Niger

Politics:

• Analysis

  Niger politics: Quick View - Government makes strides in fight against corr

  Event

  Niger has made significant progress in the annual Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI) compiled by the German-based non-governmental organisation, Transparency International, jumping from 134th (out of 183 countries) in 2011 to 113rd (out of 176 countries) in 2012.

  Analysis

  Niger was ranked ahead of large economies such as Kenya, Uganda and Cote d'Ivoire, although it is still far behind the best ranked African nation, Botswana, another resource-rich country, which was ranked 30th.

  Fighting corruption has been a priority for the president, Mahamadou Issoufou, since he came to power in April 2011. He set up two anti-corruption institutions: Bureau d'Information, de Reclamation, de Lutte contre la Corruption et le Trafic d'Influence (Bureau of Information and Claims Against Corruption and Bribery) at the Ministry of Justice, to tackle corruption within the judiciary; and the multi-sector Haute Autorite de Lutte contre la Corruption et les Infractions Assimilees (HALCIA, High Authority Against Corruption and Related Infractions). Both have been in place since October 2011. The bureau at the Ministry of Justice reported that it received more than 300 complaints through its free hotline between October 2011 and June 2012, while HALCIA is currently working on around 120 cases.

  Despite this, many in Niger are disappointed with the slow progress of the anti-corruption institutions. A number of high-profile cases remain unsolved, including one case involving eight members of parliament accused of corruption and embezzlement. New cases also continue to emerge regularly, denting the image of the regime and its anti-corruption drive.

  In recent interviews the head of HALCIA, Issoufou Boureima, has bemoaned the lack of resources at the agency. The organisation has also struggled to establish its legitimacy among Niger's political elite, and civil society activists say that it lacks teeth.

  Moreover, the country's judiciary is inefficient and subject to political interference, and while Niger's improvement in the CPI ranking underlines the current regime's determination to improve its image and reduce the endemic corruption affecting the country's politics and economy, progress will be slow.

  December 11, 2012

• Background

  Niger: Key figures

  Mamadou Tandja

  A former army colonel, Mr Tandja is from Diffa, in south-eastern Niger, and belongs to a minor tribe, the Kanouri, which has close links with the dominant Hausa tribe. He was minister of foreign affairs from 1974 to 1989 and minister of the interior until 1993. He was held responsible by some Nigeriens for the Tchin-Tabaraden massacre of May 1990 when troops shot dead 63 Tuareg protesters. Mr Tandja unsuccessfully contested the 1993 and 1996 presidential elections as the leader of Mouvement national pour la societe de developpement (MNSD), before winning in 1999 and being re-elected in 2004, a first for a Nigerien president.

  Seyni Oumarou

  Mr Oumarou was nominated by the ruling MNSD and appointed prime minister by Mr Tandja on June 3rd 2007 following the fall of Hama Amadou. He is a long-term associate of Mr Amadou, having been his special adviser before becoming a government minister and a senior MNSD member in his own right. Like Mr Amadou, he is from the Djerma tribe—Niger's second largest after the Hausa.

  Hama Amadou

  Prime minister in 1995-96 under Mahamane Ousmane, Mr Amadou was appointed prime minister by Mr Tandja on December 31st 1999 and replaced Mr Tandja as chairman of the MNSD in December 2001. He was reappointed prime minister following the presidential election of 2004 but was voted out of office by the National Assembly in 2007. He is from the Djerma tribe.

  Mahamadou Issoufou

  An ethnic Hausa from Tahoua, Mr Issoufou is the leader of the main opposition party, Parti nigerien pour la democratie et le socialisme (PNDS). He briefly served as prime minister under Mr Ousmane, before resigning in 1994 to join the opposition. He came second in both the 1999 and the 2004 presidential elections. He is the popular leader of a relatively united party, whose main support comes from white-collar workers.

  Mahamane Ousmane

  Elected president in 1993, Mr Ousmane was overthrown by Colonel Mainassara in January 1996. The leader of Convention democratique et sociale (CDS), he came third in the first round of the 1999 and 2004 presidential elections. On both occasions he threw his support behind Mr Tandja in the second round and was subsequently elected president of the National Assembly.

  Ali Lamine Zeine

  Minister of the economy and finance, Mr Zeine was appointed in October 2003 to succeed Ali Badjo Gamatie, who was a close ally of Mr Amadou. Mr Zeine was Mr Tandja's former chief of staff and is seen as a potential rival to Mr Amadou.

