Malaysia remains on tenterhooks, waiting for the date of the next parliamentary poll to be announced. The country's 13th general election will see the cash-strapped opposition alliance, the Pakatan Rakyat (PR), pitted against the well-oiled political machine of the ruling Barisan Nasional (BN) coalition. The BN is well positioned to win the election, but what really matters is the margin of its victory, which is harder to predict. The least favourable outcome would be a hung parliament, which would have a detrimental effect on policymaking.
The prime minister, Najib Razak, will set a new political record when he calls the next election, which must be held by June 2013. Mr Najib will become the first leader of the United Malays National Organisation (UMNO, the dominant party in the BN) to have led a government for a full term of office. In recent decades leaders of UMNO, who have automatically become prime minister, have tended to call an election when they were sure of securing a large win, usually about a year before the end of the government's term. As a result, Malaysia has been in a state of electoral preparedness for the past two years.
Reason to delay
There is more than one explanation for the change in electoral tactics this time. The huge public outcry against the heavy-handed tactics that the government has used to silence critics who have called for electoral reform is one reason why no election was called in 2011 or 2012. Another could be the prime minister's desire to strengthen the BN's support base in order to increase its chances of winning back control of the state assemblies in Kedah, Penang, and especially Selangor (the state where the capital, Kuala Lumpur, and the federal government are located), which it lost to the opposition during the last national elections in 2008. (Elections to state assemblies, with the exception of Sarawak's, usually coincide with national parliamentary polls.) Regaining control of these state assemblies would help Mr Najib to strengthen his standing within UMNO and the BN.
The most important reason for the delay in announcing the election, however, has been Mr Najib's hope that his ambitious programme of economic and social reform will resonate with enough sections of Malaysia's diverse population to give him a landslide victory by the time of the next election. For the moment, he may have the support of Malays (the indigenous ethnic group that makes up the majority of the population), but there is still some way to go before the prime minister wins over one crucial ethnic minority, the Chinese, who make up around one-quarter of the electorate and are hugely influential in Malaysia's economy.
Polls apart
In the lead-up to election day, the government will no doubt highlight its record of having steered a relatively successful course for Malaysia's economy against a backdrop of weak external demand. Despite the good health of the domestic economy, however, recent opinion polls conducted by a local research group, the Merdeka Centre, suggest that Mr Najib and the BN government have a lot more work to do to secure the two-thirds majority that they crave at the next election. In a survey conducted in February, Mr Najib's approval rating as prime minister was relatively high, at 61%, with the highest level of support coming from the Malay and ethnic-Indian communities, suggesting that these sections of society are largely in favour of his reform programme.
However, when asked for their view of the BN government, more than two-thirds of ethnic-Chinese respondents expressed dissatisfaction with its performance. The Chinese community holds the greatest proportion of wealth in Malaysia and is in favour of rolling back policies favouring the bumiputera (ethnic Malays and other indigenous peoples), but it has been unimpressed with the pace of reforms and has begun to doubt Mr Najib's commitment to change. Nationally, the Chinese community accounts for some 24% of the population, but it makes up a much larger share in some state and federal parliamentary constituencies. Given that every seat in the national legislature is likely to be hotly contested by the BN and the PR, the government will need to pledge to do more on the reform front if it is to increase its support among the ethnic-Chinese and -Indian communities, or even to retain the parliamentary seats that it currently holds.
Parliamentary arithmetic
At present, the BN governs with a simple majority, commanding 135 seats out of 222 in the national parliament. Although the fairly slender size of this margin has not stopped Mr Najib from pushing through key legislation so far, he is determined to secure a two-thirds majority at the next poll, thereby restoring the BN to the position of greater dominance that it enjoyed almost uninterrupted between 1969 and 2008.
