Namibia

Politics:

• Analysis

  Namibia politics: Quick View - No clear front-runner to succeed Mr Pohamba

  Event

  The election for the vice-presidency of the ruling South West Africa People's Organisation (SWAPO), due later this month at the party's congress, will be tightly contested.

  Analysis

  The results of the election will be crucial, as the winner will become SWAPO's presidential candidate in the November 2014 election and-given the party's overwhelming dominance of the political scene-Namibia's next head of state.

  At present the incumbent vice-president, Hage Geingob, appears to have the best prospects, although only by a small margin. He is the favoured candidate of the president, Hifikepunye Pohamba, and has the support of most of the cabinet. If elected, Mr Geingob, who comes from the minority Damara community, would be Namibia's first non-northern head of state. This prospect has enthused those within the party who think it is time for a change, but will do little to win him support amongst northern voters, who form the majority of SWAPO's membership. Without some northern support, Mr Geingob, who many also view as arrogant and too pro-business, may fall short.

  The second contender for the post is Pendukeni Ivula-Ithana, the current SWAPO secretary-general and justice minister-a formidable politician who is widely known as SWAPO's "Iron Lady". In late October the SWAPO central committee accepted the nomination of the regional and local government minister, Jerry Ekandjo, as the third candidate for the post. This has thrown the race wide open. Both Ms Ivula-Ithana and Mr Ekandjo are northerners and could spilt the northern vote between them, thus handing victory to Mr Geingob. Another key factor will be the position of Namibia's former head of state, Sam Nujoma, who remains a powerful influence within the party, although he may not make his preference known publicly.

  A win for Mr Geingob would guarantee the continuation of Mr Pohamba's broadly pro-business approach and be welcomed by foreign investors. Ms Ivula-Ithana is more of an unknown quantity but would probably not deviate much from current policies. A win for Mr Ekandjo would create uncertainty for investors. He is backed by the SWAPO Youth League (SYL), whose secretary, Elijah Ngurare, nominated him. He might embrace the radical policies espoused by the SYL, including faster land redistribution, more state intervention in the mining sector and a more radical black economic empowerment policy.

  November 09, 2012

• Background

  Namibia: Political forces

  Election results, Nov 2004
  	‘000 votes	% of total	Seats won
  Presidential
  Hifikepunye Pohamba (SWAPO)	626	76.4	–
  Ben Ulenga (CoD)	60	7.3	–
  Katuutire Kaura (DTA)	42	5.1	–
  Kuaima Riruako (NUDO)	35	4.2	–
  Justus Garoeb (UDF)	31	3.8	–
  Henk Mudge (RP)	16	1.9	–
  Kosie Pretorius (MAG)	9	1.1	–
  Total	818	100.0	–
  National Assembly
  South West Africa People's Organisation (SWAPO)	619	76.1	55
  Congress of Democrats (CoD)	59	7.3	5
  Democratic Turnhalle Alliance (DTA)	42	5.1	4
  National Unity Democratic Organisation (NUDO)	34	4.2	3
  United Democratic Front (UDF)	29	3.6	3
  Republican Party (RP)	16	2.0	1
  Monitor Action Group (MAG)	7	0.9	1
  Others	8	0.9	0
  Total	814	100.0	72
  Sources: Directorate of Elections; The Namibian.

  Download text file (csv format)

  September 11, 2008

• Structure

  Namibia: Political structure

  Official name

  Republic of Namibia

  Form of state

  Unitary republic

  Legal system

  Based on the constitution of 1990 and Roman-Dutch law

  National legislature

  Bicameral; National Assembly, with 72 members elected by universal suffrage and serving a five-year term, and up to six non-voting members appointed by the president; National Council, with limited powers of review and 26 members, two of whom are nominated by each of the country's 13 regional councils, serving a six-year term

  National elections

  November 2009 (legislative and presidential); next elections due in November 2014

  Head of state

  Hifikepunye Pohamba, elected president by universal suffrage in November 2009

  National government

  President and his appointed cabinet; reshuffled in March 2010

  Main political parties

  South West Africa People's Organisation (SWAPO), the ruling party (54 of the elected seats in the National Assembly); Rally for Democracy and Progress (RDP; 8 seats); Democratic Turnhalle Alliance (DTA; 2 seats); National Unity Democratic Organisation (NUDO; 2 seats); United Democratic Front (UDF; 2 seats); Congress of Democrats (CoD; 1 seat); Republican Party (RP; 1 seat); All People's Party (APP; 1 seat); South West Africa National Union (SWANU; 1 seat); Monitor Action Group (MAG)