  February 20, 2008

• Structure

  Niger: Political structure

  Official name

  République du Niger

  Form of state

  Unitary republic

  Legal system

  The constitution of Niger's Seventh Republic was approved by referendum in October 2010

  National legislature

  National Assembly of 113 members

  National elections

  January 31st 2011 (presidential & legislative); second round of presidential election March 12th 2011; next elections due in 2016

  Head of state

  Mahamadou Issoufou was inaugurated as president on April 7th 2011, marking a return to democracy and civilian government after a military coup in February 2010

  National government

  The government, appointed on April 21st 2011, is headed by the prime minister, Brigi Rafini

  Main political parties

  Parti nigérien pour la démocratie et le socialisme (PNDS) won the largest number of seats at the 2011 legislative election; its allies in the Mouvance pour la Renaissance du Niger (MRN) are Mouvement démocratique nigérien (Moden), Alliance nigérienne pour la démocratie et le progrès (ANDP), Rassemblement pour la démocratie et le progrès (RDP) and Union pour la démocratie et la République (UDR); the opposition Alliance pour la Réconciliation nationale (ARN) consist of the former ruling party, Mouvement national pour la société de développement (MNSD), Convention démocratique et sociale (CDS) and Union des nigériens indépendants (UNI)

  Prime minister: Brigi Rafini

  Ministers of state

  Foreign affairs: Bazoum Mohamed

  Interior, security, decentralisation & religious affairs: Abdou Labo

  Mines & industrial development: Omar Hamidou Tchiana

  Planning & community development: Amadou Boubacar Cissé

  Key ministers

  Agriculture: Oua Saidou

  Civil service & labour: Sabo Fatouma Zara Boubacar

  Commerce & private sector: Saley Saidou

  Defence: Karidjo Mahamadou

  Education & literacy: Ali Mariama Elhadj Ibrahim

  Energy & petroleum: Foumakoye Gado

  Finance: Gilles Baillet

  Health: Soumana Sanda

  Higher education & scientific research: Mamadou Youba Diallo

  Information & information technology: Salifou Labo Bouché

  Justice & government spokesman: Marou Amadou

  Livestock: Mahamane Elhadj Ousmane

  Population, women & children: Maikibi Kadidiatou Dandobi

  Public works: Saddi Soumaïla

  Relations with institutions: El Hadj Laouali Chaibou

  Transport: Ibrahim Yacouba

  Urban development, housing & sanitation: Moussa Bako Abdoul Karim

  Water & environment: Issoufou Issaka

  Youth, sport & culture: Hassane Kounou

  Governor of the central bank (BCEAO)

  Koné Tiémoko Meyliet

  November 01, 2012

Economy:

• Background

  Niger: Population

  Booming population threatens long-term development

  According to the UN, there were an estimated 14m Nigeriens in 2006, compared with 5.3m in 1975. Niger's demographic profile is that of an extremely young population: 49% of the population is under 15 years old and only 2% is over 65. The fertility rate is one of the highest in Sub-Saharan Africa, with an average of almost eight births for every woman, generating an annual population growth rate of 3.3%, which is expected to rise to 3.5% between 2005 and 2015, bringing the total population to 18.8m. Combined with the loss of arable land through desertification, population growth poses a major threat to Niger's agriculture-driven economic growth. The urban population has risen from 10.6% of the population in 1975 to 16.7% in 2004 and is forecast to reach 19.3% in 2015. In 2007 the government announced a new national population policy aimed at reducing the annual population growth rate to 2.5%, but this will be difficult to achieve without the support of conservative religious leaders who in the past have resisted attempts to eliminate child marriage and introduce contraception.

  An ethnically diverse country

  Niger has ten main ethnic groups. Hausa account for 56% of the population, followed by Djerma-Songhai (22%), Fula (8.5%), Tuareg (8%) and Kanouri (4%); Toubou, Arabs and Gourmantche account for about 1% of the population. Although more than 80% of the population is Muslim, the state is secular. However, personal disputes, marriages and inheritance issues are often dealt with under Islamic law.

