domestic demand, an expansionary fiscal policy and gains in the non-oil economy will ensure that economic growth is robust, averaging 5.1% in 2013-17.

  INFLATION: Inflation is constrained by the government's extensive subsidy system, which holds in check the prices of a range of core goods and services. The implementation of a more cost-reflective power tariff for industrial and commercial users is still to be approved by the Council of Ministers and its impact on inflation will depend on how successful the authorities are in making customers pay the true cost for their power usage. We estimate that inflation will have averaged 3.1% in 2012, kept in check by virtually flat prices for electricity, water and fuel. We forecast average inflation of 3.7% a year in 2013-17 (fairly high by Omani standards) given strong growth in domestic demand, upward pressure on wages and gradual increases in electricity and gas prices for businesses.

  EXCHANGE RATES: The fixed exchange rate of OR0.385:US$1 is not expected to come under pressure in 2013-17. The Central Bank of Oman is committed to the peg, which it has maintained since 1986. According to our calculations, in real effective terms the exchange rate is set for modest appreciation over the forecast period, after depreciating mildly in 2010-11. In March 2012 the IMF in its concluding statement under its regular Article IV consultations considered Oman's exchange-rate regime appropriate and in line with fundamentals. The outlook for Oman's external accounts and foreign asset levels is sufficiently robust to enable the Central Bank to defend the peg. Oman's decision not to join the mooted Gulf Co-operation Council currency union also means that the peg is less likely to be adjusted in response to any revaluations of the currencies of the other Gulf countries.

  EXTERNAL SECTOR: We estimate that the trade surplus will have remained large at US$25bn in 2012 and project a slight fall in 2013, with dated Brent crude forecast to decline to US$103.8/barrel from US$111.9/b in 2012. The trade surplus will remain substantial throughout the forecast period, although the impact of high oil prices will be moderated by the slower pace in the growth of crude production. Overall, export revenue is forecast to increase by an annual average of around 8% in 2013-17, supported by the continued development of Oman's sea ports, which will increase re-export trade.

  December 09, 2012

• Forecast

  Oman: 5-year forecast summary

  Outlook for 2013-17: Forecast summary

  Forecast summary
  (% unless otherwise indicated)
  	2012a	2013b	2014b	2015b	2016b	2017b
  Real GDP growth	5.0	5.1	4.8	5.3	5.2	5.0
  Oil production ('000 b/d)	910	923	933	942	950	956
  Crude oil exports (US$ m)	29,950	28,031	28,639	29,560	30,410	31,897
  Consumer price inflation (av)	3.1	3.4	3.5	3.6	4.0	3.8
  Lending rate	5.9	5.9	6.2	6.3	6.5	6.5
  Official net budget balance (% of GDP)c	9.4	2.5	2.2	1.7	1.3	1.4
  Unofficial gross budget balance (% of GDP)d	9.4	2.6	2.3	1.8	1.2	1.4
  Exports of goods fob (US$ bn)	49.1	48.9	52.7	58.4	64.1	71.2
  Imports of goods fob (US$ bn)	23.9	26.5	30.3	34.8	39.3	45.0
  Current-account balance (US$ bn)	8.6	4.9	3.8	4.7	5.6	6.4
  Current-account balance (% of GDP)	11.6	6.3	4.6	5.1	5.5	5.6
  External debt (year-end; US$ bn)	9.4	9.7	9.9	10.3	10.5	10.9
  Exchange rate OR:US$ (av)	0.385	0.385	0.385	0.385	0.385	0.385
  Exchange rate OR:€ (av)	0.535	0.491	0.485	0.482	0.305	0.305
  Exchange rate OR:¥100 (av)	0.482	0.484	0.466	0.443	0.417	0.421
  Exchange rate OR:SDR (av)	0.612	0.592	0.586	0.580	0.577	0.577
  a Economist Intelligence Unit estimates. b Economist Intelligence Unit forecasts. c Excludes State General Reserve Fund operations. d Includes State General Reserve Fund operations.

  Download the numbers in Excel

  Download text file (csv format)

  December 13, 2012

View detailed map

Country Briefing

Land area

309,500 sq km

Population

3.17m (2009 Ministry of National Economy mid-year estimate), including 1.15m expatriates

Main regions

Population (2009)

Muscat (capital): 949,694

Dhofar: 307,834

Al Batinah: 818,650

Al Dhahirah: 169,350

Al Sharqiyah: 402,425

Musandam: 40,460

Al Dakhiliyah: 332,722

Al Wusta: 37,757

Climate

Coastal areas, especially Batinah and Muscat: very hot and humid in summer; winters mild. Interior desert: summers hot and dry; winters cool. Dhofar receives monsoon rains in June-September

Weather in Muscat (altitude 5 metres)

Hottest month: June, 31-38°C (average daily minimum and maximum). Coldest month: January, 20-25°C. Driest months: July and August, 1 mm average rainfall. Wettest month: January, average rainfall 28 mm, but considerably higher on Hajar Mountains in the interior

Languages

Arabic; English, Urdu, Baluchi and Swahili are also widely used

Measures

Metric system

Currency

Omani riyal (OR) = 1,000 baisa. The currency is pegged to the US dollar at OR0.3845:US$1

Time

4 hours ahead of GMT

Public holidays

The Islamic holidays—Mawlid al-Nabi (the birthday of the Prophet, February 4th 2012), Eid al-Fitr (end of Ramadan, August 19th 2012), Eid al-Adha (Feast of the Sacrifice, November 6th 2012), Islamic New Year (November 15th 2012) and—are public holidays, the dates of which vary according to the lunar calendar and are therefore approximates. New Year's Day (January 1st), National Day and birthday of Sultan Qaboos (November 18th), and New Year's Eve (December 31st) are also public holidays

March 20, 2012