  Prime minister: Nahas Angula

  Deputy prime minister: Marco Hausiku

  Cabinet ministers

  Agriculture, water & forestry: John Mutorwa

  Defence: Charles Namoloh

  Education: Abraham Iyambo

  Environment & tourism: Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah

  Finance: Saara Kuugongelwa-Amadhila

  Fisheries & marine resources: Bernard Esau

  Foreign affairs: Utoni Nujoma

  Gender equality & child welfare: Doreen Sioka

  Health & social services: Richard Kamwi

  Home affairs & immigration: Rosalia Nghidinwa

  Information & communication technology: Joel Kaapanda

  Justice: Pendukeni Iivula-Ithana

  Labour & social welfare: Immanuel Ngatjizeko

  Lands & resettlement: Alpheus Naruseb

  Mines & energy: Isak Katali

  National Planning Commission: Tom Alweendo

  Presidential affairs & attorney-general: Albert Kawana

  Regional & local government, housing & rural development: Jerry Ekandjo

  Safety & security: Nangolo Mbumba

  Speaker of parliament: Theo-Ben Gurirab

  Trade & industry: Hage Geingob

  Veterans' affairs: Nickey Iyambo

  Works & transport: Erkki Nghimtina

  Youth, national service, sport & culture: Kazenambo Kazenambo

  Governor of the central bank

  Ipumbu Shiimi

  November 20, 2012

• Outlook

  Namibia: Key developments

  Outlook for 2013-17

  • The South West Africa People's Organisation (SWAPO), which has governed Namibia since the country gained independence in 1990, will dominate the political scene throughout the forecast period.
  • Political stability is likely to be maintained regardless of who becomes SWAPO's candidate for the 2014 presidential election (and thus who succeeds Hifikepunye Pohamba), but prospects for policy continuity are less certain.
  • The fiscal deficit is forecast to narrow to an average of 4.3% of GDP in 2012/13-2014/15, and to turn into a modest surplus in 2017/18, as public spending is restrained to prevent fiscal indicators from breaching official targets.
  • Real GDP growth is forecast to pick up from 4.6% in 2013 to an average of 5.6% in 2014-16, before moderating to 4.9% in 2017, driven by trends in the mining sector.
  • Inflation is forecast to moderate to an average of 4.8% in 2013-14, before edging up into the 5-5.6% range in 2015-17 driven by commodity prices and inflationary trends in South Africa-the source of most of Namibia's imports.
  • Modest deficits are expected on the current account in 2013 and 2014 as investment in the new mines boosts imports of capital goods, although rapid export growth is expected to tip the current account into surplus from 2015.

  Review

  • This is still no clear frontrunner to be named SWAPO's next presidential candidate (and therefore to succeed Mr Pohamba as Namibia's next president) at the ruling party's congress, due to begin in late November.
  • In early October Mr Pohamba helped broker a compromise wage settlement between unions and the management of the state-owned transport parastatal, TransNamib, which narrowly averted a nationwide transport strike.
  • The central bank followed the lead of its South African counterpart and cut its repurchase rate to 5.5% in August as global economic uncertainty and lower commodity prices continued to weigh on Namibia's economic performance.
  • France's Areva has decided to delay the commissioning of its Trekkopje mine until uranium prices recover, and the new Chinese owners of the Husab uranium project have committed to developing a large mine by 2015.
  • New official figures have put unemployment at 34%, compared with the previous estimate of 51%, which had been largely discredited.
  • Inflationary trends have diverged from those in South Africa over the past month, driven by a sharp rise in global maize and wheat prices, which pushed Namibia's inflation up to 6.7% in September.

  November 20, 2012

Economy:

• Background

  Namibia: Population

  Population
  	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007
  Population (m)	1.98	2.01	2.03	2.05	2.07
  Population (% change)	1.16	1.17	1.08	1.03	0.97
  Source: US Bureau of the Census.