  Near the bottom of the UNDP's development index

  The 2007/08 Human Development Report, published by the UN Development Programme (UNDP), ranks Niger 174th in a list of 177 countries in terms of human development achievements. Such a low level of development is the result of decades of political instability, recurrent droughts and lack of investment in the social sectors. The report estimates that 60.6% of the population lived on less than US$1 a day during the period 1990-2005. There are also considerable gender disparities: just 15.1% of adult women are literate, compared with 42.9% of men; and the earned income of females in purchasing power parity terms is estimated at US$561 in 2005, just over half that of males (US$991). Women's low level of education is one factor contributing to the country's high birth rate. Geographically, disparities are also increasing between the desert north and the more fertile southern fringe of the country. The movement southwards of nomadic pastoralists searching for grazing for their cattle is the cause of frequent clashes with farmers. The vast majority of economically active Nigeriens are subsistence farmers. The public and mining sectors are the only significant sources of formal employment. Children are also a major part of the labour force.

  February 20, 2008

• Structure

  Niger: Economic structure

  Economic structure: Annual indicators

  	2008a	2009a	2010a	2011a	2012b
  GDP at market prices (CFAfr bn)	2,420	2,512	2,764	2,869	2,947
  GDP (US$ bn)	5.4	5.3	5.6	6.1	5.7
  Real GDP growth (%)	8.8	-0.9	8.0	2.3	9.9
  Consumer price inflation (av; %)	11.3	4.3	0.8	2.9	0.9
  Population (m)	14.5	15.0	15.5b	16.1b	16.6
  Exports of goods fob (US$ m)	912	997	1,147	1,228b	1,496
  Imports of goods fob (US$ m)	-1,350	-1,794	-1,964	-2,223b	-2,406
  Current-account balance (US$ m)	-652	-1320	-1141	-1,493b	-1,505
  Foreign-exchange reserves excl gold (US$ m)	705	656	760	673	893
  Exchange rate (av) CFAfr:US$	447.8	472.2	495.3	471.9	514.1
  a Actual. b Economist Intelligence Unit estimates.

  Download the numbers in Excel

  Origins of gross domestic product 2011	% of total	Components of gross domestic product 2011	% of total
  Primary sector	39.5	Private consumption	69.1
  Secondary sector	14.9	Government consumption	18.4
  Tertiary sector	45.6	Gross domestic investment	51.0
  		Exports of goods & services	24.6
  		Imports of goods & services	-63.9
  Exports 2011	% of total	Imports 2011	% of total
  Uranium	74.8	Capital goods	45.2
  Gold	10.1	Petroleum products	16.6
  Livestock	4.7	Food	12.9
  Destination of exports 2011a	% of total	Origin of imports 2011a	% of total
  Russia	49.2	China	15.6
  Nigeria	29.4	France	9.7
  Ghana	4.1	Nigeria	8.9
  South Korea	2.4	French Polynesia	8.5
  a Derived from partners' trade returns; subject to a wide margin of error.

  Download the numbers in Excel

  Download text file (csv format)

  November 01, 2012

• Outlook

  Niger: Country outlook

  Niger: Country outlook

  FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT

  OVERVIEW: The Nigerien president, Mahamadou Issoufou, and his Parti nigérien pour la démocratie et le socialisme (PNDS), supported by four other political parties in the National Assembly, are expected to remain in power. The main threat to political stability is the risk of the unrest in Mali spilling over the porous border into Niger, triggering a renewed Tuareg rebellion and facilitating the spread of Islamist terrorist groups and trafficking networks. Despite delays in pubic investment, real GDP growth will remain elevated at an average of 6.1% in the 2013-14 forecast period following rising output and continued strong investment inflows in the oil and mining sectors. The fiscal deficit will narrow to 2.4% of GDP in 2013 as revenue from the agricultural and mining sectors picks up, before widening to 2.9% of GDP in 2014 as revenue growth slows and capital expenditure rises. Improved domestic food production and falling domestic fuel prices will cause average inflation to fall to 0.7% in 2013, rising to 1% in 2014. Export revenue will grow by an average of 13% in 2013-14 on the back of rising oil and mining output, causing the current-account deficit to narrow from an estimated 26.3% of GDP in 2012 to 21% of GDP in 2014.