To emerge with a two-thirds majority, the BN will need to win 12 additional seats. This would help the prime minister to expedite the implementation of his two flagship programmes, one aimed at improving delivery of government services and the other at driving economic growth. Despite the propaganda that has trumpeted the progress made so far, the government has faced a number of setbacks, including a two-year delay to its subsidy-rationalisation programme and only limited progress on rolling back pro-bumiputera policies. Part of the reason for the latter difficulty has been the fact that Mr Najib has felt obliged to try to appease conservative Malay elements within his party who are unhappy with his market reform agenda and would prefer to retain policies favouring ethnic Malays.
Hung parliament
The stakes are high at the coming national election for both political alliances. A two-thirds majority would strengthen Mr Najib's position within UMNO and the BN, and would help him to move ahead on his economic reform plans. Should the BN perform unimpressively, this would undermine Mr Najib's authority and open the way for the deputy prime minister, Muhyiddin Yassin, to challenge him for the leadership in the party elections due later this year. The PR, meanwhile, will need to win by a large margin if it is to break UMNO's decades-long grip on power. The most unfavourable outcome for Malaysia would be a situation in which neither alliance secures outright victory. Under this scenario, a fierce battle to persuade lawmakers to switch sides would ensue as each alliance attempted to secure sufficient parliamentary representation to enable it to form the next government.
A hung parliament would be damaging for policymaking, and could result in sustained periods of parliamentary deadlock. There is no tradition of consensual politics in Malaysia, and none is likely to emerge, given the wide ideological differences between the two coalitions. Moreover, under such circumstances all the main parties would be likely to accord a lower priority to policymaking.
March 25, 2013
Political outlook: Political forces at a glance
Present government: the Barisan Nasional (BN) governs with a simple parliamentary majority, which allows it to pass the bulk of legislation unchallenged. However, a two-thirds majority is needed to amend the constitution. The prime minister, Najib Razak, will continue to pursue a strategy aimed at restoring public confidence in the BN and winning back the seats in state assemblies and the national parliament that the coalition lost at the general election in March 2008. The BN's 14-party coalition-the main component of which is the United Malays National Organisation (UMNO)-currently holds 137 of the 222 seats in parliament. The opposition Pakatan Rakyat (PR) comprises Parti Islam se-Malaysia (PAS), the Democratic Action Party (DAP) and Parti Keadilan Rakyat (PKR). Parti Sosialis Malaysia (PSM) remains an independent political party but won one parliamentary seat in the 2008 general poll under the banner of the PKR. Owing to the decision of a handful of opposition members of parliament (MPs) to serve as independents, the PR, including PSM, currently holds 75 seats, six less than after the 2008 election.
| Parliamentary forces, Sep 2012 | |
| (no. of seats) | |
| Barisan Nasional | 137 |
| United Malays National Organisation (UMNO) | 78 |
| Malaysian Chinese Association (MCA) | 15 |
| Parti Pesaka Bumiputera Bersatu (PBB) | 14 |
| Parti Rakyat Sarawak (PRS) | 6 |
| Sarawak United Peoples' Party (SUPP) | 5 |
| Sarawak Progressive Democratic Party (SPDP) | 4 |
| United Pasok Momogun Kadazandusum Organisation (UPKO) | 4 |
| Malaysian Indian Congress (MIC) | 4 |
| Parti Bersatu Sabah (PBS) | 3 |
| Gerakan Rakyat Malaysia (GRM) | 2 |
| Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) | 1 |
| Parti Bersatu Rakyat Sabah (PBRS) | 1 |
| Pakatan Rakyat | 75 |
| Democratic Action Party (DAP) | 29 |
| Parti Keadilan Rakyat (PKR) | 23 |
| Parti Islam se-Malaysia (PAS) | 22 |
| Parti Sosialis Malaysia (PSM) | 1 |
| Independent | 9 |
| Vacant | 1 |
| Total | 222 |
| Sources: Economist Intelligence Unit; Malaysia parliament. | |
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Next elections: The next general election must be held by March 2013.