  Download text file (csv format)

  • Population growth is falling. At the 2001 census Namibia's population stood at 1.83m, having grown at an average annual rate of 2.5% since the census ten years previously. In the five years since 2002, under the impact of HIV/AIDS, the population growth rate has averaged 1.2%. The HIV prevalence rate in Namibia is around 20%, a rate exceeded only by Swaziland, Botswana and Lesotho; as a result, life expectancy fell from 63 years in 1990 to 47 in 2005—over 30% of Namibians are not expected to live to the age of 40. Namibia has a low average population density of 2.5 per sq km (compared with an average in Sub-Saharan Africa of 28 per sq km) and an average household size of 5.1 persons, according to the 2001 census. An estimated 42% of Namibians are younger than 15 years.
  • The population is still predominantly rural. Nearly 65% of the population live in non-urban areas, compared with 72% in 1990. In 2001 there were only 16 towns with a population of more than 10,000. North-central Namibia, where a large part of the population are subsistence farmers on communal land, is the most populous area of the country; the four regions of Ohangwena, Omusati, Oshana and Oshikoto had 780,000 inhabitants in 2001—43% of the total population on just 7% of the land area of the country. Oshana, which includes the towns of Ondangwa, Ongwediva and Oshakati, is Namibia's most densely populated region. Khomas region, which was the third-most populous region in 1991, is now the most highly populated, with 250,000 inhabitants. Much of this growth is the result of migration from the countryside—around 600 arrive in the capital, Windhoek, and its surrounding area every month, placing housing and basic services under growing pressure.
  • Half the population are Ovambo. Nearly 80% of Namibians belong to one of five tribal groups: Ovambo, Nama, Damara, Kavango and Herero. The heartland of the Ovambo, who make up 50% of the population, are the four north-central regions, although they also make up a high proportion of urban dwellers throughout the country, following the settlement of migrant workers in towns. The Nama speak a Khoisan click language originating in South Africa's northern Cape region. It is the main indigenous language in southern Namibia and is also spoken by the Damara; together they make up about 12% of the population. The Kavango and Herero account for 9% and 8% of the population respectively. Around 6% of the population are white. Of these, the majority are Afrikaners, but 30,000 Namibians are the descendants of German settlers from before the first world war; the rest are mainly English-speaking, primarily of South African origin. About 7% are "coloureds"—of mixed African-European descent. The only other two groups of any size are the Caprivians, who are related to the Lozi of western Zambia, and the Bushmen, or San.
  • English, the official language of Namibia, is the predominant language in government and business. However, it is the first language of only 1-2% of the population and is spoken fluently by only about 15% of Namibians, although the proportion has risen since independence, as English is the main medium of instruction in most schools. Afrikaans is still widely spoken, especially by older Namibians, although it has no official status. It is the first language of 10% of the population, including coloureds. There is a small, long-settled Portuguese community, and since independence a substantial Chinese community has developed, estimated to number around 10,000 and mainly active in the construction and retail sectors.

  September 11, 2008

• Structure

  Namibia: Economic structure

  Data and charts: Annual trends charts

  
  

  

  November 20, 2012

• Outlook

  Namibia: Country outlook

  Namibia: Country outlook

  FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT

  POLITICAL STABILITY: The South West Africa People's Organisation (SWAPO), which has governed Namibia since the country achieved independence in 1990, will continue to dominate the political scene. Whoever is elected as the party's vice-president at the SWAPO elective congress in late 2012 will automatically be its candidate at the November 2014 presidential election, as Hifikepunye Pohamba will stand down when his second and constitutionally stipulated final term as president ends. SWAPO's current vice-president, the trade and industry minister, Hage Geingob, is the narrow favourite to succeed Mr Pohamba, but he will face a strong challenge from SWAPO's secretary-general, Pendukeni Iivula-Ithana, as well as the regional and local government minister, Jerry Ekandjo. The backing of SWAPO's dominant Nujomaist faction, loyal to Namibia's founding president, Sam Nujoma, is likely to be crucial to the rival contenders' prospects, although it is unclear who will receive it. If Mr Pohamba stands down before the election--his health has been the subject of rumours--the prime minister, Nahas Angula, would take over as interim president. This could change the likely outcome of the succession battle within SWAPO, especially as Mr Pohamba has reportedly urged Mr Angula, so far without success, to stand for the vice-presidency.

  ELECTION WATCH: SWAPO retained control of most authorities in the regional and local elections in November 2010, although voter turnout was only 38%--the lowest ever in a nationwide poll. The party is almost certain to keep hold of the presidency (Mr Pohamba won 75% of the vote at the last election) and its current parliamentary majority at the next elections, due in November 2014. Even if the main opposition parties manage to form an electoral pact before then--of which there is currently little sign--this would do little to weaken SWAPO's hegemony at the national level; under the party-list system used in national elections, each party is allocated seats in proportion to its share of the national vote, so an opposition alliance would be unlikely to have much success unless it were able to cut into SWAPO's vote in its northern, Oshivambo-speaking heartland and in major towns. However, it could have some impact at the regional/local level.

  INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS: Namibia is not expected to face any external threats over the forecast period. The expansion of economic ties with other countries in the region--notably Angola, Zambia and South Africa--will remain a priority. Relations with Western trading partners are expected to stay amicable. An economic partnership agreement with the EU is likely to be signed over the next two years, without which Namibia would risk losing duty-free access to the main market for its substantial beef and fish exports. Political and economic links with Brazil, Russia, India and China will expand further; all are keen to gain access to Namibia's natural resources. Namibia opposed the UN Security Council-approved NATO intervention in Libya and, for historical reasons, will continue to align itself with China and Russia in international disputes.

  POLICY TRENDS: Broad policy continuity is expected in 2012-16. Unemployment, which is now officially estimated at 34% (down from a previous estimate of 51%, which had been largely discredited), is expected to decline slightly as the public job-creation programme is implemented, although the government has yet to clarify how it plans to pursue its objective of promoting job creation in the private sector. The fourth national development plan (NDP4; 2012/13-2016/17) prioritises measures to reduce poverty and income inequality and also incorporates the provisions of a new industrialisation policy that focuses on agro-processing, mineral beneficiation and import-substituting industries. Policy interventions will also be guided by a BEE law, the New Equitable Economic Empowerment Framework (NEEEF), which is due to be enacted shortly. Firms operating in Namibia will need to comply with several "empowerment pillars", although the current draft does not specify minimum equity shareholdings for BEE entities. Most firms appear relaxed about the prospect, provided that any equity transfers are on commercial terms--something to which the government has committed itself. The private sector has urged the government to widen the NEEEF's focus to include the development of entrepreneurship and skills. Some of its proposals are likely to be taken on board, but the general thrust of the policy, including the focus on ownership transfers, is unlikely to change dramatically.

  ECONOMIC GROWTH: We estimate that real GDP growth will have moderated to 3.8% in 2012 as a result of fragile agricultural output, slower public spending growth and weaker external demand. It is forecast to pick up to 4.6% in 2013 as lower inflation supports domestic demand, mining investments expand and Namdeb--a joint venture between the government and De Beers--increases diamond output to more than 1.5m carats a year (from 1.3m carats in 2011) through investment in onshore mining capacity. A more robust expansion is expected in 2014-16 as major mining projects come on stream. The onset of production at the Husab uranium mine in the second half of 2014 is expected to raise Namibia's uranium output by over 50%. The development of the Trekkopje mine, owned by Areva, the French nuclear energy group, has been put on hold as unfavourable uranium prices, combined with low ore grades at the mine, have made the project unattractive. We now expect that production at Trekkopje will begin in 2015 (previously 2014) as emerging tightness in the uranium market gives some support to prices. In line with this, we have marginally lowered our growth forecast for 2014 and raised it for 2015. In 2015 export growth will also be boosted by the scaling up of production at Husab and the onset of production at the Etango mine. Collectively, these developments are expected to lead to a doubling of Namibia's uranium production in 2015. This will also spur faster growth in manufacturing, because of the impetus it will provide to downstream activities such as the production of industrial chemicals. Overall, growth is forecast to pick up to 5.1% in 2014 and 6.4% in 2015, before moderating to 5.3% in 2016 and 4.9% by 2017 as export growth slows. Growth would be lower if the euro zone were to collapse (leading to commodity price volatility), the onset of production at Etango were delayed or the Trekkopje project were abandoned completely.

  INFLATION: Inflation in South Africa will return to the 4-5% range in 2013-15, helped by more stable commodity prices, subdued economic growth, stricter competition policy and efficiency gains arising from infrastructure investment. Owing to ongoing wage rises, a tight labour market and rising fuel prices, inflation will rise to the 5-6% range in 2016-17. In line with this, we expect inflation in Namibia to moderate from an estimated 6.4% in 2012 to an average of 4.8% in 2013-14, before edging up into the 5-5.6% range in 2015-17.

  EXCHANGE RATES: The South African rand--to which the Namibia dollar will remain pegged at parity--is expected to move within the R8-8.5:US$1 range during the remainder of 2012, despite inevitable daily volatility, provided that the euro zone debt crisis does not spiral out of control. We continue to forecast gradual rand depreciation in 2013-17 because of South Africa's persistent current-account deficit, relatively high inflation and political uncertainty surrounding the 2014 election. A significant threat to currency stability continues to come from the volatile nature of foreign portfolio investment--a vital component in financing the current-account deficit. We expect the rand to decline from an estimated average of R8.18:US$1 in 2012 to R8.42:US$1 in 2013. Thereafter, it will drift to R9.33:US$1 in 2017, although exogenous shocks or unwelcome policy shifts could lead to a faster decline.