  DOMESTIC POLITICS: Since his inauguration as president in 2011, Mr Issoufou has consolidated democracy and set out to reform the country's fragile economy. In doing so he has won the trust of large sections of the Nigerien population and helped to restore the country's relations with its donors and international partners, which his predecessor, Mamadou Tandja, had brought to a state of breakdown. Despite some simmering tensions, Mr Issoufou has the backing of five of the eight political parties represented in the Assembly, which together form a pro-president coalition, Mouvance pour la renaissance du Niger (MRN). The opposition, tainted by Mr Tandja's corruption and attempts to undermine democracy, has so far been unable to present a credible and coherent alternative to the current administration. Consequently, a level of political stability not seen in recent years has been established, and the Economist Intelligence Unit expects Mr Issoufou to remain in power for the duration of his term. However, the dominance of the PNDS within the government has led to complaints from the other parties in the MRN, especially the Mouvement démocratique nigérien (Moden), established by Mr Tandja's former prime minister, Hama Amadou, who was also a rival candidate in the 2011 presidential poll. Should Moden decide to leave the coalition, the MRN's majority in the legislature would be significantly weakened and the PNDS would be dependent on the three smaller political parties in the alliance. Nevertheless, we expect Mr Issoufou to continue to take all necessary steps to avoid pushing Moden back into the camp of its leader's former party, Mouvement national pour la société de développement, the main opposition party in the Assembly. The priorities that Mr Issoufou has set himself are to improve food security, reduce poverty, tackle corruption and establish an efficient framework to manage the important uranium and oil sectors. The regime's tough stance on corruption has raised people's expectations that corrupt officials will be held accountable, but it could prompt a backlash should it fail to live up to its promises. The president will work closely with the army to counter the terrorist threat posed by Islamist terrorist groups such as al-Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) and Nigeria-based Boko Haram, and has boosted funding for the army and called for increased international co-operation and support in fighting AQIM.

  INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS: Relations with Niger's neighbours and international partners have greatly improved since the ousting of Mr Tandja. Donors-including the EU, the country's main source of development aid-have scaled up their aid to the country. Relations with the US will focus on security co-operation and evolve around the Trans-Sahara Counterterrorism Partnership, the US State Department's strategy to prevent the Sahel from becoming a safe haven for Islamist terrorists. Niger's military collaboration with Algeria, Mali and Mauritania, in the wake of a number of attacks by AQIM, is part of this strategy. The EU has also dispatched a group of experts to train the Nigerien security forces, and boost regional and national counter-terrorism capabilities. Mr Issoufou has advocated an international intervention in Mali and will continue to play a central role in efforts to restore peace in the country. France, Niger's main bilateral donor and a major trading partner, will be keen on good relations because of its dependence on the country for one-third of the fuel that it uses for its nuclear power stations. China has become a significant trading partner and a major investor in oil, uranium and infrastructure in the country in recent years; it will continue to be valued as a counter-weight to French economic influence.

  POLICY TRENDS: Niger's three-year US$121m IMF Extended Credit Facility arrangement, approved in March 2012, will, together with the government's new poverty-reduction strategy (expected to be finalised by end-2012), guide the country's economic policy over 2013-14. They will aim at maintaining macroeconomic stability while increasing the country's resilience to external shocks, boosting investment spending on infrastructure, agriculture, health and education, improving public finance management and supporting private- and financial-sector development. The new programme with the Fund will also focus on strengthening the management of the oil and uranium sectors, which are both expected to grow steadily in the coming years, in order to ensure their effective contribution to sustainable growth and poverty reduction. In an effort to boost investment inflows, the government has vowed to review the country's investment code, in collaboration with the World Bank; this will serve to diversify the economy and expand the fiscal revenue base. The fiscal challenge facing the government is daunting, given the narrow tax base and public resistance to price rises. The further lowering of domestic fuel prices, which will come into effect in January 2013, will cost the government about CFAfr14.5bn (US$28.6m; nearly 0.5% of GDP) in lost revenue and this, together with bureaucratic inefficiencies and the ineffective regulation of the oil sector, means that actual revenue growth will fall short of potential. Nevertheless, domestic tax receipts will continue to increase in 2013, albeit more moderately than in 2012, on the back of continued strengthening of tax and customs administrations, rising output at the Teguidda-Azelik uranium mine and the Agadem oil block, as well as improved production capacity at the oil refinery in Zinder. Increased security spending to prevent the unrest in Mali from spilling over into Niger will boost current expenditure. The government has launched several ambitious public investment programmes, and capital expenditure will increase as result of the revenue growth and increased aid inflows. However, spending execution will be hindered by the government's limited administrative capacity and inefficient spending procedures. Overall, we expect the fiscal deficit to narrow from an estimated 2.6% of GDP in 2012 to 2.4% of GDP in 2013, before widening to 2.9% of GDP in 2014, as revenue growth moderates and spending pressures remain high.