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July 27, 2012
Official name
Federation of Malaysia
Form of state
Federated constitutional monarchy
The executive
The king appoints a prime minister and, on the prime minister's advice, the cabinet
Head of state
The yang di-pertuan agong (king or supreme sovereign), elected by and from among the nine hereditary rulers of Malaysia's states. In practice the post is rotated every five years
National legislature
Bicameral federal parliament. The Senate (Dewan Negara, the upper house) has 70 members—26 elected from the state legislatures, and 44 appointed by the king. The House of Representatives (Dewan Rakyat, the lower house) has 222 directly elected members. Senators serve six-year terms and members of the lower house five-year terms
State governments
There are state governments in each of Malaysia's 13 states, in nine of which the head of state is a hereditary ruler. Each state has its own constitution, a council of state or cabinet with executive authority and a legislature that deals with matters not reserved to the federal parliament. There are also three federal territories, namely Kuala Lumpur, Labuan and Putrajaya
National elections
A general election took place in March 2008. The next poll must be held by mid-2013
National government
The Barisan Nasional (BN), the governing 13-party coalition—the main element of which is the United Malays National Organisation (UMNO)—holds 135 of the 222 seats in the lower house. The BN has the simple majority that it needs in order to pass legislation but not the two-thirds majority that would enable it to amend the constitution
Main political organisations
Government—the main parties in the BN are UMNO, the Malaysian Chinese Association (MCA), the Malaysian Indian Congress (MIC), Parti Gerakan Rakyat Malaysia (Gerakan), Parti Pesaka Bumiputera Bersatu (PPBB) and the Sarawak United People's Party (SUPP). Opposition—the three founding parties in the Pakatan Rakyat (PR) alliance are Parti Islam se-Malaysia (PAS), the Democratic Action Party (DAP) and Parti Keadilan Rakyat (PKR)
Key ministers
Prime minister & finance minister: Najib Razak
Deputy prime minister & education minister: Muhyiddin Yassin
Agriculture: Noh Omar
Defence: Ahmad Zahid Hamidi
Domestic trade, co-operation & consumer affairs: Ismail Sabri Yaakob
Energy, green technology & water: Peter Chin Fah Kui
Foreign affairs: Anifah Aman
Health: Liow Tiong Lai
Home affairs: Hishammuddin Hussein
Housing & local government: Chor Chee Heung
Information: Rais Yatim
International trade & industry: Mustapa Mohamed
Public works: Shaziman Abu Mansor
Science, technology & innovation: Maximus Ongkili
Second finance minister: Ahmad Husni Hanadzlah
Tourism: Ng Yen Yen
Transport: Kong Cho Ha
Central bank governor
Zeti Akhtar Aziz
March 14, 2013
Outlook for 2013-17
Review
March 14, 2013
Fact sheet
| Annual data | 2012 | Historical averages (%) | 2008-12 |
| Population (m) | 29.3 | Population growth | 1.5 |
| GDP (US$ m; market exchange rate) | 303,525 | Real GDP growth | 4.2 |
| GDP (US$ m; purchasing power parity) | 499,335 | Real domestic demand growth | 6.6 |
| GDP per head (US$; market exchange rate) | 10,346 | Inflation | 2.5 |
| GDP per head (US$; purchasing power parity) | 17,021 | Current-account balance (% of GDP) | 12.6 |
| Exchange rate (av) M$:US$ | 3.09 | FDI inflows (% of GDP) | 3.0 |
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Background: After the second world war and the end of Japanese occupation, the United Malays National Organisation (UMNO) led a campaign for independence from Great Britain. Malaya gained independence in 1957 and the Federation of Malaysia was formed in 1963, including the Borneo states of Sabah and Sarawak, as well as Singapore (which left the federation in 1965). Following a fiercely contested general election in 1969, rioting broke out between Malays and ethnic Chinese. In the ensuing political crisis, the Alliance, which had ruled since independence and which consisted of UMNO, the Malaysian Chinese Association and the Malaysian Indian Congress, was replaced by a broader coalition, the Barisan Nasional (BN). With only minor changes in its composition, the coalition has ruled ever since.