  EXTERNAL SECTOR: Further substantial trade deficits are forecast in 2013-14 as investment in the new mines continues to boost imports of capital goods. In 2015 the deficit is expected to fall sharply because of faster export growth as production begins at the Trekkopje and Etango uranium mines, and as import growth slows following the completion of major mining projects. The surplus on the services account is forecast to decline steadily as growth in tourist arrivals is offset by increased freight costs. The income deficit is expected to widen because of higher profit remittances, mostly by mining companies (apart from in 2013, when increased development costs will lead to a smaller share of mining profits being repatriated). The current transfers surplus is expected to widen slowly, driven primarily by SACU receipts. Overall, strong export growth is expected to push the current account into a surplus of 3.7% of GDP in 2015 from an average deficit of 0.7% of GDP over the previous two years. The surplus is expected to contract to 0.5% of GDP in 2017 as export growth slows. The main risk to the forecast is that the expected, medium-term recovery in global uranium prices may not take place, leading to the abandonment of the Trekkopje uranium project, which is particularly vulnerable to such a decline as ore grades at the mine are very low.

  November 20, 2012

• Forecast

  Namibia: 5-year forecast summary

  Outlook for 2012-16: Forecast summary

  Forecast summary
  (% unless otherwise indicated)
  	2011a	2012b	2013b	2014b	2015b	2016b
  Real GDP growth	4.9	4.0	4.6	5.5	6.1	5.3
  Gross agricultural production growth	7.7	0.6	1.8	1.7	1.9	2.3
  Consumer price inflation (av)	5.0	5.8	4.6	5.0	5.2	5.2
  Consumer price inflation (end-period)	7.2	5.0	4.0	5.7	5.0	5.4
  Lending rate (av)	8.7	9.2	10.0	9.5	10.2	10.0
  Government balance (% of GDP)c	-9.7d	-4.6	-5.5	-2.6	-1.2	0.1
  Exports of goods fob (US$ m)	4,393d	4,657	4,980	5,883	6,971	7,294
  Imports of goods fob (US$ m)	-5,345d	-5,762	-6,252	-6,702	-7,137	-7,494
  Current-account balance (US$ m)	-108d	49	-111	225	558	447
  Current-account balance (% of GDP)	-0.9d	0.4	-0.8	1.5	3.5	2.6
  External debt (year-end; US$ m)	3,944d	4,204	4,331	4,547	4,585	4,614
  Exchange rate N$:US$ (av)	7.26	7.90	8.17	8.25	8.55	8.95
  Exchange rate N$:¥100 (av)	9.10	9.97	9.84	9.51	9.61	9.70
  Exchange rate N$:€ (end-period)	10.45	9.83	10.37	10.37	10.92	11.44
  Exchange rate N$:SDR (end-period)	12.65	11.78	12.51	12.58	13.06	13.60
  a Actual. b Economist Intelligence Unit forecasts. c Fiscal years beginning April 1st. d Economist Intelligence Unit estimates.

  Download the numbers in Excel

  Download text file (csv format)

  August 01, 2012

View detailed map

Country Briefing

Land area

824,269 sq km

Population

2.31m (2012 World Gazetteer estimate)

Main towns

Population ('000; 2012 World Gazetteer estimates)

Windhoek (capital): 334.6

Rundu: 96.9

Walvis Bay: 74.1

Swakopmund: 35.7

Oshakati: 35.1

Katima Mulilo: 28.7

Grootfontein: 20.5

Climate

Semi-arid and subtropical

Weather in Windhoek (altitude 1,833 metres)

Hottest months, January and February, 17-39°C (daily minimum and maximum); coldest months, June and July, 6-20°C; driest month, July, 1 mm average rainfall; wettest month, January, 350 mm average rainfall

Languages

English (official), Oshivambo (various dialects), Nama-Damara, Afrikaans, Herero, Rukavango, Lozi, German, Tswana and several Bushman (San) dialects

Measures

Metric system

Fiscal year

April 1st-March 31st

Currency

Namibia dollar (N$) = 100 cents; introduced in September 1993, pegged at parity with the South African rand

Time

2 hours ahead of GMT

Public holidays

January 1st, March 21st (Independence Day), Good Friday, Easter Monday, May 1st (Workers' Day), May 4th (Cassinga Day), Ascension Day, May 25th (Africa Day), August 26th (Heroes' Day), December 10th (Human Rights Day), December 25th and 26th (Christmas Day and Family Day)

March 23, 2012