  ECONOMIC GROWTH: Agriculture accounts for around 40% of GDP in Niger and provides the livelihoods of more than 80% of the population. Assuming reasonable harvests in 2013-14, we forecast that real GDP growth will remain above 5%. Growth will be supported by investment in the country's oil and mining sector, including in the Chinese-owned Agadem oilfield in eastern Niger. Chinese investors will also remain active in developing a smaller uranium mine near Azelik, driving further growth in the mining sector. However, the expected completion of a giant new uranium mine currently under construction at Imouraren by a French nuclear energy company, Areva, has been delayed to 2014 and could face further delays following doubts over financing and concerns over security and labour strikes on the construction site. The expansion of the government's public investment programme, including irrigation and roadbuilding schemes, in 2013-14 will support growth, although the Kandadji dam, Niger's first hydroelectric scheme, has been delayed. It would have mitigated the effects of the structural power deficit, but its completion has now been delayed until 2016 and power shortages will continue to hinder growth. Following a rise in real GDP growth to an estimated 9.9% in 2012 following the onset of oil production in late 2011, growth is expected to slow to 5.9% in 2013 before picking up to 6.2% in 2014 as investment inflows increase in line with an improvement in global economic activity.

  EXTERNAL ACCOUNT: Uranium exports, which account for over 70% of exports by value, will continue to rise over 2013-14 as production at the Chinese-operated Teguidda mine, near Azelik, increases gradually during the next two years. Exports of livestock and other agricultural products are expected to rise again following a better harvest in late 2012, while rising output at Samira Hill, the country's only gold mine, and higher oil output at the Agadem oilfield are forecast to increase export revenue by nearly 14% in 2013. However, oil export growth will continue to be curbed by an inability to compete with regional price levels, logistical difficulties and an inadequate regulatory framework. With the expected improvements in domestic agricultural output, growth in food imports is expected to decelerate. Nevertheless, a rise in capital imports for the Kandadji hydroelectric dam and other infrastructure projects will drive import growth; imports are forecast to rise from an estimated US$2.4bn in 2012 to US$2.7bn in 2014. The services deficit will remain high in 2013-14 owing to the freight costs of imports and the high cost of imported services for investment projects. The deficit on the income account will widen as mining firms repatriate their rising profits. The surplus on the current transfers account will increase as donor aid flows continue to rise following the transition to elected civilian government. Largely as a consequence of the shrinking trade deficit, we forecast that the current-account deficit will narrow from an estimated 26.3% of GDP in 2012 to 23.9% of GDP in 2013 and 21% of GDP in 2014. These deficits should be financed by strong inflows of foreign direct investment on the capital account, particularly to the mining sector, and concessional loans from multilateral lenders.

  October 31, 2012

View detailed map

Country Briefing

Land area

1,267,000 sq km

Population

16.4m (2011; UN estimate)

Main towns

Population ('000; 2012 World Gazetteer estimates):

Niamey (capital): 1,059

Zinder: 254

Maradi: 188

Arlit: 129

Agadez: 119

Tahoua: 110

Climate

Arid tropical; rainy season May-September

Weather in Niamey (216 metres above sea level)

Hottest month, May, 27-41oC; coldest month, January, 14-34oC; driest month, December, 0 mm average rainfall; wettest month, August, 188 mm average rainfall

Languages

French, Hausa, Djerma, Fulfuldé, Tamasheq and others

Measures

Metric system, traditional measures

Currency

CFA franc (franc de la Communauté financière africaine, the common currency of the Union économique et monétaire ouest-africaine); fixed to the euro at CFAfr655.957:EUR1

Time

One hour ahead of GMT

Public holidays

Fixed: January 1st, April 24th (National Concord Day), May 1st (Labour Day), August 3rd (Independence Day), December 18th (Republic Day), December 25th (Christmas Day)

Movable: Tabaski, Easter Monday, Mouloud, Leilat al-Qadr, Eid al-Fitr

August 01, 2012