Political structure: Malaysia's parliamentary democracy features an appointed upper house, the Senate, and an elected lower chamber, the House of Representatives. The prime minister, Najib Razak, heads the BN, of which UMNO is by far the largest component. Malaysia is a federation of 13 states, each of which has an assembly and a chief minister, and three federal territories, which are directly governed.
Policy issues: Following the mid-2013 general election, the next government is expected to announce additional incentives in a bid to attract more foreign direct investment. Further relaxation of the policy of treating bumiputera (ethnic Malays and other indigenous groups) more favourably than Chinese and Indian ethnic minorities is likely in 2013-17, but the policy will continue to apply in certain parts of the economy, such as education and government procurement. The next administration will attempt to accord a higher priority to fiscal consolidation.
Taxation: The current rate of corporation tax is 25%. Malaysia operates a progressive income tax system. The first M$2,500 (US$820) of earnings is untaxed, and income above this is subject to tax rates ranging from 1% to 27%, with the top rate applying to earnings in excess of M$250,000.
Foreign trade: In 2011 merchandise exports (on a balance-of-payments basis) totalled US$227.5bn and imports amounted to US$178.6bn, yielding a trade surplus of US$48.9bn.
| Major exports 2011 | % of total | Major imports 2011 | % of total |
| Machinery & transport equipment | 38.8 | Machinery & transport equipment | 44.6 |
| Mineral fuels | 17.7 | Manufactured goods | 13.1 |
| Manufactured goods | 9.4 | Mineral fuels | 11.8 |
| Chemicals | 6.7 | Chemicals | 9.4 |
| Leading markets 2011 | % of total | Leading suppliers 2011 | % of total |
| China | 20.3 | Singapore | 23.0 |
| Singapore | 14.5 | China | 15.3 |
| Japan | 11.2 | Japan | 11.2 |
| US | 9.7 | US | 8.8 |
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March 14, 2013
Data and charts: Annual trends charts
March 14, 2013
Malaysia: Country outlook
FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT
POLITICAL STABILITY: The Barisan Nasional (BN) coalition government's term ends in April. The Economist Intelligence Unit forecasts that the BN will maintain its hold on power throughout the forecast period, securing victory at the next general election, due in mid-2013. But we believe that it will not attain the two-thirds parliamentary majority that would allow it to make changes to the constitution unchallenged. A recent opinion poll showing strong dissatisfaction with the government among Malaysia's smaller ethnic communities highlights one of the main challenges facing the BN in its attempt to win a supermajority. Political stability in the coming five years will be determined largely by the levels of internal discipline within both the ruling BN and the main opposition Pakatan Rakyat (PR) alliance. The BN is tightly controlled by its largest constituent party, the United Malays National Organisation (UMNO). The results of the last general election, in 2008, revealed that UMNO could no longer count on the support of the majority of the country's ethnic Malays. However, the PR does not offer a sufficiently credible and stable alternative to the BN to give it a good chance of winning enough seats at the next election to enable it to form a government.
ELECTION WATCH: The next parliamentary election must be held by June 2013. Mr Najib is likely to make the strong performance of the economy a central plank of the BN's campaign. He will emphasise that the government's policies have helped to bolster domestic growth despite the gloomy global economic situation. The BN will also craft its campaign to appeal to voters in states in which it lost control of the local assemblies to the PR at the last elections in 2008. Mr Najib has worked hard to present himself as being committed to economic and social reform. However, this stance has yet to resonate with Malaysia's ethnic minorities, which make up around one-third of the electorate and most of whose members voted for the PR in the 2008 general election. The opposition alliance, meanwhile, is likely to focus its campaign on the need to uphold the political and economic rights and interests of all Malaysians. The election will see the cash-strapped PR pitted against the BN's well-oiled political machine. The BN is strongly positioned to win, although its likely margin of victory remains unclear.
INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS: Relations with Singapore have become closer in recent years, and we expect this trend to continue during the forecast period, particularly in the area of economic ties. The city state will remain one of Malaysia's largest trading partners, and vice versa. A proposed high-speed rail link connecting the city state with the capital, Kuala Lumpur, will bring economic benefits to both countries. China will become an increasingly important trade partner in 2013-17. Growth in Malaysia's trade with China is expected to accelerate, following the signing of a bilateral free-trade agreement in May 2012. The government's apprehension about China's growing economic influence is mixed with ambivalence towards the ethnic-Chinese members of Malaysia's population and an awareness of the need to attract investment. Mr Najib is keen to achieve a resolution of territorial disputes with China through dialogue under existing regional security mechanisms, although the Chinese government prefers to deal with such issues on a bilateral basis. Malaysia also wishes to strengthen its trade links with other countries in the region. Trade ties are expected to deepen as a result of Malaysia's membership of the Association of South-East Asian Nations (ASEAN), which signed a free-trade deal with India in December.
POLICY TRENDS: Assuming that the BN wins the mid-2013 general election, as we expect, the government's policy agenda over the next five years will centre on a host of initiatives outlined in two road maps that are aimed at raising income levels and transforming Malaysia into a high-income country by 2020. (High-income countries are defined by the World Bank as those with gross national income per head of at least US$12,475 based on 2011 data. Malaysia's income per head stood at US$8,770 in that year.) One of the two plans is the Government Transformation Programme, which outlines seven main initiatives, including tackling corruption, improving education and upgrading rural infrastructure. The other is the Economic Transformation Programme, which identifies 12 national economic sectors that the government believes have the greatest potential to boost economic growth. One element of the programme is a plan to construct the country's first nuclear power plant by 2020. The Tenth Malaysia Plan, a public spending plan for 2011-15, will support the implementation of these programmes.
ECONOMIC GROWTH: The economy is expected to remain on a broadly steady growth path in 2013-17. Economic expansion will decelerate slightly in 2013, to 4.6%, from 5.6% in 2012. The forecast slowdown in growth this year will partly reflect a return to trend for gross fixed investment, which surged in 2012 as a number of large infrastructure projects commenced. In addition, the external sector will exert a drag overall growth, albeit less pronounced than in 2012, as Malaysian exporters will struggle to increase sales significantly this year. However, economic expansion in 2013 will be supported by private consumption, itself underpinned by one-off state payments to various socioeconomic groups and also by salary increases for Malaysia's 1.3m civil servants, who make up around 10% of the national workforce.
INFLATION: The expected strengthening of the ringgit against the US dollar, together with moderating global fuel and food prices, should help to contain inflationary pressures in Malaysia in 2013. However, the resumption of a fuel-subsidy rationalisation programme that was suspended last year is expected to push-up the headline rate of inflation to 2.2% in 2013, from 1.7% in 2012. Rises in domestic energy and fuel costs are nevertheless likely to occur only gradually. From 2014 another source of inflationary impetus will be the goods and services tax, which the government will attempt to introduce towards the end of 2013. One factor that will help to keep price rises in check in 2014-17 will be the forecast steady appreciation of the ringgit against the US dollar. Given that most of Malaysia's imports and exports are denominated in US dollars, imports will become cheaper in local-currency terms as a consequence of the increase in the value of the ringgit.
EXCHANGE RATES: We expect the ringgit to strengthen slightly against the US dollar this year, to an average of M$3.05:US$1. The upward trend in the local currency's value will largely reflect Malaysia's strong economic fundamentals compared with those of the US. This economic strength is expected to persist in the remainder of the forecast period, helping to push up the ringgit's value against the dollar to an annual average of M$2.82:US$1 by 2017. The central bank will maintain its current exchange-rate regime, under which the ringgit is subject to a managed float against a trade-weighted basket of currencies. Offshore trading of the ringgit is prohibited under a rule imposed in the wake of the 1997-98 Asian financial crisis. However, expected further progress towards regional economic integration makes it likely that Bank Negara Malaysia (the central bank) will allow the ringgit to be traded offshore in future, and possibly by 2017.
EXTERNAL SECTOR: At just 2.3%, merchandise export growth is forecast to stay sluggish in 2013 as economic activity in the euro zone, one of Malaysia's main export markets, remains feeble (the EU economy is forecast to stagnate for a second consecutive year in 2013). A gradual improvement in external conditions from the second half of this year is expected to boost overseas sales, as well as leading to an increase in Malaysian demand for imports of intermediate goods used in manufacturing for export. Merchandise import growth will also be supported by firm domestic demand in 2013, and the pace of expansion in imports in value terms will be faster than that in exports. Owing to a slight decline in the trade surplus and persistent deficits on the income and services accounts, the current-account surplus is expected to fall to the equivalent of 6.3% of GDP in 2013, from an estimated 8% in 2012. In 2014-17 the current-account surplus will hover around 6% of GDP.
March 08, 2013
Country forecast overview: Highlights
Country forecast overview: Key indicators
| Key indicators | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 |
| Real GDP growth (%) | 5.6 | 4.6 | 5.3 | 5.2 | 5.6 | 5.5 |
| Consumer price inflation (av; %) | 1.7 | 2.2 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 3.2 |
| Budget balance (% of GDP) | -4.7 | -4.1 | -4.1 | -4.0 | -3.9 | -3.7 |
| Current-account balance (% of GDP) | 8.0 | 6.3 | 5.8 | 6.4 | 6.0 | 6.0 |
| Lending rate (av; %) | 4.7 | 4.9 | 5.4 | 5.8 | 6.1 | 6.1 |
| Exchange rate M$:US$ (av) | 3.09 | 3.05 | 2.97 | 2.87 | 2.84 | 2.82 |
| Exchange rate M$:¥100 (av) | 3.86 | 3.29 | 3.14 | 2.98 | 2.92 | 2.92 |
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March 14, 2013
Total area
330,252 sq km
Population
29.3m (2012 mid-year government estimate)
Main towns
Population in '000 (2009):
Kuala Lumpur (capital): 1,655
Subang Jaya: 1,175
Klang: 1,004
Johor Baru: 868
Ampang Jaya: 724
Climate
Tropical
Weather in Kuala Lumpur (altitude 39 metres)
Hottest months, April and May, 23-33°C (average daily minimum and maximum); coldest month, December, 22-32°C; driest month, July, 99 mm average rainfall; wettest month, April, 292 mm average rainfall
Languages
Malay (the official language); other main languages: Chinese (Min Nan, Hakka, Mandarin and Min Dong), English, Tamil, Iban (in Sarawak), Banjar (in Sabah). There are 140 languages spoken in Malaysia (peninsular Malaysia 40, Sabah 54, Sarawak 46)
Measures
Malaysia uses the metric system, but some British weights and measures are still in use. Local measures include:
1 pikul = 25 gantang = 100 katis = 60.48 kg
1 koyan = 40 pikul = 2.419 tonnes
Currency
Ringgit or Malaysian dollar (M$ or RM); M$1 = 100 sen (cents). Average exchange rate in 2012: M$3.09:US$1
Time
Peninsular Malaysia: 7 hours ahead of GMT; Sabah and Sarawak: 8 hours ahead of GMT
Public holidays
January 1st (New Year's Day); January 24th (the Prophet Mohammed's birthday observance); February 10th-11th (Chinese New Year); May 1st (Labour Day); May 24th (Wesak Day); June 1st (the king's birthday); August 8th-9th (Hari Raya Puasa); August 31st (National Day); September 16th (Malaysia Day); October 15th (Hari Raya Haji); November 3rd (Deepavali); November 5th (Awal Muharram); December 25th (Christmas Day)
January 14, 2013